Transcript
Zain
0:01
This is the Strategist episode 1841. My name is Zain Velji and with me as always for this emergency episode, Corey Hogan and there's
Zain
0:10
there's a great Stephen Carter. Guys, most of our episodes are evergreen. They last for a long time. You can pick it off the shelf at any point. Wisdom available. This one, maybe
Zain
0:20
maybe not so much because we are
Corey
0:22
doing an emergency episode because Corey, what
Corey
0:25
what do we have to talk about? It's a hot banana in the sun, Zane. That's the go-to metaphor for me. Wow,
Zain
0:31
That's not bad. I call it the ideal, the model way to quit, which is give your boss the middle finger, flip over his desk, and leap through the window with a parachute. Stephen Carter, Christopher Freeland has done all of that. Yeah,
Zain
0:46
And more with the letter. Okay, we want to talk about the resignation of Christopher Freeland as finance minister. We want to talk about these swirling rumors, and this is very important. we're recording at 1 50 p.m right now mountain time this is 3 50 p.m eastern so none of this could
Corey
1:04
there's a good chance by the time i post this it's totally irrelevant yeah also
Zain
1:07
also that's not what i meant i meant none of this could be good sorry you're just interrupting this uh you're just uh it's
Zain
1:13
it's gonna be irrelevant but it may also not be good early
Corey
1:16
early takes are the best takes zane it's what's really in our heart yeah
Zain
1:19
yeah even carter let's talk to me about this letter it's a one One pager by Christopher Freeland. Here are the beats. You told me, Prime Minister, to take on another cabinet position on Friday. I'm now saying I can't do that. My only path is to resign. You're doing a lot of political gimmicks with my portfolio. I don't enjoy your full confidence. See you the fuck later. Also, this happens to be the day that I deliver the Fez. P.S. I'm running in the next election. Did I miss
Corey
1:44
No. There's one thing that you didn't miss, but you kind of breezed over, and I want to just stop for a minute. Tariff? Yeah, she has a bit of a list of the various things that she thinks Canadians need at this particular moment. And then goes on to say, I think Canadians would appreciate if a government addressed these things and took these actions. I know Canadians would recognize and respect such an approach. But there's such an approach that she lists ahead of time includes things like working in good faith and humility with the premiers. years so this i've never seen a letter with so much subtext and actually i gotta tell you one of the things that i just love as a comms professional is she's really showing the power of the written word and like very carefully choosing words for maximum intrigue maximum damage maximum discussion she has crafted in one page a real masterpiece of a very professional go fuck yourself justin oh
Zain
2:36
oh this this is this is probably one of the best if we make a coffee table book, which we will, of Go Fuck Yourselves. We'll obviously have some of the classics. This is the cover, though. This might be the cover. Certainly, Carter, it will be in a
Zain
2:52
worksheet that people can have, because it's, of course, going to be a coffee table book where you can detach it and do your own fuck you letters. Stephen Carter, here's
Zain
3:01
Here's the thing. Let's talk about the content of her letter, sure, but I also want to talk about the strategy energy of her letter, because she has caused maximum chaos. And the question I have for you before you talk about this is, if you were strategically advising her, could she have done it in any other way to create more maximum chaos? Or was this a masterclass, not just in content, but also in strategic execution?
Carter
3:27
Well, I don't think that there was any way of causing more chaos, but was it intentional? I think that yes, on some levels, it was intentional, because Because she could have resigned tomorrow. She could have sucked it up for a little while and done her economic update. She chose to go today. That has put the Prime Minister on the back foot, to say the very least. The entire government is, frankly, on the back foot. And this is the signal to the rest of caucus, to the rest of government, that things are way
Carter
4:01
way worse than perhaps anybody has had thought. uh
Carter
4:04
you know the rumors that came out last week about how christopher helen and
Carter
4:08
and the prime minister weren't getting along you
Carter
4:10
you know we talked about how there was probably some truth to those rumors um
Carter
4:13
um but now we're we're really seeing the depth uh
Carter
4:15
uh that that that that conflict has and uh you know this is the danger of telling someone they're out of cabinet too um before
Carter
4:25
before just moving them out of cabinet i think this is a a major major blow uh to to justin trudeau and i don't think it could Could have been struck with that. There's strategy questions
Zain
4:35
questions on both sides. His strategy, and did he screw this up, and her strategy, and did she nail this? Corey, respond to her strategy first. Did she just nail this from a strategic perspective if her goal was pure chaos and maximum hurt and pain for the PM? Well,
Corey
4:56
I think that I would agree that this is about as good as it gets, and I'll tell you why.
Corey
5:01
Yeah, walk me through it. Because of the second part, the part that we'll get to in a minute here, but the
Corey
5:05
the prime minister, I'm sorry, he did this to himself in the sense that he handed her the mother of all bats to hit him with. And so it's not the letter, it's the letter at this moment, and it's the letter at this moment with no notice, which causes the chaos, and that's what's so lethal. On the day
Zain
5:22
day of the Fez. This is
Corey
5:23
is it. We'll talk about the Fez in a minute here, right? But you have a situation where the opponent really handed you everything you need to make them really hurt about it. And so then she executed the tactics, I think, really well. I mentioned the written word that's there.
