Transcript
Zain
0:03
This is strategist episode 950. My name is Zain Velji with me as always Corey Hogan and still here Stephen Carter. What's going on guys? It's
Carter
0:11
It's a big day for me. Can we do a quiz? Can we like test the audience on our most recent text on the strategist text line? like who said the
Zain
0:21
the one-way medium who said
Carter
0:22
said who said the following the following quote what
Carter
0:26
what an utter piece of shit which strategist said that in in our chat the most which one of the three of us uttered the phrase what an utter piece of shit in
Carter
0:37
in the last text that
Carter
0:38
that you could win a prize you
Carter
0:41
you could not have lunch
Corey
0:42
it was me i was i was talking about zane being 10 minutes late and i stand by it he
Carter
0:48
was later than that we were both on the chat chat waiting when
Zain
0:51
when i say 10 i mean 12 um carter you're doing good i know you took uh you took some vacation time a couple weeks into the job um you had a good vacation i know you were headed down to um to a place in uh in texas and maybe we'll just start here uh with the headlines our first headline comes to us from From Forbes, QAnon believers gather in Dallas awaiting return of long-dead JFK Jr. Carter, how was your vacation? Did you see JFK? I
Carter
1:17
I did not see JFK. I saw, you know, it was good. It was nice to go down and see all the people that I hadn't seen for a while. You know, it's been hard for us to get together. But Billy Bob from Alabama was my personal favorite this time. He knows all the best barbecue restaurants. So I just hung out with him and we had some great food. Texas barbecue is very different than any other type of barbecue. It's
Corey
1:40
It's good. At those kind of conferences, you've
Carter
1:42
you've got to find
Carter
1:42
buddy. You've got to find someone who knows the restaurants, and that's what we do. I've
Zain
1:45
I've heard from many that this particular gathering has early 2007 South by Southwest vibes. Something's
Corey
1:53
Something's about to happen.
Zain
1:54
happen. Things are about to blow up. You never know. You might be standing next to the next Zuckerberg. Corey, but just to fill in the audience, QAnon supporters have reportedly gathered in Dallas, Texas. Well, they did in anticipation of the return of JFK Jr., who they believe was going to announce 2024 presidential run for Donald Trump. Of course, JFK has been dead for 22 years. And this is, of course, the latest claim from the QAnon movement that believes that the world is run by a cabal of Satan-worshipping pedophiles. Corey, your thoughts on the gathering in Dallas, Texas? taxes i
Corey
2:33
how did they find out about the cabal who told them yeah
Zain
2:38
is that a question for carter carter it's for you listen
Carter
2:40
listen uh pizza place
Carter
2:43
place was a totally legit cover and uh you know the fact that it didn't have a basement but we were still located there is what makes it great the same thing happened to jason kenney uh when he stayed in his mom's basement um but you didn't have one anyways those things all work out wow
Zain
2:59
wow i don't like those parallels
Corey
3:00
parallels just keep moving
Zain
3:01
moving yeah very interesting some interesting deep cuts this one comes to us from cnbc our next headline meta share spike but it's a canadian materials company not the rebranded facebook that is right a small canadian materials company named meta materials uh had its share spike uh by a significant significant amounts due to a lot of people that were trigger-happy trying to buy into Facebook. Apparently, they bought into the Canadian Materials Company. Stephen Carter, you are, of course, a fan of meme stocks. You're a big GameStop fan. To the moon, as you have said often on this podcast. Did you understand any of the references I just threw out there for you?
Carter
3:42
Listen, I had bought Meta early, anticipating that they would be renaming, and I sold at the the height. So, I mean, I'm not saying I got Corey Hogan money, but things worked out pretty well for me.
Zain
3:56
Corey, the stock was up 25% at the end of trading on its first day. What do you think?
Corey
4:02
Famous efficiency of the market. I'm not too worried about it. I think that's fantastic. You
Zain
4:06
You think the markets are the economy. You've said this often on the show.
Corey
4:10
I would say that when your entire company name is about kind of meta-analysis, and then you have have this very meta experience of another company gathering the
Corey
4:22
gains i just i don't know i love life society's awesome everything's working great let's just keep uh celebrating it and move on speaking
Zain
4:29
speaking of working great uh here is probably my favorite headline i have read in the last six months this one comes to us from ctv news ontario man says he found rocks in president's choice frozen berries carter and was offered 300 in points if he kept quiet that's right an ontario man who says there are rocks in his frozen president's choice berries and he was offered 300 in compensations to shut the fuck up about it uh the resident of oshawa said that he and his wife were preparing smoothies for their children last month when they found several foreign objects in one of their children's bowls they were then offered 300 not in cash but at a pc optimum point points uh to not say anything uh cory it seems like uh safe to say uh he did not redeem the points well
Corey
5:20
well first of all those points are better than cash yeah because with the low low prices at president's choice brands i you've got nothing to lose by taking the points instead you're going to use it you're going to buy bread that was uh priced too highly these things are just going to happen it's just you know it's fine it's great second of all where do people think berries come come from? Fields. Fields full of rocks. You know what we call that? We call that organic. You owe them 300 president's choice points, in my opinion. Oh,
Zain
5:48
Oh, it's very cogent logic. Stephen Carter, this man finding a rock in his president's choice blueberries, frozen blueberries, of course, frozen in government subsidized freezers. We're a lot of deep cuts on this show already. But Stephen Carter, over to you.
Carter
6:03
I found some rocks in my berries, and it ultimately cost me $300 to have them removed so it was also very painful um but i've recovered now and the surgeon says it's probably going to be okay i
Corey
6:17
don't like that one either let's just keep moving jesus christ
Zain
6:22
thought that was pretty funny why
Zain
6:24
why don't you let's do because let's do our new segment deconstructing carter's inappropriate jokes
Zain
6:33
uh just let me also take this moment to say carter why are you still here i
Carter
6:39
i have nothing else to do thursday nights you know can't fill the time it's
Corey
6:44
it's true ever since friends went off the air yeah
Carter
6:46
yeah i mean there's really nothing i mean
Zain
6:49
uh cory can i actually ask you about the calm strategy behind this about yeah
Corey
6:53
yeah i mean friends didn't really need much of a calm strategy it basically sold itself what you
Carter
6:57
you really wanted to do is have a good show on the in and a good show on the out right like that's true
Corey
7:01
true i mean this was the must-see tv formula for a long time you had seinfeld uh you remember and there's shows Shows that we just know that are of mediocre quality in between Just Shoot Me, I believe, was
Carter
7:10
was on for a while there. I think it's terrible.
Corey
7:13
And then you would have Friends.
Carter
7:15
Alan McBeal was on opposite it.
Carter
7:17
So what do you do? Is that the bat
Zain
7:20
bat phone? Can you answer that on the call? Yeah, please answer it. Just answer it. I hope it's your boss. I hope she's asking you why you continue to do podcasts. It
Carter
7:28
It might be my boss. She's calling about the berries comment. No,
Carter
7:35
I've texted back. We're okay. We're okay now. Yeah,
Zain
7:39
That's a power move. And they say that
Zain
7:42
the chief of staff has no authority. Chief
Carter
7:45
staff has a lot of authority. You can just say to the principal, just call me later, please.
Zain
7:52
So, Corey, no, I appreciate you doubling down on giving me insight on the Friends marketing strategy. Of course, five white people on a couch was...
Zain
8:02
It's all about the sexual tension, really.
Carter
8:03
was the sexual tension that i think really sold the show who was going to sleep with who next
Carter
8:09
right like i don't think that was the well
Carter
8:11
well i don't think that premise it really could have been called sex partners i think
Corey
8:14
i mean there were six characters on the show why did you say five
Corey
8:19
which one doesn't count to you huh which
Zain
8:21
which one doesn't did
Zain
8:22
i say five no
Zain
8:23
no one said five i've never seen friends in my life i mean at some point five
Zain
8:28
five white people six white people just It's just like, whatever, it's just a bunch. It's like zebras together. It's just a cackle of you guys who are just sitting on a couch together at a coffee shop. I don't know. They're
Carter
8:39
They're five, they're six, they're ten. They had to add White Gunter. They needed to go one more. He just died recently.
