Transcript
Zain
0:04
This is The Strategist, episode 533. My name is Zain Velji. With me, Stephen Carter, Corey Hogan. Gents, how are you guys? Doing great. Oh, I'm doing pretty good.
Zain
0:16
anticipation for an answer that was underwhelming. The life of Corey Hogan. Okay, so before we get started, guys, we have a special announcement. We've been tweeting about this. So
Zain
0:25
So exciting! Are you excited? We are doing a live show, a live show here in Calgary at the Air Engineer Theatre, 7
Zain
0:31
7 o'clock Monday, June 15th.
Zain
0:35
It is free to RSVP, so just like all of our podcasts, and for those of you who are allergic to paying anything
Zain
0:39
anything for anything, this is free.
Zain
0:41
All you need to do to RSVP is go to live.thestrategist.ca.
Zain
0:47
I don't know what the show is going to be about. It's going to have the three of us. There may be a special guest. Who knows? I mean, Corey and I may do a rap. We're both from the Northeast. I'm a happy rapper. Well, you're from the Southeast. I'm from the
Zain
0:59
I live now in the southeast. We are going to be doing a rap about Sunridge Mole, I have to say. That is
Corey
1:03
is what we're going to be rapping about.
Corey
1:05
Well, and there goes the last of our listeners for this one.
Zain
1:08
thank you for coming. Come to the live show.
Zain
1:10
It might be limericks. Carter,
Carter
1:11
Carter, are you going to do a limerick?
Carter
1:12
I'm not going to do a limerick. I'm not going to do any poetry at all. I'm going to do what I do. I'm going to yell at
Corey
1:17
at the audience. I'm going to make them feel bad about themselves. Stephen's going to do long form about the man from Nantucket.
Zain
1:25
he's maybe gonna read his atheist manifest okay that is monday june 15th here in calgary free
Zain
1:30
free to rsvp go to live.thestrategist.ca uh
Zain
1:34
uh you probably want to see how we do this and how the sausage is made live on stage no
Carter
1:39
no i don't think they want us talking about sausage at all actually truth be told i think that this is not where they come for sausage making they're
Carter
1:46
they're gonna love this you're gonna live in person
Zain
1:48
person it's gonna be epic i think silence is just the best treatment it's your monologues it's gonna be epic you
Zain
1:55
you are overselling this i'm
Zain
1:57
no idea what we're
Carter
1:58
we're doing there's gonna be lights and like we have special lighting effects oh
Carter
2:04
oh it's gonna be huge all
Corey
2:06
all right well it probably should be mentioned that uh this is also the day of the throne speech yes the first ndp throne speech and that's part of the reason we're doing it we're gonna pass judgment on that we don't uh we
Corey
2:18
we don't expect that it will be all that the ndp is gonna do They're going to hold back some, but it will certainly give us a pretty good indication of what's
Corey
2:26
going on. If you listen
Zain
2:26
listen to the show, I think you'll understand the general theme and banter that we have, and that's what we want to bring on stage. I mean, it's not a show appropriate for kids, not because we
Zain
2:34
we don't want them to hear what we're saying, but because of Carter's restraining order. First
Carter
2:37
First of all, first of all, let me tell you this. Putting this on me, when it's Hogan who's been doing most of the swearing, is
Carter
2:43
is totally uncalled for.
Zain
2:45
I love how you just brushed
Carter
2:47
Okay, let's get started. You changed the channel. Is this the first day of our listeners? what's the first thing you do when you're in trouble change the channel guys
Carter
2:55
let's move into it okay thank
Zain
2:59
this episode we want to actually focus on on
Zain
3:02
on every party except the ndp i think there is a lot to be said about the future and the current of
Zain
3:07
of some of our political parties here in alberta so let's start with
Zain
3:10
with our first segment called hide the money under the mattress the ode to the pc party so
Zain
3:17
guys the political future of the pc party is is not just just you
Zain
3:20
you know tied to their ideology or where they stand in the political spectrum it's tied to the dollars and cents and one thing that we know and that we've heard with
Zain
3:29
with don braid and other analysts and other writers is that the pc party is heavily in debt so
Zain
3:35
so outside of the obvious reasons that the party is not able to pay back this debt why
Zain
3:39
why is this a big deal well i'll
Corey
3:40
i'll go with you first let's we can't really talk about this without talking about the scale let's talk about the And on the low end, what we're hearing, and it's not just me, and I think it's been reported in enough things, that it's not just in the realm of gossip. But on the low end, we're hearing that the Conservatives, the PCs, ran up a $1.4 million debt.
Corey
4:00
It's a lot of money. That's a campaign debt. That's a campaign debt, and that's a good point. Some people are saying there was debt preceding that.
Corey
4:07
Could be $2.2 million. We're hearing numbers as high as $4 million. Now, $4 million would be crazy. $4 million is just shut it down. There's absolutely no way they have anything. The
Carter
4:16
The only way that you could even see evidence of a $4 million debt is if they were to do something ridiculous and crazy, like
Carter
4:22
like the day after the election, letting go all their staff.
Carter
4:25
If they were to do something ridiculous and crazy, like letting go all their staff. Which, Stephen, they did. What?
Corey
4:32
No, but I mean. Oh, my God. Oh, my God. You're predicting something that has already happened.
Corey
4:36
But that's true. That's true. And I think what's really problematic about that was their messaging around that was we've got to fire everyone now because the bills are still coming in and we don't know how bad it is. Okay, so let's scale
Zain
4:47
scale this back a little bit because I want to talk about the debt and the campaign debt.
Zain
4:51
We saw that before the election they did a fundraiser and
Zain
4:55
and after the election they did a fundraiser where they approximately got 1
Zain
5:00
,500 people in a room to pay 500 bucks. Where did all that money go?
Carter
5:03
No, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no. know they
Carter
5:06
they had a fun they had two fundraisers on the deck and they sold tickets when brentis was popular yeah
Carter
5:12
and one of those fundraisers occurred i don't remember when but it was before the election and the people went the
Carter
5:18
the people who went i mean and people attended the second one which i was surprised after the election that people even attended well
Corey
5:24
well i'm surprised when people slow down at a car crash yeah
Carter
5:26
yeah i mean people went to go and i mean and and the
Carter
5:30
the reports back ranged from it was was fantastic to it was a funeral so somewhere in the true in the middle fantastic funeral i've
Zain
5:37
i've been to a few well
Carter
5:38
well wait really but the the the money was collected months ago the money was collected and it was spent and spent over the election there is it's not like they said afterwards oh no we'll process your credit cards now because if they'd said we'll process your credit cards now here's how much money they would have raised so you're not okay
Zain
5:57
okay so you're telling This was the leading party that had hosted two fundraisers and had already banked the change that they were going to get from that and spent it during this election. Is that what we're saying?
