Transcript
Zain
0:02
This is The Strategist, episode 953. My name is Zain Velji. With me, as always, Corey Hogan, Stephen Carter. Listen, people need to hear what you guys say to me before we go on air. Literally before we go on air, Corey's like, I think Zain's going to fuck this up. No, he
Carter
0:16
he didn't say, I think Zain's going to fuck this up. I guarantee Zain's going to fuck this up. That's actually what he said.
Carter
0:22
said. It's true. It was more definitive
Zain
0:23
definitive than that. Yeah,
Carter
0:23
Yeah, it was absolute. Welcome back,
Corey
0:26
Happy Sunday. We've got an
Corey
0:27
to go here. Yeah.
Zain
0:28
Hour if we're lucky. Let's
Carter
0:29
Let's see. Are we going to keep it short tonight? What are we going to do? We said 90 minutes? Well,
Zain
0:33
Well, I mean, it depends on how long we want to go. There could be some flight delays.
Carter
0:37
Corey and I always try and finish quickly.
Zain
0:42
Corey. All right. That's great. Thank you. I just left a softball for our sponsor, and neither of you picked it up. No, we went right past it.
Zain
0:49
Stephen Carter, what do you make of the Adele album?
Carter
0:52
I'll be honest. I'm not a big fan. Man, I'm more of a Taylor Swift, red, you know, Taylor's version. That's where I am right now. And I got to tell you, I've been listening to the Jake Gyllenhaal stuff.
Carter
1:06
yeah, I'm pretty angry.
Zain
1:08
we going to do two episodes in a row where we let him say Gyllenhaal? You know, what
Carter
1:12
what is it going to be? Gyllenhaal? Is that what I'm going to go with?
Carter
1:16
You know, not one person commented on the Twitterverse.
Zain
1:19
no, that's not true.
Corey
1:19
true. No, they DM'd
Zain
1:23
They DM'd you. I had a stroke.
Zain
1:25
Corey, are you Team Adele, Team Swift, or Team Ye?
Corey
1:30
think I'm Team Swift. I don't know. I've only listened to a couple of songs on the album, but I'm
Carter
1:35
I'm not a big Adele guy. We listened to Adele's album over dinner, and I was so upset I couldn't finish eating.
Zain
1:45
know what? I'm just going to leave that there. Let's move it on to our first segment. Our first segment, Rebel Misfire. Guys, we spent an entire episode last Sunday talking about what happened this weekend. Well, suggesting what should happen this weekend, strategies, tactics, conversations for the UCP AGM, which is now concluded. And one of the last questions, maybe I'll start here with you guys, that I asked both of you. I said, Stephen, Corey, what would the ideal news headline be for Jason Kenney at the end of the UCP AGM? And if I'm not mistaken, you guys can jump in and correct me, Corey, you said something to the extent of Kenny sets the stakes, that he sets the stakes for what happens going forward. Well, let me read you the headline for the Canadian press and what they have written on this fine Sunday evening. The headline from the Canadian press, Kenny more confident in his leadership following United Conservative Party meeting.
Zain
2:41
Sounds like a pretty good headline to me. Corey, what do you make of what happened this weekend from your perspective as we dive into some of the details of what we saw in Calgary for the UCPA GM?
Corey
2:54
Well, I don't think it was very surprising. I think the week leading up to it was full of all sorts of twists and turns. You had the constituency associations pass that threshold of one quarter in order to allow or
Corey
3:07
or to call for an early leadership review. Although let's talk about that in a bit because I did a bit of a dive into their bylaws. And, and then there was, you
Corey
3:15
you know, comments made by one of the MLAs that maybe the party is over effectively. And just in general, it was a bit of a rocky ride over the past, you know, it's so much happened in the past seven days, it's hard to remember. Like this, that was also this last week was the week where he sat or stood next to the Prime Minister of Canada, and they had their petty little squabbling back and forth, the two of them, about
Corey
3:36
about all of these things. But when we actually got to the weekend, it was essentially probably an awkward, tense affair that didn't have the fireworks that I think some people were hoping for. And certainly I would say Jason Kenney won the expectations game, handily, handily won it. You had people like Brian Jean saying things on the first night of the convention like, my back is getting sore from people slapping it saying I should run. Well, that sounds like an expectation rising game. There was all sorts of suggestions that maybe there would be walkouts or less than full support of the premier. But even on the Friday night where Jason Kenney arguably got his one black eye of the convention, when the convention failed to pass a rising of the requirement from one quarter of constituencies to a third, arguably to just sort of short circuit this call for an early review, he
Corey
4:28
he got 57% of the vote in the room. room, just didn't hit that supermajority threshold. So from that moment on, it was pretty clear he
Corey
4:35
he was going to hold the room. He got some standing ovations the next day. Generally speaking, it was a tame affair.
Corey
4:44
it should have been, right? Now, that
Corey
4:47
that same AGM could have been seen as a massive black eye for Jason Kenney if his opponents had handled it entirely differently.
Corey
4:57
They raised expectations. They put people up on slates to run for positions. that they ended up not getting. And they suggested that this convention would show that Jason Kenney doesn't have the support of his party. And that was a big mistake. Jason
Corey
5:11
did a lot better on that front. We'll get into
Zain
5:14
of the details. Carter, I want your take on this, right? Corey mentioned some of the lead-up activities. Let me run you through the ones at least I recall, because
Zain
5:20
because I don't have the news articles in front of me, right? The early leadership review threshold vote that Corey talked about, we'll get into that. The child care announcement, where he used that as a moment to bicker against the prime minister in an awkward press affair in Edmonton. You, of course, then had conversations about other leaders emerging. What's the tone and the tenor of third party PACs paying for registration fees of certain Kenny, pro-Kenny delegates? And then, of course, you had the story, I believe it was the day before, if not two days before, the Thursday, ultimately saying that the premier's office has directed certain people to vote in certain ways explicitly. Implicitly. So didn't look great for Kenny heading into the Friday. To Corey's point, was this a win for Jason Kenny now as we record on Sunday evening, Stephen Carter?
Carter
6:07
was interesting because I think he got caught stacking the deck. I think he got caught putting the aces in certain places that he wanted them to be. And then he dealt up his hand and the aces all came out and everybody went,
Zain
6:20
that's great. He got all aces.
Carter
6:21
aces. Look at him. He's done a great job. Four aces. That's fantastic. So, I mean, he he stacked the deck. He created this scenario for himself and it played out, you know, for thank goodness for him. If it had failed, it would have been quite an epic, you know, piece. But
Carter
6:42
But the only people who looked like they failed through this were Danielle
Carter
6:46
Danielle Smith and Brian Jean. I
Carter
6:48
mean, Danielle answering the question, would you run if
Carter
6:52
if the leadership came available? you know she
Carter
6:55
was like well it doesn't seem available right now but if it did become available i would definitely run like no
Carter
7:00
no play hard to get for god's sake like this is ridiculous to that
Zain
7:04
that question carter would you work for danielle smith should the opportunity to work for her became available for you uh
Carter
7:11
oh no okay no i mean i like danielle quite a bit um but
Carter
7:16
but ultimately uh i
Carter
7:18
i i got a pretty good gig i don't know if you guys are aware but i actually Actually, I
Carter
7:22
got a new job.
Corey
7:24
Do you think that Stephen really wants to be fired by Danielle Smith twice? Yeah.
Zain
7:27
This is the reason I ask. Everybody
Carter
7:29
Everybody gets one chance. And I'm
Carter
7:33
I'm still waiting for you guys to fire me from the podcast, but it hasn't yet happened. I understand things aren't going well with Eric.
Carter
7:41
Good luck getting him in here.
