Episode 555: Meanwhile, in Alberta

Zain 0:03

This is the strategists episode 555. My name is Zain Velji with me as always Stephen Carter, Corey Hogan. Guys, how are you?

Carter 0:10

Budget day. Yeah, we're very budget day. Budget day. This is budget

Corey 0:15

budget day in Alberta, we should say. Yes, it is

Corey 0:17

budget day in Alberta. Did you think

Corey 0:18

think we'd make it this far? No. 555 episodes. That's

Carter 0:22

That's a lot. It's a nice, you know, like round numbers. It's like all over the year. It's not a round number. I don't think

Zain 0:26

think you know what a

Carter 0:27

It's a nice number.

Zain 0:32

you a while to get there. And you

Zain 0:33

want to talk about the budget. We

Carter 0:34

We didn't celebrate this on episode 444, and I think we should have. We should have.

Corey 0:39

Well, I think we were worried about jinxing it after 333. Well,

Carter 0:43

Well, that was a bad one. Oh, man. The

Corey 0:45

The litigation episode, people.

Zain 0:49

All live in a courtroom. Very interesting. Go back, listen to it if you haven't. It's riveting stuff.

Zain 0:55

But today in Alberta, we're back to talking about provincial politics. Are you guys excited about this? Clearly, I think I know the answer to that. You're clearly excited.

Carter 1:02

I'm actually really like overexcited.

Corey 1:05

Well, yeah, go ahead, Corey. Yeah, Alberta gives us a great case study too. We're a province in flux right now and change. We're a province

Corey 1:12

province known for its conservative politics who have elected a social democratic government. Yes.

Zain 1:17

People may have forgotten that we have a new government here. The NDP are now governing in Alberta. murder yeah i still

Carter 1:22

still feel still feels forgotten by the twitter fanatics no

Carter 1:26

the twitter fanatics have lost their flipping minds today it's pretty fun to watch yeah

Zain 1:30

yeah they were surprised by what an ndp government posed in their budget but let's let's chat about that let's get into it our first segment no you didn't get it because it's got the word dead yeah see that was just channeling the twitterati right there let's

Zain 1:44

let's let's talk about this budget but before we get there steven carter You were chief of staff to a certain premier, unnamed premier. She who must not be named. Yeah, she who must not be named. Oh, no, I think we gave it away.

Zain 1:58

This is true. Technically. Yeah, and you weren't in Edmonton for the budget today, so we'll figure, pretty easy to figure out which one. Nonetheless,

Zain 2:07

Nonetheless, tell us what goes into making a budget and why should we frankly care? I mean, even myself, quite interested in politics, found it quite difficult, unlike the two of you, to get very excited today. Is this the government's strategic plan going forward, number one? But number two, why should we be excited today?

Carter 2:25

Well, legislation starts off with all these good intentions and all these types of things. But legislation is only brought to life by the people who do it.

Carter 2:33

So budgets pay for the people. People don't generally do things for free for government. government so what is in the budget is actually what is going to happen so you can actually see from the budget how much priority you're putting onto something right and this you know so are we increasing health care even though we pass a bill about this bill about human services or a bill about child protection all those bills need to be funded and they are all funded from one document and that's what makes budgets so much fun cory

Corey 3:03

cory why does this matter what he's exactly right i I mean, money is what really drives politics. This is the money bill. Now, there may be supplementary bills to come, but this does tell us at least what the plan is for the next year, where the spending priorities are. I think we can already expect a few things that will change as far as royalties and environment just based on Joe Cici, the finance minister's comments today. But this tells us a lot about the government, its approach to governing, and what the hell the next 12 months, 24 months, 36 months and beyond are going to be like. Carter,

Zain 3:35

Carter, I want to leverage your inside experience working on putting a budget together. What goes into it? I mean, we know there's many stakeholders internally and externally, but what fundamentally goes into building this budget on the inside? side well

Carter 3:49

well each department head uh so each minister and each deputy minister uh brings to the brings

Carter 3:55

brings to the budgeting process what they want right right so they they will likely have been given some marching orders early right from uh from the deputy minister of executive council okay

Carter 4:04

uh or and the premier right so you'll be given uh so the deputy minister of executive executive council gives it to the deputy ministers the premier to her minister right um so you're going to get a two percent increase you're going to have to hold the line right

Carter 4:18

right general parameters on what you're going to need to do in the bigger picture correct and then the process becomes um amalgamating

Carter 4:26

amalgamating all those documents and creating a single working document and that's when things get interesting right that's

Carter 4:32

that's when you start to go through line by line with the political staff with the political electeds right

Carter 4:38

staffers and the deputy ministers and assistant deputy ministers so you'll have have a bit of time with each department where you're able to ask them all different questions okay well tell me a little bit about this line item what you know or last year i asked you to take a little bit out of this and now this year you've bumped it up

Carter 4:54

or last week i asked you to take something out of this and this week you've bumped it up so you go through with the with each of the administrative staff all those details and it is a fascinating process because there's literally, I mean, the page that we got online was

Carter 5:10

was 100 pages before you got to the appendices. Right. Right.

Carter 5:14

The document that you get from the civil services, you're going through the budget, is a binder. Right. And that binder changes every two or three days. It's

Zain 5:22

It's phenomenal. So tell me, as chief of staff, what was your responsibility? I'm very curious about this, because I want to put people in that place today. What was Brian Topper, whoever's leading your provincial government wherever you're leading from what does he or she do at that moment i'm assuming a few probing questions means multi millions and billions of dollars of changes effectively that you can order on behalf of the government is that not

Carter 5:44

not true well you can't order anything okay as the chief of staff i mean i think that uh we can give direction so

Zain 5:50

so we gave a

Carter 5:51

a lot of direction i and but there's are

Zain 5:53

are you putting direction in air quotes am i reading something into that no okay okay you know the premier has said you

Carter 5:58

premier doesn't attend every meeting okay the premier has premier

Carter 6:01

premier things to do right so i as chief would attend or a minister would attend uh their meetings so uh in general it was my job to attend all the meetings for the budget process that's not necessarily done by the chief of staff all the time uh in different governments it's been the deputy chief of staff or it's been the chief of staff to finance

Carter 6:19

finance it depends it really depends on what structure you're going to put now in our government we had a very small team and

Carter 6:25

i was tasked with with attending most of the meetings on the budget and

Carter 6:29

and it was uh

Carter 6:30

uh just a constant fight because even within your own team i remember having a fight with stephen shapiro who

Carter 6:35

who was a deputy or a deputy chief of staff to me right

Carter 6:38

and i wanted to take out the subsidy that we had for horse racing now

Carter 6:42

now the subsidy for horse racing is 20 million dollars right

Zain 6:45

right right i had no idea there was a subsidy yeah well you welcome to hell

Carter 6:49

um because you You can't find it on the budget.

Carter 6:52

Okay. You have to kind of know that it's there and where it's buried in a line item. And it was there and we wanted to take it out. It was $20 million. I wanted to take it out and Stephen wouldn't let me pull it out. He's deputy chief of staff. So we have these enormous fights about how important the

Carter 7:07

the horse racing industry is to rural Alberta.

Carter 7:11

And I'm like, I

Carter 7:12

I don't agree. But at the end of the day, we left it in. Same

Carter 7:14

Same way that we left in the beer subsidy. Right.

