Transcript
Zain
0:03
This is a strategist episode 1891. My name is Zain Velji. With me as always, Shannon Phillips and two-time Reed Award winner Stephen Carter.
Carter
0:12
You can see them in the background.
Zain
0:14
You know how many I have?
Zain
0:15
Five. You're a liar.
Zain
0:17
Come to my house. I have five.
Carter
0:19
You have five Reed Awards? I do.
Zain
0:21
do. I do. I don't like to brag, but I just saw it off your shoulder and I thought I'd let you know. I've got three more. I think after 10, I can trade one for a daytime Emmy. I
Carter
0:29
think so. I think so. I mean, right now, we should put ours together. And maybe we
Zain
0:33
we can get a daytime Emmy. Shannon, you know what a Reed Award is? It's a pay-to-play political campaign award, where if you pay a fee, more than likely you're a finalist, and one in three chance you're going to win the award.
Carter
0:42
In fact, you're probably going to win the award if
Carter
0:46
you put the money in.
Carter
0:48
But you know what? Like all things, they cost money.
Carter
0:52
it's America. You know what else costs money, Zane?
Carter
0:55
This show. This show costs money. It's good.
Carter
0:57
So that's why our patrons have been fantastic. I love our patrons, except when it comes to the live show. You
Zain
1:05
You know what they'd rather do is they'd twiddle their dicks on Discord.
Carter
1:10
convinced they're not actually even on Discord. I think the group of people on Discord aren't even patrons. I've been going through the lists. I've had some extra time on my hands. Are you going to
Carter
1:21
to ice purge people?
Carter
1:22
I've gone through the lists. Ice
Carter
1:24
level purge? Ice level purge these guys. unless unless they buy more tickets to the live show my thinking is if i'm busy on the live show can't do an ice level purge right can't
Carter
1:38
purge everybody on the discord so our
Carter
1:41
our patrons need to step it up buy more tickets especially the vip tickets because that's where we're making some money buy more or buy any tickets buy
Carter
1:49
buy any really i mean there was a there was a moment where we sold a lot of tickets at the beginning and then Corey is saying it's because he's not going to be there but I have it on high authority that he's been invited The
Zain
2:04
show is next Wednesday let's get some of the details this is what Shannon is good at she's the details person she also doesn't like my description of our patrons extracurricular activities but that's a different point No I do not. It's next Wednesday November 12th Knox United Church 730 Shannon you had a great nickname for Mr. Scaldi here well
Shannon
2:21
well i mean carter
Shannon
2:22
carter is rightfully scolding
Shannon
2:24
scolding rightfully scolding our itinerant patreon subscribers who have not yet bought tickets those of you who have bought tickets we will uh uphold your honor for the rest of time or at least the next live show uh but those of you who have not
Shannon
2:41
come on and so i was calling i was saying to carter you know uh it's time for scoldy it's It's time for Scoldy Hawn to come out and start yelling at people. I mean, really, Patreon subscribers. Like, we do appreciate that you are not the itinerant losers that the people who don't subscribe to this show clearly are.
Shannon
3:03
But there's one more step we've got to take here. And that is to come to the live show. Exactly. On Wednesday, November
Shannon
3:11
at 6.30 for the VIP, which we would prefer. Oh, 6.30 for
Zain
3:14
for the VIP. That's true. We would prefer that. 7.30
Shannon
3:16
.30 for the main show. But we know that the Patreon people are probably not going to settle for
Shannon
3:23
for the 7.30 Normie show. They're going to want to come and actually talk to us at 6.30 and participate in the full funeral experience for the Calgary Party.
Zain
3:33
Oh, I forgot about that. Yes, it's a full funeral experience. And the B side of the show is where I read every single Patreon subscriber's name.
Carter
3:42
And their workplace. Yeah,
Zain
3:44
B side of the show is where we dox the Patriots. We have so much other info. We might as well do a church-style reading of their information. Phone
Zain
3:55
all of it. It'll be like Stephen Carter, phone number, email, address, and then we say thank you at the end. So that's kind of the format to expect. If you are a Patreon subscriber, we will dox you and thank you as the B part of the show on Wednesday night. Carter, anything to add before we get to real shit?
Carter
4:13
Just that the VIP is catered and we have paid for
Zain
4:16
for the full catering. Why is it catered? Why have we... We don't even know the numbers and we paid for full catering. I haven't even talked to you about the economics of the pod, the live show, which could be its own podcast. Do you want to explain this to me for half a second? There's
Carter
4:26
There's not much in the way of economics. What he did in this particular case...
Shannon
4:32
Carter is like Trudeau. He doesn't spend his time thinking about monetary policy. He takes
Shannon
4:37
takes care of itself.
Zain
4:38
monetary things. Let's talk about things Carter's spending. So here's
Carter
4:42
here's what I did.
Carter
4:44
I went through with Annalise. We went through the venue, and we came up with all the different things we could do.
