Transcript
Zain
0:03
This is the strategist episode 583. My name is Zain Velji with me as always Stephen Carter, Corey Hogan. Guys, it's here. It is here. We're in the middle of it. Oh my god. Oh
Zain
0:13
my god. And Stephen Carter just bought new glasses to watch the GOP convention. Oh, I wanted
Carter
0:17
wanted to see it up close.
Corey
0:21
Yeah, you don't understand television. vision no
Carter
0:26
wanted to get all the detail of my high res tv no i have nothing you've got nothing nothing
Zain
0:31
you got nothing but you got new glasses so that's good cory
Zain
0:34
cory any other trivial topics we want to discuss anything nba related any metaphors to
Corey
0:38
to tie us into what we want to talk about oh i wish but everything's quiet the nba is the anti-gop right now well
Zain
0:44
well that sucks because there was so much activity last week there's nothing this week but time
Zain
0:49
time for our first segment Our first segment, immigrants stealing from hardworking Americans. Guys, it's the GOP convention. Did you get it? It
Zain
0:56
took you a while. The speech. The speech. Yeah, the speech. The speech. We'll get to the speech.
Zain
1:02
Stephen likes it. It was really good.
Zain
1:04
It took him a while.
Carter
1:04
while. But here's the thing. No one got it. Well,
Zain
1:08
I may or may not have stolen it from a tweet. I'm just giving full credit out there. Okay. That's
Corey
1:13
it. Full credit is vaguely waving your hand towards something that may have happened. Tweet.
Zain
1:17
Tweet. Tweet person. that, guys,
Zain
1:19
guys, the GOP convention, we are in the middle of it. Monday to Thursday, this whole epic saga goes. And day one, Corey Hogan.
Zain
1:28
You seem less concerned than me. No,
Corey
1:31
No, I mean, this is the story that you always hear before and at the start of a major event, which is that the major event is a disaster.
Carter
1:38
This is the Rio Olympics. I
Corey
1:41
This may well turn out to be a disaster. But I'm not going to call it a disaster quite yet. I'm going to say there are quite a few eyebrow-raising things that have occurred, but there's a reason these conventions are four days long, and it's that you build to something. And on the fourth day, when Donald Trump accepts the nomination for the Republican Party, and those words still send a chill down my spine, that by then is when we're going to be determining whether or not this has been a successful convention. We're not going to be basing it on a
Corey
2:09
a speech that happened on day one during the day that said only white people have done anything or a speech. In
Carter
2:16
In fairness, that was an interview. Oh, I'm sorry. It wasn't a speech. Yeah. That was an interview. The speech is they couldn't find anybody who had already said that, so they avoided it.
Zain
2:25
Yeah, they couldn't quote a fellow white person.
Corey
2:31
pretty amazing though right that you know the day starts with a guy saying what white people do everything they've done it all and then a white person stealing a black person's speech to kind of cap it up steven
Zain
2:43
steven carter peel the onion back a little bit we've
Zain
2:45
we've talked about conventions in the past we
Zain
2:48
we know that this convention is going to get an unbelievable amount of viewership if you are the gop cory
Zain
2:53
cory talks about culminating on the thursday with donald Trump accepting, what are you strategically trying to do over the course of these four days? Well,
Carter
3:00
Well, I think your question begs two answers, because I think there's more than one particular GOP at this moment. There is the GOP of the Trump campaign, right?
Carter
3:10
And the Trump campaign, I honestly think that the Trump campaign is thinking, things went pretty well yesterday, right?
Carter
3:16
right? Things went pretty good. Is it because they just operate in chaos? This is the norm for them. There is not a day that goes by where there is not
Zain
3:23
not something. Do you honestly believe they thought yesterday went well or
Carter
3:27
I mean, sure, they've got their spokespeople out doing a little bit of control, spin control on plagiarism. Frankly, of all of the boneheaded moves yesterday, coming out only talking about plagiarism of two lines in a – or two paragraphs in a speech, they
Carter
3:43
they did pretty good. I'd take that if I was Trump. I would take that if I was Trump.
Carter
3:48
So there's that group
Carter
3:50
group of – Answer
Carter
3:53
Part two is the rest of the GOP is losing their fucking minds right now. They are organizing. There are lunches. There are dinners. There are gatherings. Everybody's having coffee. Everybody's going to various events. Great article in Politico about it right now. Yeah.
Carter
4:09
About kind of the second convention that is happening at this convention. Right.
Carter
4:14
Right. And they are preparing for, as I mentioned, because Corey never gives me credit, so I will take credit. Sure. As I mentioned on this podcast months ago, if Donald Trump is winning this nomination, what they're worried about is the down-ticket races. So they're trying to put together a strategy for the down-ticket races. And secondly, the
Carter
4:36
strategy that comes in late November of 2016 when they lose. And that's how they're thinking, when
Carter
4:42
when we lose. Right. Because I don't think it's dawned on any of them that in the last, I
Carter
4:48
I don't know, Seven to eight days, Nate Silver's projection of whether or not Trump can win this election has gone from 21% to
Carter
4:59
that's fleeting. That could change tomorrow, one
Carter
5:05
concerned that they will not recover if
Carter
5:08
don't have a strategy after Trump. Corey,
Zain
5:10
Corey, the conventional wisdom is you use the four days, you culminate on the Thursday, you get that post-convention bump. Trump, what's special about the strategy for this one, if you are that second group, if you are the establishment this time around? Carter's talked about a few points. Anything to add from your end?
Corey
5:24
end? I'm sure that they're all just holding their breath and hoping that it doesn't get fucked up. I mean, that's basically the best case scenario for them at this point. But I don't know. I'm not really convinced that this convention story as of yet is unrolling any differently than any recent political convention. Let's not forget Mitt Romney had Clint Eastwood talking to a chair. We all talked about that. That
Carter
5:46
was horrible. How low can you go?
Carter
5:50
And now it's like, oh, no. You should brag to
Zain
5:52
to people for everything. I think it's as low as you could go so far.
Carter
5:55
Remember Clint talking to a chair? That
Zain
5:58
was really up the street. Corey, are they in the when we lose territory that Stephen mentions in your mind? Do you think that's settled in for them?
Corey
6:06
You don't agree? I don't. I think that there are a number of Republicans who think that losing is more likely. But I also believe that many of those people are Republicans in the first place because they have some passion that the ideas will carry the day, that their small government ideals or whatnot. Or even if you don't want to look at it so positively, this notion that Hillary Clinton is so terrible that the Republicans couldn't possibly imagine the American public putting her into office.
Carter
6:34
Well, we've often talked about how I don't get the values of the people who are supporting Trump. Yes,
Carter
6:38
Yes, yes, we've done that quite a bit. I sat this morning at breakfast, and the table next to me was, I don't know how to describe them, morons comes to mind, who were talking about how Trump may not be good, but he's a hell of a lot better than that crook Hillary Clinton.
Carter
6:57
woman who was with them was like, we're not talking about this anymore. We're moving on. Yeah,
Carter
7:03
Because she was pissed, but there
Carter
7:07
there are still a lot of people. This thing is not by any stretch over, and I think the Republicans – I
Carter
7:13
I think some Republicans are actually concerned
Carter
7:15
concerned that he does win.