Carter 7:16

Right. Right. These are little detail-y things that are in the budget that

Zain 7:22

people don't know exist. Corey, what does it take to balance – and I'm sure every government is different. But in your mind, what does it take as a government in terms of political and policy will to balance the pragmatism with the policy platform and the pragmatism with what you promised the electorate? Well, I think what you're driving

Corey 7:39

driving at ultimately is that the budget is not just a budget. It's a communications document about the government's intent. And

Carter 7:45

And your priorities and everything, your strategic plan

Corey 7:48

plan and path going forward. You could take the exact same budget document the NDP had today and write an entirely different front on it and give it an entirely different feel. The

Corey 7:56

The emphasis they provided was as much one of optics as it was of reality. And so one of the, I don't know if fun's the right word, but one of the fun things about going through these budgets

Carter 8:06

budgets from the other

Corey 8:06

other side. so keep in mind steven was government and with staff i was party and i was i was essentially you know party communications and strategy right

Corey 8:17

is going through and being like okay they said that now what didn't they say so in

Corey 8:21

in general i'm going to be very praiseworthy of this budget so i'm going to pick on the ndp for one second about the

Corey 8:27

when they were talking about health care and the increases in health care first of all they made very clear they need to get health care spending under control which

Corey 8:33

which by the way everybody everybody

Corey 8:36

forever yeah right and how it's averaged six percent but next year it would be four percent and the year after that it would be a two percent or three percent increase and then after that two percent going forward well didn't

Corey 8:46

didn't mention this year which is only two percent and

Corey 8:50

also took a bit of liberty with the rounding there like 3.6 became four percent you know things like that you start looking for those things particularly when you're in opposition and saying like okay they're trying trying to send a message but what are they actually doing behind the scenes and so that's what i i mean if that was the pcs trying to be a little more hard-nosed or the wild rose they probably would have said those exact same figures in a very different way right right yeah

Carter 9:12

yeah carter go ahead well i mean i don't want to jump to the end so i'm going to come back to

Zain 9:16

to it well i actually wanted to pick up on this because before we get into the actual budget how much did you value this as being a communication document when you put it out there carter when in your time like was it was it framed Obviously, the numbers took a while, but what was the framing like behind the scenes?

Carter 9:31

Well, compared to the throne speech. So the

Carter 9:33

speech is the document that's supposed to frame your entire legislative session. This is going to be our government moving forward. That

Carter 9:41

That was essentially a pamphlet compared to what we had to do with the budget. The

Carter 9:47

budget is the primary communications piece. It is far more scrutinized by the actual people who are doing the work. I mean, sure, you've got the media, you've got the general population. Most of those groups aren't necessarily going to dig into the budget. I'll tell you who's going to dig into the budget.

Carter 10:01

Every single department is going to have their people digging into the budget, trying to figure out their

Carter 10:06

their programs, the things

Carter 10:08

things that they're working

Zain 10:08

working on, and how

Carter 10:09

how much has been cut or how much has been added so that they know what the priorities are for this particular government.

Zain 10:15

Right. Okay, so let's get into it. Corey, top

Zain 10:17

top of mind, what excites you? You've already tipped your hand as to what you're going to do in terms of, or say in in a certain sense, thematically. But why does that excite you? Why are you going to be praiseworthy of this budget? Lay it on us.

Corey 10:28

Well, there was basically one task for this budget, in my opinion, and that was to kick the ball down the field and not wreck the government on the first major act, right? This could not be Bob Ray's budget. And on that metric, which I believe is the only metric that they should have been measuring themselves against, they hit it. They nailed it. In fact, there was one thing in particular where the the new democrats said we

Corey 10:51

we were uh we are going to

Corey 10:54

hold debt to 15 of gdp right essentially creating a debt ceiling now generally

Corey 10:59

think that ceilings are a pretty stupid idea and i can't help but note the wild rose was calling for one yesterday but that obviously took the wild rose off guard because in their initial communications post budget they started saying hey we need a debt ceiling yeah

Corey 11:11

now they may ultimately interpret that differently but i thought that the new democrats obviously preempted that concern by by saying like, look, no matter what you

Carter 11:17

you think about this,

Corey 11:18

this, we've tethered this to half of what the provincial average currently is. We didn't increase income taxes. We took a very measured approach to things. And I loved what they did with communications around the revenue shortfall. So they highlighted the revenue shortfall at $6.1 billion. And then almost as an afterthought, they went, oh, by the way, the deficit will be $6.1 billion. So there but for the volatility of our oil revenue, you, this would be a balanced budget. I thought that was really clever.

Zain 11:47

You thought that math was smart. I want to pick up on something that you mentioned earlier, which was the goal of this budget. Carter, do you agree that the goal of this budget was not to ultimately screw themselves as prior NDP governments, Corey alluded to the one of Bob Ray, has done? Or do you think this was supposed to be, in your mind, a more ambitious budget than that?

Carter 12:07

Well, I mean, first

Carter 12:08

first of all, I think those are the same points. It is a very ambitious goal to not screw yourself in your first budget because your first budget

Carter 12:18

is the only one you get to throw away. You can increase taxes. All you want in your first budget is to reduce them in your fourth one.

Carter 12:25

That's the basis of politics. That is a

Zain 12:28

a good point. If you want

Carter 12:29

want to decrease spending, you decrease spending in your first budget. You increase spending in your fourth budget. You make yourself balanced by the end. There's all kinds of different things that we do. But our first budget, someone's keeping score. I mean, no one remembers the deficits that the PCs had seven years in a row.

Carter 12:49

No one remembers those deficits. This one, you know, like this

Carter 12:53

this is the first one. And frankly, we won't remember it when we come to the election again. So

Carter 12:57

So I think that, you

Carter 12:59

you know, they didn't have to worry necessarily about screwing themselves, but they did have to worry about what their future looks like. And for me, this budget reads like a pc an old pc budget well there is nothing different except the number in

Carter 13:14

in terms of the deficit they increase spending for health care they increase spending for education they increase spending for advanced education they increase spending for human

Carter 13:21

human services you know who that sounds like allison

Corey 13:25

well i wouldn't go so far as to call it a pc but it's

Carter 13:27

it's a pc budget yeah

Corey 13:27

yeah lay it on me quick go ahead but

Corey 13:29

but there's no question they took a balanced approach to not concern albertans so you know spending didn't go off the hook i already mentioned healthcare spending was was reduced in its projections for it not reduced i should say but its increases were reduced and they also they also however looked at revenue measures that the pcs perhaps would not have and that's not just with budget 2015 you've got to keep in mind it's budget 2015 inclusive

Corey 13:55

inclusive of mini budget 2015 and that's where most of the major changes

Carter 13:59

changes were The mini-budget was where they changed the revenue.

Carter 14:02

Yeah. Right? But I expected additional revenue changes today. Well,

Corey 14:06

Well, they made a few.

Carter 14:07

made a few that –

Corey 14:07

– Tinkers. Well, syntaxes. Syntaxes.

Carter 14:10

Syntaxes. So to your point, that

Corey 14:11

that would be a classic PC chestnut. Classic

Corey 14:14

Yeah, but they also increased the premium on insurance, and they also increased – Ooh.

Zain 14:20

on. But what were you looking

Corey 14:21

looking for, Carter? Wow. Yeah,

Zain 14:23

Carter, realistically – I wanted to – You agree.

Corey 14:25

agree. So I want

Zain 14:26

want to make sure – Hold on, hold on, hold on. I want to make sure our listeners are clear. Clear. So you agree with Corey on the initial goal of this budget. Is that correct? I want to make sure that's on the record. Yeah. I mean, I think we do. Setting the total course for the government. For the government. Now, what were you expecting in terms of revenue that you didn't see?

Carter 14:41

I expected to see another personal income tax hike. I expected another tier to be added to the personal income tax levels. You

Zain 14:47

You expected, but would you have also praised that as good policy if they had done it today?

Zain 14:54

I just want to make sure we got you fully on the record. No,

Carter 14:56

No, I mean, good policy.

