Transcript
Carter
0:01
It was the tale of two conventions, one on the heels of an unsuccessful assassination attempt, the other on the heels of a replacement coup.
Carter
0:11
One of the conventions featured muscle in the form of UFC president Dana White and washed up professional wrestler Hulk Hogan, while the second featured power performers like Pink, Stevie Wonder, John Legend, and the Chicks. Each
Carter
0:25
Each convention brought their own version of the power couples. The Trumps, although Molina really didn't show up. J.D. Vance and his couch. While
Carter
0:33
While the Democrats field couples like Bill and Hillary, Michelle and Barack, and Oprah Winfrey and Gayle.
Carter
0:40
The Republicans embraced the family. Don,
Carter
0:43
Don, Don Jr., Eric, Laura,
Carter
0:45
Laura, and Kimberly Guilfile. While the Democrats embraced family.
Carter
0:50
Tim Walz and his children especially gus mamala and dougie and jill ashley and joe biden did
Carter
0:57
did one convention win compared to the other only
Carter
1:00
only time will tell that's
Carter
1:01
that's the conventional summary of the conventions and this is
Carter
1:04
is you the people well
Corey
1:16
well that was stephen carter i'm cory hogan and today Today, I guess, Stephen, we are going to be talking about the DNC. Well, it
Carter
1:25
it was that or RFK's supposed leaving the race, but I've
Corey
1:30
I've not seen confirmation.
Corey
1:31
Put that on the rundown.
Corey
1:33
could spend a few minutes on RFK.
Carter
1:35
RFK. You've got RFK? Yeah, I mean, I
Carter
1:38
Did you get a chance to watch a lot of the speeches and stuff? I mean, there were only about 200 speeches, it
Carter
1:46
seemed like. So how many did you capture? Okay.
Corey
1:51
Also, let's add to the rundown, compare and contrast Canadian political conventions, because
Corey
1:55
there's some significant differences here, right?
Corey
2:00
caught a few. There's no way any normal human being who's not stuck to a hospital bed could catch all of a political convention. There's like a litany of them. They just go perpetually from sunup to sundown, it feels like. Like, I caught the big ones. I caught Kamala Harris. I caught clips of the ones that I, the big ones that I didn't fully catch. But I caught Joe Biden. I, yeah, a few of them. But no
Carter
2:26
no one can watch them all.
Carter
2:28
No one can watch them all. I
Corey
2:29
I watched Obama. I watched clips
Corey
2:32
clips of, of Walls. I actually didn't watch Walls' speech. I should have watched Walls' speech.
Carter
2:38
Yeah, I think that everybody's kind of got this regret that they didn't watch Walls' speech beach um because it had such an emotional ending and everybody i think has
Carter
2:45
seen the the tiktok slash youtube of gus just yeah that's
Corey
2:49
that's my dad you know full of pride for him really good as a father doesn't that like i there's a lot of like angry right-wing discourse that seems to be sneering at this young man but as a father wouldn't you be kind
Corey
3:01
kind of thrilled if that was your kid's reaction to like this great accomplishment of yours you
Carter
3:04
know heather heather watched it this morning and uh i mean just tears streaming down her face mostly because i think of disappointment in me me uh that
Corey
3:13
i haven't been able
Corey
3:13
vice president yeah or or candidate for i guess or or
Carter
3:18
or even just getting that's my dad from one of my children you know i mean there's
Corey
3:22
no you get more uh that's my dad yeah
Corey
3:25
you know like it's
Carter
3:25
it's a different energy it's
Carter
3:27
it's a different energy yeah for sure it's very upsetting yeah i mean i don't think anybody could watch all the speeches i mean and that is uh one one of the big differences i would imagine between uh the canadian and the uh and the uh american conventions first of all what's this monday to thursday thing like boy
Carter
3:46
boy talk about trying to convention you know plan your convention for prime time yeah
Corey
3:51
yeah we're more like thursday to sunday morning like thursday evenings the first events and then yeah
Corey
3:56
the drinking events friday saturday is the meat of it and then sunday maybe there's some governance to clean up that's more the canadian model yeah
Carter
4:03
yeah the new newly elected board uh yeah that's rums together on sunday morning while everybody else is cursing hangovers
Corey
4:10
the worst meeting yeah yeah
Corey
4:12
yeah uh fun times yeah
Corey
4:15
it's not just like that we shift it later into the week into the weekend it's
Corey
4:21
canadian convention doesn't have anywhere near that many speakers on like there's not a main stage that's just currently rocking through at any given moment like some speaker who's going going to be on cable and
Corey
4:31
you also don't have the entertainment component the way the americans do where all of a sudden out of nowhere t-pain might show up start singing yeah
Carter
4:41
that rake there's no drake dropping you know dropping a beat uh at the liberal convention you know it's just not going to happen no
Corey
4:47
no and you know actually i was in a group chat with a couple of politicos and we were trying to fantasy create what a canadian version of this convention would look like got to tell you it left me a little disappointed a little depressed i was about ready to uh google american citizenship how but um yeah
Carter
5:06
no it's it's it's a bit different it's uh very different i mean we
Corey
5:11
we laid more heart into the hospitality suites i think that's the canadian thing like we there's a there's a tighter convention and then we just all go drink at peripheral events which for sure they have it at like an american convention as well but But I think they just have a stronger place of prominence in the Canadian system. And not even because they're better, but because just by weight, more of the activity happens there.
