Transcript
Zain
0:01
This is a strategist episode 1848. My name is Zain Velji. With me as always, Stephen Carter and
Zain
0:07
and Corey Hogan. Guys, how are you?
Carter
0:10
Stephen Carter, live from Edmonton. Live from Edmonton? What am I doing in Edmonton?
Carter
0:15
No one cares. Yeah, no one cares.
Zain
0:17
cares. Yeah, no one cares. Yeah.
Zain
0:20
Key and Bixby. Were you, yeah, that's what I've heard. Hey, what are you, were you cutting the cord from teleprompters? Is that what was going on? Was that? Yeah,
Carter
0:27
Yeah, that's what I was busy doing. okay good cutting the cord for teleprompters i was like you know what this guy's too good to do this on a teleprompter he's got to do it from notes that's what i said read your french on the notes
Corey
0:39
yeah you were there for the mark carney launch i
Carter
0:42
i was there for the mark well i'm actually not here for the mark carney launch i'm here for another campaign but i happen to be here for the mark carney oh okay
Corey
0:49
okay well you know like just for listeners you were running crowd control for for the Mark Carney campaign.
Zain
0:53
Yeah, we could see her bald head on CBC. We did see it. In fairness. In fairness to me, too many brown people on the stage. Any response?
Zain
1:03
Not too many brown people on the
Carter
1:04
the stage? Not too many brown people on the stage. Just the right amount? Just the right number of brown people on the stage. Too
Zain
1:10
Too many brown people on the stage. If you haven't seen the announcement, go back and you'll be like, wow, that's too many.
Carter
1:15
It's no such thing as too many.
Zain
1:18
There is such a thing as too many. And the visual evidence of that that is YouTubing the Mark Carney campaign launch.
Carter
1:25
You know what? YouTube it, and let's see if we can get as many views on the launch as we got on the Jon Stewart Daily Show appearance.
Zain
1:32
Oh, I like this. I like this, Carter. Is this how you're disclosing that you're
Zain
1:37
you're officially on the campaign?
Carter
1:38
Well, I mean, officially is an interesting phrase, although I understand that I was outed as the campaign manager for the Carney campaign on QR770 this morning. So my mom called. So that tells you how important I am. My mother was
Carter
1:53
was like, hey, what the hell? And I had no idea I was the campaign manager. So big
Carter
1:58
pay raise, big pay raise. Looking forward to cashing those checks, campaign
Corey
2:04
manager checks. You know what I'm noticing? You're not currently denying that you're the campaign manager. So we're going to need you to say those words cleanly
Zain
2:09
for the audience. Please put it down. I am not the campaign manager. Then insert your title there on after crowd control, slides, banners, whatever it actually is. Head of banners or whatever, you know.
Carter
2:18
Brayden Cayley has the title of campaign manager. Interesting.
Zain
2:21
the title. Yes, he does. That almost makes it sound like... Oh
Corey
2:29
good. Do you want to be fired from this campaign, Carter? Are you
Corey
2:32
you going to get fired from a campaign you don't work on?
Carter
2:34
on? I know, right? I'm going to get fired from something that I'm volunteering on. What are they going to do once
Zain
2:38
once they lose their guy who organizes brown people on stage?
Zain
2:42
Listen, that was a lot of work. I could see it took a bit of work. I think it was a little bit too hands-on because we could see all this. So we could see this happening on the feed.
Carter
2:52
No, it was more than that. It was spectacular. The whole thing was spectacular.
Zain
2:58
Well, from what I understand, you're going to actually know Punjabi by the end of this campaign. It feels like you're going to be spending a lot of time in places with Sikh organizing.
Carter
3:07
Well, if I didn't pick it up in Surrey, I'm not going to pick it up anywhere. Oh, that's true.
Carter
3:12
I didn't pick it up there. I'm not going to pick it up. I
Corey
3:15
I just love this. so many new rich storylines from the strategist universe that get like expanded today this is yeah this
Carter
3:20
this is good so happy about this this is this was a big one this was uh this was fun that the carney campaign this was my daughter's first uh first foray i also saw her on tv campaigning it was very
Carter
3:31
yeah she so she showed up on tv i told her if she showed up on tv she had to buy drinks but
Carter
3:36
but she went out with me and i don't drink so there's
Zain
3:39
there's no so you bought drinks i
Carter
3:40
i bought i bought dinner yeah well
Zain
3:41
well that's good okay okay we'll get steven carter's on the road he also Also doesn't have much time because it's almost his bedtime. Corey, we're going to do this as a two-parter. We're going to spend 45 minutes right now. And you might be saying, well, are you going to put on a stopwatch? Say, no, I'm not. As soon as Stephen Carter fades and the answers don't make sense, we will stop. We're going to do the first 45 on Danielle Smith and the premiers. And we'll do the next 45 on Stephen Carter skating on ice around the Mark Carney launch. Oh, my God. oh
Zain
4:12
oh my god was that your reaction to how the launch went so
Zain
4:18
good i'm glad you
Zain
4:19
with that with that second uh part of it
Carter
4:20
it was it was amazing you should have been there no
Zain
4:23
no no i needed another
Carter
4:24
another guy to go up behind the stage you
Zain
4:26
you need another brown guy to go behind fantastic well um just make sure you bring back the sedatives i gave you um that you i assume gave to the candidate what
Zain
4:38
seen this yet like
Corey
4:38
like i have not seen this you are really created a picture for me this is exciting there's been
Carter
4:43
been two people that i've seen critiques from one zane velgey and one brian top those are the only two people i've seen critiques from now
Zain
4:53
not the zane velgey are
Corey
4:53
are you already in a campaign bubble is that what i'm hearing yeah
Carter
4:56
yeah that's basically it how
Zain
4:58
how you've only heard it from two people i like mark mark cardi a lot i think his name is mike cardi according to what city tv did uh in terms of Really?
Zain
5:07
Really? Did they blow it? No, no. They went around asking Edmontonians with a picture of Mark Carney's face if anyone knew who this was. And the closest they got was, I think that's Mike.
Zain
5:19
Do you know how I know that? It's because Mark Carney asked City TV to relay that anecdote about him during the Q&A. Were you not there? Did you get fired already? I
Zain
5:29
I don't think you have a job.
