Episode 1888: An Election About Nothing?

Zain 0:04

This is The Strategist, episode 1888. My name is Zain Velji, and with me, she's back, Annalise Klingbeil. How are you? I'm

Annalise 0:11

I'm good, Zain. I'm so good. How are you?

Zain 0:14

Good. I am excited to talk about municipal politics. In our city, in our home city, yesterday I talked to Chris Henderson, who gave me all the insight around Edmonton. I mentioned that, of course, we are a national podcast, but we've got a lot of listeners in Alberta and we've got a lot of people in the two major cities of this province. You're

Annalise 0:32

You're all caught up on Edmonton now?

Zain 0:35

fucking think so. What'd

Annalise 0:36

What'd you learn? Actually, who's going to win in Edmonton, Zane? So I think Henderson's

Zain 0:39

Henderson's saying this. He's hedging bets. He thinks it's close right now, but there could be a breakout for one of the candidates. And he says smart money is on NAC.

Zain 0:48

Interesting. He also adds that if Cartmel loses, it is considered the biggest political failure in Edmonton history. Not because Cartmel had like a 30-point lead, but because the guy's going to spend more than a million bucks. Yeah,

Annalise 1:00

Yeah, he's got a lot of money. That's going to be a fun accountability episode with your

Annalise 1:05

pal Stephen Carter. With

Zain 1:07

With our pal Stephen Carter.

Annalise 1:08

Carter. Our pal Stephen Carter. Yeah,

Zain 1:10

Yeah, let's give him a broader hug rather than

Annalise 1:12

than an error one.

Zain 1:12

one. I think he needs it. Yeah.

Zain 1:14

I think he might need it in both major cities,

Zain 1:16

depending on how this episode goes. It's

Annalise 1:17

going to be good accountability. Okay, listen, on that front, have

Zain 1:21

have we not had a mayoral election in Calgary run by one Stephen Carter where someone has spent a million dollars and lost badly? Like, I didn't bring this up yesterday because it did cross my mind, but didn't Alnur Kassam pretty much mean a million bucks

Annalise 1:36

bucks and an L? And he lost very badly. Yes, that's like Calgary

Annalise 1:41

Calgary lore. Yeah, no, a million dollars. I think he paid Carter a lot of that and he lost very poorly. yeah

Zain 1:48

could carter repeat could carter do the the ultimate repeat the

Annalise 1:51

the edmonton version two

Zain 1:53

two million dollar losses oh i i

Zain 1:56

feel bad for carter but you know he's signed up for this he's the one who's told us he's

Annalise 1:59

he's running has dug he

Annalise 2:01

is this is carter's brought this onto himself right he's running a lot of a lot of people in a lot of places and we'll see where the dust settles on monday fuck

Annalise 2:11

tuesday actually zane because we will not have results on monday oh

Zain 2:15

oh yes and i should should plug a couple of things a uh at least cling bill as everyone knows champion communications of you know a member of this podcast also a longtime political observer in the city probably one of the best minds in the municipal arena in this city i would say but also i would mention when you mentioned monday heading into tuesday you're going to be on global on monday night

Annalise 2:34

night so people should watch

Annalise 2:36

you yes i'm i'm commenting on global which will be different for me normally i ask the questions um and it should be fun because there will be no results so this is interesting

Annalise 2:45

interesting have a lot to talk about i got

Zain 2:46

got asked to do city tv and i was going to but i have

Zain 2:49

to montreal they were gonna do like a 6 p.m hit for and i hope i'm not revealing their plans but like they were gonna do

Zain 2:56

hits in between is global just doing a show like are you

Annalise 2:59

you guys just sitting

Annalise 3:00

sitting in a studio for six hours we're doing a rehearsal today zane so i should have more details um but my understanding is that it will be online um

Annalise 3:10

online it'll be like popping into the five six and then it'll be streaming and then i don't think the

Zain 3:15

the streaming will be like you guys had like a show like an actual

Annalise 3:18

actual election show that i can watch i think don't quote me on that because there's a rehearsal i did bump into um someone at cbc yesterday at the debate and asked what they're doing and they're doing like an hour but it's province-wide because i'm like how are you going to fill this hour there's going to be no results theirs is all across the province because they have all these bureau people and

Annalise 3:35

and it'll be an hour on radio and then i think tv and online line again don't

Annalise 3:40

don't quote me on that but um

Annalise 3:42

um yeah and i'm not sure what ctv is doing i do know normally champion where i work yeah um previously the last election we had like a big election watch party you

Zain 3:51

you guys did yeah

Annalise 3:51

yeah we did at um down

Annalise 3:54

down at national and there was like some people were disappointed in the quality of the of of the traditional media because

Annalise 4:02

because it's not like i don't know 2000 when you would sit and they would do like a live tv special that's just not happening right and This is a lane

Zain 4:09

lane for us. We should have done a live podcast with Stephen Carter and you. Or you, maybe you, I won't be here, but you and

Zain 4:15

and Stephen, back on the pod, on the pod right now, Annalise, retract your global agreement, and we'll do the podcast right now.

Annalise 4:23

That's what Carter needs. Like, just live, live Carter when everything he has poured his heart and soul into for months. It's melting out.

Annalise 4:32

Yeah. I'm not going to say it's going to

Annalise 4:33

melt down. You should charge big money for people to watch that scene. That would be

Zain 4:37

be good. Okay. Yeah. Fuck. I don't even know where to start. I didn't even know where to start yesterday because both elections in Calgary and Edmonton seem to have a similar drumbeat. But let me start with this observation. And then maybe we'll take it from there. And you tell

Zain 4:50

me if you agree. And then if you disagree, great. If you agree, great.

Zain 4:55

The left doesn't know what to do in this election.

Annalise 4:57

Yeah, I would agree with that.

Zain 5:00

Can we start there? And maybe I don't know if that's a great place to start. we can start

Annalise 5:03

start there okay i think this election like so people have been talking about how this election is boring what because

Annalise 5:08

i don't know because this it relates people have been talking and jump in sam because you know calgary uh

Annalise 5:13

uh people have been talking about how this election is boring right they're talking about like this is a seinfeld election it's the election about nothing they're talking yes someone has dubbed it um the

Annalise 5:21

the election like meh election i do not like that term um

Annalise 5:26

um people are talking about how it's boring and i think it is boring like what's the ballot box question we're three days out what's the ballot box question what's the big idea what's the talker and I think also what's making it boring is like we know the players right one of them has been mayor two of them ran last time one

Annalise 5:46

one of them has been a city councillor and then you insert Brian Thiessen into the mix um but he had it's been like I would say the past couple weeks that people are maybe paying a little bit more attention to Brian Thiessen but there's no like I don't know where You tell me, like, what's the ballot box question? We're three days out. I was at the CBC debate yesterday with some people and it ended and I turned to everyone around me. I'm like, what's the ballot box question?

Annalise 6:12

No one knows and everyone has a different idea. Someone's like, it's what Davison's saying. It's all about affordability. And someone else is like, no, it's about safety. Like, there's no, why,

Annalise 6:20

why, how are we getting people motivated and getting them out to vote?

Zain 6:25

It is interesting. So let me run through the candidates for those that may not be exactly tuned in, which, by the way, If you read the polling, it's most fucking people. I'm

Zain 6:32

I'm not even just saying most people who listen to this podcast because there's a lot from out of this province who are now going to be tuned into our municipal scene. But I'm saying most people in our city have no fucking clue what's going on. So you got Gondek, who's the current mayor, right? You got Farkas, who came in second last time as the conservative choice. This is the former counselor who's now running as a, let's put a pin on this, but a progressive white.