Corey
8:46
know, he died last week.
Zain
8:48
shouldn't Brand be offering PC Optimum points in silence to be offering compensation for you not saying anything?
Corey
8:59
mean with hindsight ross was a very problematic so
Carter
9:01
so i think ross
Carter
9:02
ultimately he was uh he was her harasser really i mean almost absolutely anger
Corey
9:06
anger issues and and got her to give up this dream but
Corey
9:10
but when you meet the parents
Carter
9:11
parents i mean really it starts to come close you know like you start to understand right
Corey
9:17
does make a lot of sense i mean in universe but it doesn't really explain why this woman would continue to to to he was the
Carter
9:24
the one that really should have been the incel you
Corey
9:29
know chandler made a lot of gay panic jokes too yeah
Carter
9:31
yeah he really did the
Corey
9:32
the show hasn't actually
Carter
9:33
actually aged as well as we think it has that well yeah
Zain
9:38
carter do you want to talk to me about your surgery a bit more just something less excruciating thank you
Corey
9:46
bruce willis had an arc on the show yeah
Carter
9:50
was a good one yeah
Corey
9:53
yeah and you you know who else uh
Corey
9:55
uh uh what's his name the guy who plays ant-man oh
Corey
9:59
i forget paul rudd yeah
Corey
10:02
but he wasn't handsome didn't
Corey
10:04
got more handsome as he age paul rudd married one of the characters he basically became the seventh white person yeah that's
Zain
10:10
that's right uh didn't uh didn't heisenberg also have a role who's
Zain
10:18
Making Bad. What the fuck?
Corey
10:20
Is that a show that was on Thursday nights on NBC in the 90s? It's
Carter
10:24
like, Jesus, Zane, try and keep us on
Zain
10:25
on topic. Let's move on to our next headline. Our next headline comes to us from the CBC. Let's spend some time on this. Clearly, Air Canada CEO apologizes, commits to learning French as backlash in Quebec grows. Corey, Air Canada CEO Michael Rousseau has apologized and committed to improving his French amid heavy backlash by federal and Quebec officials who called his recent comments about not needing to speak French despite having lived in Montreal for 14 years shocking and disrespectful. He said, quote, I want to clarify that I did not in any way mean to disrespect Quebecers and Francophones across the country. I apologize for those who were offended by my words. He
Zain
11:03
He officially said that today I'm committed to improving my French, the official language of Canada, the language he used in quebec cory this was all part of his kind of 26 minutes speech that he delivered in montreal he spoke french for about 20 seconds of it uh he got some questions from the media afterwards of course uh the media in this case were part of our flare airlines school of journalism uh graduates so congratulations to them uh they asked him about his lack of french and he said i don't need to learn french i got along in montreal just fine is this overblown is this like pandering to quebec heck, is this like a crazy story? Or is this legitimate in your mind when you see it from Air Canada? And then we'll talk about the communications sort of ramifications and how they dealt with it.
Corey
11:48
think it's all of the above. And it really depends on your lens. There's a lot of characters here who acted in what let's call it a suboptimal fashion. And let's start with Rousseau. How you live in Montreal for 14 years and not understand that your comments would would be taken
Corey
12:03
taken in a very dim light is just absolutely beyond me. The city of Montreal is perpetually in conversation as to whether there's too much English. It's been going on my entire life. And to say that you've lived there for 14 years, well, it sounds like maybe your house was there. It doesn't sound like you actually lived there, if that's how little insight you have into the city of Montreal and the psyche of Montreal. Air Canada itself is a a very weird organization, because Air Canada was a crown corporation at one point, and there are still these vestiges of government control on Air Canada. The Official Languages Act applies to it. So yet another reason why you probably should have known better than to step into it here. But also, it creates a very weird dynamic, because other airlines don't have that consideration. You'll remember, well, maybe you won't, but when WestJet began, there
Corey
12:54
there was a thing, like none of of the flight attendants really knew how to speak french so but of course you've still got the regulations to give this guidelines in french so they would just play a tape at a certain point do you remember that and
Corey
13:05
and uh you know ultimately they managed to get past that and part of the reason they did was sort of uh cultural sensitivities and understanding of that canadian character and if you're going to play in those markets you have to play
Corey
13:16
play in those markets so really a misunderstanding of a market which is just the biggest sin a business leader can do And so
Corey
13:24
so that's really quite wild.
Corey
13:27
Now, the reaction is equally wild, but the reaction is just sort of so baked into the Canadian psyche. We can expect when there are questions. I mean, we had this with the Governor General. We have this perpetually with signage in Montreal. I think you had to sort of expect it, even if you think, you
Corey
13:46
you know, maybe he's got a point. Maybe in Montreal, it's not that hard to get around without French. But just because you're able to do something doesn't mean it's right to do something. And when you're a leader of an organization that's, you
Corey
14:00
you know, quasi under government control, that is the flag carrier of a bilingual country, maybe don't be so flip about the French language. Carter,
Zain
14:08
Carter, he said something to the extent, and I'm paraphrasing, you know, my schedule is packed. I don't have time to learn French. This was in the initial sort of when he was questioned by the journalist. I don't have time to learn French, and my focus has been on building a healthy company.
Carter
14:22
Is this story overblown in your mind?
Carter
14:24
Not really. I think that there's, I mean, yeah, I mean, sure.
Carter
14:30
He's the CEO. He's not supposed to be just a performer who, you know, learns French just to kind of say that they've learned French, right? But instead, but at
Carter
14:40
at the same time, the tone dictates the response, right? The tone is, hey, there's not enough time for that inconsequential shit. I got to focus on what I need to do to make money, right?
Carter
14:51
right? Right. If he brings an apology to it, if he's if he's showing that he's making his best efforts, then you get some slack cut. Now, it is Montreal and it is Quebec. So there's not a lot of slack cut. You know, the they take the French language very seriously. But I think this goes to Corey's point. How do you live 14 years in Montreal and not know that the culture? I
Carter
15:16
you don't live 14 years in Calgary and say, yeehaw, I'll tell you that.
Carter
15:21
there's trouble there's trouble if you do that so you
Carter
15:25
you you gotta just gotta know where you are and you gotta know how you fit in and he just didn't and doesn't care and that was a slight to the people that he's surrounded by that's
Zain
15:35
is it's yahoo carter cory yeah
Zain
15:39
yeah well yeah the thing to keep in
Corey
15:40
in mind is yeah i fucking know it's yeah exactly
Zain
15:43
exactly my friend i'm telling carter He said yee-haw. No, he said you don't say yee-haw. You don't say yee-haw. Pay
Zain
15:50
I trust me, I was not paying attention. Yeah,
Corey
15:54
There is a substantive concern here that francophones rightly have, which is if you work in Air Canada's offices in Montreal and the CEO gives so few fucks about the French, like you're obviously not using the French language at work if you're trying to get into the executive suite, right? And so there
Corey
16:13
there is also that. And there needs to be an appreciation of that. I mean, just try to put on your hat. Imagine you're sitting in Edmonton. If you're listening to this podcast in Edmonton and imagine there was a CEO who came from Quebec and said, I'm not going to bother learning English.
Corey
16:27
I can get by just fine with French around here. I speak French at the office here. Everybody around me speaks French. Who gives a shit about English?
Corey
16:36
You have to know that wouldn't go over well. It wouldn't go over well culturally around you, and it also wouldn't go over particularly well in your office. So there is some substance here, too. I don't want to make it sound like it's just histrionics. I don't believe it is. I think it's more than an optics challenge that the CEO has because it shows sort of a disregard for the predominant language in the area. But, you know, I do get to this point of how do you not see this backlash coming? Well,
Zain
17:03
Well, Carter, let's talk about like the communication strategy here. If you were prepping a CEO of a company, giving a 30-minute sort of keynote-style speech in Quebec, and you know he's going to speak for 20 seconds, you've helped him prepare the remarks, how would you have armed him to perhaps minimize or blunt the criticism that, of course, he was going to get? And perhaps you may suggest that maybe they were tone-deaf enough to think they weren't going to get the criticism, but let's just maybe blow past that.
