Episode 1864: Fight worthy

Annalise 0:02

Welcome to The Strategist, episode 1864. I am your host, Annalise Klingbeil, and with you, as always, Stephen Carter and Zain Velji.

Carter 0:12

Well, it is morning. Oh, my light just went out. That's going to create video problems that no one's going to see on our videos.

Annalise 0:20

should turn that back on. How are you guys this morning? I'm

Carter 0:23

I'm doing great. I'm doing great. I hung out with Corey all week and made fun of him. I had a nice chat about how he's going to lose. He didn't like that at all. You know, like the actual where the vote would have to come from for if he was going to lose. He didn't like it. He's so into himself. He can't do the theory anymore. He's not a strategist. He's a candidate, and it's embarrassing to watch. What's

Annalise 0:47

What's he doing all day? You've got him just knocking doors day in, day out, 12 hours a day, Carter? Oh,

Carter 0:53

no, no. We've got him making telephone calls in the morning. So he calls volunteers all morning. And then in the afternoon, he goes and knocks doors.

Carter 1:01

And then in the evening, he knocks doors. And then sometimes we put an event on afterwards.

Zain 1:05

sounds miserable, by the way. Oh, it's terrible. Oh, my God. How's

Annalise 1:09

How's he enjoying that? I did a door-knocking shift for him last night, a couple hours. Yeah.

Annalise 1:14

How's he enjoying the many hours on the doors? He

Carter 1:17

He seems to enjoy it. He's coming back energized. He seems to, and this is the weirdest part, enjoy talking to the people, which

Zain 1:27

really weird. Do they enjoy talking to him? No,

Carter 1:28

No, not really. That's

Zain 1:29

That's the real question.

Carter 1:30

really. Okay, that makes sense. We try to keep them. If we can get people to talk to Annalise, we're doing very well.

Annalise 1:37

A lot of people were not home yesterday. A lot of not homes and a lot of no doorbells. Is this a new thing in house design? A lot of no doorbells. Yeah. Well,

Carter 1:46

Well, we have a doorbell that doesn't work, and we've had a doorbell that doesn't work for two-plus years, and I find that to be extremely efficient.

Zain 1:55

That's good. I like this. It's like the newest innovation in doorbells are doorbells that don't work. So it's like we've come full circle. We've come from analog doorbell to ring doorbell to doorbells that don't work. And that is where we're at right now. So it's a good analogy for our times, Carter, and why we're probably so alone. Because Annalise is ready to talk to you, but

Zain 2:14

but no one's home.

Carter 2:15

No, she didn't door knock.

Zain 2:16

Am I the only one that hasn't done a door knock shift for Corey Hogan because I'm too busy with the Jagmeet Singh write-in campaign in Calgary Confederation?

Annalise 2:24

Zane, you've got to go out. No, Corey's got a lot of strategist fans who come out to knock for him. I don't want to meet people. They would like it. They would like to see you there.

Carter 2:34

Big day tomorrow, Zane. Big day. We're trying to get a couple hundred people. Plug

Annalise 2:37

Plug it, Carter. A

Carter 2:38

A couple hundred people out, you know, to flood the zone.

Zain 2:42

Oh, is tomorrow flood the red zone?

Zain 2:47

have you not called it flood the red zone? Now

Carter 2:50

Now that you've mentioned it, that's way better.

Zain 2:53

Because you know what the red zone is, right? In football. The red zone is the final 20 yards before you score a touchdown. So floodtheredzone.ca is another campaign expense that you're going to have to pay for. We

Carter 3:04

We can't afford these.

Zain 3:05

these. I mean, the podcast can afford it, but it's not a podcast expense. It's a campaign expense at this point.

Carter 3:11

Yeah, I know. And the problem is that we've actually spent almost to the limit. So we have to be very careful on our nickels and dollars here.

Zain 3:20

here. I love if Corey wins and then there's a Dean Del Mastro situation.

Zain 3:25

That tracks them along.

Carter 3:26

Listen, people can go to CoreyHogan.ca. Is that a deep cut, or do people

Zain 3:28

people know that? I'm

Carter 3:29

I'm actually going to answer Annalisa's question, which

Carter 3:32

which is that people can go to CoreyHogan.ca, and there's some event page. And other websites, too.

Annalise 3:37

too. There's other ones, too, right? FloodTheZone.ca. The one with the Google Doc? Yeah, FloodTheRedZone.ca.

Annalise 3:44

It's going to be a good weekend. It's

Annalise 3:46

It's going to be epic. People

Zain 3:46

People don't understand. Zane,

Annalise 3:47

Zane, you fill in the Google Doc. No,

Zain 3:49

No, if you split the progressive vote with the write-in campaign for the leader of the progressive party, you're actually helping Corey. Just do the math in your head. Yeah.

Zain 3:57

I got the math from the Pure Poly F platform. Trust me. It checks out. A lot of

Carter 4:02

Oh, good for you. That is. Okay.

Annalise 4:05

Guys, let's chat about things other than Corey, unless you have any more plugs there, Carter. You're forbidden from predictions on this episode. It's becoming a ritual. Anything else? Plug

Carter 4:13

Plug in, Corey. I

Annalise 4:14

I think we're doing the

Carter 4:15

night prediction episode, aren't we? Are we going to do the Sunday night prediction episode? Yeah, no

Annalise 4:19

no predictions this episode. Riding by riding. We've got a couple days. Riding

Carter 4:25

them. Every single one.