Corey
7:42
No, we're just stuck on numbers. Stuck on numbers. Well,
Carter
7:45
Well, he's been stuck on numbers for decades. gates so i'm
Zain
7:51
i'm usually team eric that's pretty funny uh carter
Zain
7:54
carter i derailed you uh the daniel smith strategy actually let you've opened this up so cory let's talk about this i don't even know if i could call this strategy let me fill in the the listeners from outside of alberta so the western inside alberta yeah sure yeah
Zain
8:07
yeah it's inside news
Zain
8:09
it didn't really did you guys see it catch mainstream to that point cory it did not hey outside of perhaps the the twitter Twitterverse, where the Western Standard, this far-right online media publication,
Zain
8:20
asked Daniel Smith, seemingly on the convention floor, if she would run should the UCP leadership become open. She said, yeah, sure, I would do that. It made the rounds on Twitter. It seemed like one of those shots across the bow from the floor. Carter, you say it's a mistake. Can you finish your point before I go to Corey on if he agrees or not, whether it is a mistake?
Carter
8:44
Never announce your desire for someone else's job while they're still sitting in the job. I mean, it's just not good form. I don't care if it's me saying I want to be vice president of communications and community. What's your title, Corey?
Corey
8:59
Whatever it is. Don't worry.
Carter
9:00
worry. Anyways, I could probably get that job. But it's bad form. It's bad form to announce that I want that job while Corey's still sitting in the seat. I mean, it's probably not long. But anyways, I have to wait until he leaves. Right. Like he or gets fired. And, you know, when that happens, that's when I should start to compete for the job. You don't want to compete. It's just bad form to compete for compete for a job while someone's still sitting in it.
Zain
9:27
You know, I will put out my intention to be chief of staff to the mayor of Calgary, because I'm assuming by the time this recording releases, it's
Carter
9:33
it's probably over for
Zain
9:34
for the guy currently in the gig. Corey, you know, I did the thought exercise with you guys last time, right? If you recall, putting you in the different rooms on the Saturday morning with the Kenney supporters, the anti-Kenney supporters, the cabinet minister. And then I asked you a question about if you were, you know, one of these statesmen in the Conservative Party roaming the floors, What would your strategy be? You guys like pretty aggressively were like, do not fucking declare that you're running. That is not a good idea. And you gave us several reasons. I'm assuming you're going to say Daniel Smith's doing something similar at the convention was a mistake. And if so, why in your mind?
Corey
10:09
Well, for all of the reasons we said, I think it's one of those things that all of a sudden, you know, my read of this is this may have all Brian Jean and Daniel Smith in particular may have strengthened Jason Kenney's hand a bit.
Corey
10:20
Because as we've said before,
Corey
10:22
it used to be is it Jason Kenney or not? Like that was your vote in a binary. Yeah, you know, it's a binary and it's a referendum on Jason Kenney. Now it's a race. Now it's a contest. Do you want Jason Kenney? Or do you want Brian Jean or Daniel Smith? And in some ways, Danielle Smith entering just exacerbates that distinction, right? Makes it more like Jason Kenney is the moderate in that group of people. And, you know, it's not like a basic left-right spectrum is not fair. You've got libertarian versus not. Danielle Smith tends to be more libertarian. There's social conservative or not. And, you know, you could say whatever you want about some of these folks. But it
Corey
11:00
it all of a sudden turns this into you no longer are comparing Jason Kenney to the perfect. You're comparing Jason Kenney to a couple of very real, very known commodities, both of which bring a certain amount of baggage. And fucking fascinating, by the way, because Daniel Smith in 2014 blew up the Wild Rose party by taking most of the caucus over to join Jim Prentice's PCs. pcs and brian gene was the next leader of the wild rose
Corey
11:29
then in turn became the official opposition to the ndp as the pcs were almost wiped off the map so uh you know i don't want to go too far down this rabbit hole interesting i think because smith could have a credible claim to say unity means so much to me that i was doing it before it was cool right you
Corey
11:45
you know i could see the writing on the wall i could see the risk with the ndp so maybe not a totally nuts thing if
Corey
11:51
if the position were to be vacant a little bit nuts to do it right now certainly doesn't
Corey
11:56
doesn't help uh for all of the reasons we went through last week specifically uh someone's gonna have to bring this party back together it's gonna look disloyal to the leader you're gonna have to hope that uh there's not enough of a block that was pro kenny that they can deny you that leadership down the road and by the way based on this weekend obviously there's still at least a few people who support jason kenny carter
Zain
12:16
carter do you feel like you're living in 2012 yeah time into alberta of politics does not seem to be linear and moving forward like
Carter
12:23
what the hell is happening
Carter
12:25
it's the same players i mean uh you know jason kenney's moved from the federal scene to the provincial scene daniel smith's coming back i mean i think the to cory's point this is a uh
Carter
12:39
this is going to help kenny right like we may not like kenny but he's a damn sight better than danielle smith or brian gene could become a a mantra right um you know whereas before you know it could be like well we you know look at all these people who could run look at who who could run and maybe this the the who could runs will still be dominant as they um you know become options in the future um you know oh don't worry about brian gene and danielle smith they're never going to beat blank right they're never going to beat you know this person who's who's rumored to be running in the future that type of of you know perfect candidate the perfect candidate mark carney is just you know itching
Carter
13:23
itching to get into the into this race you know mark carney's i heard it on a podcast but you know those are the types of things that that maybe still take jason kenny down. But if it stays Brian Jean, Danielle Smith, or Jason Kenney, that might be the best case scenario for Jason Kenney.
Zain
13:44
talk to me about what you saw and observed from this weekend that gives you hints about what might happen at a leadership review. Do you feel like these guys are getting rid of Kenney?
Corey
13:54
You know, I'm not really sure. I think obviously this was a show of strength by Jason Kenney in one very real sense.
Corey
14:01
When a leadership review occurs, the rules rules of that review are still very much in control of the board, which Jason Kenney still controls. So a couple
Corey
14:08
couple of, let's maybe just unpack this a tiny bit.
Corey
14:13
We've talked about this in different contexts, but quite often in political parties, the rules for selecting a leader are different for the rules for reviewing a leader. And under the UCP, you know, policies, governance documents, whatever you want to call them, it's one member, one vote-ish, you know, they could could change it to weighted and all of that. But if you're a member, you get to vote for the leader, for the leader. When it comes to a review, the rule is, and it's very simple, I can read it in its entirety.
Corey
14:41
There is a general meeting that's called either a special general meeting, or it's a regular annual general meeting. And then,
Corey
14:48
and I'm quoting, all members eligible to vote on matters at a general meeting shall be eligible to vote in the leadership review. So you control You control who's eligible to vote there. You control the electorate. You control the outcome, as we saw this weekend. So it's not going to be the same as this weekend. It would be very difficult, I think, when you know the leadership is on the table to keep the interest at the level you need and be able to control that outcome. come but it's not hard to imagine all of a sudden there's a 500 convention fee and you've got to go to calgary and it's in calgary and that's jason kenney's backyard and all of those things and then all of a sudden jason kenney gets 57
Corey
15:25
57 of the vote just as he did on on you know his resolution on friday night here and all of a sudden he's passed that leadership review although i think we'd all agree 57 not a super strong leadership number when
Corey
15:39
you get to the actual thing so is he going i don't know that you know that that to me like this weekend makes it less likely because again i think that the the rebels sort of overplayed their hands here and of course tied into this is this notion of an early review right so we mentioned that a bunch of associations called for a review to happen before march 1st and by independently audited you know so that there'd be no fuckery with the numbers well here's
Corey
16:05
here's the thing about that the
Corey
16:07
the the ucp bylaws Because allow
Corey
16:09
allow the constituency associations to request a meeting, but
Corey
16:14
again, I'm quoting here, the date, time, location in Alberta, business to be conducted and rules and procedures for every general meeting will be determined by the board. So they can request a meeting, they can't dictate the terms of that meeting. And I think that allows a certain amount of latitude. And I really doubt we're going to see an early leadership review. And if we do, it'll be, you
Corey
16:34
you know, such a small amount early or they'll
Corey
16:37
we're just going to move the AGM up by a couple of weeks to meet your concerns. And, you know, good luck with a judicial review if you want to sort of challenge this in some way, shape or form. So what
Corey
16:46
what do we see here that makes us think that?
Corey
16:49
that? Well, it's interesting. I'm going to throw it to you two now. Like, what do you think based on what I just told you here? What's
Zain
16:54
What's going to happen? I'm going to actually put it right to you, Carter, because I see you smiling. I see you've been part of conversations like this in the past where the vagary of some of the bylaws and governance documents are by design for those that are in power. Tell me what you see from what you've read and perhaps even color it with what you saw and experienced this weekend for Jason Kenney on maybe straight up trajectory.
