Transcript
Zain
0:02
This is a strategist episode 1895. My name is Zain Velji. I can't even do my name, guys. I can't even do my name.
Zain
0:08
Zain Velji. You go
Carter
0:09
dentist and it all
Zain
0:12
I thought it was the P's that I, can I even do the P? P. They're
Zain
0:17
They are popping. Well, I think it's because I'm close. Zain Velji, Shannon Phillips, Stephen Carter. What's up, guys?
Carter
0:24
Well, I'm excited about this episode now that you're kind of, you know, I'm impressed you can still drink out of a mug. That's impressive.
Zain
0:30
yet. Well, I'm going to be talking from the left side of my mouth. Are you in a jail
Carter
0:33
jail cell? Like, where are you?
Zain
0:36
This is a mini recording studio of
Carter
0:40
Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. Where's that? Is it in your house? Did you upgrade?
Zain
0:44
Undisclosed location, Carter. Undisclosed location. Oh, my God. Carter, undisclosed. Oh,
Carter
0:49
Oh, my God. Sorry,
Carter
0:50
you into a place there where you were uncomfortable.
Zain
0:54
Shannon who does that.
Zain
0:55
Proximal to many things. Shannon, how are you?
Shannon
1:00
i'm uh tired of traveling i
Shannon
1:03
i put it that way if that's my honest answer already
Carter
1:05
already you just started with the money firm yeah
Zain
1:09
yeah isn't that what the money firms do so they just make you travel and then make
Zain
1:14
make you useful when you're traveling i think the i
Carter
1:16
i try to the mbap stands for money bucks and phillips right Right.
Shannon
1:24
No. But it is. It's a lot of travel. Put it that way. And B.C. last week, Toronto this weekend. I'm tired of it, but that's OK. We
Zain
1:36
travel. I'm taking my
Shannon
1:37
my kids to Toronto and then I'm staying. The worst.
Zain
1:41
The worst. The worst. We can work. Travel is the worst. Carter, did you have to do weekend work travel? I
Zain
1:48
You never took me on weekend work travel trips when I would have enjoyed that. No,
Carter
1:51
No, we didn't. In fact, what we would do is we'd take your recommendations of where we should go in New York City and then go and do those trips without you. Those were some of our favorites.
Zain
2:03
Fuck you so much. Still
Carter
2:04
Still one of our best ever trips. Are
Zain
2:08
are recording. Of course we are.
Zain
2:10
I'm just trying to get my mouth warmed up.
Carter
2:14
Okay, say Zane Velgey again.
Zain
2:16
Zane Velge. I can't even do it. Now I just forgot my name.
Zain
2:19
Zane Velge. Hey, look, I could have done it. I could have done it. We could start again. Okay, I've got an idea for this show. Stephen Carter, we did a Patreon episode after the live show. Is there anything? I am assuming this is not a Patreon episode, unless it is. I don't
Zain
2:31
Let's just assume it isn't. Anything you wanted to tell the general audience about the Strategist live show? We still have a Part B side coming out to that, maybe sometime this weekend, end with our q a and maybe our interviews
Zain
2:45
interviews with our special guests but steven carter any one thing you want to tell the general audience how's the hangover oh
Carter
2:50
oh man i mean everything was just perfect it was just it was the most fun uh thank you for listening to everybody who's listened to the podcast it has been an exceptionally successful podcast mostly because people love to watch me get beat up so that was that was pretty great so thank you all very much for listening and
Zain
3:10
and thanks Thanks to one Corey Hogan for showing up as part of the beat up and I think leading it.
Shannon
3:16
was way worse than any
Carter
3:17
any of us. Yeah. I mean, Corey and I aren't speaking right now. It has nothing to do with, you know, the podcast and everything to do with the podcast.
Zain
3:27
you know, I don't speak to Corey either. And I've told him this until he becomes a minister. Don't waste my time. And I think I told him that the live show and we don't talk either. So we're on the same page. I talk
Zain
3:40
Well, I'm a nicer person
Shannon
3:41
person than either of you. Are you
Carter
3:42
lobbying him or something?
Zain
3:43
something? You've got lower standards. Here's what I want to do today. I've got an idea and I'm going to throw it at you. It's not dissimilar to what we've done in the past, but there's a lot going on in Alberta politics. There's a lot going on in Canadian politics. So today I'm going to pitch you, and we'll see how many of these we can get through, a series of things that have happened in our Canadian politics broadly. Some of them might be acute to Alberta. Some of them may not. And I want you, on a purely strategic level, and I'll give you some release valve to talk about how you feel about these things and your sort of analysis in that sense. But on a political strategy angle, I want you to tell me, are you going to take what the person in question did? Is it going to be a take? I'm going to take it at its face value. Am I going to tweak it or
Zain
4:32
or am I going to trash it?
Carter
4:33
Oh, the three Ts. So
Zain
4:35
it's a take at face value. You're going to tweak it or you're going to trash it.
Zain
4:40
great. And we talk about this purely from a political strategy level. And let's start with the story that I think is just interesting. We'll get to the Alberta stories because I know both of you maybe want to talk about notwithstanding and private health care. Let's talk about conservative
Zain
4:54
conservative MP Jamil Javani and his end liberal racism events.
Zain
5:01
So Jamil Javani, for those who don't know, is a conservative member of parliament.
