Transcript
Zain
0:01
This is a strategist episode 1831. My name is Zain Velji. With me as always, Corey Hogan, Stephen Carter. Guys, you are on the clock. Oh, no.
Carter
0:10
So do you want to hear about how the
Carter
0:12
the AFL ended or what do you want to hear? Hey, did the AFL
Corey
0:15
AFL end? I want
Carter
0:15
want to know how
Corey
0:16
how it ended, actually. Is Australian football over forever? My Brisbane Lions won.
Corey
0:21
I thought you were a Swans fan.
Zain
0:24
Swans fan. I was a Swans fan.
Zain
0:26
Zain was a Swans fan. If you say Swans fan fast enough, it sounds like Swanson. like ron swanson is
Zain
0:31
is that you know like okay ron swanson
Zain
0:33
swanson overrated or underrated tv character um over over oh
Zain
0:38
oh i'm going with under it didn't it didn't age particularly well but i still think underrated tv character i
Corey
0:43
i think of the tv dinners when i think of swanson what
Corey
0:46
what about you stephen you're
Corey
0:47
you're a man yeah that's exactly
Carter
0:49
exactly what i could because with the uh with the little apple pie yeah a
Carter
0:52
a little less it's
Corey
0:53
it's like a cobbler you know it wasn't quite a pie yeah
Corey
0:56
good it was like like the ingredients of an apple pie all mushed together and all
Carter
0:59
all mushed together yeah the swanson
Zain
1:00
swanson tv dinner was a delicacy uh from the south asian community we would only see that as as a climb up the ranks i know you guys were enjoying middling poverty with your swanson dinners but that was actually a high watermark for us uh
Carter
1:15
was a special day when we got those you know what also
Zain
1:18
also was a high watermark being able to drink cans of something we would always have bottles more efficient more economical corey here just flexing a can that's not what we do in the northeast corey it's all about i want you to i want you to get your your your sparkling water from a bottle like a four liter bottle not like like a
Zain
1:33
a 750 milliliter glass bottle hey zane
Corey
1:35
zane you said we
Zain
1:36
the clock right you you're going i stopped the clock because i had things to say now i had social commentary to make and
Zain
1:43
and sharp social commentary here's what i want to do there's so much going on i want to go through three topics uh for 12 minutes each i'm going to to put you on the clock, and then we're going to spend the final 12 minutes with
Zain
1:57
with a topic of your choice.
Zain
1:59
choice. It could be a net new topic we haven't discussed, or if we want to spend 12 more minutes on one of the three we have, we're going to do it, and we're going to start right now. Carter, 12 minutes have begun, and we're going to start in British Columbia.
Zain
2:12
Echoes of 2017, in a sense, it is 46-45-2, 46 for the NDP, 45 for John Rusted, 2 for the Greens, Carter, what
Zain
2:23
what happens? Give us a sense of what happens.
Carter
2:27
Well, I think that the recount and the final count is on the 26th of October. That's going to be the day when the 49,000 additional ballots get put into play and we see whether or not anything changes. I saw today an analysis that showed that most of the time the NDP does quite quite well on these, on these mail-in ballots and the like. So I would imagine that we will be seeing a very tight NDP government that
Carter
2:56
that is held together by the Greens. I don't see them picking up another seat. I
Carter
3:00
I don't see it becoming a majority, but
Carter
3:02
but I do think that they will,
Carter
3:05
they'll have the Greens as the, always
Carter
3:08
always there, always there to be supportive. Because I can't see the greens supporting the conservatives that to me would be um
Carter
3:15
too far it would turn them from green to blue and uh no one wants that and no one
Zain
3:20
one could you see the green supporting the conservatives or are you also with carter on this and what happens it's
Corey
3:25
it's pretty tough to imagine the greens supporting the conservatives when the conservatives this particular bc conservative party seems to be so afield of where um you know of where the greens are on on their fundamental issue that being the climate right yeah of course but stranger things have happened and politics make strange bedfellows i i think it's unlikely i think it might even be unlikely that there is a really solid confidence and supply agreement just given the composition of things it might just be issue to issue and and writing this thing down to the wire or at least that being the drama but behind the scenes of being managed a bit more i
Corey
4:03
i mean everything steven said is is correct in the the sense that it
Corey
4:08
it is most likely- Here
Zain
4:10
Here comes the but, Carter. Just wait for it. Yeah. It
Corey
4:12
It is most likely to be the NDP who
Corey
4:15
who either hold their seats, well, hold their seats. He's also right that there's not really any in play for them. There's a couple that they lead by just a couple dozen votes that they could conceivably lose, but the
Corey
4:27
the evidence suggests that they won't just based on how these polls have gone, these recounts have gone, these additional votes have come in for the ndp generally in the past but there's
Corey
4:40
there's a big but here stephen
Corey
4:42
stephen carter did predict the ndp would win and um also
Corey
4:48
also i think he does owe an apology to
Corey
4:50
to the people of bc because he said it would be like 10 seats i seem to recall no
Zain
4:58
yeah i feel like i feel like it It was double digits. And even if it wasn't, it was. It was. So, honestly, it was.
