Transcript
Zain
0:02
This is a strategist episode 999.99. My name is Zain Velji. With me as always, Corey Hogan, Stephen Carter. Guys, how
Zain
0:10
how are you? Stephen, how is it in your last minutes being a free man? Now, the listeners may not be able to hear it, but Corey and I, just before we went on, could hear those sirens getting very loud outside your house. those
Carter
0:22
those were um those were firefighters those
Carter
0:24
those they're coming to
Carter
0:25
to see my wife i think what's going on heather
Carter
0:29
heather uh grows tired of me every day and
Carter
0:32
and his uh talent you know auditioning the new talent shall we say so
Zain
0:37
why do you have to make it weird right away why does it
Zain
0:40
to be that just extremely awkward
Zain
0:43
off the bat let
Carter
0:43
let me tell you right now i i apologize i'm just asking you you guys please do not patrick brown me so
Carter
0:48
so uh keep keep me in the race guys keep me in the race please breaking
Carter
0:53
breaking news oh yeah carter carter
Zain
0:56
carter do you want to break the news we we have a breaking news off the top um and that breaking news carter of course uh is that flare airlines has signed a multi-year partnership as the official airline of the canadian elite basketball league carter that That is quite a announcement by Flair Airlines. Carter, this is, of course, to remind the new listeners of the podcast, first of all, welcome. Secondly, our sponsor, Flair Airlines. Not our sponsor.
Zain
1:21
sponsor. Yeah, not our sponsor. Carter, our sponsor is now broadening their
Zain
1:25
their wings, maybe expanding the wings of one of their very, very poor airlines. Now getting into basketball, which is another hot topic on this podcast as well, Carter.
Carter
1:37
Well, let me tell you something. I think there's no confirmation yet, but I am told the
Carter
1:40
the reason why Patrick Brown has been Patrick Brown, he
Carter
1:43
he accepted a sponsorship from Flair Airlines, and
Carter
1:46
and that's why he couldn't get his campaign up in the air.
Zain
1:49
Listen, I mean, come on, Carter. Your attempts to try to connect everything to the next thing, while honorable, are misfiring. That was pretty fantastic. Speaking of misfiring, Corey, Flair Airlines, you know, they have their
Zain
2:02
their sponsor, the Canadian Elite Basketball League. and I and you listen we rarely fulfill our sponsorship obligations on this show but I have one piece of strategic advice hear me out Corey okay yeah
Zain
2:13
yeah I dunk contest with all the white guys six foot and under in the Canadian elite basketball league which I assume is the majority of the players on this uh sponsored
Zain
2:22
sponsored by flare airlines just
Zain
2:25
just think of this just just just you know medium-sized glasses of milk trying to touch the rim sponsored by flare airlines I feel like I i would pay to see that i would pay to see that and i think they need to do it cory i
Corey
2:37
i think under six feet dunk contest is something that i could get behind i don't know why you need to make it uh you know i
Zain
2:43
i need to make it racial i do need to make it racial uh speaking of speaking of making it racial carter patrick brown yeah
Zain
2:49
uh he is white but his brown is his last name just so just so people are clear this is a audio medium some
Zain
2:55
people might think patrick brown is brown i want to correct that patrick brown is white uh
Zain
3:00
uh he tried to get a lot of brown people uh
Zain
3:03
uh to buy memberships for him carter uh you know we are now learning through an email by ian brody i'm gonna just pull it up here yeah this was an email literally sent moments ago uh it's the conservative party membership but i do want to discuss this breaking news if i can call it that uh and i'm just going to try to find it i don't
Zain
3:21
don't have it oh it is breaking news okay so you
Carter
3:22
you want me to read it to you ian
Zain
3:23
ian brody chair of the leadership election organizing committee carter do you want me to read this or do you want to do a cold read for the listeners? I
Carter
3:29
I think you should do it. You've got that radio voice that turns me on. Here
Zain
3:33
In recent weeks, our party became aware of serious allegations of our undoing by the Patrick Brown campaign that appeared to violate the financial provisions of the Canada Elections Act.
Zain
3:44
Following our rules and procedures for the 2022 leadership, the chief returning officer notified the Patrick Brown campaign of the allegations and asked for a written response. He also withheld the interim membership list from the Patrick Brown campaign. The
Zain
3:56
The information provided to date by the Brown campaign did not satisfy the concerns about their compliance with our rules and procedures and or the elections Canada Elections Act. The chief returning officer has therefore recommended to the LEOC. Corey, what's the LEOC? Just for folks that do not know.
Corey
4:12
I assume it stands for Leadership Election Organizing Committee or something. Yeah, okay. That's
Zain
4:17
And I thought you'd know it. Okay. That the LEOC disqualify Hi, Patrick Brown. And earlier tonight, the
Zain
4:22
the LEOC has agreed to do so. The party will be sharing the information as gathered with Elections Canada, who is responsible for ensuring compliance with and enforcement of the Canada Elections Act. One more paragraph here.
Zain
4:34
Throughout the investigation of the allegations, a chief returning officer and I, this is Ian Brody speaking, have done our best to be fair to the Brown leadership campaign and provide them with the time they need to substantively refute these allegations. We regret having to take these steps, but we have an obligation to ensure that both Both our party's rules and federal law are
Zain
4:52
are respected by all candidates and campaign teams, so that none of these problems has any impact on the integrity of the vote itself. While we felt it's important to be transparent to response to party members about this matter because it's an issue now
Zain
5:05
now subject to further investigation, we will not be speaking further on this subject, Carter.
Zain
5:11
That's the brunt of it. That's what we know, literally as of 10 minutes ago, as this email hit many inboxes across the country. well
Zain
5:17
well 675 000 at least one would say we'll get to that in a second but carter uh
Zain
5:21
uh your initial thoughts when you hear this this
Carter
5:23
this is big i mean even jason kenney didn't get expelled from the leaderships that he cheated in so
Carter
5:28
so this is this is a significant step forward for the conservative party um first
Carter
5:33
first of all i think that the big issue here is that it's it has to do with financial information or financial structures um
Carter
5:40
um there's a lot of different things that you can get away with in the leadership, but
Carter
5:44
but you cannot get away from
Carter
5:45
from the financial structures that are being placed over you by the Elections Act and by the Elections Canada Commissioner.
Carter
5:52
Commissioner. That is essential. You can't screw around with those. And the party's also kind of on the hook for that. Not necessarily that they're going to get fined, but a lot of these donations are processed through the parties themselves. So this is big news. I
Carter
6:10
I don't remember, Corey, you've got a better memory than I, but I don't remember the last time we
Carter
6:15
we saw an actual candidate, let alone one that's in the top three of
Carter
6:19
of a leadership race, get
Carter
6:20
get tossed out at
Carter
6:24
this late date or at all, really. I
Carter
6:27
mean, I can't think of anyone.
Zain
6:28
anyone. A DQ, as
Zain
6:29
as we call it, Corey, a DQ for Patrick Brown.
Corey
6:33
Yeah. To Carter's point, I can't think of a time and that might just be my memory failing me, but it's
Corey
6:39
it's definitely a highly irregular set of events here. And so, you
Corey
6:44
you know, to get an email, if
Corey
6:46
if you're a party member at nine o'clock mountain time, almost midnight, if you're in the Eastern time zone, and
Corey
6:53
and it just sort of drops this on you, this LEOC has made this decision, doesn't even explain the acronym as a bit of an aside, right?
Corey
7:00
right? That seems like a bit of a hasty email. That's a party
Corey
7:03
party wanted to get it out quick to try to get ahead of things and frame things.
SPEAKER_02
7:07
so many questions. I'm
Corey
7:08
I'm sure you both do. I'm sure we'll know a lot more. And perhaps by the time people are listening to this tomorrow morning, because you all listen the first thing in the morning, I'm sure, maybe
Corey
7:18
maybe there will be some answers. But the nature of the wrongdoings, the fact that there were allegations and the response was not satisfactory. So what was the level of evidence here? Because it does sort of seem like the onus was then put on the Brown campaign rather than the onus being on the
Corey
7:36
the accuser, right? I wonder about that. I have many questions about that.
Corey
7:42
There is no doubt going to be all sorts of suggestions that this was done to
Corey
7:48
to disadvantage one candidate or another. But let's set that aside for a minute.
Corey
7:53
What happens to the memberships associated with the crowd count? Do they all remain intact? Is that 675,000 number going to be coming down a bit here?
