Transcript
Zain
0:02
This is the Strategist episode 1905. My name is Zain Velji. With me as always, Stephen Carter, Shannon Phillips. Carter, happy Alberta Day.
Carter
0:10
It's a big day for Alberta. You know, is this
Carter
0:13
this the founding of Alberta then? Is this what we will recognize as?
Zain
0:17
January 26th is the founding of Alberta. When the day we record episode 1905, it's actually written in the Strategist's charter. Oh! Shannon, I don't know if you're aware of this. Yeah.
Zain
0:27
But the day we record episode 1905, which is the year Alberta was founded, is the day Alberta was founded.
Zain
0:34
It's a confusing sentence, but it makes complete sense because I was reading it verbatim.
Shannon
0:38
But can we somehow override that using section 33 of the strategist charter?
Zain
0:43
I will trade you section 33 for a four-month petition if you can collect 170,000 signatures. And
Shannon
0:50
And then the exit is sometime in 2026? That's
Zain
0:52
That's right. Yes. Yes. I might pair it with the police force and some other things just to keep it spicy. Yeah,
Zain
0:58
Yeah, just to have a release valve, as I like to call it. A
Zain
1:01
A release valve. That's my word.
Zain
1:04
Where do we want to begin, my friend? This was a busy weekend. So, Chad? Can I tell you something? Yeah.
Zain
1:12
I was lined up. I think this might be a good segue. I was lined up to do three American news hits this weekend on Besson's comments, CNN, MSNBC, twice. to talk about Besson and then of course Carter America happened to America yeah they didn't want to hear about that fucking shit so do we want to start there in the sense because we've got Besson's comments about Alberta which are newsworthy in the sense of having a extremely senior American official swiping right on Canada while we're still married right and then you have the insanity that was the murder of another US civilian in Minnesota soda so and and in some ways all this shit is kind of connected um
Zain
1:58
um in in not and and i shouldn't even say in a dotted line way in a very direct way where a country with an imperialist uh you know sentiments with a fascist sentiment um looking at options looking at takeover and not giving a fuck about any of the dissent internally so carter that was a question code in a very zane velgey way where do you want to get started my friend there
Carter
2:21
was a question there okay there was a question there okay you've
Zain
2:25
you've heard the show before there was a question there yes yeah yeah the
Carter
2:27
the answer is yes right shannon always say yes oh yeah yeah always
Zain
2:34
emphatically let's begin let's begin with besant and then we'll go to minnesota um how
Zain
2:39
how wild is it that the u.s treasury secretary is is saying alberta would not just make a good partner he added more to what What would then if it was just that, if it was just that, hey, Alberta would be a good partner for us in normal times. That's like sounds like very plain language being like, yeah, we would be a good economic trade partner. Oh, no. The fucker then clarifies that Alberta would be a really good get for them. Yeah.
Carter
3:03
Yeah. No. And, you know, he heard something about an independence referendum. Right. Like me.
Carter
3:09
How this guy is is is absolutely jumping into our national conversation. What I thought was interesting is watching the pro-separation organizers distance themselves from that comment almost as soon as it was made. It was like, no, no, we're planning to be independent, not part of the United States. And I wonder how that impacts their overall independence signature gathering, if it does seem like the United States covets Alberta. And I think it's
Carter
3:42
it's absolutely true. the United States right now covets Alberta, not just as a separate state, but as a state of the union of the United States of America.
Zain
3:55
is from a strategy perspective, it is an interesting conversation what the strategists for the separatists, if you can call them that, need to do when America covets you. Because to some, it might be a very attractive off-ramp to say, yeah, becoming American is actually not a terrible thing. U.S. dollar, American passport, all those false promises that come with that, right? Or hypothetical promises, let me call it that. But for others, they seem to be really retreating away. But Shannon, I'll give you a swing at the core question. Best sense comments.
Shannon
4:25
They may not covet Alberta necessarily.
Shannon
4:28
necessarily. That might just be performance art. But what they do covet and what they are getting is destabilization of Canadian politics by
Shannon
4:36
by using, and they know exactly what they're doing with this. We have I've seen, for example, like Dating Bat to the Wexit hashtag having its antecedents coming out of Russia. We know that some of this stuff has its antecedents in destabilization by hostile foreign actors.
Shannon
4:58
Besant and the National Security Establishment of the United States know that as well. And
Shannon
5:03
And so what they are doing is he wanted to just give a little pop between the eyes to Carney because they were butthurt about how he got famous
Shannon
5:12
at Davos from the speech, right? And they were mad at the, you know, big Davos eggplant that Carney came out of that speech with. And
Shannon
5:24
And so they knew what our weakness is in terms of the prime minister's ability to govern this place. And they went straight for it. What
Shannon
5:34
What this means for Alberta separatists, I
Shannon
5:37
mean, in some ways, it clarifies the mind, and it certainly consigns them more to the more, you know, conspiratorial and deeply online segment of the electorate that, you know, nothing's going to move. And it certainly closes them off, I think, from soft separatists or persuadable people. It means that it's only people who are essentially slaves to the toxic rectangle are going to be accessible to them in their little movement.