Carter
17:31
that. They weren't, because you don't put the 20 seconds of French in if you don't know that you have to speak French, right? Right. Interesting. You don't even bother to put the 20 seconds of French in if you don't think to yourself, you know, we got to do something the way I
Carter
17:41
I would even better
Zain
17:42
better to not speak any French. No,
Carter
17:43
he should have apologized at the beginning of his French segment. He sort of said, you know, I'd say it in French, but I can't speak French. But he should have said, I'm sorry, I don't speak French particularly well. I'm struggling to learn this language as as it is. I think it is important, but this is, you know, let me do my three lines and my 20 seconds worth of French, and then if you'll forgive me, I will revert back now to English so I can stop, you know, destroying the language.
Carter
18:14
You just need to be very aware culturally of where you are, and then afterwards when you're asked the question, you know, are you learning French, I'm trying, I'm struggling, it's not easy for me at my age.
Zain
18:28
Corey, what do you think of Carter's response and what is his strategy in terms of how you would have dealt with this to blunt the criticism?
Corey
18:37
Yeah, I think it's better. I'm not sure it's optimal. I think it needs to be combined with an EVP who's up there who is absolutely fluent and you talking about the importance of the French language in your offices as well and the importance to the city of Montreal and that you are aware of your limitation and you've built around that limitation by elevating this individual who will basically be your… right hand whether you mean it or not um
Corey
19:00
um because there's just no avoiding that initial um you know 30 minute conversation when you happen to be the ceo of air canada so that's
Corey
19:12
you know that's something along that way where you're actually giving a you know more than just a oops my bad but here's some steps i've taken i think would have been recommended by me because there's
Corey
19:21
there's a good opportunity to talk about something i like to talk about when i build communication strategies here, and in particular, when there's an issue that needs to be addressed. And it is that messaging is not mitigation.
Corey
19:34
You can always sort of talk your way around a problem, and you can try to manage an issue with words. And in a way, that's what Stephen was suggesting. I'm not, I think if he was a consultant, he wouldn't suggest exclusively that either. I'm not suggesting otherwise here.
Corey
19:48
But what you really want to do when you're a communications consultant in that context is is really challenge people to say, okay, well, I can make the words better, but what are you going to do to make the underlying problem better?
Corey
20:00
And this goes back to something I've said on this show a lot, which is all problems manifest as communications problems. And if you can fix it upriver, you're going to have a much better time communicating.
Zain
20:10
Carter, do you want to respond to that?
Carter
20:11
No, I think that's exactly right. I mean, I think that this problem doesn't present
Carter
20:16
present itself when you do what Joe Clark did and learn his high river French, right?
Carter
20:21
right? He would always apologize for his high river French, but he learned his goddamn French and he practiced it every day because he knew it was important. And I think that that's where this particular CEO has gone off the rails.
Zain
20:36
Don't speak French like Stephen Carter, neither do we. Join us today, Flair Airlines. Let's move on to our next segment. Our next segment, fine, fabulous or fucked, Carter, we are here. We have got the ultimate scale for you. If you are new to the show, this is very simple. I'm going to run through a series of stories that have been out there, and I'm going to ask Stephen and Corey whether they're fine, fabulous, or fucked for one party, individual, or person that is associated with that story. And Stephen Carter, the best way to start is to start. Brian Jean has indicated that he wants to reenter provincial politics here in Alberta. for jason kenney is
Zain
21:22
is this fabulous or is this fucked
Carter
21:28
think it's fine i
Carter
21:29
i think it's fine i mean i
Carter
21:31
i think that the problem with brian jean is once you get to get no brian jean he's still brian jean so
Carter
21:36
so when he goes away you can almost put some sort of a halo around him and turn him into something that he's not actually but when he's He's actually there speaking
Carter
21:45
speaking in the legislature every day or talking to people about his vision and trying to carry being a leader.
Carter
21:53
People would be reminded of the guy that they saw in 2015, and that guy wasn't much of a leader. So I think it's actually fine for Jason Kenney. I think it'd be actually far worse for Jason to have this the myth of Brian Jean grow into something that, you
Carter
22:14
isn't really Brian Jean, because
Carter
22:16
because Brian's just I
Carter
22:18
don't think he's that strong of a leader. That's my bias. And I think that we'll
Carter
22:23
we'll see whether or not he's able to make it work.
Zain
22:26
Corey Brian Sheen, the former federal conservative MP, the leader of the Wild Rose Party, led that party in 2015, tried to compete for the leadership of the United Conservative Party, lost to Jason Kenney, has been bickering from the sidelines in media columns and open letters to the premier, offering, quote unquote, advice, has been asking for him, at least in the recent past, to step down and is now wanting to run in the by-election in Fort McMurray. with the opening created with the MLA there running as a federal conservative candidate successfully. For Jason Kenney, Brian
Zain
23:03
Brian Jean entering the mix, fine, fabulous, fucked.
Zain
23:09
I think it might even be
Zain
23:11
Lay it on me. I could have gone with
Zain
23:13
with fine, but fabulous? This is going to spin you up.
Zain
23:16
I'm on the edge
Carter
23:16
edge of my seat.
Corey
23:18
Well, let's start with Jason Kenney's in a very bad situation right now.
Corey
23:23
Right. So I'm not saying that it's a good idea when, you know, I'm not looking at like kind of a totally neutral grounds. I'm just a generic politician. I have somebody running against my leadership. I'm saying relative to where Jason Kenney was the day before Brian Jean did this. This is fabulous for Jason Kenney.
Corey
23:39
this allows you to reframe so much of what has already happened as just brian gene trying to pull strings not being committed to unity not being able to get past the contest he lost trying to destroy the party you get to take all of your errors from the past couple of years and rather than being able to or just having some sort of like vague external enemies you can point to somebody who so clearly has now outed themselves as working against you in this context and it also provides a clear alternative on the leadership review that many people will not like many people will not like it's no longer do you like Jason Kenney yes or no it is do you want Jason Kenney or Brian Jean and
Corey
24:19
that might be a better question for Jason Kenney and so this affords him an opportunity to just redefine all of the fights that he's had he can kind of take out the trash his fights with Lila here while Lila supported Brian Jean and look what Brian Jean is doing today the problems he's had with the right wing of his caucus well a lot of those people supported brian gene and look at them today and folks we are never going to be able to move forward as a caucus or as a province until we can get together on these things because otherwise those radical socialists blah blah blah all of the stuff that you would imagine to see this gives him the absolute best
Corey
24:55
best platform he could hope for at a moment like this when people are writing long form pieces about his his days being numbered.
Corey
25:01
Now there's an enemy.
Zain
25:03
That's fascinating. Do you, I need to ask you, conviction-wise, do you believe that? Or do you see, do you see it fabulous without Jason Kenney leaning into that strategy? Or would he have to lean in to that message? And I guess the extension of that question for both of you is, should Jason Kenney sign Brian Jean's nomination papers to officially become a UCP candidate? He absolutely should not.
Corey
25:29
interesting. Corey, go first, Carter. Oh, oh my God. No, because you say he's trying to destroy the party. I'm not going to support this. If you have a problem with it, if you want to destroy this party, vote against me at this leadership. Keep
Carter
25:40
Keep your enemies closer. Learn from Brian Mulroney. Bring in Joe Clark. Make sure that they're not there. Make sure you learn, keep, you've got to keep these people close to you. You can't have them organizing outside because as much as they may be a giant pain in your your ass inside the party he will organize an outside party as well and you can't split off because the loss rurally could even be worse you could be seeing a an 86 seat sweep for the ndp if if all of a sudden the rural the rural party led by brian jean swaps off 10 he
Corey
26:12
tries to do that he just reinforces that narrative i've just built about he's trying to destroy this party doesn't care about unity doesn't care about the new party
Carter
26:18
party but that's only after he's dead because you let You led it. You led it to the death, to its death, Corey Hogan, playing the role of Jason Kenney.
Zain
26:29
Let me go back to conviction. How can, like, the conviction you have to say absolutely not, you mean that, hey? Like, there's no, like, if you are Kenny, you're not even considering this. If you're advising Kenny right now, I'm talking to Corey for a second.