Carter
7:18
Right? Well, he should be.
Zain
7:21
wins – We've talked about – yeah.
Carter
7:23
Well, I mean, if he wins, it's the end of civilization. Corey,
Zain
7:25
Corey, talk to me about their strategy on day one in your mind using security as their main issue. Security and Hillary Clinton as their main issue. Is one of those two going to be a constant through the next four days? Make America
Corey
7:37
America safe again. end. Exactly.
Corey
7:38
are the placards out on the floor. Right. They're going to play on that theme, I'm quite sure, all the way through, culminating in making America great again. No, I think it's when you put a convention together, it's a bit like writing an essay and you are going to have your strongest arguments in your bookends. People will tune in. So security is something, obviously, the GOP polls pretty well with in general. They have this law and order constituency
Corey
8:01
constituency pretty much locked up. And I think they wanted to remind the base of that. Let's get back to the remind the base of that in a second and uh then they're going to put their weaker or more controversial arguments in the middle before ending with a bit of a rah-rah thing with donald trump on thursday now i
Corey
8:17
said they they led with security because that's kind of a traditional gop matter strength it's also a gop strength that overlaps with a donald trump strength right uh in the sense that he is not seeing as wildly offside of the gop on the issues of security i mean i think that when When you start bleeding it into immigration, he is absolutely offside. But
Corey
8:39
But when you talk about law and order in general, he's
Corey
8:42
he's not so far offside.
Corey
8:43
You put that with his very conventional VP pick that he did last week. Yeah, we'll chat that. And let's not forget, until yesterday around midday or later, it was still an open question whether or not never Trump would be able to get an open vote on the floor about
Corey
8:58
about the rules of the convention, right? Which could have been then a proxy that could have led to essentially delegates becoming unbound. However unlikely that was, the fact of the matter was, on day one, there was still business to take care of. There is now no business to take care of. The vote is just perfunctory. It is pro forma. It is just going to end with Donald Trump being elected. There are very few opportunities for him to get additional black eyes on a process standpoint. So when you think about day one for Donald Trump, day one was, I'm safe. I'm Republican. And those messages certainly reflected that. Carter,
Zain
9:31
Carter, what do you think of leading with security? Do you agree with Corey that it was a strong... Am I putting words in your mouth when I say it's a strong start for them in that regard, topic-wise? Well, I
Corey
9:39
I think as far as topics go, it's a strong topic. Carter,
Zain
9:42
Carter, what do you think? People
Carter
9:45
People are very afraid. There's attacks
Carter
9:48
attacks throughout the world that we're seeing on our television every night. Let
Zain
9:51
Let me interrupt and ask you this. Is the goal of leading with security to make more people afraid, or is it to appeal to the base? Because Corey mentioned that as well. What do you think the goal would be?
Carter
10:01
I think the base is afraid.
Carter
10:03
Right. Right. I mean, the base is afraid because they don't understand Black Lives Matter. They don't understand how
Carter
10:08
how come everybody isn't siding with the police and how we haven't cracked
Carter
10:12
cracked down on all these hooligans. And the
Carter
10:14
the base being afraid is why they're the base. I think that being fearful is now more powerful than being religious, for example, in that subset of GOP voter. So going to security at a time when really crime isn't that big of a deal, terrorism isn't that big of a deal, don't let that stand in the way of a good argument. Don't let that stand in the way of convincing people that they should be afraid and that only you can solve a problem that doesn't exist.
Zain
10:47
Corey, you talked about the narrative arc, so I want to get into this. I was going to plan to get into it later. Suppose I give you the keys, right? Someone gives you the keys today and says, okay, day one we led with security. Right. Day two, three, four, right? How do we culminate this into the eventual Donald Trump speech? Where is your mind at in terms of what you're looking to do over the course of the next three days, including today where we record right now while they're in convention? Yeah,
Corey
11:09
Yeah, and I mean those things are set, so this is a bit of Monday morning quarterbacking. It absolutely is, but I just want to hear
Zain
11:14
hear what your thinking would be on that.
Corey
11:16
Well, I think that the thing I would want to do is make sure that any area that had to be dealt with but probably left me open to attack was put comfortably on a Tuesday, Wednesday. day and that's why economy is there frankly the economy in the united states is not so bad right now and
Corey
11:30
and uh donald trump is open to many assaults on that question i think that you have to keep in mind before i even go any further donald
Corey
11:39
donald trump himself did not get to just do the convention he wanted to do and there are smart people who have some expertise at this pulling it together and from that standpoint i
Corey
11:48
i don't think they're doing so badly uh the details hurt of course the the white elevator yesterday did anybody see that oh yeah oh sure yeah that was that was inexcusable i just wait while you
Corey
11:59
you guys got on by the way i don't know what i do i take the stairs i would horse with the advanced team that allowed that to happen but um it's
Corey
12:08
it's just it's unrolling as it should i think is the message that i would say not as i think many people would want some people want it to be a disaster some people want it to be a home run but it is unfolding as you would expect a convention of this size to do because they have so much momentum behind them now if i am trying to build kind of the case for donald trump over the next four days if that's really the crux of your question here i think that what i'm doing is and we saw a lot of it last night keeping it on donald trump as little as possible we're trying to make it about hillary clinton and we're trying to make it about issues where americans have a baseline level of discomfort and there's a lot lot of uncomfort in america right now this country has been going through a bit of uh yeah
Corey
12:49
yeah some growing pains i guess these are the teenage years for america britain looks back and says i remember when i had to deal with that you know and now they're just this stoic previous
Corey
12:58
previous empire america however you got to keep in mind in the late 40s early 50s was was like over a quarter of the world's gdp i mean we they are still the most powerful nation in the world by a wide margin But they are not the only superpower on the block anymore. And that's scaring the crap out of a lot of people.
Zain
13:15
Carter, same question for you. So this is what Corey's saying. Corey, I'm going to summarize, right? You bookend with your strongest points. It's about, you know, putting the focus on Hillary Clinton. You've got your issues that you're open to assault on, the Tuesday, Wednesday issues. What do you make of that strategy?
Carter
13:29
It's absolutely right. I mean, you've got a four-day convention where people get excited at the beginning. They wane at the middle, and then they come back at the end. yeah um trump's speech is going to be the headline coming out of uh thursday yeah
Corey
13:44
yeah no matter what uh you need
Carter
13:46
need that speech to carry you through the weekend because uh you know as much as as much fun as this uh plagiarism charges today no one's going to be talking about it on wednesday you
Carter
13:56
think so no because it'll be over because we'll have either either they'll have changed the channel successfully which is what they should have tried to do basically right off the bat and then or or they'll change it on thursday and but
Corey
14:09
but it's just going to run its course so to your wednesday point like there we're either going to be not talking about this because they've changed the channel or we're not going to be talking about this because we'll have rolled into that meta-analysis of the trump campaign clearly can't handle
Zain
14:22
is this what you expect to see you we've seen day one we're on day two do you expect the strategy that both of you agree on is the right one to actually manifest itself in the convention well
Carter
14:34
well zane i think that it actually almost has to just by the nature of the of the way that it unfolds and
Zain
14:41
and you think trump and the gop establishment are aligned on this well
Carter
14:43
well not really i mean
Carter
14:45
got cruz speaking he's not going to endorse that's going to be a weird thing to pull off uh you've got some weird stuff happening but god
Carter
14:55
god you know i'm trying to think of a convention where we didn't just fixate on the on the eventual nominee's speech.
