Transcript
SPEAKER_01
0:02
All righty, Debate Night in Alberta 527. That's the episode number of The Strategists. My name is Zain Velji with me, Corey Hogan, Stephen Carter. Gents, how are you doing, Zain?
SPEAKER_01
0:12
How are you doing? So, Debate Night in Alberta. Tell me first, before we get into it for today, you guys were both in the room in 2012. What was that like?
Corey
0:21
A lot different than not being in the room. I think I ran a hole in the carpet in Global Studio. they may send me the bill when they hear this podcast it's pretty stressful and you just die every time your candidate opens their mouth because you're worried well now you got to be clear my candidate was Ross Sherman but
Corey
0:39
so you died multiple
SPEAKER_01
0:39
multiple deaths as well
Corey
0:40
well he did he did very well I think credit where credit's due right you you worry I'm worried that you're going to be at the receiving end of John Turner you had no option yeah you
Carter
0:51
watch for all the traps and you're far more attentive to little details than you are watching the whole piece. Because when you watch the whole piece, you're able to get an overall sense and maybe view it more the way the average Albertan watches it instead of some crazed political consultant.
SPEAKER_01
1:09
Right, right. Okay, so I'm going to go to the most obvious question for tonight. Who won this thing?
Corey
1:12
Oh, in my mind, no question. Rachel Notley. And maybe that's my left-wing bias, but every single time Jim Prentiss had to choose whether he was going to address a question or a pointed attack towards Brian Jean or Rachel Notley, he chose Notley each time. And that in itself would probably be enough for me to give the win to Rachel because she looked like the opposition leader, the potential premier.
Corey
1:36
But beyond that, she
Corey
1:37
she had an answer for every one of his barbs. He threw it out, she knocked it back. I had rarely seen such a masterful performance. Stephen Carter, your take?
Carter
1:47
Well, I mean, it would be too easy for me just to follow Corey and say that, you know, Rachel won. I think that there could be a case made, though, that Jim
Carter
1:56
Jim Prentiss won by not losing. There were two obvious losers in the debate, and those losers were Brian Jean and David Swan. So clearly that puts Jim Prentiss in a contest with Rachel Notley, not a bad place for him to be. The question would be, will voters elect an NDP government or will they fall back home afraid of the NDP the way that they were afraid of the Wild Rose in 2012?
SPEAKER_01
2:20
You touched on Brian Jean there. I want to talk about that for a second. Simplistic message, talked about taxes all day long, but
SPEAKER_01
2:27
but is that a good thing? Was he on message? Was he off message? What does that resonate to people that are not us, people who are not crazy doing this right now? What
Corey
2:34
What does that translate
Corey
2:35
translate to the regular voter?
Corey
2:36
Hey, well, I heard Stephen say that he thought Brian lost. I think he's wrong. I think crazy people watch these debates, especially when there's a hockey game going on. We are literally recording a podcast instead of watching a possible elimination hockey game. We're not normal. Most Albertans get their news in soundbites, in segments, when you see the tweets, when you go out and you get that 30-second clip. You're going to get that simple Brian Jean message. He never wavered, but he doesn't need to waver. It's a message that's got a lot of resonance with Albertans. I see Stephen Carter disagreeing. It
Carter
3:06
It is such a simple message. We will not increase taxes. Then he immediately starts talking about he's going to spend more on health care and he's going to reinvest in education. Albertans aren't stupid. They're not going to hear this simplistic message from Brian Jean and go, go, oh, well, that adds up. It doesn't add up. It won't work. And he was the obvious loser in the debate.
Corey
3:26
I just don't think that they're going to have the benefit of the rejoinders. They're going to hear we can keep taxes low. We have a plan.
Corey
3:32
That's his message. He's stuck to it.
Carter
3:35
There certainly will be an audience for it.
SPEAKER_01
3:37
Let's talk about this. Corey, you mentioned the 45 second limit, the punchiness of this debate.
SPEAKER_01
3:42
Was there a moment for either of you guys that is going to define this debate? Was there anything that is going to be headline worthy or repost I think
Corey
3:51
it's when we got to turn the TV off. I mean, that to me was the most exciting part. Is that any way
Carter
3:55
way to treat a donor? Is that any way to treat a donor?