Carter
5:32
Well, you can just sit in the, I mean, first of all, it's also in an arena. I mean, let's not forget that this is filling an actual stadium. You know, a Canadian, a big Canadian convention is 2,000 or 3,000 people.
Carter
5:47
It's just not the same. Although, who knows how big the convention is going to be in November. eh? Huh?
Carter
5:53
Huh? The UCP voting in or voting out Daniel Smith could be huge, could be epic. Stay tuned to The Strategist podcast for more updates, and make sure to subscribe to Patreon. Did
Corey
6:08
Did you like that? This is a Patreon episode, but you keep going. Yeah. Fuck.
Carter
6:11
Fuck. Then keep subscribing. Keep paying. Well, and by the way, you guys are lucky that you're Patreon members now, because starting Starting in November, we have to hike our rates by 30% in order to keep the same amount of money coming in. Just for
Corey
6:24
for new members. Just for new members.
Carter
6:27
members. So these existing members are grandfathered in. Way to go, grandparents. That's pretty amazing.
Corey
6:36
I think they can also just register. It doesn't matter. We're not going to talk about our pricey structure online. It's fine.
Corey
6:42
We'll take the money out of Stephen's cut. Let
Carter
6:43
Let me ask you, though. So, like, what did you think, like, when you compared, when you think back, and I chose some, I think, some rather egregious examples, but when you think back to the Republican convention, are there speakers that jump out at you beyond the Dana White and the Hulk Hogan moments? Or, like, I was really struggling to kind of come up with a list of speakers that really anybody noticed in the Republican National Convention. convention no
Corey
7:12
okay i'm gonna say no but i'm gonna put two caveats on that first of all i wasn't nearly as engaged in the republican convention i just wasn't and after
Carter
7:21
after an assassination attempt you didn't pay attention it
Corey
7:25
kind of felt for a minute like maybe this was all over right well biden was still in and that but
Corey
7:31
but second of all also
Corey
7:33
also my most lingering memory of the rnc i I have to say, is the people who were wearing bandages on their ears in solidarity with Trump. I just cannot understand that energy, but that's fine. Second of all, I do think that the Democrats are just better at this stuff. You know, there's more Hollywood connections, there's more entertainment industry, there's more design industry. The spectacle of the DNC is something that the Republican, first of all, I think it was just the best DNC I've ever seen in terms of and packageability in television, but
Corey
8:04
they're always better than the Republican one. The Republican one always feels a little dark. The red light that promenades through everything because it's the Republicans and red's their color these days, it creates this dour energy. I don't know. It was much more cheerful in Chicago.
Carter
8:22
That's so funny because blue light traditionally is seen as cold, and red light is generally seen as warm. and it seems to have the opposite impact uh at the dnc versus the rnc this is my you know theater training coming back to haunt haunt me haunt
Corey
8:39
haunt all of us but i do recall even when john mccain was um do you remember that crazy convention i think that was john mccain maybe that was mitt romney where uh
Corey
8:49
there was the soliloquy with the chair like talking to the chair as though yeah as obama was it
Carter
8:53
it was it uh clint
Carter
8:54
clint eastwood clint eastwood yeah clint eastwood talking to the chair holy crap was
Carter
8:59
was that a convention or yeah i guess
Corey
9:01
guess it was that's
Corey
9:03
that's another thing you won't see at a canadian convention yeah
Corey
9:06
like actors coming up prominent celebrities and and making endorsements like that yeah
Carter
9:13
yeah no it's it's quite it was uh it was quite something i i also enjoyed all the hairstyles at the rnc i think the rnc actually did win in hairstyles uh there was quite a a hairstyle gap uh a lot of hair product used at the rnc uh less seemingly used at the uh the nc okay
Corey
9:32
okay well i'll keep that in mind for when i'm writing up my post event summary as well that's good so
Carter
9:38
so here's the question is
Carter
9:40
is this something that actually is going to generate a bump well
Corey
9:45
well i would say i would ask you this historically
Corey
9:47
historically the answer is yes short term no long term right right i
Corey
9:53
i would ask you this let's
Corey
9:55
let's expand what this is here not just the convention but this first month of kamala harris right
Corey
10:01
is this real is there any this to this or is this just a moment and we're going to see the polls settle down and i want to throw a couple of pieces of data at you just
Corey
10:11
just maybe to frame out this conversation from the start.
