Transcript
Carter
0:00
Well, you want me to do what?
Carter
0:01
What do you want me to do?
Corey
0:04
He's not here. We're just going to have to figure it out on our own. I
Corey
0:07
I don't have topics.
Carter
0:08
topics. I don't have questions. We're
Corey
0:11
We're in the middle of a federal election.
Corey
0:13
We got the topic. You know what the topic is? Federal election. Oh,
Corey
0:17
Wait, intros first. I hit record a bit back. That's when- Oh, did you? You want to do the intro thing or- What episode is- Episode
Corey
0:24
Episode 1855. You go.
Carter
0:27
I don't remember how- Welcome to the strategist. It
Corey
0:30
with welcome. It's fine. Keep going.
Carter
0:36
1855. I'm Stephen Carter, and this is Corey Hogan.
Carter
0:40
With me as always is Corey
Corey
0:45
Welcome to the show.
Corey
0:46
Normally we would, you know, Zane was
Carter
0:48
was here. Say that too. Hey,
Corey
0:49
Hey, how are you? Zane was supposed to record, and
Corey
0:52
and then he said to us at 11 o'clock last night, Sorry, guys, I can't record in the morning. I'm going to be on a Greyhound bus. A little suspicious. Greyhound hasn't operated in like a decade. Yeah, no, we
Carter
1:03
we understand. I mean, it's very suspicious. He's having a sleep in, isn't he? Like, I'm on a Greyhound. Let me ask you, when was the last time you booked a Red Arrow ticket at
Carter
1:14
at 11 o'clock at night?
Corey
1:16
I mean, I'm not sure. The night before. It's been a minute. Yeah. Yeah.
Carter
1:19
Yeah. I mean, what's he doing? Like, what's his life like?
Corey
1:23
I don't know. you
Corey
1:25
lives a life of wild abandon it's
Corey
1:27
it's he's younger than us the
Carter
1:29
the number of times we get hit with uh
Carter
1:31
uh i'm not available with less than like 12 hours
Corey
1:35
hours yeah like when i'm not
Carter
1:37
not available i'm like i'm not available like
Carter
1:39
like it's it's in the future and yeah you
Carter
1:41
you know like i wasn't available for the emergency episode which
Carter
1:44
which was uh classic high high standard art my my you
Carter
1:50
know how i know it was high level art how's
Carter
1:53
my wife didn't get it why
Corey
1:55
why are you taking shots at heather right now you know
Carter
1:57
know what that's a mistake my wife loved
Carter
1:59
she thought it was the best episode we ever had the
Carter
2:02
the uh the video very much confused her though because the ai functionality of it that
Corey
2:07
we should allegedly ai we
Carter
2:09
we should i think we should tell people because it's starting to get spooky
Carter
2:13
it's starting to get
Corey
2:14
it'll speak pretty soon pretty
Carter
2:16
pretty soon someone on this podcast and i'm not naming names axum is
Carter
2:19
is going to be able to uh is
Carter
2:21
is going to be able to generate whole episodes out of like nothing what
Corey
2:25
what makes you think that hasn't happened like when's the last time you went to the feed well
Carter
2:29
well you've made an excellent point there i'm
Corey
2:30
i'm not even sure we're
Carter
2:31
we're on 1855 this numbering system seems suspect all
Corey
2:38
right we do have a ton of content do we
Corey
2:40
i assume i don't know yeah well okay look let's let's just throw a few things let's just take let's let's co-create let's build an episode here let's talk about a few things i mean yesterday we had the tariff drama and we had prime not candidate mark carney prime minister mark carney stand up and talk about the canadian response then he went back to being candidate mark carney we have um we
Corey
3:02
we have pierre polliev's continued kind of staggering here there was some reporting
Corey
3:08
reporting recently it doesn't even matter the content but there was reporting yesterday about uh about
Corey
3:13
about him helping somebody uh on on the the immigration front and some questions of hypocrisy, which is not, I think it's from like a more left-wing outlet. I'm not sure it'll kind of push in, but I think it, for me, it illustrated his continued challenges, getting his wheels out of the mud there. And we also have all of the madness down South more broadly and how it's going to affect things. We're coming up on April 2nd, which is tariff day next week. And how's that going to throw the campaign into chaos? So those are the three I wouldn't mind talking about. I wouldn't mind if on number two we talk about what's going right with the polyev campaign right now too because he also had a 5 000 person rally well i mean so maybe a state of the polyev campaign yeah