Zain
6:10
Carter, I'm curious to get your take on their strategy here of denying Americanism as a core part of their strategy or actually leaving the door open, because you would think that there'd be part of their coalition that they are forming, at least in the signature gathering phase, that might not be detracted from the American opportunity, but see it as a possibility. You know, the way I'll kind of put it, like, I thought the separatist strategy had threefolds. Number one, you make it socially acceptable for them to get really loud about separatism, right? That it's a socially acceptable thing to talk about, that it won't get you barred into the corner of society. Number two, you make it a solution to any grievance you have. Any grievance whatsoever, separatism is a solution. And number three, and this is where I'm surprised they're rejecting America, I fundamentally thought it was about finding a dance partner. And now that America has emerged as a potential dance partner, I'm surprised that their strategy has been to reject America, at least publicly. I'm curious to get your thinking on whether you agree with my thesis or what you think of their strategic approach here.
Carter
7:16
I think that your first two steps are absolutely right. I mean, I think that making it acceptable to talk about, you know, separation was and is kind of the first priority. And then the second is, you know, this is the solution to all problems, as Brexit was to all issues in Great Britain.
Carter
7:36
You know, I would have thought your third step would have made sense in terms of finding a home. I don't see a lot of five million dollar country or five million person countries being successful in the international stage. You know, we we have an outsized influence as Canadians. We would not have an outsized influence as Albertans. I just don't see a five million person country, six million, seven million as we grow. oh i just don't see us having the the type of uh strength that the separatists think
Carter
8:11
think we're going to have so having a home having a home to go to saying you know we're going to be a a part of the united states of america i thought might have worked but i know i i see these these folks saying you know that seems to be a uh fissure
Carter
8:26
fissure that has happened within the within their organizing ranks uh because obviously uh wrath uh jeffrey wrath is talking about it like we're going to get a 500 billion or 900 billion dollar loan half
Zain
8:39
trillion is what they've currently yeah currently suggested that they're trying to negotiate half a trillion dollar uh a transition loan as they call it why
Carter
8:46
why would we need a transition loan i thought this was going to be better for us we were so rich i thought we were going to be rich rich but in fact we're going to need money to to to transition a half a trillion dollars i thought it was 900 trillion or 900 billion but doesn't matter all that is is is fucking insane um because wrath seems to want us to go one direction other organizers have us going the other direction uh there is no unified outcome of this should we separate seems to be as far as we're getting to the question and it's not dissimilar from quebec at that stage yes or no if you do separate well what does that mean quebec always had this we'll We'll separate, but we'll still be a part of the Canadian identity, right?
Carter
9:28
right? Or we'll be a part of Canada in some fashion. Alberta seems to be like, we'll separate. We'll be completely unique and on our own, but we may have U.S. ties and we may have Canadian ties. We'll probably have all the ties because, you know, we're a tie-wearing country. That's probably what we'll wind up doing.
Zain
9:46
Shannon, I'm curious to get your take about the separatists rejecting America as an ideal, or at least as part of a signature gathering ramp for them as they try
Zain
9:56
try to hit their sub-200,000 number.
Shannon
9:59
I think they probably see it as strategically dangerous for them right now.
Shannon
10:03
I mean, that's the only thing. I don't know what you think, Zane. What were you going to say to
Shannon
10:08
to those American outlets before once again they murdered one of their own citizens in the street?
Shannon
10:16
I'm super curious because I don't know why they're doing this. other than they must just think it's a bad idea in the short term. But obviously the game is afoot because they're also bragging about how they're talking to the State Department.
Zain
10:27
My theory is going to be very simple, that they're maybe not the most strategic bunch. To Carter's point, separation was their biggest sort of aim. But now that a dance partner has appeared, if they're smart, they would also not reject that outright as being a reason why other people would support it. So kind of adding to point number two, you add a list of every grievance you have, immigration, kid, woke ideology, whatever that might look like, right? Your taxes. Separation is the answer. And there could be a potential to be negotiated later. U.S. dollar one-to-one conversion, an American passport, like all these sort of things could be upside for you that you may find a home. And if you're more aligned with the Trump ideology, that could actually be quite a motivator for folks. my main point was that this is a serious threat whatever
Zain
11:16
like this is like a like that was my point back to be like two things we're proudly canadian so fuck off this is a serious threat but it's a serious threat with a zealous minority and we have seen what happens when zealous minorities go up against silent and flabby majorities which is they often win against them especially when those people are like what the fuck do i do with my hands like anchorman they don't know what they're up to that was going to be my i don't have i don't i'm not reading their their minds. I'm just a bit surprised that they're not embracing America as aggressively as I thought they would.
Shannon
11:43
It's very strange. And I think, you know, maybe they just don't want the rest of Canada meddling in, you know, a no campaign, that kind of thing. I don't know if they're that smart to think it through that far. But I mean, if I was them, I would want to keep this within Alberta's borders and be up against what you, I think, correctly characterize as sort of that that more silent majority, right, who have already, quite frankly, made themselves heard through the petition. They're not that silent.
Shannon
12:13
It's really important to
Shannon
12:16
to note that this is not the first time in Canadian history that we have had a foreign power talk about sovereignty of one of our provinces.
Shannon
12:26
This has happened before. De Gaulle, you know, came and gave that very very famous speech in whatever year it was uh uh and in montreal you know where he said i was in the 60s and uh what happened a major diplomatic incident happened
Shannon
12:42
after that speech and he wasn't even saying you know like we'll take you over we'll give you one-to-one currency with the french or we'll you know we'll help you out uh he didn't even say any of that all he said was vive le Québec libre, and everyone lost their ever-loving fucking minds. And it would seem to me that while mind-losing is not on the agenda, given the trading relationship,
Shannon
13:11
seems to me that something needs to be on the agenda, diplomatically and message-wise.
