Episode 548: #GlobeDebate Live

SPEAKER_02 0:02

This is a strategist episode 548. My name is Zain Velji. With me as always, Corey Hogan, Stephen Carter, and a live audience here in Calgary.

Carter 0:15

like they're on cue. It's like someone had a bell

SPEAKER_02 0:17

bell that they were ringing for two hours to get them on cue.

SPEAKER_02 0:21

By the way, did that guy remind you of like in an alternate universe if like the weakest link was hosted by a male guy? Like, dude, that guy would host it. You know what a week is like?

SPEAKER_02 0:31

yeah. A mean lady

Carter 0:31

lady with, like, the bell. Really

Carter 0:32

Yeah, with the bell. Really good. And listen, you didn't go through all the rules. First of all, I have to put my name tag on and keep it on at all times. So, otherwise, you'll get arrested. Guest. Yeah, I'm the guest. It's exactly what you need. So, you were at the debate.

Carter 0:45

debate. I was at the debate. You guys missed out on all the fun. Let's be clear on the rules, okay? No clapping.

Carter 0:55

Or, seriously, you're out of here.

Carter 0:57

Okay? So that's how they opened it up, and we're all like, two

Carter 1:01

hours? And then when they started the pre-show, did anybody know there was a pre-show?

SPEAKER_02 1:07

No, no idea. Did anyone?

Carter 1:08

anyone? Because I'm like, really?

Carter 1:13

So I've suffered more than you people.

SPEAKER_02 1:17

Corey, do you have anything to add? I mean, those are pretty much the rules we had here. Now, no one followed them.

SPEAKER_00 1:22

Well, we were pretty poor at announcing them, too. too. And yeah,

SPEAKER_00 1:26

yeah, I don't know. I just don't understand when the conservatives got the right to run the debate. Like, I don't understand. Oh,

Carter 1:32

Oh, well, I mean, clearly the conservatives bought the newspaper.

Carter 1:35

I mean, I don't like the broadcast consortium, but is anybody other than me going, oh, God, bring back the broadcast consortium? That was trash.

Carter 1:43

trash. Give us Steve Kagan again, please. Who's with me? Okay,

Carter 1:48

let's get into all

SPEAKER_02 1:50

all of this. Let's move it it on to our first segment of the podcast,

SPEAKER_02 2:00

like that, right? So one thing that you may not know, these guys don't see any of the questions or the categories beforehand, so the genuine glint on their face is very authentic. They're very easy to please. Okay, so there are many, many components that go into preparing your candidate for a debate, right? You prepare them for weeks, there's content, there's policy, there's your comfort on stage. There's connection to the audience.

SPEAKER_02 2:25

I want to go through that laundry list of items today and

SPEAKER_02 2:28

and I want you to point to me who the two ducks were, they got by fine, and who the douche was.

SPEAKER_02 2:33

Who was the douche today on stage? Okay? Is that cool? Are we all good with that? Okay, awesome. Let's go with that.

Carter 2:41

Let's talk about the thing that I think is going to be... Yeah,

Carter 2:51

That turned for you.

SPEAKER_02 2:52

Yeah, that did turn for you quickly. Just the seating arrangement. Okay. I think the thing that people will take away the most, in my mind, correct me if I'm wrong,

SPEAKER_02 2:59

is the comfort level of the candidates. So tell me, in terms of the comfort level, the

SPEAKER_02 3:04

the two ducks and the douche.

SPEAKER_00 3:07

I'm going to give duck to Harper. Harper looked pretty comfortable. He's actually looked pretty good in these debates recently. He should. This is like his 800th. Remember all those minority governments we had? And Mulcair kind of found a nice dial between comatose and off the wall.

SPEAKER_00 3:24

But I'll tell you, Justin Trudeau came off to me, at least, like, I liked his content. I did, a lot. But I'll tell you, he felt a lot like the high school debater who was trying a little too hard. Interesting.

Carter 3:40

Carter, what do you think? Well, I don't disagree with what Corey has said, but I think I have to go with a different douche.

Carter 3:46

because I give the duck to Mulcair. Not the

SPEAKER_02 3:48

the first time you've said that.

Carter 3:58

about that is half the audience got it right away. Took a little bit of time to jump in. I think I'm

SPEAKER_02 4:04

I'm still the other bit of time, and I said

Carter 4:08

Garrett, I'm going to, you know, absolutely. Absolutely what? I absolutely got the duck. Okay.

Carter 4:13

Absolutely got the duck. Like, I think that Justin Trudeau got a duck because he actually sounded human today instead of like William Shatner. So a step forward for everybody's books. But Stephen Harper,

Carter 4:24

his grin creeped me the hell out.

Carter 4:28

was in the room with him, and honest to God, I was looking for weapons.

Carter 4:33

That was a scary-ass grin, and that struck me as a grin that only could belong to someone who was seriously thinking about carving up the other people. so

Carter 4:42

that to me is the douche of the of the event the douche

SPEAKER_00 4:47

douche grin okay i just think that he was kind of uh emoting that background of that 80s murder scene of the house of commons you know

Carter 4:54

know what it really was it was like um oh

Carter 4:56

oh it's a guy from david caruso he takes off his glasses

SPEAKER_02 5:00

we've had a murder it's

Carter 5:05

our democracy is dead

SPEAKER_02 5:09

we got that one out of the way i want to talk about another one i think it goes hand in hand with it cadence now first tell me as strategists how do you prepare your candidate for for cadence and delivering their lines because the lines are written they memorize them for weeks on in advance how do you nail cadence first tell me that and then tell me who the douche was well i'm going to start because i want to jump in on uh true true

Carter 5:31

true had a great line and it was uh Mr. Harper, you had deficits during the boom years. Mr. Harper, you had deficits during the tough years. The only years you don't have deficits are election years. And I'm like, oh, my God, that was great. And for the first time, he actually delivered it like a human being.

Carter 5:49

Because if you remember in the Mac debate, as we're now cleverly

Carter 5:55

cleverly referring to it, the Maclean's debate, he was so bad that during his final statement, the moderator stepped in because

Carter 6:01

because he was in a pause that lasted for about an hour and

Carter 6:05

and so the moderator jumped in so when we're talking about cadence we want something that sounds human like i'm probably talking too fast right there because i got really excited justin trudeau's cadence today was

Carter 6:16

was way too fast constantly

Carter 6:19

yeah and quaalude tommy in the mac debate has has taken a big step forward

Carter 6:27

they like quaalude tommy but he took a big step forward today because he again he sounded much more relaxed and Harper continues. Harper's a pro at this.

Carter 6:37

He sounded great. And so if I'm going to give my douche award on cadence, it has to go to Justin Trudeau. Again.

Carter 6:44

Well, no. Your first one. My first one was Stephen Harper. Oh, it was.

SPEAKER_00 6:48

was. Yes, yes, yes. Let's not forget it. Stand corrected. The douche you're in. Corey, when you're prepping a candidate for a debate, when you're going in like that, their natural inclination is to race. So you're usually telling them to slow down. Not usually with pills like they did with Mulcair in the first game.

SPEAKER_02 7:03

or bear tranquilizer, whatever it was. Both,

SPEAKER_00 7:08

But you could see that Trudeau was having a lot of trouble with his kids. He was going way too fast. He was a runaway trap. And

Carter 7:16

And the Twitterverse was all apologetic for him, saying, well, he had to get in before the bell.

Carter 7:21

pay attention to the bell?

Carter 7:22

Did anybody stop when the bell rang? It struck me as just this kind of odd inter-sentence thing, where you're in the middle of the set, ding, and you just kept going.

Carter 7:30

You know, you just kept going. Power

SPEAKER_02 7:32

Power through the bell. Exactly.

SPEAKER_02 7:33

Okay, moving on to what

SPEAKER_02 7:35

what I think is going to be the most social or viral or memorable, which are the lines of tonight. I was watching from behind stage. There were quite a few lines that I saw that Tom Mulcair delivered that people were laughing at. But

SPEAKER_02 7:46

But from your guys' perspective, Corey, you being here, Carter, you being in the room, what were the lines that you could not help laughing at or that there was a group of a row of people that you were like, oh, we can't laugh, you know, dear Lord Globa

SPEAKER_02 7:59

Globa De Bay? But

SPEAKER_02 8:00

But if I would, it would be this slide or it would be this person that delivered it. Well,

Carter 8:03

Well, the one that jumps out at me is Mulcair saying to

Carter 8:07

to Trudeau after he goes with Puff and Smoke, well, you'd be familiar with that. Yeah. I mean,

Carter 8:13

first of all, it's kind of on a different plane because it took some explaining on Twitter.

