Episode 992: Live in Edmonton: Giving it 150.4%

Zain 0:01

is A Strategist, episode 992. My name is Zain Velji. With me, as always, Corey Hogan, Stephen Carter, and a live audience in Edmonton.

Corey 0:14

Very nice. Very, very, very nice. Very nice. Let's settle

Corey 0:18

We're at the Maharaja Banquet Hall, Corey. We are at the Maharaja Banquet Hall. You're making that very clear with your attire tonight. It looks

Zain 0:25

looks good. This is what I always wear. I don't know what you're talking about. this

Zain 0:29

literally what I always wear I'm

Zain 0:32

I'm not gonna accuse you of anything but yeah Carter

Carter 0:35

I've been here all day I

Zain 0:38

know you've been here

Zain 0:38

day you've transformed this space I've

Carter 0:40

I've set every fucking chair up can

Zain 0:42

can I tell you something you have set every chair up I

Zain 0:45

I like this tree motif now I know most people will be listening to this this tree motif behind this can you explain the symbolism that comes with it we

Carter 0:52

we are the growing limbs of politics in Alberta Thank you,

Zain 0:57

I really appreciate it. No worries. By the way, I like this setup. Those listening won't be able to tell, but I'm sitting on what looks like a throne with a very deep back in it. You two are sitting in a love seat.

Carter 1:13

Not only a love seat, an incredibly uncomfortable love seat. How

Carter 1:18

are you guys feeling there? I just want to ask. I am four inches shorter in this love seat.

Zain 1:23

I look like an Indian game show host

Zain 1:27

like you guys are a trial for your colonial crimes and I'm

Zain 1:40

what else did you do beside the railway system

Zain 1:44

that's the only thing you ever tell me what

Zain 1:46

what else have you done because

Zain 1:47

because the rest of it seems pretty negative negative, if

Zain 1:51

if I'm being honest.

Zain 1:58

Should we move on to our first segment? I think we should.

Zain 2:02

Let's move on to our first segment. Our first segment, reviewing Carter's leadership again. Now, we do this every live show. We review Stephen Carter's leadership. You know, as longtime listeners of this show will know,

Zain 2:15

Stephen Carter has had a rocky, rocky

Zain 2:18

rocky tenure with the podcast. He's in, he's out, and we always like to ensure that

Zain 2:25

that we have the top talent in

Zain 2:29

And so, Corey, do you want to explain a bit about the leadership review process that we ran?

Corey 2:34

Yeah, so you would have noticed when you came in, underneath your chairs, there were ballots. I'm sure you all saw your ballots. You all remember getting the

Carter 2:39

the ballots? Yeah, you got

Corey 2:40

got the ballots, right? Yes, you did. And

Corey 2:42

And when you saw me at the front, too, I gave you extra

Corey 2:45

extra help. Yeah, Stephen was supposed to hand out the ballots and give people assistance with the ballots. And, well,

Corey 2:51

well, I don't know, Zane, let's just go to the results here. Yeah,

Zain 2:54

Yeah, let's go to the results here and let's see what we have. We have 51.4 percent yes and 99 percent no, Carter.

Zain 3:02

I don't know. What are you going to do? It's time for you to make your speech. Go ahead.

Zain 3:07

given 150.4 percent. yeah

Zain 3:10

that's pretty much what he always says carter uh what are you gonna do i

Carter 3:13

i think i was too aggressive at the door we'll

Zain 3:19

we'll keep you for now carter we're gonna keep steven this is our standard fare of keeping carter for his leadership review let's move it on to our first actual segment our first segment delayed departure presented

Zain 3:33

presented to you by flare airlines oh it's not our sponsor thank you Corey guys let's talk about it let's talk about everything Jason

Zain 3:42

Jason Kenney Corey let's

Zain 3:44

let's start with you let's

Zain 3:45

let's start with yesterday we could start a lot before yesterday but let's start with yesterday

Zain 3:50

when you consumed that

Zain 3:54

for the first time we were all together on the same TV panel and

Zain 3:57

then when you consume that speech what was going through your your mind in

Zain 4:00

in terms of the decision that Jason Kenney made for

Corey 4:05

was so fifty one point four percent when when that was announced it was announced after a speech by the UCP president a

Corey 4:12

ton of talk about burying the lead oh my god there was like ten minutes going into it and we were just getting get to the fucking point was I get everybody in this province and we get then Orman providing the result of 51.4, and my first thought is this

Corey 4:28

this is the literal worst-case scenario for the UCP. A literal worst-case scenario, because I, you know, I took Jason Kenney somewhat at his word that if he got over 50 percent, he would stick around, and I mean, I don't want to jump too far ahead. Maybe he is, I think is one of the crazy things here, but if you stick around with 51.4 percent of the vote that means 48.6 percent of your party didn't vote for you and when you consider all of the advantages he had and the ability to set it as a mail-in ballot uh the ability to act before the rule changes occurred so he could have been selling memberships while everybody else was trying to sell bus tickets to red deer right knowing

Corey 5:06

knowing where this was going to end up uh

Corey 5:07

uh i i thought it was remarkably untenable and yet

Corey 5:12

yet he would be leader going into the next election, which meant Rachel Notley might be facing two conservative parties, a premier deeply unpopular attacked by his own party. Absolute worst-case scenario for the UCP. And even the way that the party president let it in, you know, fair process, we did all this right, blah blah blah, all of the things you're supposed to say as a party president, made

Corey 5:33

made me think he was gonna stay. And even the first three minutes of his speech made me think he was gonna stay.

Corey 5:39

And then And then, of course, we had the crazy turn partway through where he announces, no,

Corey 5:44

no, I've asked for a call of the leadership race. And I think most of us heard that means I'm out of here. But now there's some question about that today, too. So, I mean, it's been a roller coaster 24 hours, I think is fair to say.

Corey 5:58

And I don't know. I mean, it continues to be the greatest show on earth, Alberta Politics. Carter?

Carter 6:04

Well, I must say, I was very impressed that Corey was the only one who didn't audibly react when we were together on the cbc because i seem to recall two of us saying whoa and i'm really glad we didn't drop in our usual holy fuck right because that would have gone over poorly but um you know that moment when he because i was already like holy shitty staying right cory's talking about it being the worst number uh for him to stay we were talking about what happens at 55 well

Zain 6:31

well okay yeah that's the thing what what would happen at 55 and and the question question underneath there. What was the number then? He said 50 plus one. He was parading

Zain 6:39

parading that number around. He was also parading around as well with a swagger and a confidence and a big dick energy over the course of the last couple. He really was, right?

Carter 6:49

Let's do about the big dick. I

Carter 6:50

I mean, he's always been one.

Zain 6:54

Takes one to know one. Thank you, Carter. I appreciate it.

Zain 6:58

Carter, talk to me about what would have been the number? What would have 55 generated in your mind based on what you saw at 51.4 the same number you got this evening uh what would

Carter 7:09

have done at 55 well

Carter 7:10

well i think he should have stepped down at 55. i think you know the problem with joe clark and the opportunity that joe clark has given us is that 50

Carter 7:17

50 plus one was never seen as the real number so when joe clark in 1983 stepped down after or was it 82 83 i don't know i was like like 14. What do I remember? But when he stepped down at 66.9%, that set a number, that set a level that says, okay, you need at least two-thirds. And let's keep in mind that Stelmack and Redford both got 78% in their leadership reviews, and they were gone within a couple of years of

Carter 7:42

of those leadership reviews. So realistically,

Carter 7:44

realistically, you need to be in the 80s or 90s to be able to hold on to a party, especially a party as challenging as the UCP, which brings together multiple families of conservatism they are not the same conservatives under this united banner and

Carter 7:58

and they are fighting each other and they will continue to fight each other because they're not the same groups Cory would

Zain 8:04

would he have left at 55 would he have left

Carter 8:06

left at 60 because the reason

Zain 8:07

reason I asked the question Carter's wisdom is conventional right you need a very strong mandate I

Zain 8:14

I mean it's generally conventional I meant that as I didn't mean it as an insult but I do now after I got some laughter.

Zain 8:22

you know, really ensure that the audience here tonight gets more than the conventional wisdom of one Stephen Carter.

Zain 8:29

Explain to me, could

Zain 8:31

could there have been a path for him at 60? Realistically here.

