Episode 532: A Baker's Dozen (minus one)

2015-05-25

Stephen Carter and Corey Hogan talk about Rachel Notley's swearing in and the new twelve person cabinet. Which ministers were expected? What were the surprises? What does this mean for federal politics? And was Corey given a free NDP membership? Zain Velji, as always, picks the questions and keeps everybody in line. Get Thursday episodes, access to hundreds of old episodes, and bonus content on Patreon

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Transcript

Zain 0:01
This is A Strategist, episode 532, with
Zain 0:05
with my special guests, Corey Hogan, Stephen Carter. Guys, how are you? I'm excellent,
Carter 0:09
excellent, excellent indeed. I'm
Zain 0:10
I'm really excited to be on the podcast.
Carter 0:12
Yeah, it's a big day for both of us. It is
Zain 0:14
is a bigger day for me to have you as our special guest on the show.
Zain 0:19
Guys, let's get into it. We were here in Edmonton today, recording from the Matrix Hotel, very close by to the Alberta Legislature, where today we saw the swearing-in of Rachel Notley and her cabinet. it so off the top give me what you guys saw today media's reporting there's 10,000 or so people sunny Sunday afternoon but I haven't seen anything like this in the past so I'd like to get your guys's insights as to what you saw and what you heard today as well yeah
Corey 0:41
yeah it was it was really good and and it was a real PR
Corey 0:45
PR optic win I think for the NDP as well Stephen you were talking to me and you said that
Corey 0:49
that we both did none of us really knew the people were there they were regular regular albert regular
Carter 0:54
regular human beings and and instead of uh when
Carter 0:56
when we had the swearing in for allison redford the swearing in was
Carter 1:00
was uh completely populated by people who were interested
Carter 1:03
interested in lobbying the government it
Carter 1:05
it was like all the lobby firms were there all the special interests were there that's
Carter 1:08
that's who came in popular and maybe and party workers which is in the pc's case almost synonymous with people who want something from the from the government sure uh that was not present today in fact it was families and kids
Carter 1:22
I didn't see many
Carter 1:23
many lobbyists at all yeah
Corey 1:26
mean I think there was a bunch of us all standing together and that was about it but yeah on
Corey 1:31
on top of that the tone that she struck I thought was really really telling and what was telling to me was not just that that calm steady let's not act too rashly speech that Rachel gave but the
Corey 1:47
the the audience was like okay okay through that and that was certainly targeted I think towards a broader Alberta the business community different interests perhaps who have been vested in the past and find themselves no longer vested interests but the applause lines what people actually cheered for were the environment for aboriginal for these issues that that I
Corey 2:06
I think are near and dear to the hearts of a lot of people who are very truly passionately excited to have a government that they think represents something other than the government we had before so go
Carter 2:15
go ahead Carter yeah I mean, I think that that's going to scare the crap out of downtown Calgary because downtown Calgary has forgotten that the government doesn't just necessarily need to represent their interests. And
Carter 2:24
And those interests can actually be aligned. The
Carter 2:27
The rest of the population and downtown Calgary actually have very similar expectations
Carter 2:31
expectations and hopes. It's just they have a very different way of explaining it.
Zain 2:35
So I want to talk about some of the words that we heard today. Corey, you and I were standing beside each other, and one of the words that came up multiple times in the premier's speech was the term stable. Stable. No, we've heard stable before by a national politician when he talks about his stable majority. But not to make too much light of it, but that was a term, a stable majority, that she brought up quite a few times today. What do you make of that in terms of the dynamics that this past week has brought for the NDP? I think the NDP
Corey 2:58
NDP understand language perhaps better than an Alberta government has previously. And the phrase stable majority says
Corey 3:05
says two things to two different audiences. And both are positive messages with those audiences. It's stable majority to New Democrats means we ain't going anywhere. We can't be pushed out. And stable majority to those who did not vote for the New Democrats says we are going to be measured in our approach. And so I think it was obviously a phrase that they repeated because it had some currency.
Corey 3:27
Makes sense. And I do think that that's a message they want to be giving to both those groups right now. I
Carter 3:31
I think that there's an intent question. I think when Stephen Harper uses his terminology, it is the intent to almost reinforce that this is his victory lap.
Carter 3:41
When Rachel Notley uses it, I think that it is intended to
Carter 3:44
to be less of a victory lap and more of a don't worry,
Carter 3:49
this is not going to be necessarily
Carter 3:51
necessarily what you're afraid of. This
Carter 3:53
This is going to be a government that is going to move in a stable fashion, to maintain stability in what is right now not a very stable industrial
Carter 4:03
financial future for Alberta. So
Zain 4:06
So Corey you said this was a PR win I would agree with you on that but on a different scale where did this rank for both of you guys in terms of authenticity today that's something that's a lot of people may argue has been missing in our political atmosphere here in Alberta did that rank highly or did you were you still skeptical at certain moments? I
Corey 4:21
think it was beautifully structured quote-unquote authenticity they did all of the right moves i have a hard time
Zain 4:26
time i want to stop you there because i think that's an interesting phrase beautifully
Corey 4:28
beautifully structured authenticity yeah i don't think it was necessarily real authenticity i believe the intentions were authentic but come on i mean walking out amongst the crowd you can't tell me that was a spontaneous outpouring of like public goodwill i i think um authentic
Carter 4:42
authentic doesn't mean spontaneity right like it doesn't have to be spontaneous to be authentic you can play every time she stands up in front of the microphone right now her
Carter 4:51
her beach her speech sounds exactly
Carter 4:54
we believe her to be.