Carter 8:17

No, he meant like he's with marijuana, right? Like it's a high thing.

Carter 8:21

So Twitterverse is explaining it to journalists. Katie's like, I just didn't get it.

Carter 8:27

it's like yes it was a joke about pot so it was hilarious for people who got it right away and i did think it was it was kind of the line of the of the evening for me but who who was the guy that had the lines tonight oh

SPEAKER_00 8:39

oh it was tom he had all of the best lines he did what he needed to do on that too because you want to be funny you remember in like oceans 11 where it's like you want him to like you but then forget you that kind of thing when it comes to politicians and comedy you don't want to be too funny think about john crosby and how many times he just royally fucked himself right

SPEAKER_00 8:58

right by saying what was funny instead of what was political uh tom mulcair was funny but forgetful funny you know like you'd forget about it but then why

SPEAKER_02 9:06

why is why is forgetful funny good i want to dig into that a little bit more because is is the goal of this not to have and let's let's extend it beyond funny okay is the goal of it not to have a line or a sentiment that goes alongside comfort and cadence that people remember tomorrow morning the day after or next week absolutely

Carter 9:22

absolutely but if you even if you take uh trudeau's a motorcade line so trudeau delivers the motorcade line mr harper you've been living in a motorcade he

Carter 9:29

he used that to uh emphasize a point and that was a good line to emphasize the point the same way i think that the deficit lines was a good line to emphasize a point um but

Carter 9:40

but when you're when you say something funny you're

Carter 9:42

you're not being by definition almost you're not prime ministerial and

Carter 9:46

and so that was justin trudeau's problem today was was did he reach the level of oh yeah he strikes me as someone who can be prime minister well

Carter 9:55

well care and trudeau and harper both were stoically

Carter 10:00

stoically prime minister and then and then well care threw on this little sprinkling of spice that we like and and still could be considered statesman like well i think the lines were so funny we forgave them interesting

Carter 10:14

instantly forgettable though and funny we could have a future in politics yeah

Carter 10:19

this is this is looking great this is

SPEAKER_02 10:22

good yeah Stephen Stephen Carter in politics is everyone's nightmare um

SPEAKER_02 10:30

talk to me about content who

SPEAKER_02 10:32

who was who were the two ducks who was the douche on content let

SPEAKER_02 10:35

let it down for me duck

SPEAKER_00 10:36

duck one uh Justin Trudeau he had a really good command of the facts you had to give him that I will agree with that his platform platform uh he gave coherently if not at you know a way too rapid pace uh stephen

SPEAKER_00 10:48

stephen harper he just knows this stuff he's cold i really do think that you got to give the douche to mulcair because of how you

SPEAKER_00 10:57

got yeah give the douche to mulcair that's gonna haunt my night

SPEAKER_02 11:04

but right off the start he was

SPEAKER_00 11:08

he said many many times in that that debate uh i think to or he was asked many many times in that debate to his detriment what's your price and

SPEAKER_00 11:17

and he never could answer

SPEAKER_02 11:17

answer the price question

SPEAKER_02 11:19

that was really damning for me oh okay so hold on i want to challenge you on something when when you said you're giving a duck to trudeau yeah i heard a few grunts in the audience i'm sure you heard them too um

SPEAKER_02 11:32

in a sense in this sense right because he

SPEAKER_02 11:35

he he may have had the content but do we not have to take the other elements into consideration i understand I understand he may have known his stuff, but

SPEAKER_02 11:41

but you're still willing to give him a dub? You're asking us what's the content.

Carter 11:45

of all, we're about ready to bring back Chester.

Carter 11:48

So what we have to recognize here is that content,

Carter 11:54

even you're saying about content, you're saying, how did we fill the space? And clearly, clearly, Trudeau had one of the best performances tonight, and I would argue one of the best performances of his political career in terms of what he was actually saying.

Carter 12:09

He said it too fast, sure. You know, he didn't get any, his zingers didn't zing. But his content, I'm

Carter 12:17

I'm the biggest critic of Trudeau and his lack of content. But

Carter 12:22

But today, he was bang on.

Carter 12:24

The person who was suffering with content, the person who couldn't answer the questions that were asked of him,

Carter 12:29

the person who was talking out of both sides of his mouth was

Carter 12:34

He was going to balance the budget while

Carter 12:37

while spending whatever the hell he wanted to spend. And you know what the worst part about that is? I think the Canadian public are going to buy it.

Carter 12:44

It was bullshit extraordinaire.

Carter 12:46

But he was, because his content was crap. Trudeau's was great. Harper's is always great.

SPEAKER_02 12:53

Very interesting. I'm going to come back to that.

SPEAKER_02 12:55

Tell me more about connection. Another

SPEAKER_02 12:57

Another C word, right? Who had the

SPEAKER_02 13:00

the two ducks on connection and who was the one missing today? We saw a lot of

SPEAKER_02 13:04

of looking into the

SPEAKER_02 13:06

the living room, I'm talking to the Canadian family, I'm talking to the Canadian voter. Who connected best today in your mind? Well, Trudeau's

SPEAKER_00 13:12

Trudeau's connection was so on the nose and so forced. He literally turned to everyone and was like, I'm

SPEAKER_00 13:17

talking to you, the Canadian, right? And it was too much for me. I thought that the other two had a much more measured approach to it.

SPEAKER_00 13:25

Harper's the king of this. It actually drove me nuts in the last election.

SPEAKER_00 13:28

The camera angles were funny in 2011, and so you were always looking at people on the side. and then Harper would just swivel like his head, and he'd be looking at the camera, and he'd be talking to you.

SPEAKER_00 13:39

Mulcair did okay, too. I think you've got to give the douche to Trudeau.

SPEAKER_00 13:44

Got to give the

SPEAKER_00 13:45

the douche to Trudeau. Okay.

Carter 13:48

Well, I mean, there's

Carter 13:50

there's two parts of this. There's the tactical part of actually looking at the camera and actually doing the connection. So I didn't see that, right?

Carter 13:59

right? Because I was here. Yeah. But when

Carter 14:05

Harper had this kind of,

Carter 14:07

I don't even give a shit what these guys are saying, and then when he started talking,

Carter 14:13

he just swung into action and totally owned that space. Then you had Mulcair, who was kind of like,

Carter 14:21

I own this podium, take it from my cold, dead hand.

Carter 14:27

So I was kind of like, I'm like, I'm not really a big fan of either of those strategies. But

Carter 14:33

But then, in comes Trudeau.

Carter 14:36

It's insincere. It's the thing that I've been railing against Trudeau from the beginning, is you can't actually, you know.

Carter 14:53

I'm Justin Trudeau, and I'm going to be your

Carter 14:59

I don't know about that.

Carter 15:00

Come on, hang on. It gets better.

SPEAKER_02 15:09

on, hold on, hold on. So much to tease out of there, including that very creepy performance.

SPEAKER_02 15:15

Can someone vine that? Can we vine that?

SPEAKER_02 15:19

Wait, wait, wait. So connection is important. And I don't want to just simply gloss over that the look to the camera and the direct address of the Canadian family sitting at home is the only way to build connection. Or the Canadian family sitting in front of their computer on YouTube watching this debate is the only way to

SPEAKER_02 15:33

to build that family.

SPEAKER_00 15:36

I will say this, in all three of them's defense, how do you connect with people when your face is covered in graphics flying in from the Globe and Mail and a bell is going off every 30 seconds? Yeah,

Carter 15:46

It was a very, very

Carter 15:49

very bad debate. Can

Carter 15:51

Can we say that? And it's not about the

Carter 15:52

the performers. It was a badly structured debate.

Carter 15:57

There's a reason the

Carter 15:59

the hashtag globe debacle began to trend. It

Carter 16:05

And it's funny to me because I think they had all the elements, the technical production, all the

Carter 16:12

the pieces were there.