Corey
8:04
We know there was a vote. I just like, I don't know, I could build longer and longer lists here. But this
Corey
8:11
this is pretty shocking news to drop at such a late hour. And you can kind of feel the sweat in the party.
Zain
8:20
Yeah, you can certainly feel I think that's right, Corey. And, of course, you know, one of the classic leadership controversies
Zain
8:29
controversies tactics, if I can call it that has been criticized, is the bulk membership purchases, right? So there's already speculation. Is this related to that? Right? Is this related to, you know, folks not paying for their memberships? If you recall earlier in the campaign, there was a call out by one of the campaigns, I forget which one, in the leadership regarding credit cards and multiple memberships on singular credit cards and trying to rectify that. Is this related to that? We don't know.
Zain
8:57
But we do know a couple of things in terms of impact card. And one of the things I think we do know, and I'm trying to debate whether to start with the
Zain
9:03
the outcome or the process. Maybe let me start with the process question that I find fascinating.
Zain
9:09
And it may not be exactly what you think. think. Michelle Rempel-Garner leaving
Zain
9:13
this campaign and the campaign manager of the Patrick Brown campaign leaving while they probably clearly knew this was going on.
Zain
9:21
Strategic or just so happened to be the case, Carter, in your mind now knowing a little bit more of the fact base, certainly not the entire fact base. Talk to me about that, how you feel about that, how you see that.
Carter
9:31
Let me tell you, I'm generally not a conspiracy theorist. I tend to lean towards towards incompetence
Carter
9:36
incompetence and coincidence much more than the average conspiracy theorist but this does make you ask the question right like how how
Carter
9:44
how does it happen that sean and michelle both leave um
Carter
9:48
um two weeks three weeks ago and then you
Carter
9:50
you know disappear into the woodwork i mean if they know this is coming um
Carter
9:54
um this could be uh an easy way out for them um but
Carter
10:01
also have a tremendous amount of time for sean snow who
Carter
10:04
who works with um works
Carter
10:07
works a lot with michelle and was the patrick brown uh campaign manager um
Carter
10:11
um i do not know him to be someone who skirts the rules so
Carter
10:15
so i will be very intrigued to see if
Carter
10:18
if this is in fact the case and not only
Carter
10:20
only who you know if this is the case but who gets hung out to dry because the other way is if you're not there you're not there to protect yourself uh
Carter
10:29
uh so sean and michelle um you
Carter
10:32
you know they they are not there to write the history that's that's
Zain
10:36
that's an interesting point carter if you're not there you're not there to protect yourself in some way either cory do you want to jump in on this on this particular process point i'm sure there's a dozen we can tackle but this one sticks out to me yeah
Corey
10:45
yeah um i don't know if i 100 agree with that they're not there to protect themselves i think a better way to put that would be if they're not there the
Corey
10:53
the the need to sort of hang with them is much lower. I mean, Michelle
Corey
10:57
Michelle Rempel-Garner can say whatever she wants from outside the campaign. She's still got a megaphone. She's still an MP.
Corey
11:04
One of the things I was thinking about when I was reading that email from Ian Brody that
Corey
11:12
something along the lines of, the answers have not been satisfactory to date.
Corey
11:16
There is kind of a, let
Corey
11:18
let me throw a different version of this at you. Sure.
Corey
11:21
Their campaign leadership all quit it's not actually a bit of a surprise to me if they actually could legitimately not resolve and answer basic questions of the leoc so um well i don't think that's actually what happened here just so i'm clear
Zain
11:35
clear do you mean just by the fact that like a lot of people left and now the people who were there don't like
Zain
11:40
like weren't there to answer the questions are you just talking about like the occam's razor sort
Corey
11:44
well this is not all i mean occam's razor is they got caught cheating yeah okay right there but what i'm saying is imagine a scenario where that was not the case imagine a scenario where the leoc reaches out and asks for a bunch of information of campaign leadership that's not there anymore and a bunch of second stringers have to put their best guesses of the answers together and uh and then submit them to ian brody who very sharply looks at them and looks back with his uh you know experience as a chief of staff and his even greater experience as being a professor at the University of Calgary, and says, hey, none of this passes any kind of muster, and then they go down. I mean, I don't think that's what happened, but let's just say if the Brown campaign truly could not get their act together to answer questions that they may have had answers to, looking
Corey
12:34
looking at the leadership bail when they did will probably have to be considered part of that equation.
Zain
12:39
Carter, I want to talk about outcome. There's so many process questions we'll address all of them as just as we get more details is
Zain
12:46
this a pierre pauliev first ballot victory now like is this just slam dunk city like is pierre pauliev just going to make more videos of touching wood because he can now yeah
Zain
12:56
because there's nothing to lose and he's got this it's
Carter
12:58
it's time for me to step in and save the country um
Carter
13:01
um pierre pauliev is going to win this on the first round he's
Carter
13:04
he's going to win it in a dominating fashion i
Carter
13:09
unequivocally predict uh first ballot victory for him uh
Carter
13:13
uh in september so um
Carter
13:17
that there it is i've predicted it and all we can hope for is that it just uh doesn't come true these
SPEAKER_02
13:22
are the scars of an
SPEAKER_02
13:26
the scars of a lumberjack the
SPEAKER_02
13:31
of a lumberjack scars uh
SPEAKER_02
13:34
I had to live through it once. Don't make me live through it twice.
Zain
13:37
twice. Yeah, okay, there you go. Corey, is this Slam Duck City for Pierre Polyev? And let me get more specific. Let me get strategic. How
Zain
13:45
How does he act? How is he supposed to act now? Is this just a simple let this process roll out? Or is this guy can't help himself, will give a giant fuck you as Patrick Brown exits stage right? I
Corey
13:57
I suspect he won't be able to help himself. But what he should be doing is saying, saying, my
Corey
14:01
my goodness, how very shocking. That's the LEOC. It's not my decision to make. I don't want to get involved. I want a clean race. That's all any of us want. And it sounds like there were some, you know, not just allegations, but substantiated allegations. And the party can't have that. We don't need what the liberals have provided for
Corey
14:19
for the past seven years. We need a conservative government that can be principled, follow the rules, you
Corey
14:23
you know, pivot back to kind of the bigger fight with trudeau maybe but don't don't swing hard at these things um i suspect he won't do that i suspect he'll go hard on it but listen
Corey
14:34
listen back it all up if the membership doesn't change yeah
Corey
14:39
you know there is obviously not patrick brown to vote for so maybe you don't mark the one so you never get the two for example you're jean charre yeah um but
Corey
14:48
but in theory at least the the voter universe did not change with today's news and there is a universe as far as we know yeah
Corey
14:58
well as far as we know that could change still further but if it stays the same it's
Corey
15:04
it's not impossible to imagine a very angry patrick brown going on the offensive he's obviously been attacked by scandal before he has sort
Corey
15:11
sort of quote-unquote learned that going on the offensive works for him i think that i will i will not go into a bit of a like
Corey
15:19
like a tailspin on on why i think patrick Brown is maybe not the greatest dude in the world on some of that stuff there, but
Corey
15:26
but he goes on the offensive. If he riles up the people who are going to vote for him and they just become more motivated by this and they vote against what they see as the interest of the Polyev campaign, or if there's any kind of suggestion that this is what this is all about, the party putting its thumb on the scale, well,
Corey
15:46
maybe not enough. Look,
Corey
15:48
it's hard to say because I always thought that Pierre Poliev was in the pole position here. But if he wasn't, he might still not be after tonight.
Zain
15:57
Carter, Corey brings an interesting point to the table, which is at least how I extrapolate it. Patrick Brown's response here might be even
Zain
16:06
even devoid of what happened. He knows what happened. He knows what the allegations are. But his response might be the same, which is, to Corey's point, to fight, to be loud about it. And what are you thinking he's going to do? And what should he do? What should Patrick Brown do from a purely reputational perspective here? Let's say the allegations, I don't want to make them up, but let's say they're in the neighborhood of kind of what we think, triangulating financial and membership and structure. We know that's in that ballpark. Let's say, you know, Patrick Brown also has that awareness.
Zain
16:36
What do you think he's going to do? And what should he do?