Carter 4:57
Whereas, I'm going to pick on a federal leader.
Carter 5:00
do. Because, you know, this is fun. This will get me into nothing but trouble. Justin Trudeau's big problem right now is every time he opens his mouth, he doesn't sound authentic. He sounds like he's reading cue cards or he's in some sort of a dramatic production. And that bothers me, and I think as people get to know him, it'll bother him more. Jim Prentiss had not an authentic bone in his body when he was doing his interactions with the media or his interactions with video or his interactions with Albertans. And Rachel Notley, when she spoke today and when she spoke on election night and
Carter 5:32
every time that she's spoken in between comes across to me as someone who's authentic except when she's kicking the cow down the road and
Carter 5:39
doesn't want to deal with something. That's when she sounds like a politician. Well,
Zain 5:42
Well, I have a question there. And the question pretty much is that can authenticity as a structure
Zain 5:46
structure and a tactic be
Zain 5:48
be a negative sometimes? times? Can she be too true to herself too quickly? And does that inflate her expectations? I mean, we've seen it back to back speeches where she's had to the diversity of Alberta in many ways. Does that warm and fuzzy, which I think from my experiences where I'm experiencing the NDP right now, can that actually inflate expectations too much? Well, let's talk authenticity
Corey 6:08
authenticity because we've been banning the word about a lot. But yeah, I think she authentically cares. But I also think I think she's authentically a savvy politician, and she understands how she has to hit her marks. Whether or not you want to call that authentic or not, up
Corey 6:22
up to you. That's totally fine. But there's no question in my mind that she is acting the political pro as much as anything here. Well,
Carter 6:30
Well, let's keep in mind, I mean, this doesn't necessarily mean that this will not change. The two swearing-ins that I can think of off the top of my head that had this much expectation associated with them are Jim Prentiss and
Carter 6:41
and Alison Redford. Right.
Carter 6:42
Right. When Alison Redford was sworn in, it's easy to forget in the end of Alison Redford's career what the beginning was like.
Carter 6:50
And what the beginning of Alison Redford's career was like was
Carter 6:53
was like what I saw today.
Carter 6:54
Now, we didn't have 10,000 people in front of the legislature. It was October.
Carter 6:58
It was a different time. It was a different place, a
Carter 7:02
a different structure. But people
Carter 7:03
people were genuinely excited about the change that she was going to be able to bring. that raised expectations yeah
Carter 7:11
which in turn resulted in in a giant downfall that's
Zain 7:14
that's interesting and i think that's a litmus test we're going to have to keep our eye on as we as we do more of these um going forward listen i will say yeah go ahead
Corey 7:22
allison redford was uh was unable to exact change because of uh
Corey 7:27
uh her own party i
Corey 7:29
i i think rachel notley will not have that problem so yes the expectations will be difficult to meet i certainly believe that but i also think that that Alison Redford fought a lot with the horners of the world, fought a lot with individuals who simply did not want to give the kind of change that she wanted to give.
Zain 7:45
Yeah, you're right. The internal mandate there is very interesting. You had Brian Mason hand this party over to her and say, go drive. So you've got the most senior person in the party ready to give it over, and she's got that internal mandate. I do want to move it on because I think one of the bigger things that people were looking forward to today, outside of the pageantry and the fun and the frozen treats, was who the 11 people that were getting named into Cabinet would be like. So let's move to our first segment of the show called A Baker's Dozen Minus One. Stephen, I want to lead this off to you initially, because you were part and parcel of creating that first Cabinet after Alison Redford won her leadership. So enlighten
Zain 8:21
enlighten us a little bit as to what that process looks like in
Zain 8:25
in terms of constructing a Cabinet. You've got your MLAs on the board. Everyone's vying for a job. It's the nicest people, the nicest version of people you're going to see.
Zain 8:33
until you find out who ministers are. What does that process look like when
Zain 8:37
when you're creating a cabinet?
Carter 8:39
Well the first thing is you decide on what your departments are going to be.
Carter 8:42
So the department change that we made with Alison Redford, the significant one, was the creation of the Human Services Department. So that was a massive change. So we put all these different ministries together and we were creating this giant muck that was the Human Services Department.
Carter 8:59
Once we'd done that, then it became a question of okay who's going to lead these various departments and you throw up a few names on the wall and everything stays kind of in a draft format and every one of your mlas uh is listed but
Carter 9:11
but you throw a few of them up that are absolutes who do we absolutely need to put into cabinet for us dave hancock uh was at the very top of the list because he was he
Carter 9:21
he was he was on the other team like he'd worked for mar everybody was on the other team with alice except one yeah and the guy who was It was not on our team we didn't keep.
Carter 9:34
But Hancock had such a diverse experience that we knew that he needed to run that human services ministry. So that one kind of got penned in very
Carter 9:42
very largely, big font. But then everybody else, you know, aside
Carter 9:48
aside from a very small handful, you don't have a must-include list. list. Even with this caucus, it was as experienced relatively as
Carter 9:56
as the Alison Redford caucus. Then comes the problem. Once you get down to those final ministries, you start to try and figure out, have
Carter 10:05
have we balanced everything?
