Transcript
Zain
0:02
This is a strategist episode 824. My name is Zain Velji with me as always, Corey Hogan, Stephen Carter. Guys, what's going on?
Corey
0:11
was only a week ago that Donald Trump's taxes were released, Zain. Since then, we've had the debate.
Corey
0:17
We've had, well, Melania Trump's comments on tape has just been lost. lost and a pretty significant COVID, you know, diagnosis, plus like a dozen others in the Republican Party, which is just being torn apart by this disease right now.
Corey
0:35
You know, I feel bad for the
Zain
0:38
in the New York Times, who's probably spent months putting this thing together, researching it, doing the legal comb over, were high-fiving themselves last week saying that they just nailed the October surprise. prize well jokes on you because uh because kovid had a different plan and uh kovid might also win a pulitzer cory it's called a pulitzer just saying i'm not changing how i pronounce it it's pulitzer you
Corey
1:03
you cut me off before i could mention i also had 140 point night in fantasy football so oh
Corey
1:08
well there you go did
Zain
1:09
did you have lamar is lamar on your team is that no
Corey
1:11
no lamar is not on my team it was just an all-around team performance though really good across the board and everybody going ahead of their projections by a good 5, 10 points. Do
Carter
1:19
Do you guys want to hear about how I was outside again today? No,
Zain
1:22
No, no, that's totally fine. That's absolutely, absolutely fine. I cannot wait till winter comes so we can stop having these conversations. No, I'm also outside in the winter.
Zain
1:33
I'm sure you'll find something to do outside. I don't know what people do. Yeah,
Corey
1:35
Yeah, but the good news for us in those cases, Carter, is at least we can imagine you dying of exposure. That's true. We've got a little bit of something to look forward to.
Zain
1:44
imagine carter outside like the revenant trying to look for his oscar that no one wants to give him just really just oscar bait at the mountain trails by the way before we get into it uh this should be its own segment cory uh but dave is making a bit of a resurgence online can we talk about this because i have to be honest as much as it's a it's a joke for us i have not seen dave so
Corey
2:10
i mean i feel like you have in the sense that we it's all That's all we talk about whenever the microphones aren't on. Well, it's true. I mean, we've
Zain
2:15
we've seen Dave, but have we really seen Dave? You know, that's what I mean.
Corey
2:19
I'm just so excited that I feel like we brought this back into the zeitgeist somehow. We put it out into the universe, and the universe said yes. If
Carter
2:27
If we hadn't, imagine everybody would be talking about Weekend at Bernie's. I mean, what a letdown. Oh, that's true. What a letdown. It would be embarrassing for everybody. But we brought them to Dave.
Zain
2:35
We did bring them to Dave. I want to talk more about that. I'm sure we'll find a way to shoehorn it into this podcast. But let's move it on to our first segment. our first segment i see dead people uh cory steven oh let's ouch it's what is it two on the nose is it two on the nose that we have a picture of 25 people in the rose garden and mathematically if the circle is large enough that at least one of them might die cory uh let's talk about this because you're right where we had trump's tax returns last week and uh you know in between Between that, we had a debate, let's not forget about that, that we covered on You the People, a chaotic, insane debate. And now Donald Trump is diagnosed with COVID. So many ramifications, political, policy, governance. But let's start here. And Stephen, maybe I'll go to you first. Where is Trump getting COVID landing for you? How is that registering for you? Where are you kind of sitting on the dial right now in terms of what that kind of feels? Are you enraged? Are you upset? sets are you just like yelling at him for hypocrisy i just want to kind of know where you're at with this before we jump into all the political stuff that we usually get into i
Carter
3:44
i i'm actually at the what's next stage like it's it it just moves on it's you know like the leaked tax returns were so big right and uh you know everything everything that has happened along the way is so huge and now we're like the debate the debate was a gong show right like it it was horrible and and it's like it never happened it's like it never happened at all and i'm focused 24
Carter
4:09
24 7 pulling up twitter every second i can to see how trump's doing how everybody else is doing who
Carter
4:16
who the next republican is that's going to get diagnosed with with covid um you know how many of them have comorbidities i mean almost all of them do i mean chris christie i mean good god God, man. And how is Rudy Giuliani not gotten it? But, you know, these are the things that I'm watching. This is this is the biggest thing that has happened this season of let's elect a president. And I can't imagine anything topping it. But we're still 30 days away from the finale. So you got to know that they're going to ramp it up. And this is actually how I'm feeling. I feel like something
Carter
4:50
something else has to drop because this is what has happened. Every three days there is something new. And, you know, we've talked about it in the podcast a whole bunch. I've said the only way that Trump gets out of a negative news cycle is starting a new negative news cycle. How does he like this has to be a thing because recovery isn't necessarily complete. Right. Like I'm in the pool. I'm officially predicting that Donald Trump will not die. He's going to survive this. So what does that mean in the future? Right. What does that mean? Well, now it
Corey
5:22
it means he's going to die because
Carter
5:25
You guys got to stop making it out like every prediction I make is not true. It's not. He's going to survive this. I've said it. Write it down. Write it down, as I've said many times.
Carter
5:38
He's going to be fine. We
Zain
5:40
We will hold your feet to the fire if you're wrong, by the way, just to let you know. We'll do an entire episode on that. There's no way.
Carter
5:44
way. There's no way. He's going to be fine.
Zain
5:46
You know what's interesting, Carter? You're talking about this in reality television terms. Have you finally bought into the fact that this is like election 2020 produced by Mark Burnett? Like, have you actually bought in that this is this is how what you're what we're going to be witnessing? Well,
Carter
6:00
Well, let's be honest. I mean, elections for quite some time have been many reality television shows where, you know, the media play their role. The candidates each play their role and the voter watches it with some sort of entertainment,
Carter
6:12
entertainment, benign entertainment value. I think, you know, it's not very exciting, but they watch it anyways because, you know, people could hurt each other. this is totally different this is real reality tv it is entertaining it has uh life and death stakes in a way that we've never seen you know like you know the survivor episode that ends with someone stepping on a jellyfish will he or she make it i mean that's where we are right now donald trump stepped on the jellyfish and now we're wondering will he or will he not make it and what happens then i mean who's not following this who's not interested in this who doesn't think this is the best reality television that Mark Burnett has ever produced, because that's what it feels like. It doesn't have anything vaguely resembling normal ebbs and flows of electoral politics. The debate was a great example. And now this COVID diagnosis, also a great example. This is not real. This is reality television.
Zain
7:09
Corey, same question to you that I asked Carter, where have you landed? Because like, just before we get into the ramifications of the political strategy. Where have you landed on Trump getting COVID? Are you like, like I teed up with Carter enraged? Are you are you pissed off at his hypocrisy? Are you? Are you kind of feeling bad for the guy? Where do you kind of land so far?
Corey
7:29
Yeah, no, look, my first reaction was schadenfreude. I was I was feeling like good this this guy sort of deserves it. And I knew I should feel bad about a human being getting sick. But if I'm being honest, I didn't feel bad that he was being sick i think he's a monster and i think he has wrecked a lot of lives and he's resulted in a lot of people dying and he's kind of threatened the very fabric of our society but you know as it's gone on my my kind of you
Corey
7:57
know schadenfreude has been sort of replaced with incredulity um this this is managed in just the most bizarre way a way that's left me just exhausted every day they tell us he's great and doing better than the day before when he had problems x y and z except
Corey
8:12
every day it's the first time we're hearing about the problems the day before and the day before they told us he was doing great so it becomes basically impossible to know what is real right now i don't even trust so he went on a little joy ride in his car i'm sure we'll
Corey
8:25
we'll talk about that but i don't even trust that he was feeling better than like none of what they're telling us is adding up, as many, many physicians have noted. And at this point, I think that my overriding sense is just like confusion and lost. One
Carter
8:46
One of the plot devices in this story is not truth, Corey. I mean, they have lied to us every day. Why would we expect them to start telling the truth today? And so they cleaned up a couple of things because a physician shouldn't stand in front of the uh the the nation's press and lie to them directly and i think that he figured that out but you know here's here's where we are um truth
Carter
9:09
truth is not in the in the script of this story so let's not expect that the truth is going to be one of the elements that we should be seeing so
Corey
9:17
so let's carry your metaphor forward because if every day there's a reveal that the
Corey
9:21
the day before wasn't real in a tv show you're going to lose interest you're going to become pretty nihilist about it because Because it's like, well, I'll just see where this all ends. Wake me up when the season's over, so to speak. Because none of the plot points matter because none of them actually travel from day to day. And I think that's where I feel right now. It's just like I can see in macro what a huge deal this is. I can imagine the ramifications of scenario A, Trump dies. Scenario B, Trump's very sick. Scenario C, no problem at all. But I can't actually see moment to moment what scenario we're in. And I don't actually trust any of my senses about reading where we are, because it's just it's misinformation to a degree that even for them is deeply irresponsible.