Carter
16:39
He should launch a campaign immediately. immediately um every every we every day for the next four
Carter
16:44
four weeks is going to be demanding uh
Carter
16:46
uh you know to show the evidence against him he will he will bring it all out brought
Carter
16:51
brought out what what is being alleged of him uh whether that's the fullness or not these the the
Carter
16:57
the conservative party has made it very clear they're not going to talk to it so
Carter
17:00
so patrick brown should talk to it
Carter
17:01
he should show everybody exactly what's there he
Carter
17:04
he should push out the information he should demand uh accountability ability from the leadership election
Carter
17:16
He should demand resignations of that committee. He should point out that this
Carter
17:19
this obviously impacts the campaign tremendously and advantages only one candidate.
Carter
17:25
This is not the LEOC's job to come
Carter
17:29
come in and marshal
Carter
17:31
marshal this type of uh
Carter
17:36
error or mistake or crime this
Carter
17:39
this is elections canada's job um
Carter
17:41
um so what the hell are they doing why are they even into this because uh
Carter
17:45
uh they're the ones interpreting the rules the
Carter
17:47
elections canada is interpreting the rules look at jason kenney broke the rules all over the place you
Carter
17:51
you know he still was premier for four years for three and a half years you
Carter
17:55
you know so why
Carter
17:57
why why does does this need to happen? Um,
Carter
18:00
I, I'd go totally on the offensive. I would be pushing back on everything that I could possibly push back on because the
Carter
18:06
the truth of the matter is if he sold 150,000 memberships, those are 150,000 people that aren't voting. There
Carter
18:13
There is very little to
Carter
18:14
to motivate someone to vote for
Carter
18:16
someone who's not in the race. So
Carter
18:18
So you got to get back in the race or
Carter
18:20
or you've got to get them so angry that
Carter
18:22
that you say you got to vote for, this was obviously to promote Quote Pierre Pallievre.
Carter
18:29
This is obviously what this move was about.
Carter
18:32
With me out of the race, now all of a sudden, Pierre Pallievre can walk to victory.
Carter
18:36
That's why they did it.
Carter
18:38
Here's all my evidence that shows that this is bullshit.
Carter
18:41
And I'd use words like bullshit. I would jump in hard.
Carter
18:44
hard. I'd make sure that I'm getting covered in the nightly news
Carter
18:46
for my anger as much as I am for my defense.
Zain
18:51
Fighterleaderwinner.ca, just so you know, that is his URL. In case anyone wants to know. Corey, hold on. You know who else is having a conversation? I can guarantee you this. I know nothing with more certainty in my life than there are between three to 10 people right now in the Jean Charest campaign that are having a conversation.
Zain
19:10
what they see tonight, Corey, is it a mirage or is it a real opportunity for them? How do you sense it? Let's say you assume the voter universe stays the same.
Zain
19:20
Is this real or is this a mirage for Jean Charest? charrette it's
Corey
19:23
it's not an opportunity i don't think anybody in that conversation is saying this is an opportunity i think if anything the conversation's more oh fuck well there goes a narrow path to victory here because um
Corey
19:35
to to carter's point it
Corey
19:37
it makes the people who were going to vote for brown less likely to vote for brown it means there'll be no brown get out the vote right unless they decide to continue that in some way shape or form and drive it towards charrette and
Corey
19:49
and also you don't want to be in the charrette camp and go hard yourself after the party because you don't know the facts and if something has just dropped and it's irrefutable you
Corey
20:00
you could look pretty foolish at that point too and and looking foolish is not your brand or it's not supposed to be your brand if you're the if
Corey
20:06
you're the seasoned experienced john charrette carter
Zain
20:10
the seasoned experienced john charrette what is he thinking about carter what do you think finding
Carter
20:14
finding dirt on pierre poliev
Carter
20:17
know i mean the fact that they're keeping you agree with
Zain
20:19
with cory there's no opportunity in this no
Carter
20:21
no you got to go after pierre it's
Carter
20:22
it's all about pierre pierre pierre pierre i mean the
Carter
20:25
fact that they're keeping pierre palieva after all the outlandish and crazy things that he's said and tossing
Carter
20:31
um might be one way of going after it um
Carter
20:36
what are the rules i'm sure there's a rule in there that says you cannot uh embarrass
Carter
20:40
embarrass the party that is one of the primary rules that usually is brought forward in
Carter
20:44
in a leadership committee
Carter
20:47
i would be if i was is Jean Charest saying, here's the rule. Here's the embarrassing element.
Carter
20:52
Here's the rule. Here's where Pierre
Carter
20:54
Pierre Palliev has broken it. And
Carter
20:56
And just keep pushing on that because now
Carter
20:58
now that they've eliminated one candidate, basically Charest's only chance for victory is that they eliminate another.
Zain
21:06
We're going to leave that there. That, of course, brought to us by our sponsor, Flair Airlines. Flair Airlines come down to our level.
Zain
21:12
No, I'm kidding, Corey. It's not brought to us by Flair Airlines. Why would it be? They're not our sponsor. But do you know who is? is the Patrick Brown Calgary Stampede Barbecue Meet and Greet. That was the sponsor of that segment. That, of course, is happening Saturday, July 9th from 11 a.m. to 1 p.m. This is at the Don Hartman Northeast Sportsplex. Now, this is literally three blocks away from where my parents live. RSVP by July 8th. So you have some time, folks. If you do want to meet Patrick Brown, he will be at his Patrick Brown Calgary Stampede Barbecue Meet and Greet at the Don Hartman Northeast Sportsplex. uh i think he may need a stand-in by
Zain
21:49
by the time he gets there but worry not carter you
Zain
21:51
you guys all look the same to us it doesn't matter carter do you want to be patrick brown for a day i
Carter
21:55
i think cory should do it cory looks more like patrick brown i
Carter
21:58
i look more like charie if i put a wig on so
Carter
22:01
so that's what my goal is going to be well
Zain
22:04
well that's excellent i look forward to that meeting and that greeting let's move it on to our first segment our first segment cory it's the strategy scale we are here We've got a bunch of stuff to talk about. The Patrick Brown stuff was not regularly scheduled programming, but I do want to talk about some things that emerged in the week with our strategy scale. Here's how it works. You give me between a 1 to 10 on how well this strategy either performed, if you would rate it, if you would
Zain
22:29
would use it, and you tell me why you gave it that score, what could make it better. Corey, I'm going to start with you because I feel like Carter talked a lot in that last
Zain
22:36
segment. That's just his thing. He talks a lot. But Corey, former
Zain
22:40
former Saskatchewan Premier Brad Wall gave strategic advice to key convoy organizer.
Zain
22:45
The former premier was in contact with a key organizer of the Freedom Convoy anti-mandate protest, providing strategic advice through text messages, phone calls.
Zain
22:53
Quote, your group will likely be provoked by counter protesters and is important that
Zain
22:57
that they don't take the bait, he said in a text message. Also,
Zain
23:00
Also, it's really important that any of those who are trying to hitch their wagon to the convoy with ulterior motives and off messages, especially the racist stuff, be openly and roundly condemned. He gave advice to how to position, how to declare victory, what ideal headlines would be in the newspaper, so to speak.
Zain
23:16
Corey, on a strategy scale, 1 to 10, 1 being Brad Wall is fucked from future political office period, 10 being this is actually great for Brad Wall. Where do you rate this?
Zain
23:27
would put it at an eight and i'll tell you why oh
Zain
23:32
the scale one means brad wall is fucked from future political office yes i do yeah
Corey
23:37
lay it on first of all do we does do you see any evidence zane velgey that association with these people is disqualifying in today's conservative circles do you i
Zain
23:47
just i'm just here to ask the questions okay i'm just here to ask the questions i know you're looking for for someone to shadow box with that's what carter's it isn't today but
Carter
23:56
but it should be and it will be in the future i'm not done see this is this is carter's
Zain
24:02
carter's point is interesting
Corey
24:03
the reason why doesn't
Corey
24:04
doesn't matter you're all wrong and
Corey
24:06
and the reason why i think that it's actually uh leads pretty highly the other way is because it's
Corey
24:12
it's good advice yeah like the one thing that i was really struck by when i read brad wall's text is his advice is solid the entire way through but at least the text messages i saw yeah you should roundly condemn the racists. Yeah, you will try to be provoked.
Corey
24:27
Yeah, you should have just declared victory and left when you had the opportunity. On
Zain
24:30
On the provincial mandate, yeah. Yeah,
Corey
24:31
Yeah, exactly. In fact, that advice to declare victory and leave is the exact advice we gave on this podcast. So I don't think I could say otherwise.