Carter 10:07
Now, the balance that we had to strike was regional.
Carter 10:10
We didn't worry about gender because
Carter 10:12
because we had the female premier, not least done a much better job of balancing gender right
Carter 10:18
split it in half we did have to try and manage minorities notley arguably hasn't done as a good a job of our of bringing in a minority face and then we had to we had to manage regionalism and and i think that not least done a fairly good job of
Carter 10:32
of managing the regionalism i'm not sure we're calgary's going to be super thrilled with only three uh
Carter 10:36
uh cabinet ministers but there's
Zain 10:38
11 outside of her right so yeah
Carter 10:41
only 11 so there's 12 total. The bakers dotted in minus one.
Carter 10:46
And Calgary, instead of having a large footprint, has a three minister footprint. To be fair, four
Corey 10:52
four would give Calgary its proportion of the population. One
Carter 10:59
get hypersensitive about these things. And
Carter 11:01
And we were trying to balance all of those, and that's the problem, is that balance. And then we had to balance right-wingers and centrists.
Carter 11:08
And that was the hardest ones. Because you get get to that place and you're like okay we are going to have to put a crazy right winger who's not competent into cabinet and he's going to have to be justice minister so and
Carter 11:22
no names named i wouldn't
Zain 11:23
wouldn't name that name but tell me this do you know with two questions here so number one
Zain 11:28
how many cooks are in the kitchen doing this with you your chief of staff to to the premier who who else is involved oh
Carter 11:33
oh uh upwards of five to seven people okay but
Carter 11:37
at the end of the day premier
Carter 11:39
premier makes the choices. Right.
Carter 11:43
transition team is putting names on the wall, trying to explain why the reasons are there.
Carter 11:48
But ultimately, Alison Redford was the one who came in and moved a couple of names on the board, up
Carter 11:53
up and down and off, which
Carter 11:54
which was her prerogative.
Zain 11:56
Okay, so let's talk a little bit about what transpired today with our ministry. So, you know, Stephen, during Alison's time, and I
Zain 12:03
I believe at some point she had around 20 or or so ministers and associate ministers that were in cabinet. Today, we have 12, including the premier. Now, that does not mean that there's been an actual reduction in ministries because sometimes we saw this combination. But let's talk a little bit about the structure. What do you guys make of the structure of the ministries that have transpired here today? And I'm thinking, you know, we've got transport with infrastructure. We've put environment with parks. And we've also added, what is it, status of women to that portfolio. And your top line thoughts on what the structure looks like? I thought
Zain 12:37
it was a good combination of obvious
Corey 12:38
obvious and clever. I think the obvious ones, infrastructure and transportation, that's obvious, right? It has to
Corey 12:45
be. Health and seniors, given that long-term care was such a focus of the NDP platform in health,
Corey 12:50
health, I think that's obvious. Some of them were less obvious, but in the main...
Carter 12:56
main... Education, culture and tourism?
Carter 12:59
mean, how does that fit? However,
Corey 13:01
However, higher ed was split in a different portfolio higher ed was split in with labor i believe yes
Zain 13:06
yes with labor and innovation that's
Corey 13:07
and that makes sense to me because we're talking about training people that doesn't make sense to me
Carter 13:12
actually angers me oh
Carter 13:13
and angers me because that you came
Zain 13:14
came up with higher ed and innovation no
Carter 13:16
no that was that predated okay okay
Carter 13:18
um but the idea that the only reason that we have higher education is to feed into a job force is one of the reasons that we have this this continual problem of diversification of our economy. If we had higher education leading to higher education outcomes
Carter 13:35
and higher thought, we'd be fine.
Corey 13:38
Yeah, I mean, that's a great philosophy. But the reality is a lot of higher ed involves trade schools and things that are, frankly, a lot more bread and butter than that. I think it made a lot of sense. And I think it showed a pragmatism that the NDs are going to be very keen to show to the public as a whole. That made sense to me, and I thought it was clever.
Corey 13:55
It was a good combination.
Corey 13:57
What will be interesting is whether or not there's not some internal pressures
Corey 14:03
pressures or ultimately inconsistencies between some of these ministries and the pressures that those ministers are going to have to deal with.
Carter 14:09
I look at seniors and health, and I know how high-touch both of those ministries are. So a seniors ministry on one level is
Carter 14:15
is relatively straightforward. It is an adjunct to health.
