Episode 817: Death by policy

Zain 0:03

This is a strategist episode 817. My name is Zain Velji with me as always, Corey Hogan, Stephen Carter. Guys, what's

Zain 0:09

what's going on? How

Corey 0:11

Raptors? Yes. What was your basketball prediction yesterday? I want to make sure to bet against it heavily.

Carter 0:19

know, I don't I don't remember. I never made a prediction. I've never actually predicted anything. anything your

Corey 0:24

your prediction about the finance minister yesterday i just i can't remember i'm hoping maybe you can i

Carter 0:32

uh i don't believe i actually i think i said i didn't know um because it's better to look like you have no clue than appear to be an ass you know in in retrospect well we'll just run the clip

Zain 0:45

carter same question to you by the time we record next Next Sunday is Bill Morneau, I should say, still our finance minister.

Zain 0:53

And that's what brings us here, Carter. God damn it. We just recorded yesterday, and now this emergency podcast needs to happen because we should have bet against you. We should have prepared for this. Corey, why didn't we prepare for this was my biggest question. We knew he was going to be wrong, yet we did nothing to

Zain 1:12

to prepare our schedules.

Carter 1:13

Corey was also wrong. And we were betting whether or not he would be there for a week. I'm only six days off. I'm only six days off, and you guys are all over me.

Carter 1:25

So, you know, I'm glad we got the gang together again.

Corey 1:32

know, there's other ways that you could propose to hang out with us. And while we would reject them all, I think we would appreciate the creativity. Yeah, we'd

Zain 1:40

we'd appreciate the effort, the courting effort that would be required. word. Let's move it on to our first and only segment. My greatest weakness is that I care too much. Guys, let's talk about Bill Morneau. And let's talk about the fact that he is no longer, well, he technically is the finance minister until Justin Trudeau finds a new one. But today, he has resigned as being the finance minister, resigning as the MP for Toronto Centre. Before we get into the words of what he said, Corey, I want to talk about what we kind of saw in the lead up to him resigning officially, which was a hastily organized press conference where the opposition members usually give their press conferences. They were running around trying to, you know, find enough flags to create some sense of a semblance of a backdrop. What does that kind of tell you? Give me your sense from, you know, this hastily organized press conference on the day he was meeting with the prime minister. Give me a sense of if you're reading any of those tea leaves for for any insight well

Corey 2:38

well i i just don't know enough about the booking of their various media rooms over in uh on parliament hill but i i don't so the media was pretty seized with this as we were all trying to figure out why morneau was calling a press conference at 7 p.m and then it came out that he was holding his press conference in a room that is not generally used by government ministers although i i certainly get the impression they they could use it. It's not necessarily verboten to them or anything like that. And so, of course, that started a flurry of speculation. And that speculation was, I think, directionally correct, which was that he was going to resign. But given the nature of his resignation statement and how he went back to how he and the prime minister were buddy-buddy and all of that, I don't think the prime minister's office said, no, you can't use the good media room. I think that's probably probably a bit of a stretch but i it does speak to the

Corey 3:33

the weirdness of all of this and yeah that um that

Corey 3:36

that this is quite irregular to to have a hastily called news conference and to resign i mean look i mean i'm not really leaving for any particular reason and this is all part of an orderly plan that i've been musing for months uh in the middle of a pandemic

Corey 3:52

in the middle of a pandemic and just leaving with no notice that's that's pretty hard to swallow i don't think that's what's going on on here. But, you

Corey 4:01

know, I think that because we don't know what's going on, all of these things can be interpreted, reinterpreted, and double interpreted. And we saw that in the lead up.

Zain 4:11

Carter, we'll get into the double, triple reinterpretation and reckless speculation, which is what got us into this mess of recording two nights in a row. But before we do that, Before we do that, tell us about what you kind of make of the prime minister and the finance minister meeting on the day of and then having a press conference some 10 hours later in the day to kind of say, listen, it's over, we're done. What do you think was going on between that time of that initial meeting? I mean, I want you to speculate a bit in terms of maybe with some of your experience as to what could have been going on behind the scenes after that initial meeting. Because Morneau says he was not asked to resign, but there we are at a press conference some seven to ten hours later.

Carter 4:56

Well, let's start by eliminating a couple of things.

Carter 4:59

I don't think this is we-related, right? Like I think we said yesterday that we feels to me like it's kind of in the back mirror. It doesn't feel like it's a pressing issue that is putting pressure on either the prime minister or the

Carter 5:13

the finance minister to take any particular action. So

Carter 5:16

So I don't believe that they sat down today to say, OK, well, you're going to fall on your sword and we're going to get this whole wee mess behind us. I think there was something foundational between the two of them. And

Carter 5:26

And it's most charitable. I think that the way to read this would be saying, you

Carter 5:31

you know, the finance minister and the prime minister got together in a room to

Carter 5:35

to determine whether or not their differences were material. material and

Carter 5:38

if they are material then the finance minister has no choice but to leave because he can't have a different agenda than the prime minister so if that was the case then this this OECD job comes available or is you know is is a reasonable looking plank for him to walk down But let's be clear, it's just the most flimsy of excuses for him to actually leave the government. So I don't believe it's related to the past scandals. I think it actually has something to do with the fundamental disagreement between the way the two of them view the Canadian economy and how they're going to move through it. And also, you know, Bill Morneau, I would imagine, is a fairly proud individual. I mean, how does he feel, you

Carter 6:31

you know, when when he's trying to speak to the prime minister and offer his advice and that Mark Carney standing there in in his his newly acquired bride's dress, you know, looking, you know, whispering in the prime minister's ear and is now the flavor du jour. I mean, it's it's it's a it's a bit of a slap, I'm sure, to a man that is not used to not being the primary advisor in the room.