Carter
5:31
The Q&A I left. I had to go do my other campaign. This
Zain
5:34
This is like fucking Shutter Island. He thinks he's on this campaign. he's just
Corey
5:40
very good taking flight
Zain
5:41
flight to random places
Zain
5:44
could be living out 2013 I've written a whole document this podcast
Corey
5:49
podcast is actually how he's going to come to the realization at a certain point this is
Zain
5:54
supposed to be for tomorrow maybe
Carter
5:54
maybe I am campaign manager
Zain
5:59
definitely not entitled okay let's talk about Danielle Smith guys for our first segment our first segment Mrs. Smith goes to Panama Emma, guys, the first minister's meeting has happened. And it was interesting because going in, it was going to be telegraphed that this
Zain
6:15
this was going to be premiers only, that federal leadership was missing from this meeting. And yes, the prime minister convened the first minister's meeting. But at the end, the meeting ended with the prime minister in a press conference with a couple of his ministers, also the ambassador, all premiers, sans Daniel Smith, who did not show up. And I press conference i might be wrong about that but we'll i'll find that out while we uh while we discuss uh but all of them including eb uh except smith signing this statement the joint statement that that comes out of the meeting cory daniel smith is taking a lot of heat for for putting alberta first for not putting canada first she's taking that heat from justin trudeau sharply today less sharply yesterday but she also took that heat very diplomatically from scott moe from from Doug Ford, certainly. And she seems to be taking it from the commentary class, the political class across the country as well. Let's get into this, you know, without bearing the lead. Was what Danielle Smith did strategic from your perspective for the constituency that she's trying to represent Alberta?
Corey
7:25
I think it was strategic. It depends on what the goals of her strategy were. I would say that if the goals are what we would consider the conventional goals of a premier, which is supporting the economic growth and development of the country, or sorry, of the province over the long term within the country, then
Corey
7:40
then no, it was not strategic. And I ultimately worry that it's not just Danielle Smith, it's a lot of politicians in a lot of different contexts. But short term thinking does seem to be ruling the day. It does feel like the other premiers got there faster and said, No, no, we can't screw around with this United, United we stand, divided we fall, as Doug Ford said. And I mean, like just a cliche for a reason, like it's just absolutely accurate. But Danielle Smith wasn't willing to get there. And I do wonder how much of it actually is the consequence of her not being in the room. Like it's interesting, like chicken or egg, right? Did
Zain
8:15
Did she not want
Corey
8:16
want to be in the room?
Corey
8:17
Because this was her position. Did this end up being in her position because she wasn't in the room? So it created a weird dynamic. She was almost like a spectator,
Corey
8:23
spectator, the only Zoom participant. participant other premiers were apparently cracking jokes i i guess legault said at one point like is she calling in from mar-a-lago yeah you know i was picked up by a mic very good joke by the way right but um yeah yeah she decided not to sign it was wrapped in i think the grievance language that as albertans as canadians were pretty familiar with this idea that oh you're not being very nice to alberta right now i've got to protect our economic interests but the context context has changed and context is everything yes and the context of fighting with ottawa in normal times i think all the other provinces in this case as well absolutely i mean all the other provinces are very good at fighting with ottawa i mean we had scott moe he fights with ottawa all the bloody no
Zain
9:07
no no but i guess what i'm trying to say is that the consequence of fighting with ottawa and all the other provinces simultaneously well i
Corey
9:13
i don't even know if if that's that penny is dropped but i'll just say normally premiers they will fight but the rest of the premier said that we can't do that daniel smith decided that dynamic wasn't going to shift depending on the context reasonable
Corey
9:26
reasonable fear is that some of this is because of conversations she may have had in mar-a-lago obviously one of the things that is often leveled against daniel smith is she listens to the last person that she talked to the last
Corey
9:37
last person she talked to might have been kevin o'leary and
Corey
9:40
in this context right
Zain
9:40
right kevin o'leary by the way to be clear is like unabashedly
Zain
9:44
unabashedly an advocate for this economic union of the two countries passport currency etc just to add that context most
Corey
9:52
most certainly and so i mean do i think it was strategic if the goal is to weaken canada if the goal is to create conditions that might in the future cause us trouble then sure uh i don't actually believe that's daniel smith's goals i know some of you will disagree so
Corey
10:08
so i think it was accidental and i think it is a horrible tragic accident and i would also point out that one of of the things that daniel smith has always supposedly done well you know the the thing that people credit daniel smith with is she'll stand up you know she'll stand up to trudeau i think
Corey
10:23
think that she heard the wrong part of that that's my feeling my feeling is she heard the to trudeau part and not the stand-up part and the stand-up part's important and the context has changed and the opponent has changed and daniel smith has an opportunity still does
Corey
10:39
to stand up to the right
Zain
10:40
right of let's let's talk about that in a moment here around what she should do going forward carter strategic
Zain
10:46
strategic from daniel smith's perspective she's getting a ton of heat ton
Zain
10:50
ton of heat from the premiers ton of heat um
Zain
10:52
um she's the odd person out yeah
Carter
10:56
yeah i think this is one of those situations where uh you're trying to play chess but you get fixated on one of your pieces and you just keep moving the same piece back and forth perfect metaphor
Carter
11:05
metaphor that is what she's doing she's fixated on one piece and that one piece is i got a fight with justin trudeau and I have to protect the oil and gas industry, maybe if she's looking at two pieces. So I got to protect the oil and gas industry. Interesting, interesting. You're going to continue to focus on selling our product at a huge discount into a market that holds us captive. Interesting. I mean, if you really wanted to protect the oil and gas industry, there's a number of different things you could do. But I don't think that just capitulating to Donald Trump is necessarily in our long-term best interest. Um, the oil and gas industry, uh, you know, if the tariff is applied, the oil and gas industry may do worse. It may not be doing as, as badly, but there's, as we talked about in the last episode, there's a huge, uh, amount of turnover and cost to turning over from the heavy oil that comes out of Alberta. So I think that this in a short term, this
Carter
12:02
this could work out very well, but she doesn't seem to see the long picture either. And that is the very definition of strategy strategy is about seeing the multiple moves on the board and seeing how they play out in the long term and a i'll
Carter
12:16
i'll tell you something you you want to you want to end tariffs really quickly throw tariffs on alberta gas and alberta oil if
Carter
12:24
if you throw tariffs on alberta gas and alberta oil the americans are going to feel that tomorrow and
Carter
12:29
and they're going to feel it in such a nasty way that they're going to stand up and say we can't have any more of these tariffs but she doesn't have the ability to see beyond the immediate play. So by definition, she can't be strategic.