Carter 16:14

I didn't think the moderator in and of itself is enough to destroy a debate, but it didn't come off well. well and

Carter 16:24

inhibited the connection with the audience so the words that they were trying to connect with the things that they were trying to say to actually connect the people yeah

Carter 16:32

coupled with that the format technique of zooming

Carter 16:37

it was a really hard debate to get a grip on in order to get put your best self forward tell

SPEAKER_02 16:44

tell me about narrative right so all of the candidates

SPEAKER_02 16:47

candidates you know know, as strategists, you prepare your candidates to say things that

SPEAKER_02 16:52

that will have an

SPEAKER_02 16:53

an extension to what they were talking about before, but

SPEAKER_02 16:56

but will also have a shelf life afterwards, right? That it's not a non-sequitur that they say one time on a stage, but that they can also take with them, and they can make it a story, they can make it something that they pound the other candidates on post-debate. Who came in with the best narrative? Who were the two ducks? Who was the douche

SPEAKER_00 17:11

douche on narrative? Tom Mulcair, and

SPEAKER_00 17:12

and you have to give him credit. He stuck to that NDP line. He talked a lot about those prairie NDP governments and how they didn't run massive deficits it's not it's not your Ontarians New Democratic Party was essentially where he was going with that

SPEAKER_00 17:25

and Stephen Harper how

SPEAKER_00 17:27

how many times you could you you

SPEAKER_00 17:29

you would have been just on the floor wasted like

SPEAKER_00 17:33

this man right next to me if if you had had a drinking game of every time Stephen Harper said something along the the lines of we are in risky economic times i'm

SPEAKER_02 17:45

i'm sorry it was nine times the hecklers are fucking

SPEAKER_00 17:51

and and that's and that to me was from a narrative standpoint you're going to remember that right yeah so just a trudeau strong command of the facts did he weave them into a story i

SPEAKER_00 18:01

i don't think he did oh

Carter 18:04

mean i think you first of all have to recognize how good harper where he's at this. The

Carter 18:07

The tax cuts narrative, just absolutely perfect. You know, how many times did Thomas Mulcair vote against middle class tax cuts? He just banged on it. Right in there.

Carter 18:18

So I think he has to always get the duck for

Carter 18:25

Mulcair's narrative continues to confuse the hell out of me.

SPEAKER_00 18:28

Tell me why. Because

Carter 18:28

Because it's not consistent.

SPEAKER_00 18:31

It's not consistent with what you think Tom Mulcair's narrative No, he

Carter 18:35

he talks out of both sides of his mouth. He talks out of one side of his mouth. He doesn't know who the hell he is. But it's the right side

Carter 18:40

side of his mouth. And the beard covers everything. Right beard, man?

Carter 18:45

I mean, the beard is just hiding his massive insecurity.

SPEAKER_02 18:51

wait. We can see this. I'm sorry, sir, but you mean Tom Mulcair, not him. No,

Carter 18:55

No, it's this guy. This guy right here.

Carter 18:59

Yes, I mean Tom Mulcair.

SPEAKER_00 19:02

No, he's been very consistent from the start. He's been that kind of populist but fiscally responsible New Democrat. This is the brand he's wanted since day one.

SPEAKER_00 19:11

one. Oh, my God.

Carter 19:11

He just doesn't cost the stuff that costs money. We just ignore that stuff. So

SPEAKER_00 19:15

keep saying that, but what are we talking about? What are the big spending items that the NDP have been promising?

Carter 19:19

promising? I think that the big question is how are you going to deal with these taxes that you want to place on the society, and how much is that going to cost us overall?

SPEAKER_00 19:29

are you, Stephen Harper? What's

Carter 19:30

What's the answer to the question?

SPEAKER_00 19:32

like what's the big spending project i've

SPEAKER_02 19:35

i've lost track of both of you okay

SPEAKER_02 19:38

closing there really wasn't any sort of close no what the hell

SPEAKER_00 19:41

hell was the second half yeah that was weird the second half was bad the audience here was turning against a screen they couldn't hear you but like they were yeah

Carter 19:49

but i'm saying like this you were kind of shaking your head but i'm saying how bad the debate was and now you're going oh no the second half was bad so

Carter 19:56

so So was the first half.

SPEAKER_02 20:00

Talk to me about the closing. Talk to me about the closing or lack of closing. In a debate like this where you don't have the time to do

SPEAKER_02 20:06

do what Carter just did with this theatrical performance a few seconds ago,

SPEAKER_02 20:10

interpreting Justin Trudeau, if you don't have time to do that with scripted words that you can close with, who

SPEAKER_02 20:17

who kind of pulled together some lack of closing, some type of closing? Who pulled it together today for you?

SPEAKER_00 20:26

thought Mulcair did pretty well at the end. When it was his one-on-one thing, he went on a... He had this weird page-turning moment. Do you guys remember? He was talking,

SPEAKER_02 20:33

and then it was like,

SPEAKER_00 20:35

know, like, insert cassette upside down.

SPEAKER_00 20:40

But beyond that, I thought it was pretty solid, and it was a good synopsis of what he needed to synthesize.

SPEAKER_00 20:47

The other guys, I didn't see that. Really? If

Carter 20:49

we were wondering which Corey Hogan was going to show up here, the

Carter 20:53

orange apologist is here the orange

Carter 20:56

orange apologist has shown up again

SPEAKER_00 20:58

again I don't know about that it

SPEAKER_02 20:59

it makes me happy

Carter 21:02

it's consistency and I like that from you

Carter 21:05

did any of them do a good job right

Carter 21:07

right I mean Harper again you have to say Harper does a good job because

Carter 21:11

because it's consistency he doesn't have to weave a new narrative because it's the exact same narrative that was being done really for the last three or four months nice and clean so every answer he gave could have been his closing statement I don't think Will Kerr was this strong I actually quite like Justin Trudeau and his answers and his long form answers today I thought his long form answers again most of the time I'm so used to hearing over rehearsed over delivered lines that it was just really refreshing today to hear him even rush

Carter 21:45

I'm getting my douche to the beard this guy

SPEAKER_00 21:53

i'm gonna give i'm gonna give my douche to justin trudeau because his closing was so bad last debate it carries over okay

Carter 22:03

yeah you know what i can get behind okay

SPEAKER_02 22:06

that's one extended douche for justin trudeau um

SPEAKER_02 22:11

okay we'll get over last time we dig into that well okay i promise it's like Like, not all the segments were like that.

Carter 22:17

don't do that. I was drinking.

SPEAKER_02 22:20

Wait, was it the word well that got you? No, it was the extended

SPEAKER_02 22:24

Okay, tie it together for me. Lots of ducks, lots of douches. But, but, but, but, this is the point I was trying to get to earlier. Is,

SPEAKER_02 22:32

you know, you talked about Justin Trudeau having good content, yet both of you were not so hot on his cadence, his comfort, his connection.

SPEAKER_02 22:39

At the end of the day, which

SPEAKER_02 22:40

which one of these that I just talked to you about, you know, we have got comfort, cadence, the lines.

SPEAKER_02 22:45

Connection, closing, narrative. Which one matters? Which one is the takeaway in your mind at the end of the day? That if you don't deliver or you're lukewarm on everything else, that this one you need to nail.

SPEAKER_02 22:57

Nothing that you said.

SPEAKER_00 23:01

Well, then you have to give it to either Mulcair or Harper.

Carter 23:05

You know what? No, you don't. Because, again, you

Carter 23:08

you were talking about today. Do you mind if I quote you? you

Carter 23:11

you said that there was a low bar and he just had to kind of get over it.

Carter 23:15

Justin Trudeau had the lowest expectations. He got over those expectations. Everybody knew that today's debate was not going to be his strength. And yet he held his own. And because he didn't lose, he won. And because Harper didn't win, he

SPEAKER_00 23:31

is quoting me from CBC, so I'm going to quote him now. And I'm going to say... What

Carter 23:35

What a love him.

SPEAKER_00 23:37

This is so inside baseball. that the only two people who could have possibly won that debate were Mulcair or Harper because they were the only ones with a mastery of all of the elements. You

Carter 23:47

You know what? I did say that.

Carter 23:50

hold on. I was so wrong three hours ago. Okay.

SPEAKER_02 23:57

Your humility is baffling, by the way.

SPEAKER_02 24:02

I don't think I've gotten to the answer that I want yet. What the hell? Is this your podcast? Yes?

SPEAKER_02 24:08

Some may say so.

SPEAKER_02 24:11

Most may say so. Okay, hold on, hold on, because I don't think we're totally there, because you're

SPEAKER_02 24:16

you're giving it to two separate people. Is that what I'm hearing? Who am I hearing you saying, Corey?