Zain
24:41
No, and it's the exact same advice I repeated after I heard it on this podcast on the CBC course. So I mean, it's found a couple of homes, which I assume is where he got it from. Carter, that's conspiracy. Corey, I'll let you keep going.
Corey
24:54
it's good advice. And while we might find the individual he's talking to and the cause he's associating with onerous, it doesn't seem to be disqualifying. And
Corey
25:03
if you disqualify people based on their interactions with the convoy, you're going to be disqualifying the majority of the current conservative caucus. So, yeah, maybe
Corey
25:11
maybe in the future things change. Maybe the pendulum shifts. They
Corey
25:14
They will find a way to scrub this all. And by the way, Brad Wall will be at the front of that list because he'll be able to point to evidence he told them to condemn the racists. He'll point to evidence he told them to go home.
Zain
25:26
Carter, Corey gives it an eight.
Zain
25:28
Has he persuaded you? It seems like you're not there. You might be there yourself. No, I don't like Brad Wall. But has he persuaded you from what I assume is a lower...
Carter
25:34
I don't like Brad Wall. Okay, well, maybe put that
Zain
25:35
that aside. He's a dick.
Zain
25:37
dick. Put that aside.
Carter
25:38
And on top of that, when you're
Carter
25:41
you're reaching out to advise the convoy,
Carter
25:45
convoy, I think that it should be disqualifying for Pierre Pellievre. I think it should be disqualifying for Barber, that
Carter
25:51
that they are courting this group. I think it should be disqualifying for Candace Bergen.
Carter
25:55
All of these people should be... This convoy was advocating to have the prime minister essentially lynched. Oh, it's only the bad elements. elements. You know what? They took over Ottawa. They took over Ottawa. They embraced the bad elements. They decided that the racism was okay.
Carter
26:15
They decided that the violence was okay. They
Carter
26:17
They decided that they wanted to go back. They're back there again this weekend. This
Carter
26:20
This should be disqualifying. And you don't reach out to someone and offer good advice to bad people. We were doing it on a podcast. It's a little different than texting the organizers and saying, hey, you know Here's what I think you really should do. This is a bad move by a bad person. And that's just not going
Carter
26:40
going to change my opinion about Brad Wall. That's for damn sure.
Zain
26:43
And what does that equate to numerically, Carter? This is the strategy scale.
Carter
26:47
scale. It's an F.
Zain
26:47
On the scale part of the strategy scale, what is it? It's
Zain
26:54
Yeah, that makes sense. Actually, you know what? I got that. That actually translates. Stephen Carter, 675%.
Zain
27:01
675,000. That seems like the number for the Conservative Party of Canada, their membership list. Of course, tonight's message
Zain
27:06
message to members, tonight's activity could change that number, but 675,000.
Zain
27:12
From the perspective of the Liberals, how fucked are they on that scale to 1 to 10, Carter? 1 being, this is not a big deal at all. 10 being hyper fuckery. This is actually not great news.
Zain
27:23
1 could easily be justified as, this is a party membership. Okay, they're motivated. That doesn't actually mean anything.
Zain
27:27
10 could be, listen. um
Zain
27:32
to look at this seriously while
Carter
27:33
while i'm talking cory's going to google how many memberships were available in the uh in the uh 2012 or 13 race for justin trudeau but
Carter
27:41
but this is this is worrying this is um this
Carter
27:45
this is a big number i mean i don't remember exactly how many people voted for the conservative party but i think it's somewhere around five or six million people if
Carter
27:53
you're able to turn that into you
Carter
27:55
you know you basically uh
Carter
27:56
uh ten percent of of your vote is now your membership, that
Carter
28:00
that is a big, big base to build from.
Carter
28:04
they just threw away $150,000. But even then, I
Carter
28:07
I believe this is one of the largest memberships for
Carter
28:10
for a leadership ever by almost two times. Corey will correct me, of course, if I'm wrong here in just a few moments. But this is a big number. And I think that it should be scary. Because
Carter
28:23
Because at the end of the day, a large portion of those memberships were sold by Pierre Polyev's team.
Carter
28:29
And he is showing momentum.
Carter
28:30
momentum. And I think that what's happening is that
Carter
28:33
that the liberals are convincing themselves that Pierre is the opportunity for them to win
Carter
28:37
win that elusive fourth election for Justin Trudeau.
Carter
28:41
No one wins four. Justin, listen to the podcast. No one wins four. This
Carter
28:47
going to be over pretty
Carter
28:49
pretty quick. And I think it's a real signal
Carter
28:51
signal that people are ready for change, even if it's the lunacy that Pierre Pauliev represents.
Zain
28:59
Corey, 675,000 for the Liberals, 1 to 10 on that strategy scale, 1 being not a big deal, 10 being like off 4 or 5.
Corey
29:06
I would say it's a 6.
Corey
29:08
A couple of things I think that need to be discussed here.
Corey
29:12
here. And so in 2013, the Liberals sold 300,000 memberships, or sorry, they registered registered 300,000 supporters, 130,000 then registered to vote. There's a bit of a poll tax there, so that would be in some ways the equivalent. And then about 100,000 voted and 1 over 80%, I believe.
Corey
29:32
the numbers are different. Let's use the biggest version of that number, the 300,000. Well, that 300,000 is less than half of the number at hand here. So that's true. But if you kind of of run back the clock further and you look at the trajectory, you can see that parties are getting more and more efficient at dragging people into the doors here, at least for these instant leadership contests. And so I don't think that you say, oh, clearly they're twice as popular as the Trudeau liberals were in 2013.
Corey
30:04
But even if that were the case, I'd remind you the Trudeau liberals were the third party.
Corey
30:10
They were not the official opposition who
Corey
30:12
who had had actually won the popular vote in the election of these people. So it's a bit of a different context there. But
Corey
30:19
But they should still be worried.
Corey
30:20
And they should still be worried because the party, the Conservative Party, is showing an ability to organize. The Conservative Party is showing an ability to galvanize. And
Corey
30:29
And that does tend to be a precursor to election losses if you're a governing party.
Corey
30:33
again, I go back to this a lot, but it
Corey
30:36
it will not take a lot for the conservatives to win the next election they
Corey
30:40
they won the popular vote in the last two elections the liberals ran very
Corey
30:44
very efficient campaigns but
Corey
30:46
the thing about official efficient campaigns is they're
Corey
30:49
they're great until they're not and then your vote collapses and you lose a shit ton of seats and that's the risk for the liberals right now they
Carter
30:56
do generally agree with carter they could they could be returned to party to third party status uh
Zain
31:04
yeah i mean i see the math as you guys have said does play out in the efficient vote as core you've mentioned we've talked about this many times like
Zain
31:12
like the fine line right like efficient
Zain
31:15
can look like the the the most strategic uh
Zain
31:18
uh sound resource like a smart way to play a campaign or it could look like the dumb the dumbest thing you've ever done exactly because you win nothing thing and you lose a lot of races by a bit carter i'm gonna actually cory i'm gonna stick with you for our next one and let's go back to brad wall rebecca schultz a uh schultz schultz i want to say her name schultz no t and there's no t uh
Zain
31:43
uh okay fine i'll add a t if i want yeah you
Zain
31:50
don't want to let i don't want anyone to push me around yeah Yeah, you
Zain
31:53
stand strong. Corey, Rebecca
Zain
31:56
Rebecca Schultz, without the T, she is bringing Brad Wall into her race. Now, of course, she was a former staffer for Brad Wall. She did this minute-long video with him kind of asking her questions, how it's going, giving a loose endorsement. I wouldn't say it was full-throated. It
Zain
32:13
It was kind of like, listen, of all the people, this is the person that I like. How's it going? What's up with your race? Chilling at
Zain
32:19
what seemed like a rodeo. So, Corey,
Zain
32:22
the strategy for Schultz, 1 to 10, what do you think? One is like negligible, even counterproductive. 10 being like masterstroke. This makes good sense. For you, the Rebecca Schultz strategy of bringing Brad Wall, arguably, I think it was on the same day that this little mini controversy, which you, by the way, gave a high score to, erupted into the Alberta UCP race.
Corey
32:44
to give it a three, right? I've got many, many questions about judgment here. One. Okay. Why is a former premier of another province doing this? Why are they getting involved in Alberta's campaigns like this? I understand Brad Wall is
Corey
32:58
is just basically a Calgarian now, but it still seems like a bit of a breach of protocol. Two,
Corey
33:04
Two, why is Schultz doing this? Because it does just remind me that she's lived in Alberta for about 30 seconds, you
Corey
33:11
you know? Yeah, good point. You know, I think seven years, something to that effect. Not very long at all. When she became an MLA, it was a bit shocking how quickly she went from Alberta
Corey
33:22
Alberta citizen, so to speak, to MLA, right?