Carter
26:42
No, but I think we need to emphasize that Corey and I always say 100% conviction. We've never, ever, we've
Carter
26:49
exaggerated on this show. Joe, this show has never had hyperbole. It is always 100% conviction from both of us. So you're telling
Zain
26:56
telling me you've never made up for a lack of content with unbridled enthusiasm?
Zain
27:01
Corey, you were asked
Zain
27:04
I'm kind of curious. Would you leave any opening for Kenny to decide yes, or would your advice be 100%
Zain
27:10
% sure this is what you need to do? Absolutely fucking not. It's
Corey
27:11
It's party politics, and this guy wants to destroy the party. Listen, I support the grassroots of this political party. I do not support people trying to tear the grassroots roots out of the ground and spread them to the wind as the new democrats take over again this
Carter
27:24
this party is about are you sold at all are you sold at all no he's wrong he couldn't be more wrong um this this party is stronger than me it is stronger than brian jean it will continue beyond me it will continue beyond brian jean we have to allow democracy at the grassroots i said that when i was running for leader i said i i'm now the premier and i mean it and
Carter
27:44
and i will bring this guy eye into my caucus. And I will remind you that I am 10 times the leader that he is. And I'm going to put him right beside me every day in question period and make him take some heaters and see how he does.
Zain
27:58
Corey, what do you think of that grassroots argument? It seems like it's a compelling one to me.
Zain
28:02
No. If Brian Jean wants to challenge
Corey
28:04
challenge my leadership, if Brian Jean believes that he speaks for the
Corey
28:09
the grassroots of this party, well, then he can fucking take the grassroots and ask them to vote against me at this leadership review this is this is just warfare by subterfuge this is absolutely wrong uh this is going to destroy the ucp and and nobody should tolerate it so you've got a stark choice come april do you want brian jean and this personal politics that like again it allows you to reframe everything that happened in the past as brian jean has just been fucking about to try to get his moment to come back and refight the fight that he he lost.
Zain
28:45
Carter, it's much to unpack here, but let's actually leave this bracket open for a second on some of the other strategic questions. And I want to ask you, what do you think the premier does? Do you think he signs the papers or not? What do you think he's going to do?
Carter
28:58
He's not going to sign the papers.
Carter
29:00
I used to think he was a good political strategist, but what seems to be happening is he's listening to the podcast and he's listening to Corey all all the time it's very upsetting for me um because obviously hello
Carter
29:13
i'm the strategist that people should be listening to and bringing this enemy in is exactly what he should be doing but he won't sign the papers because he's embattled and he's scared and and the problem is that leadership can never come from a position of fear gory
Corey
29:28
gory will he sign the papers he
Corey
29:29
shouldn't it's it's utter horseshit name me a political leader anywhere that would sign the papers of somebody actively campaigning against them you
Carter
29:36
you know i mean
Corey
29:38
weakness it's lunacy cretchen
Carter
29:45
win already like right like it's over that's not bad pretty good
Zain
29:48
good pretty good i'd say high profile examples i don't know i'm just gonna go out and live i feel like that martin martin
Corey
29:54
martin was never actively calling for cretchen to step down okay uh he did
Corey
29:59
did jim would not
Corey
30:00
not have signed ralph
Carter
30:01
ralph Ralph Klein, Jim Dinning.
Carter
30:04
many players. You want me to go
Corey
30:06
go on more? No, no. Every example you're giving me is in the background. Ed Stelmack.
Corey
30:10
example still involves them smiling in the same room together, Stephen. This is a different example. This is Brian G.
Carter
30:17
What's Allison Redford and every one of her MLAs?
Zain
30:24
You mean she would have had one candidate? She would have had one candidate running for her? Every single one of them. She
Zain
30:30
their papers. I forgot who that guy was, but the one guy that supported her. Art
Carter
30:34
Art Johnson. He lost his nomination.
Carter
30:37
He was so good. He's
Carter
30:38
He's so good. He lost his nomination during
Carter
30:41
during the leadership. Listen
Corey
30:42
Listen up. You know there's a difference between that kind of backroom
Corey
30:47
bullshit and this open warfare.
Carter
30:49
This is the exact same.
Zain
30:54
Talk to me about the open warfare. for cory is it also a brand perspective that it makes kenny look weak that like he's welcoming in someone who explicitly wants him gone i
Zain
31:05
don't even know how to answer
Corey
31:05
answer that question of course
Corey
31:07
i do it looks suicidal it looks like
Zain
31:10
maybe the question is to carter carter how how do you how do you how
Carter
31:15
you defend against that you have to present strength by signing the papers and bringing him into the fold when
Corey
31:20
when the fuck is strong about that what
Carter
31:21
what is strong about that i'm not afraid of him i
Carter
31:24
will lead my way out of this i'm
Carter
31:26
afraid i'm not afraid of the guy
Corey
31:27
guy happy to have somebody who wants to knife me in my car listen
Corey
31:30
he wants just fucking dumb if
Carter
31:32
if he wants to knife me everybody in the fucking caucus has been knifing him 17 people fucking signed a piece of paper that said this is stupid to protect us from you know coronavirus why would we want that kind of protection 17 people two of them got removed from caucus 15 of them are still there
Zain
31:50
Okay, so Phoebe's the one I forgot.
Carter
31:52
Phoebe's the one you forgot, yeah.
Zain
31:57
that's what you call a callback. That's nice. Yeah, you're welcome. Corey, there's so much stuff. I'd actually unpack it from a strategy perspective. I actually really think you're framing for the leadership review for Kenny is actually advantageous. It's not Kenny versus some sort of like messiahic sort of person that could show up. It's like this guy. Okay. Now, if I'm in the caucus then, right, let's start here with this question. Or if I've got leadership potential, am I trying to do anything now that Gene is, you know, not denying that leadership is on his mind? He's even said in some of these early interviews that if Albertans would have me, I'd love to do the job. Clearly, you're looking at this guy implicitly and explicitly for the top job if he enters the fray. Ray, suppose I'm sitting in that caucus right now, there's a leadership review, and then the guy that might be the heir apparent, or at least the first to throw his hat in the ring to replace him, what moves do I think I need to make in the interim between now and leadership review to maybe muddle the question of what that leadership review might be about a bit?
Corey
32:58
Well, again, I think it becomes you trying to grab back the narrative as to what exactly has happened over the last bit and say this is just this is basically the smoking gun that most of our problems here have been because some people aren't interested in us being a united conservative party some people weren't willing to accept the results of the leadership contest that we had and um and you know we are we are being eaten from within and so if that does not interest If you want a political party that is about unity in the face of a new democratic opposition, well, then I'm your choice. Otherwise, you get Brian Jean. And if it's about Brian Jean, it's about Brian Jean. I think that one of the things that will be very interesting to see over the next bit is if Jason Kenney takes this moment, all of this that has occurred, and uses it as an opportunity to bluntly
Corey
33:54
bluntly purge some people, like I hear, and say, well, I can see what this is all fucking about, right? And try to unify the caucus against a threat from within. it.
Zain
34:04
Carter, if I'm a leadership contender within the UCP caucus, I want Kenney gone. I need him gone in order to become premier, in order to run and carry the flag for the UCP. What am I trying to do between now and then, now that Gene has tacitly announced his intention?
Carter
34:21
Well, I mean, I think that Corey's made it all too simple, right? Because it's not one person trying to get rid of Jason Kenney. There are factions of people trying to get rid of Jason Kenney. Jason Jason Kenney's under attack from all sides, and what this does is if Corey goes through with his Brian Jean is my enemy strategy, that points the finger all at one person, and you're relatively clean now. So you can still plot
Carter
34:46
plot to get rid of him and now just blame the mercenaries from the Brian Jean camp.
Carter
34:52
This is part of Jason Kenney's problem. He's not facing a single enemy. He's facing enemies on all fronts. And it's just very difficult to imagine Jason Kenney surviving that kind of onslaught. I think the best way to do it is to pull his enemies in and to show his caucus and his people that the only person who can lead this shit show is Jason Kenney in kind of the way that the only person who could lead the Conservative Party federally was Stephen Harper.