Zain
12:42
So Corey, there's a couple of threads here. Let me pick up on one before we get to if the charges of her being un-Canadian and those sort of... The charges that go beyond this is a strategic mistake or blunder and put her into a very narrow category that might be quite damning. Let's talk about that in a second. Before we get there, do you feel like her dusting off an old script, which this is, and putting it out to Albertans will work, in the sense that will she feel political pain from this here? I'm curious about that from your perspective, because, you know, there's all this other noise about what this means to the national conversation, etc. And Doug Ford made a good point, like, this is like me giving up the auto sector and saying, yeah, I could do this carve out for the auto sector, but I'm not, because Canada comes first, right? So for
Zain
13:29
for her to dust off a script that many of us are used to, the ear is very used to this sort of rhetoric. Do you think Albertans will care of context and will care of gravity of situation and ultimately factor that in or not and say, you know what? Yeah, she's actually standing up for us. This makes a ton of sense and get a bump here.
Corey
13:52
Well, I think it's going to be a very mixed response. My sense is that if you are a supporter of the UCP, you've certainly heard enough voices in the UCP. They are hanging together very well on this particular issue, that probably the majority of UCP supporters will think this is an okay idea. My gut says, and I'm sure we'll see polling eventually, it's going to be decidedly more mixed amongst Albertans broadly. My guess is more Albertans opposed than in favor of Alberta's actions, but could very easily be on the other side of that, but close. That's my feeling, just based on conversations I've had today, based on some chatter I've had about the various inputs that are available to people here. I think that we are still in those forming times and that a really strong argument one way or the other could really sway Albertans who are just looking at this and saying, holy fuck, what the hell is happening? God, I hate Trump. Well, I don't really like Trudeau either. I don't know whose side I'm on. And so what matters the most in the next couple of days in terms of what the outcome with Albertans will be are the voices that come forward. So put a pin in that because I think it's really important that Albertans hear the contrary voice from albertans articulated by albertans as to why this would be bad for them here but you know i do want to say one of the reasons why albertans will feel different about this inherently than the auto industry okay like i don't want to i don't want to be simple about it obviously a deeply integrated auto industry where for a car to be built it might cross the border or the various parts multiple times deeply integrated that's
Corey
15:21
that's tough to uncouple doug ford's not wrong in that that sense but cars can go to different markets we can put them on ships we can send them somewhere the reality of alberta's oil infrastructure is that alberta's oil infrastructure basically goes to one place
Corey
15:35
goes to one 90
Zain
15:36
90 some odd percent it's
Corey
15:37
it's the united states of america and the challenge is there's that's not changing anytime soon that's years and years and years if you want to change that and so there there is as is often the case here there's a kernel there's something at the the center that validates what is an unjustifiable overall position and and that is that it's not like cars you know you do this to oil there's no other market for the oil and by the way anybody who's thinking otherwise there's not a giant like big tap in hardesty alberta that turns off oil to the united states you turn off oil there there it will take months it is very complicated is a a very difficult thing to do you've got to reduce the amount of oil you're flowing because there's always more oil coming we've got nowhere to put it at a certain point there are real challenges but there are real challenges on the u.s side too and as steven talked about they're desperate for the oil and that is the game of chicken that we have to end up playing as a country moving forward but
Corey
16:34
but we really cut ourselves off at the knees the minute we say no we're not even going to do that
Zain
16:39
dusting off an old script will albertans care of context in terms of of smiths
Zain
16:44
smiths selling this to to alberns well
Carter
16:46
well i think the uh the the waking up of the voices is certainly a really good point i mean somehow nancy came out of his uh his winter doldrums to actually begin to and
Carter
16:57
and and address the issue from fort mcmurray i might add so
Carter
17:00
so that is a uh that's a big step forward we finally got an opposition voice uh i hope that we start to see other you know prominent thinker voices beyond uh certain podcasts like ours that you know really shape the political discourse and the uh and the overall commentary um but i suspect that we'll start to see more and more like right now it's it's really hard to listen to watch the or to read the mainstream media the david staples and the rick bell of rick bells of the world who are carrying water on this yeah
Zain
17:29
yeah calling her iron lady and like defiant and alberta first and all i'm just giving yeah
Carter
17:34
yeah i mean mean it's just it it's just it's an impossible read and that's that's saying something because oftentimes they're an impossible read but this is this is particularly bad i i don't understand you know rick bell's a populist rick bell's a guy who's supposed to be reflecting the the
Carter
17:49
the the desires of the everyday person and i think that they've just misread this one because
Carter
17:53
because i think the average person is not going to be responding particularly well to danielle smith's positions uh not that it matters anymore but on twitter you know the the word trader trended. And it was trending because they were calling her a trader, not a trader, you know, not saying that she wasn't, she was. And that's the context now that people are looking at this in, is that Danielle Smith has been a trader to Canada. And I think that that's how this is going to play in the long term. That's
Zain
18:22
That's such a harsh brand. But it, you know, it's interesting. That's where the conversation is going. Corey, you wanted to jump in on something before i go there whether you know this beyond a strategic blunder and and let's talk about the canadian frame well and
Corey
18:34
and what do what do albertans exactly right so let's talk about what we actually know which is not much i'm sure they'll be polling in the coming days i guarantee you the framing of the question order effect are going to be significant considerations there in terms of what information people have when they're processing that so everybody who's listening to this who's in a position to interpret those things and make comment on those things i would would encourage you to ask some fundamental questions who
Corey
18:56
who did you ask when did you ask and what order do you ask let's try to understand that we often talk beware of novel concepts right we are in the novel phase right now but what we do actually know we've now seen both lege and angus reed go out and poll on the question of america and you know taking over camp basically it's not this it's a different issue but i think we could agree that they're somewhat adjacent they're
Carter
19:18
they're they're tied together and
Corey
19:20
what we do see is we see uh lege's numbers confirmed by angus reeds angus reed asked an awful lot more hypotheticals and pushing further somewhere
Corey
19:30
somewhere between around nine and ten canadians say no i don't want to be part of the united states one in ten says yes i do want to be part of the united states within that the the group's most enthusiastic about joining the united states push you to about 20 that is actually alberta but that is still an aggressively It's a progressively minority position. That's still an
Corey
19:49
80-20 issue in terms of like being there for Canada, right? So the other thing we do know is that conservatives are more likely to support that. You've got to think about it in terms of both Danielle Smith being the Alberta premier and hearing more from Alberta voices, of course, and also a conservative. These
Corey
20:09
These two don't stack, like they're measuring the same thing. It's about 20% of Alberta, right? right? But you have to imagine that there are quite a few conservative voices who are pretty sympathetic to that particular view. And that's going to be feeding some of that.