Zain
10:04
I'm glad we started here, because I think it's quite revealing that underneath the surface of another political saga, in this long arc of this election, there is so many complicated emotional feelings that people are having so many complicated outcomes. I don't want to get into an episode of scenario planning, but how about we talk about some of the strategic outcomes and strategic choices that have been made. And let's start with what Corey mentioned, which is the medical team. And what do you guys make of this medical team coming out, almost playing to the audience of one? We've talked about the audience of one so many times. Dr. Conley playing to the audience of one. And then having Mark Meadows, the chief of staff, going off the record saying, of course, then being outed by The New York Times for doing it so poorly, but then saying that, you know, he's actually quite concerned about the health. Carter, give us your strategic comments of like what they've done. And do you think it's a strategic choice they have made as to how they're playing this? Or do you feel like this is something different? Let's talk about the actual sort of medical communications at first. first
Carter
11:12
well let's just look at the the staging of it right like how many doctors were there i think there were 10 i didn't count but there was more than i thought there should have been that's a lot of white coats standing around one man uh that when when covid is now main
Zain
11:26
main doctor flanked by five on each side right i think that's
Zain
11:29
what the state setup was yeah yeah
Carter
11:30
yeah it was ridiculous because what you've got i think it's seven million americans who've now been diagnosed with covid how many of of them have an 11 physician team um zero well one now one one guy has an 11 physician team it's tone deaf it's it's out of step now it would have been bad in regular times but in an election time when you need those people to feel an empathy towards you um and and vote for you uh because the november 3rd election date isn't changing um it just it's bad theater like they just don't seem to think through the actual theatrics of of their choices and because of that i think um it it played really badly and we can see another example of it with with the uh with the uh you know the the what is it the beast the their limousine that they were driving around today you
Carter
12:20
know it's just bad stagecraft um so the fact that he's gotten covid is bad right like that was his bad choices that led to this outcome the how he's behaved after getting covid is even worse right now people are starting to point out all the people that he's put at risk not in the macro which again in the we've talked about this before sometimes things in the macro don't make sense but when he pays 750 in taxes that makes sense to me if he paid a million dollars in taxes i wouldn't know right is that too much or too little or whatever it might have been too little it might have been too much i don't know but but 750 i know exactly how much money that is and it's the same thing with 11 doctors i know exactly how many how that works i know how he's putting people at risk um works because instead of it being he's put 200 or 350 million americans at risk he's now putting a secret service agent at risk a nurse at risk someone did his hair someone did his makeup right all of those people are now people individuals who he individually put at risk, and it's far more tangible and far more easier for the general population to understand.
Zain
13:32
Corey, maybe I'll ask the same question a different way to you, since I suspect you might agree with Carter. Anything redeemable with the medical team strategy? And I see you shaking your head, so maybe I made an assumption. Go ahead. I
Corey
13:43
I don't agree with Carter at all. I mean, I disagree entirely. How many Americans get a palace, a helicopter, nuclear codes? I mean, he's the president and unlike in our nation americans expect him to get the absolute best i think they would be more angry if they got the sense that his care was being half measured in any way shape or form now when you start talking about makeup and you start talking about joy rides with the secret service steven's
Corey
14:08
steven's got a huge point but when you talk about physicians and the level of care that the president of the united states gets there's no question in my mind that is the expectation that frankly that's my expectation and i'm not even an american no
Carter
14:20
no No, but there's something there's something about he had a heart attack and it's unfortunate. But the other thing is that he's put himself in this position. This is a self-inflicted wound. And he's now got 11 guys standing behind him trying to take care of him. The rest of the population hasn't got that because and they didn't put they didn't put themselves at risk. Donald Trump put them at risk. And this is a story that I think is being told in houses across the United States. Let me
Zain
14:44
me throw an additional element to this mix between the conversation you two are having, which is the exclusive cocktail that Trump is receiving that no one else in the public has access to. Carter, do you feel like that is also – it's not publicly approved, so the only person kind of taking this medication that we know of.
Corey
15:02
No, there's more for sure. But, yeah, your point is still overridingly correct. Not anybody can just get that. Correct.
Zain
15:08
Correct. Correct. Do you feel the same way, Carter, with that being said, that the special medication or special cocktail should not be given to him?
Carter
15:16
No, I don't think that's the same because, again, it's hard to understand, right? So you have to put things into, can I understand that just at an emotional and immediate level? And at an emotional and immediate level, I don't think the medication plays the same way as him putting a Secret Service agent at risk. That plays differently. currently so um you
Carter
15:39
you know cory cory and i may split the point on the number of doctors i still think i'm right and cory's wrong as always because cory's you know just generally wrong and this is to
Carter
15:50
to me people are sitting at home uh 207 000 families have been impacted by covid uh in the united states of america uh they've got 20 of the deaths worldwide that was a line that one of the the few lines that Biden said that actually stuck, you know, where he talked about 20% of the deaths out of 4.5% of the population. I think that this is
Carter
16:12
playing poorly for Trump, because he is playing it poorly.
Carter
16:17
They're not thinking of the staging.
Zain
16:19
Corey, let's talk about the, just before we move on from this point, the strategic choice of the medical team and how they've communicated, what they've said, the vagueness, the opaqueness of what they've talked about. Let's talk about that, the lack of clarity. These are, at the end of the day, medical professionals. So maybe let's deviate from where we're talking about the size of the team and the type of care to what they've been saying and how they've been saying it. What is your take on that strategically?
Corey
16:44
Well, it is fascinating. And I don't know if it was you or Stephen who said it, but it's absolutely correct. It is for an audience of one. Trump wants his doctors to say everything is great. So that's what his physicians are saying.
Corey
16:55
Because they are not necessarily thrown own to the wolves every day they don't necessarily know how to duck and weave on these and frankly the washington press corps is in no mood for such nonsense either right now yeah
Corey
17:06
you don't get away with saying yeah
Carter
17:08
yeah he had uh you
Corey
17:09
you know he had oxygen no oxygen today and no oxygen the day before yesterday and and so that like the next question like who's gonna fall for that um but
Corey
17:19
but uh but it's pretty clear that the the physician knows even from his comments today what was it he's like like well i just wanted to you know convey positivity or something those those words because it's donald trump watching and he wants donald trump to feel positive about it and he is the patient and he doesn't want him to think oh my god i'm dying so i i sort of get that and it's just it's not the way it's supposed to work which is in part why i think trump's chief of staff went because i think some people around donald trump realize it's not a great idea to pretend the president is totally healthy on the off chance he just dies the next day so you need We need to at least have out there some sort of semblance of reality. This is my suspicion. This is my hypothesis, is that Trump's doctors are playing for Trump and people around Donald Trump are saying, okay, well, we can't just let everybody sleepwalk through this gobsmacked if this guy dies in five days. I mean, I've never quite seen communications done in this fashion for a crisis like this, but I guess I sort of understand how they got there. No,
Carter
18:20
that's not entirely true, Corey. You have seen this happen before. You've seen it happen in North Korea. You've seen it happen in China. You've seen it happen in Russia.
