Episode 1882: Forever Carter

Zain 0:01

This is the Strategist episode 1882. My name is Zain Velji. With me as always, Shannon Phillips and Stephen Carter. Friends of August, how are you? Oh

Carter 0:10

Oh my god, I'm so excited.

Zain 0:12

Are you excited to

Zain 0:14

to get your ass kicked and

Carter 0:15

and your ass handed to you again?

Zain 0:16

again? You know what? There

Carter 0:17

There were some people who thought I held my own.

Carter 0:19

No, there were no people

Zain 0:20

people who thought you held your own.

Carter 0:21

Three people who thought I made some good points.

Zain 0:24

Do they all live within your current domicile?

Carter 0:28

domicile? Even on the Discord there were people who said that Who gives a fuck You guys

Zain 0:38

Bunch of cucks We all

Shannon 0:40

What we need to discuss and that's obviously The Taylor Whatever that fucking

Carter 0:46

How do you not

Zain 0:48

Speaking of things that are one sided The

Zain 0:51

wedding of the greatest Songwriter of our generation And a football dude dude. Stephen Carter, you have one fact on each of them that no one else in the universe has. What are they? What

Carter 1:01

What are they? Travis is the highest-receiving tight end in football history.

Zain 1:05

Highest-receiving. Okay, I wrote that down. Sorry, I didn't even know that was a term. Highest-receiving. Yeah,

Carter 1:09

then Taylor Swift is the highest-grossing female artist

Zain 1:13

artist of all time.

Zain 1:14

Highest-grossing. Yep. Ah, okay. That's good, Carter. And you feel like no one else knew those facts. No,

Carter 1:19

No, I... No, one facts aren't unknown facts. Oh, I didn't know that. are singular facts that you know that enabled you to get through the conversation, right?

Carter 1:29

right? So I know that Taylor Swift makes infinitely more money than Travis Kelsey. I

Carter 1:35

I know that. Do you

Zain 1:36

you feel like either of these one facts would get you through a cocktail party if this were to be, let's say, the discussion for 20

Zain 1:41

minutes? Well, I also

Carter 1:41

also know something about the ring.

Carter 1:43

Oh, what do you know about the ring? Me too. I looked at the pictures of the ring.

Shannon 1:46

ring. That was great.

Carter 1:47

Yeah, the ring was, oh my god. Yeah, the ring is great.

Shannon 1:52

I mean, these are the people with With most

Zain 1:53

money in the world, the ring should be great. Well, okay, I get the hate for Travis Kelsey. I do not get the hate for Taylor Swift. I

Shannon 2:00

I don't have a hate for either of them. I just

Zain 2:02

super care. There's the hate in your heart, Carter. No,

Carter 2:06

No, I quite like Taylor Swift.

Carter 2:07

I'm a little jealous of Travis Kelsey.

Zain 2:12

Good. Can we clip that? Please clip that and send it directly to one Heather McRae, who

Zain 2:18

who I believe will appreciate that. In fact, let's post it and tag her. I don't see any downside. No downside. Whatsoever. I don't see any downside.

Zain 2:28

Well, I mean, she supported you through the last episode, which was a complete train wreck. So this will probably not have any issue on your marriage whatsoever. Train

Zain 2:36

Train wreck. Train wreck. There were people who supported me. Carter, Carter, Carter. You were justifying at the end of that segment. You pretty much said the end justified the means. I, in fact,

Carter 2:45

fact, did say the end justified the means. I think that's exactly what he said.

Zain 2:48

In fact, no, no. Right. Sorry, it wasn't at the end. That was the core of your argument. That was

Carter 2:52

was the core of my argument. You

Zain 2:54

were losing before it began. Shannon, how are you? Have you taken your victory in stride and humbly?

Shannon 3:00

Oh, yeah. I forgot about it until just now. That's

Zain 3:04

That's how often she wins. She keeps winning, Carter. She wins all the time.

Carter 3:08

Yeah, that's not what we do.

Zain 3:11

You know, I didn't want to go here. Can I pick up on this? Shannon, this will be a hard transition into politics. Who's the biggest PR loser If Air Canada flight attendants vote down this deal. So what ultimately happens is if they vote down this deal, it goes to arbitration. I don't know if that's binding arbitration. Shannon, you may have a better sense of it. I'm just headline reading here. And I'll admit that. But who's like the biggest political PR loser in this? Is it Air Canada? Is it the flight attendants? Is it CUPE again? How does this play? Should these flight attendants who start voting tomorrow vote this deal down? It's

Shannon 3:42

It's super rough for the union, right? Because if they're recommending a deal to members and members are like, no, get out of here,

Shannon 3:50

that means that the union leadership has

Shannon 3:53

has misread their membership. And I'm not sure if it's binding or if it's just regular arbitration either. I'm not as up on how things work with

Shannon 4:02

federally regulated industries. But the point is that it's super rough for CUPE because then CUPE has basically lost the plot with their own members. And I doubt that will happen. To be honest, it very rarely happens.

Shannon 4:17

And so I would think this thing will pass through.

Zain 4:23

Carter, I'll get your prediction as well, because Shannon gave me hers. But who's the biggest political PR loser if this thing doesn't pass by the membership, who ultimately, for folks, understand the union presents a deal, negotiates a deal, presents a deal, the members have to vote on it to ratify it, to make it official? Well,

Carter 4:40

Well, I mean, political loser would have to be Mark Carney, right?

Carter 4:43

right? Like, forget about the actual losers, who I think is who Shannon

Carter 4:47

Shannon has described. I'm going to go with political loser. And

Carter 4:50

And the political loser is Mark Carney. He's the one who stepped in, took

Carter 4:54

took the political chance in order to stop this deal. And it just didn't happen. So I would say that it's Mark Carney who's the biggest political loser.

Zain 5:05

Shannon, what do you think of that? Do you feel like Carney loses here? Like, they stepped in. Carter was supportive. You can listen to that 20 minutes. But he

Zain 5:13

makes an interesting point. Like, Carney stepped in, I would argue, prematurely. I think you and I both argued prematurely. Not prematurely.