Carter
4:00
That's the line of
SPEAKER_01
4:02
How about two economists, five responses. How about that one? Was that punchy
Carter
4:04
punchy for you? Yeah, sure. So you're going to quote Rachel Notley lines all night because she's the only one who had any lines that are worth remembering. Brian Jean's line is, everybody else is the coalition of tax raisers. uh and and but that was it was just repetitive that's why we remember it i think that rachel notley's lines were much stronger um
Corey
4:27
um i don't know if we switch chairs here but i think i was the guy who said rachel won but i'm going to argue against that you need to know too much background you need to know brian jean was a pc donor uh the economist line was great but the economist line the
Carter
4:39
the people who are choosing the winners and losers of this debate are people who know what was going on and they know exactly what was being spoken of and they're the ones who are going to point out and give context to that quote because that's the way things always work.
Corey
4:53
Okay, I want you to remember you just said that. Think back, put on your way back cap. Way back. Down to 2012. A little-known columnist named Don Braid called the debate for somebody. Do you remember who he thought won that debate? I
Carter
5:06
I believe it was Alison Redford.
Corey
5:07
Oh, you'd be mistaken, my friend. It was Raj Sherman. As we all know, he immediately... Fudget, budget, Raj. Yeah, fudget, budget, Raj. He went down and... Please tell me that was scripted.
Corey
5:16
It was scripted. I take no credit for it because I hate that line. But yes, it was scripted.
Carter
5:23
Raj beat Allison Redford? I am shocked. Yeah,
Carter
5:26
that's why he became premier. I wasn't really paying attention. Did he
SPEAKER_01
5:28
he win that election? Well, it's just my point. I'm trying to remember who won that election. All right, well, I'm not going to be a stand-by or turn-deck measuring contest. I have another question here. Okay, Jim Prentiss, what should he feel or could he feel satisfied about today? He had the toughest job going and anything he could feel satisfied about? Yeah,
Corey
5:44
Yeah, he's still premier. He goes home and he's premier. And that still gives him an awful lot of leverage in this election going forward.
Carter
5:50
I think that he's going to be happy that he may have developed a one-enemy strategy instead of the two-front war. He may be able to convince Albertans that right now the great red scare is what they should be afraid of, not having to fight both the Wild Rose and the NDP. Coy, any reaction on that?
Corey
6:08
Yeah, no, I think Stephen's right, as much as it pains me to say that sometimes. times. He has clearly defined a strategy going forward.
Corey
6:17
may work, may not work, but he has a strategy. And that's more than we've seen from him in the past week.
SPEAKER_01
6:21
Let's talk about Rachel Notley a little bit more. How do you think she came off today with
SPEAKER_01
6:25
with that reference to Jack Layton? I think that was a reminder to some of us that she is still an NDPer. Is she tethered to this province or is she part of the collective baggage of this party federally? She
Carter
6:35
She had the opportunity to position herself as an Alberta NDP. An Alberta NDP does not invoke the spirit of Jack Layton as though Jack had all the answers. I don't think that... I mean, sure, Linda Duncan got elected in Alberta, but it's not like Jack Layton had this great sway and the Great Orange Wave.
Carter
6:54
It never reached the shores of Alberta. It
Corey
6:56
It did not roll across the prairies. And on top of that, if I remember correctly, it was in the context of a coalition. Why would you want to remind voters about that ugly Dion Leighton mess, you know, throw Gilles Decepin for good measure. Yeah, you have to
Carter
7:09
to throw Gilles Decepin because if you drop off the block, it doesn't sound that bad. I mean, but these guys, there is nobody to partner with in this next government. That's what makes this so interesting is that we still have that three-way race. Brian Jean was way in front, and now this, I think, is going to bring him back, and we are going to be looking at a three-horse race all the way through. So a
SPEAKER_01
7:32
a question on that. Brian Jean, do you think this actually makes him come back? I mean, he's brand new to the scene. The
SPEAKER_01
7:37
The resurgence of this party seems to have happened with or without his presence. Does he really matter in the equation for the Wildrose and their supporters and their growing base?
Carter
7:47
I think he matters in the equation in a lot of ridings. I think that he's still going to matter in a lot of suburban ridings in Calgary. I think he's going to matter in rural ridings throughout the province of Alberta. i don't think he's going to matter in in edmonton and i don't think he's going to matter in downtown calgary um but so he's not going to have enough he didn't gain any ground all three parties today we're looking at how do we gain enough ground that we can form a majority and
Carter
8:12
and all three parties the only one who can walk away and say i did what i needed to do was rachel notley and ironically that may empower jim
Carter
8:21
jim prentice to actually gain back some ground cory
Corey
8:23
cory i see you smiling well
Corey
8:24
smiling because steven told us at the start of the hour that jim prentice won the debate I think
Carter
8:29
think he won because he didn't lose, and that's what's keeping him in the game, and that's what's enabling him to be able to fight a one-front war against Rachel Notley. You
SPEAKER_01
8:37
You think it was that simple between yesterday or the day before where the two-front war was very obvious to today, or a debate where many people may not have tuned in to becoming
Carter
8:45
becoming one-front war? I don't think Brian Jean is going to have any credibility moving forward in the next 11 days.
