Transcript
Zain
0:01
This is A Strategist, episode 1848. My name is Zain Velji. With me, as always, Corey Hogan, Stephen Carter. Carter, I've actually missed one. This is 1848D.
Zain
0:12
Do you know what the D stands for? The
Carter
0:15
The D stands for the one after C.
Zain
0:18
Okay. Well, Carter, thank you for bringing that quality energy. That quality small
Zain
0:23
small d energy. Did
Carter
0:23
Did you like that? This quality small d energy. Thank you. you yeah
Zain
0:28
of course of course you you walked right into that one one would say
Carter
0:32
i'm a little tired i'm
Carter
0:34
i'm a little tired why
Zain
0:35
why are you tired how
Corey
0:36
how are you feeling bud you
Zain
0:37
you guys are doing great i
Corey
0:38
i can't sleep in the candle at both ends
Zain
0:41
steven gilboa is supporting
Corey
0:42
supporting you now what
Carter
0:45
are you losing sleep that's
Carter
0:47
that's what that's why i'm losing sleep right there gilboa the gilboa machinery cory
Carter
0:52
cory cory just opened his pot all over himself
Zain
0:56
Yeah, I did. Blue is load, which is accurate. Which is an accurate statement.
Corey
1:04
That's great. Corey, you're going blue. I don't like this letter D. I don't like what this letter D is doing.
Corey
1:11
Let's do our announcement. We've got a special announcement to make. Big announcement. The only reason we're on the main feed. For a bit,
Zain
1:17
bit, I guess, or
Zain
1:18
however long you choose.
Corey
1:19
However long this takes.
Corey
1:22
do you want to get us started, or are you busy cleaning yourself up there? I got a real mess. I need a towel. That's
Carter
1:29
Jesus Christ, the number of times I've said that in the morning.
Zain
1:34
don't like where you're going here, Carter. I don't like
Zain
1:36
like where you're going with this either. Okay, Corey, make this announcement. There's people of import waiting for our special strategist announcement.
Corey
1:44
Well, of course. Well, as all longtime listeners know, any time that there's a liberal leadership race, although to be clear like a a national liberal leadership race we don't want to hear from any alberta liberals or ontario on this particular thing i
Corey
1:58
don't even know what an ontario liberal is they'll find out if they
Zain
2:01
they show up there's
Corey
2:06
doug ford forever am i right guys yeah
Zain
2:07
yeah i mean it
Zain
2:08
he was marginally xenophobic to mexicans and that whole green belt thing but sure you do you i
Zain
2:13
i mean you're bringing back a few things you're reminding Reminded me a little bit. Sorry to be
Corey
2:17
be trying. But the thing the most remember is we invite people onto the podcast, of course, during a liberal leadership. Federal Canadian liberal
Corey
2:26
Federal Canadian liberal leadership. No Australian liberals, please. We don't want to deal with that.
Corey
2:33
Zane would bring out a bad accent. It would become a bit of a hate crime. There'd be all sorts of challenges we've got to get past. Yeah, we're not going to do that. Put some shrimp on the body.
Carter
2:40
What is this? What is that? Is it shrimp? I thought
Zain
2:42
thought it was fish
Carter
2:42
fish on the body. I thought it was green pepper. It was totally fish. It's supposed to be fish on the barbie.
Zain
2:47
Fuck me. Anyways, I don't know what they say down there. Just
Carter
2:50
Just embarrassing. I was just there.
Carter
2:52
Were you there? Were you really? Yeah. You remember when I went to New Zealand? Oh, okay.
Zain
2:58
Don't, yeah. Do you want to show photos? Is this a slideshow episode? Should be. Do you show family photos? Yeah. It's not all
Zain
3:06
saying. It's a special announcement. So we're not doing the Australian liberal leadership. No, we're not. We could, though. How are they doing? How are the liberals doing in Australia, Carter? I think
Zain
3:14
Is that what you went to
Carter
3:15
No, I did not. Labor's doing just fine. Liberals are not having the best time.
Corey
3:20
There's the Liberal and National Party down there, right? Like there's two parties. They work in coalition. Yeah.
Corey
3:27
I mean, you're the guy from Australia. You should tell us here. Do people know that you lived in Australia? No.
Corey
3:32
I think we should talk about that. People
Carter
3:34
People don't know that I lived in Australia.
Corey
3:37
Well, they do now. People
Carter
3:38
People of Australia know that I lived there.
Carter
3:41
That's all that matters.
Zain
3:42
Oh, that's interesting. thing yeah that's right cory you're in the middle of a big announcement oh
Zain
3:49
what was the canadian
Corey
3:51
oh that's right thank you every time there's a federal canadian liberal leadership we make an offer we invite out to the candidates who've been approved who've gotten through that that first gate you know as long as you're technically a candidate as long as you're registered which by the way today
Zain
4:06
today is the deadline so we today
Corey
4:07
today we have got our qualifying
Zain
4:08
qualifying committee so we got the qualifying committee
Corey
4:12
We call it that, just
Corey
4:13
just to be clear. It's a formal thing. We've had it for a while. It's every liberal leadership, right? We invite the candidates onto the strategists. We invite them all. Doesn't matter if you're for sure going to win or you're not.
Corey
4:31
We invite you and we offer you an opportunity to join the strategists. Learn from us, really. I
Zain
4:37
I like to think of it as us. Let me jump
Zain
4:39
in here, Carter, and you could build on this listen the last american election has shown the importance of the manosphere and we are nothing but the manosphere okay we bring that energy every single time and you want to win vote you want to come on this show okay cory we get and i'm just going to estimate here and i'm going to lowball seven million people per episode listen i think yeah seven million people per episode okay we are the we may not be the top but we are the best It's the best political podcast in the country. So saying no to us, not right
Zain
5:12
right away, reaching out
Corey
5:13
out to us, would be
Zain
5:14
be a huge mistake, is what I'd say.
Zain
5:17
Carter, is there any caveats to this? Anything that folks, any of these half a dozen, I don't know how many there are, okay, qualified committee of candidates should know about showing up on our show?
Zain
5:29
We really don't have any rules, but maybe one. I mean,
Carter
5:32
mean, the Prime Minister did it. Now, the Prime Minister did do it and then had to resign.
Carter
5:40
for him. A little awkward.
Zain
5:41
Extremely long-tail causation, but yes. Yeah.
Zain
5:44
So there's nothing for you to add
Zain
5:47
Good. You didn't want
Corey
5:48
want to add the one condition we have? The
Corey
5:51
The one condition that we
Carter
5:56
right. They have to host the
Carter
5:57
show. They have to take the Zane Belgi Annalise Klingbeil role.
Carter
6:02
me tell you something about that
Corey
6:03
that i mean odds are good neither of them will be available and it will just be them with me and
Carter
6:06
and steven are you gonna bring out your long you know your your frustration about having to share the hosting role no
Zain
6:13
no i i really i really don't care i will make room for because here's the thing here's the thing if all if all one two three four five six seven i think there's seven if all seven of them show up six could be alternative hosts for you guys after for this. What are they going to do?
Zain
6:29
What are they going to do? What is Frank Bayless going to do? It's not like he's rich or anything. It's not like he's got a ton of money and he can
Zain
6:37
just hang out doing whatever he wants, okay? You're auditioning for a different job. This is your backup gig. This is great.
Zain
6:43
And listen, I also am a firm believer that being able to host this show is the skill set that one will need to become prime minister, okay? Can you hang? Can you improv can you ask extremely long questions can you interject your own opinion without making within
Carter
6:59
within those questions even the listener it's
Carter
7:01
it's it's a real article the listeners never pick up on your own opinion they don't they don't they never do no
Zain
7:06
no you're a cypher uh this is a real and sincere offer
Corey
7:09
offer is it not cory i
Corey
7:10
i mean i guess so as sincere
Corey
7:12
as anything we do we've ever
Zain
7:16
people should reach out right
Carter
7:19
yeah totally they should i mean i'm I'm actually going to pass this on to all the various campaigns I'm a part of. Do we want to give them...
