Transcript
Zain
0:02
This is a strategist episode 1887. My name is Zain Velji with me. As always, he's always been here. He's been here the whole time. And we just wouldn't let him speak in certain episodes. Chris Henderson. How are you, sir?
SPEAKER_01
0:15
I'm very well, Zain. How are you doing? good man good listen
Zain
0:17
listen um we have uh we've unmuted the mic we figured out the system haxum has uh done what he's needed to to make this possible uh to let you speak and we're sorry for the uh for the fact that um we didn't get to capture any of your insights the last uh 25 episodes really sorry about that
SPEAKER_01
0:34
that oh yeah sorry it's no problem i i
SPEAKER_01
0:37
should have known but the light was never on yeah
Zain
0:39
yeah that's fine it's it's
SPEAKER_01
0:41
and then you never said you never said anything i I thought I was doing a great job.
Zain
0:43
Yeah, no, you weren't.
Zain
0:46
Here we are. I want to talk to you about your specialty, what I consider your specialty. You could tell me otherwise, actually, as we get started here. We're doing back-to-back episodes with you tonight and with Annalise tomorrow morning to talk about, while we are a national podcast, we do have a lot of listeners in our home province of Alberta. And you are, I think, the number one get to talk about municipal politics in Edmonton. We're starting with Edmonton tonight. night we'll talk to annalise tomorrow to talk about um the calgary municipal so
Zain
1:17
so i have no agenda i have also i'm also a calgarian begrudgingly talking about edmonton politics even though some of it like osmosis travels down the highway and i understand some of it so start with me anywhere you want and we'll go from there and of course we'll get to your predictions on what you think happens election night like what the storylines have been or have not been has this election been been as sleepy as the one that we're observing in calgary has it not been sleepy in the in beyond the top line sort of thing so give me start start where you want to start and we'll go from there but i want to tease out for our listeners in anticipation of what monday night what they might expect what they have seen give them some sort of talking points as cocktail chatter when they talk to their friends and family on tuesday morning uh to act like the most fucking rock stars ours in there in the municipal world in edmonton so
SPEAKER_01
2:07
in edmonton right now we have like we we had a very sleepy race okay um just generally um uh
SPEAKER_01
2:17
uh people edmontonians are who are usually a bit late to the to
SPEAKER_01
2:22
to the election they usually sort of tune in in the third or maybe last week of september really really haven't been tuning into this election generally we're expecting a pretty low turnout here but
SPEAKER_01
2:33
but which is a bit of a shame because
SPEAKER_01
2:36
because the point that we're at right now is that we are probably in the closest like edmonton doesn't have
SPEAKER_01
2:44
mean they all like they seem sort of close
SPEAKER_01
2:47
close at points but and then they what just
Zain
2:49
someone just takes over
SPEAKER_01
2:51
yeah so like talk
Zain
2:52
talk to me about like your race like talk to me about like ivison because from watching from calgary that's what's close like we thought it was close now the outcome was it but it seemed like it was extremely close yeah
SPEAKER_01
3:02
yeah i mean i think the i think
SPEAKER_01
3:05
think a lot of observers didn't feel that one was going to be close toward the end um
SPEAKER_01
3:10
and and and it wasn't it was a i
SPEAKER_01
3:13
i think that don won He won that election in 2013 by 45
SPEAKER_01
3:19
45 points, and he won the 2017 election by more than 60 points. And so he last time won by 20 points, and that was close
SPEAKER_01
3:32
close-ish. But the only close elections we've had in the last 30 years have been in 1995, which was a real nail-biter, and
SPEAKER_01
3:41
and 2004 which was
Zain
3:44
slightly unexpected like one of the unexpected results yeah it was mandel right so
SPEAKER_01
3:48
so mandel in 2004 and then bill smith who beat jan
SPEAKER_01
3:51
jan reimer by 2000
SPEAKER_01
3:53
2000 and some votes like you know it was like 34 to 30 34.08 to 34.02 it was like it was like nothing um so so we don't we We don't have nail... Maybe
SPEAKER_01
4:08
we have competitive races. We often do have competitive races, but we don't have nail biters. And this one is
SPEAKER_01
4:16
a nail biter. I've been thinking... I can't remember if anybody... If
SPEAKER_01
4:23
If somebody in the Discord
SPEAKER_01
4:24
Discord wants to identify the film for me. There's this movie I remember watching when I was a kid.
SPEAKER_01
4:31
And in the movie,
SPEAKER_01
4:33
there was a horse race. and
SPEAKER_01
4:35
this one horse wins because it had the worst teeth and the teeth crossed the photo finish first. You
Zain
4:45
may not get this if you don't listen to the podcast, Chris. The movie's Dave. The movie's called Dave.
SPEAKER_01
4:51
Yeah, every movie is Dave.
Zain
4:54
We don't say that. This one is Dave. This one is
Zain
4:57
definitely Dave. Yeah, this one is definitely not Dave. This one is Dave.
SPEAKER_01
5:00
But there's a similar movie that has that similar premise but it it might just be like a candidate here like i'm kind of expecting maybe
SPEAKER_01
5:10
maybe a 31 28 27 7 and then everybody else seven uh
SPEAKER_01
5:16
uh result here potentially jesus so you also think like
Zain
5:19
like like calgary that's a preview where my head's at in calgary you think this is going to be a like a significantly sub 50 mandate for whoever wins i
SPEAKER_01
5:29
i think i definitely think no matter no matter what
Zain
5:31
can't see i i think
Zain
5:32
even my best projections here put
SPEAKER_01
5:34
put it in the 40s that's good
SPEAKER_01
5:35
good yeah it gets in the low 40s here okay
Zain
5:39
i mean but so he got in so
Zain
5:41
so he got i think 45 last time which was like you know we don't most
SPEAKER_01
5:46
most most mayors in edmonton get except in 2004 in 1995 most mayors get 50
Zain
5:55
so so the simplest question is to me at least the most obvious question and and maybe not not so simple to answer is okay
Zain
6:01
okay why do we have a close race this time you're you this is not part of your culture this is this is not a why is it close is it is it because people who weren't supposed to be good are good is the people who are supposed to be bad or are underperformed like give me give me like a sense of the beats and maybe let's start naming names in a sense at least on the mayoral and then we can get to you know what the ballot box question is what's happening here but why do you think it's it's close this time it's interesting it's sleepy sleepy but it's close it's it's
SPEAKER_01
6:29
it's sleepy but it's close and there was a lot of um
SPEAKER_01
6:34
through to the proof to the federal election and in april there was a lot of questions about
SPEAKER_01
6:42
what the field was even going to be um
SPEAKER_01
6:45
you know a lot of people thought that so he wouldn't would run again and then maybe he wouldn't run again and i
SPEAKER_01
6:51
i mean tim cartnell who is the Well, the
SPEAKER_01
6:53
the kid who's been in this for the longest announced in November. Yeah.
SPEAKER_01
6:57
So everybody knew that whoever was going to be running was going to be running against him.
SPEAKER_01
7:02
But he – and
SPEAKER_01
7:06
and then Soggy definitively dropped out when he ran from the Fed. Yeah. And that left a big hole
SPEAKER_01
7:17
And people, I think, who were previously not prepared – I
SPEAKER_01
7:21
don't think Andrew Knack was planning on running for mayor until he understood that Soapy was going to be out of the way. Yep.
SPEAKER_01
7:28
I don't think Michael Walters was planning on running for mayor until he felt like he saw a pretty nice spot in the election that someone needed to fill.