Corey
18:27
Yes, I have. Right?
Corey
18:28
I've never seen it in the States. There you
Corey
18:30
That's a fair correction. I will take that revision, Stephen.
Corey
18:34
Carter, what's the most strategically
Zain
18:35
optimal move for team Trump? Except in the movie Dave. Oh,
Zain
18:38
Oh, we have seen
Corey
18:40
seen it in Dave. That is correct.
Zain
18:42
That's a good point. It was in the classic fourth act of Dave. I mean, that fourth act of Dave is quite something. Carter, question to you. Most politically optimal choice here for how they communicate. Is it to play to an audience of one or is it to temper it down a bit? Knowing, let's also keep in mind, I mean, this is not just happening in any time horizon. This is happening T minus 29 days from an election. So the most politically calculating strategy here for how the doctors communicate, what would that be in your mind? Well,
Carter
19:15
Well, I mean, let's let's break this down and go right back to crisis management 101, right? Crisis comms 101. Start with the truth. Tell the truth, right? Because it only is going to get worse. Corey's point about, well, you know, you're telling everybody that everything's okay, and then he's dead the next day. You know, what happens in that scenario? The Republican Party is bigger than one man. I mean, not really at this particular moment, but it is in general. And so you have to have a broader sense of what will happen if you wish to retain power. and you wish to influence the direction of the United States. So truth
Carter
19:49
truth is the beginning of that story. You know, you can massage the truth. People give us heck because we spin truth, right? Well, spinning truth is totally different in my mind than just telling a bald-faced lie, you know, or something so unbelievably see-through as he's not receiving oxygen currently, right now, right? Like that's so unbelievably easy to see through the spin. You know, if he wasn't receiving oxygen now and he'd been receiving oxygen earlier, that's actually a good story. But these guys are so bad, so bad at this. Their instinct is to lie without ever thinking about, is the truth the better path? And in this particular case, especially, the truth is the better path.
Zain
20:33
Corey, I'll end this segment with you. Not this segment, but this particular tranche with you, which is, what's the most politically optimal direction for Team Trump?
Corey
20:43
Well, I agree that they need to find it in themselves to tell the truth on this particular issue. And it's not just about politics. It's also about nation. I talked about him not being a normal guy. He does have the nuclear codes. This is a pretty serious situation. America doesn't exactly have a
Corey
21:00
a basket of only friends out there in the world. And when your president is kind of like Schrodinger's patient, you know, is he doing well? Is he doing poorly? I think you've got a real problem. You've got a real problem in that people around you don't know how to act. We haven't gotten to the notion of the 25th Amendment that is likely premature, this notion of just essentially making Pence the acting president, given the fact that we've seen Donald Trump do all of his stagecraft. But who
Corey
21:28
who the hell would know? Who the hell would know with the information that we have floating out here? And let's just say all of a sudden Donald Trump does take a turn for the worst. if the last thing you heard is he's supposed to be going back to the white house on monday and everything's great in
Corey
21:42
this particular moment i mean you could have q anon you could have all sorts of crazy right-wing groups saying this has been a coup look at this god forbid pence for whatever reason gets sick or chokes on a pretzel or gets hit by a bus and nancy pelosi's the president everyone thinks donald trump was fine right up until that happened like there are some pretty nutty doomsday scenarios here and the best defense against all of them is just coming I mean, being
Corey
22:06
being straight with the American people, being straight, because right now he just looks like a cock up eight ways from Sunday. Anyhow, he's not winning any political points. So why don't we try the truth for once?
Zain
22:17
Let's talk about winning political points in Trump a little bit more. And I'm going to put these three strategies, if you can call them, that Trump deployed over the last couple of days into one package and ask you guys to dissect them and give me a score as to what you kind of think they what you kind of think the strategy meant and perhaps how you would perhaps improve it. So it was that photo session. You saw the photo session with Trump at Walter Reed Medical Center saying that he's good, signing his autograph on a blank sheet of paper. You then saw that four-minute video where he communicated directly to his supporters saying he's fine. And then today you saw him in the Beast doing a little bit of a victory lap in this hermetically sealed car where he's got COVID and there's a Secret Service agent inside. So let me just add that context. Well, he waves and thanks his supporters. Let's package those three things together. And maybe, Stephen, I'll start with you. What did you make of Trump's what I'd call PR 101 exercise to show that he's still the strong man that his supporters think he is? Would you give it high marks? What would you kind of dissect from that strategy? And where's your head at on what you saw?
Carter
23:24
Well, I mean, what he's trying to show is that business is usual, right? And this is not unusual for a medical situation with a leader. You know, the medical situation happens. They want to show that they're doing okay. All of a sudden, they're out playing tennis or they're, you know, they're getting photographs taken of them doing something that is physically impressive.
Carter
23:47
mean, in this particular case, Trump is doing a video.
Carter
23:50
he's driving around in the backseat of the beast and he's doing a photo session none
Carter
23:53
none of those things are particularly impressive but they're all designed to show his followers and his his supporters that it is in fact business as usual do you
Zain
24:03
working for them do you think it's actually communicating that and resonating with those folks no
Carter
24:07
no in part because of the choices like for example the photo the the photo session with the signing the blank piece of paper make
Carter
24:13
make it an actual executive order make it something that that that is real and don't just just do it for the photo shoot. The four minute video, I actually think it's good. I think that, you know, speaking directly to your supporters at this particular moment is the right play. And the beast lap was was just a strongman move that, you know, so the objective is right, right? What he's trying to achieve of showing normalcy and showing the the continuation of the office. Totally right. What's wrong are this are two of the three specific tactics In a perfect world, he should have gone for a walk, right? Even if it's just a walk through the grounds of Walter Reed Hospital. He needs to get – he needed to be showing that he had – you know, he could act. It could be a closed, secured environment. It could be, you know, whatever. But it would show a normalcy. Even if he was eating a fucking McDonald's burger, it would show a degree of normalcy, right? And that's what he needed to do. And that's one of the things that he missed. The other thing that he missed is empathy. You know, he did talk now. All of a sudden he understands the plague. All of a sudden now he understands what people went through.
Carter
25:23
Those are words. And first of all, poorly chosen words. And secondly, they just don't hit. Right. Like there's no empathy behind them. He now understands. I now understand. I understand. I understand. That's not empathy. That's just more I statements.
Zain
25:38
Corey, same question to you. What do you kind of make of Trump's package of tactics here? And perhaps even what you'd respond to what you heard from Stephen here as well?
Corey
25:48
Well, I do appreciate that a leader wants to look like the sky is not falling. That's pretty natural presidential behavior. And in fact, it's arguably even responsible presidential behavior to a point, as long as it's not entirely fictional. the way he is going about it is is incredibly callous and it does reinforce a lot of the negatives that uh americans have of president trump in this moment and we are starting to see polling come forward that shows that americans even not quite the majority but what 45 plus percent of republicans think he fucked up right and um he's he's reinforcing a lot of that throughout his actions steven's point about it's all i statement still really really solid hadn't really thought about the fact that that was the core of his language but he's absolutely right and the selfishness plays through in a lot of those other actions as well you know unless the secret service agent and driver have already had covid that i mean that's the only scenario in which i can see this not being a truly monstrous act exposing them to it and people are talking about this an attending physician at walter reed tweeted about this that's not exactly something you would expect to see from an attending physician at the hospital the president is being treated unless temperatures were very high about it my understanding from washington
Corey
27:03
washington chatter is that the secret service members themselves right pissed about it they see this as just putting themselves in the line of fire and that's not a way to get a lot of support
Corey
27:13
support especially for a president who is has traditionally really
Corey
27:17
really tried to showcase his support of law and order it just makes it really clear that he doesn't actually care about law
Corey
27:22
law and order he cares about what law on order means for him. It's not a
Corey
27:26
a good look. It's a look that even Republicans are turning against. And when you start seeing the cracks in the Fox News crowd saying like, well, maybe the president could have done that different.