Carter
5:04
Listen, Carter. This is upsetting. So
Carter
5:05
it does feel like. What a waste of one of our minutes. Yeah,
Zain
5:08
Yeah, no. We've got nine minutes on the clock. Corey, I get it. We will draw your point to this natural conclusion, unless you had some blinding insight that you wanted to. No, I just wanted to repeat it. Okay, thanks for running out the
Corey
5:17
the clock a little bit. Yeah,
Zain
5:18
Yeah, no, fuck you. Here's what we're going to do. Corey, what are the NDP thinking about right now? And what are they strategically devising, if anything, in this interim period? Carter, same question to you in a second about what's going on in conservative land right now from your perspective or what they should be thinking about. Corey?
Corey
5:36
Well, I think both parties probably read things as we've laid them out that it's likely to be an NDP government, likely to be a minority government propped up by the Greens, but also likely they'll be back at the polls before you know it because this will be a largely unstable situation for a ton of reasons. reasons and that means they are already thinking about the next election and if they're not they're fools and i don't think either of the parties are fools i i think the two major parties are are starting to think okay how do we position how do we make sure we move forward and how do we make sure we're election ready which also includes mundane things like money which i'm told are the currency of politics so it is it's true i do believe that's likely how things are going to play I'll tell you this, even if by some sort of crazy
Corey
6:21
crazy miracle, the BC Conservatives managed to flip these two seats that are in play here, right? The one in Syria.
Corey
6:32
It's not a stable situation. They'll have like a one seat majority. And we've seen how that plays out. Again, BC in 2017 gives us some- What
Zain
6:41
What happened to the speaker here? here explain to our listeners what happens i don't want to go like
Corey
6:46
run the tape but like that's just like there's so much that's been discussed about it but like it is a challenge because if the speaker come like if the speaker comes from the conservative ranks they basically don't really have a majority except they do because they will have enough seats with the speaker to pass confidence votes because the speaker votes with them for confidence but the speaker votes against them for non-confidence because the speaker votes for the status quo in all other situations. I don't want to live this again. We might all have to live this again. But it's just like the most tedious pain in the ass existence for political parties. So this is where I say deeply unstable, because it also gives this untested conservative caucus, this untested conservative party, it gives every fucking member a veto on the government existing. And just look south of the
Zain
7:34
the border. It's like the Matt Gaetz situation. Yes, it
Corey
7:36
it is. And so
Corey
7:37
so I look south of the border and see exactly what that kind of hostage taking could lead to. So there's going to be an election in the next year, I think, regardless.
Corey
7:46
Maybe they can ride it out for two if the Greens are willing to play ball and sign some sort of a support agreement. But I truly cannot see it going much further than that.
Zain
7:55
Carter, what's happening in conservative land? And are the knives out for Rustead? Or are they putting up banners to celebrate his accomplishment?