SPEAKER_01
7:40
And so the field has come together really
SPEAKER_01
7:44
um uh even even i think uh reen jaffer like he's not gonna he's not gonna win yeah
SPEAKER_01
7:52
you know there i heard rumors about it for months and months and months and then it sort of he eventually kind of showed up uh everyone's been pretty casual about when they decided to get into this race and um and so you haven't had that the normal that kind of concentrated
SPEAKER_01
8:09
concentrated back and forth where you know candidates announced sort of you know and
SPEAKER_01
8:14
and like you know one candidate announces well end of may one candidate announces at the uh
SPEAKER_01
8:19
uh the beginning of june and one candidate announces in the middle of june and then they kind of go at each other for for for 90 90
SPEAKER_01
8:25
90 days 120 days until election day and it's like there's there's just been there's been just not much of a narrative here uh and most of the news stories and this you know like the biggest news story probably about any of the candidates was when Tim Cartmell missed a vote on infill, which is
SPEAKER_01
8:48
is an influential issue, at
SPEAKER_01
8:52
at least on this council. So, you
SPEAKER_01
8:54
you know, like, there just hasn't been a lot to report on with this. Also, every
SPEAKER_01
9:00
every election, our media environment
SPEAKER_01
9:02
environment becomes more fragmented. like there you know
SPEAKER_01
9:05
know you might get two
SPEAKER_01
9:09
two two stories a week really in the in like the paper of record around here about what's going on in the election and and
SPEAKER_01
9:15
and uh more now but like throughout the uh throughout
SPEAKER_01
9:19
throughout the summer there was just no coverage of anything so people
SPEAKER_01
9:22
people just didn't really tune in until until
SPEAKER_01
9:25
until very late and i think i think they are tuning in this week um
SPEAKER_01
9:29
um which is i think good Good for some campaigns and not good for others, but it's
SPEAKER_01
9:36
going to be a nail-biter. I think whoever wins is going to win with a three
SPEAKER_01
9:41
three-point lead and less than 35% of the vote.
Zain
9:45
I want to take advantage of your campaign practitioner experience alongside the fact
Zain
9:50
this is a very tight election, but I want to do that in a second. I want to do that near the end of this thing where we can kind of talk about what sort of effort is needed, what the final days and the short strokes of a campaign. specifically municipal, specifically Edmonton municipal look like? There's no one that I know that will know that better than you. But before we go there, talk to me about a few things that I've been curious about on
Zain
10:10
the mayoral side, and then we'll get to council as well, as I mentioned. So Sohi says, no, I'm out, right? He says, I'm picking up the federal seat. And while he says that, he's like, to be clear, I'm not going to run for mayor. Okay.
Zain
10:22
I've got a question on the progressive side, which is, is there a progressive primary to reprise Sohi? And of course, there's no official one but what was your intel telling you was it was there a lot of people thinking of running or did knack by default fill that role was there enthusiasm to kind of fill that sort of progressive hole so to speak i want to kind of understand how knack came about the genesis story of knack as like the guy to kind of represent and and how were people slow or fast to embrace that give me that sort of broader story on the progressive side because i'm curious and i've I've got a similar Cartmel question for you when he announced much earlier on in November.
SPEAKER_01
11:00
Yeah, I think that Andrew
SPEAKER_01
11:03
Andrew Knack was ready to just move on to the next phase of whatever he was moving on to. I think he felt like he had had a pretty good council career and that he
SPEAKER_01
11:15
he would split a vote. there was there's probably not much of a uh a point of running against sitting mayor hamerjeet so he uh whether no matter how strong hamerjeet so he uh was people will tell you that he wouldn't have won re-election i'm not i'm not so sure about that um
SPEAKER_01
11:35
um but you think so he would have had a
Zain
11:37
a path especially now seeing where we are like four days away you think so he would have had a path here
SPEAKER_01
11:44
think that if you have been i think that maybe some people have not not loved amarjeet so he's termed as mayor i think it's been a rough time for for uh for edmonton generally i don't think that necessarily falls on so he directly as mayor but mahamarjeet so he's magic uh is that he has has been a very good guy
SPEAKER_01
12:07
guy to people for 30 years. And
SPEAKER_01
12:10
And he has built up a level of political capital with a lot of very normal people that
SPEAKER_01
12:18
you cannot replicate in an election cycle, right?
SPEAKER_01
12:21
right? He has just been a good dude to so many people for so long that
SPEAKER_01
12:29
he just comes with 100,000 votes in his pocket or 50
SPEAKER_01
12:33
50,000 votes in his pocket or whatever it is. Just by appearing on the ballot.
SPEAKER_01
12:38
Yeah, people just like
SPEAKER_01
12:39
like him. And I think there's a bit of a narrative that this council or Amarjeet
SPEAKER_01
12:45
Amarjeet Sohi has not had a great turn. I think that's kind of inside baseball for people like you and I to hear about. But I think if you own a landscaping company in Ellerslie, you
SPEAKER_01
13:03
you might really like Amarjeet Sohi. You might be proud of the chance
SPEAKER_01
13:08
chance to re-elect the first time to re-elect a South Asian mayor. I think that he would have had some reasonable juice going into this election. He might have lost, but I
SPEAKER_01
13:25
never have counted him out. And
Zain
13:26
And I think, and this is obviously not a perfect parallel, well but jyoti gandak still in the game in calgary you
Zain
13:32
you know and if she's probably was more down and out than so he has it related to south asian incumbents if we want to put that final point on it but straight up right like but but you know the jyoti gandak literally had a fucking recall petition and here she is flirting with first and second in the polls yeah
SPEAKER_01
13:49
yeah i'm like but i feel like sometimes the most calgary thing to do is to just skirt a right go from third
SPEAKER_01
13:57
to first, skirting up the middle. Yeah,
SPEAKER_01
13:59
I mean, that's the
Zain
14:00
the Menchie story, that's arguably the Bronconi story, it's been the story for, in certain cases, I guess it was the Mandel story, and that close one in 04, which is partially an Edmonton thing to do. Okay, so so he, like, so he, and and before
Zain
14:13
before I get to, like, talk to me about the, and
Zain
14:16
and I'm talking about NAC, but I'm almost talking about the broader sort of progressive movement. Like, the 21 council you guys elected was seen as being more progressive. Tell me if I'm wrong. With Sohi at the helm, with counselors like Janz and others, do you feel like, you know, when Sohi left or when Knack was trying to, and, you know, whoever's trying to take his place, Knack or others, that there was a bit of a stain on progressivism and people were chilling to wanting to fill that hole? Or was there enthusiasm to kind of say, if
Zain
14:44
if I do this, I
SPEAKER_01
14:50
i think that people
SPEAKER_01
14:51
people look at this looked
SPEAKER_01
14:53
at this council is maybe just a little bit less pragmatic than a normal council i'm not sure people have identified it as like a loony left council interesting
Zain
14:59
interesting so that that's
SPEAKER_01
15:00
that's not been the label
SPEAKER_01
15:03
i i mean i i don't know like again there's a there's a difference between
Zain
15:05
between people that are sort of involved in yes the
SPEAKER_01
15:09
the committee the committees and groups and and
SPEAKER_01
15:12
like clubs at the city and then there are people
SPEAKER_01
15:18
you want to be mayor of edmonton you got to get between 90 000 and 140 000 votes
SPEAKER_01
15:24
uh that's a lot of people out on the out on the edge of the city and and people that never go downtown and like
SPEAKER_01
15:31
like you got to convince a lot of very normal people that you're the an electable person yeah
SPEAKER_01
15:36
um so so and i don't think that those people necessarily think in like left right starkly political terms and yeah i think they've seen maybe scratched their head in a few things this this council's done but they've also you know like when they email ashley salvador and uh and board matey she emails them back and
SPEAKER_01
15:56
i think they care about that more than whether
SPEAKER_01
16:00
whether she's sort Sort of like an NDP coded candidate or whether she is or not. So
SPEAKER_01
16:05
of a defining issue. Okay.