Annalise 6:54

white. We can get into that. He's put himself in a box. We will get into that. So,

Zain 7:00

So, yeah, speaking of someone else, you know, putting herself in a box and perhaps one that she wants to be in, Sonia Sharpe, communities first, running under a banner, not shying away from her conservative roots and the direction she wants to go. You mentioned Brian Thiessen. This is the Calgary party. This is Carter's party. Brian, a well-respected labor lawyer or employment lawyer, I should say, in the Calgary space, former police commission chair. chair and then jeff davison this is running as an independent ward former ward six counselor ran for mayor last time as you alluded to um and of course is also leading a little bit more conservative in that in that regard you've got other folks running but that's the that's the batch is it not yeah yeah

Annalise 7:42

yeah no that's a batch and davison independent but abc which is a party that hasn't really made waves has endorsed him and i think it's worth it's worth noting too like in In terms of the Calgary history, Davis and Farkas and Gondek know each other extremely well. Like, not only did they run against each other four years ago, they all started on council at the same time. So, the 2017 election, which I know well, you know well, right? You were running Nenshi's. I was covering City Hall at the time.

Annalise 8:12

Four new councillors at the 2017 election. So, that Nenshi won, beat Bill Smith. Four new councillors. Those councillors were George Chahal, Jody Gondek, Jeff Davison, and Jeremy Farkas, right? That's true. i

Zain 8:23

i forgot you're right

Annalise 8:24

right that was like i honestly saying is so it's funny how much has changed in eight years because i remember that day after the election doing the story of here are the four new people how there was a front page picture of the four of them like fists in the middle look at us and then like just

Annalise 8:40

just funny where they all ended up after that to haul obviously an mp and then the three all decided they wanted to run for mayor ran against each other last time and i feel like like last time there wasn't that much excitement like there was it was a different election it was 2021 it was COVID it was different but you have these three people who no one was like I

Annalise 9:00

I don't think exceedingly excited about last time all running against each other again with two two other faces in the mix okay

Zain 9:08

okay so I I regret starting with the left doesn't know what to do but I do want to come back to that question because I think you've actually hit on the the more interesting one for me which is why

Zain 9:16

why and how is this different from last time it because you know you've got thesen in the mix and you now got sharp in the mix okay three

Zain 9:26

three folks who did it before one who's reinvented or reimagined themselves one who's running as an incumbent with baggage but what's really different here from 2021 when you've seen some of the same faces in the same names I

Annalise 9:38

I think like people are different right

Annalise 9:41

and like I maybe I'm biased here because I've had two kids in the past four years but like I did it just seems like four years ago was like a simpler time was it not like in terms of the media environment in terms of the social media environment in terms of like politics in the states like I don't know it just seems it seems simpler people are on this big like in terms of no one's interested they're like there's just so much going on and

Annalise 10:06

and there is is right and maybe i'm like rose-colored glasses looking at 2021 i think 2021 was like

Annalise 10:14

like a lot of that campaign they everything was online right they weren't doing debates in person um when we did our election watch party which would have been october whatever middle of october 2021 it was one of the first times that it was like oh we've we have a lot of people in a room together

Annalise 10:29

together watching watching something and then two months later it was that new variant of um and

Annalise 10:36

everyone else was was like back in their houses again right so i just i think i just think it was a different time in 2021 and people have like i

Annalise 10:47

i don't know changed a lot their capacity is different but it's it's kind of like a repeat and then i would say in 2021 there was there

Annalise 10:55

there was more like what's what's it's a big idea no none of the candidates have come out with like i

Annalise 11:01

i don't they haven't i don't there's no there's no big idea there's no talker i would say maybe and it came up yesterday in the debate sonja sharp's 500 police officers and the police endorsement is like that's a talker but

Annalise 11:13

but it can't happen like you can't bring 500 new police officers in four years without it having a massive massive you know impact on on city budget so i don't in

Annalise 11:26

in so is you know it was her was her thought there let's like really frame it around public safety and it's i don't

Annalise 11:32

don't think the ballot box question is do you feel less safe than you did four years ago and you can also look at crime stats um that they counter that so i don't know i think and you can talk about 2017 i feel like my recollection of that and it was a while ago was like taxes was a big thing arena was a big thing it was also voter

Annalise 11:51

voter turnout voter turnout was huge and you can probably talk about this more but that was like the

Zain 11:55

the 200 000 um vote mark which by the way if we just look at some of the raw math here the the winner on monday night slash

Zain 12:03

slash tuesday morning yeah

Zain 12:04

might be someone who squeaks by with 90 yeah

Annalise 12:08

yeah i was gonna say nowhere near that 200 and then 90 to

Zain 12:10

to 120 might be just just to understand in a city of 1

Zain 12:14

ish million i don't

Annalise 12:16

don't know aren't we more than 1.4 maybe yeah

Zain 12:19

.4 ish million probably just as under a sub million electors um 120 000 is what it's going to take to become mayor of the city so when

Annalise 12:27

when you think of nuts like the mandate that gives or doesn't

Zain 12:30

doesn't give to be clear right like this is the weakness of the mandates that mayors will be be receiving here it's not a significant one but

Annalise 12:37

but it's also like do people do people care so i bumped into i was at the chamber debate as well and bumped into rick bell who i'm sure many people are familiar with I know him well um from from when I worked at the Herald and we

Annalise 12:48

we were talking after and he's kind of like he's like no like I've just been hearing about how mad people are for four years but where are these people I'm like are they mad like

Annalise 12:58

or do they just not care and I think the big thing I'll be looking for on election night is is the voter turnout right like do do the undecided come out or do they just not vote and in my circles amongst and like I have friends who are like teachers, lawyers, doctors, nurses, but also engaged people, former journalists I stay in touch with, very engaged people. And they're like, I feel like I have to force myself to do some research and watch a debate because I don't know what's happening. And that's the engaged. So if that's where you're engaged are in this election, what about everyone else?

Zain 13:32

Oh, man, I think you've put out so much wisdom on the table. Let me start with a couple of things and just react to a few of the things you've said. So So

Zain 13:41

I find this concept of 2021 being a simpler time extremely wise because I think you're right and you've hit on something, which is COVID was something that afflicted everyone. So the argument there is that it was a monoculture thing. We were living in a very strange time, no doubt, an extremely trying time, but there was almost a bit of a monoculture. Everyone was at home plugged into the same Internet box to receive the same amount of communications. we also had a very clear ballot box question that was framed by by gondek and by extension carter who was running gondek's campaign at that time which was taking on jason kenny 100

Annalise 14:19

100 percent right so we had a very clear

Zain 14:22

clear lane of farkas and and in credit to gondek at the time farkas is an extension of kenny i am going to fight kenny on everything that was happening in the monoculture of covid that

Zain 14:33

that was a simpler time because it was easy to digest it was easy to understand we were We're all living the same truth, the same reality. You could even, you

Zain 14:42

you know, our memories are so short, but 2021 was

Zain 14:45

was just the start of vaccinations coming out, of vaccines being available. We hadn't really hit the peak of the anti-vax movement. We hadn't hit the convoy movement yet. We hadn't hit all these fracturing things. I'm not saying there was like harmony in the air, but I do think you make a very good point that we were kind of, it was a simpler time. There was no Trump. It was

SPEAKER_01 15:07

was a Biden administration.

Zain 15:07

administration. There was no global worldly down south distraction. You know, 2021 in that same relative time horizon. Trudeau had just gotten reelected. The emergence of Pierre Polyev was not a thing as an alternative. So we were living in a very different, like, and we were also on the, what

Zain 15:28

what I'd say, at least in like the very narrow confines of history, was on the high point of the broader sort of equality, justice, equity,

Zain 15:40

which I don't think is the reason Gondek is in office, but I think it's certainly kind of contributed to that more compassionate, look what we can do sort of spirit of culture. sure. I think we were just there.

Zain 15:50

This is a very different time. Extremely fractured, extremely distracting, the down south element of it. And what's fascinating to me is that I think more people today on raw numbers are engaged in politics as a cultural observational sport. Fewer people are engaged in politics as a raw, let me put my vote somewhere sport. And I think they're engaged in culture because politics is culture based on what's happening down south, what's

Zain 16:13

down south with us on a national level, with what Smith is doing on a daily basis. So I think there's a lot of wisdom there on 2021 being a simpler time, even though this is a rerun of some of the same candidates with a few more characters this time around.