Zain
5:05
He is a former Yale Law School grad, best buds with J.D. Vance, former Bell Media talk show host. He's now kind of taken on the in-house role of the conservative Charlie Kirk mantra, going to university campuses and starting to try to ignite that base that the conservatives believe is there for them already. They kind of believe that these are their people, especially those men. And so his most recent salvo into this conversation is about ending liberal racism as an extension of his university tour. And he had an event earlier this week called the National Forum to End Liberal Racism in Ottawa.
Zain
5:50
50 people showed up.
Zain
5:54
Giovanni's campaign targets what he labels as liberal racism, criticizing DEI policies and suggests they create race-based government decisions. He's also gone on the record to criticize size the liberal government's uh school lunch program carter you
Zain
6:08
you get your feelings aside your feelings i can't you know what the letter i can't do it's the f yeah
Carter
6:13
yeah that's good feelings
Zain
6:18
strategy that giovanni and the conservatives are employing do you want to take it do you want to take uh tweak it or do you want to fully just trash what they're up to with this being the most recent salvo strategic level steven carter let's go? I
Carter
6:32
I think I'm going to trash it. Um, not just because it's, it's, uh, you
Carter
6:36
you know, it's crazy on its face, but, but, but I sometimes feel like what the, what the conservatives do is they look in the mirror and they see themselves and they say, let's accuse them of that. And I think that that's where we are with the racism complaint, right? There's a, there's an inherent, uh, I
Carter
6:53
I don't want to say racism, but there's an inherent bias with the conservatives and they, uh, they
Carter
7:01
they look in the mirror they see it and they say well the other side must be guilty of it too and the same thing happens with when you know when they're talking about fiscal conservatism when they're talking about you know the failings of the liberal government the lack of ethics that all exists on the liberal on the conservative side they look into the mirror they see themselves and then they accuse someone else of that very same thing and that's that's the donald trump mantra i mean if If Donald Trump says anything, chances are he's doing that very thing. So when I think of Donald Trump, when I think of the conservatives movement as it stands currently, it is stand in front of the mirror, find the negative that you see, and then accuse the other side of doing that thing. So that's why I'm going to trash Jamil Javani and his lunacy in this particular case.
Zain
7:51
Shannon, what do you think of this strategy? You know, the Conservatives may make a case that woke is at an all-time low, DEI is at an all-time low, that this is something worthy of pouncing on, that this is something that really speaks to the new generation of young, predominantly white men, perhaps. What are you doing if you're the Conservatives on this strategy? In your case, are you taking this? Are you tweaking this? Are you trashing this?
Shannon
8:16
Well, I'm trashing it and not just because it really is like fingernails on the chalkboard for my values. but i'm looking at what the conservatives need to do here
Shannon
8:24
here right like what they're doing is they're doubling down on the young men's strategy they've seen that they've got young men now you know pretty narrowly in most polling but they've got them uh and so they think there's more there to find to put them over the edge in the places where they need to need to be put over the edge or keep what
Shannon
8:42
what they just won places like london windsor uh
Shannon
8:44
uh at northern ontario stuff like that you know and some other stuff in the 905 um
Shannon
8:50
but i'm trashing this number one i mean 50 people showed up so like
Shannon
8:54
like there's your answer pal uh but also because young men don't vote uh
Shannon
9:01
uh so it's very similar to new democrats going into super low income areas and and and trying to till that soil if they're not going to vote they're not going to vote right
Shannon
9:13
right and you are better off quite frankly like i'm just talking about a straight door knocking uh and trying to like how are you spending your time because i always look at things through that lens and usually that then gives me a key to how i'm looking at polling and other things but
Shannon
9:28
but if you're going into a where they have lost is certainly women over 50 but they've lost men over 55 too the conservatives have why because they they don't uh it's not that they need to like mr poileva they didn't really really like harper like what was right but they trusted him they
Shannon
9:47
they and they they thought of him as capable and that's where the conservatives that's where canadians are more likely to place a conservative vote like
Shannon
9:57
oftentimes when they when they're replacing liberals at least the history of this country they're they're replacing they're they're they're voting conservative because of usually like the liberals have timed themselves out of some sort of corruption self-dealing you know uh or or other like that is the the pattern with those folks that is you know it's kind of their achilles heel they they elect new democrats because they want a threat to the liberals or uh to the conservatives they elect uh conservatives because uh because oftentimes they want to sort of replace uh some of the things that have gone sideways with liberals that's why canadians are motivated to vote for those parties so they need to restore trust uh and not Not necessarily likability, but capability, the
Shannon
10:37
the conservatives do. And screaming about internet things is actually not going to do that for you in the groups of voters that you need, especially not school lunch programs, which like last I checked, when Jason Kenney came to power in 2019, he explicitly kept our school lunch program and expanded it because it's popular, right? Right. So he's doing things that are are wedgie and that are are trying to, like, find this group of voters or, like, create, you know, antagonism or grievance. But, I mean, is this popular?
Shannon
11:09
Right. Like, I go back to, like, what do people like? They don't really like, you know, that kind of antagonism, that kind of instability. You know, they're not interested. And
Shannon
11:21
young people aren't interested because 50 people showed up.