Corey 8:33

here. Yeah, I think so. So the other element I didn't talk about was, of course, suggestions of bulk ballot purchasing. Yeah,

Corey 8:40

allegations. Don't know if those allegations will bear out, but if there were indeed thousands of ballots purchased on a couple of credit cards. Anything that has a margin of around that is going to be suspect. But even if it's, let's just say he wins by 3

Corey 8:54

3,000 votes instead of 4,000 votes,

Corey 8:57

I think he could still sort of say, I'm okay, because nobody assumes

Corey 9:01

assumes 100% voter turnout. In fact, when you've got a voter turnout of 50%, you can sort of assume vote efficiency 50%, boom, bang, he probably would have won the thing regardless. But that was sort of the first hurdle he had to cross. I think he could have stuck around at 55%. I think 58%, for sure.

Corey 9:18

60%, of course he was going to stick around. He was clearly planning to stick around.

Corey 9:23

51% really, though, throws you for a loop.

Zain 9:25

Talk to me about the planning to stick around, Carter. I want to jump to you on that. They had an event hall. Rumors are that there was going to be a speech by folks like Harper to talk about unity. We don't know if that's necessarily true. I personally don't. But they rented a hall. They were putting together a campaign-style event.

Corey 9:42

Yet... Yeah, so any three idiots can rent a hall. That's the first thing you should do.

Zain 9:49

especially in desperate times. It is absolutely true. Absolutely true. But can any three idiots have a fine array of chairs behind them so that if they get boring, the audience can just say, yeah, let me stare at those chairs and that beautiful piping that

Zain 10:03

that is behind them? Why is it not put up anywhere? Why is there a very large picture frame? I'm worried

Corey 10:07

worried we lost the plot

Zain 10:07

plot here, Sam. No, I'm worried

Zain 10:08

worried that we're playing to the audience in the room, Corey.

Zain 10:11

Carter, Carter, talk to me about that. they

Zain 10:13

they were prepared for victory he was prepared for victory every indication his attitude that whole rental the campaign style event the the unity speeches that were being planned what

Zain 10:24

what the fuck happened

Carter 10:25

well I'll tell you this is something that happens common and commonly in political parties and

Carter 10:30

and it is the lie to the leader right

Carter 10:32

right so when the leader asks you are you going to will you vote for me will you vote for me that everybody's inclinations to say yes and yeah of Of course, of course I'm going to vote for you. Because there's no price to pay

Carter 10:40

say it? No price to pay, but then you go and mark your ballot. No one will know, right?

Carter 10:45

right? No one will know. It's just me. It's just me. I'm going to vote my conscience this one time. And that's what happened to Ralph Klein.

Carter 10:51

Ralph Klein was walking around like he had it in the bag. The exact same thing with Kenny. Knew he had it. It was going to happen. But if you'd listen to the whisper in the room, the whisper in the room was, I didn't vote for him. Did you vote for him? I didn't vote for him. Did you vote for him? That's what the room was saying. And then when the results were announced at 55%, it was a surprise to exactly one person, and that was Ralph Klein.

Carter 11:15

And that's the same thing that happened to Kenny. And

Zain 11:17

And same thing one would argue to Mulcair in some ways. Because

Carter 11:21

these are popular people. They were once the leader. They were the most popular person in the political party. And then suddenly they're not. And that's what, you know, it's hard to say to the leader, to their face or to their team, I'm sorry, I think it's time for a change. So, Kenny's team legitimately thought they were in the 60 plus category, and they were shocked when the numbers came in. So, and big

Carter 11:49

we know people across the teams. We're not, you

Carter 11:52

you know, it turns out that most of us that are in the game actually like each other, except for Chris, who doesn't like anybody. Chris Henderson, how are you buddy? Good to see you. Fuck you, Chris. Fuck

Carter 12:01

Fuck you, Chris. Yeah. Anyways, we're all here. We're all one big happy family in the organizing.

Zain 12:10

I just felt like that wasn't a nice thing to do.

Zain 12:15

I don't know, it was just a reaction for basic decency, Carter. Thank you.

Zain 12:20

we are at the esteemed Maharaja of Equinol, Carter.

Carter 12:23

like to apologize to the Maharaja. Thank

Zain 12:30

talk to me about what

Zain 12:31

what Carter just said here.

Zain 12:35

the we're ready for this, it's

Zain 12:36

it's happening, we've won nature

Zain 12:38

nature of it, what do you think?

Corey 12:42

was definitely a sense that they had it, and you do have to ask yourself how much of that was delusion. So I

Corey 12:49

I think a lot of us were sitting there trying to ascertain what was going to happen and saying on one hand, there's all of these bad signs for Jason Kenney, right? right? There's the fact that we know there's a skew of voters into rural areas. We know 15,000 people were going to show up in Red Deer, which was not a very promising sign. And we know that a lot of the memberships that were sold were sold in relation to Brian Jean's nomination contest in Fort

Corey 13:13

Fort McMurray, which obviously Brian Jean won. And there were other signs, and many of these signs skewed

Corey 13:19

skewed negative. But there was this one massive countervailing piece out there, which was was

Corey 13:24

Jason Kenney walking around exuding supreme confidence, right, his team exuding supreme confidence. And there's two reasons that you don't immediately discount that. One is he has way better information than all of us. You have to assume his campaign is out there, is calling people, is polling people, is trying to understand how they feel about that. And yeah, people lie to the leader, but a smart leadership campaign is not going to say, hi,

Corey 13:48

hi, this is Jason Kenney calling, calling, I want to know if you're going to vote for me, it tries to remove it by one and get that dispassionate view of it. So you look at it and you say, well, maybe he knows something we don't. The other thing is, of course, he controlled the rules. We already talked about that. So when he's exuding that confidence, you can't just take it for granted, particularly after the ballot cutoff is over.

Corey 14:11

And I was talking about this on like a short pod we did yesterday. But if

Corey 14:15

if you- We did a pod yesterday?

Corey 14:19

No, no, Matt. keep going no it's okay so

Corey 14:23

so if you sort of no

Corey 14:26

no no pot don't worry about it if you look at it this and you say hey

Zain 14:37

what were you why were you why are we interrupting him like that are

Zain 14:40

are we look at him and Trump you're talking about ballot cutoff square Oh

Corey 14:43

Oh ballot cutoffs yeah very important topic you

Carter 14:46

you were You were boring me and I interrupted you.

Corey 14:49

So the thing about a ballot cutoff is in the lead up to it, exuding that confidence can create a bit of a winner effect, a bandwagon effect. You jump on and you say, I'm

Corey 14:57

I'm with the winner and you don't want to jump onto a campaign that looks like it's in a tailspin. Sure. Like it looks like it's going down. But the minute the ballot cutoff is over, the

Corey 15:05

the smart decision flips and hedging is the smart decision because you want to make people think any result you get is a good result. So, obviously, if people go in with an expectation of 51 and you get 51.4, they're going to say, oh, okay, right?

Corey 15:18

right? But if you start exuding 60%, that actually plays against you. That moves the other way.

Zain 15:23

Was there that type of confidence you saw from Kenny? Well, I did. And so

Zain 15:26

so the funny thing is I didn't see that confidence evaporate after the ballot cutoff, which

Corey 15:30

which made me think he truly believed it. Because if you didn't, then you don't want to have people like us up on a stage saying, why the hell was he exuding confidence? He must have been out of his mind. He must have had something wrong. somebody must have been lying to the leader. Carter,

Zain 15:44

Carter, from the perspective of, I wanna go back before I go forward, if that's okay, because this is reactions to yesterday. There's a lot of people today waxing poetic about what Jason Kenney's sins were. A

Zain 15:56

A lot of those people aren't necessarily from Alberta. From your perspective, knowing this place, having been a chief of staff to a premier, having run leadership campaigns successfully in this province,

Zain 16:06

what do you think, if you were to summarize Jason Kenney's sins,

Zain 16:09

what led him to this place, what

Zain 16:11

are they for you he

Carter 16:13

he merged the Progressive Conservative Party with the Wild Rose Party so

Zain 16:16

so he's legacy that he's going to parade around with and say I did this was his sin absolutely

Carter 16:22

absolutely because they are not the same family they come from different branches

Carter 16:27

branches of the tree and because

Zain 16:32

because So thank you so much for that, like I said.

Carter 16:36

And because of that, they fight constantly. The group that is the progressive side looks at what the regressive side of the Conservative Party wants and says, we can't possibly do that. And the far right side says, you guys are giving away everything. So when Jason Kenney doesn't make substantive cuts to the spending, he's already failing. When Jason Kenney doesn't make substantive changes changes to the curriculum, fast enough, he's already failing. When he doesn't privatize healthcare fast enough, he's already failing because within his own house, within the house that he built, he has two warring factions. And we kept those warring factions separate because the easier way to win in

Carter 17:17

in Alberta was to take the progressive side of the Conservatives to the middle than it was to go to the right and join up with the Looney Tunes.