Zain 6:55

Yeah, and I want to talk about this, but Corey, before we jump into that, do you feel like this was we-related? Do you feel like the stories being seeded over the course of the last week about the conflicts between the prime minister were effectively covered to allow for we, the actual heart of the issue, some are reporting, to have a different access point? Or do you feel like Carter, that this was personality and perhaps vision-driven?

Corey 7:21

maybe he's a better actor than i give him credit for but i think it is probably more personality and policy driven just based on where

Corey 7:29

where he seemed to lose control of himself during that news conference that we saw earlier today right uh the we stuff he seemed to brush aside without too too much difficulty oh yeah no i made a mistake there but uh you know um it wasn't a big deal now maybe maybe it's all just a rich tapestry right maybe there's components here or maybe the prime minister's office got – I mean, it's easy to see. The prime minister could have gotten frustrated about we. That could have been compounded on frustrations he had about the finance minister's approach during this moment. And, you know, the prime minister does seem to want to remake the Canadian economy in response to COVID, right? This idea that you're going to build everything back for the 21st century, not for the 20th century, you know, the Biden build back better concept.

Corey 8:20

you know, I don't think that you can entirely set aside we I obviously think that's a that's

Corey 8:25

that's a comorbidity here. But I think he died of advice to the Prime Minister.

Zain 8:31

Carter, let's talk about the speech itself. Because that was what was most fascinating, at least in my mind, there was ultimately two prongs. The first one was him saying that, listen, he's proud of the work that he has done as finance Minister, that they need someone for the job that can be future-oriented. I was only going to run two terms. And then the second prong, which is, by the way, speaking of future-oriented, I now want to run the OECD and I'm applying for that gig. So, you know, saying he can't lead the future of Canada, but certainly can lead the future of the OECD. I see no irony there whatsoever. But Carter, what do you make of that? Like, in terms of the message that you heard from a a political strategy level, some calm strategist said, go say this, right? Even if it's true, even if it isn't, go say this. What do you think the intent was? First, let's talk about the intent and let's then talk about what we should have done as an alternative. But go ahead, Carter.

Carter 9:23

Well, I mean, this seems like a variation on the old

Carter 9:26

old line that if they say it's about your family, it's never about the family, right? I mean, you don't run a year ago, win the election and then say, oh, but I was only going to run two terms. I mean, that is something you do in the last 12 months. You give the prime minister the opportunity, even 18 months, right? Like if you're being particularly nice, you give the prime minister 18 months to fill your shoes, give the new person a little bit of time to get, you know, their feet underneath them, figure out the job. But you don't go a

Carter 9:57

a year after getting elected. I mean, this is a new world record, I think, of people saying I was only going to do two terms like it's it just struck me that they said well the family line's not going to work let's try the two-termer or the I was only going to give two two two

Carter 10:15

two terms of my life and then to follow it up with you know so essentially it's I only wanted to give two years of my life to public service but that other public service job over there looks pretty great and I'm not sure that these two jobs are comparable I think that finance minister in Canada is, in fact, a better job. So I'm not sure this is a, you

Carter 10:36

you know, that the story is going to hold up to much scrutiny. You know, it just doesn't, it literally just doesn't make sense. It doesn't make

Carter 10:44

that he would say, I was only going to give two terms.

Carter 10:49

And I want this other public service job over here. I mean, you were, even you, Zane, were picking up on the the irony uh we haven't even gotten to cory yet oh thank

Carter 10:58

thank you so much thank

Zain 10:58

thank you so much i appreciate that can

Zain 11:01

can i can i one day step in your chair probably not hey you know

Carter 11:04

know what make a fucking prediction zane make a prediction and stand by it boy that's what's getting me my

Zain 11:11

my lack of refusing to put myself out there uh you know cory i want to talk to you about the same thing in terms of what do you think the comms intent was here right because they there was probably a discussion around saying, should we leave the OECD stuff out and then just surprise, surprise, you know, surprise people if you're successful at the job? By the way, he's applying. So he's a very overconfident man talking about his application to the job and saying that the prime minister will be a reference, almost signaling that, you know, the prime minister likes people like Mark Carney, who've got international finance and econ creds. So maybe I can go get this degree and come back and become a finance minister again. But Corey, what do you kind of make of of the communications intent, because I think that's really important for us to talk about, because I think that was a discussion that they must have had.

Corey 12:00

I think it's, I'm going to give a bit of a more charitable lens on this. I don't think it is a crazy notion that you don't want to be finance minister, but you are interested in being the Secretary General of the OECD. I think that might be a better job by most metrics. It probably pays days more. It almost certainly has less limelight on you. So you're able to do things like go on $41,000 trips for free, right? And maybe you shouldn't be able to, but just people aren't paying attention like that. And that

Corey 12:31

that to me was not the incredulous part of the idea that you are going to go and apply for the OECD. It's this notion that this is why is just so absurd, Because this is not how you would actually approach it if that was your – I mean, talk about burning your boats. It's like I'm an MP, I'm the finance minister, and I'm giving up all of that to campaign for the OECD, and I'm doing it right now during a global emergency. That sounds like the kind of employee you want to hire if you're the OECD. I mean, it doesn't really – it's strange credulity is putting it modestly. Like, if we were going to take at face value that he only wanted to do two terms, him resigning right now would be a sign of a snap election. And by the way, then he still wouldn't resign on the spot. He just wouldn't run again, right? None of this sort of holds together. But how

