Transcript
SPEAKER_01
0:02
This is a strategist episode 563. My name is Zain Velji. With me as always, Corey Hogan, Stephen
SPEAKER_01
0:08
Stephen Carter. What? Do you guys think I needed reinforcements there? What's
Carter
0:11
What's going on? No, we're going high energy today.
SPEAKER_01
0:14
to go high energy. Why are we trying to go high energy? We're compensating, so let's get into it.
Corey
0:21
You know what, Corey? Go ahead. Host the show. That's fine. That's fine.
Corey
0:25
That's good. Just do your thing. It's fine. You're the
Carter
0:27
the world's best host, Zane. Honest.
Carter
0:30
I don't need the ego boost right now. We auditioned a couple of guys last week. It didn't work out. So we're still here. Yeah,
SPEAKER_01
0:34
Yeah, that's true. We auditioned a couple of guys. Well, we should have after the response from last episode. People either loved it or wanted to rip our heads off. So it was really a tale of two camps. Now,
Carter
0:45
Now, in fairness, only the proportional vote people wanted to rip our heads off. And we don't care about them. But
SPEAKER_01
0:50
they were insistent. They kept on going. You know, when I say reach out to us on Twitter, I mean send us a note. We respond back. this was like a thread of like 450 messages and i blame you cory for engaging yeah
Corey
1:02
know what and after last episode i kind of claimed maybe i would maybe i wouldn't engage i just went in with both feet that's okay so yeah i think we'll be talking more about that we can get into the more arcane pr stuff in the future but god not today come on like okay
SPEAKER_01
1:16
okay not today i won't get into it today but let's move on to our first segment ball don't crawl okay this is about i want to try to to hit a theme. I want to try to hit a theme, and we may be successful in it. We may not. We are compensating today, certainly. I'm not going to tell you for what, because I don't know. Clearly, these two are.
SPEAKER_01
1:34
But I want to talk about political parties and candidates now starting to go for moonshots more than they are for the small ball changes. And I think we've seen a few examples recently within institutional parties here in Canada and the United States. Most recently with with Bernie Sanders' uptick in Iowa, we are seeing that and a lot of the narrative around that is because he, unlike Hillary Clinton, is going for the big issues, large reforms, standing to the left, making big changes that are noticeable, whereas Clinton may be a little bit more predictable or a little bit more mainstay in how she's moving. We've seen it with Donald Trump. And frankly, I wanted to get your guys' opinion if we've seen it with Rachel Notley and Justin Trudeau. But let's start with the guy I mentioned off top, because I think this is a very interesting story and it's finally entering the zeitgeist february is the iowa caucus cory february 1st
Corey
2:23
are we talking about bernie sanders
SPEAKER_01
2:24
sanders let's talk about bernie sanders because i want to go there first lay it on me what what is what is your take in terms of first him as a candidate and then let's talk about if his ideas are actually what's moving him forward yeah
Corey
2:35
yeah well right off the top it's not just that he's looking like he's in the race in iowa it's that national polls there was this new york times cbs poll that came out that showed the race tightening significantly nationally between Between him and Hillary Clinton. Now, it's one poll, but what was really fascinated about it is that of primary and caucus goers under 45, under 45, we're not talking under 30, we're not talking, you know, the hacky sack crowd. Under 45, we've
Corey
3:00
we've got Bernie Sanders leading two to one. Two
Carter
3:03
Two to one. Five years ago, I defined youth voters as anybody under 40 for Nenshi. And it's been five years since I did that. And now here we are, people under 45 are still youth voters.
Corey
3:14
Arrested development, I guess. Yeah,
Carter
3:16
Yeah, they have a different model of making their voting decisions, and it's not necessarily a good voting model. Did
SPEAKER_01
3:22
Did those youth voters show up for you in
Carter
3:23
in Nenshi? Some did. The plus 35s did. Not so much the 25 to 35.
SPEAKER_01
3:29
So I guess, you know, it's interesting, and I don't want to just stop the Sanders conversation there, but I want to actually go back to the larger point for a second. is
SPEAKER_01
3:36
this new is this new where you have candidates who when compared to their counterparts in races and despite their popularity talk about huge total you know shifts okay that they're gaining this momentum let's
Corey
3:49
let's context this right you know it's only huge shifts relative to the 90s where we decided we'd solved all our problems and we're just refining things but the reality is the political spectrum as we talk about it today has become is probably as narrow as it's ever been You know, the left is talking about, like, they
Corey
4:07
they talk about raising taxes to lower than the taxes Klein was under here in Alberta, or that Clinton had in the 90s, right? I mean, the fact is, we've kind of just gotten
Corey
4:19
gotten to this point where we think it's big and dramatic to do things that are still within that liberal, democratic, you know, capitalist sphere. we don't really like
Corey
4:29
like what are we really talking about what is bernie sanders really saying that is so outrageous uh really when you put it in the context of the 20th century where we had movements like fascism and communism and all of these other isms we're still just refining the system and if these refinements seem big it's only big relative to where those refinements that's
Carter
4:46
that's a fair point carter do you have anything to say well i think that there's two things first of all i think that cory doesn't see the big shift in bernie sanders because cory's looking from a canadian lens and with a canadian lens really bernie sanders is not that big a deal in
Carter
4:59
in the american lens bernie sanders is a big deal and the other side of it is trump cruz uh carson right
Carter
5:06
who are also a big deal non-institutional
Carter
5:09
you know so what what cory is representing is hey maybe you know you know sanders isn't that big a deal because he's actually moving towards what we would consider uh as a canadian common sense and i'm not saying that i mean our Our right-wing parties in Canada don't measure up to the right-wing nature of the Democrats, let alone the Republicans in the United States.
Corey
5:28
Well, but does Bernie Sanders even want taxes as high as they were under Reagan? No,
Carter
5:31
No, but he is very left in the popular mythology of the United States right now when you look at the right. Right.