Corey
5:36
I mean, really controlled her message going out like that. I think it was super smart of her not to put herself in front of a camera, let her words speak for themselves, let her friends and colleagues speak for her qualities. And I mean, even Doug Ford today, which, by the way, some of the drama involved, all the premiers were meeting today as this is all going down. Look, you can't script these things. and um and so you know doug forrest saying like oh you know i really like christia i talked to her earlier today i put i put her on speakerphone so all the other premiers could talk to her too like imagine that like he's on speakerphone being like guys i'm not gonna be around anymore and they're like don't go christian or whatever the fucking conversation was yeah it's crazy courtesy was not applied to the cabinet or the caucus one would imagine oh no oh no and you know so So that does, you know, letting it sit out there, let everybody react to you. Just even the message that she sent later or her team sent later when they asked, who's giving the update? Who's giving the FIS, the fall economic statement? And the response back is, I don't know, that's up to the prime minister or the Department of Finance. I think she ran until minutes before. Right. So it's just really
Corey
6:46
really crazy and it's really big. But it would not have been possible without the prime minister and the prime minister's team having the absolute hubris, the total arrogance, the incompetence of firing her three days before she's supposed to give this update. That is unconscionably bad tactics there.
Carter
7:08
And to what end? You know, like, you know, to the end that you're going to have a cabinet shuffle prior to Christmas? like we talked about whether or not the you know this could be done in the in the in early january of course it could be done in early january absolutely let her do the update and then take her knees out you don't have to take her knees out before christmas you
Zain
7:31
grinch did did cartney cartney needs to be we'll talk about cartney in a second because he's now also embroiled in this very directly um but carter i think there's cory had a lot of you know statements around around incompetence, arrogance, etc., there's also just a pure miscalculation where Corey says that, you know, you've given the opponent everything that they need. Carter, it seems like one of the miscalculations was is that as soon as Chrystia Freeland stepped into that room virtually or over the phone or in person with Justin Trudeau, they never viewed her as an opponent, despite what the news was. Do you think that was a fundamental miscalculation? And is there a lesson to be learned here? Because I think there's something interesting in even how Corey phrased his comments. So Carter, first of all, I'll come to you, Corey. Well,
Carter
8:13
Well, it's fascinating. I mean, this kind of core assumption that you can fire someone and have them not turn into your enemy.
Carter
8:20
That's an interesting assumption. I'm not sure that many people can make that assumption. Oh, I just fired them. I'm sure we'll be best friends and we'll probably still be invited to Christmas dinner. Any lived
Zain
8:30
lived experience with this? None. Okay, good. No, none. on um
Carter
8:34
um but the you know you can just fire someone and they're going to just be oh that was i was totally fine uh with getting removed from my position we talked about how few finance ministers move and now uh justin trudeau has moved two of them because he can't get along with them that
Carter
8:51
that to me is is insanity and christia freeland was so uh so beloved early in her reign that she not only got uh finance minister she got deputy prime minister and
Carter
9:02
and the deputy prime minister is not a role that needs to be handed out you
Carter
9:07
not you know not have a deputy prime minister um but he handed it out because he thought so highly of her of her reputation and keep in mind at one point we were calling her the minister of everything right
Carter
9:18
right she was the person who was running the government And
Carter
9:21
now he's lost confidence in her and has thrown her out. And yes, his
Carter
9:30
his team made a substantial miscalculation in thinking that, hey, they're just going to be best buds afterwards. It's all going to be fine because Christian will understand.
Carter
9:40
That just was apparently completely
Corey
9:43
That was insane. And it
Corey
9:45
it would have been very different if it was clear that she wanted to do this update. But we all knew, we all knew from the reporting that was done last week, she did not. Like she thought that this was kind of a bad bag that she was being asked to hand to the Canadian people. And she did not want to do it. And then you fired her. And then she decided, well, I'm not going to give this update then. Why in the world would she give this update? I actually try to have a little bit of sense of what that parallel universe looks like. And it's actually ridiculously
Corey
10:12
ridiculously embarrassing. You know, just imagine she didn't resign today. And then it came out later, she'd been fired, but she was asked to give that. Do you think all of it would have been, well, what a good soldier she was? No, it would have been like, fuck,
Corey
10:24
fuck, that's embarrassing for her. And I can't believe the Prime Minister asked her to do that.
Corey
10:29
And the reporting would have been very different. And I don't think actually to the advantage of, well,
Corey
10:34
well, it would be better for Justin Trudeau than what he's got today, but I don't think it would have been a great story for either of them here. So I do not understand why they
Corey
10:43
they thought, like how delusional are they? I'm just going to say it, that they thought they could fire her and that she would do this for them. Like in a way, the fact that they were scrambling to the point that it wasn't clear who was going to give this update to the point where there wasn't somebody ready to give the update. The media lockup – The order papers
Zain
10:59
papers say Champagne and then Boissoneau in that order, and the latter of the two is comical because – Because he's not here.
Corey
11:05
He's not in cabinet. But even if you know that, sure, the order paper is wrong, you've got to have a plan. Totally. The media lockup basically
Corey
11:12
basically had to be rescheduled. It was like done and then gone and then back.
Corey
11:17
Yeah, I mean, they clearly weren't ready for this. And how can you not be ready for this considering everything we've just talked about? Carter, can
Zain
11:25
about this a bit more? Because as we record now, 2
Zain
11:30
.m. Mountain, 4 p.m. Eastern, in an hour, the Liberal caucus, not just the cabinet, is set to meet. So the in-person caucus meeting will happen at 5 p.m. Eastern. There could be developments there, many rumors, and we'll get to those in a second. it. But Carter, some things have already happened in this letter and this botched firing have already happened. So let's talk about that a bit more. Was this a strategic and tactical fail by the PMO or just one of the two? And the reason I ask this is because I want to examine when we talk about strategy and tactics what the difference is. But give me your take on this. Corey, I'll ask you the same question and then the same elements of it for Krista Freeland, although I think you've answered both strategic and tactical W for her. But for the PMO, Carter, was this just just purely a strategy fail or both strategy and tactical fail? I
Carter
12:15
I think it's a strategy and tactical. Let's assume that the decision had been made like just for shits and giggles. Mark Carney is going to be your next finance minister.