Carter 14:19
But the reason that it is separate is there is so much going on in
Carter 14:22
in the seniors ministry at any given time that
Carter 14:25
that it becomes very challenging to get it all in. You
Zain 14:27
You know, Carter, you talked earlier about looking at the skills you have on the board. When we were standing around trying to predict who would get
Zain 14:33
get some of these ministries, we tried to make some, what
Zain 14:35
what we'd say, pretty congruent comparisons, right? We said, oh, let's, well,
Zain 14:39
well, Egan was a critic of health on the other side, so that's going to be a shoo-in for him. And we looked at Hoffman as the former education Edmonton School Board chair, and we thought that would be a shoo-in. Well, some people did. Some people, okay, some
Carter 14:51
some people. We just acknowledged that Corey Hogan did win the pool. And he's got $10 of my money because you are too cheap to pay. This podcast is nothing
Zain 15:00
nothing but for his ego, I feel
Zain 15:02
I am getting frustrated. Yeah, it
Carter 15:03
it totally is. And
Zain 15:04
And he wants that acknowledgement for
Corey 15:06
a good portion of it as well. I would just like to say, Sarah Hoffman Health, somebody at this table thought that meant a lot
Zain 15:11
lot of things. Okay, but tell me about that. Tell me about what a lot of sense means. Because if you've got people who have got particular, let's say, expertise or past history in an area, how do you look at positioning them in a totally different area? Carter, did you go through this? Okay, but,
Corey 15:25
like, board experience, hands-off, having to manage finances but not having all of the reins, that's health, guys. I mean, that's perfect. Sarah Hoffman's experience is perfect. The
Zain 15:33
The content material there, education, certainly. But I get that, yes. Okay,
Carter 15:38
let's take Hoffman off the table and talk about Marg McCade-Boyd.
Carter 15:41
I mean, here you are, a minister of energy whose experience is all in education.
Carter 15:46
And I, honest to God, thought Rachel Notley was going to hold the energy portfolio within her office. That's what you
Zain 15:53
you and I were both saying before. Because
Carter 15:56
I don't know who Margaret Quaid-Boyd is. I'm not going to prejudge her performance.
Carter 16:02
if I'm in an office tower in downtown Calgary, I'm
Corey 16:07
Today, if I'm in an office tower, I'm Googling that name and I'm confused. I do think that that was one that could
Corey 16:13
could have unintended consequences. And look, I mean, it's not right. And I'm glad that they're destroying that old boys club to a certain extent. But this is a back-slapping ministry to a certain extent. And they've just gone out and said, no, it's not going to be that. And they're right.
Corey 16:29
But there is such a thing as leading from too far out front. And I wonder how this is going to be received. Talk
Zain 16:33
Talk to me about that. What do you mean by leading too far out front? Do you feel like it's just too much too quickly? Let's
Corey 16:38
Let's put it this way. And again, I don't want to be sounding like I endorse this. I think it's the worst thing ever. But the Petroleum Club was gender-exclusive to males until the 90s in downtown Calgary. What are
Corey 16:49
are we really talking about as far as the nature of that business? It's bad and it's going to have to change. And I'm glad it's going to change. But are we really expecting that energy, which is already on edge, is going to react
Corey 17:02
react warmly to somebody with no energy experience who's going to be coming in from a very different background? And it has nothing to do with gender. But we are talking about somebody who has no depth in energy and no networks to energy. Because, frankly, most of our energy ministers have
Corey 17:17
have limited depth. I
Zain 17:18
I mean, the same could have been said for the Premier prior to her winning the election. I mean, her picking up a phone and talking to all of the energy CEOs was effectively the start of those relationships. So I think having those relationships... But she's the Premier, and that says it's very
Zain 17:31
very important to her. Fair enough. Carter, where do you stand on that? You brought it up. You're saying you're confused
Zain 17:38
about that, as many people would be in downtown Calgary. But take
Zain 17:42
take a look at that ministry and take a look at a few other ones. What is your overall sentiment?
Carter 17:46
Well, I can make two cases. I can play this from both sides, right? So on the one side, I'm going to say Rachel Notley has held on to IIR, International Intergovernmental Relations. Really, the energy industry's biggest problems reside in that department. We need to find ways of reaching out to the prime minister, reaching out to the premier of Saskatchewan, the premier of British Columbia, premier of Quebec, premier of Ontario. Interesting. Name
Carter 18:09
We need to reach out to all of those premiers. Name them all, actually. And we need to develop a national strategy. That's international and intergovernmental affairs.
Carter 18:21
So I can make that case that she has held within her portfolio the most important part.
Carter 18:25
But the second half of it, as
Carter 18:27
as we are going into a royalty review,
Carter 18:31
to go into a royalty review with arguably someone who knows very little of the industry
Carter 18:36
is going to scare the crap out of that industry. Yeah,
Corey 18:39
Yeah, and to be honest, I don't know a lot about Marg McQuaid-Boyd. I know that she was a consultant for a while. I have to imagine in Alberta, that naturally means some oil and gas. But I think they would have emphasized that more on her bio if that was the case. If
Carter 18:52
If she'd worked for an oil and gas company as a consultant, that would have been mentioned. It would have been a consultant to small and medium-sized oil and gas companies. That's not what it said. Was
Zain 19:02
Was that the biggest surprise for you guys today?
Zain 19:05
Yeah, for me it was. In personnel or in position?
Corey 19:09
No, I think position. I looked at her resume, and it's a fairly solid resume. She's got a lot of experience. She's worked with the Fairview campus of Grand Prairie Regional College. She is that consultant. She's got the education. Very few of their caucus have master's degrees as far as I know. She has a master's degree. agree.
Corey 19:29
She's not an incompetent person. I wouldn't want anybody thinking that I'm suggesting that. I think she's a very competent person. And she was on that list that in my consulting life, I would say, real
Corey 19:39
real possibility for cabinet. But that said, the fact she was given this ministry surprised me.