Carter
4:49
And I just paid for them.
Carter
4:51
So everything is paid for. No, that's okay.
Shannon
4:55
Sounds like the Tim Carmel campaign really kind of summed up.
Zain
5:04
We should just end it there.
Carter
5:05
there. That's perfect. That was hurtful. Can
Carter
5:09
we do a show now? Can
Zain
5:10
Can we just do a show? what's the show the
Zain
5:13
whole show i attended the show and
Zain
5:15
and it was glorious fan
Zain
5:17
fan fucking tastic uh speaking of fan fucking tastic this is actually good in the way of transition material fine fabulous or fucked it is a oldie but a goodie and for the patrons they love this format as it relates to being able to dissect shit that has gone on there's a few things of note we'll see how many weight make through through the list i want to i want to mainly talk budget and floor or crossers. So Stephen Carter, let me start here. I'll let you guys go wherever you really want on this and we'll take the conversation. We'll kind of like move it on as it dries up. Find Fabulous or Fuck the budget for the liberals. As the last 48 hours have gone, you and I have talked historically on this podcast and in other places that the budget is a communications exercise. Find Fabulous or Fuck for the liberals, 48 hours into their budget.
Carter
6:03
I think it's fine. I think that people are, you know, not blown away by it. I think that That people are saying, you know, this is different than what we were expecting. But I don't think that we're seeing a massive uptick of anger. I don't think, you know, the $78 billion deficit. Corey and I have talked ad nauseum about how people don't care about deficit. They like to pretend that they care about deficits, but they really don't. As long as they're getting their stuff, they're happy. And right now, they're going to get more stuff. There's stuff coming down the pipe. And I like the shift from operating the capital. I think that that is a strong maneuver by Carney and Champagne. And I think that overall, people are going to be very happy with this budget. Even the opposition parties don't seem to want to make it go away. They just want to do the regular level of rabble-rousing without any real significance. I think it's an absolutely fine document.
Zain
7:01
Shannon, do you agree on the fine, fabulous or fucked scale of this budget for the Liberals?
Shannon
7:07
Well, I think it's fine from a macroeconomic perspective because it's a macroeconomic document. It was written by a macroeconomist and it shows. But politics happens in the micro. So it's fine asterisk. Right. It is. If you and even if you're a leftist and you are looking for good, solid industrial policy, you will find it in this document. document if
Shannon
7:28
if you are looking for leaving social policy kind of where it was at there's going to be some some reductions in grants and contributions for a number of organizations fine whatever right well not fine whatever but there there will be politics to be done but
Zain
7:39
but that is not gone for example but
Shannon
7:41
but no none of the transfers to to provinces or individuals have been touched uh and so therefore most of the things that that that affect me most that is to say the things that land in my bank account once a month uh those things are still there now
Shannon
7:55
now uh there is lots of depending on what happens with uh the public sector um uh
Shannon
8:02
uh employment losses you
Shannon
8:05
you might see some reductions in services certainly the new democrats and the uh public service alliance are going to uh claim that i'm going to take them at their word on that but right now the micro is is that I have status quo on all of my transfer programs. And I, you know, despite the fact that the government has not taken a victory lap on it, I'm getting a two income family, I'm going to get an $800 a year tax cut, which
Shannon
8:27
which is not I mean, it's a huge fiscal lift for the for these guys. But
Shannon
8:33
But other than that, I'm seeing status quo in my micro, which is kind of the problem, right? If everything goes to shit in the economy, there's
Shannon
8:42
there's nothing really in this document as contingency, I think you're going to see Carney kind of govern sort of off the side of his desk if there is like a really big economic crisis, because he can, right? But we're not seeing a lot of the signals on, you know, EI reform and those kinds of things. But what you are seeing is sectoral supports to the economy. You are seeing, you know, obviously a major focus on infrastructure, defense, things that put people to work. You've seen language in there around unionized labor. So if you're a building trades member today or yesterday, you're pretty happy with this document because the first time the government of Canada has really embedded that beyond some of the boutique ways that Christopher Freeland tried to. So that's really good. But there's huge planks
Shannon
9:36
planks of this that they've just left in
Shannon
9:40
in their voting coalition. A lot of progressives stampeded to vote for them. At least two of them are probably on this podcast, and yet they're jettisoning some of those progressive bona fides that A, got them elected, and B, are
Shannon
9:57
are part of their internal coalition
Shannon
9:59
of their caucus, right? So there's no language in here around their conservation commitments that they made a big deal of in their platform of 30% conservation by 30. They've dumped a lot of the way they frame Indigenous issues in the document, even though they kept a lot of the women and gender equality money in place, or at least some of it. You know, they're certainly, you know, not talking about it. And I don't think you're going to see a lot of knock on announcements. So
Shannon
10:28
there's weaknesses there. And we'll see that will be subject to politics. But macroeconomic wise, you can tell we've got an economist in charge. and you can also tell that there are big
Shannon
10:43
big contingencies for supporting
Shannon
10:45
supporting the economy in a sectoral way. Steel, aluminum, auto, forestry.