Carter
12:24
Is there any particular reason to
Carter
12:27
to move this quickly? Is there a strategic upside for pulling the trigger before Christmas? You know, is there polling that you're going to influence? Are people paying attention? Is this going to be a major major uplift for you um none of those things are could we
Zain
12:42
we be missing something that the year end gives them like it is i was i was racking my brain too is there anything their
Carter
12:48
their year end you
Carter
12:49
you know like it's it's just another day in their calendar right like it's not like uh
Carter
12:53
uh you know you put carney in there and then the the fiscal year end is going to change um
Carter
12:57
um the fiscal you know like it's just another day um
Carter
13:02
mean i guess he would get a few more days with his briefing binder But let's assume that Mark Carney doesn't need a few more days with his briefing binder. It just doesn't. So the strategy of change, changing your primary. We talked about how kind of fraught it is to change your primary finance minister, that it's not necessarily done. And we went through the examples in our last episode. Now we're
Carter
13:29
we're seeing that. Why isn't it done? well because you can lose
Carter
13:33
lose the confidence of the entire the entire group the finance minister has been the one who is holding the reins so yes it was a strategic mistake to uh think well i can just move my finance minister and yes it was a tactical mistake to do so uh before the economic update and before uh christmas when you know you could have very easily done this in the early day They, you know, between Christmas and New Year's and the impact would have been far, far less, even if it had been the still the kind of colossal fuck up that we've seen unfold today.
Zain
14:09
Corey, strategic and tactical fail?
Corey
14:12
Yeah, for sure it was. The strategy, let's just put it this way. I am utterly befuddled why, and no slight against Mark Carney, because I actually have a lot of time for Mark Carney. I think he's a super smart guy. I think we would be very lucky to have somebody like him in politics.
Corey
14:26
He is not going to change your fundamental situation, right? If you are sitting there as a liberal brain trust and you're thinking, well, all we need is to get Mark Carney as finance minister and everything fucking changes, I'm
Corey
14:38
I'm sorry. We're sitting here in an anti-elite movement moment, I guess I mean, and we're talking about putting the Bank of England governor in as the finance minister. What's that going to do? Like, you're going to have people just –
Carter
14:49
Unelected finance minister. Lighting
Corey
14:51
Lighting their hair on fire. Exactly, Stephen. and it just it doesn't resolve the problem that's in front of you it's like trying to solve a problem that you don't actually have yes i agree that canadians think you're not very good at the economy but it's it's not actually a christian freeland thing it's a justin trudeau thing it's a liberal thing and i don't think mark carney his brand is so strong that it overwhelms those other two characteristics that's my firm belief so strategically the idea that all you need to do is turn around this government with mark carney wrong
Corey
15:20
wrong wrong wrong you cannot show me any polling that would prove that to be the case. Tactically,
Corey
15:26
Stephen's already gone through it.
Corey
15:28
How do you do this right before the fall economic statement? How do you do this? How do you not wait until Tuesday? Even if she asked you Friday, hey, am I in or am I out? How do you not lie until Tuesday at this point? It's just, it's so crazy to me that they did this to themselves. And I think it's great evidence that this is not a government with its head on straight, as if we needed more. but this is just on top of the gst rebate which by the way started yesterday and nobody's even talking about because of this drama on
Corey
15:59
on top of the talk about reversing the checks for 250 dollars yes this
Corey
16:04
this is not good does
Corey
16:06
does does anybody in the world not realize this is not good nailed it this is
Corey
16:11
hey k carter yeah
Corey
16:13
yeah before we before we leave freeland
Zain
16:13
freeland because i still want to walk through the carney door the pmo door and then the future state whatever the the hell happens to her um first
Zain
16:21
first question on freeland when
Zain
16:23
when do you pop your head back up and how oh
Carter
16:26
oh i'd take some time i mean absence makes the heart grow fonder i would i would disappear until probably mid to late january uh
Carter
16:36
well when's the house gonna stop sitting tomorrow
Carter
16:40
christmas break baby go back to your riding uh go back and to your real life uh figure out your head from your ass but no one everybody's going to want to talk to her she's going to be the most popular person uh in in ottawa in probably in canada for the next couple of days um but there's no reason to answer that call you'll still be one of the most important most powerful most popular people uh when you come back in january and now you'll have your story straight to cory's point you know it's easy to put down the written word But sometimes it's hard to sit in front of a camera and answer the questions with the same rhetoric and capacity that that Chrystia Freeland answered, you know, wrote that letter. She'll come back. She'll be ready to answer those questions. She'll be 100 percent focused. She won't have the hurt. There was a couple of articles that mentioned her eyes tearing up over the weekend. end.
Carter
17:35
She'll be stealing and ready to go when she comes back in mid to late January and begins to answer the questions. Why did you knife the prime minister? And who do you think the next prime minister is going to be?
Zain
17:49
Corey, why don't you pop our head back up?