Carter
15:02
watched a really interesting documentary yesterday on FiveThirtyEight about the Ronald Reagan convention.
Carter
15:07
So 1976 when Gerald Ford beats Ronald Reagan in the delegates piece and Ford brings Reagan down to speak kind of during his speech. And
Carter
15:21
in hindsight, becomes the point where people are talking about it. But in the meantime, it's still Gerald Ford who won.
Carter
15:27
Gerald Ford carried the day. And
Carter
15:29
And four years later, you can look back and say, look, the Reagan return
Carter
15:32
return to the conservative Republicans
Carter
15:36
Republicans begins in 1976. But
Carter
15:40
it's easy to see the stories in hindsight. Maybe something will happen in the next two days that you'll see in hindsight. But when we're talking about things on Friday, Saturday, Sunday, it's going to be Trump's speech. Corey, anything to add to that?
Corey
15:52
Well, the Democrats won't give him Friday, Saturday, Sunday without a fight. Expect Hillary Clinton to do something splashy on Friday. Maybe that VP pick will be leaked out, rolled out. But I think that we just, you know, if there's one thing that is predictable about the Trump campaign, it's the lack of predictability. I don't really want to say with any confidence I know what's going to happen today, tomorrow, and
Corey
16:15
and Thursday for that matter. I also know that there's a lot of external forces that are applying pressure. We don't know if protests are going to get out of hand, if the counter protests are going to get out of hand. We don't know if something's going to happen like that, that starts to make it look a lot more like 1968 than it does, and the protests that turned violent in Chicago there, or if it's going to be something that's a little more to form. I believe, however, that most Americans watching this will probably, if you're going to bet on what the most likely middle of the path is, and I wouldn't bet a lot, I really want to stress that, but probably
Corey
16:48
probably it's just going to go off as it is. There will be a few gaffes, whatever. There will be a speech. The speech will be well-constructed. I believe it will probably be identical to Obama's 2008 acceptance speech, and
Carter
17:01
It was a good one.
Corey
17:04
it's going to give Americans a sense of a much more competent Donald Trump than he deserves. This is the establishment's convention. The establishment has been planning this thing for a very long time, working with Cleveland, working with the committee in Cleveland to get this thing down. and if it goes off it's going to go off not because of donald trump i'm not saying in spite of him but it's going to go off not because of donald trump okay
Zain
17:27
okay so let's move away from prognosticating as to what will happen to actually analyzing what did happen carter i want to talk about the never trump movement on the floor okay so first
Zain
17:37
first of all let's discuss how they got steam rolled and then we'll get into what they should have done instead of what ended up with them so So, Carter, tell me broadly, you know, we don't really need the specifics because there's several of them, but how do these guys get steamrolled after making such a ruckus on the floor on Monday? Well,
Carter
17:55
Well, bottom line, nothing can happen if you don't have the votes, right? So math
Carter
18:00
always wins. I believe originally they had something like a majority of 11 states that had delegates sign up and say that they wanted to have these free votes, and then it starts to fall, and suddenly it's nine, and then suddenly it's six or seven states,
Carter
18:14
states, And there's an open question as to whether or not they have enough states to
Carter
18:17
force the roll call vote.
Carter
18:20
people who are loud on the floor don't carry the day.
Carter
18:23
One of the things that we saw in
Carter
18:25
in the media coverage, and I'm going to sound like one of those crazy Republicans. There was like the media is out
Zain
18:31
out to get us. There was
Carter
18:32
was a story on the floor. The story on the floor was about was a bunch of people yelling and screaming. But what we didn't hear is when they came to the vote, what those yeas were versus the nays. because all the cameras, all of the recording equipment were right near the people who were angry. Who were going to say nay,
Carter
18:50
yes. Because that's where the story was. That's the story.
Carter
18:52
That's where the story was. And for me, it was a great reminder that I don't care how many people there are in
Carter
19:00
in a counter-protest or how many people there are.
Carter
19:03
There could be 42 people in a counter-protest.
Carter
19:07
If the media deemed that to be a story, that's the story that they're going to cover. Right. So the media deemed this to be a story. I think it was a story. I think that the Never Trump movement is a legitimate thing that has high profiled Republicans behind it.
Carter
19:24
fact that they got steamrolled was entirely predictable.
Carter
19:28
Even if you don't like Trump, you're
Carter
19:30
you're a Republican. And God damned, if you're going to let somebody take over, take the party and make a laughingstock of you on the very first day of the convention. This is
Corey
19:38
is the law and order party, and nobody should be surprised that order prevailed. I mean, that's the bottom line. And, you know, I think the problem is, to the second part of your question, what would you have done differently, perhaps? I mean, I don't know.
Corey
19:53
You're armed with a knife and you're walking into a gunfight. By the way, I made up that quote. Is that you? Is that you coined that? Yeah, it was me. Don't let anybody tell you otherwise.
Carter
20:03
there was just no way they were ever going to win
Corey
20:06
win at the rules committee. Yeah,
Zain
20:07
Yeah, that's what happened. Yeah,
Corey
20:08
Yeah, so the rules committee voted first whether or not they would allow a minority report, which required a quarter of the rules committee to
Corey
20:15
to vote for, which would then force a vote on the floor of whether or not they would allow people to vote their conscience. What we were talking about, which happened on Monday, was their fallback plan of if we just get enough of the delegations to say that we want a vote, a roll call vote on the actual rules instead of like a voice vote, then we can just – we can force potentially a vote on the rules in total, which if we reject, then we have to create new rules. And it was kind of a backdoor.