SPEAKER_00 24:21

Well, I'm just saying that when you take it all and its sum of its parts and its whole, this was a two-way fight. This was a blue-orange fight with another guy who had really good content, but frankly, if he had stayed home and live-tweeted it, like Elizabeth May, I probably would have felt the exact same way about it.

SPEAKER_02 24:40

So then tell me, that brings me to a broader question on expectations.

SPEAKER_02 24:44

The expectations for the debate was the guy with the Masters of Economics and 10 years of being Prime Minister under his belt needed to absolutely murder this debate.

SPEAKER_02 24:52

Did he do that? No, he did not do that. So then how does Justin Trudeau become your winner automatically

Carter 24:57

when Tom Mulcair's the guy? Tom Mulcair, first of all, he just angers me. Can you not sense that?

Carter 25:06

i mean i think that justin i had zero expectation of justin trudeau going into this debate less than zero him showing up and being able to utter entire phrases centered around infrastructure impressed me cory we're

SPEAKER_02 25:20

we're the expectations that let's be let's be clear this is a guy who's putting out an infrastructure plan that's going to be the largest in canadian history he's speaking on stop saying

SPEAKER_00 25:28

okay everybody's saying that they got to stop saying in that. We're talking in real terms, but Canadians used to spend way more on infrastructure. In the 1950s, we spent 3% of our federal GDP on infrastructure.

SPEAKER_00 25:39

These assholes are talking about 0.5 or 0.8% of the GDP.

Carter 25:51

I've got to be honest with you, my respect for this audience has completely gone to the floor.

Carter 25:56

I mean, I was really expecting a level a little geekiness, but you guys have just brought it all.

SPEAKER_02 26:06

don't know why you pointed to me so aggressively when you're like, these assholes.

SPEAKER_02 26:11

These assholes are ruining my show.

SPEAKER_02 26:14

Hold on. Yeah. Go

SPEAKER_00 26:17

How did he do? He did okay.

SPEAKER_00 26:18

He is Trudeau. Trudeau did okay.

SPEAKER_00 26:22

Harper did as we expected, no better. Mulcair is the only one who exceeded expectations by a measurable amount. He's the only guy who looked like a prime minister up there Who didn't look like a prime minister before tonight Sure,

SPEAKER_00 26:32

cut off his beard

SPEAKER_02 26:34

segue Next segment, just

SPEAKER_02 26:43

It's so easy to please all of you My job is so easy Like think of a couple of puns Show up here, it's great Okay, you

SPEAKER_02 26:51

you have the opportunity During this debate Carter, you're actually there So suppose you're working for all three of these candidates candidates. Put yourself in that position. It would never happen. But put yourself in the position. You're working for the candidates.

SPEAKER_02 27:03

What do you go mid-debate and whisper to them? Other than the fact that this debate totally sucks and you should leave right away. I would whisper, hey, am I on camera

SPEAKER_02 27:12

Because there were no breaks. There were no commercial breaks. That's true. And that's very different from the McLean's

SPEAKER_02 27:18

have that opportunity. What, if you have that opportunity

SPEAKER_02 27:21

opportunity to do, do you say to Tom Mulcair mid-debate? Corey, I'll start with you.

SPEAKER_00 27:26

think it's stay the course because I'll tell you I thought his second half his tone started to slide away from him he's lucky it ended when it did we didn't get back into full quaaludes Tommy but we were starting we were moving we were slipping there it's past his bedtime

SPEAKER_00 27:41

sleep early that's why I shaved mine

SPEAKER_02 27:44

what would I say

Carter 27:45

say to Mulcair yeah what

SPEAKER_02 27:45

what would you say to Mulcair

Carter 27:47

shave your beard no I think what I would say what

Carter 27:51

what I'd say to Mulcair I'm actually the reason That's the reason why Zayn shaved his beard. It's what happened. You're going to have a lynch mob. I know. Like hipsters standing outside the door.

SPEAKER_02 28:02

Don't scare me. Hipsters. I tried to go with hipster, but it looked too religious. It was really religious. So I went for hipster, and my beard was like, oh, you mean religious. And I'm like, no, I mean hipster. And they're like, no, you mean religious. And then they had

Carter 28:18

If I was whispering advice to Mulcair, I would just probably go to him and say, Okay, we've got a good character now. It's neither Angry Tom nor is it Quaaludes Tom. I need you to hold this character, and I need you to remember him for the next 36 days. Because the character that Thomas Mulcair has been playing has not been the right character. And he doesn't know who he is. My ongoing point about Thomas Mulcair is he doesn't know who he is. And I actually quite enjoyed who he was in the first half of the debate. He did slide back into Quaaludes Tommy, on me, especially on the cassette clip in the conclusion. That

SPEAKER_02 28:56

That was the middle of it for you. Justin Trudeau, you have the opportunity to tell him something during the middle of the debate. Slow down.

SPEAKER_00 29:04

If you say two-thirds as much, and you just don't get that final point, fine. But right now, you look like you are way too desperate for this job, and way too worried you don't look like you're up for it. Carter,

SPEAKER_02 29:15

Carter, is desperate the right word?

Carter 29:16

word? Is that what you'd go with?

Carter 29:17

I wouldn't even go a step further. He was almost panicked. I

Carter 29:21

mean there was a sense of oh my god I gotta get all this in and you never have to get it all in you

Carter 29:26

you only need to start just the tip

SPEAKER_02 29:34

that's our show that's our show we'll leave on that I know

SPEAKER_02 29:40

and you know what tips is plural so I don't know just the tips

SPEAKER_00 29:44

tips well there's three of us

Carter 29:52

It's always Corey at the live show, isn't it? That's funny. No, I mean, first of all, and I'd also remind him to breathe.

Carter 30:04

Breathe. Breathe heavy and just put the tip in.

Carter 30:08

horrible? Who did this segment?

Carter 30:10

No, he was stopping breathing and he was talking too fast. So he needed to slow down his speech and he needed to increase his breath.

SPEAKER_00 30:18

that's a good point. He was doing these gas breaths. Yeah, and

Carter 30:20

and he did do a lot of living in the top half of the songs, which is when you're not breathing properly, your voice will move, so you can move your voice down lower into your body, or you can move the voice higher into your head,

Carter 30:32

and you sound like Justin Trudeau sometimes.

Carter 30:35

So you have to be careful where you're putting your voice. Stephen

SPEAKER_02 30:37

Stephen Harper, mid-debate, you have the opportunity. What do you tell him?

SPEAKER_00 30:45

Put down the gun.

SPEAKER_00 30:46

No, no. Honestly, I think it was be very careful because you were getting – mid-debate was an interesting point because that was right around when we started talking about refugees in Syria as

SPEAKER_00 30:57

as a tangent from immigration. I thought his worst part of the debate by far was when Stephen Harper started talking about immigration because he sounded so heartless, like these people were just items on a ledger. This is the good economic case for this type of immigration. Yeah,

Carter 31:11

Yeah, but neither Mulcair nor Trudeau really took advantage of it the way they did. I

SPEAKER_00 31:15

I thought Trudeau had an okay rejoinder.

Carter 31:16

rejoinder. He did, but it was not nearly as good as I thought it could be. Now, before you leave us off of this topic... No, no, no, I've got more on this, but go

SPEAKER_02 31:21

go ahead, yeah. I

Carter 31:22

I want to give an example of what happens when this actually does happen.