Corey
6:07
Let's give some context. Stephen, how much did you spend in 2012 on the PC campaign?
Carter
6:12
I believe it was about $4.4 or something like that. Susan would know better, but I think that's around
Carter
6:18
around where we're at. That's just the
Zain
6:18
the central infrastructure. That doesn't include any of the 87 conservative writings on their own.
Carter
6:26
So you spend, Central Campaign spends money, and then the individual riding associations spend money. It's absolutely independent of the primary campaign. So that
Zain
6:35
that 4.7 you're telling us is just Central Campaign?
Carter
6:38
It's about 4.4, I think. 4.4, it's just Central Campaign. Yeah,
Corey
6:42
the amount of money, their burn rate was enormous. Those television ads cost money. Producing them costs money. Renting a bus costs money. Crashing a bus costs money. They
Corey
6:53
They spent an awful lot of money. And the notion that the bills are still coming in, that should terrify anybody who's got a stake in the future of this party.
Carter
7:01
Well, and a campaign manager, one of the brilliant things that Susan Elliott did in the 2012 campaigns is she knew exactly where every dollar was going. And even somebody who has an iron grip on every ounce of the finances, as Susan did, still has things sneak through.
Carter
7:18
What I'm hearing, I don't know. All
Carter
7:20
All we heard was from what the PCs actually said after the election. There was no iron grip.
Carter
7:25
They don't know how much they spent, and it sounds like they panicked. And when you panic, you can incur incredible dollars in expenditures because you can buy television ads tomorrow, and they're going to cost you an awful lot of money, and I suspect that that's what the PCs were doing. So
Zain
7:41
So is it as simple as they were going to spend this money, and as soon as they won, they were going to have a process to try to replenish the coffers with corporate donations? Is that what the plan
Carter
7:52
plan was? Super easy to cash flow an election like that. You go through, you, I
Carter
7:56
I mean, Nenshi, we tried to spend as much money as we had in the bank until the last two weeks, and then you're in a spot where you're spending money that
Carter
8:06
that you hope to have in the bank.
Carter
8:08
And it's the hope to have in the bank money, I
Carter
8:10
I mean, ultimately, we just stopped breaking even, which tells you we spent more than we should have because money flowed in afterwards. After the campaign. Yeah.
Zain
8:18
let's talk about this debt a little bit. I don't want to get too technical, but I think it's important for this case to
Zain
8:24
to talk about the type of debt. Corey, you and I had chatted earlier this week about the
Zain
8:28
the type of debt that the PCs currently have. And you were mentioning the difference between a
Zain
8:32
a structured and an unstructured debt. Can you just illuminate that point a little bit more?
Corey
8:38
2001, I doubt many will remember, but the Liberal Party put on a campaign with Nancy McBeth was our leader. And this is no knock against Nancy. She's lovely. But they ran up a big debt. I think it got to about 1.1 million dollars in large part because we ran television ads and television ads are expensive
Corey
8:56
after the election um we
Corey
8:59
we had some lines of credit we had some unstructured we had all sorts of money owed to all sorts of people but because the money was owed in large to financial institutions
Corey
9:09
there was an awful lot of reason for the banks to work with us to find a payment plan ultimately that debt was paid off in 2009 so it took eight years to take care of that debt for the liberals. Now, here's the thing.
Corey
9:19
As long as somebody's got a big stake in you surviving like that, you can make it work.
Corey
9:25
The problem that the PCs have is by all accounts, by their own words, this money is still coming in or these bills are still coming in. That debt is to suppliers. This is an accounts receivable situation. This is I owe $30,000 for polling here. I owe $500,000 for for television ads here this is not a debt that is owed to one body or one body i should say that has the ability to restructure you easily calder
Corey
9:51
calder bateman is not going to be real keen to have an eight-year restructuring plan with the right these are vendors that are owed money at this point these
Carter
9:59
these are 30 to 90 day receivables right and if you stretch beyond that people start to get antsy so we're going to see antsy people and they're the the this is the type of debt that kills this company i'm speaking from my own personal experience on this this is what ultimately killed the
Carter
10:14
the company that i ran was
Carter
10:15
was unstructured debt if
Carter
10:17
we'd had the ability to have a longer term single
Zain
10:22
a bank or financial institution
Carter
10:24
institution we probably well maybe
Carter
10:28
were in trouble but
Zain
10:30
talk about that a bit more let's
Corey
10:31
let's not get derailed on that but yeah one of the problems the pcs have is that by the nature of their organization most debt's going to be unstructured they are an unincorporated association many of the other political let's not get too technical you're right many of the other political parties have incorporated as societies corporations in many cases pcs didn't go that route so the entire line of credit the pcs had of about four hundred thousand dollars was
Corey
10:56
was backed by four hundred thousand dollars on deposit they didn't have the ability to run up anything beyond how much
Corey
11:01
much of a complicating variable is
Zain
11:04
is it that the vendors that they owe this money to have
Zain
11:08
trusted partners for this party for decades or
Zain
11:12
or years in the making. Is that a complicating variable that you see that has implications beyond the finances at this point? I
Carter
11:20
but I'm going to tell you why.
Carter
11:22
Friendship is great. Support is great. But these people were your friends because you were in power. The PCs were in power. So the The problem is now money is money, and the PCs have no chips to cash. They can't say, you know, listen, it's going to take me eight months to pay off this debt or 16 months, but don't worry, we'll make good.
Carter
11:46
We'll make good. And this is what the PCs have done for a long time. Don't worry, we'll take care of you. And so the companies and the friends of the PCs get taken care of through
Carter
11:55
through government business, not through the business of the party. party. There is no business of the party anymore. They control no government business. These people are going to look for their immediate payoff and if they don't get it, there's going to be trouble. And that's where the party is going to go and try and raid the constituency coffers. Well,
Corey
12:11
Well, friendship's good. You're right. It's not everything. You're right. But reputation is everything to a lot of these business people. And they don't want to be burning potential partnerships down the road. They don't want to have all of these PC businessmen or these These PC-connected businessmen and businesswomen hating their guts for taking down their party. Who's
Carter
12:30
Who's left there, though? Look at Ron Renaud, the most loyal of the PC fundraisers. The fundraisers,
Carter
12:37
The chief fundraiser for the party. This guy has been there for 20 years. This guy dates back to Lockheed. What?