Corey
17:51
I don't know. But I do want to bridge into that by saying the
Corey
17:54
the strategy for her was great on a couple of levels. And I don't know what her plans are next. But we've
Corey
18:00
we've always said one of her problems if she wants to be the next leader is she's too close to justin trudeau too tight she just loyal
Corey
18:06
everything she does seems like it's a justin trudeau thing and
Corey
18:09
and you know we are usually the first to say hey the person who wields the knife does not get the crown that probably still stands to be the truth here
Corey
18:16
here too but dozens
Corey
18:18
dozens of mps have asked him to step down she's not the first and arguably he's the one who betrayed her in this particular move so she has managed to find a way with one play here to to extract herself from his shadow and make him look like the guy who shot first, which he was, let's be clear. But that absolves her of these steps that have come since then, at least to a degree. I'm not saying entirely, but at least to a degree. And that's amazing. If you have ambitions of leadership going forward, you have just done yourself a massive service. Now, we can talk about whether she's the right person for other reasons, her communications weaknesses, whether just being tied to the government for so long is still going to rear her head uh in a negative way with canadians but wow like really really good and so i'm going to put that hat on to answer your question here which is and
Corey
19:09
and my fundamental answer is i don't know but when should she pop her head back up the
Corey
19:14
the minute people are about to stop talking to her you
Zain
19:16
you know carter tell me this uh would stephen carter have made a difference in making this letter better yes or no and if so What? Would Corey Hogan have made a difference in making this letter better? Yes or no? No,
Corey
19:28
No, I don't think so.
Zain
19:28
so. This is really well written. This is the first 10 out of 10 we're giving to the Liberals for a very long time.
Zain
19:33
Well, to a Liberal, to a Liberal and her staff. Bush, by the way, is actually worth mentioning. We hear rumors of an incredibly loyal, dedicated staff that she seems to have around her, who may or may not, you know, continue on with Dominic LeBlanc, who's going to get get sworn in in a couple of minutes here as a new
Corey
19:54
new finance minister for the government yeah
Zain
19:56
carter okay that was the the christian freeland door i i said i want to go to carney but before i go to carney uh
Zain
20:01
uh can i go to jagmeet singh for half a second justin trudeau has to go uh this government is obsessed with infighting right move or wrong move for jagmeet singh thus far i
Carter
20:10
i mean i think it's the only move um it was a predictable answer i mean him saying that uh justin trudeau needs to ago makes perfect sense but it's not gaining him anything he's not able to elevate himself beyond being a footnote in the story i mean what paragraph will we see jagmeet singh's answer right paragraph 22 on jagmeet singh also asked for the prime minister to step down that is is just not great strategic communications and i don't have anything better for him but this is this is what happens when you are not the author of the situation when in fact you're just the person who's the passenger going further well actually
Corey
20:48
actually i would say that he set himself this fate months ago and we talked about this when he said he was going to support the government case by case and no longer give like the supply and confidence agreement you know he ripped it up right so
Corey
21:00
so yeah he said the prime minister has to go the obvious next question or that his next comment was all options are on the table get out of here with that weak ass shit all options are are on the table. And then he was really called on pretty quickly. I think it was Paul Wells who said, okay, but we're in the real world. Would you vote for confidence or not after everything you've just said? And he just repeated, like a weak child, all options are on the table. Jagmeet, this is not even a change from your position yesterday. This is ridiculous. All options are on the table, but you're going to continue to prop up these people? The finance minister doesn't even support this government, and you're supporting this government.
Corey
21:38
You look pathetic right now and this is because you've created this trap for yourself where all of a sudden every single vote people turn to you and say are you still going to do it you know you said it's not a confidence and supply agreement anymore like let's do a mental exercise at this point what would it take for sing to vote down this government because
Corey
21:55
because because we've got three
Carter
21:57
three million dollars in his bank account we've had uh for the new democrat part new democrats labor
Corey
22:02
labor has been ordered back to work in the canada post strike right by the liberal by the liberal minister right uh we have now had the finance minister leave under spectacular conditions as we're talking about right now he's
Corey
22:15
he's blown through any kind of like deadlines and ultimatums that are given generally speaking and he continues to say frowns i don't know about this right now i guess i'm going to look at him a little bit uh askance i'm going to look like i'm not totally satisfied with him but i'm going to continue voting to prop this guy up like you couldn't look weaker if you try Jagmeet. And the crazy thing is, you're going to think it's working because inevitably, Trudeau is going to drop five points in the polls, and
Corey
22:41
and you're going to be ahead of him. And you're going to say, hey, look at us. We're now in second place.
Corey
22:46
That has nothing to do with you. And in fact, you've created a very weak, painful situation for yourself.
Zain
22:52
Carter, let's talk about Mark
Zain
22:56
Okay. How can he take
Zain
22:58
take on the finance minister role now? Let me paint you a picture. Trudeau's Trudeau's gotten rid of Freeland. Freeland has gone scorched earth. Freeland's a woman, another woman that Justin Trudeau's gotten rid of. Like, he's got a narrative there. And now you bring in the central banker from central casting to take over. That's not a good look.
Zain
23:16
How does Mark Carney take this off? I don't think—can
Corey
23:18
think—can we just say, I don't think he does it. I'm hearing he's out. If he was ever in,
Carter
23:22
he's out. Yeah, he's got
Carter
23:23
got to be out. I mean, there's no way he can take this on. I mean, he will look—
Zain
23:27
To the question, yes.
Carter
23:28
yes. He will look completely weak. He will look, he
Carter
23:31
he won't look like the leader. He'll look like he was, he has his fingertips on the knife that got plunged into Chris Jefferian's back. He is, and he's under no obligation to take it. So could either
Zain
23:42
either of you, could either of you think of me a strategic scenario that you can craft that would allow Mark Carney to take this job? And if the answer is no, the answer is no. But dig deep and think for me a scenario in which you would say, Mark, you could take the job. Who wants to go first? I'll go
Carter
24:01
uh, an interim prime minister calls Mark Carney to become the, uh, minister of finance, uh, to, uh,
Carter
24:07
uh, get through the budget.