Carter 14:58

policy. I mean, alberta has a significant revenue problem we do not bring in nearly enough taxes yes wild rose we spend too much no we don't shut up okay

Carter 15:10

okay so we don't we we have a revenue problem and let's let's put things in perspective we spend 49 billion dollars and

Carter 15:17

we bring in 22 billion dollars in taxation revenue okay

Carter 15:24

okay so let's everybody hates it when you equate the household income. So let's not do that. Let's do it as a corporation.

Carter 15:31

Okay. Corporations can invest a lot in one year and start to see returns later, right? Like they don't have to make money in the first year, but

Carter 15:38

but you're not investing in anything. You're actually taking your profits and completely shooting them down. And your profits are so volatile with your oil and gas revenue. We're not investing in driving more oil and gas revenue. We're just riding

Carter 15:53

riding that wave. And that that wave's almost gone. So

Carter 15:56

So $22 billion in taxation revenue. What's the difference between us and British Columbia?

Carter 16:02

About $10 billion in taxation revenue. What's that difference? PST. What's the difference between us and Saskatchewan? PST. All across the country, everybody else has got a provincial sales tax, not us. Now, is

Carter 16:15

is it smart policy to not have a provincial sales tax? Actually, it's really bad policy, but it's even worse politics to bring one in.

Zain 16:23

Yeah. Okay, right. So I wasn't

Carter 16:24

wasn't expecting them to bring in a PST. But if you're not going to have a PST, then you need a health care premium. You

Carter 16:30

You need higher personal income tax rates.

Carter 16:32

We have to pay the taxes for the services that we want to receive. Okay.

Corey 16:36

Corey, go ahead. And this is part of why I like the NDP budget. I've said this before. They can't go too hard too fast. They had to go calm. But

Corey 16:44

But they wrote themselves some nice escape hatches in there about how they may have to take action in the future based on the price of oil, whether or not it actually hits the target. Their

Corey 16:53

And by the way, their projections, although they've said –

Corey 16:57

– They're very aggressive. So they've gone out and they've said – I

Corey 17:00

I think it was like $60 WTI or something like that. Yeah, I think one year to this point, they think it's going to be at $65. Yeah,

Corey 17:07

and that's fine because if you look at all of the projections out there by the banks, they can justifiably say that's in the band. But

Zain 17:14

the futures market sure doesn't agree with that. No, there's about 25% difference. Yeah,

Corey 17:19

futures market has it about $50. And I've never really understood why the government doesn't rely more on the futures market besides the fact it makes them feel a bit better. Now, I understand the futures market is heavily hedged,

Corey 17:30

But that to me actually makes it more sensible, not less. It seems like an argument for, not against.

Corey 17:36

by writing those escape hatches, they've effectively said everything's back on the table next year if these projections don't come up. And that to me, Stephen, we talk about the year one thing. I think this could be a year two thing for the government. And I'm willing to reserve judgment until I see what they do in year two. So

Zain 17:51

So tell me, you guys mentioned earlier the political versus the policy move. Who are the big political winners today? Who are the stakeholders politically that won today, whether you're inside or outside of the government? Corey? Well, I think anybody who's looking to build anything.

Corey 18:05

Lafarge must be pretty excited. There

Carter 18:08

There was a lot of

Carter 18:10

Yeah, they're going to spend a lot of money on stuff.

Carter 18:13

Yeah. I mean, road builders have got to be out of their minds. there's six billion dollars in road projects in the province of alberta compared

Carter 18:20

compared to like 2.2 billion dollars in health care infrastructure six

Carter 18:25

six billion dollars in roads and anybody who tells me that we shouldn't subsidize a high-speed train because you know we don't subsidize you know cars we build the freaking roads like come on people so

Carter 18:36

so yeah i mean that's

Corey 18:37

that's i think that's a bit of a straw man myself but uh what's interesting about the infrastructure to me is how How Justin Trudeau-esque it was. They talked about all this infrastructure spending, but they certainly didn't say what specific projects were benefiting yet. Look forward to that is kind of the cleanup from the budget over the next couple of weeks. Smart move, right?

Corey 18:57

agreed that that's – I mean, I thought it was a smart move before with the liberals. I have to think it's a smart move with the NDP. Let's

Zain 19:02

Let's talk about the two big things that, Carter, you always rail about, education and healthcare. Monsters. What do you make of those two monsters as they're presented today? Are you still of the mind that this was very similar to a, let's say, 2011, 2012 era PC budget?

Carter 19:19

Yeah, I am. I mean, I wish. So I've just glanced at the education, the advanced education spending. I think it was about $250 or $260 million more, which is interesting. What we wanted to do when

Carter 19:33

we were starting off in Redford's government is take the money and put it into postgraduate studies. Our thinking was that one of the best ways we could diversify our economy was to diversify our knowledge base, and knowledge is constructed in post-secondary. We have the lowest postgraduate student ratio in Canada and one of the lowest in North America.

Carter 19:55

We have to reinvest in that, and I would have liked to have seen that in this budget, that

Carter 19:59

are reinvesting in knowledge, not just reinvesting in trying to get more students through school. we we have a tendency to produce a lot of undergrads and very very little postgrads with real knowledge that can be marked well i mean we have

Corey 20:12

have a lot of undergrads i don't even think we produce them particularly well our high school to university rates pretty pretty low um

Corey 20:20

and i do think that's something that needs to be addressed i think we got to talk about the the job incentive because that's what the wild rose is currently i

Zain 20:26

i want to get to it but sure go ahead let's we'll get to it go but give me give me a quick take on on health care and education if you have anything before we get to jobs because i think that's the where the back and forth yeah

Corey 20:35

yeah we talked health they've talked about a number of specific i believe they called it targeted spending measures to do uh long-term care home care things of that nature i

Corey 20:45

we'll see how that pans out i think every government for the past 10 years it's at some version of that but if

Corey 20:50

if they actually have the political will i believe they could actually make some changes there as

Corey 20:53

as far as the education thing most of the education goodies on the primary primary, and secondary are backloaded. So we're going to get our school lunch program a year from now. We're going to get help on school fees a year from now, which, by the way, can

Corey 21:07

can I say their mapping back of what they're doing to their platform has been pretty good. I think that's the other thing I really credit them for because it's just, once again, them saying we

Corey 21:18

have the right to govern. We're asserting our right to govern. Everything we're doing here, we told you we were going to do. Exactly.

Corey 21:24

Which, by the way, the Globe and Mail, I think you all saw that headline, find with ndp duped voters by implementing its promises wild rose finance critic says yeah yeah it's just

Carter 21:33

just a joke but

Corey 21:36

that's that's kind of the point i mean they were elected on a platform that platform is pretty popular sure

Corey 21:41

sure why wouldn't they not remind people that they said they were going to do this and they're doing and they're doing it okay let's

Zain 21:46

ahead carter because i did

Zain 21:49

i'm sorry you didn't get a chance to chime in yeah um

Carter 21:50

um health care is coming up on 20 billion out of that $49 billion. Yes.

Carter 21:54

It is a ton of money and it will continue to be a ton of money because we're not getting healthier and we're just getting older.

Carter 22:00

And as we age, we cost a lot more money. This budget does nothing to address the healthcare cost curve, right?

Carter 22:08

right? 65% of healthcare spending is spent on 5% of the population.

Carter 22:12

That 5% of the population changes every two years. Do you know why, Zane?

Carter 22:16

Because they die, okay?

Carter 22:18

okay? We spend an awful lot of money on people as they die. And it is government's biggest challenge to

Carter 22:25

figure out how we can help people with

Carter 22:29

with their end-of-life planning so it doesn't cost an

Corey 22:31

an arm and a leg. Stephen Harper or Stephen Carter death panels coming out.