Zain
11:23
Carter, what do you think is going on with politicians these days? I almost feel like they're getting into the pundit space more aggressively. Like it used to be novel, but now it's not novel. Now it's like what they do. Like this transition between politician and pundit has happened so swiftly that even in the online video space, without criticizing one party in particular, a lot of politicians are starting to look like influencers who just go to the polls every
Zain
11:51
every couple of years. And so is this Giovanni transition something you think we're going to see more of from a strategy perspective? And should we see more of it, even if this is not the right play for them? Should we see like one-off MPs having their own initiatives and building a little bit of a kind
Zain
12:10
kind of a fiefdom or a sort of media enterprise around them as a quasi-influencer who also happens happens to have a vote in in parliament in this case i
Carter
12:20
i mean i've talked uh for quite a while i can't remember his name now but he was the uh he
Carter
12:27
he was a congressman from tennessee or something along those lines and he he had this wonderful uh you know tiktok presence and i didn't give a shit about south carolina guy south carolina yeah and he's the he's
Carter
12:39
he's he's moved into the state state hierarchy now i can't remember his role but let's say attorney general or something along those lines uh state treasurer or some stupid thing that i don't understand he had a great um tiktok presence his the way he would
Carter
12:56
would deliver the way he would make you feel about the information and our good friend cory hogan has a great internet presence you know there's there's kind of two tracks that he has he has his very professional ones and he has his little um you know stand up talk to the camera ones both of which i think are extremely effective um you
Carter
13:15
you know they get tons of views and those, uh, those
Carter
13:21
those interrelate, those relationships that are developed through those communication tools, I think have tremendous value. So I
Carter
13:30
think that we will see more of it. Will we see more Jamil Javani style negative type of stuff? Of course we will. of course we will um
Carter
13:39
um it has value and it um you
Carter
13:45
you know it it creates opportunity for the person who's doing the uh the the
Carter
13:55
communication piece if you can find an audience and i do agree with everything that shannon said about the audience if you can find an audience then you're You're nuts not to take advantage of that audience. And if that audience is Charlie Kirk style and you're an elected MP, I mean, they're not going to kick you out because you're doing communications that are effective. They may kick you out because you do communications that are ineffective and ultimately paint the rest of the party poorly.
Carter
14:20
So Jamil Javani needs to worry about that. But
Carter
14:23
I think that the Corey Hogans of the world that are doing their communications for their party with a strong sense of party loyalty and a strong sense of party commitment, I think that that is a really strong thing.
Zain
14:36
That's interesting to me. And Shannon, I'm curious to get your take because the party commitment piece can be questioned on Erskine Smith because
Zain
14:44
because the guy freelances all the time in highly produced videos, probably better than most politicians, if not the central party.
Zain
14:52
But he also kind of sounds like a liberal adjacent, liberal friendly MP who happens to be a liberal. So I'm curious to get your take on this, Shannon. Like, will we see more of this? And maybe the question to you is, should any of the very small federal NDP caucus be thinking about something like this?
Shannon
15:10
Well, this is the part of the Giovanni strategy that I'll take.
Shannon
15:14
Right. Like the substance of it, I think, is like not smart. But I mean, what do I know? I'm not the target audience. uh but he's out there by all accounts you know with uh the blessing of the leader's office he's largely on message it's not like he's uh cross-talking the message like nadir skinsmith sometime it sometimes is and becoming a talking point for the opposition because nadir skinsmith absolutely did last week or whenever it was on the budget um
Shannon
15:41
um and uh what giovanni is doing is he's counting on media fragmentation to be able to quote unquote get away with it right
Shannon
15:47
right so that that he is targeting straight into young people and using that to drive a bit of the cultural zeitgeist so that, you know, other older voters might find it more culturally acceptable. That's what Kirk did. And so, but he's counting on in the first instance that he's talking about those issues that will kind of get some of those young folks up in the morning and
Shannon
16:08
and that boomers won't notice. Women won't notice necessarily, right? Because it's not in their corner of the internet or the the information environment so
Shannon
16:19
so i mean that part is fine right as far as it goes as a strategy on its face uh because it does allow you to you know collect new lists maybe uncover new fundraising opportunities although you know i wouldn't really
Shannon
16:35
be trying to do too too much small dollar even small dollar fundraising after the off the under 30 crowd but again what do i i know uh i'm not in these spaces um but uh you know so they're clearly seeing it as additive the leader's offices right to what polyamory is doing um
Shannon
16:52
and i think the only problem with it is when it starts to subtract from message or detract or or distract uh
Shannon
16:58
uh from the overall message again though it shows you that polyamory is not changing right
Shannon
17:03
right he's not going to get off this like jordan and peterson like wackadoodle nonsense uh he's just gonna double straight down on it he thinks it's fine why because he actually agrees with it that's
Shannon
17:15
that's who he is let
Zain
17:17
let me um let me stick with federal a federal provincial carter before i jump i have actually no shannon should the ndp do something like this i want to i don't want to should the federal ndp because this does get get attention at least it did in giovanni's case and
Zain
17:33
and say what you will i think he's a pretty interesting maybe not fully compelling interesting person in that caucus so it does get him attention should
Zain
17:42
should the ndp with their low numbers and struggling to get attention consider something like this where they send a person off on a tour where they try to really invest in one person's like media vertical in a non-traditional way such as this i'm
Shannon
17:59
i'm really uh like first of all like i'm not sure who because they're in the middle of a leadership race uh number two like where are the resources for this who's the they quote
Shannon
18:08
quote unquote right they you know they're they're down to a a couple of staff to run house business um
Shannon
18:13