Carter 17:26

Because the Looney Tunes is butt crazy. and it is a long way from pragmatism to their social conservatism a very long way what

Zain 17:34

what was his sin or what was this what are his sins that led him to this place that we saw last night well

Corey 17:39

well so Stevens right the original sin so to speak of the UCP is that it is this this marriage of you know it was based on venom more than it was ideology the thing is when you're a political party

Corey 17:52

it's very easy especially in opposition to define yourself by what you're against, right? And, you know, I used to work for the Alberta Liberal Party, and I used to say it

Corey 18:00

it was a loose coalition of people who hated each other marginally less than they hated the Conservatives, right?

Corey 18:06

think that the problem is that is sort of what the UCP was in opposition too, right? They didn't like each other. The PCs didn't like the Wild Rosers. The Wild Rosers didn't like the PCs.

Corey 18:16

Lots of animosity. Lest we forget, the 2019 election included a

Corey 18:20

a floor crossing by most of the caucus that

Corey 18:22

that the membership didn't follow,

Corey 18:24

right? They did not follow, and

Corey 18:26

and to bring that together was somewhat remarkable, but they did that because there was an NDP government, and they were fighting against this NDP government.

Corey 18:32

But the minute they have government, the calculation changes, then it becomes, what are we doing with this power? You know, we were standing in opposition to the NDP, sure, but what are our priorities and what are we going to do? And Jason Kenney, I think, was

Corey 18:45

was pretty savvy in that he wrote a very long and detailed platform. So if

Corey 18:49

if as long as you're dealing with the anticipated you can say hey, we

Corey 18:53

we agreed. We said we do the education curriculum Hey, we said we do the war room. We've got this whole list of things you all ran on this platform We agreed but

Corey 19:01

but government doesn't work like that government

Corey 19:03

government does not work like that Most of what you're doing is reacting and the minute you've got a situation like kovat or the minute your plan for the economy

Corey 19:11

Doesn't work right like you're not creating jobs in the first year and a half Well, then then

Corey 19:16

then you're in a different situation entirely entirely. And I think what the problem was for him was as he was trying to manage that, he

Corey 19:23

he managed it in a way that was somewhat imperious because he took the, hey,

Corey 19:27

hey, look at the, everybody voted for me and we had this very robust platform. And he made a mental leap in his head that that meant he had carte blanche to do whatever he wanted. And it was that attitude and approach he took that I think really

Corey 19:40

really antagonized his party.

Zain 19:41

Carter, another thing that's been thrown around is that he was a populist and that didn't work.

Zain 19:45

Was he a populist Was he an ideologue? What was he? No,

Carter 19:47

No, he was an ideologue.

Carter 19:48

Had he been a populist, he would have actually done some of the things on COVID that the population was asking him to do. These weren't tough decisions. We had like 80th percentile people who wanted better vaccination rates before we opened. We had 80th percentile on masking. We had 80th percentile on a bunch of different things. Populism says, like Doug Ford, move

Carter 20:07

move to the popular position. Doug Ford is still in office today and likely will be still in office on June the 3rd because Doug Ford has has moved to where his people are. Jason Kenney did not move to where his people are. He moved to the ideology because he tried to win over the right wing of his party rather than the centrists that vote. Because ultimately, the center is where the voters are.

Carter 20:33

The voters don't care enough to be on the ideologue side. You know,

Zain 20:37

when I was working on that NDP campaign in 2019, one of the things that we tried to do on a daily basis was tell people how

Zain 20:45

how much of a right-wing lunatic Jason Kenney was, right? Like his social conservative past, that this guy, his fiscal track record is bordering austerity. This is a guy who's a hard right candidate.

Zain 21:00

Three years later, and one of the skills, I will say, during that campaign,

Zain 21:04

and subsequently thereafter, was

Zain 21:06

was walking into a room or in front of a microphone and moderating himself. Maybe not in what he believed and how he appeared, how he presented. He was charming. He was able to kind of seem pretty reasonable.

Zain 21:18

Three years later, that seems to be his Achilles heel, that he moderated himself in some ways, that he was able to kind of look more, behave

Zain 21:25

behave more, appear more reasonable.

Zain 21:29

And it seems like that's not what conservatism wants. Is that fair, Corey?

Corey 21:33

I don't know if that's entirely how I would read the situation. I think that Jason Kenney believes things strongly. I believe he is probably the textbook definition of an ideologue he's also a very savvy organizer and he could see the populist wave was something that could generate a lot of enthusiasm for a political party I mean I don't know how many of you have personally met Jason Kenney but he is not the guy who says get her down and drives around in a pickup truck except

Corey 21:58

but this is my point this this was this was a character put on by somebody who saw the political upside of it sure here

Corey 22:06

here you know he's much more likely to get into discussion with you about Greek philosophy than then how you pump gasoline for example yeah

Corey 22:15

just as a total random and so

Corey 22:19

yeah I you know he he just he was having conversations on how to pump gasoline all of

Corey 22:25

of us so were

Corey 22:29

were you again I don't know I'm gonna continue to lose my train of thought here I think but look Jason Kenney when he is when he is trying to to put on that cloak and when he's trying to be that person that's

Corey 22:41

that's only gonna work for so long and when you have a caucus in particular who actually thought perhaps he was a populist you know

Corey 22:47

know that's gonna cause you an awful lot of challenges Carter

Zain 22:50

Carter for the health of the party should the UCP keep him well

Zain 22:54

well they did they did but sure that for the health of the party should they keep him for the health of the you and UCP there's

Zain 23:01

there is a strong rationale

Zain 23:06

or a strong suggestion that this leadership race is going to be a referendum on Jason Kenney that it's going to be apologizing for some of his sins perhaps his tone his leadership style while he's still in the Premier's chair an interim leader is that good for the party Carter well

Carter 23:23

well it's not necessarily good for the party but it is much better for Brian Jean and Danielle Smith I

Carter 23:28

I think that they don't understand like the people who are in the caucus who were trying to get Jason Kenney out of the leadership and out of the Premier's chair and put an interim Should they want

Zain 23:37

want him to stay for the

Carter 23:37

the interim? They should have wanted him to stay because the last thing you need is a giant pissed off organizer like Jason Kenney who is probably, to Corey's point, one of the strongest organizers we've ever seen. This

Carter 23:51

This is a guy who could whip up votes for anything at any time except his leadership reveal.

Carter 24:00

RCMP investigation pending. It only, well, we don't know, but it only takes 50%, it only takes 50% to win, and he would, I'm sure, if he wasn't in the independent leader spot of being the premier, where he's not allowed to take part in the actual leadership race, he would fuck over Brian Jean and Daniel Smith so badly that they would never win election ever, ever again, because that's the organizer, and that's the vindictiveness that Jason Kenney brings. Jason Kenney has a list of people he wishes to fuck over how do I know this I may be on that list and

Carter 24:41

he takes time and he just kind of puts your name down it's a beautiful little you know cursive it's nice and then he fucks you and

Carter 24:52

so they should be just thrilled that he wanted to stay on his premiere to keep them keep him out of the race and that might be the

Carter 24:59

the thing that the UCP needs an honest fair race with Jason Kenney not influencing or putting his thumb on the scale that might be the best thing for the you and you

Zain 25:09

they do that by him staying as interim leader and premier so Zane he's

Zain 25:14

he's not interim leader he's

Corey 25:17

but that's an important distinction because the interim leader is not allowed to run again there's

Corey 25:22

there's there's not actually that requirement Let's talk about this, yeah. For a leader.

Carter 25:26

Yeah, now you're splitting. You're going and splitting hairs. He's

Carter 25:29

going to run in the leader's office. No, no, but the fundamental question is, to your point, can he run again?

Corey 25:32

So I don't think he will. I think he doesn't mind people suggesting that he should. I'm not ruling it out entirely, but I will tell you this.

Corey 25:42

If he wanted to, it would be a very interesting race, because lest we forget, he did get

Corey 25:48

get 51.4%. and you can point to all sorts of fuckery to get there, but he has the same ability to do that going forward, and perhaps that

Corey 25:57

that race becomes a chance for a bit of a redemption arc here. I don't know. I mean, I think it's crazy. Like, the very fact that people like Don Brady are writing about this right now, I think, is this real? This cannot be real. But if, you know, this is Alberta and stranger things have happened. Yeah,

Carter 26:11

Yeah, I mean, it happened with Joe Clark versus Brian Mulroney.