Zain 5:20

Prematurely. And it's justified

Zain 5:22

Yeah, sure. Probably took a bit of a, you know, a shit-kicking for that, at least momentarily. Do you feel like he wears any of this, Shannon, if this doesn't cross the finish line this week?

Shannon 5:32

I don't know if publicly. Publicly, I think it adds another proof point, though, and just another data point in terms of people are getting a raw deal out there and the government doesn't have my back.

Shannon 5:45

that's the piece that's the vulnerability for Carney. We saw that in the Abacus data, the poll that they put out that they did on behalf of the union. But I think there was some other polling that Abacus did on Carney's strengths and weaknesses. And, you know, obviously, his strengths, you know, super solid on like, send him out onto the world stage, negotiate with Trump, manage the economy, you know, all those sort of big files. But his one weakness was understands what people like me go through. And I think they're missing the mark. It might not actually stick to him at all. But it's for the labor movement, certainly. It's another proof point. and i wouldn't you know a lot of people would be you know oh well like qp is mostly public sector workers yada yada you know i've heard people say stuff like that the

Shannon 6:35

the fact of the matter is is that there are a lot of private sector workers that um are counting on carney with respect to the negotiations with the united states uh and with opening up new markets and so on protecting those Right. Whether it's in forestry, steel and aluminum or auto. And

Shannon 6:54

And that's where losing the plot for him can be both policy dicey and politically dicey. But the overall narrative of like, does he get what I'm going through? The conservatives are

Shannon 7:07

are still stronger than than him on that metric. And that's that's their one vulnerability.

Zain 7:15

One more thing on this, and Shannon, I'll start with you again. What can the union do tonight, heading into tomorrow when the members start voting, to try to reach, to make this a successful deal? I guess the question is fundamentally, what instruments, like help the public understand, what instruments does a labor union have on their members to push through a deal? And I'm not talking about like push it through ham-fistedly, but like what's their persuasion technique what tools do they have what do they normally do in this situation because it might be a bit of a black box to the public between now and when the results come in but what is the union doing tonight tomorrow heading into this voting period what do you think i

Shannon 7:54

i mean they're not doing a whole lot right now but what they have been doing is communicating to members what the deal entails right because even that for a large membership like this you're not you're going to need to to do a little bit of that uh and what happens if you vote no right

Shannon 8:10

usually what like it's usually pretty crisp, straightforward message, because, you know, while, you know, union bargaining team is recommending the deal, they're not like out there selling in the same way that we think of political marketing and selling.

Zain 8:25

There's no earned media play. There's no media relations play here. This is entirely internal. That's right.

Shannon 8:30

right. Yeah. And basically they're saying, like, if we vote this down, here's why we accepted this deal, essentially. and if we vote this down here's what happens the next steps are x y and z and basically you're super taking your chances and all

Carter 8:42

all of the things

Shannon 8:42

things that we did win and sometimes it's non-monetaries and sometimes it's other things like they ask people to to kind

Shannon 8:49

kind of consider the whole deal right

Shannon 8:51

right and if we have to go back to the drawing board then we're uh

Shannon 8:54

uh then we're opening up the agreement uh for all of these other things that were kind of settled out when we got down to the you know the unpaid work or whatever the sticky points were um and so oftentimes they'll just be educating members like look we we want all this stuff um and uh we have we we go way back uh to way before um the the strike vote like we start at square one again and that really really sucks and there's huge downsides for doing it and that's why we accepted this deal even if you're not super jazzed about all of the aspects of that deal.

Zain 9:31

Strategist Stephen Carter, there is a timeline, there's an opponent, there is a threshold for what success looks like. This sounds like the world of a strategist in some ways. We talk about most of this being internal. We talk about, and Shannon, I appreciate that. But I will also say I expected that answer in some degree, right? Like pretty conventional. This is inside baseball. You push through the messaging. You're They're not doing anything to ruffle feathers. Carter, should

Zain 9:58

should they, though? Or is the conventional approach the right approach here? Or is there some strategic marketing innovations that a union should consider as they try to encourage, ever so lightly, but perhaps not so, their members to vote this deal? Because I tend to agree with Shannon that it's potentially CUPE that wears egg on their face should this thing not pass and ratify in the next number of days. I

Carter 10:20

was talking with a labor organizer last week and they were talking about how, you

Carter 10:25

know, what happens if they endorse a political candidate. If

Carter 10:29

If they endorse a political candidate, it almost works 180 degrees in the opposite direction.

Zain 10:34

Say that again. You mean if this is a union, this is not related to this situation. You know,

Carter 10:39

we're going to vote for Rachel Notley, right? Back in the day, we're going to vote for Rachel Notley. Surprise pick.

Carter 10:44

Didn't know that's where they'd go. The

Carter 10:45

The membership loses their shit. And

Carter 10:48

And they say, well, you don't tell us what to do. You're not going to, you're not the boss of us. We're going to vote the way we want to vote. And it may even have a negative impact. pack. And I suspect that if the, if the, if QP were to take a sales focused, sell the membership on

Carter 11:05

on this deal, you'd have the very same type of negative backlash. The best you can do, the best you can do is to say, this is what it is. This is what happens if it doesn't go through very non-committal, very much non-sales focused.

Carter 11:21

And that, that way you're not putting your thumb on the scale because if you put your thumb on the scale they're going to see and they're going to overreact is

Zain 11:29

there any room for your boy carney to put his thumb on the scale carter i mean he went halfway why not go all the way i'm

Zain 11:35

i'm being facetious but isn't the logical extension of mark carney triggering uh you know binding or the binding arbitration to to kind of not have the the politics of this sour on him no

Carter 11:47

no i think i i think that there's

Carter 11:49

there's lots of room to let this unfold as it was going to there's no reason for mark carney to get more involved he's off uh negotiating peace world peace in europe um let him do that that's a far more productive use of his time than uh labor peace here and and and really i mean just world

Zain 12:08

world peace carter oh is that what we're saying he's doing okay why

Carter 12:10

why not shannon said something earlier about

Carter 12:13

about the labor movement and i was just like oh

Carter 12:15

oh no oh no the labor movement in canada is mad at me oh no that's gonna have real impact for about seven minutes it

Shannon 12:24

it just isn't the same as it once was if that were the case carter then pierre poliovo wouldn't be spending all of this political capital sucking up to them

Shannon 12:34

and writing a bunch of checks his ass can't cash because that's exactly what he's doing that's what he did during the the our canada strike he did it in the platform there's a reason why they pulled out a bunch of stuff in the platform that was anti-union. Why would he do that if there was no political payoff in doing it?

