Transcript
SPEAKER_02
0:02
This is The Strategist, episode 823. My name is Zain Velji. With me, as always, Corey Hogan, Stephen Carter. Guys, happy Sunday.
Corey
0:10
Just another day in paradise, Zain.
Corey
0:13
let me tell you
SPEAKER_02
0:15
Jimmy Buckets is going to the finals. That's very exciting for us.
Corey
0:19
Well, this is actually pretty exciting. I'm going to breeze right past that because this is one of those rare moments where my love of politics far eclipses my love of basketball. Hold on,
Carter
0:29
on, that was a basketball reference? I thought he was talking about Trump's taxes.
Corey
0:33
what I'm saying. It's tax day.
Carter
0:35
Oh, okay, I was all confused. I'm better now.
Carter
0:39
didn't know that that was a basketball reference. That was my problem. Corey,
SPEAKER_02
0:43
Corey, you're supposed to back me up on these things, and yet you just disappear into the political vortex, just begging for us to get into the political news of the day. I should just shove the Trump stuff to the third segment. I can do that. I
SPEAKER_02
0:56
I can produce on the fly, Corey. I can make that happen. A
Corey
0:58
A couple of hours ago, Donald Trump's tax returns, our long wait is over. I am pretty excited about this. And I also I've got my first cold in like nine months.
Corey
1:09
I got a COVID test. COVID test came back.
Corey
1:12
was going to say,
SPEAKER_02
1:12
say, good, good. Thank you for letting us know. I'm just letting you know, you can't just throw stuff around these days. Like I've got a cold or, you know, you can't
SPEAKER_02
1:21
that. That's not how it works. That's not how it works. Okay, fine, Corey. We'll just do it. We'll just jump right into it to our first segment. Calgarians do it better. Of course, Calgary's own Suzanne Craig from the New York times. Once again, multiple Pulitzer prize winner has come out with the article, the follow up to her Pulitzer Prize winning article on Trump's tax returns, where she got a sliver of them before. Well, now we are seeing the entire breadth of them. Is that right, Corey? We're seeing the last decade, I believe, last 10 to 12 years of
Corey
1:52
of Trump's tax returns, or
SPEAKER_02
1:54
20 years, sorry, 20 years
Corey
1:55
years of both personal and business. Yeah.
SPEAKER_02
1:59
Which includes some unbelievable highlights, including the fact that Trump out of I believe The 10 out of 15 years paid nothing in taxes. 2016 and 2017 paid $750 of federal taxes. Where do we want to start, Corey? How about you drive us to the details first before we jump into the political ramifications?
Corey
2:21
Yeah, it's really in-depth reporting. They really gave us a volume to digest here. It is the kind of thing that might win you a Pulitzer, might even win you a Pulitzer if you're able to.
Corey
2:33
Yeah, and we might as well talk about it. I'm pretty sure I
SPEAKER_02
2:37
I said it as one of the two. I said it the British way, and I'm pretty sure it still applies.
Corey
2:45
The headline here has to be, though, as you've already said, just that
Corey
2:51
that he doesn't – or at least in his taxes. Can we start there? Donald Trump is not as wealthy as he's often purported to be. Now, there's a big caveat on that, and the New York Times does address it a number of times throughout their very long and comprehensive article. But the reality is taxes are what you tell the government you made, and they are not necessarily reality. And a fellow like Donald Trump, who I suspect many of us would say perhaps lacks the moral fiber that many others out there do, may not be inclined to make it look like he's gotten a ton of money if that means he's going to be paying a ton of taxes. So let's just sort of start there as a bit of a foundational point. But if
Corey
3:30
you look at all of the machinations, if you look at the losses from his individual business units, and he's got a ton of businesses, and it seems like he's just essentially running them parallel and he owns all of them, he's lost a lot of money over the last bit. And that is not really in depreciation, despite what he often claims. It is just he's lost a lot of money in the last bit. So Donald Trump perhaps was not in great financial straits before he became U.S. president. I mean, let's be clear, not in great financial straits is he's not the billionaire he pretends to be, not that he actually has any real problems in the world. He's still got an awful lot of money and an awful number of assets. But yeah, the emperor's clothes, you
Corey
4:16
maybe they're not invisible, but maybe they're seers. Maybe they're not Saks Fifth Avenue, as he always claimed.
SPEAKER_02
4:24
The emperor's clothes are seers. That's not bad. That's a pretty decent save. I'm like, oh, Corey really let the gas out of that one going nowhere. Carter, what's going on? What do you make of this? Corey's right, an unbelievably comprehensive piece put out by the New York Times on Trump's tax filings, tax returns.
SPEAKER_02
4:48
Talk to me about what you saw in them, and then let's quickly go to the political ramifications in this extremely strange T-40-some day cycle we have remaining.
Carter
4:56
Let's start with the number that jumps out, and that's the $750. And the problem with $750 is that everybody can relate to $750. This is where we ran into problems with the no-meat committee in Alberta. And for those who don't know, the no-meat committee in Alberta was essentially, back in the day, Alberta's MLA got paid a
SPEAKER_02
5:16
a little bit more.
Carter
5:18
Yeah, well, okay, something like that. But they got paid a little bit extra for attending the – that's good, Zane. Very funny. I laughed inside. But they got
Carter
5:30
got paid extra every month for attending – for being a part of a committee. Well, this committee didn't meet for two years and people still got paid $1,000 a month. The problem with that is everybody knows what $1,000 a month would mean. Everybody understands what $1,000 a month would mean to their lives. Well, I'll tell you something. Every American that paid more than $750 in tax last year knows what a big advantage it would be to
Carter
5:57
to only have to pay $750 worth of taxes. This is now real for people in a different way than Donald Trump's billions of dollars in assets, billions of dollars or millions of dollars in earned income. That doesn't mean much. $750 in taxes, that means a lot because I understand it. I can relate to it. And I know Corey, for example, pays $750 a day in taxes. That's the kind of money he pulls down. So when you're paying that kind of taxes, you can be a little bit bitter about the billionaire next door who paid sweet fuck all.
SPEAKER_02
6:35
You know what else was a no-meat committee? Trump steaks. Trump steaks was also a no-meat committee. That's
Carter
6:41
That's great. That was better. That was better. You had a little time to work on that. That was good. I
SPEAKER_02
6:44
I should do this professionally. I really say so. Carter, you're absolutely right. Right. You know, that 750 number is the one that is jumping out. You know, there's there's been already calculations on on on federal income tax for truck drivers, 10K, ER nurse, 8K, teacher, 6K, right? Grocery store cashier, fifteen hundred bucks. Right. So paying more tax federal income taxes than a grocery store cashier in the United States on average. Corey, do you agree with Carter? Is that the focal point of this exhaustive document? Is that what you're plucking out, for example, if you're the Democrats?
Corey
7:18
Well, it might be the punchline. I don't know if it's the biggest takeaway for me personally, but certainly it's the one that most lends itself to being in an advertisement, in being a line in the debates coming up this week. $750, Stephen's exactly right. That's the kind of money you can wrap your head around fairly easily. And by the way, we sort of blew past it, but Trump paid $750 in taxes in 2016 and 2017. Those were, you know, years he was running and year he was president, respectively.
Corey
7:44
The thing about that number, too, is it could have been zero. So if you read through the reporting, he effectively just paid taxes so that he could say, I paid taxes. I think that's one of the more interesting things here. He's obviously aware of what it looks like, and he was trying to make sure that under oath, I guess, for lack of better. he could say, I pay taxes, I pay taxes as president. And, you know, I made a huge amount of money, both things true, maybe missing the fact that he also spent a huge amount of money. And he paid very little tax. But yeah, I mean, it's easily the one that you can wrap your head around. And it's going to be in an ad near you instantly.