um because uh you know the liberals didn't give them uh anything approaching resources so making sure you've got enough people to show up to committee uh it you know has to be the first order priority right and they're they're running a leadership so all other resources are
Shannon
18:28
are going towards that because it's not small to to as we all know uh to pull together the the debates and run the membership and uh just all of the back end of a leadership race right so like who and also who right like who on the front end and who on the back end would be would be doing that's interesting
Shannon
18:44
right i mean like some can do it on their own steam right like i again this is switching over to provincial but janice erwin uh you know has like a couple of cas like the rest of the mlas and she's she's running you know one of the most influential social media presences on the left anyway in the country yeah
Zain
19:03
yeah it's interesting carter like in some ways it's kind of changed the calculation we're not necessarily looking for star candidates we're kind of looking for like i don't know what the term is but like micro micro-influencer candidates in some ways, or even nano-influencer candidates, people who can have reach that can organically grow, not necessarily have big profile and then rely on something that they did, right? It's like they're not relying on what they historically have done to bring them credibility. They're relying on their ability to get constant attention day to day, which is a fundamentally different thing, to continue to build their and their party's credibility and we don't necessarily look for that in in candidate making and in a modern sort we probably should going forward and maybe some aren't doing it more than less but i'm kind of curious to get your final reflections before i move on well
Carter
19:51
well i think we're gonna have to change the vetting process because i think that people who develop audiences and have these audiences that are built in are by definition going to be uh more controversial uh than some of the others right like but
Carter
20:04
upside way more upside i mean like
Zain
20:06
like cory's vet probably took days we know that thanks to our friend yeah i mean yeah i mean
Carter
20:11
mean it was months
Zain
20:12
months in a day's long election
Carter
20:16
didn't get through it they as you know they assumed that he was pretty
Zain
20:19
pretty much gave up at their own
Zain
20:21
we shouldn't tell we shouldn't tell the conservatives that but we'll
Zain
20:23
we'll just skip over that but
Carter
20:25
but the the truth is that the um that
Carter
20:31
that this is a uh this is a new skill ill. You know, communicating on behalf of your leader, communicating on behalf of your party was always part of the game. But now using these non-traditional or now,
Carter
20:43
now, I guess, very traditional methods of social media and video especially. And Janice Irwin's a great example. And you can contrast with Kathleen Ganley, who also does a lot of videos, but doesn't have the same reach and presence right both of them are uh making you know using the medium but neither you know but janice's is nailing it and kathleen tries really hard and i i like kathleen's stuff actually better than janice's but maybe i'm more her target audience well i am one of her constituents i suppose we
Zain
21:18
we both are exactly yeah
Carter
21:20
yeah so this is i i just think that this type of of targeted communication structure is going to become more and more valuable. And I think that parties are going to have to change the vetting process because Lord knows if you've been on social media for a while, you've said something stupid at least once. And we have to be able to get past those moments.
Zain
21:46
So in part, I agree with you, but let me
Zain
21:49
me ask you the question this way, and we haven't gotten past the first question 22 minutes in, but I'm finding this interesting.
Zain
21:56
like shannon if you were the liberal party today would
Zain
22:00
would you take erskine smith in your caucus like if you had a chance to do a do-over and you could make a binary choice like i think he's an interesting case because he's obviously talented he's obviously a great communicator he obviously seems to want to produce his own stuff yeah he's got flirty eyes with other political ambitions maybe even currently um but someone like him would you want him in your caucus or is this kind of the danger of the relaxation that carter is is proposing that that for every janice who's loyal to the party you
Zain
22:35
still get a bit of a freelancy aspect to some of these people because they're loyal to their own audience and themselves rather than a political institution like we we might be entering a new era which i agree with carter on but you know like the question maybe Maybe it's like, is Erskine-Smith perhaps a telltale sign or a cautionary tale? Cautionary.
Shannon
22:54
No, I think so. I mean, but like, I am naturally so much more cautious due to my experience working in the Notley government where we, you know, like we were, we very much learned these lessons in the first 48 hours that there was much more strength in the protection of the group uh uh because we were so uh you know like we were they were trying to disqualify us from day one uh and so i uh i always like as a matter of like it's it's tattooed in my dna now uh to be very cautious even at the live show i'm like oh cory you know um like i'm the one like i am my own own issues manager right um because i don't like it uh uh it it is uh it's an eye poker for me uh i i just don't think that it can lead anywhere productive to be freelancing off your party and your leader uh
Shannon
23:48
uh and second guessing your government's message uh i i just don't think it's helpful when if you're up or you're down or otherwise uh and uh because i don't think it it it is actually the job like your job is to contribute to the whole when
Shannon
24:04
when you're part of a caucus it's not about you i can't stand this uh idea like when people think oh well you know you should just step outside your caucus or you know and they kind of look down on uh towing the party line i actually think that contributing to the group behind closed doors and then going out with a unified message is an element of professionalism it is part of the vocation of politics like Like, if
Shannon
24:25
if you don't like it, go get a different fucking job.
Shannon
24:28
And so, like, I wouldn't take an Erskine-Smith, or I'd slap his wrist behind the scenes, because I don't like it. I don't think it's productive. But that's not what Giovanni's doing, right?
Shannon
24:40
right? No, it isn't. You know, like, not at all.
Zain
24:42
It seems to have probably a blessing. And I guess I could kind of use your opinion on, if you were in a caucus, and the party made a decision to invest resources on a fellow caucus member. Great. Right? Right. How would how would that sit with you? Like, I think it was amazing. You would. Hey, yeah.