Carter
12:41
What? This guy is like...
Corey
12:43
like... Here's another reality.
Corey
12:45
It's a game theory problem. It's a prisoner's dilemma situation. The best thing for all of these vendors to do is
Corey
12:52
is not kill the PC party. because that means that none of them are going to get top dollar or all of their money back. The problem they have is it only takes one or two of those people they owe money to to say, I don't care. You're paying me right now. Those are the terms. We're going to court right now. I'm going to take the copper out of the walls of PCHQ if I have to. I'm getting my money. And that starts a run. And at that point, the PCs are in real trouble.
Zain
13:16
Okay. So I think you've both mentioned points I want to hit on. First, Corey,
Zain
13:19
What does the solution look like? Can the PCs, where
Zain
13:23
where they stand right now, let's say the number is anywhere between two and four. Yeah.
Zain
13:28
declare bankruptcy? Is that something they can do? And what does that mean? And tying back to what Carter mentioned, what does that mean for the constituency associations? This is where that term comes from, hiding the money. Yeah. I mean, there is a disparate amount of wealth between the constituency associations, all 87 of them across the province.
Zain
13:45
So, number one, what can they do right now? Now, number two, what
Corey
13:48
what does it mean on the constituency side? Okay, well, and I think I'm going to take them in reverse order here. The constituencies at the start of the year or when they filed in March of what they had at the start of the year was about $3 million between them on reserve. Now, that was before an election. I think we
Corey
14:02
we can reasonably suspect that they raised the money before the election, but they probably spent more than they raised in those three months. Oh,
Carter
14:08
Oh, to be sure.
Carter
14:09
be sure they spent more than they raised overall. overall so
Corey
14:13
so some of those associations had almost nothing three thousand four thousand dollars i think were some of the low ones some of them had a king's ransom hundreds of thousands of dollars that disparity is going to be a problem in its own right because it means some pc associations are going to have to give an awful lot more than others and i'm not sure that the conservatives by nature love from each according to their ability to each according to their need uh
Corey
14:36
uh Keep in mind,
Carter
14:38
mind, this is a party that when the former Speaker of the Legislature left, he tried to find a way to take the $200,000 that was in his constituency bank account with him. And the constituency actually passed a resolution giving
Carter
14:51
giving him the money. Before
Corey
14:52
Before someone realized, can't do that. Can't do that.
Carter
14:54
that. Breaking some rules here. Back
Corey
14:58
But this is the Speaker of the House. And they are fiercely protective of their money. When the PC party tried to put in a central rule that said 10% of your fundraising comes to us to deal with the cost of processing those, the cost of putting in receipts, I'm told 57 of the 87 constituency presidents, maybe it was 56, were ready to sign a letter of resignation because they thought this was largesse by the party stepping into their territory. The
Carter
15:23
The constituency associations are absolutely convinced that they are the party and there is no need for a central party. And the problem that they're faced with is there actually is. Central party is what facilitates the constituency associations and the central party is about to die. So
Carter
15:39
So will the constituency associations step up and do what needs to be done?
Corey
15:43
Well, can they step up? This leads pretty nicely into the next point. Yeah. You asked what, they may not have the money. You may be able to take every dollar out of the PC. see and still not pay this debt we don't know we don't know potentially we don't let's let's speculate that it's okay for them okay here yeah here's the problem that they have beyond that they
Corey
16:03
don't really have any levers to take that money short of going into receivership and and at that point the damage is done because you ask can a party declare bankruptcy
Corey
16:12
don't know they're an unincorporated association and in some legal senses that means everybody's on the hook uh
Corey
16:18
uh in other senses it's just lost and somebody's gonna lose No,
Carter
16:21
everybody just the money goes away. Yeah,
Carter
16:24
and then elections Alberta will have to count up come in and clean up the mess so
Corey
16:27
so but that's that's the second point Steven Stevens jumping to that second one a
Corey
16:32
a Political party registered under the elections act is not the same as an association Incorporated or otherwise running the political parties. They are two separate entities to a certain extent a Political party filing with elections Alberta is like this is the name of our association that runs all of our stuff Yeah, here's our political party name. Here's the the principles
Corey
16:50
principles of our party it's like one sheet and it's a different type of registration and it is not by
Corey
16:58
necessarily dependent on the organization but if the party declares bankruptcy
Corey
17:05
mean we're in total uncharted territory i guess that's the point and and maybe we shouldn't speculate too deeply but the only time real trouble the
Carter
17:11
the only time we've seen this is 2001 when liberals run up an enormous debt and it takes them eight years to pay off yeah so let's Let's be charitable and
Carter
17:20
say that the worst-case scenario is that for the PCs, an enormous debt that takes them eight years to pay off. The best-case scenario for right now for the PCs is that they're able to get the money from their constituency associations. They essentially drain everything down, and everything works out to slightly better than zero.
Carter
17:39
They owe more money than slightly better than zero. there
Carter
17:42
there the question is can they rebuild the difference between the liberals uh and the progressive conservatives is the distance that you fall nancy but or nancy mcbeth formerly
Carter
17:54
formerly betkowski uh didn't fall that far right
Carter
17:58
right their party was still in place they still had seats they still had hope they still had dreams does the pc party a
Carter
18:07
a party that doesn't want to conduct to leadership, a
Carter
18:10
a party that has an interim leader that isn't going to be able to raise big dollars, I'm told they are banging to
Carter
18:16
bring in more money from people while
Carter
18:18
while the corporate donations are available.
Carter
18:22
While those corporate donations are available, they're
Carter
18:24
they're not getting them.
Carter
18:26
And at some point, as
Carter
18:28
as you're about to ask me the question, that
Carter
18:30
that corporate donation window is going to close. Let's
Zain
18:32
Let's talk about that because I think it's a natural progression. The
Zain
18:35
The NDP want to eliminate corporate and union donations.