Corey
27:36
know, he's in pretty bad territory. You
Zain
27:38
know, worst of all, it actually makes us go back to the drawing board because I know our live show was planned to be in a motorcade where we would just wave to our fans while recording an episode. So this is actually really problematic for us because this was our first option. And now we
Carter
27:53
we have to go back to the front.
Carter
27:54
It's really unfortunate. Yeah, we
Zain
27:57
told you to rent, Carter. I don't know why you don't listen. It
Carter
28:01
a Subaru limo. It's fantastic. I'm
Zain
28:05
I'm pretty sure you bought a hearse, Carter.
Zain
28:09
very appropriate. Yeah, I understood that as soon as it came out of my mouth. Let me talk about, before I get into Biden and the Dems strategy here, I want to talk about one more thing on the Republican side, which is Mike Pence. So Pence was at that same Amy Coney Barrett Rose Garden celebration. He has been tested negative three days in a row. Medical professionals across the United States are pounding their desks saying that he needs to isolate. He needs to be in isolation and quarantine himself. He's refused. He said he's going to debate on Wednesday against Kamala Harris, which we'll talk about in our upcoming segment. But he's also said that he's going to hold rallies going forward. If you're the Republicans, Corey, let me stick with you here. Is Mike Pence doing you any favors with his strategic choice here or no?
Corey
28:53
Oh, listen, Mike Pence would never breathe air breathed by a woman other than his wife. I'm sure he just held his breath the whole time. I'm sure it's fine. I'm sure he doesn't have COVID. No, I mean, this is nuts. I mean, like, this is the notion of putting down bets that seem suspect at one point, but are at this point, you're almost just chasing your losses. And now, just imagine from a reputational point of view that Pence does get COVID. Maybe not even from this event. Let's say he gets COVID from something entirely different two days later, but it looks close enough. People start going, hmm,
Corey
29:23
interesting, right? I mean, the irresponsibility narrative, it's like threefold. It's like not just double. It's a multiplier beyond that. It becomes exponential, like the growth of a virus itself. Because you
Corey
29:36
you can't just sort of hand wave it away and say, well, we didn't know the risks. Yeah, you knew the risks. I mean, you've just gotten your ass kicked for the risks that the president took. So I just don't think that the risk-benefit calculation is there. And I do understand that they're probably a little panicked. They don't have their candidate right now. And to lose their candidate's backup is probably,
Corey
29:58
know, worse. But on the other hand, he's the vice president. He was still not the candidate. And you have other options. You don't want to do what Joe Biden's been doing. But you know what? But Joe Biden's more remote events, individual events, stuff like that, was done for a reason. And it might be worth just cooling your heels for a couple of weeks. By the way, advice I might give to Biden as well right now with the exact same logic.
Zain
30:22
Yeah, and I'll get to Biden in a second. Carter, asking you in a slightly different way, why do you think Pence made this strategic calculation? Is it that someone needs to be out on the trail? The campaign still needs to have a heartbeat? Is that what you think? What do you think his strategic calculus was? The
Carter
30:35
The exact same reason why Trump did the photo session, the four minute video and the beast lab. They wanted to appear normal. They wanted to be appearing normal. Now, unfortunately, they wrote a book that said we're going to pretend that this covid thing isn't really real, that it's being blown out of proportion by the Democrats. And we're going to say that mask wearing is, you know, we're going to make our side be the non mask wearers and we're going to make our side be the non social distancers and the conspiracy theorists around it. And there's not enough people. I'm sure it's chaos in all the campaigns. I'm sure they're trying to figure out what the hell to do with this. But there's not enough people standing up and saying, we need to take our rule book and throw it out now. And
Carter
31:16
And we need to have a new rule book for the last 30 days. And the last 30 days should be focused on keeping our
Carter
31:26
You know, I mean, imagine if Pence comes down with this. He hasn't at this particular moment. Bill Barr hasn't come down with it. But we've all seen him, you know, hugging, shaking hands in close contact with Kellyanne
Carter
31:38
Kellyanne Conway, who's now come down with it. All of these people were in the same building, you know, in the same room or in the same outdoor area, like not
Carter
31:48
not even feet apart from one another, inches apart from one another. And and they're dropping like flies. eyes so if i was pence i'd
Carter
31:57
i'd be saying you know how do we make sure that this campaign can actually succeed um because if both of us get covid i
Carter
32:04
i i just don't know how it works i don't know how it works and i don't know how to cory's earlier point uh the conspiracy theorists don't just crank up crank up the gestetner machine and really see what kind of pamphlets they can push off because there's some uh there'd
Carter
32:18
there'd be some wacko shit coming out of the out of the the the conspiracy conspiracy theorists, that's for damn sure.
Zain
32:23
I want to talk about a few more strategic choices here. Before I get to Biden, let's talk about Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer. An interesting sidewind of this thing has been that a couple of the GOP senators on the Judiciary Committee have also been diagnosed with COVID. This has then led Pelosi and Schumer to say that we should not be having a hearing for Amy Coney Barrett, that a vote on a lifetime appointment needs to happen in person. Corey, what do you kind of make of this? I shouldn't call it Hail Mary, but it is resembling one, trying to take advantage of an opportunity of what Schumer and Pelosi are trying to do right now, because we still have a promise by Mitch McConnell and Donald Trump that they want to get Amy Coney Barrett to become a justice prior to the election. So let's talk about that strategic choice, what you make of it and what you perhaps may have proposed as an alternative if you didn't like it well
Corey
33:16
this might be one of the assuming donald trump makes a full recovery and stephen carter has predicted correctly for the first time in his life assuming that occurs this might be the most impactful consequence of all of this super spreading that occurred as a result of this event um that the republicans have three senators who are sick i think at least one of them is asymptomatic but they still have to be like they can't go vote on the floor of the the senate yeah
Corey
33:43
um they are able to my understanding of the senate rules is they are able to deliberate remotely but they have to vote in person even at the committee and certainly the floor vote requires them to be in person for the senate because the senate never actually changed the rules to allow remote voting the way the house did so fascinating because again this is kind of that let's
Corey
34:02
let's just all have a little hypocrisy and flip sides thing right but uh but there is a real chance there is a real chance that um that
Corey
34:12
that the republicans are not able to hold their vote um
Corey
34:16
um and get their supreme court justice because of the event announcing the supreme court justice universe with oh yeah
Corey
34:25
with a sense of humor right it's just unbelievable um because you got to keep in mind there's only it's you only need a couple of these senators to go down alone like i don't mean die people just to be clear i mean be like out of the loop long enough that the election can go um
Corey
34:41
um for that you just have no ability to do that you can't swap out the committee appointments without a vote you can't get that vote either right like the democrats will just deny you every option you have along the way so if i'm schumer i am definitely holding my uh foot to their throat on this i am not letting i mean why would you not especially when this is such a no holds barred move themselves yeah forget it if you're going to try to jam through and say the rules allow this i'm going to stop it and say the rules allow this absolutely and who's going to blame me uh if i'm pelosi i'm just keeping my mouth shut because of course i allowed it in the house so like there's there's no point in me getting involved but if i'm schumer i'm saying no no no what's good for the goose is good for the gander as we have been discussing since the start of this nomination and this vote's not getting forward except under those rules so i think this This is a really, really fascinating consequence.
Zain
35:31
Carter, analyze the strategy by Schumer and Pelosi, more emphasis on Schumer, around this strategy of lifetime appointments. We can have a virtual vote. This needs to be done in person.