Carter
13:16
And I thought off the bat that this idea of foreign interference in our little referendum random was a joke, right? That there wouldn't be any American money flowing in to get this done. And now I've got to be honest, I'm not entirely sure that it's not flowing in. I think that there must be some Americans who see an opportunity to mess with us, to destabilize us, to Shannon's earlier point, and will put a million dollars into it, right? A million dollars is a sizable amount larger than than you're supposed to spend on these referendums to begin with so what is going on um who's funding it and you know is is jeffrey rath you know who's funding his his little adventures down into washington for example um
Carter
14:05
there's there's little there's questions being asked now that i wasn't there by me that i wasn't asking 10 days ago all because we have direct direct interference from the Treasury Secretary, which is absolutely insane. You would think that the Treasury Secretary has other things to talk about, you
SPEAKER_03
14:25
throwing it out there.
Zain
14:27
Carter, I want to talk about when we talk about diplomatic response to Shannon's point, I want to talk about if and when Carney gets involved in this conversation. He's already had to respond to the China trade deal by Trump. But I'm curious if and when, because to my earlier point, you could argue this is all connected, that
Zain
14:43
that everything that where this is a giant soup that's all connected so that this is a lever that could have an impact on China, that can have an impact on trade deal, that can have an impact on their imperialism, that can have an impact on American domestic policy. You could make that connection. So I'm curious about the China question in, I'm sorry, the Carney question in a second here. But before that, can I get to Smith? I am curious why, given these new realities, America courting us, Smith's allowance of a month longer and a reduced threshold, why Danielle Smith is skating so freely right now, or at least it seems to me to be skating so freely, as being a fucking instigator of this entire fucking situation. situation, clock back one year, Mar-a-Lago, if you want to, if you want to make that a suite of evidence A. But where is
Zain
15:33
is the political reality? What are you surprised to see? And what would you be strategizing as the opposition or as others to make sure that the person who is very much responsible is held responsible?
Carter
15:47
I think that this is the Alberta NDP's responsibility, not Mark Carney's responsibility. I think that Mark Carney coming in and making this a federal priority would just elevate things uh markedly and and i don't want to see that i i think that mark carney's taking the right approach uh by ignoring the situation and staying aside you know standing aside for it i
Carter
16:07
mean there's an open question as to whether or not our good friend cory hogan should take a position and jump in as a liberal member of parliament in the province of alberta yeah
Carter
16:17
i think that that it would be wiser uh perhaps he's got some sort of activities that he can engage in that would start to put the hammer to Danielle Smith. But I really see this as Nahed Nenshi. I mean, this is the Alberta, and this should be an 80-20 issue for the NDP. This should be something where they can get in and say, this has been started by Danielle Smith, this has been facilitated by Danielle Smith, to the point now where we have the American Treasury Secretary stepping in, and we are going to say, no, Danielle Danielle Smith, stop fucking about. Stop this. This is now no longer funny. This isn't just a political opportunity to gain support from your 20% crazies. This is now something that is becoming dangerous,
Carter
17:07
dangerous, downright dangerous for all citizens of the province of Alberta. And Danielle Smith needs to be held to account. But I don't see any of that. and
Carter
17:19
and I don't know if it's just I'm looking at the wrong spot I don't know if this exists and I'm just not seeing it I get emails from the NDP I think every other day telling me that my membership has expired you
Carter
17:33
where the fuck are we on the referendum? Are we not going to take a position? Are we just going to allow that to unfold? And I think the Alberta NDP needs to do it not the
Carter
17:43
the Federal Liberal Party
Zain
17:46
I've got a strategic question question about the NDP on that particular front, but Shannon, I'll let you have a swing at this too, and then I'll kind of bring my thought on this. Whether you agree or disagree with Carter, it's the broader Danielle Smith question and her accountability on this file.
Shannon
17:58
Yeah, I mean, my only thoughts, and maybe you just want to go straight to your question, because I don't have much to add to what Carter has said. I do see the
Shannon
18:06
the main responsibility here coming from the
Shannon
18:09
the opposition, and I think it's important for them to move quickly, quicker than than they have on some of this. Like last week, you know, I think it's great that they're doing work around health care. And it too is an 80-20 issue for the New Democrats. So no shade there. But there seems to be a bit of lag in terms of the communications ability to push out quick messages and to respond to events of the day and to do so in a way that punches through um that is still a problem for them to solve that i think they're like they've improved but it's not quite there yet because i'm struggling to find another actor within the system that can uh as directly as the opposition can say why have you not repudiated this uh
Shannon
18:59
uh danielle smith where is your letter uh to scott besant telling him to back the fuck off and butt the fuck out um where is Is your instructions to your Alberta's envoy in Washington that you, you know, like, that says, like, we are not going to tolerate this kind of interference in our internal affairs, right? Like, Alberta has diplomatic levers, too. Where is the pressure for them to do something, anything? Because right now, you know, what Daniel Smith can do is just duck and cover for the next news cycle and the next set of fresh horrors. And, but really, you know, there needs to be some pressure put on her caucus and cabinet as well, because some of them will break, because
Shannon
19:45
because there's traitors among them.