Corey
7:25
them... Yeah, no kidding. An email? We could give an email address. Do we have an email address? Please.
Corey
7:30
How about media at the strategist.ca? Oh, that's good. Media at the strategist.ca. Do we have to pay
Carter
7:35
pay extra for that?
Corey
7:35
Media at the strategist.ca. Probably, yeah, yeah, yeah. I mean, it's... They could email us media at any
Zain
7:42
any of the domains we have mentioned on this show. And in fact, bonus points. No,
Zain
7:45
no, that's not accurate. Bonus points for any candidate who emails media at any of the domains that we have purchased, because Corey's going
Corey
7:52
going to spend all night tonight, all
Zain
7:53
all night tonight, making sure that all of
Corey
7:55
of those email addresses are set up. Yeah.
Corey
7:57
Yeah. Right, Corey? I mean, I could, but I won't. So, you know, you do you, candidates, but I will definitely not hear from you if you do that. That's fine. So, media at cartersmonthlynut.com
Zain
8:09
.com is also an acceptable place to send your request to to be on this show that gets 7 million-ish listeners an episode and
Zain
8:19
and is the top and best political podcast in the country.
Carter
8:21
country. Carter, if they email Media Carter's monthly nut, then
Carter
8:25
then their strategist gets to be another strategist on the show. Don't make it
Zain
8:31
more complicated. That's insane. You're now opening up a... Oh, I love it. I'm excited. No, you're the only one that opens it. This is my
Zain
8:39
Yeah, no kidding. Very nice. Carter, should we move on to our first segment?
Carter
8:44
no i think we should go on the hosting thing for a while okay
Zain
8:46
okay well i think we've made it did
Carter
8:47
did we talk about the hosting the announcement
Zain
8:48
announcement is big it's not for australians it's when every time we have a federal liberal
Zain
8:53
leader we've covered all of the details here you come on the show it's a huge bump it's historically proven you just got to host the show we got
Carter
9:00
got all that out and just
Carter
9:01
know in just nine minutes i
Corey
9:03
mean people forget but joyce murray was going to win the liberal leadership in 2012 before justin
Corey
9:09
justin trudeau came on trudeau
Zain
9:10
trudeau came on yeah
Zain
9:12
changed it all mark garner was going to come but he was uh he was stuck in space yeah
Corey
9:17
it's a setback and look what happened to him yeah no it's it's a big
Zain
9:20
big setback uh for him one one small step for humanity as i said
Corey
9:25
oh my god yeah that's what i said
Zain
9:27
carter are we good are we good cory let's Let's move it on to our first segment, Corey, our first segment, Global Elite. Donald
Zain
9:34
Donald Trump has zoomed in to Davos, where the Global Elite were hanging, and in a very long speech, he
Zain
9:42
he did some side swipes to Canada again. He mentioned that Canadian lumber, Canadian oil and gas, Canadian automotive sector, your cars, your lumber, your wood, your oil and gas, we don't need it. We don't need it. Become the 51st state or get ready to pay a tariff. Carter, we also know that based on a question in his first, you know, press conference, which was held in the Oval Office, Canada's own, Alberta's own, Josh Wingrove, asked Trump about the tariff plan. And he suggested that the date they were circling on the calendar, they being the Trump administration, was February 1st. Corey, where
Zain
10:22
where does this put us?
Corey
10:24
I don't know. It turns any. We're in the same place. put it that way i think that this is not in any way additive or revealing um the fact that people gasped in davos makes me think they weren't paying any fucking attention because he didn't really say anything new at this particular juncture he's continued to continue you know do his bellicose you've got to be the 51st state thing he's continued his we're going to introduce this tariff thing we didn't learn anything new and in fact i would argue um it's just more of the same but it is a troubling same right like let's not get numb to what donald trump is proposing here one
Corey
11:00
one the tariffs alone are very bad they're very damaging for the canadian economy they would be incredibly disruptive up here it would be incredibly disruptive in the united states he actually does need a lot of the products he's just described on that list there but two anybody who thinks he's joking about this 51st state thing anybody who thinks he's trolling about this i want to open your eyes a little bit here i want you to think about something that i i i feel is is actually pretty basic and that is that donald trump knows what his legacy is going to be right now he's crazy but he's not an idiot and this is a man who's been impeached multiple times he knows j6 you know january 6th is going to be a huge part of his legacy he knows the felonies are just looming right over him and he knows the only way he changes this story in his second term is if he does something big enough to overshadow those other things he's an old man he's looking for his legacy he's a gambler at the table way down hoping one big bet puts him back into it that's why he's talking about greenland that's why he's talking about panama that's why he's talking about canada it's why he's talking about all of these massive throws that really they don't make sense but if they were actually somehow to pay off it would it would just fundamentally change his place in the history books here this is a dangerous guy because he's looking for a legacy and he somehow has gotten in his mind that canada could be part of that legacy so it's alarming like we're not going to join the united states that's not realistic that's not practical we don't want to america doesn't want us to it's not going to happen but in pursuit of doing this he could do incredible damage to our country and his carter
Zain
12:34
carter in addition to the i'll get you to react to what cory said in
Zain
12:37
in addition to the tariffs waged against canada the threat of tariffs to be accurate he also suggested that nato defense spending needed to be 95% of GDP of allied NATO members, just to keep everyone up on the conversation. Canada has been struggling to get up to the 2%. And that has been a topic of national debate with tons of pressure for us to do so. Carter, where does this put us?
Carter
13:04
Well, I'll tell you something, it puts us behind the eight ball. You
Carter
13:08
You know, the idea
Carter
13:09
idea that these problems
Carter
13:13
going to go away in some fashion, I mean, it's
Carter
13:15
it's just not not highly likely these these problems will continue to persist, regardless of whether or not progress is made.
Carter
13:23
You know, we can stand strong against the the the the inputs from Donald Trump, but
Carter
13:30
but he's going to keep making these demands. And, you know, the the Overton window shifts as things are continually shift, you know, talked about, continually talked about, continually talked about. is a common currency that far off is a you know you know what what type of things would he be willing to accept as his replacement legacy if not the the
Carter
13:51
the whole kit and caboodle and i
Carter
13:54
don't know that he's not insane um
Carter
13:56
um i don't know that he's sane enough to not decide
Carter
14:01
decide that they're going to do this you know he's already threatened economic warfare um
Zain
14:06
um what do you think Do you think of Corey's piece of legacy as a political justification?
Carter
14:10
justification? I think that's a really good motivation.
Carter
14:12
But I don't think he needs legacy in
Carter
14:15
in order to feel this motivation. I think that he could just be this crazy and think that that's enough, right? Like his first
Carter
14:24
first fixation when he came in last time was dealing with the world's dictators. His fixation this time appears to be growth. They're just a different fixation. That's all. He's fixated like a child is fixated on a toy truck.
Zain
14:41
Corey, help me with this. What does a federal leader need to think about right now? You said not a lot has changed. And let me define federal leader. The two candidates running for prime minister, effectively, Pierre Poliev and Justin Trudeau. Let's put it at that handful. Jagmeet Singh and others. But like, sure, let's limit it to that group. Nothing has changed, but things are progressing. Like, it's not like, you
Zain
15:04
you know, we're still on the same track. And that actually, in its own right, is telling of something. The threat is more serious. So like, how are you thinking about how you're processing about it from either a comms brain or a strategy brain or even a policy brain, wherever you'd like to go?