Corey 13:20

how you get in a spot like that, if you're in a room with strategists and you're trying to determine what you're going to say and how you're going to say it, and I'm sure it's not the first moment people thought about it, right, is

Corey 13:31

there are things you don't want to say. And from there, you are kind of determining your universe of things that you can say. And unfortunately,

Corey 13:39

unfortunately, instead of sort of picking one or two, they kind of threw the kitchen sink after it was, no, we're going to say everything's fine with Trudeau. We're great with Trudeau. It's not about policy differences. You know, that kind of tension is always normal. It's not about we, everything's fine there. it's really about uh well what can you say in that context you can you can say that you don't want to run anymore you can say that you're looking for different opportunities let's go with those right and um i

Corey 14:05

think they would have been better off picking one but i can understand they they kind of belt and suspended it and they thought let's just just do a bunch of reasons why we don't want to be here come tomorrow unfortunately none of those reasons explain why you resigned on on the spot unless

Zain 14:18

unless you think the immediacy element of it doesn't doesn't come

Corey 14:21

come up unless i guess again if i'm trying to be charitable if you think it's inappropriate to run for the oecd job well in the job but still the timing is crazy yeah

Zain 14:31

yeah and i mean i think there's a differentiation between actually wanting that job and broadcasting that you want that job as part of the statement and and that to my point carter is is what do you make of of cory's analysis here of what could have happened and perhaps i'll take it to the next step what would you have advised right you've got the the suite of issues in front of you, to Corey's point, you've eliminated a lot of them off the table, things you cannot say that you probably want to. How would you message in this situation? Is it a singular thread? Is it this multidimensional angle that Morneau took? What would you have done?

Carter 15:03

can I just be absolutely insane here for a second? Wouldn't it have been interesting if he just left saying... You've

Zain 15:08

You've never asked permission, by the way. Yeah, I mean, but wouldn't

Carter 15:11

wouldn't it be interesting? And this goes back to some of my, you know, you know, wilder dreams that we can be more truthful in politics, you know, like, you know, telling, you know, people that they have to pay taxes, you know, those those types of crazy ideas about running for office wouldn't have been interesting if he just stood up and said, you know what?

Carter 15:30

The prime minister and I have been friends for years. We agree on the general direction of the country, but we have some minor disagreements now.

Carter 15:40

He needs someone who's going to stand behind him 100 percent. i can't do that but i wish you know i want him to be the very best like i want him to succeed and and the best way for him to succeed is to surround himself with the best possible team of people who believe 100 where he's going i'm out of here like i i i why couldn't we do that why couldn't like or if it's the we thing why wouldn't he throw himself on the sword you know if it is we it's there just just say you know what i made a mistake i've decided to pay for that mistake by uh leaving this job that I that I treasure. Why wouldn't he do that? Right? Like, those are two other options that could be a more truthful, and be more believable.

Carter 16:25

That I don't think necessarily hurt the Prime Minister. I mean, if the Prime Minister is in charge, if the Prime Minister is the Prime Minister, who is setting the course and setting the agenda for this country, why can't he he say, you know what, Bill

Carter 16:40

Bill Morneau, who is a great man, who I have a tremendous amount of respect for, and

Carter 16:44

and I have a disagreement about how we want to move forward.

Carter 16:47

We have decided to part ways amicably because

Carter 16:50

because it is in the best interest of our country that we surround, we

Carter 16:54

we put at the Canadian cabinet table, people who agree with the vision that I'm articulating for the 21st century for Canada. You know, Bill's stuck in a resource-based environment, whatever, you know, throw a little bit of meat on the bone but i would have loved to have seen either a direct throw on this is because of we and i'm i'm resigning because of it or b i i i disagree with the prime minister's vision uh you know but he's entitled to his vision he's entitled to take the country where he told canadians he was going to take it let's

Zain 17:27

what is what is your reaction to that i

Corey 17:29

i don't even think you need to i think even that is is kind of more than he needed to do His problem was not even so much his

Corey 17:36

his messaging, it was the actions that accompanied it. So, look, I signed up to be finance minister in very different times. The next finance minister has to be here for a while.

Corey 17:45

He, you know, he hinted at the first, he outright said the second. That's not a crazy thing to say as to why you don't want to be finance minister anymore. It doesn't explain, again, why your resignation is effective now. And, you know, it's occurring with zero notice at 7 p.m. on a, you

Corey 18:01

you know, on a Monday night. I mean, we don't have a finance minister tonight. Toronto Centre doesn't have an MP tonight. That doesn't seem necessary if everything's fine, right? It seems deeply unnecessary if everything's fine. And I don't know if it was Morneau who wanted it that way or the prime minister who wanted it that way. But I think regardless of who, they made an error because any of the tripe they were trying to sell becomes easier to sell if

Corey 18:27

if he announces after

Corey 18:29

after markets close. So maybe that's part of why it's there, although it doesn't really explain the hours between five and seven, right?

Corey 18:38

He, you know, he just says, I'm, you know, the prime minister, I've informed the prime minister of my intention to resign. I will be here for two weeks to allow him to, you know, get like, it wouldn't even have taken a lot of time, I guess is my point. Any amount of time beyond imminent, even if he said the prime minister is going to make a replacement tomorrow, would have seemed a lot more orderly. this did not seem orderly and that to me is the big canary in the coal mine here it is why none of this really holds together the messaging and the actions don't

Corey 19:08

don't jive it's why all of those reporters as you know this press conference was being hastily scheduled started speculating pretty wildly as to the exact nature of the disagreement because these are the actions of a blow-up you know either by the prime minister or more no they are not calculated calculated removal from public life, which is what they tried to sell it as.