Zain
19:48
Here's my theory on the NDP. Tell me if I'm overthinking this, okay? And it's, it's, and I have a bias towards action. So I don't think this comes from a point of not doing anything. But here's my theory, okay? And it's not like I've discussed this with anyone in the NDP. I'm just, this is how I'm processing this. Which is, if
Zain
20:03
if the NDP act on a file would stake so high, then
Zain
20:07
then it becomes like any other, or if they become the main proponent on the against side of things, it becomes like any other 50-50 partisan jump ball. That
Zain
20:16
That it actually adds more oxygen to the separatist side, which says, oh, if the NDP are against it, then I will do whatever the NDP on the other side of that. Which perhaps, to my first point, opens up the opportunity for those light separatists to be like, well, fuck that. If Nayib Nenshi is for against this, then I'm fucking for it. And I don't know if that's going to be I don't mean to say Albertans are not thoughtful about this on such a high stakes issue. But the fact is that if this is being used as a list of every grievance and separatism is a solution, and the NDP are on the other side of that, to me, I just worry.
Zain
20:51
Yeah, I hear that. What we're thinking if it's like strategically incorrect, like I could be I really am open to hearing the other side of that argument. Well,
Shannon
20:58
Well, there's some other issues where you've seen that the NDP has been full-throated, right? Like, coal.
Shannon
21:04
The NDP has gone straight into it, you know, since, like, basically 2020, right? It is still not a 50-50 issue.
Shannon
21:15
It is still, like, at worst, like a 70-30. you still have you know whenever like the enviros do a poll or pollsters go in to the field on this topic you will still see a good chunk of conservative voters who do not support this and that's like coming up on six years of the ndp going at this issue with their full chest so i mean they're like i don't know if it would become that and i'm not saying that they run Ron Thomas-Lukaszek's petition thing, right?
Shannon
21:45
But what I'm seeing
Shannon
21:47
seeing is there's no one else in this system who has the set of tactics that an opposition does.
Shannon
21:54
Shannon Phillips or Stephen Carter cannot waltz out and say, you know, like, Daniel Smith needs to write a letter to Scott Bassett. Well, they can, but it's just fucking ridiculous, right? But
Shannon
22:03
But when the official opposition does
Shannon
22:05
or when the official opposition, you know, even writes to other actors within the American system and says, you know like you do not speak right or or or pushes on the door of the federal government or other like the and asks questions in the legislature and and and forces accountability like to smoke out the separatists like nobody else can smoke out the separatists in the ucp which is deeply unpopular like the opposition can and nobody else can tar daniel smith with being like well not even a soft separatist like a full-blown um or at least she harbors some in in her premier's office, no other actor in the system can do that besides the NDP.
Zain
22:46
Carter, am I overthinking it? Am I wrong strategically?
Carter
22:49
Well, I think you're
Carter
22:51
you're overthinking it. I think that, frankly, the... There's
Zain
22:55
There's a natural spot. Like, I agree, the natural, like, opposition is the opposition that they should play against something that they are opposed to and that the majority of the population is opposed to. It's
Carter
23:03
80-20 issue. And I don't think that, you know, I don't think that had Nenshi taking a position competition is going to make it an 80 or, you know, make it a 60, 40, you know, Oh, I hate, you know, Nancy so much. I'm going to separate just doesn't feel like it's going to drive a lot of, of people. Um, you know, I
Zain
23:24
think, I think I hate, I hate Nancy so much. There's a bunch of steps in between ergo. I'm going to separate. Right. And I think this is what I'm trying to suggest, but I hear your point. I'm not interrupting you further. Yeah. I don't
Carter
23:34
don't see that that happening i i think that neji has an opportunity to be on the side of 80 go get that right
Zain
23:42
right that is supposed to be there for you for sure and he's mentioned it multiple times but i hear what you're saying around like the aggressiveness i haven't i have another to
Zain
23:50
to shannon's question of actors or people within the system this will define system in the broader sense shannon but i'm curious to get both of your takes on this in terms of folks that that have a voice that
Zain
24:02
that should be and potentially running more of a campaign on this and could experience either some revenge and or some future political upside. Have I given you enough clues to guess the name?
Zain
24:17
What do you think of Jason Kenney stepping in more formally in this particular moment than he has online? I'm very curious because, of course, we know based on what could happen in their conservative leadership race. Jason Kenney is a rumored player in that. There's obviously a revenge and sort of like, these are the people that fucked me over and have now metastasized even more into this movement. I'm curious your guys' take on his playing a more formal role. Would you, if he called either of you as neutral advisors, would you suggest that he do so? And I know he's going to have you both on speed dial, especially you, Shannon.
Zain
24:54
I'm curious on the pure... I'm a pure strategy perspective. What would you advise them in this particular moment?
Shannon
25:01
Do I have to talk to Jason Kenney? Ew.
Carter
25:04
This is the rules, man. You have to do the strategy to the person you don't want to do the strategy to. We've been doing this for years. Have to do the strategy to the
Shannon
25:12
the person you don't want to. Don't Jason Kenney. Ew. Okay, you go ahead, Carter. And I'll think about having to shake his clammy, weird hand again. Go ahead. You could do
Zain
25:21
do it on the phone. I like that for Shannon it's an in-person meeting already. I like that it's an in-person meeting without
Carter
25:28
any other... On my virtual call with Jason Kenney, I would say... With
Zain
25:32
With the cameras off, just to be clear, just
Zain
25:34
your eyes don't burn. This
Carter
25:36
This is an opportunity for you to redefine yourself within the Alberta population. This is an 80-20 issue for you too.