Annalise 4:27

It's going to be a really fun

Carter 4:28

fun Sunday night. It's going to be a lot of fun. I think that we should do that. Every single

Carter 4:32

I'm loving that idea. Okay.

Annalise 4:33

Okay. You've got no more plugs for your Paul Corey Hogan there.

Carter 4:36

No, no. I mean, basically, I think we're all just hoping this thing ends. You know what's amazing is we started on- We're

Annalise 4:42

We're all hoping it ends. Yeah. Because it could just not end on Monday. April

Carter 4:46

April 1st, we started. It was going to be 28 days, and we thought, that's a nice length. And now that we're at the 25th day, it's like, wow, 28 days is just a little too long.

Carter 4:56

It's too long. You've

Annalise 4:56

You've got three days left. We'll talk about the final weekend of the campaign here. You guys got to pace yourself. I'll show

Zain 5:01

show up on Monday.

Annalise 5:03

Monday, we have a huge one. Knocked doors Monday night. I'll

Zain 5:05

I'll be at the victory party.

Zain 5:08

course, you will. Here's the thing. People will give you just as much credit if I show up on Monday or if I'd been there the whole time, Carter. I

Zain 5:15

And that's the maximum amount of credit. Yeah. It's the maximum amount of credit.

Annalise 5:19

That's what you deserve, Zane. People like you. These are the vibes I got yesterday from the many super fans that I talked to who door-knocked for Corey Hogan. Big Zane fan. Big Corey fan. Carter, not as much. Carter

Zain 5:30

Carter doesn't want fans. He wants sycophants. And so that's a small group of people.

Zain 5:35

Carter's here to start a cult. We're all here to monetize the podcast. None of us thought that Corey would be the first to do it by running for office. You

Carter 5:43

You know what the worst part is? Day 25. When I'm in the office and Corey's not in the office, I get thrown the people, the gen pop to walk in. They want to talk about, you know, what Corey's positions are and Corey's policies. And I'm like, well, and they're like, oh, you should meet Stephen, his fellow host of the Strategist podcast. And I'm like, don't meet me. I'm not someone who wins votes. I'm not here to win people's affection. Don't let Carter talk to gen pop.

Carter 6:09

Tragic. Yesterday was dropped for 24 minutes. We're talking to one guy. One vote. About what?

Carter 6:15

What were you talking about?

Carter 6:16

We were talking about whether, you know, he can't vote for someone he hasn't met.

Carter 6:21

And I said, well, Corey's not here, so you'll have to talk to me. And he left saying he was going to vote for Corey. I don't remember specifically what we talked about. It was so inane, but.

Annalise 6:32

You convinced him. I

Annalise 6:34

Quality 24 minutes, Carter. That's how long it takes you to convince someone

Carter 6:37

someone to vote for Corey. The Orange Pufferfish is what he called Trump. The

Carter 6:41

The Orange Pufferfish. That's a good

Carter 6:44

Yeah. That's got a

Zain 6:45

Before we move on, I have a media relations question for you. How do we get a process story about Corey written about how there is one perfect, absolutely perfect, no other way to describe it, bus bench in the city that no campaign can get? Because

Zain 7:05

Because it's currently advertising a

Zain 7:07

a fake neighborhood by

Annalise 7:10

liberal candidate. it it's

Annalise 7:12

it's still there it's been how long it's been like over a year two years how long has that story on how long has it been there created

Zain 7:18

created a new community i don't know why that's not even on the fucking brochures carter yeah he's

Annalise 7:22

he's there he's fathered three children and

Zain 7:25

and a new community yeah

Annalise 7:27

yeah and he's the only one that calls it che the thing is the the media is as you know interested in uh in cory but the day that he launched i got several calls saying like is this is real like because it was april fools it was really fitting and they weren't like we want to do a story i mean like hey sure can you please confirm to me that this is real and like it's april fools so like please just tell me the legit i

Zain 7:51

i bet i bet we still have five listeners who think this is an elaborate joke that we've taken all the patreon money and have created a

Zain 7:59

a a nathan Ethan Fielder style campaign for Corey, where it will ultimately be revealed that he wins because it's part of the script and then has to figure out how he serves at government. It's it's it's that's the season two. It's good. I feel like I feel like we should have done that.

Annalise 8:15

Who says we're not doing that, Zane? Exactly.

Zain 8:18

Exactly. It's good. It's like that Joaquin

Annalise 8:20

thing. Just see this. OK, guys, speaking of the orange puffer fish, let's let's talk about Donald Trump. He has inserted himself again in the election. I felt like it was a bit at the beginning. It's been a little bit quiet, not on tariffs, obviously, but a little bit quiet. And then Wednesday, he's chatting with reporters, brings up 51st State again. And then we see the Radio Canada leak yesterday and the stories from there. So I want to talk about this. Carter, what is your take here on the fact that we're talking about Trump again?