Corey
15:20
Well, yeah, I think you've got to deal with a couple of different challenges concurrently. One of the challenges is this immediate moment of crisis. A, how you avoid it. B, how you retaliate and get out of it. And I think those two things are combined, if it happens. And then C, how
Corey
15:38
how you make sure this kind of thing is less likely to happen again in the future. So let's start with the first one. To avoid it, you've got to create a pressure that makes America think this is just like this is not going to go well for us, which is part of why I think a lot of us are pulling our hair out at Danielle Smith's actions and words and suggesting that Canadian oil shouldn't be on the table here. Because, I mean, it's almost the point. It's very important. Oil and gas is very important for the United States from Alberta. And so our ability to avoid all tariffs is strengthened if we threaten to put that on the table. And taking it off the table doesn't help us. If we take off the table the things America actually cares about, we are going to be screwed. We are going to end up with very big tariffs, right? And, you know, anybody who's giving,
Corey
16:22
giving, I think, Donald Trump the credit of being a rational actor is just not paying attention to Donald Trump's recent comments. And I encourage you to go back and sort of interpret them through the lens of what is this guy actually saying? What's he trying to do? Because his entire trade war is not rational. It's an emotional thing. It's a tough guy thing. How do you deal with a fucking tough guy? Answer that question, you find the answer to A, right?
Corey
16:45
there's things the government can do the government should be persuading americans should be out there making the case raising the stakes talking about what the risk to america's economy would be and working the networks that would encourage the governors and the republicans and the business leaders to um to tell donald trump you don't need to do this now in this way mexico's your real target china's your real target you
Corey
17:10
you don't really want to do this so we're going to to sound a little bit like doug ford there but i think that there's a reality that it's easier to you know yeah like because in mexico they're mexicans right they're not like us jesus
Corey
17:21
and in china they're
Corey
17:24
we're gonna move on from there they're
Zain
17:25
they're not like canadians they're chinese they're sorry that was my best doug ford uh you know the premier
Zain
17:29
gonna call an election next week yeah i've
Corey
17:31
i've heard of him yeah
Zain
17:33
uh i heard canada's
Zain
17:34
canada's not for i heard you like him a lot i heard i heard you're a big fan cory i heard you're a really big hey carter i'm I'm going to ask you a slightly different question.
Corey
17:41
question. Well, hey, hold on.
Corey
17:44
thought he's done. We
Zain
17:45
end on a joke of mine.
Corey
17:48
B is how do you get out? You're a leader and you're trying to get out of tariffs once they actually happen. And there you have to be tough and you have to be asymmetric. And if he's going to frame his tariffs in conquest, then you treat him like an oligarch and a conqueror. And you do things like, I've talked about this before, cancel those Trump trademarks. Ban X. sex tell uh shopify not shopify spotify and tell apple music they've got to take down podcasts from right-wing podcasters who are supporting it get fox news off the airwaves freeze accounts of people who are pushing for this who are in his inner circle use the oligarch playbook hurt him not americans and watch his head on on come off his you know body if you do need to move to the next thing and actually push back find time limited ways to push back if you're going to reduce Reduce electricity to the United States. Give a lot of notice and do it for 72 hours, just to make your point. Same with oil and gas. Do these things for time-limited periods, just to make your point. And then we've got to get to sea. And sea is where you can spend a lot more time. We spent eight years not doing anything to get ready for this. We've got to, as a country, get serious about how we strengthen our economy, strengthen our military, strengthen our cultural independence, and get out from underneath this particular thumb. It's a real challenge, and it's going to take years and years to do, but we've got to get through the moment of crisis, and then we've got to start protecting our country against acts like this in the future.
Zain
19:15
Carter, do you have much more to add to what Corey said here? Because if not, I want to ask you to play a role as political strategist Stephen Carter, and I'm going to give you a choice in terms of who you can strategize for. Oh,
Carter
19:25
Oh, great. I'll do the political strategy rule. Yeah,
Carter
19:28
Yeah, rather than this
Zain
19:30
For 200, thank you. Yeah, right, this professorial analysis that we got, yeah. Carter, who do you want? Do you want the Liberal Party of Canada, or do you want Daniel Smith?
Carter
19:37
Liberal Party of Canada.
Zain
19:39
You are being criticized that you guys have your head up your ass while this threat gets even more serious.
Zain
19:49
How are you defending against that as a party?
Zain
19:54
As you select the next prime minister, how are you defending against that right now when commentators, pundits, clearly your opposition are saying fucking prorogation, leadership election, like endorsements, like memberships, like, you know, jerking off into the wind while the country is in crisis? How are you strategizing for the party against
Zain
20:17
against that, Carter? And Corey, you're by default are going to get Daniel Smith in a second. I
Carter
20:21
I think that consistency, I think that the leadership contenders should be basically echoing Justin Trudeau when he says there's going to be dollar for dollar retaliation. I think that every single one of the leadership contenders should, at the very least, be echoing those comments. This isn't time for people to be freelancing and going off and doing their own thing and offering up their own deals. This is the time for the leadership contenders to stand behind the prime minister the way his cabinet would stand behind him as one. So that, I think, has to happen for the Liberal Party standing behind. That's it.
Zain
21:05
Is that happening right now, Carter? Give me an update in terms of where at least the leading candidates are. Are they in lockstep with where the PM is? Or do you see divergence being a tactic that is being taken right now? I
Carter
21:17
I haven't seen much divergence, but I also haven't seen a lot of people making direct statements saying that, you know, the prime minister is right to go for dollar for dollar trade retaliation. Right now, the leadership contenders seem content to allow the prime minister to speak, but they're not necessarily jumping in with their own with their own points of view.
Zain
21:38
Corey, any response there? And then I'll give you Daniel Spitz's scenario in a second.
Corey
21:42
Well, I think that the liberal contenders are in a tough place because one of the things that the liberals have been saying is we've got to hang together and we've got to work as a country.
Corey
21:52
So it becomes a little tough for them then to undermine whatever the prime minister is doing. So they are retreating, I will say, to just this, you know, wrap themselves in the flag. It's all about Nanaimo bars and snow and hockey. But their challenge
Zain
22:06
challenge is interesting, right? They're trying to actively distance themselves from the PM on everything, but be in lockstep with him on this thing?
Corey
22:14
Well, I don't know if I would describe it as being in lockstep with him on this thing. I would be saying, I am going to present the attributes that you are looking for in a leader who is going to best manage this file. And I think that's an important distinction, right? They're going to present themselves in a different way than Justin Trudeau would. They'll use a lot of subtext about the need to bring the country together and how what we really need in this moment is like economic strength and all of that, that can allow us to squint and kind of imagine what they would do in that situation. And of course, Freeland has made her entire campaign like free land, you know, as two separate words talking about her ability to stand up. We'll talk
Zain
22:51
talk about that in our branding episode, hopefully Sunday. Yeah,
Corey
22:53
Yeah, for sure. For Donald Trump or stand up to Donald Trump. And so, but she's not saying anything different than what the prime minister is saying. She is doing an exaggerated version of the character that she would bring to those negotiations in that debate and that conversation. And that's how the liberals are handling it right now. They're auditioning for the role, but they're not on the stage and they're acutely aware of that. that.
Zain
23:18
Corey, you're strategizing for Daniel Smith. I don't really have a task for you as much as it's an analysis and then strategize piece. So you may actually say, I don't need to do anything. How have your comments and your stances and your photo ops and your meetings with governors and the Republican leadership, how has that aged given today? And what, if anything, do you need to do if you're Daniel Smith?