Carter 26:15

Yeah, that is the model, right? Joe didn't get enough. He said, I'm not going to, you know, and he competed in that leadership immediately after losing his

Carter 26:22

his leadership review. He lost to Brian Mulroney. But it is possible to compete. Having said that, that's

Carter 26:28

that's not what Jason Kenney wants to do.

Carter 26:30

Jason Kenney wants to meet the Pope.

Zain 26:33

I'm going to leave that segment there and move it on to our next segment. Our next segment, wisdom from the Maharaja.

Zain 26:39

Guys, in the ancient times, the Maharaja provided the most beneficial, wise words. And today you are going to be said, Maharaja. You guys- There is literally a leak above your head right now. I am avoiding it, right?

Carter 26:53

Are we seriously having this happen? This is the

Zain 26:54

the quirks of the Maharaja Banquet Hall.

Zain 26:57

And when I say quirks, I mean characters. These are the features. The features and the character.

Zain 27:04

now everyone's looking at for the leak, yes.

Zain 27:09

should say, I should say, yes, you're gonna find more than one if you look for it.

Zain 27:17

great great venue folks um carter

Zain 27:21

want to talk about strategy we

Carter 27:23

we have to talk thank you we should do that it's

Carter 27:25

it's a strategic podcast yeah we

Zain 27:27

we should do that okay i think we've summarized some of our thoughts let's talk about cory's gotten started on someone give you a chance strategy

Zain 27:34

strategy for jason kenney you are helping jason kenney right now first

Zain 27:38

first question you're probably asking are what are your goals sir let's say his goals are i

Zain 27:41

i don't want to run again i'm done with this shit but I

Zain 27:45

I want to be the guy that's known for the legacy of what I started I

Zain 27:48

started this thing I wanted to keep going what's

Zain 27:51

what's your advice to Jason Kenney

Carter 27:53

two pieces of advice one personal and one for the party the

Carter 27:56

the personal one is go and meet everybody go

Carter 27:59

go in the next five months go and meet every executive in Alberta and go to every corporation and tell them about how your government wanted to help them and did help them and make sure that there's board board positions for you six months after you leave because

Carter 28:12

because you got to make a living and

Carter 28:14

and if you're going to put up with the pain of being the premier you should make a very good living afterwards because it's painful Jason Kenney has gone through hell in the last two years and I don't care what your ideology is I don't care if you like him or loathe him his last two years have been brutal so

Carter 28:30

so now he's going to leave this is not a great thing to have happened some of us have been fired before it's

Carter 28:37

it's not fun you

Carter 28:39

you don't feel good about yourself and some people frankly are mean and

Zain 28:45

got great coping skills not

Carter 28:46

not everyone has great coping skills and start you know goes in back to the podcast yeah

Zain 28:50

yeah no it brings 400 people in for a therapy session exactly

Carter 28:54

being here making me feel better but

Carter 28:56

but Jason getting needs to get gigs what they'll go do that and the second thing is make sure that the the party has an open process that is transparent and very, very strong. You want to see that membership base grow from 60,000 people to 160,000 people. You need there to be a strong UCP so that at the end of it when the next leader is elected it actually continues and you don't wind up in that situation that Stephen Harper found himself in where Stephen Harper could create the Conservative Party of Canada but then then the only person who can get elected under the Conservative Party of Canada is Stephen Harper. That's not the job, that's not the gig. Are

Zain 29:36

Are you saying that then you

Zain 29:39

or you eventually leave, but you're effectively chief organizer for this thing? You are using that organizing prowess that both of you have talked about, and

Zain 29:46

and you're not walking away bitterly? You're saying, to keep this thing united, I'm going to do that? Chief cheerleader.

Carter 29:52

Chief cheerleader. It's a different thing, because if you're organizing the events, it'll look like you took sides. sides.

Carter 29:58

So you're cheerleading from the sidelines, you're pushing everybody to make sure that they're doing better. If there are people who aren't doing well, you're pushing them forward. You're just trying to find every way that you can to have a robust leadership. Because if you were to have, let's say that instead of a robust leadership with six people, you had Brian, Gene, and Danielle Smith.

Carter 30:19

It's not a good step forward.

Zain 30:21

Corey, Jason Kenney listens to Carter's advice and says that's a bunch of bullshit. bullshit. I

Zain 30:27

I need to let you know, Corey, you know, I, as Jason Kenney, have Steven Carter on my list of people that I want to fuck over one day. I'm going to show it to you. It's a beautiful cursive.

Zain 30:36

I just talked to Steven. He gave me a load of bullshit. He says that I should go find gigs and I should be a cheerleader. Fuck that.

Zain 30:43

I can't do that. I need to get back in the game. I've got a lot of life left.

Zain 30:49

I want to run again.

Zain 30:51

Corey, Corey, they're going to miss me in 30 days.

Zain 30:55

What are you doing? What are you saying? I

Corey 30:56

I would say, they can't miss you if you don't leave. So step one

Corey 31:00

actually be vacating the seat,

Zain 31:02

seat, right? Would you say that now, if I phrase it less cutely, would you say that for him if he was saying, Corey, I want to run, what's my strategy?

Corey 31:09

If he wants to run, he's doing it wrong. He should not be staying in the seat if he wants to run. Because one of the knocks against Jason Kenney is that he is the fuckery charge, right? Like all of the rules that he's playing with And the idea that he's like, oh, I know interim leader can't run, but nothing about leader. You know, the only person who noticed

Zain 31:27

noticed that was Corey Hogan.

Corey 31:29

Hogan. But, you know, that's like that's not going to do him any favors and that's going to reinforce an awful lot of negatives about

Corey 31:35

about him. So if that was the path he wanted to take, what he should have said is, you know what?

Corey 31:40

I don't think this is settled. I think there's a fundamental challenge between the conventions of our party and the rules as they are written. and we've got to reconcile that right now because it is one of those weird things, right? You can win leader with 51% of the vote and you can lose leader with 30%, you know, 80% of the vote is not enough to keep the leadership sometimes, right? That's a challenge. I mean, all

Corey 32:03

all warfare is based on asymmetry and the minute people sort of realize that and say, hey, if I set these norms aside and I could just go after the leader, I don't need half the party to hate him, I just need 30% of the party to hate him and then he's not leader anymore, more.

Corey 32:17

Well, that's a real opportunity for people. So he could make a play of that, but that still requires him to vacate the chair.

Corey 32:23

If he wants to do himself favors, I think along the lines of what Stephen was charged with, he is afforded a unique opportunity to write his own obituary. He gets to do what he wants over the next couple of months, as long as it's things that he was elected to do. And so you can imagine that very robust platform of his. He can just say, hey, look, we're just continuing that until the next person's in the chair. We've started so much of this activity I'll tell you they've

Corey 32:47

they've started a lot of things they have not concluded a

Corey 32:50

lot of things and he can and he can try to make his party at the very least think better of him and if he wants to do a true return he's

Corey 32:59

he's got to give some cool off time come back in five years ten years fifteen years you're a young enough guy I mean look at John Sharae right now right

Corey 33:06

right he's killing it that's what I see I

Corey 33:09

heard he's built to win John

Corey 33:13

John Sharae was when I was young the youngest cabinet minister ever and now he's I think the oldest human who's ever lived so there's

Corey 33:23

there's still time I guess my point people people even people are living longer if he wants to come back he's got to disappear for a bit look

Carter 33:32

look at Joe Biden Carter

Zain 33:39

is Corey right if he wants to run again what is he supposed to be doing right now what should he be doing like in these critical next couple of days couple of weeks I'm talking about well

Carter 33:47

well when did when are you asking that like does he want to run again in this leadership race no no this race it's too late he should have left yeah

Carter 33:54

he should have left he should have gone and then the day before the leadership deadline he comes back in to save it script

Zain 34:00

script that for me so yesterday you should have said I'm

Zain 34:03

fuck it I'm done I have

Carter 34:05

to go I did not achieve the level that I expect of myself nor the level that you expect of me and

Carter 34:10

and so I'm stepping down today oh

Carter 34:14

no No, I have to go. And then he goes, and we don't see the man for three weeks.

Carter 34:24

during that time, all

Carter 34:26

all we see is

Carter 34:28

Danielle Smith and Brian Jean. And

Carter 34:31

And I'll tell you something,

Carter 34:32

Jason Kenney looks fucking good now, doesn't he?

Zain 34:41

That's not bad at all. I like that, Carter.

Carter 34:43

Let's talk about... What

Zain 34:44

What do you call

Carter 34:44

call that? Polite applause? Tepid?

Zain 34:48

Edmonton government town. Tepid is the best we're going to get.

Carter 34:54

I'm not going to take a

Zain 34:55

a shit on Edmonton. Thank you.

