Episode 1898: Hypothetical Squared

Zain 0:02

This is The Strategist, episode 1898. My name is Zain Velji. With me as always, Shannon Phillips, Stephen

Zain 0:10

Hello, friends. Hey, Zain.

Zain 0:12

Carter, we've got urgent business to discuss. The most urgent business. As you know, last episode you bailed with maybe, what, three minutes on the clock? We were about three minutes to recording and you bailed.

Carter 0:23

Yeah, I had some issues, not the least of which is that I couldn't find my microphone. I was in the middle of moving, I

Carter 0:28

I think is the best way to describe it. You'll note my background has significantly changed.

Carter 0:34

It's because I've moved, and I haven't had a

Zain 0:37

a chance to put up to work. Have you moved to Manitoba? Is that where you have moved? No, I've not moved

Carter 0:41

moved to Manitoba. I've moved closer to you. In fact, I walk basically to your house every night when I walk my dogs. Right there, right at your house, right at your door. I always wanted to knock and say hi.

Zain 0:53

Shannon, when Stephen bailed on us last time, we had to come up with an improv game of where should Carter go next.ca. Now, this was, of course, you and I speculating that after the tremendous success of the Calgary party, see that episode, that Stephen Carter would find a landing spot. And we gave several potential

Zain 1:11

potential homes for Stephen Carter, did we not? We

Shannon 1:14

We did. We thought of some liberal

Shannon 1:17

liberal parties in need of the writing of the ship. But little did we know that it wouldn't be there that he landed.

Zain 1:24

No, little did we know, Stephen Carter, that you would have a Canadian press article written about you, which would then be syndicated across all media, letting people know that you're going after the most popular premier in the entire fucking country. Good for you, Stephen Carter. You

Carter 1:38

You know what? I've never liked small challenges. I

Carter 1:41

I prefer the big challenges. And the big challenges are going after the big fish. And now

Carter 1:47

now the big fish in this little pond is, of course, the, you

Carter 1:54

Manitoba PCs against the the mighty Manitoba NDP led

Carter 1:59

led by Wab Canoe. So it's going to be fun.

Zain 2:02

Carter, Carter, Carter. Why? Why? Why? Can

Shannon 2:06

maybe register how many

Shannon 2:08

many more public letters of resignation because of Carter's new gig, .ca?

Zain 2:17

Wait, wait, wait. If we're chatting .ca to stuff, Shannon is learning quickly. Very

Carter 2:22

quickly. We have to buy more domains. This is great. No, come on now. Losing one constituency

Zain 2:28

constituency president because I hired him. No, I actually don't know about this story. So wait, Carter, in all seriousness, is you get announced as the what chief strategist is that the title of this manitoba pc care i think okay campaign director of the manitoba pc campaign yeah

Zain 2:43

yeah and then what happens someone resigns only

Zain 2:47

only one what that's like there was

Shannon 2:49

was an open letter there was an open letter involved it wasn't just like oh fuck this no it was like a full-on like i'm gonna have a public meltdown over the The Trudeau liberal, Stephen Carter, being hired to direct the campaign.

Carter 3:03

In fairness, I'm not a Trudeau liberal, really. I mean, that's

Carter 3:06

that's hurtful. But never worked for Trudeau or

Carter 3:09

or his campaigns. Never did that. So that was the accusation. Who

Zain 3:15

Who was resigned? Is this a this is not an MLA. This is a writing association,

Carter 3:19

association, writing association president. So

Zain 3:22

So Carter, do you want to tell everyone how meaningful they are to you?

Carter 3:25

Oh, yeah, I will. Well, I'm very upset. I'm very, very upset. I'm going to be making telephone calls for

Carter 3:32

for most of the afternoon, making sure that this

Carter 3:35

this doesn't happen again. Although I fear that

Carter 3:38

that my making telephone calls might actually instigate more resignations because

Carter 3:42

because then they'll actually get to talk to me in person.

Carter 3:45

And, you know, my reputation may be one way, but my personality is another. So

Carter 3:50

So we'll see how that actually unfolds. I don't know. I think I'm charming. me i never understand i

Zain 3:57

i actually can i spend a few more minutes on this i and and now i want to earn this oh great i've got i've got two modes which is sarcastic and then earnest this is now earnest okay okay how do you steven carter as you know despite the fact that we make so much fun of you as one of the most well-known strategists in this country how are you actually making these decisions these days in terms of where you go and i think i i'm curious based on like is it underdog status is it like viability like what do you see something like i'm very curious how are you making these calls like they're not just someone who's handing you anyone who is handing you a bag of cash as much as i'd like to say that uh how are you actually thinking about this in

Zain 4:38

in like the modern political climate a bag

Carter 4:40

bag of cash matters like let's not be like like

Carter 4:43

sometimes occasionally once in a while i i have to work for free um which is frustrating because because this is how I earn my living.