Corey
35:25
Brian Jean's not the only person who can threaten the party will break in two under somebody's leadership, right? And Jason Kenney should work hard to wrestle the idea of, I
Corey
35:36
I don't just represent the united Conservative Party, I fucking united this party. And there are people who have never been that excited about that. One of them is Brian Jean. And if he takes over this leadership, it all falls apart and none of us see government again. And I think if you make it about the project, and
Corey
35:53
and you as the personification of the project, let me be super clear here. And I started it off by saying it, but I think it bears repeating, because we've been talking this for a while.
Corey
36:03
Jason Kenney's in a bad situation. He is on course to lose a leadership review at this moment. The strategy I'm suggesting, he could lose the leadership review still. But I think that this version, I am, you know, Unity versus Brian Jean is
Corey
36:19
a better shot for him than what he's got right now. And this is why I'm saying this is fabulous. Not because I think that it is the great odds and he's going to win a leadership review 90-10 under this strategy, but this offers him a window that he did not have before.
Zain
36:34
go on Team Hogan for a second, right?
Zain
36:36
right? It's cold and dirty
Zain
36:40
Let's just say that you're working for Kenny.
Carter
36:43
Oh, that's even more cold and dirty.
Zain
36:46
He's agreed to the advice. You know what? I'm not signing these papers. I agree with Corey's strategy. I need to try to leverage this unity narrative, build upon what you've heard from Corey. Is there anything else he should be thinking about or doing as related to how he can position Gene as a disruptor of the negative variety to the fragile thing we've all built together?
Carter
37:09
Well, let's keep in mind that this doesn't end on this play, right? He doesn't sign the, you know, if he doesn't sign the papers, he's now got to win the by-election because Brian Jean's going to run in the by-election. And Brian Jean is highly likely to win that by-election. So what he needs to do is if he's not going to sign the papers, he needs to make sure he's lining up the absolute A-team of campaigners and an absolute all-star candidate. Finding that all-star candidate, someone who represents the United Conservative Party, like the PCs and or the Wild Rose, who's going to stand in the face of Brian Jean and say, you know what, Brian, we couldn't win when you were the leader.
Carter
37:50
We remember that. We won when Jason Kenney was the leader. He's been hit by a pandemic and insurrections from the likes of you.
Carter
37:58
And that's why I have to beat you in this by-election, because
Carter
38:01
because we shouldn't allow the the United Conservative Movement, to be undone by
Carter
38:05
by just a simple cruel twist of fate.
Carter
38:08
And that cruel twist of fate is coronavirus and the small-mindedness of people like Brian Jean.
Zain
38:14
Corey, yes, I add to that. What are you doing if Carter's saying we need to find our version of an all-star up there to run? What are you thinking?
Corey
38:23
Jason Kenney and the UCP don't need to win in that scenario. Their actual best-case scenario might be an NDP win coming up the middle because of a vote split between the
Corey
38:31
the UCP and Brian Jean. I mean, that becomes the example of exactly what you're saying about unity and the risks of losing unity at that point. So that's where you're
Corey
38:45
you're maybe not hurting. Maybe you didn't work for the NDP.
Corey
38:48
That's what I'm saying. Let's
Zain
38:51
Let's go down two pathways then here and let's flip the script to Brian Jean. You're working for Brian Jean. Two scenarios. scenarios kenny signs your papers kenny doesn't sign your papers let's talk about kenny signing your papers um obviously
Zain
39:05
obviously you gotta win um
Zain
39:07
um are you running a fort mcmurray campaign are you running a kenny campaign are you running an anti-naughtly campaign tell me about what your campaign looks like if kenny says welcome aboard the stephen carter strategy welcome aboard you want to knife Fife me, what
Zain
39:24
what sort of campaign are you running and what sort of things are you prepping or stress testing for? This is one of the races, this is not the race that you're looking to run, so to speak.
Carter
39:35
This is the federal liberal campaign in Alberta.
Carter
39:37
It's no Trudeau, no leader. There is no leader of the federal campaign, right? That's what every liberal does in Alberta. They forget about Trudeau unless they think they can be elevated by him. But everywhere else in the country, it's Team Trudeau. if you're running you what i would do is tell them this is the most ucp of all ucp campaigns we're going to put two ucp logos on every one of our signs we're going to make sure there's ucp logos on on every side we're going to have four-sided brochures with extra bro extra ucp logos we're going to put ucp logos on everything because it is bigger than me brian jean it is bigger than jason kenney it is about having united conservative movement i know what it's like to to lose to a socialist horde because we split the vote between two conservative options. We're not going to let that happen again. I believe in the UCP. I believe in the party. I just don't necessarily believe in this leader,
Carter
40:37
which happens to reflect 80% of our population of Alberta.
Zain
40:41
I'll come back to you. I'll go to you in a second, Corey. Carter, this is not, to be clear, this is not the Brian Jean for leader campaign stress testing itself out in Fort McMurray.
Carter
40:50
No, this is a humble servant of the conservative movement.
Carter
40:54
A humble servant of the conservative movement. Talk
Zain
40:56
Talk to me about the brand. Talk to me about any of the considerations if Jason Kenney signs your papers.
Corey
41:06
I think that you are UCP first and foremost. Think about the strategies that may be – I mean, this is the nature of strategic planning. You've got to think about the moves that your opponents might be doing, too, and how they might be trying to position you. And one of the things that is obviously going to come at Brian Jean, because you're already seeing whisper campaigns about it, is it's all about him. It's not about the movement. So you've got to make it all about the movement, not about him. And I think that that humility that Stephen talked about is exactly what you've got to carry into this, at least in your municipal campaign. And you've got to go around and when you're door knocking, make a bit of a show of like, well, I've always been clear. Like I started by saying, I do not support this leader. I believe in the grassroots. I'm here to vote for you. And if Jason Kenney were to kick me out of the caucus for voting in support of you, so be it. Like, what you get with me is a true blue conservative.
Corey
42:01
And see where that takes you from there. I just find it such an incredible notion. The idea that Jason Kenney might sign his papers is madness to me. Well,
Zain
42:10
Well, Carter, talk to me about this then for a second before we go back to Gene having his papers not be signed and what he does then. Before we get to that, let's talk about Jason Kenney for a second. Can he have his cake and eat it too in some ways? Can he sign the papers for Gene and then also try to defeat him in the nomination in some way? Is that a viable pathway for Jason Kenney? Talk to me about that.
Carter
42:33
I mean, he could. He'll lose though, right? So you mean Kenney's
Zain
42:35
Kenney's candidate will lose? Yeah.
Carter
42:37
Yeah. So whenever you're making that kind of determination, you have to be very careful because you definitely do not want the leader's office to be propping up a candidate that ultimately loses. You need the leader's office to be clear of that type of thing because you
Carter
42:49
you can't show more weakness. So you're either in or you're out. You're either I'm going to sign his leadership paper or his nomination papers or I'm not. And if you're not, you know, if you are, then let's
Carter
43:03
She's if I'm Jason Kenney and I've signed the papers, I'm campaigning in for McMurray with Brian Jean, even if Brian Jean won't be seen with me. I'm meeting people. I'm I'm campaigning for the United Conservative Party under my leadership because we're not going to lose a seat to the socialist hordes.
Zain
43:23
Corey, anything to anything to add on that front of any voting them of
Zain
43:29
to have his cake and eat it, too, with the nomination fight.
Corey
43:33
Well, it's an interesting strategy, right? Because what
Corey
43:37
what happens to Gene then, but it's hard to imagine just given that he's been an MP there and an MLA there and very
Zain
43:43
very popular guy. Yeah, well,
Corey
43:45
well, his roots run deep in Fort McMurray guy lived in a tent while he while the city burned down and he was helping it rebuild. So, so is that really realistic? Like, is that a likely thing to happen? And I guess that's the thing I I'm struggling. And I'm thinking in my head for examples of when leaders signed papers of somebody that they want – I mean wanted to lose, okay, but like was actively against. Yeah.