Corey
33:25
And so I don't know if you want to be reminding people of those deep connections you have and that you have only been in this province less than my kid
Corey
33:36
kid in grade two has been in this province. Right.
Corey
33:41
So that is curious to me. uh but if i want to give it a couple of points nudging it back up here well
Corey
33:47
well actually we can't put aside the fact that they they plowed forward with this the day that those texts came out yeah
Corey
33:53
yeah they should have had the sense both again both brad wall and schultz's campaign to say let's just do this another day now is not the day uh it didn't make sense to do it when they did and if brad wall was insisting on it that's crazy if the schultz campaign was afraid to ask because they thought it made it look like it was questionable that's cowardice and crazy too
Corey
34:14
but if we want to kick it back up the other way a couple of points this is not a campaign that i think has kind of it's
Corey
34:21
it's an interesting one to me it's the same type of people who supported jeff davison to be mayor of calgary who would be you know
Zain
34:28
know interested in the schultz campaign there's
Corey
34:30
there's not you know there's more cocktail crowd than organizer crowd would be my dinosaur analysis of it and
Corey
34:36
and uh brad wall endorsing is actually very in line with that analysis and assessment like oh you know who's very interesting and who could perhaps anyways that's they
Corey
34:47
they they uh but they see it as a way to provide credibility to a campaign that right now is lost in a sea of many campaigns
Zain
34:57
that's good that's an interesting comparison core you know what the other similarity that they both have is that they're both missing a letter in their last name uh
Zain
35:03
uh it It should be Davidson.
Zain
35:05
It should be Davidson. What the fuck are these people doing, Carter? They're just broken. They're
Carter
35:09
They're broken human beings.
Zain
35:12
Well, their names are. Yeah.
Zain
35:13
Their names are. Their names are. Carter, letters have disowned them. Why should anyone? Okay, that's good. I'm running the campaign against these people. You're so good. Carter,
Zain
35:22
the strategy. Wall coming in, endorsing Rebecca Schultz.
Zain
35:27
One to ten. I
Zain
35:29
I think I did it. I think I actually nailed
Zain
35:32
Let me tell you why. Okay, put your hatred for Brad Wall aside for a second.
Zain
35:39
We don't need it polluting the show,
Carter
35:40
show, okay? There are two things I don't do in campaigns.
Carter
35:44
Two things that are super important that everybody else seems to think are super important.
Carter
35:47
And I don't do them. One
Carter
35:50
Endorsements is a general rule are stupid.
Carter
35:53
And because you're supposed to be the person who's the leader. Why
Carter
35:56
Why do you need other leaders to endorse you?
Carter
35:58
The second thing that I think is stupid are slogans.
Carter
36:01
And Brad Wall is just a walking slogan. Logan. That's all he has going for him is he's Brad Wall.
Carter
36:07
That's all he has. So
Carter
36:08
So he's his his weakness, his inability.
Carter
36:12
Every other premier would know. Don't get involved in a in another province's race. Every other former premier would know. Don't
Carter
36:18
Don't get involved in the races that happen after you.
Carter
36:21
This is a guy who should be standing down and standing on the sidelines. But he just can't help himself. He's
Carter
36:27
He's found himself back into the stories and back into to the ability you know it it's a bad day to do an endorsement it's
Carter
36:34
it's a bad endorsement this
Carter
36:35
this is the problem with endorsement
Carter
36:37
endorsement happens and all of a sudden you find out that you're getting endorsed by a guy who's working with the with the convoy organizer uh
Carter
36:43
uh despite the fact that cory seemed to think that that was okay that's not okay for a large number of voters so
Carter
36:50
they've just made themselves worse off by taking someone's endorsement who's not actually going to be able to move many votes because it is the cocktail crowd they can all have a cocktail together and talk about how great brad was if he could only speak french he'd have been the prime minister but he can't so he won't and he's never going to be the prime minister he's never going to be anything again and now he's dragging you down to the bottom of the bottom of the ocean with him
Carter
37:18
did i make myself like someone
Zain
37:19
someone liked brad wall he's like someone liked brad wall for a bit it saw a bunch of promise in them and then things went south well
Carter
37:27
he tried to have me fired from my job so
Carter
37:29
so you know it it does okay well it does make me a little bit bitter i
Corey
37:35
implies a certain incompetence he did not bring to that particular exercise well
Carter
37:39
well i wound up having to resign and taking all that money that they gave me and
Carter
37:44
you know starting my own company and making tons Tons of money again.
Carter
37:48
Very hard. It was a hard trying time.
Zain
37:53
time. Okay, well, I didn't know any of that.
Corey
37:55
That's the Hill and Olden. Thank you for bringing it. That's why I left you guys at the Hill and Olden.
Zain
37:59
Can we get back to the firefighters and your wife, please? Can we get back to a more comfortable topic of conversation? I did note,
Carter
38:05
note, for those watching on the video, you will have just seen Corey take a look at the time card.
Carter
38:11
You will have just seen that.
Zain
38:14
Yeah. We don't edit the show. Until we edit the show.
Zain
38:19
Carter, I'm going to stick with you for our next one.
Zain
38:23
We try to avoid American politics. We absolutely do. But
Zain
38:26
there's a strategy question here in the US. It's not about January 1. It's related to January 6.
Zain
38:32
It's a big one. And I want to get your take on it.
Zain
38:35
is thinking about announcing a historically early run for president so
Zain
38:41
he can get out in front of the allegations made and the testimony of the 1-6 committees, which are ongoing.
Zain
38:51
The strategy, Carter, in your mind, and which would, of course, just extend the point, make it harder for Merrick Garland and the Justice Department perhaps to go after a
Zain
39:00
for president rather than a sitting citizen-slash-former president.
Zain
39:05
the strategy for Trump to go early on
Zain
39:09
a scale of 1 to 10 the 1 is this is terrible the 10 is this is a master stroke Trump
Zain
39:15
Trump should do it tomorrow if he can what are you thinking on this?
Carter
39:19
From his standpoint it's a brilliant strategy
Carter
39:22
it's going to be hard enough to take a former president away in handcuffs imagine how hard it would be to take a former president that is running to be the president again away in handcuffs that
Carter
39:33
that has the power of the
Carter
39:35
the speeches That has the rallies, that has all
Carter
39:38
all of that. I mean, can you imagine
Carter
39:40
imagine if he called for his supporters to blockade?
Carter
39:44
You know, if the FBI showed up at Trump Tower one day and
Carter
39:47
and he sends out, well, he can't tweet, but he
Carter
39:49
he sends out some sort of a message demanding
Carter
39:53
demanding that his supporters surround Trump Tower and not let the FBI exit. it. The
Carter
39:57
The FBI aren't exiting that building.
Carter
40:00
He has a tremendous amount of power. And by becoming a candidate again, he's just made that bigger. So
Carter
40:08
So I think it's
Carter
40:11
it's a terrible thing. But
Carter
40:13
But at the same time,
Carter
40:15
it's pretty smart for him to have done it.
Zain
40:20
Corey, talk to me about this. Trump announcing bouncing early on the strategy scale one to ten what are you giving it for trump the
Corey
40:29
think it's a very bad idea for him uh for a couple of reasons first of all it's not going to work like it's not going to shield him from consequences it's
Corey
40:36
it's so early and so far out and
Corey
40:39
and he himself has shown that such norms can be just shattered and nobody is going to make the decision to arrest
Corey
40:45
arrest him or not based on his gambit here because we've
Corey
40:49
we've seen him try this before and then then we saw January 6th. The stakes
Corey
40:53
stakes are too high, and people realize that now.
Corey
40:56
And so it won't get him what he wants, and it will make it less likely that he actually becomes president in 2024. Here's why.
Corey
41:05
One, it hurts his fundraising. The minute he announces, he is subject to a limit for the entire campaign cycle. And that's usually a limit that's for, I
Corey
41:14
I don't know, 10 months.
Zain
41:15
Truncated period of time, or significantly
Zain
41:17
more truncated than what he'd
Corey
41:18
he'd be having here.