Zain 22:35

not death panels. It's

Carter 22:36

It's about individual choice and informed choice. Listen,

Corey 22:40

if there was – And it's not about euthanasia.

Corey 22:42

Listen, here are some pamphlets. If there was a – I'm just going to put them in front of you. If you decide to end your life, that's totally fine. It is not about euthanasia.

Carter 22:49

That is the biggest red herring argument that we have in healthcare. Door to

Zain 22:53

to door, Carter's dropping

Carter 22:54

dropping off his pamphlets. I'm going to come kick some ass. He's micro-targeting pamphlets at Cedars-Oates. You've lost control, Velji. It's

Zain 23:00

It's like, hey, listen, take a look at this pamphlet. Listen, if there was a healthcare system called CarterCare, I may not subscribe to it. It's pretty huge. It's called CarterCare. It's

Corey 23:08

It's actually just a

Carter 23:12

Nice, guys. It is not about that.

Zain 23:14

that. It's about making better choices. Okay, okay. This is deep into the policy weeds. I want to talk about something that has certainly had the political implication of this budget, and that's this job creation, what can I call it, program, system that the NDP want to implement as part of their incentive. There you go. Corey, tee it up for us because I think you've got the best line of sight on it with what you've been reading today. Let us know what it's about. Well, it's up to $5,000

Corey 23:37

,000 to create a job.

Corey 23:41

That's pretty much it. I mean, that's the simplest form of it to

Corey 23:44

institutions, nonprofits, corporations that could potentially create that job. Now, I haven't read all the details, so I don't know exactly what the parameters are around which organizations qualify and which ones do not. But it's 27,000 jobs a year between now and 2017. That could actually be pretty significant depending on how they decide to layer that out and how well they capture jobs that wouldn't otherwise have existed. Because

Corey 24:09

Because we've got a job force, a labor force here in Alberta of just under two and a half million people. Right, right.

Corey 24:14

27,000 people, that's 1%.

Carter 24:18

That's significant. It is, but my problem is how, I mean, the problem with this type of program is exactly what you alluded to.

Carter 24:25

How are you ensuring that this is not a job that would have otherwise been created anyway? So this is, well, I don't have the details. Because our economy creates jobs. Now, sometimes it creates jobs very effectively and very efficiently. Additionally, other times it creates really inefficient jobs where we start paying, you know, the stories of the Tim Hortons clerk making $27 an hour or

Zain 24:47

whatever it is. You know, but the point is… Oh, that sounds like a good job.

Zain 24:51

It would create very

Carter 24:52

very inefficient jobs, especially when we go into a boom. Right. In a bust, we're not creating very efficient jobs. But, for

Carter 25:00

are these $5,000 jobs going to be given $5,000 job incentives? No, I think you're just, that's now the wild

Zain 25:07

wild rose line, $5,000

Carter 25:12

But are they going to be given to the infrastructure industries, to the construction industries where we have just invested billions of dollars to ensure that we don't have to do that? That's

Corey 25:21

That's a great question. I actually look at them and I think you have to think of it in the context of that infrastructure spending and of what's happening right now in the energy sector. And

Corey 25:30

And I'm not saying these jobs are necessarily comparable. where both the jobs lost and energy can easily be replaced by these five thousand dollar jobs as we've decided to call them oh man

Zain 25:37

man you're just helping the other side this is great no

Corey 25:41

i don't necessarily think it's comparable but i think that when you look at that whole basket of jobs lost 40

Corey 25:46

40 000 or so it depends on the numbers you're looking at versus jobs they're attempting to create which will be close to 40 000 i think you can make the case the government has has

Corey 25:55

has has looked at the problem and said okay we're going to address that problem in a fairly direct manner manner i don't know the details yet i'm going to reserve final judgment on the five thousand dollar job program yeah

Zain 26:04

yeah five this is this is this is the uh the alberta equivalent of am works yeah yeah oh

Corey 26:10

nice yeah a reference to our entitled to

Zain 26:13

to nothing yeah um

Carter 26:14

um listen if you haven't watched the third season who are you

Zain 26:17

you first of all first of all don't do it if

Zain 26:19

haven't watched it put us on pause yeah

Zain 26:21

and find 15 hours in your life no don't do it terrible

Zain 26:25

actually was not a good season your

Corey 26:26

your your life's worth better than that

Zain 26:28

you know what i want to do is when the new season comes out i want to actually deconstruct the entire strategy of the new season the political strategy and do a podcast on it okay we'll call that

Carter 26:36

that something other than the strategy we

Zain 26:37

we will we will we're gonna be we're gonna jump at the shark at that point listen i want to i want to talk about the the waldros and the pcs and whoever's responded to this waldros effectively called this a socialist wet dream i you know i'm paraphrasing this this plan um

Zain 26:52

um it was close though he called

Corey 26:53

called it corporate welfare corporate

Zain 26:54

corporate welfare yeah um and and the pcs uh and and rick mckiver's uh hilariously tone deaf uh voice said that this will not affect anyone who has the ambition to make more than fifty thousand dollars a year i swear

Corey 27:07

swear to god did

Corey 27:10

like basic statistics on what people make like the number of people that

Corey 27:14

that they're essentially writing off as below even of worth

Corey 27:16

worth or value just a lot of people it infuriates me from just a pure geopolitical sense standpoint and also the height of temerity rick mckiver goes out and actually it was mammy bular who was saying this yeah like oh yeah but yeah sure one billion dollar surplus in a couple of years but look at all that capital spending like they weren't the guys who separated capital spending from operational budgets you know i mean where were these pcs right okay

Carter 27:43

driving me crazy yeah

Carter 27:45

these pcs that you know david dorward was posting on on his Facebook page the other day about, you know, these deficits that the NDP are going to be bringing us. Sure, the NDP are bringing us a deficit in a bust. You, sir, brought us deficits in

Zain 27:58

in a boom. Okay, okay. So let's talk about the difference between what they are saying today versus if you were advising the opposition parties broadly on this budget, what would you get them to say today? So help me out with the wild rose, first of all. If you were helping them out today, how should they be phrasing the entire budget? And if you want to talk about the job creation program specifically, let's start there. But let's talk broadly about how the opposition parties should be framing this budget for their benefit today.

Corey 28:26

Well, I think that if I'm the wild rose, I'm making all of the numbers on spending as big as possible.

Corey 28:32

I'm going back and I'm kind of deconstructing the operational capital out. And I haven't done it, but I'm talking

Corey 28:38

talking about Alberta's first $10 billion budget, if that's the case. I don't even know if that's the case or deficit. But on top of that, I'm pointing at everything I can that looks a little suspect or perhaps a bit duplicitous, saying they're not being straight with you. And maybe that they're doing too much, too fast, too quick.

Corey 28:58

Those would be my main lines of attack if I'm the Wild Rose. I don't really know why they want to pick on the job creation thing. The corporate welfare thing is just so rich.

Corey 29:06

And it just opens up a whole other line of counterattack. I'm not sure why the Wild Rose would want to go there. Carter,

Zain 29:12

Carter, before we answer, I just want to ask a broader question to you guys. is the budget, I

Zain 29:16

I mean, is the resources that the opposition parties put into criticizing a budget actually worth it? Does it ever get the mileage that they hope from it?

Carter 29:25

It does. I mean, you can actually grab onto a budget line and just beat

Corey 29:29

out of it. Yeah. I seem to recall we had a premier who lost his job over a budget less than a year ago. Frankly, yes. That's

Carter 29:37

Yeah. But, and so, arguably, Stelmack lost his job over the budget that he was trying to produce with Ted Moore. So

Zain 29:44

So the effort's worth it. Where should the Wildrose be putting their effort, Carter?

Carter 29:48

I have a really hard time with what the Wildrose should do.