Zain 12:48

I tend to agree with Shannon. And I think it's less about the labor movement and more so about the members, consolidated groups that exist through at least some shared values. We

Zain 12:59

We have fewer and fewer of those going forward. And yes, I and like my personal politics obviously agree with what labor has to say. Your bias is

Carter 13:08

already there your bias is

Zain 13:10

no it isn't maybe once again i'll say i'll say this to you the new i'll say what i said to you on the jess person show maybe listen for once maybe listen maybe let someone let me let someone complete this statement i feel like it was advice you did not take i was advice you did not take then probably advice probably not gonna take

Carter 13:28

take it now no yeah then

Zain 13:29

then why would i why would i dispense it then carter why would i waste my time dispensing it let's move it on to our first segment our first segment make alberta canada again forever Forever, let us talk about this petition. Carter, you and I got into it. I was speaking to Jesper, and you and I got into it on

Zain 13:44

on that show last week. I want to bring that conversation, or a version of, I'll remove myself as much as I can, to this show, because I want to talk about if the Forever Canada petition is working, and I want to talk about what does working mean and what does success mean for this petition. So just to bring everyone up to speed, maybe our non-Alberta listeners, or for those who who are enjoying a normal summer and not recording a podcast. Which, Carter, why are we doing this? Like, who do

Carter 14:10

do we owe this to? Why are

Zain 14:11

are we doing this? I don't know why we're doing this. I don't know. I don't think we owe it to anybody, to

Zain 14:15

to be honest. Yeah, there's nothing

Carter 14:15

nothing happening except Thomas Lukasik's little play toy.

Zain 14:19

So, Thomas Lukasik started an organization that I believe is called Forever Canada or Forever Canadian. I don't want to get it wrong, but I probably have. Well, you did, but you took two

Carter 14:27

two choices at it, which means one of them is wrong, at least.

Zain 14:31

If you would have listened, see previous note, I just said that. I'm just,

Carter 14:35

just, Carter, the question

Zain 14:36

question is, do you agree that Alberta should remain in Canada? Elections Alberta approved this petition on June 30th, so July 1st. It allowed signature collection to begin on August 2nd. And Lukaszek and this group have

Zain 14:51

have to collect, and I'm just going to set the facts out for folks, right? right? 293,000 some odd signatures by the date October 28th, 2025. So not a lot of time.

Zain 15:03

Collection began on the 2nd of August. By the end of October, they need just under 300,000 signature, i.e. 10% of Alberta's electorate. If it succeeds, the petition will go to the legislature and could trigger a referendum before the 2027 provincial election. The reason I bring all these facts up is that things, according to Thomas Lukasik, seem to be going well. There There was a Canadian press profile that highlighted him up front and center with his beautiful t-shirt. Laugh as you much. No, no. I mean, profiles are

Carter 15:32

are going to get him there.

Carter 15:34

Profiles are what he needs.

Zain 15:36

Seems like success is happening on the ground. So I want to actually set the table because, Carter, you and I have set the table before the Signature Collection happened with Corey. We've talked about this in other places. Let me start with the most basic of questions.

Zain 15:48

And I'll start with you, Carter. What does success look like here?

Carter 15:52

294,000 signatures is what success looks like there is no there is no middling success you have you have put the question on the table you have said we want to remain and now you have to actually achieve that goal uh 294,000 signatures uh did in the profile piece zane yes maybe shannon

Carter 16:12

you know um did he happen to mention how many signatures they'd gathered to this point no

Shannon 16:17

no but i don't think they know that yet because a lot of these elbows up boomers that are out there uh uh collecting them i have them you know neatly stored in their clipboards and haven't turned them

Carter 16:27

them in yet no no no no no no that doesn't count because every one of these people who is collecting has to be an official um that's official collector right like it there are they're they're not just some joe on the street walking around with a form trying to get signatures they have to be authorized by the the campaign in order what i'm saying is like

Shannon 16:46

like people that list

Carter 16:48

list is known that

Carter 16:49

that list is known i

Carter 16:51

i can email them all tonight i can email them all tonight to get those those those people to send me the numbers that they've collected to this point and

Carter 17:00

and and and quite frankly when we're doing campaigns we often reach out to scrutineers we often reach out to volunteers in fact i've got metrics for for 28 different campaigns that i'm running right now on my computer that i update every single week to make sure that i'm on track the question is did thomas lukasik happen to mention how many fucking signatures he's gathered in the first month of this fucking campaign so

Shannon 17:27

for you carter looks like 294 000 and i and i think that i mean you and i carter have both poo-pooed this in the past

Carter 17:36

past on this show

Shannon 17:37

show but i have revised my opinion a little bit since i went into some of the volunteer groups in the and and i'm looking at the action on the ground on it basically it's elbows up boomers on facebook is what it is and they have got p and v and irl yeah

Shannon 17:55

yeah they are ready to roll they're sitting in their driveways they're going to there were literally hundreds of people lined up

Shannon 18:02

lethbridge hundreds hundreds like of like old ass boomers standing in the 30 degree heat to sign a petition it was wild 294 000 yeah i get that okay

Zain 18:14

i've got i've got okay shannon thank you i appreciate you setting kind of your flag and where it's at let me let me interject because i can go one of two ways but let me just go the most obvious way why

Carter 18:25

why are you so so fucking cynical carter

Zain 18:28

because like this is someone doing this is a group for take lukasic out of it for what do you mean this is a what

Zain 18:34

what do you mean is it about because is you

Zain 18:36

you sound you sound like you have said in the past on different issues that doing something for the purpose of building organization and serving as a rallying cry is worth it so unless this is another bit bit i'm truly trying to understand why

Carter 18:52

is a dumb ass idea i

Carter 18:55

mean at the very least do this for something that matters yeah the country matters which is why i put my my name to explain explain

Carter 19:02

genuinely trying to understand the lineup of a couple dozen boomers in my neighborhood um

Carter 19:09

you're going to capture all of the signatures in the first 60 days nothing you're And people are going to be walking around shopping malls, getting kicked out, trying to get more signatures.