Zain 19:29

Corey, would you have, would you have, in this case, found a rationale for the immediacy? Would you have, like, made that number one? Like, and what options did he have right now, right? Like, suppose he was either instructed or was so, you know, strong-headed that he said, I want to leave tonight. Today's the last day I want to serve in this cabinet and this administration. What would your your rationale for immediacy look like what

Zain 19:54

what would be that glue that kind of stitches it together perhaps yeah

Corey 19:56

yeah i i mean the oecd thing's not even crazy as glue you know you could sell this lateral arabesque but um you

Corey 20:05

could say listen i don't feel right uh lobbying for that job well i'm in this job that seems deeply inappropriate we're a g7 country you know this is a very powerful finance position um and but again

Corey 20:16

again you a couple of days a little bit of notice there i i'm I'm not even sure we would have still bought it. We would have been kind of like, yeah, okay, sure, Bill, this is pretty convenient. But if the prime minister played his part and gave full-throated endorsement and said, Bill Morneau has helped us through difficult financial times and he can help the OECD.

Corey 20:38

If Morneau had played his part and said, I'm resigning because I think it's not appropriate to run for this job well in this job,

Corey 20:48

could have been smoother. But again, it would have had to require people to say, not

Corey 20:52

not today, maybe next week, which would have made Corey Hogan's prediction 100% accurate.

Zain 21:01

Carter, I'm going to you on this. And let's talk about the prime minister for a second. In terms of his calm strategy today, mainly from the vantage point of what he didn't do. He didn't appear with Bill Morneau as a joint press conference. So this was Morneau on his own. He put out a statement simply, what do you kind of make of the prime minister's calm strategy first? And perhaps if you want to expand on that, what do you feel like, if there were any recommendations, would you have provided to him with his calm strategy for this resignation today?

Carter 21:35

Well, I mean, I think that the first thing is, if this was really a mutual decision that wasn't someone being pushed out, then yeah, I mean, show up together. Corey tweeted that that billboard from the election of the two of them standing there with their little hands and their little heart configuration

Carter 21:50

configuration is gross at the beginning. It's even more gross now with the benefit of hindsight. It's creepy

Zain 21:57

creepy now. It's like it's like a boy band. I

Carter 22:00

I don't like it. I don't like it. So anyways, it's it's not something that, you know, like stand beside the man. I mean, he's supposed to have been one of your greatest ministers stand beside him. not standing there was bad i mean this looked to me by like

Carter 22:17

like that whatever happened this morning morneau took some time wrote his release scheduled a press conference in the press and the in the prime minister's office went wait what and they had to respond and the way that they responded is

Carter 22:31

is is they took the high road absolutely would have recommended they take the high road they're not going to shit on the guy um you know maybe there was some running back and forth between between Morneau's chief of staff and Katie Telford to kind of make that work because it was just all happening so quickly. But this does not feel like it was a well-thought-through strategy to get them out. I mean, first of all, if you're going to get out of this, if this is actually a well-thought-through strategy, you'd have done it last Friday.

Carter 23:02

You know, you bury the damn thing. You put it on a Friday afternoon. It happens. Everybody's away for the summer. everybody's out hiking and being outside not youtube but everybody else um and and they they get to see you know like they don't have to see this particular sausage being made um the fact that you know we're going to have a meeting on monday bill and we'll see whether or not we can make this work and then it immediately falls outside of the prime minister's uh

Carter 23:29

control it looks that way it looked like to me like it was 100 outside the prime minister's control control he and his team did not have control over how this happened and when this happened because if they did you don't choose now you just don't choose a Monday now every day this week there's going to be another leak about what happened it's going to leak Tuesday it's going to leak Wednesday it's going to leak Thursday and we'll have the fullness of the story by by next weekend but it's not going to be this story this story is not being done is not the one that's written on Friday that's another prediction I'm prepared to make write this one one down hogan okay this one you bring back in a week because i think that uh do

Zain 24:08

do you want to be more specific

Zain 24:09

specific with that prediction that was very vague this will probably be the story written on friday there's

Carter 24:14

there's gonna be a lot i suspect that there's going to be a lot written about the meeting that occurred this morning right

Carter 24:19

right right about the blow up that occurred between these two gentlemen that are best of friends that share a common vision for the country but couldn't come together to actually bring us out of one of the most devastating economic circumstances circumstances we've ever experienced.

Zain 24:35

Corey, the PM's calm strategy, what do you make of it from what you saw slash didn't see from the PM himself and the PMO today?

Corey 24:43

So I agree with Stephen. They obviously didn't think things were going to play out in this fashion. And, you know, one of the knocks against Bill Morneau has always been he doesn't understand politics. And this might be a great example of that. He decides he's going to walk in with a resignation letter on a Monday morning and and

Corey 24:58

god only knows what happened between that meeting and then all of a sudden this this news conference that happened at seven o'clock who knows how they were planning to do all of this uh maybe there was uh maybe there was a plan to resign more more gradually and then he just decided based on another follow-up conversation you know what screw this i'm not going to be this puppet for the next whatever whatnot like all of it seems deeply irregular uh to steven's point i do think we're going to get the full story i don't think we're going to have to wait very long because Because if I'm the prime minister's office, I'm thinking about go-forward strategy now.

Corey 25:29

I am – I'm thinking, boy, it's the DNC right now in the United States. Everybody is watching that in the United States and Canada. Maybe we are talking to some friendly reporters. Maybe we're trying to arrange for a story that at least gives the prime minister's versions of things by Wednesday,

Corey 25:47

Wednesday, assuming there will be another angle at some point on Thursday, and people will still be reading the Wednesday one. And then it just gets big footed by the convention acceptance speech.