Carter
10:13
Ooh, I like data. I've always been a big data fan. It's
Carter
10:16
that gets me excited. So, you know, bring the data, Corey.
Carter
10:22
at home, I'm watching Corey's face as he's looking for the data, trying
Carter
10:25
trying to cover for him so that he's able to find the data in an appropriate amount of time. Okay, have you got your data
Corey
10:34
I'll find the specifics in a minute here. I thought I knew exactly where they were, but I do not.
Corey
10:39
Here's Here's the rough data. Let's call this the simple fact. Joe Biden,
Corey
10:45
Hillary Clinton, both were ahead of Donald Trump by more at this point in the cycle. There's no question that Kamala Harris has really turned around the polls for the Democrats, pulled them up a significant amount in the past month.
Corey
10:58
those other two were
Corey
11:00
were both up on Donald Trump, and only one of them won, right? And they were up by more.
Corey
11:06
The other piece of data I'll have for you here is this. When you look at the swing state polling, it's
Corey
11:12
it's still kind of a toss-up.
Corey
11:14
You can certainly argue the most recent polls do put Kamala Harris in the lead, but it's by like this, you know, just like razor thin, and Donald Trump has historically outperformed his polls. So as much as there's this jubilance in the Democratic movement,
Corey
11:30
should there be? Is there any this here? Or are we just, they were so down in the dumps, and now they've managed to pull themselves back up into a horse race?
Carter
11:39
Yeah, I think they're back to where they should have been, right?
Carter
11:41
right? I think that they're back to the horse race, that the age of the primary candidate is no longer the anvil that was dragging the campaign down. But they're back to where they should be. They're not 1% higher than they should be. They're at the 3% mark that is, you know, in the polling averages that is kind of anticipated between the, you
Carter
12:05
you know, at the national polling level. But that's no good. You can win this election by 3% and still lose the Electoral College. And that's where, you know, I've been doing 270 to win, you know, like some sort of drug addict, trying to figure out exactly how she gets to 270 electoral college votes, because that's really all that matters. Winning the popular vote, well, we've seen a couple of times where winning the popular vote doesn't really matter. Hillary Clinton lost, and so did, who lost to Bush? Al Gore. Al Gore lost. So just winning the popular vote isn't going to be enough.
Corey
12:46
Well, yeah. So I did find the data. Today, in history, Harris is up 1.5 points on one of the averages I'm looking at. I've seen averages where she's up as much as four, right? Yeah. So take it with a grain of salt.
Corey
12:59
biden at this point was up eight points clinton
Corey
13:02
clinton was up six points
Corey
13:05
so how does that make you feel well
Carter
13:07
well i think it makes me feel okay i think that because she's coming from a different space right she is she's coming from seven
Carter
13:14
seven points down right
Corey
13:17
the trend line is extraordinary right
Corey
13:18
those other two don't have that i
Carter
13:21
look at the line and the direction of the line because that's momentum right and momentum is is the thing that we're looking for now will she be able to sustain them i think she gets a bump from the convention how
Carter
13:33
how sustainable is that bump um i mean we're going to see i think that she's got the ability to go up by five or six points and i think she has the ability to hold it in a way that hillary and joe was were unable to because we've seen all of we've seen all of trump's plays trump doesn't have any new plays they are uh coming out and this is i think the first campaign including Biden's campaign. But this is the first campaign that is actually ahead of Trump. You know, Trump's not dominating the agenda. In fact, Kamala and her team seem to, and
Carter
14:11
and let's be clear, I don't think this is good management. I think this is good luck. They seem to be winning
Carter
14:16
winning the day every single day.