Carter
3:52
yeah because there there's uh there's
Carter
3:56
there's a lot going on because polyev as a person out on the campaign trail may not be doing as well but
Carter
4:02
but i think his ads and his events are
Carter
4:06
sometimes than the than the liberal ads and
Carter
4:09
and okay so let's
Corey
4:09
let's pick this up because okay you know there this is probably something something that should be a bit of cold water on a lot of people who are looking at the polls and looking at the trends and and saying it looks like it's going to be you know carny mania right yeah
Corey
4:23
yeah does this not feel a little bit like
Corey
4:26
like the kamala harris campaign right the polls are saying one thing but we almost have to disregard some of the other data right the massive rallies the the saturation of advertising the ads actually in some ways seem as
Corey
4:39
as well or better constructed than the liberal ones at this point i'm not knocking the liberal ones but i do think the conservatives have somewhat found their footing on that one after a bit of a fumbling start yeah
Carter
4:48
yeah i think that they're starting to get there i think that there's a feeling you know i i'm not sure i want to bring in kamala harris into this i think that that was a unique situation uh
Corey
4:56
uh oh you're right because they had to replace the leader at the last minute so it's it's not analogous
Carter
5:04
sometimes you're not likable
Carter
5:07
you're just you're just not likable it's it's a likability thing and yeah
Carter
5:11
and we put you on the podcast in spite of that and uh you
Corey
5:16
i'm just trying to redefine what likable is that's actually my mission with this podcast yeah
Carter
5:21
uh it does make me look likable which i'm i appreciate
Corey
5:24
appreciate yeah Yeah, that's really good.
Carter
5:27
Oh, dear. I didn't hit the button there fast
Corey
5:31
fast enough. No. And now, yep.
Carter
5:34
That was the worst. That was the worst. What is that, 5.30? 5.30, we may have to do
Corey
5:38
do some editing. I really enjoy that in your ears. Jesus, I feel bad
Carter
5:43
bad for the people. That's
Corey
5:44
That's a bit of a wet sound. Listen, let's
Carter
5:46
let's start with Pierre Polyev.
Carter
5:48
Because I think that there's a myth going on, and maybe we've perpetuated this myth.
Corey
5:52
Nice. Good for us. That
Carter
5:54
That Pierre Polyevich just completely shot the bet.
Carter
5:58
I don't think that he's completely shot the bet. I think that the ground shifted beneath his feet.
Carter
6:04
And he has struggled to try and find a new path forward.
Carter
6:08
But he has certainly not lost his core group. I
Carter
6:11
I was on an airplane yesterday. You remember airplanes. I
Carter
6:14
I was on an airplane yesterday and I was sitting with a conservative friend of mine.
Carter
6:18
Happened to be the chief of staff to Jason Kenney at one point. Had a lovely conversation. But
Carter
6:24
But the way she saw the election and the way I saw the election were two very different and polarized views. She
Carter
6:33
She saw Pierre Polyev as an absolute all-star, nailing all of his speeches, absolutely crushing the events, and having a really good advertising campaign. And
Carter
6:44
And I had to take that to heart a little bit because she's someone who I respect quite a a bit even though you know you know not a uh
Carter
6:51
not necessarily a political ally at this stage we we we did work together in the allison redford government i've now given enough details that people should be able to i mean
Corey
6:59
mean it was it was pretty easy after you said chief of staff and she i think but keep going well
Carter
7:04
well you know it's you know
Carter
7:06
know there's there's been more than has there been more than one no
Carter
7:09
i don't think so anyways
Carter
7:14
it it was a fantastic conversation conversation to remind me that how
Carter
7:19
how you see information is 100
Carter
7:22
100% rooted in the, in your predisposition,
Carter
7:26
right? If you're predisposed to see the information one way, you're going to see it that way. If
Carter
7:30
If you're predisposed to see it the other way, then you see it that way. The same fact has the same impact, has different impacts on two different audience sets. Yeah.
