Episode 943: Short strokes

Zain 0:02

This is The Strategist, episode 943. My name is Zain Velji. With me, as always, Corey Hogan, Stephen Carter. Guys, what is going on? It is Sunday. Quickly, before we get started, Corey, is your mom in a home yet?

Corey 0:15

This is awkward that she's going to find out this way.

Corey 0:19

Planned for a little later this week. Oh,

Zain 0:21

Oh, that's excellent. That's excellent. Carter, how's your weekend been going, throwing tomatoes across the Pacific?

Carter 0:28

It's going very well. I have not tossed any tomatoes across the Pacific, but I'm trying. I'm trying to because that is my actual way of doing foreign relations with China.

Carter 0:38

So I'm all set. I'm all set.

Zain 0:41

That's good. One Fat Carter shows up again. Before we jump into this, because new listeners to the show will know that this is primarily a political strategy podcast where we dissect campaign and political strategy. We also double and triple AFL. We won't get into that. But also the number seventh ranked Ted Lasso fan podcast. And we have to talk about Ted Lasso this week. Corey, a masterstroke of an episode?

Corey 1:11

don't know. I feel like in some ways it retroactively made every episode before it kind of depressing. Yeah. Because, and this is where you're going to want to fast forward, hit that forward 15 second, 30 second button if you don't want to hear this. Also, if

Zain 1:24

if you don't want to hit the forward button, you can hit that music button, baby, at this moment right

Corey 1:28

right now. Hit the music button, baby! Also an alternative option for all of you. Yes, Corey, please.

Corey 1:33

But his cheerful demeanor, his tirelessly cheerful demeanor is just an overcorrection from uh his dad being so miserable he offed himself that's that's really dark that's a dark show all of a sudden uh

Zain 1:47

uh it is it is uh carter while that stream happens uh i think we are solidifying in television history uh that roy kent is the best character of the last half decade i

Carter 1:57

i believe so and i cannot be happier that you two called me the roy kent of the podcast Because before we knew, he was... Thank you again, my

Corey 2:04

I am the Roy Kent of

Corey 2:09

No, I'm standing by your Jamie Tart's dad. I think that's more true.

Zain 2:13

true. Especially after sitting

Carter 2:14

sitting on the table. After the last

Zain 2:16

Oh my gosh, that guy had real Stephen Carter energy. Real Carter energy. God,

Carter 2:21

I hate you guys sometimes.

Zain 2:22

sometimes. It was incredible Carter energy. I know, you're

Corey 2:25

you're just taking a piss. You're just taking a piss. We get it. We

Zain 2:27

We get it. We get it. You show up to

Corey 2:29

this podcast... Hanging out with amateurs. This is what you

Zain 2:30

you do. You show up to this podcast with a Hurley Burley shirt on. This is what you do, right? You don't give a flying fuck. You're just catting a lad

Carter 2:38

lad hat that you caught on. Is it still called Hurley

Carter 2:38

Hurley Burley? What is it

Carter 2:40

it now? What is it?

Corey 2:41

Curse of Politics. The Curse of Politics. The

Carter 2:43

The Curse of Politics.

Carter 2:44

Yeah, well, fuck off, Hurley Burley.

Carter 2:46

That's the Curse of Politics.

Corey 2:48

Politics. Great. Okay, fantastic. Good. You got any more friends you want to make during the intro? Nicely done. that oh

Carter 2:53

oh what do you think can go kiss my ass in depth is what this is not long smart ass

Carter 3:01

fuck you eric grenier fuck you too yeah

Zain 3:05

yeah eric grenier from uh his fabulous podcast really uh highlighting the the co-stars of this show uh last time so really appreciate that eric uh let's move yeah let's

Zain 3:15

let's move it on to our first segment our first segment failing upwards this once again the cory

Carter 3:21

cory hogan story this

Zain 3:22

this is the cory hogan story the cory hogan segment uh as we often do on this show uh either when i get lazy or when cory gets over zealous usually those two

Zain 3:33

are at the same time um because i'm generally always lazy as i do not write most of this show uh cory has a come up with a a framing a segment idea uh this is part part of our long-standing Corey Hogan Directs series. So I present to you Corey Hogan Directs, Failing Upwards. Corey, take it from here.

Corey 3:54

We're talking about the text that I sent you 12 hours ago that you couldn't even be fucked to put into a segment? I really couldn't.

Zain 4:00

couldn't. No, I couldn't. No. Just cut

Carter 4:03

hey? Couldn't even make it work.

Zain 4:05

I don't even know where it is now. I'm just looking at your face, hoping that you know what's going on.

Corey 4:10

All right. Well, there's been polls since the debate, And some of the polls, specifically Main Street and Nanos, have shown the liberals actually now in the lead and perhaps putting some significant distance between themselves and the conservatives. That's not tracked in all of the polls. And in fact, ECOS, I think, has actually shown the conservatives after tightening, opening up a little bit of a lead again, small numbers, small samples, can't see too much in that. But it

Corey 4:36

leads to the question, if the liberals are now in the lead, if the liberals are now in the lead after all of the things that we were talking about in the debate and saying, hey, maybe O'Toole won the debate. And I think what is pretty universal commentary that it was not a great night for Trudeau and it was a fine night for O'Toole almost as a result, right?

Corey 4:55

If that's the case, why? What is the possible rationale for the fact that the polls will be going up after something like that? So I got four theories for you all.

Carter 5:06

for us. Yeah, there

Corey 5:07

there was three earlier today, but you'll

Carter 5:09

there's a fourth. I'm really pleased you already rejected your first three and had to add a fourth one. Take

Zain 5:14

Take some notes, Carter.

Corey 5:16

Carter. Here we go.

Carter 5:16

go. I'm going to get my book. I'm getting my book right now.

Corey 5:19

Yeah, very good. Theory one is that the debates are awful and change nothing. The trend was already in the liberals' direction, so all

Corey 5:26

all of the commentary about the debate was pointless. It was not watchable. People didn't watch it, and it didn't change the momentum, and the momentum was in the liberals' favor.

Zain 5:34

Theory two is that

Corey 5:37

for Trudeau, but that made people realize for the first time in this election, perhaps, that he could lose, and they decided they didn't want that. This is something we talked about before, where perhaps, just perhaps, what Canadians need to do in order to come back to the Liberal Party is get over being mad at them for calling the election and really marinate on the idea of Prime Minister Aaron O'Toole. And we do know from the polling for most of this election, people have been pretty adamant, if you look at the numbers, that this is still Trudeau's election to lose. that he's going to win, irrespective of what the polls were saying. So maybe what's happened is it was a bad performance for Trudeau when people said, I

Corey 6:11

I don't know, I don't want to kick him out.

Corey 6:14

And it looks like he might lose.

Corey 6:15

Theory number three is, of course, Trudeau actually won the debate and we just didn't see it. You know, there was something else. And

Corey 6:21

And obviously, obviously, theory number four is Carter spoke the liberal surge into existence when he said O'Toole was already meeting with his transition team. And he continues his maddingly-like streak.

Corey 6:33

of just being absolutely wrong every time he predicts anything in politics.

Carter 6:38

Is it my fault you guys can't hear the right tone? Is

Carter 6:41

Is it my fault?

Zain 6:42

You do have tone issues. It has been said before. It is not a first time where someone would say you have tone issues, especially

Zain 6:50

you tell them to go fuck themselves. Usually people don't know what tone to take that in. And I don't know. They usually don't take it very charitably. So, Corey, those are your four theories. Carter, are you adding a fifth theory Or are we just are we going to marinate on Corey's four and go down that track one by one? Can

Carter 7:07

Can we just talk about how stupid theory number two is? Can we just break that down for a moment? I'm willing to accept that I may have willed it into existence by. Wait, can

Corey 7:15

can I just be clear? Theory number two. So the debates are off. So you willed it into existence. You're not willing to take off the table. But the

Corey 7:22

the theory that people looked at it and said, oh, my goodness, O'Toole could actually win this thing. He

Carter 7:27

He is so bad. i'm going to shift my thinking uh and support him because he's doing so bad yeah he's in danger he's in danger of losing this is the dumbest theory i don't think it's the no neither do i obviously you two are wrong it is the dumbest theory it is not a theory that holds water oh

Zain 7:46

oh my god cory

Carter 7:47

cory talk about when is grenier

Carter 7:49

grenier coming on the pod when

Zain 7:50

grenier replacing carter fully when is that happening i don't know okay

Carter 7:55

got to work out the details

Carter 7:57

two may have failed forward. You two may

Corey 7:59

may have failed up. Maybe we just put this

Corey 7:59

this one in the vault. Maybe we just do the Grenier one as the next one, people here. What do you think? Oh,

Zain 8:04

Oh, yeah, that'd be great. That'd be great.