Zain
16:06
Okay. So take me to the political genesis story of NAC in this cycle. Does he emerge as the only one or is there others that wanted that mantle? Or do you feel like there's others even on the final ballot that kind of are trying to carry that mantle a bit? And I tip at Walters to kind of get a sense of where he's standing.
SPEAKER_01
16:24
mean i think knack was the i
SPEAKER_01
16:28
think knack presented himself as sort of the most natural like
SPEAKER_01
16:31
like choice for the kind of people that get elected mayor in edmonton yeah he's he's
SPEAKER_01
16:38
really identifiably left he's not really identifiably right like on on absolutely everything he's
SPEAKER_01
16:45
he's you know he's one of these people that likes to show up and and
SPEAKER_01
16:49
and listen to as many many people as he can and uh
SPEAKER_01
16:51
uh but i don't think that there was a but he but he's undoubtedly a little more progressive than like
SPEAKER_01
16:56
like if i had to put him on a place on the on the on the spectrum i put him grabbing a progressive spot but
SPEAKER_01
17:02
but i don't think anyone was fighting him for that spot i
SPEAKER_01
17:04
i don't really know if anybody really wanted to be mayor i
SPEAKER_01
17:09
think that it like you know i think it is i think being on city council in any major city uh big medium size or big city is a shitty job a really shitty job right now and
SPEAKER_01
17:22
and i and i'm not sure that a whole lot of people wanted to want to take that job like virtually nobody from the private sector wanted to take that job yeah
SPEAKER_01
17:30
yeah and and so it's you're left to sort of you're
SPEAKER_01
17:32
you're left with sort of other counselors and people who used to be counselors isn't
Zain
17:36
isn't isn't that interesting though i think that's such a unique
Zain
17:39
that that no like outside of this omar muhammad who i want to talk about who's the independent pediatric dentist who's kind of like quit his business to run for mayor. Seems like a quasi-meme candidate, but is getting double digits, low double digits in some of these polls and is starting to, you know, who knows where his vote cratered to or where his vote exists? There's an interesting sort of question I have for you there. But your insight regarding, A, the class, right? So let me just walk folks through, right? You got Andrew Dacko you've mentioned. He's the incumbent councillors since 2013. Cartmel, also an incumbent incumbent counselor. He's also representing a political party, which we'll get to in a second from 2017. And then you said formers. That's right. Former counselor,
Zain
18:22
Michael Walters, former Ward 7 counselor, Tony Caterina, former MP, Raheem Jaffer. And then, of course, the aforementioned Omar Mohamed, the independence. That's your list, folks. To
Zain
18:32
no one said, it's a buttoned up business time, former chamber chair stepping up. I don't have a name I'm just kind of making that sort of general composite profile. None of those people said it's time for me to kind of do it. So I think that's a very unique insight. But I also think the other one is that no
Zain
18:49
no one wants to be mayor. And I feel like that's similar to what's happening in Calgary here too. Carter kind of put it in a different way. She's like, no one is running to win.
Zain
18:56
And if no one is seeming like running to win, I wonder if that's why we also have a sleepy election. Not just because the field was gelled late or just because, you know, people were deciding to see what Sohi did or because like name recognition is so hard to get between media. All of those things are true.
Zain
19:12
But my theory is also in addition, just to get you to consider this, is that people want you to want them in a sense, right? Like people want you to show that you care for them. And if you have a race where a lot of people are
Zain
19:25
are like, you know, running for mayor, but not like running for mayor, not like aggressively wanting to be mayor with a hopeful, propositional, exciting future message, I think the electorate kind of gets that message too and acts accordingly. And tell me if there's holes in that theory, I acknowledge, but react to that theory for a second.
SPEAKER_01
19:48
so i think maybe this election is is the shape that it's in like i think i think you're onto something there but i think the the main reason that it's in the shape that it's in is because there's almost no ballot question yeah
Zain
20:02
yeah let's i want to talk about
SPEAKER_01
20:03
about like there's not really a like not really a strong identifiable not all the candidates are like i'm
SPEAKER_01
20:09
i'm sure i'll get a bunch of text messages from the candidates campaign manager saying like what the fuck are you talking no it's
Zain
20:14
it's about the province
Zain
20:14
province or it's about infills or whatever yeah yeah for
SPEAKER_01
20:21
it's it's not that there's no ballot question but there also there's nothing really for
SPEAKER_01
20:28
us to respond to like there's no there's no challenge really facing them like eggs not existential but there's no like unique challenge really facing us that we want to respond to so let me let me take you through that just a bit yeah
SPEAKER_01
20:42
2021 ever so he gets elected on the tail end of i think what people forget uh
SPEAKER_01
20:50
uh as being i think the second wave of covid which was worse
Zain
20:53
worse than the first like i
SPEAKER_01
20:55
i mean i you know people were not knocking on doors it was and
SPEAKER_01
20:59
and you know certainly if they were knocking on doors people weren't answering them people were wearing masks it was like it was a it was a it was a difficult time and i think people were frightened and i think people wanted a mayor that was going to be um it was going to be more socially
SPEAKER_01
21:15
socially conscious and conscious uh conscious about what he or what they were uh how they were going to run the city and i think it was an easy way to turn to ever jade sohi i truly believe that uh you know for all
SPEAKER_01
21:32
for some of the criticism that ever jade so he got i think he was the right mayor for this term i I think that Louis Edmonton would be a more cynical and a less compassionate place if it worked for him. But he really, because he really gives a shit about everybody and making sure that people that are kind of often ignored are included in the process or are at least thought about by somebody at City Hall. I think that's what we needed in 2021. In 2023, it was
SPEAKER_01
22:00
was Don versus Karen Livovici, really. And when you look back on it, karen
SPEAKER_01
22:05
karen levici was a very good candidate a very good counselor and in 2010 if she had run for mayor she very well may have been elected but in 2013 edmonton was just picking up it's like that
SPEAKER_01
22:17
that you know like we were really kind of like in a moment there and we were becoming like that was kind of our moment that we were becoming like a big city where where things were really happening and i think people wanted people had to look at they looked at the electorate and they figured figured well i want the like the face of a new generation so to speak to be the the mayor of this like new new city that you know that's about to have a moment uh
SPEAKER_01
22:43
uh stephen mandel was a really interesting uh choice because i think it was sort of the genesis of like the the uh the
SPEAKER_01
22:52
the sort of the the larval stage of the of the ivison win was you
SPEAKER_01
22:57
you know somebody that was gonna that
SPEAKER_01
22:59
that uh was tired of of mediocrity right
SPEAKER_01
23:03
or was tired of boosterism there you know somebody that was a bit you
SPEAKER_01
23:07
you know a bit real a bit more gritty and so that people elected steven mandel um
SPEAKER_01
23:11
um you know like they had a choice between mandel or bill smith who was like by all means like a pretty like
SPEAKER_01
23:19
like pretty panting candidate and then mike nickel who was like the city's broken and everything sucks well but you know mandel said hey man like we can build some stuff here like
SPEAKER_01
23:29
like let's stop fucking around and let's build some stuff and some people like steve mandel he's a very successful mayor
SPEAKER_01
23:35
he brought edmonton to a point where they were having a moment then they decided great we have a moment let's let's uh let's
SPEAKER_01
23:43
hire don ivison to be mayor and then when they got to a point where we
SPEAKER_01
23:47
we were in some like compassionate
SPEAKER_01
23:49
compassionate trouble they hired energy soki and there's just nothing like that in
SPEAKER_01
23:54
in this election right
SPEAKER_01
23:56
right like people are upset about things but they're not There's not a challenge
SPEAKER_01
24:01
challenge to respond to here. Do you feel like there
Zain
24:07
meat on the table or was there meat on the bone, I guess? Or was there a chance
Zain
24:13
chance for someone to engineer that question in this election?