Corey
23:40
think the challenge Daniel Smith always had, and to be fair, the challenge that Justin Trudeau had the minute he went down to Mar-a-Lago is the minute you engage with this guy any action he takes from that point forward will reflect on you in some way shape or form right
Corey
23:54
today oil and gas was mentioned and i'll tell you like i thought that justin trudeau i said at the time okay looks pretty bold going down there but the next thing that you know it all it's going to take is one tweet for it to look retroactively like a really bad idea that justin trudeau went down to mar-a-lago and i think that bore out and And it's not because there was any kind of brilliant insight by me. It's because Trump burns everybody he works with, everybody he negotiates with. And people probably should have been aware of that before they sent the premier of Alberta down to talk to him, too. Whatever you think of our motives, I just think tactically it was foolish for exactly what you said. All he needs to do is stand up and say, we don't give a shit about oil. I don't care. You know, we're going to do this. And you've gone from being somebody who's on Team Canada saying we're united against Donald Trump. that was your that was the path not taken to the person for daniel smith yes that's right to the person who took a different approach that just looks really ineffectual and that's a that's a dangerous place to be you know you went out on a ledge you you took the big swing you whatever metaphor you want here but now you're gonna have to own some of this and you're gonna have to wear it and we don't have really any polling in alberta that's specifically asking the question like hey hey, how do you feel about how Danielle Smith has done on this particular matter? I suspect it's days away. I suspect that Folling already exists in some situations here. But the vibes are not great, at least in Calgary, at least talking to Edmontonians. A lot of frustration with how she's taken this approach. And I think that
Corey
25:23
that when you look at how she ended up here,
Corey
25:27
she made a couple of risky bets, and those bets have not paid off. And it's as simple as that. So the question she now has is in some ways that parallel to Donald Trump's. Do you continue doubling down? Or do you ease off? Do you walk away from that table? Do you say this was not a smart bet? And my view is in the last couple of days, she
Corey
25:46
she has kind of softened her language. Now, every now and then they swing back the other way. But I'm not feeling the same bellicosity that I was a week ago on this. I think she's starting to realize, at the very least, she needs a bit of a diversified portfolio approach here. You know, pictures with Pete Hegseth as he's being accused of, you know, assaulting his wife or ex-wife and hanging out at Mar-a-Lago. These are not good vibes at moments like this. And I think we're starting to see that.
Corey
26:16
Carter, was it a mistake? Mar-a-Lago, the
Zain
26:18
the governors, the inauguration? And react to what Corey said here, too. Yeah,
Carter
26:24
I mean, I think that, you
Carter
26:28
you go down and you try and deal with Trump in good faith, you're going to get fucked.
Carter
26:32
Because Trump is not someone who negotiates in good faith. The history of contractors not getting paid, the history of people who have tried to deal with Donald Trump in good faith and have been screwed are legendary. I mean, it just continues on and on and on. Even the documents case, you know, like how he put away all of those documents in Mar-a-Lago. He doesn't feel bound by contractual obligations. He doesn't feel bound by niceties and norms. He is instead someone who will float
Carter
27:11
float the rules in order to get what he wants to achieve. and what he wants to achieve is not parallel interest to what daniel smith wants to achieve what he wants you know what he wants to achieve and this is where people like uh don braid and rick bell and the people who are carrying daniel smith's water right now um man they're gonna they're gonna suffer because at some point uh
Carter
27:36
uh and i don't even think we've gotten close to it But
Carter
27:38
But at some point, Daniel Smith is going to be absolutely laid open by Donald Trump because that's what he does. You know, when you say you don't need Canadian oil, you're fucking nuts. You're fucking nuts. So this is the guy. This is the play
Carter
27:58
play that he's going to make. And Daniel Smith's going to look like a fucking idiot. Corey? Yeah,
Corey
28:03
I think that one of the things that we should remember is that while this is the hugest deal in Canada, it's obviously just the side of Donald Trump's desk. And we're pretty lucky about that. Also, it doesn't speak well to us that the side of his desk can put us into such existential crisis as a country, right? right? But let's be clear, he's not putting his whole ass into this. If we take at face value that he wants Canada as a 51st state, like he sees this as a solution, he would have gone a good distance to tearing our country in pieces if today he had not said, we don't need Canadian oil, but said the opposite. That's the one thing we do need. We're willing to exempt that. Imagine what that would have done to our country. But he didn't, because he's only half paying attention to this file. He's only half taking it seriously. But
Corey
28:48
But as a country, we need to take it seriously. And there's a very asymmetric relationship here we need to be mindful of.
Corey
28:54
Can we play that game
Zain
28:55
game for a second?
Zain
28:57
the alternative reality? God, sure. Okay, walk me through it. Walk me through it. So today, the speech, fuck lumber. Yeah. Fuck your automotive sector. Don't need them. Canadian oil and gas. He says it in the most Trumpian way. I don't I don't I we could make some use of that until we says some version of that right we need it with like Canadian
Corey
29:18
important very special Alberta's got a great premier she's told me some great things about this I think that we could really make a deal I think we can deal with her that is a reasonable leader that
Zain
29:28
sure premier's office for here is that Carter how should they be reacting how
Zain
29:34
how and how would that yeah no no how would what should in this How would and how should, right? And then, like, walk me through, because I don't think people understand, like, how this—I shouldn't say ages, because I've just used that term with her takes, but yeah, let me use that. Like, how does this—as soon as it lands, it might give you one emotion, and as soon as it metastasizes this news, it may give you another one.
Carter
29:57
Yeah, I mean, I honestly don't know, Zane. I mean, I'm
Carter
30:01
I'm actually looking to Corey to help me out on this one. Like, this is— Well, we're still going
Zain
30:04
going to work together. I'm just kind of curious about this. Like, if that were the case today, how would that premier's office, how should they and would they have reacted? How would this have been received by the Canadian media? How would it should, like, what would the narratives be? I'm kind of curious about where that would land, because that day could come, by the way, right?
Corey
30:23
it's not destined to happen because it didn't
Zain
30:26
A hundred percent. To your point about him paying half attention, right? Like he's doubling down today, but he's backtracked on many files many times or changed course with often no rationale. So,
Corey
30:38
you have anything to
Zain
30:39
to throw onto the table in terms of how this was related? Help me out, Corey. Help me out.
Corey
30:44
I think that the obvious response, if you're Daniel Smith at that moment, is to say, see, diplomacy works. works i went down there and look what i able to was able to do and the rest of you are fools for not taking this diplomatic approach with me i was right you were wrong but how it's going to play in the rest of the country is very different it's going to be holy fuck you traitor you betrayed the rest of this country just to get your pieces of silver just to make sure that uh that the alberta oil and gas industry could continue the oil industry really we're talking about specifically here right yeah
Corey
31:16
and that's it's going to create incredible tensions within confederation so my point was that was this that was the step he could take to create the biggest tensions within our country right and the pressure would then be in the rest of the country very strong to say nope you know oil's in this bundle too it's all or none but daniel smith now being presented with a reality where it is entirely up to canada whether canadian oil is subject to these that's
Corey
31:42
that's That's a very stressful thing for this country. And I mean that in the sense of like the way it would pull at the country. So that, I mean, if I'm Danielle Smith, it's, my answer is pretty easy. It's to say, see, I told you so. Yeah. It's all about diplomacy and you, you get to kind of take a victory lap, both at the provincial and federal level, but it just is not going to play very well. Like, like what's her option?
Corey
32:03
option? The alternative is to say, I did this wrong. I got exactly what I wanted. No, I mean, she has only one option because
Zain
32:07
because this is what she's fighting for. This is where I'm at, Carter, too, which is that, you know, she could spin it and there's an easy tale to tell.
Zain
32:16
it might be very satisfying to tell that tale initially. But isn't a carve out based on her actions now the worst thing that could happen to Danielle Smith politically? politically?