Carter 8:55

Well, I mean, it's a gift wrap. It's a gift given to Mark Carney, for sure. Just a fantastic opportunity for Carney to stand up again to the big bully from the United States. And it wipes Pierre Polyev off the front pages at a time when he needs to be on the front pages. It's nothing new, ironically, right? Like there is no particular new news here. I mean, he was talking about the 51st state. Well, before the election started, he's talking about the 51st state. now at the very end of the of the election and the fact the only thing that has changed is that he was quiet um

Carter 9:33

and then of course the confirmation from carney that they

Carter 9:36

they did talk about 51st state um

Carter 9:38

um you know a month ago uh during their telephone call but this is a uh it's it's just a gift to carney i don't understand what trump is thinking or i guess he's not thinking at all he doesn't think at all about the internal politics of Canada. And he just rumbles through and, you know, he wanted to get a hit in on Governor Trudeau, which he says, you know, respectfully

Carter 10:03

respectfully and not quite jokingly, however he phrased it. I just think that he's just a

Carter 10:12

buffoon who continues to create opportunities for the Liberal Party of Canada.

Annalise 10:18

Zane, to piggyback off what What Carter's saying there, what is Trump thinking? He's seemingly been disciplined and been quiet on this subject. And then Wednesday, as Carter says, nothing new, but the Carney campaign's done a good job of making things new with a lot of headlines about the call. So we'll start with the Trump part. What do you think he's thinking here?

Zain 10:41

I wouldn't call it discipline because I don't think it can credit it as that. I bet he just forgot about the fact that he had mentioned it and then went back to his Rolodex of greatest hits and realized, oh, fuck, this one hasn't been played for a while or no one's talked to me about it. So I don't credit him with any sort of like political sort of discipline or any of the Internet rumors that, you know, the conservatives have gotten into Trump and then told him to lay it now so they can have their affordability. Like, no, I don't believe any of that shit. it. And the fact is that right now Carter's right on the top line that any sort of injection of Trump into the campaign is definitely useful and helpful. But I also contend with another thing you'd kind of put on the table that the liberal campaign has done a good job of kind of leveraging it. In fact, I think like unless it's been fucking new and explicit, like this most recent comment The liberal campaign hasn't been all that good at taking raw material from Trump 30 days ago, 25 days ago, and extending it into the back half of this campaign. In fact, I think that's been a fundamental weakness to which we could now see a potential minority government because Quebec's kind of maybe being desensitized or forgetting about the scope of the threat. So, yeah, Carney's super lucky, continues to be. I mean, we talked about this every week since the last three, but fuck me, right? And he continues to be lucky, not just because Trump is getting him fresh content with saying the same shit over and over to reinforce to people that this threat is still real, but he continues to be lucky that yesterday, which I think was

Zain 12:17

was a really fascinating day with the Radio Canada or the RADCAN report. Because to me, that was like Corey talks about Rorschach test. That was one. If you if you are against Carney, that story was very much look at this deceitful, untrustworthy leader. And if you were for Carney, the thing was, well, the core story here is that this is a guy with discretion, took Trump's sort of bluster and kind of parked that to its side, didn't mention it because that would actually be obviously manipulating the election and went with the facts that Trump respected our sovereignty. So look at how – what a great, discreet, reliable, sensible leader he is. I also think yesterday's story was a nice proxy to your like headspace as a progressive campaigner or a liberal campaigner. If you felt like that was negative, you're probably more anxious about the future. And if you felt like that was a story to – that was very much a sword, you were definitely more assertive about the future. And I mean the future as in the next couple of days trying to wrap this thing up. But once again, I think that story, should it have landed 10 days ago, really would have had enough time and legs to be able to have the untrustworthy argument be made by all of the parties because you would have seen all of them jump on it. It could have been the core of a new ad campaign. It could have been the core of a new microsite. It could have been the core of a new leaflet. You can do a lot in 10 days in a campaign. And then, Carter, it becomes impossible to do anything in two days on a campaign, especially when people are voting on Monday. So once again, a story that more than likely, I don't know this, probably was leaked from internal liberal sources or liberal friendly sources to inject the Trump question. I think that was a poor call, should that have been the case. And if that was the case, doesn't harm Carney, because I think it was a complete error for them to have that narrative out there, so to speak, should they have put it out there themselves.

Annalise 14:08

Carter, timing-wise, do you think it should

Annalise 14:11

should have been earlier, could have been earlier?

Carter 14:15

don't know. I think this is a good timing for it. I think coming in this late on the campaign,

Carter 14:22

campaign, you want something to change the channel. I think that ultimately,

Carter 14:28

ultimately, if this is the Conservatives behind this, it isn't serving their end. The Conservatives were actually, I think, doing better on their own message structure in their own message frame. They don't need this. They didn't need to change the channel. But I think this is more of an opportunity for the liberals and

Carter 14:50

when Trump opened the door, they walked right through it. So I think that this more likely came from the liberal side. Isn't

Zain 14:59

Isn't that crazy to you, Carter? I think that's such a fundamental miscalculation on their part. I don't.

Zain 15:06

I think the risk is so much higher to have a core virtue of your candidate be undermined. I think the timing of it is really helpful because there's not much time on the clock in order for that to happen. But you already had the Trump 51st state comments go out loud. You didn't need this. So to me, this was all risk. And frankly, like, I

Zain 15:29

I don't want to use the term like cynical because I feel like that like discounts a lot. But like but

Zain 15:34

but it was I just think it was a poor strategic move. I just think it was a poor strategic move that could have should have not been the fucking luckiest man in the world have had the opportunity to damage him because it should have because it should it should undercut the trust narrative. I know many people are in that second category that I described, which is, you know, this speaks to a guy who's got good discretion, good judgment, good temperament, didn't mention it on the day because it wasn't necessary, it wasn't productive, it wasn't how we negotiate, all good points, points that I actually agree with in part. But from a political perspective, this should be damaging and it isn't. And this could be a complete own goal by the liberals to that regard. I

Carter 16:18

I just don't think of it. I don't see it as that negative the way that you are describing it. I see this as, you

Carter 16:25

know, just a guy who stood up for Canada who doesn't think that it's worthwhile mentioning Donald Trump's lunacy.