Zain
24:19
is, those questions can be engineered, of course, ballot box questions. But also
Zain
24:25
also give me a sense of where Edmonton's headspace is at. Like, what do we need to know about Edmonton, like, political culture? I appreciate the lesson around the lack of close races. But, you know, one aspect of Calgary political culture that I know is that we often elect mayors to respond to what's happening at the provincial level.
SPEAKER_01
24:40
More liberal, a little bit more pragmatic, a little bit more of a surprise,
Zain
24:42
at least when you know Calgary, the cliche that, oh, this person could be mayor. We've had that so many times in a row that, like, Nenshi was an extension of that. He wasn't the definition of it. Right. So what do I need to know about the Edmonton political culture here? like do you guys vote on big things can you vote on like can you have was there ever a chance that this was going to be an infill election like i know some people trying to engineer it as such but was it ever a chance that was going to be it like give me give me a sense of what i need to know there well
Zain
25:09
well i think if you ask certain
SPEAKER_01
25:11
certain people again like that kind of like people
SPEAKER_01
25:15
what the election is
SPEAKER_01
25:18
or people that own a business downtown that
SPEAKER_01
25:21
that like a lot of them will say this is an infill election and that is a very like i said i called it an influential topic earlier because it's an influential topic but it's not necessarily an important one like 200
SPEAKER_01
25:32
200 000 people have arrived in the city in the last four years and most of them don't live in a neighborhood that's having infill problems right
SPEAKER_01
25:42
right it's just like it it's really important to a series of neighborhoods it's like the number one issue and in a bunch of neighborhoods and it's a bunch of neighborhoods where a lot of people with microphones and and like and influence live and and that's
Zain
25:54
that's that's great like that that's fine it's not it's
SPEAKER_01
25:57
it's not not an issue there but it's just i don't think really a really significant city-wide issue uh any more than like 15 minute cities are so
SPEAKER_01
26:07
so but the political culture here i think is
SPEAKER_01
26:13
i would say and when
SPEAKER_01
26:15
when we like we don't we don't necessarily we don't uh hire
SPEAKER_01
26:19
hire or sorry we don't elect mayors to fight the province we
SPEAKER_01
26:23
we want to see that you've got skills
Zain
26:25
skills to do that but i would say that edmontonians
SPEAKER_01
26:29
tend to vote for the
SPEAKER_01
26:35
and i might you know i think don might kill me for saying this but uh
SPEAKER_01
26:44
mildly ambitious mildly sticks out yeah like
SPEAKER_01
26:46
like like they want you to have some ambition but they don't want you like they don't like we don't respond well to crazy promises we don't respond well to i can fix everything uh i think what we they respond well to is what mac is he's actually saying in this election union's final stretch which is that edmonton is a great city yeah
SPEAKER_01
27:06
and it it can be better we
SPEAKER_01
27:08
we can make it better whereas i think cartmel
SPEAKER_01
27:11
cartmel and i think maybe increasingly walters certainly Carmel is saying the city's broken and I can fix it and
SPEAKER_01
27:18
I don't think people respond well to that and I think Michael Walters' message is a little bit more nuanced than that I think he's saying there
SPEAKER_01
27:30
there are some persistent issues here and I've got a
SPEAKER_01
27:34
a proven track record of how I'm addressing those issues and
SPEAKER_01
27:38
and if I'm given an opportunity to be mayor I can do even better uh and then uh you know i think regime jaffer's campaign is like edmonton sucks and let's
SPEAKER_01
27:49
let's like you know let's go back like it's back to basics message right right uh and then people keep saying like nobody wants to go back to basics no like
SPEAKER_01
27:59
no one like you say back to basics what you're basically saying is less services less response like less the useful responsibility uh
SPEAKER_01
28:08
uh and and And, like, maybe you'll get lower taxes in return, but probably not. Like, everybody knows that that's not a real thing. Also,
SPEAKER_01
28:17
Also, this is a very fiscally liberal town.
SPEAKER_01
28:20
Even, like, people are—taxes
SPEAKER_01
28:25
are—taxes have always been the biggest issue for, like, 30 elections in a row. Yeah,
SPEAKER_01
28:31
You know, you ask everybody, it's taxes are too high, taxes are too high, taxes are too high. If you're a candidate, all you have to say—all you really need to say is, i'm going to treat your tax money better i'm going to find ways to you know
SPEAKER_01
28:45
get more out of the taxes that you pay and maybe i'll try and lower them a little bit but like nobody really i don't think anybody really buys that and no one's put forward a plan that can say that this is something you that they absolutely could do so
Zain
28:59
so so it's not a housing election it's not like edmonton's next rung on the the big boy big city ladder election right what do we want
Zain
29:07
be it's not an existential we've got two pats that have been carved out for us sort of thing which kind of brings me to cartmel so
Zain
29:14
so this is the former counselor 2017 he's running as head of a party was he always part of this party did he start like and come out in this election i mean of course he wasn't previously but did did he lead this party did he soft shoe into this party and then give me a sense of how edmontonians are receiving the one guy if i'm not mistaken who's part of a party and every other candidate i've listed as an independent is this independent party thing a factor and how's give me the cartmel story here uh in broadest sense i know i've asked you like six questions here but lay it on me on on the cartmel side i
SPEAKER_01
29:49
i wouldn't say that the parties
SPEAKER_01
29:51
are taking off like wildfire um
Zain
29:54
are you being diplomatic
Zain
29:56
or do you do you actually mean like parties are liability like i think it's important to like get a sense of it from your
SPEAKER_01
30:03
think it sort of remains to be seen whether they're a liability, but I don't
SPEAKER_01
30:07
don't think they're helping.