Zain 19:20

not going to happen.

Carter 19:21

It's not cynicism. It's reality. And when it doesn't happen, it gets to be turned into a more negative story.

Zain 19:30

Let me, let me, okay, explain that to me. So, so I'll let you walk us through what your reality looks like in the coming months and days, right? Right. So let me give you some stats because you asked a question and I'll tell you what the article said. They have 3000 people that are volunteering. They've acknowledged the 300,000 number that they need to hit. They threw out a story saying, you know, one person in Calgary gave them 8000 signatures in a day. Right. They've mentioned they have got 20 to 30 events per day on their website that are signature gathering events that they've had. So the answer to your question is no, they haven't told us how many signatures they've gotten to the 300,000. but these are some of the stats they have given. That all being said, Carter, I'm going to give you the opportunity to... Because I'm genuinely curious here. I'm judging you a bit, but I'm willing to put that aside. Give me the Stephen Carter strategist case of what happens if Thomas Lukasik doesn't hit $300,000. You're saying that there's a bigger failure here than all the efforts combined if he doesn't hit the one metric of success that you put out there. I'm

Carter 20:30

I'm just trying to figure out how someone does 8,000 signatures in a day.

Carter 20:35

Like, what are you doing? unless i yeah

Zain 20:37

yeah that's what it's just i'm just giving you what the no but this is

Carter 20:40

is this is all the spin this and when

Zain 20:42

when it ultimately falls short

Carter 20:44

when it ultimately falls short the opposition gets to say see you couldn't even get 300 000 signatures for people to stay in canada sorry and

Zain 20:51

and then the opposition the opposition

Carter 20:53

the group that wants to separate okay

Carter 20:55

okay right now then they get to go have a go at it right

Carter 20:58

right this is this is just playing straight into their hands with

Zain 21:02

the reduced With the reduced threshold, to be clear, right?

Zain 21:04

right? With the reduced threshold,

Carter 21:05

threshold, they get to aim for 167,000 signatures or some dumbass thing. I

Zain 21:11

I think half of this, I believe, if I'm not mistaken. Whatever

Carter 21:14

Whatever the number is, it doesn't

Carter 21:15

doesn't matter. The number is the number. The politics of this isn't going to change. As long as we are talking about separatism, we are losing, period. End of story. End of story. Your

Zain 21:27

Your story here is that the failure is that if Lukasik and co. don't get the number, you give the separatists a chance to have a go at it, which was always going to be the default case. They

Carter 21:39

always going to fail first. Let them fail. Don't go out. This was the problem with the strategy from the beginning. This is why we criticized the strategy from the beginning. some

Carter 21:50

some of us have the internal fortitude to stay strong on the on the strategies that we articulate from the beginning and not flip over because she saw 300 people lined up in a parking lot of the fucking sobies right like fucking

Carter 22:05

fucking grab some you know internal strength shannon um this was a bad idea from the beginning i

Shannon 22:12

i i here's the thing once the horse is out at the barn i First of all, I think that it is up to all of us to, you know, support efforts for Alberta to remain in Canada as a matter of principle. And I don't think there is any more important, basically, thing to articulate over this summer to push back against Daniel Smith's separatist misadventures. So that's the first piece. The second thing is, what I have seen is

Shannon 22:41

is analogous to some of the pushback that I saw during the CPP fight. But it's way bigger, and

Shannon 22:52

And it's summer and people are not paying attention. And yet, here these people are paying attention. I think we have to, I really do believe that we have to grab onto anything that catches people's attention right now, if it's for, quote unquote, our side, and make common cause and push back. And that's where I do see enthusiasm. People are excited about this. and I am not in the business as you know a political has been but was once a politician of getting in the way of people's good time if people are enthusiastic about something that you know roughly comports to your values we should be excited about it it's important for civil society it's important for for people's you know sense of attachment it's important for for just the ongoing subsistence of liberal democratic values for people to put their oar in the water and do some organizing in the old-fashioned way. And I don't care that it's a guy whose politics I profoundly dislike,

Shannon 23:55

dislike, or at least his historical politics. I really don't. Are

Zain 23:59

Are you talking about Thomas here? I'm

Shannon 24:01

talking about Lacazette. He

Carter 24:02

He was the Minister of Education when I was... Yeah,

Shannon 24:04

Yeah, I mean... Kind of a big deal. he was a pretty anti

Shannon 24:08

guy and and like i don't like his politics but that doesn't matter at all wasn't offended at stellmax politics either i was a new democrat right when there were four of them um but i do think that this is important i do think it's important for all albertans of good faith and good conscience uh to push back against the separatist nonsense because within the separatist uh idea bucket is a whole bunch of really really revanchist regressive of bullshit uh that is rooted in racist tropes on her her views on immigration that is about privatizing uh public services so every single time that we have thousands of albertans and i actually don't care if they meet the 294 i think if they even come close to

Shannon 24:53

to what the uh the half is the 150 or whatever the one that the actual separatists will be uh held to i think if they they come close to that?

Zain 25:00

that? It's 177, just so everyone's aware. Yeah. So

Shannon 25:03

So if they come close to that, that's more of a metric of success, I think, because I do not believe that those separatists will be able to organize a two-car parade, right? So they won't come close to the 177.

Carter 25:16

Okay. But let us play a game, right?

Carter 25:18

Let us say that Thomas Lukasik gets 150,000 signatures and our good friends, the crazy ass separatists get themselves 58,000 signatures. If Danielle Danielle Smith wants to push this. You know what she does? She

Zain 25:32

look at this. We've

Carter 25:34

We've met the threshold because ultimately the government can put whatever fucking question they want on any ballot.

Carter 25:39

And this gives credence to the question being added to the fucking ballot. If it wasn't for her province, I

Carter 25:48

I was talking and

Zain 25:49

and now I'm getting

Carter 25:50

getting talked over by both. Listen, listen

Carter 25:53

listen once in a while. Shannon,

Zain 25:55

Shannon, the white man is speaking. Please, please let him. Oh my God.