Corey
24:10
Okay. That's scenario one. Corey, what's your scenario? Scenario two is just to say, uh, you know, through your people, not directly, but say, you know, Mark, uh, was asked to be finance minister. He was told that Christian was fine with it, that Christian wanted to put her focus elsewhere. He had no idea this was happening. He's aghast at what happened. Absolutely aghast. But he also knows this is too sensitive a time, too important a time. We're one month to Trump's tariffs coming in, theoretically. Canada needs a finance minister and experienced one. He thinks he can be that person. He thinks he can serve. He's not thrilled to serve in this way, but he's not going to let the country down at this point.
Carter
24:43
Oh, God, that's weak.
Zain
24:45
you moved a few pieces on the board in order to get to yours. Yeah, I had
Corey
24:48
had to move a lot
Zain
24:48
because I don't think that that would work. You had to fire the prime minister. Yeah, you had to pretty much – okay, but let's bring in the prime minister for a second. Corey, if Mark Carney – and this is a big if, okay? But let's just go down a hypothetical avenue. If Mark Carney is the anointed Justin Trudeau succession plan, would
Zain
25:05
would you as Trudeau have to resign in order to give Carney a clean slate to run directly for leadership and bypass the whole finance option? Or can you prorogue and bring him back? Like, the premise is, if Carney is your succession plan, squarely, what moves are you making as Justin Trudeau today, Corey?
Corey
25:27
mean, that was a lot cleaner yesterday, right? It was. But now you've got a pretty difficult situation. I think he's so tied up in this already, he's going to get all of the downside and none of the upside if he's not made finance minister. So I think if this is the plan and if he's in on it, you still make him finance minister and you bring him there. And as weak as Carter thinks it is, I think you bring out a narrative like I've just described, which is saying, didn't know it was going to go down this way. It's
Corey
25:54
It's kind of bullshit, but I'm somebody who's here to serve. because let's not forget one of the reasons why he might be interested in taking the finance minister position in the first place is to shore up the conversation that uh he's
Corey
26:05
he's only here for the good times not the bad times right that's why he didn't run so he wants to be here for some of the bad times like he is intentionally running into a burning building taking a position like this so you just got to own it and embrace it and make that part of your brand and double down on that because if that's the story you're going for you
Corey
26:23
you just keep telling that story that's your only choice at this particular moment or
Carter
26:27
or carter no it's not your only choice your only choice the other half of the choice is don't go and that to me is the infinitely more wise position um don't go until such time as as there's an interim prime minister who calls upon you uh to serve uh in a moment of crisis in the moment of crisis is justin trudeau uh finally deciding that he's able yeah Here's my
Corey
26:49
my problem with that. Everybody knows that Carney was the plan.
Corey
26:54
He's got that downside. You're not going to point to him. It's going to be like, well, Trudeau got exactly what he fucking wanted, is what it's going to feel like at that particular moment. So how do you, how do you, Carter,
Zain
27:04
Carter, to answer the question, I'll get back to Corey. How do you as Trudeau now, you're helping Trudeau, how do you as Trudeau ensure Carney can still remain the plan? What are your strategic moves ahead of you? Because you've tossed prorogation on the table, you've got resignation, you've got moves. What are they to ensure Carney is your successor?
Carter
27:24
I mean, I think that Carney has to be off the table. I think that if you put Carney in at this stage, you're throwing gasoline on the fire and another female minister replaced by a guy. I mean, already you've got Dominic LeBlanc running in there, but at least he's a guy that has been a fundamental part of the Justin Trudeau government. Doesn't
Zain
27:43
Doesn't resignation make Carney much more viable? You leave and open up a leadership race. Now Carney is one of five people running for your job. Doesn't that still keep your pathway cleaner for him? If he leaves. Sure,
Carter
27:55
but then the prime minister has to resign. Like, the
Carter
27:58
the prime minister has to resign.
Carter
28:00
It's the only answer to all of these questions. The only answer to all these questions. Okay, that's helpful. That's on the table. The prime minister has to resign. It's on the table. Corey, sources
Zain
28:08
sources say that Prime Minister has tossed out resignation and prorogation as a hype. Which one would you advise for him and why?
Corey
28:17
I would have advised resignation for him a year and a half ago and every day since.
Zain
28:21
Excellent. On December 16, 2024, what would you advise? I
Corey
28:26
I would advise resignation. I'm actually being flipped because I've been saying for months it might be too late. But at this point,
Corey
28:31
like the car has fallen apart. part we are now in in emergency recovery situation here where he's got to look at ways he can rebuild and i don't think he can rebuild the most important step of rebuilding is still in his control though and that's resigning and allowing the party to move on from his leadership
Zain
28:50
what value does prorogation add carter is it just like purely pride is that all it gets him or does it actually give him strategic value with all of the pieces on the board and what we know right now I
Carter
29:01
I mean, what's he gaining at this stage? A couple of weeks or a couple of days? I mean, he doesn't have to go back into the House of Commons until, still
Carter
29:10
still has to go back in in the spring, still needs to do a budget, still needs to try and figure out a way to keep Singh from toppling his, oh, never mind. He doesn't have to worry about that. Singh will never topple his government. But,
Carter
29:21
you know, there's no
Carter
29:23
no real advantage to prerogation. The real advantage that still exists, the only thing that I can see that makes sense is resignation. It's too late. It's too little. But this is what happens when hubris starts to be the
Carter
29:43
the driving factor. actor. I mean, he thought he was the only one who could beat Pierre
Carter
29:49
despite all evidence to the contrary. And now we are in a place where all the chickens have come home to roost, and he's completely screwed. Like, there is
Carter
30:00
is no means available, by
Carter
30:03
by my reckoning, for
Carter
30:04
for this guy to continue to be the leader.