Carter 8:06

Here's the one that's true. If

Carter 8:08

If you take a look at some of the numbers, I believe 14% of Canadians admit to watching the whole thing.

Carter 8:14

14%, okay? Those 14% aren't normal. Normal human beings couldn't have done it. 33% of the population said that they hadn't even heard about the debates. Those are the people. Those are the people who are still voting for Trudeau. The numbers don't add up that they watched it. They watched it and they thought, oh, my God, he's really in trouble. The numbers just aren't there of the number of people who who watch. I think it's two thirds of Canadians either

Carter 8:38

either heard about it from friends or what or didn't watch it at all.

Carter 8:43

so the numbers aren't there to make this type of shift the type of shift has to have come from um you

Carter 8:51

you know some something else outside of it but the bottom line that i think the theory that i think that you proposed that's right is the debates were awful and nothing mattered from them because even the people who liked them or who watched them didn't like them nothing positive came out of it so

Corey 9:07

so your theory is that

Corey 9:09

that it would be impossible to have a four-point shift where what 14 watched it and 53 heard of it through some some sort of communication so two thirds of people have some opinion of the debate and you think it's impossible just so i can understand no it's

Carter 9:26

it's impossible for the reason that you've thrown out it is impossible that people went that that many people went oh my god he sucked so bad i better shift my boat over to to stop o'toole no that is not a possible thing that is not a possible outcome that's

Corey 9:42

that's not not anyone saying that's

Carter 9:45

he was so awful that they shifted over to him shifted

Carter 9:49

over to stop no

Corey 9:50

no i said the debates were awful for trudeau but

Corey 9:53

but that made people realize that he could lose the election right

Corey 9:56

right they're not saying he's so bad i'm gonna vote for him they're saying the

Carter 10:00

the implicit idea no it's so bad i

Carter 10:03

know generally that's the campaign

Zain 10:04

strategy you run for your candidates where you just run a bit to the ground i

Carter 10:08

i mean really what you're suggesting is that we need to put the prime minister in a protective helmet to make sure that everything works out okay so he doesn't walk into his own bus or anything like that that's the theory that you know this is how the voters are making up their decision they're mine no this is a bad theory this is a bad theory the debates were awful is a good theory the

Carter 10:25

the debates were awful nobody watched nobody changed their minds the liberals were on the upward swing to begin with the debates had no impact. That's true. Because the idea that Trudeau won the debate, almost as ludicrous, almost as ludicrous as number two.

Corey 10:40

Okay. First of all, theory one is the Occam's razor theory. The idea that the debates just weren't watched and didn't change anything is the most obvious one. The other thing to keep in mind is we don't actually know that the liberals have real momentum here. We're going to have to see a few more polls before we can determine that.

Zain 10:54

When would you solidify that, Corey? It's not It's like your short strokes

Corey 10:58

strokes game. Is that like a Wednesday thing? I would say even before that, a Monday, Tuesday thing. I want to see some other polls, some non-tracking polls, and see if we see any movement. But the

Corey 11:09

the idea that bad performance can lead to increased polling

Corey 11:14

polling is not new or wild. In 2004, arguably, that happened to Paul Martin.

Corey 11:19

Paul Martin was roundly panned for his debate performance, and then he went up in the polls.

Carter 11:23

Jim Prentice and, you

Carter 11:26

all kinds of people. have just really performed poorly in the debates and just seen their numbers shoot up come

Carter 11:32

on cory jesus but

Carter 11:34

but calling it the occam's razor thing by the way making me look simple when it's the most likely outcome like that's unfair you i

Corey 11:41

i mean i think that's on you man no

Zain 11:45

can i rephrase what you're what cory's saying i please it's less about the debates more about a moment that highlighted how poorly or how much trouble a candidate is in and i've experienced something like this undermines

Carter 11:57

undermines the entire theory of election why why people want to vote for the best possible government don't they that's not voting for the second the the worst possible government are

Zain 12:06

are you purposely not understanding this i don't i don't know what's going on here

Corey 12:13

do you mean okay

Corey 12:14

okay that was good now it's time for the free-for-all

Carter 12:21

was a bad debate nobody watched it the people who did watch it were already locked in no one's moving their decision no

Carter 12:29

one's moving from that debate because no one no one who had a modicum of intelligence actually watched it all the way through and

Zain 12:36

and cory back to you go through go through your your

Corey 12:38

yeah i mean now i feel like i'm just i have to fight this fight against stephen carter on this this is good this is

Zain 12:44

is the debate we wanted unmoderated i am on the sidelines we

Zain 12:48

we have seen polling that

Corey 12:50

that shows i think it was 18 percent of canadians thought o2 it was was going to win the rest basically thought that that justin trudeau was going to win right

Corey 12:57

right i think that was somewhere around the most recent numbers that i saw still

Corey 13:01

you don't think yeah you

Corey 13:03

you don't think a moment and this was last week you don't think a moment where all of a sudden not just does it look like he lost the debate but everybody in the world is saying he may have lost he may have lost the prime ministership as a result all of the columns that that were spilled over the following day, you don't think that could maybe make Canadians think, hmm,

Corey 13:23

maybe Aaron O'Toole might be prime minister if things continue this way, and you don't think that might give some of them pause?

Corey 13:29

You can't wrap your shiny head around that?

Zain 13:34

shiny head. That all the pundits, like everyone is kind of like, you know, eh. No,

Carter 13:40

No, it's fucking stupid. It's

Carter 13:41

It's a lunatic, it's an idea that says, you know what,

Carter 13:45

if you really want to win this, if you really want to win this this is

Corey 13:53

is the most cogent steven's been here we

Zain 13:55

we go let's just translate the binary welcome

Zain 14:02

welcome back carter thank you for speaking droid there for a second i know you were trying

Corey 14:06

trying to appeal back

Corey 14:09

dreams where you take it out uh

Zain 14:12

uh do you want to now that you've had had a chance to uh speak to our small but growing uh droid listenership uh do you want to do you want to reverse course on what you were saying the insanity that you were proposing no

Carter 14:24

no i mean since since we last chatted i've

Carter 14:27

i've i've both moved upstairs where i have apparently less static electricity which baffles me uh but more to the point i uh have more oxygen and with more oxygen and flowing to my brain i am convinced uh that that

Carter 14:40

that the second option is still wrong

Carter 14:44

know the idea that people are like oh yeah he did really a bad job so i'm i need to protect him like he's a puppy dog uh he's the prime minister for for god's sake people people want the best person to be the prime minister no one has ever failed up into the prime ministership That is not the way the role works.

Corey 15:05

Didn't you work for Joe Clark?

Carter 15:10

Mr. Clark is a great man.

Zain 15:17

Corey, work through the rest of your theories. I want you to just get your fair shake in this segment of Corey Hogan Directs. You've gone through the first one. when carter's of course has no restraint so he uh has has tried to pick apart the second one uh do you want to move on to the third spend some more time on the second before you go to the fourth there's

Carter 15:39

there's nothing to go over on trudeau won the debate there is no one who thought trudeau doesn't think he won the debate oh

Corey 15:46

yeah okay well maybe maybe instead of playing it on points maybe instead of us talking about it in this meta-analysis and did he deliver his message eloquently. Maybe Canadians just liked what he said. Maybe they liked his climate plan's ambition. Maybe they liked the fact that he said, hey, I can't believe you wanted to put the flag back up on September 30th. And I don't know. I mean, it's possible that this was more about content than it was style. And maybe they thought that those answers that I described as overstuffed were robust and comprehensive. It's possible. It's not necessarily the theory that I would give the most credence too because it feels like a lot of people who watched the debate came to the same conclusion that was a bit of a rough night for the prime minister but it's certainly possible

Carter 16:34

no it's not good story i mean

Carter 16:38

mean zane did you hear the prime minister won the debate

Zain 16:41

um i know i did not know so

Carter 16:44

so there you go zane doesn't think that trudeau won the debate and and he's the everyman, right?

Carter 16:48

right? So there you, you

Corey 16:55

mean, Zane did watch the debate.