Corey
8:50
Well, I think nothing in life is as bad or as good as you think, and I think that Brian Jean's going to live to fight another day. He's got a message. Take,
Carter
8:57
Take, you know, just like the other 526 episodes, you take a mamby-pamby position and you try and defend it.
Corey
9:02
I try to make a virtue out of moderation every time. You're mamby
Carter
9:05
mamby-pamby instead of standing up. All the feedback is take a strong position and more people listen.
SPEAKER_01
9:11
Let's talk about issues a little bit. Which one today did not get discussed that you felt like should have been on the agenda?
Carter
9:18
-secondary education. Post-secondary education didn't get mentioned in the debate. We talked about education. We talked about health care. We talked about RISH. Talk about corporate taxes. Corporate taxes. Taxation overall. Balancing the budget got talked about up the wazoo.
Carter
9:33
But what about post-secondary education? A 4% cut to post-secondary education on top of other cuts that have been made. And it's decimating our post-secondary education. Already the worst in Canada.
Carter
9:43
And we're fine with it.
Corey
9:44
Yeah, I thought it was funny the opposition didn't jump on that. They talked a lot about education. Jim Prentiss took a lot of primary education stats. Number five in the world. those things fall apart really quickly when you start looking at our universities colleges trade schools all of those things and they didn't swing in fact I think it's fair to say they gave Jim Prentice a bit of a pass part
Corey
10:03
part of that might be though because they don't have particularly strong education platforms themselves there's not a lot of differentiation between those parties no
Carter
10:10
no I mean no one's really talking about using education as a means to diversify the economy or anything along those lines they just don't they haven't thought at all that that way through so
Corey
10:18
so this is of course the moment when people People start furiously tweeting at us, what about page 108 in the budget or whatever other... Yes, the self-referential
SPEAKER_01
10:26
-referential budgets and platforms.
Corey
10:28
What did you guys make of that?
Carter
10:29
Well, if I open my book here to page 101, you'll find if it's buried on page 101, it doesn't
SPEAKER_01
10:35
doesn't exist. Well, I think that and the fact that expecting Albertans to actually have read your 50, 60-page platform and your 200-page, 500-page budget is
SPEAKER_01
10:43
is a little bit ridiculous and probably is a little bit removed. Am I weird there? I
Corey
10:47
I don't think anybody expected anybody to read it. I think of an anecdote a friend of mine told me about the 93 election with the Red Book. And a Liberal talking head debating somebody else. And the
Corey
10:59
the Conservatives said something about, well, we need, what
Corey
11:02
what about a plan for this? And the
Corey
11:05
the Liberal responded, well, if you'd looked at page 135 on the Red Book, you'd know we have a plan for that. There
Corey
11:10
There was no page 135 in the Red Book. It ended significantly before that.
Corey
11:14
That's the point. They want to look like they've got a plan. It doesn't matter what the type of plan is. Now we're critiquing
Carter
11:19
critiquing the book Primary Colors and Governor Stanton calls into the radio show and talks to Izzy. And all of a sudden he's saying, you know, on page four of your plan, Governor, on page four you talk about tax cuts and tax hikes or whatever the heck it was. And kills the candidate. I mean, is this what we're talking about? We're taking our campaign cues from Primary Colors. The
Corey
11:41
The virtue was not in the specifics. The virtue was in the plan. Jim Prentiss is running on. I have a 10-year plan, which,
Corey
11:48
which, by the way, give him credit, even Stalin only had five-year plans.
Carter
11:52
mean, it is pretty arrogant, right? I know we only have four-year election cycles, but I have
SPEAKER_01
11:58
have a 10-year plan because I'm
SPEAKER_01
11:59
I'm planning to be here. 10 years to diversification. Okay, this is the 526th episode. We have well-established. I say seven.
SPEAKER_01
12:06
You know, I lose count after so many. You always lose count. I lose count after so many. We have well-established segments. Here's a segment that we always like to do, Hindsight 2020. So this segment, we talk about something
SPEAKER_01
12:15
something or some things that you wish
SPEAKER_01
12:18
wish some of the candidates had done differently. Okay, so what is one question or issue you'd wish a candidate had answered differently during today's debate? Corey? Well,
Corey
12:26
Well, you touched on it, but the coalition question for Rachel Notley was bad. I don't think you want to remind people about you being part of a larger socialist cause. And maybe that's a broad stroke, but frankly, that's how it's going to come off. Yeah,
Carter
12:39
Yeah, I think that the coalition question actually was also one that I thought Brian Jean needed to answer differently. I think that Brian Jean could have stood up and said, listen, our conservative brothers across the way have lost their direction. I'd be pleased to provide the direction. If we can hold the line on taxes, I'd be prepared to support a budget.