Zain 16:26

The ballot box question here is fascinating to me because I think it's starting to emerge this week or this weekend. What do you

Annalise 16:32

you think it is? I'm so curious. And also, like, there's three days. Why is it emerging with

Annalise 16:38

Tell me what you

Zain 16:39

you think it is. This is not insightful. This is not insightful other than to say, it kind of goes to my first question, which is other than to say, okay, Sharp looks more viable than ever before. Who can stop bad things from happening? I don't think the question is who is the best mayor.

Zain 16:55

that were the question who can and whatever bad things are to you if it's a gondek rerun by the way one of the questions available on the table which i'm surprised is not the question we're fighting here is a referendum on jyoti gondek but

Zain 17:07

but here she is jyoti gondek who's running as like oh yeah by the way i was mayor and i still continue to be mayor as almost a brand new thing and she's first or second in the polls like if if jyoti gondek wins monday night people won't celebrate that as a Jyoti Gondek win as much as they'll be like yeah low voter turnout all those things but holy shit did she escape strategically or otherwise from a referendum the woman literally had a fucking recall against her and she could be mayor again which goes back to your other wise point around are people actually mad or are they disengaged and will the engaged people finally learn the lesson like the engaged people on the center right let's just say the center all the way to the left kind of say maybe we got to coalesce around Gondek I'm not saying that's what everyone's doing I don't want to count out these and I don't count on anybody at this case because 50% undecided, you know, in that sense, the smart money is that most of those people stay home. But there could be some true undecideds in that mix, as you mentioned, with even the hyper engaged. But I think the question that is framing up is a negative partisan question, which is who can stop evil from happening or who could stop bad stuff from happening? Not evil might be too deep of a word or too charged of a word. Whatever that might mean for you. And for the left or for the center in the left, as sharp has become more viable, I think that question snaps into focus. And then for the right, as Gondek and a new progressive-like version of Farkas flirt with one and two in the polls, the coalescing around sharp might occur. So this is – I

Zain 18:38

I don't think it's a perfect question. I don't think it's a universal question. It's not about infills. It's not about housing. It's not about safety. safety it's about vibes and and and where you kind of stand in that sense now is that what the gen pop is thinking i

Zain 18:49

don't know you tell me well

Annalise 18:50

well i i think even that speaks to the point about it being boring right like that

Annalise 18:56

that no no one came out a big piece of this i would say like six months ago a lot of the conversations i was having just with folks was like city of two million people we're going to be two million people what are we like as a city of two million people yeah what are our big ideas how do we have infrastructure how do we have safety the housing right like fastest growing city in Canada 250 people moving here a day it could have been I think with the right framing something that excited people about like yeah who who is best suited to lead us to a city of two million people who are we excited about who do we want in charge as our kids grow that type of thing and no one has been able to do that I think sharp has hit sharp is the one who's increased the most in the polls that we've seen out of the few polls that we've seen and sharp has money um i think that was apparent when the disclosures came out she and her party have money i

Annalise 19:46

i think um thesen and and carter and the calgary party have been kind of running an anti um anti daniel smith campaign

Annalise 19:53

campaign for a while but it has not been until the past week i would say the thursday day chamber debate that they've tied sonia sharp to daniel smith which

Annalise 20:04

which is a really

Annalise 20:05

easy like for weeks i'm like why is no one doing this there are easy connections there's easy endorsements there's pictures like there is an easy connection last night um

Annalise 20:13

um at the cbc debate uh tson brought it up a few times sharp did say she said like i'm a card carrying nobody i don't answer to anybody we need positive relationships farkas is trying to bring up the take back alberta endorsement of of sharp but that even that like the connection between daniel smith and sharp i would say we're a week into that connection yeah

Annalise 20:35

right like it's and

Zain 20:36

and i heard i heard it yesterday so just to bring folks up to speed yesterday was what you'd call probably the most premium debate is that was podiums

Annalise 20:44

podiums yeah they were not in chairs there was podiums saying hey

SPEAKER_01 20:49

hey uh guys uh sorry to interrupt cory here um thought i would take a little bit of time out of my busy day job of running the the country to do the important work of letting you know they are they're lecterns they're not podiums okay thanks back to you i

Zain 21:06

mean and i think the chamber did a good job and others did a good job putting on a debate that's not what i'm trying to imply here but the premium in terms of timing thursday before the election and

Annalise 21:12

and the last one it was like it was debate number 17 it was the last one they were standing the format i thought was very well done yeah

Annalise 21:22

um i was again chatting with someone who with cbc before i went in who said like they it was they kind of put it together quickly but their big thing was they wanted to be the last one um

Annalise 21:31

um and also the streaming right like it was it was streamed i think online i was there in person but it was streamed online i'm sure you could probably hear it on the radio i think it was on radio right

Annalise 21:40

right like it was yeah on radio

Annalise 21:42

whereas the chamber which i should say it was like chamber creative calgary uh downtown association construction it was like kind of a group of them and that was kind of the big big one but the streaming wasn't great

Annalise 21:53

great it was like i think uh tv did the first little bit and then they directed people to online but then the link wasn't like working good like yeah i think and the i i was in person at both the audiences and one can imagine right the chamber one was downtown right after work uh more of a corporate crowd interestingly the chamber one the biggest biggest applause of the night was when candidates spoke negatively about smith um timing there interesting

Annalise 22:22

i thought that was interesting the timing though too is you were like what was the date a week ago like the teacher strike had just started right so that was on october 9th teacher strike started on the 6th um so maybe maybe that was a bit of it like that my takeaway was like okay calgarians are really united that we don't like smith and that we like teachers the cbc one i would say is harder to pull things out of the audience because it's like it's exactly who you would imagine listens to the cbc and loves the cbc and is engaged with the cbc um with some candidates you know putting their supporters in the room there was like there was an ask for no kind of applause and interaction and davison was getting a lot of applause and so then others were also applauding and laughing and kind of interacting that way um yeah i don't know where i don't know where i was going with that but i would say the cbc one was kind of the big like big final book and debate which if

Annalise 23:16

if if it's a three horse race and 35 of people are undecided and this is like the last debate someone needed to blow people out of the water and i don't think that happened and the other thing and i'd be curious your take on this saying i've been like very surprised that this is not happening this election there's

Annalise 23:33

there's no like social

Annalise 23:35

social media rapid so there was a a few things at the debate yesterday for different candidates where I'm like where's their team they should be clipping this getting this on social media having a part of the conversation and I think social has changed like I come from a time when people would be doing that on Twitter right like Twitter was and I was sitting beside someone yesterday at the debate who said like oh this is where I love Twitter when you're like at something like this and you can go on Twitter and scroll and see what other people are like thinking live well this is happening you know you have that like kind of conversation no one's on Twitter right now right like that's not that's not happening but then the only candidate I saw who did it and Sonia Sharpe did it at both debates had the debate and then instantly that night a post Sonia Sharpe won the CBC debate and a picture of her smiling Sonia Sharpe won the chamber debate and then a lot of shares because her supporters are like yeah she won it and then comments are people being like no you didn't like in what world did you win it you lost it but she's the only one that I've seen I looked this morning because I was curious look this morning at um the five like front runners instagrams season had just posted one sort of clip but like where is that like machine of like you know here's that math is difficult line that then we pull out and then we get everywhere almost like in an attack ad you know whether it's your candidate saying something great or or someone else screwing up like where is that kind of like attack ad social media apparatus because i would argue that's easier than ever to do

Annalise 25:03

with a phone in your pockets.

Zain 25:07

Yeah, I mean, from my perspective on that front end, let me respond to this and then kind of tell you where I want to go, because I want to talk about, and you mentioned three-horse race, and I want to pick up on that in a second shortly as we examine each of those three candidates and then talk about the scenarios we could see on Monday slash Tuesday. So let's get to that in a second. But before that, let's talk about process, because you've jumped into process, and I think it's very important, because there's been an absence of a few things this election. And I think the environment is certainly different. You can comment, but let me give you the top line sort of things that have changed. Media, different. Yeah,

Zain 25:44

media. Yeah, media, different, eroding and fractured. Okay, we can discuss that.