Carter
5:43
Right. When you look at Cruz and Trump and Carson, you have got, you know, what Zayn is going for, very far right positions. But I don't
Corey
5:54
don't think that Trump holds a candle to Barry Goldwater. Like, my point is, if you take this and put it into some perspective, these are not radicals by any way, shape or form. Goldwater
Corey
6:02
Goldwater was a nutcase.
Corey
6:03
What I think is interesting is
Corey
6:05
that these people are being branded as radicals. And to me, that is what's fascinating, because it's not actually diminishing their appeal whatsoever. It
SPEAKER_01
6:13
It isn't. And we've seen that on both sides. But Corey, hit on me, hit on that a little bit more for me in the sense that them being branded as radicals, what do you think that's a response to today? Like,
SPEAKER_01
6:24
Like, is that because we've only had iterative growth since the 90s, like
Corey
6:28
Yeah, I mean, everything is relative to the baseline that is today, right? And if you've been sitting there arguing, you know, I mean, I remember last election here in Alberta, there
Corey
6:38
there was, and I actually think Rachel Notley doesn't belong in that group of radicals, because I thought, so-called radicals, because I thought the NDP in Alberta ran a pretty centrist platform last election. but you
Corey
6:50
you had everybody was sort of saying oh no no small business taxes have to be three percent or lower that was the consensus among all of the parties in alberta right some of them wanted to lower it further nobody
Corey
7:00
nobody wanted to raise the corporate income tax further than to 12 percent from 10 percent it was 15 percent in the 90s right i mean these are not big radical changes is is the point but how it's playing is is um it
Corey
7:16
it for the last 20 years we've been dealing with With politicians saying we're going to be consensus builders, we're going to be iterative, we're going to just stay the course, and we're going to make these small changes. And you know what? It hasn't really worked, has it? I mean, yes, the GDP has continued to grow at a
Corey
7:29
fairly anemic, like 2.5%, 3%. Right. But most
Corey
7:33
most of that is going to one class. Right.
Corey
7:35
Right. And I don't want to go full class warfare on you here, but you
Corey
7:39
you can't help but notice your relative slide and affluence relative to your neighbors. And so there are solutions on the left and solutions on the right. Right. And the solutions on the right are, well, you're being held down because the market can't be, you know, it has to be let loose. And if you can just be free of taxes, you're going to be well off, much better off. And that's their solution. And the solutions of the left are the reason you're not as well off is all of the money, all of the benefit is going to the upper classes. And that has to come back to everybody for redistribution. But the fact of the matter is they're both rejections of the status quo.
SPEAKER_01
8:13
Carter, tell me this. You brought up an interesting point, and I want to go back onto it for a second. Does
SPEAKER_01
8:17
Does this only work? Do candidates who represent big changes, either on the left or right, are they only successful if they have a countervailing force on the other side of the political spectrum competing against them? Is Sanders only successful if there is a Trump-like figure mirroring him to
SPEAKER_01
8:35
the right? You think it's
Corey
8:35
it's like Batman and the Joker?
Carter
8:37
Potentially. Potentially. Batman's evil unless the Joker is there, right? He's
Corey
8:43
He's like a deranged vigilante without
Carter
8:45
Without the Joker, Batman doesn't make sense. So yes,
Carter
8:50
yes, to your point, yes, I believe that you have
Carter
8:53
have to have the counter pressure in order to enable yourself
Carter
8:58
yourself to thrive in that kind of environment. But
Carter
9:01
But you can manufacture that too. I mean, Sanders
Carter
9:04
Sanders didn't need Trump.
Carter
9:06
Sanders is making Hillary Clinton into what he needs her to be in order for him to succeed. Well, I don't
Corey
9:13
don't know if I actually
Corey
9:14
think Sanders has done a pretty good job of being like, this isn't about Hillary. Hillary's fine. Yeah, but she's not going to solve your problems. And he's, he's funny. But you know what, I think the thing about Bernie Sanders, and I've said this before on the show months ago, six, seven months ago, at this point, was, this
Corey
9:28
this is like this crotchety 74 year old man at
Corey
9:32
at the front of this movement that is all of a sudden, almost
Corey
9:35
almost tied with Hillary Clinton, consummate politician, you know, next president to parent, right? Right. Yeah. What what if there was somebody with the charisma of a Barack Obama leading a far left, a far left movement in the United States? Sure. What would happen there?
Carter
9:52
I don't know. I mean, we're seeing someone with I
Carter
9:55
mean, does Donald Trump have charisma? Apparently he does. I don't think he does because it doesn't work on me, but it's working on an awful lot of people.
Carter
10:04
He's certainly he is, to me, the
Carter
10:07
the charismatic leader on the right hand side. When you compare him to Ted Cruz and you compare him to Carson, he certainly is charismatic or even Jeb Bush. Right.
Carter
10:16
Right. So when you see that kind of charisma on the right hand side, I think that's what you're seeing. An
Carter
10:22
An absolute idiot being able to pick up significant portions of the vote. Okay,
SPEAKER_01
10:27
Okay, so I wanted to go back to my original question here. Is this notion new? Corey, I'm hearing you say no. It's actually not new. It's actually not as accelerated or as hyped as it was back in the day, looking at the larger context. Carter, in your mind, is this new, what we're seeing right now, where we're seeing rather than having a pool of candidates going for iterative differences and clawing out amongst that, having people take huge or what I'm going to call more significant stances on the issues?