SPEAKER_02
8:24
Carter, let's talk about political ramifications. Before we talk about political strategy. Let's start there. ramifications. We've already got so much shit in this cycle. I mean, have we forgotten about COVID, by the way? Like, Jesus Christ, COVID is like not even on the back burner. It's on the behind the back burner. Good news,
Corey
8:42
news, I don't have COVID, Zane. Oh,
SPEAKER_02
8:45
Oh, thanks. Just to let you know, trademarked behind the back burner, which is something that I will trademark and coin as a phrase that used incessantly there on in. But Carter, political ramifications. Amy Coney Barrett now being nominated. COVID. COVID, you know, the upcoming debates on Tuesday. Wrap this up from an analysis perspective for me. What are the ramifications of these tax returns going to be?
Carter
9:07
Well, let's start with what the ramifications aren't going to be. There is not going to be a slew of Trump supporters that suddenly switch sides. There's not going to be a group of people who go, oh, this is the tipping point. You know, the 200,000 Americans that died, I'm fine with that. I'm cool with, you know, the lunacy that pops out of his mouth every single day. I'm fine with him, you know, being modestly racist. I'm fine with all those other things. But this, not paying taxes, I'm out of here. They'll find a way to justify it. They'll find a way to make him the hero that only paid $750 worth of taxes. I wish I could be more like Trump. So they're not going to switch sides. sides.
Carter
9:48
What Biden's team needs to be able to do is to take this and pump up the fury of his team. I mean, there's an enthusiasm question.
Carter
9:59
Which side is most likely to go to the polls? And when I look at the lineups that are occurring in the early voting states, I think that the mail-in ballots and the lineups in person are showing a degree of Biden enthusiasm. But I think that. I don't know that Biden needs to take this and every other gaffe that happens in the next 30 odd days and turn that into a turnout opportunity for his base. You know, there's $750 or 750 reasons to vote. You know, let's and if you're ever going to bring in a wealth tax, today's the day, right? Like this week is the week to bring in Elizabeth Warren's. How did she phrase it, Corey? I can't I can't remember, 2% or 2 cent wealth tax. Percent on every
SPEAKER_02
10:47
every dollar for $100 million or something like that? Yeah,
Carter
10:49
Yeah, but she's got a way of saying it that's just brilliant. I'll try and look that up as we're chatting here. But there's opportunities here to turn on a bunch of progressive voters, a bunch of people who have been wronged that were already in your camp. I think there is virtually no redemption for the Trump voter. They're not going to switch no matter what happens in the final days.
SPEAKER_02
11:14
Carter, I'm going to pick up on a few of your threads on Democratic strategy in a second. Corey, political ramifications. Carter said what it's not going to be. Anything to add to that list from what it is or won't be in your mind?
Corey
11:26
There is going to be a type of voter who will be disenchanted by this, who believe that Trump would have paid taxes as president. But you've got to keep in mind, this is in some ways asked and answered. Donald Trump has long been on the record of saying that people who pay taxes are suckers, effectively, and
Corey
11:41
and that he loves depreciation because that's how he – like, at a certain point, it becomes too complicated to say, no, this guy's just running his businesses badly. He's gotten a couple of lucky breaks. He made a ton of money with The Apprentice. Basically, everything else he touches, with a few exceptions, has turned to shit. but uh you know there's enough huge numbers out there of his income or at least revenue i should say even with this tax return that people will legitimately say boy this guy's super rich and he paid almost no tax but you want to know the interesting thing he in large part did that for the last 10 years because of a tax change that was brought in under obama so trump can continue a narrative that he began in the 2016 campaign which is yeah you're right i
Corey
12:22
i pay way less tax than i should i know the system i've worked the system only i can fix the system so guys like me can't screw you anymore uh this is not inconsistent with what he said before i so there's not going to be a ton of voters out there that change their minds but there might be a few carter
SPEAKER_02
12:37
carter respond to that and then we'll talk democratic strategy well
Carter
12:40
well the problem with that is that you know that was the message in the first election right if you recall trump's uh trump came in on this kind of populist i can help you messaging like as as cory has explained um the problem is that the very first piece of legislation that they brought in helped other guys, not me, right? Like the average Trump voter didn't see much in the way of an income tax savings, whereas the rich guys like Trump did
Carter
13:05
did see a significant savings. So, you know, you don't bring in, you
Carter
13:09
you know, tax savings for billionaires and then expect
Carter
13:14
expect that you're going to get a benefit on the back end. The problem with the United States is everybody expects to be a millionaire at some point. So they all vote for those low taxes on millionaires so that when they're millionaires, they can keep all their money. There's just very few of them wind up in that space.
SPEAKER_02
13:32
Carter, let's talk about the Democratic strategy. You said lean into the wealth tax. What would you say more broadly to Team Biden right now about the issue? Would you say this is an issue to embrace amongst a plethora of other ones? Would Would you tell them to refocus on Supreme Court for the money and the fundraising? Would you say this is all about COVID? How are you now assessing this within the cocktail of options that you have? Because often too many options is a recipe for disaster, not success. So tell me your political sort of analysis or take or advice for the Democrats with this now presented to them.
Carter
14:11
one word for the Biden campaign, and that's discipline. discipline.
Carter
14:15
You have to, you know, every time something like this pops up, you want to hit it like the pinata in your backyard. You just want to smack that sucker and open up all the candy that it holds inside of it. It doesn't hold that much candy. It's not that big a deal. Everybody else can carry the water on this thing. We've said it on You the People a whole bunch of times, our other podcast, you know, the talk specifically about American politics. It comes out every Thursday. Make sure you listen. But the Democrats need to constantly phrase the impact of this election on the individual voter. We can't be talking about Trump and Trump's failures all the time. How does that impact me as a voter? How does that impact me as a citizen? The voters have a selfish intent, and that selfish intent is about trying to make sure that they get the best possible government for their individual circumstance how does trump's tax returns make things better for me i understand that he's able to game the system i understand that he's able to fuck me over but that doesn't make things better so i would focus on on kids
Carter
15:18
kids going back to school i
Carter
15:20
i would focus on on covid concerns health care concerns the aca potentially being gutted seven days after after, seven
Carter
15:27
seven days after the election, with a six to three court that's been stacked by the Republicans, that I can even get my head around. But talking about, talking too much about Trump's tax returns, the media is going to carry this for you. The general population is going to carry this for you. This is a big story. It's going to go everywhere it needs to go all by itself. It doesn't need the support of the Biden, the Biden campaign. pain.
SPEAKER_02
15:54
So Carter, am I right in understanding that your one word, discipline, expands to have discipline, don't deal with this, let others do it, like others do your dirty work on this particular file?
Carter
16:05
Stay in your lane. Do not move into every wonderful opportunity that Trump offers up every day. This is just one more day. I mean, every day Trump does something that could take you out of your message box, stay in your message box, stay in your lane, have the discipline that's required.
SPEAKER_02
16:24
Corey, do you agree? Or is this a particularly differentiating story that helps you with an existing narrative or serve as a proof point to what you're already saying is perhaps in your message box already?
Corey
16:38
Well, I think it reinforces some core Biden messaging. So I I wouldn't be as shy about it as Stephen, but I certainly wouldn't get into even the rabbit holes we've gotten into here. This is really – the guy has
Corey
16:52
has given billionaires all of these tax breaks. He himself paid $750 in taxes the same year that – almost judo. Use his own numbers against him. The same year that he claimed X number hundreds of millions of dollars in revenue, he paid $750 in taxes. This is Donald Trump's America. This is what we've gotten from four years of Donald Trump. And I wouldn't go too much further than that. I would let the follow up stories fall out of it. I would have people start saying, hey, this doesn't really, you
Corey
17:22
you know, jive with what he said on these reports to New York State or whatever. Let the investigative reporters and let those groups do those things. you
Corey
17:29
you just stick on the fact that this guy paid 750 dollars in taxes because that is reinforcing of that overarching you know that battle for the soul of a nation message that that's good stuff that's reinforcing of that so i wouldn't necessarily pull away from it too far i would also um be waiting with glee for the lincoln project ads about this with their audience of one we've talked about i'm not necessarily a big fan of this but uh the who leaked it donald donald you've got leakers from inside. The Times has implied that it was multiple leakers.