Corey
7:38
Yeah. Well, that's why we call it spin, right? You turn it, you look at it different and you can, you can feel very different about it it's a good point too about um you said like well maybe we've even propagated this i i have often thought coming out of an episode i
Corey
7:51
i almost every episode they almost need a disclaimer at the start that says hey listen don't forget everything else you know when you hear these opinions because like we'll often like laser focus in on one thing or say hey there's real trouble ahead if they continue down this path and we'll build it into a whole stream of conversation But that doesn't mean we, I mean, Pierre Polyev is still a brilliant communicator. Pierre Polyev is still very strong with his base, right? He may be in a lot of trouble based on some of the strategic decisions he made over the long term with his, you know, with his desired electorate. And I think that the polls have kind
Corey
8:25
kind of borne that out, right? But he's
Corey
8:28
he's not a man without talents. Like you can't, you can't hear one criticism and assume that he, everything he does is bad. And sometimes I think that when people are, you
Corey
8:38
you know, whenever they, we all do this. It's like, it also happens with sports narratives, right? Like we just go, we go from everything is perfect to everything is terrible. This team is absolutely in the mud. Well, the reality is probably a little bit different, right? They might have some challenges they got to work through, but it's a bit different. I
Carter
8:53
actually think that's one of the big problems in politics is the sportification of them.
Carter
8:57
You know, like, I think that we often will become too much like sports teams and think that everything is in that moment of sports. Well,
Corey
9:05
Well, good thing we've never fed into that particular.
Carter
9:15
this is quite a mea culpa episode. We did not expect that.
Corey
9:19
No, this was not what I was waking up to do. no
Carter
9:21
no i mean we've never actually done one so this is good oh
Carter
9:26
1855 episodes not just
Corey
9:28
just episodes like i mean in our whole lives i've never done me i'm
Carter
9:31
i'm sorry i was wrong that's
Corey
9:33
that's never very weird although
Carter
9:35
someone did try and post how wrong we were on the uh on
Carter
9:38
on the discord or somewhere were
Corey
9:40
were we wrong about something what
Carter
9:42
what did we do no we weren't wrong they posted that we were wrong and that was incorrect
Corey
9:47
that's yeah that's that's embarrassing for them yeah
Carter
9:49
yeah you jumped in and and squash them like a small bug regardless of the fact that they are a paying patron of the podcast it made me happy so
Corey
9:57
so thank you okay that's good did i are you sure it wasn't well we know it wasn't zane wasn't
Carter
10:02
it was not me i'd never trashed one of our patrons i
Carter
10:05
i trashed them as a group collectively
Corey
10:07
collectively as a collective you don't you don't see them as individuals they're not
Carter
10:11
important to me um
Carter
10:13
they're not either but this
Corey
10:15
this is a patreon episode i just you know just
Carter
10:18
love the patrons uh patrons are our fair our friends and our family
Corey
10:25
okay great cleanup i'll get in the discord clean this up
Corey
10:28
you get in the discord and you clean this up um yeah
Corey
10:32
yeah i don't know you have anything more to say about pure poly i actually think it's an interesting point it's worth maybe dwelling on a little bit but maybe we can make a broader point one of the things about being the prime minister as we saw yesterday
Corey
10:43
yesterday is there are are advantages to that role there are opportunities that role presents we dug forward did this too which means you can take over the conversation anytime you want that there's a moment of major crisis and that's a little bit tough for an opposition leader sometimes to contend with without looking like they're especially with an international issue like being like you're you're
Corey
11:03
you're just difficult it's
Carter
11:04
it's almost unfair um that you know you get you you are required to stay the prime minister right like yeah
Carter
11:11
the government doesn't stop being the government the
Carter
11:13
the government is still there they we choose to put
Carter
11:16
put those titles behind when we're campaigning but they still exist and
Carter
11:20
and the prime minister from time to time same as the premier of ontario who's who was called back essentially to do premier
Corey
11:29
yeah basically the same stuff same issue same
Carter
11:30
same issue uh you know different timeline but this is this is this was required of mark carney to stand up and make a statement to the nation as the prime minister not just as the uh you
Carter
11:43
you know the president you know the the the candidate for prime minister and i think i thought his press conference yesterday was excellent he
Corey
11:51
i thought it was stellar his his work
Carter
11:55