Corey
44:08
That's tough. I mean because you got to live with the consequences of that. And in fact, in some ways, if Gene gets his papers signed, again,
Corey
44:19
again, I just – like that just blows my mind, even the notion. As I say it, the words seem outrageous given what he's already said. And then goes into a contested nomination with somebody who's pro-Jason Kenney, and he slays that. You've actually made the problem much worse. Made it worse. Yeah.
Zain
44:34
You've got to be sure that you – yeah.
Corey
44:36
Yeah, and that does seem like the more likely outcome just based on his personal popularity and all of that. And then he would be going into a general election having killed a
Corey
44:46
a sycophant of Jason Kenney, and it just allows him to say all of the things you don't want him to say with so much more credibility and authority. already.
Zain
44:53
Corey, I'm going to stick with you for a second. Let's go down the second pathway, the pathway you would suggest to Jason Kenney. Brian Jean's papers do not get signed.
Zain
45:05
What does Brian Jean do? You're advising Brian Jean. Are you saying, Brian, I laid out an example earlier where the proof point for Kenney could be made that should you run as an independent and
Zain
45:14
and the NDP come through the middle, Kenney's point is made to
Zain
45:18
to a T. A proof point is created by your race. Do you suggest he run? Do you suggest he sit on his hands till the leadership review? Do you think he chirps from the sidelines? If you're advising Brian Jean and his papers don't get signed, he's telegraphed broadly, I want to run for the UCP. What recourse or what plan B are you suggesting to him?
Corey
45:43
Well, just breezing right past the irony of it all, I would run as an independent UCP. Right? I would have my signs... Carter's
Zain
45:52
Carter's nodding his head aggressively and smiling just
Zain
45:54
just so people can...
Corey
45:54
can... My signs would be blue. I would say, I'm going to go. This guy is not around for long. I will caucus with the UCP once he's gone. I will actively represent the conservative values of this riding in the legislature. And when he is gone, you are going to have a strong representative in me who is part of a united conservative caucus. caucus so
Zain
46:14
you're running as so i'm clear on this you're running as an independent ucp colors logo well you can't use i mean you can't use the logo but you're gonna do everything everything you can okay so branding as and you're you're gonna caucus with them uh you're okay interesting carter you're vigorously nodding your head it seems like you agree with that strategy is that what you would suggest too absolutely
Carter
46:35
absolutely i mean make it so there's only one true conservative choice and
Carter
46:39
and you just I
Carter
46:41
I mean, Brian Jean is popular. He is popular up in that area. Corey's mentioned a number, some of the reasons why people who know Brian Jean on a personal level quite like Brian Jean, especially for McMurray. You're not going to find a group of people that can get around him. I think he runs an independent. I think he's immediately viable.
Zain
47:05
As an independent UCP, there's no part of either of you that thinks he brings back any of the past brands or anything like that at that point? He doesn't act like a jilted sort of like, oh, no, like, you know, now we're going to start our own thing? I think as Carter earlier, you know, I'd say just a few minutes ago, you're saying the brand is dead, the party's dead. You can't have that line if you run as an independent UCP. Is there any value in considering the previous brands that he's been associated with and starting to create something new through the process of his run? You
Carter
47:34
You don't want to be Drew Barnes.
Carter
47:36
You don't want to be Todd Lohan, right? Where are they? Who knows? Who cares, right? So if you're going to do this, you have to go for the big brass ring. and the big brass ring is the leadership of the of the ucp he can get there by showing people that you know what he's really trying to do is say guys you don't need jason kenney to win seats i'm going to show you i'm going to win a seat right here right now without jason kenney i'm going to do it i'm going to show you how it's done and then once i've done this i'm going to help you so that we can all do this together because right now jason kenney can't win you shit But if you come with me, we can all win our seats.
Corey
48:14
Corey, you want to jump in on
Corey
48:15
Yeah, I agree. And I think him running as this independent UCP, and
Corey
48:20
and let's just say he absolutely crushes the conservative candidate, the UCP candidate, the official UCP candidate.
Zain
48:27
candidate. Yeah, the one who's got the party apparatus and resources
Corey
48:29
resources behind them. them yet like let's just say it is like 65 30 yeah i don't you know five and uh and the 30 is the ndp and the actual ucp candidate is basically nowhere i think that's a real possibility yeah in that scenario so
Carter
48:47
so now i ask you the following question cory hogan now
Carter
48:51
now seeing how this plays is he likely to sign the papers or likely to not sign the papers not
Corey
48:57
not sign the paper good
Carter
48:58
good god man oh
Zain
49:01
you still you so so cory play this out then by the way this is just uh so the audience is where this is the first of several fine fabulous or fucked question yeah wait a minute yeah yeah it was the wrong segment to do this buried in a fucking segment uh no
Zain
49:14
no this is fascinating so we kept it going good good point carter play it out cory
Carter
49:19
cory right how does anybody let's say let's say conclusion he has to sign the papers it's
Zain
49:23
it's 60 gene 25 ndp um
Zain
49:28
um and then the rest kind of goes to the to the ucp candidate the other 15 yeah well listen
Corey
49:33
listen listen jackasses possibility does not mean inevitability or probability that's not the most likely thing you
Zain
49:40
you don't think that's the most likely thing to happen that i don't know
Corey
49:43
know that there's a deep
Corey
49:45
deep campaign against kenny that gene runs and Oh,
Corey
49:48
sure. Yeah, they're going to do that. But if you're Jason Kenney and you're running the playbook that I've suggested here,
Corey
49:55
you're not just letting him claim to be an independent UCP. You're fighting back the other way, too. Doing what?
Corey
50:02
You are doing exactly what I said along the lines of, like, this
Corey
50:05
this guy is not interested in the United Conservative Party. He's running as a separate United Conservative Party candidate against
Zain
50:13
against the United Conservative
Corey
50:14
Conservative Party. Because you didn't let him in.
Corey
50:16
if he wants to fight me for the leadership there's a mechanism for that but what he's trying to do right now is just throw bombs and see if he can create as much chaos as possible and rise to the top of it that's not something that this party needs and that's not something this province needs and you fight that and you keep it to a point where he's not winning 65 30 or to 5 but instead it's more like 40 to 30 to 40 or i don't know that's that math doesn't
Corey
50:41
but sure My point is where any of those three could be the 40, including the NDP. But here's
Carter
50:46
here's the thing. That's not inconceivable. The guy who won it for the Wild Rose in 2015 when it was the NDP sweep, that guy was Brian Jean.
Carter
50:57
Right? Like Brian Jean can win this riding with his eyes closed.
Carter
51:02
When it was the big, everybody's voting it orange because we had to get rid of the NDP, they won. There's
Corey
51:08
other fucking players on the field. So you're going to have the NDP talking about the curriculum. You're going to be talking about vaccine mandates, which still are supported by the majority of the population. There's a lot of reason to believe the NDP will outperform that 2015 result, which was about 35%, I believe, right? Yeah,
Carter
51:24
also a lot of reason to believe that Brian Jean outperforms.
Carter
51:28
Brian Jean is – Oh, there's not? Yes. Oh, my God. Sign the papers, Matt.
Zain
51:33
Let's talk about the NDP, Carter. What are the stakes for the NDs here?
Zain
51:37
Do they – Nothing
Carter
51:38
Nothing at all. This is this is the the free pass that anybody really wants. This is going to be a spectacular moment for them where they win.
Carter
51:48
Great. They lose. And it's Brian Jean. Fucking
Carter
51:52
Fucking fantastic. Fantastic. Right. It is watching your opponent destroy themselves. sells um they lose to some guy named bob
Carter
52:02
um for united conservative party then brian jean's out of the picture i guess that that's the only negative outcome but what probability are we putting on that five percent probability ten percent one you know are we basically saying that this is this is uh you know it's certainly not roulette black and red our analogy that we We were using with the return
Carter
52:24
return to, you know, best summer ever turned
Carter
52:27
turned into not being a best summer ever. I was right on that, too, I might add.
Carter
52:32
was right on everything.
Carter
52:33
I've been basically right for the entire podcast.
