Transcript
Zain
0:03
This is the Strategist episode 1833. My name is Zain Velji. With me as always, Corey Hogan, Stephen Carter. What's going on?
Zain
0:13
Corey, nothing. It's Halloween. No, it's not. Oh, yeah.
Zain
0:16
Which, you know what that means. I
Carter
0:18
I ate a pound of chocolate. Did
Zain
0:19
Did you steal it from a kid or did you, was this chocolate leftovers? This is leftovers.
Carter
0:24
Always got to buy enough leftovers you can just OD on chocolate. It's pretty great. that's good okay
Carter
0:30
hey uh cory did your kid get any uh potato chips because i'd like those one
Zain
0:34
one of your 10 kids did any one of your 10 kids get potato chips not
Carter
0:37
not halloween for you nope nope don't
Carter
0:40
celebrate take your kids trick-or-treating tonight i
Zain
0:47
don't do it yeah
Carter
0:48
yeah well this is gonna be a great episode no
Zain
0:50
no it's good fine
Zain
0:51
fine he just doesn't do it i just
Corey
0:51
just i can't engage on anything right now well
Corey
0:55
well i wonder what's going on i'm disengaging from society over the next five days.
Carter
1:01
joining me on the bug out?
Zain
1:03
I might have to. I thought you got off Twitter. Isn't that enough? Yeah, I'm kind of, you
Corey
1:10
Twitter is out there. It's like a miasma that floats around you in the real world, too, as much as you want to be. You
Zain
1:15
You know what I like on Twitter, just because I know you haven't been on a while. This For You page, it's really making me like white people and hate women. I don't know if that's by design, but that For You page is really just pushing a particular algorithm, Carter. I
Carter
1:31
I never go on the For You page. It's a rule. Just don't trust the algorithm.
Carter
1:37
Never trust the algorithm. Guys,
Zain
1:38
Guys, there's a US election coming
Zain
1:42
couple of days. Okay. Do you want to tell us what it's about? Maybe even describe the stakes?
Carter
1:48
Which do you think is worse? I keep coming back to this problem. them harris
Carter
1:58
worse than the civil war so
Corey
2:00
so you just described one as worse in in your description of the two options steven i i i
Carter
2:06
i colored that a little yeah you're right yeah
Corey
2:08
yeah you might have had your thumb on the scale that was a very zane velgey question i have
Carter
2:12
zane velgey question and i'm
Zain
2:15
i'm gonna have to check with the producers but i think we've got the time you want to try again carter yeah
Carter
2:20
which is worse yeah
Carter
2:22
paris wins civil war trump
Carter
2:27
something different than this yeah
Corey
2:28
yeah we just skipped to the conclusion of the civil war is that
Carter
2:34
well have you ever seen
Corey
2:34
seen the movie civil war i
Corey
2:36
which kind of american are you zane oh
Carter
2:39
oh man that was a good line that was a good scene good it's a good thing that
Zain
2:42
was a bad scene Is Jesse Plemons a bloated Matt Damon or a more talented Matt Damon? Let's discuss.
Corey
2:49
Is Matt Damon an underfed Jesse Plemons?
Carter
2:55
That's really good. Discuss.
Corey
2:55
Discuss. Begin the discussion. You
Carter
2:56
You know, I'd never thought of it as underfed before. I always thought of it as overfed. Malnourished.
Carter
3:02
Now that I see it, I can't unsee
Corey
3:03
unsee it. Nonsense. There's an election in five days.
Carter
3:08
There's a leadership review in two.
Corey
3:11
there's a nova scotia election going on right now yeah
Corey
3:14
you know i'm from nova scotia that
Corey
3:16
that doesn't come up enough on the show i think what
Carter
3:21
someone grab this show by the reins let's get going let's
Zain
3:24
let's let's carter it is the halloween uh spectacular show by which i mean we pared it down yeah because this is only for those patrons those suckers those fuckers those those people who pay us on a monthly basis. Carter, we ask multiple questions during their normal Halloween Spectacular, but let's get to the question that most people wait for, which is, who would you want to ghost? This, of course, is your one person that you would want to erase from Canadian politics if you could. You go on the record, you say it loudly, you say it clearly, you say, I want to ghost, and you want this person out of Canadian politics. you want them gone you want them disappeared uh you want them all but politically dead carter they're going to be part of the in memoriam in the holiday spectacular steven carter who do you want to ghost in this halloween spectacular john
Zain
4:18
okay interesting choice he's he's already arguably ghosted um i'm
Zain
4:23
i'm gonna give you another shot at it though now
Corey
4:27
now hold your ground man that was that was the right answer i
Carter
4:29
i think it was the right answer i don't understand why i have have to go back and do it again i'm
Zain
4:33
i'm gonna give you another shot okay
Carter
4:34
okay give me another shot so you're gonna find
Zain
4:36
find the right answer apparently someone
Zain
4:38
someone who's alive and active yes someone
Carter
4:40
someone who's alive and okay i'm ready now
Zain
4:42
now go ahead renny
Zain
4:45
okay cory who would you want to ghost
Corey
4:49
spectacular if if i could
Corey
4:52
could ghost one person who's
Corey
4:55
who's active and alive well
Corey
4:57
alive yes yes active maybe um
Corey
5:02
think it would be um i think
Corey
5:05
think it would be maxine bernier yeah i think that's my answer that's why i'm gonna bring
Zain
5:09
bring in a good choice carter
Zain
5:10
carter you know sometimes cory gives us a good choice and
Zain
5:13
and um sure but it often gets your competitive juices flowing after you give me bullshit answers even
Corey
5:20
even though none of this matters because there's a u.s
Zain
5:23
few He's giving you a third swing of the bat. I'm just not going to discuss the U.S.
Carter
5:29
There, I said it. Come
Zain
5:32
Do you know what? Come on.
Corey
5:33
You want to know what my problem with that answer is?
Corey
5:35
Yeah, go ahead. Tell me what that is.
Zain
5:38
problem that there's a U.S. election? I
Corey
5:40
I mean, that's underlying all of this right now. But look,
Corey
5:43
that's such a lazy answer. Like, you really think that the biggest problem with Canadian politics is Pierre Palliev?