Carter
10:57
I think that Corey's correct in his historically no position, but I do think that relative to the most recent political success stories, they are new. I mean, Barack Obama, I think, wanted to cut out something that was a bit bigger. Clinton absolutely wanted to cut out something bigger but didn't because it was easier just to stay on very simple themes and stay in the center. um bush
Carter
11:23
bush is interesting because bush could have been further to the right i mean i think that we all believed him to be further to the right but when he campaigned he didn't campaign as a trump carson or cruz uh so yeah i think that in the in the in the short historical context this is new in the long historical context this isn't new um
Corey
11:45
yeah i mean it's you've heard as fickle as a roman mob before right this goes back millennia right right and there was really only a small period of history that we were so homogenous and moderate right and that was largely driven by we all had the same news sources walter cronkite was telling us all how the world was things like that that was a pretty short period of history when you really get right down to it yeah
Corey
12:06
uh you know national radio national television all of those things which are now breaking down into this like uh balkanization through the internet where you can get your opinions from msnbc fox Fox News, Huffington Post, Crazy Blogger, who just has a tinfoil hat. Ezra. Yeah, I said
Carter
12:21
said Ezra. Crazy Blogger. I said Ezra. Did I not say Ezra? Crazy Blogger with a tinfoil hat. Us. Us.
Corey
12:27
But, you know, I mean, I think what is surprising some people is that these forces were harnessable before. Like, there's always been people on the fringes, but the
Corey
12:37
the middle was so much bigger. But the middle has lost control of the edges. But
Carter
12:42
But there's a willingness to believe extraordinary claim now, too. right people aren't as educated over certain things right and one of those things is politics right
Carter
12:50
um people are far more educated about the football playoffs that are underway apparently um people tell me that they're looking at you yeah no idea we have no clue um
SPEAKER_01
13:01
but glossing over both of you what
Carter
13:02
what happens is the level of education is such that people um aren't taking in enough information to actually make critical decisions what they're doing is they're
Carter
13:13
they're just You're just way, way past me. You're baiting me. Okay, okay, okay. No, I'm not. We've been down this. No, I'm not. They don't have enough information. Corey
SPEAKER_01
13:20
Corey made a great point. You did as well. I like the point that said that people were not aware that this was harnessable. With that being said, a serious question here. Is this a new normal that we're going to be dealing with? Every cycle that we go in, are we expected to now have a candidate who was once considered fringe now take that position and not have to say – And potentially say, this person could be credible. This person is not just a fringe candidate anymore. They could be credible. And I want to talk about a recent example coming up shortly. But could this be the new normal, Stephen? I
Carter
13:52
I think it could be. I think especially in leaderships. Parties are ripe for this type of takeover. And ultimately, that's what we're in, in the Republican and Democratic structures right now. We are still in the leadership phase. They just do theirs through the primary system. system but uh the leaderships you could see this type of thing happening and i
Carter
14:14
think that people will be more successful i i think that you know and i don't want to jump ahead to your next question yeah i'm just gonna stop there okay
Corey
14:20
okay cory is this the new normal no there's no normal ever i mean this is how people get into uh syntax
SPEAKER_01
14:26
syntax and choreography this
Corey
14:27
this is how people get into trouble generals are always fighting the last war politicians
Corey
14:31
always fighting the last war This
Corey
14:32
is not the new normal. This is going to – no doubt there are trends that are going to be exacerbated in some cases and mitigated in other cases going forward. It is something we should all be very mindful of. Sure. It is something that I think will continue to have a bit of an effect. But there will be a backlash to the backlash. There always is.
Carter
14:51
Yeah. You'll see in one cycle or two cycles, centrists start to pop up again.
SPEAKER_01
14:55
I mean that's a very well-crafted sidestep of my question. or my question but but effectively
SPEAKER_01
15:00
effectively as as a strategist you're planning for the next cycle you're planning for the next race you've generally planned in one way i know you plan in the moment as well but how do you respond to something like this i don't i i
Corey
15:11
i think that when you sit back and you look at these things you want to be driven by broader more uh fundamental trends such as demographic shifts you don't want to be driven by the politics of the moment but
Corey
15:23
but when i do look at those demographic shifts and when i look at uh at
Corey
15:26
at what is feeding some of this you've got to look at income you've got to see how that's happening uh or how that is um how income is is becoming more disparate right and that's a growing trend and if that trend continues to grow you are going to see more desire for the facile answers of the left and the right but
Corey
15:43
but the far left and the far right i should say but there are other trends as well countervailing trends such as age and whatnot not and this is just gonna you're gonna have to look at this in a more you
Corey
15:53
you can't be so simple about it i guess i'm not suggesting you're trying to be simple about it no
SPEAKER_01
15:57
no i mean i'm trying to get answers and i think you're you're you're leading me
SPEAKER_01
16:00
me to my next question here which
Carter
16:01
is a hard question to answer though in the abstract yeah no of course just specific to say well what's gonna happen next well
SPEAKER_01
16:07
well i think i don't want to tease cory into to the next part of it but rachel notley you said she is not part of this this emerging radical uh and and part of your response both you know when you've said it on television as well as some articles that you've have written has been about demographics, has it not? Yeah, yeah. Well, and
Corey
16:22
and Alberta is an interesting case in Canada. So in the United States, the birth rate actually exceeds the 2.2 you need to replenish your population. They are still growing with Americans being born, right? That's not true in Canada. In Canada, we only grow because of immigration and migration as well. So in Canada, the
Corey
16:41
the baby boomers outnumber their children across
Corey
16:44
across the board in every single There's no single Canadian province except one.