Corey
20:44
And we can have our hand on that
Corey
20:46
It was never practical. It was always their faint hope clause. And one of the main reasons it failed, in my opinion, is that the Never Trump movement has had an unbroken history, not just a failure, but exaggerating their chances for success. So when I was looking at the coverage going into those rules committee meetings, the Never Trump movement was claiming they had the votes of 24 or 25. I think it's 106 people are on that committee for some reason. That number is sticking in my head. It doesn't matter. The point is they
Corey
21:11
they were on the razor's edge, they believe. They could potentially do it. I think they got 10 or 11. They weren't even close. and there became a certain amount of the boy who cries wolf which is a story i wrote which you guys should read someday it's a very good lesson for the kids and in this story what happens is this boy cries wolf multiple times and there's not a wolf and finally when there is the boy gets in a lot of trouble and never trump ran into that um never trump had claimed they had a chance to win so many times and i think republicans stopped taking them seriously and the problem is so much of the argument has
Corey
21:40
has to be in a situation like that in a law and order party like that if
Corey
21:44
if you put your neck out you're not going to get your head chopped off and they had said they had these delegations but it started to bleed and then there were people who waffled and all of a sudden you're sitting there and you're in the colorado delegation and you have uh previs calling you the chair of the gop saying why is your signature on this you've got to take it off and it's pretty clear to you
Corey
22:05
that if you're on the winning side of even calling this question you're barely on it you're gonna you're gonna chicken out 10 times out of 10 that's the dna that brought you to that party to begin with carter
Zain
22:16
carter anything to add in terms of what they should have done differently whether that's on the floor or whether that's in preparation of of monday they
Carter
22:23
they being the people who are actually organizing never
Zain
22:25
never trump organizing they
Carter
22:27
they should have dropped it you
Zain
22:29
you think so yeah
Carter
22:30
don't fight a fight you're going to lose you fight a fight that you can win and
Zain
22:34
and was there another fight to be had that they could have won like a smaller fight where they could have claimed victory well
Corey
22:39
well you know even optically zane i think
Corey
22:41
the problem never trump has now is it's so clear how small of a delegation they were and if they had just said we lost at rules there was pressure applied on the rules it's a small well-connected group they played their hand and it's out exposed we had our hand and it's out but then like to go to the next failure i think just hurt their cause more than anything they could have said down the road like we fought the good fight at rules we lost yeah
Corey
23:02
yeah that would have been your recommendation that is i would like this was this was never going to happen i mean it was not inconceivable that they would have gotten a vote that was a roll vote But the roll vote would have ultimately just ended in those rules being adopted and just embarrassed the party in the process. So, of course, the party eliminated it. OK,
Zain
23:18
OK, humor me for a second. I'm going to expand the scope from Never Trump to to
Zain
23:22
to people who are protesting in general. So many people, many causes, many issues outside of the convention. Is there is there strategy in terms of them trying to get exposure for their issue at a convention like this? Millions of people are going to be tuning in. What should the protesters outside? We've heard of several different camps, several different issues. what should they be mindful of as they as they try to get exposure for their issue
Corey
23:46
think people are definitely looking for the controversy and if you come with the controversy that's great all the better if you happen to be a republican who's mad about trump and are protesting and so if you can do a few things that are off brand off type that always helps right uh it's it's like this old joke that i made up which is if uh if you're out with your drinking buddies and your drinking buddy says there's no god he's drunk but if you're out with the pope and the pope says there's no god maybe you should be listening to what he's got to say the fact is when you go against your interests like that then people take you more seriously and the protesters have to realize that that's true in their world as well right
Zain
24:21
right that they need to have a little bit of stake in it where if there's a republican on side it
Zain
24:27
it helps them that's right right carter anything to add to that what's the strategy for protest movements that's broadly what i'm asking well
Carter
24:33
well i mean i agree with you going against type i mean i think that some
Carter
24:36
some of the the things that have gone viral of
Carter
24:38
of late of course are the violent acts and you're seeing a bunch of things that but
Carter
24:41
but then you see uh black lives matter run into another protest that's
Zain
24:45
that's right it's the campaign cory started yes
Carter
24:48
that one i believe and
Carter
24:51
uh you know they embraced they had a discussion things worked out and suddenly that's going viral so you've got um
Carter
24:58
um So I would probably encourage
Carter
25:01
encourage protesters not to overly, not to protest too hard. You
Zain
25:07
You don't think this is a powder keg for virality? It's a powder keg.
Carter
25:11
It certainly is a powder keg. But I think, I mean, my fear is that something really bad is going to happen. And it's 1968 Chicago. Right.
Carter
25:22
you know, you don't need that. Matt, if you're a protester, Trump's going to walk away with his nomination. This isn't a big deal.
Corey
25:30
You've strengthened his hand with that kind of violence. You're
Carter
25:33
You're hurting yourself when you really should be trying to strengthen your own cause as much as possible. If you're a Democratic protester especially. I mean, if you're a guns rights protester and you're standing outside wearing your AK-15 or whatever the hell those things are. 47,
Corey
25:48
47, but it's good.
Carter
25:50
There's another one that's a 15.
Carter
25:54
I mean, there's something. Humor
Zain
25:54
Humor me on this again. Humor me on a few things here. Rudy Giuliani, when did he become a crazy person?
Zain
26:02
I'm referencing that speech yesterday, which was, I don't know if you'd call that red meat. I don't know if you'd call that him being. I would call
Corey
26:09
call that desperately trying to claw back. Yeah,
Zain
26:11
Yeah, desperately trying to be relevant. Your
Zain
26:13
speech where he never said 9-11, by the way. I'll give him that. First
Carter
26:16
First speech where anybody asked him to speak. speak um he he he's done he's been done for 12 years right like he he hasn't got a hope in hell of being anything okay someone reminded me uh actually i thought of this myself yeah yeah um
Carter
26:33
he hasn't he's he hasn't been elected we have for like 20 years yeah and he's never won a statewide election this is the guy who's been invited to speak at the at the republican convention intervention he's not any more relevant than than scott baio who
Carter
26:48
who was in joni loves chachi here we go which was
Corey
26:50
was the show i made yeah
Carter
26:52
yeah which is a show that
Zain
26:53
that cory and i
Corey
26:54
horrible show you guys wrote hold
Zain
26:55
hold on so if 9-11 rudy giuliani 9-11 gets a call and you are working for him and
Zain
27:00
and you're like wait okay you have not been relevant for a very long time what do you actually tell him to do on stage rather than what he did last night is there was there a pathway way you think he's got people he's
Carter
27:11
let's just be hilarious he's
Carter
27:12
he's like he's taking the phone call himself he's like oh my god thank you donald i'll do whatever you like you
Corey
27:20
think donald called yeah i don't even think that i mean you're the cheapest guy he can afford steven carter what he's been paying for his 212 like cell phone that he had when he was mayor of new york 10 years longer than anybody's called it just because he's worried somebody needs to have that number in case they Somebody may call sometime.
Zain
27:38
Answer my question, though. Like, seriously, what's the advice you give Giuliani? Because clearly... I've got advice for you. You? I do.
Zain
27:45
Is it legitimate or are you going
Corey
27:46
going to take a shit on me?
Corey
27:48
It's legitimate advice. His problem is the Wayne Gretzky problem, which Wayne Gretzky got from me. This is what I used to tell Wayne when I played hockey, which is you've got to go where
Corey
27:57
where the puck is going, not where the puck is.
Corey
28:00
You're the adventure of the puck, are you not?
Corey
28:03
Among many other things, yes. Yes, but the thing with the puck metaphor that I really want to stress here is
Corey
28:10
he's going to where the puck is. He's trying to jump on Team Crazy and Team Donald Trump, but there's no moment for him to flex any authority he gets from that relevancy. Trump is never going to really use him as a surrogate. He's a New Yorker as well. That's just not going to happen. If he had done the opposite, if Giuliani had given the anti-Trump speech, we'd
Corey
28:30
we'd be talking about it. And if Trump flailed or flamed out, we'd
Corey
28:34
we'd be talking about it.
Carter
28:35
So here's the question Zane should have asked.
Carter
28:39
He should have asked, why did Trump reach out to Rudy Giuliani?
Carter
28:43
That's a good question. Why? Answer it.