Carter
35:43
Yeah, I mean, I was really pissed with Corey when he was talking about, you know, I was last week
Carter
35:48
week when we were talking about the rules
Carter
35:51
rules allow this. You know, I was really angry with him because, you know, the hypocrisy that came from the Republicans was so frustrating. for me uh and now the rules allow this i'm
Corey
36:04
i'm totally fine because funny how that happened yeah
Carter
36:07
yeah i mean and there's also a quorum question i mean this thing dies uh if they can't get quorum so
Carter
36:13
so if they can you know the democrats stay home the republicans don't have quorum boom ball game's over sort
Corey
36:19
sort of because somebody has to call out the fact that there's no quorum so if all the democrats stay home yeah
Corey
36:25
nobody can call that out but
Carter
36:26
but i still think that they're they I mean, they may be able to get there. I think that there's opportunity, though. And again, to Corey's point, this thing that made me so angry just about
Carter
36:35
about a week ago, I'm now okay with. I'm now okay saying just, you know, the rules are the rules. You wanted to play by the rules. I didn't set the rules. So go for it. And if you know what, if it saves the court, I mean, that's fantastic for the Democrats. it will, this could be a major shift against the Republicans.
Zain
37:02
Guys, let's talk about Biden. And let's use this as a segue. We've always and you guys have especially always said Biden's strategy here needs to be to not go down Trump's rabbit holes to not, you know, necessarily pick scabs, so to speak, to appear presidential to peer above the fray. Today, an NBC poll comes out saying Biden has a 14 point edge over Trump, volatile polling for sure. But I want to use it to talk about this item we just mentioned, which is the Supreme Court nominee. Should Biden be spending political capital right now to making an emphasis on this particular issue? Should he be donating some of his political capital behind Chuck Schumer and others, perhaps even burning it to be able to try to make this not happen, knowing that he's got, whether it's a 14 or eight or six, whatever you want to say, point lead heading into November? Corey, maybe I'll start with you first.
Corey
37:53
No, nothing has changed except for the fact that American senators are sick. So it would be ghoulish to all of a sudden jump in and say it can't happen now. It will either die because the Republicans don't have the votes or it will live because Republicans do have the votes. And nothing Joe Biden does at this point can change that. So my advice to Joe Biden does not change in this matter. Keep above it. Keep beyond it. In a funny way, you managed to avoid talking
Corey
38:22
talking about court packing at the debate. I have no idea how. And now I'm kind of suspect there will be future debates where you're going to have to defend yourself on that front. So you might have just sailed entirely on that point.
Corey
38:32
You have options if they appoint Amy Coney Barrett. You have left yourself that latitude. So there's no point. I see absolutely no point in getting involved there. Just continue to stay above the fray. um continue to wish the president and the first lady well in the recovery continue to wish the senators well you've got the long game to keep in mind when you're up by 14 points saying you start thinking about governing and if
Corey
38:59
if you want to restitch together the american republic you you don't want to be having those ghoulish fights that would be necessitated by taking a more aggressive approach on the supreme court carter
Corey
39:10
carter do you agree
Zain
39:10
agree with cory's assessment
Carter
39:12
i do and i And I would even caution that a 14-point lead is a 14-point lead until the director of the FBI tells
Carter
39:22
tells you that you're being investigated. Hillary Clinton had a 14-point lead in a couple of polls in October of 2016. 14 points is a lot of points until it's not. I don't think that's going to happen. I think that this electorate is a little bit more baked in and Trump's
Carter
39:41
Trump's the incumbent now instead of the challenger. There's a whole bunch of, obviously, very different elements. But from my point of view, Biden gets to be Biden and he forces Chuck Schumer to do the dirty work on this. There's nothing prestigious about stopping this nomination battle for the Supreme Court. That has to happen by underlings.
Carter
40:07
underlings. And that underling is named Chuck, and he has to go do the work.
Zain
40:13
up at the doors, not really registering new voters. So the campaign has officially declared that they're going to go out now start doing more of that ground game. Let's talk about those two strategic choices. The first one was to pause the negative ads. The second one was to now do more voter mobilization, voter registration, unearthing that supporter base. What do you make of both of those under this cover, if I can call it that, of Trump getting COVID? And Corey, perhaps I'll start with you.
Corey
41:03
Well, I'm of two minds about the negative ads, because on one hand, you will will get a lot of angry people if you have one of these ads out and donald trump takes a turn for the worst right like you are such an insensitive bastard the man is waiting for his life why can't you just let go um
Corey
41:19
um but in that scenario donald trump is probably not going to win the election anyhow so i um i part the larger part of me thinks they should have continued the ads because what is a negative ad ultimately right are we talking contrast ads donald trump says x i say y this This is a man whose record is deplorable. And if you are Joe Biden, your campaign is largely a campaign against Donald Trump. And to pull that arrow out of your quiver, that's a big move. The other thing is, when do you put it back? When do you put it back? When is the trigger that allows you then to say, okay, I'm going to run negative ads again? Is it when he returns to the White House? Is it when he himself resumes his campaign? You're going to take the hit that you would have taken about the negative ads. You've drawn attention to it. You've implied there's something wrong about negative ads all at the same time. like it gets so complicated i guess is my
Corey
42:07
so i probably would have continued the ads i would have maybe even reached out and said hey listen donald if you're willing to pull your ads for a bit i'm willing to pull my ads for a bit let's just call a ad truce for a week like you know have something that was time bound and literally tied to the other side also putting their gun down but because the trump campaign has not put their gun down and you have and now you've got all that awkwardness i've just described on the whole i have to say it was a mistake now
Corey
42:31
now when it comes comes to relaunching ground game and all of those attack or attacks all of those activities um yeah i mean i i think that in a way this is probably a month later than they should have as long as they're being safe practicing social distancing doing this the smart way um
Corey
42:48
don't know i mean i don't want somebody showing up at my door but i think america is a very different place and i think they're more used to interactions with the community so you know i lean to why not but i'm not down there carter
Zain
42:59
carter same question to you what do you make of of the ad ban, negative ad ban? And then what do you make of resuming ground game with a little bit of panic on voter registration?
Carter
43:09
Well, let's talk about the resuming ground game first, because I think that it just needed to be done in certain states. This isn't retalking. I mean, you kind of characterized it, Zane, as starting events again. It's more door to door. It is. Sorry, you're
Carter
43:26
It's more door to door,
Zain
43:27
door, like relational organizing style activities I think
Carter
43:30
think that people were crapping their pants because it's been some of the Democrats' strongest organizing techniques. And to just simply remove it from the options, you
Carter
43:41
know, it just feels like it was going too far. So I think that they felt that they had no choice but to remove that and jump in on it. Now, having said that, I
Carter
43:52
I disagree with Corey. You know, I think I think that taking down the negative ads was the only thing to do. I mean, first of all, if we believe that he's he's 14 points up, it doesn't matter if he's 14 points up or 10 points up. The negative ads can only do so much lifting. You
Carter
44:09
You know, Trump's in a negative place. He's here. He's hurt. There's a certain point when piling on to an aggrieved party is no longer sportsmanlike. and it actually turns on you and becomes the negative so pulling the ads is fine i think that's exactly right and especially when you can run was essentially devastating contrast ads as public as as as simply straight up positive ads i'm going to put in a health care plan for you i'm going to protect your health care is that a negative ad i
Carter
44:42
don't think so but
Carter
44:43
but it is seen as negative when the guy's in the fucking hospital right like this gives you a tremendous opportunity to run positive ads that are seen as unbelievably negative pull down those negatives run your positives as negatives and just dig in like this is this is an opportunity unlike anything we've seen before and i can see in cory's eyes no i like that i was worried you
Corey
45:05
you had gone soft on us steve cory
Zain
45:07
cory carter carter's gonna write the the the next uh groundbreaking political hit on on extending the Overton window on political negative advertising. Sounds like a one-page PhD paper. I think it's an HD, but it sounds good, Carter. It sounds good. I like it. Listen, I have to end with this question, which is I said I didn't want to get into scenario planning, but let's use this question to end this segment. Let's assume Trump survives this thing. Let's assume he beats it. Is there any upside to that? Let's say it takes the standard 10 to 12 days. Let's do political math here. Is there any way Trump comes out of this better politically with T-minus whatever it is, 20, 15, 12 days left than worse, Carter?