Carter
25:44
80% of the population can start thinking of you, frankly, the way that they start thinking of Thomas Lukasik. Lukasik was a spent force in Alberta politics. gone history didn't exist and he comes back with the fair for canadian petition and he's boom he's right back into it people love thomas lucasic now his his previous history is completely erased his eight thousand dollar roaming fees gone right no one remembers anything about thomas lucasic you know the combatant deputy premier i forgot
SPEAKER_01
26:15
forgot about that i
Shannon
26:16
i remember the labor uh uh dispute legacy but i am extremely old and i'm just saying it's
Carter
26:23
it's all gone it's all gone it's all under the bridge so jason kenney has the opportunity to do the same thing by becoming the leader frankly that nancy should be and i do think that jason kenney has some of the levers available that the opposition caucus would also have he
Carter
26:40
he has the opportunity to get in front of the camera and talk to the camera and people will listen i think that's true gen
Carter
26:47
gen pop won't too
Zain
26:50
so i'm gonna push back a channel by you a bit more time i'm gonna go back to carter on this um why does kenny need to redefine himself in the alberta population i guess the other way to ask that question is does this help him should he have national conservative uh opportunity and ambitions because the argument could be made that why would you go against the same base that that that keeps Pierre alive, and that will probably allow him to get through his leadership review later this week. Why would you actively go up against them if you have future ambitions? So to me, it's like Alberta is OK. I get it. Like Albertans. But his next potential group
Zain
27:25
group that he needs to appeal to might be federal conservative members and voters before he ever gets a chance to have a shot at prime minister. So I'm curious if that was what he clarified with and was honest with you saying this is what i want to do carter next would your advice stay the same it
Carter
27:40
it absolutely stays the same because those people that are that you know the the 80 of albertans is 100 of manitobans the 80 of albertans is 100 of ontarians not you know like you're able to make a cross
Carter
27:53
cross country impact in conservative in the circles of people that want to stay in canada and and it's It's the vast majority of conservatives want to stay in Canada. A very small minority of conservatives think that Alberta should leave. So, you
Carter
28:10
you know, this is an opportunity for Jason Kenney to put himself back into the national spotlight. He will get national attention by speaking out on this because this is a national news story, especially with the Treasury Secretary from the United States jumping
Zain
28:24
jumping in and making it. This escalation, for
Zain
28:26
for sure. Like, Kenney's done the tweeting and the... But, like, this escalation almost, like, could be a starting gun for Kenny in my mind, as we just have this conversation. Shannon, do you agree with Carter here that there is a space, perhaps even instrumentation, perhaps even good strategy for Jason and Kenny to jump in? Or if he called you, would you advise otherwise?
Shannon
28:48
No, I would probably advise him to do it, and here's why.
Shannon
28:54
couple of reasons. Number one is people, at least what I understand of folks in conservative politics, is that guys like Jason Kenney believe
Shannon
29:04
believe that this sort of populist
Shannon
29:07
populist shit fit, the populist tantrum is going to kind of wear itself out over time. They
Shannon
29:16
They actually don't believe that that rump of the party is going to, like, it's either cope or hope or whatever it is, but they actually don't believe that that part of the party is, you know, sort of there to stay. And
Shannon
29:31
And they would prefer to repudiate that wing and those tactics of the party to kind of reclaim the Conservative Party of Canada and its associated entities along the more business
Shannon
29:45
business conservative path. path i i think that guys like jason kenney actually believe that leaving aside that he actually has some you know very uh hardcore crazy
Shannon
29:58
social conservative and other things that are not out of the chamber of commerce whatsoever right and i think it's it's it's a bit of revision revisionist history and a total misread of his politics to believe that to be the case but he doesn't like these people as much as we don't like these people right uh and uh and he does believe that reconstituting the Conservative Party of Canada and whatever the Conservative Parties are in their various provincial sections, that road runs through getting rid of this sort of populist wing and
Shannon
30:31
and having them be unsuccessful. And so part of that then is
Shannon
30:38
is for Jason Kenney to make common common cause with people with whom he disagrees on kind of like a never-Trump sort of project whereby they put their principles first, the principle being Canadian Confederation, and it's a principles-first kind of movement that he is doing together with other people with whom he disagrees in
Shannon
30:58
order to open up that center-right lane again in politics that seems to to have been increasingly eroded, right, in favor of just the far right.
Shannon
31:09
And to find places and spaces and membership pockets and all the rest of it where he could move that vision forward. And he could use some partnerships, some work within Alberta to do it. Would it pain me to see such a smart strategy? It would indeed. Because it would mean that I would probably end up circulating in similar rooms as jason kenney which would be gross to me uh but uh it probably is smart for him to do if he wants to rebuild a brand because you have to remember he is not loved in alberta and even not like nationally a bit more but in alberta people do not like him
Zain
31:49
you do for the ndp and jason kenney and i don't have no insight this is we're doing a purely hypothetical conversation right but i'm just curious now in the hypothetical strategy track. Would the NDP want to be in the same lane to Shannon's last point in the same rooms as Jason Kenney? Is that a good thing for them? Or would you, if someone else like him jumps into the floor, kind of lay back, focus on healthcare, do your own thing on other issues? How would you advise them if there was a two, two, three, four, five person, especially a former political opponent, rowing
Zain
32:17
rowing in the same direction as you? The
Carter
32:19
The leader of the opposition in the caucus should be able to dominate over Jason Kenney,
Carter
32:23
right? If they make the choice to be involved, they should dominate and they should be, they
Carter
32:28
they should be the first person in the rooms. If Jason Kenney walks in after them, that's fine, but
Carter
32:33
but they're going to be the first person into those rooms and they're going to be the ones making sure that, uh, people are supporting Alberta
Carter
32:40
Alberta in Canada. That
SPEAKER_03
32:42
That to me is
Carter
32:43
is just, it's a no brainer for Nahid Nenshi, uh, to get up onto his, his, uh, his, his soapbox and start and start because this is, this
Carter
32:54
this is a great opportunity to wedge a lot of people away from daniel smith absolutely
Shannon
33:00
it's good for him too it's good for nahed yeah
Shannon
33:03
yeah i just want to make the other point that like if if uh it's good for the ndp the voters they need are are uh on the edges of the conservatives there's nobody on the left to get right uh it's it's over here in the soft ucp kind of vote maybe the last time they voted ucp was uh or did it you you know, with their hearts was 2019. Maybe they did it half-heartedly in 2023. That's the segment of voters that you want. And so for, you know, them to be on the same team or even in the same spaces sometimes, or at least on this narrow bunch of issues because we're both patriots, I think that's good for the NDP.