Corey
14:20
They do. And they've got the bigger crowds, and that's clearly getting getting under Trump's skin, and Trump is melting down. I don't think it was entirely him. It seemed to be supported by staff because there were semi-coherent thoughts put out, but he was live tweeting or live truthing, whatever his truth social network is, the speech by Kamala Harris last night. And clearly,
Corey
14:42
clearly, clearly he is reacting to this in a way that's different from how he he reacted to Hillary Clinton or Joe Biden, where at
Corey
14:51
at those times he had, it was always still chaotic Trump energy. It was always still asshole energy, but it was a confident asshole. You
Corey
14:59
You don't get confident asshole from this guy anymore. You get, you get somebody who seems quasi panicked about everything that's going on. My God, he even, he said nice things about the governor of Georgia yesterday,
Corey
15:09
yesterday, who he fucking hates. Right. But Kemp is a Republican governor. It's a close race. And And all of a sudden, I think he's starting to find Republican religion on this. The biggest sign to me that this is real is Donald Trump's reaction. And I don't know if that makes any sense because I don't have any confidence this guy has a thought
Corey
15:30
thought in his head that's not just a
Corey
15:34
But the way he's reacting and the way he looks like a loser right now, and I don't mean that in like a put-down sense, but in a guy who knows that he's not in this the way he was before, that
Corey
15:44
that makes me think it's real. But what
Corey
15:47
if Harris is living her bump right now? What if 1.5 points up today in this aggregator, others I've seen as high as four, right? What if this is her bump? And what if that's going to go away?
Carter
15:58
Yeah, I mean, if it goes away, I mean, we're back in the Joe Biden's going to lose category. And, you know, I think that the
Carter
16:08
it's too long a period of time. What is it 75 days, 74 days, something like that. It's too long of a period of time to just be able to project polls forward. But it's locking in. And the locking in, if there's a three point slide, there's not a lot of available undecided vote. uh there's available uh i'm not going to vote anymore right like bringing back people who had said that they couldn't choose between biden and and trump which by the way seems to be kind of a a false
Carter
16:42
false thing but nonetheless it was it
Corey
16:44
it was something that people were
Carter
16:45
were yeah i mean rfk
Carter
16:47
rfk is plummeted uh rfk i mean does rfk yeah i mean i'm jumping off on this but i'm gonna ask it um does Does RFK have the jam to make it to election day?
Carter
17:06
Why hasn't he dropped out yet?
Corey
17:10
Why was he in in the first place? He was in in the
Carter
17:13
the first place because at the beginning he could get 20%, right?
Carter
17:16
right? And 20%, when you're looking at 20%, you're thinking to yourself, you know what? If I run a great campaign, I can get 35%. and if i can get 35 i could win in a three-way race right
Carter
17:29
could be i guess but he
Carter
17:33
went from 20 now he's down below five percent and he's not been moving i mean the only movement he's had is from seven to five yeah
Carter
17:41
he's not dropping he's going to drop probably another three points uh over this and wind up in jill stein territory um you know i think that this is this is the end of rfk but you know why hasn't he dropped out why wouldn't he have dropped out before the bear story cory you
Carter
17:58
you know like if you know the bear story is going to come out and you're going to get busted for for leaving a bear in central park with a bicycle um you know as a gag as a gag that one does because you and i've done similar gags you remember that time we we we bought rob bob uh mariani
Carter
18:17
yeah 50 000 uh uh twitter followers or whatever it was that was hilarious that
Corey
18:21
that was pretty fun yeah we had to
Carter
18:23
to buy him a carrot cake
Corey
18:24
cake he was really upset about that yeah so then we bought him an apology cake but it turns out he's allergic to carrot cake or something that was the best that was
Carter
18:29
was the best set
Carter
18:30
of gags we've ever done uh
Carter
18:32
uh besides starting a podcast called the strategists that
Carter
18:37
also a fairly good gag that
Corey
18:38
that was fairly impulsive yeah yeah
Carter
18:40
yeah so let me ask you about gags because
Carter
18:42
because you know we we're we're pretty big on gags we we have a whole lexicon of gags that we've that we've put onto this podcast what you think about the former president of the united states doing a dick joke uh
Carter
18:53
uh around crowd size crowd size so
Corey
18:56
so do you think a lot of debate is this was it a day so it was a dick joke anyone who's not familiar with it yeah
Carter
19:03
yeah set us up barack
Corey
19:04
barack obama in his speech talked about donald trump's weird obsession with crowd size and then with his hands did kind of a like from big to small gesture right yeah
Corey
19:15
and the debate is was he doing a parody of donald trump's accordion hands or was he kind
Corey
19:20
kind of was he suggesting he has small penis and there are arguments to be made for both not
Corey
19:26
not least of which is he looked down at his hands and the way he looked down on
Carter
19:29
on it the way he looked down on it the expression on his face was a dick joke
Carter
19:34
can we just dispense with the argument and and reach the conclusion it was a dick joke
Corey
19:41
was a pretty good one it was an
Carter
19:43
dick joke what do you think about the former president of the united states who was slammed for wearing a tan suit uh
Carter
19:50
uh as though it was the worst thing that had ever happened in the state of the union um
Carter
19:56
and i mean the state of the union not the speech i mean the entire union uh in the history of the union um he wore a tan suit and now he's making dick jokes what are our thoughts there uh
Corey
20:08
uh listen you've you've got me to the tansu thing i want to give our listeners who are like what are they talking about the tansu he wore a tansu at a meeting this
Corey
20:16
this is an actual quote from a republican member of the house at the time there's
Corey
20:21
there's no way i don't think any of us can excuse what the president did yesterday i mean you have the world watching because
Corey
20:29
because he wore a tansu yeah
Carter
20:30
yeah and then they went and elected Donald Trump.