Zain 25:58

episode title just uh the white man is speaking all caps damn right yeah yeah please just i just want that to be the episode title thank you um carter hits actually on something interesting and shannon you go you're going exactly where i want to go which is carter you at least seem to be implying that she's not going to find another excuse all of this is with the assumption that we are getting a referendum question either way might as well organize and or in the in the I agree with the two of you that there's a slimmer chance that the Kazakh hits the 300,000, like best of luck, I hope they do. But in the off chance that they do, that becomes a question. But at the very least, Carter, they're building an org apparatus for when the actual day comes and we need to be able to fight this question on its own merits. A separate organizational

Carter 26:45

organizational strategy than the one that we have in party politics. This isn't going to be a standalone question. This is going to happen at the same time as a provincial election. We don't need a standalone organizational structure. We need an organizational structure that folds in to the political parties that exist. What's

Zain 27:02

What's what's to say that this can't fold into anything, that this can't be an apparatus that then says the best way to to support the Canadian cause is to vote for new Democrats, for example, or some version of that. Like, I don't understand it. You're just making an assumption based out of nothing that this this won't have the ability to tie into something that's going to be paired with the general election in this province. Write

Carter 27:26

Write it down. This group is not going to come together.

Zain 27:29

I don't need to write shit down. I just said it to like thousands of people. It's not going to happen.

Zain 27:35

Let's try and be accurate. But why?

Zain 27:38

Why? This is what I'm asking you, genuinely. Why are you so cynical that this could actually amount to something? Even if they don't hit the mark, okay. But why are you cynical that this can plug into something? Because Danielle Smith's approval

Carter 27:50

is still in the 60s.

Carter 27:54

Because we're fucked. That's divorced. So this is not divorced. This is not divorced. They're divorced.

Carter 28:01

These things don't divorce. These things work hand in hand.

Carter 28:05

And they're going to come together. Daniel Smith's approval is

Zain 28:06

is in the 60s, so this group shouldn't organize? What am I missing here, Carter? This

Carter 28:11

This group shouldn't be organizing. The group that's not organizing is the NDP in Alberta.

Zain 28:19

that's not organizing. I've got four strategy questions. Shan, I'll let you react to this, but I want to set the table for our listeners in terms of where I want to go and for the two of you. you. I've got four strategy questions here, or just topics I want to hit on that

Zain 28:29

that are interesting. The NDP is one of them, Carter, so you hit on it. I want to talk about their strategy here and how they think about their world and their universe. I use the term plug-in. How do they plug into this? Do they plug into this? Do they do their own thing? What does their universe around this question need to look like? That's question one. I do want to talk for a second about Thomas Lukaszek, because he is a person with a profile that is now getting a bigger profile a decade or or so later from what you would think was his political high watermark. So I want to talk about that for half a second. I

Zain 29:01

I do want to talk about the premier strategy here. As you know, she's been wedged on the question of whether she'd sign this thing. I want to talk about that for a bit. And then finally, I want to talk about the rest of Canada. What sort of PR effort needs to happen to try to broadcast this petition to the rest of Canada? We are talking about Canada at its core, as much as we're talking about Alberta. Does it matter if the rest of the country knows about this? And does Alberta operate in the same way that Canada does, which is if people outside of your four walls are talking about it, you start to notice more. So I want to talk about those four strategy questions in some way. But before any of that, Shannon, I'll let you react to what Carter's put down thus far in my back and forth with him right now. Well,

Shannon 29:37

first, I agreed with Carter that I wasn't sure about this strategy. But, you know, it turns out people don't listen to us. And so they went forward and did it. Now that the horse is out of the barn and it is happening, um

Shannon 29:52

i'm seeing some really really interesting things happening on the ground i'm seeing it in rural communities where you

Shannon 29:59

you don't want this question filtered through a partisan lens uh you actually do want uh some you

Zain 30:06

you mean a new democrat one in this case yeah yeah right

Shannon 30:07

right like because you're getting all kinds of old farmers that will absolutely sign the petition because they believe that all british remain in canada and they're they're not convinced on you know know the separatist stuff uh that's coming under the ucp but they probably think you know in the main conservatives uh exist in edmonton to kind of send you know ottawa a message right uh

Shannon 30:27

uh but it's it's reaching those folks and it's also giving hope and enthusiasm to the people who are and because those people are within the ndp universe whether they are in uh edmonton or in claire's home uh and it's it's giving them something to do and feeling like they are doing something and in In this day and age, feeling like you're doing something, like you're getting any traction whatsoever, is very, very tough to find in politics, that feeling of common cause with one another. And so that's

Shannon 30:57

that's the gift that it gives. As for what the NDP should be doing in this, I do think that they should be not exactly hiding from these petition gathering, you know, signature gathering exercises. exercises i think that their mlas should be registered canvassers uh and collecting signatures because i just think it's a nice way to interact with your constituents like it's low stakes and the people especially if you're talking to your already identified you know supporters leaners or undecideds uh from the last election then you've got something again for people to do and a clear thing uh to engage on i don't think they need to be you

Shannon 31:34

you know uh carrying the uh storming the barricades on this and, you know, carrying it forward. I think it's fine that it's Lukasik.

Shannon 31:44

But now that it's happening, I think it's good for the NDP to have, again, that sense of connection to what their engaged constituents think about, their activist base, right? The base voters are different than the activist base. And the activist base is, believe me, is engaged on this in New Democrat land. I have seen them all over the groups, and I see them, and there's all these names, and I'm like, yeah, of course I know that person. I know that person. When you go into their Facebook groups, it's the activist base that has got something to do, and that is awesome.

Zain 32:19

Carter, the New Democrat strategy.

Zain 32:22

Shannon makes an interesting point that Forever Canada's universe could be different. I'm not saying larger, but could be different than the NDP one, and should there be a way to plug those in ultimately, that this could be a strategy for for the NDP, where they are able to take advantage of that.

Zain 32:38

A, do you buy that? And B, what do you think the NDP strategy should be more writ large? Now that we are past the August threshold, we're seeing some of the activity happen with Forever Canada. What should the NDP doing here? I'll let you get a shot in both of those

Carter 32:50

those questions. I agree with Shannon in terms of the infiltration component.