Zain 16:33

Okay, so you and I can be aligned on that, but the liberals initiating it, right? The story coming out and the liberal response, no problem, right? Should have been organic sources or reported deeply or came from the Americans. But now I'm entering speculation nation, which I'm fine to do so. But should this have been engineered by the Liberals? I don't understand the play. That's all I'm trying to say, Carter. I just don't understand the strategic play. Okay,

Annalise 16:55

Okay, play that out, Carter. If it was engineered by the Liberals, what is the strategic play to introduce it and bring it up on the Thursday, have it dominate headlines on the Thursday before the vote on Monday? This

Carter 17:06

This is a guy who knows how to deal with Donald Trump. You don't necessarily need to mention his lunacy all the time. You

Carter 17:12

You have him talk about the 51st date. That's fine, but let's get back to the actual brass

Carter 17:20

brass tacks of the situation. And the brass tacks are Canada's not going to become the 51st state. Let's talk about tariffs. Let's talk about the issues that matter. Let's talk about making sure that our economies move forward.

Carter 17:32

Mark Carney's not taking this guy at his word. He's instead taking him at less

Carter 17:38

less than face value and trying to create something that has lasting value for Canadians. um

Carter 17:45

there is no point there

Carter 17:48

is no point in taking the the position of you know trump saying that there's a 51st we're going to be the 51st state and trump try and you

Carter 17:57

you know talking about trumpeting it across the nation until he brings it up again and then it leaks out and that leak just

Carter 18:04

just solidifies the positioning that you're the one who who knows how to deal with trump and that's i think what the message is not what Zane's talking about in terms of less trustworthy because he wasn't talking about it immediately. Zane,

Annalise 18:16

Zane, why do you think it's all risk? And I'll play into what Carter's saying here. But if the thought, for the casual observer who, you know, has an advanced footage last weekend, and they see this, and once again, we're talking about Trump, and then we're talking about that ballot box question of who is better to face Trump. Tell me about how you see it as all risk. risk?

Zain 18:39

I don't see it as all risk. I think it's like one of those 60-40, 70-30s, right? Like, I do see Carter's argument. In fact, I agree with quite a bit of it. Like, as a person who's in the bubble of this political universe, I actually respect the move. Like, not the political move of this leak. I respect Carney not mentioning Trump talking about 51st state, extracting all the positives, keeping the other part aside, probably helped the Trump response. Definitely, it was It was savvy. It was smart. It was a good move. So don't get me wrong. I appreciate what the PM did. What I'm trying to say at this moment is that you already had a fresh Trump 51st

Zain 19:21

51st state on the table. And any value that this story could have given you would

Zain 19:26

would have probably been 70% downside on the trust question, which is a core construct of why you are there. I trust you to do this because they don't know him. They still don't know him. There is a blind trust that many people are applying to Mark Carney in this election, right? We still don't—we have not had the microscopic examination of Mark Carney, even to the extent of the Brits did during his time as central bank governor. Canada Land ran an interesting episode the other day, and you might think of this as just a— Canada

Zain 19:58

Canada what? Canada Land? It's a podcast? No,

Zain 20:02

of it. Yeah, that still continues to somehow thrive.

Zain 20:06

about Carney's temperament, which I thought was really interesting,

Zain 20:09

right? Where they talked about, you know, how in the Canadian terms, mild-mannered central banker. In the UK terms, well-documented as a guy who has a temper. Okay. Like, I don't think it's material, but it's interesting. It's just, it speaks to the broader point. We have not fully seen this guy, right? We don't have, we don't know all of the stuff just yet. There is trust. Significant millions of Canadians are putting trust in Mark Carney. And I think fundamentally

Zain 20:36

fundamentally putting a story out there that has any chance of undercutting trust might actually be a larger question than Trump. And so that's kind of my thinking on this, especially when you had the story and the Trump sort of 51st state already there. You don't need another shot in the arm. It's good for another five days. You're fine. You have enough to ride it through to Monday. You didn't need this if you engineered this. So

Annalise 21:01

So are we are we all going to agree that we think obviously we don't know the leak came from the liberals?

Zain 21:08

I initially was so skeptical. I had I had a conservative friend text me being like, this is fucking nuts. I'm like, what are you talking about? I don't think. And then the more I thought about it, and perhaps this was logical to others from the beginning, of course, this came to liberals. The more I think it is probably the case that they had this in their back pocket and campaigns often do this, Carter, right? They have stuff in their back pocket. And when they have no time on the clock, what do they do? Most of them don't have the discipline enough to say, okay, this will never see the light of day. Most of them fucking throw it out there because they've been spending time, effort. They've been just thinking about it. And I remember this is on the NDP campaign, 2019, the campaign we knew we were going to lose, that the last five days of the campaign, everything

Zain 21:51

everything was thrown out there, like everything. It's just like, okay, we have it. It's not about what's strategic at this point. It's the fact that we spent so much time unearthing it, either having it, sourcing it, verifying it, talking to people to do it. So everything's got to go out there. And I feel like this may have been part of that sort of technique, like, oh, do we still have that back pocket Trump phone call thing? Fuck it. Throw it out there. Is