Zain
18:38
What ramifications does that have? And I think that's such an easy answer on the PC side. But
Zain
18:44
But I think it's a larger explanation to people who might be listening and saying, well, I
Zain
18:49
I mean, they're the PC party. Yes, they're in third, but they've occupied this big tent in the middle. I'm sure there's people that want to give money to them.
Zain
18:56
Wrong, or potentially wrong, given what's happening right now. Well, the PCs
Corey
19:00
PCs were still in government, I believe.
Corey
19:01
And I'm sure someone will correct me if I'm wrong. But I believe in that final quarter, they raised less money from individuals than the NDP or the Wild Rose. Now, I want you to think about that. That was the government, and those are the only donations that are now available to them. It's not just that they're going to eliminate corporate and union donations, and I think that's happening in a matter of days at this point. At least the process will start.
Corey
19:26
they're lowering that limit as well. So those large donations, not just corporate, but large donations are something that they've really relied on in the past.
Carter
19:34
past. Right now, I can give $30,000. My corporation can give $30,000. My wife can give $30,000. Our kids can give $30,000. If I want to, I can fund $150,000 to the party.
Corey
19:47
What's going to happen in about... I could write a bad check for that much. Well,
Carter
19:53
day we can all write
Zain
19:55
write bad checks, yes.
Carter
19:56
But in 30 days, we're
Carter
19:58
we're not going to have that situation anymore. There's no longer going to be the availability to that kind of capital. Instead, it's going to be, I
Carter
20:05
I can write a check, my wife can write a check, my
Carter
20:08
my kids can each write a check, my corporation's off,
Carter
20:11
a check. And now there's going to be a limit on how big that check can be. The limit right now is $30,000.
Carter
20:17
The federal limit is $1,500. I
Carter
20:20
don't know where the NDP are going to set their limit, but it's going to be somewhere between $1,500 and $30,000, and I'm betting it's way closer to $1,500. I think it's a shockingly
Zain
20:30
shockingly safe bet, I think.
Corey
20:31
It'll be a few thousand. If
Carter
20:33
If it's more than $5,000, we'll do another free episode of The Strategist live at the Engineered Air Theater
Carter
20:40
on June the 15th, starting at 7
Carter
20:43
7 p.m. Doors are at 7. Thank you very much. People know that we've
Zain
20:46
we've got a smart audience
Carter
20:47
audience that listens to this. saying brought to you by audible.com is
Zain
20:51
is it though i
Carter
20:52
i don't know i'm just trying we're throwing some stuff against the wall here okay
Zain
20:55
okay well listen i i'm gonna derail you on your own plug for our own show that's very meta um but
Zain
21:03
so i guess i mean the logical question is holy
Zain
21:06
holy fuck okay we've accepted that this
Zain
21:09
this debt could be very large they do not have the access to corporate donations to pay it off what
Zain
21:13
what happens next or what can happen next you know people have been tweeting me when we talked about this financial stuff a
Zain
21:18
a few days ago on Twitter well
Zain
21:20
well can they come back as another party what is that what is the path forward or how would you construct
Corey
21:25
construct a path forward will the last person to leave the PC party please turn off the lights it's going to be a case where they'll put in trustees in a political sense so that they can control that brand and if they are smart they're finding a life raft in that situation I want to be what is a life raft look like a life raft is Greg Clark at this point and you guys
Carter
21:44
guys but you've got some that will go to the life raft of greg clark you've got others that are going to go to the life raft of
Carter
21:50
of getting just the heck out of there you
Carter
21:52
you got some you know and then you've got others frankly that may look at the wild rose um
Carter
21:59
the pc party is as we know it if the debt is that big
Carter
22:03
is done and and so let me let me put it into the different spots a million bucks you know what they'll bounce back they've got that they can cover it they've got that special fund that no No one really
Carter
22:13
really understands, even the people who are inside of it.
Corey
22:17
TapCal, but it's gone. It's been cashed out.
Corey
22:25
If you know something I don't, that's fine. I'm just, I'm
Carter
22:27
I'm hypothetically, I'm throwing it out there.
Carter
22:31
So, I hear there's still some money. So, if it's less than a million, they'll
Carter
22:36
If it's between a million and two million, we're back to the liberals in 2001. It's frustrating, but they can probably claw their way through. With the audit complication that it's unstructured.
Carter
22:44
If it's over $2 million, well, and they can only raise X
Carter
22:48
number of dollars per
Carter
22:51
If it's over $2 million and the rules change in a relatively short order, if
Carter
22:56
if I'm sitting there and I'm one of their nine MLAs, I'm
Carter
23:01
how am I going to make sure I'm not tapped by this? How
Corey
23:03
How do I make sure I'm not the last MLA? Right.
Carter
23:05
Right. How do I make sure that I'm not the last person? There's
Carter
23:08
There's a reason why Brent is bailed on the night of the election.
Carter
23:12
he didn't want to be the last guy he
Carter
23:14
didn't want to have to rebuild this he's
Carter
23:15
he's left it for people who are less able to do it uh
Carter
23:18
uh rick mckiver thinks he's able to do it i
Carter
23:21
i like rick mckiver i think he's a very capable politician i do not think he's the guy that you go to to dig you out of a three million four million dollar hole i'm
Corey
23:29
i'm going to say one more point on this because it
Corey
23:32
requires so much goodwill even in that two million dollar scenario to move forward so many different parties exactly
Corey
23:38
And I've got to say, the
Corey
23:40
the PCs right now better hope, they
Corey
23:42
they better hope there is no evidence that they knew they were spending more money than they had by such a large factor. Because there's a word for that, and
Corey
23:49
and there's a regulation that's violated, and it's not an election regulation at that point. You spend a million dollars you know you don't have, that's
Corey
23:56
that's called fraud. fraud. I'm not accusing these people of fraud, I want to be very clear, but they
Corey
24:02
they better hope that this wasn't an intentional move by anybody in the PC party to spend more than they had. I
Carter
24:08
I don't believe it was. I don't believe that there was anything intentional. I believe that this was sheer panic and on top of that, I'm told that they actually believed their spin. They were going to be in the game. So they weren't in the game, I don't think it's fraud, I think it's just mass stupidity. let's
Zain
24:26
let's talk about that life raft a little bit more is is there any value in
Zain
24:31
in the ideological tent that the pcs occupied i mean albertans
Zain
24:36
albertans were comfortable parking it whether they were on the center left or center right for many years with the pcs there was a sense of comfort with that no
Carter
24:43
this will make me angry you're making me
Zain
24:47
me angry part of the mandate of this program let
Carter
24:49
let me ask you a question what was the ideology of the progressive conservative party of the last 15 years because i have a theory and my theory is their ideology was let's stay in power how
Carter
25:00
how can i stay in power if they were a right-wing party they would never have allowed us to have a deficit in seven years of boom if they were a left-wing party they would have addressed the issues that exist in health care if they were the left-wing party they would have figured out h before being dragged to the table by allison redford's leadership campaign they
Carter
25:19
they They weren't a left-wing party. They weren't a right-wing party. They were a let's just all stay here together and be in power because we like power party.