Carter 32:54

I felt like the NDP should have infiltrated the Jyoti Gandak campaign in 2021 when

Carter 33:00

there was an opportunity for them to pick

Carter 33:02

pick up an awful lot of support, understand what the Calgary voters wanted, have voters and volunteers from across the city working with them. I think it would have made a difference in the subsequent provincial election that Rachel Notley lost, primarily in Calgary.

Carter 33:21

I also think that they should integrate more into the civic elections here in 2025. I

Carter 33:27

I think that infiltration and co-opting of existing structures and strategies is great. They need to be doing it at every level. Can you

Zain 33:41

you walk me through that? What does that mean? I'm really curious what that means. Because I have something in my head, which is people who wear official orange shirts, proverbially, right? Just jumping into every campaign and collecting all their data and taking it back to the mothership. like but what that's that's what i think what do you mean no no what do you mean carter what i

Carter 34:01

is that you go in you go in and you join the campaign at a senior level because of any of these any of these viable marils any of these campaigns you

Carter 34:10

you join at a senior level you integrate with the people who aren't of your tribe and you and you get and you get to know their names you get to know who they are you exchange telephone numbers you build relationships you build your social network structure carter

Shannon 34:25

about something different though then like this forever canadian thing is like activist base it's not professionalized organizers it's just like it's literally elbows up boomers right and and they're just like give me something to do what carter's talking

Shannon 34:39

about the no no no one is believe me believe me no one organizes my mother my god that woman um but

Zain 34:47

let me tell you something i don't want to out this person and but this is a a person in my network, if

Zain 34:52

if I was given a list of 100 people randomly, I'd say, who could be potentially organizing, this person would not be on the list. I'd be like, what? No. No, that's crazy. And what I got was a phone call from that person being like, will you sign this? I'm like, you're asking me?

Zain 35:08

Not because I don't agree, but you're the one who's initiating the calls going this way? So I tend to agree with Shannon. There's something happening here, Carter. and maybe it's just anecdotal and maybe we're too plugged into this universe but I don't know if that's the case. I really don't. What Carter's talking about

Shannon 35:24

about is a different thing which is also important and probably should happen at

Shannon 35:29

at the professional levels

Zain 35:30

levels of the party. And I indulged him on that. Right? Yeah, yeah, yeah. I indulged him on that to kind of get a clear understanding of what he meant by infiltrate. He meant be on a campaign but he used the term infiltrate but that's fine. He likes to do that. Let

Carter 35:43

Let me just say that 8,000 signatures in a day in a 24-hour day means you're getting a signature every 10 seconds. If it's only eight hours a day, you're getting a signature every three seconds. So very impressive

Carter 35:55

impressive from that gentleman

Carter 35:56

gentleman or woman. Forever Canada, forever, forever,

Shannon 35:58

forever, forever sliding. It's possible he handed them in on one day but had, you know, taken a couple of weeks to gather them. No, but that's not what

Shannon 36:05

was said in the media.

Carter 36:08

click. I'm just noting

Carter 36:09

noting it. Go ahead and talk your talking points, my friend.

Zain 36:15

Carter, walk me through more, though. Walk me through more, because I interrupted you. I asked for clarification on what infiltrate meant. Okay. You agree with how Forever Canada, their aperture could be different than the New Democrat one. So you agree with that point. What should the NDP strategy be beyond that? Should they be starting their own campaign? Walk me through this. Should they be setting up their own sort of version of this? Should they be piggyback simply on this? Should they push the timeline, push the narrative? Should they be trying to use their muscular abilities, communications list-wise to push this? Give me some answers here. What would you be doing? Well,

Carter 36:53

I'd be probably saying, okay, if there is no real structure, then let's provide some structure and let's provide some structure through our own people, right? Let's assume that this ad hoc group can maybe get 150,000 signatures. Can the NDP generate 100,000 signatures within their own tribal

Carter 37:11

tribal subset using an actual organized structure, right,

Carter 37:16

right, where you've got captains

Carter 37:18

captains and lieutenants and people

Carter 37:23

marshalling larger groups? I mean, ultimately, politics is the largest pyramid scheme that

Carter 37:29

You're activating large groups of people in small groups. So you have to try and figure out how do we get 100,000 signatures. Jump in. Be a part of it. If you want to be a part of it, then fucking be a part of it. Shannon,

Zain 37:42

Shannon, anything to add on the NDP side? I'll move to the next sort of strategic question. What other roles that we have not talked about or tactics or strategies should the new Democrats here in Alberta be playing on this particular file?

Shannon 37:55

Well, I just, like I said before, you know, I went to the Ralph Klein School of Politics. If you see a parade, get in front of it. This isn't

Carter 38:05

Well, it is. It's not. It's going to be a flash in the pan. You're a Boomer Carter. Go online or on Facebook. book you'll see what all your boomer friends are doing

Carter 38:14

i've no i've seen it i've seen it now six or seven times with lineups of up to up to 15 or 20 people but

Shannon 38:22

but so i i i think that they need to find a way to plug in but uh there are some logistical and legal uh ways that they can't and that is fine i actually think that uh being able to uh up some of that enthusiasm gap that that you always get in the summer, that you always get midterm, using this, right, to like, you know, kind of gin up your base, gin up your MLAs, their riding associations, you know, like get your volunteers blood pumping a little bit. I think it can only be good. And like I said, I have heard anecdotally of people

Shannon 39:00

people signing this thing, you know, out at rodeo grounds in southern Alberta and places like that. that.

Shannon 39:06

They wouldn't do that if a new Democrat put the petition in front of their face. There's no question about that. But if it is seen that we are making common cause across a broad swath of Alberta society, that

Shannon 39:21

that also can only be to the good. I think in order to broaden the appeal a little bit, because right now we are still, you know, pretty urban, all of those things, and we have to be able, the party needs to be able to win in the small cities at the very minimum.

Zain 39:36

next strategy question. What's Lukaszek up to? Like, okay, he's clearly doing this thing. And I'm not saying that everyone has got an ulterior motive. But what's he up to is part A of the question. But part B is like, what could he be up to in the sense of what this profile may gather? Not this, I don't mean this profile, I mean that in a more general way, not this one Canadian press profile, that this profile could potentially be gathering him. Carter, what's he up to? What could this mean for him? I

Carter 40:01

I honestly think that he's doing this just because he believes that this is the right thing to be done.