Corey
20:22
We do know from the Angus Reid poll, and last thing I want to throw on here is that when you start throwing things like, well, what if America gave you $60,000? What if America gave you $100,000? What if you lost your job? Would you then be willing to reconsider? Canadians say, no, fuck you. No, I'm not willing to reconsider. I guess I just lost my job. I guess I'm still still strongly opposed and i lost my job and then the softening of that 90 number is not as significant as you might yeah and
Corey
20:49
the reason that matters is while we're talking about a different issue it is an adjacent issue and if people feel assaulted by the united states the limited polling we do have suggests that there will be a there will be a reflex there'll be like a fuck you reflex not a let's capitulate reflex so that's the context in which daniel smith has made this Obviously, we'll get data that's about this specific decision in the days and weeks to come. But there is reason to believe that most Albertans will not react positively to this, all
Corey
21:21
all other things being equal.
Zain
21:22
equal. Corey, let's talk about that harsh charge against Smith. It may not be harsh, because I want to use another C word, not capitulate, compromised. Oh,
Carter
21:33
Oh, I thought you
Carter
21:34
were going to go a little bit
Zain
21:34
bit more direct. I know exactly what I was doing there. I know exactly what I was doing. It's a high wire at this show for me. Don't worry about it. The C word is compromised, and frankly, Canadian. Those two are really interesting, because there's folks saying that this is an anti-Canadian move by Smith, that like this is a brand that should be applied to her the sovereignty act is being dredged up other conservatives were on the other side of the issue ford and mo are two on the press conference side but kenny and harper are are others that that kind of um one would argue are on the other side of daniel smith on this uh particular stance
Corey
22:07
stance kenny explicitly and i don't know if we know exactly where stephen harper is on this issue but kenny has said let's not take things off the right
Zain
22:14
right right and and so you know being on the other side of it and
Zain
22:17
and then there's this other narrative that's like, well, what did she get from Trump?
Zain
22:21
Or what was that conversation about in order for her to do something like this on the heels of that? And that one is starting to gain a bit of steam as well. So talk to me about beyond a strategic blunder, what trouble and what world of hurt could Danielle Smith be in here if some of these brands start having, I'm not even saying longevity, but start bearing some political fruit or start bearing some level of like, oh, that makes sense from people well let
Carter
22:48
let me jump in yeah right you remember louis real i do
Zain
22:51
do one of my favorite louis
Carter
22:52
louis after ck but one of my
Carter
22:54
yeah louis real same thing i
Zain
22:57
what i said about louis ck there okay just just keep going yeah okay
Carter
23:02
no that was my whole that was a bit that was funny no we laughed i'm tired all
Corey
23:08
all right we said 45 minutes
Carter
23:10
20 yeah we're gonna keep going we're gonna keep going we're gonna go you got nothing
Zain
23:13
nothing at the at the premiere of alberta That you do not like, Carter, being called un-Canadian and potentially compromised? What do
Zain
23:22
do you have? What are
Zain
23:23
are your thoughts when I throw that? This is an insane timeline we're living in, just throwing that out. But
Carter
23:27
But this goes right back to Corey's very first point. Which is? Very first point, and that was that it's whoever she spoke to last whose views that she reflects. And she knows this about herself. Or is that too charitable? No, but she knows that about herself. and she chooses to surround herself with people who provide her with insane points of view. That almost
Carter
23:48
she's got no conviction.
Carter
23:49
Absolutely she has no conviction. She just wants to be premier, and she wants to be premier of a rich province, not a poor province. And she can see that if you lose oil, we become a poor province very quickly. She's not wrong. If this thing led, if we had a 15% tariff and it lasted quite some time. You mean like an export tax on our oil? yeah we would be screwed as
Carter
24:13
as a province we would be running you know deficits which she hates she hates deficits because the people around her have told her that deficits are very bad and she doesn't like not having royalties to spend because spending money is very good the people around her have told her and you know these are the things that is that she wants to have and wants to be able to do um and she doesn't want to raise taxes because obviously the people around her have told her that that's fatal for provincial premiers. So I think that Danielle Smith is really between a rock and a hard place. The compromise doesn't come from Donald Trump, you know, wrapping her arm around her and wrapping her an American flag and saying, you'll be the governor of our 51st state, you know, Danielle. It's nothing like that. The compromise comes from her. It
Zain
25:00
comes from her. Okay, let me ask this. Can I ask this slightly differently to you, Corey? Let me ask you to be one of Daniel Smith's advisors, heading into that meeting, this seems like a decision that was already made.
Zain
25:11
Yeah. Right? Seems like a decision already made. The communication was largely already there on the back end, the justification of not signing on to any joint communique. How would you have done it if you were her? Or what would you have suggested she had done differently that may not have landed her in this situation of being considered un-Canadian in that sense?