his standing in front of it and it's one of the questions i asked my uh my conservative colleague i said you know what did you think of it now she hadn't seen it yet so uh but she was going to see it and report back to me so we'll see uh but i anticipate that she thought that his work wasn't as good as i did because
Carter
12:13
because i do think that we are now whereas
Carter
12:15
whereas before we we had more people to the conservatives than were true conservatives now we're starting to see the true conservatives still have their battle lines and this is about as low as pierre poliev is going to drop everybody
Carter
12:27
everybody who's seeing you
Carter
12:28
you know who's looking at this battle now now
Carter
12:31
now we're seeing the true conservatives the true liberals liberals and
Carter
12:33
and apparently the true new democrats um
Carter
12:37
if there's any of those left doesn't
Corey
12:38
doesn't seem to be a lot of those in this election here no but
Carter
12:40
but we've seen such a significant shift uh
Carter
12:43
uh i think that people are seeing this information one piece at a time as as partisans as opposed to seeing it as uh as
Carter
12:51
as open voters so
Corey
12:53
so let's talk a bit about that that uh remarks by carney and then some of the commentary around it here he first of all i gotta say he continues to look like he's had had the job for a while yeah he's very comfortable as prime minister i'm i
Corey
13:08
you know i don't know i don't know if you would agree maybe you would add some different color but like i
Corey
13:12
i can think of when justin trudeau was first prime minister i can think of when stephen harper was first prime minister i'm not saying they were incompetent in that moment but there was like a like an almost a nervous energy like this is my first day on the job energy you know like this is the first time i've done a moment like this mark carney looks almost like he could like lean over be overly comfortable at the lectern right like he's he's doing the mark carney hand thing which i don't know we should talk about that at some point too it's fine but like do you know what i'm talking about yeah yeah and um he just he's already got like tics and e's and all of this and he goes and he says in a way that i mean it's such a big line it's obviously internationally reported but
Corey
13:51
he does it in like with just maximum drama as though he is the prime minister of 20 years is saying this instead of the guy that was selected 20 minutes ago and he says the old relationship we had with the united states based on deepening integration of our economies and tight security and military cooperation pause
Corey
14:08
pause pause pause click click click flash bulbs almost right is over and
Corey
14:13
just like scripted stuff right well and and
Carter
14:16
and watching it that pause was fantastic yeah
Corey
14:20
yeah like everybody across the
Corey
14:23
viewership i won't say the nation most of us weren't watching and it just kind of leans in yeah
Carter
14:27
yeah we we knew that he didn't lose his words that's one of the challenges with pause sometimes pause can look like you've lost your words he we knew he didn't lose his words we knew that he was making an emphasis and he was going to make his point and
Carter
14:40
and my god did he make his point is
Carter
14:43
just rang through it
Carter
14:47
um how it's how it stood out uh
Carter
14:50
uh and was separated apart it was a fantastic uh
Carter
14:53
uh piece of theater of political theater so
Corey
14:56
so this is one of the things that people don't appreciate i think sometimes with pause people often when they're new to speeches will think pause is bad yeah
Corey
15:04
right it's it's a challenge where all of a sudden i've lost my words the audience will think i've lost my words but i think mark carney illustrated if done really well and we've worked with clients on this pause is a great flag so when we're talking about a speech we will often and not just a speech but in the context of a speech for sure we'll talk about bridging and flagging these are concepts we use bridging is how you get off a topic you don't want to be talking about or frankly even a topic you are but is not the topic that leads to the next one to
Corey
15:32
to the place you want to be so uh you know bridging would be like but we got to step back and talk about this issue or you know what's important to keep in mind is that issue or but the really uh essential thing to talk about here is and there you go flagging is the things you do with your words and your actions in order for people to realize that the next thing you're going to say really
Corey
15:53
really matters. Like that's fucking important. So you better pay attention. And this is one of the best nonverbal flags I think I've seen in recent time, the way he worked with that space. Yeah, for
Corey
16:05
And a pause is good for that. A pause can really build a sense of anticipation where all of a sudden, if you're only half been paying attention, there's a bit of silence. Everyone else is sort of leaning into you. Oh, wait, what the fuck's going on here?