Zain 25:48

Organic is different because it's no longer, as we've mentioned multiple times on this podcast, most platforms for modern social media are now algorithmic rather than graph-based. which means that you're not just seeing what your friends are putting online. Anyone can go viral with anything all the time, but there's no guarantee that your followers are even seeing what you're putting out there. This is the extremely simplified up and down of organic.

Zain 26:11

Paid, I've heard money is extremely hard to come by.

Zain 26:14

I've heard money is extremely hard to come by and that it has been hard to get eyeballs on certain things for candidates, even if they've been putting stuff on meta and putting a decent ad spend behind it. um you know let alone like things like tv and if you remember bill smith or you know in 2017 when we were facing that election his paid included actual billboards i don't think

Annalise 26:38

think i've seen a single

Zain 26:39

single billboard outside of sonia sharp in downtown which i believe is just that one car dealership slash former car dealership area you know what i'm talking about on the fly over oh

Annalise 26:48

i drive by every wednesday morning thing yeah so

Zain 26:50

so what you can tell me what that is but that might just simply be a where her campaign office is or a very very very committed its supporter but that was also the same bill smith sign location that way you would see all the time uh smith rented out things like out of home in the flames arena um because to your point earlier the arena debate was massive in that uh

Zain 27:09

in that regard and uh trying to position nj as the anti-calgary flame person in that regard um so

Zain 27:14

so paid is different um there's no rate i haven't heard a single radio spot have you heard a single radio spot no

Annalise 27:20

no but also like ads have you have

Annalise 27:22

have you very few yeah have you seen i haven't

Zain 27:24

haven't i haven't seen any like set pieces i haven't seen any sort of like set piece ads in the sense of like here's an ad about me as a candidate 30 15 skippable unskippable six second with like two

Zain 27:35

two i know i haven't seen any of that i think that might be a direct result of money yeah

Zain 27:39

um but i'll put it this way you know i think on organic we've taken a step back to your point on rapid response i don't know why maybe people don't have the horsepower or they haven't seen the performance you know one of the things with algorithmic social media that i have as a theory is that it actually could lead to decreased uh and it's not like a novel theory it could lead to decreased um sort of desire to post when your stuff doesn't reach when a reel doesn't get the likes you need you you know you almost kind of think of it as like oh it's not working it incentivizes you to not do it or not next time right yeah

Zain 28:11

and i know the whole thing of the platform is that one out of every four things just goes crazy and bonkers so then you get excited that the next one will but it just might be like the team is just like this is not not important no one's and it just might be this cloud like even us talking about organic social media it's right but i think that contributes to it it

Zain 28:26

it contributes to people not engaging and not doing the stuff that we would consider uh conventional wisdom or like uh yeah but maybe maybe we're gonna on the back end of this find out what the new baseline of conventional wisdom on social media and paid media looks like but let me let me give you the on organic i think we've taken a step back this election on paid i think we've taken a step back this election but i'll They'll excuse people that they don't have the money to do it. But in terms of the art, the creativity, the placement, the timing, the virality, or even the try to punch through, the attack ads, the stunts, all that sort of stuff that comes with it, I think we're taking a step back. Where I think we might have taken a step forward is if you were on the email list of these folks, on the owned side of things, the email list, I think campaigns are doing quite a good job talking to their supporters. Now, I have no sense. This is what Henderson yesterday said about the Edmonton campaign. I'll say about the Calgary campaign. i have no sense how big these dashboards are i have no

Zain 29:20

sense how big these email lists are i have no sense of how uh any of this information if you sign up to the calgary party is getting shared beyond it but i'll tell you they're doing sophisticated stuff i'd say and i'm on most of these lists across the board yeah

Zain 29:30

i think owned is taking a step forward or it's like you know on par with what you'd expect but i'd say on the organic and paid um it is not existing in that in that same way. The other thing I'm fascinated about is polling.

Zain 29:47

We've had two landmark Janet Brown polls of two when I say two I mean one for Edmonton one for Calgary right so but two at the same time of the Calgary one kind of showing an extremely tight race up front. We've had some Leche stuff but we haven't really seen any any other players in the mix and I'm surprised that even from a just

Zain 30:04

just a downright strategy perspective there's no late breaking poll last night or this this morning to

Annalise 30:10

to just kind of indicate

Zain 30:11

indicate that maybe this is this is a core consideration of strategy a core consideration of money but there's no sort of it's a three horse race here's the things defined heading into the weekend have this conversation it's

Zain 30:23

it's it's we're recording at 10 50 in the morning have you seen anything this morning because this morning would be the time to release it i have not seen anything and

Annalise 30:29

and i poked around yesterday and the day before and to the best of my knowledge there was not braid has don braid had like a line in his column yesterday that was like according to a secret poll that i'm not going to tell anyone about it's a it's a total three-way tie all three of the front runners are at the exact same number but like what does that mean like show me the poll um so no other than that one line in don braid's column that was posted last night i have not heard or seen of any polling that will be public um leading into the weekend when people are supposed to be making up their minds in what is being framed. And I think fairly from, I think Janet was like, everyone was waiting for Janet Brown's poll, right? There had been kind of some other dribs and drabs, including like a Main Street one. Is

Zain 31:17

Is Main Street back in the

Annalise 31:17

the mix? Sorry, not Main Street. Sorry, sorry, sorry. No, I have Main Street on my mind. It's the 2017. Not Main Street. Mark Henry. I've been purged

Zain 31:24

purged Main Street. Think

Zain 31:25

HQ. Oh, think HQ. The

Annalise 31:26

The think HQ one. Mark Henry. But Mark Henry's like involved with Sonia Sharpe's campaign, right? So Think HQ, like literally you can look it up. The address to donate to Communities First is the same address of Think HQ headquarters. So Think HQ came up with a poll via Sonia Sharp that puts Sonia Sharp in first. So there was that. And again, that's like, you're like an insider to know like who is Mark Henry. Do you want Sonia Sharp in first if you want her

Zain 31:55

her to win? Like I'm just like now thinking of pure strategy. Like would that not like further the progress or the center to the far left

Annalise 32:04

So I think what has been really interesting to me about Sharp's campaign is like, she is the one who's hit momentum at the right time. But to your point, it's almost like people are coming out and two days before being like, the ballot box question is who can beat Sonia Sharp? Who can take her on? And that's like what causes people to coalesce. She's run

Zain 32:22

run like a visible campaign. Her signs are everywhere. As you've said, money has not seemed to be a problem for her per se. okay um so she does look like a front-runner status i do want to revisit before i jump into this can i can i take us a step back to something you said and i don't want to miss out this out on the conversation which is the

Zain 32:41

the big question if

Zain 32:43

someone why do you think the big question was not framed whether that is the version of the two million city question or the next chapter question or someone trying to really like yes i've got policies on x y and z but i'm framing this as the election of big thing is that just a factor of someone not doing it is that a factor of someone trying to do it and not punching through and not being able to communicate it like and and what do you think was kind of missing in this race in that regard with that big thing that would make it i'm not saying that alone would make it less boring but it would make it a little bit more exciting and i want to make sure i capture your thoughts on this a noting the absence which i i agree with but b maybe give me a bit of why from your perspective around why do you think it was missing i

Annalise 33:27

i think it again to the point about it being boring is like people are playing it safe right like farkas and maybe now's the time to get into the the change like farkas has painted himself in a box that he can't get out of in order for farkas to win he needs some progressive give me the back give

Zain 33:44

give me the backstory on farkas okay

Annalise 33:46

okay so the backstory on farkas like a very quick quick one yeah

Annalise 33:49

yeah yeah farkas was first elected in 2017 he was like 30 31 one of the youngest counselors ever at the time if not the youngest manning center trained very so like trained from like a very conservative school of like thought and i would say media relations of like here's your key message you go and you say your key message and you say it and you say it and you say it um so he served his four years then he ran he lost he was runner up to gondek last time then he went on a big um hike like and i'm not making fun of it he is as someone who loves the outdoors what he did he went on a very hard long hike got like a shit ton of media out of it um so instantly when he's on this hike people are like well farkas is gonna run again right like why if you're just like going to reflect the politics