Zain
52:36
Corey, stakes for the NDs. Do you agree with Carter?
Corey
52:37
Carter? It's nothing? So you are, speaking
Corey
52:40
speaking of meta, you are now embracing the Jason Kenney rewrite history strategy. This is great. I love it. Carter
Zain
52:46
Carter is the meta materials of this podcast. He is. I'm meta world peace, baby.
Zain
52:53
it's actually a pretty decent reference it's good i like that it's
Corey
52:56
what's meta world peace uh real name not real name previous name previous name previous
Carter
53:02
um who can who can read that high up i
Carter
53:04
i have no idea can't remember we'll
Zain
53:06
we'll give you the first name we'll
Zain
53:09
we'll give the first name it's ron ornest
Zain
53:15
than i thought you'd be but
Corey
53:16
but not ornest that's not that's It's not Ornette's.
Zain
53:19
Closer than I thought you'd be is a Stephen Carter story. Just like, it's not bad.
Zain
53:24
For a guy who knows nothing, not bad.
Carter
53:29
off here. Does that guy play basketball?
Zain
53:31
He does. Played. Corey, finish
Zain
53:34
this off here. Stakes for the NDP. Fabulous. It's fabulous. Thank you for a robot. We've reached the point where it's circular. Stakes for the NDP in this race.
Zain
53:46
Do you agree with Carter that they're not? I don't think
Corey
53:48
think there's none. I think that there's still going to be relative performance considerations. And if the NDP somehow did worse than they did in 2019, or only about as well as they did in 2019, and the conservatives were still capturing all of that energy, and there was sort of an oppositional energy that found other outlets than the NDP, like that went to an independent conservative candidate, that would cause me concern in NDP party headquarters. quarters, because that would suggest in
Corey
54:15
in a landscape that is still evolving, if it ends up with another conservative party, or if if Jason Kenney just disappears, the UCP vote might just flip back up to where it was previously, it might be very difficult to win that 2023 election that you've been leading in for, you know, in polls for for about a year at this point, right? So I don't think there's no stakes. But I also don't believe that, that the stakes are that that high. And And given everything we know about the state of polling in the province, given everything we know about the temperature in this province around vaccine passports, curriculum, doctors, well, even frankly, oil and gas, and just this sense of like, are we investing in the things to do the next thing for Alberta? Florida.
Corey
54:59
I guess I'd be surprised if the NDP did worse than in 2019. I think they'll probably be around their 2015 results, or better.
Corey
55:07
better. And if they're at 2015, there's no problems in the world for them.
Zain
55:12
I'm going to leave that there. There's a boatload of questions I want to get to. I'm going to park a lot of them until Sunday, but let's head on to our next one. Corey, I'm going to start with you. Fine, fabulous, or fucked for
Zain
55:23
for Aaron O'Toole in a a move that many call a direct challenge to his leadership. 15 to 30 Tory MPs and senators are starting a new caucus to speak for anti-vaxxers who are losing their jobs. Corey, this caucus, which is being formed called the Civil Liberties Caucus.
Carter
55:45
Yes. Sorry, I laughed. I didn't mean to.
Zain
55:47
to. Yes. Within the Conservatives, this, of course, on the heels of Aaron O'Toole finally Finally, succumbing to saying that MPs that are going to appear in the House of Commons will get vaccinated. Corey, if you're Aaron O'Toole, is this fine? Eh, whatever. Civil Liberties Caucus. Is this fabulous? Amazing. I've been waiting my life for the Civil Liberties Caucus. Or is this, oh, fucked. I am so fucked here. What is this, Corey?
Corey
56:12
Hey, Zane, can you come here for a minute? Yeah, yeah, I'm right here. Just lean. You want us
Corey
56:17
us to talk about O'Toole now at
Corey
56:20
at the 55-minute mark?
Zain
56:21
That's fine. the people the people want good content and i am providing them turning in
Carter
56:27
in every week hoping that we'll get better
Zain
56:31
is it is fucked hey really
Carter
56:34
you can't we don't have separate caucuses in canada it just doesn't work i
Corey
56:38
i mean there are there are kind of like quasi caucuses that exist it's not entirely true steven but i do think
Carter
56:43
think that like they're they're quasi like Like they're like loosey-goosey, you know, you
Carter
56:51
you have regional caucuses, we'll have gendered caucuses, yeah, but they're not trying to serve as a general caucus, not in the way that we see the Black Caucus in the United States or some of the other. No,
Corey
57:03
No, it does seem like it's a bit of an import. I absolutely agree with you there. I think the reason I think it's fucked, though, is because we've got such an obvious flashpoint that's now coming, and we've got a vehicle that could add a bit of gasoline to this particular fire. So when Parliament resumes, and people walk in, and they're not vaccinated, and they are
Corey
57:25
expelled from Parliament, and the Conservative caucus, which has said, no, our people need to be vaccinated to come in, doesn't stand by them, and has to either A, kick them out, or B, not, let's say they choose door number A, well, then what? Then all of a sudden, there's already a caucus called the civil liberties caucus that they're just going to go sit in and so in some ways this is pre-creating the uh infrastructure that they need uh when this shit goes sour as it will inevitably go so like i think it's a little fucked for erin o'toole i think losing caucus members in that scenario basically dooms your leadership and um and
Corey
58:01
and so it'll be interesting and see how he gets himself out of this box.
Zain
58:07
from your perspective, the Civil Liberties Caucus, for Aaron O'Toole, fine, fabulous, or fucked?
Carter
58:14
Oh, it's fabulous for him. I mean, oh no, fabulous means something different. It's fucked, Zane, it's fucked.
Zain
58:21
Carter, I'm going to move at a much quicker pace for our next one. Oh, we're
Carter
58:25
we're not going to do a 45-minute segment on... No, there's
Zain
58:28
there's really not much to say. We're going to deep dive into it later. Fine, fabulous, or fucked for Justin Trudeau. He's expected to announce plans to raise the flags and then re-lower them on the 11th. There's a lot of controversy around this because, of course, now the scenario of raising the flags on the 11th to lower them again is one that's been accepted by Indigenous leaders. Many are giving them flack for why the flags are still lowered. Many are using it as a symbol for the lack of action while simultaneously trying to reach an agreement with, you know, the indigenous kids lawsuit that they were going to appeal. Is this fine, fabulous or fucked, the current situation for Trudeau on the symbol of the flags?
Carter
59:12
I think it's pretty fucked. I think that, you know, the problem with running into something like this when you don't have a strategy to get out of it, you know, these
Carter
59:20
these are important issues. These issues aren't going to go away because we lower the flags. Right. Right. And this is what I have with some of my big problems with some of the symbology on these things. You know, we will put up a monument, we'll put up a some sort of a statement, we'll lower the flags. But we didn't solve the problem. So Justin
Carter
59:37
Justin Trudeau has to move the flags back up because he needs to actually solve the problem. And then we do need to lower the flags on November the 11th. um these
Carter
59:50
are different symbols for different or the same symbol for different reasons and that's very problematic i i really do think that justin
Carter
59:59
justin trudeau needs to actually come up with some sort of uh you know indigenous strategy that makes sense for first nations people across canada and it's easy to say that and hard to do that and i'm really glad that he's not asking me me to do it.
Zain
1:00:14
Corey, his raise, lower, re-lower strategy, which he seems to have found agreement on, but it's still nagging in terms of its criticism and lack of action. Fine, fabulous, or fucked for Trudeau on the flag symbolism question?
Corey
1:00:31
I agree with much of what Stephen said. There's a little nuance maybe I don't agree with here, but it's kind of worse than just symbolism because we lowered the flags until
Corey
1:00:43
it was inconvenient to have the flags lowered i mean i mean like in a way it's it just like it just shows how bloody shallow the exercise was in the first place right you could make a case that these flags should stay lowered for quite some time you could also make the case that having them lowered for that long uh really solves nothing instead Instead, we found this, I don't know, I mean, classically liberal in the worst sense of it, compromise where we are going to keep them lowered until we don't want to have them lowered. And then we're going to lower them again later. Like, it's just the wildest thing to me. I don't understand it. And I kind of
Corey
1:01:23
of applaud everybody's humanity in trying to find a solution that grieves the fewest people. Really, I think Indigenous leaders are being far too kind on this particular matter with, you know, settlers and with Justin Trudeau more specifically. But I don't
Corey
1:01:40
don't know, man. I mean, it's just, to me, it just sort of is, it's as bad as the surfing in Tofino in the sense of like, you really sort of see what's important at moments like this.