Corey
20:32
And then they went and elected Donald Trump.
Corey
20:36
what do I think of this? I think that it is consistent with the Republicans feeling the new Democratic strategy of,
Corey
20:44
you know what, fuck you too. And just going in hard on the memes, going in hard on even the things that they know are not true, getting a little vicious, getting a little nasty.
Corey
20:55
And we've had a lot of conversation about this in the past couple of weeks here, some of it on podcasts, some of it not.
Corey
21:04
it, but it is kind of fun to watch. It's amusing, but it's terrible, if that makes any sense. I'm enjoying seeing people stand up to the bullies. I'm enjoying that.
Corey
21:14
I think that the overall trend line, speaking of trend lines, what did you say? You look at the line and the direction of the line, because that's momentum. The momentum is towards a coarsening of politics in the United States and in this country. And that's not super, but
Corey
21:28
but it is, you know, it's a really fun roller coaster to hell that we're getting to see the Democrats find their mojo and start getting in Trump's head and getting in Loomer's head and getting in Boebert's head and the heads of all of these people. I'm
Carter
21:42
something's finally getting into Boebert's head.
Carter
21:46
So if Trump loses, is there a return
Carter
21:50
return to normalcy? Is this the thing that we've been, you know, three elections in a row, he's run for president.
Carter
21:57
and he's won one if he loses do we get to return to normalcy or or do we is this our new normal you know the the former president of the united states making dick jokes in order to get under the skin of his of the competitor you
Corey
22:12
know first of all the former president doing it on the stage is maybe maybe a little bit newer but we didn't have around the clock coverage of some of these others like Truman, right? Like LBJ, man who famously said, call him a pig fucker and make him deny it. Do we really think that this is somehow a worsening of that relative to the times? You could argue that Barack Obama's dick joke, very tame by 2024 standards. LBJ's comments back in the 50s, 60s, not
Corey
22:42
not so tame relative to those standards. So I don't know. I just want want to challenge your assumption there a little bit but on the on the question of whether if trump is gone everything goes back to normal the answer is like an emphatic no absolutely not right he's created a blueprint that other people are going to pick up there are enough mini trumps around who have seen the components of trump like how many republicans out there do you think are thinking if trump just did the same things but did this a little different he'd be he could take over this this fucking country, right? I'm sure J.D. Vance is one of them. I'm sure Vivek Ramaswamy is one of them. I think at this point, we've just had too long of a period of incubation for this. And it's not even like the
Corey
23:25
the Trump movement came from, the mega movement sort of came from the Tea Party movement, came from some of the Newt
Corey
23:32
Newt Gingrich tactics of the 90s. There's a pretty straight line that takes you all the way back to Nixon if you're really looking for it in terms of what the Republicans are doing here. So what, do I think one person going away is going to change that? I don't. You know, I also believe in my core.
Corey
23:47
You've heard me say this before. Nothing in life is as good or as bad as you think it is. And getting
Corey
23:53
getting rid of Trump is not going to solve a lot of people's problems. It's just not, right?
Corey
23:57
Or you say, oh, yeah, right. We've still got
Corey
24:01
basically an oligarchy that runs the United States with all of these billionaires pouring and all of this money into a totally uncompetitive seat, a Supreme Court that's off the rails.
Corey
24:11
Let's put it this way. The Supreme Court has
Corey
24:14
has made more impactful policy decisions in the past four years than Joe Biden, and they're not electable.
Corey
24:19
It's going to take a long time to undo that.
Corey
24:22
So no, I don't think the problems go away if Trump is gone.