Carter
32:28
What does she need? She's only going to run for re-election in Alberta. She's not ever going to seek national office. Sure, every other premier is going to hate her. The prime minister is going to hate her. But it's
Carter
32:37
it's not like she's getting a, you know, a
Carter
32:40
a tremendous number of Valentines on Valentine's Day from those folks anyways. She's already an outcast within that system. And so who cares? Who cares? If she got her carve out, she'd be singing and dancing. should
Carter
32:57
should she be i i don't
Carter
33:00
don't think so i think that you know fuck
Carter
33:03
i care about the country i don't i don't know maybe i'm just uh maybe i'm just a little slow but i actually think the country matters cory
Zain
33:10
cory was a carve out not the worst thing to happen to smith with the track she's laid
Corey
33:16
think a carve out is what she wanted and so it's hard to say it's the worst thing but it is very much a be careful what you wish for thing um
Corey
33:23
um i i again we've said this before pierre polyev's got a huge lead but this is how you blow huge leads like the pressure on him to then go against alberta would be very by the way he's still mealy-mouthed incredibly quiet on it and i do think that well i don't i don't put a ton of stock in the ecos numbers showing such a tightening of the race seven point race yeah i i'm man let's let's wait for a few more pollsters on that one right but um i'm all in okay
Corey
33:51
okay i believe it good for you any um any
Zain
33:53
any anything you want to declare um any no okay cool well
Corey
34:00
well i i think um i think it would it would cause the conservatives a lot of trouble and that is the kind of thing that can start to really screw up with some federal ambitions and it would really isolate alberta and the other thing i'd point out is well oil and gas gas or oil let's just keep it to oil it's just reflex to say oil and gas in this province right well oil is obviously very important to alberta it's not the only thing you know agriculture is a big thing here we don't have as much manufacturing but there is manufacturing here it's just kind of what i was going to get to like you know with other industries yeah it's going to create crazy tensions and it's going to manifest in rural alberta in in her base and and i guess this is just to go back to it, not to beat this dead horse, but this is exactly why calling for these kinds of carve-outs or exemptions are suggesting they should be free from tariffs because that's just better for one industry. It's very dangerous for a premier of a whole province. And our ability to avoid tariffs on everything we have in Alberta, this goes back to my point A, right? We got to be tough. We got to put it all on the table. We might not want to do it, but we have to be willing to to take a stand on this. And it's a certain amount of mutually assured destruction, brinkmanship style negotiation, but that's the kind of negotiation Donald Trump responds to.
Zain
35:17
Carter, I'm going to make a hard pivot to the liberal leadership race, although there are some through lines, even with the polling you'd suggested here.
Zain
35:24
I got a couple of things I want to talk about.
Zain
35:27
And let me use the ECOS polling, even if it might be an outlier, as a case for something that might be happening with the
Zain
35:38
it seems like for a first time in a long time, there's a bit of hope. You'll
Zain
35:42
You'll see some candidates who are suggesting they're going to run again, even though they've said their goodbyes. Now
Zain
35:48
saying that with, and in this case, particularly Carney, has been the focus of many of these folks being like, if this guy's in, I'm in, right? Yeah.
Zain
35:58
I'm not going to say, is this hope good?
Zain
36:00
But how do you, because I think we know the answer to that. Unless you disagree with the natural answer of yes, then please jump in. But I guess my question is, like, how do you capitalize on this? And how do you utilize, because you're having to run a strategic sort of renewal
Zain
36:17
renewal campaign without conceding defeat. You're having to show that the outsider is viable. You're having to do all these things while this crisis level threat of the future of your country's economy, and by extension, your
Zain
36:32
your country, right, like on many other levels, is at the brink. So what do you kind of make of this very quick hope that has been ejected, or at least seems to be, injected within the Liberal universe? And does it have an outpouring beyond the small container that is the Liberal Party of Canada?
Carter
36:51
I think that hope is contagious. I think that hope will move beyond the Liberal Party of Canada. But I think that this is just really emphasizing the problem with the leadership dynamic in Canadian politics. and in politics in general around the world because we've made things so leader-centric when
Carter
37:12
when the leader becomes tremendously unpopular it
Carter
37:16
it appears to be very
Carter
37:18
very easy to remove all of that and Pierre Polyev I think is another example of it Aaron O'Toole leaves and in comes Polyev and all of a sudden there's a tremendous amount of hope and and expectation
Carter
37:29
expectation around Polyev even though he's done, I think, exceptionally little to have deserved any credit on the national stage. He can speak well, and he comes across good in a video, and suddenly he's the great white hope. Well, now
Carter
37:45
now there's another couple of people who can speak well and come across nicely in a video, and they're the next great white hopes. And the hope seems to be
Carter
37:55
be easily It's easily manufactured in this society as long as you don't have to govern.
Carter
38:02
And the second you have to govern, the hope dissipates because there's just, it's too hard to, it's
Carter
38:11
it's too hard to meet people's expectations in today's society, in the leader-centric society.
Zain
38:17
Cory, what do you kind of think of this, this hope that's being presented that's being sprung
Zain
38:23
sprung on in the on Canadians, or at least liberals in some way?
Corey
38:30
Well, it's like Dave said, right? Hope is a good thing, maybe the best thing, and no good thing ever dies. It's pretty foundational for a political party to move forward. A hopeless political party is not only not going to win, but they're probably going to lose pretty hard. And the liberals need that hope. That hope is what gets them out of bed in the morning. That hope is what drives them forward. it uh carter i think you should avoid the phrase a great white hope i'm fairly certain that comes from like a more racially tinged time just just as a heads up no but they're they're
Corey
39:03
unless ruby dallas gonna win uh
Zain
39:05
they're white yeah so it's fine i'm good yeah
Corey
39:09
was talking about sharks but the great hope of the party is something that i mean great great great white hope no just great hope just great hope great purebred
Zain
39:16
purebred white hope of the party yeah
Corey
39:19
it's what what you mean i'm not feeling that one no you're
Zain
39:21
you're not feeling that one i i personally am so
Corey
39:24
okay well i'm fairly certain it comes from when you know black boxers and white boxers fought each other and they were looking for a white boxer that could beat the black boxers so how
Corey
39:33
how dare you carter once again
Corey
39:36
dare you carter i
Carter
39:37
i feel awful now uh
Zain
39:39
uh you do and you should how
Zain
39:41
how dare you how dare you take us down this path okay cory
Corey
39:44
cory keep going well
Corey
39:45
well i think that we just we just you you know, we discount how much motivation plays in these things. Like we tend to look at it and say, oh, here's where the polls are there. And here's where the money is over here. And the reality is political parties are constructs made up of people. And if those people are motivated, you're going to get more out of them than not. Even if that more out of them is not enough to win the election, it can really change some of the context of that election. But Carter,
Zain
40:11
Carter, there does seem to be something going on, at least, and I guess what I'm trying to ask as a strategist to the two of you is the balance between hope and delusion, which is always given a negative connotation. But do you need people to be deluded in some ways in order to generate more hope, in order to generate more effort, in order to generate more ambition? Like, you know, there's folks right now that are saying, oh, I think my seat's winnable. I'm
Zain
40:38
I'm coming back in the the game. Yeah, right. And you're hearing a few folks, maybe, maybe it might just be those few folks, right? But you're hearing a bit of that. And there's something interesting about that, where I don't know if it's hope, I don't know if it's delusion, but something's happening. And how do you capitalize on what that is, whatever label you want to give it?