Shannon
25:00
you're going out there and you're you're probably communicating in a in a different way than the leader. You have more freedom than the leader. You can be more authentic sometimes and more approachable than the leader. Or you can take on specific topics in a way that's consistent with the party's message, but that the leader doesn't always want to be talking about. right
Shannon
25:18
right uh maybe on certain social justice issues or whatever you you know you want the leader to be broader sometimes than than some specific struggles so it's perfect to have people who can reach uh specific audiences that's that's great more power to them what
Zain
25:34
what would you what would you for every shannon phillips there's probably three other people that are like fucking i can do that job better than jamil javani or whoever the jamil javani stand-in is for your caucus well how do you you kind of like what do you kind of make of that aspect of it because to carter's point and i'll get your take on this too carter like there's always people that you elevate in a caucus this is an interesting opposition sort of element that giovanni is in they're elevating him they're not necessarily investing in elevating others probably some of this is based on his own mojo and his own abilities no doubt but like how do you kind of deal for the rest of the folks who don't necessarily come with that same sort of profile or um when they kind of be like fuck why are you growing his audience for him when that seems to be the modern day metric of success?
Carter
26:19
Well, I think that Jamil Javadi has all but become the deputy leader for the Conservatives. I think that that's why he's given these opportunities. That's why he takes these opportunities. I don't think that he's, you know, I don't think I have
Carter
26:35
have a chance to Google whether or not he's a deputy leader or not, but he feels like a deputy leader to
Zain
26:39
to me. No shadow position either. Yeah,
Carter
26:41
Yeah, he just feels like someone, though, that is super close to Polyev. And the reason he feels super close to Polyev is because he talks about these things and doesn't get his knuckles wrapped.
Carter
26:52
I would think that this would have gotten your knuckles wrapped in most caucuses, even just hosting the event. But instead, I think that Pierre Polyev will embrace this because he embraces the idea of being
Carter
27:08
being combative. And that's, you know, the most combative person in the conservative caucus, I would argue, is Giovanni.
Zain
27:17
Any final thoughts here before I move on to my next one?
Shannon
27:21
not really. I just, there's parts of this strategy for Giovanni that I would take, some that I would tweak and some that I would trash.
Zain
27:29
karni and smith carter
Zain
27:31
carter i'll start with you are moving closer to reaching a deal on the future of alberta's energy sector according to senior government officials and it's likely to include some language about a path forward on the northwest bc oil pipeline and potentially relaxing the tanker ban stephen
Zain
27:48
stephen carter from a federal government perspective are
Zain
27:52
are you taking in this strategy if
Zain
27:55
if it was given to you are you tweaking it or are you saying folks trash it right away uh this is not worth the pain what are you doing steven carter as you're assessing this from fed government perspective your feelings aside strategy and politics aside
Carter
28:11
aside this is tricky for me because apparently i'm i'm a closet environmentalist um and i i i believe very very strongly in curtailing,
Carter
28:20
curtailing, you know, in getting us off of fossil fuels.
Carter
28:28
So, you know, from that point of view, I would probably start trashing this in some fashion. But the zeitgeist has shifted. We are now
Carter
28:37
now talking about, you know, Canadian oil being there and using Canadian oil and gas in ways that we weren't considering a few, you know, a decade ago. and I guess
Carter
28:49
guess from that point of view the only thing that I would tweak is making Alberta carry
Carter
28:55
carry much of the load on this I would probably make sure that it's very clear that Alberta has decided that they want to take an ownership position and an ownership stake in the next pipeline by the actions that they have taken and that the federal government will stand by and wait for the government of Alberta to tell them what
Carter
29:15
what they want to do and how they want to do it in terms of actually getting a pipeline through British Columbia. I don't think that we need to see the federal government do what they did with Trans Mountain and jump in and become the owner-operator-builder of the pipeline when we've clearly got Alberta standing there wanting to take the reins on this particular project. project.
Zain
29:41
Shannon, this is not a deal struck just yet. This is leaks from government sources. We also know a couple of other things that EV has aggressively, is that a good word? Strenuously opposed a pipeline. And we're also hearing to my earlier point that there
Zain
29:59
there might be slight exemptions made, limited exemptions as it's been told in the media reports on the tanker ban and and potentially using C-5, the legislation, to do so.
Zain
30:13
From the Fed's perspective, are you taking this wholesale? Yep, good, next. Are you tweaking this? Are you trashing this as a strategic political move by our federal government?
Shannon
30:24
think it depends on whether it's kind of a memorandum of understanding to have a task force to maybe have a meeting for a committee, or if it's actually we're putting money behind this and here are the conditions that we're putting money behind it for uh here's the equity stake and here are the uh specific conditions for how we're relaxing uh the uh tanker traffic ban um i think they're two different things but in the main i think these guys are flying way too close to the sun with their 20 liberal mps like leaving aside all other you know driving
Shannon
30:57
driving ourselves into a a fucking intellectual cul-de-sac for the 87 millionth time uh on pipeline politics like leaving that aside for a moment you have 20 new liberal mps the majority of whom won because the ndp vote collapsed in
Shannon
31:13
in british columbia and in fact that i it's those mps and quebec uh where they had their their most growth um
Shannon
31:22
um and uh so i'm not really sure what exactly we're doing here from electoral calculation standpoint like it
Shannon
31:31
is it is dangerous i uh they may touch the hot stove and
Shannon
31:36
and the reason you know it's dangerous in british columbia is because john rusted has been so quiet about it sometimes you know um i'm a new democrat so we didn't always have polling for things and oftentimes you'd have to go with your gut one of the best ways to get your own polling was to would be to listen very carefully to what the other side is doing because they do have money for polling and then you can kind of deduce from there what they are hearing and
Shannon
32:00
rusted has like he said oh yes we need to have more investment in bc and the ndp is bad because we don't have more investment which is of course kind of a bullshit argument because six of the 12 new major projects are are in british columbia that have been named by the feds but
Shannon
32:16
if you listen carefully he hasn't said repeal the tanker ban at all he
Shannon
32:20
he hasn't been clear on that at all uh
Shannon
32:22
uh and And that tells me, well, and we know this, we know this from Christy Clark back in the day, imposing her five conditions on Northern Gateway, who, you know, newsflash, she was not exactly an Elizabeth May Green Party cardholder, but she represented a center to the quite right coalition where
Shannon
32:42
where they didn't go there on tanker ban either, right?