Corey 25:57

You know, I think in this case, that might be better than Friday, simply because we are so distracted by something major right now. But

Carter 26:05

But you can't control it till Friday now.

Carter 26:08

you know, it's being written right now. Someone and so you're better off.

Corey 26:11

Absolutely. So you're better off trying to get in there earlier. Actually, they may be working the phones right now. Frankly, they may not even be wanting to wait.

Zain 26:18

What you know, one of the things that's that's emerged out of this, at least from a narrative And you tell me if it's liberal spin or not, is that Morneau was standing in the way of some of the more bold, progressive ideas that Trudeau's wanted to implement post-COVID. Is now a time for that? And I guess I'm hearing you guys say there's a channel changer necessary, perhaps. You know, you maybe lean into the story a bit from the process element, but is one of those bold policy initiatives perhaps a channel changer? Carter, I'll go to you first, and then Corey, I know you're itching to get into. to well

Carter 26:48

well i mean the other the only way of looking at this the whole the whole thing only holds together if there is right there has to be a reason why he left otherwise you know what is what's the point of it why did he actually leave so yeah i mean if you're in the prime minister's office right now you better find that channel changer you better find that

Zain 27:05

that are you doing it immediately are you doing i don't

Carter 27:08

don't know if i'm doing it immediately it's you know what is it the 17th of august today um you know despite

Carter 27:14

despite our growing listenership i mean i don't think that people are paying attention um so i'd

Carter 27:19

i'd wait i'd hold off till september and and and do a proper uh rollout of a big policy initiative rather than trying to rush something forward uh just to prove that bill moreno didn't put one over on you um who cares he's gone move on focus on on your agenda and try and get back to a message calendar uh which you haven't had since um well

Carter 27:41

well you've never had frankly but uh you

Carter 27:46

it's good to have a dream

Zain 27:48

Corey, let's talk about the big policy solutions that Trudeau has rumored to want to implement. Is now the time as part of the channel change from this story to release one of those or drop one of those?

Corey 27:59

absolutely not, because it is the dead of summer, and what madman does such a major thing in the dead of summer?

Corey 28:08

You said maybe Morneau was standing in the way of some of these initiatives. Maybe, but all of the reporting we have to date is that he capitulated on every single one of those. And

Zain 28:17

And has in the past, too, right?

Corey 28:20

and we have not gotten leaks about that, so he's been a pretty good soldier about it. The suggestion that Morneau has been at great odds with the prime minister on these things, that began about, oh, I don't know, a week ago, just as all of this started to heat up. So it's pretty tough to say that Morneau was this giant roadblock to doing all of those things. Maybe he threatened to do it going forward. But I think certainly everything, well, I shouldn't say everything, but a common theme I've heard from people who know these things is that Morneau was seen as a bit of a cabinet

Corey 28:49

cabinet wet blanket. He was kind of that last vestige of the business wing of the liberals, the Paul Martin wing, the John Turner wing.

Corey 28:58

the liberals, the class of 2015, for the most part, are

Corey 29:03

are a pretty orange group, right? They may

Corey 29:06

may have some of the entitlement challenges of liberals of past, but they see themselves as far more socially progressive than liberals of past. And Morneau was the

Corey 29:14

the guy who said no or held back or argued the counterpoint. And I'm sure he was a bit of a downer in that context to his colleagues. So I guess

Corey 29:22

guess I say, like, it's

Corey 29:26

it's interesting to me for a couple of reasons. One is I find it hard to believe that

Corey 29:31

that Morneau was actually going to be this big impediment because obviously he hadn't been to point. And it seems like the cabinet and the caucus were more with the prime minister than the finance minister. I definitely don't get the sense there was this serious threat to the prime minister's rule or this serious counter argument that the prime minister couldn't manage. But it also probably means there won't be a ton of disunity as a result of this, right? If the cabinet and the caucus were generally not real

Corey 29:55

real keen with Bill Morneau's approach to governing.

Zain 29:58

Carter, tie this back to we for me in the sense that we know the ethics investigation is going to come out. Morneau is probably going to be named. Trudeau is more than likely going to be given that slap on the wrist. So there is another new cycle of we to come. Is the Morneau resignation today, does Trudeau have the ability to tie that as the head that rolled for we and say this is what was done, like we can move on? Or does he still have a opening that the conservatives and the NDP can still keep prodding at with the we scandal going forward? I guess simply I'm trying to ask, with today's events, has Trudeau put we behind him?

Carter 30:37

No, I mean, I think that if anything, it's made it more difficult for him. You know, the call isn't going to be just, well, we got one head, now we're going to let it go. Momentum, now they've got Morneau's head, now they start crying for Katie Telford, and they start crying for the prime minister himself. If Bill had to go, why don't you, sir? And that is the argument that will be made. And then when the report from the ethics commissioner does come out, And it does name, as you've suggested, as you've implied, Morneau and Trudeau. I think that they're in real trouble. You know, Trudeau is the last man standing. He's the only one left who can face this particular music. So it's going to be hard for him to just kind of wipe it away unless he's not named, unless he's able to get out of it in some fashion. So

Carter 31:28

this, I mean, Morneau has actually probably screwed

Carter 31:31

screwed the prime minister more than we think. think now uh because he knows more than we do he may have factored this into the decision to just say i know what you're going to do you're going to pin this on me anyways so i'm the fuck out of here and uh let me know how it works out for you there so maybe that's what's happening i i mean we we don't know enough about the the we scandal to uh and the ethics investigation to uh to speculate entirely but if that is the case oh bill you wily old dog that's that's

Zain 32:00

that's some more politically savvy

Zain 32:01

More politically savvy than anyone has ever gotten credit

Zain 32:04

Yeah, that's some fuck

Carter 32:04

fuck your buddy right up there. That's some great stuff. I like it.