Corey
30:06
Yeah. Coy? Like, I think they're a bundle, resignation and prorogation. You resign and you prorogue, which allows you then to have a leadership contest in some way, shape, or form, and you try to do it fast. Actually, it's so interesting to think about because we've still got this tariff challenge that we're staring down here, right? But I think that that has to be the bundle. And maybe it's prorogation and you resign, you basically let it be signaled all in, like we're going to start this leadership contest after the swearing in of the president and once we get there. I don't know, but like they go together. There's no reason in my mind to prorogue unless
Corey
30:43
you're planning to resign, too, because that's what then gives you the time to regroup and rebuild. A prorogation otherwise is just a very quick tactical thing to avoid a confidence vote.
Corey
30:53
I guess that would be the answer, though. If you think that the NDP is actually going to vote against you, you could prorogue your way out of that. But I'll be honest, that
Corey
31:01
that doesn't look like much of a risk right now.
Carter
31:03
Yeah, I mean, I've heard
Zain
31:05
heard all options are on the table.
Carter
31:07
That's like the sun shining at midnight. night it's just not going to happen so
Zain
31:10
so not unless you're alaska or that movie and zombie have you seen that movie al
Zain
31:15
al pacino robin williams i'm gonna watch
Carter
31:16
watch hillary swank it's
Carter
31:19
i don't go out of my house much yeah
Zain
31:21
we understand that makes sense you're dressed in all black are you mourning something i'm
Carter
31:26
i'm more yeah i'm mourning the loss of christian freeland okay
Corey
31:29
okay that's what i thought yeah it's good i'll let you fill that blank um
Zain
31:32
cory do you want to go down uh river avenue again yeah sure what
Corey
31:35
what are you hearing i'm hearing all sorts of stuff i'm I'm hearing, let's just be clear.
Corey
31:40
Like, let's not go deep into the rumors. Stop saving this till the end. Let's talk about the
Corey
31:44
of rumors, I think, maybe as much as anything. I'm hearing there are other ministers prepared to resign. Some reasons we might believe that are on the...
Zain
31:51
Oh, by the way, Fraser did resign this morning. Sorry. Oh,
Zain
31:55
Fraser. You were going to potentially leave the party in the future, but you're a footnote for... Well,
Corey
31:59
Well, and by the way, it's super
Corey
32:00
super awkward that during his conference, that's when he learned about Freeland, and then he had to... I didn't see that moment. Oh, yeah. did someone tell oh i didn't see it so that's where he learned about it uh weird stuff but he said nice things about her but on the insta cabinet uh and then it said you know did this whole i'm so shocked and i'm so overcome with emotion thing that i didn't 100 buy i'm just gonna be honest it like felt a little yeah a little performative but uh saying oh
Zain
32:26
oh so you think she may have known well
Corey
32:27
well i whether she knew or not i think that it's still a
Zain
32:31
a bit of crocodile tears years
Zain
32:33
right so oh shit called
Zain
32:35
called out you know not well she can respond directly to the party listen you can email us not as good of an actor as you think you are that's all I'm gonna say
Zain
32:45
go ahead okay good
Carter
32:47
good thanks very much Zane how many Oscars
Zain
32:49
Oscars have we won as the brown community very few very
Zain
32:52
very few okay maybe Ben Kingsley but he doesn't even have a brown name so
Corey
32:57
so I'm just gonna move past that and say that's what you said
Carter
33:00
said I think I think you should just keep going, Corey.
Corey
33:02
Make you sit in that uncomfortableness. Some suggestion that there's going to be other resignations in cabinet that people are considering it to put additional pressure on. Some suggestion that it might be people who would have reason to be offended, right? One of the suggestions is that Freeland was offered this minister without portfolio to be responsible for Canada-U.S. relations. Canada-U.S. Without
Corey
33:20
Without a department. Without a department. Responsible for Canada-U.S. Extra interesting because she didn't actually go down to Mar-a-Lago, you'll recall, right? Yeah.
Corey
33:27
Dominic did. LeBlanc. Yeah.
Corey
33:31
you could imagine that would be shortening somebody else's portfolio. And so maybe they wouldn't be so happy about that. Right. So there's some some questions about confidence all over the board there. So that's one big rumor that's out there, that there'll be other resignations. There are resignation or there are rumors that that the prime minister has already decided he wants to resign. And perhaps he's just being talked out of it by people around him or maybe it's already determined. Now, like we're always a little bit lagged on these particular rumors. Can we
Zain
34:00
we pause on that one for a second? Sure. Because when I hear something I'll find interesting, I want to kind of pause it for academic strategic thinking. So I
Corey
34:09
I noticed that the other cabinet resignations didn't even phase you. Who
Zain
34:13
Who cares? I feel like that's old. That's pretty straightforward. Who gives a shit?
Zain
34:16
over us for weeks. You literally have had your number two, the one who you've let run the country, leave. I don't think any of the other ones matter, really. They should have come out before, so
Zain
34:26
so to speak. Maybe they add to the pile, but I don't know if they necessarily... add that impact. But let's talk about this. Carter, you
Zain
34:33
you were chief of staff. You were in a premier's office. If you were convincing your principal to stay, do you think you'd ever be able to do so? And what argument would you use? I'll tell you something. And is it a futile exercise? I'm going to ask three questions, loaded, so you can have an opportunity to answer
Carter
34:49
answer zero. It has to be in the prime minister's office, the premier's office, any of these offices. I think if someone has decided they're going to quit, let them quit. it um your heart isn't in it any longer you're no longer serving the the best needs of the corporation the best needs of the government the best needs of whatever the situation your own best needs if you've decided that you can't have enough you've had enough and you can't make it anymore don't go running and convincing someone who's already quit to stay it's just bad governance when someone decides that they're going to go let them go and that would be the same if it was the the prime minister, or someone who's, you know, in charge of cleaning up a mess. I don't know. I was going to go somewhere, and I thought it sounds a little
Zain
35:32
little vaguely— Let him go as a good episode title. Let's go with that. Also a good episode title, Brown Oscar. That's pretty good. That's good. That's really good. Thank you for that contribution. It
Zain
35:41
It was based on your commentary about it. Yeah,
Carter
35:42
Yeah, I know. It's fantastic.