Annalise 22:14

Is it not like

Annalise 22:16

like a wildly different calculation than the 2019 NDP campaign where you're saying you guys knew you were behind, you knew you didn't have a chance? No, I

Zain 22:23

I think campaigns just have the same sort of culture. I don't think a lot of campaigns have discipline. We've seen this liberal sort of campaign struggle to get their mojo in the second half while simultaneously struggle to like figure out and tune their war room. It wasn't too long ago that we were talking about shitty buttons at the Manning Center conference, right? So, no, I don't think it's about whether you're ahead or behind. I think campaigns, regardless of their status, have a certain sort of culture where people have done work and they want that work to see the light of day sort of thing and find some breathing room somewhere in the conversation. I suspect, I could be wrong, Carter could tell me that he disagrees with this assessment, the speculative assessment, but I suspect this kind of falls into that category. If something we had, and wouldn't it be a shame if we lost and didn't play it? Do

Annalise 23:09

Do you think, Carter? Like, I'm so fascinated by this because where is the discipline or the person who's like, no, we're not doing this. It's too risky.

Zain 23:20

Carter's risk has been different than mine. So he may have just been like, fuck it. If we have it, why wouldn't we do it? I don't know if that's what you say. I think that they

Carter 23:25

they had an expectation that when the 51st date thing came up again, this would be something that they would leak.

Zain 23:32

They would tag on. Right.

Carter 23:32

Right. Right. And they didn't necessarily think, OK, it's three days left. Is this what's the what's the metric? This was put into the strategy, the strategy, the situation happened and they called the play. That, to me, makes the most sense. Right. The 51st state door was reopened by Donald Trump. Out came the Mark Carney thing. They think it helps them. Others may solidify themselves in a negative spot. but overall this is a 60-40 issue and 60 is better than 40 so they jump you guys

Annalise 24:06

guys have you guys have been in these back rooms having these conversations are they as simple as that carter or do you have that person being like no this is too risky let's not do this you're

Carter 24:14

you're in the bubble so deep right now you're almost always going to do what the play what you called the play six weeks ago because you have to write the strategy okay

Carter 24:24

six weeks ago and then determine what what happens because Because you're in so deep in the bubble, you don't know what's going on. Let's say,

Zain 24:31

say, Carter, this came out two weeks ago.

Zain 24:33

Would you consider it a shitty play then?

Zain 24:37

See, I think we're just on different pages in terms of the risk here. I

Carter 24:41

60-40, and I love 60-40s.

Zain 24:43

Yeah, 60-40 the other way.

Carter 24:45

Why do you love 60-40s? 60-40s are fantastic because you can solidify the other guy's 40%. That's fine. All day long, you want to solidify the other guy's 40%. But you want to grow your 40%. So you get 20% more. I even will go with 50-50s. 50-50s are fantastic. You just need to do what you, you know, you get a bump when there's 50-50. So half the population may be screaming at you that you've done the wrong thing. But the other half is saying this is the right thing.

Carter 25:14

Do you have examples,

Annalise 25:14

examples, Carter, of recent 50

Carter 25:17

We're dealing with it right now on the housing piece in Calgary. Even in Edmonton, right? You've got this new housing rezoning bylaws that have taken place and enable up to eight residences on a single plot of land of a certain size. And half

Carter 25:38

half the population hates it.

Carter 25:41

Fantastic. Half the population either doesn't care or loves it.

Carter 25:45

And I think that you can be on one side of that. and if there's three people or four people on the other side, then you're sitting pretty, right?

Carter 25:54

right? You're sitting pretty.

Zain 25:56

If this is what I've come up two weeks ago from today, two Fridays ago, let's say it that way. Carter and I, if we were on the campaign, the liberal campaign, we would have had a fight about this. This would have been one of those. I would have won. And I think justifiably so. I think this would have been an issue. And I'm really curious if people have feedback. I think this would have been an issue where it becomes trust versus Trump. Do you want to undermine your trust, right, and your lack of disclosure? And it's – by the way, to be clear, I'm going to say it again. I respect the move, but politics is not actually about the move that Carney made. It's about what people can mold into it. And two weeks is enough on the clock that the NDP can get a couple of points back and the conservatives can do what they have not been able to do, which is find a lane on Carney. It wouldn't have been worth the risk. I would have made that point very, very loudly two weeks ago. I would have made it less loudly with three days to go, right? But I would have still made it. But two weeks ago, it's a no-brainer for me that this is like fight-worthy in front of the campaign team.

Annalise 26:59

Zaini, get into that. You've been in those back rooms. This is fight-worthy. So that's just you passionately, loudly advocating for your— No, I don't

Zain 27:07

loud. Just to be clear, I would have told

Zain 27:10

Carter once a dumb— Just passively. Calm and thoughtful. Passively thought it in my head and then told the media afterwards that I knew this was the wrong table.