Zain
10:51
Carter, how do you want to deal with this? We've received some weird breaking news. Breaking
Carter
10:56
news during the podcast.
Zain
10:58
Like, this is almost like I feel like Cronkite. I feel like Cronkite level. This is not Cronkite level of breaking news. It's weird, though. It's weird, right? Well,
Carter
11:08
it is and it isn't weird.
Zain
11:09
No, it's not weird.
Zain
11:12
know what that says. So, okay, I'll let you – Matt Gennaro, who was rumored to cross – we want to get into floor crossing. That was the budget. We'll get back to the budget if we need to. We're already 12 minutes deep, so that's fine. I guess six of that was promo. I wanted to go five fabulous or fucked on floor crossings, but let me actually ask this question. Matt Gennaro, the conservative MP of Edmonton Riverbend, who was long rumored historically as one of those folks in the broader conservative movement that just doesn't belong there. This guy, you know, Pierre Palliev was not his cup of tea. Peter McKay was the guy he supported when O'Toole ran. He's been a long time. He was prior to this, he was a progressive conservative MLA in Alberta. To the three of us, and to many listeners, probably well known, or known as a guy that has been around Alberta politics for a while. He's chosen, however, after saying yesterday that he was not going to cross the floor, to today, Shannon and Stephen, resign. He's
Zain
12:12
He's outright said that he is resigning as a member of Parliament.
Zain
12:15
So I guess I'll phrase the question this way to keep the theme alive, Stephen Carter. Let me start with you. Fine, Fabulous, or Fucked for the Conservatives that Matt Gennaro is not crossed the floor but said goodbye. And then also just bake in why you think this is happening. Shannon is celebrating. She thinks this is interesting. If I could drink, I would
Shannon
12:35
would be like popping the champagne right now. You
Zain
12:38
You can drink. Corey Hogan does permit it on the show. No, I can't, though.
Zain
12:43
Oh, okay. I thought you were going to say you joined Islam, which, by the way, is an open offer to anyone listening. Right. I just have to say it three times,
Shannon
12:48
times, right? Yeah, that's true.
Zain
12:51
I mean, we produced a Zoran. Carter, fine, fabulous, or fucked for the Conservatives that Matt Gennaro is walking away?
Carter
12:58
Fucked for the Conservatives. I mean, this is quite a blow, another blow to Pierre Paulietta's leadership.
Carter
13:06
Right off the bat, I mean, what we'd heard was that Matt Gennaro was targeted by some rather dirty tricks
Carter
13:15
tricks to get him to stay in caucus and to not cross over. and those dirty tricks were essentially if you cross we will tell yeah and he said okay i'll see her if i cross we will tell and i'll fuck you back by leaving because i don't need this type of shit in my life and matt genero is still a young man he's got lots of opportunities in front of him and he's going to leave the house of commons i think with his head held high um i
Carter
13:44
i think that This is absolutely fucked for Pierre Poliev and the Conservatives. I think they're in real, real trouble.
Zain
13:51
Shannon, fine, fabulous, or fucked for the Conservatives? Oh,
Shannon
13:53
Oh, this is so fucked, and here's why. So now there's only one more that is needed, unless, you know, Elizabeth May, well, whatever, she'll do whatever she does. So you have effectively a majority now. And Riverbend, that riding, was actually the closest margin for
Shannon
14:13
for the Liberals. it wasn't Sohi's seat whatever it was called I don't remember the
Zain
14:17
the seat names it was Sohi's like more south and more east than this yeah
Shannon
14:21
yeah yeah exactly this is way more in the kind of you know
Zain
14:25
well for the Alberta listeners maybe it was Tim Carmel's whole seat I
Zain
14:28
don't know it is no no it is it is this overlaps with Carmel's municipal seat this is Racky Pancholi's NDP's seat prior to that it was Dave Hancock's right seat so this is a red Tory place yeah it's a James Rajoy it's James Rajoy yeah
Zain
14:41
exactly it's the same same geographic area who was
Shannon
14:45
was not a moderate just making queer i went to university with that guy anyway um but uh no this is i mean what i read on this is because i had heard i mean i'm just telling ottawa gossip now but whatever that's what the people pay for uh a couple of days well day before yesterday on budget day that you know essentially jenny burn showed up you know in her uh cruella deville uh car uh with her dalmatian coat on and started threatening people right that's
Zain
15:14
that's an insult to glenn close slash meryl streep it really is um
Shannon
15:17
um yeah but uh but but so that is what i had heard i don't know if she physically showed up in her relative ill car um
Shannon
15:24
um but that she came in to you know like grab some people by the lapels uh
Shannon
15:27
uh and essentially you know uh the people who were sounding wobbly um
Shannon
15:33
um we have also heard of you know like that there was there was some stuff on january um and so uh maybe he just didn't like the idea of being threatened and uh you know he
Shannon
15:46
he can go do something else for a living he doesn't need this garbage and he probably doesn't