Corey
18:01
Donald, it's all unraveling on you. You've got no money left. You're going to be going to jail. This is coming. This ad is coming. And I look forward to watching it, even though I still question their usefulness with the general public.
SPEAKER_02
18:12
Yeah. And by the way, as a side note, they have an amazing Lindsey Graham ad, very much of Sarah McLachlan. I shouldn't say very much. A Sarah McLachlan song playing in in the background as Lindsey Graham begs for donations, using his words against him. You know, I want to discuss this wealth tax idea. Carter, you know, it is interesting in my mind. How do you reconcile? You said, if you wanted to do a wealth tax, now's the time to do it. Taxes are on the front burner. Do you get any sense that Team Biden wants and has that appetite? And how do they perhaps reconcile staying in their message box with discussing something like a wealth tax if they do?
Carter
18:51
Well, I think that one of the ways to talk about it is that you're getting screwed by them, right? So what Corey has just done is showed how they get by in the American system, right? They get by in the American system by making millions of dollars and paying $750. You get by in the American system by paying your taxes every two weeks. Jeff Bezos made more money, Bill Gates made more money during the pandemic than you're ever going to see. Elon Musk has made more money than you're ever going to see in your entire life you can just go through every single billionaire and they're making more money and you're making less and your job's less secure and
Carter
19:28
and a wealth tax allows it to um to
Carter
19:32
to kind of come through and uh and change the the the the power if you will um people feel
Carter
19:41
feel like the the system is inequitable and to a degree it is
Carter
19:47
um but being able to to show that inequity and then come after people who have more than you well i believe that's the the basis of the you know the french revolution um you can do this without chopping anybody's heads off then you should probably try and do that um this is a common enemy one of the challenges biden's going to have when he when he finishes this is how does he bring the country together again and a wealth tax might actually change who's the enemy um in a a way that the Republicans and some of the, you know, the high school educated white voters that are strongly supporting Donald Trump may be able to get behind because a large portion of the Trump electorate voted for Trump to get these fuckers. It didn't really, you know, the irony was lost on them that he was one of these fuckers, but he said the right words. He had a different type of populism in 2016 than he has now. Now, Hillary Clinton represented that group that everybody was trying to get. And that's why they went after her.
Carter
20:47
So the wealth tax gives you that very different opportunity.
SPEAKER_02
20:52
Carter, just before Corey does it, Jeff Bezos and Jeff Bezos, both could face a wealth tax. Just so you know.
SPEAKER_02
21:02
winner, Jeff Bezos. I
Carter
21:04
I was going to have your back on the whole pronunciation issue. And now you can go fuck yourself, is what can happen.
SPEAKER_02
21:11
Corey, finish us off before we quickly do a drive-by on what Trump's strategy looks like. Well, Tex, yay, nay at this moment? Would you lean into it? Would you not?
Corey
21:21
I, it's a political winner. It doesn't hurt. And if you were going to talk about it, now's the time to talk about it. If it was not on your agenda to at least pull forward at some point in the next 35 days, then don't, don't change your, don't change your entire strategy. Don't start talking about new policy just because this has happened. I think that would actually be falling into the trap that Stephen cautioned us against in his answer not too long ago. But if you were going to do it, yeah, absolutely. Hook it into the news right now. Biden has talked about this idea of two Americas, one that works for the wealthy or one that works for everybody, something like that.
Corey
21:58
If that was a major plank that was going to be talked about in two weeks, talk about it this week because you've got the news of the day to help you with it. But don't throw out the rundown just because you've got some reporting by the New York Times.
SPEAKER_02
22:12
Corey, sticking with you, Trump's strategy on this, it's come out. He did a press conference today to try to help clear up some of the information. Of course, he used it as a bully pulpit to attack the media and call it fake news. Is there anything you can do if you're Trump right now? What do you try to do? Change the channel aggressively to something else? What are you advising?
Corey
22:31
I don't know if I would have advised what he did, which is, I think, generally true whenever Trump goes to a microphone, because it becomes pretty easy to say, well, put up or shut shut up. If you're saying that you have paid taxes, let's see the
Corey
22:42
the document. Let's see the receipts here, man. Let's see your last two years of tax returns. Let's figure this out. But if I were him, I probably would have been a little bit more general and just said, this is nonsense. Another unsourced report from the New York Times. How much did I pay in taxes? Well, I'll tell you when I'm done being audited by the IRS. That is ongoing right now. And then I would have said, yeah, the tax code is full of loopholes. Look at Barack Obama. He He created an enormous one, as the Times talked about in there. Let's talk about how you've been screwed by insiders like Joe Biden, who's been in the beltway for 40 years. That is probably more along the lines of what I would have done than what he did. What he did was kind of coming out and deny everything. You know, lash out, lash out, lash out, create this kind of sense. Maybe it's true, maybe it's not among his supporters, right? But the problem is there's a pretty easy way to resolve this, which is, is,
Corey
23:37
Donald, if these aren't your tax returns, show us your fucking tax returns. And so he's got to be a little careful about how much he leans into this no, because this could easily be resolved if he just showed them to people.
SPEAKER_02
23:48
Carter, Trump strategy, what do you think?
Carter
23:50
Well, his same strategy as always. We'll have a new issue in two days that will make us forget about this issue today. He doesn't solve an issue before he moves into the next issue. He uses the next issue to move out of the previously unsolvable issue. So at some point in the next 24 to 48 hours, there's going to be another issue that pushes this thing out of the news and everybody will run after it. Now, this happens to be coming just before the debates, two days before the debates. yeah so so maybe this has a little bit longer life cycle but i doubt it i doubt that that this is the thing that everybody's focused on at the at the debates uh just because the history has shown history
Carter
24:31
history has shown us that the way that trump gets out of these things is just to have another thing come and we can't remember uh you know each thing that happens each thing that happens each you know i always try and bring up steve bannon being arrested you know steve bannon was arrested
Carter
24:48
was a lifetime ago that was what three weeks ago four weeks ago wasn't even four weeks ago was not a month ago that steve bannon was arrested no one remembers no one will remember this either although the biden campaign does have i paid more taxes than trump stickers available now for five dollars so i'm buying a couple for cory we're
SPEAKER_02
25:09
we're going to cover a lot more of this in are you the people podcast which is going to come to you on tuesday right i'm just making that commitment for us we're going to do a post debate podcast to cover what we saw in that first presidential debate so subscribe to you the people uh or don't be a sucker that's what cory would say right just don't just don't be a fucking loser subscribe to our podcast cory i'm giving the hard sell is this good you feel like the people
Corey
25:31
people are appreciating nice okay good yeah that's super let's
SPEAKER_02
25:34
let's move it on to our next segment how the west was won guys we're going to be talking about bc politics we have an election on our hands and maybe cory i'll turn to you why do we have an an election on our hands, because it seems like Premier John Horgan has called an election. Tell us how it does
Corey
25:49
does seem that does.
SPEAKER_02
25:51
Yeah, it does. It does seem that way. I'm just checking my notes. That is the process. Good idea to call an election. He still seems to be 17 points up, but maybe give us your overarching analysis on what triggered why we're here.