Corey
25:31
Okay, well, there's two very obvious things here. One is I would not have have gone to mar-a-lago right you immediately are leading into questions of what did you get for betraying your country compromise
Zain
25:40
compromise right question that i'm asking
Zain
25:41
you know the compromise
Corey
25:41
compromise question but it becomes almost hey you know i
Corey
25:45
i don't know like what was their conversation with kevin o'leary what was their conversation with donald trump if you are ultimately going to end up in the position like that you simply cannot look like you are perhaps benefiting through some sort of back deal so i would have not done that meeting it's that step one like if i was planning to do this and i knew this before this conference i would not have gone to mar-a-lago you could maybe go to mar-a-lago after you can't go before because it does start to create a bit of a quid pro quo sense the second thing i would have done is show up in the fucking room right yeah i would have i would have no matter how painful no matter how annoying i would have been in the room so that you've avoided that kind of critique of you that you're sitting in panama by the way i know i'm gonna yeah another target of donald trump's i mean it's just it's pretty wild it's pretty rich and i i would have tried to look as reasonable as possible i would have gone to that press conference at the end i would have said i just i cannot like as uncomfortable as it would be i would stand there and i would say i love this country this is the wrong thing this is rushed we can't do this if i was going to push forward on this particular strategy now i wouldn't have pushed forward on this strategy personally but you asked me how i yeah this strategy if the decision was made and she had decided this is what i want to do how would you i'll also tell tell you this if she was in the room it's more likely to me that scott moe doesn't sign that it's more likely to me that she manages to find at least one ally that they can sort of sit out and say no we're not willing to sign this particular do you feel like she wanted to go at it alone
Zain
27:12
alone in order to have headlines about her and and like like do you feel like they almost were like we want to go out on this alone to be the sole defenders of industry and they may not not have seen what the last 70, I shouldn't say 70, 36 hours or 24 hours brought their way. But is there a part of you that felt like maybe she wanted to be the singular defender of something?
Zain
27:36
Well, to what end? Yeah,
Carter
27:37
Yeah, like you're out on an island, you're all by yourself. There's no real advantage to that. Everybody knows where to point the finger. Other
Zain
27:44
Other than, yeah, other than to the United States where they could say, look at that lady again, right? We met her last week and look look at her this week and and i'm just wondering if that's if adding another signatory to your cause dilutes your brand presence to what maga believes about you that sounds insane but actually after visiting mar-a-lago it doesn't i don't think it is insane i
Corey
28:05
i i mean i think oh boy well look at this i mean even if you were to assume that her strategy was to weaken canada in some way which i'm not i just want to be we're
Zain
28:14
we're not making that
Corey
28:14
that charge yet even
Corey
28:15
even aren't we i'm not not making that charge we're not making that charge
Zain
28:19
charge one of the
Corey
28:20
the three of us are not making that
Corey
28:22
even if you assumed that was her strategy you would want scott moe on side like there's there's no benefit right there's
Zain
28:28
there's no you're right yeah
Corey
28:30
yeah well there's no benefit in going alone as a like if you want to create chaos and discord within the canadian confederation
Corey
28:36
have two why would you not have two like what's the benefit of one over two if you're donald trump so even if you thought that was her strategy i don't know if that really tracks for me right I get the sense, I can understand her wanting to be a leader and saying, like, I'm the tough one, right? That whole Iron Lady thing that Rick, by the way, Rick Bell, you know, when Margaret Thatcher was, you know, getting that moniker, it wasn't because she gave away the fucking Falkland Islands, right? She didn't
Carter
29:04
didn't fly to Argentina and, you know, suck up to the president.
Zain
29:07
Yeah. You think if she did, you think
Zain
29:09
think Meryl Streep would have played her? No.
Zain
29:13
Meryl's always right. She's awesome.
Corey
29:16
agree that she is pretty good but
Zain
29:18
you're saying meryl's only pretty good am
Zain
29:22
i gonna get name one say she's a little over name one are you
Carter
29:25
you fucking name one
Zain
29:28
don't know the range the range is incredible the range the range is the range well
Corey
29:31
i thought the range was the name of a movie that flopped so and the range is incredible
Zain
29:37
this is actually this is actually dispiriting now this is you've taken this con now now your Your morale is low. This is how I felt after... Okay, I'm not going to say it.
Corey
29:44
If she wanted to be just showing that she was tough, though, and she wanted to be like, I can go it alone,
Zain
29:54
Because she's going to the inauguration on Monday and she wants to be known as something to these people? That's not insane to me.
Zain
30:03
When you say, oh, God, do you mean like, I could have a point?
Carter
30:07
Oh, God, I've forgotten she was going to the inauguration.
Zain
30:11
It was a little bit of that, actually. There you go. She's going to the inauguration on Monday. Yeah. God bless Elvis. Super. Carter, if you were trying to sell this on behalf of Daniel Smith, what would you do? Like, I think the analysis is fun, but I think the strategy is more, are uniquely our lane in this regard. So talk to me about this. What would you have done to help her out, ease the pain, get the same message across? How would you have done it?
Carter
30:35
You know what? But as much as we often defend politicians for going on vacation and defend politicians for taking time for themselves. Because the job is impossible. The job's impossible. You never get any time off. You're always on. This isn't the time to be away. This is the time that this family vacation had to blow up. And she needs to be back in Calgary and Edmonton. Because she has a way of words. uh she simplifies the concepts down to individual blocks like you know toddlers building toy castles with their blocks that type of thing she builds it for albertans and albertans buy it uh a lock stock barrel every time um because it has the word barrel in it and they think oh that's how we sell oil so you know it's a uh it's
Carter
31:27
it's a remarkable thing um how how she's able to convince us that she's in the right even when she's doing things that are terribly wrong so
Carter
31:35
so i i think that if she's just here she's able to sell this her not being here is the fatal flaw of uh of this strategy cory
Zain
31:44
cory i'm going to remove the guardrails for you um you're still helping smith you're
Zain
31:49
you're cleaning this up now you're seeing what the last 36 hours have brought you and you're like fuck this how am i making it right so
Zain
31:56
so how am i backing away from this particular position
Zain
31:59
position if that's what the strategy requires i'm giving you a
Zain
32:02
wide berth here right
Corey
32:03
right well i think that what you're doing in that case is you're finding an excuse to agree and if you are justin trudeau and you have look
Corey
32:12
look i know you said no more analysis but can i just say like justin trudeau going after daniel smith today uh for not putting country first after yeah
Corey
32:21
sharper not doing the election sharper
Zain
32:23
well but okay but like
Corey
32:24
maybe maybe not you man maybe maybe someone else can carry that conversation like you're the guy who just gave us the liberal leadership race for the next couple of months well we're dealing with all of this shit yeah
Corey
32:34
because you refuse to step down carter
Zain
32:36
carter that's a race that's happening now that you're on is
Carter
32:38
is that really did that happen yeah yeah you're doing
Carter
32:43
oh my god well
Zain
32:45
also i think just more likely
Corey
32:45
likely to set off albert yeah not constructive but if you want to be constructive justin trudeau what you would do is you would find a way that she can essentially declare victory without fundamentally changing it where it's like, okay, we've agreed that in the scenario where we do this, Alberta will be getting compensated in this way or something like this, and we're all going to be there as a nation, and they accept it. You've got to help her find a victory in this, when she is so far out on a ledge. People are calling her a traitor. People are calling her a quizling. This is not the kind of thing where you can just go the next day and say, oh, actually, you know what? I'm not. Actually, it's all good. We're all on
Corey
33:21
She's so on a ledge, Zane. You've got to help her off that ledge.