Carter 19:45
me. But there's obviously a decision that has been made in the Premier's office that we are going to put people in areas that they are not currently
Carter 19:54
Laurie Sigurdsson comes from public interest alberta yeah
Carter 19:57
uh social worker she's got innovation in advanced education david egan former executive director for uh uh friends
Carter 20:05
friends for uh friends of medicare yeah he's in education now
Corey 20:09
now hold on but david egan was a teacher before i mean there are some really good synergies there
Zain 20:13
there are a few but you know what they're
Carter 20:15
they're known for is not joe
Zain 20:16
joe joe cc right joe cc joe that wouldn't
Zain 20:20
me joe social worker very you know affable counselor and now very affable i mean MLA becomes Finance
Corey 20:26
Finance and Treasury. They gave their most competent Calgary MLA their most powerful ministry, and that makes sense. Yeah, I mean,
Carter 20:32
mean, they basically made him President of the Treasury Board as well, which is arguably de facto Deputy Premier. Right.
Carter 20:39
They may not have a Deputy Premier, but this is a Deputy Premier position. So
Zain 20:43
So let's talk personnel rather than position. Which individual surprised you that was on the list? Was there any, I guess, is the question. Is there anyone
Zain 20:50
anyone that you said, oh, I don't know that name?
Corey 20:52
O'Neill Carlier. I think it is, the new Minister of Agriculture. And that's not to say that, again, I'll be honest, I didn't give a ton of thought to agriculture. But that one was,
Corey 21:02
that was the one I'm like, I don't really have a briefing ready for this individual.
Carter 21:06
Yeah, I mean, the
Carter 21:07
the people I expected to be there are there. It's 12 people, right?
Carter 21:12
right? It's tricky. I mean, I expected Dr. Turner to be there.
Carter 21:16
I think many people
Carter 21:17
did. And to have him not, I was worried that he'd get health, right?
Carter 21:20
right? Right, because I think he would have brought a physician's attitude towards health, and I don't think that that's what's needed.
Corey 21:27
you need an administrator's attitude towards health. I
Carter 21:29
I think you need an outsider's attitude towards health that is not beholden to the physicians, the nurses, or any of the other special interests in health care, including Friends
Corey 21:37
Friends of Medicare. I thought Irfan Sevier could have been justice. Kathleen Gainey, or Gainley, justice.
Corey 21:43
justice. That wasn't a huge surprise. No, she was actually more, yeah. There
Zain 21:47
was only a few that could have. Yeah,
Corey 21:49
Yeah, but that one was a bubble one for me. Yeah.
Corey 21:52
And again, I think she'll do great work.
Zain 21:55
Carter, you made a comment earlier. You said 12. It's tricky. Let's talk a little bit about the philosophy of 12, because I didn't get to touch on that earlier. Were you pro or against this smaller cabinet? A lot of amalgamation of ministries, but did
Zain 22:08
did she put her best foot forward, and is that the only option she had, or was there something more strategic and ideological with what she did today by only having the 12? I
Carter 22:16
I love this. You do? Oh, I do. I do. I do. I was advocating when we were
Carter 22:20
were trying to make the cabinet for Alison Redford to go small, go small, go small. What did you end up with on your
Zain 22:25
your first cabinet? Oh,
Carter 22:26
Oh, a gajillion. I think it was 18. 18? Okay. Half a dozen more. I think it was 18.
Carter 22:31
And 18 plus a few. I mean, you've got to remember, this is the cabinet. Then there's the others that are going to pop up. Yeah, right. You know, there's other things that people want. You've got your parliamentary secretaries,
Corey 22:40
secretaries, but you had your two bakers, a dozen minus eight.
Carter 22:43
Yeah, right. But this is a…
Corey 22:46
Yeah, that's how we do math.
Carter 22:47
Yeah, Baker's Dozen is the standard unit that we use. This is smart. The difficulty that we have is when, you
Carter 22:59
you know, in fact, my good friend Robert Hawks wrote, he's the reason we didn't. His
Carter 23:03
His view is that a smaller cabinet has less time to
Carter 23:06
to dig into issues and therefore is going to be more apt to be run by the public service.
Carter 23:11
Frankly, that's a good message today. We
Carter 23:13
We have a strong public service that can do great work and has done great work.
Carter 23:19
They will continue to make sure that this operates the way we need it to. And the changes that happen aren't radical changes. Just for the sake of change, the changes that are going to happen are considered changes that the ministers have thought about and are moving in the right direction. That's
Corey 23:33
That's interesting. Corey, do you have a thought on that? Well, no,
Corey 23:35
no, I agree. I think that that's a pretty good rundown of a caucus or a cabinet. And given that the cabinet is a smaller
Zain 23:46
too. Quick question. Who has the toughest road ahead?
Zain 23:49
The best minister? Hoffman. You
Zain 23:51
You think so? Oh, she's in desperate
Carter 23:52
desperate trouble there. Not because she's a bad person, but because anybody who gets health care, it's a death sentence. Yeah, remind
Zain 23:58
remind everyone what her ministry, again, is. Health and seniors. Health and seniors, that amalgamation of those two. For me, it's
Corey 24:03
it's either Hoffman, because that's always a hot file, or McQuaig-Boyd.