SPEAKER_01
30:12
I think that generally the parties were put together as a fundraising apparatus and a data collection apparatus, and
SPEAKER_01
30:21
I'm not sure that that's worked all that well. Well, I don't see a ton in the lay of signals. I mean, Monday night, I might be completely wrong. I have no insight into the dashboards of any of these campaigns. But
SPEAKER_01
30:32
But it doesn't really feel like, you
SPEAKER_01
30:35
you know, I'm not seeing, you know, I'm not seeing any reason to believe that, like, the Better Edmonton Party is, like, really taking a city by storm and really resonating with people. In some ways, it looks like it's doing well. in some ways look they look like they're absolutely fighting for their life um
SPEAKER_01
30:54
um and i think
SPEAKER_01
30:59
mean he's been at this for a year he will spend more
SPEAKER_01
31:04
than any candidate in this city's history on
SPEAKER_01
31:07
on a mayoral campaign really
SPEAKER_01
31:08
and actually on any
SPEAKER_01
31:09
any campaign uh a municipal campaign in the city you
Zain
31:13
you think it hits like seven digits like is that what you're oh oh yeah it's definitely going to go past seven
SPEAKER_01
31:18
seven digits wow and i
SPEAKER_01
31:20
don't think anybody's ever even hit 900k um
SPEAKER_01
31:23
um but he he was at eight he was at date 45 at the end of july so he must be in uh you
SPEAKER_01
31:30
you know you know just but at least another 150
Zain
31:31
150 would be added to even the october month let alone yeah
SPEAKER_01
31:35
yeah i mean you can like however and you you know it's probably even more than that after yeah like
SPEAKER_01
31:39
like depending on how you want to treat up the party money but uh because you know the party money puts him on on
SPEAKER_01
31:46
on a lot of on
SPEAKER_01
31:47
on a lot of large signs on a lot of candidates large signs but i mean i i you know if i want to be like totally frank about this the the
SPEAKER_01
31:56
the carmel campaign at all at
SPEAKER_01
31:59
more than a million dollars has to win uh
SPEAKER_01
32:03
uh if the carmel campaign doesn't with
SPEAKER_01
32:06
more than and it's not just that like you
Zain
32:07
you just to be clear when you say it has to win you're like if it doesn't win like it it's a big deal that it doesn't win. It's a historic level deal that it doesn't win.
Zain
32:16
I don't want to put words in your mouth, but is that what you're trying to say? I mean, it's
SPEAKER_01
32:23
It'll be, I think, the most embarrassing election defeat
SPEAKER_01
32:25
of all time in
SPEAKER_01
32:29
yeah. I mean, when I'm in
SPEAKER_01
32:30
in 2013, I was in the legal age. But
Zain
32:33
be clear, not because
Zain
32:33
because Cartmel was a sure thing, though. Right? It's not like Cartmel was like up in the polls by 30 points and like someone caught him and beat him by two on election night. Just to be clear for everyone listening and you and I as well, it's not because of that narrative, right? Like we think of embarrassing
Zain
32:48
election losses on the, oh my God, like Polyev is a good example. How did you fuck this up, buddy? Like this was going to be yours. Like we were giving it to you. You'd all but, you know, we're the prime minister of this country. It's not on those terms. I just want to be clear. It's just, you're saying it because of how big, robust the spend was and how much of a flame it could ultimately end up being.
SPEAKER_01
33:11
Well, it just, like, so in 2013, Iverson beat Libervici three votes, like, three
SPEAKER_01
33:17
three votes to one. Yeah.
SPEAKER_01
33:19
And he, you know, I mean, I ran the Iverson campaign, so Weaver had spent, I
SPEAKER_01
33:25
I believe the Libervici campaign spent somewhere in the neighborhood of $880,000. Yep.
SPEAKER_01
33:31
Iverson raised $618,000. So, like, there's a delta there, but
SPEAKER_01
33:36
but not a massive one right after half a half a million dollars after three hundred thousand dollars it's like kind of a launch nobody
SPEAKER_01
33:46
has even close to the kind of like money that like ender nack is doesn't have maybe
SPEAKER_01
33:52
maybe as a quarter million dollars yeah
SPEAKER_01
33:55
and he and he i think is probably if i if i had to if i had to bet money um
SPEAKER_01
34:01
i would bet that he's gonna win on monday okay
Zain
34:05
gonna get so so interesting so
Zain
34:07
so like you and he and if he does he might do it less than
SPEAKER_01
34:09
than 300 to 400
Zain
34:10
400 thousand dollars ultimately yeah
SPEAKER_01
34:12
yeah yeah he that that that is very like that's a very real possibility he's having a
SPEAKER_01
34:18
a very good end of the end of his campaign is like really hitting in stride and
SPEAKER_01
34:24
and i think i've
SPEAKER_01
34:25
i've you know like i think the way the other candidates are are acting i
SPEAKER_01
34:30
i mean uh tim put out an ad or put out on social media post yesterday saying hey
SPEAKER_01
34:36
hey like every vote for anybody but me is a vote for andrew mack which
SPEAKER_01
34:40
you know like uh
SPEAKER_01
34:47
that's not the kind of ad that you run in
SPEAKER_01
34:50
in the last week um
SPEAKER_01
34:53
going into a sure thing victory now
Zain
34:56
now that might that might just this be the campaign, the
SPEAKER_01
34:58
the Torknell campaign being cautious? Yeah, sure. But that's, like, that's not an endgame message
Zain
35:03
message is what you're trying to say, right? Like, that's not an effective... I
SPEAKER_01
35:06
I don't think that's an endgame message. I think that's not a good closing message. I think NAC's closing messages are, you know,
SPEAKER_01
35:13
know, you could, whatever you feel about their
SPEAKER_01
35:17
policy proposals in them, or the platform
SPEAKER_01
35:19
platform around them, they are confident.
SPEAKER_01
35:23
And then they're running, they might be just, and they might just be running a campaign that they without thinking about anybody else and just we run whatever campaign we run and then we and we win or lose but but I think you know I
SPEAKER_01
35:37
I they the cartwheel campaign and the better Edmonton campaign who spent a ton of money at this point and I you
SPEAKER_01
35:44
don't think and they've ever been more
SPEAKER_01
35:47
they've led a couple of polls but they've never led a couple of polls over 20. Hmm.
SPEAKER_01
35:52
So and you know like yeah like they like they should be like they
SPEAKER_01
35:56
they really should have walked away with this and they didn't so
Zain
35:58
so so you've you've got an election which was sleepy but tight that's starting to show some space um that's trying to show some distance between knack at least in one janet brown poll that that i believe you're alluding to which was a 15 20 point lead somewhere in that neighborhood for for knack but would you be surprised if cartmel wins on monday i
SPEAKER_01
36:18
wouldn't be surprised if he won i mean he's taken up two
SPEAKER_01
36:22
two-thirds of all the ad space in this entire election so
SPEAKER_01
36:25
so so you know like you know i said a little bit earlier like you know one candidate has four hundred thousand dollars and the other one has seven
SPEAKER_01
36:33
seven hundred thousand dollars it's like you know that hundreds
SPEAKER_01
36:38
hundreds of thousands of dollars is a lot of money and you can make a real campaign out of that and you can reach a lot of people and if you spend them that four hundred thousand dollars properly and the other people don't spend their money very well then you're going to get um
SPEAKER_01
36:51
you're going to get you might get a good result on election night but that might not be true at like 1.1 million and i mean the carmel's probably spent in the last month alone probably in the neighborhood of 20 to 30 000 on meta ads right
SPEAKER_01
37:05
right and that's just like that's just one head platform yeah
SPEAKER_01
37:10
interesting not as much as homer or dr homer or muhammad
SPEAKER_01
37:15
want to talk about that guy
Zain
37:16
guy in a sec yeah
SPEAKER_01
37:19
but you know like I think
SPEAKER_01
37:21
think the NAP campaign was slow to start.
SPEAKER_01
37:25
And I think they kind
SPEAKER_01
37:27
kind of took stock of what they had, which was, I think, a good
SPEAKER_01
37:33
good social media presence for a candidate, a guy who's been responding to people diligently and door-knocking for 12 years,
SPEAKER_01
37:44
and a bunch of volunteers that wanted to do some door-knocking. And I think he has leveraged that as he got a little bit of money and scaled that to turn into a bit of a machine. Whereas I think, quite frankly, a campaign
SPEAKER_01
37:59
campaign with as much cash as the Carmel campaign has
SPEAKER_01
38:02
has had to pretty much buy everything that it's done.