Corey
5:50
Okay, then why'd you say it? Okay, then. Because
Corey
5:52
Because I already said
Corey
5:53
Diefenberg. That's a good point.
Corey
5:54
Why did you make him change from Diefenbaker?
Zain
5:57
Exactly. I didn't make him change. I gave him a second opportunity. He like an idiot took
Zain
6:04
It's actually more of a lesson. It's
Zain
6:06
It's a very meta lesson of sometimes doubling down. Guys,
Carter
6:09
Guys, my stomach's not feeling really good. You
Zain
6:10
You know why? I brought up the US election
Carter
6:11
election and now my tummy's going all fucked.
Zain
6:14
Are we calling it right now? Is this the episode? I
Carter
6:16
I think I might have to go take a nervous poo.
Corey
6:21
don't make him predict what's going to happen in this election. Hey,
Zain
6:30
having some difficulty understanding what might happen at this American election. Hey, who's going to win? Who's
Carter
6:35
Who's going to win this election?
Zain
6:37
Yeah, who's going to win?
Zain
6:38
Steven, before you answer.
Corey
6:41
you answer. I thought
Zain
6:42
thought you were going to say, Reddy Levesque.
Zain
6:44
That would have been a good answer. Yeah.
Zain
6:46
Yeah, he doesn't understand the callback. No,
Zain
6:48
No, I do understand the
Carter
6:49
the callback. I'm great
Zain
6:50
great at the callback. you're not good no you're not good at the call i guess sorry yeah
Corey
6:53
yeah before he answers yes corey i just want you to know the fate of the western world is on the line with what your actual answer is here so i'm going to need you to answer i'm going to need you to say donald trump's going to win this election i
Corey
7:06
you have to i
Carter
7:08
i can't swear there's
Carter
7:09
reasons why i can't say don't
Corey
7:10
don't make us run the clip you got it you got to do it you got to say you got to take this one for the the team i
Carter
7:16
can't say donald trump i can't do it because
Carter
7:19
because what if it happens well
Corey
7:21
well then you'll and i've all of a sudden
Carter
7:22
sudden reversed my record i
Carter
7:24
i said the ndp were going to win in british columbia they did i said the saskatchewan party we're going to win in in saskatchewan they did oh
Zain
7:30
oh my god they've already reversed through yeah
Carter
7:32
yeah i mean if i i can't just go fucking playing with this because of one bad episode where i called out uh uh you know uh bush like that that that's one episode 20 years I mean,
Corey
7:45
mean, you did say as well that Trudeau
Corey
7:49
Trudeau would no longer be prime minister by now. I just want to remind you.
Carter
7:53
Really? Did I say that? Yeah. I don't remember that. You
Corey
7:55
You were pretty confident the NDP were going to win by a pretty convincing margin in BC.
Corey
8:00
I think that one was like a grazed bullet. That was like a Trump
Corey
8:04
Trump-style shot to the ear you took on that particular one. I'll
Carter
8:08
I'll tell you, the fact that there's been two assassination attempts on him and he isn't going to win this in a landslide is
Corey
8:16
that's your class half full people
Corey
8:18
people have tried to kill him twice and he's he's going to win and that's pretty good for a democracy he's
Carter
8:23
he's he might win so
Carter
8:26
but here's what i'm sorry i'm disengaging
Zain
8:28
disengaging like corey now here's
Zain
8:29
problem it's five to six minutes of disengagement here's my problem and mine was really about can you guys carry the show without me and i think everyone's realizing the answers yeah yeah
Carter
8:39
we do these uh we do this show
Carter
8:42
by ourselves sometimes zane when you choose
Zain
8:44
choose not to i don't listen i don't think anyone listens
Carter
8:47
very popular hey some of
Zain
8:50
and i could just sit and sit by no
Carter
8:52
no we didn't write an intro yeah
Corey
8:53
yeah um no we don't normally have read an intro for the carter and hogan's but
Corey
8:57
but we do you the
Carter
8:58
the people we do
Carter
9:01
here's why i can't predict
Carter
9:03
predict trump number one
Carter
9:05
the u.s senators continue to pull significantly ahead of the
Carter
9:09
number two i can't it's
Carter
9:11
it's going to be a ground game election and
Carter
9:14
and the democrats have a ground game set
Corey
9:18
okay here's why you're wrong okay
Corey
9:22
first of all the
Corey
9:24
the senators are just going to do better that's just the reality that's how it sometimes goes you're seeing voting is
Carter
9:29
is is much much less than they used to be second
Corey
9:33
second of all show
Corey
9:35
show me the evidence ground game matters i mean we talked in 2016 about trump having no ground game we talked in 2020 about trump having no ground game and you know what he did in both of those elections outperformed
Corey
9:45
outperformed his polls yeah
Carter
9:47
yeah because the polls were off so
Corey
9:49
so you know what you want now the one of those elections because you don't want he wanted to
Carter
9:54
then they stole it from him in
Carter
9:55
in 2020 jesus christ how to get under my oh now i'm angry oh
Carter
10:03
under my skin holy
Zain
10:06
do you guys actually want to talk about this because i can go down i mean i don't know i
Carter
10:09
don't feel good i got
Zain
10:11
me take control of the show again because that was 10 minutes of real throwaway content about deep and baker um talk
Zain
10:19
talk to me about this, Corey, but get out the vote on the Republican side. Donald Trump is doing something that I don't think we have seen since the Kerry campaign, which is he's outsourcing GOTV to a third party or third parties. In this case, Elon Musk and Charlie Kirk. The last time I think we saw this was 04 with Kerry turning
Zain
10:41
turning the keys over on GOTV to rock the vote, quite literally being like you are my vote mobilization apparatus. It's not going to be housed within the DNC and within my presidential. It's going to be housed from the outside.
Zain
10:56
What do you think of this Trump strategy? Part of it, I assume, is because he doesn't have the resources that the democratic machine does, both in terms of money and people and the longstanding onboarding.