Corey
26:05
Well, opportunity, Zane, in a word, opportunity. The BCNDP are well up in the polls, as you've alluded to and they see this as perhaps the opportunity to go forward and lock that into a true majority instead of as um as our listeners will recall this kind of faux majority that they currently have being propped up by the the bc greens so um that was supposed to be a relatively permanent state of affairs the deal with the the greens was that there
Corey
26:35
there would not be an election before october 2021 which is the fixed election date in british columbia for the next election and
Corey
26:41
and obviously that's not happening now we're going to the polls and of course this has well i i i'm sure we'll get into it but this has resulted in in some labors by the bcndp to explain why now during a pandemic when they had a stable coalition or not coalition but a stable uh agreement um it didn't necessitate this there
Corey
27:01
there is a few there are a few things on the horizon where john horgan may maybe saying, I'd rather go now, right? One of them is Site C. They're expecting some big cost overrides or overruns next year, potentially. There is the fact that the pandemic bump will not last forever. We've talked about these pandemic bumps being rather, you don't get used to them, right? They're a sugar high.
Corey
27:23
And you can't count on it being there in January. Let's put it that way.
Corey
27:27
And then there's just the simple reality that this is all very expensive. So when the next budget comes out, you're going to see some red ink. the way that B.C. has not actually seen in a while. And that could change people's calculations and make them in a more small-c conservative point of mind. So why
Corey
27:44
not? Strike while the iron's hot, I guess. And that's what Horgan made the calculation to do. He determined that, I suspect in part because in New Brunswick it didn't end up wrecking the premier, that this can be done. And this can be done without incurring a massive political penalty.
SPEAKER_02
28:00
Carter, right move, wrong move? What do you think? And do you think, to Corey's point, Horgan took cues from what happened out east?
Carter
28:06
I think that absolutely he took cues from what happened out east. But I think that those cues are different in British Columbia than they were in New Brunswick. You
Carter
28:13
You know, New Brunswick's minority government was a little less stable. It had more friction through the pandemic, and it was having a harder time governing. This is not the case in British Columbia. British Columbia has, you know, the lesson
Carter
28:28
lesson that has been taught over at the federal government from Stephen Harper to John Cretchen to others, when you have a minority, it's just govern like you've got a majority. And that is a great way of managing your government, proven,
Carter
28:45
proven, you know, the exception to the rule being Joe Clark. but nonetheless if you if you govern like you've got a majority um the people see you as having the majority and see you as the leader Horgan
Carter
28:56
Horgan calling this election I think is it would be more akin to what would have happened if if Justin Trudeau called an election because you've still you've got a big bump for the government the problem is the big bump for the government is about yesterday's performance not tomorrow's performance right so the COVID the problem with the COVID bump is that it's all well and good to have a COVID bump, you
Carter
29:18
you know, back in the day for how you manage the COVID situation. But the COVID situation isn't gone.
Carter
29:25
The COVID situation continues and we are now moving into what, you know, the prime minister is rightfully called the beginning of the second wave. And I'm not sure four weeks from now if this is still the case where premiers premiers across the country, with the notable exception of Jason Kenney, get a bump from their management of this disease. It is just as likely, in my mind, that the first wave, we thought they managed it well, the second wave, less so. And now you're in the middle of an election and there's no way out except to go to the voters and get them to render their judgment.
SPEAKER_02
30:05
Coy, you want to respond to that?
Corey
30:18
if this becomes a big, overwhelming narrative, John Horgan is going to have to answer an awful lot of questions as to why he felt the need to do this now. In particular, if people start getting a little bit squirrely about whether you can vote safely.
SPEAKER_02
30:46
So guys, both of you, given what you've just couched as considerations and context, if you were in the position of advising Horgan, and you know everything you do right now, would you have still said go? Would you have still seen this as a green light opportunity? Carter, I'll go to you first for a very quick response. Well,
Carter
31:01
Well, I think that the rationale
Carter
31:03
rationale was that we're
Carter
31:07
we're strong and they're weak, right, which is usually what happens when a minority government folds. And they looked at Wilkinson and they looked at how he managed his behavior through the pandemic, which I think for the most part, the BC Liberals were supportive of the BC government going through the pandemic response. response because, you know, Andrew Wilkinson's a doctor and wanted to have a strong health-related response.
Carter
31:36
So that made him look weak. I'm not sure that he is as weak as he looks. And that's where I would have probably been more cautious. I think I've said on this podcast that I didn't think that the prime minister should call an election. The prime minister has now kind of come to that same conclusion and isn't calling an election. And at least they put it off for six months in some some unidentified person has seemingly pushed it off by six months um i i just think that the volatility is too high volatility in canadian elections is much different than the american elections we don't have people who are baked in and when you look at the poll that just came out uh from insights west uh you're seeing that the the largest group of people in the province uh aren't voting for the ndp what they're saying is uh we wish there wasn't an election election so
Carter
32:24
so 58 of the pc population saying we wish there wasn't an election and only 41 of the population saying yeah i'm with john horgan um you got 12 going with the uh the conservatives 29 going with uh uh
Carter
32:38
uh with the liberals all hell could break loose you know like this is not a this is not a a guarantee it's not a slam dunk you're not coming at this with 55 of the of the the vote in a four-way race. You're coming at this with, you know, 41% at your peak. And I'm suspecting day one of the campaign may be Horgan's best day.
SPEAKER_02
33:01
Corey, same thing. That was Carter's short answer. Same thing.
SPEAKER_02
33:06
From all you know, and now the additional context Carter has added, would you have advised him to do the same, yes or no?
Corey
33:13
Oh, well, look, smart money is Horgan wins And so assuming you're at a go-no-go right now, yeah, I guess. Although I really – like I said, you're going to – it's going to be one of the all-time political
Corey
33:25
political cautionary tales if he manages to lose this one, right? And let's not forget the BC NDP have a bit of a history of polling higher on occasion than they end up getting on election day.
Corey
33:36
Here's what I would say though. Adrian
SPEAKER_02
33:37
Adrian Dix, Christopher Clark. Yeah, I am. Yeah.
Corey
33:39
Yeah. Here's what I would say. A second
Corey
33:43
second wave in the fall was the most predictable prediction made ever since the first wave, when the numbers were declining. And of course, Carter
SPEAKER_02
33:50
Carter said it was not going to happen. I just want everyone to know that.
Corey
33:56
So Carter mentioned an Insights West poll showing the NDP up 42.29. We didn't mention the numbers, but that's what they were. Insights West had them up 47.29 in June, late June. I guess my point is, why didn't they go over the summer before all of the kids were going back in school? Why didn't they take a similar time into New Brunswick and run this election basically hitting the polls now or slightly before now before these numbers start getting away in a big way? Because that's the real risk. And I guess that's the real probability is more to the point. It's always the risk. It was the risk if you were to call it in June, July
Corey
34:33
July or August, but it's the probability now that you're looking for an election in October.
SPEAKER_02
34:39
carter over to you wilkinson strategy if you're him right now let's say you're down 17 you're down 10 whatever it is you're down right
SPEAKER_02
34:46
right you're you're not leading uh what is your strategy right now do you lean into the the health angle as you alluded to earlier is there what's your lane uh and what's your message box uh and i know we're staying high level because i think this is a great introduction to bc and we can discuss more as the weeks go on but overarching wilkinson strategy right now what does the come from behind campaign look like no
Carter
35:09
no more mr nice guy i
Carter
35:10
i was helping this government because it was in the best interest of of of british colombians uh we were making sure that we could put forward the best possible health uh decisions now let me show you all the ways that they that john horgan has failed you uh from the beginning of this pandemic he
Carter
35:25
he hasn't done he didn't do the right thing on day one day two day three day four and he's not doing the right thing now i was there to support the government because i was there to support the people of british columbia as i will be when i'm your next premier and
Carter
35:38
i would beat the fuck i'd make this the most negative campaign possible because at some point kids
Carter
35:44
kids are going to start getting sick kids are home right now in quarantine right like kids that went to school are home now uh are the schools still open after thanksgiving you know thanksgiving's the what the weekend of the 10th or something the 11th um that's a super spreader event where
Carter
36:00
where are we two weeks after that As Corey wipes his runny nose, you know, that that where are we two weeks after that? You know, do we have an influx of cases? And that's when we vote, right?