Zain
35:45
What would you do, Hogan? Like, if you were either—I guess let's just put you in the staffer position. would you would you try to would
Zain
35:52
you try to a try to convince someone to
Corey
35:54
to stay and b is that ever successful i
Corey
35:56
i think it is such a big thing when you're in a position like that to decide that you're gonna and listen unless this is happening like every minute because that's your personality and you're always threatening to go the minute you've decided that you want to leave that job you've probably had those thoughts for a very long time and you are so sure that you're now articulating them so my general view is it's too late by the time you're having that conversation conversation in a way, if it's, you know, that you've declared, like, I think it's time for me to go, you're gone, it's already over. And even if they convince you to stay, your heart's not going to be in it, you're not going to do the things you need to do. Make no mistake, being a leader of a political party is
Corey
36:31
is a very demanding job, very hard job being a prime minister, way more so still. And if you don't want to do it, you shouldn't do it. There's there's 100 reasons why you shouldn't do it if you don't want to do it. So move on, right? If you no longer have the fire, if you no longer believe you are the person to do the role move
Corey
36:48
move on and if you're the staff around it i understand you're seeing this like your whole job your whole identity is defending your principle protecting them advancing them and it feels like a personal failure if you can't do that right
Corey
37:00
right it also feels like this is the whole reason you're here and um and and and you you've internalized that to a point where it's not even just about your failure it's about you you believe in this bigger thing and your leader is the the epitome of it so i get it but don't do it it's over at that point it's over carter
Zain
37:18
carter if if trudor were to leave today tomorrow next couple of weeks would it surprise you that he did so without having katie left first or does that not surprise you at all and and this is not a personal site on katie it's just the chief of staff position is is usually one of those tools
Zain
37:33
tools you have to throw under the bus and in this case did not does not seem It doesn't seem like that is going to be the case for him.
Corey
37:39
him. I don't even think it could, given all of the narrative right now about his – Right now,
Zain
37:42
now, I think it's definitely a no. So more than likely, if and when Justin Trudeau leaves, Katie Telford will have left with him, but not because of him, not thrown under the bus by him. Does that surprise you for a guy that's been mired in two years of this sort of downward trajectory?
Carter
38:00
not really given their relationship. Their relationship appears to be one that kind of goes beyond regular politics. And I think that we saw that with Ron Glenn and Ed Stelmack, where their
Carter
38:13
their relationship was so strong that the drumbeat to get rid of Ron was actually heard
Carter
38:21
heard by the premier and he resigned.
Carter
38:24
you know, you can't have, you can't get, I won't let you take him out. I think that that's the position that this that
Carter
38:30
this prime minister is taking with Katie. And let's be clear, I think that Katie is tremendously
Carter
38:38
run this run this government very,
Carter
38:40
very, very well in
Carter
38:44
not the last couple of years. And whether
Carter
38:47
whether that's the prime minister or Katie, someone should have realized that there needed to be new new blood and new and new direction. And that hasn't happened. so
Carter
38:59
i think that katie comes going down with the ship was probably in
Carter
39:03
in the cards right from the get-go cory
Corey
39:05
cory what do you think yeah well it is one of the i mean it's it's very on a day high of drama that's that's a very dramatic thing but it's uh it's probably true right like they were a team from day one and i think that they will probably end as a team too but i mean let's be clear we're still just talking about rumors and it's possible that ottawa leaves tomorrow the The Ottawa rumor mill just spins itself down, and a month from now, Justin Trudeau does make a change of that position, and that is to probably another woman chief of staff, right? But,
Corey
39:40
yeah, that's a possibility, too. We just don't know what's going to happen here.
Zain
39:43
Ah, Christopher Freeland. That makes sense.
Corey
39:44
sense. Yeah, I hear she's now available. Oh,
Zain
39:46
Oh, my God. It's
Zain
39:48
I think we solved it, guys. Corey, what else are you hearing? You hearing anything else? Carter, I'll come to you if you're hearing anything. Well,
Corey
39:53
Well, I was hearing that Carney was in, right? And so we'll see. Maybe he is still. Maybe this is just a moment. Maybe it's people putting words in his mouth around it saying maybe he's not anymore. But to be clear, though, if you guys were advising Carney, would it be like a don't do this, man? I think
Corey
40:08
would. I think it would. I'm a little bit more willing to hear the argument otherwise. And then the rumor was he was going to run in Ottawa South in a by-election. That was the other rumor. Oh, yeah, right.
Corey
40:16
Right, right. Carter, what do you hear?