Corey
16:17
He did that very well. i think um i
Corey
16:20
i think that he's showing himself to be a pretty natural communicator and i do wonder if some of this is not his bank training right like as governor of bank of canada governor of bank of england you really need to be able to flag the things that like a big part of a central bank's role is signaling future intent exactly
Corey
16:37
and he's he's doing a pretty good job of that well
Carter
16:39
well i just thought it was an excellent speech i thought that his press conference went exceptionally well the
Carter
16:45
the difference between uh
Carter
16:48
uh Mark Carney the candidate and Mark Carney the prime minister is minimal I would suggest there is no like the caricature that Trudeau you would present as the prime minister doesn't
Carter
16:58
doesn't exist with Carney it
Carter
17:01
a straight up old-fashioned I'm going to compare it to Mulroney Mulroney
Carter
17:05
Mulroney style of uh of
Carter
17:07
of prime minister just standing up there and owning the space.
Carter
17:11
And I always thought that Mulroney was one of the strongest people at owning the space
Carter
17:18
know, in our history.
Corey
17:20
Yeah. Well, your history, right? I mean, I was alive, but I was pretty, I was small, you know, you're old. You were actually small
Carter
17:27
small during the Mulroney years?
Corey
17:29
Yeah. At what point? Yeah. Hard to believe.
Carter
17:33
I always kind of assumed that you you came out of the womb pretty much formed i
Corey
17:40
do remember watching the 88 election like not knowing quite what was going on but um watching the coverage of it that was one of my first if not first political memories that
Carter
17:52
1983 being very confused by joe clark stepping down oh
Corey
17:57
oh okay you thought that's really weird he he clearly had a majority of the vote that was very very strange
Carter
18:01
strange for me i
Corey
18:03
mean i think it was in hindsight strange for a lot of people he set that bar yeah
Carter
18:06
yeah he set the bar and everybody's cursed his name since
Corey
18:10
yeah apparently two-thirds is what you need minimum yeah
Corey
18:13
for a country as big as canada fucking
Corey
18:16
man and then you went you worked for him like you you got a real full circle thing there huh Yeah,
Carter
18:23
I've seen it all.
Corey
18:30
Anything else you want to say about the Kearney launch? No,
Carter
18:32
No, I think we're
Corey
18:32
we're done with that.
Carter
18:33
that. I thought we were going to go 10 minutes on it. We went 18. But I
Carter
18:37
I had my sneeze
Carter
18:38
in the middle there.
Corey
18:39
We had like two topics in that 18, right? We also did the Polyev, yeah. I don't even think we did 10.
Carter
18:44
10. Well, no, I think Polyev versus
Carter
18:45
Kearney is one topic.
Carter
18:47
haven't got to the States yet.
Corey
18:48
Do you want to do the States? pretty seamless bridge pretty seamless bridge by me so you didn't even notice the topic change but i did the same topic
Corey
18:55
you know you run the tape and you'll see where all
Carter
18:59
let's do states you do states this
Carter
19:00
this is this bridge is a little more challenging uh
Corey
19:03
uh it's a little more overt yeah
Corey
19:05
this bridge when we're talking about bridging this
Corey
19:08
this bridge a little
Corey
19:09
little more uh explicit but sometimes when you're bridging you need to be explicit you know i
Carter
19:13
don't really want to talk talk about trump in the states is that okay okay
Corey
19:17
to talk more about
Carter
19:18
about how daniel smith has gone to see ben shapiro okay
Corey
19:21
okay yeah i guess i didn't even throw that on there but yeah that's obviously a big thing down at prager university east yeah
Carter
19:28
yeah i don't really understand florida
Carter
19:30
florida fuck is going on that
Carter
19:31
that we would have our prime our our first
Carter
19:34
first minister of alberta our
Carter
19:37
go down to florida
Carter
19:39
florida to do a fundraiser for prager university
Corey
19:44
Does seem odd. I'll be honest. I haven't seen it. I know that there was some people down there that were reporting on the content of the day. I haven't seen what that content was. I've seen on social media a little bit go past where she apparently was there as Ben Shapiro was making 51st state jokes. I don't know if that's true. You tell me if that's true.