Carter
36:11
right? That's when we vote. You know, we've talked before, in earlier durations of this podcast, about how important Thanksgiving is in a in a fall campaign. When
Carter
36:23
When people come together, this is going to mean something totally different for this campaign. So Wilkinson, if Wilkinson's smart, he is going negative, he is bringing this to, he's going negative on day one. I wouldn't even bring forward a policy other than I would never have put you in this frickin' election. I put the people of British Columbia first, and that means I wouldn't have done this damned election. I didn't vote against this government falling. I would be supporting this government today because that's in the best interest of the British Columbian people. And that's
Carter
36:54
that's what I would do. That's my strategy.
SPEAKER_02
36:57
Corey, same question to you. How much mileage or kilometerage is there in the concept of we shouldn't be having this election in the first place if you're Wilkinson? Is that what you're milking? And can you do that till now to the end?
Corey
37:13
well i don't know that's a that's an open question for me the the problem with that strategy is it really is putting your chips somewhere you are you're almost quote-unquote hoping not hoping but you know what i'm saying you're you're basically saying this thing is going to get worse and so it was a bad idea for horkin to call the election now if things don't get worse if the school is all sort of stabilized and everything calms down then
Corey
37:36
then then that's not going to be a particularly winning strategy and if that's all you're hanging your hat on you're in an awful lot of trouble So I do think it needs to be a little more multidimensional than that, though I do take Stephen's point. And as he was talking, it seemed pretty cool to me, frankly, especially given Wilkinson's background as a physician.
Corey
37:54
Now, all of that said, I think that the real strategy for him has to be, yes, the unnecessariness of this election for sure. Absolutely, we are only in this because of Horgan's vanity and his desire to get to a majority. But there are a number of other areas where the government is potentially exposed. And maybe you have to say, well, John, if you want to have an election about what's to come, let's have an election about what's to come. and start putting a bit more of the economic twist on it because there is a reality here, which is that there is going to be a lot of hurt. Even though we sit in Alberta, and in Alberta job losses have been higher,
Corey
38:36
job losses are pretty significant anywhere in the country, and maybe it's time to talk about the economy or at least try to get outside of the NDP message box. I think as long as they're talking about health care,
Corey
38:48
if things go well. In general, I believe that people trust the New Democrats more with healthcare than the BC Liberals. I mean, I think that's, that's what John Horgan would be running against if he tried to make this all about COVID-19. So that would be the big risk with that strategy.
SPEAKER_02
39:04
Carter, if you're Horgan, in a nutshell, what is your strategy? Is it you can't talk about opportunity, you can't talk about the fact that getting a majority and consolidating power is easier key message what's your what's your ballot box question or what's your message frame so to speak i
Carter
39:20
think the message frame has been that uh they've done a better job than the liberals did right and and trying to remind people uh
Carter
39:27
why they voted ndp in 2017 uh more than trying to focus on what they why they should vote for the ndp in 2020 um you know they had a the usual output of all the things that the government's going to do for people uh in the uh hours before the election call. But, you know, I just think that this is a rerun of 2017 in Horgan's mind, and he can win that way. But he's not up against Christy Clark. He's up against Andrew Wilkinson. And on some levels, that's, I think, easier for him because Andrew Wilkinson hasn't
Carter
40:01
hasn't taken much time to define himself with the British Columbia public over the past, you know, three years. So this is like like organ trying to take on christy clark again in 2017 from my read um you know watching the announcements coming out and and the in the government you know the government's basically saying more of the same um and you don't want to go back to where you were in 2017 yeah
SPEAKER_02
40:28
yeah their slogan is about moving forward together you know another classic progressive
Carter
40:32
progressive haven't we all used that slogan yeah
SPEAKER_02
40:35
moving forward together fighting for you forward fighting uh fighting with forwardness progress forward hate
SPEAKER_02
40:44
yet you've used them we all have cory same question to you the horgan strategy high level can't be about consolidating power can it well
Corey
40:54
well in a way isn't it he's saying that this is uh he's looking for a majority mandate because of the the difficult things to come and they need a strong majority government in order to be able to to
Corey
41:05
to make the the changes that need to be made and and one of the i think more hilarious things that has come out of this election in the first seven days is this idea that they couldn't just continue to go forward with their agreement with the greens because they wanted to bring in ten dollar a day child care and the greens were in the way of that in some sort of big fashion which seems a bit much to me seems a little unlikely and in fact there's a lot of quotes uh well a lot might be an exaggeration but there are quotes from bc ministers uh praising the greens on their approach to child care from not you know from happier times shall we say not too long ago and
Corey
41:39
and so he really is trying to make this all about the um you know the need the need for stability and the need to move forward now there's a great irony in that because an election is a destabilizing event almost by definition and
Corey
41:51
and and you know he to kind of say hey don't change horses in midstream in
Corey
41:55
in a way i think my rejoinder is okay don't walk into a fucking stream in a thunderstorm exactly like like what what are you doing? And
Corey
42:00
And I do think, actually, this is something that Horgan has to be very careful with.
Corey
42:05
And it is that this does seem to be a bit of a Seinfeld election. I was just gonna
Corey
42:10
Yeah, nobody can really say what this is about. It seems to be an election about nothing. Well,
SPEAKER_02
42:14
Well, it seems to be an election about the election. And if Wilkinson leans into a strategy about talking about why we're having this election, and one guy justifying the election, you know, we've effectively passed the timeline, and people are voting on a referendum of whether whether we wanted to have this election.
Corey
42:31
is that— It's very meta. It's the most 2020 way we could have this
Carter
42:34
election. But that's the worst outcome possible for Horgan. I mean, I mentioned about the top, you know, like 51% of the people saying they don't want an election now, or 58% or whatever the number was. I don't have it in front of me anymore. You know, that's
Carter
42:49
that's the worst possible ballot question for Horgan. And the problem that he has right now is he hasn't defined the best possible ballot question for Horgan. And you know what? Campaigns that don't have the right ballot question lose. That's just the way it works. Now, I'm not predicting a loss. I'm just saying that they're not starting off on the strongest foot. I will
Carter
43:12
will predict incorrectly in a coming podcast.
SPEAKER_02
43:17
Yes, when we do a deeper dive on BC. But what I'm hearing you say, Carter, is that this can't be an election where where Horgan for two weeks plus is trying to justify why we're here unsuccessfully. Because I think the first seven days, despite his lead, is about justifying why we're here in the first place. And it has been going well. Right.
Carter
43:33
Right. And imagine the worst case scenario, he's trying to define it on that. And then in the next seven to 10 days, the bigger question arises, and that's COVID. And now he's running an election in a nasty time of COVID. And all hell breaks loose. Like He has the potential to move from bad question to worst question to worst question to worst question by the time he gets to the election day.
SPEAKER_02
43:58
Corey, finish us off here.
Corey
44:00
Yeah, the why are we here critique is strong. And John Horgan has not had a particularly compelling week from my perch, at least, admittedly one province over, of explaining why in the world there is an election right now. And I want to broaden this point and just say this has not been a good first week for the BC NDP. Their launch was kind of a little awkward looking. Many of the tactics, you know, Horgan calling, you know, the one a day he's going to call some random supporter is already starting to run a little thin. And I guess this is the other layer that we're almost sort of just taking for granted. But let's talk about it at least briefly and maybe talk about it longer another day.