Carter 29:51

Because if they're ideologically on the right wing, and if they're ideologically committed to spending cuts, then they really should be talking about what spending cuts they want to do.

Corey 30:01

you talking about posing an alternative? That's what you want them to do. But

Corey 30:04

But what's the best from a communication standpoint? Intellectually,

Corey 30:08

No, no. We never get that. Hold

Carter 30:10

What's the difference? The problem is that no one trusts the wild rose because they say they can balance the budget with doing minor cuts, right? It's a $6 billion deficit. Which minor cuts are you making?

Carter 30:24

I believe the wild rose could make a case that there is tons of spending that can be cut and that we should be eliminating programs, full-scale programs. But they won't articulate that and they're afraid of it. And because they're afraid of it, they're never going to be truly embraced by the right wing. look at rob ford

Carter 30:42

ford rob ford did shit he stopped spending money he was popular because of that not less popular more popular the wild rose needs to if they're going to do it if you're going to be the right wing alternative kids be the right wing alternative okay

Zain 30:58

okay so you're am i am i hearing you suggest that their response today should have been posing an alternative to this budget should have have been identifying what they should

Corey 31:07

should have cut i think that i think so no i think you're being too specific for this moment in time but i i could see them taking an intellectually honest right-wing approach sure hey

Corey 31:15

hey they might even find some ground for it here in alberta but you know you said it was a 6.1 billion dollar deficit for them to make up assuming they don't do any of these you

Corey 31:24

you know revenue increases it's actually like an eight and a half billion dollar deficit well

Corey 31:28

well maybe not there's a few more spending things in there too but the point being like that's a lot of ground to make up i don't know how they do that intellectually

Corey 31:35

intellectually honestly at all well

Carter 31:37

well i mean this is my problem with the wild rose and why i believe that the wild rose is consistently rejected by people who can think they

Carter 31:44

they are rejected by people who think because their arguments are shit okay

Corey 31:48

okay so so at the end of the day math is not that difficult it

Carter 31:51

it really isn't it's simply adding up a column on one side and adding up a column on the other side and And seeing if they match. I

Zain 31:58

I want to go immediately to the rest of the best, but I'm going to treat this piece as a little bit special because they're on the first – in the first – I'm in 40 plus years on the other side of a budget. They are responding to a budget rather than tabling one. If you're advising them and their five caucus members right now, and I don't know why you would be, Carter, but if you were, what would that line of reasoning for them look like? Where do they go from here and how can they define the narrative of this budget? Oh,

Carter 32:26

man. Like, that's impossible, isn't it?

Carter 32:30

when I say this is a PC budget, this is an old school PC budget. Increased spending.

Carter 32:36

mean, the fact, I guess the only thing that was done that they would never have done was increase revenues. So, McIver et al.

Carter 32:44

should be attacking the fact that taxation has gone up and you haven't just simply relied on oil prices to improve. prove well

Corey 32:53

a they're in an awkward spot i mean and they were actually asking for some additional revenue increases that aren't there like the health care premium i mean the premier is not wrong when she says for most albertans the pcs would have cost you more than than the new democrats do because the the big ndp revenue getters the corporate income tax and the personal income tax they

Corey 33:13

they don't hit most albertans yeah they don't hit the vast majority of albertans and

Carter 33:18

and even small business tax stayed the same so

Carter 33:20

so like yeah this is not a this is not a

Carter 33:24

bad news budget for people who don't make a lot of money this is a good news budget for people who don't make a lot of money put

Zain 33:30

put your put your liberal and alberta party hats on for two seconds oh

Zain 33:34

oh i don't want to independently independently is

Carter 33:37

is it a beanie with one of those little colors on the top um

Zain 33:41

um what do you do if you're greg clark of the alberta party cory what's what's he doing what should he do right now he's a one-man caucus he's he's got a voice he certainly has a knack for getting in media greg does what should he be doing right now and as it relates to this budget oh

Corey 33:56

oh i wish you'd gone to steven first because i don't i don't know what that's the one party i didn't check in on apologies to greg i definitely intended to but

Corey 34:05

they they have to you

Corey 34:07

know depending on where they want to be but assuming they want to be centrist to the right of of the NDP. I think there

Corey 34:13

there has to be a case made for at least a few cuts. I think that makes it a bit difficult for the Alberta party. And I would really like to see Greg Clark, if he wants to be the intellectually honest one, talk about a much more ambitious overhaul of the income tax system.

Carter 34:30

Yeah, I think that Greg Clark's best bet as a caucus of one, and this is probably my advice to david swan as well is to pick a department and

Carter 34:39

and just go hog wild on it learn

Carter 34:41

learn as much as humanly possible don't choose health because it's too big but

Carter 34:45

but choose um let's choose advanced education okay

Carter 34:47

and you know i mentioned earlier about the idea of investing in postgraduates i mean the investment that's been made in post-secondary isn't that big in the overall scheme of things and it's not very big compared to the cut that was made uh uh after i left when And MacCasick was the post-secondary minister.

Carter 35:04

get it, you know, I would go after that and say, you know, what are you doing here? I mean, you talk about increasing jobs, you talk about diversifying our economy. And yet post-secondary, which does that, which

Carter 35:16

which produces people who make jobs, which produces knowledge, you're not funding it properly or

Carter 35:22

or you're funding it too much. I don't care which way he wants to go, but take one department and just rip that shit apart. part corey

Zain 35:29

corey david swan interim leader of the liberals what

Zain 35:32

what is what does he do right now i mean he is what should he do well can

Corey 35:37

can he do what i've seen him do is say some nice things about it and you know maybe say something odd like we should entirely eliminate the small business tax which that

Corey 35:49

i you know talk about a massive incentive just to break up i already don't like the small business tax if i'm being honest but uh the um the

Corey 35:56

the the thing that david needs to do is understand or create a reason to exist right i mean that to him that's

Zain 36:02

that's been his yeah existential struggle for a while now we've articulated this before he

Corey 36:06

he was even interim leader the liberals have struggled with this but yeah

Corey 36:09

yeah they need to define a philosophy that they can kind of root about him because right now he seems just to be a a casual cheerleader for the ndp yeah

Corey 36:18

shows up from the sidelines he's

Carter 36:18

he's not a casual cheerleader he is a full-on cheerleader for the ndp he is i mean i haven't seen a word of criticism from him

Corey 36:26

yeah well i don't know i think sometimes he says things like i don't know if we should be phasing in this uh this you know minimum wage so quickly yeah

Carter 36:35

yeah i mean it's just it's it's absolute i

Carter 36:39

mean he may as well just stop and join the caucus yeah

Carter 36:42

yeah it kind of feels that way at

Zain 36:43

at this point okay final question on on the budget put on your ndp hats for me corey this is easy for you mine's already it's already ready on it's bright orange uh how

Zain 36:53

how do you advise the premier and the ndp to sell this after today today and after today what is the sell job going forward because we just talked about number one i just want to make sure we're clear on this you know defining a budget narrative super important if the opposition gets a hold of it they can totally crush you for it right and and there's plenty of opportunity if you guys are certainly advising them there's plenty of opportunity for these opposition parties to find a counter narrative how do you advise the ndp today and what is that narrative they push going forward i'll start with you on this one naturally cory well

Corey 37:25

well i think that we've seen like they did pretty good on this one the wild rose didn't really know what to do with their debt ceiling argument they trotted out yesterday okay taking

Zain 37:33

taking care of that one right

Corey 37:34

right and uh the pcs were were making weird comments like it doesn't look like the government has any intention of contributing to the heritage fund except interest payments which was a lot more more than the PCs did for years, you know, so they don't really know what to do. And I think now you press the advantage, right? They're still reacting to now, but I think over the next couple of days, you can start making real some of those, those

Corey 37:54

those expenditures, specifically, I'm talking about infrastructure. I think the premier's down in Calgary tomorrow, maybe not tomorrow, but why not tomorrow? Talk, give us the green line, give us the green line tomorrow. That's what we'll be talking about. Start going to all of the different infrastructure projects around the province, the things that need to be done. And bury any headlines the opposition would like to come forward with big ticket expenditures that you've already committed to doing. That would be my advice. I

Zain 38:20

I like that selling the message forward. Carter, what would you do right now if you are advising the NDP on their go forward plan on the messaging of this budget?