Zain 34:58

I didn't. I didn't. I like that there's one guy here at the buffet for one. Hello, sir. There'll be food at intermission. It's like every Indian wedding I've been to. Just one person in the middle of the dance just being like, nope, making

Zain 35:09

making a beeline for what I want to do. My thing.

Zain 35:13

Thank you for coming.

Zain 35:17

don't mean to call you out but

Zain 35:19

but i but i really did uh

Zain 35:23

gene and smith have been mentioned yes

Zain 35:26

brian gene daniel smith yeah we know them cory

Zain 35:31

genuinely what should their strategy be right now daniel smith said today she's

Zain 35:36

uh officially again no i

Corey 35:37

i mean way too soon the body's not even cold like what are you doing danielle like

Corey 35:43

like at at least wait until somebody has a thought about what they want in a leader before saying, I'm the answer.

Corey 35:49

You've got to let the news cycle go on. She stomped on her own event because she announced in the morning she's running, and in the afternoon, people were still talking about Jason Kenney and whether he would be the premier for the next bit. That

Corey 36:01

That was a tactical mistake, and that was a strategic mistake. It's like hockey, right? There's a benefit to changing your line last because you're able to see what the others are doing and respond. You don't want to be the last one into the race that

Carter 36:15

that was so good you

Zain 36:18

don't be the last one you don't

Zain 36:19

don't want to be the

Corey 36:20

last one into the race but there's not a huge advantage to barreling out the door like she did uh because i i think the risk now is she gets forgotten carter

Zain 36:29

carter what what if you were advising her or brian jean and by the way do you think they're in the same camp do they have the same strategy for for the two of them you know they have a lot in common but what would you be telling them right now if if they wanted to to go for this thing what would their play be

Carter 36:45

well yeah i mean they are in the same camp in that they're both doing the wrong thing

Carter 36:51

um because they they're both so anxious to get rid of jason kenney both of them can be seen as judas right they're the ones or you know they're brutus to caesar they're judas to jesus um they're corey to me um

Zain 37:04

that's a lot of uh that's

Zain 37:06

lot of uh greek philosophy talk Have

Carter 37:08

Have you been spending some time with Jason

Zain 37:09

Jason Kenney, or is that what's

Carter 37:10

what's going to go bad? But what happens is that they're now seen as the person who put the knife in Jason Kenney's back. And in Alberta, especially, the person who puts the knife in the back is generally not given the reins later, right? They're not given the responsibility of being in charge. Ed Stelmack won when it was supposed to be Jim Dinning, because

Carter 37:30

because Jim Dinning was seen to put the knife in Klein. line.

Carter 37:34

And then when, you know, the knife went into Allison Redford, it was Ted Morton, you

Carter 37:39

you know, and so they had to bring in someone else to win over this thing. So each, well, Ted Morton also put the knife in Ed Stelmack. Ted

Carter 37:45

Ted Morton's a bad person.

Carter 37:50

person who does the knifing generally doesn't win, and they have both, by going so anxiously, by putting themselves out there so quickly, they have both put themselves in the position of Judas, the one that could be the people who could be, if this goes poorly, blamed for tearing the party apart. Yeah,

Corey 38:09

Yeah, and so that's worth unpacking a little bit. And the reason why that rarely occurs is because you've immediately started the leadership race with half the party against you, right? So generally speaking, the leader that does come forward is acceptable to multiple sides in an inter-party conflict, at least the two, the pro-leader and the anti-leader, right? So it's somebody who supported the leader, but not too much. It's somebody

Zain 38:31

somebody who is opposed

Corey 38:31

opposed to the leader, but not openly and aggressively. And when you are one of the extreme examples on either side. So it's not just about being somebody who's so aggressively against. If you are Jason Kenney's lapdog, that

Carter 38:43

that is also not

Corey 38:44

not a very good place to be right now. And so the party tends to look for compromise in these situations, and ranked ballots really make that likely as well.

Zain 38:54

Let's talk about the cabinet minister in the Kenney government right now. I'm going to use a generic sort of composite profile rather than a specific person. Well, they all are.

Zain 39:04

So you're one of them.

Zain 39:05

You've sat on your hands. You've shut your mouth. You've been supportive. You've nodded. You've said, yes, Premier, we're with you, but you've had ambitions the entire time.

Zain 39:13

What's your game plan, Carter?

Zain 39:15

What are you starting with? Are you announcing?

Zain 39:18

Is it even fair to declare intention right now? Like, how do you do this, right? Like from a mechanical, strategic perspective,

Zain 39:25

how do you kind of say, hey, I'm now interested when the guy's still

Carter 39:31

Well, you make sure that your name leaks in the first round because in the last two paragraphs of the article about Jason Kenney, there's always speculation.

Carter 39:39

Speculation is that these cabinet ministers or these people will run, and

Carter 39:42

and that's fine for now. Just

Carter 39:44

Just put yourself into the speculation. Make sure that your name is being actively mentioned, and then if the press come to you and say, no, no, it's too soon,

Carter 39:53

It's far too soon.

Corey 39:54

soon. I couldn't possibly... My heart's just not in it right now.

Carter 39:57

Right. At this particular moment, I think we all need to take a step back and look at what brought us to this place, and then we can start moving forward once

Carter 40:05

once we understand where we actually are. So I'm going to

Corey 40:07

to do a listening tour.

Carter 40:08

tour. I'm going to do a listening tour.

Carter 40:11

I've actually joined the Alberta party.

Corey 40:16

No, you know, especially if you think about it in a very simple, you want the people who who were for Kenny and against Kenny, or at least not be, you

Corey 40:24

know, vetoed by either side. And if you were a cabinet minister, your name shows up in the first round. I agree. You need buzz about you. You need speculation about you. You're talking to the still premier, and he's like, oh, I saw your name was there. And you're like, I know, premier, but after what happened to you, I'm just, I don't know. And he'll say, oh, no, I think you got to, you know? Like, you're trying to almost get that thing and say, well, look, if I was going to do it, it's

Corey 40:47

it's only in part because I love your legacy so much. Meanwhile, on

Corey 40:52

on the other side, it's like, oh, your name is out there, oh, you should do it. Like, oh, there's a lot of things I would change if I were Premier, I bet your ass, right? But you're able to have conversations on both sides, and there's, like, this very delicate calibration that has to happen with the grandees of the party in that sense, where you're not actively antagonizing either side. So it's a delicate balance for a cabinet minister. I'm

Zain 41:14

I'm going to ask a pretty elementary question, but if you've been waiting for so long... Yeah, yeah, okay, you're stupid, yeah. First time, how? But

Zain 41:20

But if you've been waiting for so long, you now have, like he's not gonna more than likely run against you.

Zain 41:27

He's sitting there, he said he's gonna leave, why can't you just say fuck it, I'm running, I'm in. Because it's not- I'm Doug Schweitzer, I'm Travis Taves, I'm whoever, I'm doing it. Because

Carter 41:35

Because it's not him who's choosing you.

Carter 41:38

Because the people haven't turned on to this particular stage of the race yet. You must always tailor your message for what the people wanna hear, not what you wanna say. to say. This is the message that I'd like the NDP to hear, frankly, in this town. You don't tailor your message for what you want to say. You tailor your message for what your audience that you want wants to hear. And that is a fundamental difference between I'm ready to go now, says Danielle, and I fucking stabbed him in the back, says Brian. Right?

Carter 42:05

Those aren't, that's not what we want to hear right now. What we want to hear at this point is what the fuck happened? Give us till Tuesday. Give us till Wednesday of next week so we We can digest this over the long weekend because there's only 800 of us that actually care and half of them are in this room.

Corey 42:22

Well, it's a great point. The other big problem with Danielle Smith's is it was a news drop before a long weekend. Who does that? That's a crazy thing to do. And Brian Jean is walking around like he's a big game hunter who just brought down something.

Corey 42:35

And neither is particularly helpful, right? Right? You've got to think about, there's,

Corey 42:40

there's, overeagerness is never particularly appealing in politicians. Like, I just, I'm going to use Doug Schweitzer as a fake one here.

Corey 42:48

Like, imagine it's like all of a sudden he's there and it's just, you know, he pulls up a PowerPoint and it's got the logo for Doug Schweitzer for leader and it's, Carter

Corey 42:57

Carter is, it's not a visual medium, you know? There are people, there are people here.

Zain 43:03

Why are you playing to the people on for the recording. They paid $30. First of all, first of all. These people are

Carter 43:09

are idiots. We got

Corey 43:14

So if you have everything ready to go, it looks like you were waiting for this moment. And that's going to put a bad... And look, people are human, right? Like if the minute Stephen Carter was fired, I was made chief of staff to Jody Gondek, I think...