Annalise 34:39

it right you're going to reflect but he like he was in media i would argue that first year of gondek and mayor and someone can look at the stats like farkas was in media almost as much as gondek and she was like mayor but he was like he did this thing for charity and he would like check in while he was on the trail from a satellite phone and this and that um

Annalise 34:58

um i obviously know farkas from covering him in 2017 and then him

Annalise 35:02

him and i went for like a walk this couple years ago now because i was like so so frustrated by the media coverage because media was just like this is a new Farkas and I was like has he changed do people change so we went on a walk for my newsletter that was just like did he change has Farkas changed anyways from there um he what was your concern

Zain 35:23

concern and I apologize I don't remember the piece but what was your conclusion that's

Annalise 35:27

that's a good question I don't even know if I remember what the conclusion was it's almost like that's

Zain 35:30

that's actually exactly the point right

Annalise 35:32

right like the fact that people are asking the

Zain 35:33

the question is is almost is almost like important because the question is framed around him well

Annalise 35:38

well and it's like it's like a i was so fascinated by it from like a psychology point of view like to do do people change is it all an act

Zain 35:47

act and that quickly right like i think the question is compounded with do people change in a very convenient this is no slight against fark is because because uh i have respect for the guy and his skills but do people change in a convenient election cycle like timeline like and in like in

Annalise 36:03

in a way where you're in media all the time like i know people including including

Zain 36:07

including them being a panel mate of right

Annalise 36:10

right and so then cbc so that in subsequent years

Zain 36:12

years they're on it totally

Annalise 36:13

totally right so then kind of the the redemption tour nenshi and him do this spot on cbc which is a lot of people listen to the eye-opener yeah

Annalise 36:22

um but yeah he kind of was more like painted in in the years after that of like you know friend friend of nenshi and he's changed and and that sort of thing and i think fundamentally that's like and he has darcy lebray who who was nenshi's comms guy who

Annalise 36:39

was nenshi's comms guy for years is like super senior on farkas's campaign which is a piece that like media like everyone knows that they know that they talk about it was darcy but like in He's like a well

Zain 36:50

15-year vet of the Calgary media lands. He literally does media relations. He's like, and

Zain 36:55

I don't think he's hiding behind this, to be clear.

Annalise 36:56

clear. No, no, not at all. Darcy's been quite

Zain 36:59

quite proud of his work there. And he very well might end up in City Hall again, which is really

Zain 37:03

interesting. But in the media environment,

Annalise 37:06

remember when Fargus launched, I'm like, why did no one even have a sentence that was like, you know, his comms guy, or whatever Darcy was at the time on the campaign, was Nancy's, right? right right like

Annalise 37:18

like whether whether they revealed it but me it wasn't hidden that is not hidden i'm not like telling state secrets you're not exposing

Zain 37:25

exposing it yeah yeah right

Annalise 37:26

right but the fact the fact that you go from like someone who was in ninshi's inner circle for years who is now in farkas's inner circle is fascinating and i think the farkas campaign needs right they need the progressive to your point about the left like i think the left will really short of like davison dropping out this weekend and endorsing sharp i think that the left like whoever wins needs the left right and so it then you get back to this fundamental question that i asked a couple years ago of like has he changed do people change and i think that's something that people are like grappling with and in the debates that i've seen it's come up his opponents call him like flip-flop farkas this and that but like also you know can can people change he was young before can they learn from their mistakes has

Annalise 38:12

has he changed i think that like in terms of a ballot box question if you know on monday we're still going into it with like farkas as front runner has

Annalise 38:21

has he changed is almost what the ballot box question is which is like we

Annalise 38:25

we could do hours a podcast let's let's

Zain 38:28

let's let's do a couple minutes but on this and i'm glad you're brought in farkas to this point why

Zain 38:36

these let's use these and let's not pick on carter but let's pick on these in for a second because this guy could have been the answer for um best mayor of calgary yeah

Zain 38:43

if you want the best person with the qualifications outsider if you're tired of this fucking bullshit of all these has-beens and wanting to be uh continue to be mayor i'm the guy with the right credentials big

Zain 38:54

big question uh in the sense of the big asking the big question or pushing did he try and just couldn't punch through do you feel like he didn't try to ask like what do you what do you kind of think the story of thesen here's because because he might actually be our gateway to talking about what i think is a a big story in this camp in this campaign which the the parties because unlike edmonton where it's got the cartmel belonging to a party and everyone else being an independent uh we've got now two parties here calgary party at least at least in terms of uh with mayoral candidates i should say and i know you mentioned earlier that davison isn't endorsed by a party

Zain 39:24

and so in sharp belonging to a very uh buttoned down sort of more conservative approach so talk to me about the thesen story here in the frame of parties yes but also in the frame of the big question yeah

Annalise 39:37

think if the if we had like two or three more weeks in the campaign i

Annalise 39:41

think it would be different for thesen but

Zain 39:44

but he started months months ago like he

Annalise 39:45

he started he started so early but he was like he started as like such like okay he was chair of the police commission he was like citizen of the year in 2020 i think which again kovat based on his work on the commission i know him well from when i was a city hall reporter and he was chair of the police commission right

Annalise 40:04

but like the does Does the average person even know what the police commission is? No

Zain 40:08

No idea. They probably confused it with the police association. That's

Annalise 40:12

many ways. I think that name recognition piece was a really, really, really big uphill battle. I do think people at the debates, but it's insiders watching the debates. So usually the debates afterwards, I chat with a lot of people, hear what they're thinking, what they're saying. The chamber one, people were like, Thiessen won that 100%. He also, that was the first time he went really hot on tying Sharp to Smith. And again, the teacher strike timing. Last night, I feel like people felt like Davison, and Davison was entertaining, right? Like people thought that Davison, in terms of like a winner, I think he's then, the conversations in my circles are like, we really like him. He would be great. But does he have a chance? Which gets back to ballot box question. if ballot box question is who is best suited to take on sonia sharp um

Annalise 41:06

um i just i think he i think he needed a couple more maybe longer than that and i don't i don't want to count him out anything could happen it's a three horse race undecideds are really really high um but i think if season can't pull it off i think the timing the name recognition and also again there's like there's what's what's the talker like even maybe it's like something that's like not going to be popular but but could he have come out with something that just creates

Annalise 41:32

creates conversation, that draws attention? I think a big thing of where they got a bunch of traditional media and they got a lot of eyeballs was the sign stuff. And I remember grilling Carter on that in the summer because I was just entertained because I saw the first sign and knew that Carter was behind that. Carter was

Zain 41:47

was going after, yeah, yeah.

Annalise 41:50

But yeah, I just don't, I

Annalise 41:52

also wonder and I don't want to get too much into the parties. I think we'll obviously know more on Tuesday, day but like do calgarians like the parties and i think the thesis that thesen came out with at the beginning was like this is the system that daniel smith has put in place i'm a lawyer i follow rules thus i am following the rules and this is our party but

Annalise 42:13

but i just don't know if that like worked when you had farkas davison and gondek who are not part of parties and when you had a lot of ward level and ward is a whole nother thing a lot of ward level candidates who's like their Their campaign lit and their big key message is independent, independent, independent, independent, right? And I think the initial polling showed Albertans didn't want parties. I think it's changed slightly. But then we're also in a time frame where like with the teacher strike, Daniel Smith is not like doing super well in Calgary right now. And so if the tie is like parties equal Daniel Smith, how do you get away from that? It's a

Zain 42:49

a tough pretzel when you're also the anti-Daniel Smith candidate or at least the one punching through on that. Yeah, being like, she said, I'm following her rules. It's like, why aren't you challenging her rules? Why aren't you like, you know, are all these other people are doing so? You know, I think for for Thiessen, the fact is, I think the best mayor question would have been very helpful to them. But as soon as people turn into pundits, and what I mean by that is they turn into people like you and I who talk about things like viability. As soon as voters turn into pundits, that's trouble when you're not one of the people that's showing viability through metrics like polling or momentum or other sort of congealed sort of metrics like that. And

Zain 43:26

And I think the other aspect of this election that I think may have influenced and may have impacted Thiessen the most, and I'm taking what you're saying and just repackaging in a slightly different way, is that in

Zain 43:36

in any election, the

Zain 43:38

the hyper engaged or the insiders, whatever you want to call them, right, or a combination of the two. I think insiders have more of a touch and feel, even know some of these people like people like you and I would be classified in that in the broadest sense. But that plus the hyper engaged influence what the

Zain 43:54

second or fourth tier of people. And I don't mean that as it is a tier of like anything other than engagement of the election, what they do and how they do it. But if those two groups, the insiders and the hyper engaged, are still either mealy mouthed or confused or in their text groups being like, fuck, what are we doing, folks? Like, what are we doing?