Carter 40:06

not think that he's got a political second act in him. I don't think he comes back and runs for the leadership of the nascent near Alberta party that's going to have two MLAs and call themselves the progressive conservatives again. I

Carter 40:19

I don't think that his political world goes

Carter 40:23

any further. There's no jobs available. And I still think that this is going to be a bit of a flash in the pan. add.

Zain 40:30

Shannon, what do you think here?

Shannon 40:32

I don't know Thomas like Carter does. But from my vantage point, it looks like he just saw a job and decided to go and get it done. And I think

Shannon 40:44

think he likes to mix it up because people who have been in politics do enjoy mixing it up. That's why Ed Stelmack waited in. That's why Brian Mason waited in, Ray Martin even. There's all kinds of folks that have have endorsed this thing and that are, you know, again, they want to do something that's exciting and meaningful. So there may be, you know, people who get active in this thing who then see a role for themselves in politics. I don't know if that person is Thomas, and I don't know if it would be provincial or federal.

Shannon 41:21

days, you know, he worked hard on some federal liberal campaigns as well. He would fit comfortably in that tent.

Shannon 41:27

Um, and there's very few people that could, uh,

Shannon 41:30

uh, win a conservative seat, uh, in, in,

Shannon 41:33

in, uh, North Edmonton. He might be one of them. I

Shannon 41:36

I mean, I'm just totally speculating here, but, um, yeah,

Zain 41:38

yeah, this is, this is the reckless speculation part of the show, but there is a part B to this question, which is Carter Thomas has been a face. It's a, it's a person we are familiar with, if not know personally, it's a person that if you're a keen political observer and have been for the last decade in Alberta, you obviously know the man. And outside of that, maybe not a lot of profile might be a reintroduction or I think I remember him sort of glance from a lot of people. So my question becomes, who

Zain 42:03

who needs to be next? Can

Zain 42:05

Can this be the Thomas Lukasik show? I'm not saying it is, but can it be the Thomas Lukasik show? Or is there a face, a person, a archetype, you know, a composite profile that you can think of that should be the next sort of PR spokesperson, external voice on this thing on behalf of this group? And I'll give both of you a shot at this. You don't have to have a name in mind, but I'm just kind of curious where your head's at in terms of strategy here.

Carter 42:28

Well, I think that, you know, we saw with the Joe T. Gondek recall petition that Landon Johnson, I think, was his name that started up that petition. He basically remained the spokesperson, even though he didn't necessarily remain the person who was running most of the operations of the signature gathering. gathering um it was instead a um uh an exercise put together uh by landon taken over by others but landon remained the front i think that lakazic will remain the front i don't think that i don't think that taking that

Zain 43:02

that good strategy though is that good strategy though that's what i'm trying to get taking

Carter 43:06

taking him i don't think that taking it away from him is good strategy i think that that

Zain 43:10

that would be poor

Zain 43:12

not maybe not taking it away but introducing more spokespeople that's what what i'm trying to get to shannon i think give me your take here he

Shannon 43:18

he opens up a really good permission structure for people right because uh any of the like sort of basically chamber of commerce conservatives who uh might vote might have even voted ucp in 23 begrudgingly uh you know in spite of you know some of smith's wackier ideas um it allows them an outlet as well and allows them a way to plug in and you know lefties like me who are old enough to remember him uh are like okay fine right uh and actually seems like a pretty nice guy and

Shannon 43:50

so like we'll begrudgingly go along uh folks you

Shannon 43:55

know on the more progressive side um but uh people for whom we don't have a lot in common will also uh go along they he also has a steering committee he's done this thing right um that is you know kind

Shannon 44:08

across the spectrum he's soliciting a wide range of of views on on strategy and and and that kind and that is great right like uh people from the progressive conservative sort of universe people from the more like federal conservative like for the right kind of universe people from the liberals from you know from new democrats so he's he's also you

Shannon 44:29

you know like Like he's consulting widely. And so I think he's good for the moment in particular, because if he doesn't have any other partisan or other affiliation, he can just go at Smith, you know, in a more unrestrained way. And he's a good spokesperson for that, too.

Zain 44:49

brought up Smith. Let's let's talk about her. Shannon, I'll give you a take at this. Does she have a problem here with whether she'll sign this petition or not? Or is there an easy strategic out for her that she can kind of be done with this question? I'm not saying it's dogging her, but it is interesting that she was kind of mealy-mouthed about it and didn't have anything clear for someone who definitely knows how to get out of most situations. She wasn't really able to get out of this one. At least this is my reading. I'm curious what you think and what her strategy here should be as it relates to this ongoing petition. Well,

Shannon 45:20

Well, I don't know if she has a problem yet. that's the official opposition's job to make it a problem uh

Shannon 45:24

uh and i don't think any one of her caucus members or she herself should be able to go out in public without being asked if they're going to sign this petition if they want to remain in canada you

Zain 45:32

you you think you think it's good like soft tissue lack of a better term like you think it's a it's it's something to work on it's something i

Shannon 45:40

look around us right in terms of the media environment and the animating issues right it is it's a good one it's a wedge um you can cause problems within the caucus uh Uh, uh, you can cause, you know, uh, just irritation every time they want to stand up at a podium to announce, you know, uh, uh, new funding for something all through the fall. You

Carter 46:00

You can just like make

Shannon 46:01

make life irritating for them. And, uh, uh, they should be asked, uh, at every turn, are you going to sign this thing? Why don't you want to remain in Canada? What's wrong with you? You don't just sea lion troll them, uh, uh, into submission by the fall.