Carter 16:59

But did he understand it? Are we pretending like Zane isn't

Corey 17:01

isn't here? Are we just

Carter 17:01

just going to do, am I doing it? Like, did he understand each of the intricacies? No, I was actually, I was actually, I

Zain 17:06

I was actually busy keeping time when she was, when she was asking the questions, because that's what, that was my job during the debate.

Corey 17:13

debate. Well, no, here's my point. 53% heard of it from their friends. only 14% watched directly. That makes Zayn sadly not the everyman. But if there is an argument to be made that the content is more important here, don't you think the fact it's filtered through the media and the news and Twitter and all of that, where the best, most reasonably packaged versions of the liberal message will get through, don't you think it's possible that it actually did better for the liberals on bundling than it did on live watch? Or

Zain 17:43

Or even, could I just add also the rebel media clip clip that was in addition to from the night before no

Zain 17:48

no rebel media okay

Carter 17:50

yeah that's outside of it i i don't i'm not giving you that on the english language debate i mean i think that the point is i mean if he won he won outside of the debate if he if he lost um you

Carter 18:02

you don't fail up i think that the end of the day this is a reflection of of cory's first analysis um not his second or his third or even his fourth it's hard you know and i do admire you though cory by putting forward four ideas and four theories you do look like you're going to be right under at least one of those scenarios uh

Corey 18:23

uh do you oh no there's a there's a fifth theory that we didn't even put on the table

Zain 18:26

table dude let's do fourth and then add the fifth which

Corey 18:29

which is that the gain was from the french language debate where

Corey 18:32

where trudeau did pretty well and o'toole was pretty shaky yeah

Carter 18:35

yeah but that wouldn't

Carter 18:36

wouldn't that that mostly carry in quebec i mean wouldn't we see highly regional numbers i mean again again it's daily tracking so we're not gonna have the sample size but are

Zain 18:47

are we just gonna skip over number four uh

Corey 18:50

carter uh spoke the surge into existence oh i think that's gonna be the consensus pick at the end here if

Corey 18:56

if i'm not mistaken i

Carter 18:58

do like having that kind of power

Carter 19:01

i just wish it wasn't in the negative it was more positive but you know whatever

Zain 19:05

Corey, where do you land? So I'm really curious. Carter, you've been, like I said, showing very restraint, telling us you land with—is it number two, Carter? You believe in number two, right?

Carter 19:16

right? Number one, number one, not number two.

Carter 19:18

two. Number two is bad. So

Carter 19:21

finicky and specific about the numbers. What I'm saying, Zane, is I need five more seconds to explain myself, Zane. So now you get— Zane, if I could just have five more seconds. Corey's had more time than I have. No, I'm going to go to Corey. You're not moderating so much as debating at this point. I'm going to

Zain 19:32

to go to Corey. I'm going to go to Corey. Corey, I'm going to go to Corey. Corey, your mother is soon to be put in a home. I'm going to give you five seconds to let us know where you land on this rubric that you have created.

Corey 19:44

You know, I'll wait to

Corey 19:46

final judgment until some polling comes out this week that

Zain 19:49

answer to the question. You're

Zain 19:53

This is why you don't run the show. I just need to let you know. This is a good reminder why I should be just a little bit less lazy.

Corey 20:02

think it could very well be number two. I do think the debate was a big narrative generator. I feel like there's a lot of conversation that comes around the debate, even if you don't watch the debate. All of your favorite columnists, all of your favorite Twitter glitterati, they're all going to be putting out into the universe what they think they saw, along with the bolt-on comments of, hey, and I think this could mean that Trudeau's in trouble. And that might have just been what people needed to snap their necks back and say, oh, hold on.

Zain 20:31

can win this thing. A serious polling question for both of you. Is there a way for us to definitively find this out? Like, I mean, hypothetically, if we were a pollster, what would one be asking or trying to tease out to figure out between these five strategies? I'm legitimately asking a serious, like, research

Carter 20:48

I'll tell you what you're not going to do. You're not going to ask them directly, right? Yeah, I assumed. assumed, but you're going to have to filter through, um, you know, kind of like what they heard when they heard it, heard, they heard it from the relationship. I mean, there's a whole bunch of, uh, you

Carter 21:03

you know, who, which, who in your relationship circle did you hear this from? Uh, and how much do you trust them? I mean, there's, there's a whole bunch of kind

Carter 21:11

kind of modeling that would need to be conducted to even get to understanding

Carter 21:15

understanding what the right source is, because it's kind of like when you go and buy a new car and you're buying the new car because you

Carter 21:21

you really like where the cup holders are but you're never going to tell anybody where the cup holder you know that's the reason that's

Zain 21:26

that's the rationale you're

Carter 21:27

you're going to say it's

Carter 21:29

it's a super safe vehicle and that's why i chose to buy it um so if especially if cory's correct i'm moving back to the prime minister because i don't want to uh o'toole might not be the way that uh people phrase things they'll they'll they'll tell you a different lie and you'll need to figure out uh using a bunch of questions um um and skillful analysis which is what you

Carter 21:53

you know this this is what bugs me about polls i mean the pollsters do this work all the time they're just not telling the canadian public about it so

Carter 22:00

right i'd love to you know we'll we'll hear about it four months later uh we certainly won't hear about it now uh

Zain 22:06

cory question for you i mean you've you've run and supervised like significant quantities of research over the years a question like this to tease out amongst five theories that that you've got ideas about. How would you go about from a high level trying to figure out which one of these is perhaps correct? So

Corey 22:22

So the debates change nothing in some ways is almost your null hypothesis, right? You have all of your other theories out there, and they're much more testable. And absent any of them, theory one looks the strongest. So for

Corey 22:35

theory two, the debates were awful, but they made people think that maybe Trudeau could lose. Then you look at who's going going to win this election. And that's numbers that we've seen throughout the election. If we see there was a significant spike in that week over week, it's a pretty reasonable hypothesis that that can be attributed to the debate, given that polling actually ran in the other direction during that particular week, right? The Liberals climbed in the polls relative to the Conservatives. So that would be pretty strong justification for theory number two. Theory number three you test on is really easy. You just poll and you say who won the debate. And if we see that the plurality of canadians think that trudeau won the debate in particularly people in that red orange switching group or in that red blue switching group then yeah you can say okay he probably did better in the debate in in the final summation than people thought theory four that carter spoken into existence is a little bit harder to test but we would go back at the rich body of data that shows that whenever stephen carter makes a prediction in politics the opposite comes true and that that that would also be useful. If you can exclude all of your other theories, that's when you land back on maybe the debates didn't have an effect at all. But this is your opportunity almost to look for the ones that are testable and say, okay,

Corey 23:47

okay, what is the one that's going to be likely if all of our testable theories fall flat? Now, where you run into a challenge, but not, is what if multiple ones show up to be true? Well, then you can suggest, I suppose, either

Corey 24:00

either one of these hypotheses is it stronger or not or you say maybe both of them are true because they're not mutually exclusive it's quite possible the debates change nothing for some people it's quite possible for other people they got nervous as a result watching the debates you know the maybe the red blue switchers felt really anxious and thought oh tool's gonna win this thing and we're less likely to switch maybe trudeau actually won the debate for the red orange switchers so it's possible for all of them to be true as well carter

Zain 24:26

carter i want to get into a bit of strategy perhaps accepting the fact that that Trudeau is now perhaps in the lead. Let's just assume that we're at Tuesday. We get a couple more days, we'll find out very quickly, of this sort of tracking poll, and Trudeau's in the lead. The question I have for you, Carter, is, is a lead a lead a lead? And what I mean by that is, if you're the liberal camp, are you acting exactly the same, regardless of which of these theories got you the lead in the final stretch? Or is there any nuance or difference that you need to consider with how you got that lead and what your messaging may look like going forward? So for example, if the lead was just like the debate didn't matter, you're powering through, suppose you're able to figure this out, or you have a good hunch yourself internally, because they're doing reams of polling that we don't have access to, or the resources to do. So the question I have for you, are any of these theories creating a different sort of outcome for you strategically in how you use and capitalize that lead? Or are all leads the same and your strategy is singular and you power through? through if

Carter 25:22

if cory's theory was correct then we're going to do you know like the trudeau was awful but they were so afraid of of o'toole that they are moving then you do a bunch of negative ads uh it's all about all the worst things that o'toole could be doing you bring back uh stephen harper you bring back andrew sheer you bring back um you know the derrick sloans of the world you know the the the cheryl galantz uh that form your conservative caucus i mean derrick sloan's out but But Leslie, Leslie Lewis is back in. You grab every every statement that they've ever made. You grab the 73 people that voted against a woman's right to choose. You know, you you go negative, negative, negative, negative to remind people just how bad it can be. Hell, maybe you even jump on how bad Ford has been. Maybe you jump on how bad Kenny has been.

