Transcript
SPEAKER_02
0:04
This is The Strategist, episode 529. With me, Stephen Carter, Corey Hogan, as always. How you doing?
SPEAKER_02
0:11
Good. How are you? Stephen, are you there? I
Carter
0:12
I am. I am, in fact, here now. I'm all plugged in.
SPEAKER_02
0:14
in. You're getting your tech set up. You're all plugged in.
Carter
0:16
in. I'm all teched out. It's going to be great. I may have to refer to things in this episode. Well,
SPEAKER_02
0:20
Well, it is. I may have to Google. You may have to use a Google machine. In the final two days of AB Vote, guys,
SPEAKER_02
0:26
guys, you guys were both in this situation in 2012.
SPEAKER_02
0:31
Two days to go.
SPEAKER_02
0:33
You probably had a lot on your mind, but what exactly were you doing in this time frame leading up to the election? Well, a
Corey
0:38
a lot on our minds, very little to do. Our role is strategists, right? So when you hit the second last day of the campaign, if you're still making strategy, I
Corey
0:47
I mean, that would be a really, really bad sign, I think it's fair to say. I
Carter
0:51
I think we all went for lunch. The whole war room, we just went for lunch because there's nothing to do. You're going to throw out your last salvo of whatever you've got, but then
Carter
1:02
then it's all over.
Corey
1:04
Yeah, I think you and me actually exchanged some texts with our guesses, predictions. I think
Carter
1:08
think we did. I think we did. I think we were both pretty close to right, as I recall. There's
Corey
1:11
There's no point in fighting when the ballots are being cast like that. Because
Carter
1:15
There's nothing for us
SPEAKER_02
1:16
us to do. Is that a universal? You think that is true in this election? I guess I want to harken back to another question I have, which
SPEAKER_02
1:22
which I should have asked earlier. But frankly,
SPEAKER_02
1:25
you know, regardless of the outcome, what do you guys make of this election right now? If you were to summarize it very quickly, based
SPEAKER_02
1:31
based on where we're at, does this define all principle, all logic?
SPEAKER_02
1:35
logic? Where were you in your analysis? Well,
Carter
1:38
Well, I think the PC campaign defies all logic. First of all, they didn't run a campaign. So if you're looking to see what campaign was it,
Carter
1:46
there was no campaign. pain. They certainly didn't do any mid-course adjustments. The
Carter
1:50
The entire strategy seemed to be stand still and everybody will come back to us. And I think it's a really weird
Corey
1:56
weird strategy. Yeah, I don't know if I agree with that. I think it might have been worse. I think the strategy they picked was
Corey
2:02
was at the debate, they decided let's turn this two-front war into one-front war. I mean, we talked about this, but talk about your all-time great backfires. They
Corey
2:11
They elevated Rachel Notley way past where
Corey
2:14
where they could catch it. They're at a point now where they're mired in a tie with the Wild Rose, fighting for second.
Corey
2:21
And the NDP, by most polls, are up 10, 15 points with two days left. Yeah,
Carter
2:26
Yeah, and all they're doing is running around and saying, hey, it's 2012 again. We're going to be fine. And it's not 2012. It was a totally different election. And we also spent eight days in 2012 defining the other guys.
Carter
2:42
Where are the eight days of defining the other guys? I'm not seeing it in
SPEAKER_02
2:47
Okay, so I want to hit on that right there. You said this campaign was invisible, probably didn't exactly happen for the PCs. Does
SPEAKER_02
2:55
Does that mean they're actually trying to do something in the next 48 hours? Or is this like 2012 where you sit back and whatever happens, happens? Zane,
Carter
3:02
Zane, there's no time left. It is the final minute in the third period and you're down by four.
Carter
3:08
You can't do anything. There's no point in pulling the goalie. right
Carter
3:11
right the coach doesn't pull the goalie the only choice they have is to throw out the goons and if you look at if you look at twitter and facebook they're throwing out the goons that's all they've got there's
Corey
3:21
there's a lag time so you do something like this even if they had something entirely out of the park the fact is you need it to filter down to the average voter and there's just no time to do that at this point the last thing the average voter is going to remember uh unfortunately for them was their cavalcade of millionaires threatening to hold the province hostage for a pc government okay
Carter
3:40
okay so my can i ask a question is this okay yes you can ask a question i'll be someone in a in a war room somewhere think that
Corey
3:49
that was a good idea is
Corey
3:50
possible it doesn't seem possible to me i really do feel like these guys must have been freelancing but they must have done
Carter
3:57
done it on their own right
Corey
3:58
right like a freelance with a pat on the back and hey give it a shot guys i it because everybody did show up in the media and it was enough on message before it went horribly off message that they're at least paying attention to
SPEAKER_02
4:11
the pc fair to classify that as an utter disaster i
Corey
4:13
went out of my way to try to find some nugget of opinion that was in favor of that move i went to the darkest places on the internet we're talking like subreddits we're talking about you know calgary sun's comment section calgary sun's
Carter
4:28
sun's comment section where the darkest of the dark lurkers are there right these
Carter
4:32
are the evil ones that love nothing
Corey
4:36
there's not There was no support.
SPEAKER_02
4:37
Okay, so I want to move this along in a sense where let's talk a little bit about the
SPEAKER_02
4:41
the two faces of this election. We've got a viral
SPEAKER_02
4:44
viral campaign that is being waged
SPEAKER_02
4:48
Rachel Notley and the NDP, and you've got the long history of an efficient vote of the PCs.
SPEAKER_02
4:53
Why should we believe that this air game is going to win out?