Carter
40:57
Well, back in the day, I used to call it myth. You know, when when something reached a mythical level, I've stopped calling it that because people say that myth is the equivalent of a lie. And based on myth i guess i have to accept that except one yep
Carter
41:12
yeah um but nonetheless um this idea of myth is when something becomes larger than the than the truth that sustains it and the myth that is um
Carter
41:27
you know starting to attach itself to various leadership campaigns starting to attach itself to the uh
Carter
41:33
uh the liberal party it
Carter
41:34
it would be mythical to
Carter
41:36
to see them you know rise
Carter
41:38
rise from the dead and
Carter
41:39
and uh you know after three days suddenly emerged from the cave in which they've been buried and put forth as the as as the the chosen one the uh the the son of the father um i think that that is probably did i get confused did i get lost halfway through that i might have i i think i made a religious anyways the point of the exercise is when something becomes mythical it really does does have power and i would argue nenshi 1.0 became mythical i think that allison redford became mythical in her leadership when her mother died especially that would became a mythical moment um joe
Carter
42:19
joe t gondek has been mythical uh they have grown beyond the there's
Carter
42:24
there's been three mythical campaigns
Corey
42:25
all of which you've been involved in yeah i was noted yeah well
Carter
42:30
carny anyways um it
Carter
42:34
it all comes to a head i
Zain
42:37
don't know it really all it all really all yeah that's right cory do you if you are the liberal universe do you want to buy into this equals poll or do you want to express caution like how you
Zain
42:49
you do not want to buy into this poll okay so talk to me about that right because of course you've got some organizers who are like who are going to want to be like hey you know we got to be level-headed about this this is one of of one like one billion but others might be like fuck it this shows that things are happening that we need this to be true in order for people to work harder in order for it to actually potentially one day be true like so i like talk about the balance there if you understand what i'm putting down of
Corey
43:16
of course i think in general live by the pole die by the pole you want to be pointing them to other signs ones that are more in your control and not what frank grave sees on any given day in terms of what's giving you that hope so i mean by all means if you're on the carny campaign point to carny's launch video it's a really great doesn't that just like just hit things for you right talk about all of the endorsements talk about how you're getting all of this buzz going talk about the memberships you're selling you control these things you don't control what the pollsters see on any given day and i think that where parties often run themselves into trouble is by saying uh whether i am in a good mood or a bad mood is based on my polling because
Corey
43:54
because you don't control polling yeah
Corey
43:56
and so a smart political party will actually try to point people towards the signs that they do control and and say what you will about donald trump and i'd say a lot of nasty things frankly but the way they're like fuck the polls nobody cares about the polls polls are bullshit how do you feel how are the neighbors you're talking to talking that is something that they have a little bit more ability to manage and that matters in politics carter
Zain
44:22
see this poll you're working on a campaign how are you selling that to your folks like how are you trying to
Zain
44:30
best weaponize that for your maximum political benefit to your own supporters to your own universe keep
Carter
44:37
keep in mind that it's not a poll that says if you know mark carney wins then this is it's a liberal poll but it is a it is a poll that says the liberals are moving and
Carter
44:49
and i think that That the way I would characterize this, I'm not sure I believe the ECOS poll. I mean, I'm looking for more data. But what I would characterize is this
Carter
45:00
this movement is possible because the liberals have taken action. And it just reminds us that action delivers results. So let's keep going through this. Let's make the action more profound, more intense, and see what we can actually achieve collectively. Collectively, and I think that that would will generate some, some, some positives for the liberals.
Zain
45:25
Corey, jump in. And then I've got I've got two other things I want to talk about very quickly in this race that I've seen this week. well
Corey
45:30
well the reality is polls do exist and you can look at campaigns that say oh the only poll that matters is on election we've talked about this right nobody nobody actually believes that so people are going to look at the polls they are going to say have you seen this fucking poll and you need to you need to moderate them you need to do basically what steven said which is to say hey look i mean that's positive do i fully believe it no do i even 80 believe it no but i do believe we're on the move and i do believe we're setting the foundation for future growth and that's because Because of your reaction. And by the way, do you see this video? Did you see the numbers? Did you see, did you see things that we, you know, actually control as organizers rather than the things that we don't? So
Zain
46:10
I want to talk about Gilboa and I want to talk about Freeland's strategy. Let's start with Freeland's strategy. And Corey, I'm going to start with you. So since her launch, she's trying a lot, it seems, to distance herself from the prime minister. Going on morning television saying, you know, one thing I do different is not fire my finance minister the weekend ahead before I'm supposed to give the fiscal update. day. She's walking away on policy from the capital gains aspect of things. She's trying actively and aggressively, not to
Zain
46:41
to undercut Justin Trudeau, but to take the most firmest stance in the race, I would say, against Justin
Zain
46:46
Justin Trudeau. One would say, duh, she's got like the closest linkage. So of course, she's got to go hardest in that opposite direction.
Zain
46:54
But is it working for you, Corey? And do you have any advice for her around how she would do that? Because once again, we're talking about rapid timelines here, right? She doesn't have months to lay out a series of policies so that three months later, she looks like a completely different person than the Christopher Freeland that we always knew. She's got to do this in pretty rapid succession. And to do that, she's got to punch through. So what advice would you give her as she goes on her journey of distancing, which she's already on, moving forward?
Corey
47:24
forward? Yeah, on one level, I 100% get at it she needs to shove him harder because she's standing closer to him right carnie
Corey
47:32
carnie is a little bit more distant carnie's able to say hey you know i i advised every now and then my advice a lot of world leaders what are you talking about there's a lot of world
Zain
47:40
world leaders do you know how
Corey
47:41
how many boards i was on before i quit them all i do i do know all of them yeah
Zain
47:44
yeah i am no
Corey
47:45
no they were listening you know why
Zain
47:46
why because he told me yeah
Corey
47:47
yeah he told well
Corey
47:48
he told everyone i mean i know him i know but he told everyone sorry he told everyone you know you know one person i don't know is i
Corey
47:56
she's closer so she needs to push harder but totally there is there is a reality here which is at a certain point it starts to feel like well if you feel so strongly about the guy what the fuck were you doing right and so there is there is this like needle that she needs to thread here because if you had such problems with his financial approach what the fuck were
Zain
48:16
were you doing why
Corey
48:17
why were you there if you had such qualms with delivering these financial statements why Why did you wait to be fired before you were mad about it? Why didn't you say something then? Yes, I get there were tensions behind the scenes. I understand that. I understand that was part of how it came to a head here, but you had a lot of choices and you had a lot of options and you can play the, well, you know, but I'm just one member of a team card for sure. And I think people understand that. But if you dial the rhetoric up a little too high, people start to say, well, if that's how extreme you felt, your actions make no sense to me. And so that's the challenge she has as she moves forward here. And I also just think realistically, it's tough for somebody who is so closely tied with the rise of Justin Trudeau to disown Justin Trudeau in any meaningful way. So she's in a bit of a box. I think she has given herself license to be the one who's firmest about his leadership with people. And she is also using that as an example of her being tough more broadly and tough with Trump. But I just don't know if it's going to work, if I'm being frank. Greg, Carter,
Zain
49:22
Carter, I'll come to you in a second. Corey, let me ask you the foundational question here, though, on strategy. Is distancing yourself from Trudeau still the right approach for her?
Corey
49:32
It's the only approach. Like, what's their alternative? Well, there is an argument to be made, and let me try to make it, maybe not
Zain
49:38
that there's an 80,000-person base, that this list is not going to grow, that this was the Justin Trudeau party since 2013. These are the Justin Trudeau members, and you were the closest to Justin Trudeau. So there might be fertile ground for you to not do what you think you need to do in the general election, but win the leadership. Now, I don't know if – there might be fault lines and holes in what I've put out there. I'm just going on what some of the – I don't have access to the database. I don't – but I'm making some what I think are pretty logical assumptions to say, does Chrystia Freeland need to be what
Zain
50:12
what she needs to be in the general election today? day? And isn't the whole value of our leadership that, and in some strange way, Carney's looking like continuity, but that's maybe an aside, and we can discuss it here, but that's my theory to you.