Zain 44:15

Then there is no broadcast signal for them. Not even I don't even like putting up an endorsement today. I, as an insider, am voting for like, I don't even mean that casually in conversation. How many times have you gotten asked around what you're doing? And I don't have a clear answer in the sense. I have a clear answer. I don't have a confident answer that'll lead to an outcome that is that that that answers the question that in the sense and if this Is and I use you and I as proxies because I don't mean exactly you and I but people like you and I if we're still Struggling to your earlier point then what hope does that have to send any formal informal network based signal? To to those around us around what to do how it's shaping up what's going on and I think one core ingredient missing in both cities in this election is that, and less so in Edmonton, because I think folks are starting to understand the task. It's a two-horse race for the most part, and that we've got to stop Cartmel if you're anywhere between, let's just say on the left and some folks on the center. That task is less clear here. That path is less clear here. I think Farkas, to your earlier description of who he's become and who he wants to be, makes that task a bit harder in terms of what folks are doing i think gondek with her history and and and perhaps a little bit of disappointment for some people makes that task harder and then thesen with all his promise right

Zain 45:36

right with all his promise and all his ability and maybe progressives not necessarily taking to the parties as much as they'd hoped and all those sort of things also

Zain 45:43

also makes that task harder but the fact is that that a lot of folks who should know what they're doing don't know what they're doing and we're on fucking friday well and

Annalise 45:52

and then that's right and then that's the the thing it's like do they do they come out do they come out to vote i think if i think if in the janet brown poll thesen

Annalise 45:59

thesen was at like 12 percent and i think he was at eight um i have it written down somewhere um but like if he was at like if he was a little bit higher i think it would make that argument of like third

Zain 46:13

third to first right

Zain 46:15

four to first yeah and

Annalise 46:16

and then which is a movie

Zain 46:16

movie that this place has seen before to your

Annalise 46:18

your point yeah and like to your point about like the influencer this This is where I also think, like, back

Annalise 46:23

back in the day, someone could have gone on Twitter and seen, like, oh, this person who I respect or this person who I think they know what they're talking about is, like, talking positively about this. And that's gone now. I would say Reddit, weirdly. Yes,

Annalise 46:36

Yes, I was going to

Zain 46:36

to say Reddit, too.

Annalise 46:37

In the same way that, like, four years ago, people would, like, send me links to people's tweets. I've been, like, every day, three or four, like, links, someone will send me to Reddit. And I'm like, okay, but who's writing this, right? Like, everything's anonymous. is this just like a ton of calgary party people or is it like i don't know yeah who's behind it it's not like it's not that like face and that name that you would see on twitter it

Zain 47:04

it is interesting that's a good point around the anonymity or like the perceived anonymity that reddit can can can instill well the most here's my summary of reddit conversations because reddit probably leans a bit more progressive in that sense of bubbles that you and i are probably more actively part of

Zain 47:20

Thiessen comes up more disproportionately than he does in the polling and

Zain 47:24

if I'm the Calgary party folks and if I'm Carter and Brian I'm like but Thiessen

Zain 47:29

Thiessen comes up and then every couple of comments later and once again your point around anonymity really speaks here but I can't support parties and

Zain 47:37

and that also right? and then it's just kind of start back at zero and it's like oh Gundak I guess and it's

Zain 47:45

it's like Thiessen I can't support parties And so there is a there there around the baggage Thiessen might be carrying. And Carter, in our debrief, regardless of result, can parade around and tell us we were wrong or, frankly, will parade around and tell us we were right. He'll parade around regardless. But there

Zain 48:02

there is – the Thiessen party thing is – and my perceived thing is it's a bit of a weight he's carrying right now. It might have been an asset. you carter may argue on the back end that it wouldn't have gotten him anywhere near where even the eight ten twelve percent he ends up with if there wasn't a party infrastructure he could make that argument i don't know if i'd buy it but it seems like thesen and the party seem to be a bit of an anchor right now yeah

Annalise 48:24

yeah i'm so i'm fascinated by it and i think again time will tell in three four days but like had you know did did the party help or hurt and would it have looked different and honestly the the actual infrastructure and maybe i've been brainwashed by talking to carter about this but like the party infrastructure is like you have your person and And then you have your 14 people or 13 for the Calgary party who then are like, you know, they're door knocking and they're having those conversations and they're sharing his face and they're sharing his name. Like you have all these proxies out there who are like, that makes sense. But you're like, if what you're starting at is that people don't like parties because parties equal Smith and people don't like Smith. Yeah.

Zain 49:01

I, you know, politics is one of those weird sports as you're aware of that. If you win, everything you did is considered celebrated and celebrated as golden. And if you lose, what a fucking shitty idea. In terms of the good work, both the Calgary Party and Better Edmonton, whatever you think of them, like that is an impressive undertaking, literally creating two political slates, branding them consistently, having those signs, those lits, those candidates. Recruiting

Annalise 49:25

Recruiting 14 candidates, even that in itself. There is a lot to

Zain 49:29

to be impressed with. Yeah,

Annalise 49:30

in a time. And it's not just because

Zain 49:31

because Stephen is our friend, but there's a lot to be impressed with there. I just don't know if it'll work. And

Zain 49:35

And Carter will have to defend a lot of those decisions. But there is a lot of good, interesting novel, I think novel is the right word, novel work being

Zain 49:43

being done here. So when we talk about things taking a step forward and a step backward, the party, as much as people may hate it, has actually produced quite an interesting level of political practitionership and craftsmanship that I think should be at least studied, maybe celebrated, but definitely studied. I think

Annalise 50:00

the recruitment aspect, like I, full disclosure, I think being a city councillor is not a great job. I think, like I did, I think it's, I think it's getting harder and harder to get people in that role. And so I think the recruitment and also having that kind of like campaign in a box. And I saw someone crunch, it must've been on Reddit someone sent me, but like crunch the numbers of how many female candidates. And the conclusion was basically like female candidates were more likely to run with a party because they were given the infrastructure. So I do think there's things like that, that accountability episode we can like learn from. But yeah, I just, I just question. And here's where you get into like, do the undecided show up and do people, what

Annalise 50:46

what are people feeling about parties in three days?

Zain 50:50

Let's, let's absorb that into what I want to kind of do as our scenario or scenarios, plural.