Shannon
33:41
I don't see a downside.
Zain
33:46
I'm going to make a hard pivot to Minnesota, but it may not need to be such a hard pivot from everything we've talked about. And I really want to focus on two aspects of this. Number one, the actions that happen in your analysis around the state of America right now, which I'm happy to hear from both of you on because I think it's worthy of time and attention. attention. But secondly, I'm actually, from our purposes, quite curious to hear your take on a theme that we've visited in the past, which is, are politicians being pundits? And we've seen this over the course of the last number of days, where, you know, whether you like it or not, Canadian politicians, to some degree, have been asked or have themselves commented on the situation in the United States, and they've given their sort of like moral sort of value difference sort of commentary etc we've generally been pretty against punditry from politicians mainly because you control the levers of power and you can you actually can do stuff so stop just talking about you know your analysis of the game but i am curious if this moment is different so that's where i want to go on this piece i'll let you get a shot at the first part of it carter and i didn't mean to intend shot with any other well
Zain
34:52
think but i think like that is a what happened this weekend was crazy
Zain
34:57
crazy to watch and and when he counted in total that this is the ninth uh sort of killing by ice uh and they have no stopping uh at least it seems from uh the central administration in terms of uh what their agenda is i'm very curious to just get your top line observations here let
Carter
35:13
let me just ignore the punditry question for a bit because that's the standard we
Zain
35:17
we can get to it we can get to it yeah
Carter
35:18
yeah my my answer it i mean the united states is you know i've been calling them Trumpist because I don't like the, I don't like to grab the fascist word, right? The fascists were the fascists. It's how they define themselves. These people are Trumpists. This is how they define themselves. They have their own police force now. Their police force is ICE and they are the equivalent of the brown shirts in Nazi Germany. They are the ones running around and bullying and beating up and, and, and cause it's not just killing people. It's not just killing them it's it's it's arresting people who are filming it's it's arresting and detaining people who are citizens it is about uh making people get on their back foot and
Carter
36:01
and and and and being afraid to oppose the regime that is the point of the exercise is that i will be afraid to oppose the regime so
Carter
36:11
the the the brown shirts in this case the ice department
Carter
36:15
department you know the the ice team and
Carter
36:18
and i i was very much a kind of against you know eight years ago when people were talking about eliminating ice i was like whatever i mean it's just a government department why don't you put good leadership in there right now i'm like this
Carter
36:30
this is a rogue agency that is doing the work you know doing work that
Carter
36:37
you know literally killing americans uh as well as non-americans um this is a a terrible agency that's gone a terrible direction and i do think it ties back because i do think that one of the reasons that the america that the alberta separatists have said will not necessarily go to the united states is because like right now canadians are like are you fucking kidding me the the tourism numbers are just are devastated no one wants to go to the united states anymore right
Carter
37:05
right everybody's going to go somewhere else instead of going to the united states and frankly if you're someone who is going to the united states right now and you're a canadian i'm questioning your judgment i'm questioning your loyalty i'm questioning your ability to be a part of canadian society because you shouldn't be going to the united states it is a fucking cesspool i saw an article with a guy who's like i've been going before trump but i'll be going after trump dude have
Carter
37:33
read the fucking room don't go to the united states It is dangerous. You're supporting a Trumpist slash Nazi regime that has its
Carter
37:47
its own army that is dedicated to getting rid of you, to destroying you as
Carter
37:53
as a Canadian, as a foreigner. This is ridiculous that anybody would consider it. So having
Carter
38:01
having a Canadian politician jump in as a pundit on this, I'm
Carter
38:06
I'm to a degree fine with because
Carter
38:09
we can't control the
Carter
38:10
the American population and
Carter
38:12
and what the Americans are doing, but we can control what Canadians are doing. And I went, if I was a Canadian politician, I'd be writing the following.
Carter
38:21
Don't go to the United States. It's not safe for Canadians. It is, you know, Canada has to draw a line in the sand right now. And we have to draw the line in the sand that right now, the United States is not our best friend anymore.
Carter
38:36
In some respects, the United States has become something of an enemy.
SPEAKER_01
38:42
And what do you think?
Shannon
38:44
don't think it's punditry at all. I think it's making common cause with the vast majority of voters who are feeling the same feelings.
Shannon
38:50
And they're, especially in big moments, I mean, I'm old enough to remember
Zain
38:54
9-11. You mean the vast majority of voters here in Canada?