Corey
50:25
Well, it's a good one, I think. I do agree that in general, and we know just from the chatter that Chrystia Freeland and her team were pushing for basically a retroactive membership cutoff, that it would be the existing membership that determined this all. Like, we know this from reporting. Not even reporting, just from the rumors and the whispers that are out there. but um i'm not really sure i
Corey
50:47
i i'm not i'm just not so sure like i i think that part of what the liberals are looking for is is that hope that we were talking about earlier they're looking for the opportunity to win and so they will accept a certain amount of distance they'll accept whatever they think will give them the best opportunity at this point because they are more than any other political party kind of hardwired to say what's it going to take to survive right that's a big part of the liberal brand your your theory though i don't want to dismiss right there there certainly seems like there could have been a path for i am the person who's going to carry on the legacy of this party and it doesn't really look like like gold is kind of doing that i the funny thing is i think from a policy point of view she is i think her words are in some ways harsher than christia freeland's they're like the liberal party is broken the liberal party needs to fix itself Yeah.
Corey
51:42
yeah, I don't know. It's something to think about, Zane. But it seems to me that the assumption that you are making is that the membership wants
Corey
51:50
wants continuity from Trudeau. And I'm just not sure that's
Zain
51:53
that's the case. At least a portion. Of course, you add the point system, you add the geography, you add all these other complications and you don't know where all of this resides and you add the growth of the membership. But Carter, I'll ask you the fundamental question as well to answer it to the degree you feel comfortable. Does Christopher Freeland need to continue on the distancing track with Trudeau with the short timeline between now and the membership deadline?
Carter
52:15
Yes, it would be lunacy not to. It
Carter
52:17
It would be lunacy to accept the premise of the previous points that there are 80,000 members and there were Trudeau members. There were very few Trudeau members by the end of the Trudeau reign. that's why he's no longer the leader if he'd been the leader you know do you remember that fundraising appeal that they put out on was it new year's eve uh hi it's justin i'd like to raise some money you
Carter
52:46
you know what do you bet that that thing raised nothing like sweet fuck all like three dollars and 52 cents that came from justin himself that was him maxing out his final donation like that is that's
Carter
53:00
that's what we're talking about from the membership do you do you like we all i think all three of us saw that that uh that appeal and went what the fuck are they even doing do they not recognize the position that this guy is in and they're putting out a hey it's justin i'm on my way out the door but i'd like you to give us some cash that was their their fundraising appeal like Like, this is—Christopher
Carter
53:24
is—Christopher Freeland has to distance, distance, distance. Mark Carney has to distance, distance, distance. Everybody who's in this race— How's
Carter
53:32
How's Freeland doing in the distancing? She's struggling with it.
Carter
53:36
Because the problem with it is that she is now distancing herself from things that she was doing. I
Carter
53:44
I would like to see her distance or distance on immigration or distance on employment structure or distance on, you know, like, fuck, I don't give a shit. Fisheries. You can't just be differencing yourself, differentiating yourself on the portfolio that you held. that
Carter
54:03
that is where that's what cory was kind of alluding to earlier is that she is looking now like she was serving and just serving as a as a you know a waiter taking down the order and doing what they're told right that's not the job of a finance minister finance minister is supposed to stand there and say no sometimes and christopher freeland uh if she continues to try and paint the relationship as one-sided as she's trying to present it as with the prime minister she's going to make herself look incredibly weak well
Corey
54:40
well i would be really curious and maybe this has happened i haven't watched all of her all of her commentary all of her stuff but i want to hear the things that she actually was successful in getting justin trudeau to reconsider right like oh here's how i i made sure that we were more economically competitive yeah
Zain
54:57
yeah things that didn't happen or yeah
Corey
54:58
yeah yeah he wanted things that i did that you really like that are a little bit different that i pushed for right instead of the here's the ways i failed over nine months or whatever like that's that's a bit
Corey
55:08
bit more challenging for me cory
Zain
55:09
cory talk to me about gilbo this
Zain
55:11
this is an interesting one for me is it well
Zain
55:13
well i think it is and you might tell me it's not but it has been interesting to me so gilbo endorses carney yeah
Corey
55:20
what a twist fucking
Zain
55:22
fucking polyeth makes a video uh
Zain
55:25
uh mark carney's being endorsed by the radical environmentalist who wants to triple quadruple ten time the carbon tax right so it's it's an anchor that that and on one hand it's a it's a it's an anchor that carney has to now where i've been like fuck the gilbo endorsement on another hand you could look at this way if gilbo's willing to pretty much align with carney a guy who said he's going to axe the consumer facing carbon tax then the carbon tax is dead like
Zain
55:53
we can move on from this
Corey
55:54
this chapter this guy's not going to be a holdout no
Corey
55:56
no he's not going to be railing against from inside saying what a horrible shame this is right one
Corey
56:02
one would hope like
Corey
56:02
like he could like he's
Corey
56:03
he's been known to do
Zain
56:04
do that right like so like maybe he might be the rare exception he's known to do that no i mean there was a lot of reporting that he was very upset about the carve outs right and he said like One more fucking carve out and I'm gone, right? Or some version of that. So two ways to look at it, right?
Zain
56:17
right? One, it's, oh my God, fucking Stephen Gilbeau. That's a brand on its own that I don't want to wear and cater to. And frankly, even I would rather reject his endorsement. Please distance yourself. Point number two, if we got Gilbeau, this means that like axing the tax, carbon tax election, not on the table, despite whatever short form video Pierre Polyev makes in the moment. Those are two schools of thought. There's probably a lot of room in between. Where are you from like a strategist perspective on this? Let me put you in Team Carney's perspective and kind of have you assess it that way. Yeah,
Corey
56:50
Yeah, well, of course, as an Albertan, it's hard not to have, I mean, he's not very popular here. Duh, right? That's something we all know. To
Corey
56:59
the point that our
Zain
56:59
our premier, I think, told Tucker Carlson to have him in his crosshairs or some version of
Corey
57:03
it, right? Oh, I mean,
Corey
57:04
mean, that's not even- And that's just one example. That's not even that. It's just he tends to take a very extreme view of these things and, and talk almost in like caricature ways about the oil and gas industry. And you know, there's just a lot of whatever you think of oil and gas industry, there's a lot of complexity and nuance, and he just he has no understanding of any of it. And so it frustrates people who have even a modest understanding of how the industry works. but um that said i do ultimately feel that
Corey
57:30
that look the conservatives right now are running the election they wanted not the election they're going to get and i don't fully understand what their thought process is here because there's there's just no way this is going to be an election about the carbon tax if carney says where i'm not going to have a carbon tax like what's it going to be like oh man can you believe that carbon tax the last guy did like how do you sustain that for four or five as
Zain
57:53
as much as we talk about the ghost of justin trudeau it might actually have uh an expiry date on it quicker
Corey
57:59
than well come on i mean like they're going through the stages of grief they've they're they're drifting through denial thinking that they're still going to get to call them carbon tax carny and run on a carbon tax and run the exact same plan they're moving through anger at this point they're just bending the curve to bargaining where they're starting to say oh well we'll do some other stuff that basically talks about how he had a play in this carbon tax and you didn't like that right but it's not gonna it's
Corey
58:24
it's not gonna The carbon tax seems so
Zain
58:24
so small, so petty, so much of just like a wart compared to the size of the Trump tariffs.
Corey
58:32
Yeah, well, and don't get me, don't misunderstand me.
Corey
58:36
If that's the envy the ballot box question. No, I'm not even saying, I'm saying, look, people didn't like the carbon tax. The carbon tax affected the government's popularity. That is the hole the liberals now need to dig out of. But you are not going to sustain a conversation for five weeks on a finished topic, on a done deal, on a closed thing, on a dead letter. It's not happening. So I think that the sooner Pierre Polyev can wrap his head around that and move to whatever this campaign is going to be, not what he wanted it to be, the better off the conservatives are going to be.