Zain
11:07
Do you feel like there's upside though here, from your perspective? I mean,
Corey
11:12
let's say if there is upside, there's probably a belief that they will find an efficiency and that everybody is going to come forward and find the easiest way to identify this vote as rapidly as possible, because that's what they're being paid for. They're not going to hang out in campaign offices. They're just going to get it done. Maybe. I don't know. But I think that one of the things that, can
Corey
11:35
I ask this, does it matter as much in 2024 after a generation of polarized electorate that your get out the vote effort is kind of dog shit? Like, haven't we by now through all of the midterm elections and the general elections and the data modeling that goes with all of that and the identification of just a few people that you can then extrapolate the opinions of many people? Do we actually need in 2024 in the United States to go to every fucking door to identify whether you're likely to vote for Harris or for Trump? My suspicion is no. And so in a funny way, I think Donald Trump may have through sheer incompetence stumbled upon an efficiency, right? Instead of spending so much time and effort on ground game, he's realized, I've got the vote pretty well ID'd. I can just turn on the machinery in different ways on election day and what is now election season to get everybody to the fucking polls. Like what? Like something like a third of the votes probably in right now, right?
Corey
12:33
And then he's not going to spend a lot of time and money and effort and airfare and all of the drama that goes with it on this thing that might be just kind of pointless in 2024.
Corey
12:46
Carter, what do you think? It's
Carter
12:47
It's not pointless. Getting people to the polls is still the foundational exercise of politics. It's the foundational exercise of a campaign. If you can turn out, like Donald Trump is relying on young voters. Well, young voters traditionally don't vote. They need a tremendous impetus to actually get to the polls. Are they actually going to get to the polls? I'm not seeing any evidence of that. that.
Carter
13:12
I'm seeing more women voting in the advance voting than men. I think that that's a victory for GOTV. I think that these are the types of measures that one has to look for if you want to actually see campaigns in action. And this is just a further example of Corey jumping on this campaigns don't matter. Yeah,
Zain
13:35
Yeah, of course. Corey's been having this drumbeat for the last five bullshit that
Carter
13:39
that just is designed to get my blood pressure up went to the doctor the other day cory blood pressure up you know what i said cory fucking hogan that's what i said and the doctor went oh it's totally understandable so that's that's why you know i got issues you're the issue
Zain
13:58
it's nice that your geriatrician just like says what i get it just lets you kind of be like the geriatric community
Corey
14:04
very small and my father as you know was a geriatrician So that's why I'm assuming that he knew who I was there. No, he listens to
Carter
14:11
to the podcast and he thinks that I'm always right. Makes sense. That's why I don't see him.
Zain
14:16
Yeah, totally makes sense. Corey, I'm actually with Carter on this. I get the identification part that you're talking about. I don't buy into – no, I buy into Carter's argument on mobilization. And when you look at the polling here, there's some fascinating polling, right? I think this is the most recent NBC polling that came out on Sunday, which said that for those that saw this race as being a nine or a 10 in terms of their engagement with this race, those folks were tied between Harris and Trump. If you were a seven or an eight, Harris had a plus two. And if you were anywhere between a three and a six, Trump had a plus 16
Zain
14:56
on those folks in terms of level of engagement. So on the
Zain
15:01
the identification part, I can buy your point on the mobilization part, I think I'm with Carter here still, with the more contemporary sort of, this is a fundamental-
Corey
15:10
- Okay, but the smart money is- Yeah, but let's be clear. The outsourcing of Canvas is not the outsourcing of all Get Out the Vote, because Get Out the Vote is so much bigger than just Canvas. It involves an awful lot of things these days, from advertising, to earned media efforts, to email blasts, to those massive lists that you've had built over, I don't know, you've been running for president since 2015 if you're donald trump right so it's not just about canvas and so when i talk about him maybe stumbling upon an efficiency here it's that canvas might be a lot less important because on identification it matters a lot less for a bunch of reasons one is the data and one is the big data approaches
Zain
15:50
and and are you talking simply door or phone or text i mean i'm
Zain
15:54
i'm talking about it all for the
Corey
15:55
the purposes of id but i'm saying when it gets to get out the vote vote.
Corey
16:00
Listen, you'll have to tell me if I'm mistaken here, but he
Corey
16:05
he hasn't entirely outsourced phone
Corey
16:07
phone blasts from the campaign. He hasn't entirely outsourced many of the levers that he has. It's the canvas-based stuff that has been primarily outsourced, is it not?
Carter
16:18
Yeah. And who was the other example you used as an outsourcing? I'm sorry, I forgot the name.
Zain
16:27
points. Yeah, you're talking about Kerry on four. Sorry, sorry. To be clear, this cycle, Trump has turned the keys to a couple of multiple organizations, two of the most prominent turning points, USA, and Musk's PAC. And then Kerry, I believe, was another campaign that turned the keys over on GOTV. That was a pretty close one. Renowned former President
Carter
16:46
Yeah, yeah, yeah. Okay. Just wanted to make
Carter
16:48
make sure that we were getting that, proving
Carter
16:50
proving my point, Corey, that you can't outsource this. you
Corey
16:56
you have to own it even harder to think a campaign from 20 years ago therefore is exactly how it must always be you
Zain
17:04
you've wanted to cory you've wanted to reinvent the campaign for a while now give it to me straight what what what do you what do you know what's what's your what's in your i don't even know if this thing is actually
Corey
17:11
actually tied to it i'm saying that we do spend a lot of time and money
Zain
17:16
you spend a lot of time thinking about
Zain
17:16
about this too right for for campaigns i don't disagree with you in terms of what you're saying yeah but
Carter
17:23
i mean let's let's reinvent the the entire campaign right now and here's my here are my uh my pushbacks social media is a
Carter
17:35
sure can we agree yeah
Carter
17:36
okay uh so social media no longer works is there a media infrastructure that we can still access barely
Carter
17:43
barely a media infrastructure people don't watch the news they don't pay attention to the media infrastructure what do we have left that we can actually cory's telling
Zain
17:51
cory's telling you to kill cannabis people are watching 185
Carter
17:52
185 billion billion hours of Netflix. It's not like you're actually putting advertising into those areas. Just describe to me exactly where it is that we're supposed to communicate with these people if we're not putting people on the fucking doors. If you're not putting people on the doors, how are you supposed to get your communication to
Corey
18:11
start this way. No, very well, that's not the purpose of Canvas.
Carter
18:15
It is with the deep canvassing model.