Corey
20:03
I think, you know, most of my thoughts are formed about the propriety of the trip in general, but it sounds like the content itself might be pretty interesting. I think
Carter
20:09
think the content is a mistake i think that i think that she's going to you know she's trying to find a way to be uh captain canada smith in her own and under her own terms
Carter
20:19
terms in her own conditions
Carter
20:23
don't think that that's working particularly well and
Carter
20:25
and i think that uh
Carter
20:29
just the mere i mean the action is more important than the words just the mere action of going down and showing up uh and being uh
Carter
20:37
uh and still doing it even amid amidst all of the criticism that's
Carter
20:41
that's what i don't understand there's a thousand things that could have come up that
Carter
20:45
that she could easily say i can't do this any longer i'm the prime i'm the premier of alberta um yeah
Carter
20:51
during an election and
Carter
20:52
and i have to stay you know close to home to make sure that uh
Carter
20:55
uh everything is working out for for the province of alberta they
Corey
20:58
they just put tariffs on us yesterday you know how hard would it be to say no there's a team canada meeting well i'm out yeah
Carter
21:05
yeah i mean we're we're not going to the States, right? Why would she go to the States? Like, this is a significant departure, I think, from what Canadians
Carter
21:13
Canadians and even Albertans are thinking is an appropriate use of time.
Corey
21:19
Well, so there's these two propriety angles, right? And maybe we need to disaggregate them, but I think that they tell the same story. One is, should she be doing this as a national leader at any moment, right? Like, is this how we want to engage with people who are increasingly geopolitical adversaries, right? Americans, and in particular, a certain strand of American.
Corey
21:41
know that the Daniel Smith people would say, no, this is exactly who you need to engage with. This is the conversation we need to have. This is diplomacy. The other component though, imagine
Corey
21:49
imagine being in the Pierre Polly of War Room. You must hate with every fiber of your being these conservative premiers. Daniel Smith going down there, creating new soundbites that tie you indirectly to her, to Ben Shapiro's of the world yeah
Corey
22:05
doug for dropping polls about how badly you're doing in ontario yeah
Corey
22:10
that's maybe an issue we get to maybe not but like in general like what
Corey
22:14
what are you you're
Corey
22:15
you're not really acting like they need a friend to act at this moment you by doing your alberta thing are going to cost them 10 seats in the 905 potentially yeah and by the way you may cost seats in alberta because this is not popular in alberta either to your point well
Carter
22:29
well that's just it i mean in alberta all of a sudden the liberals are competitive in in at least eight seats uh
Carter
22:34
uh which is astounding to me uh
Corey
22:37
uh i mean and your dbd that's a big number i would be competitive okay
Corey
22:42
broadly defined i'll give it to you maybe but like but still i think um that's
Corey
22:49
that's that's more competitive i will agree with you here they are more competitive here than they were in 2015 during the the trudeau wave you can feel it on the street it's just a different energy here right now and
Carter
22:59
and though and it wasn't but a three three or four months ago that no one was winning a seat yeah
Carter
23:05
right so um you
Carter
23:07
you know you'd think that she'd be trying to take care of things at home if
Carter
23:10
if she you know it really undermines her message when liberals suddenly get five
Carter
23:16
five seats in alberta and
Carter
23:21
uh and she's saying well well, you
Carter
23:23
you know, liberals, you know, Albertans don't like the liberals. Well, some
Carter
23:26
some do. Some do. We're going to get, we're
Carter
23:28
we're going to see some significant shifting in the total amount of vote that's going to liberals in 2025 versus
Carter
23:38
whatever it was. It certainly seems
Corey
23:39
seems that way. 3, 1,
Corey
23:43
I was looking at the polls and I was trying to say, what's the average pollster error in alberta versus uh you know versus nationally and all of that and what i found is that if
Corey
23:56
if you look at the polls prior to the last few elections
Corey
24:01
the alberta specific numbers were not too bad they and by the way the numbers that we're now seeing in alberta from those pollsters are higher than any of those times like this really It really does seem to be a new high watermark, at least going back 60, 70 years for liberal support in Alberta.