Zain 32:08

Corey? Oh, okay. You would be a fan, Carter. Corey, what do you think of this? What does this mean for Trudeau and we? To Carter's point, does it perhaps make it worse? Does it perhaps dampen the story going forward because the head is rolled? What do you think?

Corey 32:23

I mean, it's useful in the scenario where the ethics commissioner only names Morneau where it says Mourneau was the only one who truly violated ethics rules. Because then he can say, he's not here, that's it. What more do you want me to say about this? He's off at the OECD, apparently. Yeah,

Carter 32:38

Yeah, he's fine. He's got a new gig.

Corey 32:40

No, that's the narrow band by which he gets a pass on this. But if the ethics commissioner comes back and otherwise says this is a serious problem, and it's an equally serious problem for Mr. Trudeau and Mourneau, and Mourneau's not there anymore, he doesn't get to throw him under the bus already. already he's already been taken in the morgue to the cemetery and buried it's over right uh and so people are going to be looking for somebody else to throw and

Corey 33:03

and that is unfortunate if you're in the PMO um but we don't know I mean this that is that's quite speculative we don't know what's going to happen between now and then we don't know what the ethics commissioner report is going to say and um and it is possible that just based on the letter of the law Morneau's violation was more serious than the prime minister's although I think as we've discussed on this pod the

Corey 33:25

the prime Prime Ministers was more serious, in my opinion.

Zain 33:27

Carter, you know, let's move away from reckless speculation for a second. Tell me when Trudeau, if you're advising him right now, should announce his new finance minister.

Carter 33:36

That's a good question. I mean, I think it all depends on whether or not it is going to be Carney.

Zain 33:44

speculation. I think all reporting thus far has denied the fact that Carney will be. I think a lot of senior officials today have reported

Zain 33:49

reported to media that it's not Carney. But okay, keep going with your train of thought. So

Carter 33:53

So if it's not Kearney, then it's a lot easier. I mean, you take your time. You do it probably 10 days, maybe eight days. If you really want to get out of the cycle here, if it's starting to hurt you, maybe you can do it as early as Wednesday. You don't want to appear like you're rushing to it too quickly. You need to take, I think, a couple of nights to sleep on it, talk to a few people, see who would be best for it. there's an opportunity to appoint uh canada's i mean i i guess technically um the associate minister of finance is now the minister of finance so technically we have our first um female minister of finance i i'm guessing um these technicalities i mean if she hasn't been sworn in i'm not sure exactly how that works but um you

Carter 34:37

you know there's an opportunity for some groundbreaking moves that will help get you out of this with a new media cycle So putting in someone who, you know, the first woman who's a minister of finance gets you a news cycle and getting you a positive news cycle might be enough for the minister or for the prime minister right now. But I'm thinking earliest Wednesday, latest next Wednesday, would be probably the range that I put on it.

Zain 35:03

Corey, what do you think? When should Trudeau be naming his next finance minister?

Corey 35:07

That really depends on how much work they've already done and whether they were preparing for a cabinet shuffle, because let's not forget what the catalyst events here were. The suggestion that Morneau may be shuffled out by the Prime Minister into a different portfolio is pretty high on everybody's speculation list. So if that was potentially what was underway, and if that is what triggered Morneau to hand in his resignation, you know, because, you know, there's two ways you can read substantive policy differences. One is the Prime Minister said, I don't want you in this position anymore. And the other is Morneau says, I will not do this for you anymore. But if it was the I don't want you in this position anymore, and a cabinet shuffle was underway, do

Corey 35:43

do tomorrow, right? Right. You know, announce a cabinet with every position filled except for the minister of Canadian heritage and everybody will connect the dots. Right. And we'll look to fill the minister of Canadian heritage at a future date because then it becomes really clear what the actual story was without the prime minister coming out and saying what the actual story was. And that could be part of a media strategy as well as to what actually happened. But again, I mean, this is in some ways this is the more reckless speculation because it is so dependent on how prepared everybody was and what things were. If they are not ready, if they were fully intending for Morneau to be the finance minister, and the cabinet to be the same today, tomorrow, next week,

Corey 36:22

Stephen's right, they shouldn't rush it. It would be a big mistake to kind of panic and give somebody that job and deal with all of the cascading challenges that come from that.

Corey 36:32

would be a big mistake. You would be living with that for a long, long time. And you're better to take a beat and figure

Zain 36:37

figure out what the hell you're going to do.

Zain 36:39

Corey, clarify for me for a second. What did you mean by the Minister of Heritage thing that you're just mentioning? I missed the thread of what you were trying to allude to.

Corey 36:44

to. Oh, Stephen got it. I saw it. If you have a cabinet with one hole in it, the assumption will be that hole was the hole that Bill Morneau was going to fill. So if there's a position that's more junior on the list, and I, you know, with all apologies to, you know, I don't even know who the Minister of Canadian Heritage is right now. Stephen.

Corey 37:08

That is not considered one of those big, shiny portfolios. And if it's vacant there, then it becomes like,

Corey 37:14

oh, I get it. Morneau was going to be that minister, and now that minister is not available.

Zain 37:18

Right, right. Interesting. Okay, Carter, finish us off on Trudeau before I move it on quickly to the conservatives drawing blood today, or so they will say.