Carter
17:17
I don't know whether, you know, there was an anti-vax protest outside the Grey Eagle when the first motion was read that, you know, should Jason Kenney be facing or should we move the number from one quarter of the constituency associations to one third? And part
Carter
17:35
part of me thought, well, maybe
Carter
17:36
maybe that's really good organizing. You know, Jason Kenney kept the other protesters out or kept the opposition out. But I think it could very reasonably be said that he – it was the opposite, that the – maybe he would have done better. But I think that this – I still think that Jason Kenney is a better political operative than a political strategist and winning the leadership review is all about operatives.
Carter
18:05
He's got some good ones and I still – I
Carter
18:08
I wouldn't bet against him but
Carter
18:11
I wouldn't bet with him either, right? Right. Like, I'm just I'm really pleased we got a podcast that isn't going to be allowed to be media at the at the AGM, at the next AGM, because they don't want any real independent media. They just want Derek Fildebrandt.
Zain
18:26
It's really unfortunate. I mean, we tried. We had our sponsor try so many times. Unfortunately, just they just couldn't get it done. Couldn't couldn't take that one off. Stuck
Carter
18:34
Stuck at the gate.
Zain
18:34
gate. Stuck at the gate. at flare airlines uh carter you know okay
Zain
18:38
okay i want to take us back i want to take us back to the same thought exercise i made you do last sunday but i want to do rapid fire this time so you're back in the room you're both of you are tag teaming you're back in the room the weekend has happened so you're back in these hospitality suites that you're going to you're traveling to one after another after another let's go back to the pro kenny bunch what are you telling them to do tonight forward seems like the headline that they got was perhaps even better than the one they had anticipated. Seems like the weekend they may have had was maybe not just a contextual win on expectation setting, but now with Gene and Daniel Smith announcing they may have something to play with. Carter, Corey, maybe I'll start with you, Carter, and jump in, Corey. What are you telling this group to do going forward right now, heading into the leadership review?
Carter
19:22
You won the expectation game because there were low expectations.
Carter
19:27
Do not change from low expectations to high expectations. That would be a real mistake. To move away from understanding that you've done well because people expected you to do horribly. So don't start running around talking about what a great victory it was. Don't go start running around saying we're right back on the right track. I think that you should be talking about how things are difficult and things are difficult because of COVID. And this premier has the opportunity now, now that the fourth wave is ending. and that the rest of the world continues to struggle. This premiere is going to show that Alberta can, in fact, have a cohesive plan for economic and health recovery that works. And that's what you're going to be judged on in the future, is your future plans, not where we are brought to today and certainly not by any false expectation games created by the media.
Zain
20:25
Corey, Court Carter says at all costs, do not increase or inflate expectations for yourself. Anything to add to this group?
Corey
20:31
Yeah, a couple of things. I want to jump on that and then I want to expand a bit. So interestingly, Jason Kenney did
Corey
20:37
did not take Carter's advice on Sunday. He said that he was more confident in his leadership than he had been previously and even floated numbers like, yeah, I don't know if I get 90, 95%. I can't remember what the number was, but, you know, I'm feeling why. Why? Why, man? Why do that? A, don't put any numbers out there besides 50%. that's what's required to continue to be leader and b somebody
Corey
21:00
somebody else could have carried that message you could have gotten that message out there and i understand why you wanted that message out in the press but that should have been carried by a cabinet minister by mla saying yeah well clearly uh you know that the rebels aren't all they're cracked up to be something like that yes you want to create this sense that maybe it's not in danger and maybe the cool kids are all with jason kenney and maybe you should be too and maybe that's how you create a bit of a train I'm not 100% sold on the value of that, but I can understand the logic, I guess is what I would say. But in terms of what now, this was a moment that you needed to survive. You know, we've said this in the context of other
Corey
21:35
AGMs. Survive, not thrive is often the rule for these kinds of things, right? And that remains true in this case as well. And he survived it and he did pretty well.
Corey
21:45
Now, you've got to turn your attention to the next one. you know your next flashpoint is going to be the question of these you know 22 constituencies calling for the early review so you're going to have to find a way to give them what they want but not give them what they want i i recommend exactly what i said which is well we'll move it up two weeks we can basically keep everything the same it allows us to do that you know it's happening anyways blah blah blah whatever don't fundamentally change the game or uh but look like you're at least pretending to and then you've got to figure out what exactly it's going to take to to win this review, first of all, obviously, delegates, people to come up and vote. And this is where Jason Kenney, the organizer, can excel, to Stephen's point, and can get out those numbers that he needs.
Corey
22:27
Of course, you've got to be aware that the other side is going to see this as when all of the marbles need to be put on the table, too. And so you've also got to build yourself. And I actually think this is of lesser importance, but it's important coming out of it from a media narrative, because you can't have it saying, I won because I just strong-armed everybody from from an organizer point of view. But you want to start doing some things that you can point to and say, yeah, this is my comeback story, right? Like all of a sudden, the economy is doing great. All of a sudden, we had relative calm in the caucus. All of a sudden, you
Corey
22:59
you know, those tough decisions I made during COVID began to pay off, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. And you start writing that hero narrative we were talking about last week. Would you include childcare in
Corey
23:08
conversation? Yeah, I don't know. I mean, I don't even care, to be honest, Zane. Like, it's irrelevant. Because really what you're trying to do is not convince people on it you're trying to make it so that when it happens there's a story that you can then carry forward into more meaningful political fights most specifically the general election that will be coming a year later but that's what you've got to do uh i i'm not a hunt you know we'll see how all of these rule fights come out and and whether the bylaws carry something that i just missed uh although i don't think so and of course this is a new is literally the first time they've done a review but
Corey
23:41
but um you know win that show up with the most delegates when you steamroll your opponents because you're willing to pull every lever at your disposal at least pretend it's for a different reason and then fight like hell towards the next election that's the plan if you're jason kenney carter
Zain
23:56
carter you the membership will dictate whether you win or die or you live or die so to speak is
Zain
24:02
is is one eye focused on the the general population at this point or do you just not care you're just here for survival of the membership and that is all we fucking care about between now and april or do you have to with the timeline ever so creeping towards 2023 even in this interim period let's say november to april have an eye on the gen pop and all the tools of fundraising and how the public sort of responses to you or do you just care about members right now no
Carter
24:28
no i think you're gonna you're gonna going to organize to put your best delegates in the room but
Carter
24:33
you're also going to have to construct a story right
Carter
24:36
right because you're at 20 in the polls whatever the number is right like you're going to get wiped out in calgary everybody's told you that this election is over well even
Carter
24:45
even if they love jason kenney and i'm not sure that they love jason kenney but
Carter
24:49
but even if they love them if they're going to get wiped out they're going to try something different um
Carter
24:52
um so there will be metrics that the that the members look at the delegates go to and
Carter
24:58
and those metrics are going to include, you
Carter
25:00
you know, wondrous things like, you know, can you go from 20 points to 28 points? I mean, if I was Jason Kenney, I'd be talking about being stuck at 20 points now. I'd be talking about, you know, how hard it's been and how COVID has kept you guys down. And then in the new year, you
Carter
25:17
know, miraculous recoveries. All of a sudden we're at 24, 26, 28. It doesn't have to be 42.
Carter
25:24
It just needs to be something that's over 20. I'd make sure that everybody Everybody knows they're 20
Carter
25:30
Push, push, push. Make sure you know what the bottom looked like so that you can start to see a movement up. And the same thing with the fundraising. Already we've seen a quarter now that was much closer, I think, for the UCP than it was to the NDP. I still think they're a bit behind. But it's time to really ramp up the next quarter. quarter um one reason you want it in april and not in march is if you could have the leadership review in april and you can leak out what your fundraising numbers were before have yourself a spectacular first quarter in fundraising and all of a sudden jason kenney's on the upswing and if jason kenney's on the upswing and polling and in money and in organization and putting delegates in the room he's going to win not in a landslide certainly not 90 95 but you
Carter
26:17
you know he could get 78
Corey
26:19
yeah yeah that was an inside joke still
Carter
26:22
still a kiss a very inside joke still
Corey
26:24
still a kiss of
Carter
26:24
of death uh cory let's
Corey
26:25
let's 78 is the percent that ed stalmack got on his review and 78 is the percent that allison redford got on her review and
Corey
26:32
and the joke is both of them were gone within a matter of months but
Carter
26:36
but now you've explained the joke to them i
Corey
26:38
i know jokes are always funnier when you explain them No, they're not.