Carter
8:03
I think they're probably putting up banners. I I mean, the knives coming out for a person who looks like he's going to be able to win the next election that's going to happen in the next two years because Corey Hogan said so, that's probably going to be enough. I think that Corey's right. You know, the challenges of, you know, how the speaker gets selected, how all these ins and outs and the workings of government, I think are going to be very tedious for British Columbians. I don't think that they're going to be looking for this government to fall and to go back and have another election. I think the leader that's probably in the most hurt
Carter
8:43
hurt right now is David Eby, not John Rustad. I think that David Eby is the one who couldn't lead a majority government back to a majority. And that
Carter
8:54
that is a failing on his part. And if he doesn't come up with a way to create a stable government, what I would be doing, The earlier question you asked is, what would he be doing? Well, I'd
Carter
9:06
I'd be looking to see if there's any way of prying a Green Party member from the Green Party into the New Democrats for a cabinet seat. Those would be the two phone calls I'd be making. Because one move and all of a sudden you've got yourself a much more stable government for the low, low price of the Minister of Sport.
Carter
9:28
you know, I'd be making that deal all day
Corey
9:30
day long. that but i i understand the logic i just think a
Corey
9:34
a that that introduces a it's not going to happen right i i just don't think that that's on the table it's happened before people can be bought i guess but b why would you pay that price it doesn't add enough stability in order to make it worth your while in my opinion you know the greens
Corey
9:53
greens are in a bit of a box it's pretty hard for them to prop up the conservatives. It's not that hard for them to bring down the NDP, but it's hard for them to prop up the conservatives. And going back to the polls, again, money is the currency of politics, I'm told.
Corey
10:07
I don't think that the Greens are prepared to run another election at this particular moment, especially- Without a leader. Well, they have a leader. They may keep her. She's not in the legislature.
Corey
10:19
Yeah, I mean, it's a challenging situation for them. And I think that's just the reality. We did talk last time about Rustad maybe being replaced if he loses because of this one and done. I think the composition of the legislature here, the composition makes that almost
Corey
10:37
You know, A, he came so close to winning and B, they're going to have to stay on election footing for the next bit. So there's just not going to be that natural pressure against him until the
Corey
10:46
the next crazy thing happens. Three
Zain
10:48
Three minutes on the clock. Steven
Zain
10:49
Steven Carter, give me your one thing that you're watching. Corey, same to you. And then we'll move on to our next one.
Carter
10:54
The one thing I'm watching is the cabinet construction. Who's going to be pissed off? Is there anybody in the NDP who looks like they may fold, walk over to the Greens and try and get some more power that way? This is one of those situations where the group of people who are in power isn't necessarily the majority. It tends to be the group of people who are holding the sway. And, um, if I was a pissed off NDP or I might step out and, uh, and jump into a green caucus that, that I can make, you know, maybe become leader of, um,
Carter
11:28
um, there's all kinds of different things that there could be a play. I suspect though, what's going to happen is the most boring route. Um, David Eby is going to form a cabinet. It's going to be a relatively strong, uh, government and it will do what it does. Um, and it will try and win Surrey and Richmond back.
Corey
11:47
Corey, what are you looking for?
Corey
11:49
I'm looking for any, I mean, you know what? The other thing I'll say is because of how close it is, I think the BC United Party is just done, done. Their independence did so poorly and arguably the best thing you can say is they maybe held the conservatives from a very slight majority. I mean, maybe you want to interpret it that maybe their votes would have come elsewhere. but because of the setting i i think that it's just over for them because of where we are it's just over for them i
Corey
12:19
i think and that's what i'll be watching i'll be watching for any signs of life from bc united carter
Zain
12:25
carter one minute 40 on the clock i want to discuss this you mentioned it we have to do it i'll go moderators privilege and give us an extra two minutes on this topic um it's like extra time it's like it's like soccer yeah this is good moderate privilege that's what it's called this is a very fancy it's a very fancy setup ask the questions
Carter
12:40
questions aim we only got two minutes left okay
Zain
12:42
me get to the shortest route uh what's going on with asian people are
Zain
12:45
are they are they conservative now have
Zain
12:48
have they always been no
Carter
12:48
no they're not what's happening someone
Zain
12:50
someone who's like someone who's worked in surrey this was surprising to many and there's a lot of commentary although white people on tv can't say this um being like wait have they always been social conservatives like what's going on here what's happening with brown people carter as the whisperer of all things asia uh in asian population please light on us well
Carter
13:09
well first of all let me just say i'm not i'm not the greatest expert i'm just one of the greatest experts okay and you're
Zain
13:15
you're the whitest greatest i'm
Carter
13:17
i'm the whitest of all the experts in
Zain
13:18
in this but correct no
Carter
13:19
no i mean the surrey police force is still an issue yeah right uh brenda what's her last name brenda brenda annoying woman who's the mayor of uh the mayor of surrey continues to bang on her drum to uh try and keep the RCMP. The BCNDP said no and moved to continuing the transition to the Surrey Police Force. That is a hugely unpopular decision that Brenda has turned into a significant weight around the neck of the BCNDP. So I suspect that that has more to do with that municipal issue than anything
Zain
14:03
here's our two minutes. We can talk about it.