SPEAKER_02 31:26

Yeah, do it. So

Carter 31:26

So in the leaders' debate, Alison Redford, Doug Horner, and Gary Marr in 2011,

Carter 31:34

we had commercial breaks because it was broadcast on Global, and they need to make money. So we had commercial breaks during the leadership debate, and we sent in Alison Redford's EA, and all his job was like so we didn't send in a strategist at all no but

SPEAKER_00 31:47

but that's that was the same with me in the 2012 you

SPEAKER_00 31:50

you don't go in because you're just gonna you send

Carter 31:51

send in a junior person whose job it is to say i think

Carter 31:55

think you're doing a really good job and that's all they say no

Carter 31:59

no i think really you're

SPEAKER_02 32:01

impressed so if steven

SPEAKER_00 32:02

steven or i had gone into the room we would have done this

Carter 32:05

doing great bud you

SPEAKER_00 32:06

you know that would have been totally different all in our face and we would have been so clearly unimpressed because you're you're by the way when you're in that role you can't help but notice every one of your candidates ticks every time they've done something you've told them a million times in debate prep not to do and uh it's very tough from the inside because you always think that your candidate did poor always

Carter 32:24

always and then so so then in comes gary mars people and gary's mars people brought in post-it notes and

Carter 32:30

and put post-it notes on his podium of things that he was supposed to read and then they would say think like they would give him lines i want you to say this i want you to say that you got to do this you got to be a little little more relaxed you're a little bit sweaty and i don't know if you remember watching gary mar he

Carter 32:45

like dissolved into a puddle of his own sweat by

Carter 32:49

by the end of the debate and it was it was good though because um doug horner picked it up and put it in his hair that

SPEAKER_00 32:56

that is that is unusual that is that's it

Carter 32:59

it was really wrong but

Carter 33:02

seriously go back and find the tape you'll

Carter 33:04

you'll see it and so

Carter 33:06

so when you do have that yes i'm sure they will yeah

Carter 33:08

yeah they'll go back when

Carter 33:10

when you when you do see that happen during a debate you have to understand that the person in the debate is beyond your saving you

Carter 33:17

you can't actually change the course of the debate

SPEAKER_00 33:20

this plane is going to land or crash and you're not going to talk them onto the ground safely or not it's in their hands okay so

SPEAKER_02 33:25

so let's let's move on to what you can do afterwards right so you're you're you're you're You're spinning now for

SPEAKER_02 33:32

for each three of these candidates after the debate.

SPEAKER_02 33:35

What is your key message that you're trying to pump out to the media, pump out to the electorate after this debate's over? Now it's in your control. Now it's in your candidates' control.

SPEAKER_02 33:44

If you are framing a key message on the fly or a set of key messages on the fly for your candidates, what

SPEAKER_02 33:49

what would you do? Corey, I'll start with you and whichever candidate you want to. Let's

SPEAKER_00 33:52

Let's talk about Tom Mulcair, because I think my message, if I was Tom Mulcair's spinners, was we

SPEAKER_00 33:59

we don't like this current prime minister, as Canadians. Canadians have rejected this current prime minister's failed economic policies, and there was only one prime minister in waiting on the stage today.

Carter 34:09

Yeah, and I would actually spin it a little bit more refined. I'd say that there were only two people who could carry an economic message. It was me and the prime minister of Canada, and it doesn't matter what he says, the people of Canada are done with Prime Minister Stephen Harper.

SPEAKER_00 34:22

can't say Canada like that commercial on CBC. Good,

Carter 34:25

Good, I say it right.

Carter 34:28

It's on CBC, I'm saying it right. But to me, the Thomas Mulcair explain is very easy. Because the expectation was there were only two people who could talk about economics. And all I would do is say, you're right, there were only two people who could talk about economics. And they don't like the other guy, so it's going to be us. If this election is about the economy, and it is, then we're going to win.

SPEAKER_00 34:48

Well, that's just it. We've said this for a long time, but ultimately this fight is not between Harper and either of those guys. Harper's got his base. He's going to hold his base. It'll move up and down a bit. But we've seen the polls. Even when we thought he's down a bit, he moves back up to 30. He's got 30 percent of the vote.

SPEAKER_00 35:04

But we have seen a lot more movement between the New Democrats and the liberals. And if he can win that race, if Mulcair can say, I was clearly superior to Justin Trudeau in the fight to fight Stephen Harper, he will become the next prime minister. So

Carter 35:17

So then the flip side is we have to do Trudeau's spin. How do you

Carter 35:24

Listen, there is no question that Stephen Harper and Thomas Mulcair were the favorites talking about the economy. But

Carter 35:29

But what we were able to do... You'd acknowledge that? I would not, but

Carter 35:33

on. I would, because they were. Go repeat the charge.

Carter 35:38

Yeah, that's fair. But we're repeating the charge so we can elevate ourselves. I mean, I think that Trudeau won. I'm probably alone. alone.

Carter 35:46

So what I need to do is actually get out there and say, you

Carter 35:49

you know, he was in this debate right from the beginning. This was his best debate performance and he's only getting better. He's the only man on that stage who got better, you know, between the McLean's debate and this debate and we can't wait for the next debate and we're going to do it. There'll be a debate on foreign policy and we want a debate on health care and we want, because we're now going to change from, we have to change the whole channel.

Carter 36:12

The liberals have to change the channel if they want to win from the the economy to something else. Anything else. If they leave it on the economy, Justin Trudeau does not become Prime Minister.

SPEAKER_00 36:21

Well, and let's be fair to Justin Trudeau. This was an economic debate. He was kind of forced to be on the economy. But

Carter 36:26

But he now has to change.

SPEAKER_00 36:27

And that starts with the spin

Carter 36:28

spin out of today's

SPEAKER_00 36:29

today's debate. I think there's more winning spin for Justin Trudeau there. And I think you just say, look, Canadians are so sick of this politics of division and these angry people who just try to force each other down. And that's That's all that you're hearing from Mulcair and Harper. I was the substance guy. I would take that one thing I think he did very well, which was content, and say, I have a plan. These

SPEAKER_00 36:51

These guys had soundbites. So hold on. You know, Justin Trudeau has been— That's a good soundbite.

SPEAKER_02 36:55

That's a great soundbite.

SPEAKER_02 36:57

Justin Trudeau has been charged

SPEAKER_02 36:59

charged in the past for being the guy with a lack of content, almost to the point where his campaign has almost accepted it.

SPEAKER_02 37:05

Can he now turn that negative into a positive?

SPEAKER_00 37:08

You know, this is like 93. the Liberals had Jean Chrétien, who was not seen as like an academic heavyweight. Let's not forget that at all. And how they rebuffed that was by pulling out what was at the time the most robust policy document Canadians had ever seen in the Red Book. Really long policy document, had policy on everything. It was about a plan. It was about this notion that there was a path forward for the country that a lot of thought had been given into. Actually, there was a lot of parallels between the

SPEAKER_00 37:33

the Chrétien election and now, save for the fact that Chrétien got to become prime minister.

SPEAKER_00 37:39

right? And there is a real opportunity for Trudeau to take a few more pages out of that book. He doesn't need necessarily to blow us all away. He just needs us to think that the country's safe in his hands.

SPEAKER_02 37:57

got one liberal candidate in the front row.

SPEAKER_02 38:01

Why don't you doorknock? hockey yeah

SPEAKER_02 38:04

go id some votes it's

SPEAKER_02 38:06

it's too late um stephen

SPEAKER_02 38:10

what would you spin the stephen harper story post debate uh

SPEAKER_00 38:14

uh career politician just not ready his messaging is perfect for your for for stephen harper no i'm saying he's saying mulcair career politician justin trudeau just not ready because everything is right on brand with how they've been trying to position Actually, I will say, the Conservatives, their attacks are exactly the attacks that I would make tonight. They're perfect for both of them.

Carter 38:35

I would also add in, it's actually disappointing that two people who are trying to run to be the Prime Minister of the country showed such a lack of understanding of the overall economy. I'm very disappointed with that. See,

SPEAKER_00 38:45

look at that. Is there a Conservative candidate in here, too?

Carter 38:49

We actually got the,

Carter 38:49

the, there were four whole Conservatives in here, which is pretty impressive compared

Carter 38:54

compared to last time. That's

SPEAKER_02 38:56

That is indeed true. Hold

SPEAKER_02 38:57

on. Talk to me about this a little bit more because I think you brought it up and I think it warrants

SPEAKER_02 39:01

some in-depth analysis or at least some analysis. In-depth, maybe not with you guys.

SPEAKER_02 39:07

I don't know why I just threw you out of the bus.

SPEAKER_02 39:09

Tell me about the whole notion of compassion and changing the channel. How do you do it successfully from here on in? And is Justin Trudeau the only guy that needs to do it? Or is Tom Mulcair also in a position where he needs to change the channel as well? I

SPEAKER_00 39:23

I think one of the reasons Carter has such cognitive dissonance about Tom Mulcair right now is because the NDP get a pass on that social element. And I think that Tom Mulcair does not need to change the channel. I think he's picking up economic votes in the center, and that's exactly what he needs to do.

Carter 39:37

Yeah, I think that Thomas Mulcair is on the channel he wants to be on. Economy. He wants to continue

Carter 39:43

on that. Now, even having said that, I think that the only people who listen to the strategist, you know, the liberal special, other than you people, none of you. Listen to the, it's good to know. I think the NDP, listen, because they've been rolling out health care policies for the last, you know, this week. Yeah.