Corey
16:48
And that one is here in Alberta. And that's because of all of the migration, either interprovincial or international, that's brought people here. So Alberta has become a younger place. It's become more ethnically diverse as those people have come from afar. And it has become subject to those economic pressures I was hinting at in demographics as well. Well, the Alberta demographics have changed so dramatically in the past 20 years. You know, twice as many people have university degrees, etc., etc. This is not the same place that elected Ralph Klein. And there is certainly a much more moderate
Corey
17:19
moderate to left presence in this province that did not exist even 10 years ago. When you look at the demographic bump and the bulge, it's really around 2006. It really takes off like wildfire. So what happened here wasn't necessarily what's happening in the United States. Because what's happening in the United States is everybody's sitting in the same place and their circumstances changing to a point that they've changed. Here
Corey
17:42
in Alberta, our province has changed. The composition of our province has changed to the point where our politics have changed. Right. So that's very different. And what Rachel Notley has managed to harness is this sense that this
Corey
17:55
this mythology of Klein and the right and the taxes being slashed and all of this nonsense that led us to this fiscal cliff that, by the way, can I just say, like, I will never get over the fact that the
Corey
18:07
the PC's called an election because
Corey
18:10
because we are in such dire fiscal straits. and like boom like a light switch all of a sudden after the election this big portion of the public just turned against the ndp and accused them of putting us in the dire fiscal straits like the very reason
Corey
18:23
we had the early election was why the ndp won stephen
SPEAKER_01
18:26
stephen carter cory gives a pretty succinct explanation as related to demographics when it really as concerning rachel notley and her election here is it as simple as that i don't mean to say you're simple is it as simple as that Is that or is there more to the story in your mind? Well, you have to
Carter
18:42
Life is a series of pendulums where you see a swing to one direction. This sounds very new age. It's very new age. I mean, you just sit on the swing and it just takes you and you feel good about yourself. But you move one direction and then you move another direction. We've seen it in federal politics forever. And we see it every 40 years or so. We're just on a slower swing. every 40 swings 40 years ago we changed the government whether it needs it or not in alberta and that's sample
SPEAKER_01
19:11
size what three no sample size four four okay okay
Carter
19:15
okay so don't be smart with me but that's
Carter
19:19
that's that's the the nature of the way that we change governments now will we change governments that way uh in the future i think that actually what cory is defining is the demographic shift that occurred in alberta makes it a far more volatile alberta yeah this is not we have
Carter
19:32
have said it and now we will be leftists forever i
Carter
19:36
don't think that we're fundamentally left i don't think we're fundamentally center i don't think we're fundamentally right i think are
SPEAKER_01
19:42
fundamentally big idea though are
Carter
19:43
are we fundamentally changed
Carter
19:44
we were fundamentally change and i don't i don't think that rachel notley won for any big ideas there were no big ideas put forward that people voted on there were big ideas but
Carter
19:55
but i don't think that that's why they marked their ballot. Corey will get mad at me. Corey's wrong. No,
Corey
20:00
listen, you're probably right that there wasn't a single big idea they voted Rachel Notley on, but they certainly had a sense of her philosophy and her politics, and they did vote for those. And I think people who believe otherwise are kidding themselves.
SPEAKER_01
20:12
Yeah. Okay, so let's get into more of a concrete example. First, let's just tie this in a little bit. We talked about the big ideas. You guys both said that this was not something new in a sense when we compare it to the longer lines of history. We had a little little bit of a debate on the new normal you've both kind of come out i'm thinking carter saying that rachel notley's not part of this um this blip in the radar you're saying it's a back and forth let's talk about the conservative leadership contest which is coming up in this country and the name that's being thrown around right now that could be that big change is the businessman kevin o'leary come on yeah i want to talk about this oh
Corey
20:48
come on indeed i talk about kevin we have to take a detour obviously into his million dollar like i will give a million dollars to the oil industry if rachel not least give
Corey
20:57
he will invest he will invest it if rachel
Corey
21:00
not least steps down as premier so two things one is the economist andrew leach posted what i think was the funniest chart i've ever seen in my life which is uh he said hey so if anyone was curious i've charted what the uh what the million
Corey
21:15
investment yeah what the futures of oil industry would be with and without his million dollar investment and it's two lines that are just exactly the same and
Corey
21:22
and uh because like what's a million dollars like this is i cannot understand for the life of me is this just the stereotypical torontonian who doesn't know and doesn't respect western canada and thinks we are still that small province we were in 1905 and thinks a million dollars will move the meter here like i don't think kevin o'leary is that dumb but this is a this is almost a 400 billion dollar economy that he's offering to he's generously offering to To invest a million dollars. I mean,
Carter
21:48
mean, that wasn't his objective. His objective was to get headlines. Of course it was. He
Corey
21:54
He got tons of headlines. We're
Carter
21:55
We're talking about him today. I was talking on Regina Radio about him yesterday. So there's no such
Corey
22:00
such thing as bad press? There's
Carter
22:01
There's no such thing as bad press. And now, when you couple it with Kevin O'Leary is thinking about the Conservative Party leadership, this makes perfect sense. If you're going to take the Conservative Party leadership attacking the new democratic premier of the most, quote-unquote, the most conservative province in Canada, quote-unquote, right? You know I don't agree with that and you don't agree with it. But
Carter
22:23
he does. He thinks that is a great way to get started. And I'll tell you something.
Carter
22:29
Him running for the leadership of the Conservative Party is almost perfect. perfect but
Carter
22:33
but your response though
SPEAKER_01
22:34
though cory is almost indicative of what our responses collectively were when we're like ha donald trump and now look what's happening so i'm trying to go back to our conversation today that don't be so dismissive is what i'm trying to say i think
Corey
22:46
think look if his plan was to get albertans he'll find some people who are like yeah get rid of notley god knows we've seen a lot of horrible things online uh you know as far as like saying we should plan a coup d'etat which is insane you know we love our province so much we're gonna like override
Corey
23:01
our government yeah uh but this is to me this is this is like the celebrityitis this is this is the exact same as leonardo di caprio not knowing what a chinook was so for
Corey
23:13
the people outside of alberta who may not have heard of this he was talking about filming the revenant and it was very cold one day and the very next day it was all of a sudden 10 degrees above zero and climate change climate change right not aware that that's a traditional weather pattern that That results from the mountains and like everybody in Alberta is used to Chinooks. We've been dealing with them since we moved to Alberta. But it's that. It shows a certain ignorance of our province. Like you really think this is how it works? A million dollars? Like what is the market cap of Suncor? Like $40 billion or something like that? That's one company. Yeah.