Carter 26:10

And you bang that all the way to the end. If you believe if through some

Carter 26:14

some miracle, You believe that Trudeau actually won the debate and people think that he is walking on water, then maybe you wrap him in the Canadian flag and start doing more positives. So yeah, I think it does matter, Zane, what the thesis is on this. And if you go with the debates were awful and really didn't have much impact. and it was the it was the like

Zain 26:34

like the simplest choice yeah yeah

Carter 26:37

or here's another choice here's another choice all of these polls are within the margin of error right

Carter 26:43

right all of them are incredibly tight it doesn't matter which poll you're looking at let's just go with a simple theory that says no one's in front everybody's behind let's go and try and figure out how to do a super strong uh ground game gotv structure um frankly that might be your best bet um you know you're not going to walk away from your game but uh it might be really wise just to say no one's winning this thing uh we're not winning they're not winning we got to push every vote out uh and and assume that the conservatives are going to have some some real advantages on their voter turnout model as they always do two two to three points on the actual turnout game so while

Carter 27:24

while they may be you know while you may be showing that you're three points ahead head in polling, that may evaporate on actual turnout.

Zain 27:31

Corey, I want to ask you the same question I asked Carter, which is, how are you dealing with this lead? If you can tease out which theory got you this lead. And then Carter, save that thought you just had, because it's a really good one about either party or either campaign acknowledging that they're in a lead in the final days. What's the strategic choice they want to make? But Corey, to that first question, suppose the Liberal lead is validated in the next couple of days with a few tracking polls. Do these theories matter in terms of your actions going forward?

Corey 28:01

Yeah, they absolutely matter. A lead is not a lead is not a lead. And I'd go further, Zane. I'd say it's absolutely essential you understand why it's happening, because otherwise you could make decisions that are incredibly self-defeating.

Corey 28:12

So let's just say it was the theory three that Trudeau actually won the debate. Well, then you want to get that content out there. You want to talk about all of these strong arguments, and you want to look strong. But that cuts against theory two. two, because if theory two is O'Toole could win, this is what moved people into your camp. Then you going out and looking strong and acting as though you're going to win. This thing doesn't help you at all. O'Toole could win. This requires an entirely different strategy.

Corey 28:38

And if it's theory one, you don't bundle any of this. It's a waste of your time. You're going to be talking about an event that fundamentally doesn't matter for people. So you do need to understand what's driving the polls. Otherwise you're just a bit of a nihilist. You're just somebody who's drifting And very amateurishly just picking on things that you have a gut feeling worked or not. So I suspect that they're working very hard to understand why people are moving, where they're moving, how they're moving. Because the alternative is you could absolutely blow yourself up in the final week of the campaign, which you cannot afford to do.

Zain 29:11

Corey, let me ask my final question on this and start with you first, because Carter gave me a few of his thoughts. Either camp, O'Toole or Trudeau, are you acknowledging, you know, let's just say this thing remains tight. They're up in a few. You're up in a few. Is the best strategy to acknowledge that you're in the lead and showcase the poles that say you're in the lead and wave those around and run as a front runner? Or is it to say this thing is tight or run as an underdog? Do you feel like there's a strategic lane that's most advantageous in this final seven-day stretch that we're going to be on come tomorrow?

Corey 29:46

Well, again, it will really depend on what your strategy is. And sometimes you want to look like a winner when

Corey 29:52

you're behind. And sometimes you want to act like you're behind when you're a winner. The

Corey 29:55

The general rule, the default adage, is to act like you're 10 votes behind, right? Because you do want people to feel as though they have to keep their foot on the gas on your team. They've got to go out there and they've got to work hard. And the last thing you want is it's like that episode of The Simpsons where Bart is running for class president and they all go out and they celebrate on the school ground. And then there's two votes for Martin because, you know, even though they're the only two supporters for Martin, they're the only two people who bother to show up to vote. You've got to be careful that you've still got your volunteers motivated for E-Day, that they're doing their get out the vote, that they're doing all of the things you need them to do.

Corey 30:33

However, sometimes you want to feel like a winning campaign. Sometimes that's the momentum you want, the bandwagon you want to build. Other times that's very dangerous. It quite depends on the situation you find yourself in. Carter,

Zain 30:45

Carter, I'm going to ask you a more specific version of that question to round us out. So on O'Toole, what's his best game plan here? To look like he's in front, be tied, behind? If everything is in the margin of error, you get to kind of write your own story and fudge with your own numbers in a sense and say, this is where we're at. What's the most advantageous for O'Toole heading into these final seven days? Is it to show that I'm ahead of Trudeau and we can kind of get this thing done? Is it to show that we're tight, to your point earlier, that you said this thing's really close and advantageous to perhaps both parties? or is to say we're behind and the prime minister we knew this was going to happen he's caught up he's in the lead etc and use that as a motivator what are you thinking is is the right lane for a tool to pick in the last seven days everything

Carter 31:30

everything is possible we

Carter 31:32

we could win we could lose we could be in minority we could be in a majority everything is possible and it's up to you zane it's up to you and your writing to make the difference because we can't take any writings for granted right now the polling is too close it's all shifted around too much even our most secure ridings even ridings in in alberta are are more up in the air than we'd ever seen before so we have to make sure that if if the possible that we wish to achieve is a majority you know a safe stable or whatever was it stable secure majority government if we want that then every riding in the country needs to perform at the highest possible level because

Carter 32:08

because as much as that may be possible the inverse is also possible we don't know what the percentages are we don't know We certainly don't buy the polling at its face. We never have. We're the conservative party, for crying out loud. We know that we don't poll as well as we perform. So the question I have for you, Zane, is how well are you going to perform?

Carter 32:29

Are you going to be able to perform in your riding better than you've ever performed before? Because that's what we're going to need from you, because everything is possible.

Zain 32:38

Stephen Carter with the everything is possible O'Toole line. I like it, Carter. Carter. We're going to leave that segment there of Corey Hogan directs. Move on to our next segment. I

Corey 32:47

I got to tell you, Zane, I didn't feel like I was directing a lot of it. I

Carter 32:52

to let you know. You were totally in control of that thing. Good leadership.

Carter 32:56

We thought you had Kubrick

Zain 32:58

Kubrick potential, but turns out you don't. As

Carter 33:02

As someone who has sat through both of you trying to direct a segment, of course it was way better. Like really, thank you bud. That really helped a lot. Hey, no problem

Corey 33:11

problem and pal yeah

Corey 33:13

there was a structure to it yeah

Carter 33:14

yeah it had structure it had points i could go through there were you know you

Carter 33:17

you were wrong on a bunch of them but that doesn't matter

Corey 33:22

it on to our next segment uh

Zain 33:25

yeah go ahead do you want to do

Zain 33:26

do you know what he

Zain 33:27

he doesn't have a next segment move

Zain 33:28

move on yeah let's go let's

Zain 33:30

let's move on to our next segment strategy of the short strokes guys we are in the final seven days uh why is that funny to you Carter, do you want to explain to our listenership why that's funny to you?

Carter 33:41

I'm familiar with short strokes. Jesus.

Carter 33:48

It's like all my golf game, you perverts.

Zain 33:52

We only have a couple of days left of this campaign. And this is, of course, the time where there is no room for error. Every mistake is magnified. Every decision is magnified. Carter, I remember once calling you in the final seven days of a campaign. Do you remember what you told me? You said every single decision makes it feel like you're Bambi on ice, even if it's a small decision on where to put the comma in an email, because either you're trying to protect a lead, get a lead, you think everything could make or break you. And in some ways, the media, the population, the voters, the pundits don't help in that regard, because they are also looking at every single detail, especially in a volatile race like this. So what I want to do is I want to go through a list of things that we've seen over the course of the past three or four days, between Thursday and now. And

Zain 34:36

I want to ask you whether the decision, either it was a strategic decision that a campaign and a team had to respond to, was should they have taken a more riskier approach, less riskier approach, or the same? Because in these moments, you can kind of go a little bit more risky, which probably gives you greater exposure, but greater upside. Less risky, not worth it. Why did you do that? That's going to haunt you in the coming week ahead. Or, same, this was fine, what you did. Does that make sense in terms of a construct for both of you? Corey, you look a little confused. Is it because you were just tired after directing an entire segment poorly?