Zain
25:27
So you think there's no value to the ideological middle that they occupy? No,
Carter
25:31
No, there's a lot of value to the ideological middle. I just don't think they occupy it.
Zain
25:34
Okay, interesting. So let's talk about that a little bit more because, Corey, you said that life raft could look like the Alberta party, that's
Zain
25:40
that's center-left and center-right. They put flag posts on both sides and said anything in between is us.
Zain
25:46
How does someone kind of capture that? And I don't want to get too far ahead, but very quickly on the PC side, how
Zain
25:51
how do they kind of relive
Zain
25:53
relive that or try to still use that as a certain value prop?
Corey
25:57
if I'm a PC MLA, step one is finding an excuse to leave that's not just things have gone badly. I find a point of severe disagreement with Rick McIver, with the PC executive, with something going on and saying, I just cannot stand this enough. You know, I was here because I was a centrist. I thought that we were going to do good things. This is not happening. I'm out of here. Here, I'm going to go sit as an independent, and then I would really... Whatever Bill
Carter
26:21
Bill 1 is, you're going to be ideologically opposed to it.
Carter
26:25
So if you're in a PCMLA, whatever Bill 1 is, and
Carter
26:29
and the PCs decide to vote against it, you're voting for it.
Carter
26:32
Because if you vote for it, and you've got an ideological split with your party,
Carter
26:36
let's say it's corporate donations.
Carter
26:38
For too long, corporations have been ruling the province of Alberta. I saw it, and
Carter
26:45
now I'm prepared to stop it. right
Carter
26:48
right right and then you and you vote for bill one and then you go citizen independent because clearly your party doesn't have the same values well
Corey
26:55
well i'll tell you the pcs would be nuts to vote against that at this point they don't have the votes to stop it and it's insanely popular getting rid of corporate donations let's
Zain
27:04
let's move on i think this is a very interesting segment the the life the history and the times and the future of the pc party we'll discuss it on many episodes going forward time
Zain
27:13
time for our next segment this
Zain
27:15
is about the wild rose party and the segment is called big caucus in those jeans what
Zain
27:20
what's come over you i i think dick jokes are so easy they are i especially i think dick jokes and brian
Corey
27:28
big caucus in those jeans okay i'm
Corey
27:30
i'm i'm gonna i'm i'm gonna look for another podcast anybody out there yeah
Corey
27:35
yeah you are not gonna find find another home um
Zain
27:38
brian gene trending up popularity
Zain
27:40
popularity of his party he seems to be doing doing well what does what does the summer ahead hold for brian gene he's
Corey
27:47
he's got he's in a good position he gets to be um banging that drum about spending over the summer the ndp have to a certain extent aided him in that with the mini budget and that's not to say the ndp are making a wrong decision here but uh
Corey
28:01
uh by bringing in a mini budget that will certainly
Corey
28:04
certainly not cut anything it will in in fact just increased spending by most accounts yeah
Corey
28:09
this is brian g he can go around and say this is crazy we're spending more and more we spend more that there's a lot of statistics that the wild girls loves to pull out about per capita spending i
Corey
28:17
i think they're mostly garbage but they certainly find an audience and i and i think that he's just going to repeat that message over the summer he's
Carter
28:24
he's going to have an opportunity at a time when there's a federal you know the federal election and
Carter
28:29
and everybody's going to be out doing the entire barbecue circuit no one has seen brian and gene at
Corey
28:33
at a barbecue yeah
Carter
28:34
yeah right like we didn't know who he was three months ago and now he's he's the leader of the opposition party yeah he's he's way more popular than he thought he was than we thought he was going to be he then he thought he was going to be and
Carter
28:46
and now he gets to go stump around uh the entire barbecue circuit with every conservative minister federally
Carter
28:52
federally federally because they're going to come through and he gets to say we're the wild rose is the the only conservative party left in the province of Alberta.
Carter
29:01
Everybody else was for increasing taxes. Everybody else was, and we're going to be the only ones who can say it here. And by the end of this, he is going to be so popular in rural Alberta and in parts of Calgary, he
Carter
29:12
he is going to be polling in
Carter
29:13
in the margin by the end of the summer of the NDP. That's
Corey
29:17
That is bold. I'm going to write down that prediction. There's no way.
Zain
29:22
I'm ready to get down to it. Brian Jean popularity. So, Brian Jean, leader from Fort McMurray. You're speculating he becomes popular in
Zain
29:28
in Calgary, in rural. But I want to talk specifically about rural because there was this theory that when
Zain
29:34
when the Wild Rose or some Wild Rose supporters thought that their party was collapsing with the PC attacks, they switched
Zain
29:41
switched their votes from the Wild Rose to the NDP. They
Zain
29:43
They wanted to do anything but vote for the PC party.
Zain
29:47
Are those voters accessible to Brian Jean and should he be building a parade in the rural areas to try to access those individuals that may have voted for the government? I
Carter
29:55
think that right now there's a tremendous opportunity in rural Alberta. I
Carter
29:58
I think that Wild Rose could be looking at a complete sweep of rural Alberta and
Carter
30:02
and they'll be able to get a lot of money. He can speak to rural values exceptionally well. and not to imply that there's this huge gap between rural and urban values but
Carter
30:14
there's a there is a divide there's always been a three-legged stool in in alberta politics and one of the legs that that
Carter
30:20
that brian jean should be able to go out and get is
Carter
30:27
seats in rural alberta he's got a chance to do it i
Corey
30:30
i think he's got to be really careful i think I
Corey
30:32
a rural strategy is a nice start, but he could easily be seduced into being a one-trick pony. I
Carter
30:38
I think that he will be seduced into being a one-trick pony.