Corey
23:44
That's one company in Alberta. Like what's a million dollars going to do? It's not going to move the meter. It's the most laughable thing ever. So what I don't get is was he that out of touch with Alberta? was he that ignorant or or was he like or was he trying to be a clown and and if you're running for a leader do you want to be a clown well
SPEAKER_01
24:02
well what is funny is that he knew that she wasn't going to resign so he could have clearly thrown any number out there and he chose one million i just find it comical for that reason like
SPEAKER_01
24:11
like the austin powers
Corey
24:12
one million dollars right yeah
SPEAKER_01
24:14
yeah exactly but listen i i don't want to just brush him aside because i think this is interesting ties back back to what we're trying i don't know why you don't dragonstone
SPEAKER_01
24:23
well they upgraded them in the states so yeah take that you got kicked off of canadian broadcast television and they're now on network television in the u.s that's
SPEAKER_01
24:32
that's a step down to me
Carter
24:34
you hear me cnn
Corey
24:35
cnn i'm not listening canadian
Carter
24:36
canadian canadian business people yeah have long thought that they would just excel in politics peter pocklington you know ran for the leadership uh Ended
Corey
24:45
Ended up in jail after. Yeah.
Carter
24:46
Yeah. Interesting. This is not necessarily a new idea. And I know that business leaders in Alberta have been trying to tell government how to do their business. My favorite is the prominent businessman who took us aside when Alison Redford was running for leadership saying, what we need to do is get rid of income tax and replace it entirely with a consumption tax because that is the fairest way to tax the population. And it's like, yes, it's the fairest way to tax the population for those with incredibly high incomes who don't pay everything that they make on the consumption for what their goods and services are. For people who do pay everything that they make and more on goods and services, it's an unbelievably bad system.
Carter
25:28
A blended system like the one that we traditionally have across Canada is the best. But here
Carter
25:32
here we are. These business people think they have all the right ideas. And Kevin O'Leary jumping in. Ironically, I think that Jason Kenney's out.
Carter
25:40
I think Jason Kenney is not going to run for the Conservative Party leadership. But
Carter
25:43
But if Kevin O'Leary ran for the Conservative Party leadership, doesn't Jason Kenney become suddenly a moderate option that
Carter
25:49
that is more tenable than he would have been if he was just running against centrists from Ontario?
SPEAKER_01
25:56
This is what I kind of want to get to, right? Is what does his – and it doesn't have to be him. But do we know that O
Corey
26:01
O'Leary would even be an extreme candidate? Like, why would we think that?
Corey
26:05
Like, I'm not, I mean, I think he's got bombast, but he's not like he's going to, is he talking about closing the borders to Muslims? Is he talking about eliminating the income tax?
Carter
26:13
tax? Well, no, he'll be extreme for a Canadian side, not extreme compared to Trump.
SPEAKER_01
26:18
Yeah, but he would be, in classical definition, considered a fringe candidate for the leadership. I
SPEAKER_01
26:22
I reject that. You
Carter
26:25
just like to argue. No,
Corey
26:26
No, I don't see anything that he said that from a policy standpoint would be fringe.
Carter
26:30
John, I'm going to Google it right now,
Corey
26:33
now, baby. Yeah, you're going to find something. Listen, his policy of buying out premiers is fringe. Yeah,
Corey
26:40
don't see anything fringe about Kevin O'Leary except what I've been ranting
Corey
26:42
for the last eight minutes. Well, come on. You've got to differentiate between his policy
SPEAKER_01
26:47
policy and his. I do, I do. And I don't want to get us into the weeds here because I want to just talk about certainly the novelty of him thinking of running. But if that, because of what we were talking about today, should be given more credence than we would have two, three, five years ago. That's simply the question.
Corey
27:03
I don't know. The conservatives elect their leader in a very different way than the Americans nominate their presidential candidates. The process
SPEAKER_01
27:09
process is one hurdle.
Corey
27:11
hurdle. The process is one, right? Every riding gets X number of points and they move forward. Carter has a big smile on his face. He's clearly found a Kevin O
Carter
27:19
O'Leary. No word of a lie, there is a page at Brainy Quote of Kevin O'Leary quotes. Oh,
Carter
27:26
My favorite so far, money equals freedom.
SPEAKER_01
27:29
Pretty good. I like that.
Carter
27:32
There's only one side with me. You get the right side. You get the correct version of the facts. Sounds like something you would say. I go to bed richer than when I woke up. That is the pursuit of wealth is a wonderful thing. But the thing is you have to be honest about it. You have to tell the truth.
Carter
27:46
Look at that. Hey, he's being honest. He only cares about money. money
Carter
27:49
money money money he's not gonna be a fringe candidate he's not look
Corey
27:55
those are the kind of things business people say politician kevin o'leary if such a thing comes to fruition i don't think he's going to be saying that on the stump one final question
SPEAKER_01
28:04
question on this because i feel like this has gone off the rails carter reading
SPEAKER_01
28:07
brady quotes last thing if you are if you are leading a a campaign for the any conservative candidate right now that is not kevin o'leary let's say an institutional establishment candidate.
SPEAKER_01
28:18
How do you factor in, and I know I've asked this as a hypothetical before to you, Corey, so I'll go to you, Carter. How do you factor in that there could be a fringe-like candidate like Kevin O'Leary or a composite of Kevin O'Leary, knowing what we've talked about today, about the pendulum, about the big changes? How do you account for that as a strategist?