Shannon
38:58
Yeah. Like, when you're a Canadian politician providing commentary on what's going on in the United States, particularly after this last weekend. As
Zain
39:05
As Wab Kanu did, just to put names to it, right? As Wab did, right?
Shannon
39:08
right? Why is he doing that?
Shannon
39:10
To give voice to, well,
Shannon
39:12
well, obviously, Obviously, his base's values and his values and the values of his caucus and his cabinet. But also, what that does is it gives me a piece, just technically speaking, it gives me a piece of content that I can go, that guy thinks like I do.
Shannon
39:28
And that's the vast majority of Canadians. And I can see my values then reflected back to me. That's the big thing that Pierre Polyevra cannot do because
Shannon
39:39
because he has 25, 40% of his base that are like Trumpist lunatics, right?
Shannon
39:44
right? It is not an avenue that is available to the BC conservatives, to Alberta conservatives, to federal conservatives.
Shannon
39:53
They won't do it. They won't say it, right? But meanwhile, the electorate is feeling it in those moments. And so that connection is really, really important. important. What it does for the federal liberals is it reminds people why they voted for Carney, not for a narrow, discreet bunch of reasons for renegotiating a trade deal that you may or may not be able to spell, but
Shannon
40:15
but because, like, look at this moment. Look at how important it is. Look at how important it is that that garbage doesn't come north.
Shannon
40:25
And we have to push back in every way that we can to not become that and not be victimized by that as the people of, as the american people are right now that's
Shannon
40:34
that's the that's the piece that is that it's a great you know it's a it's a good political lane for for the liberal party of canada it's a good political lane for the new democrats it's not available to the conservatives it should be uh because it is at once rooted in a concept of the constitution rule of law patriotism all of these used to be foundational conservative values i don't know where the fuck they've gone um
Shannon
40:58
um but uh that is Is why they're doing it. And absolutely. I do think as well that establishing trust in institutions, in political institutions, means I'm going to look, open up my, you know, my feeds, my algorithms, and I'm going to see people that I trust saying
Shannon
41:18
saying messages that resonate with me.
Shannon
41:20
So it's actually a part of responsibility on part of the electeds to actually give voice to some of these values as well.
Zain
41:28
Carter, I'm really curious about, I appreciate both of your comments here. I'm really curious about First Ministers acting alone, premiers in particular, with such a sensitive sort of time that we're in. Would you advise your First Minister to do things like don't travel to the U.S. or make your own comments, especially if they're U.S.-motivated? And I get the inter-Canadian sort of like, you know, they can do whatever they want. They're the leaders of their province. How
Zain
41:53
How are we thinking about this today if you're advising one of the premiers in the province around the guardrails that they should operate in?
Carter
42:02
would advise them not to go to the United States under any circumstance. The exception might be Mark Kearney as the prime minister. He has to go to Washington to do negotiations with the United States. But everybody else, this isn't the time. This certainly wouldn't be the time for Danielle Smith to show up in Mar-a-Lago again, right?
Carter
42:22
right? This would be, you know, a disastrous choice for her to be seen sucking up to the Americans the way that she was sucking up to the Americans one year ago. So my advice to her would be stay at home. My advice to David Eby would be stay at home. Bob Canu, stay at home. Scott Moe, you can do whatever you want. No one cares. What
Zain
42:46
What would your advice be on the words that they say about America?
Zain
42:50
Carter, what would your advice be on what they say about America so as to not catch the ire of the Trump administration? Or would you not be concerned about that as long as you feel like it's a value-driven in principle, that you don't have to run it through the Carney PMO?
Carter
43:04
About the least bit concerned. If I was in Quebec, I would be saying
Carter
43:07
saying to Quebec citizens, don't go to the United States. We care too much about your health. We care too much about your your lives for you to go to the United States right now. If I was the, you know, premier of Ontario, if I was Doug Ford, I'd be taking the exact same positions. I wouldn't be worried about revving up the United States at this point. The United States is pretty fucking revved up on their own.
Zain
43:29
And any thoughts on that? And then I'll wrap up with with a focus back on Minnesota and just some thoughts there from what you're seeing and knowing that we're not American focused. But I'm very curious just to talk to you guys for a few minutes, at least about the Democrats there in a second. But just round me out with your thoughts on premier autonomy here. And if you're worried about anything and the ire of the Trump administration, then let's let's talk about the Democrats.
Shannon
43:55
I'm not really worried about it. I mean, unless you're advertising, running ads with an audience of one, which Doug Ford did do, and actually got the attention of the audience
Shannon
44:04
one. But other than that, I mean, we've seen over the last year that David Eby's numbers came up considerably, as did Wobb's, as did Doug Ford's, when they were very, very clear on their sort of anti-American posturing. And people want to hear that. I don't think that they should be making blanket statements or I'm not going to the states because it may be that David Eby actually needs to go to Washington State or to Oregon or to California or something for some kind of trade related reasons. And you want to leave that open when you're, you know, you want to leave it open for for Wab Kanu to make sure that he's got good trading relationships with Minnesota and elsewhere.