Corey
44:37
Campaigning looks a little different during COVID-19 and the tactics are new. And that means there are going to be people who screw up left, right and center. And the risk of gaffes, I think, has got to be considered an awful lot higher this election than in other elections. And I haven't been very impressed. I just don't know that the B.C. NDP staff,
Corey
44:56
staff, many of which I think very highly of, have risen to the occasion yet. You know, I'm just I'm so surprised they called this election.
Corey
45:03
They should have all the preparation in the world. They should be absolutely ready to roll. So I'm a bit befuddled, shall we say, about how this first week has rolled out for John Horgan.
SPEAKER_02
45:12
We'll leave that there on the B.C. side. Corey, it's as if you and I are reading from a script. I want to do a special in the coming weeks where we deep dive on BC thoroughly, talk to some of the folks that perhaps are on some of the sides of this campaign or are affiliated, and do what you just said, which is analyze the tactics and the strategies in our COVID environment, what they look like, what we see from our perch that's working, that isn't working. I think there's a lot to discuss there as we discuss what campaigning not just looks like in 2020, what campaign looks like in our version of 2020, which is this COVID environment.
Corey
45:46
great. It's the kind of work that can get you a Pulitzer, there's a. Yeah,
SPEAKER_02
45:49
Yeah, and I look forward to it. And of course, that podcast is going to be sponsored by Amazon, Amazon Warehouses, Jeff Bezos at Amazon will, of course, be our signature sponsor.
SPEAKER_02
46:00
It's Amazon. That is correct. Correct. Let's move it to our next segment. Words, words, words from the throne. Guys, there was so much that we got from the speech from the throne. And so just to distill it, I'm going to do another classic game that we haven't done for a while. We're going to do up, down, delta. Now, you may not remember this, but here's what it simply is. I will give you a figure or a party, in this case, Trudeau. What did you see from the speech? And what you will do is you give me a thumbs up, a thumbs down and a delta as in what you would have changed. So, you need to give me an up or down and what you would have changed. So, either way, it's up or down and what you would change. So, Corey, let's start with you. We had a ton of speculation into this speech. Was Trudeau going to take the practical bucket? Was he going to take the ambitious bucket? At the end of the day, from what you heard, the speech alone, because I know there's another element I want to discuss about Trudeau, but from the speech alone, up or down, and then what you would have changed. What's the delta?
Corey
46:56
uh up and uh what i would have changed is the expectation game ahead of time because i think the pundit class at least before i say a week before was expecting something bigger and we talked about this green transformation that didn't really materialize in a big way there
Corey
47:11
there was lip service to it but i don't believe that it necessarily hit the level that was perhaps perhaps being foreshadowed before.
Corey
47:19
you know, I think I'm
Corey
47:23
I'm glad they didn't take the big swing. Let's put it that way. I think that would have would have played into a very chaotic fall. And, and we're all better off just sort of sitting tight for six months. Corey,
SPEAKER_02
47:33
Corey, you didn't see this as a big swing with pharma care, child care, you know, ending chronic homelessness, all part of these social policy issues? No, Zane, I'm old enough to remember all
Corey
47:43
all of the other times the liberals have promised pharma
Corey
47:46
And childcare. So until it actually happens, you know, we await to be surprised. Carter,
SPEAKER_02
47:51
Carter, up, down, delta on the Trudeau speech from the throne. I
Carter
47:54
I was going to give the same kind of up
Carter
47:59
that Corey did with the expectation game. The expectations were all blown out of proportion, and we wound up with something significantly smaller.
Carter
48:08
I also am very interested in the stepping on provincial
Carter
48:13
provincial responsibilities. responsibilities. You know, we saw a bit of the response from Kenny, which I'm suspecting you may ask us about in a moment, so I won't go into too much depth there. But, you know, Kenny's response focused primarily on, you
Carter
48:27
you know, the overstep into natural resources or into, you know, what he saw as the revenue opportunities. I didn't see him mention anything about the overstep into provincial responsibilities for social services. Anything that could save us a dollar, he didn't seem to to have any problems with, whether it was fixing low-income subsidies for people with severe disabilities, which we've talked about here on this podcast a number of times through Alberta's age program. You know, the federal government's talking about taking that over. Pharmacare, arguably,
Carter
48:59
arguably, health care is a provincial responsibility. No real issues there. So I was disappointed by the overall throne speech itself
Carter
49:10
itself because I was told I was going to get something exciting. And I got something, as Corey said, that replayed the greatest hits and misses of the liberal regime when we look back on the past 50 years of primarily liberal government.
SPEAKER_02
49:30
Carter, it's very important that I document your response. So I got your delta. Was that a thumbs up or a thumbs down overall?
Carter
49:36
It was a thumbs up. No, down. Down. It was a thumbs down. It was a thumbs down. Jesus
SPEAKER_02
49:39
Jesus Christ, it's the easiest metric. You
Carter
49:42
You know what? It was a 2.0.
SPEAKER_02
49:47
got to answer these ones correctly, and I'm going back to you for another chance at it. Trudeau's evening televised address. So is that a thumbs up or a thumbs down? And regardless of which one of those do you choose, what would you have changed? Oh,
Carter
50:00
Oh, I'm so torn on this one, because I've recommended this tactic. I've been involved in this tactic. We've, we've booked the, you know, the six o'clock news for 10 minutes or eight minutes or however long we've done it to give the big news to the, to the people of Alberta directly. You've
SPEAKER_02
50:16
You've never done it on the heels of a speech from the throne. I
Carter
50:19
don't know. When did we do bitumen bubble?
Carter
50:22
I was trying to piece that back together. You know, that was,
Carter
50:25
that's a good question. That might have been after a speech from the throne, Zane. I'm not sure.
Corey
50:31
Well, so even if Stephen hasn't done it, we, you know, so I have when I worked for the government of Alberta and ran comms for them. It was, I think, the day before the throne speech in my case, if not two days. But
Corey
50:43
But yeah, I mean, it's been tied. So we've
Carter
50:45
we've used the tactic, right? Why do you use the tactic? Well, because you want to speak directly to the people. Why do you want to speak directly to the people? Because you don't trust the press to carry your message. The press are going to carry a different message. So you go straight to them, you know, you take eight minutes of their primetime news and you give them the message directly. Great
Carter
51:02
Great tactic. So I have to, I think I'm thumbs up on the tactic, but I'm kind of thumbs down on this utilization of the tactic. Because if you're going to use it. In terms of what he
Carter
51:12
Give me something. Sure. Pharmacare. You know, the constraints on this particular type of pharmacare, like this is, I interviewed interviewed an author of a book uh about you know a cheap pharma care and how important it could be well the problem is isn't the cheapness of pharma care the problem is when we start covering off the entire like there's no way we're covering off the entire pharmaceutical industry's input in canada it's not happening uh
Carter
51:40
uh just there's no way we could do it we'd bankrupt the country um so we're going going to do some small ass uh you
Carter
51:49
you know coverage of of certain things and not other things uh that will mirror what we do for seniors now it's just not going to be enough canadians when canadians see what they're able to get it's it's small ball and the same i think the same thing applies for everything that was announced cory's point about child care is bang on you know how many times do do canadian mothers and fathers need to be promised uh low-cost child care before they They start giving up because the government just keeps pulling the ball away.
SPEAKER_02
52:19
Corey, same question for you on the televised address, the quote-unquote State of the Union. Thumbs up or thumbs down, and what would you have changed?
Corey
52:28
That was still on the televised address. Stephen, you took us for a bit of a walk there.