Carter
28:37
Well, I'd love to run against someone like that because it gives you something to put put out as the as the far you know as the worst possible scenario right i think that um one of the challenges that has happened with trump is that no one has figured out how to run and put him out as the worst case scenario yeah they're all trying to be little mini versions of him sometimes because he's able to get that media he's able to get uh you know his name right in every headline uh throughout and and i think that that has to be viewed as a negative kevin o'leary theory um and his ideas and his media savvy uh create an interesting challenge for a candidate ultimately media is good right
Carter
29:11
right when you look at someone like um like
Carter
29:13
like when you look at the fringe or you know the parties that aren't succeeding right
Carter
29:17
right in in politics um like the green party the green party's never figured out how to get into the headlines right the way that they get into the headlines is negative stuff like uh you
Carter
29:27
you know all of a sudden elizabeth may is not a big fan of wi-fi right like right
Carter
29:31
right these that's not gonna that's not going to succeed you have to be in the media every single day and o'leary and those types can be again you know we'll get themselves into the media what you need to be is the counterpoint to that crazy you need to be the one that they come to the one that they come to to counterpoint it
SPEAKER_01
29:49
counterpoint to the crazy easier said than done or do you want to say something completely different no no no no no i mean no
SPEAKER_01
29:54
no is it no so
Corey
29:55
so okay first of all who else is in the race are they more or less extreme than you because if they are less extreme than you or
Corey
30:02
or but you are more extreme you are more extreme than them but you are less extreme than the o'leary candidate then you are the compromise you're the middle no you're ted cruz right who thought ted cruz was a moderate ever no right but now relative to trump he's looking like well i don't want bush and i don't want trump yeah
Corey
30:18
i guess i can settle for cruz in the middle that's that's where cruz's success is coming from the the united states how
Carter
30:23
how are we not talking about him almost being disqualified yeah
Corey
30:26
yeah we gotta get we gotta get to that that's so much fun yeah we will um so
Corey
30:30
so that that is an option that's available sure uh you can do the swing the other way but the problem is you've got to swing you can't be the moderate in that example you've got to find a different type of extreme because the problem is if you're just the moderate you're the jeb bush and then you know what all you've done is you've set yourself up to be a piñata for the o'learies of the race saying traditional politician giving giving us the same old answers that have failed us a thousand times before. So you have two options, and neither are being the moderate, in my opinion. You can pick a different brand of crazy, or you can be somewhere between crazy and moderate.
SPEAKER_01
31:03
We'll leave that segment there, pick a different brand of crazy. I'm going to take that as the key takeaway. Okay, our next segment, a health check on the red shirts. Let's look at how our good friends, the liberals, as in the new federal government, is doing. Carter, overall, what is your assessment? I've got no real scale or anything here because you never follow my direction. So how are they doing in your mind?
Carter
31:26
think they're doing just fine.
Carter
31:27
There's a group of people who are ticked off because they're breaking election promises. There's a group of people who are ticked off because they're keeping their election promises. That seems about right. You know, you come in, you start to govern. Reality starts to dictate. And I don't think that they've lost tremendous ground. I don't think anybody cares, frankly, at this particular moment. They haven't generated a tremendous amount of anger from any group.
SPEAKER_01
31:53
Corey, the Saudi arms deal, Bill Blair leading the marijuana sort of file. Any of these sticking points that the opposition could hit on for the new government? Well,
Corey
32:03
Well, let me build a bridge from the last topic. Sure. I
Corey
32:05
I think that to a certain extent, Trudeau did position himself as the more dramatic change candidate. He went aggressively for a big list of big ideas, real change. Real
Corey
32:15
baby. Full of all sorts of things from the election system to, you
Corey
32:19
you know, the way we deliver our mail, which he's sort of hedged on now. I
Carter
32:24
I mean, there's a
Corey
32:24
a lot of promises that are being broken as a result of what Stephen was just talking about, right? You get into government and government in its own right is a moderating influence. The problem these extreme candidates are going to have, and it's almost unfair to put Trudeau in the same camp as the Sanders or the Trumps of the world. But if
Corey
32:42
if you are taking those positions, you find that they are actually very difficult to implement. Look at the government in Greece who said, like, no, we're just going to throw out the deal, renegotiate with the EU. Yeah. How
Corey
32:51
How well did that work, right? Yeah. Like there is – these extreme positions set
Corey
32:58
set yourself up for future failures a lot of the time. And I do kind of think that the liberals are getting a passing grade from me right now because they're just being what I think I expected the liberals to be and what many people expected liberals to be, which is a moderate government who will do some things and not other things as the liberals always do. It's always been the big knock against them from the NDP, right? Govern from the right, you know, campaign from the left. Yeah.
Corey
33:23
there's got to be disappointed people out there. You
Corey
33:26
You know, the list of promises that have been broken after only a couple of months is pretty big.
Corey
33:33
And if the election reforms fail,
Corey
33:36
if we have a couple more of these big things just go by the wayside, I'm specifically thinking about like Canada Post and the mailbox transitions and some of those other things.
Corey
33:45
What are these people going to do? Like, will that coalition be for them next time if they've just
Corey
33:51
just like, what do you promise next time as the liberals? rules i guess you go back and you say things turned out okay they weren't what we promised but they were okay but
Carter
34:01
yeah i mean but campaigns
Carter
34:06
you know so you come in you can't you campaign the way you need to campaign you i
Carter
34:11
i don't believe that they they lied i don't believe that they said things that they knew they couldn't do i
Carter
34:15
i think they honestly wanted to do these things but now you get in and
Carter
34:18
and you You look at things and you say, holy
Carter
34:20
holy crow, if we were to undo
Carter
34:22
undo all this stuff, it's going to cost us a fortune. It actually makes sense to change the
Carter
34:27
the postal delivery system because no one gets mail, right?
Carter
34:32
It turns out that's true. So
Corey
34:33
So something I glossed over, Syriza, the government in Greece, couldn't do anything, went back to the polls, was reelected. So
Corey
34:41
not pretend that breaking a promise always
SPEAKER_01
34:43
always destroys you. So back to my original question, Corey. You're saying lukewarm is kind of your passing grade. Like a C. A C right now. Now, is that as someone who's a strategist? What hat are you putting on when you give that grade? I just want to kind of make sure we're clear on that. Yeah,
Corey
34:57
Yeah, I think if I'm a strategist, it's – yeah,
Corey
35:01
yeah, I would say probably a C. Like the problem is I don't see anything that I'm looking at right now and saying like that will be useful in the future, but I am seeing things where I'm like that could be damaging in the future. So
SPEAKER_01
35:10
So let's talk about that very quickly. Carter, do you see anything that could be damaging? I brought up two earlier on with the Saudi arms deal or Bill Blair leading marijuana. The
Carter
35:17
The Saudi arms deal. By the time they get to an actual election, it's
Carter
35:21
it's going to be completely forgotten.