Zain 35:14

was reading something else on my other screen. Okay, that's fine. That's okay.

Carter 35:18

I just think it's funny you think we're going to follow your rules.

Zain 35:20

I think it's going to be excellent. I feel like the listeners... What are we doing here? Are there rules to this segment? Yeah,

Carter 35:26

Yeah, there's like more or less or the same. go

Zain 35:29

i'll catch up it's you you were better with the hat on i will just say yeah the

Carter 35:34

the hat off is confusing us all like the hair is it's

Zain 35:38

it's uh yeah and i

Carter 35:39

i see that as the bald man that you're about to become and

Zain 35:44

carter i'm gonna start with you uh the ndp releasing their costed platform they were getting criticized for it aggressively where is your costed platform even on the stage justin trudeau was uh pointing at jagmeet singh being like dude you don't even even have a costed platform uh what are you talking about why are you criticizing me well they've released it saturday night uh close to midnight the ndp released their costed platform 200 billion dollars of spending uh over five years stephen carter should they have been riskier with this in terms of the number less risky because of the exposure that they might put themselves in or leave it the same it was fine everyone knows you're the ndp you're going to spend regardless what do you think well

Carter 36:23

well i just don't understand why you'd fall into the construct of produce your costed platform is it really is it really hurting you um people know that you're going to uh you know tax the rich to pay for your programs why wouldn't you just stick to that to that metric why wouldn't you say there's more than enough money out there in in other people's pockets that you know can fund the programs that we need um maybe not quite that crassly but ultimately there's a very you know cory has said it about a thousand times there's a tremendous support for a

Carter 36:56

a wealth tax there's a tremendous support for increasing corporate taxes why not just say we're going to increase corporate taxes we're going to put taxes on the wealth and wealthy and we're going to pay for whatever programs canadians need um the

Zain 37:10

would have left it you would have left it at that very high level sort of there's enough money in the system to pay for the programs you just watch us sort of thing yeah you're playing you're

Carter 37:20

you're playing in the other guy's message box when you start to cost out your platform you know oh that's too much oh we you know how

Carter 37:27

how dare you well that

Carter 37:30

that people who are voting ndp don't give a shit about the liberals saying it's not costed they don't give a shit about the fiscal responsibility of the conservatives if they did they'd be voting for the other guys don't play in someone else's sandbox it's it's it doesn't make any sense to me so i i was you

Carter 37:48

you know i think that you could be less risky by not releasing the the actual costing and and have a much better potential outcome yeah

Zain 37:57

cory same question to you would you uh more risk less risk uh on this uh or or would you have left it the same what

Corey 38:04

what the ndp did is effectively what stephen carter is recommending but for the fact that they still had to go get the costing because everybody else was getting it they tried i mean they dropped They stopped their costing on a Saturday after the debates four

Corey 38:18

weeks into the campaign. I mean, they obviously don't give a shit about the costing and they were doing whatever they could to bury it. Now, in a funny way, I don't think that was necessary because it's not as though they're creating a more dire fiscal picture than any of the other parties that are out there. But they knew that this was not their strong suit. They knew they didn't want to be arguing the specifics of PBO sanctioned numbers. And so they left it for the week before the election, just so they could say they did it without sweating it too much beyond that. that.

Zain 38:45

Corey, Aaron O'Toole has an opposing view to Justin Trudeau regarding the raising of the flags. Justin Trudeau says, no, we will leave them at half-mast until Indigenous communities across the country are ready. Aaron O'Toole says, by the 30th end of the month, if I so become Prime Minister, those flags will be raised, we'll be proud of Canada, we'll get to work, etc. If you're O'Toole, would you have gone with a bit more, a riskier sort of strategy here, Or was it less risky than what he just did? Or this was fine? This played to what he needed to do? What do you think?

Corey 39:18

I think this was fine. Anything further than that, and you really risk a backlash. This is one of those issues that I suspect there's a lot of Canadians who will agree with Aaron O'Toole, but know that they're not supposed to agree in polite company. But to go any further would really invite a conversation that Aaron O'Toole is just not equipped to have. When you looked at the reconciliation section of the debate, right, if you want to take nothing else from the debate, take this away, which is Justin Trudeau has got pretty good command of this file and Aaron O'Toole's answers are deeply unsatisfactory. So I'm not sure that he wants to spend an awful lot of time talking about reconciliation. This does seem to be in, you know, notwithstanding Justin Trudeau's failures on this issue or shortcomings on this issue, this is very much more in his box than Aaron O'Toole's box. Carter,

Zain 40:04

Carter, same question to you. Would you have gone for a riskier, perhaps more upside approach with O'Toole? Less risky than what he put out there in terms of his stance to raise flags by the end of the month or left to the same like Corey would suggest? chest more

Carter 40:18

more risky i would have said i would have said we're going to raise the flags and fix the water we're going to do it the day after we win the election that'll

Carter 40:26

that'll be our our two priorities we're going to make sure that we're putting the water and we're going to cory's making a face because he knows that they're not if they can't be done that quickly doesn't matter doesn't matter for the raising of the flags to his base is exactly what he needs to say and he can also tie it to the failing of the Trudeau government in the last six years of not actually putting water where it needs to go in the First Nations. So I think

Carter 40:52

think that he could have been more risky with it and gotten a punch in on Trudeau.

Zain 40:57

Corey, I want you to respond to that. We've got a bit of time. What do you think of Carter's strategy? Well, what

Corey 41:02

what I like about it is the attempt to turn it into something substantive, because that That becomes part of that critique of the prime minister as being superficial. And

Corey 41:11

And I think in a way that is what Aaron O'Toole was trying to do during the debate, right? But to say, yeah, you'll lower the flag, but you're not fixing these problems is probably an interesting framing to go harder on. And in that sense, maybe you could go a little bit harder. But it continues to be an issue that I don't think – like if that's your issue, you're probably not voting conservative. I keep coming back to

Carter 41:33

to that. But that's why I think you can just hit the flag because you're hitting the failing. and you're not hitting an actual proposal. So

Carter 41:38

So by saying, look at how he's failed, you're actually re-speaking to your base and re-speaking to people who could shift over from the Liberals.

Zain 41:47

Carter, I'm going to start with you on our next one. In a post-debate scrum or a press conference slash event, Justin Trudeau says that it was wrong to suggest that Quebecers are racist. He said that the question asked by Sashi Curl regarding the discriminatory Bill 21 in Quebec was offensive. If you're Trudeau, would you have taken a greater risk on this, gone more aggressively, less risk on this? Or would you have stayed the same with the response that he had, effectively joining Blanchett and O'Toole in the same category as being like, oh, shaking your fist on this particular file and question on Bill 21? I will acknowledge that O'Toole is the only one that's kind of said he wouldn't intervene with the federal powers should he get them as prime minister, but we can get into the depths of that later. But Carter, on the Trudeau response from what he said, which he said that it's wrong to suggest Quebecers are racist and that the question was offensive, your

Zain 42:40

your take, more risk, less risk, or the same?

Carter 42:42

I think the same. I think this is one of those things that, you know, as much as it confuses me and kind of baffles me, this is on the ground.

Carter 42:52

politics in Quebec. And when everybody in Quebec is moving one way, it is not the time to move another. So if everybody in Quebec is moving against this particular, you know, and saying that this question was off base, you know, this isn't like you can gain steps by being out of step. He needs to be in step because he needs to win Quebec. So, you

Carter 43:15

you know, I'd probably just keep Keep it the way that it was.

Zain 43:19

Corey, what do you think? Trudeau, here's a quote. Quebecers are not racist and it's unfair to make that sweeping categorization. They've made decisions and laws passed by their National Assembly, unquote. Corey, should he have gotten harder on this, perhaps a little bit more exposure, less exposure, or the same?