Carter 38:29

That's a pretty good idea. I had a different idea that I wanted to go with, but I'd like to steal Corey's. I'd like to hear yours. I like Corey's idea. I think it's a good strategy. I also would would have gone with, or I was considering, just shit

Carter 38:40

shit down the PC's throat.

Carter 38:44

throat? Yeah. Right now, I don't believe that the wild rose is ever going to form government in Alberta.

Carter 38:49

Okay? It's intellectually dishonest. It's as duplicitous in my mind as the federal NDP. And

Carter 38:56

And they will never get a large

Carter 38:59

large enough base to form government.

Carter 39:03

But the PCs in the center could resurrect. and i would just absolutely fuck

Carter 39:07

fuck over the pc you

Zain 39:08

you you want to focus on killing them right now cory what is there is there a particular sort of cost

Corey 39:12

cost to doing that yeah i think there's a big risk that's that the pcs are in such dire straits already they raised what like thirty thousand dollars last quarter kill them till they're dead oh man let

Corey 39:21

them be dead i don't know i mean i think the risk is that they all join the wild rose and over three years the wild rose becomes that moderate alternative the

Carter 39:28

the biggest risk is that they join the conservatives or the wild wild rose and create the conservative party this is my point

Carter 39:33

but that's not your threat today today you need the pc's dead you

Corey 39:37

you know what that would be present ndp screwing future ndp i think that just like just

Corey 39:42

just like the wild or sorry the conservatives had to deal with the ndp and the liberals and wanted to keep them at balance in alberta the dynamic is different alberta two conservative

Corey 39:52

conservative parties in balance it's a fair point they do that they can win anything

Zain 39:56

anything sorry that's that's i don't want to i don't completely cut you off on that i think that's interesting anything else to add to that to

Zain 40:02

to to what the ndp should be doing outside of taking a crap on the pcs well

Zain 40:09

i think it's intriguing there

Carter 40:10

there are big problems to figure out um the

Carter 40:14

the budget doesn't but the budget is simply your starting document right so now you've got a framework and

Carter 40:21

they need to go and figure out health care advanced education education i don't think education as much i actually don't have a big problem with the k-12 system i

Carter 40:28

know that some some people do. I don't.

Carter 40:32

I think that there's,

Carter 40:33

there's, there's much more to do. I mean, one of the things, did I miss this? Did they address school fees? That's coming next year. So

Corey 40:40

So they've essentially budgeted for it going forward next year.

Corey 40:45

And that, that again, that's like, that was one of the geniuses of this document to me that they, they listed out relative to their platform, what was happening now, what was planned for the future. This is how it's all going to get Okay,

Zain 40:57

let's move it on to our next segment. Our next segment, the summer of our disconnect. We are back talking about provincial politics. Obviously, the budget segment was our big deep dive into it. But there's a few stories that we missed throughout this summer and early September, October that I'd like to cover and talk about in terms of our provincial politics. So the first thing is, you

Zain 41:18

you know, what does the liberal win federally say about the NDP government? Rachel Notley came out in the 11th hour vocally supporting Tom Mulcair saying that he was a symbol of change that this country needed. How much risk did Rachel Notley put herself and her government by doing that, Corey?

Corey 41:35

Corey? i think none it was costed in we all knew rachel notley was a new democrat born into a new democrat hold

Carter 41:41

hold on she's a

Corey 41:44

we all know the ndp is a fused federal provincial organization so

Carter 41:46

so is she a new ndp

Carter 41:48

ndp party supporter a

Corey 41:50

a new ndp party supporter indeed wow

Corey 41:54

yeah the nndpp yeah there's we've

Corey 41:57

we've got to get people to address that stop calling it the ndp party that's just the

Carter 42:02

the worst people go crazy

Corey 42:03

crazy yeah it's like atm machine or pin number those are not things you can't say them um

Zain 42:09

here's here's wait wait the the n in pin stands for number yeah

Zain 42:14

did not know that personal identification

Zain 42:16

just said pins a cool word to say it's like here's your pin you're one of those those people this

Corey 42:21

this is terrible go ahead i don't want to derail you uh well i think that all of that fact that she's a new democrat notwithstanding I mean, we've probably been very happy to work with Tom Mulcair's good soldier.

Corey 42:31

You've got to admit, the liberal infrastructure plan looks an awful lot like her infrastructure. Yeah,

Zain 42:35

Yeah, I mean, we've talked many times about Trudeau going to the left. There could be some great synergies

Corey 42:40

synergies there, and it'll make those infrastructure dollars that have just been allocated provincially go all the further. And I think that's great for her, and I really

Corey 42:47

really don't read too much into the fact that the liberals did better in Alberta than the NDP. Different election, different times. Sometimes, even

Corey 42:54

even though the NDP may be fused federal, provincial, there are an awful lot of people who don't treat them as the same organization federally and provincially, myself included in that group.

Zain 43:02

Yeah, okay. So, Corey, you stole one of my questions, which was effectively I'll throw this to Carter. Should she be concerned that her party did not do as well, even remotely as well, federally as they did provincially in her rise as premier?

Carter 43:17

I mean, the reality is that she seems

Carter 43:19

seems to be heeding the advice that I gave to the PCs in 2012.

Carter 43:24

You didn't win this election. They lost this election. So the

Carter 43:27

the Wild Rose lost in 2012, right?

Carter 43:30

In 2015, the PCs lost. The NDP didn't

Carter 43:35

didn't win. It looks like they did. They got a big majority and they're very excited about that, except they didn't win. And

Carter 43:41

And if they want to win the next election, if they want to win the next election, they have to earn the votes moving forward. I don't know how you could say they didn't

Corey 43:48

didn't win. Their platform was the most popular. their policies test through the roof and guess what they won they won full stop they elected this government they had other options we

Carter 43:59

we on like but did

Carter 44:00

did they have other options let me see how did the ndp do in the federal election cory hogan you

Carter 44:05

you know alberta i might be worried about that in canada i

Corey 44:08

i might be worried about that if they were the same thing steven i don't think you know what the shit

Corey 44:13

shitty in the shit or not i might also be worried about that i might But I'd also be worried about that if there was a provincial liberal party to be worried about. All of those liberal votes have a more natural home with the NDP. There is

Carter 44:24

is no cause for concern.

Corey 44:25

Oh, they're going to go to Greg Clark and the Alberta party?

Carter 44:28

Oh, yeah. Well, he's doing a great job.

Carter 44:31

Did I say that?

Carter 44:32

Well, where are they going to go?