Corey
18:19
Okay. How much of the canvassing are we talking about do you think is deep canvassing? see i
Carter
18:23
think more than than used to be i'm
Corey
18:26
i'm gonna go with all the way down
Corey
18:27
down to say it's less than five percent i'm
Carter
18:29
i'm gonna say it's ten percent okay
Corey
18:34
that number out of my
Corey
18:36
yes well aware you're you're tightly wound rectum that because
Carter
18:41
because i don't feel very good and i think i'm gonna have to take a nervous poo because of the way you're talking about this fucking election i
Corey
18:48
need you to say that trump's gonna win this election for the western world
Carter
18:51
world i can't say that i
Zain
18:54
just i need you to we just need the clip we need the clip honestly i can't
Carter
18:57
can't do it and
Zain
18:58
and we won't weaponize it against you you
Carter
18:59
you will you weaponized everything against me i
Zain
19:02
i don't even know how this podcast works i'll
Carter
19:04
i'll tell you something if i say trump's gonna win and then trump wins you know what you guys are gonna do you're gonna fucking haunt me with it forever
Carter
19:11
forever it's just Way to go, Carter.
Corey
19:14
Say that in a complete sentence. Yeah, just maybe leave a little air.
Carter
19:17
air. No, I'm not going to do it. I'm not saying that Trump's going to win. I'm not saying Trump's going to win. I'm not saying it.
Corey
19:24
Leave a bit of space between not. What are you not saying?
Carter
19:28
I'm not saying Trump is going to win. I'm not saying it on the podcast. I'm not saying it in writing. I'm not saying it in anything. I think we can work
Zain
19:36
work with that. I think we can work with that. I think we can work with that. That's good. Thank you, Carter. starter um hey listen um what just happened what
Zain
19:45
what if cory i have no idea what we're doing here
Zain
19:49
none of none of us wants to be here this
Zain
19:50
this isn't true we
Carter
19:51
we love it here we love the podcast for the you've
Zain
19:53
you've derailed my entire show if you were starting off with the ucp
Carter
19:56
ucp we're gonna do that and then cory was all like cory
Zain
19:59
cory didn't want to do it i didn't want to i actually do want to explore this last thing for one second it's the loosest segment we've ever had but
Zain
20:05
but who knows people might be like the patrons might love it i doubt it they might actually they might actually they might actually upgrade their subscription i don't
Corey
20:14
go to 20 a month and we'll re-record this episode that's uh that's my commitment oh
Zain
20:20
oh interesting yeah are we doing it live can we can we let people i don't know i assume i
Corey
20:24
i don't know how
Zain
20:25
how this works we
Carter
20:25
we used to do it live do you remember that yeah it was a fun what happened to our life i thought we were gonna have a live show at some
Carter
20:30
point yeah yeah then we tried to get you involved and that's right i'm
Zain
20:34
i'm so good at live shows that's where things fell apart probably the best performer at live shows let's probably rank each other okay i'm probably first no i'm definitely first but no i'm definitely natural natural performer yeah i think actually it's true carter's first i'm second cory have you seen you have
Carter
20:48
seen my antics well we remember that time i got up and walked off the stage i
Zain
20:52
i do remember that it is part of our strategist.ca yeah isn't that that is true isn't that the picture yeah
Carter
20:57
yeah it's some good
Zain
20:57
good stuff stuff yeah you did also call someone a drunk at one point and almost got a suit at a live show well
Carter
21:04
well there's no evidence of that i mean that was that's um
Zain
21:07
um we don't record these
Zain
21:10
carter is a modern campaign just an advertising campaign yes because i think cory believes it is it
Carter
21:14
it always has been so
Zain
21:16
so then what aren't you undercutting your own point about canvassing and all that other bullshit i think that
Zain
21:21
that if traditional advertisers really good good advertising and a candidate if
Carter
21:25
if traditional advertisers had a billion and a half dollars to spend uh
Carter
21:29
uh to get everybody to show up at a movie on one day you know what they would do
Carter
21:36
they'd canvas if if they had a billion and a half dollars to try and get everybody to show up to like that's an interesting experiment uh
Carter
21:43
uh on one day they'd
Carter
21:45
they'd canvas for sure Corey?
Carter
21:49
What do you mean no? How is that not...
Zain
21:55
just run a billion dollars of ads? If you had
Carter
21:57
had a billion and a half dollars to advertise for a one day event that was going to generate all your revenue for four years, you would canvas. You
Carter
22:06
You would do everything that you had in the toolbox. Don't tell me that live experiences aren't part of the traditional advertising piece now we don't go door oh you know who goes door to door the churches go door to door you know why they have an infinite supply of human labor if
Carter
22:24
if you had the billion and a half dollars you'd go door to fucking door we
Zain
22:29
we call them disciples yeah
Zain
22:32
i don't know let's let's
Zain
22:35
answer i don't know if you know chorus from nova scotia
Carter
22:37
scotia oh you see i
Carter
22:38
this is why this is all
Carter
22:40
all screwed up yeah
Corey
22:41
yeah lived on the corner of jubilee and walnut till i was nine years old
Corey
22:48
well it's the beginning of a fucking hallmark movie
Zain
22:53
ever think of going back to nova scotia is that city slicker yeah the guy who that woman who
Corey
23:01
up with yeah who can teach me about christmas right zane that's the yeah
Carter
23:06
what's the meaning of christmas car any other
Zain
23:10
Hanukkah, we could make it. Sure. Ramadan. Absolutely. It could be 30 days, no eating, whatever.
Zain
23:17
Walnut and Jubilee, big mussel pop. Okay, go ahead, Corey. Yes.
Corey
23:22
Well, I think that most of the – listen, if you're at a Patreon level, you probably already know this, but let's just back up a step. The
Corey
23:29
The average campaign canvases to identify a vote so that they can then take that identified list and convince them on voting days. used to be just election day but now all the voting days to go out and actually show up and vote and so the whole purpose of a canvas is not to change people's minds it's not to get into arguments on the door it's to say are you going to support me and you give them a score based on the likelihood oh they're 100 emphatic they're undecided they're a soft supporter whatever it may be and then you get your supporters out on election day because you know in an environment where turnout is 50 to 60%, if you can drive your list to 80%, you
Corey
24:09
But there's some challenges with the modern canvas. First and foremost, there's a certain selection bias. Who's answering the door for political organizers who knock door to door?