Corey 43:37

Yeah, I mean, systematic racism exists everywhere except Quebec, apparently, right? I mean, I think, can

Corey 43:44

can we just talk about the substance before the politics for a moment here? I

Corey 43:48

think it's deeply, deeply irritating to me that everybody was immediately going to jump to Quebec. Quebec is not racist. Quebec couldn't possibly be racist. It's wrong to say that Quebec is racist. I think one of the things we've really had to come to grips with over the past year and a half, two years in particular with Black Lives Matter and all of that is that there is racism everywhere, you know, big and small that needs to be addressed. And we walk through our lives in so many different ways, thinking about things through one lens and ignoring the fact that if you looked at them through a very different but also legitimate lens, it is a clearly racist policy. And I'm not saying this is unique to Bill 21, but for fuck's sake, people, this is a bill that says you've got to put aside your culture and your heritage and your religion if you want to advance in Quebec's civil society. Are we really going to pretend that there's not any elements to that that are troubling? It is so, I mean, it's hard to not come to the conclusion that all of our leaders have within them this ability to be utterly disingenuous cowards when there's votes at play here.

Zain 44:50

Including Jagmeet Singh, let's be totally clear.

Corey 44:52

clear. All of them.

Corey 44:53

All of them, right? But that's the way the winds are blowing in Quebec. And if you look at the Quebec media right now and the conversation around Saatchi Curl's comments and Bill 21 and how it's playing, it's like wall-to-wall coverage. Yeah, tell us more about that.

Zain 45:06

that. I know you've

Corey 45:06

you've been following it a bit. What

Corey 45:08

have you seen? People are going mental about this. Everybody and their dog is giving a statement about it. They're saying that this was wrong, this was wrong, this was wrong. The PQ is now trying to fundraise off of this, talking about it being contempt from the rest of Canada. They wouldn't say rest of Canada, they would just say Canada. But people are really dialed up on this thing. And of course, nobody is willing to go on to the other side of this. All of the federal leaders have jumped on board and said, no, this was a bad question.

Corey 45:35

Was this really an illegitimate, inappropriate question? No. I want to ask you to that. This

Carter 45:40

This is a risk game. This is a risk game in this discussion point, and you're pretending like there's no risk in taking a different position. The risk of taking the position you're describing, which I happen to agree with. I happen to agree with you, but the risk of taking that position is far and away outside of what any federal leader who wants to be in government would ever do. Let

Zain 46:02

me ask you a question and a strategy I've been putting out there over the last couple of days with my other media gigs that are – Yeah,

Carter 46:09

Yeah, all the media gigs. All of them. You take Corey and my best shit, and then you say it.

Zain 46:14

I haven't – just so I know, there's nothing on this episode that I can repeat. Jagmeet Singh is not going to be winning shit in Quebec. Why does the guy with the turban who in his home – in Quebec could not be a judge, could not be the speaker of the National Assembly? Could not be a fucking police officer with the religious sort of, you know, participation

Zain 46:38

participation that he has. Why is he, right, from both the moral and strategic level, not saying fuck you to 21, making amends on his position from the 2019 election and drawing daylight with the prime minister on true progressive values, which he desperately needs to do in other parts of the country? I've been saying this for a while. I don't know if you guys would agree that that that strategic sort of pathway exists for him. But for me, that's the most disappointing one on 21. To be really honest, I all these fucking turncoats like this one really makes my blood boil. But like for Jagmeet Singh, like the historical and strategic upside here, I think is so crystal clear.

Corey 47:17

Well, it is, of course, not ancient history when the NDP had a majority of the seats in Quebec. And I think that's the problem, Zane, if you want to get right down to it. There is still this universe, this desire. They're fickle. And

Zain 47:31

And let's be clear, they're not going to vote for you, Jagmeet Singh, because

Corey 47:34

your name's Jagmeet Singh, and you look like Jagmeet Singh. thing

Corey 47:37

that's i don't think that's true across the board and i do want to be careful that we're not painting a broad brush of everybody in quebec and everybody in quebec's feelings sure i

Corey 47:45

i think that that that is why you're doing the walk down now

Carter 47:48

now you're doing the exact same thing

Carter 47:50

i'm not justin listen to what you're saying justin just

Corey 47:53

just because a law is passed in quebec does not mean using the notwithstanding clause by the way using the notwithstanding clause yeah but does not mean it's the opinion of everybody in quebec right there are going to be pockets in quebec that have severe problems. I can acknowledge

Corey 48:07

But they're not getting voiced. I guess I agree with you. I think that if you are looking at trying to create a position that makes you more progressive than the prime minister, and maybe one where you can take a bit more of like a righteous stand, that seems like a pretty reasonable one for Singh to do. But it's just one where everybody has done the risk calculation said not worth it. This is kind of a classic. So I said, I want to talk about the substance first. Yeah, I did want to make this point about the politics. Before I jump off it, But I will say I

Corey 48:35

think this is problematic that the leaders are not willing to at least address some of the downside of Bill 21, even if you want to say on net it is necessary to protect the Quebec language, which I don't agree with. But at least like don't pretend to me that there's no downsides, right, that there's no negatives here, that there's not things that we need to consider about the effects it could have on people based on where they came from, based on who they are. As

Zain 48:58

As you kind of tout inclusive – an inclusive Canada, multiculturalism, integration, you talk to Muslim groups and Sikh groups and Jewish groups across the country touting to them that this is a country of opportunity and celebrating multiculturalism and saying they'll do anything and Islamophobia is not – and then here, being like, oh yeah, we're not going to touch that. We're not going to do anything. Yeah.

Corey 49:23

There's a different culture code in Quebec. Secularism is a very big deal in Quebec. I understand all of these things. But I think from a federal leader point of view, and this is getting to the politics of it, it is fundamentally a classic prisoner's dilemma.

Corey 49:37

They all know that it's not great, right? But if they stick together, they don't have to worry about the really severe downsides that might occur to any single one of them here. So they'll just tut tut and say, oh, what an inappropriate question. I think in private moments, I'd be surprised if Singh thought it was an inappropriate question. I think maybe even Trudeau would wonder whether it was an inappropriate question. I certainly don't think O'Toole would think it was an appropriate question. But they don't have the guts to say that because Quebec is a quarter of the seats, and the conversation in Quebec has really run in one direction. And

Corey 50:10

And that's just the reality of it, and that's the reality of politics. It's disappointing, but nobody wants to be in a position where they're throwing Quebec away with one week left to go in the election. Someone

Zain 50:19

Someone on Twitter said, I think had a great line, and I'm sorry, I don't remember who it was, so I can't credit them. But it's the, you know, if Legault says jump, everyone says how high election in some ways in Quebec. And I think this is very much to that point, you know, because he comes out blasting it. Blanchet clearly, you know, knew exactly there was red meat for him to go on in that debate. But Corey, to your point then, was this from the pure politics of it, and I appreciate you got to talk a bit about the substance, should the prime minister have actually, was he fine? Was it the same, the answer you'd give? Or would you have added more exposure to kind of pander even more to Quebec from a purely political level? Well,

Corey 50:59

you know, again, it's a prisoner's dilemma. And there's a desire to stay with the pack.

Corey 51:04

And maybe prisoner's dilemma is not even the right one. But everybody is minimizing their risk by staying in a herd here. But what I do find interesting is when you look at the 2015 election, and you look at the 2015 French language debate, the way that Justin Trudeau really separated himself from Tom Mulcair was the stance that he took against the niqab ban.

Corey 51:25

that helped him in Quebec. That

Corey 51:27

That fueled a bit of a virtuous cycle that he was then able to propagate himself forward throughout the rest of the country, because his numbers in Quebec held or grew, and Mulcair's declined. And the liberals always had that ability, always

Corey 51:41

always have had that ability to be the champion of minority classes, right? The Charter of Rights and Freedoms gives them that natural edge. And I just, I think, I

Corey 51:53

I understand why he did it from a pure politics point of view. I still think it's fundamentally a little disappointing. I would be disappointed with myself if I didn't.

Zain 52:02

Corey, I'm going to start with you with our next one, which was around O'Toole. Carter, you want to jump in? I'm just,

Carter 52:06

I'm still here. here no

Carter 52:07

no i said no that's okay you go ahead guys be able to really let them know that i'm i'm still here okay

Carter 52:14

excellent carter thank you uh

Zain 52:16

uh no we'll we'll come back to you at some point um yeah yeah maybe yeah we we might come back we'll see we'll see how it looks carter i'm gonna start i'm gonna keep it with you um o'toole in an interview saying that his conservative party of canada is a different conservative party they're a big tent party and no we're not at at all worried about the PPC. In his response, would you feel like that's fine? That's reasonable? Or would you have actually, you know, done a different path, perhaps exposing yourself a bit more, done a less riskier version of that? Or this was a totally reasonable response from when asked about the emerging threat that in certain polls is a double digit and surging PPC?