Carter 44:34

Right back to the PCs. That's

Zain 44:35

That's just not going to happen. Corey, you're fundamentally against the fact that she should be worrying at all. Yeah, I don't think she should be worrying at all. You

Corey 44:40

You have to get elected

Carter 44:42

again. This is the reality and

Corey 44:42

and how many other

Carter 44:42

other promises. Have we done a poll? Someone should do a poll. you

Carter 44:46

you know what we'll

Carter 44:47

we'll do a poll we'll do a poll next

Corey 44:48

next week we'll have something there'll be a poll for now we'll do one it's more fun when we do them it

Zain 44:54

i i will have to talk about that more i i'm i'm with carter on this one quite frankly i mean her party is the same you are

Carter 45:00

are an orange apologist it's

Carter 45:02

it's the same goddamn

Zain 45:02

goddamn institution federally and provincially and they get their one incumbent seat who you know gets her seat back and that's it that's

Corey 45:10

that's it the same organization and that helps them organizationally but i don't think the public as a whole gives a damn There are lots of circumstances where they elect. Oh, man, that's a leap, Corey. Oh, come on. Look at BC. Look at Manitoba. Look at Saskatchewan. Look at Nova Scotia. Look at Ontario. All of these places have new Democratic parties that have at various times been

Corey 45:29

in power or not. And you know what? It rarely correlates to support for the federal government. Okay,

Zain 45:34

Okay, you were telling me to look at a lot of places. I want to look at one in particular, and that's our hometown of Calgary. Let's talk about Rachel Notley and the NDP in this city. And hopefully this has a little bit more of a agreement between the two of you because the question quite frankly is – and this is what Rob Brown posed to Corey and I last week was, does Rachel Notley have a Calgary problem, Stephen Carter?

Carter 45:55

has a Calgary problem for

Carter 45:57

for sure. She has a rural Alberta problem for

Carter 46:01

Anybody who's pretending otherwise, I mean there

Carter 46:03

there is no money flowing – I mean very little money flowing into the party. Yeah.

Carter 46:07

They're the government. They should be able to raise lots more than they're doing. they they do not have a base they're not able to pull together a huge uh uh

Carter 46:15

uh you know new constituency associations their mlas are untested and unknown i mean we haven't seen any mla from calgary we

Carter 46:24

we have three ministers from calgary correct we haven't seen anybody except joe cc

Carter 46:30

seen the mlas forget about the other ministers hold

Zain 46:33

hold on let's let's let's give people some context so this comes on the heels of a few things number one carter you mentioned in the fundraising number two uh premier not only just before thanksgiving kieran calgary gave a speech uh hosted by the chamber of commerce 1500 or so people in attendance chilly reception cory to

Corey 46:51

the least look i'm not gonna pretend like i don't i'm not gonna argue with steven here they do have a calgary problem this is a real problem that the new democrats may not have to address publicly because how do you do that say yeah we got a calgary problem you just reinforce that you

Carter 47:03

you got to make

Corey 47:03

make it work but they better realize they've got a calgary problem and the problem is The problem is not about the MLAs, although the MLAs are a symptom. The problem is not about the ministers, although the ministers are a symptom. And the problem is simply that there is no new Democrat ecosystem here in Calgary.

Corey 47:17

So when you go to an event like the chamber event, everyone's

Corey 47:20

everyone's sitting on their hands. I'll tell you something. I'll bet you at every single one of those tables, there was one or two new Democratic supporters. But when we're outnumbered at our table, six to two, we're going to sit on our hands. what you need to do is get a few people not a lot of people but a few people willing to stand up and say yeah you know what i support them or if not i support them at least i'm not opposed to these guys i want to see where this goes

Carter 47:41

goes that was a politically tacked a political mistake allowing her to speak to a room that didn't at least have 35

Carter 47:50

right if you and i were organizing that we would add 35 of our people in the room and up close yeah and they would have been applauding And everybody else would have gone, well, I guess there's some other

Corey 48:01

who agree. Well, I agree with that a lot. I think that that generally speaks, though, to the same problem I'm talking about. It's exactly

Carter 48:06

exactly what you're talking about. I'm not disagreeing with what you're talking about. But if they'd had anything vaguely resembling true organization, they would have fixed the problem.

Zain 48:14

problem. So, Corey, let me ask the fundamental question here. Corey, you believe, and tell me if I'm wrong in assuming what you're saying, that this is a solvable problem with building a Calgary ecosystem? Yeah, it's absolutely solvable.

Corey 48:24

solvable. the problem is not with public support right now although public support will trail as a result of this lack of ecosystem down the road if everybody they're talking to or and everybody who's making a comment is out there saying negative things but

Corey 48:38

the pieces are there i think there are what are the pieces necessary lay it out for us just very quickly in your mind i think you need a few business leaders not a lot of business leaders but a few business leaders who are willing to make positive comments i think

Zain 48:49

think you need let them finish

Zain 48:50

finish i'm curious i

Corey 48:50

i think you need the heads of nonprofits not a lot of nonprofits but you should be able to get more of those than business leaders and they

Corey 48:56

should be able to speak their mind and then i think you just need socialites i guess or or the or the social class who are going out you know you shouldn't have to go to like a fundraiser and not know if anybody is in your corner if you're an ndp right supporter ultimately

Corey 49:09

ultimately this goes back to what i talk i talk about this all the time the false consensus effect right

Corey 49:16

you know you're in a room of people if you're the business community right now and

Corey 49:19

you think everybody thinks you're winning right

Corey 49:22

because as far as you know you've never met a new democratic supporter

Corey 49:26

you know we had a conversation with a co-worker of ours in the other day yeah she came in she's like i've never even run into someone who's voted ndp and then literally around the entire circle every single one of us said like well yeah i actually voted nd yeah yeah um because

Corey 49:40

because there's just not those conversations happening so

Corey 49:43

so it's not just about breaking their false consensus it's

Corey 49:46

it's about creating your own false consensus you've got to build that 30 you've got to build people who can be next to each other who

Zain 49:52

who can think be like we're

Zain 49:52

we're all yeah we're all new democrats yeah

Zain 49:55

intriguing proposal carter is this a solvable problem through an ecosystem or is the problem i'm not going to say deeper because i don't want to belittle cory's point or is the problem something else you

Carter 50:06

you you can't not solve it without the ecosystem but you also have to solve it by fitting into the intellectual expectations of people like Like, if this government wants to survive, it needs to be meeting the expectations of the voters.

Carter 50:21

mean, I don't necessarily

Carter 50:23

necessarily disagree with this budget. I kind of like this budget.

Carter 50:26

But I'm not sure that it's enough to

Carter 50:29

make me an NDP supporter.

Carter 50:31

I want to see more. And if she wants to earn it, she's got a problem. And she has to earn it by being intellectually honest. I'm

Zain 50:38

I'm going to ask a very blunt question here. How much in your mind, Carter, is the problem her current crop of Calgary MLAs? Is that a big problem? Corey says it's not. He says it's a symptom. And for you, how much of that is a problem?

Carter 50:57

it's got to be a huge problem. I mean, Debra Drever yesterday was one of the – so Debra Drever was kicked out of the NDP caucus for having a past, which I think all of us have. But anyway,

Carter 51:09

anyway, she was outstanding

Carter 51:12

outstanding in question period yesterday. Her questions were right

Carter 51:14

right on track with the ring road. She did a great job. I

Carter 51:18

I think Deborah Drever could be the star of this Calgary caucus by the end of this session. Trial

Carter 51:24

fire. She had to go through some things and had to actually learn some stuff and

Carter 51:28

and had to actually start to deliver.

Carter 51:31

I don't think –

Carter 51:32

well, first of all, I don't think I could name three other people who were a part of this Calgary caucus. focus uh

Carter 51:36

uh in no small part because they

Carter 51:39

they haven't done anything to stand up cory

Corey 51:41

yeah i i disagree with that i i to be honest i i seriously doubt you're keeping up on the committee work and all of the other things the nature of an mla's job is they're not going to be on the front page of the newspaper every day i don't think this is a bad crop i think they are a new crop and i think that their roots are shallow and that can be solved with time but ultimately the problem is these These MLAs don't have broad networks. And so when I talk about that ecosystem, they neither come from it nor can they support one.