Corey
41:19
Now we are talking two
Corey
41:21
two and a half years and
Corey
41:22
and that and you can't go back to those donors again in that two and a half year period for that presidential campaign.
Corey
41:28
And the other reason is he
Corey
41:32
he will become the sideshow that blows up. It is not impossible for me that the GOP does not manage to win either the House or Senate because
Corey
41:41
because Donald Trump moves the focus from an economy that's really faltering and
Corey
41:45
and inflation, which, while a global problem, every local leader is having to deal with, moves
Corey
41:51
moves the focus off that, moves the focus onto this guy who is just being brushed
Corey
41:55
brushed in these, you know, January 6th, you know, committee hearings,
Corey
41:59
hearings, which is, again, my
Corey
42:01
my opinion on the committee hearings hasn't changed. It's not going to fundamentally remake America. You're not going to have Republicans all of a sudden see the light. But the swing voters, if they're voting on Donald Trump rather than voting on local Republican candidate who promises to combat inflation, that's
Corey
42:19
that's going to hurt the GOP. so
Corey
42:21
so uh if he manages to enter into the race not get himself that protection blow up his ability to fundraise which the party will know and the party grandees will know and screw them in november he
Corey
42:33
he will be a very weakened individual that's when the desantis of the world stand up and say this
Corey
42:39
screwed himself screwed our party and might just be screwed legally we
Corey
42:44
we can't go with him. So I don't see the logic of it at
Corey
42:47
at this point for him at all.
Zain
42:49
Carter, any retort to that from what Corey said? I'm curious to hear it because you thought this was a pretty
Zain
42:54
pretty sharp strategy for Trump. Of course, Corey's outlining some of the pitfalls in it.
Carter
42:58
I mean, this is not a guy who's suffered from any problems with fundraising in the past. He's got an enormous pack that
Carter
43:04
that he can run with. I mean, there are rules and
Carter
43:06
and there are rules. And then there's how Trump uses the rule.
Carter
43:10
He is able to get around these things by ignoring
Carter
43:13
ignoring some of the rules and the norms of the American electoral system. Are we shocked by this? No, because he's ignored all the rules and all the norms to this point. My thinking is that this is a good move for him because he gets to be in the limelight when they try and arrest him. If
Carter
43:33
If he's sitting in his, is you know because they're they're going to arrest that was going to happen either way
Corey
43:40
that was going to happen either either
Zain
43:41
way steve and we thought that was going to happen to you in the first five minutes of the show until you told us
Corey
43:45
it was a firefighter probably they will probably send a news team to watch donald trump get arrested don't know if he needs to be candidate for that
Carter
43:53
there'll be one or two but the difference is his ability to uh to
Carter
43:57
to draw the the supporters the supporters are going to be rabidly there it's
Zain
44:02
it's going to be crazy it's copter one copter one on on the on live on location it's gonna be like a car chase carter they're just gonna be like on top of the gonna
Zain
44:10
gonna follow him wherever he is in mar-a-lago we
Carter
44:12
we should do a live show gonna
Zain
44:13
gonna find him he's gonna be stroking some stroking down the
Carter
44:16
the la freeways i don't
Zain
44:20
yo the fact the fact that the bronco is back and looks sick it does look entirely different podcast it does look really really good yeah
Zain
44:28
while we're on different topics carter is kd going to toronto uh
Carter
44:31
uh kd should be in toronto he should have been drafted into toronto and it's been a real shame that he uh wasn't able to realize his lifelong dream by landing in toronto fucking
Zain
44:40
fucking nailed it you nailed it that's so good i can't i can't i'm not even you got no notes no notes no notes carter nicely done well landed he has been a lifelong raptors fan air canada which by the way flare
Zain
44:55
flare airlines need to that needs a player that just has a nickname. Anyways, Corey, I'm going to stick with you for this next one. We're talking about Trudeau and his government strategy.
Zain
45:03
Melanie Jolie is going to attend the G20 despite Russia's presence. She's saying, I'm not going to shake the
Zain
45:11
the Russian counterpart's hand at the G20, but she's still attending despite Russia showing up to the G20 conference. On the strategy scale of 1 to 10 for the Trudeau government, 1 being the obviously this is a terrible strategy, 10 being this is great. what do you think this is i
Corey
45:27
think it's a four i ultimately don't think it will have much domestic consequence because these things don't but um ultimately it strengthens russia or weakens the the wall of western resolve uh which was falling apart now shamefully and so i don't feel good about it but it's not going to hurt them politically i
Corey
45:51
i don't believe it will carter
Zain
45:53
carter What do you think, Canada,
Zain
45:55
Canada, 1 to 10, sending Melanie Jolie to the G20 despite Russia's presence?
Carter
45:59
I think you have to do diplomacy.
Carter
46:01
I think you have to do diplomacy, and you can't just walk away from the other 18 countries just
Carter
46:08
Russia's there. I think that ignoring Russia is
Carter
46:10
is the right thing to do, but they shouldn't be invited, but they are, and ignoring
Zain
46:18
Carter, we do this for the listeners who listen live. And, of course, I'm not on the YouTube stream, but I am getting a text question, which I feel like is very apt to take right now, which is, what's older, you or the stereo deck behind you? We need a giant expose on this. Lay it on us. What's older?
Carter
46:34
From my first marriage.
Carter
46:39
wish I was joking. It comes from my first marriage. I don't
Corey
46:42
don't know what to say about you, ever. Yeah.
Zain
46:44
Yeah. He's just too honest all the time. Well, listener, you got your answer. Yeah.
Zain
46:49
Carter, I'm going to stick with you for our next one on the strategy scale. This one's interesting to me. Yeah.
Zain
46:55
We're going to go across the pond, as they say. Yeah.
Zain
46:57
The jolly old England. Yeah. Where we have two
Zain
47:02
two cabinet members. Yeah. Three overall, but two cabinet members in Boris Johnson's government, the health secretary and the treasury chief, Sajid Javid and Rishi Sunak, resigning
Zain
47:13
resigning within minutes of each other from his government, from the Johnson government, putting out letters on Twitter, apparently not coordinated, which, of course, England finds hard to believe that two brown guys didn't coordinate. Which, by the way, if you don't want to know if colonialism is still alive, that is a good answer. If white people think that brown people will just be like, oh, yeah, they must know each other. They must have coordinated this, despite the fact that they say they did not. Carter, the
Zain
47:38
the strategy scale here for these two, we've heard that these individuals have had ambitions to become prime minister themselves, to be leaders of
Zain
47:45
of the the Conservative Party, especially with the
Zain
47:47
the Treasury Chief Rishi Sunak, highly touted as being a rising star in the Conservative ranks in the UK.
Zain
47:54
Most of our listeners may not even know about this situation, but I want to get deeper into how you resign. Carter, what
Zain
47:59
what do you think of this, between a scale of 1 to 10 on the strategy scale, their back-to-back, non-coordinated resignation letters?
Carter
48:06
I mean, I think it's going to have a real impact on the Prime Minister. I mean, And he took no time in replacing the
Carter
48:11
the chancellor of the exchequer, at least. But nonetheless,
Carter
48:15
nonetheless, I mean, it's still a blow to
Carter
48:18
to lose two of your top five cabinet ministers is a big hit. And there's
Carter
48:23
there's tremendous, tremendous pushback on on the prime minister already. Let's keep in mind that he barely survived his
Carter
48:29
his last leadership vote. And, you
Carter
48:33
you know, I think the clock was ticking in any case. so
Carter
48:36
so now for him to see that the clock is ticking and he's losing uh
Carter
48:39
members it really does beg the question if he's going to be able to uh
Carter
48:46
and no cory we're not looking for a pedantic explanation of what beg the question here and
Carter
48:50
and how to use it yeah so if you could just you could see it in his eyes you could just skip over that we'll move on to it's the look of a highly
Zain
48:59
highly educated uneducated person who really wants to lecture someone at 11 49 nine eastern uh cory i'll let you have the floor please go ahead yeah
Corey
49:10
yeah the two letters were very totally different um they
Corey
49:13
one of one of them was much longer and was bragging about javid's accomplishments right uh yeah i was such a balls to the wall kick-ass health minister i wanted to do this job but i can't because you suck for us was basically yeah yeah was the theme and then uh The one from Sunak was much more like, I
Corey
49:35
I just wish we could work this out, but we can't. It's not an it's not you, it's me, but it's much closer to that. Yeah, yeah,
Corey
49:42
So very tonally different. And it did seem to actually have a clearer trigger, which was the economic update to the United States.