Corey
5:00
has won out in so many other places around the world, and we're not immune to those trends. Alberta is not an island unto itself where the PCs are destined to govern forever I think that attitude is what's gotten the PCs into this position but
Corey
5:14
there's a lot of things going on for the NDP camp that aren't
Corey
5:19
aren't about ground game but maybe overwhelm ground game yeah I
SPEAKER_02
5:23
I want to kind of jump in there because there's a been a lot of you know PCs who have messaged me messaged you still thinking they can win a majority what could
SPEAKER_02
5:31
could they know or do they know or do you think they know that the general population isn't abreast of 10 straight polls of an NDP
SPEAKER_02
5:38
win or plurality? What could be going on there? I want to kind of go down that road a little bit. Well,
Carter
5:44
Well, I think it's delusion. I mean, I think that you have to rally the troops. And in order to rally the troops, you have to tell them that they can win. And I think Corey and I have both given this speech. You know, the polls are wrong. We've got a chance. You know, we're relying on this scant evidence that tells us that we're going to win and
Carter
6:02
and we've given that speech and sometimes it works out unbelievably
Carter
6:06
but more often than not you know whether you won six
Carter
6:09
six seven days before
Carter
6:12
the rest of it's just lying it's
Corey
6:14
it's true i mean one of the hardest parts about being the guys in charge is the amount of lies you have to tell your own team at
Corey
6:21
least in my case that was certainly true for the liberals i would talk to candidates regularly who would want a minute of my time it was a waste of my time and I knew that and they had no chance but you have to tell them they've got a chance I think that's a little bit of what's going on in the PCs right now I don't believe that the people who have their finger on the pulse see the numbers think that this is going to be the 55 seat majority that people I've been talking to said was announced to the war room for the PCs on Friday I'm
Carter
6:48
I'm not sure that we're getting you know the words straight from the war room right like it's not like the people in the We're picking up the phone and calling us and saying, well, you know, but we're hearing stuff that the people in the war room themselves know what's going on. And people, let's be honest, I mean, people in our war room knew that we were in trouble in 2012. Our floor wasn't nearly as low as the 2015
SPEAKER_02
7:12
2015 PCC. What do you mean by your floor wasn't as low? Oh,
Carter
7:15
Oh, well, we had 12 seats almost guaranteed in Edmonton. And we had the northern rural, I'm putting quotation marks around rural because you've got six or so suburban Edmonton ridings, that we were going to win. So we're all ready. We were near 20 without even getting into rural Alberta. The math was in
SPEAKER_02
7:34
in your favor then,
Carter
7:35
then, yes. So our lowest of the lows, the worst day that we had, we were walking into a 34-seat projection. projection uh no one in the pc party is walking into a 34 per seat seat projection and thinking that's a bad thing today or
Carter
7:50
or you know that's that could be their best government possible scenario so
SPEAKER_02
7:54
so i mean we've all worked on campaigns and being strategists and having worked on various levels we
SPEAKER_02
8:00
we know that numbers matter so i guess what i'm trying to ask is the same question in a different fashion is is
SPEAKER_02
8:06
is why should we not trust that the PCs may have internal voter IDs that that
SPEAKER_02
8:11
that beat out the the polls well I
Corey
8:14
I mean the selfish and kind of arrogant answer is we don't right I speak only for myself but I know it's true with Carter as well we get leaked these these polling numbers from everybody and their dog sometimes they're trying to spin us sometimes they're not but I'm getting leaks from pc associated uh i
Corey
8:33
i won't say pollsters but some pollsters and whatnot and and
Corey
8:36
and they are they are painting a very very grim picture right now steven yeah
Carter
8:40
yeah i mean uh we're seeing a lot of polls and polls that didn't exist in in 2012 so
Carter
8:46
so in 2012 i think the pc war room was the only group of people getting
Carter
8:50
getting riding by riding poles and
Carter
8:52
and we were getting riding by riding poles and that gave gave us a ton of confidence that we were still ahead. And there was mostly province-wide polls.
Carter
9:02
that weakness in the polling has been addressed. And now I've seen two polls, different
Carter
9:13
where the NDP is running a candidate, arguably
Carter
9:16
arguably shouldn't be running,
Carter
9:18
right? You mean a
SPEAKER_02
9:21
a candidate who may not have the experience to run? What do you mean by that?
Carter
9:24
Let's go with not experienced. Sure, let's go with that. That's a good way of putting it. He's not experienced. He doesn't know what he's doing. He's all but a paper candidate because when the NDP
Carter
9:33
NDP announced that they were running 87 candidates, no one thought, well, they got 87 really good ones.
Carter
9:40
Calgary Lockwood should not be in play, and it's in play, and
Carter
9:45
and not just a little bit. So now we're all seeing riding by riding, whereas the only ones that saw it in 2012 was the PC boardroom. Okay,
SPEAKER_02
9:54
Okay, so that's interesting. Speaking of polls, there was one put out last week by Main Street Technologies in which they wrote a cover that
SPEAKER_02
10:01
that said, regardless of voter turnout, this
SPEAKER_02
10:04
this election will go to the NDP. Now, he had a ban from anywhere between 20 to 35 percent. Audacious, I understand.
Corey
10:11
He's doubled down today. He said that now he's calling an NDP majority. jury absolutely
SPEAKER_02
10:16
absolutely and i should clarify keto is a good friend and and you know he we do chat but i
SPEAKER_02
10:21
guess i want to ask you guys this
SPEAKER_02
10:22
this does come down to people showing up at the polls what what
SPEAKER_02
10:26
what is the value of voter turnout in this election everything everything
Carter
10:30
i mean the by-election in in uh in october uh
Carter
10:34
uh in calgary elbow it was all it was all get out the vote that won that election for gordon dirks he
Carter
10:40
he was able to go into every one of the special polls I went back and looked at the numbers. He destroyed in the special polls, special polls for people who aren't
Carter
10:47
paying attention or the poll, the mobile polls that literally go into seniors homes and
Carter
10:51
collect ballots and put them into the ballot box because, you know, the mobility challenged. Those
Carter
10:56
Those ones voted massively.
Carter
10:57
massively. Those voters voted massively for the PCs. He got those votes. Then he mobilized for the advanced polls.
Carter
11:04
So the GOTV was
Carter
11:06
was responsible, from what I could tell, for
Carter
11:10
probably 700 of that 800 vote victory. And that GOTV was focused entirely on people most likely to vote. I'll tell you, if the ballot box came to you, Zane, you'd be more likely to vote than if you had to go to the ballot box.
SPEAKER_02
11:23
Yeah, fair enough. But I want to ask you that question. So we've acknowledged that voter turnout. You have, Stephen, and Corey, I'll get to you in a second.
SPEAKER_02
11:30
You've acknowledged that voter turnout is everything. thing we
SPEAKER_02
11:33
we have a campaign right now run by the ndp that has paper
SPEAKER_02
11:36
paper candidates in calgary hawkwood and several other constituencies if
SPEAKER_02
11:40
if they do not have identified vote how
SPEAKER_02
11:42
how does the vote show up and i don't mean to sound too elementary but i think this is a point we need to discuss well
Corey
11:48
it is and it isn't because you're conflating get out the vote with people getting out and voting it's true the new democrats talks to me about that yeah the new democrats do not have the ground game strength ranked writing by writing to to be identifying and then pulling that but that's always about efficiency there
Corey
12:05
is vote there for the new democrats that was not there before and we're seeing it not
Corey
12:09
not just one or two points up we're not talking about the pcs navigating through those rocky waters and getting 700 votes as we talked about in calgary elbow these
Corey
12:19
these numbers are showing the pcs losing those writings by a lot more than 700 votes at this point they don't have to get out the vote it's true but the nds have something a lot better than that and that's popularity well
Carter
12:29
well that's what nenshi had in 2010 he was a popular candidate yeah so yeah so uh we had a bare minimum gotv uh mark doll ran the gotv ran a great gotv uh
Carter
12:41
uh but let's be clear we did not have 140 000 people identified that were going to vote for now he had nenshi yeah
Carter
12:46
yeah this was not going to happen Right. So what
Carter
12:50
what happened was this populist movement that
Carter
12:53
that put people out to vote. And it was
Carter
12:56
was on Twitter. It was on Facebook. And it was, you
Carter
13:00
people telling their neighbors who they're going to vote for. People
Carter
13:02
People right now seem
Carter
13:04
seem to be telling their neighbors that they're going to vote for the NDP.