Zain
30:40
But you just, I mean, so correct me if I'm wrong, but did you not just say he's going to be popular in Calgary as well? I mean, this is a
Carter
30:47
a place that had... In places in Calgary. Okay. So what does
Zain
30:49
does that look like?
Carter
30:50
The suburban ridings. Okay. The suburban ridings where they, I think, almost accidentally elected an NDP, NDP
Carter
30:58
NDP MLA. I wouldn't be so quick. Okay, fine. I think that they'll bounce back. I wouldn't
Zain
31:02
wouldn't be so quite
Carter
31:02
quite personal. Right down, he's
Carter
31:04
he's going to be within the margin of error of the NDP by the summer. So you think Brian Jean plus
Zain
31:08
plus federal ministers in Calgary equals Brian Jean popularity and suburban writings in this city to go up? I mean, I
Carter
31:15
find it a little far-fetched personally. I think the PC has dropped from 28% to 16%.
Corey
31:21
Well, I think that the Wild Rose will take some of those votes, but I think the Alberta Party will take some, and I think the NDP will take many. many well
Carter
31:29
well now you're just forcing you're jumping ahead but i mean the question was about the wild rose i don't think i don't believe that the alberta party is in a position to take some of those votes yet
Corey
31:40
let's talk about the wild rose and the rural thing though there there is a risk that they become the federal liberal party as it existed in 2006 in reverse so the liberals became a party of urban centers all urban and the problem the wild rose have is as much as when you color in one of those election maps those big rural ridings look nice and pretty two
Corey
32:01
two-thirds of the seats are in calgary and edmonton and i i think there's a real risk that if they hang their hat
Corey
32:08
we're mixing metaphors all over the place here but if they hang their hat on that stool leg then
Carter
32:14
i brought this then
Corey
32:14
then maybe they can't go any further i think that if i was can brian
Carter
32:18
brian gene go can in four years i
Carter
32:22
mean he thinks he can't right now he thinks he can be the next premier um
Carter
32:26
um i don't think he can because
Carter
32:28
because i don't think he i think he's got i
Carter
32:30
think all he's got is one trick and
Carter
32:33
and he's going to play that one trick over and over and over again the same way that danielle did because
Carter
32:38
because it's the same people advising uh
Carter
32:40
advising brian gene as we're advising dan i want
Zain
32:42
want to move on quickly but give me very quickly what is one thing brian gene has to do this summer politically
Zain
32:48
politically or or government wise he
Carter
32:50
he needs to look good in western wear he
Corey
32:53
needs to look good in western corey do you have one uh
Corey
32:54
uh he needs to look very good in western wear i i don't know i mean i don't know what he needs to do i think if i were him i'd be sticking to the cities i would be um spending
Corey
33:04
spending a lot of time in downtown calgary the
Corey
33:07
the ndp have done they've
Corey
33:08
they've run a master's course of diffusing the anger in downtown calgary some of it just sort of judo making the people who've spoken out against them in corporate calgary out
Corey
33:18
there on a limb on their own uh But Brian Jean needs to start picking at those scabs, though. He needs when QP starts in the fall to be able to pick up the phone and say, what do you got?
Carter
33:27
But here's the prediction. For our little mini section in June, when we start off on the Strategist live show on June the 15th.
Carter
33:35
Oh, where's that show going to be? It's going to be in the Engineered Air Theater. Oh, Air Engineered Theater. Close, but no.
Corey
33:40
Engineered Air. Why do you think it's Air Engineered? Did I say it wrong? Yeah.
Carter
33:44
Okay, well, then we have to redo the
Zain
33:45
podcast. Let's try to get it. We do this one take. thank um uh so cory and i will do a rap about the northeast and potentially sunridge more hey
Carter
33:52
hey let me finish my thought where was i with my thought
Corey
33:54
oh i don't know god
Zain
33:55
god damn it belgique okay that's fine that's fine let's move on all
Zain
34:00
all right next segment me
Zain
34:02
me and my small caucus
Zain
34:08
tale of two parties the alberta party trending up the alberta liberal party trending down let's talk about the Liberal Party or the Alberta Liberal Party first.
Zain
34:18
David Swan, both of you guys on previous episodes have said that Dr. Swan probably, in your estimation, will not stick around until the next election. I don't even know what the question is here. What does he do? What should he do? Give me your take on the Alberta Liberal Party. I guess that's it. Yeah.
Corey
34:33
Yeah. You know, every time we talk about David Swan, I get a text from my sister who says you're too mean to David Swan.
Corey
34:40
But I think it's time for some hard truths for David Swan. one, your
Corey
34:44
your party is over. It's not going anywhere. And part of that is going to be David because you are still there in the legislature and nobody else is. So I'm going to repeat what I've said before. As
Corey
34:56
As long as David is there, the party cannot move on. But as soon as David leaves, the party has no legitimacy.
Carter
35:03
They're stuck literally between a rock and a hard place. The very definition of a a catch-22 situation yeah uh your leader is david swan yeah uh they're going to hold a leadership race uh let me ask you just a quick question i
Carter
35:18
mean who's which one of the lesser lights is actually going to come step forward and run as the liberal party leader who
Carter
35:25
who ran last time can
Carter
35:27
can anybody even remember who ran against uh against raj sherman who
Carter
35:30
who ran against uh david swan sure Dave Taylor because you ran his campaign you remember that one you'll
Carter
35:36
you'll be able to
Carter
35:38
who's the next person who's the person who steps forward and says yeah I'm going to do that
Corey
35:44
it's difficult because even when you look at the people who
Corey
35:48
say you didn't win fine but you at least placed or you at least showed there's not a lot of names the closest that the Liberals had outside of David was Lord Blakeman and I believe after that
Corey
36:00
that end of list. I don't know. And I don't think Laurie Blateman wants the job at this point. I know that I've heard that Shelley Warwick Martin, the former president of the party, may be interested in it.
Corey
36:10
Everybody always talks about Harvey Locke, but I think that's more wishful thinking than anything else on behalf of liberals.
Corey
36:16
I don't know. And that's not to say that there's not somebody out there.
Corey
36:21
I think a smart move, if there is such a thing for them, is to find somebody who represents generational change. So let's chat. One more question on the
Zain
36:28
the the Liberal Party, because when we do our day-to-day, we always talk about what's the path? Is there a path? So the next logical conclusion, if we're saying that Swan is not staying, there's
Zain
36:38
there's a new leader.