Corey
26:41
Why do we care about listeners? You
Zain
26:43
You got it. Seinfeld said that. Carlin said that. Shandling said that. I mean, so many of the greats. Rock, Chappelle, they've all said it. Corey, you know, you're in the room with the Rebels. Not a great weekend. What advice are you giving them? Are you trying to say, convert this back to a test of the perfect? Get rid of Gene and Smith? Put them back in their box in the corner? Or is it too late that they're now out and we have to deal with it? What are you telling them? Yeah,
Corey
27:07
Yeah, it's a little too late for that. But I think first thing I'm doing is I'm scolding them and I'm saying, you
Corey
27:12
you played the expectation game wrong. So what did you learn? You had learned that you have to find a way to make it so that the expectation of victory is always on Jason Kenney's side and you can thwart it, not the other way around here. because you walked into that with every reporter in this province salivating at a gong show of an AGM you know and I I was watching Twitter uh pretty pretty readily on Friday night and I was seeing reporters saying like oh there's buttons that you know you're wearing if you're pro Jason Kenney uh oh and you know not everybody's wearing them you can basically you know I think it was Jason Marcus I've said you can basically tell if it's government stuff totally true right but like Like you could tell from some of the angles that were in there that people were sort of waiting for something
Corey
27:58
something more dramatic than was destined to happen, I guess, right? And so that was in no small part because the rebels had thrown everything but the kitchen sink at Jason Kenney in the week leading up to this AGM. And that was a mistake. That was a mistake because that led everybody to sensibly believe that this was going to be the moment, the infliction point. This is why you're putting everything out now. This is why the timing of those things mattered. You fucked up. You know, in fact, you should have stomped on all of Jason Kenney's quote unquote victories by releasing that letter with the 22 constituency associations Monday after the convention. You should have had many of those comments coming after the convention. The fact that he's buying all of those AGM convention delegate passes after the convention. Because the damage is done. His ability to get the success does not change by you releasing those things in the week before the convention. If you undermined his victory the week after, that's a different ball of wax altogether. together. So yeah, once I'm done the scolding, because they can't change anything now, I would say, now you know better. And now what you have to do is make it all about Jason Kenney has reasserted himself in this party. He
Corey
29:10
He and and see where you can take it from there. Because then once again, everything bad that happens to him is another opportunity to knock him down a bit. But, you
Corey
29:21
take a step back, take a look at what's happening here. And understand that at the the end of the day if jason kenney is going to win this on numbers as the great organizer you're going to have to win this on numbers you're going to have to find your own numbers you're going to have to take them out carter
Zain
29:34
cringing at that suggestion are you agreeing
Carter
29:36
yeah i mean you can do the organization game but i still think that the better game is to actually change the expectation strategies right like he won because you made his expectations so low that you know it made it impossible i think you need to change the expectations and say You know, why did 78% not work for Stelmac and Redford? Because the expectation was 90. You know, so set the expectation. You know what, Jason Kenney, Jason
Carter
30:03
Jason Kenney was right to say he'd be able to get 90, 95%. This was a big show. I am impressed. And you know what, says Brian Jean, I am more
Carter
30:13
more committed to his leadership today than I've ever been.
Corey
30:16
I am more committed
Corey
30:18
committed to the people. Too far. I'm
Carter
30:21
I'm more committed to the, you know what the strength of the UCP is, Corey, the thing that you've never understood? It's all about the members.
Carter
30:27
It's not actually about the leader. And the members today show that they can work together because being together is more important. Being together and beating the NDP is more important than anything.
Carter
30:37
It's more important than anything. And if it means that we work with Jason Kenney, then damn it, I am willing to roll up my sleeves and work with Jason Kenney. And I expect them to get 90%. I expect to see the rebound in the polls. I expect to see our fundraising jump up because it is time right now that Albertans get behind this party, get behind this leader, because we can't have another four years of the disastrous NDP government.
Corey
30:59
So here's what I think you should not do if you're Brian Jean.
Carter
31:03
No sour grapes. This is a great time. No sour grapes. You know what? I've always said I can serve with anyone. And Jason Kenney is a friend of mine. We served together in the Harper government for decades.
Corey
31:13
Again, too far. Jason
Carter
31:13
Jason Kenney and I – It was the best man at my wedding. Jason Kenney was the best man at my wedding, and I will be the best man at his wedding. I'm told nuptials are coming soon.
Carter
31:24
Right? This is exciting. I'm excited.
Carter
31:28
But in all seriousness,
Zain
31:28
seriousness, Corey, is there anything Machiavellian – That was
Carter
31:32
was my strategy, not all seriousness. seriousness how is that how
Carter
31:37
how does it need a segue in all seriousness you
Zain
31:39
you lost you lost us at the best man at the wedding part which i inserted as as pretty much a shut the fuck up carter but you were like yeah let me just lean into this for it what other warnings would you have for the rebels because there's part of them that probably would be like oh shit not a great weekend kenny looks stronger than ever before do we self-sabotage do we make sure fundraising doesn't go well how do we throw him off his game any advice for a group that that might want to deflect to some what i would loosely categorize as as machiavellian and risky tactics uh in the next couple of months yeah
Corey
32:11
yeah well okay let me expand a bit on what i was saying about the operations thing if you sit there and you assess that you actually cannot out-organize jason kenney and that he's going to end up getting 57 of the vote if everything just continues on the same tracks then what you need What you need to do is you need to get off the tracks. You need to find a different game here. And where you have had some success is in giving him body blows via his caucus and via the public narrative about him. So that's where you're going to need to focus your efforts again and see if you can't put enough pressure on it that there is just an expectation. reputation, and I don't know how successful this is going to be, because I don't get the sense that Jason Kenney is about to say, oh,
Corey
32:48
oh, I guess I'll just give rules that are very bad for me because you're making me feel guilty about them, right? But, you know, you set this thing where it becomes almost this critical mass, and if you can pull some of his caucus away, if you can start trickling out actual members of people saying, this is too far, this guy's got his thumb on the scale to make sure he wins the leadership, this is not a clean leadership review, this is him determining who's allowed to be there and whatnot and pull away his actual source of power which is his mlas which allows him to be the premier uh i mean that's your door number two i suppose um and that is all about narrative and that is all about the expectation game so it's
Corey
33:26
it's this is a tough one like i actually think the rebels need to sit back and have an honest self-reflection and say are
Corey
33:33
are we full of shit here do we have any ability to get this done carter
Carter
33:37
it's it's totally doable but i think that the biggest problem that rebels have when they're going after a leader is showing your face right as soon as that see as soon as it is shown that there's a person behind the momentum uh as soon as you know when when jim denning is seen to be pulling the levers after after ralph klein when paul martin is seen to be pulling the levers after after kretchen um you know when you know when turner's trying to get out pierre elliott trudeau all of those p all of that lever pulling the the showing the man behind the the curtain that really undermines the the idea that it's a grassroots swell of unhappiness and a grassroots swell of unhappiness is what takes
Carter
34:22
takes down real leaders um so my my recommendation is get the hell out of the way let the grassroots do this work because this is a grassroots that will um as much as they will fall behind the leader and show support, they will also put the knife in people's backs, especially if they're unhappy. This is a particularly happy moment. There was an article that I think it was Varco wrote in the Herald.
Carter
34:49
Jobs are up, oil prices are up, there's
Carter
34:52
there's a temperature shift happening in Alberta, and
Carter
34:56
maybe it's just in time just to save Jason Kenney from himself.