Carter
13:07
The difference is I see that on Twitter massively.
Carter
13:11
I'm not seeing as much on Facebook. Facebook is a more interesting subset because everybody's on Facebook. Right. And a very small group of people are on Twitter. Right. And I'm seeing Facebook a lot more. I am afraid of an NDP government. Am
SPEAKER_02
13:27
Am I hearing you right? You're saying we're at that tipping point where we are not getting out the vote, but people are going to get out and vote? Oh, yeah.
Corey
13:33
Yeah, I think so. Not necessarily everywhere. I mean, it varies community by community. As far as I can tell, I went down to here's
Corey
13:40
here's your anecdata for the day. I went down to Oak Ridge yesterday, where I grew up, where my parents still live.
Corey
13:47
And judging by there, the sign war has been won five to one by REMAX. Nobody cares. Nobody's got a sign on their lawn.
Corey
13:56
I think there is a certain exhaustion.
Corey
13:59
But I do think that the people who are most excited about this are the New Democrat supporters.
SPEAKER_02
14:04
I want to hit on something that goes hand in hand with the final week or the final couple of days. And that's what we talked about last time around
SPEAKER_02
14:11
around opposition research. Now, you guys both sat around this table and said that
SPEAKER_02
14:15
that the PCs would be looking at 86 other candidates and looking at their records and finding something that they could action.
SPEAKER_02
14:23
It is now Sunday evening when we're recording this, and I see nothing out there. And you guys say it's too late to actually get something out into
SPEAKER_02
14:29
into the mainstream to resonate.
SPEAKER_02
14:32
What happened there, and how does opposition research go wrong or not yield anything in such a desperate situation? Well,
Corey
14:38
Well, I'm sure they tried, and I saw a few things that were really pretty pitiful, like, oh, this guy was a fan of Hugo Chavez, this new Democrat candidate, ergo socialism, you know?
Carter
14:50
all I'm seeing is they've decided to go with this really broad, these are the, you know, elect the socialists and this is what happens, as opposed to finding a
Carter
15:00
a small thing that could be blown into a big issue. And
Carter
15:04
I think that, frankly, that's really missing the boat because the small thing that can be blown into a big issue, all
Carter
15:09
all of those have
Carter
15:10
have gone against the PCs.
SPEAKER_02
15:13
And that brings us to our next segment. Now, as you know, on this show, we have many segments we use multiple times. So here is a segment that we're going to go back to again.
SPEAKER_02
15:23
When it rains, it pours. Okay, so I want you guys to assess
Carter
15:28
all of the crap
SPEAKER_02
15:29
that has gone wrong for the PCs in the last six days. And I'm going to, for those who are listening and may have been under a rock for
SPEAKER_02
15:37
for the last week, let me list to you what I think is a relatively comprehensive list of
SPEAKER_02
15:42
of all the scandals over the last seven days. Okay, we
SPEAKER_02
15:47
Jamie Law going kamikaze on the PCs. That initiated Jonathan Dennis' response in the leaked text messages. We
SPEAKER_02
15:53
We had Ralph Klein's daughter coming out and supporting the NDP. We
SPEAKER_02
15:56
We had a former education minister who worked under Peter Lougheed endorsing the NDP.
SPEAKER_02
16:01
Jim Prentice had two back-to-back horrid interviews. There
SPEAKER_02
16:05
There were five CEOs in Edmonton who came out and indicated that the province should support the PCs, and that fell
SPEAKER_02
16:12
fell like a ton of bricks.
SPEAKER_02
16:14
We had PC voters in McCall yelling at individuals at the door. We had PC volunteers yelling at individuals at the door. We had Gordon Dirks indicating that he was going to build schools in Calgary Elbow. We had Mike Allen, whose ongoing controversy as a candidate. it continued and we had Steven Mandel who
SPEAKER_02
16:35
had sent postcards to voters indicating they go to the wrong polling station so
SPEAKER_02
16:40
so I guess the question is that is a laundry list literally which if
SPEAKER_02
16:45
if any of these had the potential or does have the potential if on Tuesday evening the PCs lose of breaking the camel's back so there's
Corey
16:53
there's an old saying and that's if you like a man he
Corey
16:55
he can drop his plate of food in your lap and you won't care But if you hate him, the way he holds his fork will irritate you.
Corey
17:01
And there's a little bit of that going on. Everything that is minor and would otherwise maybe be ignored or said, it's not a big deal.
Corey
17:08
All that benefit of the doubt is gone and everything just plays into this narrative of a bumbling campaign. The New Democrats didn't have a perfect week, they had a pretty close to perfect week. But some
Corey
17:18
some of those gaffes you mentioned were so minor. I mean, the radio interview one, the counterpoint is Rachel Notley canceled at the last minute her radio interview claim she was way too busy and her schedule was released and it had nothing on it that
Corey
17:31
that wasn't a problem because that's not where the narrative is right now
Carter
17:35
which is not to say that that radio station didn't try and take that narrative to that place very
Corey
17:39
very true and i think they certainly tried
Corey
17:41
they had a case as well absolutely
Carter
17:43
absolutely they had a case i mean there was only one reason for them to cancel that interview they
Carter
17:47
they didn't want rachel notley on the radio saying anything stupid that's going to hurt them in the last four days quite
Carter
17:52
so they canceled the interview so so they could avoid that potential uh downfall uh
Carter
17:58
uh but it doesn't matter no
Carter
17:59
no one is talking about it this is the equivalent of robert stanfield dropping the football you
Carter
18:04
you know because when he drops the football uh that becomes the the the point where his campaign changes how many times did he catch it before then hundreds of times he's you know he was an athlete he he was he was someone that people look to and but here we have uh the golden boy jim prentice who's not not going to make any mistakes he's mistake free that's the whole point and and you just i don't know i lost track how many was that 15 mistakes i don't know but listen i think it makes a good point
SPEAKER_02
18:32
point some some bigger than others but you guys both believe that that these are just justifications to plug into the larger narrative in the final week i
Corey
18:41
would say there's a reason
Corey
18:42
reason people watch the weather channel we love it when it pours oh
Corey
18:45
yeah and uh now that's that this is the story The narrative is so much better that it's a campaign going off the rails than campaign screws up a bit, other campaign screws up a bit, too. That's not interesting. It is not
SPEAKER_02
18:57
not a narrative. This is the narrative. Well, to counter that, I do want to give the PCs some credence,
SPEAKER_02
19:03
credence, or a little bit. Well, listen, they have earned the endorsement of three major newspapers over the last couple
SPEAKER_02
19:09
couple of days. Okay,
Carter
19:10
Okay, well, in fairness, the Globe and Mail and
Carter
19:15
Okay, so let's be clear. There are the four newspapers, the Edmonton Sun, the Calgary Sun ran the same editorial. Okay, sure. The Herald and the Journal seem to have basically taken the same position, and the Global Mail. So I'm not convinced that any of those editorials matter. I actually tried to look for a correlation between major endorsements and success. success and what seemed to exist in the literature was that when when media has a large endorsement set like this it only matters if it fits within a narrative right
Carter
19:51
right so if the narrative is that this is going to happen anyways then it happens uh so barack obama gets endorsed by major major media outlets it starts to show in the inevitability it continues the momentum it does not counteract a
Carter
20:07
a momentum that is going against cory do you agree do you think the
Corey
20:13
-narrative or even part of it? Look, this is 2015. I'm not sure a newspaper endorsement even gets outside of a relatively small group of people. I'll tell
Carter
20:22
tell you, Twitter exploded and
Carter
20:25
and the comments on their pages exploded
Carter
20:29
and they weren't positive.