SPEAKER_01
12:57
Okay, so this is a debate still centered around a guy who still gets to become premier, Jim Prentiss. One thing each of you could say to
SPEAKER_01
13:06
to tell Jim Prentiss to do differently prior to heading into this debate.
SPEAKER_01
13:09
you have the chance for advising him what would be the one thing you would have told him before
SPEAKER_01
13:13
before he went on stage, live on air, with that blue and orange tie to do differently. Oh, take a shot and get some powder
Corey
13:19
face. I mean, he looked terrible at
Carter
13:23
He was sweating. He looked terrible. He looked terrible.
Carter
13:26
Literally, my advice to him would have been, just
Carter
13:31
You know, I know this is an important thing. I know this is an important debate. I know that people are going to be watching.
Carter
13:36
But if you cannot relax through this, you are not a leader.
Carter
13:39
And, you know, I mean, they were all nervous. You could certainly tell that.
Carter
13:43
But Rachel Notley, if you just listen to her voice, her voice was far more relaxed, especially about 10 minutes in. Jim Prentiss never got to that stage, never got to a place where he was feeling relaxed and looked like a leader. Corey?
Corey
13:55
Corey? Well, the other thing is Jim Prentiss, beyond the sweat and, you
Corey
13:59
you know, the obvious
Corey
14:01
obvious problems with his anxiety, terrible
Corey
14:04
terrible body language. He kept turning away from Rachel Notley in a way that I
Corey
14:08
I found particularly unpleasant. I'll be curious how the rest of Elvers felt about it. Let's
SPEAKER_01
14:12
Let's talk about body language a little bit. You know, you saw Jim Prentiss turn away from Rachel Notley. You saw her talk
SPEAKER_01
14:17
talk about math could be difficult. You saw these zingers that he may have tried to put
SPEAKER_01
14:21
put in that may have fell flat. What did you make of his body language throughout the debate? I know the appearance is one thing. What
SPEAKER_01
14:26
What did you make of his confidence? And he tried to almost moderate questions from the debate podium. What did you guys make of that?
Corey
14:33
Well, he wanted to look like a premier. He wanted to look in charge of the debate. And sometimes that means trying to run over people. I don't think he did a particularly good job. I think there were times he looked like he wanted to go over and slap Brian Jean. And he didn't look that much better as far as his composure relative to Rachel Notley. I don't think he looked like a premier tonight. I think he looked like a guy running for premier. Who most looked like a premier to you?
Corey
14:54
As crazy as it sounds, I think it was Rachel Notley. Steven?
Carter
14:59
I'm not sure that any of them looked like a premier. I mean, Jim was trying to look like a premier. Rachel had body language issues. Her inability
Carter
15:08
inability to translate her voice calm into her body calm. I mean, she was doing these robotic hand movements. This hand gesture of this stilted, you know, just terrible. I don't know where they teach them that. Do they teach them that in lawyer school? is that what they do they have a class in awkward i
SPEAKER_01
15:25
i think it's i think it's torts i have no idea what that is but i think it's torts it's
Carter
15:28
it's got to be torts definitely
Corey
15:34
well yeah she looked a little wooden she kept reminding me of that episode of 30 rock with jack donaghy who's got a act say one oh yeah oh yeah puts a mug in each hand he's like i don't know what to do with my hands well
SPEAKER_01
15:45
well for all anchorman that's the same thing
Corey
15:47
as well yeah i mean it was it was a dark spot on an otherwise really stellar performance for we
SPEAKER_01
15:53
we have trampled through this podcast and we have not even mentioned the words dr david swan how
Carter
15:58
how is that possible how
SPEAKER_01
15:59
how is that possible how
Carter
16:00
could we not mention how irrelevant he was now
SPEAKER_01
16:03
now cory you had a tweet the other day the liberals were polling below homogenized milk at three percent now for those who don't know 3.25 percent is homogenized milk i'm more of a skim guy that's That's irrelevant. I thought it was four.
SPEAKER_01
16:15
Dr. David Swan had the least to lose, did
SPEAKER_01
16:18
did not go for any juggernauts, seemed to have trouble articulating his thoughts. Was it format? Was it content? What was it that made this man struggle? Well,
Corey
16:25
Well, I don't know. Maybe we're being a little unfair to David. I didn't think he did terrible. I certainly don't think he was consistent or focused.