Carter 40:00

And I think if they continue to do that, I think they're really on a really strong policy kind of balance if they can figure out the leader.

Carter 40:09

Because I still think that the leader does not appeal to me. There is no reason right now why top of small care shouldn't be at 40%. Fascinating. Except that no one likes him.

SPEAKER_00 40:20

Yourself included. There's nothing to bear that out. He has very high popularity, in other words, when you go into that.

Carter 40:24

that. Oh, he's really popular, but no one wants to vote for him. Next

SPEAKER_02 40:28

Okay, local sponsors. Now, we did this last time, and it went swimmingly.

SPEAKER_02 40:33

When you say swimmingly,

Carter 40:34

swimmingly, do you mean the worst possible segment, and now we have to do it again? Yeah,

Carter 40:38

Okay. We're going to

SPEAKER_02 40:38

to try to up you. So here's what we're going to do. We have no

SPEAKER_02 40:42

no sponsors whatsoever, but the Strategist Podcast would like to sponsor some local businesses. So what we

SPEAKER_02 40:47

we have done is we've found a couple of Kijiji ads that hopefully

SPEAKER_02 40:50

hopefully through the listenership today in the live audience, as well as the thousands of people listening to this podcast, will hopefully help these people sell their products. Cool?

SPEAKER_00 40:59

Yeah, well, we don't have a choice. You don't have a choice.

SPEAKER_02 41:01

Take one and pass it along. There you go. What did you get?

SPEAKER_00 41:08

I don't even know what, okay.

SPEAKER_00 41:12

Baby Bjorn toilet seat.

SPEAKER_00 41:14

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SPEAKER_00 41:21

By the way, these are real Kijiji ads No kids fell in the toilet with this one Unlike our other one that we threw out Poor kid

SPEAKER_00 41:30

Wait, hold on There

SPEAKER_00 41:31

There is an open house for this baby Bjorn toilet seat

SPEAKER_00 41:36

On Saturday, September 19th So coming up From

SPEAKER_00 41:38

9am to 4pm And by the way, if you can't get Saturday The open house for the toilet seat continues to Sunday Sunday, 1

SPEAKER_00 41:45

1 p.m. to 4 p.m., or

SPEAKER_00 41:48

or you can arrange to pick it up if you're not into the whole open house scene.

SPEAKER_00 41:51

If the ad is still on, this item is available. The ad will be removed when sold unless no one wants it. LOL, caps.

SPEAKER_00 42:00

11 visits. It's in Ranch Ridge, which is in the northwest near Ranchlands, I'd imagine, or in Ranch, I don't know. 10 bucks. That's That's a good price for baby Bjorn boots.

Carter 42:22

is just the best for me. I love this. Selling three hats that I, lowercase I, don't wear. Too small for my head.

Carter 42:32

Why did you buy three?

Carter 42:37

I don't know why.

Carter 42:38

There are three different ads.

Carter 42:40

The Adidas is large, extra large. Other two are one size fits all, except for

Carter 42:48

me and my giant melon, which

Carter 42:50

which is obviously not the case, LOL. There it is.

Carter 42:55

Prices for all three. Anyways, text,

Carter 42:59

text, call. I won't read out the number. That would be bad.

Carter 43:02

And check out my other ads. Thanks. Thanks.

Carter 43:06

And it's only 20 bucks for all three hats, guys. So it's a Flames hat, an Adidas hat, and a Stan Peters hat.

SPEAKER_00 43:15

Local. Local sports. Listen, this is just Zane's creepy power move. He forces us to read things and shows everybody in the audience that he's actually in control. Yeah.

SPEAKER_02 43:25

When the segments aren't going well, I just give you one of those and be like, read for me, bitch.

SPEAKER_02 43:32

Next segment! statement titillating

SPEAKER_02 43:33

titillating everyone's private sector okay

SPEAKER_02 43:38

there was one well today that i could think of over and over okay

SPEAKER_02 43:44

part of what what today has to be is is continuing forward we talked about the post-debate spin but

SPEAKER_02 43:51

but let's talk broadly about the campaign going forward and how it relates to the individual voter who

SPEAKER_02 43:56

who they need to go after the regions etc so let's first start with With Tom Mulcair, what

SPEAKER_02 44:02

what is the impact of today's debate? Let's talk about impact because we haven't done that yet.

SPEAKER_02 44:07

And what is the flame he carries over? And we'll get into regions and how he targets it going forward. But, Corey, I want to go with you first, and then I'll go with you, Carter. I

SPEAKER_00 44:14

I think it was a really good night for Tom Mulcair. And he's going to want to coast on this and go a bit further and ride like a warm, happy analysis wave for the next bit. I'm going to jump to Trudeau for a second. Do it. Because it's just worth noting, Trudeau needs to change the channel tomorrow. He needs to pivot out of this pretty quickly. Stop talking about the economy. Because if we're talking about the economy through the weekend, if all the analysts are talking about the debate and

SPEAKER_00 44:39

and the debate on the economy through the weekend, it's going to be a bad weekend for Trudeau.

SPEAKER_00 44:44

And that's not lethal. But, you know, you don't want those polls to come out Monday with a big mulcair bump. Because this is it. This is the last English language debate. We are running out of big moments. There's the holidays. There's Thanksgiving. But this is one of the last big moments. to really start shifting large amounts of people.

SPEAKER_02 44:59

Carter, Tom Mulcair, and a question added on to you. Was this debate big for him? Did he need this? And

SPEAKER_02 45:05

And if he did, what was the impact of it going forward? Let's

Carter 45:08

Let's be clear. All three leaders needed this debate. Okay. Because all three leaders are stuck at 30%. We are not seeing any movement in the polls. Even last week's, you know, the Tories are collapsing. Just jokes.

Carter 45:21

Yeah, kidding. Oh, polls were wrong. Shocking. So we need to, they all needed this debate. None of them got the debate, in my mind. I still think that they need to change, the Liberals will need to change the channel. The way that they change, I don't think they need to do it tomorrow. I think that will look desperate. But I think that if they start doing it on Monday, that will work. And I think that Mulcair needs to get his ass to Ontario. He needs to go back to Ontario and see what he can get on

Carter 45:50

on the ground. So drill

Carter 45:52

for me on that.

SPEAKER_00 45:53

that. I called this a big moment, one of the big moments. Trudeau needs to make this not a big moment. He needs to make this a blip in the electoral calendar. And so that's why I think he needs to change the channel. He needs to make

Carter 46:02

make this into the McLean's debate. McLean's debate had no impact whatsoever on the polls. He needs to turn it into that. I'm going to get

SPEAKER_02 46:09

get to Trudeau. I want to finish up on Mulcair first. Carter, you're saying he needs to go to Ontario. Tell me why. What's in Ontario for Tom Mulcair? And how does he leverage this as an example?

SPEAKER_00 46:17

example? The greatest city in Canada. The

Carter 46:18

greatest city in Canada.

SPEAKER_00 46:20

the most important city yeah

Carter 46:22

yeah and 123 seats yeah

Carter 46:25

so what it what has to happen right away i mean we know that mulcair is super strong in quebec yeah

Carter 46:31

we know that he's he's got a little bit of something going on how do you like

SPEAKER_00 46:34

that dig by the way of him saying you know it was essentially trudeau's last vote because he's he's essentially threatening that he's going to win trudeau's seat in papina yeah

Carter 46:41

yeah i'm not sure yeah they believe

SPEAKER_00 46:42

that's what they did they

Carter 46:44

they released the poll today, too, that ended the NDP up by 10 points in Papineau.

SPEAKER_00 46:51

Oh, I do. You're all wrong. We'll talk about it later. Let

Carter 46:54

Let me tell you why Corey's wrong.

Carter 46:57

If the poll is conducted by the party, never believe it, unless it's my party that I'm working with.

SPEAKER_00 47:07

It's going to be a close night. I think Trudeau is going to have a bit of an ailment. I think he can win it, but I believe the poll. I do.

SPEAKER_02 47:15

Okay. Justin Trudeau, let's get on that, right? He wants to change the channel. Are we in agreement on that, or are we in disagreement?

SPEAKER_00 47:22

No, I think we changed the channel. We disagree on the timing. He doesn't want to look desperate. I think when you already look desperate, what's no harm, no foul?