Corey
20:31
That's the other problem they have right now, especially the Edmonton Journal, who took a position so contrary to their readership. You have to wonder from a business standpoint whether that was a real miss. And what's fascinating about theirs in particular is the Edmonton Journal does not endorse. This is the first time I can remember the Edmonton Journal endorsing. Well,
Carter
20:47
Well, the Herald has taken these kind of nonsensical endorsement positions in the past, too, where I think it was in the last, or so our election, 2012.
Carter
20:58
I think they endorsed Danielle Smith. And then we had counter endorsements. I think we got Bob Remington's. But they ran a series of editorial writers' positions because
Carter
21:10
they didn't have unanimity.
Carter
21:12
Are you telling me that the Calgary Herald editorial board is
Carter
21:15
is unanimous in support of PC
Carter
21:18
Jim Prentiss? That doesn't even make sense to me. Now, I'm not Ezra Levant here. I'm not arguing that there's some sort of conspiracy that's coming from the Post Media headquarters in downtown Toronto.
Carter
21:32
But he sure as hell did. He sure
Carter
21:34
sure did. You're not
Carter
21:36
arguing that. I'm not not arguing that. Okay, I want
SPEAKER_02
21:37
want to move this along. You touched on this last point earlier. We talked about the PC attacks over the last week being
SPEAKER_02
21:45
Smart move, desperate move, what do you make of that? They didn't clearly have a smoking gun, so
SPEAKER_02
21:51
so they went with the broad attacks on the NDP. We saw it during the hockey game. They clearly have enough resources in the bank to air this out.
SPEAKER_02
21:58
What do you make of that move?
Carter
22:00
move? I think the bigger the attack, the less it matters. You have to hit with something specific for it to have a real resonance. And I don't think that the PCs have put together anything specific that has stuck to Rachel Notley at all.
Corey
22:16
Well, yeah, let me build on that. You can try to push people too far too fast. And I do believe, as I said last time, these guys are under the impression that Albertans believe
Corey
22:25
believe all the same things they believe about the New Democrats, that they're the socialist hordes.
Corey
22:30
And some of their attacks have been overreaches. And certainly the generalized ones, generalized without enough backup on specifics, is not going to do them any favors with a large subset of voters who are going to say, show your work. What are you saying this for? And
Carter
22:43
And missed opportunities. You know, Rachel
Carter
22:46
Rachel Notley is trying to run an Alberta-centric campaign. And in pops Thomas Mulcair at
Carter
22:53
the end of the week basically saying, way
Carter
22:56
way to go, Rachel. You're really executing this NDP platform the way we talked about in Red College. right like whatever you know whatever the hell it was uh but it it was a golden opportunity uh to to immediately say see the
Carter
23:10
the ndp or the ndp or the ndp and they missed it because they're in the middle of dealing with all these other problems their own shit okay
SPEAKER_02
23:16
okay interesting okay i want to move to another segment another segment um this is a first time segment i
SPEAKER_02
23:22
i like to call this pre-taped analysis now this show has been airing for many episodes and
SPEAKER_02
23:27
and i want to go through what i think are the four you
SPEAKER_02
23:30
know most likeliest scenarios that happen on tuesday and if any broadcaster radio station wants to pay
SPEAKER_02
23:35
pay us some royalties and take some of your pre-taped analysis and use it we
SPEAKER_02
23:39
we certainly be uh more than open to that for a small fee okay how
Carter
23:43
how small is the fee and we're gonna take it all we're
SPEAKER_02
23:45
we're not gonna see it at all oh
Carter
23:46
oh yeah it's all gonna go to zane as it always does as
SPEAKER_02
23:49
as it always does okay so the first scenario a pc minority what does that mean guys i mean obviously go beyond the minority government but what does that mean your top line pc
Corey
23:58
pc minority that's fascinating you know they say victory is contextual in elections and with a PC minority it seems everybody loses PCs lose their majority the wild rose and NDP fail to capitalize and
Corey
24:10
and the Liberals let's just assume they're not going to exist why
Carter
24:13
why I mean there are no there the PC minority is a very big window not to be clear as well it they could they could be at 25 seats and be asked to be to form the first government and I think the gym will try and form the first government. If it were me, I'd tell him, don't.
Carter
24:31
don't. If the LG comes to you, a lieutenant governor comes to you and says, will you be able to form a government that will have the confidence of the legislature? I
Carter
24:39
I would say no.
Carter
24:41
And then I would put it on to Brian Jean or
Carter
24:43
or on to Rachel Notley to try and form the first coalition.
SPEAKER_02
24:46
Well, here's my question to you, quickly on that.
SPEAKER_02
24:49
Minority government for the PCs, does Jim Prentiss even stick around? out?
Carter
24:53
Well, I think he has to for a little while if he's the government, because you can't cut and run that quick. I mean, but he's not here for a long time if this goes south. In fact, I think a lot of his candidates and a lot of his people, you think that Chief Rick Hansen signed up to be a backbench MLA, potentially sitting in the opposition side?
SPEAKER_02
25:16
Nothing wrong with representing the good people of Calgary across. Corey?
Corey
25:20
Well, you're asking me if the people of Calgary cross are good because we could go on them this
Corey
25:25
uh yeah i mean steven's right i hate to say it i always hate to say when steven's right but he'll
Corey
25:32
he'll stick around he'll stick around at least for a bit he has to he has no other options he's already quit his job at cipc yeah
Carter
25:38
yeah i mean that two million is never coming back okay
SPEAKER_02
25:40
so an ndp minority what does that mean an
Carter
25:43
an ndp minority is a is a tighter window for them to hit. So I think it has to be at least 36, 38 seats before... Why is it a
Carter
25:55
Okay, so the LG is in charge of choosing who's going to form the government. We have this misconception that
Carter
26:02
that we're a popular vote where the number of seats matter.
Carter
26:05
It does to a degree, but
Carter
26:07
but it's the guy who had the seat before, the guy who has the cabinet right now, that's going to be approached first. so the the
Carter
26:13
PCs could be at 30 seats the NDP could be higher than them and the LG is most likely to go to the existing government hmm so because
Carter
26:23
because the you know this democracy thing is more way more complicated than people think it is but I think so
Carter
26:30
so that in order to get to the place where the PCs aren't the ones first approached then the NDP has to be a fairly high in my opinion what do you
Corey
26:41
with that. I think that Prentiss would be committing suicide, or his party would be committing suicide, if they decided they were going to try to govern from a position of less seats than the new Democrats. I
Carter
26:51
I agree with you.