Zain 43:38

Sorry, some of your change is leaking from your pocket.

Corey 43:45

look like gold cougarots. Where'd you get that kind of money?

Carter 43:48

I came into some money recently.

Zain 43:56

some point being associated with you, Carter, it's going to be tough.

Zain 44:00

And everyone will know when. Everyone will be like, that makes sense, they broke up.

Carter 44:04

You brought in fucking Grenier yesterday.

Zain 44:08

Fricks. If you were brought in as chief of staff to Gondek,

Zain 44:12

why are you losing a train of thought every single time? If I was brought

Corey 44:15

brought in as chief of staff to Gondek, Stephen Carter... You'd be fired

Carter 44:19

fired now, too, 100 days later.

Corey 44:22

Stephen Carter would have some hurt feelings. And even if he

Corey 44:25

he would normally wish me well and would have wished me well if I got that job 100 days later, I doubt he would wish me well. because obviously it would look like something was in the works for a while I knew something

Corey 44:35

something about this all of those things that's

Carter 44:36

that's right Amy no

Carter 44:38

no I'm not gonna say that Carter

Zain 44:42

Carter ah Jesus Christ Carter yeah drink

Zain 44:51

Carter I have to ask you this though talk

Zain 44:53

talk to me about the

Zain 44:54

the candidate from the outside was

Zain 44:56

was not in cabinet not

Zain 44:57

not not having to play the politics of what does Jason Kenney feel, what's going, what are they doing right now, right? Because, like, to be honest, and tell me if you agree with this assessment,

Zain 45:06

pretty attractive job opening.

Zain 45:08

Fiscal conditions are getting better, you back into yourself, into premier, you don't have to run in a general election, you win this leadership, you're premier.

Zain 45:16

if you're on the outside, if you're a former, you know, politician, if you're someone from the community,

Zain 45:22

conservative organizer, you're looking at this job opening, what

Zain 45:26

what are you doing right now?

Carter 45:27

there's a lot of people here who are here with their significant others and they know how to date people you're not familiar but

Carter 45:34

but what happens is when you're dating people sometimes

Carter 45:36

sometimes people play hard to get and

Carter 45:39

that is an unbelievably good position to be so if you're Mel at Michelle Rempel Garner you should absolutely be playing hard to get I'm not sure this is the move for me I'm not sure this is the time for me I've got a leadership at the county at the program you know, the Conservative Party of Canada that I'm invested in. I am the vice co-chair for Patrick Brown and door number eight. You know, like, I am set. That is the thing that I'm focused on. And then four days from the end, oh my god, it's, you know, there's, it's just, we don't have the field that we need. We don't have the field that we need, and I have to. I have to put the province before my own personal ambitions.

Carter 46:22

And so I am going to throw my hat into this ring

Carter 46:26

because no one else is worthy of this job except me.

Carter 46:30

Corey, is that the

Zain 46:30

the strategy or is that played out? Is that so scripted and templated that we know all those beats, at least the political class knows exactly what, oh, no, no, I know, I can't do it now. All that sort of heavy breathing, and then all the steps Carter mentioned there on it. Do

Carter 46:46

Do we have any media here tonight?

Carter 46:48

Who would admit that? They'd fucking fall for it.

Carter 46:51

no, no, no, no. They'd fall for it every time.

Corey 46:52

It's not about falling for it, because, Zane, you were a little younger than us. You don't remember the 90s. You don't remember television when it was the same fucking show every week. They just, you know, it was all tightly wrapped at the end. We like the beats. People enjoy the beats. They enjoy seeing the thing that they're expecting to see. We know there'll be the draft campaign. We'll know there'll be the, no, no, no, I couldn't possibly, I couldn't possibly, I couldn't possibly. But why? Why? Why the games? The story that's as old as time, and we like the story as old as time. It's what we expect a leader to be, and it's how we expect a leader to act. And while people can break the mold, and there's stories that are sometimes different and compelling,

Corey 47:29

we keep turning back to that same, you know, how many people on Netflix, be honest, have watched Friends in the last two years?

Corey 47:37

Well, like one. Okay, that was a bad one for me. Yeah,

Corey 47:41

Awkward. All right. You should have said The Office. The Office. This is an office garage? Yeah.

Zain 47:46

Yeah. Okay. So there you go.

Carter 47:47

How many have watched The West Wing?

Zain 47:51

you back. No, we're not pandering now. Corey's trying to make a point. Okay.

Carter 47:54

I was helping him.

Corey 47:56

Nobody minds the theater is my point. People will write their think pieces about it and they'll say, oh, this is played and we knew this was going to happen.

Corey 48:05

But people like that too. It's all part of the show. Carter,

Zain 48:08

Carter, you started on this point, so I'll let you finish earlier. What does the NDP need to do here? In this interim time, right, where they're getting their ducks in a row on the UCP side of things, they're talking about Kenny

Zain 48:18

Kenny and his legacy, they're talking about these rumors, there's a lot of people saying, no, no, no, I can't do it, but it's an attractive job.

Zain 48:25

What is the NDP's game plan here?

Carter 48:29

Okay? They released two releases on yesterday. Two

Carter 48:34

Two releases yesterday they put out. How much coverage do you think they're going to get on their two releases yesterday? Absolutely zero.

Carter 48:41

One of them was on hospitals, about something about hospitals. The other one was about an Auditor General's report. What the fuck are you doing?

Carter 48:49

Like, understand the ebbs and flows of the media. Understand what it is you're supposed to be communicating. Start putting, and this is crazy talk, start putting the audience into your communications. Everything that they're communicating about right now is their political victories. Look, we fucking kicked ass today on Jason Kenney. Who cares? What's your story? what are you telling us about yourselves and more important than telling us your story how do I fit into your story why do I matter as the audience that's supposed to be listening to your story now you people in Edmonton may think well we all understand that we all are we're a part of that yeah 60% of you already voting NDP doesn't matter it's

Carter 49:30

it's all about Calgary and they're like what the fuck are the NDP right

Carter 49:35

right you have to start figuring this out and this is the the time to do it don't think you're going to score political points against the UCP now this is not about defining them this is about defining yourselves and this is this is the message that I've been we've been talking about on the pod for how many weeks and months and this is this is it this is your last chance you've got four months five months while this leadership happens and then you're on election footing so define it define who you are to the the people who matter, the voters.

Zain 50:07

Corey, what can you do while the other side is sucking up all the oxygen again,

Zain 50:12

this time with their leadership race, this

Zain 50:15

this time with their internal infighting of a different kind?

Zain 50:18

What can you do and should you do? Carter's strategy is well taken, perhaps. But

Zain 50:22

But what is it strategically and perhaps even tactically that they should be doing to execute on what Carter's talking about? As

Corey 50:28

As a political party, you always have available to you doing the work behind the curtain, right? You can go meet with organizers. I think this would be a very interesting time to meet with red Tories in Calgary and say, you know where this is going to go in your party. You can jump on one of these campaigns or you can jump on right now and help us change this province for the better. And that organizer work, that can occur. And broadening the tent and involving more people and having meetings with bigger and bigger teams and empowering those teams to tailor locally the solutions they need, just as we always say we want people to be able to do with health care and with education and all of those things. true of politics as well, right? You've got to be able to locally tailor your message and that requires local people with kind of a horse feel for the place, right? You can't run a campaign for Calgary from Edmonton, full stop. Just as we could not run a campaign for Edmonton from Calgary, full stop. Different cultural touchstones, just different things that go on. In terms of messaging, I don't have a, I don't have a severe reaction to what's, you know, what the NDP or, I don't think it was wise to release two news releases yesterday. That, sure, that was weird. but I don't have such a severe reaction to the notion of trying to define your opponent at this time and remind everybody that it wasn't just one person it wasn't just Jason Kenney that entire caucus signed on to this platform and this platform has these components you've got to keep that in mind but

Corey 51:48

but I do agree that the storytelling work is more important because it is possible to win an election just by not being the other guy if the other guy is not popular it It is absolutely true, but

Corey 52:01

you are surrendering an awful lot of agency in that situation. You are basically hoping the other individuals cannot get their act together and they will be perceived negatively. But

Corey 52:12

But if they catch a wave, if they change their leader, and you don't have a story, if

Corey 52:17

if your plan A, B, and C was entirely people hate the other guy and the other guy is gone, you've

Corey 52:23

you've got a big problem. So what I think the NDP needs to focus up on is the story of the next Alberta like what it's you know okay sure it seems that everybody across Alberta including the UCP has agreed that Jason Kenney's not the guy but

Corey 52:38

what makes you the woman right Rachel not only what makes you the person to lead this province into the next four years Carter's

Carter 52:44

around this out here

Carter 52:45

well I just I want to just finish with you know the this

Carter 52:50

the NDP didn't win in 2015 Jim Prentice lost right and you and it's It's okay, I can say that because in 2012 Alison Redford didn't win, Danielle Smith lost, right?