Carter
24:19
The same people who answer for the church, the same exact people. People
Corey
24:23
People who care about politics, people who are going to answer the door and talk to you about it. Same with phone calls, same with a lot of these things, right? And so that's challenge number one. Challenge number two is, it doesn't actually grow the pond. It doesn't. The whole idea there is that you're trying to optimize that. What you were talking about was deep canvassing, and that's the idea that you stand on a
Corey
24:43
a doorstep for 30 minutes. If you've got one day to
Carter
24:44
to sell all your product, one
Carter
24:45
one day to sell all your product, you know what you do? You pull out all the stops. You find every potential buyer, and then you make sure that every potential buyer is there.
Zain
24:54
I think pulling out all the stops also fails to recognize the opportunity cost. A billion and a half dollars is a lot of money, but it's also a finite amount of money. And
Zain
25:03
And canvassing is a opportunity cost expense, and in many cases, a real line item expense, Carter. What's
Carter
25:11
What's the opportunity cost of sending 20 volunteers out to go darn hawking? What's the opportunity cost of that? That's a great question.
Corey
25:17
question. And in many cases, and on many campaigns, I felt half the reason that the canvas is so robust, particularly in these overwhelming
Zain
25:25
overwhelming- Because no one's got anything
Zain
25:26
to fucking do. nothing
Corey
25:26
nothing else to do and you want to keep people activated and engaged and you know motivated so that they'll be donors and they'll participate
Zain
25:33
participate here's a different way of asking the question carter you you can't talk about it in details so i'm not going to ask you to but on a municipal level campaign what's the least number of people you feel like you could win a campaign with and corey i want to ask you the same question with your two models in mind carter for you you're The least number of people to win a ward level, or I don't know what they call it. No, how about if they do mayoral?
Carter
25:59
Because I've won a
Carter
26:00
a mayoral with about 600 people. That's the lowest number.
Zain
26:06
winning a mayoral election for a million person city, what's
Zain
26:09
what's the least number of people you think you could win that election? Well,
Corey
26:11
Well, let's be clear. Stephen is very
Corey
26:14
very good at mayoral elections, and I'm not going to suggest that I've got a better finger on that pulse. But I think that a lot of the value of your – I've talked to you about Canvas in these situations before, and I think a lot of the value of Canvas is not Canvas. It's that you're creating a team, and you're getting people out and motivated, and they're talking to their friends about it. Because you're not, with 600 people, door-knocking an even remotely meaningful section of a city the size of Calgary, which is about one and a half million people.
Carter
26:44
Well, to be honest, we didn't door-knock at all.
Carter
26:51
we did no canvassing
Zain
26:55
would say we're gonna leave that segment there i don't know
Carter
26:58
to jump in because the reason
Zain
27:01
floor was already what do you mean you have to jump in
Carter
27:03
in i have to jump back
Zain
27:03
you fucking stop i have to explain why
Zain
27:06
because the fucking ground is the ground the ground
Zain
27:10
listen to me when i'm talking zane
Carter
27:12
zane i will come
Carter
27:13
and i will kill you the
Carter
27:15
the ground has shifted i'll
Zain
27:17
i'll i'll leave my beeper
Corey
27:22
that's that's not gonna make any sense to anyone who listens to this even in a week if it made sense to them now here's
Carter
27:33
the ground has shifted we
Carter
27:34
we don't have the tools that we had in 2010 with nenshi's election we were able to get away with a social media media-focused campaign. In 2013 or 2021, we
Carter
27:49
we had to do a different type of campaign, but we didn't have to rely on canvassing. And now in 2024, 2025, with the complete destruction of social media and media, I'm
Carter
28:02
I'm of the opinion that every future campaign is going to have a a huge ground component.
Carter
28:07
My next campaigns will be ground focused, supported by an air war instead of an air war that's supported by ground.
Zain
28:19
Okay. Corey, finish this, finish the thought. I don't understand that part. Yeah. I
Corey
28:24
I just want to hear more. Keep
Corey
28:27
Keep going. Like, so you were so, literally not
Corey
28:31
not to pump your tires too much, but I'm going to, because then I'm going to take a knife to them and I'm going to stab them but yeah you are the most successful municipal campaign strategist in the province of alberta like
Corey
28:43
you've you've brought different multiple people from nowhere to the mayor's seat in the biggest municipality in alberta one of the biggest in the country
Corey
28:53
neither time did you do canvas but
Corey
28:56
but now two things
Carter
28:59
things changing right so we can't we can't take these things without putting
Carter
29:03
putting them together in some fashion first there's parties which means there's slates right
Carter
29:08
right so you have the ability to combine a ground game with an air war in a way that you didn't have that before right so you get to do that the
Carter
29:15
the second thing is
Carter
29:17
is that every other communication vehicle is falling apart in front of us we
Carter
29:22
we are watching social media disintegrate right? Jyoti Gondek's campaign was six tweet threads, one
Carter
29:30
one after the other, just going after Jason Kenney, going after Jason Kenney, going after Jason Kenney.
Carter
29:35
That was the primary vehicle that drove media engagement. It drove voter engagement, and it's completely unavailable to a modern candidate.
Carter
29:47
You may as well be bringing a chariot to a car race.
Carter
29:55
the meat we had a great media week last week for
Carter
29:58
for for for um brian tc
Corey
30:01
tc working on right
Carter
30:03
great media week there's
Carter
30:04
there's like four media that was a great fucking media week four i think we've gone with nenshi's first campaign zane i think we must have had 12
Zain
30:17
you you tell You tell me. Yeah, yeah. I wasn't around in the same capacity I was for seven years. No,
Carter
30:22
No, but I'm trying to include you. I don't want you to feel like
Zain
30:23
like- Oh, okay, okay. This is my show, but that's fine. Yeah, yeah. We're letting you ramble on. My
Carter
30:28
My point is this, you have to adapt to where you are. There is no one watching Fox News that hasn't made up their mind. There is no one who's watching MSNBC that hasn't made up their mind.
Carter
30:37
The slimmest of undecideds already exist. This massive media war is a fucking joke. The only thing left is to find on the seven-point Likerts, the fours and fives. Okay.
Corey
30:51
Okay. But can I just challenge that a little bit?