Carter
24:25
Well, the reason I ask about Trump losing is I still think that, you know, we covered this at one of our other You the People episodes So it's where we were looking at the Senate
Carter
24:34
Senate polling, the governor polling in the competitive states. Right. And for example, North Carolina, Stein is continuing to destroy the the opposition, the governor opposition. And so the Democrats continue to be five points up and the Democrats aren't five points up in the in the presidential race. But I do think that that's their high watermark. I think that the high-water mark for the Democrats is to lift themselves back up to the Senate standings, right? So Bob Casey in Pennsylvania is up by five to seven points. I mean, Mark Kelly in Arizona is winning. Nevada is going Democrat for the—in fact, everything as far as Montana. Tester just recently had a poll that put him up by five points over his competitor in the Senate race. There is a very real possibility in what can only be described as a devastating map for the Democrats Senate wise. They could even they might they might they might they might hold
Carter
25:40
hold the Senate. And
Carter
25:42
And if they hold the Senate, then
Carter
25:44
then it seems impossible to me that Harris would actually lose because
Carter
25:48
because the high watermark of the Senate remains the the
Carter
25:53
objective goal or the objective reality. Yeah. You know, a reality, a real point where I think that Harris can get to. Do you think that that's attainable or do you think that I'm just kind of talking, you know, wishful thinking that that these these known
Carter
26:08
known known governor, you know, known Senate candidates are reaching are too high and too far out of the scope for for for Kamala Harris?
Corey
26:23
No, I don't think that's wishful thinking. I have a hard time getting past the fact that you're talking about a scenario where if everything breaks for them perfectly, it's
Corey
26:32
it's basically a tie in the Senate. It's basically a tie in the House right now. Well,
Carter
26:37
Well, but I'm only all I'm doing is adding one seat in the Senate test. Right. Right. Because right now the polling has forty nine relatively strong, you know, Democratic seats. The only one that's up in the air is Montana. Well,
Corey
26:54
I guess my point here would be, absolutely
Corey
26:58
absolutely accept that. And I think it's interesting that the Democrats might be able to, for
Corey
27:02
for those who are not as keyed
Corey
27:04
keyed into, I think there's pretty basic Senate knowledge, but I'll just say it anyways, the Senate, only a third of the seats are up for election every six years. And every other House of Representatives seat is up for election in the United States over two years.
Corey
27:17
Yeah, it's not a great seat for them. Sometimes there's good years for the Senate. Sometimes there's bad years. They're defending. They're on the offense. You know, this should be a year where the Democrats lose. Looks like it could be a year where the Democrats hold on.
Corey
27:30
But to pull it to your previous thought, you
Corey
27:33
you were saying, is everything good if Donald Trump's gone? And I just want to underline, Donald
Corey
27:39
Donald Trump could lose and the Republicans could still control the House and the Senate. And do you really think they will have, quote unquote, learned a lesson at that particular moment? If it's a 50-50 Senate, do you think they're going to learn the lesson? And I
Corey
27:50
I agree with you that this is probably as good as it's going to get for the Democrats at this moment. But that's
Corey
27:55
that's also in some ways a little discouraging, right?
Corey
27:59
right? Like the poison in the system is not going away in the near future.
Carter
28:06
Yeah, I mean, I think that the system is, you know, the system being broken, but the as broken
Carter
28:12
broken as it is, it seems to be broken in a 50-50 split.
Corey
28:18
yeah well and so we don't uh you know just entirely bring ourselves down here the reality is you're right the trend line is moving in the right direction here if if you want to put a stop to this mega republicanism i'm not even saying like you have to be a democrat or anything it certainly feels like there are even republicans who are distancing themselves from donald trump a little bit more yeah obviously that's helped by polls that show the democrats doing more and more they are pulling away a bit on the generic ballot which is you would you prefer to have a democrat or republican in congress it was yeah it's been basically 50 50 for months now the democrats are by a point or two which doesn't sound like a lot but over all of the seats that they have that could be very significant and um i don't know man there is a there's reason to think that things will change but if they're going to change it's it's slow it's not going to be overnight it's not going to be in a heartbeat yeah
Carter
29:11
yeah i mean i'm i'm i'm fascinated to see how it all unfolds um you know it's 76 days or whatever the number may be here i
Carter
29:22
mean in canadian politics that's forever that's
Corey
29:24
that's like two election campaigns two
Carter
29:26
two election campaigns back to back uh in american politics that feels like a a
Corey
29:32
well they've basically been saying that since harris was selected this is a sprint now she doesn't have all this time and literally every other country is looking at it and saying, you
Corey
29:40
you know, we do this in weeks, guys. Yeah,
Carter
29:43
Yeah, for sure. And we see significant shifts in the 35, 36 days of a federal election campaign. So are we looking to see, are we going to see those significant shifts?
Corey
29:55
Well, let's talk about the big flashpoints we have. We've got at least one presidential debate on September 10th. There's a vice presidential debate, which normally I would say who cares, but I'd say Walls has had a level of celebrity a a little beyond what I expected. And certainly Vance has been in the discourse more than I think Trump had hoped. So maybe that'll be a bit more likely
Corey
30:13
likely to be another debate, I would imagine.