Carter 46:15

Sure. wedge and then she can become an official uh official uh uh

Carter 46:19

uh canvasser or whatever they're called the the the people picking up the signatures and just chase after danielle smith for the next three weeks uh you

Carter 46:29

you gotta sign this you gotta say i mean it's not a bad strategy to get some attention um and and attention is what he needs he's disappeared again he's disappeared again like i just don't understand i mean sure it's august uh and we shouldn't be recording the podcast anyways but um

Zain 46:45

um who's listening who's listening to this shit yeah

Carter 46:48

yeah i mean this is this is where we're we're really you know nenshi needs to get some attention he needs to be on the front pages of some of some uh some rags and he and he just hasn't put himself in that position

Zain 47:00

carter does the rest of canada need to know about this what's the strategy what's the strategy play for like national media for the rest of the universe canadian universe i should say knowing knowing about this, being engaged, dialing into Alberta, making like, does that matter here? Or is this, as Shannon would say, local boomer, grassroots, self-organized enough? And we all clearly have different definitions of what enough means, see first half of the show. But what do you, I'm trying to understand what your play would be for engaging the rest of the country on this file. I

Carter 47:35

I wouldn't really worry too much about engaging the rest of the country. I We poured some gasoline on that fire. I would just keep it nice and local. I'm sure the national news networks and national newspapers will cover it when it flames out and doesn't get its 290,000 signatures.

Zain 47:59

Shannon, what do you think? What's the play for the rest of the country on this particular signature collection petition campaign? campaign i

Shannon 48:06

usually wish that they will stay out of it kind of like i wish um once i see american news coverage of canada i i wish that they didn't write it um because it's usually wrong and a caricature of us and the same goes for some of these national unity questions when you know toronto cbc comes out to you know the innisfail rodeo and goes on safari right it has it is very very strong sort of Pennsylvania diner vibes to it. I can't stand it. They go out and find like someone who's like a card carrying separatist who's been like a spokesperson for this or the convoy movement. And they're like, here's a guy off the street. It's crazy making. So certainly national organizations should stay far, far away from it because there's nothing

Shannon 48:50

that might piss an Albertan off more than being told by somebody, quote unquote, out east, how to think about these matters. But number two, it

Shannon 49:00

it doesn't involve them at all, right? You

Zain 49:05

You wouldn't be seeking it. If you were on this campaign, Shannon, you wouldn't be seeking it

Shannon 49:09

it either, right? No, this is the last thing I would want. It would be the kiss of death to have some, you know, retired central Canadian politician come in and tell us what's what on this topic of any stripe. Extremely unhelpful.

Shannon 49:23

And certainly Danielle Smith, if she has a political problem, she'll be waiting for something like that to happen.

Zain 49:30

We're going to leave that segment there, move it on to our over, under, and our lightning round. Stephen Carter, it's almost your bedtime. It is past my bedtime.

Carter 49:36

bedtime. I'm ready to

Zain 49:36

to go. Which is why, Mr. Stephen Carter, we're going to start. Only two questions. Well, one of them will involve a bit of math for you. Sure. Carter, the number is 293,976. That is the number that

Zain 49:51

that Thomas Lukasik and co. need.

Zain 49:53

Carter, what number will they get?

Zain 50:00

Stephen Carter has actually had a 1,000 batting record on this. Every prediction he's made has been my dis-touch is what we call them. Right.

Zain 50:09

Do you want to compete with that?

Shannon 50:10

No, I don't know what the rules

Zain 50:12

rules are. I'm going to force you to. I'm going to force you to. What's the number? Oh,

Shannon 50:14

Oh, I'm going to say that they're in the 160, 170 range.

Zain 50:19

160 to 170. So neither of you think they're going to get hit the 200 mark or even get close to 293? No.

Shannon 50:26

I'm going to be cautiously optimistic, but it's just, you know, when you actually do the math, to Carter's point about how many signatures you have to get per minute in order to do it, it's tough. It's really tough.

Zain 50:38

8,000 a day. If you just do 8,000 a day, you could be done very

Zain 50:42

very quickly. One would think. Well, it's not

Carter 50:44

not actually even that. It's only 2,450 a day. But

Carter 50:49

But it gets harder when you go through each day.

Carter 50:52

Yeah. Right. Each day gets more and more challenging. And at some point you run through the people who are willing to line up at the Sobeys parking lot with Shannon Phillips. No,

Carter 51:03

No, I wasn't there. My

Carter 51:04

My mother was there. Your

Zain 51:08

Final question. Stephen Carter recording at the end of August here. Which Canadian politician, any stripe, any order of government has had the best summer? This was the summer of, insert Canadian politician's name here. Easy one. Who was it for you? Was it easy one? Easy one. Lay it on me. Who was it and why? Pierre

Carter 51:29

Pierre Palliev got a seat in the House of Commons. That's got to be the story of the summer.

Carter 51:34

I mean, sure, Mark Carney's out trying to negotiate world peace, but-

Zain 51:39

World peace, is that what

Zain 51:40

we're calling it? Yeah,

Carter 51:41

Yeah, that's what we're calling it. Okay.

Carter 51:42

Okay. But instead, we got Pierre Palliev winning in the easiest riding in Canada.

Zain 51:49

Okay, so Stephen Carter is titling his summer album The Summer of Pierre Pauliev. Shannon Phillips, it

Zain 51:55

it was a summer of who?

Shannon 51:58

Not only does he remain the most popular premier in Canada,

Shannon 52:03

but in the context of a deteriorating fiscal picture, an employment picture for everyone,

Shannon 52:09

theirs is not as bad as projected, which is pretty good. Number three, we know Porter Churchill now is going to be one of the first projects designated by

Shannon 52:21

by the Kearney government under C5. There's lots of new interest in Manitoba as a level of government that can do business with the federal government that also has many of the Indigenous components in place to be able to attract those new forms of investment. They've got critical minerals coming out their ears. and Wapkanu, you know, they're going through a by-election in a super safe conservative seat right now. They're even running a little campaign there because they have the bandwidth to be able to do it. Wapkanu is far and away the best political athlete in this country and he set his province up for success over the course of this summer.

Carter 53:03

I'm not buying that. I didn't see him.

Zain 53:05

You're not buying it? I think that Pierre

Carter 53:07

Pauliev was a much stronger answer.

Zain 53:09

Okay, you do. Yeah, of course you would. But we're going to leave it there. That's a wrap on episode 1882 of The Strategist. My name is Zane Velge. With me, as always, Stephen Carter, Shannon Phillips, and we shall see you next time.

Transcript