Carter
40:18
It's the Liberal Christmas Party this
Carter
40:22
true it should be a great wednesday uh
Zain
40:24
uh and i think laurier club today yeah it is laurier yeah
Carter
40:27
yeah like everybody and their dog that's their big donor that's their
Carter
40:32
so everybody is out in ottawa and uh the
Carter
40:36
the rumor mills must be just going absolutely crazy oh
Zain
40:40
my fucking god cory we
Zain
40:42
we might have to record this podcast again if something happens between between well now and this evening i mean there's
Corey
40:48
real good chance of that yeah
Carter
40:50
i okay so prediction time yeah because i'm so good at it no
Zain
40:54
no no it's good i'm so glad you were doing this to yourself yeah go
Carter
40:57
go ahead yeah tell me what happens what happens tonight zane uh
Zain
41:01
uh more than likely we're recording another podcast i imagine is what happens today you
Carter
41:05
really think we're recording a new another podcast no hurry are
Zain
41:07
are we sorry sorry it's me i forgot i was like you
Corey
41:10
you and and me will record a podcast even that's
Zain
41:13
that's yeah no no no i have i have no interest in doing this show uh as you know uh i've checked out like three years ago uh cory um let's do the prediction game okay let's
Carter
41:22
let's see if annalise is available first yeah
Zain
41:25
okay let's let's let's let's do that let's do that let's make that an evergreen statement okay
Zain
41:34
prorogation resignation both this evening oh
Corey
41:40
I'm going to say no. I'll tell you why. No. Because I'll bet you if it is true that the prime minister's staff is trying to talk him out of it,
Corey
41:49
if there's a give there, it's just give it a day. Just give it a day. See where we are in a day. Don't do anything rash.
Carter
41:58
I think we're re-recording tonight, and I think that we're talking about the former prime minister.
Corey
42:05
Oh, interesting. You might be right. Wow. You know, normally I just want to run screaming from your predictions, but if
Corey
42:13
not this, nothing. If not this, nothing. Like, nothing is going to bring him down if not this. Now, it could still be on a delay, but— It is a full in-person caucus
Zain
42:22
meeting, which of course makes sense because of Laurier and Christmas Party, right? Like, they're all in town, and of course— Everyone's
Zain
42:28
But it makes sense. Like, what—I mean, incredible timing again by Christopher Freeland. Like, just reinforcing again the timing of this thing. Absolute legend. Yeah,
Carter
42:37
Yeah, but keep in mind, I keep returning to this wasn't entirely her call for the timing. The
Carter
42:43
The prime minister himself said the timing.
Zain
42:46
Handed it to her, and as Corey said, and as you guys have both agreed, did not see her as an opponent when he made that ask of her on Friday, instead of just gave her free weekend leverage that she hit him on the head with on Monday morning.
Carter
42:59
the shit out of him.
Zain
43:00
Which will go, Corey, will this go down as one of the most epic strategic fails? It should. should. Absolutely
Zain
43:07
should. Give me some lessons to be learned, because this part has already happened. The long tail of it is to be seen, but it's not going to be good for the liberals. So give me some of the strategic lessons around what is to be learned of the PMO
Corey
43:21
PMO failure. Well, let's start with lesson one. Just because you've drank the Kool-Aid doesn't mean everybody around you has, right? Lesson two, just because you owe everything to the prime minister doesn't mean everything around him everybody around him does like christia freeland was a super prominent super important public persona on her own on her own right this idea that she's just going to take whatever the prime minister gives thank you minister without portfolio sounds great like that is just horseshit that's crazy and it does i mean these all wrap up really into the fact like other
Corey
43:51
other people have ambitions other people have goals other people have lives and those lives are not to serve you leader right so any smart leader is thinking about the motivations of people And by the way, textbook
Corey
44:02
textbook definition of political acumen. Political acumen, small p, which anybody in like any Fortune 500 companies expected to have, let alone the prime
Corey
44:11
prime minister of a country, is knowing how people get decisions made. And that's their internal processes, that's the external processes, the things they go through and say, why am I doing this? What do I get out of it? What's motivating me? And you understanding those things as you are working with them to try to get things done. And the obliviousness of going to somebody like Chrystia Freeland and saying, I'm going to give you this
Corey
44:34
this fake job, and I hope you'll stick around and not fucking stick a knife in me on Monday as I ask you to do this thing that you do not want to do, is
Corey
44:44
is just wild to me. They clearly had no sense of her decision making, which means they have no sense of political acumen, which means they should be on their asses out of here.
Zain
44:54
carter um what lessons are to be learned from it in addition to what cory's put on the table well
Carter
44:59
well i just think that you know whenever you're playing uh chess you look at what the your opponent's next move is and uh even when you're playing checkers you should probably be thinking what's my opponent's next move and they did not do that they were not playing political chess they were playing some other game that i'm unaware of where you don't have to go
Carter
45:19
go fish go fish is a great example go fish is uh although there might be some strategies to go for
Carter
45:25
yeah there's a little bit of strategy i don't know
Corey
45:26
know i can't remember how to play go fish uh
Carter
45:29
uh it strikes me as a pretty simple game that we'd be able to recreate relatively quickly um but the the the point of the exercise is that you should be thinking okay what will she do what
Carter
45:41
what will she do will she uh and do we have is this the right time to do this particular piece there's always more more time.
Carter
45:49
I know I tend to want to rush into things. I have a tendency to want to do things immediately, but there's always more time.
Carter
45:57
this is a great example of the prime minister not realizing that.
Zain
46:01
Corey, you've often said nothing is as good or as bad as it seems. Does that apply here for the PMO?
Corey
46:07
mean, I think that's
Zain
46:08
true. I think that's
Corey
46:08
that's true, but things look really fucking bad right now. And I think even if they were just a little bad, it would be game over for Justin Trudeau.
Zain
46:17
Carter, final question on predictions. You're thinking it's the former prime minister. You are suggesting, excuse me, that he does that tonight, if I'm getting clarity on that.
Zain
46:31
is he in or is he out?
Zain
46:34
Corey Mark Carney, is he in or is he out? He's out.
Zain
46:37
Wait, he said he's out? He's in. I
Carter
46:39
I said he's out. He's
Zain
46:41
We'll more than likely see you all in a couple of hours. That's a wrap on episode 1841 of The Strategist. My name is Zane Velji, with me as always for this emergency episode, Corey Hogan, Stephen Carter, and we'll see you next time.