Zain
35:00
Last question here, guys. I'm going to start with you, Carter. Carter, final room, and it's a cabinet minister and it's a few other conservative statespeople, right? They say, Carter, has our strategy changed after this weekend? You told us that we have to be pro-Kenny on the floor. We did our job, but now Daniel Smith is out. Now Brian Jean is out. This is no longer a competition versus perfection. This is a competition versus choices. And now people have got two choices, many of whom they may not like. Is it time for me to start declaring bearing that I could be one of those choices? Does anything change for me, Carter? Just make sure I'm still solid, sticking with the leader. What do you think?
Carter
35:38
You've got the brand new opportunity to defend this leader by tearing down Brian Jean and Daniel Smith.
Carter
35:44
The world could not be better. As you're sitting there defending Jason Kenney, you're tearing down Daniel Smith and Brian Jean, your two most likely leadership contenders. Rip the shit out of them. Destroy them. Remind everybody that Brian Jean Gene had the opportunity to beat Rachel Notley, who had four seats in the legislature and all of a sudden became the accidental prime premier because Brian Gene was so weak, so weak that he couldn't beat her. Right.
Carter
36:10
Right. That's what happened. A collapse of the of the PCS and Brian Gene couldn't pick any of it up. Instead, it went to socialists, Socialist Party beat the shit out of Brian Gene and Danielle Smith. She had the government. She had it. It was in her hands, and she let it go away because she couldn't stop the lake of fire. You know what? You know who stopped lake of fire? Jason Kenney, the guy I'm serving with right now.
Carter
36:37
Jason Kenney's our guy. We're going to tear down these other two because Jason Kenney's the one I'm standing with. Oh, and by the way, if it happens that Jason Kenney gets knocked out, I've brought down my opposition, and it's easier for me to step in.
Zain
36:50
Corey, build on what Carter said here. Is the strategy, well, not only just stay the same, but does it lean into what Carter's saying now? If you are one of the cabinet minister, conservative states people that on that floor, we're defending Jason Kenney and ensuring that he got the standing ovations, the votes and the enthusiasm that led to a pretty good weekend for him. Well,
Corey
37:09
Well, I mean, Carter is spot on. Everything he said, I agree with. It's interesting as a thought exercise to imagine a cabinet minister who says, prisoner's dilemma. You know, if I'm the one who goes the other way, it actually works for me because it allows us to say, like,
Corey
37:23
like, okay, this is now your option on the moderate side of the party, right? Like, I don't know. I mean, fascinating. That's kind
Zain
37:29
kind of what I was alluding
Corey
37:30
alluding to in some
Zain
37:30
some ways, right? Fascinating
Corey
37:32
Fascinating thought exercise. I think in practice, you could really only do that if it was like, if the stench of death on Jason Kenney was so strong that the neighbors were calling the cops.
Corey
37:42
Because otherwise, it's just going to be, well, fuck
Corey
37:47
fuck you too, and you're out. And it wouldn't even necessarily hurt the guy additionally, too, too badly, because there's already open rebellion. So it just becomes his opportunity to clean that house.
Zain
37:57
I'm going to leave that segment there. We'll touch upon it later. Carter, by the way, just for a matter of trivia, which one of you two in this last segment said the line, I recommend exactly what I said? Was it you or Corey? I just want to have you take a guess at it.
Zain
38:12
Yeah, that's right. So when that does come up on our yearly trivia game, that Corey really is self-referential to the point of really pumping his own tires. Thank you, Corey, for that totally unnecessary phrase. Yeah, totally unnecessary phrase. I know,
Corey
38:28
as I as I always say, Zane, you're welcome. Okay,
Zain
38:32
Let's move on to our next segment. Our next segment inflation versus implosion. Stephen Carter, let's go to the federal scene. The house returns tomorrow, Monday. Yeah, we've got I said 15 minutes, Corey, but 15 minutes 39 minutes. What's the difference? What is time at flare airlines? We do not care.
Zain
38:49
What is worse right now? Now, tell me which federal leader is in a worse position. You got Justin Trudeau. He gets to be prime minister. That sounds great. He's got a speech from the throne coming up on Tuesday. The House resumes, but he's tackling inflation. He's tackling significant inflation, perhaps even pushing back against his, if I can call it loosely, his Build Back Better agenda, his government spending agenda, big major government programs announced, promised, now waiting to be delivered. But inflation, the cost of living, groceries, gas, et cetera, rising everywhere across the country. That's Justin Trudeau. Then you got Aaron O'Toole, who seems to, at least on the surface, be in a shittier position. The wall seemed to be caving in a bit. You know, people didn't hear from him in a while. When they did, he showed up and tried to talk about the liberal NDP coalition government. That had a bit of mileage, but not a ton. done we thought that the overt or more explicit attacks on his leadership were done and then of course then
Zain
39:50
then conservative senator denise batters came out with a petition voicing the fact that aaron o'toole ran as a liberal we don't win when we run as liberals i'm paraphrasing uh he needs to go he no longer has the trust of the party trust trust trust we can't trust this guy no longer trust aaron o'toole then rejects pretty much says i reject the premise and by the way You're out of caucus for the conservatives. Give it to me top line, Carter. Which problem is worse, Justin Trudeau or Aaron O'Toole?
Carter
40:21
Aaron O'Toole's is worse because
Carter
40:22
because he's not the prime minister. Yeah,
Zain
40:25
I mean, that's pretty
Zain
40:28
You're leading me exactly where I need to. Don't worry, Corey.
Carter
40:31
I got it. No, you've got it. It's all good. Okay. Aaron O'Toole's problems are real, but I like that he was showing leadership. uh denise batters has not exactly been someone that you think to yourself you know what there's an all-star senator there's someone we need to keep in the senate to make sure that uh she's representing uh canadians views she doesn't represent canadians views uh she's you know getting her out of your caucus not a bad thing um showing leadership great thing you know so i think that i think that o'toole while he's not in the same great spot that uh justin
Carter
41:08
justin trudeau is in i I think he strengthened his position this week. And I also think that, you know, Trudeau, the things that you're talking about are, I mean, they're real in the extent. I mean, gas prices are, you know, going up for sure. And people are going to feel that crunch of inflationary pressures. But on the other hand, we're out of the house right now.
Carter
41:33
We're out of the house. We're going to the office sometimes, some of us. things aren't things aren't quite as bad as they were for the last two years
Zain
41:41
Corey Aaron O'Toole's is worse tell us let's walk down the Aaron O'Toole track and then let's sit on Justin Trudeau if that's okay Aaron O'Toole what do you make of the state of his leadership right now do you feel like it's the walls are caving in or do you feel like her being out of caucus was a solid move that could see O'Toole with a bit of rebound um
Corey
41:58
I don't know I I think think it it's less that it was a solid move by aaron o'toole and it was a not solid move by batters right this is one of these situations where and in some ways it's the same story as what we're talking about in alberta when the rebels come out too
Corey
42:12
too soon and everybody says well i don't know um uh you almost force people to pick the other side and it can strengthen the hand of the very person that you're trying to weaken uh especially if it looks like nobody's next right like you come out and you step forward it's oh yeah anybody want to challenge me take a a step forward from the line you take a step forward and nobody follows you that can be very problematic and that can make uh you know the quote-unquote rebels again look very very weak so um i
Corey
42:39
don't think that uh it necessarily is speaking to o'toole's strength so much as a very bad tactic by batters um might
Corey
42:47
might have the same end effect though might have strengthened aaron o'toole in the end and certainly my sense is that it has because nobody wants their party to look like a shit show. So if this is the way to make their party look like less of a shit show at this particular moment, we are recording on a Sunday night before the house comes back, then yeah,
Corey
43:04
yeah, good. Awesome. We'll see what tomorrow brings. But I don't think that Aaron O'Toole is in a weaker position after Batter's actions.