Carter 47:29

Oh, he doesn't look desperate.

Carter 47:30

He did much better than expected on this. He's going to be just fine. You know what he needs to do, though? So again, it's kind of about where do you want to go next? Do you want to go back to places that you need to gain seats? So Mulcair has an opportunity, kind of a clean slate in Ontario. He wasn't really making huge headway there. If he goes there now, he might be able to ride something. If Trudeau goes to Vancouver in the lower mainland, he

Carter 47:53

he could solidify a lot of things there. The difference is that Trudeau was in play in the lower mainland,

Carter 47:58

and Mulcair wasn't necessarily in play in a lot of places in Ontario.

Carter 48:03

So putting himself on the ground in Vancouver, Trudeau will solidify base, but also look like he's gaining.

Carter 48:10

so he doesn't if he was to go to like atlantic canada and solidify things he'd look absolutely as desperate as cory is portraying no

SPEAKER_00 48:18

no no no that's that's an entrenchment and i don't think anybody would suggest that he needs to talk about social issues still very

SPEAKER_02 48:24

regionally i think car makes an interesting point regionally does he need to solidify right now post debate thump is it for solidification for justin trudeau or is it for reaching out to new voters as he changes the channel oh

SPEAKER_00 48:34

oh it's got to be reaching out because any party that's entrenching is losing at this point yeah

Carter 48:39

yeah i mean but i'd be reaching out in a very comfortable place you know i'm not going to be reaching i'm not going to go to edmonton you know what i mean yeah i'm not going to get justin trudeau going to edmonton to campaign for randy well

SPEAKER_00 48:50

well given how harper's been talking about the alberta economy i assume that's because you're worried there's like a mad max scene up there now

Carter 48:56

well you know what's amazing did

Carter 48:59

did anybody else think that up that him talking about the alberta economy was like totally bullshit pandering.

SPEAKER_02 49:08

was the reaction in the room? I mean, no one said anything, but what was the real reaction? No one said anything.

Carter 49:13

Again, we're not allowed to make noise, so of course we're very rule-abiding.

Carter 49:17

But you could see people

Carter 49:19

really concentrate on their Twitter. No, and I was sitting beside Chief of the Chief of

SPEAKER_00 49:25

of Staff to the Mayor of Calgary. Yeah, Chief

Carter 49:26

Chief of Staff to the Mayor, and

Carter 49:28

he kind of stopped and looked up and went, no and and there was a lot of of no in that room um

Carter 49:38

first of all i don't get the whole tying it to corporate tax thing yeah

Carter 49:42

i mean if corporations aren't making money they

Carter 49:45

they don't pay income tax so does

Carter 49:48

does he think we're that fucking stupid like i just get really angry with

Carter 49:53

pardon me he wasn't for albertans

SPEAKER_00 49:56

albertans who wasn't for albertans no it wasn't for that statement the comment was not for albertans because albertans all know better we we were here it wasn't so long ago but

SPEAKER_00 50:04

like the reason we went into that early election was we had jim prentice saying we're going into like doom

SPEAKER_00 50:10

doom and gloom times right and so then to flip on a dime and be like oh

SPEAKER_00 50:14

that's all the ndp's fault how does that follow nobody actually believes that do they such

Carter 50:19

such an ass so

SPEAKER_00 50:19

so tell me is

Carter 50:21

such an ass you're

SPEAKER_02 50:24

you're done you're done okay so tell me about you you were on harper tell me about him a little bit more because if you are using this debate going forward for him

Carter 50:34

don't like you saying on harper with

SPEAKER_02 50:35

with that up there

SPEAKER_02 50:39

is he using this going

SPEAKER_02 50:41

going forward has his ceiling dropped cory like has has the accessible voter for steven harper just gone lower and

SPEAKER_00 50:48

and lower yeah i think he's in real trouble uh and it doesn't have anything to do with his performance tonight it has everything to do with his performance in the past couple of weeks when

SPEAKER_00 50:56

when he sees those dips in the polls uh he sacrificed in my opinion uh stephen harper has sacrificed uh the ceiling like what his vote can get to to get back up to the 30 that he was at before by doing some of the ugliest pandering i've seen on issues like syria right this suggestion that uh you know if we had if we followed what the un requested from us uh that

SPEAKER_00 51:18

that asis would be in our streets is is crazy it's It's offensive to people who work in our border security because they know about it. Yeah.

SPEAKER_00 51:25

And I just don't, but it's pretty clear at this point. Many polls have shown there's a bit of a tie between his position there and how he's managed to bounce back up to three. Carter, has

SPEAKER_02 51:34

has the ceiling decreased, and what does he need to do going forward? The ceiling has collapsed on Harper. If

SPEAKER_02 51:39

If you look at the undecided notes. And explain maybe to the audience or to the listeners, ceiling, just so we're all on the same page.

Carter 51:44

page. So what we're looking at

Carter 51:46

at is who can we actually go and access? So, for example, do we think that the Conservative Party can go and access voters that are currently leaning or voting for the NDP?

Carter 51:58

Can they go and access voters that are currently leaning, you know, thinking about voting or leaning towards the Liberals? Maybe. What about the undecideds? And what we're seeing is that the undecideds continue to be leaning toward, you know, thinking about the Liberals or thinking about the NDP, not really considering the Conservatives. and an NDP voter is not considering the conservatives, liberal voters kind of maybe sometimes are thinking about the conservatives. Yeah,

SPEAKER_00 52:23

Yeah, it really depends where you are. It really depends regionally

Carter 52:24

regionally where you are. But for the most part, the

Carter 52:28

the votes he has today are the only votes that are available to him. Why he's okay with that is

Carter 52:38

much more likely to vote than

Carter 52:40

than Trudeau's voter. right

Carter 52:41

right his voter is far more likely to vote even than mulcair's voter although mulcair has done a good job at getting across the spectrum yeah

SPEAKER_00 52:48

yeah he the thing that mulcair has done i think silently that many people don't appreciate is he kind of wins in all time zones he's he's got power across the country he's got you know strong organization across the country and across demographics so 18 to 24 they're voting for him 65 plus they're voting for him yeah

SPEAKER_00 53:07

and that um that gives him a a lot of protection against, you know, one region swinging against him or not. You know who doesn't have that protection at all right now is Justin Trudeau. Justin

Carter 53:17

Justin Trudeau is completely hung out on a very

SPEAKER_00 53:19

very small group of people who like him. He lives or dies by Ontario, BC youth voters. In fact, there

Carter 53:25

there was a County Confederation poll that came out yesterday.

Carter 53:28

yesterday. One of the downsides of that, if you look at the poll, the people who are most likely to vote Liberal for Matt Grant are younger. and

Carter 53:39

and his biggest problem is going to be the GOTV campaign getting older voters to the polls is going to be far more successful than getting younger voters to the polls even the Nenshi election, the great election where we finally engaged the younger people turns out that the younger people told their parents who to vote for and they didn't wind up voting themselves so if you are younger just force your friends to vote but I'm assuming if you're here you don't really have many friends

SPEAKER_00 54:10

what does it say hold

SPEAKER_02 54:13

that that took that took a little bit of a detour but i think that helps that helps understand the or helps us all understand the notion of the ceiling but take it back to harper how

SPEAKER_02 54:23

how does he rebuild

SPEAKER_02 54:24

rebuild that ceiling does he rebuild that you don't

Carter 54:28

the ceiling is either there or it's gone and when it's gone you go holy shit i hope voters come out.

Carter 54:34

So he is at this place where he has to hope that everyone who's going to vote for him doesn't leave

Carter 54:39

and it's just, they'd vote more. Let's be clear. So is he re-entrenching? Is he trying to get the base back? He has to. Well, no. Not get them back. He just needs to keep them on.

Carter 54:48

can't lose another vote.

SPEAKER_00 54:49

vote. I mean, I think he's re-entrenching and I stand by my comment. If you're re-entrenching, you're losing. He may be at 30% of decided voters right now, but there's 30-some percent of voters who are not decided. They're not decided between Mulcair Barrett and Trudeau, they've made up their mind about Harper. The only thing he has in his toolkit now, Stephen was talking about, is get out the vote. But the ugly side of that is keep the other guys' vote home. And we have some very big changes to the Election Act that are taking effect this year that if those changes were in effect last election, 700,000 Canadians would not have been able to vote the way they did last time. I'm not saying they wouldn't have ever been able to vote.