Zain
33:24
ledge. So Team Canada-wise, I get what you're saying. And Carter, I want you to take the raw politics. Be ruthless if you need to. Is it helpful for the prime minister and the premiers to have Danielle Smith floating on an island by herself, doubling and tripling down, and for them to show unity? When there's always someone who's an outlier, do they not always politically look better? Doesn't Scott Moe get a bit of a bump by having Danielle Smith as a foil versus all of them just coming together and looking standard issue, we're all together, Team Canada, rah, rah, rah? Like, talk to me about the politics of offering that off-ramp to her. Do you actually want her to be on the same boat as you? Are you actually happy because she provides a very convenient foil of like, I could have been that fucking lady, but you're lucky you have me?
Carter
34:08
No, I mean, I think this is one of those times when you have to actually say what's good for the country is more important than what might be good politically. I told you to be ruthless and
Zain
34:16
and be political on this.
Carter
34:18
I am being ruthless and political. critical what i'm what i'm telling you is that there is no right answer of saying well you know we're just going to leave her on the raft
Zain
34:26
raft somewhere else yeah you
Carter
34:27
you know justin trudeau frankly isn't going to need the points in 38 days or whatever the hell the number of days doug ford might intend
Carter
34:34
doug ford i'll tell you doug ford's the one who's smiling all the way to the piggy bank this is fantastic for doug ford this
Zain
34:41
what how it's going for him regardless of smith situation or smith being a foil to canada
Carter
34:46
canada showing showing that you can disagree with someone and still put the country first you know this is fantastic it's manna from heaven for doug ford and daniel smith is just giving it to him he's but instead of of uh like i want to answer the question that you asked cory about how do you get how do you get um how do you get off of this if you're daniel smith you know cory immediately said you got if you're the prime minister you throw her a rope you find a way to get her off the ledge that's that's right but what What does Danielle Smith do? If I'm Danielle Smith, I find a way to stand up, not at the inauguration, but when I'm in Washington, D.C., find a Canadian reporter and actually say something along the lines of Alberta has to stand up and we have to stand with Canada on this tariff. We're not prepared to do it the exact same way, but we are prepared to stand up for Canada.
Zain
35:42
A Canadian reporter, you mean like for a Canadian outlet?
Carter
35:45
Yeah, like the Globe and Mail must have someone. went down so
Zain
35:46
so not our buddy we shouldn't just go reach out to josh wingrove and be like josh what's up hey
Carter
35:50
hey josh what's up on me bloomberg now you
Corey
35:53
you do you do big shit now josh you uh yeah yeah
Corey
35:55
probably got better people to interview but maybe do us a solid get us get
Corey
35:59
get us one with danielle so
Carter
36:00
so remember when he was chasing the guy with the gun down the hallway i got i got i got i got i got
Zain
36:04
got that was nuts um shout out to our josh wingrove um alberton
Corey
36:12
yeah no i can i I can remember talking to him about the Alberta Liberal Party. Man, that's amazing. Man,
Corey
36:17
he's doing a lot better now. Yeah,
Zain
36:19
and the three of us are still here.
Zain
36:22
Fucking hammering out content for
Zain
36:24
for these fucking losers. Carter thinks he's on a campaign. I don't
Carter
36:27
don't know how much longer I'm here, brother. I don't know how much
Zain
36:29
much longer I'm here. Okay, I told you 45 minutes. Let me do the next two things in nine. How about I phrase it this way? Corey, I'll start with you.
Zain
36:37
When the First Minister's meeting ended, who
Zain
36:40
who was the biggest winner? winner.
Zain
36:44
Justin Trudeau, who was going to be iced out of the press conference, but in fact, got to head up that press conference, or
Zain
36:49
or Canadians, because the vast majority of their divided, polarized politics came together and said, we're on the same page here. So who was the biggest winner for you? Was it Ford, Trudeau, or Canadians?
Corey
37:03
You know, it's tough not to pick Canadians at that moment. But that feels like the hallmark answer. So I'm going to say Doug Ford. Doug Ford was the biggest. You like that? winner and here's why here's
Corey
37:12
here's why um can't
Corey
37:15
can't really say that it's justin trudeau he can't win his game is over like he's the guy who's walked onto the ice and you're like my man you're not you're not a player anymore yeah right we traded
Zain
37:25
traded you last that's
Corey
37:26
yeah we traded you last week you're out of here no it's over for him like he can't win anymore sure his win-loss record is now frozen you know there's no way to win i mean his loss record is not he'll find a way but i i think my point
Corey
37:38
point stands like he can't be the winner he's no longer prime minister right it's not canadians because daniel smith opposed it and in fact what should have been the headline of united front became daniel smith stands alone right that was the major thrust of all of the stories that's the major thrust of the stories as it's carried in the united states i'm sure so that's a real challenge for us we have shown a fundamental weakness at a time when weakness could be economically fatal But
Corey
38:07
Doug Ford actually got the opportunity to stand up and say, I'm putting Canada first. I don't know about that, Danielle Smith, but I'm going to put Canada first, right? He looked like a real fucking leader. He stood up against another conservative, and he's got an election coming. So his needs are more easily filled by that press conference than Canadians' needs. And Justin Trudeau is, you know, unfortunately irrelevant now, unfortunately for him. I'll
Zain
38:30
I'll get back to Doug Ford in a second. I'll spend a few minutes on him. Carter, I'll give you the same shake. We might spend it right now if he's your answer.