Corey 24:07
Interesting. I think energy could
Corey 24:10
could get really difficult with a royalty review and things of that nature coming up. Because let's be clear, we're not just talking about royalty review. We're talking about the phasing out of coal. That's going to be massive, and nobody's talking about that right now. I've got to tell you, that's going to have major... 43% of our energy comes from coal right now, or our electricity.
Corey 24:27
I shouldn't say that. 43% of our generation in the province comes from electricity. Yeah,
Carter 24:32
Yeah, but the generation at any given time, that 43% might be generating 50%, 60% of our power. at
Carter 24:37
at that moment because that capacity is always on, and
Carter 24:41
the others get turned off. So
Corey 24:43
So I think between the royalty review and electricity, she is going to have quite a difficult road ahead. Interesting. Who
Zain 24:52
Who has the most promising future in this cabinet? Shannon Phillips. Oh,
Carter 24:55
Oh, Shannon Phillips is an all-star.
Carter 24:57
She is a... This podcast
Zain 24:59
podcast has shown a lot of love to Shannon Phillips. Shannon
Carter 25:01
Shannon Phillips is a super strong, super intelligent member of the cabinet. And she was a super strong person before. I don't think she expected to win. She had plans of running in the federal election. Oh, no, no, no, no.
Corey 25:16
no. Shannon Phillips absolutely expected to win in Lethbridge West. I
Carter 25:19
I don't think so. She was going to be the candidate
Corey 25:21
Lethbridge. No, no, no, no. She
Carter 25:22
She hoped to win.
Corey 25:23
She didn't expect to win. Let's look at her portfolios right now. Environment and SRD, sustainable resources. Parks and recreation. You could stop right there. Which is the Amy Poehler one. That's a lot of fun.
Corey 25:34
as minister responsible for the status of women and deputy government house leader here's what she brings besides confidence um because by all accounts very confident yeah
Carter 25:43
yeah right very strong she
Corey 25:44
she has great roots within the party she has great roots outside of the party with organized labor she has a lot of credibility that she can put to bear and she has the respect of the premier she has a lot of credibility that she can put to bear on the problems that she's going to have to deal she's
Carter 26:01
yeah she's got unlimited potential yeah
Corey 26:03
yeah and let's be clear environment that's
Corey 26:04
that's that's going to be a circle to square okay
Zain 26:08
let's move on to our next section or segment i should say it's called for better or worse so i want to talk to you guys about some
Zain 26:14
some of the gaffes last week both on the ndp and pc side maybe not gaffes but reactions to situations and i want you guys to let me know if
Zain 26:21
if the action that was taken was for better or worse so let's start with the first one
Zain 26:25
relieving Debra Drever from caucus for her Instagram reporter. Was that for better or for worse? Should she have kept her and coached her, or was letting her go the right thing? I
Corey 26:33
I feel like Carter and I are going to disagree on this. I think it was for better. I was really, really impressed with the fact she gave the penalty a timeline because this absolves her entirely in the future of deciding whether or not to invite her back into caucus. For our listeners who don't know, that
Zain 26:46
that means she gave her like a...
Corey 26:47
Drever was essentially suspended from caucus for a year. Now, often what's happened in the past is PCs have suspended people from caucus with an indefinite timeline, and then they have to have an awkward political hit when they bring them back into the caucus. But by saying, one year, that's
Corey 27:01
that's your sentence, you served your sentence, you're back in, she's solved a future problem before she has it. I thought that was a really good way to take care of it. Carter,
Carter 27:10
I'm imagining that the reason that Deborah Drever was kicked out of caucus is because the day or two before, she sat down with the Premier and offered her heartfelt apology. and my
Carter 27:18
my guess is that just before she had that meeting she met with the chief of staff the deputy chief of staff or someone like that and
Carter 27:24
and was asked the following question is
Carter 27:27
is there anything else that we need to be worried about is
Carter 27:29
is there anything else that's going to embarrass us and deborah drever probably answered that question incorrectly and
Carter 27:34
and that's why deborah drever's out out of caucus because all
Carter 27:38
all of this could be cleaned up all of this could have been managed i'm a little disappointed with no no no listen
Corey 27:42
listen the gay boys thing that was really off-brand that was a problem it
Carter 27:46
it could have been cleaned up if they'd done it all at one time I'm
Carter 27:50
I'm actually disappointed with the NDP for
Carter 27:51
for not having done this during the campaign figured
Carter 27:54
figured it out and cleaned it because
Carter 27:56
because someone somewhere knew about this stuff this
Carter 27:59
this stuff has been coming out in dribs and drabs I
Carter 28:01
mean I'm disappointed with the NDP I'm disappointed with the PC war machine such
Carter 28:06
such as it was run by Donald Duck or something like that I mean how who's running that listen
Corey 28:11
listen I don't know if you've ever read a Donald Duck comic Mike, but he usually kind of stumbles into success. This is not. Okay,
Zain 28:17
moving on, moving on. You're my goofy. Okay, next situation. So Jim Prentiss got universally taken to school for his actions on election night, where he not only quit his seat, but quit as leader of the party
Zain 28:28
party at the same time. He came back in front of 1,200 people and dropped the mic again. Was
Zain 28:32
Was that for better or worse? Should he have just stayed at home, or was he showing up again to do another apology tour?