Corey 52:55

think I probably would have broadened the point and said we should all be concerned about a surging PPC because they are they're running on misinformation and myth and that will damage our country in the long term and in the short term it will only help Justin Trudeau and you don't actually even need to connect the dots that it's about electoral politics you basically say it's a misinformation campaign and it's playing into Justin Trudeau and you don't need to be too over the top about it but I think there's a way you can make the argument that the PPC is just bad for Canada so yes of course you're concerned about the PPC has nothing to do with electoral politics it It has everything to do with the fact that you've got Maxime Bernier out there spitting people up with lies and getting them worked up about misinformation and InfoWars bullshit.

Zain 53:38

Carter, same question to you. The O'Toole response to the PPC, we're a Big Ten party, not at all concerned. Corey would perhaps add a bit more exposure to that by talking about it from a political, maybe less exposure, but more upside to your first answer, Carter. What would you say?

Carter 53:56

The PPC does not represent any ideology. There's this myth that they are the far right. In fact, what they are is the extremely misinformed. They are the group of people who feel the least connected to Canadian society. That is a failure of all of our parties. I am reaching out. I am saying that the big party, Conservative Party, can represent those who wish to believe and understand what is truly happening in our country. I'm not out here telling them half-truths, mistruths. I'm actually telling them the truths. And if that pushes them away, that's okay. They're leaving the Liberals. They're leaving the New Democrats. They're people who don't

Carter 54:37

don't see themselves fitting into Canadian society, and that is a failure on all of our parts.

Zain 54:43

Carter, I'm going to ask the last one to you and start with you. Trudeau saying he's got no regrets for the election call during the pandemic. It's been something that he's been asked over and over again. He says once again, no, absolutely no regrets for calling this election. I'm going to read you the quote here. No, absolutely not. This is a time when Canadians should be get a very clear chance on who they want to end this pandemic. So a bit of a shift in his language, who they want to kind of end this pandemic once and for all. Carter, would you have gone with a more riskier approach here, perhaps exposing yourself more, a less riskier sort of like, you know, we're in it now, whatever. Or was this fine? This tone of absolutely not. I've got no regrets whatsoever. We're powering through. We're going to, you know, and kind of spinning it in that regard. I

Carter 55:26

I think I'd keep it at the exact same level of risk. I mean, I might add in the economic recovery. But, you

Carter 55:33

you know, I would say that when I was elected in 2019, no one had envisioned this type of situation.

Carter 55:40

Now we're two years into it. It doesn't look like it's going away. I mean, the end the pandemic language, I'm not sure any of us are buying into this ending COVID thing at this stage. I think managing COVID for the you know, for as long as it's here, is probably the way to go. And he could have been a little bit more clear on on that type of language. But he'd He'd be nuts, absolutely nuts to say, yeah, enormous fuck up. Cannot believe how bad I made, how bad I called this. He'll be saying that if he does not get his majority government and he's turfed out in three to four months as the leader of the Liberal Party. That's when he'll be able to say, I made a mistake when he's fighting for his life in a leadership review. Do

Carter 56:25

have leadership reviews in the Liberals? If their name is Trudeau, I don't think they do, do they? If their name is Trudeau, they just keep them forever? I think that's what they do.

Corey 56:34

Well, technically, Pierre Trudeau is still the leader of the Liberal Party because he's got this immortal thing like in North Korea. Is

Corey 56:41

what you think is going

Carter 56:42

going on? I'd forgotten, and they just passed it down to the sun. I remember now. Actually,

Zain 56:45

Actually, no, no, this isn't the sun. This is just a younger-looking hologram up here.

Zain 56:51

you new? You must be new here. It's

Carter 56:53

shame that they couldn't program the hologram to speak better.

Zain 56:58

her uh yeah they they i'll i won't go there uh cory absolutely no no regrets whatsoever this is a time when canadians should get a very clear chance on who they want to end this pandemic you know one observation i'll make before i ask you the same question cory is that trudeau's line is now about ending the pandemic whereas o'toole's lane from the beginning of this campaign is about the recovery plan i don't know if there's anything there i just thought i'd throw that out there in in terms of one saying this election is about ending the pandemic. The other one is saying this is about the recovery. You know, there's obvious time horizons to that that makes one think of. But I'm curious, from your perspective, on the question that he's been getting constantly, the answer of no, absolutely not, no regrets. Would you have gone with a riskier approach, a less riskier approach, or this version is fine?

Corey 57:48

Well, this ties back to our conversation earlier about you need to know what message track you're on. You need to know what's actually moving the votes right now. So let's just take as a hypothesis, which could be entirely wrong, that part of the reason for a bounce is that people are saying O'Toole could potentially win this thing. In that case, maybe a little humility is called for here. Maybe you want people to feel like there is a little bit of regret there. And maybe the regret you frame is not that you're having an election, but you say, yeah, I do have one very significant regret here, and it's that I didn't make the case for this election. I believe this is a very consequential election. We are coming out of a pandemic. It's largely been managed as a result of the Liberal government in a very able fashion. We're coming out better than a lot of other countries. But yeah, I deeply regret that I wasn't able to explain to Canadians just how important this moment is. And I'm hoping that I can spend the next week explaining to them how important this moment is. And if there feels like there's a little bit of a stench of death on that, if you actually need people to think that O'Toole could win this, that would actually be a pretty reasonable strategy and a pretty reasonable way to talk about those things. So I don't know, because I don't have access to their polling. I don't have a strong enough understanding as to what's driving these numbers at this point. But it is quite possibly not the approach you want to take. Because if the arrogance of the liberal approach is in many ways what there was a backlash to in the first bit, and they're just trying to get it over there, you don't want to jump back into that. You don't want to be acting arrogant again, a little too cocksure after you just barely started getting polls that showed you in the lead again.

Zain 59:20

Right, right. We'll leave that segment there. Let's move it on to our next segment. Our next segment, Stephen Carter, I know you're excited for it. It's the elevator ride campaign strategy. Here it is. We are bringing it back. And you know what? We're bringing back one of the characters that's been on the elevator just because we have to. And it's a bit of a check-in for him. So Stephen Carter, once again, if you're new to the show, folks, Stephen Carter and Corey Hogan, they go to Stephen Carter's legal appointments together. uh carter often is uh under the microscope from a judicial and legal perspective yeah this time of course for his disparaging comments against flair airlines so uh carter is

Zain 59:55

is uh is meeting with with his lawyers uh flair airlines the public transit of the sky uh carter is meeting with his um his lawyers uh he's on p5 parks uh finds the elevator uh and of course an individual individuals is just about to enter, said, oh, wait, hold that elevator. And you guys do. Corey pushes the button and stepping into the elevator is Jagmeet Singh. And

Corey 1:00:21

And Jagmeet Singh, it says, Stephen, I

Zain 1:00:23

I heard the podcast episode. I remember our last elevator ride together. You told me to tell the entire country that I want to be the moral compass of Canada and that I'm not running to win this election. I haven't done that. And I have a question for you. I'm stopping the rise. The rise is just not happening for me. You know, it was going from 16 to 17 to 20, but I'm stuck at 20. I'm stuck at 20 percent. And I have the exact fear that everyone in my orange shoes has had in previous elections, that Justin Trudeau is going to steal a quarter of my votes, get a majority government, and I'm going to be rendered useless and irrelevant. So, Stephen Carter, I need to ask you first again, I've got seven days left. What do I do now? Now, I've told people that I'm not going to prop up a conservative government so they can vote with their heart. I sense some danger in that. I've told people that Justin Trudeau and I are different people fundamentally. So, you know, maybe there's some merit in that. I've told them that he's failed on true progress and that he's cynical and he doesn't execute. So maybe there's something in that. But what do I need to do, Carter? I'm at 20 percent. Maybe I've stalled out. But my game now is, can I just keep my 20? What do I do to keep my 20 percent, Stephen? And how do I how do I ensure that people don't leave me for Justin Trudeau with seven days left?