Corey
24:18
don't know if people have processed that yet. Like, that's a very strange thing to be saying. And I know outside of Alberta, there's, there's, oh, yeah, but it's Alberta. So what's the high watermark? 30, 40%? Yeah, it's fucking 30 or 40%. 30 or 40% of Albertans might vote liberal. That's, that's very different than times past. I need to underline that. You
Carter
24:35
You have to look at the regionalization of that, right?
Carter
24:38
It's not 30%, 40% across the board. It's 30%, 40%, but with, you know, huge pockets of 45%, 50% in some areas. Yeah.
Carter
24:49
10%, 20% in the rural and other areas. South Calgary is not going to turn a seat,
Carter
24:56
So, you know, south of the Glenmore Trail, it's just not going to happen.
Carter
25:03
north of glenmore trail uh
Carter
25:04
uh calgary center calgary confederation calgary even calgary forest lawn yeah
Carter
25:09
we're uh i think it's deepak obri's daughter who's running
Corey
25:12
yeah that's running for the liberals yeah
Corey
25:14
and you have deepak obri a long time conservative right yeah and so um and then you've got calgary mcknight where george shahal is calgary skyview which is the name of his old writing but i think his writings largely shifted into
Corey
25:27
into what's mcknight if i'm not not mistaken.
Corey
25:29
All of those feel like varying degrees of interesting. Skyview, probably the least.
Carter
25:35
I think Skyview is going to be a tough seat to hold.
Corey
25:39
Well, it's called a hold. I'm not even sure I would call it a hold. Like, you know, these things get reconstructed. Yeah. The reconstruction of
Carter
25:44
of it really McKnight is the incumbent.
Corey
25:47
Yeah. But, uh, it's,
Corey
25:49
it's, we are having this, I can't tell you how strange it is to be having this conversation, especially given the the last couple of months right where it was a big open question whether there would be any seats besides conservative and new democrat in the province well
Carter
26:04
well we were talking about a giant victory for mark carney would be to hold pierre pauliev to a minority yeah
Carter
26:10
that was the victory that was
Carter
26:12
only victory that we could see
Carter
26:17
i mean in a funny way yeah
Corey
26:18
yeah i don't know he's he's really changed the game i mean I mean, between him and Donald Trump, it's just a totally different game. I do wonder if he's going to be like the victim of such high expectations now, right? Where it's like, oh, no, he didn't quite make it. We're all sad now. When, of course, if you told that to a liberal in 2015, or not 2015, 2024, they would have said, come on, get out of here. Like, that's amazing. amazing yeah
Carter
26:47
yeah you know i think that there's a uh this is a this
Carter
26:51
is a wild wild ride one of the things that is interesting one of the things we struggled with in 2012 is it's super hard to get someone to change their mind twice yeah
Carter
26:59
right it's hard enough to get them to change their mind flip
Corey
27:01
flip flop that's such a great point right so
Carter
27:05
they they've changed their mind and
Carter
27:06
and all of a sudden mark carney is now viable what
Carter
27:09
what are the chances of
Carter
27:11
of them changing their mind back and
Carter
27:13
and saying essentially i was wrong twice yeah
Carter
27:17
is super hard to imagine that actually happening because that's not the the way that the psyche works it worked that way in 2012 but it took a asteroid
Carter
27:27
asteroid hitting the earth in terms of importance practically you know the lake of fire was a significant issue that
Carter
27:34
that people were like oh
Carter
27:35
oh and it also reinforced the position of wild rose right Right. Oh,
Carter
27:39
Oh, I knew that about them before. Right. I was skeptical. I I had concerns. So it enabled an easier change back. What's the easier change back for
Carter
27:49
for Carney or, you know, for for Polyev to get people to come back? I don't think he's got one. I think what he should be doing is focusing on his base and hoping that his vote, his
Carter
27:59
his very inefficient vote, which we've talked about so many times on the podcast, his very inefficient vote needs to become more efficient.