Shannon
32:45
right? So I think there's a fundamental misread from the Liberal Party of Canada on what they can get away with in British Columbia, because I think what they're doing is they're probably looking at polling that says, yay, we want more resource development, which
Shannon
33:01
which is true. As soon as you put it in the context of a particular project, you're
Shannon
33:08
you're going to go back to the old battles. and yeah it's true that maybe david eby doesn't you know necessarily at
Shannon
33:16
at the end of the day hold the pen on the saying no but i tell you who does the coastal first nations like
Shannon
33:24
you want to fuck with that carney like this is what it kind of seems like when
Zain
33:27
when all the other things kind of settle it
Zain
33:31
it seems like it might be the same thing carney really couldn't solve over the summer summer, which
Zain
33:36
which is the indigenous groups versus the federal government.
Zain
33:41
Like, I could see resolutions and deals and side deals and alleviation for everything else, but it comes down to that. And I think that's what the use of C-5 against that, I think, becomes a core strategy point
Zain
33:54
for me to potentially assess. Carter, any thoughts? Shannon, I'll let you even argue with my interpretation of where we might end up. But Carter, you wanted to get in. I
Carter
34:02
I mean, I just think that, you know, using it against an interest like the Coastal First Nations isn't going to work. You know, you still have the constitutional duty to consult.
Carter
34:15
that constitutional responsibility is not going anywhere. Even if you write yourself into a piece of legislation.
Carter
34:24
You know, I think Elizabeth May was the one who was saying this is just not going to happen. We're not going to see tankers on the coast. We're not going to see a northern pipeline for heavy oil. I think that that's, you know, and I don't usually take Elizabeth May's word on things, but I think that she's got a very strong read of the coastal First Nations and the combativeness of those First Nations. I mean, I can't remember what the stats were on Northern Gateway.
Carter
34:53
80% or 75% of the First Nations along the route were in favor of Northern Gateway until you got to the end.
Carter
35:00
right? And the problem
Carter
35:02
with 75% of a pipeline being in favor is that the end matters. You can't stop a pipeline in the middle. You have to get to the part. And I think that Carney is going to be very smart insofar as, you know, placating Danielle Smith. But I wouldn't be surprised if this relationship was very Alberta-centric insofar as Alberta needs to do a lot of work if alberta wants to see something we'll
Carter
35:32
we'll support you because
Carter
35:33
because i think that i think that where i differ from shannon is that carney's not looking at this from electoral politics he's looking at this from economic politics the idea is that you know most governments can't sustain themselves in a recession if
Carter
35:48
if you have if we continue towards a national recession which i think it feels like we're heading if it hasn't been declared already it is somewhere where we're heading, then we will be heading, you know, we have to have economic stimulus, we have to have economic opportunity to try and lift this out. And I think that Carney's primary focus is economy first, build it out, and then environment second, because ultimately, even the people of British Columbia are going to be more inclined to support a federal party that's overseeing economic growth rather than economic production well
Shannon
36:24
well that's what the interesting thing is uh in terms of the coastal first nations perspective because
Shannon
36:28
because they are actually trading one form of economic activity for another because the taker ban actually i i mean it helps them be able to like quite literally manage the growth in the area for the lng the other port infrastructure the electrification that is going to be uh happening and their interest in in
Shannon
36:49
in some critical minerals projects It's not like this is an anti-growth. It is actually those boats are not compatible with this geography, with all the other stuff that is going on. They have made a trade-off. They've made a trade-off in favor of the $56 billion worth of projects that have been approved through the Major Projects Office or sent through the Major Projects Office in
Shannon
37:14
in the province of British Columbia, a lot of which are concentrated in northwest British Columbia. uh
Shannon
37:20
uh and so those are real benefits as well right and and and the on the other side you have a fake pipeline uh
Shannon
37:26
uh and so you know 56 billion or something that makes daniel smith and like weird people at the ranchments feel good like it doesn't it doesn't add up uh and so i think what will be interesting is you know because carney considers himself a deal maker like he actually is you know trump likes to go around saying he makes deals and meanwhile you know You know, Carney is the guy doing it.
Shannon
37:50
It will be interesting to me what
Shannon
37:52
what kind of deal they cut with the coastal First Nations, if anything. If they actually move forward with this, then they will have to have one.
Shannon
37:59
That's the contents of a memorandum of understanding that I would find interesting. All right. You know, whatever
Shannon
38:05
whatever they do with Alberta, like, who kind of cares?
Zain
38:09
Could this be a situation, Carter, where, actually,
Zain
38:12
actually, before I get there, would you advise Carney to still stay on, as you called it, economic versus electoral politics? Would you say, buddy, be aware of the latter, not so much the former?
Carter
38:25
Well, right now, I think that the zeitgeist has shifted tremendously. I think that we are in an era of economic politics, not an era of of environmental politics. But how
Zain
38:37
how about electoral as we talk about? I'm
Carter
38:40
I'm not too worried about it. I'm far more interested in economic
Carter
38:43
politics. I think that for the most part, people are concerned about their pocket. I mean, people remain selfish. So Shannon's made a good point. The 20 MPs that come from the New Democrat collapse, I don't think the New Democrats pick up the green movement because I don't think the green movement is anywhere near what it used to be,
Carter
39:08
as evidenced by the Green Party collapsing, as evidenced by the NDP collapsing.