Corey
30:55
Let me ask you this. Let's just set aside the fact that you yourself have proven the ineffectiveness of Canvas multiple times.
Corey
31:02
Let's just do that. Let's
Zain
31:04
Let's just do that. Would you agree with that? Without the side swipe, do you agree that you have proven the ineffectiveness of canvassing in your previous mayoral victories? Mayoral,
Carter
31:14
Mayoral, and I would argue provincial as well.
Zain
31:16
Okay, so he agrees. Corey, keep going.
Corey
31:18
What is going on? But if
Corey
31:21
if you were charged with, okay, let's just do this right now. This is interesting to me.
Corey
31:27
Guys, we've got that $1.5 billion that Stephen was talking about. Yeah,
Zain
31:32
Yeah, that the Democrats
Corey
31:33
Democrats had. We can do whatever
Corey
31:36
whatever we need to get this forward. But the task that I am charging you both with right now is, God,
Corey
31:43
God, everyone's so polarized. We know if you're watching Fox News, you're locked in here. If MSNBC, you're locked in there. This election is decided by a very small group of undecideds and soft voters. Go find them.
Corey
31:57
And your answer is, I guess I'll just knock on every door. I
Carter
32:00
I don't think you're knocking on every door. You're not knocking on every door. You have a model that tells you which doors to go to. two, you don't go to the ones and twos, you don't go to the sixes and sevens, you go to the fours and fives.
Corey
32:14
That's interesting because that's actually not how canvases run usually. It's
Carter
32:18
It's not how canvases have run.
Corey
32:21
So you're actually talking about an entirely different approach to canvas. He's talking about like an undecided deep canvas model
Corey
32:27
in key areas. You're just going to go door to door to try to find the undecided people? Is that the best way to find undecided people? This
Carter
32:36
This election is going to be swung by what? 180,000 people total in
Carter
32:40
in the seven swing states?
Carter
32:43
I can find you 180,000 people.
Carter
32:46
I can find you 500,000 people in a strong model. With
Corey
32:48
With a tow, I can get you a tow.
Carter
32:50
We can find those people in a strong model.
Carter
32:58
to me after this municipal election. I will tell you how we did it.
Corey
33:04
oh wow that's clever the confidence the the
Corey
33:07
the ego on display yeah
Carter
33:10
yeah we did this didn't we do this last time we
Carter
33:12
we recorded all the
Corey
33:13
the way through actually we recorded all the way through yeah we
Carter
33:16
we recorded and then we were all like we're gonna cut it
Carter
33:18
all up and then we went that's
Zain
33:19
that's a lot of work yeah
Zain
33:20
we're like yeah we're gonna release it i remember we decided we're gonna release it on your one year anniversary of chief of staff and we
Zain
33:31
were gonna have a cake and everything and the show we actually had a netflix deal i don't even know about this it was a netflix canada deal but yeah they were they're ready to go belgica of
Zain
33:44
uh good carter's looking at his watch i am too cory what else uh concerns about uh concerns you why are you actually concerned heading into like give me give me actually like well because you you are actually an incredible aggregator of information and a good synthesizer of that information into knowledge so you
Zain
34:00
you you send us a lot of stuff what like
Zain
34:02
like makes you concerned heading into tuesday yeah
Corey
34:04
yeah fundamentally two different challenges one is the
Corey
34:10
the like the outcome of the night right yeah this is goes back
Corey
34:13
the question i just i don't have a lot of confidence that any of us should have a lot of confidence the election is very close donald trump has historically outperformed his his polls. That depresses me. And if he does it again, it could be a Donald Trump landslide. He could win by 100 electoral votes, just like that. Good. Does the
Carter
34:33
the tone of anybody's voice in this discussion suggest
Corey
34:39
So that's problem one.
Corey
34:44
even if he loses, he
Corey
34:46
has spent the last four years getting rid of all of the guardrails on american democracy so what does that look like over the next couple of months you
Corey
34:54
you know it's just it's i
Corey
34:56
like i like elections and i like the united states and i would like the united states to continue to have elections and this is all feeling very very
Corey
35:04
very precarious right now no
Carter
35:07
no one no one is arguing that point the
Carter
35:11
the the the the the whole point is how
Carter
35:14
how do you how do you win that how
Carter
35:17
how do you win when things are so fucking close that it's going to tilt on 180 000 people yeah
Corey
35:25
like we don't know like if there's a polling error it could go who
Corey
35:29
who knows it's possible pollsters have over corrected for the errors that they made last time right it's possible as they started weighing by um by education which they didn't previously do but trump taught them maybe that's something they've got to be looking out for they've now over corrected in a way that's going to miss this particular election and some of the dynamics at play with women, for example, and how they're reacting to the end of Roe v. Wade and how that continues to manifest in a lot of state actions that we've seen over the last bit. Now, that's the hopeful read. The hopeful read is there's something there that we saw a little bit in the 2022 midterms, which is the Democrats can outperform.
Carter
36:08
Zane, let me ask you a question.
Zain
36:10
Oh, sure. Yes, Carter. Yeah. Why
Carter
36:11
Why do we continue to say it's the education gap instead of saying it's the intelligence gap?
Zain
36:18
um because education is something that is formalized it's
Carter
36:22
it's a proxy for intelligence though is it not no
Carter
36:25
don't think so we
Carter
36:26
continue on the conversation here's the thing zane here's what i will say to you i
Carter
36:32
i am uh concerned
Carter
36:34
concerned that kamala harris is going to win as much as i'm concerned that trump is going to win why
Zain
36:40
why why does that concern you because
Carter
36:41
because the aftermath cory mentioned mentioned it earlier. He said that all the guardrails have been taken down. Those guardrails concerned the shit out of me.
Carter
36:52
I think that democracy only functions because we choose to let it function. It only functions when one of the candidates concedes. When the other candidate doesn't concede, I don't think democracy actually functions.
Carter
37:07
was held true, I think, in 2000 when Gore conceded. And when Trump didn't concede in 2020, I think that democracy's been in peril.