Carter
38:37
you know, Corey's usual thinking at a unidimensional level. I'm thinking much broader, much broader than this. And I think the answer is actually Mark Carney, Christia Freeland, and Nahed Nenshi are the winners. Nenshi got woken from his slumber and has come out of hibernation and now has an enemy again. And the same is true for Christia Freeland and Mark Carney. They are both going to rail and and have another opposition member. They have Pierre Polyev and they now get to equate Pierre Polyev to Daniel Smith. And that is a fantastic way for them to start to to undercut and cut away from the power that represents the conservative movement right now that is, you know, polling light years ahead of the Liberal Party. Corey,
Zain
39:24
Corey, I'm going to Pierre. If your comments are about that, hold on for me. Is that where you wanted to go? They were. Okay, so here we go. Let's talk about Pierre. Two things, Carter. Number one, three times today he's asked if he agrees with the Smith no-export tariffs on oil and gas. Three times he tries to skate. Last time the CP asks him, he ultimately says, well, he catches them on a technicality, doesn't answer the question, skates away, does not answer it.
Zain
39:51
How much trouble is Pierre Polyev on this particular file? Take a shot at that.
Carter
39:56
I mean, it's not carbon tax level, but it's a pretty big problem for him. And
Zain
40:01
And I guess the second part, what would you do if you're him? Let me add that to the mix.
Carter
40:05
You know what I would do? I'd become Captain Canada. If
Carter
40:07
If I was Pierre Polyev right now, I'd wrap myself in the flag and say, and not say that Justin Trudeau has stumbled upon the the right answer but even a broken clock is right twice a day you know like you you just have to um you have to wrap yourself in in this particular flag and say you know what sometimes politics is about is smaller than patriotism sometimes we have to put the country's needs first and i'm really pleased to see justin trudeau doing that we disagree on just about everything else but on this one piece i actually am very proud uh of the work that's being done by uh by the premiers and the prime minister.
Zain
40:46
is he in a world of hurt if he can't make up his mind on this particular question? And how would you advise him on how to answer it?
Corey
40:54
I mean, make up your mind, there is only one answer, and I do not know what he's doing. It does seem to me that he has the same disease as Daniel Smith on this, which is, hey, you know, I fight the liberals, I fight Trudeau, and so I got to fight the liberals and I got to fight Trudeau. But there is only one answer are here and if you even just want to get down to some pretty basic electoral math you are going to win every seat in alberta you are going to win every seat in alberta even
Zain
41:17
even if you take the stance that's right i agree with you
Corey
41:19
you will jeopardize seats everywhere if it looks like you're standing with alberta like we talked about it what's it look like the public opinion in alberta and i was like i don't know i think it's going to be opposed but you know the conservatives there
Corey
41:31
fuck that outside of alberta this is not a tough question yeah
Corey
41:35
and if it looks like you're were equivocating and it looks like you're maybe standing with uh this is how you blow a 25 point lead this is how you fuck up an unfuckable election by doing things like this by hesitating on canada there
Corey
41:48
there is only one fucking answer and the longer you wait to give it the worse you look you should have given it today there is only one answer and by the way it's just a couple of pollsters right now but we're already apparently seeing a tightening of the polls and by tightening I mean, instead of a 25, 29
Corey
42:05
point lead, it's now a 20 point lead. But that's pretty quick. And if you do not figure out that you've got to neutralize this issue by being the toughest person in the room, you are going to
Zain
42:16
to lose this election. Well, let's talk about neutralizing. Carter, I'm going to try to stick to time. Carbon tax election may not be the brand of this election. So
Zain
42:24
Jagmeet Singh may have missed out on a shot, Pierre Polyev, and I'm not saying he's going to lose this election, may have missed out on the ballot box question of this election. Perhaps.
Zain
42:34
Perhaps. Especially with what we're hearing with Carney today saying, I'll come out with a comprehensive plan, all but indicating I'll undercut it, and Freeland doing the same for her announcement this weekend. So liberals might kill it before Pierre Polyev gets to have an election. The carbon tax, that is, before... Tax was axed. Yeah, yeah. It's over. So how much... You've got two potential winners. How much of
Zain
42:51
of an issue is that for Pierre Polyev? He's got a host of other ballot box questions to choose from. But how much of an issue, how worried are you, if you're Jenny Byrne right now, around your pivot? And you might say not at all. You might say quite a bit. That's why I ask you the questions and don't answer them myself. I
Carter
43:07
I think that it's a massive problem. I think that, you know, you're losing you're losing Captain Canada. You know, the guy who is fighting for Canada, that's going away. You're losing the carbon tax. You're facing new and exciting potential opposition. And you're you're you're going to be struggling in the polls. And I don't mean struggling in the polls like you're going to be losing necessarily the election. But this vote is not efficient. We've we've covered this before. You win all your seats in Alberta, but with 65 percent. And, you know, that doesn't help because that's part of that 25 point lead is in Alberta. You've got 65, 70 percent. It is difficult for the conservatives to make an efficient vote. The liberal vote is very efficient. Corey has talked eloquently about how it might be too efficient where they dropped precipitously. but it doesn't it also means that they can technically lose the election on popular vote
Carter
44:11
but hold the numbers as
Zain
44:13
as i believe they have the last at least last two yeah i was gonna say last two definitely last one so
Carter
44:17
so you could be down by eight points let's say eight i'm picking eight relatively randomly yeah
Carter
44:23
you could be down by eight points and hold the conservatives to a minority and
Carter
44:27
and that's well within the realm of possibility when you're You're looking at a Bloc Québécois that is strengthening and a Liberal Party that remains in the game. So in
Carter
44:38
in two years, you know, this whole thing is totally different if it's a minority government that Pierre Polyev gets. Because it turns out, I'm going to shock you guys, Pierre Polyev is not a particularly likable person.
Carter
44:52
And that matters. It
Corey
44:55
I mean, there's just another reality. Like, where the fuck are the votes going to go? Like any party that's showing any signs of life, you
Corey
45:02
you know, has already made their case known on this. So I don't know what, I don't, I understand the internal tensions it would create. I understand that there'd be a lot of people in Alberta who will be angry at him for that stance. But, you know, okay.
Corey
45:16
What does that mean to me when I'm considering the broader electoral math here? Right? Yeah.
Zain
45:21
Yeah. So, Corey, from your perspective, though, how
Zain
45:24
how much of an issue is the carbon tax election not on the table for Pierre Poliev?