Zain
43:12
Yeah, the reason I phrased my question as a comparison between the two leaders is, I feel like one's on an upswing and one may not be. And I feel like the one on the upswing, ironically, might be Aaron O'Toole, which is he, to the exact, to your point, Corey, to the exact same tactic and perhaps tactical misfire by the conservatives, the rebels in the federal conservative party, going too early, putting out a multi-pronged strategy, saying there's several behind me, having voiceless MPs, none of them wanting to show their face in caucus, jumping on board and having a petition that largely didn't, you know, get off the ground. Is Aaron O'Toole perhaps in a better position here to take advantage of, you know, the House sitting tomorrow especially if he can get his caucus in line on on you know vaccinations which is going to be a big spotlight heading into tomorrow yeah
Corey
43:58
yeah we've said this in a hundred different contexts but there's a certain fog of war in politics right whether you're an advocacy group from the outside whether you're a rebel in a caucus whatever it may be uh and there are just only certain moments where that fog lifts and you can actually see the size of the armies and and what happened here is denise batters sent satellite photos of how fucking small hers was yeah
Corey
44:20
and that made everybody say okay well maybe that's not such a great side to be on right now and
Corey
44:25
and so uh well quite a dramatic moment i think one that ultimately weakens the rebel cause not to say that the rebel cause is dead it might be one of those situations where the pendulum swings the other way and people say okay now he's walking around like
Corey
44:38
like you know way too confident and you know maybe that starts a whole other round of grumbling i
Corey
44:44
think that when you talk about it it relative to Justin Trudeau, though. I mean, let's
Corey
44:48
let's get real. Justin Trudeau is still the Prime Minister of Canada. There's a reason why we say the worst day in government is better than the best day in opposition. It's because he can still do all of the things he wants to do. Aaron O'Toole can only dream about them.
Zain
45:02
Fair point. Carter, let's talk about O'Toole. Let's get into strategy mode for some of this stuff, right? So O'Toole has said that all 118 of his MPs who will be in the the House when it returns on Monday, very specifically using that phrase, will either be fully vaccinated or they have a medical exemption. He's repeatedly refused to say how many are not fully immunized. The groundwork right now for O'Toole, you know, walk me through what a strategic sort of angle or framework he should be looking at to solidify his leadership is. Of course, he needs to get through tomorrow, ensure it isn't a big issue regarding vaccinations, vaccinations, but he may have added a source of strength with the batter's move. What does he need to do to solidify terrain for his leadership as questions still surround whether he's the right guy to lead the Conservatives going forward? Have an excellent
Carter
45:51
excellent rebuttal to the speech from the throne, you
Carter
45:53
you know, have performed well in the House. This is an opportunity to get the journalists back on track. I mean, I think we've spoken before that, you know, realistically, Statistically, you know, people aren't really paying attention to question period. The exception to that rule is the journalists. The journalists will watch and see how is your caucus responding to the questions from the leader of the opposition to the prime minister. Are they leaping up and pounding their desks and saying, this is, yes, yes, here, here, you know, push, push, yes, this is what we need. We really got them there. The heckling, is it loud or is it not loud? Those
Carter
46:34
Those are the types of measures that journalists will pick up on and they will see and say, oh, this appears to be a caucus that is behind Aaron O'Toole or that isn't, depending on what the mood of the caucus is. I suspect the caucus will be jumping up and down and banging on their desks in no small part because there's probably, I don't know how many new caucus members there are, let's say 10, that are just going to be super excited. And everybody starts to buy into that. We're back in. We're actually doing something.
Carter
47:04
And I think that's going to be exciting for the entire caucus. us.
Zain
47:09
Corey, you know, I want to talk about the strategy of what journalists and pundits call asking the question. There's been a lot of Aaron O'Toole should just go ahead and ask the question. This is now the time to do it. Put your leadership test on the line. Just fucking do it. Ask the question. You know, and there's many who are trying to say, you know, Batters is not a fringe person. She represents a larger coalition. She's not a pariah. There's a group of folks behind her. They're silent MPs. This is just what this is trying to do is have the grassroots do that leadership review. Erin O'Toole should just frickin' call the question. You can see the parallels here in Alberta. In that sense, what do you think kind of goes into this calculation of a leader calling the question or saying, fuck it, you know, I can't have this cut me every single day. I'm just going to put my leadership to the test. We'll be done this once and for all. And do you kind of feel like this is where O'Toole might be right now?
Corey
48:09
No. You know, I think that's one of those things that's dramatic and would make a great episode of the West Wing. But there's a reason why I think the West Wing is the worst piece of television.
Carter
48:18
How dare you, sir?
Corey
48:19
sir? That's been on TV for the past 20 years because it rots people's brains. It makes people think that politics is different than it is. It makes people reach for the dramatic moment. moment. But in reality, most governance, most politics, most business is better when it's not dramatic. And calling a question is a very dramatic moment. You are effectively asking people to stand up and stand with a side. And what do you do then? At least if somebody is moderately opposed, you have the opportunity to bring them back before you force them to stand up and be counted with the rebels. Because here's the thing, Zane.
Corey
48:52
Becoming a rebel is a one-way street. There is
Zain
48:54
is no way to
Corey
48:54
to come back from that. But standing up and being with the leader, it's very easy to change your mind the next day. All you're doing is you're forcing the soft opposed to become strong opposed. There's no reason to call a question. That's fucking lunacy. It's a dumb, dumb way that you would want to run a political party. And it's one of these things that when I hear leaders threatening it, I think, what a stupid threat. What a hollow threat. What a simple threat. And the only opportunity to use it would be if you truly knew the person standing up was standing alone. Do you know that about the conservative caucus? Seems like we're hearing the the opposite and so the question
Corey
49:29
question also is not is we're not talking about a procedural thing uh you know well there is the question could be called every fucking day as a secret
Zain
49:38
secret vote like yeah just like standard like you know so consent agenda sort of thing for a caucus yeah like
Corey
49:43
like so as you know it's item two as always we've approved the minutes now it's time to see do we support erin o'toole right like there's no reason for this and it looks a bit weak you know be strong you are the leader You're the leader until otherwise. Make them call the fucking question if they want to be tough guys. You're the leader.
Zain
50:02
Carter, considerations on this quote-unquote calling the question, which seems to be circulating in the air, so to speak, around O'Toole.
Carter
50:09
No, just keep doing what you're doing. Lead. Leadership is what people want from you. So lead, be strong. I think that the batter's expulsion was great because it showed strength. strength um that type of movement and leadership is what we want so people aren't angry because they lost the election you know they're angry because um they
Carter
50:34
think they could have won the election you know these are the opportunities that they're trying to dig into let them let them be angry for a little bit but now it's time to start bringing them back on on team let's hold uh
Carter
50:46
uh let's hold justin trudeau to account and the way i would start doing this that i'd I'd hand out plum questions to people who are perceived to be my enemies. I'd make sure that my close allies are still my close allies, you know, helping me prep for QP, whatever
Carter
51:02
whatever the situation may be. I'd be making sure that the plums of
Carter
51:06
of the office, such as they are, are
Carter
51:08
are being handed out to everybody equally and
Carter
51:10
people are able to share in the success that we have.
Zain
51:15
I want to talk about another like strategic tool, right? Right. So one was calling the question. The other one was another dramatic tool, which was you can always get rid of folks. Aaron O'Toole got rid of Denise Batters. He got rid of her from his from the conservative caucus. She's, of course, a senator, not a member of parliament. Your take on what you saw there, like the swift action, clearly a strategic win, as Carter would address. Do you agree? I want to get your take on. Do you agree that it was a strategic win? And I'm kind of curious what you make of it as related to, you
Zain
51:46
you know, is that something you should have done and should be allowed to do?
Corey
51:49
interesting, right? And high drama, because apparently fired via voicemail. Oh,
Zain
51:54
Oh, yeah. Let's never forget that voicemail is the second best way to fire someone. Stephen, what is the first?
Zain
52:04
No, the first is actually booking him a ticket for Flair Airlines, because we know, Corey,
Zain
52:10
Corey, just keep going. Keep going. Our sponsor probably won't like that one because
Zain
52:13
because it was going to end up in
Corey
52:14
in a dark spot for
Corey
52:21
Well, what can we say about this? It's an interesting one. There's this paradox within political parties that I think needs to be discussed. And people tend to take very absolute forms of what they think is right or is wrong. But we have a situation where we have provided, whether it's to the caucus or the party, the tools to remove a leader through a leadership review. Right.