Carter
35:22
Bill Blair, big deal. If they bring in marijuana legalization, those who want it will be – will totally forget that it's Bill Blair that brought it to them.
Corey
35:29
them. They'll also totally forget to vote.
Carter
35:34
but you know i just don't think that this is uh you
Carter
35:38
you know cory's looking at it from a strategist point of view yeah and i think that yes they are giving fodder to their opposition i'm looking at it kind of from the voters point of view i
Carter
35:46
don't think that there's a lot of stuff here that the liberal voter is going away from like
Carter
35:50
like i think the liberal voter right now is just so happy to see photo ops of justin trudeau that they're just buying into that that
SPEAKER_01
35:58
still going going on for them oh
Corey
35:59
all the polls are still
Corey
36:00
showing it he's he's riding strong okay
SPEAKER_01
36:01
okay so on this concept of a health check if there's one shot in the arm that you could give them what would it be would it be the
SPEAKER_01
36:09
the ability to be teflon more competent rapid response i mean those are just some examples if you could give them a shot in the arm right now what would it be core you've given them a a c grade both i'm assuming as a strategist and potentially as a voter as well um but if
SPEAKER_01
36:24
if there's a shot
Corey
36:24
shot in the arm what do you give them oh i think it's iron i think they need They need to fortify their spine and push forward with some of these things that they've backed away from. I
SPEAKER_01
36:31
I don't know if that's medically true that iron can fortify your spine, but let's just assume it is. My
Corey
36:36
My dad's a doctor, okay? Yeah,
Carter
36:37
Yeah, and he's passed on no knowledge to his son.
Carter
36:41
Mercifully. Let me jump in here and just say that the
Carter
36:45
thing that I think will ultimately hurt the liberals has nothing to do with what their promises are, but instead just the economy.
Carter
36:50
If the economy continues to go down and people are now starting to get scared of the economy. I mean, I think in Alberta, we've been scared for over a year. But
Carter
36:58
But I think the rest of the country, some of them are looking at this as an opportunity. Some of them are wondering if that opportunity is going to be realized. And some of them are looking at it as a threat.
Carter
37:06
If you start to see the economy become a major discussion point, it
Carter
37:09
it will be the defining moment. So what they need, if they're going to succeed as a government, economic rebound in the next 18 months. Economic
Carter
37:17
rebound. Well, they can't
Corey
37:18
can't do that. No,
Corey
37:19
that's out of their control. They're just
Corey
37:22
They need a cash injection.
SPEAKER_01
37:24
They'll take credit. cash injection we'll leave it there on that let's move it on to our final segment are over under a lightning round are you
Carter
37:30
you guys ready oh so ready okay
SPEAKER_01
37:32
okay scale of one to ten one being ad doesn't matter ten being this is totally ridiculously stupid the alberta liberals delayed their leadership contest potentially out of step with their constitution wow oh
SPEAKER_01
37:46
so ridiculous i love the scale
Carter
37:47
you gave us yeah what
SPEAKER_01
37:48
what else do you do i mean i maybe fill us in on some context for some of our uh listeners outside of alberta yeah because even most of them inside of
Corey
37:57
of alberta it's not even relevant to albertans but like let's just give some context here look the the liberal party leader stepped down last year uh just before the provincial election so they brought in david swan the former leader as the interim leader and he's been the interim leader for a year and under the alberta liberal constitution the board when the leader steps down either appoints an interim term leader for a period not to exceed a year. And in that period of time, the leadership contest must take place. It's not like you must call it within the year. It has to be done within the year.
Corey
38:30
Or they call the race immediately. So they chose the interim leader route. It's now been a year. And the board of directors just decided, well,
Corey
38:37
well, let's give it another year. That's that's probably ultra viris. Like they don't have the authority to do that. If they wanted to do that, what they were supposed to do is call a special meeting and get 75% of the membership to endorse such a policy but
Corey
38:48
but the liberals are in such a weakened state right now that they're
Corey
38:52
they're just ignoring the rules because there are no consequences because somebody has to complain about the rules being violated in order for like there to be any remedy whatsoever and
Corey
39:01
and nobody cares nobody which is why of course they delayed the leadership in the first place they couldn't get any interest in their contest so like look i tend to believe that the rules are there to protect us and um when you You violate the rules. You create a sense of lawlessness. And if you're a candidate and
Corey
39:19
and you're thinking about running, why would you do that now when you know the board will just capriciously act however they want? What if you're not the board's preferred candidate? You're
Corey
39:26
You're just going to stay out of that contest because the board has proven they will ignore the rules. They'll put their thumb on the scale. They'll do whatever they want.
Corey
39:32
That's a big problem for them. They are setting up challenges for their future leader because they also have the problem that say that person wins and say it's a contest with two or more people and say the person who lost challenges in court. whether or not this contest was even lawful because of course under the bylaws which are filed with corporate registries and must be followed they are the law right you are violating the society's act if you break it the penalties are minor but it exists yeah
Corey
40:00
yeah then they'll just undo it or potentially rerun the contest or they'll have to get the general meeting together that special general meeting and endorse it retroactively with 75 otherwise they're just creating problems for themselves in the future you're
Carter
40:11
you're only creating problems if you're viable And they're
Carter
40:13
they're not viable. And
Carter
40:14
And this is the point of why they put off their leadership. If there was a leadership and
Carter
40:21
somebody wanted it, they
Carter
40:22
they would have stood up and said, I want this leadership. And the board would have said, huh,
Carter
40:27
huh, we've got a potential leader here.