Carter
28:45
He's completely counterfeited in terms of he has no electoral relevance. He can't help this candidate get elected. This candidate already has a higher profile in New York, is probably more popular than Rudy Giuliani. so why is it that he's even being approached to speak and that's where i think you see a degree of desperation the
Carter
29:08
the speakers yesterday were
Carter
29:10
were bad the story coming out of this was that trump's wife whose name i can't pronounce melanie i think melanie let's go with that yeah let's go with melanie she
Corey
29:18
was let's not go with melanie keep going okay why
Carter
29:21
why don't you look it up michelle Michelle Obama, Trump's
Carter
29:23
Trump's wife Michelle, was
Carter
29:25
was the best speech of the night before
Carter
29:28
before they found out that she plagiarized the speech. Yeah,
Zain
29:32
Yeah, and we'll get to
Carter
29:33
to it. That's the whole thing right there is that you've got people who are so bad that
Carter
29:39
that the plagiarized speech was crushing them.
Zain
29:42
Corey, I'm going to—Carter, that was a good question, so I'll ask Corey it. Yeah. I'm just going to just take it. Corey, why was Giuliani
Corey
29:49
Giuliani asked in your mind? mind
Corey
29:51
think there's two answers there's the cynical and there's the non-cynical let's start with the non-cynical and the non-cynical is trump is a new yorker and new york was attacked on september 11 2001 in a way that is shocking and still chills people to the core you ever want to get off side of a new york friend of yours make a joke about 9-11 to this day i dare you it really hurts them to this day and it's and it's like a ptsd thing it is real okay they still think about And it still permeates a lot of the public discussions about safety in New York, and it will for the foreseeable future. There's a reason we all remember where we were on September 11th, 2001.
Corey
30:27
Let's not minimize that attack. And I think that when you're a Republican and you think about Rudy Giuliani, you're probably thinking about that and very little else, especially if you're from outside of New York. And I think that that's one of the main reasons he was brought out for that security thing. The more cynical answer is, frankly, it was security night, and they had to go through the list, and serious people were saying no, and Rudy Giuliani hadn't said no. I think that's
Carter
30:48
that's the point. I think that serious people who had serious thoughts and serious things to say all said no, and
Carter
30:54
and that creates havoc.
Zain
30:56
Okay, let's pivot from this to the actual speech we want to talk about. So Melania Trump gives the speech. Carter, question to you first. And
Zain
31:04
And I think the answer conventionally is quite obvious. obvious but why was she asked to speak on monday night in
Zain
31:11
in your mind or what do you think the trump camp was thinking they always ask the spouse it's
Corey
31:15
it's like this weird thing they do in america no
Carter
31:17
no but i think that in this particular case i want to know getting her out this
Zain
31:23
on monday not not the wednesday the night but i think you have to keep
Carter
31:26
keep in mind the whole week right the all four days there's a trump speaking there's
Carter
31:30
there's a trump speaking every single day as we go through through these four days and uh
Carter
31:36
trump believes rightly or wrongly and probably rightly that the value of his campaign is
Carter
31:42
is his name and
Carter
31:44
and he is going to keep pumping it out the same way that he puts the same way that he puts trump on the side of all of his buildings yeah he believes that if he's to put trump on every single day of this convention he wins this the he wins the convention he gets It's the big publicity on the way out, and that's the story moving forward. An
Zain
32:02
An alternative sort of rationale. Corey, do you feel like it is that, or do you think it's more conventional in this case where the spouse humanized, et cetera?
Corey
32:10
She was always going to be asked, and she was always going to be giving a speech because political spouses in America do that for some reason. It's the weirdest thing. But I think Stephen's broader point is a strong one, and it's why every other Trump, short of his son Barron, is being asked. uh by
Corey
32:31
the way you gotta love the names he gives his kids baron tiffany what's the common thread what a tool oh my god this guy is nasty but um but
Corey
32:41
but that argument that uh steven just put forward which i hadn't thought of but now was actually my idea i want you all to know this is nauseating
Corey
32:50
a pretty good one you got to get the trump brand out there i've always been saying that oh
Zain
32:54
always said that i've
Carter
32:55
i've always heard you say that's why i repeated it
Zain
32:57
it tell me this Yes. The media narrative, as soon as she finished that speech, was pretty good. Not bad. I wish she included an anecdote. And then it quickly shifted to the plagiarism case. What do you just broadly comment on the media narrative that we saw from, honestly, the end of that speech to then 45 minutes later when there's only one dominant theme coming out of it? Well,
Carter
33:16
Well, I think what you see is PAC mentality of the media, right? Every media outlet starts the day with the Never Trump movement. Every media outlet moves to the Trump speech. You know, Mrs. Trump is creating, you know, she's got the most coherent speech. It's the best speech of the day. And in fairness, it probably was. was um and
Carter
33:41
an out-of-work journalist tweets that hey this has been plagiarized um everybody moves to it in
Carter
33:48
in a heartbeat like this yes this like on mass the story on mass and to me it was a really interesting reminder of
Carter
33:56
of the uh you know as much as we like to portray the media as you know you know cnn has a bias or fox has a bias everybody covered this story everybody put put this story at the top and that
Carter
34:09
that was that to me was fascinating to be reminded yet again that uh
Carter
34:16
they they want their stories and they will go whatever someone else is reporting they're going to report to coy
Zain
34:22
coy any comments on the on the on the quickly shifting on mass media narrative i
Corey
34:27
i the media are sharks and they had blood in the water what do you want from them They jumped from minor crisis to minor crisis all day.
Corey
34:35
They all sent people hoping for a major crisis. Some of them literally sent wartime correspondents. I'm not joking. They were prepared for a disaster, and they did not get a disaster, so they were waiting for the next best thing. And, you know, the white elevator, well, a funny Twitter visual, had no malice behind it. The comments, what has non-whites ever done? Now I'm grossly exaggerating what he said. But they were bad, but they were not by like somebody who was – They were not war.
Corey
35:04
This was great for them though. This was a primetime speaker saying something that was potentially quite controversial. And the plagiarism is just – what a funny charge, especially when you think about all of the people who say the worst things about Trump. The rules he breaks, how he's inauthentic at the end of the day. this
Corey
35:23
this just played into a narrative and a negative image of trump that how could you you could not let this thing pass you had to swing at this stephen
Zain
35:30
stephen carter what do you make of the response of the trump campaign as it relates to the brand of the trump campaign okay so the response they've had today is largely denying it saying oh whatever who cares it's such a thing like is that on brand for donald trump when cory
Carter
35:45
cory and i did the calculations we found that 93 of the of the the speech was in fact not plagiarized right and i think that that's really the important number to focus
Carter
35:54
focus on is that 97 percent of the speech was
Zain
35:56
was not yeah i'm
Carter
35:57
i'm sorry 93 i was rounding up anyways the point is um now the 93 not plagiarized does include the rick astley plagiarism but
Carter
36:08
but i think that that's just a coincidence what
Corey
36:11
i don't know what are you talking about did
Carter
36:13
you not see this this new meme that's going around so not only that they've now found that melania melania trump this is
Corey
36:20
is not a hard name but keep going that's why immigrants hate you she
Carter
36:25
she said the the lines to never gonna give you up yeah
Carter
36:30
in the rick in rick astley's song cory is in the speech okay she plagiarized rick astley she got rick she rickrolled the republican national convention mention she rickrolled us all she rickrolled us all anyways not important what is important you think is that 97 93 of this speech was not plagiarized and that's what we need to focus on you
Carter
36:52
you have not answered my question i have that you're not willing to listen you're
Carter
36:56
you're in the media
Carter
36:57
you've got the right you're looking for the wrong answers people look at how the media are trying to come after me cory
Corey
37:03
cory was this on brand by the way that was pretty good trump you're
Corey
37:06
uh was Was this on brand?