Annalise 27:19

no but what what is that what is that like for those people listening you haven't really interesting

Zain 27:25

so it's really interesting and i'll and i'll say this without insulting a personality like carter's but carter's personality

Zain 27:35

think there is carter follows a a campaign personality that i think um because of his track record and because because of how confidently he says things, it's less about, and you see this across the board, Carter, on campaigns. You've probably met the version of yourself prior to you becoming yourself, right? And I say this just in service of the listeners, that that persona of like, and that personality, and rightfully so, to Carter's sort of credit, because you need to get shit done. It's less about what do we think of this idea when they bring up a play like this Let's use this one as an example. And it's more so a anyone

Zain 28:14

anyone want to take me on on this? And

Zain 28:17

And that's how you may not see it that way. But even for other folks who have that sort of campaign guru, sort of like this person gets shit done, look at the legend of this person. And there's maybe a dozen of them in Canadian politics. I don't fit into that category. Carter certainly does. yet you

Annalise 28:34

don't fit in yet zane no but i also don't sell yourself short no

Zain 28:37

no no but i also i also think it's fundamentally different because i don't i don't fit into that personality i don't fit into that that that category for two reasons number one it's the accolades etc like applaud to all those people right and some of them drift on they're like fucking two decade long accolades or one win that they had 10 years ago but but secondly

Carter 28:53

secondly it's personality though

Zain 28:54

though carter it's personality i think that matters more it's that it's that sort of i don't want to piss this person personality. You have a bit of that, right? And there's a half a dozen to a dozen people in this country that have that personality. And I think when you're in rooms with those people, even if you strongly believe like I do, that this is the wrong thing to do and that there might be other people around the table, it's often very difficult on the campaign. This is important for people to understand that often these decisions are less about collaborative what we should do and more so anyone want to take me on any big disagreements if not we're moving on and doing this. And there's There's been, in my time working with folks like that across the board over multiple campaigns, that's how often these decisions get made. Either you don't hear about them and or even if you do, it's very much who wants to take me on on this because, you know, I've got all my talking points ready. So

Annalise 29:45

So when do you make that decision to say, yeah, this is the wrong move. I do want to take you on. Something

Zain 29:51

Something like this to me kind of speaks to that, which is a issue that can fundamentally undermine the core pillars of the campaign. There's a lot of fights that I feel like are not worth it. This one would be one where I'd say two weeks on the clock. This speaks to our core issue,

Zain 30:11

issue, which is trust. You may think it's Trump, but I think it's trust in our guy. Fully examine it. At least have, at least canvass a few other folks. Moderate, like ask them, like be a moderator rather than a strategist and ask them, give me your honest opinion. There's no, there's no like wrong answer here. And see what they say. And if we're wrong, if I'm wrong the entire way, go for it. But at least do that.

Zain 30:35

Is what I'd encourage someone like Carter. He may disagree with all of this, but that's his prerogative.

Annalise 30:40

Carter, jump in because you're, I want to, you've been in these conversations and you've also got some age on Zane. you're you've got some more uh you're older you've got you've you're like do you agree with his assessment of that you're i don't know jump in here well i

Carter 30:55

i would do it's like you here's how i would respond to that we wrote this in the strategy six weeks ago we had a play we had a play in the playbook that we knew we were going to make if

Carter 31:05

if the certain if certain circumstances came up we agreed at that point do

Carter 31:10

do we still agree today and

Carter 31:12

and what has changed if we do not Because Zane's talking about having the argument two weeks ago. Like if this was two weeks ago, this came out. I

Carter 31:20

I would have made sure that we had this play called six weeks ago.

Carter 31:24

Right? So that we were calling the play or calling the situation well in advance. So

Carter 31:29

So that we weren't, you know, because in the heat of the battle, you're losing sight of so much. And my strength isn't my

Carter 31:36

my way or the highway. The strength is we

Carter 31:39

we called the play six weeks ago. When this happened, what has changed fundamentally that would force us to change our minds, right?

Carter 31:47

right? Because we had a clearness of thought four weeks ago or six weeks ago. Now

Carter 31:51

Now we're trying to come around and sneeze.

Zain 31:58

He's getting emotional. Getting emotional. He couldn't

Carter 32:01

couldn't get to me. He's stopping here.

Zain 32:03

here. The only thing that makes him cry is a well-written strategy.

Zain 32:07

It's the only thing that gets him emotional.

Carter 32:09

No, but here's my thing. Like, if we had called the play, if we knew where we were going to go, then goddammit, we'd go that direction.

Annalise 32:18

So then, Zane, what's your response? Let's say you two are having these conversations to get together, and he's

Zain 32:23

he's like— Hey, Carter, you never involved me six weeks ago. You wrote a document six weeks ago and then said that was the play. So what's changed? He said, I'm hearing about it for the first time. I'm involved in

Carter 32:31

my document six weeks

Zain 32:32

weeks ago. Oh, I know. Carter's not a good example. But

Annalise 32:35

But would you fight Carter on those? I

Zain 32:38

I would. I would. I think this one would be worthwhile enough to at least get whoever's leading the campaign to say, can you ask half a dozen other people without any retribution to them to see should we do this or not? And you may or may not value that person's opinion and you may still make the call, But just canvass a few other folks that you have brought around this table that you feel like are talented at what they do to see. Do they see the error of the ways here or do they see? And by the way, this does not need to be consensus on two fronts. The campaign strategist and the campaign manager does not have to get a consensus in order to make the call. But also, to be clear, we're talking about marginal 20% shift in what we see the strategy. Like I see the value of doing this. Like do not get me wrong. And Carter, he's never acknowledged it, but I can just tell with his eyes. sees the values of the point that I'm trying to make around trust. So we're talking about a 60-40 here. We're not talking about consensus like 100% either way. If everyone in the office doesn't give it the thumbs up, we're not doing this. But if you're getting universally negative feedback, it might take a bit more examination, right? That's the sort of stuff I'm talking about.