Zain
36:39
There's a new leader.
Zain
36:41
What's the path? And is there a path? Be
Zain
36:43
creative if you need to, but is there a path for this party?
Carter
36:45
Well, here's the problem. Immediately, there is a new leader. So that happens within, let's say that happens in 14 to 16 months. So there's a new leader. It's actually probably going to take less time than that, but let's give them a little bit of a runway. They're not going to be able to sit. They have to have a seat in the legislature. So Swan basically needs to step down at that point to give that new leader the opportunity to
Carter
37:07
to run in Calgary Mountain View and win.
Carter
37:10
He's not going to win.
Carter
37:11
He or she is not going to win Calgary Mountain View.
Carter
37:15
is Calgary Mountain View and wins because he's David Swan, as evidenced by the fact he's
Carter
37:19
he's the last one standing.
Carter
37:22
If Kent Harrod run in Calgary buffalo i think kent hair would be the
Carter
37:25
the last guy standing or one of the last two uh
Carter
37:28
uh even if dar shannon run in mccall they win because of
Zain
37:31
of who they are they
Carter
37:32
they they are different and bigger in their area than the party david
Carter
37:38
david will be gone the
Carter
37:39
the next shelly wark martin
Carter
37:42
martin wark who ran
Carter
37:44
ran in calgary and got what's the word i'm looking for crushed
Corey
37:50
an accurate word in this case yeah
Carter
37:52
yeah but that was not unique to shelly i i think they can't win they can't hold because
Carter
37:57
because at the end of the day the alberta party is going to make a run on on mountain view um
Carter
38:01
um the ndp are going to make a run on mountain view and uh the pcs and the wild rose are all going to make a run on mountain view and you know who's going to come in fifth out of that scenario the
Corey
38:12
yeah and the liberals you know i was looking with i don't think interest is the right word but i was looking at their AGM and what was coming out of that and and there was a continued threat of we're gonna continue as liberals we're not going to merge nobody wants to merge with liberals anymore here's here's the thing merger was retreat with honor right the party was on a downward trajectory there were other vehicles out there there was more enthusiasm for some of them maybe you could have coordinated it that's
Corey
38:40
that's that's not the case anymore there is there is nothing unfortunately
Corey
38:44
unfortunately that the Liberals now have from like a real asset standpoint that they can bring to a new political the only
Carter
38:49
only people who'd be even looking at jumping in with the with the liberals would have been the alberta party and right now the fortunes of the alberta party are such that they don't even need to consider it
Zain
38:58
it so let's talk about that let's talk about the fortunes of the alberta party their one-man show their leader greg clark was sworn in now
Zain
39:04
now greg's been getting some good recent media attention he's been talked about the the shredding the
Zain
39:09
the files he's talking about the mla allowances he's getting on on the political pages so
Zain
39:14
so my My question to you is, first of all, what is the future for Greg? What is the moves he has to make? And is this the right strategy? Should he be cutting down the current government or should he be inflating them to increase expectations? Well,
Corey
39:24
Well, Zane, first I want to know what political pages you're reading because those stories aren't bubbling out to the public. He was on QR77
Carter
39:29
QR77 yesterday. He was on CBC this morning. All on should the housing allowance, the
Carter
39:36
the $1,900 housing allowance that is paid to MLAs with over 60 kilometers. How many times have you seen
Zain
39:40
seen David Swan in the newspaper in the last couple of weeks compared
Carter
39:42
compared to Greg? listen
Carter
39:44
he's getting media it's small ball though he's he's defined he's a one-man show he's taken itty-bitty little little hits and he's getting himself in the newspaper and my advice to him has been don't
Carter
39:57
don't do that start start to try and assign you know put yourself in a position where you're actually you're going to get uh talk about something that matters the the he needs to start positioning himself as though he is the third place party in the legislature and right now he's He's acting like a bloodless
Corey
40:12
bloodless technocrat. He's talking about things that are rather— Unpackage that a little bit. Yeah, well, shredding should never have happened. That's not true. Even Notley is saying that. No, she is. Okay, you're right. If improper shredding was happening, improper shredding should not have happened. But
Carter
40:27
But there's no evidence that it did. But he took that low-hanging fruit, and
Carter
40:30
he hit the ball because everybody believed they were corrupt.
Corey
40:33
corrupt. But here's what a leader does. A leader did what Notley did, which is says, I'm stepping in. We're going to get to the bottom of this. What Greg Clark provided instead was a master's seminar on records management.
Corey
40:46
The next thing is this MLA housing allowance. It's the same sort of thing. It is so inside the beltline thinking. It's just it doesn't work.
Carter
40:58
I mean, it's easy to go in and get the media and just be on the media and
Carter
41:02
and to be all
Carter
41:04
all over getting attention. tension.
Carter
41:06
But there's no election to be run tomorrow.
Carter
41:08
His name's not going to be on a ballot. It's not going to matter in the overall scheme of things. His performance in the legislature in the mini-session isn't going to define the Alberta Party's fortunes moving forward. What's going to define the Alberta Party's fortunes moving forward is can they win a seat in
Carter
41:24
in the next by-election?
Carter
41:25
And when I say even win a seat, can they even be competitive?
Carter
41:28
Right now, Greg Clark won a seat. He won his seat the same way that David Swan won his seat, based on the popularity of one individual we
Carter
41:35
we are hypothesizing very strongly that david swan has no cards left to play in calgary foothills does
Carter
41:41
does greg clark have a card left to play in calgary foothills if
Carter
41:44
if he does and he is able to play with the big kids then we have the beginning of a movement is that the sole measurement in the next six
Zain
41:52
yeah i don't think no
Corey
41:54
no i think that there's also some um internal plays between uh between caucuses i i do think that some of the pcs could be shaken free i think I think that Greg could expand his caucus. The by-election could be the cherry on the top.
Carter
42:07
The by-election facilitates the PCs moving. First of all, the PCs have to move to independent before they can move anywhere else. We've seen that the direct move is just – It doesn't work. It
Carter
42:16
doesn't work. So they have to move to independent. So they move to independent and they're just going to sit there and
Carter
42:21
and they're going to watch what happens.