Shannon
15:50
um so uh okay why is this fucked for the conservatives couple of reasons if you have have a de facto essentially you have a de facto majority now right for uh carney so we've just gone from a election all the idiots like fred delori i'm sorry whatever it's true uh you know just doing clickbait um like inevitable
Shannon
16:11
yeah yeah it's just fucking
Shannon
16:12
fucking stupid whatever um
Shannon
16:13
um but uh yeah all of a sudden we've gone to that to potentially three and a half years run uh With one resignation, if he can get, you know, one more to like, you know, abstain, die,
Shannon
16:26
die, whatever, like it's a big house. But he's gone to that place, Carney has. Do you actually think that the conservatives are going to hold on to a guy for three and a half years? They change these guys out on the regular, right? Right. And I think that Polyavra
Shannon
16:47
Polyavra is now in quite serious trouble. And it's also like, I
Shannon
16:52
I have a whole rant on this, maybe we'll get to it. But like, hello,
Shannon
16:58
what happens when you don't write a blank fucking check to the liberals for four fucking years? is
Shannon
17:06
that all of a sudden there's pressure on the Conservatives because that is what a minority parliament does to people. It makes for better politicians. Pierre Pallieva never had any of this kind of challenge coming to him for the last four years. They never had any of this pressure on their caucus. Nothing. Because the NDP allowed them to not have it. And so not only did everybody's house leaders have to do less work, But also caucus and leader had to do less work to keep each respective team together, in particular for the conservatives. So Pierre Polyevra's shitty tactics and his way of, you know, letting Jenny just bang on people and, you know, rig nominations and all the rest of the horse shittery that they got away with for the last four years being dicks to people because that's their modus operandi is being straight dicks all the time. they got away with it because the ndp let them the minute that don davies was like oh maybe i won't vote for it look at this two of them boom gone within 48 hours which
Shannon
18:07
which tells me like the ndp need to get with the fucking program that hello we're like you got elected to do politics you're in politics people so
Shannon
18:15
so do some politics and lo and behold politics happens and it is a great thing
Carter
18:19
sounds like shannon disliked the ndp deal as much as i did feel
Zain
18:24
feel like you too yeah i think i was It's maybe the lone sort of like, let's see where this goes. Stephen Carter, is
Zain
18:29
is this worse than crossing over to the liberals? I hate to kind of dilute Matt General's political life in a binary, but that is what we're faced with right now. Is this, and we're not, like I know Matt, I like Matt, so I'll put that on the record. But from a pure political fuckery level, which is you're the expert at analyzing, although I'm going to give Shannon the 1A seat on this because well done. done uh is this greater fuckery than crossing over to the liberals it's equivalent outcome wise but what's worse pain for mr pierre pauliev to see matt general on the other side every uh house of commons sitting or to actually have him say goodbye i
Carter
19:08
i think that it's uh i think that the the crossing would have been worse i think
Carter
19:12
that this is good uh you know this is this is this is maximum level of fuckery uh given what what was rumored to have happened to matt and what what is rumored to be have unfolded. But this is a this is still a monumental fuck you. But it is it is not as monumental as crossing the floor. Crossing the floor lasts for four years. Matt Jenner stepping down will last for until
Carter
19:38
until the prime minister decides to call a by-election in the next six months. But the by-election, I think, would be called relatively soon. And I do think that this is conceivably a liberal pickup. If the liberals run a solid campaign in Alberta, my view is that this could be a pickup for them right away. So I'm dying to see how this ends.
Zain
20:03
is there a name?
Zain
20:05
Is there a name for either of you right now? Like, as we get into this, I mean, and leave me outside of it, because yes, I have spent countless nights in the basement of my in-law's house in Edmonton Riverbend. Yeah.
Zain
20:14
So while I am fully qualified, to do it. Do you have a name in mind? Does this bring like the Don Iversons of the world back into the mix or the Randy Balsanos back into the mix or is this a fresh new face? Because the liberals can pour resources into this. A fully funded campaign is more than guaranteed or promised. The NDP needs to decide if they want to play spoiler on this. I suspect they will to some degree in the sense that they'll run a candidate. They'll run a candidate.
Zain
20:42
What do you think this could look like for the liberals?
Carter
20:46
I mean, ultimately Ultimately, I think that if it becomes the liberals versus the conservatives with the NDP just kind of being there, which is at their
Zain
20:53
their historic lows, then this
Carter
20:55
this becomes a real race. I don't think that they're going to—Mark Carney wants another star.