Zain 52:09

That's a good point. That's a very good point,

Corey 52:10

point, yeah. Something that's going to have to be built externally from the caucus. And

Corey 52:14

And that's where I think that the party should be putting a lot of its effort right now.

Zain 52:19

Carter, what do you make of the premier's recent cabinet shuffle? Can we call it that? No,

Zain 52:24

No, we cannot call it a cabinet shuffle. So effectively, for those who don't know, she moved one of her, I guess, incumbent MLAs that she had from the past. um darren billis to a more senior portfolio of economic diversification or development and she brought in a a minister from lesser slave lake to take on municipal uh affairs and public service or service alberta yeah

Zain 52:47

once again highlighting the calgary problem or not so much of a deal there well

Carter 52:51

well i mean i i really would be hard pressed to name someone else in the calgary caucus who deserves to be a cabinet minister um

Carter 52:57

um now in fairness i'll be fair cory's

Carter 53:00

cory's absolutely right they don't get the opportunity to shine i

Carter 53:03

went to a lot of stampede events didn't

Carter 53:05

didn't see any of them right

Carter 53:08

events where we would have seen mlas before uh you know who i did see every

Carter 53:13

every single candidate for federal election listen

Zain 53:15

listen i'm going to challenge you on the on the mlas during stampede cory and i were at an event that okay

Carter 53:20

single event that's good i think

Corey 53:23

you know what actually i i'll bridge the gap here they were definitely at some events that i saw So my concern was, again, and this goes back not to their competency necessarily, but like their expertise and their experience. They were not great networkers at those events. Those are the kind

Corey 53:39

of things that the party needs to build.

Zain 53:41

build. I think, Corey, you had a great line on CBC the other day. It's not that these individuals from Calgary are new to being MLAs. A lot of them are new to employment, right?

Zain 53:52

missed out, Carter. You clearly didn't watch our show. Carter never watches anything that does not have him in it. um so

Zain 53:59

so so hold on you you don't you i didn't get your answer there should she have appointed someone from calgary would

Zain 54:05

would that have been enough of an overture

Zain 54:06

honestly god can't okay

Zain 54:08

cory was that an issue

Corey 54:10

i don't know i mean again i think it was a symptom of the issue and i think with time some of these calgary mlas will be great ministers i think they just need a bit more seasoning i

Corey 54:18

i firmly believe that i've met a lot of them i got a lot of time for a lot of i'm not going to pick my favorites right here but you are the yeah well we met a lot of corn yeah likewise I've met, I'd say most of the Calgary caucus. But look, I think that it's not so simple as that. I think that it's not just about cabinet. I

Corey 54:38

I worry when I see, for example, the Economic Advisory Committee, how north heavy it seems.

Corey 54:44

think it's funny and it may be a bit rich to most Edmontonians being like, oh, Calgary's feeling sensitive about that now. Well, yeah, Calgary is feeling a bit sensitive about that now. You don't want to replace the situation where Edmonton was ignored with one where Calgary was ignored. And

Corey 54:57

I think the fact that it was a bit North Heavy speaks to that lack of ecosystem. There weren't the business leaders outside of Nancy Southern and probably a couple others. I'll have to take a look at the list again.

Corey 55:08

It's just there needs to be more people that you can draw from for such things. things okay

Zain 55:13

so so we've acknowledged the calgary problem answer me this which party is best positioned to take advantage while the ndp struggle to build their ecosystem their mla is mature whatever happens and whatever they need to do who is best positioned politically right now to take advantage of this this gap well

Corey 55:31

well i think the wild rose because they're a good opposition but they'll never be government if they continue their current approach and

Zain 55:35

and the current current wild rose seat count in calgary one

Zain 55:40

yeah i mean they are they are

Carter 55:41

are the most likely to take advantage of it um

Carter 55:44

um it's been interesting i'm

Zain 55:46

surprised i was expecting you to say the pc resurrection here a little bit well

Carter 55:49

well the pc resurrection is a two-headed monster like i don't know who the pcs are they rick mcivor's party or santa trance's party well i think

Corey 55:55

think if the pcs gain a little but not a lot in calgary that just balances them with the wild rose more helps the ndp okay

Zain 56:02

so they're are best positioned yeah

Carter 56:03

i mean the wild rose is the only opposition party right now

Zain 56:07

okay let's move it on to our last segment or over under our lightning round guys which provincial party had the best campaign during the federal election period so our best sort of period of time during the federal election period and you could very well say it could be one of the ones that just didn't do anything and didn't put themselves in trouble but in your mind which one was it it's

Carter 56:24

it's got to be the alberta party it's the only party that didn't support another party that wound up losing uh interesting

Corey 56:29

interesting cory well the wild rose went out and said just like hold your nose and vote harper that didn't work out so well yeah

Carter 56:36

yeah the pcs were all in on harper and caused internal caucus strife it certainly does they you know rick mciver went and did it without his caucus approval and

Zain 56:43

and a few of them were helping out uh candidates on on the other side yeah i

Corey 56:46

i think you could make the case the liberals didn't have a terrible time i mean they didn't have much of a presence but the liberal brand probably took a bit of a bump the

Corey 56:53

the liberal party federally got They got 30% of the vote in Calgary. And

Carter 56:56

And yet they didn't really get a bump on provincial polling for the recent polls. Well, this

Corey 57:00

is sort of my earlier point that you're now agreeing with.

Zain 57:03

with. One line item from this budget that you've seen so far. I know you haven't all done the deep dives. One line item that you've seen so far that you like the most, Stephen?

Carter 57:09

Increase in advanced education funding. Corey?

Corey 57:12

It's that simple. It's the best part. One

Zain 57:14

One line that you're skeptical about or one line that you were effectively skeptical or don't like as much. I'll go with you again, Carter, on that.

Carter 57:22

Healthcare. Health care. We are not addressing the fundamental issues in health care.

Corey 57:27

Yeah, I think health care on the spending side, on the revenue side, I think that there's still something to be said for income taxes. Scale

Zain 57:34

Scale of 1 to 10. Scale of 1 to 10. The impact of Rachel Notley not getting – or the NDP not getting any seats in Alberta federally. Scale of 1 to 10. She got one.

Carter 57:44

They got one in. Oh,

Zain 57:45

Oh, sorry. Just getting one seat federally. Yeah,

Zain 57:48

Yeah, no new seats. No new seats. Correct.

Zain 57:50

Scale of 1 to 10 there.

Zain 57:54

Yeah, this is going to be a...

Carter 57:55

a... One of us is right and one of us is wrong. The guy who's wrong is Nick Corey. Four years from now,

Corey 57:59

now, we're going to be able to divine which actually impacted it. I'm rarely

Carter 58:03

rarely with Carter, but

Corey 58:03

but I'm with him on this one. When

Carter 58:05

lose your honeymoon, it's gone. I don't think it's gone.

Zain 58:08

Yes or no? Give me a yes or no answer on this. This budget will end up going the way the NDP want in terms of a message narrative. It will go their direction. They'll be able to push down their message narrative. Yes or no, Corey? Yes, but their expectations weren't high.

Carter 58:22

Yes, because their opposition are morons.

Zain 58:26

And finally, your one word strategy for helping the NDP sell their budget in the next week, Carter?

Zain 58:32

I love it. Build local. We'll combine it together. And that's a wrap on episode 555 of The Strategist. My name is Zane Velgey. With me as always, Stephen Carter, Corey Hogan, and we'll see you next time.

Zain 58:47

Listeners of The Strategist podcast. Remember,

Zain 58:50

Remember, we are on iTunes and Stitcher, so make sure you subscribe to our podcast on there. Also, we're on Twitter at StrategistPod and individually at Corey Hogan, at Carter underscore AB, and at Zane Velji.

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