Zain 50:56

give me the most likely scenarios on election night for mayor we'll talk about council at the end of this thing but for mayor give me the most likely scenarios that we could see on election night or you know election day morning i

Annalise 51:08

i think this is all caveat that um davidson and thesen don't drop out this weekend because that would change everything if they if davidson was like hey i'm gonna get behind sharp or if thesen was like hey in order to beat sharp we got to get behind do you

Annalise 51:21

you know if those conversations

Zain 51:22

conversations are active or are you because no i wasn't even even thinking of that i'm

Annalise 51:25

i'm just stirring the pot

Annalise 51:26

i'm like do you know

Annalise 51:27

something no no no i'm just stirring i'm just stirring the pot i do think like if okay to the to the sharp davison conversation if

Annalise 51:34

if davison was not running i think sharp would be number one by a mile and if sharp was not running i think davison and farkas would be kind of like eking it out there i think davison in the race does change a lot um

Annalise 51:46

um okay so scenarios i think well like what's voter turnout gonna be right

Annalise 51:53

right Right. So last time I have, I think, I

Zain 51:56

I think you could, in my mind, one of the reasons I think scenarios are helpful is, let's say we go down scenario Gondek W, we might be able to comment on voter turnout and where the undecideds

Annalise 52:05

undecideds go based on

Zain 52:05

on those. And if we go scenario, like, that's why I'm kind of thinking like, give me, give me what, like I said, I'm actually kind of blind here. So I'm, I'm, I'm really curious to get a sense of where you're at with these and what you think viable scenarios are. And even if you want to add a most likely in your mind. I don't

Annalise 52:21

don't know Zane like I don't I would love I think I think it I think we're looking at a Farkas win a Gondek win or a Sharp win I think those are the three the three most realistic possibilities okay

Annalise 52:33

I think short of a new poll coming out today that shows like a huge Thiesen surge I think those are the three realistic possibilities I think in order for Farkas to win progressives need to determine that he is best to take on Sharp and in order for Gondek to win progressives who a lot of them were her voters last time need to determine that she is best to take on sharp and determine that like hey you know what maybe we haven't loved absolutely everything but like we're gonna give her another opportunity i was chatting with someone the other day and the language they use they're like i'm voting gondek they're like you know what i haven't loved everything she's done but i don't think she deserves being fired so i think in order for gondek to win you need like which it shouldn't

Annalise 53:15

shouldn't be as hard because those are the people that voted voted for her last time right and that's what's like so weird about this election is i think in order for farkas to win you need people who voted for gondek last time not farkas right they we both their names were on the ballot last time so you need people who voted for gondek to be like we have had such an issue that now we're voting for someone different and it's going to be the person that she beat last time like it's it's a weird it's a weird election very

Zain 53:43

very weird so a gondek So a Farkas win requires, you think, coalescence around him by people on the center and the left. Yeah,

Annalise 53:52

Yeah, I think his base is locked in, and I don't think he's taking that much from Sharper, Davison. This

Zain 53:59

This is what I'm curious. Did he rebuild his base from 21, or did people just follow the Jeremy personality, not care about ideology, and he started with that? Like, I know it's a hard question to ask, not being in on this campaign, but I'm curious. like is this a guy that like pretty much lost his entire base or did he come with something back to the table in 20 in 25 with a with a changed man sort of aspect to it i

Annalise 54:21

i think he has i think he and again i'm not like an expert on this i think he has i think some of his base are smith supporters and i think again in terms of him being in a tough box at a time when there's a teacher strike and people are not loving what smith is doing right now he can't be the one on attacking smith right because he's in this box um so i don't i i think his base has i mean i would love to see like data on this i think his base has changed i think some of his base is also like he's he's pulled some of that cbc crowd right who are like you know what people can change and i liked what he said on cbc when he was on the panel with nenshi um yeah i his his base is so interesting to me because it's not like black and white in the way that

Annalise 55:06

that others are as is evidence and he said even last night there was like a question at the end about um a

Annalise 55:13

a highlight of your campaign type thing and he talked about working with Darcy and Amanda he's like I'm so proud of the fact that like we've put these you know people who four years ago eight years ago it would have been unheard of that they were Fargo supporters they're now senior campaign people um but it's the question is like does he have enough people that move over and believe that he is a changed man so

Zain 55:37

so it's a wild wild um thing

Zain 55:40

thing if farkas wins based on a potentially a net new or largely net new coalition um

Zain 55:47

talk to me about

Annalise 55:48

that i'll just add one more thing about the farkas thing yesterday at the debate he kept kind of like holding up his campaign policies and i do if you if you actually like if you were to read campaign policies and not see whose name is on on the policies like also like

Zain 56:03

header out yeah i

Annalise 56:03

i think a lot of progressives would be on team farkas really

Annalise 56:08

i think so based on policies maybe i'm wrong tell me i'm wrong but like i think if you were to just blind read it i think people what

Annalise 56:15

what what he is saying people a lot of what he's saying people like agree with but then you have progressives who are like no i don't believe

Zain 56:22

believe that he's changed the trust delta is there what

Zain 56:25

what does a gondek win mean like what's that that scenario is also viable it's also it's all it seems as possible yeah as any of the other two what would if far if if gondek wins i'm sorry if gondek wins what would have needed to happen i

Zain 56:39

i guess is a way to ask you what would have happened or what would have needed to happen in your mind i

Zain 56:43

either on turnout on undecideds on the support of the other two leading contenders on supporter of someone like thesen like give me give me your sense of if a gondek win happens what other other conditional things have also happened in that i think

Annalise 56:54

think season supporters go to her and i think the progressives who are undecided who are like flirting with farkas go to her i think is what and and i think they'll like the daniel the anti daniel smith anti sonja sharp like it's like she needs to just lock in the people who again some of them were people who voted a lot of them were people who voted for her last time it

Zain 57:18

it is interesting to me that like if farkas is now considered one of the left or can have elements of left to him in terms of his base, that Gundick and Farkas didn't go after each other much earlier in order to like, totally make the case that, you know, this is your person to be the standard bearer, if it comes down to us versus a conservative. In this case, this is a scenario that in the simplest of terms, if you believe what Farkas stands for, it's two left wing candidates versus a right one at the top. And

Zain 57:47

And the vote split goes the other way here. It doesn't it doesn't have this is not this classic Alberta to right wing candidates, although the second one exists in Davison, his viability seems less. This could be a very fascinating to center to left wing center left candidates. And we can talk about Gondek's history. There'll be many people who argue with us around neither of these candidates being progressive because

Zain 58:09

of where Gondek came in years ago as a counselor, as a developer candidate and has maybe made a political sort of shift in her. OK, sure. I want to acknowledge it for this case. case i want to make it extremely simplistic that you could have two left or perceived left candidates going against a right-wing one and the right-wing one comes through the middle well

Annalise 58:26

well that okay i almost feel like maybe i'm gonna regret saying this i almost feel like a gondek win is like the most plausible for what has been such like a boring election right back to what we talked about at the very beginning right this boring seinfeld election where you have an incumbent mayor right yeah because like traditionally

Annalise 58:45

traditionally traditionally this should be a boring election because you have an incumbent mayor who's running for a second term right like pull up all the stats on people

Annalise 58:53

people who are running for a second term right

Annalise 58:55

right they blow people out of the water so like it's it's been exciting in the sense that that is not happening but i almost feel like just based on what this election has been like that would be the most the most fitting conclusion is like look look, she beat the same two people who ran against her last time. We reject parties four more years.

Zain 59:15

The Sharp scenario. Give me the what other conditional things would have needed to happen if Sonia Sharp is mayor of Calgary as of Monday night.

Annalise 59:23

I think Davidson supporters need to go to Sharp. And I don't, Davidson

Annalise 59:27

Davidson supporters are really like, they love him. They're not giving up the

Zain 59:32

the fight, it seems like.

Zain 59:34

piling in from former conservatives.