Corey
52:42
Now, we also demand caucus discipline. And, you know, that discipline is, is by and large, for practical terms to the leader, you can't have somebody shooting off and damaging the work of the caucus by going against the leader. And you saw Michelle Rempel complaining about these batters, taking on O'Toole, because it took them off their agenda and off their message. So I, you know, there is a reality here that nonstop attacks on the leader damages the party damages the caucus, right? And you can't damage a party or a caucus. But where
Corey
53:11
where is the line here? Because if you're allowed to oppose the leader, if leadership reviews are a thing, then when is the appropriate time for a caucus member, like a senator at that rate, you know, like not even somebody who's an elected caucus member?
Corey
53:25
Are they never allowed to speak disloyalty to the leader? Should there be a window of two months before a vote where they're able to say, yeah, I actually don't like them? I think we agree generally that cabinet members, because they've agreed to be part of a smaller team specific to the leader, and probably shadow cabinet by extension shouldn't be allowed. But are we really saying you can never say anything bad about the leader? I think that's an interesting question, and I actually don't know where I land on that. But
Corey
53:50
But it's a tough one because
Corey
53:52
because – It's not that tough.
Corey
53:54
Isn't it? No, it's not. I mean she's a senator in like a conservative caucus.
Carter
54:00
Yeah, but I have a boss, right? right? You have a boss. You're not allowed to just walk around to everybody on the team that you work for and the team that, you know, the other teams that you don't necessarily work for and say, you know what? My boss is an idiot.
Carter
54:14
My boss does not know what they're doing. They are so lucky to have me. I'm able to hold this thing together. My boss doesn't even, I mean, frankly, I do all the work and nothing actually positive happens for my boss if it's not for me because he or she is unable to do it. You can't do that. You can't walk around and talk about your boss in those in that type of context aaron i can't
Corey
54:33
can't wait for those clips to be taken out of context although it's
Carter
54:36
it's going to be spectacular um aaron o'toole we'll make it part of you it's going to be on twitter tomorrow guys next week's episode derek fildebrand is going to run that chat guaranteed um but anyways here here's the thing uh you can't do that because it undermines your relationship with your boss it undermines your boss's relationship with everybody else and it it makes you look bad and makes your boss look bad so you're not going to do it so why should denise batters be allowed to walk around as someone who has an elected boss elected by the people that they both serve right the membership who they both serve and so why should she be allowed to walk around without consequence and criticize that person we wouldn't allow it in any other circumstance there's no other circumstance where that's allowed but
Corey
55:21
but what other circumstances like this what other circumstances is
Carter
55:24
everybody every relationship where you have a boss insubordination is not tolerated with all this in what
Corey
55:32
we're going to tell i agree with all of that i
Carter
55:34
i know but because the difference with a political party because you're my subordinate and that's what you have to do and
Zain
55:40
and both of you report to me this is this is correct yeah all
Zain
55:43
all right let me play the other side out here just a little bit you're
Carter
55:46
you're going to walk away you're going to walk away from your position or you're going to try and continue with your bad position i can't walk away
Corey
55:51
away from my position i literally said i don't know where i land on this
Carter
55:54
this your position was fucking hell
Carter
55:56
oh no you're trying i don't know i don't know how i feel about this because it's would you
Zain
56:00
you recommend exactly what you said every
Corey
56:06
and with this one i would suggest perhaps what i'm recommending is that we look at this with a little bit of you
Corey
56:12
you know appropriate nuance and confusion and say that these things are not cut and dry and it's a little bit murky for the reasons that steven said And for the reasons that I said, but we have a bit of a difference here because in most workplaces, your boss is not elected by your colleagues, right? You know, by everybody around because she's a party member. I know they're not elected by caucuses anymore, but you know, it's a little bit different. And then when you give the caucus – now, specifically, it's the House caucus in this case – but the authority to remove the leader, when that's an actual authority that the caucus has given themselves,
Corey
56:45
how are you supposed to use it in theory if you can't have somebody saying, I don't support the leader?
Carter
56:52
What does that power mean? You can do it in private.
Carter
56:55
You can do it in the confines of a caucus. But
Corey
56:58
But you just use it as an example. You can't talk to your colleagues and shit-talk your boss. us
Corey
57:03
was your example yeah
Carter
57:05
yeah in certain circumstances you know you get
Corey
57:09
get to do a
Carter
57:11
now you get to do a 360 review which zane and i are currently doing on you right we get to do a 360 yeah
Zain
57:17
yeah it's me carter in the audience yeah yeah
Carter
57:19
yeah so we're gonna do a 360 review on you and your performance and that's part of our yearly evaluation program for you i
Corey
57:25
i don't think that's fair the audience reports to me and i don't think that it's right that they
Carter
57:28
they get four of them can I can call you again this week and tell them how wrong I was, you know, tell you how wrong I was.
Zain
57:36
Where does O2, anything else to close out where O2 goes from here? Anyone want to add anything to that before I jump to the Trudeau and inflation? Straight
Carter
57:42
Straight to the prime minister's job.
Zain
57:45
Oh, well, let's just start there. Carter, let's talk about Trudeau and inflation. Do you feel like, let's just start here from a question of perhaps prognostication. Do you feel like recent inflation woes will make itself into speech from the throne and some of those elements? You know, Trudeau has been running a very sort of spend,
Zain
58:05
spend, let's recover, let's cover better, big public programs, like the New Deal style narrative. Do you think inflation finds itself as a centerpiece in the speech from the throne? And then we'll talk about it as a political issue.
Carter
58:17
I don't think it does. I think that inflation at this stage is, you
Carter
58:22
know, when do people feel inflation? And I think that inflation is actually felt in what we do to cure inflation. Like there's hyperinflation that we're trying to avoid, right? And that's really devastating.
Carter
58:34
But it's the things that we use to try and control inflation, like interest rates, that people really feel. Like, sure, you'll notice that the gas price is higher. You'll notice, like for us, we're noticing fruits and vegetables are much higher. I suspect that the recent challenge in British Columbia is just going to make all of our fruits and vegetables more expensive. But this happens and we start to feel that pressure. But it's actually interest rates that are the thing that would really are devastating because all of a sudden your mortgage rate goes from – your mortgage goes from $1,000 or $1,500 or if you live in Toronto or Vancouver, a million dollars a month. And then all of a sudden now it's a million five, right? And that's a real, you certainly feel that pressure. So I think that that's a little bit further off. And I'm also not, I'm not, I'm
Carter
59:26
I'm not there yet that people are talking about this the way that the media are talking about it. I don't see it in polling as yet. And I don't think it's going to jump above things like COVID, healthcare, education, you know, our overall health, First Nations. I don't think that we're there yet.