Carter 4:51

So people have to, for

Carter 4:53

for the most part, have money and the money to pay me. Manitoba PCs, a little

Carter 5:00

little bit structurally, they have to work on some fundraising,

Carter 5:04

fundraising, and that's part of why I'm coming in, is to help them with those pieces as well.

Carter 5:11

I also want to connect with the person. Abhi Khan, I quite like. um

Carter 5:16

um you know a visible minority leader uh first muslim to be a a party leader um in in in canada uh no i'm sorry not the first muslim first muslim to be a party leader in uh in

Carter 5:32

it's kind of exciting um

Carter 5:34

um but we have two visible minorities uh running the major parties in in manitoba i think that that's an interesting race i

Carter 5:41

i think that um

Carter 5:42

um it's always fun to battle against inherent racism it's always fun to to battle against uh inherent stereotypes i like those things and i do like the underdog status you know it it sometimes

Carter 5:55

sometimes results in in great defeat um

Carter 5:58

um you know it's some but it's also sometimes results in spectacular victories so uh i'm i i like that

Carter 6:07

that feeling that way that i feel when i when i do those projects so when they come around um um i like to jump on board shannon

Zain 6:16

shannon do you have any clarifying questions for for carter because if not i want to jump to a 30 minute hard clock on the conservative motion let's

Carter 6:22

go to the hard clock okay

Zain 6:24

okay i am super fascinated by this i'm not sure i

Carter 6:26

i really like the way she said hard clock no

Zain 6:28

no she's got nothing to say she's like if you want to fight inherent racism wap canoe and the ndp are right there just just just help carter just help okay

Carter 6:37

going to jump all over this okay

Zain 6:38

okay okay fantastic listen let's let's talk about let's talk about the conservative motion okay so the conservatives uh are putting forward a motion as we speak i believe if they have not already um that calls for the federal government to support a bitumen pipeline and the liberals are going to be voting against this motion it has it's a non-binding motion that calls for one or more pipelines enabling the export of at least one million barrels of uh low emission alberta bitumen from a strategic deep water port on the british columbia codes to asian markets uh and for the adjustment to the oil tanker moratorium act while respecting the duty to consult indigenous peoples this that's

Zain 7:17

that's a summary of it is the motion and

Zain 7:19

and so i want to talk about the strategy very simply in in four ways number one the conservative strategy do we like it do we hate it how would we optimize it that's part b b the liberal strategy in response do we like it voting against how would we optimize it going forward and and what what should each of these parties do to make sure their message punches through. So let's start on the conservative side. And Shannon, let me start with you.

Zain 7:44

Is the idea, the mere idea of the conservatives putting this pipeline motion on the table a strategically sound, if not wise one?

Shannon 7:53

Absolutely, it is. This is a great way for them to raise money. It's a great way for them to get up off the mat after the beating they just took at Mark Carney's hands on matters having to do with the economy. It's a great way to wedge your opponent. And, you know, any day that you are united and your opponent is in disarray is a good day. Those are the best issues. And it allows Pierre for the maybe the first time since the election to punch back on an economic issue and get out of the culture wars that he's been kind of stuck in. So it's great for all those those reasons. And when the liberals all vote against it, he can send out his fundraising emails saying, see, the pipeline wasn't real. They're just faking it, which is, you know, a silly message, but fine for the base.

Zain 8:45

Oh, interesting. Carter, I'm interested by a lot of aspects of that response, Shannon. I'll pick up on them in a second. Carter, same top line question to you. Is this strategically wise?

Carter 8:54

think strategically wise insofar as it's politically effective. I don't think strategically strategically wise insofar as it's actually going to help get a pipeline or actually going to help get any economic opportunity or stimulus happening. But that's really not what Pierre Polyev's goal is. Pierre

Carter 9:11

Pierre Polyev's goal is to create a simplistic message that people will understand. You know, beat chest, say liberals vote against pipeline. You know, it's simple. It's not true. I mean, Joe Clark, when I worked with him 100 years ago, you know, we would talk about never ever accept the hypothetical and

Carter 9:31

and this is a hypothetical this is a hypothetical about a hypothetical this

Carter 9:36

this is this is the whole fucking thing you're

Carter 9:38

right squared right so yes we are supporting a pipeline that doesn't exist that goes to nowhere i mean

Carter 9:46

the pipeline pierre if

Carter 9:48

if this is if this is real and this is my same thing with with Danielle Smith. At

Carter 9:53

At some point, this has to be real.

Carter 9:57

because it's hypothetical, I think that

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