Carter
45:52
I think that there is. I mean, I'm afraid of it. I'm afraid of it. I think that, you know, they're already selling Trump beat COVID stickers in the White House gift shop. That's a
Corey
46:06
a little – they might be calling the game a little early. I'm not selling them.
Carter
46:10
them. No, it's made by you because it
Carter
46:12
it feels like something you would— They're selling them. I am merely reporting the news. Who is they?
Corey
46:18
That's a very Trump thing. The White House—
Corey
46:20
These people, some people are saying. They came
Corey
46:22
to him and they said, sir, we have these new
Carter
46:29
what I'm trying to get across here is that if he rises from the dead as Lazarus and Jesus Christ himself, then he will have some power from it. And I worry about that because I worry that that's
Carter
46:46
that's why one of the reasons they're playing up how sick he is. Mark Meadows thinks if he plays up how sick he is, then obviously it's a bigger recovery. And that's a bigger step forward in the Donald Trump is Jesus Christ narrative. But I worry about this.
Zain
47:03
Yeah, just before I jump to you, Corey, just for our listeners, use the code WIN, W-I-N, at the Walter Reed Medical Center gift shop for your Trump t-shirt. So just use the code WIN, you'll get 10% off on any of your Trump beat COVID merchandise. Corey, same question to you. Is there any
Zain
47:19
any upside here for
Zain
47:21
for Trump? Let's say he beats this, the scenario that I think is most humane and hopefully most likely. What's the political math here? Or do you see a pathway that he comes out better politically?
Corey
47:34
Look, it seems really unlikely. It's not impossible. I thought it was more probable before. So before he went to the hospital, I thought if Trump is just got the sniffles for three days, and then he's back, and he's the same guy he was, and he's out on the campaign trail in 10 days, that's very reinforcing of his overall narratives, which are very counter to Joe Biden's narratives. Joe Biden is saying, this is really serious. You got to take this serious. You've got to do more. And if Donald Trump sort of walks through and kind of dusts his shoulder and says, yeah, no big, then I think if you're Joe Biden, you've got a problem. If you're Donald Trump, you've got an opportunity. But now that he has actually had to go to the hospital, he's been put on experimental drugs, he has been given oxygen, he's been given a steroid treatment that is only supposed to be used in severe situations. conversations, I think it is a bit of a stretch to suggest he's going to be able to walk out and say, yeah, no, like COVID is not a big deal. Like every time he talks about COVID for the rest of the election, which will be the rest of the election because the fucker got COVID, it's going to be just a reminder of the weaknesses of Donald Trump. So I don't think that that's a significant risk, at least with the bulk of the electorate. Obviously, Donald Trump's diehards, They will see him as that messiah that Carter talked about.
Corey
48:50
There will be people who just have a general sympathy to him, you know, poor guy. But the polling that we do have suggests that's very much the minority. And most people are saying, these
Corey
49:01
these clowns have really screwed it up. And at this point, I don't know how they get out of that because he has gone to the hospital. They have had to take extraordinary measures to save his life.
Zain
49:11
Let's move it on to our next segment, our next segment, Second to None. None. Guys, we should be talking about BC. We should be talking about Saskatchewan. I'm just going to apologize to those provinces. Actually, I'm going to apologize to our whole country because we're now sticking with the US. And let's talk about those that are on the bottom of the ticket.
Zain
49:28
Senator Kamala Harris and Vice President Mike Pence, they are set to debate on Wednesday. I want to do a quick segment here talking about vice presidential debates, their impact in normal times. But before we even get to that, because this is not normal times, let's talk about some some of the strategy related to the fact that Mike Pence could, in the next 24 to 72 hours, test positive for COVID. And he's clearly been, you know, in close connection at that Rose Garden ceremony, as we talked about. And Carter, maybe I'll start with you. What is Kamala Harris's strategy heading into this debate? Should she outright refuse to debate knowing, you know, that Mike Pence is not taking into perspective the medical guidance here. Maybe that isn't the strategy, but maybe let's start with Kamala. What should her strategy, even prior to the debate, prior to her walking out and proverbially bumping elbows or doing that, what should her strategy be?
Carter
50:26
God, now you got me thinking three-dimensional chess. Is that Pence's move, right? Right. Is that why Pence isn't following the guidelines so that he forces Kamala Harris to say that he's that she's out? She's not going to debate him because that should be the response. You've been exposed to people with covid. You've been talking in close quarters with people with covid. You are not isolating and quarantining yourself. I am not going to debate you. you i am not going to be in inside with you uh you know spitting at each other uh from from two and a half meters apart um that feels to me like that should be the normal response um but i don't think that she's got that opportunity first of all we're all looking forward to this debate remember from the day that she was chosen uh to be joe biden's running mate it has been expected that she would be the star of the debates she would stand in there against mike pence and wipe the floor with that poor motherfucker and and that is what we want from her so i'm really like i think that on the medical side she should say no on the political side she should say yes and walk into that room and do as we've been hoping for uh from the day she was named and just take take um him him down.
Zain
51:46
Corey, same question to you. What would you do if you were Kamala Harris right now, even prior to you getting onto that debate stage?
Corey
51:54
mean, I'd absolutely show up on the debate stage. The vice presidential debate has not seemed so important in a very long time. This is, you literally have a president who's in the hospital, and you have another one who is is also very old. So it's important that this go forward. I will say that if I'm the Democrats, however, that doesn't preclude me from doing things like demanding the commission put plexiglass between myself and Mike Pence, which will just visually reinforce the whole Donald Trump is a walking vector of disease thing throughout the debate. So there are ways you can play with it. And there's no way that Pence can reasonably say no to such a demand. And so a bit of a game of chicken can happen there. And you can have a setup that will essentially reinforce that. And the
Corey
52:42
other thing I'm doing, if I'm Kamala Harris, is I'm playing a bit of expectations game. What worries me about this debate for the Democrats is exactly what Stephen said, which is, oh, she's going to mop the floor with him. It's going to be a rout. It's just going to be an ass kicking.
Corey
52:57
Maybe not. You know, it's a vice presidential debate and these things can can take on a weird energy so um you've got to be careful that you don't over commit to it i think you actually play up this oddity of the moment and say this is a vice presidential debate like like we've never have many are saying this shouldn't even go forward it's going to take on a different tone a more somber tone this is not kamala harris's sweet spot you know normally it's when she's going and taking the fight to them but that would be a little inappropriate at this point like i'm seeding those messages out there if i'm the democrats um and i'm uh uh, walking in and I am in some ways more than I expected her to have to be. I have to be the extension of that presidential feeling, you know, like we are different from these guys. And so, um, those expectations need to be set ahead of time, but you got to do it. You absolutely have to do it.
Corey
53:46
and, uh, there's just no backing out of it. Oh, that doesn't mean you can't twist the knife a bit and make it difficult for them and insist on a bunch of COVID protections and remind people that the Trump family, in fact, ignored the COVID protections that were in place in Ohio.
Zain
54:03
Carter, to you, what should the Pence strategy be heading into this debate? So he wants to do it. How should he position himself? Should he try to add some distance between him and Trump? Should he try to be his own thing? How is he positioning himself? Because Corey brings up a really important point, a president in the hospital, and if Biden wins the oldest president to ever take office, this could be a preview of maybe not even four years from now, but much sooner in either direction. So how is Pence perhaps positioning this debate and perhaps himself in the context of being Trump's VP pick?