Zain
59:44
Corey, it's definitely not in his message box, but he clearly is the prime minister. Is this something he needs to lean into early? And would you recommend he'd lean into it early, perhaps even with the speech from the throne coming on Tuesday? day well
Corey
59:55
well i don't think you're going to specifically talk about inflation for a section of the speech from the throne if if he does that would be a bit baffling to me i do believe that
Corey
1:00:05
you're going to see an awful lot about affordability though
Corey
1:00:08
right because that's a way to talk about the issue without conceding the issue you don't necessarily need to say inflation is rampant pierre polyev's weird you know wood thing was it
Corey
1:00:18
it wasn't actually accurate at all because the price of wood then plummeted but you know i i think lumber i i'm
Corey
1:00:25
i'm talking about lumber thank god okay not pierre polyev's wood um
Corey
1:00:28
um good episode title done thank
Carter
1:00:30
thank you yeah let's write that down yeah very good yeah
Carter
1:00:33
i think we should just call it wood so
Corey
1:00:37
expect to see some of that and of course affordability has been climbing up in concerns for a while and we did see during the election uh inflation start to to raise up the the the issue register there so i don't think you want want to leave it entirely undefended against but again it's not what you're going to want to spend your time talking about the thing about a speech from the throne right after an election though guys is it's written it's done it's your platform it's simple and if you're going to add a little bit more to deal with current events that's fine but it's not one of those things you need to think really hard about you ran on your speech from the throne yeah
Zain
1:01:13
yeah and so on the final question on on Trudeau and inflation, because I sense from both of you that you feel like it may not be as big of a deal. Trudeau should address it, as Corey said. Is there any big strategic moves he needs to think about? You know, one of the conversations that seems to be coming up, especially around the media class, to your point, Carter, where this is perhaps more popular, is does Trudeau need some plans for the winter around gas prices? Does he need to do anything programmatic to even, I guess, for many, acknowledge that this is real, that monetary policy, something he was derided for the election that's saying that he doesn't think about is real it's affecting cost of living it's affecting affordability cory anything you want to jump in on that before we kind of round it out there and then card i'll come to you well
Corey
1:01:55
well so i don't entirely like i said affordability is up there inflation is climbing i think inflation is a sleeper issue here and i think it's an anxiety that people hold and it didn't take much to scratch that itch because ultimately affordability
Corey
1:02:10
affordability which has been growing as a concern for a while that that really does sort of land
Corey
1:02:15
land next to inflation anyhow. And if the conservatives can make people
Corey
1:02:19
people feel that part of the reason life is getting less affordable is because the conservatives are letting or the liberals are letting inflation run rampant, then all the better for them, right? And it's not a bad issue for the conservatives. That's definitely my sense at this moment here. Should he do something about it? Should he do targeted things about it? Well, look, as you were saying, I think gas prices over the winter or as you were hinting at it's
Corey
1:02:43
it's very likely gas prices are going to go way up over the winter if you haven't locked in yet folks consider locking in if you're on a floating rate plan same with electricity here and some of that is just correcting against what have been historical lows like really low lows part of why we're talking about alberta all of a sudden looking at a different economic situation is that some of those commodities are going to increase people are going to point to it and they're going to say oh my god 100 inflation 100
Corey
1:03:07
100 inflation ignoring that's only a small part of the basket similarly i do think that if the bank of canada increases rates and we're renewing our mortgage i mean actually
Corey
1:03:17
actually you would have had to have some pretty wild and awesome timing even if you go up by you know two rate increases let's
Corey
1:03:24
let's put it this way it'll be lower than my last locked-in mortgage so like i'm not too too concerned about that but there are are going to be these things that people will point to, and they'll be able to say that's up way, way big. And so start thinking as a government, whether you have any policy levers to pull on that one. But the reality is, I don't think you have a ton.
Zain
1:03:41
Carter, anything to respond to as we round out the segment on policy levers on inflation, or how Trudeau should consider responding programmatically or even messaging wise? We
Carter
1:03:49
We went through something very similar in the Redford government in 2011-2012, when we had electricity rates just going through the roof. And those electricity rates were a significant problem. We also were having brownouts, major, major electricity issues. And we punted. We froze the rates through legislation in order to keep us from having to deal with this massive increase that was occurring and this uncertainty that was occurring from not having the supply that was required to meet the demand.
Carter
1:04:23
That's because we were facing election in the next six months. Justin Trudeau doesn't need to face election, one imagines. The difficulty is, would this cause the government to fall? And I don't think that he's at any real risk of that in the next six months, and possibly even a year. So I think he's got time. And I think and therefore, I don't think he's going to need to take any drastic actions this winter. But heading into next winter, if this is still an issue, I could see him taking more of an action.
Zain
1:04:55
Let's leave that segment there, move it on to our over, under, and our lightning round. Stephen Carter, I'm starting with you. I always start with you. Give me a letter grade for Jason Kenney this weekend.
Carter
1:05:04
He did about 85%. I was pretty impressed. You know, he missed on the first day a little bit. That's where the 15% comes off. And then I probably should dock him down a few more points from saying he's going to get 90 to 95%. But that'll come in April when he loses the leadership review.
Zain
1:05:21
Corey, give me the letter grade for Jason Kenney on the weekend.
Zain
1:05:24
I'll give him a W.
Zain
1:05:27
A W for WD-40?
Corey
1:05:30
Could be WD-40, could be win, could be withdraw. You take your pick.
Zain
1:05:33
Okay, sounds great. Corey, back to you. A letter grade for the Rebels this weekend.
Corey
1:05:38
I'm going to give them a W.
Zain
1:05:40
Is that the W in WD-40?
Corey
1:05:43
Well, it could be WD-40, could be win, could be withdraw. It's your pick. Carter, what
Zain
1:05:48
what would you give the Rebels this weekend? it. I've
Carter
1:05:49
I've never been a real big fan of Ezra Levant, so I don't think I can really say very much about it. I think it's not a great news site.
Zain
1:05:56
Carter, overrated, underrated, the speech from... Actually, no. This speech from the throne. It's been telegraphed in the election, big government programming.
Zain
1:06:04
Overrated or underrated in your mind?
Carter
1:06:06
Overrated. I think that it'll get a lot of attention for three days, and then it'll be all over.
Zain
1:06:12
Corey, this speech from the throne, overrated, underrated?
Corey
1:06:16
Overrated. And we've already read it. It was the platform the Liberals put out.
Zain
1:06:21
Corey, we're actually not seeing any mandate letters thus far from Justin Trudeau for his cabinet ministers. Many ministers, a few new ministries being created, many new ministers, a lot of speculation as to why it's late. Liberals even outpacing their own record from 2019 in terms of delay between announcement of cabinet and releasing the mandate letters. In your mind, mandate letters, overrated or underrated?
Corey
1:06:46
Underrated. I love mandate letters. I love them more when they're actual mandate letters and not just political communications vehicles. But if you are a prime minister who believes in like a cabinet that has given the autonomy to resolve its challenges the way it sees fit, mandate letters are cool. I want you to find a way to make this cheaper. I want you to find a way to make this better. I'm going to measure you based on whether you can bring, you know, our productivity rate up to X or whatever it is, and then just send them off.
Corey
1:07:14
I think that's a great way to do government. And I think that if they were taken more seriously and then as citizens, we looked at them and said, how would they do? Like
Corey
1:07:23
I think they're a great accountability mechanism. And I think that more places should have mandate letters, frankly, not just
Zain
1:07:31
Carter, mandate letters overrated, underrated?
Carter
1:07:33
I just wish I could live in the world with the bright pink sky that Corey lives in. I mean, that's just not the reality. reality. The mandate letters are overrated because they go out and they're not actually giving a mandate to a cabinet minister. They're basically saying, do these things. Check in with me every three days. Don't do anything I wouldn't do because I'm actually your cabinet minister. That's the centralization of power in the first minister's offices across the country. And I would much rather that they be the vehicle that Corey's describing. I just don't know how they they actually are.
Zain
1:08:08
On that front, maybe I'll end off with this, Carter, starting with you. Overrated or underrated, the delay in the mandate letters and the appointment of parliamentary secretaries. Many expected these, you know, functional pieces ahead of time prior to the speech from the throne. Overrated or underrated, the delay for both?
Carter
1:08:25
I think overrated. I mean, ultimately, I think this is the prime minister's office is just as tired and isn't moving as fast as it should be. You come in when you're when you're new, you've got vim and vigor. And then And when you're, you know, year six and seven, you're probably pretty exhausted.
Zain
1:08:40
Corey, overrated or underrated, the delay in both the parliamentary secretaries as well as the mandate letters for Trudeau heading into parliament resuming tomorrow, Monday.
Corey
1:08:49
Underrated. This government is tired and isn't moving as fast as it should be. They're in year six and seven and they don't have the vim and vigor they used to.
Zain
1:08:58
Yeah. And they're getting lazy. They're repeating lines. They're
Carter
1:09:01
They're repeating lines. Yeah. They're taking other people's blocking points. Yeah,
Corey
1:09:06
lines. They're taking other people's talking points. I'd recommend exactly
Corey
1:09:09
exactly what I said earlier. That's
Zain
1:09:10
That's a wrap on episode 953 of The Strategist. My name is Zane. Is this 953?
Zain
1:09:14
With me, as always, Corey Hogan, Stephen Carter. We'll see you next time.
Zain
1:09:23
Does it matter if it's 953?
Corey
1:09:25
It doesn't really matter. No,
Zain
1:09:26
We're going to call it 30, just like a delta. That'll do it.