Zain
38:07
signs, the services, everything. It's become
SPEAKER_01
38:10
become like a yeah,
SPEAKER_01
38:12
I mean, they went
SPEAKER_01
38:14
went into 2025 with $450,000. uh
SPEAKER_01
38:18
uh and when you have money you solve problems with money and you don't have money you solve problems with what you got with with
SPEAKER_01
38:25
equity yeah down the stretch higher levels of engagement right
SPEAKER_01
38:29
exactly and when you get money behind a system that was built with sweat equity that's
SPEAKER_01
38:34
that's easier to leverage into like a full-scale system than uh than um
SPEAKER_01
38:41
uh then when you've got to pay tax for everything does
Zain
38:45
does does anyone else factor in this election election Jaffer Walters or does anyone play spoiler in your mind like if it's close to any one of these other folks if they're not going to outright win do you feel like they have a chance collectively or individually to play spoiler for for one of one of these candidates in a sense what's your read there uh both in terms of can anyone else win and if not what is the role these other candidates are are bound to play on election night at least how you read it so
SPEAKER_01
39:14
so I think Walters
SPEAKER_01
39:18
run a fairly compelling campaign. He's certainly run a campaign on his strengths
SPEAKER_01
39:23
strengths and on his issues, which
SPEAKER_01
39:25
which is a great place for a campaign.
SPEAKER_01
39:29
He's running on what he's passionate about.
SPEAKER_01
39:32
I just didn't have enough. I think he just came in a little too late for that kind of campaign to pick up pace. I didn't think so at the time and then I think I've been
SPEAKER_01
39:43
turned out out that that was that was the case that he just wasn't just
SPEAKER_01
39:47
just didn't have enough runway to to make uh to to make a dent um i think he splits his voters split um
SPEAKER_01
39:56
um i i would be i would hesitate be hesitant to say who i think he
SPEAKER_01
40:02
helps who he would take away from yeah who he helps he might he might he might take from mac but he's not gonna
SPEAKER_01
40:13
know i i said earlier i thought it was going to be like 20 or 31 28 27
Zain
40:19
yeah yeah like that close
SPEAKER_01
40:20
close at the top you know like that but yeah that close at the top heat so like i don't think it's totally out of the realm of possibility but i think just based on the way that i think i'm seeing things move i i don't think that it is i
SPEAKER_01
40:32
i don't think that he can he can make it i think I think one
SPEAKER_01
40:35
one of the interesting things about what's going on is, I
SPEAKER_01
40:43
Dr. Omar Muhammad might
SPEAKER_01
40:47
be a good representation of the fuck you vote. So
SPEAKER_01
40:52
guy, let me just add a bit
Zain
40:53
bit of context. I'm going to give you my explanation of this guy. So middle-aged pediatric dentist, like shoulder-length hair, right? Like auctioneer. He's got a personality. I think charisma might be a bit too far to kind of classify it, although charisma is in the eye of the beholder. So I'll let others think about that. And his strategy seems to be very much, I'm
Zain
41:11
I'm doing, he's got a compelling life story, like growing up in like, you know, very trying circumstances, being a successful pediatric dentist, like, and then saying, I'm devoting my time and energy to become mayor. And he's got, he's
Zain
41:23
he's got something like
SPEAKER_01
41:25
like he's got, you know what I mean? And he's
Zain
41:27
he's doing Zoran style social media videos. They're not as slick. They're not as compelling. They're not as like, you know, universally endearing as that campaign's materials. And you know how it could be. I think that's a very different candidate. And it's a very different episode for you and I to talk about Zoran. But he's trying to take on that social media sort of punch through. And I'll give him credit. He's punched through. Like, why do I know this guy's name? I should not know this guy's name.
SPEAKER_01
41:52
i'll get i'll give him credit for a couple of things uh
SPEAKER_01
41:57
he's got a good message like sorry he's got a sorry i don't know if it's good message he's got a easily
SPEAKER_01
42:03
easily recognizable message and that message is fuck
SPEAKER_01
42:07
fuck these guys yeah
SPEAKER_01
42:08
they got us into this mess give somebody else all these formers and all the
Zain
42:13
the former cows all
SPEAKER_01
42:14
all these formers and
SPEAKER_01
42:16
and currents get rid
Zain
42:16
rid of these right and it's easy when everyone else
Zain
42:19
where's one of those two titles yeah
SPEAKER_01
42:21
yeah exactly and he's you know he's like look I'm you know I'm a total outsider here and
SPEAKER_01
42:26
and and who can articulate some
SPEAKER_01
42:32
good municipal ideas give me
SPEAKER_01
42:34
me a shot and
SPEAKER_01
42:36
and he's gotten smarter over the course of the election right
SPEAKER_01
42:38
right he started out with this like completely cringe rap I think
SPEAKER_01
42:44
yeah it was it was it was not good
SPEAKER_01
42:59
but he but then he's moved to these like videos
SPEAKER_01
43:04
you know like i think are a little stronger for for his particular personality so uh
SPEAKER_01
43:09
uh and i think are like i think if you are really like if you've got to vote this
SPEAKER_01
43:14
this is the other thing is like the vote like
SPEAKER_01
43:16
like we're looking at a low voter turnout here so i think all this like talk about undecideds like
SPEAKER_01
43:22
like well how which way are the undecideds going to swing the undecideds are going to swing to netflix
SPEAKER_01
43:27
netflix and they're going to spend like they're not going to go right they're not going to vote um
SPEAKER_01
43:33
um i think a lot of people made up their mind and they voted in uh in advance voting i guess this this time even though turnout was down significantly
Zain
43:40
significantly there right i
SPEAKER_01
43:42
think turnout was apparently up
SPEAKER_01
43:45
in absolute terms for oh okay okay
SPEAKER_01
43:48
i'm sorry but yeah thanks for the correction yeah but every
SPEAKER_01
43:50
every year every election people more people right in advance in edmonton
Zain
43:55
edmonton but we when we look at the mayoral like i i do want to highlight a thing you said earlier like this could be 90 to 140 like 140 000 votes at the top end and i think it's gonna be significantly less than that that
Zain
44:05
that potentially decides who becomes mayor here like that's a lot but also that's not a lot you know what i mean like
Zain
44:13
like 80 could be the floor here 80
Zain
44:16
people is often like a
Zain
44:19
know what i mean like from a federal it's like it's the and not not the voters and not how many people show up but it's the size of a riding like so you can have deep dominance with a particular type of group or a former counselor like there's all these interesting dynamics in a a in a first past the post election that i think municipal plays out because of that low voter turnout and frankly that relatively low number to
Zain
44:45
to to become mayor so you're not okay you're not putting any of these other folks in the in the winners category so help help me let
Zain
44:53
let me go through this little exercise with you then okay um
Zain
44:56
um if cartmel wins on election night why
SPEAKER_01
45:02
If Kurt Mill wins on election night, it's because he had the most money.
Zain
45:06
and it's, you think it's a testament to like a three to one or four to one spend.