Zain
39:13
Let me move it on to my final one, because I want to try to shove this in before we got to kind of call it quits, Stephen Carter. And Shannon, let me start with you on this. And this one I have to impress that I need to put everyone's feelings aside. But I'm just going to frame it this way.
Zain
39:31
the shit that danielle smith is doing the
Zain
39:35
the bucket of it the
Zain
39:37
the notwithstanding clause on teachers counted and talked about the notwithstanding clause on trans kids and and uh the three bills on trans legislation the first floating and then seven minute video explanation of upcoming coming legislation on letting doctors work both privately and publicly simultaneously. The negotiations with Carney on Pipeline, the session is not done yet. There could be much more. I'm just highlighting a couple of things, and I'm sure I missed a half a dozen.
Zain
40:11
That would be big things, but they almost seem to be small. And maybe that's inherently the question here, which is from a strategic level of what Smith is doing.
Zain
40:23
You're tweaking it or you're trashing it. And I know it's hard to ask a former NDP cabinet minister this from a strategic level. So I'll let you event as you need to because we want to talk about the substance of these and we don't have to do it all today. But I'm really curious in terms of as we assess this political moment, Shannon, we also have seen this political strategy playbook before played elsewhere. Smith is not doing something entirely novel, but she seems to be doing it at a pace that has worked in other places. So with that in mind, and not trying to put my finger on the scale,
Zain
40:56
take, tweak, or trash?
Shannon
40:59
I think the substance of these big pieces is pretty antithetical to what she ran on and what she won on. And so these moves of the last couple of weeks, I think, prove that potentially I was very wrong. um in that i i thought potentially we were going into an election in spring of 26 but i don't see how you do such large things uh uh and and glide into you know a bigger majority or or like and so i i i think that i may have been wrong on that and she is going to go uh the full term to 27
Shannon
41:37
if she wants to go in spring of 26 i'd trash this uh and uh and i would go back to what i was elected on which is uh you know grow the economy like we have the either highest or second highest unemployment in the country uh there's a number of other economic indicators that are a little wobbly um and so i would be looking at like what else am i getting through to the major project office why do i have literally fucking bupkis i
Shannon
42:04
i i on that list when i'm supposed to be you know the big economic engine of the the country right and and david eby a new democrat next door is eating my lunch on that on major projects like the only idea i have is a fake pipeline um
Shannon
42:18
um like at some point uh
Shannon
42:19
uh albertans are going to go back to we we you know we think we elect conservatives to run a uh the economy and to you
Shannon
42:27
you know at least not make health care and education poke me in the eye uh as issues she's
Shannon
42:31
she's not doing either of those things and
Shannon
42:33
and so um i would i would trash this big stuff and go back to uh more of this the small ball of economic management and the reason why why people send conservatives to the legislature.
Zain
42:44
Carter, your take. Take, tweak, or trash?
Carter
42:47
Well, I mean, she's also throwing out some of that small ball, right? Like, I wonder how many people are talking about 120 kilometers on the divided highways instead of talking about, you know, the private versus public health care. I mean, allowing doctors to participate in both, this is the furthest that anybody has stepped into private health care. Ever
Zain
43:08
Ever in this country. It is
Carter
43:09
is massive, massive step and very much contrary to the Canada Health Act. I'm dying to see how we get past this one. But regardless, she's throwing it out there and she's she's trying to cover it up with things that are still populist. You know, the transportation minister was astounded that 77 percent of Albertans supported his little idea of going really fast on the QE2. Has he ever been on the QE2? They're already doing 130 kilometers an hour up and down
Carter
43:43
the QE2. This is a complete joke. But, you know, I think that Shannon's point is 100%. I mean, we haven't even talked about some of the nurses and health care workers talking about a Saturday strike this weekend. Yes,
Zain
44:00
Yes, AOP, I haven't even
Carter
44:02
even mentioned it. I mean, you can't you can't be fighting all the fronts at all the times, but she's trying to fight all the fronts at all the times. And I think that at some point she's going to hit a nerve and it's going to come smashing back at her. So the idea of a spring election, I do think is off the table. I think she's going to go and do as much as possible in the next. I mean, obviously, she's doing as much as possible before Christmas and into the year and we'll clean that up in the new year. and then at the end of uh 2026 in the fall that looks it looks and feels like that's when we'll see the election yeah that's when she'll
Shannon
44:37
she'll start cutting us checks for some right
Zain
44:40
right right your dividend from the savings of the public private uh simultaneous work but you know but carter
Zain
44:48
not hearing fully trashing from you though right
Zain
44:50
right like you are both
Zain
44:53
both of you i don't think are agreeing with the contents, but are you agreeing with the speed of the play? Are you agreeing with any aspects here? I know you're saying she could eventually hit a nerve.
Zain
45:03
I just want to try to get some clarity from you. I
Carter
45:05
I think that, frankly, most politicians now are being advised and wisely advised to do much fast, to do as much as possible as fast as possible, much fast. That seems to be the winning formula, not to do slow. I mean, Carney's doing much faster. It's going very, very well for him. Trump is doing much faster. We could argue about his overall popularity reaching the lowest point that it has so far in the second term. But still, he's getting away with murder, almost literally. So when you do a lot and you do a lot fast, people miss the details. And I'm not sure how many people even really picked up on this private versus public health care that aren't listening to our podcast.