Corey
16:33
Very strange. He would be attacking the Wild Rose and then lashing out against the conservatives and then against the New Democrats. I didn't see a lot of strategy. I saw a man who was barely holding on, was not rowing in any particular direction,
Corey
16:47
and the closing line of the Liberals with the trust, the whole message the Liberals have pulled in about it's about trust,
Corey
16:54
I don't know where they focused group that, but you're not going to find many people who A, trust politicians, or B, in Alberta, trust the Liberals. It's problematic,
Corey
17:02
problematic, and I think it's endemic of an overall campaign. Just kind of there, you know? You're not paying an awful lot of attention to them.
Carter
17:12
Yeah, I think that it would be really difficult to point to anything that David Swan said or did tonight that mattered. And so his trust narrative, the narrative of trust us, was almost ridiculous given the situation that he finds himself in, in the polls. And even if you don't trust the polls, certainly you trust where they're starting from. They have two sitting MLAs seeking re-election, and one of them has decided to run under three-party banners. does not exactly scream strength to me.
SPEAKER_01
17:45
Fantastic. Okay, next segment, the recipe. So I want you guys to take a look at some of these questions and tell me as strategists, political strategists, with years of experience behind you. You're very old.
SPEAKER_01
17:55
Yes, indeed. Thank you. I mean, I have a job here. It's to host. I don't know why you're interrupting me. Sorry. I'm going to power through there, Stephen, as many probably have in the past. Go inside the campaigns, into the mind of some of these candidates, and tell me what they should do. How do they leverage current reality? So, you're
SPEAKER_01
18:10
you're advising Rachel Notley. She has a good night tonight. I feel like that's a consensus. She's doing well in the polls.
SPEAKER_01
18:16
What do you tell her going forward? How do you close this in the next two weeks?
Corey
18:20
Well, yeah, I mean, when you've got something good going on, the last thing you want is to screw it up. You hold your breath every time there's an error, like their budget, you know, math snafu, like their candidate early on who got into a physical altercation with somebody at the door.
Corey
18:36
They just don't want to screw it up. They've got to run some pretty flawless ball. No errors over the next couple of weeks. And maybe the polls will recede, maybe they won't. But I think at this point, cash in your chips. Don't swing for
SPEAKER_01
18:47
fences. I'm going to get to you, Stephen, but is it flawless ball or does she need to make a move? Is there something she needs to do outside of the smooth sailing that has gotten her through the last couple of weeks?
SPEAKER_01
18:58
I don't think so. Not at this point. Stephen?
Carter
19:01
Stephen? Get thee to Calgary. She needs to find an oil and gas executive who will stand next to her and take a picture. She needs to reassure people that she's got the chops to manage our oil and gas industry and that she's not going to implement traditional NDP programs. How
SPEAKER_01
19:19
How does she get away from that? How does she get away from that baggage of the party, both provincially and more so federally? You have Tom Mulcair calling it Petro
SPEAKER_01
19:26
Petro-State back in the day. Even that's actually not too long ago. How do you get rid of that baggage and still become premier? and having Calgary as a battleground, which I think prior to this, before going on air, we all agreed was. Well,
Carter
19:37
Well, and you don't mention Jack Layton. And you don't, you know, those are the types of mistakes. And this is where ideology is really going to get in Rachel Notley's way. If she is an ideological New Democrat,
Carter
19:53
she will quickly find the people of the province of Alberta do not share her view. Is it strange that two weeks in, we don't already know the answer to that? Not really. I mean, was
Carter
20:02
was it Kim Campbell who said that an election is no time to talk about policy?
Corey
20:06
You know, they understand this. They're running Premier Rachel Notley. That's all their signs. You know, they're orange. But otherwise, you wouldn't necessarily even know they were New Democratic signs. They
Corey
20:15
have to stay focused to that. And the New Democrats have a language. They have a culture. They're immersed in it all of the time. And they put on a regular person cloak when they go outdoors. That's the only way I can put it. You go to one of their conventions. It's brothers and sisters. it's singing solidarity forever it's the sainted jack layton it's the sainted ray martin it's the sainted sainted sainted all of these people who fought the good fight you
Corey
20:40
you know tommy douglas the black mouse and the white mouse these are the parables they tell their children at night she's
Corey
20:45
she's got to stifle it she's just got to put it in a can and put it away for the next two weeks define
Carter
20:49
define thyself as a albertan first and a new democrat second uh she won't take that advice by the way. If she was in the room, I don't think she would take it. The same way that I would probably offer advice to Brian Jean not to go into Calgary or Edmonton and just focus instead on trying to get as many votes in rural Alberta as possible. I think that he will find that there is more receptivity to a simplistic message in rural Alberta than there is in urban Alberta. I don't mean to imply that rural Albertans are simple. It's just that the low taxes mantra, low service, We provide fewer services in rural Alberta, and therefore they want to pay fewer taxes. Makes sense.