Zain
1:01:52
We'll go to our final one, Corey. I'm going to start with you. Fine, fabulous, or fucked for our province, the province of Alberta, with the largest oil industry sending the fewest reps to COP26 than any other energy province. From the perspective of some observers, they say it's a missed opportunity. Others are like, this is going to be an international gab fest. It doesn't matter. It's already baked and prescripted.
Zain
1:02:15
Very small delegation to Alberta. For Alberta, the province, the brand, fine, fabulous, or fucked?
Corey
1:02:23
think it's fine i think if the government had sort of a different approach you know actually i don't know let's talk this one out a bit sure so i actually think um this
Carter
1:02:33
isn't the game is played the game isn't played let's talk this out anything
Zain
1:02:37
anything related to alberta clearly we get to talk it out that's the new caveat
Carter
1:02:40
caveat okay so when
Corey
1:02:46
when jason kitty talks about esg issues i actually find him fairly compelling on these matters. He makes a case that is a case that's been made by this province and refined by this province over many decades. I think that there's a lot of kind of
Corey
1:03:02
over optimism and phoniness within the case, but the case is effectively, listen, you know, the industry has gotten better. The industry has these very strong objectives. We care about the environment. We were one of the first jurisdictions to put a price on carbon. urban uh certainly one of the first oil producing jurisdictions we have taken steps ahead of other oil producing jurisdictions we you know produce this resource in a an environment of of like uh you know social stability and good governance uh and uh and ultimately we are democratic and you know all of these things right and uh and
Corey
1:03:39
and i think if that was the argument he was going to carry it'd
Corey
1:03:42
it'd be interesting i think the the ndp were more natural uh carriers of that argument argument. Because the problem is, sprinkled within that very sort of practical argument is just this kind of pugilism, which does us no favors at a venue like COP26. So I guess if everybody could stay totally on script, I think it would be a missed opportunity.
Corey
1:04:04
The fact that I worry that we would immediately get into the same territory that led to the Canadian Energy Center or the the Allen inquiry into un-Alberta activities here, right? I
Corey
1:04:16
think that there's actually just a risk that there's more people there, more people who might say things that are off script. So it's probably fine. It is a missed opportunity, but it's not something that,
Corey
1:04:31
I don't know, you got to know yourself. Like when you create a presentation, know your goals, know your audience, know yourself. And I think knowing yourself in this would really lead you to not sending a bunch of people because of the risks somebody might say something wild. Garner,
Zain
1:04:44
Garner, over to you. Fine, fabulous, or fucked for Alberta, brand Alberta, the province of Alberta, the people of Alberta, that we sent the smallest delegation of any energy-producing province to COP26.
Carter
1:04:56
think it's pretty fucked.
Carter
1:04:58
I think that Corey makes a really good case that Jason Kenney sounds quite solid
Carter
1:05:03
solid when he talks to these things. It's an opportunity to speak to it, but this isn't what his political aspiration
Carter
1:05:08
aspiration is. His political aspiration is the war room. Right.
Carter
1:05:14
know, 30 million dollars a year into a communications exercise that's doomed to fail and has failed every single year that has existed. That just tells me that we're going to continue to to spin wheels. The
Carter
1:05:29
The symbolism matters. Right. The symbolism of going the symbolism. Companies are going. People are going. People are there. um
Carter
1:05:37
the symbolism matters uh we have to open ourselves up to the idea of an energy transition here's the thing every major oil company has opened themselves to a transition everybody's been investing in a transition for for over a decade when did we start talking about carbon capture cory like 15
Carter
1:05:55
15 years ago yeah
Carter
1:05:58
um when did we invest a billion dollars into carbon capture 10 years ago, right? Like, these are real investments that were made into making our economy more carbon neutral because you know what? 10 years ago, we knew we needed to. It didn't get better in the intervening 10 years, and Jason Kenney missed an opportunity. The embattled Jason Kenney has the capacity to step out of the hole. He passed it up again. I don't understand it.
Zain
1:06:26
We're going to leave that segment there, Moving on to our over, under, and our lightning round. Stephen Carter, we do this for you. This podcast is for you. You're still on the podcast. One of those three things should not be true. We'll start here. Overrated, underrated. Stephen Carter, the Civil Liberties Caucus, in terms of what it might mean for O'Toole's downfall. Overrated.
Zain
1:06:48
These guys are not going to be worth shit. Underrated, in your mind. What do you think?
Carter
1:06:53
Ah, interesting. But they are the situation
Carter
1:06:56
situation that Kenny finds himself in right now. The conservative movement frays from both sides, and this is something that is fraying from both sides.
Zain
1:07:06
Quite overrated, underrated, the Civil Liberties caucus in terms of O'Toole's downfall.
Corey
1:07:13
I think it's underrated as well. Well, maybe it won't be this particular caucus or this version, but it's one of the stronger manifestations we've seen of this real divide within conservative politics that we've seen in the past 20 years.
Corey
1:07:28
Conservative parties unite federally and provincially, if you happen to live in Alberta here, and we're seeing them being torn apart in front of our eyes. And these are the kinds of vehicles that do it.
Zain
1:07:39
Great. Overrated or underrated? The threat that Brian Jean is to Jason Kenney's leadership, overrated, underrated in your mind? Oh, I think, hmm.
Corey
1:07:51
That's it. Let's talk this one out. Everything you've
Zain
1:07:55
you've said, I wanted to ask you that question.
Corey
1:07:58
Yeah. Well, look, I mean, I think we've got to start with the baseline that his leadership is in mortal peril, right? And so when we talk about Brian Jean's threat to it, I don't know. I mean, I don't think he's actually adding that much more threat to what already existed. And I guess that would be my point.
Corey
1:08:17
In fact, he may provide him an avenue to lessen that threat, as we were talking about a bit earlier. So I guess I'm going to say overrated, but I wouldn't want to be misunderstood as suggesting that that means
Corey
1:08:26
means that Jason Kenney's in an easy position. Quite, quite, quite the opposite. it carter
Zain
1:08:30
carter overrated underrated the threat brian jean presents to jason kenney
Carter
1:08:38
think under i mean underrated
Carter
1:08:41
underrated i guess because it's
Carter
1:08:43
it's everything's out of the closet now right all
Carter
1:08:46
all the all the threats are now going to be seen um you
Carter
1:08:49
you know the knives are coming out on their closing hand this is what happens at the end and um brian jean's decided to to put it all in the open.
Carter
1:09:01
think that that's a bold move that we don't normally see.
Zain
1:09:05
Carter, between 1 to 10, 1 being the start of the scale, 10 being the higher end of the scale, what are the stakes for the UCP in this Fort McMurray by-election, the party? Now, I'm not thinking about the independent UCP. What are the stakes for the UCP in this by-election?
Carter
1:09:22
It's an A+. We really need to see people, you know, they have to win. They have to dig in, they have to win. And that's why I'm convinced that Jason Kenney signs his papers.
Zain
1:09:33
One to ten, Corey, the stakes for the UCP in this by-election?
Zain
1:09:39
Corey, I'm going to stick with you for our final question. Yes or no,
Zain
1:09:43
regardless of what jersey he is wearing, will Brian Jean be on the ballot in Fort McMurray? Whether as a UCP or an independent, will he be on the ballot in Fort McMurray?
Zain
1:09:57
Yes. Yes. Carter, regardless of the jersey color, the jersey type, will Brian Jean be on the ballot in Fort McMurray in the by-election? That's
Carter
1:10:03
That's the first thing Corey's got right today.
Zain
1:10:07
We'll leave it there. That's a wrap on episode 950 of The Strategist. My name is Zane Belgey. With me, as always, Stephen Carter, Corey Hogan, and we'll see you next time.