Carter
21:01
I don't think that they're going to go recruit another star. I think that they'll recruit someone from the local
Carter
21:05
local constituency. constituency um
Carter
21:07
um there's always three
Carter
21:09
three or four people who are looking at running at some point and those people will be uh picked on and grabbed uh maybe there's someone who ran in the last municipal election it just ended i don't know if you're familiar with it zane but it just happened um most of the progressive liberal
Carter
21:25
types got elected so i don't
Carter
21:28
sorry really shannon today today is real this is really what you're doing i'm
Carter
21:32
i'm just saying on
Carter
21:34
on a day when we're trying to promote our live show and this type of conflict uh this
Carter
21:39
this is what you get this is what you get a live show what the people pay for this
Carter
21:42
this is what the people pay for is for me to be brought down a couple of pegs um anyways yeah that i think that uh this is this could be a flip for the liberals i think that that's where i was going through this conversation uh before i so rudely interrupted but
Carter
21:56
there's there's bound to be and and keep in mind that the progressives in uh And in Edmonton aren't the same as the Liberals in Edmonton. There's bound to be a candidate or two sniffing around that isn't necessarily a star name.
Carter
22:12
Shannon, do you think the Liberals can pick this up?
Shannon
22:14
I don't know. I haven't looked at the numbers at all. Maybe. But my money wouldn't be on them.
Zain
22:23
No. Right? Because they probably
Shannon
22:25
probably got like, what, a six, eight point deficit to make up or something like that. I mean, no turnout, maybe.
Shannon
22:32
And I don't think, I'm with Carter, I don't think they'd do a star.
Zain
22:37
But there's stakes here, it's what's interesting, right? It's not just a standard issue by election. There is a, like, if, right, if like, let's just say, let's game out the next couple of weeks, couple of days, however long you guys want to add as a window here. It's almost arbitrary, it certainly is. Gennarou puts them at one, let's say they get that one, if Dutremont was correct, which by the way was going to be the star of this topic, but I didn't get a chance to talk to him. This is the Nova Scotia MP who crosses over, announcing that on Budget Day. If
Zain
23:06
If they get one more, and this then goes to a by-election, which it will, then there's stakes.
Zain
23:13
Like real sort of majority-minority stakes here. Are there not, Carter? Yeah, well,
Carter
23:17
well, there already is.
Carter
23:19
Yeah, I mean, I think that this is a massive opportunity for the liberals. I think that they've been—I mean, it is a six-point deficit, or 5.2 or something like that. But this could be absolutely winnable. This is the old stomping grounds of the prime minister as well. So this could be a really massive get, as long as they stay away from the Don Iversons and the Randy Bostenos. Why
Zain
23:47
Why is that a mistake? back why is that a mistake you
Carter
23:49
you don't want to bring back liberal paul uh trudeau liberal trudeau era style liberal politics you want to be flashing forward to a more uh you know blue liberal style of of candidate in my mind especially in alberta so it
Shannon
24:07
it was a it was a 4.8 uh sorry um no you're right it was six points that he won by um and essentially the liberals and new democrats changed uh switched positions in the last election from 21 to 20 uh uh from
Shannon
24:25
from yeah so um i
Shannon
24:28
i mean what were the
Zain
24:28
the ndp what were the ndp at four
Shannon
24:30
four point they put four points on the board in 25 four
Shannon
24:34
four big ones four big ones interesting
Zain
24:35
interesting i mean and 24
Shannon
24:37
24 points in uh 21 but uh the rules got 44 and almost 45 percent of the vote uh
Shannon
24:44
uh so you know um it
Shannon
24:48
it could be if if polyamory is in a real leadership crisis
Shannon
24:53
you know uh it could be that people are like no we we need to have a majority this is bullshit
Shannon
25:00
are going to be feeling their feels there in edmonton uh riverbend they're going to be feeling pretty pretty powerful well
Zain
25:05
well you know what's interesting about this just kind of in in the spirit of just gaming it out i agree with carter that a more center right blue
Zain
25:15
blue tory style liberal is probably the choice but
Zain
25:20
there's also a case to be made that with the math
Zain
25:24
that a i'm not saying hardcore progressive but someone who actually has the ability to and you might say the ndp are going to get four percent regardless and i don't mean to undercut my own point but just kind of be the the candidate that just takes on the left of center all the way through that has enough of the nd credentials etc to kind of just be like yep this person makes sense this person might work uh so to speak and i like like obviously she's not going to do it but like a racky pancholi would be interesting if racky ever wanted to go federal that'd be an interesting person represents the exact same area represents uh obviously uh the new democrats with an orange color but you know might might actually stand out in that in that particular mix if she That's what I mean. If she ran for the liberals, sorry, that was the unsaid part of my statement. Yes, it's no, no, no, absolutely. If she ran for the liberals, she depresses that that federal New Democrat vote. And I'm making assumptions about Racky's politics and all that sort of stuff. But as an example, this could be really interesting. interesting um
Zain
26:19
um carter fine fabulous or fuck the the initial throttle that the uh conservatives sorry that the liberals got so i i asked you about the conservatives if they're fucked in terms of the shot in the arm for the liberals that this and dutrimont gives them fine fabulous or fuck the other side of the equation if there's anything to mind they're still well
Carter
26:39
well i just think that the liberals are are in a really good spot i mean anytime that a city government has people people moving towards them instead of away from them, that
Carter
26:47
that is a good time, right? And things are moving towards the government. I mean, we can talk with
Carter
26:53
with a degree of confidence, not an overly sense of confidence, but a degree that the Liberals will be in that by-election. The Liberals are, you know, the governing party, and they lose by-elections. Governing parties lose by-elections. This is one of those opportunities. You know, we'll remember the last days of Trudeau when they're losing seats in Toronto, And to be potentially combative in Edmonton, this is the Liberals' wet dream. They're having a great time.