Corey
37:10
Well, it was on brand for Stephen. It was on brand for Donald, his reaction. It was on brand for everybody involved. I'm not talking about the plagiarism. I'm talking about the response. Okay, good. But it's part of why it played so big and so broad, right? The response that Donald Trump gave was classic Donald Trump. Deny, deny, deny, deny, attack, deny, deny, which is the craziest thing. So I think about this and how this could have possibly happened, right? And I try to put myself in the head of it. And I've written a number of speeches for other people in my life.
Corey
37:45
when you're talking to somebody about a speech or even you yourself as you're thinking about how you want to lay out the speech, people will say like, I really like what they did there. Or I really like this particular comment that was in a different speech somewhere else. And you'll take it and you'll put it in a document. And if you're smart, you'll clearly block out this was from somebody else. but
Corey
38:04
but that's the sentiment and the feeling and the length and the pith that you're going for whatever the sentiment is you're trying to grab and
Corey
38:11
I can easily see how a speech writer after several drafts if they weren't very careful with that kind of blocking took
Corey
38:16
took the blocks out didn't really change it, it went a few more drafts which is why there's a few words different but my god so when I first heard about this I thought oh is it really plagiarism, people cry that all the time and then I looked at it, it's fucking plagiarism no it's absolutely copied copied yeah yeah um but i could see how it could happen accidentally now
Corey
38:37
now the problem i think the rick
Carter
38:38
rick astley thing is an accident right
Carter
38:39
right you've got two
Carter
38:41
lines from a song they
Corey
38:42
just have i'm not but i'm just saying i'm
Carter
38:45
i'm coming in and saying i i
Corey
38:47
with you i'm saying that even the actual speech no like one of those blocks i think it could happen accidentally but what he would have had to admit at that point was that either a conversation happened or a thought happened amongst the speechwriter like that was a great speech thus confirming admitting it was a great speech or
Corey
39:02
or or they would have had to uh lie deny or or just say like otherwise it was malicious and they were trying to steal it um their options were bad and so i guess trump because trump doesn't like to ever uh lose face you know by his own volition uh he just he just doubled down he's like no it was great speech screw all of you what's your problem well
Corey
39:25
it would have been so so easy for him to be doesn't
Carter
39:27
doesn't he exemplify what we've talked about on doubling down yeah
Carter
39:30
yeah he is the ultimate we've talked about how don't apologize move except reject the premise of the question move forward we've talked about this we are the problem cory you and i so hold on carter's listening mostly me carter
Zain
39:44
carter you are in position to advise him on this what do you what do you tell him do you tell him to double down or do you honestly do what you said earlier which just change the channel um
Carter
39:55
um i'd change the channel you would yeah i mean i i think that doubling down on this when you've got four days of news just gives you another cycle how
Zain
40:02
how would you have changed the channel in this particular instance move a
Carter
40:05
a speaker put somebody bigger up or create another habit i'd actually even consider creating my own chaos on the floor really
Carter
40:13
oh yeah get off of this don't let your wife take this head change
Zain
40:16
change the channel cory what do you think um
Corey
40:20
the coward's way would have been fire a staffer and move on yeah the brave man's way would have admitted how it happened and move on he's chosen the third way this this is difficult because almost any response is going to kick it another day i mean here we are talking about it the next day he it's tough to change it's easy to say you change the channel it's tough to actually do it i i don't know his
Corey
40:42
his strategy generally speaking has been uh has been predicated on people never calling him out for his shit and his base never does i don't know why they'd start now so well it's not something i'd recommend to candidates here he seems to be a very unique case why not okay
Zain
40:58
okay let's move it on to our next segment steven carter your favorite segment our sponsor campaign tech chicago august 4th in chicago last week you're telling people to shit or get off the pot what's your message this week sir if
Carter
41:09
if you're still on the pot your legs are asleep this is a serious problem for you we are 15 days away from a really really good conference
Carter
41:16
i'm really looking forward to it i mean i've gone on to a bunch of these conferences and i think we'll
Zain
41:19
we'll be there you and i will be there yeah
Carter
41:20
yeah i think sometimes you go to a conference you wonder what am i what am i going to get out of it am i actually going to learn something is is this going to be something where i go down and they're simply going to affirm what i already know let
Carter
41:31
let me tell you this is not that conference this is not a conference that you go down to and they give you things you already know this is a conference that you go down to and
Carter
41:38
and you learn something every
Carter
41:40
every session because these people that we'll be learning from the people who will be there are the very best in the world of what they do and
Carter
41:49
opportunity to sit and talk to people at the height
Zain
41:51
height of the u.s political campaign i mean
Carter
41:53
mean it's interesting for us as canadians because the americans have so much money that they try everything and they throw everything at it whereas we come in and we say well yeah we did that for 25 000 and they look at us like we've got three heads because it's not even possible but we can take what they've done and we can scale it to canadian politics and i totally uh recommend and especially for people in British Columbia and Alberta.
Carter
42:17
Get out there. We've got leaderships looming. We've got elections looming. There's a lot of opportunity to get down and actually learn something that you can apply. Get
Zain
42:26
Get your tickets now. CampaignTechChicago.com. Offer code STRATEGIST. You save 5%. It'll be an awesome conference. We'll be there. It'll be fun times. It will be so much fun.
Zain
42:35
Good. That's great. Okay, let's move it on to our next segment. Our next segment, Pence He Chose Pence. Corey, VP pick.
Zain
42:43
VP pick. pick conventional is what you mentioned in a previous segment so i'm going to start it there why do you think donald trump made such a conventional choice with his vice presidential pick so his party didn't hang him out to dry
Corey
42:55
think uh he's worried about his base he's worried about gary johnson a former that's a huge
Zain
43:00
at this point if you're worried about your base it's
Corey
43:02
it's crazy that he's worrying about his base as we're going into convention but two former republican governors make up the ticket for the libertarian party they are polling around eight percent right now in the not insignificant not insignificant at all he's got to make some serious moves to shore up the part that he's bleeding hillary clinton's also bleeding to the libertarians by the way but he's got to shore up his side or
Corey
43:24
or else it's going to be a very short campaign he won't get any money we've talked about that being the life talk to money his donors are just lackluster at best and and he won't get any volunteers and you need money and volunteers to run campaigns you can't run it all on just being an obnoxious tool who we remember from From season one of The Apprentice, which was pretty good, and season three of The Apprentice, which I remember watching, but I can't recall it being good. Which is funny because I believe I created The Apprentice.
Corey
43:51
I was just waiting for
Zain
43:53
for you to say that.
Corey
43:54
He needed a pick like this because he has had such a rough time with his base. Unfortunately for him, it will not necessarily align with his brand in a way that I think is particularly cohesive, right? You could not get past the awkwardness that the two had in the two things that I've seen.
Zain
44:16
The 60 Minutes interview is cringeworthy.
Corey
44:18
I couldn't get through it. I had to turn it off. It was also really strange because I'm an executive producer at 60 Minutes.