Corey
30:16
Maybe not, maybe that's just a but I feel like people will be looking for that flashpoint. We have we have the federal budget deadlines that are coming up in October, which will no doubt become a bit of a flashpoint there. We've got interest rate decisions, which I
Corey
30:32
I think are probably going to just help the democrats but who knows what's happening there i don't know i'm trying to think of other flashpoints that might occur oh a very big one the anniversary of october 7th the terror attack in israel and the subsequent israel israeli response into gaza which could really put pressure on the democratic coalition uh
Corey
30:51
uh but beyond that i'm i don't know what do you think any
Corey
30:54
any i'm missing well
Carter
30:57
think that there's an optimistic one and that is the uh you know, a ceasefire in the Middle East and some sort of a negotiated arrangement around the Ukraine. I think both of those are improbable, if not impossible, because Putin and Netanyahu are both basically holding out, hoping for a Trump victory. They're not going to give the Democrats that type of victory. But
Carter
31:25
But I think that that's really the other one. Now, I think that Those are the known inflection points. Where things could be interesting is the unknown inflection points. The thing that happens on the campaign trail that changes everything. And we've seen those, you know, Alison Redford had a staffer say that Danielle Smith couldn't understand family issues
Carter
31:49
issues because she didn't have her own kids. Well, I mean, that turned into a nightmare. nightmare uh daniel smith winds up having the uh the lake of fire nightmare and that changes everything again so we saw everything change in two you
Carter
32:01
you know in two to three weeks i mean
Carter
32:05
american politics is i think a lot more locked down but and
Carter
32:10
and and trump doesn't it seems to get away with saying whatever the fuck pops out of his mouth so the inflection point may be some positive or negative thing that comes out of harris or walls yeah
Corey
32:22
yeah just events right like yeah
Corey
32:24
an event that occurs that everybody has to respond to when you talk about lockdown it
Corey
32:28
it is interesting and it's true in a lot of jurisdictions but for sure in the states smaller and smaller group of people who are up for grabs in any election people have really entrenched themselves especially down there cnn
Corey
32:41
cnn did a panel of people who watched the uh uh the debate but not the debate i'm sorry the speech that kamala harris gave last night and it was in theory an undecided panel i think it was like nine people i
Corey
32:55
wrong on the numbers but only by one or two all
Corey
32:58
all but one of them after watching said they were going to vote for harris like it was it was a really well-received speech so i don't know i i think after all of these years of whatever
Corey
33:10
whatever it is that we've lived through for the past couple of years one of the the things a lot of pundits have said about last night's speech is it was a return to normalcy it was a very normal presidential speech in many ways and i
Corey
33:21
think that's true maybe
Corey
33:23
people saw it and said oh you know what actually i'd prefer that to whatever we've been dealing with for the past bit like all of the madness all of the chaos like keep in mind even the last dnc was
Corey
33:34
was remote they had they had their convention online and in this little room that one wasn't very good in my my opinion, I remember watching it and thinking, I'm
Corey
33:44
I'm going to blame the moment we're in.
Corey
33:47
But certainly it felt like Donald Trump had the stronger one in terms of visuals and power and impact, right?
Corey
33:54
This was a return to the big convention with the balloon drop with normal people say normal things. And it does occur to me, we haven't really seen that for
Corey
34:02
for at least eight years.
Corey
34:04
I wonder if Americans being reintroduced to it won't think, that's refreshing.
Corey
34:09
That's not too bad yeah
Carter
34:10
well i think that uh also
Carter
34:13
also this one had a lot of star power right like there there was not there was no fear in sharing the spotlight right you bring the obamas in you know you're going to have some difficulty reaching the heights of their their rhetoric and their ability to deliver a speech you bring in bill and hillary hillary clinton there there are some stars on on that stage that uh you know politically are sometimes hard to get out from under um
Carter
34:42
you know i don't remember i don't remember who spoke at hillary clinton's convention i i'm not sure i
Corey
34:50
i mean everybody because they get everybody to speak at every convention yeah
Carter
34:53
yeah but uh this
Carter
34:55
felt like it was it was emptying the cupboard and putting everybody on the stage and saying you know what we don't care we're going to make sure that the strength of the the democratic party is seen not just the strength of kamala harris it was going it was a it was a systemic victory and you mentioned at one point it might be the best dnc you've ever seen that certainly has been the uh the pundits review is that this might be the best convention period in
Carter
35:21
in history and i think that there's some recency bias there always
Corey
35:25
always is but i
Corey
35:27
kind of agree you know No, I mean, again, recency bias, and there are conventions that mean more to me personally than I've been to, but it
Corey
35:35
it certainly showcased a deep bench. To your point, there did seem to be a very generous sharing of spotlight.