Zain
27:25
Shannon, are the Liberals in a fabulous spot right now? If in the fine, fabulous fuck scale, would you put them at fabulous or is this just fine for them right now?
Shannon
27:33
Well, it's sort of fabulous because it's been always clear that the PM is not at all interested in a parliamentary strategy, right?
Shannon
27:41
right? From day one, he's like, I'm not fucking talking to anybody.
Shannon
27:43
And he's made that pretty clear with budget and everything else, like even the budget conversations. And so it's
Shannon
27:50
it's good for them in that now they don't have to. And he won't get called on that particular approach, you know, that might come off as pretty arrogant and they haven't invested a lot of time in their house strategy. And so, you know, that will pay off for him because now he won't really have to have one other
Carter
28:10
other than, you know, he'll have to have a really solid whip to
Shannon
28:13
to make sure everybody is voting at
Shannon
28:15
at the right times. But other than that, he's being validated on his approach that I don't need to talk to the other parties to get my budget done. If they don't want to vote for it, they can trigger an election. Moving on.
Zain
28:30
Carter, can we talk about the generous strategy for a second while making a few assumptions? And I don't want to pick at him or poke at him, but I do want to use him as an extrapolation of what one does when their name is in the rumor mill for crossing. And in this case, what we understand, or at least what the rumor mill suggests, is that he was close to crossing, that there was going to be a sense. And then Jenny Byrne was sent in to do the beatings, as
Zain
28:50
as Janet would say, or to try to convince him otherwise, right, to be more charitable about it. And I guess he did do otherwise. So success. You know, he didn't cross over. But Carter, when your name is out there like this as
Zain
29:08
as a floor crosser, as a potential floor crosser in the Ottawa bubble, are you all but fucked to begin with if you don't do it? Like, I'm just trying to understand how much of the well gets poisoned if your name is mentioned in these conversations and how much is salvageable. And really trying to get into the strategy here of Gennaro in terms of did he have any choices and making knowing clear we are making some assumptions on this podcast. guess well
Carter
29:32
i think that if if it's legit that you're going to cross you know that you're thinking about crossing that you've talked to the other members it becomes a fairly uh known rumor right and i think that matt generu fell into the into the known rumor uh positioning and then when
Carter
29:51
he didn't go i
Carter
29:53
think that it was it was a uh
Carter
29:58
was going to be a black stain on his reputation It was going to be a black mark for him. I think that there's lots of people who don't get to that stage, who don't get as far as Matt Jenner got, who've just been rumored to be crossing, and they can easily stomp it down, have some time with the leader and, you know, get their picture taken and put it into the next round of community
Carter
30:20
community newsletters and boom, they're done.
Carter
30:24
so i do think that that is is part of what uh uh happens normally but i think that generu was actually much further along than that and the the knowing everybody knew it and and if that's you know what do we really know nothing but we we we suspect that he was moving and this is the step that follows when you when you fail at that maneuver
Zain
30:51
did he have no choice if his name was in the orbit in this space in this bit like it seems like some people already knew that that was this was almost a guaranteed thing that people were prepping for the crossover etc as rumors suggest but
Zain
31:04
but once you then have to retreat like did he have no choice but to like leave
Shannon
31:10
maybe i mean short of you know throwing himself in front of the ostrich farm or something as the cfia storms in uh you know and really shoring up his far right uh uh
Shannon
31:21
uh you know um credentials which he was never he was never that guy you know he was interested in things like disability policy and stuff like that um and so uh but you know like to ingratiate himself to the leader i guess he could have you know said no there's actually nothing to this and this is just like liberals making up lies about me and trying to undermine mind your leadership and now i'm gonna you know do a a tour of uh ridiculous far-right podcasts and do some organizing for your uh leadership review and all the rest of it and be really public about it um that would have been the only thing that might have saved him uh
Shannon
31:58
uh but uh no i mean with floor crossing and and basically caucus discipline like it's do or do not right to quote
Shannon
32:09
there's no uh in between on uh uh
Shannon
32:13
uh on on stuff like this like you're in or you're out um
Shannon
32:17
and uh you can't be like if there was anything at all like and there had to have been something to the rumors because even i heard about it you know you guys heard about like everybody who is sort of does business in federal politics heard about it carter
Zain
32:32
carter what do the federal conservatives do here specifically
Zain
32:35
specifically on the general issue like do they continue to be dicks air out that dirty laundry that they promised or has he kind of stopped that from happening with this move but they also have the threat of what we were just discussing earlier of one more now it doesn't have to come from the conservatives it could come from elsewhere but more than likely if there is one more to be gotten it comes from the conservatives just doing the simple math on the board so how do the the conservatives play this both internal game but external sort of comms game like how what advice would you give them at this current junction now that we are one away yeah
Carter
33:11
yeah i mean i would i would i
Carter
33:13
i would advise them that they're going to get uh they're going to get further along with sweets and they're going to get with sours um but they don't have the capacity they never have had had the capacity to demonstrate anything but nastiness. This is their core that Pierre Pauliev and Jenny Byrne represent. And you'll remember, Zane, because you're young and you've got a good memory, that after the election, it was rumored that Jenny Byrne was put out to pasture, that she was
Zain
33:42
was going to be
Carter
33:43
be a has-been, someone who exists in the past tense. Correct. We didn't see that, did we? We
Carter
33:49
We didn't see that. First sign of trouble, in comes Jenny, and what's her modus operandi? Bashing skulls, smacking people around, making sure that people are following the rules. That's what they have. So they will continue to do this over
Zain
34:03
over the course of the year. My question for you, though, Carter, I agree. I tend to agree that it's the instrument that they have honed and will use. Is it also the strategic thing to do now, though?