Corey
26:52
You still think it could happen. But I think
Carter
26:54
think it's going to happen because I have not seen smart moves out of these guys. I think that these guys are going to try and cling to power regardless
Carter
27:00
regardless of the situation that is presented in the
Corey
27:03
the legislature. Albertans would lose their damn minds. Are
Corey
27:06
telling me that we
Carter
27:06
we haven't lost our damn minds? He called the election a year earlier. Now I'm seeing the defense, we need to give Prentice more time.
Carter
27:16
Are you kidding me? He had more time. All he had to do was wait a year to call
Corey
27:21
call his election. This budget was so important, we needed to go to the polls. Yeah,
Carter
27:25
Yeah, so important. He backed away
SPEAKER_02
27:27
away from the right way. Okay, okay, okay. Quickly, the two majority governments, an NDP or a PC majority, what do either of those mean? We'll
Corey
27:33
We'll go with PC first. Corey? PC majority means that there's just no saving Alberta. That's as simple as I can put it. If they don't lose at this point, we might as well just give up this democracy pretense, save ourselves $100 million every four years and throw a great kegger or something. Pre-marked
Corey
27:52
Well, we might as well. Listen,
Carter
27:54
Listen, I think that people will actually come to that type of conclusion. People are going to be losing their minds if it's a PC majority because there are no polls at the end that we can point to. the forum poll came out today you know
Carter
28:05
know the one that
SPEAKER_02
28:05
that they always release at the last
Carter
28:07
last year we saw
SPEAKER_02
28:07
saw the convergence yeah
Carter
28:08
yeah and then they said and they ran around the field and claimed that they were right and everybody else was wrong um i don't see that there's no evidence that would point to a pc majority if a pc majority happens um it
Carter
28:20
will have to be because no one voted like we're going to be at 32 voter turnout if a pc majority happens an
Corey
28:28
an ndp majority cory well it means that that this province was pretty mad maybe even madder than we thought because um there's a huge huge hill for them to to climb over before they get there with their vote inefficiency like they will be winning in places like hawkwood which steven talked about they'll be winning in places like acadia
Corey
28:46
acadia where they're running paper candidates well
Corey
28:49
well forget about balancing a budget these guys haven't had to balance a checkbook they live at home with their parents and they're going to be in charge of this province that that is a pretty wild scenario in its own right yeah
Carter
28:58
yeah i mean we're We're looking at, I mean, I really worked hard to get to 44 seats for the NDP on my projections. Like, which
Carter
29:04
which seats have to go NDP for them to win 44?
Carter
29:09
it's just wild. It's really, really hard for Rachel Notley to get to a majority.
Carter
29:15
if she does, it's going to be interesting because it's four years, right?
Carter
29:20
right? I think that we are, right, and we, we, the collective we, and I'm coming from, you know, downtown Calgary in an office tower. i feel
Carter
29:28
feel like you know yeah
Carter
29:30
yeah we sent them a message right we sent them a message and we had a little minority government and it's ndp and it's kind of like a
Carter
29:36
a flirtation uh with
Carter
29:38
with the you know the bad girl in high school um
Carter
29:40
um but this is if
Carter
29:42
if if you know you don't marry that girl and if we get a majority ndp government i'm looking at cory you know this this this is industry is going to lose their shit
SPEAKER_02
29:53
really seems. Okay, that's good. Thank you. That is our segment, Pre-Taped Analysis. I hope it makes me rich very soon.
SPEAKER_02
30:00
Okay, moving on. Another segment, Double Down or Alter. Now, over the last couple of episodes, we've had a
SPEAKER_02
30:06
a few questions that you guys have answered, and I want to go back to you with the chance of doubling down on your answer or altering it. Is
Carter
30:13
Is this where you embarrass us? A
Carter
30:15
little bit, but this is where
SPEAKER_02
30:16
where I give you a second chance. This next episode is where I embarrass you.
SPEAKER_02
30:21
now cory you said the alberta party would win a seat in this election do you want to double down or alter on that double down carter you said they would not what
Carter
30:28
what i would like to alter you would i would i would like to alter i believe uh
Carter
30:32
uh went through uh elbow again today and i do not see evidence that gordon dirks is even is even running interesting
SPEAKER_02
30:39
interesting now both of you said that the achilles heel of the ndp was going to be the ndp in their baggage today
SPEAKER_02
30:46
48 hours before the election do you Do you want to double down on that or do you want to alter that analysis? I'm
Corey
30:50
I'm going to alter. The baggage didn't end up being a problem. I think their problem now is ground
Corey
30:56
If they do have a problem, and I know I said earlier I don't think that's necessarily a problem, but that will be the hurdle they have to overcome.
Carter
31:02
Yeah, I think that it remains. I'll double down. I think that the baggage of being the socialist horde, the NDP that destroy economies across the country.
Carter
31:15
I mean, I saw another post that, you know, Ed Stelmack's royalty review destroyed the gas industry in Alberta. And I wanted to kill myself.
Carter
31:22
No, no. Shale gas destroyed the gas industry. We did it to ourselves. Wake up, people. I
SPEAKER_02
31:28
I don't want to get academic with you, Carter, but that is almost a messaging issue, this baggage
SPEAKER_02
31:34
baggage that the NDP bring. We talked earlier about having no runway to actually deliver a message. How do you still think it could be an issue? That's
Carter
31:40
That's the only issue that I'm seeing on Facebook.
Carter
31:43
I am seeing that issue pop up, and I'm seeing it countered. So when I read my friends' posts, you've got 50% of them saying, I
Carter
31:51
I can't vote NDP, and the other 50% saying, I
Carter
31:56
let you vote NDP. Friends don't let friends vote NDP.
Corey
32:01
Great. You just gave the PCs their closing statement.
Carter
32:06
You think Dawson's going to listen to this?
Carter
32:08
Give me a break. You're a star
SPEAKER_02
32:09
star amongst that party. Oh, yeah. You
SPEAKER_02
32:11
You guys both said Calgary was going to be the battleground coming into Tuesday. Do you want to double down or alter that?
SPEAKER_02
32:17
Oh, I'm doubling down.
Carter
32:18
down. Double down for sure. I mean, right
Carter
32:20
right now for me it's one of three battlegrounds. I think rural south, rural north, and Calgary are all battlegrounds
Carter
32:26
battlegrounds because I don't know how they end.
Carter
32:30
it's happening right here. Okay,
SPEAKER_02
32:31
Okay, so an extension of that. Carter, you said that the NDP only
SPEAKER_02
32:35
only needed two seats in Calgary to
SPEAKER_02
32:38
to claim this thing as a victory.
SPEAKER_02
32:41
Either minority or majority status, I'll give you that.
SPEAKER_02
32:43
Do you want to double down or do you want to alter that at this point? I
Carter
32:45
I think that that's true insofar as they will get the seats that they need to get with only getting two.