Carter
52:32
I did. It was about how little information – and I'm back on it. I'm not going to do it.
Corey
52:37
What do I think of the tactic? Well, you use
SPEAKER_02
52:40
use the tactic – I
Corey
52:41
I think it's less about not trusting the press, And it's more about not trusting the GG or the LG to use the right words in the right way and put
Corey
52:49
put the emphasis on the right syllable.
Corey
52:51
The tactic itself, oh, boy, I don't know. I go back and forth. There's a difference between what Stephen and I were just talking about, which we've done in the province of Alberta, and what Justin Trudeau did. We paid for it in those cases, right? We bought the first 10 minutes of the newscast. Now, there is another version of that that I've had to do, which
Corey
53:10
which is we're going to run a speech at the top of the newscast, and then it's going to immediately turn into a news conference, which is how the journalists say, okay, now that's fine. And that's how we can grab
Corey
53:19
grab some sort of shred of dignity out of this all. But what Justin Trudeau did was sort of different still. It was, I want the airwaves, and we're going to have a response from the opposition. And this is such a big deal, you got to give me the airwaves. And so that's
Corey
53:35
that's a bit different, because that's a pretty extreme thing. And now we're in a pretty extreme moment with COVID. And he was trying to remind us, we're
Corey
53:42
we're in an extreme moment with COVID. So perhaps the tactic was entirely appropriate. But when
Corey
53:47
when you hear the PM is taking the airwaves, I think you expect more substance than we got. So I'm going to give it a thumbs down. And what I would have done is I would have paid for it. I would have made it, I would have actually made it like a government ad, almost. most carter
SPEAKER_02
54:03
carter i'm giving you a 15 second retort go ahead the
Carter
54:05
the thing we didn't hear about enough was the jobs and and the jobs issue right now is significant and getting people to understand how they could actually get new work uh i think should be in the single centerpiece of the throne speech i'll leave it let's
SPEAKER_02
54:21
let's talk about let's talk about the responses cory i'm going to you jagmeet singh on the day of the speech from the throne uh said listen i'm not going to tell you whether i support it or not until we get the uh the sick leave uh from the trudeau government uh he did not take credit outright for any of the things that were inserted uh child care pharma care ie ideas that the ndp had for a long time been advocating for what do you think up or down on his response and what would you have changed um
Corey
54:48
um oh it was it was obviously a bit of stage theater with the liberals right well we're not going to say right away we're going to get something out of you we're going to look like heroes to our base you get your throne speech speech passed everybody's happy the
Corey
55:00
the only thing that i really would have changed if i were him is um is that i would have uh i i probably would have uh taken a bit more of a victory lap on the child care stuff right i i felt like in some ways the the things that he then in turn asked for um were
Corey
55:17
were smaller than the big pieces in the liberal platform the pharma care and the child care even if you know i have already expressed my cynicism there he could have rightly said these are things things the New Democrats have been fighting for, more forcefully, I believe, that at least came through.
SPEAKER_02
55:32
Carter, same question to you on Jagmeet Singh, up or down on his response? And what would you have changed?
Carter
55:38
I think up, I think that he, this
Carter
55:41
this is the first time I've actually seen him, I think, be as political as I want him to be, you know, this was him being political in the moment. And, you know, pretending, I think that Corey's point about being a bit of theater as bang on uh sing doesn't want to sing doesn't want an election um so this was a little bit of of theater for us to to look at and uh but it also was a good sign that that he's prepared to do that theater that he's prepared to to win to take a small win for the ndp and that will
Carter
56:15
pay dividends i think in the future carter
SPEAKER_02
56:18
carter sticking with you on the conservatives Aaron O'Toole was, of course, in quarantine, so he could not make an appearance. So you had Candace Malcolm speak for the Conservatives. They, of course, said they would not support it on the grounds that there was nothing for Alberta and nothing to do with Canadian unity. What do you make of their response up, down, and what would you have changed? Down.
Carter
56:38
Down. I mean, you said it right in your little summation. There's nothing for Alberta, but there's nothing for Canadian unity. I mean, for me, the problem is, is that they're the ones driving the wedge as though that, you know, Alberta is some sort of poor child that doesn't get taken care of enough. I mean, this constantly playing to the to the height of the conservative base is utterly ridiculous to me. Why wouldn't you be focused on Quebec? Why wouldn't you be focused on Atlantic Canada? Why wouldn't you be focused on British Columbia? Why wouldn't you be focused on on Ontario? Were there seats to be won? How many seats are there to be won in Alberta? you know like none stop it stop it um do better focus on the rest of the country
Carter
57:20
and and try and and uh be you know recognize the moment this this constant otul's been better like cory's made some good points about you know otul in the past and and and and how he's better than than sheer was um it's still not good enough i'm expecting more So I'll be looking forward to seeing more from them in the future.
SPEAKER_02
57:41
Corey, up, down, delta on the conservative response.
Corey
57:45
Up, because I just don't, I didn't read their response the way you read it. Obviously, there was the in the moment response from the deputy leader of the conservatives. But when I think about the conservative response, I think about Aaron O'Toole's recorded, hey, I've got COVID, I'm at home response, which was pre-recorded. And I think did a pretty good job of laying out a basic frame that Aaron O'Toole is going to expand on going forward. Now, I do want to say, because I think it's
Corey
58:11
if the complaint was the throne speech didn't include Alberta, well,
Corey
58:15
well, it actually did, I think, include the province Alberta named at least once. Aaron O'Toole's response pre-recorded did not include Alberta. Now, thematically, it may have had some of those things, but if your complaint with the throne speech is there's not enough Alberta, I don't know how you're satisfied by Aaron O'Toole's response, which just tells you it's all politics, it's all ridiculous. But I think what you're going to remember coming out of this is the response
Corey
58:40
response from Merritt O'Toole, not the response from Bergen. And what I would change, I would read my leader's speech, which was obviously recorded in advance, and at least keep that somewhat in my head as I'm responding to the throne speech. Because, well, I didn't see anybody calling out any kind of hypocrisy on that front. That's a little embarrassing to get mad about the thing that your leader did too. uh
SPEAKER_02
59:01
uh carter i'm going to uh to you uh on this one jason kenny uh with his response talking about provincial jurisdiction talking about once again nothing for alberta of course being premier for alberta uh what would you have said uh for him up down and what would you have changed i
Carter
59:17
i think down i think that the the problem that that he ran into uh yeah you know i i always i've already mentioned the hypocrisy of of being really upset about the intrusion on the on the potential revenues issue around natural resources uh but absolutely ignoring the social services uh step on toes provincially um you know the biggest complaint seemed to be uh that uh there was no more money for health care uh for provinces that are actually responsible for delivering health care um well pharma carries a pretty big injection of money for health care uh but it's not the money that he wants he wants money to pay for his base services but
Carter
59:56
but where kenny really got into trouble was where he started to talk about India and, you know, the idea of putting all of these restrictions on Canadians
Carter
1:00:09
Canadians with electric cars and those types of things and saying that India, you know, they're trying to stop... What was that? I wish I could get the quote exactly right. Corey will find it while I'm talking here.