Carter 53:01

right? She didn't learn that lesson and didn't pass that lesson on to Prentice. Is

Zain 53:05

Is that the rule that you can say it if it happened to you?

Carter 53:09

Yeah, that's entirely the rule. So they

Carter 53:12

they have to understand that and have to move to, okay, how do we win an election instead of just simply putting ourselves in the positions of being the lucky recipients of bad play played by the other team because

Carter 53:24

because that's just not gonna hold up and it

Carter 53:27

starts with a lot more discipline to the campaign we're

Zain 53:32

we're gonna leave that segment there moving on to our next segment our next segment kill Mary fucked guys

Zain 53:38

guys I am gonna give you a list of people in Alberta politics and you're gonna tell me are they killing it okay your choices are are they killing it they

Zain 53:47

they should just go on their merry way or

Zain 53:49

or they're totally fucked and

Zain 53:51

and the best way to get started Stephen Carter is to get started let's do it Jason

Zain 53:58

he killing it she

Zain 53:59

she just go on his merry way or is he is he totally fucked I

Carter 54:04

want to say he's totally fucked because

Carter 54:06

because you know it's the Nixons and who likes them but I think that it's more or

Carter 54:13

or he's gonna have to go on his merry way I think he's just too close to Kenny to be able to be a factor in this next in the leadership and he He will always be seen as Kennedy's lieutenant. And as long as he's seen as the lieutenant, then it's just not going to work for him.

Corey 54:28

Coy? It kind of feels like he said fucked, but he used the merry way.

Carter 54:32

Merry going his merry way. But

Corey 54:33

But that means... Carter not following the rules? Really?

Corey 54:36

I think that he is fucked, because he is associated with the leader. His nomination contest had a lot of controversy about it. It will be very low-hanging fruit for any of the candidates to say, we respect the autonomy economy of the local organization. Ergo, we're going to allow these things to proceed again in the way they should have in the first place. And it's just, it's tough. He's so, you know, anybody remember, we're coming up on May long weekend here. Jason Kenny and Jason Nixon

Corey 55:08

toasting to the queen on the balcony.

Corey 55:10

Yeah. I mean, like there's a lot of footage of these guys being total bros and that's not really going to be that helpful for you going forward. Chandro?

Zain 55:17

Chandro? Corey, I'm going to start with you. What is Tyler Chandro's... Is he killing it?

Zain 55:22

he going on his merry way, or is he fucked as well?

Corey 55:30

this just going to be us saying fucked for, like, the entire... No, I don't

Zain 55:33

don't know. It's really 100% up

Zain 55:41

wants to say fucked. I

Corey 55:43

much want to say fucked. I think he's fucked. I think for politics, he's just carrying way too much baggage. If I were him, I would leave before I got in any kind of controversy, maybe come back as an MP in a few years. You'll have the ability to say you're a health minister or whatnot. When

Zain 55:59

When you say leave, do you suspect that there's going to be folks

Zain 56:02

folks who outright leave or saying they're not running again? Oh, they just want to not run again. Not running again. Yeah, just not running again. You don't see some sort of exodus of like, hey, I was a candy camper. You guys all know it. See you later sort of thing. No, I think

Corey 56:12

think it would be very easy, particularly for somebody like Shandra, who's a lawyer yeah you know you can go back you can find yourself a career or put up a shingle just be private practice whatever right it's fine I just leave Carter I

Carter 56:24

think this is a great opportunity for Tyler to remake himself I think that he's not killing it but he can go his merry way and put himself into a leadership campaign work hard be an organizer like he is because he has been an or before he was elected he was an organizer he ran people's campaigns he made campaigns work for others he has a lot of favors that he can still call all in for the political class and he should be calling those favours in to try and either make the next leader or make a kingmaker who will make the next leader because that puts him back in the position where he can retain cabinet and stay somewhat valuable because you know as much as you know Tyler Chandler's got challenges because of what happened during COVID and the leadership that Jason Kenney exerted upon him as health minister he has the ability now to tell a new story now that Jason Kenney has walked the plank. And that is the guy who was here before made me do shit I didn't want to do.

Corey 57:19

Yeah, it doesn't work. It's the same thing that you have with... I have to go with Corey on that. It's like John Turner. I had no option. People are going to say, why didn't you stand up to him? You were health minister. You should have done these things. He is better to avoid those conversations, let some calm, and then come back at a later date. That would be my... If he wants to salvage a political career... You had

Carter 57:35

had to say earlier, and you fucked it up, and I've cleaned it up. Carter? Travis Taves.

Carter 57:41

Oh, he's He's killing it. Why? Why is

Zain 57:44

is he in a different camp than those other two?

Carter 57:46

Travis Taves. First of all, how many people know Travis Taves right now?

Carter 57:51

Not a fucking soul.

Carter 57:54

say about like 35% of the room put

Zain 57:55

put their hand up. I

Carter 57:57

I didn't see anybody.

Carter 57:59

Maybe I didn't care.

Carter 58:02

is that Travis Taves is under the radar. He didn't take the same hits.

Carter 58:08

No. Sit in the front row and say no to me. me, are you fucking nuts?

Carter 58:17

He's not well known outside of the political class. He has the capacity to be seen as someone who can bring together both the progressive side and the conservative side. He looks like he has a brain, which

Carter 58:32

And I think that he actually is in a position where he could win this leadership. He might be the only person I think that could win this leadership that will actually be able to hold both sides sides together. Corey?

Corey 58:43

Yeah, he's killing it. And for some of the reasons Stephen said, many that

Corey 58:47

that he said were not good. But there

Corey 58:50

there is a fundamental point here, and we were talking earlier about the idea of what holds a party together, and it can't be what you're opposed to. If there is something that holds the UCP together, the Wild Rosers and the PCs, it's the idea of the economy and the budget, and wanting to run surpluses,

Corey 59:07

deficits. and he both

Corey 59:10

both sides would say there was a success in the past couple of years of turning the budget around having a surplus this year seeing huge surpluses on the horizon and and Travis Taves as the finance minister was going to get a lot of that shine there's a lot of other realities there one is that he you know he comes from rural Alberta he's a business owner he's a CPA he checks a lot of boxes for both of those groups and he has somehow managed to stand next next to them. Like, he's the finance minister. This is, like, the minister, right? He has stood next to Jason Kenney, and not a lot of shit is on him. So that's a pretty good place to be if you're thinking about trying to bring the party together. Because

Carter 59:47

Because he wears really nice cowboy boots.

Zain 59:50

Yeah, it's about the boots.

Zain 59:52

Corey, I want to throw another name at you, Rajan Sani.

Zain 59:55

This is the transport minister, kind of a sleeper candidate in the cabinet. Many have speculated that she's got leadership ambitions.

Zain 1:00:02

From her perspective, she's been, you know, arguably

Zain 1:00:05

demoted in this news cabinet role that she's had. Is

Zain 1:00:08

Is she killing it? Is she going her merry way? Or is she fucked with her current sort of relationship

Corey 1:00:12

with the Kenney government and what her future ambitions might be? She's in an interesting place. I mean, in some ways she's the flip

Corey 1:00:19

flip side. I want to stress, not as likely to become leader as Travis Taves, but is

Corey 1:00:25

flip side. So is seen as more of a rebel, but not seen as deeply unpalatable to the the kenny loyalists there so it's almost like a justified rebellion and um i

Corey 1:00:38

i i think mary way is the answer i would have to give in this sense it's not it's not something that i'd say is a likelihood but it could be interesting and i certainly i think will be in the next cabinet carter

Zain 1:00:48

carter i have to ask you that same question but then also tag on you

Zain 1:00:51

you know one thing i didn't get to ask you in the last segment was what

Zain 1:00:55

is there room for a sleeper candidate in this in this race or is this going to be strict like institutional it's one of these household names that we know bridge the party work your magic or does a sleeper candidate have some room so give me your answer on Rajan Soni and then talk to me more more more broadly about the sleeper candidate Rajan's

Carter 1:01:13

Rajan's killing it she

Carter 1:01:14

she she has the capacity to come in and be a sleeper candidate she has really good relationships in a lot of different communities that she can take advantage of and then she can for

Carter 1:01:24

for lack of a better word shift that support to other other candidates. She gets to be a kingmaker or a queenmaker. And if you think about, like if you only, we were discussing a little while ago, what happens if only Brian Jean and Danielle Smith are the actual candidates in the race? Ooh, horrible, right? Well, what if it's just those two and Taves? Well, if it's just those two and Taves, then probably Danielle or Brian would win because their votes will likely transfer between the two of them. This is a single transferable vote or a ranked ballot. The importance of the candidates that come in fifth, fourth,

Carter 1:01:58

fourth, and third should not be understated. Rajen Sani is in a place where she can come in fifth or fourth or third and she will be able to transfer significant numbers of votes to one of those other candidates and she can put herself in the position where she says, I'd love to help you, but

Carter 1:02:18

Brian's offered me deputy premier, what are you offering to me? Travis,

Corey 1:02:21

Travis, you're going to need a finance minister.