Corey
45:30
I don't think it needs to be a big issue, but
Corey
45:32
but he's going to go through the mourning process. He's going to try to make it a carbon tax issue for
Corey
45:38
for longer. But it's not the only thing that Canadians are frustrated about right now. yeah
Corey
45:43
and i do think he's still got a a lot of runway on housing frankly the
Corey
45:49
way he screws this up is by failing to neutralize this team canada stuff by being on team canada do you feel like all the other stuff takes a back seat and this is an election about how to deal with the trump administration only
Corey
46:01
only if he lets it but but you know and you don't think that's
Zain
46:05
that's an advantageous question for him even if he were to
Zain
46:07
to make the right move i think it's a terrible terrible question for He gets
Carter
46:10
gets all the negative comparisons, none of the positive. You don't
Zain
46:12
don't think the conservative brethren aspect of that applies well to him at all? The fact that there's a like-mindedness?
Corey
46:21
I think it was a not great question for him, and it became a terrible question the minute Daniel Smith did what she did.
Corey
46:27
That's what I'd say. At this point, there is now an open conversation in this country about why is it that conservatives tend to support this track more than every other party. Like the polling is really interesting, right? It shows, we talk about 10% support across Canada for joining the United States. Again, adjacent issue, but I think a related issue.
Corey
46:49
It's 3% in the Liberals, it's 1% in the NDP, and it's 20% in the Conservatives. And people are starting to take note of that. And they're starting to say, what the fuck is this then? What's going on? And the more that they're talking about this, especially with what Daniel Smith's doing out there,
Corey
47:05
the worse it is. Kill the issue. Kill the issue by being on Team Canada, being very forceful. Say, well, I agree with Doug Ford, and I really appreciate how Doug Ford brought the country together on this one. I really like how Scott Moe stood up for it. And you know, I stand up for it too. And some things are beyond politics. And you know what? He's fucking going. So show a certain amount of magnanimity and say, and I'd like to thank the Prime Minister for his work on this too. This is obviously, this is beyond politics. Show you're a statesman. This
Carter
47:33
This has been a great summary of what I said earlier. Thank you, Corey. Hey,
Zain
47:38
Hey, Carter, last question. An aside that we've discussed already. How pissed would you be if you're like Ontario Liberals, Ontario New Democrats, seeing Doug Ford being celebrated by the rest of the country, the other premiers, Wab Kanu being like, Doug, you're doing a hell of a job, all these sort of things. I mean, he's killing it in the moment. I think we've been having a text discussion about this being like yeah like things that doug ford has done that are like like
Zain
48:03
like crazy right like all seem to be washed away with his performance over the course of the last yeah you remember all that green belt that's what i was referring to right green belt privatized like sort of highways like a bunch of stuff bike
Zain
48:18
lanes like bunch of craziness about bike lanes a month ago carter where would
Zain
48:22
would you be and how would you be thinking about your upcoming election that That Ford will trigger if you're the Ontario NDP or the Ontario Liberals. And I'm clumping them together because they're both getting fucked over by this a bit.
Carter
48:37
could have been a contender. I mean, if the question had been different, the timing had been different, maybe they could have participated. But unfortunately, it looks like that opportunity to participate is going to be taken away from them. And, you know, Doug Ford is a better politician than I think any of us have given him credit for. Corey,
Corey
48:59
think we've given Doug Ford a lot of credit, actually.
Corey
49:02
actually. You're not giving us enough credit, Stephen. I think even during the elections, he knows how to do politics, and he's really showing that right now. And ultimately, even if you want to be cynical about it, he's
Corey
49:11
he's the same kind of elbows up that Donald Trump is with more of a folksy demeanor. And he knows how to shove an elbow in your face. And that's really, I think, advantageous at a moment like this. Corey, as I complete the
Zain
49:23
the potpourri, the hodgepodge of questions, I brought up the Ontario NDP. Let me bring up the provincial NDP. I told you I'd end up here, but fuck if... Carter's still killing it. Carter's
Carter
49:32
Carter's answer... It's 45 minutes. Carter's answers are... 45 minutes was five minutes ago. It's fine. You want to give
Carter
49:40
I don't ever worry about that. I
Zain
49:41
I think this will wake you up right away, Carter. Here's a question. What should Nahid Nenshi do? Are you awake? I have the smelling salts kicked in. Stephen Carter, are you ready to provide advice to our friend Nahid Nenshi, who you said has made a video, was on television talking about this, punching through a bit on this particular matter of Danielle Smith? What's his track here? And how does he maximize the political pain? But how does he maximize the Team Canada approach emanating from Alberta, at least with his voice?
Carter
50:15
he needs to articulate a full vision of what it is that the alberta position should be the alberta position doesn't need to be full acquiescence but it needs to be some sort of uh model and he needs to put to you know a model of how the the uh we're going to weather the tariffs um and i think that there's a there's there's answers out there to how we can where whether these whether these tariffs and he needs to articulate those answers and then he needs to be on this issue every fucking day when
Carter
50:50
when she's away when she's back every day every if she shows up somewhere he's got to be trailing right behind her telling
Carter
50:57
telling everybody how wrong she is about this particular issue he cannot let it go especially if justin trudeau throws her a rope uh while while Oh, she's now standing on the ledge.
Zain
51:08
Corey, any thoughts on your end around, excuse me, what the opposition NDP need to think about here?
Corey
51:16
Yeah, he needs to be able to go forward and make a case on relatively narrow grounds, but moral high grounds, right? The thing that I think a lot of us want him to say is something along the lines of, hey, being a country means we all work together, right? And as Albertans, we've benefited from uneven distribution of oil in good times, and we've got responsibilities in bad times. We hang together, we're a country. That's what a lot of us want to hear, but I think that opens you to a couple of unnecessary critiques here. And so there's actually a more absolutist position you can take as Nahed Nenshi, right? My position is no tariff is acceptable. And the best shot we have at no tariff is working together with the rest of the country. You
Corey
51:58
You know, showing strength together. Our interest can't just be supporting one industry. It's supporting all of the industries. It's supporting our markets.
Carter
52:04
markets. That's really good.
Carter
52:06
That's really good, Corey. That took my point and made it so much better.
Zain
52:10
But the only reason you didn't make it is because you're tired and not because you're not good. Listen,
Carter
52:15
still recognize greatness when I see it. Yeah,
Carter
52:18
Just normally I see it in myself. Did you
Zain
52:19
you see it at all today, at any point during the day?
Carter
52:30
that's a wrap on episode 1848 of The Strategist. With me as always, Corey Hogan, Zane Velji, I'm Stephen Carter.