Carter
40:29
No one who is legitimate stood up and put their hands in the air. Well,
Corey
40:32
Well, apparently three candidates have put their hands up.
Corey
40:37
I wonder how those three candidates are feeling. But I also don't really care because they also don't have the right to violate the Constitution. It's like it's
Corey
40:44
it's not just because they're OK with it. It's OK. We
Carter
40:48
It's always interesting to watch the death of a political party because
Carter
40:51
because people who are there, people who are still standing on that political party's grave, don't necessarily see that they're dead. So there's always a resurrection. they are the ultimate religious believers their party will resurrect itself and become viable i
Corey
41:05
i don't want to i know this is lightning round and this is decidedly this
Carter
41:08
this is our best lightning
Corey
41:10
ever i feel like it's but it's yeah i have to say put on your thought experiment cap for a minute imagine a totally different scenario imagine that uh the liberals had won 40
Corey
41:20
40 seats in this election imagine they were government but they got it with an interim leader that nobody Nobody elected, right?
Corey
41:26
right? And imagine the board just decided we're not going to have a leadership contest anymore. Would
Corey
41:31
Would that be considered appropriate in any way, shape, or form? No.
Corey
41:34
Why is it appropriate now?
Carter
41:36
But nobody cares because they didn't win 40 seats. They didn't win. They
SPEAKER_01
41:41
They won one. I'm not even going to ask you for numbers. Let's move it on. We're moving on. How much does this hurt Ted Cruz? We wanted to talk about this. So how much do the undisclosed bank loans on a scale of 1 to 10 hurt Ted Cruz, 10 being disastrous? Asterisk. It becomes a 10 if he says that's how we do
Corey
41:56
do it in Canada. I don't understand the
Corey
42:00
It's probably a 7 right now. It's bad, but you know what? It's the timing that makes it worse. And my hat off to Ted Cruz's opponents. Between the Canadian citizenship stuff and the bank loans coming out, this is weeks to Iowa. Wow. And
SPEAKER_01
42:15
And they're going after Teddy.
Corey
42:16
They held their ammo. They kept their powder dry. And that, oh. I am really amazed that they managed to pull this off. Carter, 1 to 10. Ben, give me a number before
Carter
42:24
before you rant. It's probably a seven. The bigger issue, I think, is the Canadian citizen. You think that's bigger, eh? I
Corey
42:33
that's going to play. Well, you saw the legal scholar in the Washington Post who
Corey
42:37
said, look, I know everybody seems to think it's actually okay, but there's nothing in the case law that suggests this is okay.
Corey
42:46
Which is going to be amazing. Even that cloud over him, say that cost him five points. That's
Carter
42:50
That's the ballgame, kids. That's the ballgame. Listen,
SPEAKER_01
42:52
Listen, if he needs a place to run, conservative leadership, side by side with Kevin O'Leary. Oh,
SPEAKER_01
42:58
Wow. I'd pay to see that. You know what? That would have been great. On strict political terms, on strict political terms, how did Christy Clark handle Kinder Morgan this past week on a 1 to 10? Well,
Carter
43:08
Well, let me just jump in and say that opposing the Kinder Morgan pipeline arguably cost Adrian Dix the last election. And now Christy Clark has taken the exact same position. I
Carter
43:22
I think that there would be a opportunity for the NDP to go to the lunchbox
Carter
43:27
lunchbox-carrying conservative and the lunchbox-carrying New Democrat and to try and cobble together. And try to build that coalition.
Carter
43:36
People totally underestimate the blue-orange shift. They forget that the working people shift between these two positions very easily. And that, I think, will be available. Where is Christy Clark's jobs plan? It was all held up in LNG. And
Carter
43:55
And where is it? She hasn't done sweet fuck all for the people of British Columbia in terms of economic development. Are you running
Corey
44:01
running for BC Premier?
Carter
44:03
Oh, man, I should.
Carter
44:05
Do you have to live there?
Corey
44:06
Yeah, I think so.
Carter
44:07
Oh, okay. That might be a problem. Might be
Corey
44:08
be a problem. But,
Carter
44:08
But, I mean, this election has already played itself out, and politically it was untenable. Now, there's
Carter
44:15
there's a lot more opposition to Kinder Morgan today than there was in the 2013 election. Corey,
SPEAKER_01
44:22
disastrous. This is the most overwrought lightning round, by the way. One to ten.
SPEAKER_01
44:27
Christy Clark, on strict political terms, her reaction to Kinder Morgan. It's
Corey
44:33
the fact of the matter is Kinder Morgan, for a long time, for people who have been doing polling on this matter, and i'm one of them kinder
Corey
44:39
kinder morgan is a less popular pipeline than northern gateway and the reason is it goes through your backyard yeah
Carter
44:45
yeah it's through your house yeah
Corey
44:46
yeah and i think people don't i think politicians figure that out very late in the game frankly yeah but they are beginning to figure it out edmonton
SPEAKER_01
44:54
edmonton right now has a 27 plus person by election to replace amrjeet sohi oh my god okay as a political strategist give me your one sentence strategy to try to break out of the field in a 27 person race purple science that's what similar
Carter
45:14
cognitive dissonance i would go with yes
SPEAKER_01
45:16
yes or no does kevin o'leary run for the conservative leisure ship yes
Carter
45:19
yes yes okay wow i
SPEAKER_01
45:22
i was expecting both of you to be like this was a strict academic exercise fuck you zane but he
SPEAKER_01
45:26
yes i think no okay why he's
Carter
45:28
he's wrong again february
SPEAKER_01
45:29
february 2nd you wake up and you read the newspaper who has won the democratic contest in iowa carter clinton
Corey
45:37
Bernie Sanders, no question. It's a caucus and his enthusiasm gap over Clinton is massive.
SPEAKER_01
45:42
That's where we'll leave it. Episode 563 of The Strategist. My name is Zane Velji. With me, as always, Corey Hogan, Stephen Carter, and we'll see you next time.