Shannon
44:46
So, you don't want to, but you do want to be really clear with your population and show that you actually care about their safety, to Carter's point. We care too much about your safety for you to take your life in your hands like this. So, be careful, right? I think those kinds of travel warnings, the kind of, you know, we have great Canadian products and showcasing some of that, that's all great. It's great politics. It's great economics, because it's the only language that Trump and co understand. And it, it just helps round out, I think, people's
Shannon
45:20
people's perception of their political leaders again to this, like, are you thinking the same thing I'm thinking? Because, like,
Shannon
45:26
like, who can, who can walk away from what they saw on the weekend? Right? Everybody's kind of feeling the same things. um so i i i think like the autonomy part of the uh in terms of the first ministers is not really
Shannon
45:40
there's no real risk in it uh the risks have already been taken um and the big risks are how dominique leblanc is dealing with you know uh fucking howard nutlick or whoever else
SPEAKER_03
45:52
else he's yeah uh
Shannon
45:52
uh that he's talking to uh you know when fcp goes there or melanie joly or these kinds of people like that's where the risks lie or the new ambassador uh it's not with it's just too small a ball and the premiers need to focus on their own populations arthur
Zain
46:09
arthur we could talk about parliament because it's back and there's a bunch of things carney wants to do and a bunch of things he's talking about including no early election so that would make a news and
Zain
46:19
and frankly be our podcast for any other time except this one yeah so let me stick with america and let me talk about the Democrats. I'm really curious about the acute sort of like Democrats not reading the room or nailing the moment. But like what broader lesson do you kind of have here for despite the fact ICE is doing what they're doing around the Democratic lethargy, which seems to have spread beyond Democrats in the United States to other political apparatus about not knowing how to respond to such a grave, serious, but yet so obviously threatening moment. I think that's That's what's really frustrating to people, which is this is a five alarm fire and their side doesn't have the tools to kind of grapple with it. So perhaps
Zain
46:59
perhaps you could say this is just another instance of that with
Zain
47:03
with the Democrats in Minnesota and more broadly. But
Zain
47:07
But I'm curious to get your take on this as we round out the show.
Carter
47:09
I'm just I'm shocked. Are you guys seeing them anywhere? Like
Carter
47:13
Like I see them on Twitter. Right. And I see them. But where why haven't they gotten outside of outside of
Zain
47:19
of AOC? no outside of aoc i maybe that's just my algorithm and but it's
Carter
47:25
it's aoc like she's still in new york right she's in washington in new york she's she's not walking to the front lines and and trying to protect american citizens by putting her political power
Carter
47:37
power uh in front of them and walking hand in hand with the protesters um to stand against ice you know like where are these politicians where's where are the the the civil rights activists that should be standing up and saying we do not stand for this we're watching journalists get detained we're watching people get pepper sprayed in the face while they're being held down we are watching the decline of american civilization and most of the democrats are watching from their fucking living rooms get
Carter
48:08
get on a plane get yourself to Minnesota. Stand with
Carter
48:14
with the people. Use your power, use your privilege, use your responsibilities to show Americans that their safety will be protected by your presence. And I don't see any of that. I see a couple of tweets about how upset they are, or if they get targeted by the president they they tweet back but
Carter
48:40
but i'm not seeing gavin newsom should be standing side by side with with dim walls saying this is not unacceptable and and the canadian or the the californians stand side by side by going up there and marching and taking a position and being on the front lines of this of this activity against um an organization that's out of hand go
Carter
49:06
go to texas go to you know they're ice is active everywhere go
Carter
49:11
go and be seen standing opposed to the brown shirts of your era shannon
Zain
49:17
shannon your your final thoughts to wrap us up on on the democrats in the u.s with uh what we saw this weekend big
Shannon
49:25
big mistake for the democrats is thinking that their house leadership by which i mean both of their houses is
Shannon
49:30
is their political leadership like
Shannon
49:32
like this does not prevail in canadian politics i i'm great point
SPEAKER_02
49:36
would be such a
Zain
49:36
a great shot jeffries and schumer should be the ones resolving oh yeah like the
Shannon
49:40
the government house leaders get the bills through the house like nobody else except for the nerds on this podcast can name steve mckinnon as the fucking government house leader right
Zain
49:49
we can because he's our colleague for our college but yes but
Shannon
49:52
but but also because we're nerds right like his job isn't to sell the the the business of the government right he's not the political lead he's the house business lead for heaven's sakes and so the the americans since they have misunderstood the role of opposition from the beginning uh
Shannon
50:11
uh of the trump administration they do not understand how to have many messengers for the same uh message how to appoint leaders or you know or like use some of what the the parliamentary system uses run around critics you know areas or regions of expertise any of this No, they don't do it. They're expecting Chuck fucking Schumer to carry the political messages. And Hakeem Jeffries is not far behind him and he ain't a boomer, but he does suck. And this is a serious mistake when the moment calls for politics and politics in the broadest sense of the term. like i i sat and watched these these you know yakety yak uh uh democrats all weekend and i just thought of the mario savo quote and i'm i just pulled it up there comes a time in the operation the machine becomes so odious makes you so sick that you can't take part you
Shannon
51:02
you can't even passively take part you have to put your bodies upon the gears upon the wheels upon the levers upon the apparatus and you've got to make it stop and
Shannon
51:11
and that is where they're at in america And that means the broadest possible political leadership needs to be on the ground in Minnesota, sucking tear gas along with the rest of them and putting their bodies in the machine. Everybody.
Zain
51:29
Wonderful. I mean, it's harrowing, but it's a wonderful quote, and I think a wonderful way to end the podcast. That's a wrap on episode 1905 of The Strategist. My name is Zane Belger. With me, as always, Shannon Phillips, Stephen Carter, and we shall see you next time.
SPEAKER_00
51:50
You've got to place your bodies on the gears, the wheels, all the mechanism, and you've got to indicate to those who own it and those who run it that unless you are free, the machine will be prevented from working at all.