Zain
37:19
But Corey, talk to me about just the Trump path of victory alone. What about that concerns you? The fact that it's A, viable, and B, you said it could swing 100 ways, or do you feel like he's actually winning right now? There's a whole sub-narrative in the progressive universe right now that is is starting to say that part out loud over the last week, I'm not saying universally, but there's a lot of people starting to be like, Trump's got this thing, right? Like the Harry Entens of the world, the Nate Silvers with their gut feeling post in the New York Times of the world, right? Which is stupid because the guy is literally supposed to be rooted in data. But anyways, he gives us this, what I thought was a confirmation bias piece in my opinion. But Corey, do you feel like Trump is ahead here? here? And what do you think of that sub-narrative being spun out of progressives, or I shouldn't say progressives, but Democrats more specifically?
Corey
38:12
Yeah. It's hard to shake the feeling, right? Again, because it is so close and it's starting to feel like Harris has to run the gamut in a bunch of ways that seem unlikely, right? Like, oh, either take all of the South or or take the West and the North, the swing states like Michigan. I
Corey
38:31
don't know, man. They're all within 1% here. It's going to be interesting to see how she cobbles this all together, but it's not feeling very
Corey
38:39
very stable. Now, that said, it doesn't feel very stable for Trump either, but it
Corey
38:44
it just doesn't bode well, I think, given everything we've known about how Trump has performed relative to his expectations in the past. This would have to be different, and it could be different it absolutely could be different but there's a number of conditions that seem to be pushing against harris right now in unhelpful ways it's uh obviously actually we haven't talked a lot on this podcast about it but the challenges she is having uh with the muslim vote and pro-palestinian vote in michigan i think could really damage her in the polls the fact that arizona seems increasingly out of risk for risk for her is i think troubling if If you're a Democrats looking for a new coalition, if you're going to lose some of those Midwestern states, Georgia, not looking great. Although a bit of an assist there in terms of, uh, you know, some of the down ticket races, North Carolina, not looking great, but again, an assist with some of the down ticket races, one in particular in that case, it's,
Corey
39:41
it's, it's just, geez, man, like it's, it's not looking that great. It like all of them are just a tiny, tiny bit. it and um and
Corey
39:51
and you know when when when the stakes are what they are that's that's pretty tough which
Corey
39:56
which is again why we need steven to this
Carter
39:58
this is why i have to have a nervous poo all
Carter
39:59
all the time i mean
Zain
40:00
mean there is a few opportunities where like you know if they if they split um
Zain
40:05
um north carolina and pennsylvania that it comes down to the
Zain
40:09
the fun hand counting of nevada yeah
Zain
40:12
yeah um right and and that That could be your 2000s version of Florida. Well,
Zain
40:17
Well, and so even Pennsylvania,
Corey
40:17
Pennsylvania, you can't – as much as we all like walls, you sit there and you think, geez,
Corey
40:23
geez, maybe you should have gone with Shapiro. It could come down to Pennsylvania. It could come down to 1%.
Corey
40:29
And I don't know, man.
Corey
40:32
Easy to say these things with hindsight.
Zain
40:35
Carter, give me – I've got some quick rapid fires on here. here. What do you think of this whole garbage memification in the last five days here? So Tony Hinchcliffe gets on stage at the MSG Trump rally, calls Puerto Rico floating island of trash. Biden gaffes slash doesn't necessarily slash spaces out, tries to call Hinchcliffe garbage, but instead calls Trump supporters garbage. That's the non-charitable read.
Zain
41:07
Trump then shows up in a garbage truck with a high-vis vest at the rally. Trump supporters are now for Halloween dressing up as trash. And then there is now a, you
Zain
41:18
you called us garbage, but you said America was a garbage can. What the fuck is going on, Carter?
Carter
41:24
Well, what seems to be going on is that no one knows still how to deal with Trump. because normally you'd be staying away from uh this type of you know incendiary type of of comment but trump drives right in like literally drives right into the garbage can right like how how does this make sense for a um a candidate that's supposed to be you
Carter
41:51
in this to win this and he and he and he picks up you know he he goes against the type type and winds up embracing the garbage piece that that was going to be hurting him uh or supposed to be hurting him um i i just think that trump remains uh i don't know i don't want to call him a genius at this because i think that that's the wrong word but he he knows no shame and we've never had a
Carter
42:17
a completely shameless politician before who will turn right into the skid every time especially if the skids are right in his underwear that's
Corey
42:27
that's very graphic yeah
Carter
42:29
I'm in a graphic space today can
Corey
42:31
can I say like not to not to break my entirely negative worldview here but the one thing that makes me think maybe Harris is gonna do better than
Corey
42:41
than anybody hopes is how miserable Trump looks like he doesn't look well does he he doesn't look like his hand I'm
Zain
42:48
I'm like trying to get into the garbage truck well
Corey
42:49
well that was that was very weird that he reached out for the handle and and seemed to miss it by a good foot and then speaking of feet his like legs started doing some sort of weird shimmy but i mean the amount of orange spray tan he's wearing even by his standards he's rambling he looks horribly stressed he
Corey
43:09
he does not look like a man who feels very confident going into this final stretch see
Carter
43:14
see wherever the was this and now like a half an hour ago half hour ago and i wouldn't be sitting here clenching my sphincter
Corey
43:24
one's making you do that i'm
Carter
43:26
clenching my you're making me clench my sphincter
Zain
43:29
carter let's let's let's end let's end with what you wanted to talk about from the beginning after this meandering long um
Zain
43:35
um deep and baker ask yeah
Corey
43:39
daniel smith survive this weekend in red deer i
Carter
43:42
i don't think she's going to oh
Carter
43:44
you didn't want to lead with that
Carter
43:47
i wanted to but you guys fucking took me all over hell's half acre okay cory
Zain
43:51
cory call it call it the call this episode the 40 for a minute mark okay yeah
Zain
43:54
yeah good very good or
Zain
43:56
or or or whatever edit based on the f-bombs we've dropped uh and the and the live wherever it is just call it that uh
Zain
44:05
uh why what i
Carter
44:07
i well first of all what does survival look like what does she need to get cory
Zain
44:11
cory what is she publicly said she said she said something or something's been leaked public but like at least public two-thirds i i'm gonna throw it two-thirds does that sound right to you guys two-thirds what uh
Carter
44:21
uh joe clark had and gave it up because joe clark you
Carter
44:26
you know wanted to set a precedent for the rest of the world to be angry i think that two-thirds would be great i don't think she's going to get two-thirds
Corey
44:33
no come on i
Carter
44:34
i don't think she's going to get i need to
Corey
44:35
to hear this expand yeah keep keep going there's
Carter
44:38
there's a group of people who are organizing against you who are very good organizers are
Carter
44:45
they are in fact canvassing they're calling every single person who's on the registration list they've gotten the lists they know what they're doing they're doing the work and they're they're showing up there tomorrow night and they are going to push hard to get rid of danielle smith
Carter
44:59
in a way that we like even when we there was the get rid of joe of uh of ralph klein you remember remember that? I do. There wasn't a group of people pushing that. There were kind of people who were like hiding from that. They, oh, well, shh,
Carter
45:13
This is a, out in the open, we are talking about it. We are going to go after Danielle Smith and it is happening. Now,
Carter
45:21
even internally, I'm told, this is very closely sourced. Oh, okay.