Carter 1:02:23

Travis, you're going to need a finance minister. I'm smarter than you.

Carter 1:02:28

No, don't do that last part.

Carter 1:02:30

That might be why I get fired.

Zain 1:02:34

Carter, all this could be for naught, because my final question in, are they killing it?

Zain 1:02:39

Should you just go on their merry way? Or are they totally fucked?

Zain 1:02:43

The UCP as a party, as an institution, as a movement,

Zain 1:02:48

at this point right now, the day after Jason

Zain 1:02:51

Jason Kenney says he's no longer going to be leader. Are

Zain 1:02:54

Are they killing it?

Zain 1:02:56

Merry way? Or are they fucked?

Corey 1:02:58

What do you think was the best case scenario for the UCP yesterday?

Corey 1:03:04

In some ways I think it's pretty close to what they got, right? Which is Jason Kenney leaves because he was deeply unpopular and yet because he got enough of the vote that he could technically stick stick around. It looks like the more

Corey 1:03:20

more moderate part of the party actually has a fighting chance in this

Corey 1:03:24

right? And in that sense, maybe killing it's a little too strong, but it's a pretty merry way. The UCP is going to be going into the next election with a couple of advantages, obvious ones. We're looking at a $10 billion, $12 billion surplus, just based on the fact that oil has gone through the bloody roof.

Corey 1:03:42

And we're going to have a fiscal update in August. And so if you imagine a snap leadership race all

Corey 1:03:46

all of a sudden you know in August we've got a 10 billion dollar surplus and

Corey 1:03:49

and maybe September or October we're to the polls

Corey 1:03:53

I mean who loses an election with a 10 billion dollar surplus you can fix every bloody problem you see just by slapping dollar bills on it the other thing you have is the ability to say anything

Corey 1:04:03

anything you didn't like we're not doing that anymore right you no longer have the pride and the and the need for consistency that comes with having a leader so if I'm the new leader of the UCP and let's just just imagine I come from a more moderate wing. Let's just imagine I'm Travis Taves. You know what I say on day one?

Corey 1:04:19

I say, hello, I'm your new premier. And here's a couple of things we're going to do. We are going to kill the curriculum. We are going to ban mining on the eastern slopes. And by the way, our GSA legislation was bullshit. Thank you very much. Lovely to meet you, Alberta. Aren't I a breath of fresh air? By the way, I'm heading to the lieutenant. I'm heading to Zane's mother-in-law's house. And I am going to call an election. Like you would, I think you would be very tough to beat in that scenario carter they're

Carter 1:04:45

they're killing it they're killing it for that reason they are killing it because there is a very i didn't expect either of you to give me that answer well i'm not done i'm

Carter 1:04:54

i'm not done oh you're you're kennying this for me

Carter 1:04:57

they are killing it because they have the opportunity to go through a leadership and an economic update and come out stronger with a candidate that unifies them that is that white knight that jason kenny was a short court four years ago before he's investigated by the RCMP.

Carter 1:05:15

But they also could be going on their merry way. The challenges of having a campaign with baggage like Jason Kenney has put on them, of things like the curriculum review, of things like the mining of the eastern slopes, all of these unpopular things that they think are good because they are conservatives. This is what they think is good. That could put them on their merry way. and finally they could be fucked because they've got two tribes that don't belong together two

Carter 1:05:45

two branches of our family tree that simply don't go together choose one Carter

Zain 1:05:49

Carter what are they yes

Zain 1:05:54

we're gonna leave that segment there to our final segment our final segment no wait we've got one more we'll skip that one about how to scrub Huawei from your resume I will skip that one about being governed by proxy uh well yeah that'd be interesting um that's more than likely um yeah uh our over under in our lightning round stephen

Zain 1:06:15

stephen carter corey hogan are you ready for the final segment i don't think i don't really do

Carter 1:06:19

do it for us i

Zain 1:06:21

i do it i do it for the room carter

Zain 1:06:24

carter overrated underrated daniel smith launching already uh

Carter 1:06:27

uh overrated because who can remember and it happened this morning

Zain 1:06:31

Corey, overrated or underrated? She's already launched.

Zain 1:06:34

Overrated. I actually forgot until you mentioned it again right now. Thank you so much, Corey. One word of advice. You don't know what he wants to do yet,

Zain 1:06:41

but general advice, and you may have already given it on the show, to Jason Kenney today,

Zain 1:06:46

Thursday evening. What would you be telling him if you had a phone call with him today?

Zain 1:06:55

you, Corey. Go further.

Zain 1:06:57

It was one word. I thought I was already off.

Carter 1:06:59

off. It was already over, yeah. There's three words,

Zain 1:07:00

words, and now I'm giving you a sentence. If I liked it, I'd give

Zain 1:07:03

more. That's how this works.

Corey 1:07:04

That's very nice. You do have the opportunity to write your own obituary here, as I was saying earlier. So make sure people are feeling pretty good about you. Be the conciliatory

Corey 1:07:13

conciliatory person. It's all for the good of the party. It's all for the good of the party. Hey,

Corey 1:07:18

sucks for me, but we always knew we wanted to hang together because it's more important that we win as conservatives and don't give the NDP a chance. And then when it all goes absolutely to shit in four years, people will say, oh, man, I miss Jason Kenney. Just

Corey 1:07:31

Just the way they do about George W. Bush, for Christ's sake. Did you see what he said yesterday?

Zain 1:07:36

Yes, I did. Oh, my

Corey 1:07:37

Did we all see it? Excellent. Okay,

Corey 1:07:39

Okay, back to you. But, like, you know, there is something to be said. Don't forget, George W. Bush left with 20% approval, like lower than Donald Trump. And people are like, ah, I miss him. Look at him. He paints now. Isn't that nice? You know, there's like an opportunity for a war criminal to be rehabilitated. I think you can do okay, Jason, but you've got to pick your moment and leave with dignity.

Zain 1:08:02

your one word, and I may give you more advice for Jason Kenney.

Zain 1:08:08

Boards, okay. I thought you were going to say paint.

Carter 1:08:12

Boards pay great. If you can get a couple of boards, you don't even have to work anymore. You can just fly around, go to board meetings, get some money. That's what I would do. Get the board positions. Carter,

Zain 1:08:21

Carter, Rachel Notley. One sentence of advice you're giving her.

Carter 1:08:27

probably it is about figuring out like mapping out the next year you

Carter 1:08:32

you know making sure that you've got a plan for that September election that Corey alluded to make sure you've got a plan for that you know April election April May election make sure that you've got an understanding of how you're connecting with your audience and that connection is actually planned out in an in-depth strategy that you can share with your team Corey

Corey 1:08:48

Corey same question to you it's

Corey 1:08:50

it's about the things you control you don't control who the next leader is you don't control the timing of the election you do control the story you tell to the people of Alberta and the Albertans that you are targeting with that message so focus on that Corey

Zain 1:09:05

for both of you I'm going to start with you and there's no out on this you cannot get out of it oh

Zain 1:09:10

oh that's a challenge this is good the

Zain 1:09:12

the next UCP leader is I

Zain 1:09:15

I think it's I would know I don't say Jason Kenney no

Corey 1:09:17

no I'm going to to say Taves. I think it's going to be Taves if he decides to run because I do think he could unite that party. Carter, the

Zain 1:09:26

is complete that sentence. Rona

Carter 1:09:29

No, but I thought I'd throw out something to meet the audience.

Zain 1:09:33

We're going to leave it there. That's a wrap on episode 992 of The Strategist. My name is Zane Belge.

Zain 1:09:39

With me, as always, Corey Hogan, Stephen Carter, and a live audience here in Edmonton.

Transcript