Corey
21:31
Yeah, it's a great segue to Brian Jean, too.
Corey
21:35
yes. Good question. He's got an interesting road ahead of him here. He has to decide now where the fight goes.
Corey
21:42
If Jim Prentiss is going to start turning his guns towards Rachel Motley, if that's the strategy,
Corey
21:47
he's got to start pulling it back. He's got to make the fight about himself and Jim Prentiss. Until tonight, I think tonight was the first, I'm not saying that's the first time he said it, but tonight was the first time I heard him say he's running for premier. For the first week of the campaign, he was running for leader of the opposition. That's a shift.
Corey
22:04
It's a significant shift. Yeah, absolutely. Where he goes from here is going to be different than where he came.
SPEAKER_01
22:11
Yeah. Let's talk about the most important man in that room, Jim Prentice. I mean, he finishes that debate, goes into his green room. You guys are advising Jim Prentice. And your one saving grace, like you said, Carter, he may not have lost that debate. And secondly, the PCUs seem to have a very efficient vote. And for people who may not know what that means, they generally have votes that get them seats effectively. They win seats with their votes. So you're advising Jim Prentiss.
SPEAKER_01
22:37
Number one, does he need a Hail Mary at this point? And number two, if so or if not so, what does he actually need?
Corey
22:43
Well, I think he needs to break the cycle. but the thing about efficient vote when you're the government is it means your vote is broadly spread across you can win seats everywhere the problem with efficient vote is it's efficient right up until it's not and this is when you see vote collapses this is 1993 when the conservatives go from a large majority to two seats i'm not saying that's going to happen to jim prentice but that is always the risk when your vote is spread too far he could get 20 percent in every riding in this province and he could lose every seat in this province. Stephen?
Carter
23:14
Well, I think that he's got a much different problem than Notley and Jean in so far as Notley and Jean are currently competing in very distinct geographic regions. Prentice's very low vote is spread out everywhere. So he's got to choose battlefields. Where is he going to fight? Where is he going to win? What are the seats that are even available to him right now? And it's got to be Calgary. He's got to run around Calgary basically fighting, I think, against the NDP. And he's got to say that any vote for the Wild Rose is a vote for the NDP. And that becomes his mantra for the next 10 days. And he's going to try and scare everybody the same way that we tried to scare everybody in 2012.
Corey
23:55
Well, he did a good job. Yeah,
Carter
23:57
Yeah, it's the same trick.
Corey
23:58
You know, you get the trick. It's like a sequel to a comedy. We've heard those lines. So, Carter, you were inside
SPEAKER_01
24:04
inside that campaign in 2012 on the PC side. We are now less than two weeks out.
SPEAKER_01
24:09
At what point, if
SPEAKER_01
24:11
if Jim Prentice adopts that strategy of scaring people to vote for him again, as they did in 2012, at what point does that get initiated? And what are the roadblocks for salience? I mean, we seem to be a
SPEAKER_01
24:22
a little bit more critical this time of these swings.
SPEAKER_01
24:25
swings. Corey, you mentioned it in a post you wrote a little while ago. So what are the roadblocks for this fear mongering? Well,
Corey
24:33
let's look at the most obvious one, in my opinion. It's that if you're scared of the NDP, the
Corey
24:38
the best option to stop them now may be the Wild Rose. And if you're scared of the Wild Rose, the best option to stop them now might be the New Democrats. You can't scare people away from this majority option if you're not the most likely place for them to go.
Corey
24:51
It's pretty tough to tell people if you're in a clear third. Now we'll see how these polls go in the next couple of days. Okay,
SPEAKER_01
24:55
Okay, so half a dozen to a dozen polls, yes. One, two, three PCs generally have been in third in these polls. The Wild Rose and NDP have been oscillating between first and second.
SPEAKER_01
25:04
Is smart money still on the PCs? I guess that's my question. And before I move to the next one, is it still on the PCs? Or no, should we be giving more credence to what we're seeing in the data? Smart money
Carter
25:13
money is always on the PCs. You've got a dynasty that is 44 years in the making. It is not going to go away because one guy stands up and has a good night or a bad night. and there will be people who are walking into the polling booth who have thought of nothing during the 28-day campaign but they are told and they will go and they will vote PC, period.