Carter 1:01:42

Two things. Number one, it's going to be a minority government. People want you to be there to be the controlling interest of the minority government. Number two, show some balls on Quebec, for God's sake. If you can't stand up and say that there's racism in Quebec, then who can? And it doesn't mean that everybody's a racism or racist. Racism exists systematically because of people not standing up and saying that it's wrong. And you can't be the one who doesn't stand up and say this is wrong. What is happening in Quebec is wrong. And it's one of the reasons, just one of the reasons, that the NDP is absolutely nowhere there. So you have nothing to lose. Stand up, say what's right, and it will help you across the rest of the country. On top of that, just double down on everything. You go as hard as you can on every issue and don't take any politically popular positions. When you're talking about taxing the wealthy, yeah, fuck that, we're going to tax the wealthy. You're going to tax corporations, yeah, fuck that, we're going to tax corporations. If you can't say, yeah, fuck that, in every policy, then you're not running at all. And in terms of losing votes to the liberals, you need everybody to understand, understand if votes switch then that means that the liberals get the majority if votes stick that means that the ndp is going to be there to hold the liberals to account so

Zain 1:03:08

so you're telling me carter that i i tell her no i do more than telegraph i say this is going to be a minority government i get explicit with people and that we need to be in the mix and i acknowledge that at 20 i'm not not going to get a 15% bump between now and election day to make me viable for the driver's seat to become the next prime minister. Is that clear? Yes,

Carter 1:03:31

Yes, fuck that. Because I was right three weeks ago when I told you this in the elevator last time and start listening to me. Because you weren't going to form the government then and you're not going to form the government now.

Zain 1:03:42

Corey, what do you think? What should I do? Is Carter right? Right.

Corey 1:03:47

I mean, so rarely is he right. Here's the thing. There's maybe some logic to Stephen's approach on Quebec from a purely political point of view. It's too late for that. You've made your bed. You've made your comments here. This is an issue that Quebec and the rest of Canada cannot see eye to eye on because they're looking at it from entirely different lenses. And there does need to be more of an appreciation from the rest of Canada that Quebec does look at this fundamentally different. That doesn't mean you should indulge that viewpoint without any kind kind of critical eye, just as we wouldn't want Quebecers to look at issues in the rest of Canada without indulging a critical eye the other way as well, right? That's what friends do for each other. They help each other see their blind spots. I think you should have made a comment more along those lines. And you should have said, listen, I understand some of the logic of Bill 21. I do. But let's take a bit of a gut check here. And I'm asking you to look at it through the lens of somebody else, somebody with perhaps my lived experience, and what that means. And everything thing that, you know, my friend Zane Velji was saying earlier, could not be the Speaker of the Assembly, could not be a police officer. And that's really troubling to me, because my faith matters to me and my cultural heritage matters to me. But I think that's done. I think that's over. Your question is really about what's going on in the next week. What are we going to do in the next week to try to close this thing out strong?

Corey 1:05:03

And the answer is, you

Corey 1:05:05

you can't at this point. You know, you're sort of out of time. It didn't catch on. You're at 20%. The Liberals are are at 30%, what you want to do is you want to narrow down your efforts and you want to get the 30 seats that was probably the reasonable upside that you always had, the 40 seats maybe, and just do it. This is not going to be the campaign for you. So at this point, what you don't want to do is in pursuit of the campaign you didn't get, blow up the campaign that you have. You've got to be careful. You've got to be smart. You've got to not run against yourself here. Take those seats. Get some modest gains. You had a good campaign. It was on top of a good campaign in 2019 you could be somebody like jack layton who runs multiple campaigns and really defines your party for a generation and you're doing a pretty good job but now is not the time and i'm not saying surrender i'm far from that i'm saying don't be crazy don't take the steven carter swing for the fences approach what you want to do right now is make sure you've got a strong contingent a strong caucus from which you can build even stronger carter

Zain 1:06:04

carter you want to respond

Carter 1:06:05

we're not swinging for the fences here we're trying to be the the goopy bit in the bit in the oreo cookie like that's you

Corey 1:06:11

you just said you wanted to go to war with quebec on yeah

Carter 1:06:14

yeah well why not because you know i

Carter 1:06:17

was just nice you you have the exact same thing with just less offensive language we're

Zain 1:06:21

we're gonna leave that segment there that segment of course that segment of course brought to us by flair airlines flair airlines we take you for a ride uh let's move it on to our final segment our final segment what

Carter 1:06:34

are we gonna do this

Zain 1:06:36

they should really hire me they should hire me cory i'm so glad we got this real sponsor to play airlines and

Corey 1:06:40

and not a real sponsor okay

Zain 1:06:41

okay thank you uh our over under and our lightning round cory i'm gonna start with you cory hogan in this particular election over

Corey 1:06:49

over go next one under

Carter 1:06:52

cory couldn't be more wrong

Corey 1:06:57

you got another question i

Zain 1:06:58

i i want to actually see if it lines up now i have to i have to ask it i thought it's a pretty good in this particular election advanced voting overrated underrated

Zain 1:07:07

over fucking under why

Carter 1:07:11

because the more people get out early those votes those votes are going to be there for sure and you never know what's going to happen in the last few days of the the campaign.

Corey 1:07:22

Because at this point, everybody thinks all the universe hinges on advance voting. I just don't believe that's true. Carter,

Zain 1:07:27

Carter, there's some think pieces, pundit pieces, analyst pieces on the fact that the Legault endorsement for O'Toole could be a backlash, that if it showcases that O'Toole is willing to, you know, write a blank check for Quebec, it could hurt him in other parts of the country, the 905, BC, etc, elsewhere that he needs That line of attack, the Legault endorsement backlash for O'Toole, overrated or underrated in your mind, Carter?

Carter 1:07:54

Overrated. I said from the beginning it wasn't going to have much impact. I think that the backlash is going to be corresponding to

Carter 1:08:02

to the potential uplift in Quebec, and there is no uplift in Quebec, ergo there is no backlash. Great.

Zain 1:08:09

Same question to you. The backlash, the narrative of a potential backlash, the Legault endorsement for O'Toole, overrated or underrated?

Corey 1:08:18

there's this backlash narrative is silly the where it will be felt strongest will be in the most conservative areas of the country where the conservatives are most likely to win by a bit notwithstanding the fact there's now ppc's you know getting seven eight percent too bad they'll only win crowfoot by what 60 50 usual 80 so it's it's not a huge huge deal and in fact i i continue to think that the benefit of it is that it props them up it helps them have a bit of a floor in in Quebec. The Conservatives are not huge contenders in Quebec, but it will allow them a certain number of seats, not guaranteed, but with strong confidence.

Zain 1:08:54

Corey, I'm going to stick with you. Selina Cesar Chavannes, former MP, liberal MP, then independent MP, saying today that after reading the excerpt of the JWR book that she is voting Conservative, she is going to be voting for the Conservative Party, overrated or underrated in your mind, the political impact of her statement, and perhaps paired with the Jody Wilson-Raybould book, which we can talk about on Thursday, what do you take from your initial hunch on her voting preference for this election? I

Corey 1:09:27

At this point, you have to sort of cost in the fact that she does not support justice

Corey 1:09:30

justice and freedom, don't you? it's just sort of a given and this in many ways seems like it's um almost

Corey 1:09:38

almost too calculating too cynical you know it would have made more sense if she said i'm voting ndp is my read of her politics maybe that's inaccurate but um yeah i don't think it's gonna have a huge impact carter now the book itself well

Zain 1:09:55

well it'll be out but it'll be out i believe is it tuesday i I believe it's out Tuesday. We'll talk about it Thursday. Carter, on this particular note, the former MP saying that she read the excerpt, she cried, and she's going to be voting for the Conservatives. The political impact of that, that that could have, overrated or underrated? Person

Carter 1:10:13

Person who couldn't get elected as an MP saying that they're not going to vote for the party that they used to serve, totally

Carter 1:10:18

totally overrated. Who the fuck cares? No impact at all. Go away.

Zain 1:10:23

Carter, I'm going to ask the last question to you. Seven days left. After we record Sunday night, more than likely most people listen to this Monday morning. Seven days. Who do you want to be T-minus seven days to Election Day? Which of the federal leaders, that is not Annamie Paul or Yves-François Blanchet, Carter, do you want to be T-minus seven days?

Carter 1:10:44

I think I probably want to be Trudeau at this stage.

Carter 1:10:50

feels like things are coming

Carter 1:10:52

coming back to him.

Corey 1:10:56

want to be anna de carlo fuck

Corey 1:10:59

you who is anna de carlo please communist she's the leader of the communist party of canada marxist leninist of course we all want to be here together we will be here together collectively

Zain 1:11:09

yeah collectively we will be we will be here we'll leave it there that's a wrap on episode thank you cory for by the way that that excellent ending just really adding the burst of energy that we needed we will leave it there that's a wrap on episode 943 of the strategist. My name is Zane Belger. With me as always, Stephen Carter, Corey Hogan, and we'll see you next time.

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