Shannon
45:57
mean, it was a central plank of the Ralph Klein's third way and was allowing doctors to practice in both systems. And, you know, it was ultimately they walked back on it and didn't look at it again for quite literally 20 years because it was 2005. And why? Because there were regional health authorities at the time and rural PCMLA's who bucked on him. She has neither thing.
Shannon
46:19
So, you know, they just waited for 20 years. And now the big money, you know, health care insurance interest in they come into the system. The interesting thing will be whether the federal government actually
Shannon
46:31
actually steps in to enforce the Canada Health Act, which, again, I mean, she may want that. If she doesn't have a fight on natural resources, she may want one in 2026 on other things with the Liberals. I don't know.
Zain
46:47
Let me pick up on that because I want to ask you a final question here, which is very much related. Carter Nye Nenshi, his response summarized as, Danielle Smith, if you're going to do this, dissolve the legislature, call an election on the question of privatization in our Alberta health care system. system.
Zain
47:08
You're taking that, you're tweaking that, or you're trashing that based on everything we've just talked about in the most recent comments from Shannon here. I'm
Carter
47:15
You know, I think that that's the right play. I think that private
Carter
47:19
private versus public healthcare is still really different. You know, privatization of our healthcare system is still a gigantic problem. Now, I would say that for the most part, it's a red herring is most, most, most.
Shannon
47:32
Oh, you're going to to go there this
Carter
47:35
anyway most doctor's offices continue to be privatized they're private
Shannon
47:39
private bill to one system it's it's a single payer uh which is what the change is that she is going to make where you have more than one payer you can pay privately or but the point is it is a health care insurance plan medicare is it is not uh you're not government doctors so
Shannon
47:57
so this is a
Shannon
47:58
totally red herring argument
Shannon
47:59
doctors i think that
Carter
48:00
we should be doing
Shannon
48:02
we should be doing more
Shannon
48:03
that's fine especially that's fine there's still one insurance plan that is billed to carter don't
Carter
48:10
don't start with me oh
Shannon
48:12
oh don't start with me these just absolute canards
Carter
48:16
on fucking health care is just it's just a bad look for you frankly keep
Zain
48:23
keep going you like you like You're taking what Nenshi's saying. Shannon, I'll ask you. It's still
Zain
48:30
Are you taking, are you tweaking, are you trashing, Shannon, in terms of Nenshi's dissolve the legislature? And I guess the forward-looking question is, is this a rich vein to keep mining? Is this your new thing? Can you now turn this back into corrupt care? Do you drop notwithstanding, like I'm trying to like triangulate all the shit from their perspective. Give me a sense of like, now that this is on the table, are you back to your sweet spot historically Historically, on health care, bringing corrupt care back in, privatization back in, dissolve the legislature, call an election on this question. Take, tweak, or trash on the initial question and then some ideas going forward.
Shannon
49:03
Oh, I'm taking it because, I mean, health care is always part of the ballot question if you're a new Democrat with their name on a lawn sign.
Shannon
49:11
And it is, you know, at least number one or within the top three, economy, affordability, being the other ones, usually in the issue set in salience for voters. uh and who do they trust on health care they trust us uh and you know you can go back to just the old ads and run them again um because quite literally she is saying you know get out your credit card um so this is a great place for the new democrats to be it was going to be even if she didn't do this uh you know you done fucked up the health care system and now you need to uh you know elect us and we'll fix it that's i mean it's always the offer in some way shape or form from a new democrat um
Shannon
49:47
um but number two i mean really what you've got are two issues with daniel i think the number one is health care and then number two is like can we trust you are you self-interested uh or are you looking out for people and that's where you put the bucket of literally everything else right
Shannon
50:03
right from notwithstanding this and that and uh uh you know all the other you know kind of like vaguely corrupt things that they've done and uh flying off to saudi arabia and every other uh issue right like you don't care about me that's why you're worried about license plates you don't care about uh me that's why you're giving contracts to your friends you don't care about me that's why you want to um you know before you said you weren't going to privatize you did it um
Shannon
50:31
um now then you said you didn't want to touch my pension i don't trust you because you you don't care about me carter
Zain
50:38
carter final thoughts here as we wrap up this episode So does this now become the NDP go-forward strategy? Does everything triangulate to this? Even if there's other distractions and noise, healthcare is your turf. She may have inadvertently escalated the issue right to the top. She may have tied it nicely into affordability.
Zain
50:59
Are you putting all your eggs in this basket? How are you thinking about it, Carter, as we wrap up?
Carter
51:04
I wouldn't put all my eggs in it. I think that health care, education, and social services are what people elect provincial governments to do. So I'm still going to keep my education. I'm still going to keep banging on the teachers being forced back to work. I'm still going to keep banging on the notwithstanding clause. But I have lots of time for this one. This is a big, big opportunity, and it needs to be taken care of. And that's why I was taking Nahed Nenshi saying it's time to call an election.
Zain
51:34
We're going to leave it there. There, that's a wrap. Yeah, I can't even do it. I
Zain
51:39
It's fine. I'm never going to the dentist again. You know, they told me it was a routine visit. I got four needles in my mouth, Carter. Four needles. That's
Carter
51:48
That's not routine, brother.
Zain
51:50
Something called a post. I have a post. You have a post now?
Carter
51:53
now? That's not good. That's not
Carter
51:55
That's not a good thing. It's a different
Zain
51:56
different story. That's a wrap on episode 1895 of The Strategist. My name is Zane Velich. You have with me, as always, Shannon Phillips, Stephen Carter, and we shall see you next time.