Annalise 33:44

about. Do you bring, like, Carter, you've been on campaigns where I've gotten that, oh, Stephen Carter's calling and you say, hey, I just want your gut check on this. What are you thinking? What are you hearing? Like, at what point do you take the conversation out of that that core group on the campaign and say like what what does that person who's a bit more plugged in because they're not in this bubble what do they think of this i'm

Carter 34:04

i'm rarely i'm rarely calling to ask about a tactic and i'm more often calling about where we are and what the vibes feel like because the individual tactic um it's

Carter 34:14

it's it's always easy to to criticize an individual tactic or to be on the wrong side of a tactic or to whatever But what are the vibes? Are our assumptions about the situation correct or are they incorrect? And if they are relatively staying correct, then I'll just go forward with my own tactical choices, right? Right. So we've seen some of that even

Carter 34:38

even on the Hogan campaign, right, where we know the vibe check is that if

Carter 34:44

if we're running against Danielle Smith, we're running a much more effective campaign than if we're running against Jeremy Nixon.

Carter 34:50

Jeremy Nixon's name recognition is in the 20th percentile. Danielle Smith's name recognition is in the 70th percentile. um you know we have a much higher probability of success i'm not checking that with the uh with the campaign team right like you know that

Carter 35:08

that yeah we know that uh and so if a tactic comes up that enables us to take on danielle smith we're probably going to do that rather than not doing that okay

Annalise 35:18

okay um guys let's chat about final weekend it's we're we're recording Friday morning. Election day is Monday. What does the final, you're tired, day 25 for your April 1st campaign, you guys got a little bit of a late start, but what does the final weekends look like ahead of the election?

Carter 35:38

There's three things happening on the weekend. The first thing is continuing voter identification right up until end of day Saturday.

Carter 35:46

And then once you're done voter identification, you're immediately moving into getting

Carter 35:50

getting your vote out. And

Carter 35:52

And so we're doing voter identification, trying to identify a thousand more Liberal votes on Saturday. That thousand more Liberal votes then turns into flyers dropped at every single house that is identified as a Liberal supporter. So

Carter 36:09

So everybody gets a flyer reminding them to vote. The only people who don't are the people that we know voted in the in the advance polls and then on election day we're doing uh knock and polls so you're actually going to people's homes in high liberal locations knocking on the liberal doors and saying have you voted yet and if you haven't uh here's

Carter 36:28

here's your voting station get on your horse and get over to your polling station so that we can actually get your vote in but at this stage there's nothing regarding tax

Carter 36:39

tax you know like communications too late. There's no, how do we change people's, what they're talking about at the doors? What you're trying to change is the number of people that you've got identified that are saying that they're going to vote liberal and then getting as many of those people to the polls as humanly possible. You're trying to hit the 95th percentile of every single liberal that you have identified going to the polls and dropping, you know, casting their vote. And the conservatives are doing the exact same thing. They are dragging

Carter 37:08

dragging every single potential voter that they've identified and then ultimately everything hinges on the people that you didn't identify the people that um you don't know about right we've between the conservatives and the liberals i bet you we've you know confirmed somewhere in the neighborhood of 25 000 voters in calgary confederation calgary confederation well 27 000 voters calvary cast ballots in the advanced polls right

Carter 37:32

right so it's the un it's the the people who aren't identified that are going to ultimately make up the uh the

Carter 37:39

the the winning factions but that that's in the hands of the gods and

Annalise 37:44

and zane what are from your recent um campaign experience and more of kind of that war room advising behind the scenes not like individual um writing what what are final days like and is it just you're they're sending people out to the doors they just need more bodies my

Zain 37:59

my my specialty has largely been advertising so at this point i'm done like it's literally i am done i it's funny You bring in some of the most talented communications, marketing, advertising, media buying people in the world. And in the final week, they're knocking on doors.

Zain 38:15

And that's how it should, because they've got nothing to do. Like their skill set, if they are putting a new ad together on Friday, you are fucked. Like,

Zain 38:25

hey, you can't spend on Monday. Any throttle you give it on Saturday or Sunday or even let's say you get it cut on Friday and approved by Think TV in an hour and run it on national hockey games. Okay, like it's not going to move the needle. So the people in my universe are generally at the guidance and behest of whatever the ground team wants, whatever the candidate wants. You're probably working on like depending on the scope and the size of the campaign, the remarks for the candidate. it. You're probably squaring out some last graphics in emails. You're probably doing an email blast sort of thing. So you're thinking about digital tactics that you're scheduling, 24 hours to vote, 12 hours, six hours, two hours, one hour, 30 minutes, figuring all that out, annoying people, burning your list. It's a common tactic at this point is you burn all the lists that you have. If you need money, now's the time to do it. In the sense of final dollars, give us some money so we can make a final GOTV push. We're so close, etc., etc. And if it's not for any of the things I just mentioned, then you're probably at the doors to kind of doing your thing, helping out the campaign, joining a phone bank, and or twiddling your thumbs.

Annalise 39:40

Twiddling in the final days. Carter, do you

Annalise 39:43

do like a big, like, and you'll do it, not you, but this weekend at, I forget what we're calling it, Paint the Town, Flood the Zone? Flood

Zain 39:51

Flood the Red Zone.