Carter
42:23
And here are the things that they're going to evaluate. Can you raise money and
Carter
42:27
and can you help me hold my seat if I want to still be an MLA? If I don't want to be an MLA, I'll
Carter
42:31
I'll go and do other things. You know, Sandra Janssen, who's
Carter
42:35
massively with the Alberta Party,
Carter
42:39
has two choices in life, continue
Carter
42:41
continue to be an MLA or stop being an MLA.
Carter
42:44
And at some point, if
Carter
42:45
if you're not going to win the next election, you stop being an MLA on your terms because you can go and find a job. You find a job. It's easier to find a job when you have a job, right?
Zain
42:55
Okay, let's move on to our next segment. Now, this is a new segment called Fortune Cookie Messaging. Guys, as strategists every now and then, you have to lift a finger. Actually, no one knows what you guys do on the campaign.
Carter
43:05
campaign. No one knows what we do. No one knows what
Zain
43:07
what we do. And no one knows what the job description really is. But sometimes you have to lift a finger and provide some key message advice. So what I want you to do is
Zain
43:15
is I'm going to list three situations that are current in Alberta politics, and I want you to give me the fortune cookie or the very short or trite version of the key message that you would provide to the three individuals. Does that make
Carter
43:27
make sense? Carter, are you on board? I've never been more excited than I am for this particular session because this is going to go so badly.
Corey
43:33
Now, Steven, if you break out a fake Chinese accent, I will be turning off the recording. Let me tell you something.
Carter
43:40
something. First of all, if I do a fake accent, it's going to come out
Zain
43:43
out as East India.
Carter
43:44
It's every accent I've ever done.
Zain
43:46
done. And the reason is it's not because it's racist, it's because it's bad. I mean,
Carter
43:50
mean, I guess it's more racist
Zain
43:53
But nonetheless, let's move on.
Carter
43:53
on. I'm not even doing accents. You don't understand the rules.
Zain
43:55
rules. It doesn't matter. We'll let Corey win this whole game through and through. Okay.
Zain
43:59
Deborah Drever gets asked, what do you have to say for your past social media presence? What is the fortune cookie message that you give her? Corey.
Corey
44:09
The voice of a thousand tweets is silenced by silence itself.
Zain
44:16
That's not bad. Stephen Carter, do you want to play the game?
Carter
44:18
Yeah. Your shoes will make you happy today.
Carter
44:22
In other words, all she's going to care about is internal. How does she make herself feel? How big is this fucking fortune
Zain
44:31
Okay, I'm done with
Zain
44:34
Move on. Okay, hopefully do better next round.
Zain
44:37
Dave Egan has to apologize for criticizing the bus driver that was assaulted after he kicked off two students off a bus. What is Dave Egan's apology? Corey,
Zain
44:45
Corey, the fortune cookie message.
Zain
44:49
My sympathy goes round
Carter
44:54
Sorry. I learned a lot from my mistakes. I learned a lot today.
Zain
44:59
cory's way better at this game okay
Carter
45:01
okay last one cheating too
Zain
45:02
too this is the best part jordan
Zain
45:04
jordan lean who is on the pc board of directors takes to social media to criticize the new tobacco legislation while doing so he calls our new health minister sarah hoffman morbidly obese if you're jordan lean cory what
Zain
45:15
what is the fortune cookie key message that you give him no
Corey
45:19
no weight is stupider than the weight of idiocy
Zain
45:28
i'm not even gonna let you try
Zain
45:33
i don't think people know this about our show you guys don't get to see these questions beforehand no no okay so that's why i'm doing so badly in this segment and he's crushing me okay do you want to take a crackhead or do we just want to take a pass no okay Okay, I will let you
Zain
45:51
Let's go to our final segment, the over-under, the lightning round. That was very well played, Corey. Thank
Zain
45:59
Over-under. This is just a speculative question. Does the PC debt equal more than $2.5 million? Corey? Under. Under. Carter? Over. Over.
Zain
46:07
Over-under. The PC fundraising total for the next quarter is $50
Zain
46:16
I think it'll be $250,000. Interesting. Okay.
Zain
46:19
Which party does the next MLA go to sit as an independent from? So which party do they come from? The next independent MLA, which party do they come from? PCs. PCs! Interesting.
Zain
46:29
Which party leader, provincially,
Zain
46:31
wins Stampede? I put wins in air quotes. Who wins this Stampede?
Corey
46:36
You know, David Swan.
Corey
46:38
He always dresses okay for Stampede. No, no.
Carter
46:40
It's not about dress this time. It's going to be Brian Jean, but I would put Rachel Motley a very close second. Does
Zain
46:48
Does the Alberta Party come in third place or better in the Calgary Foothills by-election?
Zain
46:53
The Alberta Party? Yeah. Better.
Zain
46:57
have to come in better. Interesting. All things considered, two weeks in, your rating of the NDP from a scale of 1 to 10?
Zain
47:11
We avoided the NDP this podcast simply
Zain
47:14
label. Yeah, but he still has to be a
Zain
47:16
He finds a way.
Carter
47:17
This could be renamed two strategists and a sycophant,
Zain
47:20
is what I'm saying.
Zain
47:23
Over, under, five times. How many times does the throne speech mention the word stable? Over, under on five times. Oh, boy. Oh, I'm right on it. On the throne speech,
Carter
47:33
I think it's going to be over. Over?
Zain
47:36
The biggest NDP platform tenant that no one is talking about right now.
Corey
47:42
Well, that nobody is talking about, I think, is aboriginal. But the most important. Let's go with that. Yeah, let's go with what I think is the electricity, which we've talked about here. Electricity. Yeah,
Carter
47:51
Yeah, so that's the phasing out of coal-generated power. It's going to be significant.
Carter
47:58
How about the lack of a health care plan? Interesting. How about the fact that there doesn't seem to be anything vaguely resembling a plan in health care? Interesting.
Zain
48:04
Interesting. Well, that is a wrap. Episode 533 of The Strategist. Just a reminder, our live show at
Zain
48:10
at the Engineered Air Theater. I'm going to start a company called Air Engineered. I feel like it's a great name.
Carter
48:14
name. I'm telling you,
Zain
48:15
Air. Barrett Theater in Calgary, June 15th, 7 o'clock are the doors. RSVP at live.thestrategies.ca. I'm Zane Villagy. With me, Corey Hogan, Stephen Carter. See you next time.