Corey 28:37
tour? For worse. It was just like, why would you, you did the, fuck you, I'm out of here already. And then you decided that you were going to move on and be like, I take all the blame for this, but fuck you, I'm out of here. I mean, he just, he kind of re-ran the same script that everybody reacted so negatively to before. Well,
Carter 28:55
Well, and you can see, I mean, MacIver had his own script. MacIver was going a totally different direction, which was the same direction that Stelmac took, the same direction that Redford took. Blame the guy before me. Prentice, everybody gets blamed who is just before me. And Prentice's being there must have made that the most awkward thing ever. Exactly. So
Corey 29:14
So the story becomes not PCs acknowledge mistakes, move on. It's PCs, internal warfare on the same stage, one speaker
Corey 29:21
after the other. Boom,
Corey 29:22
Boom, boom, boom. That was stupid. Fantastic.
Zain 29:23
So the biggest story of the week falls on the NDP side, where the NDP have recently gotten criticized with the RSVP link and the fundraising as associated with today's swearing-in ceremony. promoting they
Zain 29:34
kind of took a half measure where they removed the front page of the fundraising but still allowed the fundraising to go on in the back end what do you guys think for better or worse that that move that they made irsvp
Corey 29:42
irsvp did that i didn't think anything of it i i think that like this this beating the drum being like what a horrible thing we don't do this with transitions yet peter laughey didn't send an email okay i'll credit you that oh my god like i don't think that was simple
Carter 29:55
simple excuse me no excuse me i'm trying to be an apologist
Carter 29:59
the being an apologist for the NDP because
Carter 30:02
here's the reality here's the reality there may not have been a transition in Alberta from party to party but there has been a transition from party to party at the federal level the provincial all their provincial governments this is not a new thing and you do not use government resources to raise money you do not use a gun event that is paying been paid for by the people of Alberta you
Corey 30:24
you don't use winning an election to raise money oh sure you do Oh, that's
Carter 30:27
that's different. What are we talking about?
Carter 30:28
What we're talking about is holding the swearing in, being paid for by the people of Alberta. This is the legislature. Okay, but it didn't say this is your admission.
Corey 30:37
this is a really good thing. By the way, donate to the cause. Yeah,
Carter 30:41
No, it's not fine. That's fine. It's wrong. It crosses the line. If the PCs had done it, you'd have been all hell. No, I don't think I would have. Apologist. Okay,
Carter 30:49
Our next segment. For the apologist. Can we put that in the thing? I'm getting a brand
Corey 30:52
brand here. I don't know. I'm going to have
Corey 30:54
have to hate on the NDs
Corey 30:56
NDs in the next
Zain 30:56
You can, because the next segment is called Thomas Mulcair Strokes His Pole. Let's talk about Tom
Zain 31:07
Mulcair, the twinkle in his eye, the smile on his face. A new ECOS poll is out saying that the NDP are surging. Part
Zain 31:13
Part of that is probably due to Alberta.
Zain 31:15
Is it justified that Tom Mulcair is the happiest I have seen him in five years?
Corey 31:20
Is it justified that he's happy? Yes. Can he take credit for being happy? No. Yeah,
Carter 31:25
I mean, he's walking around saying that, you know, in some fashion, this is an NDP sweep.
Carter 31:29
This goes back to my words that I said a few podcasts
Carter 31:33
My advice to Rachel Notley, remember, you did not win this election. The
Carter 31:36
The PCs lost this election. People were not voting for the NDP. They were voting against the PCs. I think you'll
Zain 31:41
you'll find some people
Carter 31:42
people disagree with you
Zain 31:43
you on that. Yeah, I'm one of them. Oh,
Carter 31:44
Oh, for God's sake, you're one of them.
Zain 31:50
it before. I don't know why it surprises you. Yeah, I don't know why you're shocked here. Fake shock every single
Carter 31:54
I'm shocked that he hasn't come around to my way of thinking, or as I like to call it, the right way of thinking. You've answered the
Zain 32:01
the question, but I think there's an interesting subplot or sub-question there. He
Zain 32:04
He can't take credit for it. How does Tom
Zain 32:07
Tom Mulcair leverage this win in Alberta, and how does he package it as a message or an opportunity to take credit for it across the country, or can he?
Corey 32:14
he? This will help him in Alberta if only because of organizational strength that builds up by nature of being, I don't know, the government. But I think where this is better for Tom Mulcair is in places like Quebec in Ontario where they're like wow Alberta sees the NDP is a viable option I guess the NDP are a viable option and that's huge for him you like look I'm not I'm not ready to call this ballgame But you
Corey 32:37
you know gun to my head right now who's gonna end up with the most seats in the next Parliament I
Corey 32:41
I think it's Tom Mulcair. Oh
Corey 32:43
god on this someone
Carter 32:45
someone ship you a free NDP membership. What has happened here if that's all it takes is to become a
Zain 32:50
a shill is a free NDP
Zain 32:51
NDP membership. That is a low cost.
Carter 32:54
Look at this. I mean, this has got dozens of listeners, as we know. At least one dozen. We are the 185th
Corey 33:00
185th most popular podcast in Canada. That is true. That is true. Fuck you, dozens of listeners.
Carter 33:06
The monk debates are looking up at us.