Carter
1:00:21
You know, the people of India are burning, you know, cow dung for energy sources. And he just came across like an out-of-touch racist. And of course, what has happened in the past couple of days is that everybody has pointed out all of the green initiatives that the government of India has brought forward, as well as the government of China. China to pretend that China and India are going to follow the same paths of an energy generation that we have in the Western world of going heavily into carbon intensive energy sources was
Carter
1:00:54
was Kenny's giant mistake. And
Carter
1:00:56
And that will haunt him for a long time because
Carter
1:00:59
because it makes him look like he doesn't understand what's going on in the rest of the world and also makes him look a little a little racist. racist uh so you should you should try and avoid that uh i'm not an expert but uh i think appearing racist isn't the best the best way to win win elections uh
SPEAKER_02
1:01:14
uh i would not i would not actually say that i feel like we've seen enough proof that uh that that's a viable strategy not
Corey
1:01:20
not saying it is for jason
Corey
1:01:22
uh did it take
SPEAKER_02
1:01:23
take you the brown guy to say that jesus christ cory same question to you finish us off here uh by the way i said uh the name of candace bergen right now called the candace Malcolm, that is not who she is. That is some other person. But Corey, on Jason Kenny, up, down, what would you have changed?
Corey
1:01:39
Down? That was a bit of a strange detour. And I think he could have been much more on point on that one. He came in crazy
Corey
1:01:48
crazy hot and left an awful lot on the floor. I don't know why he decided he needed to take an attack on intersectionality, right?
Carter
1:01:57
Oh, yeah, that was ridiculous.
Corey
1:01:58
Okay, I mean, but like it's just, it's a weird thing to get detoured on. And also, I got to say, like the India comment, that's going to hurt for a while.
SPEAKER_02
1:02:10
Okay, let's move it on to our final segment, our over, under, our lightning errand. Guys, are we ready? Yep.
SPEAKER_02
1:02:16
Carter, I'm starting with you. Jason Kenney in his wide-ranging press conference, of course, talked to what Corey alluded about intersectionality. Why? Who knows? Who cares? He called it a kooky academic theory on a scale of one to 10. Carter, how damaging is this to Jason Kenney politically?
Carter
1:02:32
Women decide elections. And if you know when women voted for Rachel Notley, they had decided that they no longer wanted a progressive conservative government. When women voted for Jason Kenney, they decided that they needed to put their
Carter
1:02:46
their economic future first. If they decide that Jason Kenney is against them, they will choose a different party to vote for in the next election. This is significantly damaging for him. I would say that it is a needs improvement on
SPEAKER_02
1:03:01
Corey, same question to you. How politically damaging? And by the way, after Jason Kenney said this, his issues manager, Matt Wolf, tweeted out a video of Ben Shapiro, a very nicely done Ben Shapiro video, talking about intersectionality being how many victim groups you associate with. Fun fact, I guess you wanted to know that. But Corey, what
SPEAKER_02
1:03:20
what do you think? What's the political damage on a 1 to 10? Well,
Corey
1:03:24
people don't know what the hell intersectionality is. So I don't know that there's going to be a lot of swing voters sitting there caping for the concept, right? Twitter hit peak Twitter, I think, in the immediate aftermath of the Premier's comments when there were people saying intersectionality is not a theory, it's a framework, you know, and that may be true. But I think that tells you how deep we are in the rabbit hole right now. Now, I think where there is damage, it is that people are going to be – the damage is probably more perceived than real where people will say, God, that was a little embarrassing. I don't know why we needed to detour on this. And it calls into question in
Corey
1:04:03
in small ways political judgment. And if you are starting to – if there are polls coming out that show you declining, the last thing you want as a premier is to have your political judgment called into question. Because any
Corey
1:04:14
any premier, you know, and I've seen a couple of them pretty up close, at the end of the day, a lot of the time has to say, I'm going to do it this way, guys, you're just gonna have to trust my judgment on this. And if people don't trust your judgment on this, that's
Corey
1:04:28
that's a lot harder to swing that hammer.
SPEAKER_02
1:04:31
Corey, I'm sticking with you on a scale of one to 10. Trump has nominated Amy Coney Barrett as his Supreme Court Justice nominee. How much of a political boon is this for Donald Trump?
Corey
1:04:43
Um, I don't I don't think it changes anybody's math at all. It is it is the expected pick. And it is going to it
Corey
1:04:53
is going to rile up the people it was going to rile up on both sides. But it was always going to.
SPEAKER_02
1:04:58
Carter, many people are saying that she could hopefully be the face of the campaign going forward for the next, you know, four weeks, five weeks, whatever we have left here, knowing how deeply unpopular Trump is as it relates to his coattails from some congressional and Senate candidates. How much of a political boon is she from a scale of one to ten?
Carter
1:05:17
Oh, I think that she's not much of one. I think that the exposés that are being written about her and how she's managing herself. She may be the hero to a to a small group of voters, but those voters were already with Trump.
Carter
1:05:32
I always find it. So overall, I'd say that it's not it's not right. It's not going to be a big boon to the Trump campaign. But I guess it is better than talking about whatever lunacy Trump's talking about. So I will give it a pass on the pass fail scale. gail
SPEAKER_02
1:05:48
cory uh i'm moving over to you on our next one on a over under of seven on an over under of seven let's do a health check no that's not a pun on aaron o'toole and how he's doing thus far as conservative leader of course in quarantine having to give his response as you just talked about earlier but over under on seven how's aaron o'toole doing uh first i'd say month or so now on the job i'm
Corey
1:06:11
i'm going to say over but i'm i'm going to give a qualified over there they they are clearly moving all of the pieces around that they're going to need for endgame here so we saw an advertisement from aaron o'toole and
Corey
1:06:22
and the conservatives this week that uh that gave a bit of his backstory the death of his mother really powerful really thoughtful uh we saw his response to the throne where again he he just sounds like a reasonable person certainly if you're you know he's talking about western alienation and the importance of resources and i kind of roll my eyes a little at that even though i don't discount the fact that there's such a thing as western but the um you know he he he sounds pretty sensible and he has he has picked certain fights with uh on certain issues he has maybe gone a little too far into language like america first for anyone's taste on this podcast but um let's
Corey
1:07:03
let's be real he's um he's getting the thing set that he needs to be set and
Corey
1:07:07
and um i sure wouldn't bet against him next campaign there's nothing nothing I've seen in his first couple of weeks that makes me think that
Corey
1:07:13
that he is not going to be a force to be reckoned with in the next federal election.
SPEAKER_02
1:07:17
Carter, over under on seven on how Aaron O'Toole is doing thus far.
Carter
1:07:20
I'd have to go over. I mean, I was a little nitpicky on him
Carter
1:07:23
earlier, but he's defining himself very differently than Andrew Scheer. He's got a far better communication structure already than than Scheer ever showed. And he's going to be a force to be reckoned with in the next election. I suspect that his strength over the past three or four weeks is one of the reasons that we're not heading towards a snap election, uh, in this country. Uh, so I, I think you have to go over it. He's definitely, uh, now I think some of his answers are weak. I think that some of his answers should be much stronger if he's ever going to bring over swing voters. Uh, but, uh, overall, maybe it's a reflection of my expectations, but he's, he's doing a much better job, uh, than I expected.
SPEAKER_02
1:08:05
Carter, I'm sticking with you for the last question. Knowing all the expectation level setting that's happening right now, knowing all the context, who wins the first presidential debate on Tuesday?
SPEAKER_02
1:08:21
good. Carter's finally taken a prediction. Now
SPEAKER_02
1:08:24
Now just expect Chris Wallace to run over. He's not going to mention tax returns whatsoever. However, we're going to have a whole Twitterati surge about it. Corey, same question to you. Knowing everything that's going on, expectation level setting, et cetera, who wins the first U.S. presidential debate on Tuesday night?
SPEAKER_02
1:08:45
Anybody who decided not to tune in.
Carter
1:08:47
We are such pussies. This was terrible.
Carter
1:08:52
I'm really pleased we didn't take any positions.
SPEAKER_02
1:08:56
This is the freedom that the over-under of the lightning round and my lack of moderation overall gives you. and that's a wrap of episode 823 of the strategist my name is zane belgium with me as always stephen carter cory hogan and we'll see you next time