Carter
32:51
I will alter by saying they're going to get more than two. This
Corey
32:54
This feels like a bit of an abuse of the black and white double down alter. Oh,
Carter
32:59
Oh, I'm sorry. I'm hearing him say
SPEAKER_02
33:02
say that they only
Carter
33:02
only need two. This is what happens when you have a weak host.
SPEAKER_02
33:05
Now, Corey, I am
SPEAKER_02
33:07
am powering through that comment.
Corey
33:14
On his comment? I mean, am I doubling down on Stephen Carter being wrong? Yeah, you can't go wrong with that bet.
SPEAKER_02
33:21
Corey, you said seven. You said that they need seven. Do you want to alter that number, or do you want to double down and say seven's a good number to put them over the top? I'm doubling
Corey
33:30
doubling down. I think seven gives them a strong minority, and it puts them within a swinging distance of a majority.
SPEAKER_02
33:36
Both of you said we're going to get a minority government. Carter, do you want to double down on that, or do you want to alter it? I
Carter
33:41
I think I have to double down. I mean, I do have a sick
Carter
33:44
sick feeling in the back, you know, where I'm feeling like maybe the NDP are going to pull off a majority. But I do not think that either the NDP or the PCs will form a majority.
Corey
33:56
Oh, man, this is a tough one.
Corey
34:00
I'm going to have to alter. You are? I think that not only did the tide not break this weekend, but as far as I can gather, it
Corey
34:10
it may still be rolling. I think that we might be looking at an NDP majority. You
Carter
34:13
You are a crazy man.
Carter
34:18
Say it one more time.
Corey
34:19
I can't do it twice as
Carter
34:20
as much as I can do it twice. Do it one more time. Twice is enough, and we don't have enough
Carter
34:23
air time. Mark this down. We're going to 530. This is episode 530. We're going back to that piece.
SPEAKER_02
34:28
We absolutely will. Okay. That's just my way of saying, okay, whatever, Carter. Yeah, thank you. Now, you both said that the Flames would win more games than the Alberta Liberal Party would win seats. Now, we saw what happened in Game 1. Game 2 is about to start right now as we're recording this.
SPEAKER_02
34:43
Double down or alter on that?
SPEAKER_02
34:46
think I have to double down. I have a good feeling the Flames are going to win tonight. The NHL Flames, as you called them last night. The
Carter
34:51
The NHL Flames. I am correct in that they play in the National Hockey League. Am I right? I think
Carter
34:57
right on that. Okay. Yeah, okay, good. So they're not in the KHL, for example. Is that a thing? just move on okay okay i
Carter
35:05
i i doubling down cory
Corey
35:07
cory i'm gonna alter sorry really sorry flames fans which i've jumped off the bandwagon of this
Corey
35:12
really this isn't looking good this
Carter
35:13
this is going to be sucky for us people are going to send hate mail because of that very
SPEAKER_02
35:19
cory you said that the ndp would become the de facto centrist or progressive solution for this province do you at this point now that was not a long time ago but do you at this point want to To double down or
SPEAKER_02
35:30
alter them? I'm doubling down.
Carter
35:32
I'm not. Carter, you said that they wouldn't be. I'm going to double down on mine because, frankly, the problem with the NDP is they don't know who they want to be when they grow up.
Carter
35:43
So the first question is going to be, if they do farm the minority government or the majority, how
Carter
35:48
how are they going to govern? Are they going to govern as a left-of-centre party or are they going to govern as a centre-left party? And those are big
Corey
35:56
big differences. Here's the thing about not knowing what you want to be when you grow up. At some point, you've just grown up, and you look back, and you say, this is what I am. And I think the New Democrats are there. They've had
Corey
36:06
had a pretty moderate platform for a while, and they're looking like that middle-of-the-road government that I think Albertans are looking for. Very interesting. Okay,
SPEAKER_02
36:15
now you both said that to win this election, a party needs to win two out of the three major regions, being Calgary, Edmonton, and rural.
SPEAKER_02
36:23
Do you still believe that? Carter, do you want to double down, or do you want to alter that? that well
Carter
36:26
i mean that's what math would indicate but it
Carter
36:30
it would appear math
Carter
36:31
is difficult math is difficult nice um but i mean that was too
SPEAKER_02
36:36
too easy so i didn't say i just wanted to let you know i was also thinking that but but no
Carter
36:41
geez you know with the wild rose doing what they're doing because they're not out of this i mean we didn't talk about a wild rose minority no
Carter
36:47
we didn't um or wild i guess maybe
Carter
36:49
maybe at this point i don't think we we talked to them about a majority or minority i I don't think they're forming government. But I do think there's a question, an open question, as to whether or not they
Carter
36:58
they win so many seats in the rural areas and a little bit in Calgary that
Carter
37:03
that they just absolutely decimate. So can
Carter
37:06
can they decimate the PCs? Yes, the Wild Rose can. They can be the nail in the coffin.
Corey
37:12
Corey, does the two out of the three strategies still hold for you? No, I'm going to alter. I think I was making that under the assumption that they would all act pretty homogenous, one region, the other region. But as Stephen himself has said, he likes to argue against himself. It's sort of rural north and rural south. And those are two different elections at this point. And even within Calgary, we're looking at inner-city Calgary and suburban Calgary. And I think it's possible for the New Democrats to win neither Calgary nor rural, but
Corey
37:38
but win this whole thing. Interesting.
Corey
37:40
Corey, when we last chatted—hold
Corey
37:44
it going to be useful? Has
SPEAKER_02
37:47
Has he just argued against himself
Carter
37:49
himself the whole time?
SPEAKER_02
37:50
time? He has. He has. Yes, he's a lot more open-minded than some.
SPEAKER_02
37:52
some. I'll give him credit.
Carter
37:53
credit. I just wanted to ask
SPEAKER_02
37:53
ask that question. Listen, this is the final time before I judge you next episode.
SPEAKER_02
37:58
Okay, Corey, you said Rachel Notley on a scale of 1 to 100 was a 79 on the NDP scale. Do you want to double down on that or do you want to alter that number?
Corey
38:07
I guess I'll double down because, you know, the scale. Despite the fact
SPEAKER_02
38:12
fact you just said she's got
SPEAKER_02
38:13
a moderate platform for a while that
Corey
38:14
that the party has. Well, what I'm saying is the NDP has become a more moderate party. Interesting.
SPEAKER_02
38:19
Carter, you said you did not know. No. Do you want to double down on the fact that you don't know another thing? Are you going to double down on your ignorance?
Carter
38:25
I'm going to double down on my ignorance. You really
Carter
38:28
Yeah, I don't know. Interesting. I
Carter
38:30
I don't know how it's going to end.
SPEAKER_02
38:32
Scale of 1 to 7, both of you said that the PC... Actually, I got abuse about the scale, but both of you said that the PC party was 7 out of 7 in terms of how much trouble it was in.