Carter 37:28

Well, I just think that he – this

Carter 37:32

isn't a great spot. I mean, he's lost now. Now, like if you think, go back to the SNC-Lavalin piece when he lost Gerald Butts, and now he's lost Morneau. He's gone through two big scandals that he's, or he's not quite through, we yet, but I'm saying it's mostly in the rearview mirror. But Corey makes a good point that, you know, with the ethics commissioner report, it could come roaring back to right in front of the headlights. headlights um the the the challenge that he

Carter 38:01

he has is he's he hasn't gotten any benefit out of these losses you know when jerry left i mean he didn't take any of the snc lavenly problem with him at all he just left you know like it was so poorly staged the exit that that none of the potential benefit of having a senior staffer fall on his sword uh was accrued by the prime minister's office yeah now he's lost the minister of finance uh arguably one of the top two or three people in the government and again he has he has accrued no benefit uh for the giant scandal that's still uh standing in front standing in front of him so you

Carter 38:37

you know this comes back to me uh

Carter 38:40

uh i don't think this government has been particular this particular prime minister's office has been good at crisis management. I may have said that a few times. They could maybe call up Matt Wolf and see if he's available because a good issues manager to manage these types of crises, well, a good issues manager. And I said, Matt, that's wrong.

Corey 39:03

is with you, my man? It

Corey 39:05

It doesn't matter. Go on.

Carter 39:06

Anyways, someone who could manage these things and think them through a little bit more strategically, I think would be a big help. I think the government is very much focused on policies and helping Canadians. And that's great. They should do that. But politics is politics. Never forget the primary game.

Zain 39:26

It's now time to bring on our first guest. And our first guest is Matt Wolfe. I'm joking. I just brought Matt Wolfe on this podcast. I'm sure he'd be a very pleasant individual. Better than his Twitter persona, I'm sure. Just a nag on even more. Corey, same thing for you. Same question headed your way. What do you kind of think in the sense of going forward?

Corey 39:48

I don't, you know, they're at a weird moment. They should take the week to regroup. They should not let this get them off their big game. Obviously, if the prime minister's got large plans, he should implement them. And again, this is the speculation. We don't know what triggered it. But look, we've got a $343 billion deficit. It is really tough for me to imagine that Morneau's line in the sand, the principle that he would not give away was putting a couple billion dollars towards green programs. Like, if there is a substantive policy difference here, it's got to be huge. It's got to be kind of remaking the Canadian economy kind of huge. And I can't

Corey 40:25

can't imagine what that is if it's not a basic income, right? Yeah.

Corey 40:29

So there's my recluse speculation here. Really?

Zain 40:33

yeah. Corey, back to you on this, because I want to get your thoughts first. Conservatives, you said last episode that they show success by drawing blood. Well, today, did they draw blood? And can they connect this to their questioning on ethics and finance committee, their level of interrogation, etc, etc, etc? Tell me right now how the Conservatives should be positioning what happened today.

Corey 40:56

Their news release was exactly what you would expect. They said, hey, he went down. Now, actually, it was a little funny because it started with what a great man Bill Morneau is. But now they're all, you know, they're all corrupt and the prime minister should resign was basically the tone by the end of it. But, yeah, of course, they're going to claim victory, quote unquote victory. And I think that it's reasonable that they do. People have been saying for weeks that Bill Morneau looked

Corey 41:20

looked like if somebody was going to go down for this, he was one of the most likely candidates and he's gone. on and yeah there are there are a couple of other events in there that intervene but they're pretty convenient right and and certainly i think it's hard to look at them in a vacuum and say

Corey 41:36

that this wasn't as i said earlier this episode part of the prime minister's frustrations with bill morneau right yeah because when you think about a finance minister and you think about that um

Corey 41:46

that necessary vigorous debate is how we put it in his news conference today right that's how bill morneau

Corey 41:51

it was um when you think about that necessary vigorous debate if you're the prime minister and

Corey 41:58

you see value in that you're willing to entertain that um

Corey 42:03

may lose enthusiasm if they show themselves to be a political nafe right and they make mistakes like the the uh we scandal uh you know and forty one thousand dollar checks and whatnot and so the the cost benefit analysis starts to break and um if you're feeling frustrated and you are also seeing in them as a political liability because of their judgment that's obviously going to make it easier for you to make a big change if you're the prime minister so i i think it's all tied together it's part and parcel and i think that the conservatives um did

Corey 42:33

did draw blood here it was it was a longer term thing it took a couple of months but there's no question in my mind like i said that this was a this was a comorbidity this is part of the reason why bill morneau is not here today was it the the reason?

Corey 42:46

Maybe not. But it certainly made his

Corey 42:50

his death by policy more likely.

Zain 42:52

They should celebrate this death by policy. Pretty good. They should celebrate it as such. Carter, what are you doing next? So I think we agree with Corey's assessment that the Conservatives put out the right release today, have the right messaging, kind of holding this trophy, celebrating their victory. What do they do going forward, right? You know there's going to be this week long of a drip campaign, so to speak, of what the process story actually was. How are you, if you were in the position to advise them, telling them to take maximum advantage from a political strategy perspective this week and going forward on this story?