Annalise 59:36

conservatives. They love him. and like he's he he has been so just like comfortable and funny on

Annalise 59:43

on the debate stage and i think some of it is just because like he doesn't care he's

Zain 59:47

he's got nothing to lose yeah

Zain 59:48

he's literally maybe here on monday night he's

Annalise 59:49

he's like i was i was chatting with someone after yesterday who was like you know like i would just love to grab a beer with him they're like if i didn't know anything about his policies i didn't know anything about who he is he's like by far the most likable i would love to grab yeah

Annalise 1:00:02

yeah i would love to grab a beer with him and so i think in order for sharp to kind of come up the middle to your point that being said sharp has good momentum sharp has money in order for her to come up the middle i do think she needs to take a little bit from davison and i guess fark is but like i don't think theson and gondek supporters are going to her yeah

Zain 1:00:29

here here's here's a question that that that you can take any way you want but i think it's worthy of asking who ends up as a regardless of these outcomes in these scenarios who ends up the biggest winner of monday night and who ends up the biggest loser of monday night and

Zain 1:00:42

and i don't even just mean from who's running i'm just kind of getting a sense from okay even even as the broadest version of that question as you want to take well

Annalise 1:00:50

well i think the thing that like we need to address that people often don't is like the mayor is one vote right and it's like the mayor is like like cheerleader in like the face of calgary and like will lead us for the next four like exceedingly important years but they're one vote so to go off of those scenarios we were just talking about like if sonja sharp wins but then and i think there's six incumbents running again

Zain 1:01:18

out of what is it 15 or 14 14 yeah

Annalise 1:01:20

yeah so i think there's i think there's six incumbents and three of them shabu mclean and wong are with um communities first but like if like i think that i think the council so you're gonna have that's a ton of turnover right and it's like being a counselor is a really really hard job and it's like it takes a couple years if not two to three years to even understand what you're doing and how the city works and all of that so you're gonna have um a lot of new faces around the table and i think it depends it depends what council looks like right like if if gondek wins again and then the council itself is super conservative that's going to be a super different situation than if sharp wins and the council's more progressive right like it they're

Annalise 1:02:06

they're they're one vote and i think this is the thing it's like the thought with the parties was like whoever wins mayor brings all these people who they know will vote alongside them with them and i just don't know if that is what's going to happen been the

Zain 1:02:21

the the parties may not have actually functionally kind of created slates that kind of you know the the the dream of the party was that it would have discipline

Zain 1:02:28

discipline in the campaign discipline and governance and that does not seem to be the case with with the calgary party or even where communities first might be headed in terms of their their outcomes here also

Annalise 1:02:37

also that they have to disband after the election which

Annalise 1:02:40

which like i learned i learned that lies with carter in a summer episode and it just like blew my mind like you're like well then what's what's the point and i say i do think actually the calgary party has been framing that for insiders who are anti-party they're like yeah we are too we're following the rules we got a disband after the

Annalise 1:02:58

the election but like then what's what's the point yeah

Zain 1:03:03

yeah it it does i mean money was the point and allowed a financial which

Annalise 1:03:07

which but but even that there hasn't that okay that was the point and maybe that worked in edmonton but like in calgary they're all pretty like close to each other in terms of the money advantage

Zain 1:03:17

advantage is not paid I agree. I agree. It seems like when you look at some of the disclosures, that seems to be the case. Now we'll find out more.

Annalise 1:03:22

Yeah. But I like how you've answered this.

Zain 1:03:24

this. Let's close out here, which is I don't want to go through every council race, but I replayed the story for Henderson the other day in 2017. I was so focused on the mayor's race. And of course, this was like every other race. We hit all of council, whatever. And as I look up on the screen on that night in 2017, I'm like, oh, thank God. And then she won. We get to celebrate. Oh, what happened to any of the councils? Every single incumbent that ran won. on

Zain 1:03:48

do you think do you think that story plays out here again in calgary uh just based on the simple sleepiness uh of this election or do you feel like any of the incumbents are at real threat um and what what are you kind of as

Zain 1:04:00

as you've also mentioned earlier in this episode this independence streak seems to be one of those driving questions or at least seems to be a not a deciding or driving question maybe that's too much but seems to be a factor of some kind in some of these races so just your broader thoughts on council council incumbents and where we might land with a few of these things or any notable things you find fascinating on your end?

Annalise 1:04:20

Yeah, I think in terms of incumbents, and I have them written down here, I think Chabot and McLean, the

Annalise 1:04:26

the easy conservative wards where they always elect a conservative. Terry Wong in Seven is interesting. Maybe I'm biased here because I live in Seven and I'm in a Ward Seven bubble.

Annalise 1:04:35

But I do think he's getting a run for his money and he kind of has an interesting strategy in platforming his seemingly main. opponent um but maybe i'm just wishful thinking it's seven um raj

Annalise 1:04:51

raj and winus i don't have a good read on those areas i think the incumbent advantage would likely help them penner and 11 announced really late right and i don't again i don't know 11 super well i'm kind of in like a inner city um bubble but she she announced that she was running again for recently

Annalise 1:05:10

recently like not not not that long ago, but, and I think, okay, let's say five of the six incumbents or six of the six. I actually don't think that matters that much because you have, you need to count to eight, right? Like you need, you need the eight. So, so where, where, who, who are the other, who are the new faces around the table? Right. Who are the new seven people and what are they like and, and what do they believe in and are they part of a party? Are they not part of a party?

Zain 1:05:39

Yeah. It's, it's going to be fascinating to see. who has the best governance or easiest governance pathway, who has the worst governance pathway, what some of these new faces look like, what those previews of the future look like. Is there a case where the Calgary party produces one or two folks without a mayor's chair? Is there any... I mean, here's the thing. The future of the parties, I mean, we can spend hours discussing, but let's be clear. They have to disband. And if they want to start up again, that's going to be a new thing. But the question is, they may not even be part of the next election. So this could be like literally a one and done where that Calgary party name, brand, website, logo, the flag that they've wrapped themselves around is so temporary that it may never see the light of day again. And same for the Edmonton sort of version of these brands. And same for Communities First. This

Zain 1:06:23

is not a thing that we're going to associate. I mean, people are not associating candidates with brands as aggressively other than just to be like, you're part of a party and I don't like that. But they're not associating themselves with these brands while voting for them. I think the likelihood of them doing so is significantly less even when those parties leave and be like, I remember that was our community's first candidate that's doing that. And that's the reason why they're doing X, Y, and Z. I

Zain 1:06:47

I want to wrap up here with any final thoughts you may have. We've talked almost exclusively about the mayor's race. We talked a bit about council. We talked about the ballot box question, the polling, the process,

Zain 1:06:57

some scenarios we might see on Monday night. I'm not going to ask you for a prediction because it does genuinely seem close. But if you want to give one, you can. But any final thoughts, Annalise, as we wrap up? yeah

Annalise 1:07:06

yeah i'm not gonna make a prediction maybe there'll be some drama this week insane maybe like maybe something crazy we'll have them this weekend no i don't i don't um

Annalise 1:07:16

um no i i i'm gonna be looking at the turnout right like i think i think turnout will be really really interesting do are

Annalise 1:07:24

are people coming out do they care um we had 46 last time i i think turnout will be quite low like in the 30s um

Annalise 1:07:36

um yeah that's i will state that prediction i think turnout will be low but maybe not maybe people will like coalesce this

Annalise 1:07:46

this weekend and the the undecideds will decide and they'll share it with their networks and and but yeah no i think 40 so the 2017 was the highest in 40 years that was 58 but that was that

Annalise 1:07:59

that and as you know like people came out and supported nancy because there was some polls that made it look really really close the

Zain 1:08:07

the threat looks significant that's right

Annalise 1:08:09

right and so it was like there was something kind of like exciting and motivating if there's nothing i mean short of like a new poll coming out today that shows sharp 10 points ahead i don't

Annalise 1:08:18

don't know how you motivate all of these undecideds to come out so if we're dealing with 46 last time in like the covet election i think it's going to be in the 30s which is like like abysmal, like that's, that's bad. That's not good. And then I think whoever, to your point at the beginning about like how big their mandate is going to be, whoever's in the mayor's chair is not going to have a huge mandate. They're going to have like, there's a lot of big things that need to happen in the next four years. And they're going to have a team that may or may not, you know, be, be with them. So buckle

Annalise 1:08:50

buckle up. I think it's going to be a really interesting four years.

Zain 1:08:54

Four years and a very interesting election night and a day after election morning. You can see Annalise on Global. And that is a wrap on episode 1888 of The Strategist. My name is Zane Velji, with me as always, Annalise

SPEAKER_01 1:09:06

Annalise Klingbeil, and we will see you next time.

Transcript