Corey
44:28
don't know. I don't know what they're going to do. No one else is going to find this funny. That's fine.
Corey
44:32
If this show was ever made for other people, I missed that. Yeah, it's not
Corey
44:36
our mandate. date i just
Corey
44:38
just don't know that it's going to work and i guess the challenge becomes if you can't ever be on stage with your vp pick like they've got to be relegated to somewhere inhospitable like indiana where he's from then what do you do with the guy like what was the point of making that pick at all it seems like a pretty high price to pay uh but it does meet the first maximum vice presidential picks is something i've said i coined this phrase do no harm with your vice presidential pick. So
Zain
45:06
So Stephen Carter, Corey's given us the mindset of Donald Trump in terms of why he picked Mike Pence. In your opinion, was
Zain
45:13
was this the correct move that he needed to make
Zain
45:16
at this point in time?
Carter
45:18
I don't know. I don't think so. I mean, you've got the governor of Indiana. So here's where the battleground states lie around Indiana. There's some argument as to whether or not Indiana itself is a battleground state. But you've got Ohio, you've got Michigan, you've got wisconsin you've got iowa you've got virginia pennsylvania and florida how
Carter
45:40
how does mike pence help you in any of those markets and that's what i don't understand
Corey
45:43
understand yeah i mean maybe it's very different in the united states but as a canadian it's not like i think i'm more likely to look with disdain on the premiers near my province because those are the people you're going to have the fights with and the conflicts right so i mean
Carter
45:56
mean there's there's an argument to be made to go west and try and find someone from the west there's an argument to be made to try and find someone from Florida. I
Carter
46:04
I guess Florida's taken out because you can't ask Marco Rubio.
Carter
46:07
And if you don't ask Marco Rubio, then whatever, okay? So now we've got to go somewhere else. But this particular guy, this particular baseline
Carter
46:19
conservative Republican doesn't win you any votes with swing voters. In fact, he costs you votes with swing voters. And the last time I checked, the people who swing an election back and forth are called swing elections, which I believe is why Corey coined the phrase swing
Carter
46:42
do you justify this when you're trying to actually build a bigger Republican tent? Unless you say, fuck
Carter
46:49
fuck the tent, we're going to go right back down to the base. We're going to try and add as many base people as possible. And we're just going to play a GOTV game. And maybe that's the play, but I don't think this is going to help them in any way, shape, or form.
Corey
47:01
Well, I think that it's trying to take
Corey
47:04
take care of a concern that some Republicans had that you
Corey
47:07
you moved your tent right off of your campground, right? And so you've got to go talk to the person who's now on the campground still and pences that guy.
Corey
47:16
Because there is not another way that you can really interpret this. I just worry that their
Corey
47:20
their chemistry is so poor that I've seen in these initial reactions, which of course it is. I mean, Donald Trump is a like a multiple times married, like blowhard asshole who's from New York City. And he's supposed to get along with like this very socially conservative, very conservative in general governor of Indiana. I mean, that's but
Carter
47:40
but I don't think it would have mattered who he put up on that stage.
Carter
47:44
Donald Trump is not going to stand to his left while the vice presidential candidate is making his acceptance speech.
Carter
47:50
There is no way that Donald Trump stands silently to the left and lets the other guy make a speech. That just doesn't happen.
Zain
47:58
Corey, I want to question specifically for you because I know you are very much into the communication of design and all that sort of stuff. Let's talk very quickly about the logo debacle with Trump-Pence.
Zain
48:09
First of all, what is the importance of a logo and what the hell is pretty much my comment because I know you probably have something to say here.
Corey
48:15
Yeah, I think the importance of a logo is zero. People mistake logo and brand all the time. And if you spend your time thinking about your logo or even worse, replacing your logo continually because you have a problem with your brand, give your head a shake. And so I think that the Trump campaign reacted wisely by just pulling the logo. There's no need for a logo in a presidential campaign. Trump, make America great again. That language is disdainful as I have feelings of for it. I mean, the
Corey
48:43
the idea of just using that and that word was fine. and so going back to that made a lot of sense now i will say this though i
Corey
48:52
what amateur they got to build it it's a good it's an okay concept it's obviously got some sexual innuendo behind it i mean that's what you're talking about a hundred percent it looks like the t is violating the p and this like joined logo but
Corey
49:05
but there are some things that i look at i'm like there's no way a professional designer did that like the white space between like where where everything intersects, there's got to be like seven different differences in the width there. And that's the kind of stuff that just screams it was built by a very small group with very little outside expert help. And when you do that, nobody's like, hey, that looks like a penis penetrating, you know. And that's how you end up with things like that. Or here closer to home, Danielle Smith had her bus and the two wheels right where her chest would be. Stephen Carter,
Zain
49:34
Carter, the importance of a logo. Very quickly, I want to get your thoughts on this, especially not especially in a presidential, but in a campaign in general. What are your thoughts on that?
Carter
49:41
There's no importance to a logo. You
Zain
49:43
You guys are aligned on this.
Carter
49:44
Yeah, I mean, we've spent a lot of money on these things. No one pays a lot of attention to the logo. And frankly,
Carter
49:51
frankly, when you've got such a personification of a campaign, you've
Carter
49:54
you've got something that corporations don't have. Corporations need a logo because they need some sort of visual reference. A
Carter
50:00
campaign literally has the candidate's face. That is your visual representation. So, you know, a corporation would pay millions and millions of dollars to have that kind
Carter
50:11
personification, right? And, you know, you look at –
Carter
50:16
and on top of that, you rarely, if ever, see a campaign logo that is Apple,
Carter
50:21
right? The Apple logo with its brilliant design or the Nike logo because there's no way on God's green earth a campaign would take that kind of risk.
Corey
50:29
Well, pop quiz for you guys. What was Bill Clinton's logo? What was George W. Bush's logo? You remember Obama's logo, but he's still president. And it was, in my opinion, the best presidential logo I've seen in a while. That
Carter
50:41
That logo was as good as you're going to get.
Corey
50:44
Yeah. But people don't remember these things. They can cause damage. That's it. Let's
Zain
50:48
Let's talk about one of the biggest losers in the sense of this vice presidential pick, Chris Christie. So the man with dead eyes, what is your plan for Chris Christie, who was the first major Republican to endorse Donald Trump with the hopes that he could stand beside him, saying that he's the only guy who can defeat Hillary Clinton, not getting this nod. What do you do today if you were advising Chris Christie, Stephen Carter?
Carter
51:12
Well, I mean, he's been tasked with doing the transition team. Correct.
Zain
51:15
Correct. It's a role, but it's not the role he wanted. Listen,
Carter
51:17
Listen, it's a role. And I think that when you're Chris Christie, when you've decided to put your head in this particular lion's mouth, you try and not piss off the lion. and so you do the job as best you can and
Carter
51:30
and you want people to talk about how good you did how
Carter
51:33
how well I'm sorry how well you did how good you did so that you can actually
Carter
51:39
after this is done point to what you've achieved and say look at I
Carter
51:44
had to do it with Trump but look at how well this was actually completed and
Carter
51:48
and hopefully people will remember you for that Corey
Zain
51:49
Corey anything to add to the Chris Christie strategy how does he move on beyond this he
Corey
51:52
he didn't get what he wanted and he put all of his chips in on this hand And it sucks for him. I'm not sure that he's got much of a political future. But if he does, it's probably within the Trump administration. Let those words sink in. And for that reason, he's got to continue to be a team player. Okay,
Zain
52:09
Okay, final question on this segment. Hillary Clinton, her strategy, we'll talk about beyond convention, her strategy during the convention. What does she need to do? She's been putting out these 30, 40-second video clips just almost immediately. As soon as the chaos happened, she had this. What does she need to do during convention to maximize results for her? Corey, I'll go back to you on this.