Carter 43:20

Well, I think that it's going to be interesting following the drips. I mean, I think that, you know, being able to stand up and say that, you know, the prime minister can't tolerate any dissension, the prime minister, you know, is a weak leader who can't keep his team close to him. Those are all going to be lines of attack this week. But the big attack is still going to come you know if if there is a we price to be paid because um i think that morneau has successfully avoided being the guy who who has to deal with the we the we fallout so the we scandal um so that's

Carter 43:53

that's probably the big the big prize uh i i suspect that the conservatives won't lose their you know they'll keep their eye on it and uh it's looking like it's going to time out pretty well well for their new leader to to jump on that particular scandal next

Carter 44:07

next week so this week i would focus if i was conservatives uh just on you know trudeau's

Carter 44:12

trudeau's weakness as a leader unable to keep people around can't tolerate dissent and then you know once the new leader is in place then you start going after we again in a more uh focused manner it would be my recommendation you

Zain 44:27

you know new leaders can be selected on sunday are you making this a cornerstone of your speech if you're mckay or O'Toole?

Carter 44:32

No, I don't think you want to have that.

Carter 44:35

I don't think you want to have it be that timely. I think you want to I think you want to talk about the vision for Canada and put forward a actual, you know, put forward your manifesto, probably the wrong word for the Conservatives, but put forward your your case

Carter 44:49

case for governing what it is that you're going to be as the government government uh should uh you get the opportunity in an election whether it's this fall um or you know the spring or the fall or the spring or the fall whenever we get an election we this is what we're going to stand for this is what i the the conservative party under my leadership is going to look like that's what i would prefer to see them say i

Zain 45:13

i wasn't planning on doing this but might as well let's move it on to our final segment our over under and our lightning round

Zain 45:19

Corey, Steven, are you ready? Oh, so

Zain 45:23

Carter, I'm going to you first. Over, under, on seven, what did you make of Bill Morneau's speech today?

Zain 45:29

liked it. Or his resignation speech, I should say. I

Carter 45:32

I liked it in the moment. In the moment, you know, he comes across, I like Bill Morneau. He comes across as someone that isn't fake, that is legitimate in the moment. And I thought that he was legitimate in the moment of giving that speech. he he said words that i think he believed um so in the moment i was i was digging i was like this is good i really like this and then you can spend four seconds thinking about it and it just falls apart at the seams so if it is possible i will give it both a fail and a pass on your grading scale so that

Zain 46:06

that is exactly what i was asking it is

Carter 46:08

is it is both a fail and a pass this

Zain 46:10

this is this is the the new Stephen Carter just hedging on everything. Corey, what do you think over on Road 7? Well,

Corey 46:15

Well, I'm going to pick up that ball and run a little bit further with it. I give him a fail on strategy and a pass on tactics. He's a very good speaker. He comes off as warm and genuine. He does all of the things that we train people to do in communications about bridging back to the thing you want to talk about. I lost track of how many times he said, but what's important to keep in mind here or what really matters? I mean, it was textbook. And I mean that positively, not negatively. He was applying all of those tools of the trade. And I think that the media didn't quite know what to do the

Corey 46:47

the first few rounds of questioning. It took them a few before they actually managed to get any kind of dent in him. So like he he's good. He might not be politically savvy, but he's communications adroit. And and you got to give him credit for that. However, as Stephen said, when

Corey 47:04

when you stopped and actually thought about what he was saying, it doesn't it doesn't make any sense. it like none of this story holds together the like i said the actions do not align with the words and that that foundationally is gonna sink you it is gonna sink you there is no reporter who after leaving that didn't think 30 minutes later even if they were writing the story and saying wait

Corey 47:23

wait a minute this is all nonsense you know he's he's leaving for the oecd effective immediately like that's crazy so so

Corey 47:31

so yeah pass fail uh fail on strategy pass on tactics cory

Zain 47:35

cory back to you on this when does trudeau appoint his new finance minister

Corey 47:39

we're predicting again, are we?

Zain 47:41

Oh, there's a lot of prediction coming.

Corey 47:42

Look, like I said, it really depends on what the catalyst was here. If he was planning a cabinet shuffle already, he will do it imminently. There will be either

Corey 47:51

either three or four moves or a full cabinet shuffle within a week and a half. But if this was a bit of a shock, I think it's going to be next week at the earliest.

Zain 48:03

Corey tries to memorialize his answers with context. That doesn't work on the show. show carter what do you think this

Zain 48:08

this wednesday to next

Carter 48:09

next wednesday i already said it sticking to it it's gonna happen

Zain 48:13

happen carter back back to you who will it be who

Carter 48:15

who will it be oh good who will

Zain 48:16

will be the new finance minister um

Corey 48:21

you're thinking cory who will it be

Corey 48:23

gosh uh well i'm gonna be thinking too i don't know that's a tough one there's not necessarily anybody who i think is both obvious and you could spare them from what they are currently doing and i think that's the the challenge you

Carter 48:36

you know what would be fun just to say just to watch albertans heads pop right off their fucking shoulders uh katherine mckenna just

Carter 48:43

just to see the albertans heads pop off their shoulders it's just that'd be so much fun well

Corey 48:49

well i i think that that would be interesting but uh you're

Corey 48:53

say not the reason you're

Carter 48:54

you're to point a a finance minister i

Corey 48:57

don't know i'm just gonna throw a dart at the wall and say pablo rodriguez i don't have a clue no

Zain 49:02

okay that's good that's good. That went exactly how I wanted it to. Final question, much easier. Let's you just be who you are. And Corey, I'm going to you first. Does Bill Morneau become the new OECD Secretary General?

Corey 49:14

No, that was a position held by a Canadian pretty recently. They're not going to give it back to a Canadian right away. It's another reason why none of this story makes sense.

Carter 49:24

Absolutely not. Take it to the bank.

Zain 49:28

That's what I'm looking for.

Zain 49:32

that's where the podcast gold is made from and we'll leave it there that's a wrap on episode 817 of the strategist my name is zane velgey with me as always cory hogan stephen carter and we'll see you next time

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