Annalise 39:54

Do you do like do like a big rah, rah, rah to the hundreds of volunteers that you're going to get out about like how important this door knocking is because every vote counts? Like talk to me about about those on the ground vibes for these. And there's probably people listening right now who are planning to come out. Talk to me about this. Well,

Carter 40:14

Well, basically, you're trying to get everybody as excited as possible that this is the day. These are the last three days to actually change the course of the of the campaign. And it's true to a large extent. Like if the great unwashed and the ones that we don't talk to form the base, then if you're expecting to win by 200 to 2000 votes, then these liberal IDs and the IDs that the conservatives have are the most important votes that you have in the election. You've got to get, you know, leaving 500 votes on the table might change the outcome of the election. So you want to get as many people out as possible. That's why Corey's literally been working the telephone calls every single day. It's funny because he calls people, and then if he doesn't reach them, he sends them a text, right? And he gets stopped back to him every once in a while because he does— It's the auto one? They think it's the auto text, but it's actually him making the text because— The real Corey

Carter 41:10

The real Corey Hogan has to touch as many people as possible to get them as excited as possible. Um, what you don't want to have happen is, uh, you know, 40

Carter 41:19

40 volunteers on Saturday and 40 volunteers on Sunday, and then 450 people at your victory party.

Carter 41:25

Um, that's, you know, you're, you're trying to get every single person to the, you know, we haven't told people where the victory party is. Uh, if you want to find out where the victory party is, you're going to have to go to one of the sessions between on Saturday, Sunday, and Monday, right? Right. You have to actually do the work to get invited to the to the party, because that's I mean, ultimately, at this stage, it's all hands on deck. And if you have, you know, if you're not doing something, if you're the advertising guy and your job is finished and I fall into the same role, like there's nothing strategic left. There's not a strategic thought in my head that's going to change this election. It all boils down to how many volunteers can we get? And so my job has been to call volunteers, too.

Annalise 42:09

Right. Did they like talking to Stephen Carter? It didn't work out as well

Carter 42:12

well as Corey had hoped. Yeah,

Annalise 42:14

Yeah, Corey's more likable, right? People like Corey. Is

Zain 42:18

Is it because they don't know you or because they know you? It's because they know me. Which one is more off-putting? Oh, they know you, okay. Yeah,

Carter 42:22

Yeah, no. I come up at the doors sometimes. You know, the man who's ruined Calgary, I believe, is what one resident said about me.

Carter 42:33

I was pretty proud of myself there. I mean, that's significant. Single

Annalise 42:38

Steadily. Step with you. Destroy it, Calgary. Those are strong words. Carter, is the... Now we can destroy

Annalise 42:47

Is the election thing that you're saying about not telling people where it is, do you do that because you've seen that before, where you've got no volunteers weekend before and then hundreds of people out to your victory party? Menchie 2010 was fantastic for that.

Carter 43:01

I mean, we had a lot of volunteers, to be clear. We had a lot of volunteers. tears but the number of people who showed up that i had never seen on the campaign you know i was fairly you know i was fairly involved hazing like 2010 i was i was i was there i i did a lot of rumors suggest

Carter 43:18

i did a lot of time uh i'd

Carter 43:21

i'd never seen half the people that showed up at the victory and

Carter 43:24

it i was just like what where the fuck did you come from we could have really used you um In about a thousand different ways on the actual campaign. But the only parties that only have the volunteers at them are the losing ones.

Carter 43:39

Then only the volunteers are there. But the winning parties have everybody and their dog. And that's actually, it's actually one of the ways you can get a real sense of your riding is when you're getting phone calls from people who haven't done anything saying, where's the victory party? Where's the victory party?

Annalise 43:53

So what do you say? It's like a secret password. You're like, come do a shift. We'll

Carter 43:57

We'll see you tomorrow at the Campaign HQ, 1601 West Mount Road, Northwest, between

Carter 44:04

between 10.30 and 4.30. Pop by tomorrow. Is this podcast

Zain 44:08

podcast a campaign contribution, and how much would you value it on the open market?

Zain 44:14

How much would Elections Canada value this podcast? It's a question to ask Dean Del Mastro. If

Carter 44:20

If Rebel News is allowed to do whatever the fuck they do, then

Zain 44:23

then we can do whatever we want to do. God, about the fuck me. Yeah, that's true. That's true. Okay. Okay.

Annalise 44:28

Okay. Carter, do you have, so for those people listening who have not participated, I'm giving you one final one, like, like speak to them, speak to these people listening who haven't done anything. It is the final weekend. You speak to them, Carter. Well,

Carter 44:41

I mean, you get the benefit of meeting Corey Hogan in person, you get the benefit of meeting me in person, and you get the benefit of not meeting Zane Velji, who will not be door knocking tomorrow or on Saturday.

Carter 44:54

So that's, that's a, I think that's a giant win. Still come

Annalise 44:58

come on out, paint

Carter 44:59

paint the town red. Plus, Corey has kind

Carter 45:00

kind of promised to continue to do a podcast if he wins. So you're not destroying the podcast.

Carter 45:06

It's going to continue in some fashion. Kind

Annalise 45:08

Kind of promised. Okay, we will leave it there. That is a wrap on episode 1864 of The Strategist. I'm your host, Annalise Klingbeil. With you, as always, Stephen Carter and Zane Belgin.

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