Zain
34:15
is it all when when you when someone calls out your bluff and it's not a bluff what do you do right like do they take
Zain
34:23
take ownership of like airing out dirty laundry against matt general like i know this sounds insane to discuss but what do they do they're gonna release it and whatever it is we'll
Carter
34:32
we'll cover it yeah
Carter
34:32
yeah true north and and matt
Zain
34:34
matt general gets to go live his life right
Carter
34:36
right and matt general says fuck you fuck you fuck you and they and he goes and does his own thing what
Zain
34:42
what do the the conservatives do here, Shannon? Like, how do they have to play this? Because this is, of course,
Zain
34:47
showing that they're not bluffing in some ways, I guess, when the stakes are this, which is the stakes are quite literally, your guy gets, you know, stuck in captivity for three and a half years, or he has a chance to be prime minister in 16 to 18 months. Like, that's a real difference in terms of Pierre Polyev's viability as leader for the conservatives. So how do they play this in your mind?
Shannon
35:07
Well, in the first instance, you have to get through a leadership race in our leadership review rather uh excuse me in like what 90 days or less um so you know probably focus on the task um as i would often uh exhort my children to do when they were not focusing on the task uh but for and the first thing is to keep your caucus together because
Shannon
35:30
because that's the first step in keeping your party together uh and behind your leadership So it may be that now is not the time for Cruella de Vil to swish around caucus. And maybe they should, I don't know, they could shuffle
Shannon
35:46
shuffle their critic portfolios. That's one way, give people, you know, some nicer roles that are, you know, have been maybe like, maybe people who are even a bit out on Pierre. uh that would be one way to make friends i mean it is so uh out of character for these people to uh want to make friends but you know i would want to do that i would want to make friends with the opposition parties the bloc and the ndp um because you know uh mistakes can happen especially if uh the liberals aren't really taking their house strategy particularly seriously they can joe clark this shit potentially uh still right if they can keep their caucus together so i mean and And when you score things on the government, it congeals the team as
Shannon
36:33
as an opposition, right? And if you don't, then you're sort of driftless and then you have fewer things to occupy the mind and making mischief and picking on each other becomes the task then. So,
Shannon
36:49
if I were them, I would be focused on keeping my caucus together and using every opportunity to do that. If that's highlighting some or letting more people go out and speak that they're not Melissa Lansman and Andrew Scheer to go out and, you know, yell
Shannon
37:01
yell at reporters on Budget Day. Maybe they're using a few more caucus tactics and highlighting a few more people and keeping the team together in the first instance.
Zain
37:15
if you're a fellow Généreux and Dutremont-like person within the CPC caucus right now, talk
Zain
37:23
talk to me about when you go.
Zain
37:26
If you wanted to make a deal, help
Zain
37:28
help me understand when the best time to make a deal is and or announce that you're leaving. Is it now while we all, you know, like literally now as we all learn this information, one, and then two? Is it you give your own self a cycle? What's most painful to the conservatives? What's most helpful to you in terms of reducing your pain? What's best for the liberals? Give me a sense of how you break things down. And these could be individual specific and dependent. But let's just say, in our case, we don't know the next person. If there is one, we don't know. We don't know the name. So give me general advice, strategic advice, in terms of timing for the next floor crosser and how you'd orchestrate it if you were advising them.