Corey
49:52
So I guess here's the thing. I don't know if it was coordinated or not. I think there are degrees of coordination. It could be I've
Corey
49:58
I've fucking had it with Boris. Yeah, me too. to both go back to their offices and
Corey
50:03
make the same decision that they've riled each other up for could
Corey
50:06
could be, there was an event within the caucus or the cabinet meeting that
Corey
50:10
that triggered them both to come to the conclusion. This guy's fucking done. Could
Corey
50:14
Could be maybe a third party's whispering in both their ears about how
Corey
50:17
how bad Boris Johnson was today on an entirely different matter, right?
Zain
50:22
That you don't need to believe in conspiracy
Corey
50:24
to believe that two events are connected. And
Corey
50:27
you don't need to believe that they were coordinating to believe the two events were connected there's obviously a very clear connection here it's a deeply unpopular prime minister um
Corey
50:36
um what i find very interesting however is that um they
Corey
50:42
they have of course i
Corey
50:44
i don't think we talked about it but they have this committee that
Corey
50:47
that allows them to call a vote of non-confidence in their prime minister and
Corey
50:53
and once that vote fails they're not allowed to do that vote for another year they just had that vote so there's not a formal mechanism for the caucus to to oust boris johnson now i
Corey
51:02
i think in any normal context losing both your minister of health and your finance minister that's that's it that's game over but you just resign but
Corey
51:11
but if boris johnson's not willing to go there's
Corey
51:15
there's no way to make them at this point you
Corey
51:17
you know unless they want to pull the old like simpson stonecutters thing where they all go start the ancient society of no borises right as a whole new political party for that i mean it's his party so be curious to see what what happens next but definitely feels like the temperature's as high as it can be well
Zain
51:33
well it's a curious and interesting day for definitely for browns and politics carter um what
Zain
51:39
what that's the same joke four times in one episode why would i do that yeah
Zain
51:43
yeah because you don't pay me enough patreon um carter yeah
Zain
51:46
yeah it was good yeah carter is
Zain
51:49
is there a right way to resign in politics regardless is there like a situation agnostic right way to resign i've always been curious about this because Corey described two different letters by two different individuals who probably have two different goals so one could say easily contextually their goals are different one clearly wants to be the fucking prime minister like you could tell and
Zain
52:07
and and everything you know leading up to how he's built his coalition to how he's communicated to what he's even said indicates
Zain
52:13
indicates as such another's probably been like listen it's probably the best gig I'll ever have and and and I might not get it again so I'm fine with that so
Zain
52:20
so I'm gonna make it a celebration about me but Carter situation agnostic is her best way and best practice of how to reside in politics six i've
Carter
52:26
i've never had the chance zane um
Carter
52:31
no there is a
Zain
52:32
a best way that's that's what you call a three minute setup question yeah for a stephen carter five foot six spike over a two foot net nicely done that's
Corey
52:40
that's that under six foot dunking contest oh
Zain
52:42
oh my god i just realized carter you would do amazing we'll put we'll put an eight foot net out there with a trampoline you'll still you'll still probably be a couple foot short what's
Carter
52:50
what's with the height bias okay here's what what we're going to do. There are two good ways to resign.
Carter
52:55
One is to be no impact at all and just disappear. And
Carter
52:58
And the other is to have impact beyond the resignation itself.
Carter
53:02
Right. And I think that these
Carter
53:04
these two were an example of trying to have impact beyond the simple
Carter
53:08
simple resignation. There are others who just resign and just disappear. Like Mark Garneau left the cabinet, left politics,
Carter
53:16
politics, left everything and just kind of disappeared.
Carter
53:19
No one knows where he is anymore. He's just gone.
Zain
53:22
So we see these examples. He went to space. I'm pretty sure he's in space right now. I
Carter
53:26
I think you're incorrect, but we'll just go with that.
Zain
53:31
and Julie Payette are just hanging out together.
Carter
53:32
together. Exactly. What happened to the former astronauts in the last 18 months? But the point is that these two people wanted to have impact beyond just
Carter
53:42
And they did that. Whether it it was coordinated or not, whether it was planned to go with a fiscal update or not, whether it was, it was designed to hurt and it did.
Carter
53:51
And that is, that's
Carter
53:53
that's what they did. Now, those
Carter
53:55
those two ways, I don't think there's one better than the other. I think that they're both used for political purposes. And this was used for a political purpose. Will it work out? Only time will tell. But it certainly wasn't done just to get out of government, just to go home and not be someone who's not involved in government.
Zain
54:14
Round us out on this, Corey. Is there a best practice, situation agnostic way
Zain
54:20
way to resign that you would recommend to someone if you were advising them?
Corey
54:26
I know. I think it's so very context dependent. Your context, the organization's context, all of that. And a resignation that would be statesperson-like in one sitting would be clownish in another. And it really just depends on what's going on around you and what you want to get out of it here. so
Corey
54:43
if your goal is to have a next act you want to set up the next act if your goal is not it's to set up your legacy just to sort of grossly simplify normally
Corey
54:51
normally uh you you're thinking about whether that legacy includes for
Corey
54:57
for example if your brand is standing up and always saying the unpopular thing that will lead to one kind of resignation and if your brand is being the
Corey
55:03
the consummate team player and still so you've
Corey
55:07
you've got to know yourself you got to know your party and you got to know generally
Corey
55:10
generally uh you know the environment that you're within to know the best way to resign we're
Zain
55:15
we're gonna leave that segment there move it on to our final segment carter it's our over under it's our lightning round stephen carter after
Zain
55:23
after tonight the news of patrick brown is
Zain
55:27
is the health of the conservative party of canada better
Zain
55:30
better or worse in your mind well
Zain
55:32
well i think it's the announcement
Carter
55:34
yeah i think it's worse because i've been on team sheree brown from the
Carter
55:39
And this hurts Team Sheree Brown. So this gives Pierre Palliev a stronger chance of winning. And therefore, it is worse for the party, worse for the country.
Zain
55:49
Corey, zoom out. The health of the Conservative Party, better or worse, right? That probably means a coronation or close to it. First ballot victory for Pierre Palliev. Is this helpful for the health of the Conservative movement? We've also talked about the 675,000 memberships.
Zain
56:04
Better or worse after tonight? night i
Corey
56:06
i don't know enough to say with certainty but let me paint you a picture of how it's much worse right sure and not in the same way that steven's talking about i mean in the sense of like the party potentially winning or not yeah
Corey
56:20
maybe uh pierre pauliev uh
Corey
56:22
uh was always going to win and
Corey
56:25
and now he's going to win with an asterisk because maybe the party is going to disqualify a number of votes maybe the fact the candidate's gone is going to cause a problem and maybe when it's all said and done that first ballot victory is 55 45 but we know 180 000
Corey
56:42
000 people didn't vote and
Corey
56:44
and maybe they were never going to vote but
Corey
56:46
but now you can say it's because of foul play if petrick brown had been in the race maybe they'd vote for them we'll start doing that thing where we assign vote intent to people who didn't vote and assuming it's different than there
Corey
56:56
there there the other thing is this is not necessarily the end of it just because ian brody says it's the end of it uh there could be calls for for court challenges judicial review of these things the leadership rules always say not appealable guess what people always try to appeal these kinds of things anyhow and
Corey
57:13
and push them forward could be in the courts could
Corey
57:16
could be a cloud that hangs over everybody in discovery you could maybe find i'm
Corey
57:20
i'm not i don't believe this happened i just want to stress this i'm i'm not throwing this out there in a conspiracy theory sense but say
Corey
57:26
say there was friendly text back and forth between ian brody and pierre polly and that
Corey
57:30
that showed up during discovery and maybe it didn't mean anything besides ian brody's being a nice person to a person he knows right but it starts to call into question is the leoc actually neutral did pierre polly have have this uh you know uh
Corey
57:43
uh locked up i
Corey
57:45
i don't think if i was the polly have campaign i'd I'd be very excited about this because I do think it creates a lot of potential for additional tensions in a party that I am going to be having to deal with because I am probably going to win if
Corey
57:59
I'm Pierre Poglia. So I,
Corey
58:01
I, yeah, that's, that's my answer. I think it could actually weaken the party. It
Corey
58:04
It also makes it more likely that if there's an outright splintering where people say, you don't want us in the party, this is bullshit. This
Corey
58:11
This was guilty until proven innocent. You didn't actually allow due process to go out. you just decided you didn't like our
Corey
58:18
apparently insufficient answers to your accusations without evidence uh
Corey
58:23
uh well you know what we're
Corey
58:25
we're not having it anymore this is too corrupt we're going to go start the the
Corey
58:29
the patrick brown party or whatever it is and siphon off a couple
Zain
58:37
pope francis is coming to canada the
Zain
58:40
the political win for justin trudeau as it relates to the pope's visit here of course as you remember one of the the items around the truth and reconciliation um i should say promise that trudeau has made is is the official apology by the pope is this contextual is
Zain
58:54
is it not overrated underrated the political win of the pope touching base
Zain
58:58
base in canada over the course of the summer or of course this month as well i
Corey
59:03
i guess it's probably
Corey
59:05
probably i don't know i think overrated because i at the end of the day i don't think that the pope's involvement in things changes too much there's a celebrity factor to be sure um
Corey
59:15
i also think that it's a pretty fraught situation it will be hard to meet expectations going forward and this isn't like a normal papal visit where you just sort of wave your hand from the popemobile there's serious reckoning
Corey
59:29
and um and so i think there's certain risk for the government as well lots could go wrong um maybe it all sort of stays on the rails and and it just becomes a big celebrity moment where you can't turn on the television without seeing the Pope, without seeing the real, I guess. It's not like he's going to be the Pope the whole time. No, no. But, yeah, I don't think that this is going to be like a massive win.