Carter
54:38
Well, I think that it would, you know, the idea of separating himself a little bit from Trump would be outstanding. I mean, Mike Pence started off as the head of the COVID response, right? I mean, how we remember that, that didn't last very long at all well
Zain
54:52
well he didn't get
Zain
54:53
coveted so he i think he did a good job yeah yet
Carter
54:58
um but you know i think that the problem with that is that he's so you know he and all the republicans are now trumpers right like they're all trumpers this is who they are so he's got to go in there and carry some of the uh the
Carter
55:11
the water for the president and it's it's going to be very difficult because Because it's not looking like a great time for the president right now. He's unable to do the things. I mean, obviously, the debates, the second and third debates for the presidential candidates are up in the air. This could be it. So a lot of pressure is on Pence. And I just
Carter
55:33
just don't have a lot of confidence that he's going to be able to carry things. I know that the expectation game at this point is so high for Harris that if she doesn't destroy him, it may look like a loss. So I'll be interested to see that. And if that happens, she could win by 25% and still have it be a loss. And maybe that's Pence's game. Maybe that's what Pence plays for. Not quite a draw, but just if I don't get absolutely slaughtered, if I lose by one, then I'm the winner in this debate.
Zain
56:07
Corey, if you are Mike Pence, what is your strategy right now? Now, how are you positioning this route that you were supposed to face against Kamala Harris? Are you leaning into the expectations, trying to inflate them? Are you trying to add distance between you and Trump? Is it all of the above? Is it something else?
Corey
56:24
He cannot be his own thing. He cannot distance himself from Trump. If it looks like he's getting ready to walk into the office or he's saying, I'm my own guy and I'm doing my own thing, he is going to get crucified. crucified so he has actually less room of motion than he had um before donald trump got this disease because before he could have gone and said like almost acted suddenly like yeah no i'm a check on donald trump i'm there to have a different version of conservatism i'm the i'm the religious guy who's gonna you
Corey
56:52
know keep him on those tracks if it looks like he's now trying to separate that's that's very awkward especially if you imagine on wednesday maybe donald trump's not home from the the hospital maybe things maybe we've gotten another few updates from the doctor saying things are going great we got over yesterday when we had to take out those vital organs of his that we didn't tell you about the day before you know i mean uh he's he's got a situation where he's just gotta wrap himself in the president uh metaphorically the guy's sick don't don't actually hug him mike pence that would be a mistake so
Carter
57:24
um as far as expectations go yeah she's
Corey
57:28
she's a master her debater she's a typical liberal you know silver-tongued but uh you know very devious in her uh you know her intentions but also let's not fall into the snl version of mike pence the guy is not an idiot and he's not an incapable debater um he he's not gonna light your world on fire he's not gonna be a zinger a minute but he was a governor he understands how to do these things and he's not going to be a total pushover either so i do think the expectation game helps him a fair bit but he
Corey
57:59
he you know i'd
Corey
58:01
i'd be somber i'd be talking about donald trump you know the sacrifices he made because it's important for the nation to get on his feet you've got to realize that not everybody in the nation is a is an obese 74 year old i wouldn't use those words because trump will be watching but say like but no he led by example and he said america we can't just hide in a bunker you know i i would be doing things like this making him almost into a folk hero uh because because that's what Donald Trump will expect. That's what Donald Trump's supporters will expect. And if he starts to show daylight, he's going to get killed.
Zain
58:31
Is it a failing strategy to lean too much into the other direction, Corey? Because you said Trump will be watching. That brings me back to audience of one. Is this another sort of stand on stage to please grandmaster thing? What if Pence does that? Does that kind of expose him more than it than it provides um strategic upside so
Corey
58:52
so normally i would say yes but again you got to keep in mind in this scenario unless donald trump is home and all of a sudden totally fine again
Corey
59:00
that it's going to look like kamala harris is attacking a man who's in the hospital if if he if he holds really close to donald trump pencil holds really close to donald trump so so uh it actually affords him a bit of protection he wouldn't otherwise have have.
Zain
59:14
Carter, let's talk about the final sort of element to this in my mind, which is the impact. What do you think the impact of the vice presidential debate will be? Normally, it's you survive, you kind of pump up your person, you show competency. The general wisdom is no one's voting for the bottom of the ticket. Is that changed this time around? Do you think it's different? Do you feel like the impact in this COVID world, Trump world, 2020 world is going to be perhaps different for what we might see as the outcome of this debate yeah
Carter
59:42
yeah i mean this pence could be the candidate you know obviously i've predicted otherwise uh so this isn't going to be the case but um pence could be the candidate uh on november the third um covid's real it's serious uh it has a 32 mortality rate for obese men and over in their 70s uh you know draw whatever conclusions you want from that um you know 64 percent of of men in their 70s who get covid are hospitalized uh so trump has already put himself into that category uh so we're seeing a a we
Carter
1:00:19
we could be seeing a you know as as has been pointed out biden is the oldest candidate to ever it would be the oldest person ever assumed the office uh there's a more than reasonable chance that either Either one of these two people could be president. And so it will take on a totally different meaning than we would see in the Dan Quayle style vice presidential debates when we were mostly concerned about whether or not he could spell potato.
Corey
1:00:47
Well, it's further than that. It's not that one of them could become president. They both could be president. Pence could finish Trump's term. Biden could fail to finish his. And Kamala Harris could do that for him. I mean, this is an interesting presidential or vice presidential debate in that sense.
Zain
1:01:03
So let's move it to this final sort of question on this vice presidential debate, which is, what should both of the campaigns be trying to make of this debate? Should they be putting emphasis on it? Should they not be putting an emphasis on it? Carter, if you are Team Biden right now, you know, despite your expectation lowering, do you want to showcase that you've got a star here that can literally run the country if you need to? Or is this all about Biden in the 11th hour? And then same with Team Trump, like what sort of emphasis are you we talked about impact, but now let's talk about emphasis. Are you putting on on this debate if you are both of those teams?
Carter
1:01:40
You know, I actually don't know, Zane. I mean, part of me is thinking that if I'm team Biden, I don't want the lower part of my ticket to shine and take away a potential opportunity
Carter
1:01:53
opportunity for him. Like he's he's the one without covid. Right. But at
Carter
1:01:57
the same time, he you
Carter
1:02:00
chose her for a reason. He chose her because he thought that she could become the become the president and step into his shoes either in a shorter period of time or in four years if he doesn't choose to run or an eight if he if he thinks he's going to live forever. um so i don't know i think that i would probably um just continue to downplay expectations and talk about donald trump and and how this isn't really the time for you know focusing entirely on on uh on
Carter
1:02:30
on debates but uh we're going to go forward with it because the american people are the most important that's probably all i'd be able to to muster in terms of trying to get this
Zain
1:02:42
Corey, let's end it with you. What are the expectations? What are kind of the credence you're putting on the performance of each of your vice presidential candidates if you are Team Trump and Team Biden?
Corey
1:02:56
I think for either of them, it's going to be an effort in minimization. If you're the Biden campaign, this was your fail-safe, right? If Joe Biden just absolutely bombed in the debate, you You had Kamala Harris to be there to reassure rattled voters and still show some real heft. That didn't appear to be the case. Generally, everybody agrees Joe Biden won that debate. Certainly, more people moved towards Joe Biden than moved towards Donald Trump.
Corey
1:03:24
If you are the Pence campaign, again, you can't make it too big of a deal because your boss is in the hospital or just out of the hospital. And while I am sure that he can put a very workmanlike performance together, other it's not going to be the kind of thing that an election turns on and your boss donald trump is such a small petty man i think you're just creating trouble for yourself and the campaign
Corey
1:03:47
if you have too much lightning which also just seems very unlikely donald trump despite all of his failings is a bit of a well he's a hell of a showman and mike pence is not so there's this is just something to get through for both parties i'm sure both are going to be playing defense fence and not going to be risking a gaffe if you are the biden campaign you're leading by a lot as we've talked about in most polls and if you're the pence or if you're the if you're the trump campaign i'll already call it the campaign yeah
Corey
1:04:18
uh if you're the trump campaign um
Corey
1:04:20
um you do not want to be highlighting that your man's in the hospital let's
Zain
1:04:24
let's move it on to our last segment or over under our lightning round guys are you ready totally okay you said totally first i'm going with you Are you in or out? Well, let's just add some context before I do this. The Green Party has a new leader, Annamie Paul, a lawyer in Toronto, is the new leader of the Green Party. Are you in or out on her running in the Toronto Centre by-election? So as you know, Bill Morneau has vacated that seat. The Liberals have found their quote-unquote star candidate, parachuted her into that race. But are you in or out on the leader of the Green Party, the new leader of the Green Party, running so quickly in the Toronto Centre by-election?