SPEAKER_02
38:40
Do you guys want to double down on that or alter
Carter
38:42
alter that? You're still going to keep us on a 7? I'm keeping that
Carter
38:44
scale. Can we go to like a 9?
SPEAKER_02
38:47
9 out of 7? Duly noted. Okay, you guys said that no party needs to throw out its playbook in the last 10 days. At
SPEAKER_02
38:55
At this point, I'm hearing there is no playbook. You guys are just chilling and having lunch and texting as strategists. But any
Carter
39:03
chance any party needs to throw out their playbook at this moment? I think
Carter
39:06
think that they, even
Carter
39:08
even if they did, there's nothing they
SPEAKER_02
39:09
they can do. It's way too late. You're both doubling down on that. Okay, next
SPEAKER_02
39:13
next segment. I like to call this the legit meter. meter um
SPEAKER_02
39:16
um i will go through a list of individuals and on a scale of one to ten you need to tell me how legit they're
Carter
39:22
they're going to 10 we're changing the listen
Carter
39:26
you should be used to this by
Carter
39:27
now 530 episodes that
SPEAKER_02
39:28
that you could play like a little bit
Carter
39:29
529 29 whatever the numbers right
SPEAKER_02
39:32
you weren't there for the first one um
SPEAKER_02
39:35
wasn't all about you steven one
SPEAKER_02
39:37
one point in time okay
SPEAKER_02
39:38
okay tell me on a scale of one to ten how legit these individuals are in terms of their importance their impact uh
SPEAKER_02
39:44
uh and how how much they must be watched leading up to election day and after election day does that make sense are we good yeah yeah okay so the legit meter okay jim
SPEAKER_02
39:52
jim prentice scale of one to ten cory three three how justified okay
Corey
39:56
okay well because he's going to be the leader of the third party and he's going to quit four days later if that he's
Carter
40:02
he's got to be at least a seven because he's he's literally leading this thing in and when people talk about of the collapse of the PCs in the future, they're not going to be mentioning Alison Redford's name. They're going to be mentioning Jim Prentice's. You've
SPEAKER_02
40:14
You've referred to this guy that I'm going to talk about quite a few times today, Stephen, our
SPEAKER_02
40:18
our Lieutenant Governor Donald Ethel. Oh
Carter
40:21
Oh my God, he's a 10.
Carter
40:24
This is what's fascinating about our
Carter
40:32
wish we had Normie Kwong in there at this moment in time, or
Carter
40:35
Lois Hull. I mean, eesh.
Corey
40:37
eesh. This is going to be quite the civics lesson. We've got three parties who have pretty much promised they're not going to play nice together. And you've
Carter
40:44
you've got the LG
Corey
40:44
LG sitting at the top. And he gets to pick the government. And
Carter
40:46
And people don't understand. He's the guy.
Carter
40:48
He's the guy. Now, there's
Carter
40:51
there's only one vote that matters when this thing gets to this stage. And I'm really looking forward to the constitutional experts writing about what happens in the next three months. On
SPEAKER_02
41:00
On the Legit Meter, Terry Rock, PC candidate in Calgary, Buffalo. Corey? Five.
Corey
41:06
He's run a good campaign But it's a three way race We'll see how legit he is
Carter
41:11
He's a 9, he's going to win, he's going to be one of the few PCs
Corey
41:14
Now that's a bold prediction That I want you to You
Carter
41:17
You mark that down You counter position that with the stuff that Mr. Hogan has said Former
Corey
41:22
Former NDP leader Brian Mason
Corey
41:25
How legit is he? He's
Corey
41:27
He's about to be our minister of finance, he's a 10 Oh
Carter
41:29
Oh he's a 10, he's going to be a big deal in the next government PC
SPEAKER_02
41:32
PC campaign manager Randy Dawson
Carter
41:38
a pass button yeah
Corey
41:38
yeah i'll let steven uh maybe think about that one while i say he's going to be a 10 but for all the wrong reasons you do not want to be the guy who killed the longest dynasty in canadian political history well
Carter
41:51
well susan elliott and i spent so much time together in 2012 uh just kind of almost saying we cannot be the ones we cannot be the ones we cannot be the ones Well, someone had to be the one.
SPEAKER_02
42:02
How legit is Jonathan Dennis after he had to resign from his post as Minister of Justice?
Corey
42:07
Two. He's a backbencher in a third party.
Carter
42:11
Yeah, I mean, his political career may be over.
SPEAKER_02
42:15
Jamie Lull, independent conservative who went kamikaze on the PCs. How legit right now? Should we be watching him? What's the impact? What could we feel?
Carter
42:23
I mean, he blew himself up. He went kamikaze. I mean that that means you fly your plane into the opponent's warship and you die
SPEAKER_02
42:34
one? Yeah, do you want to put a number
Corey
42:36
Yes, it's a six the number of feet under the ground his political career
Corey
42:47
this is not new ground for Tommy He's seen a bunch of new democratic governments get elected only to be turfed or to be turfed while he was leader I think
Carter
42:54
think that it's a 5 he's going to parade and peacock like others have done with other victories as though it's their victory and this is not Thomas Mulcair's victory post
Carter
43:07
post media fuck how
Corey
43:08
how legit they are you guys don't think
SPEAKER_02
43:12
think that they've put any wind at the PC's backs I'm not saying I disagree but laid out 2
Corey
43:19
2 number of cents their opinion is
SPEAKER_02
43:22
the IVR survey system So, Caleb,
Corey
43:26
how legit is it?
Corey
43:28
Or what its importance will be. That's such
SPEAKER_02
43:30
such an open question.
Corey
43:31
question. That really depends on what happens on election day. I want you to predict and put a score to it. I'm going to say that it's a seven. I think it gets a bit of a resurgence. I think
Carter
43:39
think it's a seven or an eight because basically every other technology that came out, was it Thursday? Yeah. When all the polls came out using all the technologies. So we had an IVR, we had an online panel, and we had telephone surveys, and they all said the same thing.
SPEAKER_02
43:54
The NDP GeoTV. How important? How legit? Three. Four. Yeah.
Carter
43:59
Yeah. Do you think that's where
SPEAKER_02
44:00
where it stands right now?
Carter
44:00
now? It's just not there, and it's not going to be there. We're not going to be talking about it. Unions.
Corey
44:05
Yeah. That strength's just not there. When you look at the unions that are affiliated with the New Democrats, there's a few. But the only one that really brings any real strength to it, and now there may be unions who disagree with me and tweet as such. They will tweet. But the UFCW is really where the strength comes from for the NDP, and there are very passionate
Corey
44:24
passionate people there, but it's not like we're talking about the IBEW and the building trades and everybody else sending hordes
Corey
44:32
hordes of people to go knock doors. That's just not happening.
Carter
44:35
Yeah, I mean, this is an American-style politics where the unions are as active as they
Carter
44:39
they possibly can be. The unions are still
Carter
44:42
still a little shell-shocked from all the action they had to take during the last government.
Carter
44:48
She's got to be a 10.