Corey
25:36
Well, no. I mean, they have institutional advantages. I would agree with Stephen on that but smart
Corey
25:40
smart money is not on the party that's been in third for two and a half weeks. Okay,
SPEAKER_01
25:44
Okay, so these polls you think we give credence to a little bit at
Corey
25:46
at least? I think you've got to give credence to them at this point and I'm not saying that polls are right all the time but what I'm saying is we've got a lot of trend lines here. And none of those trend lines are in the PCS. Okay, so the bulls
Carter
25:55
bulls were wrong in 2012, but they weren't that wrong. That's
SPEAKER_01
26:01
eight of them in a row. And we
Carter
26:03
we were able to get in and change people's mind at the last minute with a narrative that, frankly, isn't available. Right? So what's the narrative right now that is available to the PCs? What's Randy Dawson thinking of? It's okay, though, because he did the 2012 campaign. campaign so
Carter
26:19
so what's he going to do that's going to be the miracle on the prairies part seven that
Carter
26:24
that will bring back the
SPEAKER_01
26:26
the uh the pcs ring so so tell me about that so mix that in what is he what are the pcs number one going to do number
SPEAKER_01
26:33
number two cory just talked about the
SPEAKER_01
26:35
the the two parties maybe canceling each other out the ndp and the wild rose if you wanted to you know play off that fear mongering what
SPEAKER_01
26:41
what other roadblocks are there i mean how do the
SPEAKER_01
26:44
the pcs stumble is there a road for them that's a clear path going forward or is it or is it one of high risk where they where that resonance to that message
Corey
26:53
message does not get through I
Corey
26:55
think we're about to find out what half a million dollars of opposition research buys frankly yeah that's do they have anything that's the path forward for them it's got to be if they have it they would be holding off till the last week okay I feel like maybe the PCs might have done that last time but well
Carter
27:10
well no I mean the last time it was luck right there was there was stuff that popped up them I mean it was the The Sunday after the debates. So we tried to spin out the debates. We tried to spin out a whole bunch of, you know, we won.
Carter
27:22
Albertans will come back, blah, blah, blah. Nothing really got traction until Paul Simon started talking about the Lake of Fire.
Carter
27:29
That got traction. Yeah.
Carter
27:31
Yeah. And that became something we were able to jump on.
Carter
27:33
That wasn't planned. That was just luck.
Carter
27:36
But for a blog post,
Carter
27:40
We managed it quite well, but we managed it. We didn't manufacture it. And I would suggest that if there was any goodies in the PC war room, they were already out. I
Carter
27:51
mean, have you seen evidence of a PC war room in this campaign?
Corey
27:55
I've barely seen evidence of a PC playground.
Carter
27:58
There doesn't seem to be anything.
Corey
28:00
Yeah, this has got to be one of the most fascinating election campaigns. He introduces a bad news budget and he runs on the bad news budget. I mean, let's just cut out all of the other bullshit and get right down to the base facts. Is this not the stupidest idea anybody around this table has ever heard? So a businessman
SPEAKER_01
28:17
businessman making a business case. I mean, that's effectively what this was. But you're
Carter
28:21
you're not making a business case to business people. You're making a business case to voters. And voters want things, and they want things from their government. And you have to choose sides. You know, Stephen Harper is the pro at choosing a 40% issue and winning. He's fine with 40% of the vote. He does not beg for 68.
Carter
28:46
the left side of the ledger,
Carter
28:48
he ticked off the right side of the ledger, and
Carter
28:50
and he ticked off the center by
Carter
28:52
by making the decisions he made in his budget. There
Carter
28:55
There weren't enough tax increases for the center and the left, there weren't enough cuts for the right, and each of those two things ticked off the others.
Carter
29:06
So if you're someone with a kid in school, you're
Carter
29:08
you're angry about this budget. if
Carter
29:10
you're someone with a kid in post-secondary you're angry about this budget if you're for someone who's had some interaction with the health care system you're angry about this budget and then you have to pay as brian jean so cleverly
Carter
29:21
cleverly pointed out twenty five hundred dollars more in
Carter
29:25
in taxes next year to
Carter
29:27
to get less services yeah
Corey
29:29
yeah i i mean he he chose a plan that that pleased nobody and he did this with the thinking that he had the entire right swallowed up these wheels were turning back when daniel smith was a happy pc caucus member and and it looked like there was no opposition whatsoever things have changed pretty dramatically yeah
Carter
29:50
yeah it's going to be a fine election on the fifth okay
SPEAKER_01
29:53
okay i want to move it to our last segment over under and the lightning round okay so this is very
Carter
29:56
very simple here we go i'll give you
SPEAKER_01
29:57
you a question i want a yes no i want a one word answer i want an over and under all you guys will get it okay the
SPEAKER_01
30:04
jim prince's debate score tonight 60 over Over or under? Corey? Under.