Corey
35:43
I don't know, I mean, maybe that's more of our, maybe
Corey
35:47
maybe it's simply because we knew that the Biden convention was trying to do things like have the roll call weeks in advance and all of that. And there was like this defensiveness that was at the core of it. For somebody who basically walked into the convention, having not even been a
Corey
36:02
possibility to be candidate three weeks earlier, four weeks earlier, I
Corey
36:06
I thought that the ease with which that spotlight was shared was pretty remarkable, pretty significant.
Corey
36:12
Really well produced, really entertaining convention as far as political conventions go. Did
Corey
36:18
really show a deep bench, lots of great speakers. Certainly, if you're a Democrat, you're thinking pretty
Corey
36:23
pretty bright future, some pretty incredible talent up there.
Corey
36:28
But, you know, best convention ever is in the eye of the beholder. Was it the most substantive convention?
Corey
36:34
No, not remotely, right, in terms of policy. And I don't know if this is going to set America on a different course. Was this the convention that brought together and really rebalanced the, you know, one of these moments in American history where everything gets flipped up and maybe there's new parties and there's new people and there's new approaches? No, I don't really think so. But if your goal was to capture attention and entertain, I don't know how this is not the best convention.
Carter
37:03
Yeah, I mean, but this is being compared and contrasted, I think, to the 1968 DNC in Chicago. where all the anti-war protesters came and disrupted and there was a threat that there was going to be the the Palestinian pro, you know, the pro-Palestinian protesters coming out, being met by pro-Israeli protesters. You know, this was going to to create chaos
Carter
37:28
chaos at the convention. None of that happened.
Carter
37:31
none of that happened. And and not
Carter
37:34
not only did none of that happen, it seemed that they were prepared for it. There were comments, you know, Joe Biden said, those protesters out there, they've got a point, right? Like he recognized and brought in that side of it. And even with the specter of these Palestinian protesters and potential Israeli or Jewish responses, it
Carter
38:01
it just never really materialized. Everybody just seemed to, I mean, there were protests, but it was pretty run-of-the-mill. It certainly wasn't 1968.
Corey
38:12
Well, look, I'm not sure that could ever happen again. A modern political event, especially if it involves the vice president of the United States, but just in general, there are, I mean, even in Canada, there's so many guardrails on them. Really big police presence, really big security presence, free speech zones, quote unquote. quote, you know, they've been rebranded and renamed, but largely it comes to you can protest over there, you cannot protest over here.
Corey
38:36
Because there are so many security and police, if something starts to look like it's going to go south, they will act promptly before it even has the opportunity to become a scene. And that's true in a lot of jurisdictions. And we're not driven there exclusively because people don't like the
Corey
38:51
the optics of it. We started this talking about the fact that somebody took a shot at Donald Trump just
Corey
38:57
weeks ago, right? Right. There are legitimate security concerns because a bullet can undo the will of 300 million people like that, you know, and that's a pretty scary thought when you think about it. So I just don't know that you're going to see that again. 68 was chaos. We had so many political assassinations around that time, too. People started saying, we've
Corey
39:19
we've got to do this a little bit differently. And that's unfortunate in many ways. Free speech certainly took a dent, but I
Corey
39:26
I just don't think that it was ever going to be like 68. I think that was a weird
Corey
39:30
weird thing for people to be thinking about. And I think some Republicans were almost wishing it would occur that way. Some Democrats were living in fear. But this
Corey
39:40
goes to the polish of the event overall. These people are pros. They've done it a million times.
Corey
39:46
There were protests at any event of any size on some issue. And yes, there was a heightened risk of protest. test they
Corey
39:52
they certainly know how to scale those things up so
Carter
39:55
so this might is the is this the this is the conclusion of
Carter
39:59
of a political period that
Carter
40:01
that included an assassination attempt the rnc the dnc the existing president stepping down yeah
Carter
40:08
um you know and the rise of kamala harris uh this is the end of it yeah
Corey
40:14
yeah i mean weird what a weird time like
Carter
40:17
like that was what a four week period or five week period you
Corey
40:19
you would think with all this content we would have recorded more it's
Carter
40:22
it's summer i mean realistically uh you
Carter
40:26
you and i are here today we didn't you know there's no zane velji there's uh there's no annalise it's just you and me again just
Corey
40:32
just you and me just you and me but showing
Carter
40:34
showing the commitment to the to the patreon subscribers uh who will be grandfathered in and not have to pay our increased rates uh so get your friends to buy in september uh because you can save a lot of of money you
Carter
40:48
know like it's 30 off in september and october we
Corey
40:50
we should we should probably frame it that way that's like how uh
Corey
40:54
uh you know trump's tax hike is coming in and comal harris wants to cut taxes it's just it's all about branding man yeah
Carter
40:59
yeah you're absolutely right um okay
Carter
41:04
got through my list yeah