SPEAKER_01
45:12
Yeah. Yeah. Four, five to one spend where you're just like, you just name recognition to shoot out of the place. I mean, Jim Kurt Mill is a very nice guy and
SPEAKER_01
45:22
and he's been, I think a pretty good counselor and,
SPEAKER_01
45:26
but like quite frankly, Frankly, I think he's kind of run against his record in some instances. And I think that he's, you know, like he's made some fairly significant mistakes and, and
SPEAKER_01
45:37
and he is, you
SPEAKER_01
45:39
you know, like, I think it was just positioning using that great. And I think that that more
SPEAKER_01
45:43
more or less bears out in, in
SPEAKER_01
45:46
where we're sitting right now. Like you should not be, there should not be, we should not be talking about, is
SPEAKER_01
45:53
is it going to be Knack or is it going to be Carmel or could it it may be walters we should
SPEAKER_01
45:58
should be saying to
SPEAKER_01
46:03
was out first had an unfathomable
SPEAKER_01
46:06
unfathomable amount of money and
SPEAKER_01
46:08
and convinced everybody to like
SPEAKER_01
46:12
like convinced everybody to vote for him pretty early with like a you know i just it how he has all the money how could he lose is how what i would
SPEAKER_01
46:22
on election night i'm gonna say you're already
Zain
46:23
already writing that story in your mind
Zain
46:25
and in other yeah
SPEAKER_01
46:26
yeah well but i i'm gonna say he had all the money how can he lose it's just a matter of what intonation i i
SPEAKER_01
46:32
i use it's either he had all the money how could he lose or it's he had all the money how could
SPEAKER_01
46:37
he lose right like so
SPEAKER_01
46:38
so you know he's either uh and
SPEAKER_01
46:41
and uh so yeah that that that's i think why i mean i i don't think his message is broadly
SPEAKER_01
46:48
broadly different from knack or that isn't that fascinating walters
Zain
46:52
they're they're they're not there you think they're playing in the same if they're in the same pool they're versions of different people like for sure but it's not like you don't think knack is playing in a deeply progressive pool here no
SPEAKER_01
47:03
no i don't think so then my question to you on the
Zain
47:05
the on the other end is if if knack wins why um
SPEAKER_01
47:10
um i think if knack wins uh it
Zain
47:12
it is i think which
SPEAKER_01
47:13
which by the way you
Zain
47:13
you think is the likely scenario to be clear just to make sure everyone's following yeah
SPEAKER_01
47:16
yeah i think i think today i would i would pick knack just and and this is is like this is like a hundred percent like yeah you know earlier i said like you don't know how like normal people think well like talking about
SPEAKER_01
47:28
about a constituency of one who's run a mayor like a city-wide campaign and
SPEAKER_01
47:34
and i just like i i
SPEAKER_01
47:37
i feel like he's i mean sorry first of all i would not want to be on the bad end
SPEAKER_01
47:42
of a janet brown poll
SPEAKER_01
47:43
i will say that um
SPEAKER_01
47:44
um and we're not certainly one where he he was 20 points ahead of the next person.
SPEAKER_01
47:49
Now, that's a snapshot in time, and that might have
SPEAKER_01
47:51
have evaporated immediately after that, but I think his campaign has gotten stronger, and I think his support's gotten stronger since then.
Zain
47:59
you think it's an issue? Do you think it's like the teacher strike, or is there anything that's aided it in your mind?
SPEAKER_01
48:07
I think he's, I mean, one thing about Andrew Knack is that Andrew Knack has been,
SPEAKER_01
48:12
he is a very genuine, authentic person.
SPEAKER_01
48:16
He presents himself as himself.
SPEAKER_01
48:19
And I think he's one of those people that you can disagree with and still vote for.
SPEAKER_01
48:24
I think he understands that. And I think he understands how he, I
SPEAKER_01
48:28
I think he understands how that comes off. I think that that's something that Aventonians really like.
SPEAKER_01
48:34
You know, if I had to provide
SPEAKER_01
48:36
provide any, like, armchair
SPEAKER_01
48:39
hindsight as 2020 criticism to Candley Ravitchi, it would be that I think she tried to change a little bit too much to like
SPEAKER_01
48:48
some expectations that maybe were
SPEAKER_01
48:52
like didn't help her out I felt like Don kind of presented himself as like you
SPEAKER_01
48:58
you know I'm this is the guy that I've always been
SPEAKER_01
49:02
I think Andrew just got a I think
SPEAKER_01
49:07
if he wins he wins because he is
SPEAKER_01
49:10
is more compelling to more
SPEAKER_01
49:13
more people more often them uh
SPEAKER_01
49:15
uh like whether and particularly in an election season that's this sleepy where maybe
SPEAKER_01
49:20
maybe you don't like the
SPEAKER_01
49:21
the party system with with carmel or maybe you think carmel's tied to politics that you don't necessarily like um
SPEAKER_01
49:30
um whereas andrew seems like a slightly safer bet uh
SPEAKER_01
49:34
uh and and like i said edmontonians like sort of mildly
SPEAKER_01
49:40
mildly ambitious candidates like that that want want to do they
SPEAKER_01
49:45
want to do good things and represent their city well but but don't you know like aren't
SPEAKER_01
49:50
aren't aren't coming in with like a giant
SPEAKER_01
49:52
giant gondola project or or
SPEAKER_01
49:55
or you know we're gonna triple
SPEAKER_01
49:58
the lrt in two years or anything like that like they don't like the i think you have antonians i think are generally pretty even keeled when they go to vote for mayor uh they also have have like the opportunity to do that because they can you know it's a two
SPEAKER_01
50:12
two ballot system right you
SPEAKER_01
50:14
don't sure you know the
SPEAKER_01
50:16
the number of in 2017 there were a huge percentage of the ballots were don
SPEAKER_01
50:21
don ivison for mayor and mike nickel for for
SPEAKER_01
50:26
you could be like well you know i like the hunky changey guy but i also want someone that's gonna be like hold them accountable at council so so
SPEAKER_01
50:33
so there's like there's a dynamic there that you can and
SPEAKER_01
50:36
and that you can play with with NAC. And if you think that, you know, you can vote for NAC and, you
SPEAKER_01
50:42
you know, somebody that you think will, you know, will rein them in a bit.
Zain
50:46
So, so, okay, this is helpful. I've got, I've got three more quick tranches for you. Number one, you know, back in 2017, when I was running the Nenshi campaign, you, you, you paid me a visit in the campaign office and we were chatting for a while. And my, my eye was focused obviously on the mayoral and,
Zain
50:59
and, and, and, and that race, which opened up at the end, but was a squeaker. In fact, we were down in some public polls for a a while and then i paid attention on election night be like oh yeah what the fuck happened to council i should take a look like people fucking hated council and then she was wearing a lot of that like oh my god i bet all the people i know on council and every single one of the incumbents chris got re-elected yeah
Zain
51:23
every single one that ran again i should say yeah
Zain
51:28
edmonton's got a bit bit of, oh, this council, we always have that a bit, but it would vary in degrees. I don't want to spend time on individual folks because I think the Merrills was interesting to me, but give me a flavor. What do you think happens to council? How your read is in the sense how Edmontonians vote for these things? Do you feel like there's going to be big change on council? Do you feel like incumbents are going to be unseated? Is this that election? What would dictate that in your mind? Just give me a sense on council right now.