Carter
1:05:01
Well, I think it's a great opportunity. I'm in. I think that she set the stage that she's not expecting to win. She's expecting to get her face out there and really introduce herself to the people of Canada in a way that we've come to expect. You know, we all know who Elizabeth May is. This is her opportunity to get herself known, and I'd say go for it. You know, she doesn't have to win to win. A strong, I
Carter
1:05:29
mean, could you imagine a strong second? That would be amazing. That would be amazing. So victory looks different for her, so she may as well go for it.
Zain
1:05:37
Corey, same question to you. Are you in or out on the new leader of the Green Party, Annamie Paul, running in the Toronto Centre by-election?
Corey
1:05:43
I'm out. No, I think that there is, yeah, a strong second, great. What if it's a dismal third? What are you really saying about the Green Party? There's a chance you might be torpedoing your entire organization or at least setting it back a step or two. Nobody was asking you to do this. There was no need to do this. And doing it just exposes yourself to a lot of risk at a time when, I mean, the Green Party is not the NDP even. It is not the Liberals. It is not the Conservatives. It's not an organization that immediately is just turnkey. you take it over and by the way uh here's your seat you get to run an election now that's not what's going to be happening you are going to be distracted on the campaign trail for uh you know for the next month and uh and to what end like to what benefit i just um i don't know maybe i mean to me it's one of these things where it's high risk high reward but i just don't think the calculations there somebody always wins the lottery doesn't mean it's a smart money move to buy a lottery ticket.
Zain
1:06:42
Nicely said, Corey. I'm sticking with you. Same frame in or out, same frame on in or out. Horgan, week two of the BC general election. We talked about week one, him taking a bit of a beating for calling the election, a bit of a gamble, rolling the dice as numbers for COVID do go up. Well, they are going up, but now it's starting to seem like his leader and Dr. Wilkinson are being defined a bit more. From what you've seen in week two, are you in or out? in the week that he's having, not on the overall campaign, but in the week that NDP leader and Premier John Horgan is having this week?
Corey
1:07:16
Well, I'm in because every week that gets us a little closer to the election without a significant change in the landscape is a good week when you go into an election so far up. You know, he has benefited from, I think, a few missteps by Wilkinson. And also, let's be really real, the entire world being distracted by the same things things we've been distracted on in this podcast. It could very well be British Columbia is going to get to election day and say, oh, shit, it's election day. I've been watching this American thing the entire time. Guess I'm going to vote for Horgan, because that's where I was going to vote before I got my attention distracted by all of this.
Zain
1:07:55
Carter, same question to you. Week two, are you in or out for BC Premier John Horgan?
Carter
1:08:01
I think it's a better week than the first week, So I think you have to be in. He's making headway. And more importantly, he's not losing. So it's a good week for him. I'm in.
Zain
1:08:14
Carter, sticking with you, another prediction question. You know you're going to kill this. I know you're, and of course I put kill this in air quotes.
Zain
1:08:22
Yes or no, are we talking about Trump and his COVID diagnosis this time next week when we record? Is that the headline story in the United States again one week later? We talked about the week-to-week taxes debate, COVID, but does this particular story have the staying power week-to-week? What do you say, yes or no?
Carter
1:08:43
Absolutely, we are. But we're talking about how his release from hospital has immediately been superseded by him running into more super spreader events. As soon as the man starts feeling good, he's going to start going into events and we're all going to be like shaking our head and wondering what the hell is going on. So I'm quite convinced that we'll still be talking about his COVID diagnosis. diagnosis carter
Zain
1:09:06
carter i don't know what your style is sometimes you don't ask answer the question which is like 90 of the time and then 10 of the time you give way too much detail i think it's usually what i ask you to predict something you give us way too much detail about what you think is going to happen no
Carter
1:09:19
no no it's the detail because i'm always right i never get it wrong yeah
Zain
1:09:23
yeah no that's that's exactly right cory same question to you yes or no headline story in the united states if not the world in north america is it trump's uh covet diagnosis this time next week when we record record another episode of this podcast.
Corey
1:09:36
I don't see how it's not just even knowing the general trajectory of this disease. It seems really unlikely that this is in the rear view mirror. Carter's notion of super spreader events that he may or may not get involved with the minute that he's cleared from his COVID diagnosis, which I'm not at all convinced or think is even close to likely that we'll be in that position next week. But when he gets out there, we know Donald Trump's very selfish. He'll say, I'm safe now. I can't get COVID again, or at least it's very unlikely based on all of the evidence that we have. So he's just going to go out there and put together all sorts of very questionable events, it would be my suspicion, if he recovers well enough to get back onto the campaign trail. So yeah, we'll be talking about this one way or the other. This is going to drag for a while. It's hard to imagine this campaign not closing closing out on COVID after Donald Trump's diagnosis.
Zain
1:10:34
Let's end it with a listener question, guys, and a listener question coming to us from Mia Holick, the subject of this review, a five-star review, of course, on iTunes. That's how you ask a listener question. No, there is no other way, people on Twitter. Here we go. Five stars, the subject heading, poor Zane, of course. The podcast is a brilliant example of an extremely put-upon host doing the best with what he's given. Don't disagree. agree. Zayn Velji deserves a Gemini Award for dealing with those other two. Agreed. Here's the question. Since the throne speech featured little in the way of massive expensed items, do you think the fissure between Trudeau and Morneau was purely about the latter falling on his sword over the We Charity scandal? So we'll go back to some Canadian politics with this question by Mihalik. Corey, I'm going to start with you. So the question is, Was the Trudeau-Morneau rift purely about the fissures of we that led to Morneau being ousted?
Corey
1:11:33
Not entirely. I think that after the throne speech, it's hard not to think it was more about that than we were led to believe in the lead up to the throne speech. But let's just put a couple of things out there. No new expense items does not mean that there is peace in the valley when it comes to our finances. And it's quite possible, if not even probable, Morneau was arguing for, how are we going to get back? What is the path? And obviously, the extension of CERB is a very expensive line item. And I could see Morneau not being that enamored with that, right? The other thing is it is also possible, if not probable, that just based on the reporting that was out there, that the Liberals got, if not cold feet, they lost their enthusiasm for spending at the nth degree because a combination of the polls, some anxiety that was out there, and maybe even just a stern talking to from the public service who said, Sir,
Corey
1:12:31
it would be real nice if you didn't bankrupt this country in the next two years. So, you know, it is very likely that the balance was more towards we than we originally thought. But that does not mean that the financial component was not a component. Carter,
Zain
1:12:45
Carter, your take on that question?
Carter
1:12:48
I think that the rift between Morneau and Trudeau begins at the being surprised level. You know, the $42,000 expense, I think, surprised Trudeau. And that rift kind of began there. and it just didn't go away. So that's kind of how I look at it. And people overlaid the financial thing. I always just thought it was the thing that was actually in front of us, not the thing that people were speculating about.
Zain
1:13:19
We'll leave it there, Amiah Hullick. Thank you for your question. If you want to submit your own question, you can easily do so. Go on to iTunes, to the podcast app on your phone or your computer. Leave us a five-star review. Ask your question. If you're lucky, we might read it. get it answered, at least by Corey, on the show. And that's a wrap on episode 824 of
Zain
1:13:40
of The Strategist. My name is Zane Velgey. With me, as always, Corey Hogan, Stephen Carter, and we'll see you next time.