SPEAKER_01
30:09
I want to discuss it more, but I won't based on the rules of the game. Okay. The NDP doubled their vote in Calgary. Over or under? Oh, way over.
SPEAKER_01
30:17
One thing the PC should be satisfied with tonight. Corey? Lighting.
SPEAKER_01
30:22
They survived. Should they be impressed with the lighting? It was nice lighting. Global does a good job.
Carter
30:27
Okay. They do a good,
Carter
30:28
they do good, they do good debates. The
SPEAKER_01
30:30
The one thing the Wild Rose should be satisfied with tonight.
Carter
30:35
Taxes. They have 59 taxes, $2,500 per people. Message
SPEAKER_01
30:40
If one candidate needed more prep going into this debate, who would it have been? David Swann.
Carter
30:46
Yeah, hard to argue.
SPEAKER_01
30:48
The one thing the NDP can be proud about tonight?
Corey
30:52
Rachel Notley. She's great. She's
SPEAKER_01
30:54
She's fantastic. She actually looked and sounded like
SPEAKER_01
30:56
like a premier. Between one and seven, how much trouble are the PCs in right now? Seven high, one low.
Corey
31:03
Seven? Really? Seven, seven, seven. I'd add more sevens, but you gave us a scale, and I follow your rules. You know, we follow
Carter
31:09
follow your rules, Zane, as you know. The seven-point scale. It's
SPEAKER_01
31:13
Yeah. Fair to say that the election is for the PCs to lose or the other parties to win at this point? At
Carter
31:19
At this point, I'd say that the PCs are clawing back in. I think that they were down to as low as 25.
Corey
31:26
I think it's going to take a miracle on the prairies to keep the PCs in.
SPEAKER_01
31:30
Are we going to see Bozo eruptions from either the NDP or the Wild Rose? More importantly, are they going to be important? You're going to see Bozo eruptions from the PCs.
Carter
31:35
PCs. We are about to see caucus discipline go away. Every man for himself, and Thomas Lukasik was just the first one.
Corey
31:43
Oh, I love it. Great answer. I mean, I guess I'd say I think he means more Bozo eruptions because the Indies and Wild Rose, they both have. Absolutely
Carter
31:50
Absolutely true. Both dealt with very well by the leaders. At
SPEAKER_01
31:53
At this point, pretty buried deep, but Wild Rose crossers, were they liabilities or assets? Where does the judgment stand right now?
Corey
32:02
kryptonite, man. And they exploded when people touched them. They were a trap. They made Jim Prentice think that there was just no way he could lose.
SPEAKER_01
32:10
Smith by his side right now, would anything have been different?
Corey
32:14
think you mean Smith under his feet. Well, Smith
SPEAKER_01
32:17
his thumb. I'm getting way too much abuse on these questions. Okay.
SPEAKER_01
32:21
Achilles heel for the NDP going forward.
Carter
32:25
The NDP. Their platform. At some point, she's going to talk about a bitumen upgrade. And that's going to be the ballgame. Scale of 1 to 100,
SPEAKER_01
32:33
100, how NDP is Rachel Notley?
Carter
32:38
I actually don't know. I'm looking forward to finding out.
Carter
32:41
Interesting. Is this election actually about nothing?
Corey
32:45
No, absolutely not. This is the most choice we've had in ages. No,
Carter
32:48
No, we finally got a Democratic election. Sadly, the Democratic choices don't seem to include much in the center. After
Corey
32:57
The guy couldn't look more like Nixon.
Carter
33:00
Nixon. Oh, my God, the picture of him with his peace signs on either side and then his sweating brow with Rachel Notley's JFK. Too
Corey
33:09
Too much. I suspect if you knew the senator, you'd know that was facetious. Okay,
SPEAKER_01
33:14
Okay, think about this one a bit, because I know the answer is easy at the tip of your lips, but does Prentiss regret
SPEAKER_01
33:21
regret running for PC leader at this point?
Corey
33:25
I think Prentiss might have a sliding door regret for his whole life after leaving cabinet.
Carter
33:30
Yeah. Well, I don't know. $2 million a year makes me feel pretty good about myself, but I don't know. I mean, he wanted power. This was the way to get power. As
SPEAKER_01
33:40
As it stands today, who wins this election?
Carter
33:44
No one wins the election. I think it comes down to a minority government, and the Albertans are back to doing this again.
SPEAKER_01
33:52
That's a wrap. Episode 527. Corey Hogan, Stephen Carter, I'm Zane Veltri. We'll be back for episode 528. very shortly. Have a good one.