SPEAKER_01
51:54
Aside from the five seats that are definitely going to change which
SPEAKER_01
51:57
which because there's no incumbent there's
SPEAKER_01
51:59
there's no one got it i
SPEAKER_01
52:01
think it's fine i
SPEAKER_01
52:03
i think that generally i you
SPEAKER_01
52:05
you know i again we hear all this stuff about how this is like such a loony left council but i you know i know that they're all very conscientious about serving their constituents and
SPEAKER_01
52:17
all not all those constituents are going to vote for them a second time obviously but i think most of them are going to uh
SPEAKER_01
52:24
uh you know like i think that people
SPEAKER_01
52:29
appreciate like some of our customer service approach from from
SPEAKER_01
52:33
from the council and i don't think they get too worked up in particularly in edmonton i don't think you get too worked up in the in
SPEAKER_01
52:38
in in the politics like people that's interesting
SPEAKER_01
52:42
like but i think they maybe there's a there's certainly a constituency of people who like identify a progressive counselor
Zain
52:47
counselor and identify a conservative counselor and they gravitate towards them
SPEAKER_01
52:52
but that's again those are like political animals and they're like very normal people in the middle that you
SPEAKER_01
52:58
you know asked if there
SPEAKER_01
53:00
there could you know why the speed limit
SPEAKER_01
53:04
30 and they're in front of near their school and got a response back right
SPEAKER_01
53:09
and that's sort of what what they want to what what they want to enter their city councilor so i would be i think that you know i wouldn't be surprised if every single incumbent came back i
SPEAKER_01
53:20
wouldn't be surprised if uh five
SPEAKER_01
53:26
for instance five came back and
SPEAKER_01
53:29
and and maybe like a couple got picked on but
SPEAKER_01
53:32
but i would be very surprised if only one came like
SPEAKER_01
53:36
one or two like i would be this is i mean
SPEAKER_01
53:39
mean every every election is a throw the bums out election until everybody until people go to vote yeah
SPEAKER_01
53:44
yeah and and like and they you know like and
SPEAKER_01
53:48
and a lot of these people work really hard and they they you know like i think they represent their constituents fairly well and you know i might be in the minority there but but
SPEAKER_01
53:56
but you know i see them do their work and and
SPEAKER_01
53:58
and there's just there's a there's a very good reason reason why you
SPEAKER_01
54:03
know i think only seven people since 2004 have
SPEAKER_01
54:11
lost an incumbent race uh
SPEAKER_01
54:14
uh in edmonton it's it like it's public it's it's customer service politics and these people councils are generally really good at the customer service end of it love
Zain
54:23
love that insight let's end here Here.
Zain
54:28
You know what this final weekend looks like. We sit here recording on Thursday evening, Thursday,
Zain
54:32
Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday, Monday.
Zain
54:35
Knowing what this final weekend involves, can you give me some advice for both of the two leading mayoral campaigns? And let's start with Cartmel.
Zain
54:43
What advice would you give to them and their team right now? Dispense it, whether it's over-the-air advice, on-the-ground advice, organizational advice, money advice uh it might just be advice that says it's all over you can't change the destiny it's all the cake is already baked good luck i'm giving you just examples of things to to consider i'm
Zain
55:02
i'm not trying to shoehorn you but it's the the the slate is clean and it is yours what advice would you give the better edmonton tim cartmel team um over the course of the next three to four days
SPEAKER_01
55:12
i i i think i would actually give the same advice to both candidates and that or both campaigns and that is just don't
SPEAKER_01
55:20
don't do anything fucking silly don't
SPEAKER_01
55:23
don't change don't make massive changes like if you're if
SPEAKER_01
55:28
just run the strategy that you've been running this far uh
SPEAKER_01
55:34
don't try and pick up that x don't don't try and do anything that you think is going to pick up that extra percent i don't think it'll work like
Zain
55:40
like like you're getting a loan to get another half a million dollars of ads over the final weekend or shit like i'm just i'm making
SPEAKER_01
55:46
making shit up or
Zain
55:48
hail mary of some kind right yeah
SPEAKER_01
55:50
yeah like don't try and like reveal
SPEAKER_01
55:53
reveal that like i
SPEAKER_01
55:55
i don't know like a photo or something that you
SPEAKER_01
55:59
you know people are going to think that you release on friday night and on saturday everybody absorbs the ai and then and
SPEAKER_01
56:06
and then you know like like there's no hail mary that's going going to work here you were either on the trajectory to win right now or you're not and
SPEAKER_01
56:15
so i wouldn't be trying i wouldn't be trying to change tack at all right now i
SPEAKER_01
56:22
would be running flat
SPEAKER_01
56:26
with the with the strategy that got me where i you know because like if
SPEAKER_01
56:30
if you're the carmel campaign right now you think you're going to win on monday you you must you you
SPEAKER_01
56:34
you have to think that way right yeah
SPEAKER_01
56:36
you have to think that way like and and i think there's like reason for them like that's not a fantasy that there's a there's
SPEAKER_01
56:42
there's a reason that there's a very compelling reason why they could win on monday um
SPEAKER_01
56:46
um if you're the knack campaign i would you know you gotta be you gotta be thinking the last three weeks of this campaign has been fucking great right when people are paying attention uh people you know like i i would bet that the knack campaign feels like they're getting momentum a little more every day and
SPEAKER_01
57:04
and And they're headed toward, you
SPEAKER_01
57:08
They're headed toward victory. Maybe
SPEAKER_01
57:10
Maybe US Flight won, but
SPEAKER_01
57:12
but they are headed toward victory on Election Day. I would just keep going. And so, yeah, same thing with the Cardinal campaign. I would just, would not do anything that,
SPEAKER_01
57:23
like, I think Edmontonians, I think, are a perceptive bunch.
SPEAKER_01
57:27
I think they'll, I think those, I
SPEAKER_01
57:30
I think they'll see a gimmick. I think they'll spot a gimmick if you put one in front of them. So I would just head down, contact your voters, just get out there and work until
SPEAKER_01
57:41
until you're blue in the face.
Zain
57:45
I love it. We're going to leave it there, Chris. And we now know so much more about Edmonton and people can pretend like they knew all of this all along on Monday night when they're watching the election results come in. By the way, you guys, in Calgary, we don't get the council results until much later because of all the shit. Is it different for you guys? I should know this, but I'm asking. Do you know if it's different?
SPEAKER_01
58:12
We used to get, so basically you used to go to the elect, you used to go to vote. Yeah.
SPEAKER_01
58:18
And then you would say, do I want a public trustee ballot or do I want a
SPEAKER_01
58:23
Catholic trustee ballot? it and
SPEAKER_01
58:25
and then you fill in the scantron sheet and then you feed it into the machine yourself yeah
SPEAKER_01
58:30
and then that's it and
SPEAKER_01
58:31
and and we get the results right away it's really anti-climactic if you're a campaign manager uh
SPEAKER_01
58:37
uh because you do you know you get a call from elections or at least i did i got a call from election beddington saying here's
SPEAKER_01
58:44
here's like where where we're at with the results and i was like okay fuck we won this thing uh i'm not going to tell anybody for 15
SPEAKER_01
58:50
15 minutes because people are enjoying the tension uh
SPEAKER_01
58:54
but uh but now that we're all the now that the provincial government is mandated that all the ballots have to be hand counted i
SPEAKER_01
59:03
i don't know if we're going to see the results until late particularly if it's a close election we might not get them till the next day that's going to be a fucking mess yeah
SPEAKER_01
59:12
yeah so i'm not i'm really not looking forward to that edmonton elections like the municipal division edmonton elections has always done an extraordinary ordinary job organizing the election and like having just no drama whatsoever uh
SPEAKER_01
59:28
uh i i'm worried that we'll have a little bit of that this this time and i think edmontonians are gonna i
SPEAKER_01
59:33
i think it's gonna be weird for them to not have results
SPEAKER_01
59:39
on election night i think they are used to seeing that but aside
SPEAKER_01
59:42
aside also the cost of it is phenomenally
Zain
59:48
might Might be the same
Zain
59:49
boat there. We'll leave it there. That's a wrap on episode 1887 of The Strategist. My name is Zayn Velji. With me always, Chris Henderson. We might unmute his mic every
SPEAKER_01
59:56
every now and then. And we'll see
Zain
59:57
see you next time.