SPEAKER_00 55:26

But there are going to be a lot of people. people this is tell your friends this or tweet it because if you don't have friends at least the world will see it tell

SPEAKER_00 55:33

tell them to make sure their id is up to date they know the id rules and that there's a number of ways that they can actually prove who they are and where they live and to vote because what scares me truly

SPEAKER_00 55:42

truly scares me for this country is

SPEAKER_00 55:44

is that we are going to potentially wake up the day after the election and find out that voter turnout has plummeted and it's plummeted among the people who cared the most okay

SPEAKER_02 56:04

right on cue robotic um this

SPEAKER_02 56:07

this brings me to the big question right this brings me to the biggest question of this segment which is all

SPEAKER_02 56:12

all three parties 30 percent of the polls

SPEAKER_02 56:16

what is and is there a big move that one of them needs to make and should if you're advising them should they go for the fences right now and make a big move so that they can reach individual people

SPEAKER_00 56:26

people my bias is always against swinging for the fences you know what it's against

SPEAKER_02 56:29

against swinging for the

SPEAKER_00 56:30

the fences yeah people strike out when they swing for the fences they need to get some solid singles they gotta play some money ball they need to make some very reasonable moves that are gonna get them some modest gains and push forward you're saying that regardless

SPEAKER_02 56:41

of any party all

SPEAKER_00 56:41

all parties swinging for the fences is a bad idea I think

Carter 56:44

think we should do this all with sporting metaphors.

SPEAKER_00 56:46

I like it. You know, I

Carter 56:47

I mean, you have to keep the ball on the ground. You have to have the ball in possession. You have to make sure you're just always moving forward to keep your legs moving.

Carter 56:56

What sport are you describing?

Carter 56:58

Ultimately, it's a team game. It's not an individual sport. You have to remember that you can't go anywhere without your lineman.

SPEAKER_02 57:08

Great croquet reference. I don't know what sport you were talking about. There was like multiple sports you were discussing there. That was all

SPEAKER_02 57:15

Okay, great. All right, Stephen Carter with the long two.

SPEAKER_02 57:18

Stephen Carter with the long two. He has a basketball record for us. Is

Carter 57:24

No, but I want to just take one moment and explain one more thing about the ceiling and the poles and what that means for the big move. Yeah. Because if you're Mulcair and Trudeau, one

Carter 57:36

one of the things that we know is that the undecided segment

Carter 57:39

segment isn't going to break equal.

Carter 57:42

So right now, the pollsters are taking the undecideds out and pretending that they're going to play the same as all decided voters, and

Carter 57:49

that's incorrect in this model. We

Carter 57:52

We know that they are more likely to move to the NDP and to the Liberals, and less likely to move to the Conservatives. So what we're actually seeing is

Carter 58:00

is that the Liberals and the NDP are higher than 30%, because

Carter 58:05

because the undecideds will decide disproportionately to vote for them. and

Carter 58:09

and the Conservatives are lower

Carter 58:13

then it all gets all messed up again when we add in voter turnout probabilities so

Carter 58:17

so what you have to do if you're Mulcair or Trudeau is now get all of that undecided to break to you

Carter 58:24

so that's why I think Mulcair started to pull out the healthcare piece the social policy platform stuff and honest to God if Trudeau does not start talking about healthcare or some social issues shoes next week yeah

Carter 58:38

i'm going to find him he

SPEAKER_00 58:41

he posts his schedule daily it's fine you'll find him i

SPEAKER_00 58:44

can guarantee you one thing though i

SPEAKER_02 58:47

find him back in calgary

SPEAKER_00 58:48

oh okay well yeah

SPEAKER_02 58:51

yeah okay i'm i'm gonna i had a question but i'll move it on and we'll these are like drums yeah

SPEAKER_02 58:56

yeah you know what these are these are kind of weird these chairs by the way i i said i've

Carter 58:59

i've really had a hard time with it i keep farting and when i went these are

SPEAKER_02 59:04

are like if a serial killer had a salon in his basement. These are like the type of charity he'd have. Okay, last segment. Our over, under, and our lightning round. You guys ready? Oh yeah. Okay.

SPEAKER_02 59:15

The most annoying thing about this debate. Corey, you first. Ding that.

SPEAKER_02 59:25

The most annoying thing.

Carter 59:28

I wasn't allowed to say anything. I was like, just

Carter 59:31

just sitting there quietly.

SPEAKER_02 59:33

Over, under on six. Over, Over, under on six, Stephen Harper's debate performance tonight. Over.

SPEAKER_02 59:42

Oh, classy. I love it.

SPEAKER_02 59:47

You are the weakest link. Goodbye.

SPEAKER_02 59:51

Tom Mulcair's debate performance tonight. Over. Over on seven. Under.

SPEAKER_02 59:56

Justin Trudeau, over, under on five.

SPEAKER_00 1:00:01

Under. Wait, it's six, I guess. How does this work? How do numbers work?

SPEAKER_00 1:00:18

is difficult Giant applause line 80% of our listeners will not get These

SPEAKER_02 1:00:24

Describe the set in one word Scary

Carter 1:00:32

Oh, their set, not our set Sorry, I got confused

SPEAKER_02 1:00:40

You are Justin Trudeau Waking up after your debate performance tomorrow morning You go to your bedside and for some reason Whatsoever, you find a fortune cookie You open it up, what does it say, Corey?

SPEAKER_00 1:00:55

So for those who don't know, this is a segment we do Carter is terrible at it he's so bad at it the worst at it

SPEAKER_00 1:01:05

you've just increased expectations for yourself you do know that there is always a tomorrow until October 19th

SPEAKER_02 1:01:11

Carter what does Justin Trudeau's fortune cookie

Carter 1:01:14

the man with the hair has a hair's chance

SPEAKER_02 1:01:18

not bad not bad it's better

Carter 1:01:19

better than usual well it is better than usual you have to understand my expectations were very low Justin Trudeau style expectations

SPEAKER_02 1:01:28

Tom Mulcair finds a fortune cookie at his breakfast table tomorrow morning what does it say Corey

SPEAKER_00 1:01:33

hope your hand gets better from all the high fives you'll be getting

Carter 1:01:38

the fuck was that that was a total shill move by the way

Carter 1:01:46

Confucius says a man with a beard has too much to hide

SPEAKER_02 1:01:51

not bad oh really

Carter 1:01:52

good not bad really good

Carter 1:01:55

have been been practicing this shit every week hoping that he'd have the segment back and he hasn't had it till now stephen

SPEAKER_02 1:02:02

out for a walk with

SPEAKER_02 1:02:04

with his dog finds

SPEAKER_02 1:02:05

finds a fortune cookie on the ground picks it up he's

SPEAKER_02 1:02:09

he's like what is this thing he

SPEAKER_02 1:02:11

opens it cory what does it say nice

SPEAKER_00 1:02:16

don't know i actually i'm dry this

SPEAKER_00 1:02:19

this is your chance this is

Carter 1:02:20

is your chance my opportunity to really knock the ball out of the part that's right picking

Carter 1:02:26

up dog shit with one's bare hand is

Carter 1:02:29

is not economically sound

SPEAKER_02 1:02:33

who won this debate i

SPEAKER_02 1:02:35

i did oh no the leaders who won this debate oh

SPEAKER_00 1:02:39

oh i think the media consortium because

SPEAKER_00 1:02:41

because now we're all saying wouldn't that be nice again carver

SPEAKER_00 1:02:46

won this debate uh

Carter 1:02:47

uh i honestly don't think that i mean i think that no one won the the debate. I think that you could make a case for everyone having one in the debate, including Mr. Trudeau, which you don't want.

SPEAKER_00 1:02:59

but you're wrong. I'm fine with that. He was very good on content.

SPEAKER_00 1:03:02

We'll leave it there.

SPEAKER_02 1:03:04

And that's a wrap of episode 548. My name is Zane Velgey. With me as always is Peter Carpenter, and this live audience.

SPEAKER_02 1:03:21

Thank you so, so much for coming. I hope you had a good time watching the debate, going through the show.

Carter 1:03:27

Well, I'm just really impressed that we've been here for six and a half, well, you've been here for six and a half hours. That's, like, ridiculous, and thank you so very much for coming. Well,

SPEAKER_00 1:03:35

Well, math is difficult, isn't it? We...

Transcript