Corey
52:32
don't know. I think this is one of those things where you want to be rapid with your response, but you don't want to be obnoxious. Or like a troll
Zain
52:38
troll in a sense. Yeah, right.
Corey
52:40
You're going to have your convention next week. Just sort of let it fall as it falls. Every election cycle, there is two conventions, and somebody gets a bump after their convention. And that's just the way life is. But beyond
Corey
52:54
beyond that, I think you just want to be fact-checking like crazy. Tonight, there's going to be a video at the GOP convention called Hill Liar-ry, with liar in all capitals in the middle of Hillary's name. Of course. Of course there is. Yeah, of course there is. Jesus.
Corey
53:10
This is, by the way, the kind of attack on Hillary Clinton that I'd expect, right? Yeah. It's probably a good strategy. you just have to be ready to to in real time have your talking heads as it's being deconstructed on the network give you know the 50 things that were just outright lies in that video hillary
Zain
53:26
hillary clinton during sorry hillary clinton during the convention stephen carter what does she need to do in your mind or
Zain
53:32
or what is she looking to do more specifically i'm
Carter
53:34
i'm actually really impressed i think that her her response to this so far has been quite measured i mean she put out something on uh
Carter
53:43
on the floor fight and, you know, the law and order party. But then when the plagiarism charges started, she
Carter
53:50
she got out of the way.
Carter
53:51
One of the very first rules of politics, which I believe, again, was coined by Corey, was,
Carter
53:57
you know, is get out of the way of your component when they're destroying themselves.
Carter
54:00
And so to that end, you do not want to be spinning a
Carter
54:03
a negative cycle that already starts.
Carter
54:06
Tonight, you're going to get attacked. You know you're going to get attacked.
Carter
54:09
have your truth sayers out to refute those attacks. But I think that doing much more than that would be counterproductive.
Zain
54:18
One final question, actually, I'm going to add. Corey, you mentioned earlier, she may try to eliminate the Friday, Saturday, Sunday news cycle by letting something leak or maybe a vice presidential pick. Would you advise that you do something on that on that Friday, Saturday, Sunday, if it's her to try to, you know, eliminate or limit the bump Trump may get?
Corey
54:36
get? Absolutely. I'm sure that they have a strategy. It would be an incredibly poor media plan if it didn't have something. And they're going to do it on Friday. They're going to do it just unless, by the way, the only reason they might not do it is if it's such a flaming disaster of a speech that they're just like, well, let's just see how this lands over the weekend. Yeah.
Corey
54:55
And then you just sort of pull everything back to the Monday and you just get get going but that
Corey
55:00
that that seems pretty wishful thinking i guess maybe so yeah you're going to try to trample all over his halo if it looks at all like there's going to be a halo okay
Zain
55:08
okay let's move it on to our final segment our over under our lightning round our in and out guys are you ready
Corey
55:14
steven you're never going to answer my question
Carter
55:15
i'm still stuck on in and out trump pens
Zain
55:18
pens here we go on a scale of one to ten so far the convention what do you give it steven Stephen Carter, one to ten. Two. Two.
Corey
55:27
It's fine. I mean, a three or a four. Yeah. If we're saying five as an average convention, a three or a four. The
Zain
55:33
The master of the photo op, Justin Trudeau, came to Calgary for Stampede Week or the second half of Stampede Week. Announcements, hand-holding, time with the kids at the Stampede. In or out on Justin Trudeau based on his appearance at the Stampede. Corey? I missed it entirely. I
Carter
55:46
was incredibly muted for Justin Trudeau in photo ops. Interesting.
Zain
55:49
Interesting. So dig a little bit deeper. Was that a fail? or was that deliberate on his part, you think?
Carter
55:54
I think it was a bit of a fail. I think the Stampede is one of those things that you need to be there for. I was wondering why the MPs had their Stampede breakfasts in the second week of the Stampede, which is kind of one of those tough
Carter
56:07
tough weeks to get Calgarians out to, although I understand Kent Harris' breakfast was ridiculously packed.
Carter
56:15
They really need a new venue. you but the the end game of this particular thing is that justin trudeau came at a time when no one cared about stampede and put on his stampede duds and that's a tricky tricky thing to try and get coverage of cory
Zain
56:31
cory scale of one to ten jason kenney watch how's his last week been he was out you know glad handling and glad handling in stampede meeting people doing his thing what do you give justin jason kenney last week oh
Corey
56:41
oh not good you know i'm i feel like he's almost doing ineptly to to to try to prove me wrong with my early he-could-be-a-real-contender kind of thinking of him. I think even today I saw in the Globe and Mail Danielle Smith had written something about how I think Brian Jean's going to come out on top of this thing. You weren't seeing those articles the day after. He has not landed with the kind of force that he expected to land with.
Zain
57:06
One to ten, Stephen Carter, Jason Kenney, this past Stampede week here in Alberta, or in Calgary specifically. I think
Carter
57:11
think a four because I think that there's some money moving his way, but I don't know that necessarily necessarily any voters and moving his
Zain
57:16
over under on six deepak obry saying he's going to run for the conservative leadership contest after making it six you
Carter
57:22
you put the over under on six i
Zain
57:24
i put the over under on six okay
Carter
57:26
i think you could have put it at four and would have had a more content and more over under his
Corey
57:30
his impact to the race i'm not saying if he's going to win his impact to the race well then you should have put the over under on two yeah
Carter
57:37
two i mean i've never I've never seen a launch go so flat. Like, it was flat.
Carter
57:42
flat. The highest bump he got is, is this a guy who's trying to help Peter McKay?
Zain
57:47
Well, hopefully this next scale is more reasonable. Over, under, on six, Hillary Clinton's convention strategies so far are a response to the Republican convention. Over, under, on six. It's six or seven. It's fine. It's just over. Just over. Yeah. Finally, the last question before we end it off here. Stephen
Zain
58:03
Carter, to you, how many points will Donald Trump get on his post-convention bounce? In aggregate of polls, what's the bounce? He's at it right now. He's four points behind.
Carter
58:13
This is it. This is as high as he goes. Any
Zain
58:15
Any post-convention bounce, Corey Hogan?
Corey
58:18
Well, it's pretty tough to say after one day. The speech, of course, with the plagiarism, people will forgive her. I mean, there's this thing I coined. The two air is human, so people will understand that sometimes mistakes are made. um how
Corey
58:33
how do much of a bounce it depends on where you measure the baseline but i would wager it be pretty conventional probably three or four points interesting
Corey
58:40
okay we'll leave it there that's a wrap
Zain
58:41
wrap on episode 583 of the strategist my name is zane felch with me as always cory hogan stephen carter and we'll see you next time