Corey
59:54
there's a bunch of things that make that
Zain
59:56
Gardner, is this going to be a massive win, overrated or underrated, as the Pope touches Canadian soil later this month?
Carter
1:00:02
This is a choreographed visit with a choreographed outcome and a choreographed process. process everything
Carter
1:00:06
everything that's going to happen in here i mean right down to the paving of
Carter
1:00:10
of the the you know the roads on the masco trees reserve
Carter
1:00:17
the the trudeau government knows exactly what's going to happen and
Carter
1:00:21
and therefore i would expect that they would be able to turn it into a massive win if
Carter
1:00:25
if they don't then
Carter
1:00:26
then they are the worst communicators in the history of mankind
Corey
1:00:31
let me tell you though the challenge is such
Corey
1:00:34
such a tightly scripted event when somebody breaks the script can can actually be worse right if all of a sudden it's being faced with protesters in ways that they can't handle or
Corey
1:00:45
or in ways they can but their handling of the protesters all of a sudden become an issue in their own right i think there's a lot of challenges
Zain
1:00:53
carter i'm going to stick with you for our next one uh you're whispering into patrick brown's ear uh this uh this fine wednesday morning as i sit here in toronto as the clock just strikes midnight carter what
SPEAKER_02
1:01:08
sacrifices i make for the pod
Zain
1:01:10
pod you're you're telling this to patrick brown sweet nothings at midnight eastern what are you telling him this evening what are you telling patrick brown um
Zain
1:01:18
um about his upcoming barbecue
Zain
1:01:21
barbecue on july 9th at the don hartman sports club no carter what are you telling him about his leadership what are you telling me should do don't
Carter
1:01:27
first thing you're going to do is you're going to do a stand-up press conference with every single member of the press. It's coming out right now that the reason
Carter
1:01:39
reason that they're suggesting this is that staff and employees' salaries appear to be being paid by corporations. That's
Carter
1:01:46
That's a pretty big allegation to make and very difficult to prove.
Carter
1:01:50
You better better have ironclad proof of that. Otherwise, if that's the sole allegation, Patrick
Carter
1:01:57
Patrick Brown can stand up and scream all day long.
Carter
1:02:00
There's lots of people who have day jobs with corporations who volunteer with
Carter
1:02:04
with campaigns outside of their working hours. They
Carter
1:02:07
They better have ironclad proof or
Carter
1:02:09
or this thing's heading to court.
Carter
1:02:11
And if I was Patrick Brown, I'd be standing up there and demanding injunctions from the court. I'd be demanding resignations from LEOC.
Carter
1:02:18
I'd be pushing, pushing, pushing pushing that's my advice but
Zain
1:02:21
importantly you're saying not cancel anything keep going keep going we're
Carter
1:02:25
we're still in the fucking campaign a 10 stampede yeah
Carter
1:02:27
yeah of course i didn't do anything wrong boom
Carter
1:02:30
boom if this is all you got if this is if this is the allegation fuck
Zain
1:02:37
cory what are you whispering into patrick brown's ear this evening
Corey
1:02:41
yeah if ross sherman can launch patrick brown can land he can come to town keep
Corey
1:02:46
keep doing all of of those things. That
Corey
1:02:49
Thank you. Look, that breaking news that it's perhaps about corporations paying salaries, in a way, I think that's
Corey
1:02:57
that's so much less than I expected. Obviously, that would be pretty serious if it was a big circumvention of campaign finance through that.
Corey
1:03:05
But it's difficult to prove, to Carter's point, and it's difficult to prove intent. So
Corey
1:03:10
So this corporation pays somebody's salary and they go work on the Brown campaign. campaign you
Corey
1:03:14
how are you going to prove that the brown campaign knew that and orchestrated that
Corey
1:03:18
that and it wasn't the corporation violating
Corey
1:03:25
obviously there are ways but
Corey
1:03:26
but it does create a
Corey
1:03:29
and so it'll be very interesting to see what happens and if that's what there is out
Corey
1:03:34
out there then yeah i think patrick brown will keep fighting and um and
Corey
1:03:39
and everything i said about the risks of the conservative party i'll I'll just, I'll
Corey
1:03:42
I'll take a highlighter out and I'll double
Zain
1:03:47
Corey, I'm going to, this final question, I'm going to start with you.
Zain
1:03:50
As it relates to,
Zain
1:03:53
and we're only probably about 10 to 15 episodes away, as it relates to episode 1,000 of the strategy point,
Zain
1:04:01
overrated or underrated, probably 10 to 15, like 10 to 30, probably in that range, away from this episode, overrated or underrated episode 1,000, and the listeners i know i know they want it i know they want it in their ears underrated
Corey
1:04:16
underrated zane um we of course have so much of a back catalog that we can pull to should we decide to do greatest hits we have so many great guests that we've had that if we decide to do kind of like a reunion show yeah and uh you know we have such an unbroken consistent record uh that uh you know we never miss a beat episode 1000 of course cannot disappoint uh given everything i've said yeah i mean
Carter
1:04:43
mean i mean i'm looking
Corey
1:04:44
looking forward to it people
Carter
1:04:44
people remember 500 that was big um yeah
Corey
1:04:48
yeah that's true you know they
Carter
1:04:49
they remember 750 i
Corey
1:04:51
i still get stopped i still get stopped whenever i go to shawinigan yeah
Zain
1:04:54
yeah i mean that's wild i mean and speaking of speaking
Zain
1:04:57
speaking of reunion episodes and big i mean someone will probably die on a peloton on episode 1000 we were not we won't tell you you which which person the
Zain
1:05:05
the deep part it's
Zain
1:05:06
it's a deep cut but carter you know someone's
Zain
1:05:10
carter carter missed the boat entirely carter and talk talk episode thousand up a bit more and tell people uh don't be specific why would you but tell people like what they'd be in store for there's
Carter
1:05:20
there's gonna be a group of people who complain about our numbering system and
Carter
1:05:23
and and here's the response here's the response um the
Carter
1:05:26
the numbering system is in place because 1000 is is getting better, okay? It's not getting worse. We're not pushing it off because it's getting worse. It's getting better.
Carter
1:05:36
So just know, everybody
Carter
1:05:38
everybody remembers episode 935. They remember episode 935 because the buildup from 934 made 935 a star, right?
Zain
1:05:48
I'm just gonna read one of the reviews for episode 935. Five stars, orgasmic. I mean,
Zain
1:05:52
I'm just reading a review from a listener. 935, they loved it. They loved
Carter
1:05:56
loved it. Orgasmic? I feel uncomfortable. uncomfortable i feel like i'm being harassed that's so good right
Carter
1:06:02
right like that's amazing people love that jesus
Zain
1:06:04
jesus prior to uh
Zain
1:06:06
uh cory episode 1000 like i said only 10 to 30 episodes away it is it is going to happen and it is going to be it's going to be an event let's say that it's going to be a major event but for now we'll leave it there that's a wrap on episode 999.99 of the strategist my name is zane belgium with me as always steven carter cory hogan and we'll see you next