Zain
59:07
You have some limitations, perhaps, in commenting.
Zain
59:10
But talk to me about the assessment of the Gilboa. Two ways that I presented it to you, neither of which are, like, perhaps the exact swim lanes, but how are you thinking about this?
Carter
59:21
there have been times in my
Carter
59:24
my career we've gotten and i'm trying to think of a specific example but
Carter
59:28
but there's times when you get an endorsement by someone that you really don't want to get an endorsement from actually i remember craig chandler went in 2004 he ran for the leadership of the progressive conservative party against jim prentice and uh i don't even think that you know So
Carter
59:44
Craig Chandler had a delegate there.
Carter
59:46
It was a delegated convention. But his speech, he stood up on
Carter
59:50
on the night before the first vote and pledged all his delegates to Jim Prentiss.
Carter
59:56
And I'll tell you something, I never wanted to receive an endorsement less than receiving that endorsement from Craig Chandler. but but
Corey
1:00:06
this is not that though like just to be clear like i know you're broadening it to step away from
Carter
1:00:10
from like you're the same my point is simply this my point is that it you don't get to choose you don't get to turn it away you don't get to say i'm sorry no you just say well there you go and then you go and fucking tell your story you go out there and you tell your story and you don't change because steven gilboa came on board and you don't change because you didn't get randy Andy Bossineau. You go and you tell your story and you do what you need to do.
Corey
1:00:38
Yeah, I mean, well put. And realistically, as long as Gilbo went in with eyes wide open and knew what Mark Carney was going to do, you do have a problem resolved to your earlier point, Zane, because you can't really rail against him for doing the thing if he knows he's going to do it.
Corey
1:00:54
Carter, are we going to leave it there? Are we going to go with the over
Zain
1:00:56
over under the lightning round? It really does depend on if you've got the energy. Let's
Carter
1:01:00
Let's go, baby. Over
Zain
1:01:01
Over under in our lightning round. Stephen Carter, overrated or underrated the impact of the Braid and Bell duo on the Danielle Smith narrative? It's both a litmus test of the current sort of media climate, but I'm kind of curious, is their work overrated or underrated in terms of where it might potentially land in the narrative in the conversation? Well,
Carter
1:01:26
Well, it's completely overrated. I mean, no one's reading them except the pundits. But here's the problem. They have been, you know, typing up her notes and putting them out as newspaper articles for the last few months and doing so with absolute impunity. And all of a sudden, they're
Carter
1:01:43
they're being called traitors and not by just a few people. So many people have called them traitors that both of them have writing columns, writing columns about how I'm not really a traitor. you guys are being mean to me you're being mean to me and you're making me sad well i'll tell you something they're
Carter
1:02:00
they're going to be thinking about whether or not they're going to be taking notes for danielle smith in the coming months they're going to be much more objective journalists in the coming months because of the shit show that happened in this past couple of weeks so i think that it's kind of underrated
Carter
1:02:13
underrated what's happened because they're not going to just take the spin from the premier's office and say well that's the way i'm going to write it then they're going to to see uh you're going to start to see a lot more new spin and if i was not heading nancy i'd be getting in there not calling them out but instead saying oh you guys got played you know quietly
Carter
1:02:34
you guys got a little bit played there but you come to us we'll make sure that you get the information you need cory
Zain
1:02:41
cory what do you think overrated or underrated the the impact that their work is having right now in setting the narrative in the conversation here in alberta Well,
Corey
1:02:48
Well, so for those who aren't aware, there's been like a week of columns of varying degrees of Daniel Smith was right. There was a really embarrassing moment for both of them when they talked about Daniel Smith's approach worked on Monday, just before the press conference where Trump effectively said, no, tariffs are still on for February 1. And they both had to take down and rewrite their columns, like just just brutal stuff, right. And I think they're so desperate to prove their first columns right that they're losing a little bit of perspective here. And I'm sure they're feeling very assaulted by people calling them traitors. I'm sure they don't think of themselves as traitors. I'm sure they're not in any kind of meaningful sense of that term. right but columnists do best when they're reflecting the public not relaying the government's message to the public and my hot take here is this never would have happened if post media was in better shape at this point they all work from home they work by talking to people on the phone and having meetings they don't run into people the same way they used to they don't have their news room to keep them sane this is crackers like when i read these post media columnists right now and even when i read like getting into chris nelson talking about energy you all need to go outside side and touch grass like this is not the conversation on the streets of Calgary and Rick Bell's column today and I got a lot of time for Rick I know a lot of people roll their eyes at him but you know he he does legitimately try to represent the people a lot of the time but the idea that you're sitting there saying well I would be right if you exclude Calgary and you're a fucking I mean Carter you were making this point to me you're a fucking columnist for For the Calgary Herald and the Calgary Sun, your
Corey
1:04:25
your job is to reflect Calgary. That is your market. You are so outside of any kind of rational thought at this point. Come back to us. Just come back to us. You know, it was a moment of weakness. You went too far. Come back to us. Just take an honest assessment of
Zain
1:04:41
Corey, let's move on for a second.
Zain
1:04:45
Doug Ford's got the $200 rebate checks in the mail. A senior PC source suggests that he's about to call an election next Wednesday. He's taken on the Captain Canada sort of mantle. Have you ever seen a better triangulation for an election call in your time than Doug Ford, despite commentary
Zain
1:05:07
commentary about Doug Ford, which I have plenty of to offer? Have you seen a better triangulation in setting the stage than what Doug Ford is about to do next Wednesday? uh
Corey
1:05:17
uh look i mean it's way too early to call that like we haven't actually seen the stage be set sure and we haven't seen the result of that election it it does seem pretty strong right what
Carter
1:05:29
hedge that no but
Carter
1:05:32
i'm just i'm just talking about
Zain
1:05:33
about the starting line
Carter
1:05:34
this is a triangulation this is a triangulation that has been brilliant he has put the the the the Liberal Party, and the NDPs on their knees before him. And he has proven to be one of the strongest political operatives in the country. I can never tell
Zain
1:05:54
tell when you're being sarcastic. The
Carter
1:05:55
The man fucking walks on water right now. I don't want
Carter
1:05:59
to like him, but I do.
Zain
1:06:02
You actually mean that. You're impressed by this, because I have to admit, I am too. It's
Carter
1:06:09
He's going to crush this election.
Carter
1:06:11
crush yeah i don't know about the outcome but at least i think you
Carter
1:06:14
definitely killed it my foot down right now i'm putting a line in the sand i am drawing a conclusion doug ford wins this election in a landslide uh
Zain
1:06:25
uh carter final question um one
Zain
1:06:28
one thing that stood out to you at the inauguration one
Carter
1:06:32
one thing that stood out to me sure yeah no one i know watched it oh
Corey
1:06:37
yeah that's interesting i didn't watch it everybody
Carter
1:06:40
everybody i know stayed away from it i don't think either the pain is real i
Corey
1:06:48
haven't answered though i found a there was a tiktok of somebody who was like a lip reader and they were looking at barack obama and uh he's talking to george w bush did you see this yeah how do we stop how do we stop this thing how do we stop this thing yeah that's pretty
Corey
1:07:02
pretty good he goes over he's like hey how's it going and then Then Bush says, how do we stop this thing? We
Zain
1:07:06
We can talk about a lot of elements of it, including that, including big tech sitting right behind the family. I mean, just the wildest stuff, so to speak. But Carter, we don't have time and it's your bedtime because that's a wrap on episode 1848D. What does a D stand for, Carter? Comes
Zain
1:07:23
Comes after C. That's right. Of the strategists. My name is Zane Vilge. With me as always, Corey Hogan, Stephen Carter. And we shall see you next time, maybe with a liberal candidate hosting the show. Who knows?