Corey 33:09
But, can I tell you,
Corey 33:11
I live in Calgary Confederation. I am voting Liberal. Matt Grant, great candidate. We can talk more about how much I love Matt Grant's candidacy in a future podcast. This is not about out who I'm cheering for in the next election. Tom Mulcair has every reason to be ecstatic today. You think
Zain 33:24
think there's the level to sustain this? Yeah, exactly. Let's talk about that. Tell me why you think it's fleeting. It's
Carter 33:29
It's fleeting because it's something that was unexpected and unexpected leads to bumps. When something unexpected happens. Here's my question. Thomas Mulcair, what's your next trick? What's the next thing that you're going to pull out of your bag that's going to be unexpected that people are going to go, wow, that was impressive.
Zain 33:45
impressive. Well, we'll make him stroke his pole again. How
Carter 33:46
How does he stroke his pole more than one time? when you do it one time and one time only
Carter 33:51
you know what I think he's got
Corey 33:52
got the stamina to do it more
Corey 33:55
look here's what I think is going to happen he's going to go into those debates
Carter 34:01
got the staying power is that what you're suggesting no he's going to be in those debates
Zain 34:06
alright let's move on
Carter 34:07
on please God can we edit that part
Zain 34:09
part out probably can't but at the same time I would have one more question in this segment is
Zain 34:16
what does this mean for Justin Justin Trudeau. I think that's the most interesting question. Cross
Zain 34:19
-country in Alberta. Carter, on the last podcast, you said this is the biggest opportunity for Justin. Do you still agree with that analysis today?
Carter 34:27
I think that it is an opportunity. Oops. I think that he has to actually choose to take that opportunity.
Carter 34:35
He's missing opportunities right now because he doesn't know Corey and I were talking about this in the car on the way up. We were talking about how right now, most of the things that he is doing is can only be described as conservative light right he has not put forward a liberal policy in quite some time and that enables people like Thomas Mulcair to put forward liberal policies so if the Liberals don't start figuring it out and and Trudeau continues to be conservatives
Carter 35:03
then I think that this will bounce back to Thomas Mulcair I
Corey 35:05
I am I'm increasingly concerned I don't
Corey 35:09
don't want to start pulling fire alarms I'm not trying to be that guy but I
Corey 35:14
am increasingly concerned that the that the Liberals have gotten themselves into a position where
Corey 35:20
where they are not being driven by philosophy they're being driven by polls and as a result people don't know what to expect from them and as a result whenever they make an announcement half of their base gets mad and
Corey 35:33
until they can kind of better articulate that philosophical grounding that's leading to these decisions like their stance on bill 51 c-51 like their stance on taxes like their stance on Ukraine,
Corey 35:43
Ukraine, you name the stance, because there's not a common thread through them right now.
Corey 35:48
And that inherently leads to risk, because if people walk into that situation and say, I don't know where Justin's going to be on this, that, or the other thing,
Corey 35:58
he doesn't have trust. And how do you vote for somebody you don't trust?
Carter 36:01
I think there's an authentic question as well. Is he authentic when he speaks? I'm not sure that he believes the words.
Zain 36:08
Okay, let's move on to our last segment. this is the lightning round here we
Zain 36:13
go first question if you could create a new Instagram filter to describe this week for the NDP what would it be called
Corey 36:19
oh man you're hoping I'll be more clever than I am
Carter 36:23
Instagram filter great I'm gonna yeah
Zain 36:24
yeah Carter you old man it's a way where you post
Carter 36:27
post pictures what is Instagram that's
Zain 36:28
that's right okay we'll move on to that question clearly I've overestimated both of your ways
Carter 36:32
ways yeah you've overestimated the panelists Debra Trever
Zain 36:34
Trever does she make it back into caucus within that one year or after that one year after that one year yeah you think she does Carter Yeah,
Carter 36:39
Yeah, if she survives the next two weeks, then she's fine. Twelve
Zain 36:42
Twelve months from today, do the PCs have more than one employee?
Zain 36:46
Yeah. Oh, they do.
Corey 36:48
Wait, are we counting volunteer employees?
Carter 36:49
No, no. We're counting people who are paid. They used to in the past. They've got one guy who is a, what's
Zain 36:57
Oh, Evan. Evan. The guy fundraising
Carter 37:00
a great guy. Yeah, he's a great guy, but he's got an impossible task, and that's going to be to fundraise out.
Carter 37:05
If they didn't have the debt, then they could have more people, but they don't have
Corey 37:08
have any money. We could do a whole sidebar on what are the PCs at. Great.
Zain 37:12
Great. Very lightning. Over or under? Between now and the beginning of the federal election, Tom Mulcair shows up to Alberta five times. Over or under? Under. Under. Both of you. Under. Okay, interesting.
Zain 37:22
If you were to put your money on one of the 11 ministers who becomes a political star outside of Shannon Phillips, who would it be?
Zain 37:31
Joe Sisi. Yeah. I'm going to say Ganley. Interesting. My last question for you. Does David Swan stick around until the next election? I hope
Carter 37:38
hope not I don't
Zain 37:41
don't know why I'm ending on that note but that is The Strategist episode 532 with me Corey Hogan, Stephen Carter we will see you next time follow us on Twitter and subscribe to us on iTunes