Carter
44:50
I mean, is anybody talking about anything, anybody else? I mean, she won the debate.
SPEAKER_02
44:55
You don't even want to blow up the scale on that one. Go with a 12 or a 13. No,
Carter
44:58
No, she's a 10. Because at this time, she's
Carter
45:00
she's the deal that everybody's going to be thinking of for this election. The same way that we thought of Nenshi or we thought of Redford. You know, Redford
Carter
45:08
Redford got the leadership. There's always one star. She's the star.
Corey
45:12
She would actually probably be better served by being a 7. But she's not. She's a 10. And so expectations are going to be high. and that's a little unfortunate for him. Stephen Mendel.
Carter
45:26
The former former. He'll be the former Minister of Health, the former Mayor of Edmonton, and the guy who lost in Edmonton. Yeah,
Corey
45:33
Yeah, I think he's a three. He lost his legacy. He left as a very popular mayor and he's going to be defeated as an unpopular health minister. Two
Corey
45:43
Ten. This was Twitter's election. Are you kidding me? Ten, interesting. How many hashtags did we get out of this? How many people were paying
Carter
45:49
attention? And the people who listen to this podcast, all 1,000 of them are
Corey
45:55
are the only ones there. But that's almost the point, Stephen. These are the opinion leaders, and that may be flattering. Oh, you
Carter
46:02
you look at you sucking up to the listeners. Oh, the
Corey
46:05
the tastemakers. The reporters are on it. The columnists are on it. The pundits are on it. I'd venture to say you're not a
SPEAKER_02
46:10
a 10, Stephen. Where are you at on Twitter?
Carter
46:12
I'm going to go with 2. Really? Interesting. I think that they do not reflect. I'm watching my Facebook to see how this election is
Corey
46:20
is going. Well, let's go one step further in this conversation because this is interesting to me. Remember when those five rich white guys said we may... No, there was one non-white guy. Oh, I'm sorry. That's true. That's actually been pointed out a few times by Twitter. That's how I know these things. But
Corey
46:35
But the story the next day was not about their comments or even their donation. It was about the reaction. The social media campaign for the stallery, the hashtag PCAA hostage crisis, it became the story. Twitter made its own news. Because the mainstream
Carter
46:51
mainstream media didn't want to cover those six guys. They wanted to cover something. So they covered the reaction. The same way that when something horrible happens, the mainstream media doesn't cover, doesn't
Carter
47:00
doesn't do what Fox News does and sensationalize the story. They
SPEAKER_02
47:04
They go back and they
SPEAKER_02
47:05
they find the reaction and
SPEAKER_02
47:06
cover the reaction. So I'm not going to derail my segment here, but I want to talk about that for a second because I also find it interesting. thing so you're saying that
SPEAKER_02
47:13
that if something blows up on twitter and the mainstream media covers it that
SPEAKER_02
47:18
that still puts twitter at a two for you steven well
Carter
47:20
well yeah because i think that what they're doing is they they wanted to cover it in the first place the
Carter
47:25
the mainstream media are the twitter they're on twitter too they
Carter
47:28
they wanted the they wanted to cover it but they couldn't cover it straight up so they covered the reaction you don't
SPEAKER_02
47:33
don't think it has value
Carter
47:34
i don't think it has i mean it has value but it's it's not, we're not going to look at that and say, this is the whole ballgame. I
SPEAKER_02
47:41
I feel like I'm going to hold your feet to the fire on that one,
Carter
47:43
one, if anything. Listen, Twitter starts something, then it jumps to mainstream media, then it goes to Facebook, and Facebook is real.
SPEAKER_02
47:48
Okay, I want to talk, the last one on this list, the individual that made the counter-narrative to the counter-narrative, Paula
SPEAKER_02
47:56
on a scale of 1 to 10, how legit?
Carter
47:57
Oh, she's got to be up there with Rachel. She's been the star of this election. Yeah,
Corey
48:01
Yeah, she's not just with her kind of 20-tweet rebuttal to her own paper's editorial endorsement. But in general, she's been pithy. She's broken a lot of these stories.
Corey
48:13
Paula had a great election and really kind of reminded us of the value of mainstream journalism.
Carter
48:18
Well, let's not forget, Paula was the one who coined Lake of Fire. Yeah.
Carter
48:22
Right? I mean, she's held a major hand in the elections in Alberta for some time now.
SPEAKER_02
48:28
Alrighty, so our last segment, as always, the lightning round and the plus minus. Not as many questions this time. We had
SPEAKER_02
48:33
had quite a few in some previous segments, but I want to go to
SPEAKER_02
48:36
to the first one. On a scale of 1 to 10, what
SPEAKER_02
48:39
what benefit of the doubt are you giving to the PC ground game to pull off any sort of win, Corey? 1. Steven? 4. What percentage of the vote does the PC party get? Corey? 28. It'll be higher than the polls. Steven?
SPEAKER_02
48:56
What percentage of the vote do the NDPs get? Corey? 41. Steven? 37. Interesting. The NDP, plus or minus 38 seats? Corey?
Corey
49:10
What happens to David Swan? One word. Does anybody remember at the end of The Littlest Hobo? I think that answers our question. Okay,
SPEAKER_02
49:20
Oh, David Swan. He wants
Carter
49:21
wants to be health minister.
SPEAKER_02
49:25
two days. What is the biggest liability for the NDP?
Carter
49:28
Oh, I thought you were going to say liberals. I would have said David Swan. That would have been epic. Okay. For the NDP, the biggest liability? Yeah. It's
Carter
49:34
It's two more days.
Corey
49:36
Stephen? Corey? The biggest liability for the NDP is... Yeah, Stephen's answer is perfect. It's just time. Time is their enemy right now.
Corey
49:47
What is their best friend for the NDP?
SPEAKER_02
49:48
NDP? Who or what is their best friend?
Carter
49:52
Right now? Yes. It appears to be Jonathan Dennis.
Corey
49:57
years of PC rule?
SPEAKER_02
49:59
or what is the best friend of the PCs at this moment
Corey
50:03
I bet their moms still like them but that's about it I think you
Carter
50:06
you know I wrote I wrote an article for the Calgary Herald lightning round lightning
SPEAKER_02
50:13
it's the strategist saying we brought you in because you know we needed some
Carter
50:24
thought you did so well I thought you took me off my train I thought initially that the Flames
Carter
50:30
Flames were going to help the PCs by keeping voter turnout down. Right.
Carter
50:35
I am now convinced that the Flames are actually helping the NDP.
SPEAKER_02
50:39
I think we've answered this, but who wins this election? Corey? NDP. Steven? I
Carter
50:44
I think we're actually going to see a PC minority.
Corey
50:48
Well, at this point, Steven, that's a bold prediction.
SPEAKER_02
50:51
Yeah, absolutely. Okay, that's it. it episode 529 of the strategist will be back after
SPEAKER_02
50:55
after the election with an episode where i hold steven's feet to the fire and
SPEAKER_02
50:59
and cory's he said some stuff see you next time