Corey
45:26
From the DMs, yeah. yeah from
Carter
45:28
from the dms i'm told that uh she's got uh she internally is hoping for 60 a number that starts with a six okay
Carter
45:38
so i think she's gonna get she's gonna be lucky to get a number that starts with a six so
Zain
45:44
so here's a counterpoint she gets a number that starts with a six and she moves the fuck on i
Carter
45:50
i i point to two recent premiers she
Zain
45:52
she breaks the precedent she says fuck it i've got a number that starts with a six two
Carter
45:57
two recent premiers have had numbers that started with a seven so
Carter
46:01
so and they said fuck it so i'm gonna i'm gonna go for it when
Corey
46:05
when you say she's not surviving this you don't mean she's getting she's
Carter
46:11
she's gonna she's gonna be no did
Carter
46:14
did i mean did kenny even lose like i don't think anybody ever loses
Zain
46:17
these a two-pointer by him i think lost
Carter
46:22
net is he even human i mean did we do we even know i don't even know he
Carter
46:28
he got mad at me once for being do you want to talk about your radio appearance
Zain
46:30
appearance yeah was i hosting that show no
Carter
46:34
it was evan he got really mad at me because i said uh anything
Zain
46:36
anything that comes before a butt doesn't count you're replacing me on the show that's what happened yeah
Carter
46:41
yeah that was terrible uh
Carter
46:43
uh apparently you're not allowed to make points on evan solomon shows. That's what I've learned.
Corey
46:50
Okay. Where were we? I don't know. You think she doesn't survive the weekend.
Carter
46:56
I think that her numbers are going to be so low. It's
Zain
47:00
It's going to start with a six.
Carter
47:02
And if it starts with a six,
Carter
47:03
she's a dead woman walking.
Zain
47:06
don't think I believe that. Yeah, I'm not so
Zain
47:10
where's your head on this? You
Carter
47:11
You guys, you can be wrong. Corey, whatever you say, you can be wrong. just remember that okay all
Carter
47:16
just remember it's okay to be wrong okay so you've
Corey
47:19
you've been talking to people you're deep you're deep sources closely sourced closely sourced and they're hoping for a number that starts with six you also have been talking to people who have been canvassing calling around asking where the vote is yes sir where do they think the vote is i
Carter
47:35
i think well i think they think that they're gonna get the whole thing the whole enchilada i think they're gonna like actually
Corey
47:40
actually technically so why
Carter
47:41
why do you think there's any way
Corey
47:44
way why do they think that and why do you think they're nuts why
Carter
47:47
why do i because no one gets fucking defeated in these except mulcair who's
Carter
47:51
who's weak and thin-skinned is
Corey
47:53
is it because of the fundamental flaws with canvas just out of curiosity i'm just not
Carter
47:57
not because of the fundamental flaws with canvas
Corey
47:59
canvas the selection bias of who would answer the phone jesus christ
Carter
48:06
no i one drum you've got one drum in your house and you keep hitting it i'm
Corey
48:09
i'm sincerely interested in this because i got to tell you this
Corey
48:14
this feels even by ucp standards tame the the amount of chatter and the grumbling ahead of time and and the yeah i agree with you guys in the wrong circles the very are we very what do you think the number is
Carter
48:25
is going to start with corey mr hogan if that's your real name it's
Corey
48:30
my real name uh i i think it
Zain
48:33
with a six but i actually i think a six is fine i think anything with the six is fine i
Zain
48:36
i kind of with with cory i think it starts with the six two and i think she's just going to be like great yeah thank you for
Corey
48:41
for your support you guys
Carter
48:42
guys on crack cocaine no
Zain
48:45
i think you're talking about era changes in political strategy and tactics i
Zain
48:50
think we're talking about era changes and how to keep a coalition together totally honest
Carter
48:55
honest to god what's
Carter
48:57
what's it like living in your world is the sky pink in your world like what colors do you
Corey
49:02
what do you think happens What happens next? Like that's... What do you think happens next? I
Corey
49:06
I think the caucus starts to
Carter
49:09
How? No, fuck off. Seriously? This is what's going to happen. I don't think that she's got her caucus. I think that the caucus breaks into three groups. A group that is loyal to her, a group that is further to the right of her, and a group that thinks that she's going to cost them the next election because she's given into these wackadoodles. This is... And somewhere along the way, this is going to be the end of her. that is what i believe that is what i've put down cory write it down
Carter
49:41
this is what i want to have played back at my funeral
Carter
49:51
please that's it i'm kind of done okay you
Corey
49:54
you didn't want to boldly restate because
Corey
49:56
because you didn't really even state anything you're just like it could be problem down the road
Zain
50:04
That's true. It wasn't... You very
Corey
50:07
very forcefully said, not so much. I just got to... You
Carter
50:12
We should not have done this podcast tonight. We're not in the headspace for this podcast.
Carter
50:17
This is what we've learned.
Zain
50:19
Final question for you, Corey.
Zain
50:22
you could ghost anyone in Canadian politics, who would it be?
Zain
50:30
Yeah, okay. We're going to leave it there. That's a wrap on episode. 1833 of the strategies I hope that was worth your money people I really
Zain
50:41
my name is Zane Velji with me as always Corey Hogan Stephen Carter this might be our best episode ever
Carter
50:46
might be we'll see you next time