Carter
38:10
yeah i mean i would probably choose to do it with the most abs with the absolute most drama available which would be a vote on the budget yeah strong style
Carter
38:21
you know so you stand up on the day of you know maybe it's tomorrow maybe it or maybe it's monday tuesday maybe it's two weeks from now what is the vote that the liberals could lose right everybody's in the house of commons everybody's voting the liberals could lose this and you stand and and you present your vote for the liberals instead of the conservatives and you literally you
Carter
38:45
you know cross the floor in those moments i would recommend doing something like that rather than um
Carter
38:51
um you know going to the prime minister's i mean go to the prime minister's office talk to the prime minister's people or you know have the clandestine uh meetings in the uh in
Carter
39:01
in the private rooms of uh barely used restaurants um those are the the standard tactics do all of that but like let's add some theater to this let's not just cross the floor um you know on a two on a random tuesday or monday uh and get some media attention let's fucking stand up in the house and win a vote the liberals are absolutely necessary required to win and then you've
Carter
39:29
the record of being the person who
Carter
39:32
and voted for the budget you're the reason the budget actually got passed that's
Carter
39:37
that's what i would recommend unless there's a stampede unless there's three other people in front of you then the this this strategy won't work but
Carter
39:44
but frankly i'm not sure that there's a stampede anymore i think that what was going to happen has happened and you
Carter
39:50
you know i don't see three more people lining up to go liberals i think they shut it down um
Carter
39:57
and we'll see how it goes shannon
Carter
39:59
shannon what do you think
Zain
40:01
there might be one or two more more how
Zain
40:03
would you advise them what would you suggest well if there's
Shannon
40:06
there's a group of them i would go with i mean obviously people are mad at pierre and that's usually why floor crossings happen uh it's usually interpersonal stuff it's usually like the leader was was uh very very mean right or made a decision that i don't like it's not usually like public policy stuff i mean steven and i uh both know sandra jansen uh and she left because they were just absolute dicks to her right in in the in the most coarsest possible terms they were so awful to her uh
Shannon
40:40
whatever you know ideological differences she may have had with the 2015 rachel notley ndp uh that got elected by the time uh you know 2017 uh came around or whenever it was uh whenever she crossed maybe i was 18 um you know she had seen how we governed and and like the ideological part was not her concern whatsoever it was how she was being treated within that operation uh and you gotta think
Shannon
41:04
think that there's more than just one or two in an operation that jenny burns been uh circulating around for the last uh few years and we know that she interfered uh heavily in things like nominations and stuff like that, right? And we know how omnipresent she is. So I would be shocked if there isn't a group of them, in which case you're doing it for maximum hurting of Polly Evra more so than the drama on the budget,
Shannon
41:31
like whatever that timing looks like. And you might do it together.
Zain
41:36
Carter, we could discuss this for hours. I want to, our format is broken down already. Any final thoughts of advice to any of the players or characters in this floor-crossing drama? The government, the next floor crossers, the conservatives, the new Democrats. Leave us with one final piece of advice. And Shannon, same to you in a second.
Carter
41:53
If I was the government, I'd be telling anybody who was talking to me that I'm only taking the next one, even if I'm prepared to take two. Make the move. Make the move happen quickly. Say to the person, listen, we're talking to two or three of your colleagues. We're only taking the first one because
Carter
42:11
because it's in the government's interest to get this done as quickly as possible. If I'm one of the, you
Carter
42:18
know, one of the conservative crossers, I'm trying to make the biggest possible splash for myself. And if, you know, if I'm the NDP, I'm looking at my own caucus, just making sure that those seats are safe and that everybody's staying home.
Zain
42:34
Carter, just to clarify for you, the liberals don't need to put out a silver platter for the next one or two people to make this a thing, right?
Zain
42:40
The opposite, you suggest? Yeah,
Carter
42:43
as long as the NDP is in disarray, you've got a de facto partner because they're not going to bring down the government with a interim leader and so few seats in the House.
Zain
42:56
Shannon, any advice to any of the players as we wrap this up?
Shannon
43:00
Well, I think the NDP should bust out with a we are not supporting this budget because
Shannon
43:03
because that too can put pressure on any more conservatives because they don't want an election.
Zain
43:10
yeah that's fascinating look at this we did it the breaking news i think we dealt with it fine there's so much more to be written you know what carter where a lot of that gets written
Zain
43:20
the strategist live show the
Carter
43:21
the strategist live show it's
Carter
43:24
knox united church strategist live show strategist
Carter
43:26
strategist live dot show dot
Carter
43:29
yeah go to it you nasty patrons so we're gonna
Shannon
43:32
gonna leave it there for the calgary party and it might be a funeral for pierre probably over his leadership by the time Wednesday rolls
Zain
43:39
He might be available by then. Who knows? We're going to leave it there. That's a wrap on episode 1891 of The Strategist. Carter, you had a no?
Carter
43:46
we did confirm our special guest, but I'm not announcing who it is. My name
Zain
43:49
name is Zane Belchick.
Zain
43:51
With me, as always, you can tell us about the other one. With me, as always, Shannon Phillips, Stephen Carter, and we shall see you next time.