Corey
28:07
the risk is the i knew that about him right so what are things that people or them right so i do think it goes into those standard liberal tropes about the downsides of the liberals entitled you know they think they're the natural governing party always you know vague criticisms about them being aloof too eastern all of that like i i think that those are the risks and so the liberals need to be mindful of them as they go forward and make sure that they don't give any easy ammunition on that front right i'm trying to think about what the equivalent would be i think i would struggle to find one but if there was an issue that all of a sudden
Corey
28:43
legitimately set west against east legitimately
Corey
28:46
legitimately not not the not the drummed up stuff right where people said fuck i knew it these guys oh they're the worst um that would be a challenge for the liberals so they they
Corey
28:56
don't want to walk into that if they want to maintain the vote yeah
Carter
28:58
yeah i think The export tax on oil is the one thing that would
Carter
29:03
would set, you know, is the risk that would
Carter
29:06
would throw Alberta and Saskatchewan out.
Carter
29:09
But I'm not sure it would throw British Columbia out at all.
Corey
29:12
I don't think it would throw out BC at all. I, I'm, you know what, I don't know. Well, for sure, it'd be less popular here than anywhere else. You can convince somebody of anything except that which is against their economic interests, generally speaking. Right.
Corey
29:24
No question in my mind. I'm not suggesting this would be popular in Alberta. can i tell you the number of conversations i've had with people who work in oil and gas in the last month who have said you
Corey
29:35
know i shouldn't even say this i work in the industry but i wouldn't mind like serious people okay like not just like random folks but like who are saying like fuck these these fucking like there's still an energy they're still canadians right and they're still pissed off about all of this and the economics of the oil industry being what it is there is a sense like Like they can't just immediately pivot to another source. And so while I don't think it would be popular here, I'm not as convinced it would be as unpopular as I think we sometimes talk ourselves into.
Carter
30:05
I don't know. I think it'd be just the people would call it the replacement carbon tax.
Corey
30:12
that'd be a stretch in my opinion. I think what you just
Carter
30:13
just did there was you made it, you know, you looked at the complexity, you whittled it down, you made it understandable.
Carter
30:20
I think that in general, what Pierre Palliot is so good at is
Carter
30:24
is just saying this
Carter
30:25
is the simplest thing in the whole world and it's bad we'll
Corey
30:31
we'll give him it would give him and his skill set an incredible opportunity there's
Corey
30:35
there's no question about it but
Corey
30:36
we may end up there right like April 2nd this
Corey
30:39
this could be on the table I mean you've got people like Jason Kenney former premier of Alberta who are strongly implying we need to come to the bat we can't take this off we can't suggest that there are things that are that
Corey
30:51
that we're are unwilling to do yeah
Corey
30:53
and um i don't know like i'm just saying i'm
Corey
30:57
i'm not sure it would be as unpopular as people think i just
Carter
31:00
just wouldn't do it now right
Corey
31:02
you're thinking this is a i
Carter
31:03
i would just do it after the election instead of during the election well
Corey
31:08
well i don't know i think if asked during the election i would say everything
Corey
31:13
everything should be on the table everything is
Carter
31:14
is on the table yeah
Carter
31:16
but it's not something that i'm pulling willing to pull the trigger on it's
Corey
31:18
it's not something i want want to do not something i'm doing today but to defend this country everything everything
Corey
31:24
everything has to be on the everything
Carter
31:26
everything has to be yeah
Corey
31:27
yeah it's not even like you know i think the has to be is an important part of such a message it's it's not like it's not my wish it's not my like i don't have a choice like if we're going to defend us i can't do it with one hand behind my back here so we got to be serious about this yeah this
Corey
31:41
this is how you stand up to a bully
Corey
31:44
Okay, so we got those
Carter
31:47
I think that was excellent. Thank