Carter
14:05
It's Brenda Locke, by the way. Brenda Locke. Thank you for that, Carter.
Zain
14:08
What's going on? Any thoughts that you may have around Asian populations, at least from what we have seen in Surrey and Richmond? They became the de facto battlegrounds in
Corey
14:19
some way, but I'm curious if you have any
Zain
14:21
any thoughts around the broader ethnic vote, as it was called once back
Corey
14:25
back in the day. Yeah. I don't know if I'm close enough to the ground to have personal thoughts, but I'll share a thought that was given to me by an NDP organizer that I was talking to after the election.
Corey
14:35
And they said, Christ, I don't know how we became a party of rich white people, right? And there is this sense that perhaps the NDP's base has fundamentally shifted away from that working class, ethnically diverse core. Multiracial. Exactly. Even what you would imagine even in a US Democrat setting. Listen, BC is a quirky place and BC has got a lot of trust fund kids, but I'm not really sure it's a rock on which you want to build your government.
Corey
15:04
It is something that I think that the BC NDP do need to think about pretty hard over the next bit. They need to have a broader base than they had. this is like this shouldn't have been that close i mean everybody's going to be saying that and it feels painfully obvious but there was there was a lot of baggage with rustad this was a new party that didn't exist with rustad and the bc conservatives and if the bc ndp pull it off which it looks like they will it'll be by the skin of their teeth and there's a certain exhaustion that comes with being in government for a while got it sure but i wouldn't want to be sitting there if i were them in 10 years and say jesus the warning signs were all there in 2024 and we did nothing about it and so i do think that one of the things they're going to need to work on over that next year two years is shoring up expanding out coalitions
Corey
15:53
coalitions shrink when you're in government over time you've got to put in the work to grow them we're
Zain
15:59
we're going to leave that particular segment there carter i'm going to put 12 minutes on the clock let's talk about our friend mr justin trudeau Because if we are to read the headlines, everything will happen and his leadership is not in danger or anything is possible tomorrow. And then also ministers coming out from the Trudeau government calling this everything from garbage, this revolt we're talking about, the 30-ish MPs in the open letter calling this garbage all the way to recently hearing François-Philippe Champagne calling it something like, well, you know, they may have legitimate concerns. concerns wide variety of responses from cabinet ministers although most i would say gravitating towards the shut the fuck up this is like this is our guy carter
Zain
16:45
has any of the arithmetic changed has any of the dynamics changed from the last time we talked about this now that we're in the week perhaps in the 48 hour period the 24 hour period before this conversation with the leader happens
Carter
17:00
Well, I mean, I think that this is fascinating because at this point, almost everything that we've discussed has come true. We're seeing bigger numbers being discussed. We've got a group of people who seem to have held together in the face of ministers saying that it's garbage, in the face of ministers not jumping on board. This is a group that may fall apart before tomorrow morning's caucus meeting i mean we don't know because you know we're not in the room we don't get to see how these things unfold but um
Carter
17:35
um all it takes is one or two people to start to fold and the whole thing folds like a cheap pup tent so
Carter
17:41
so i'm anticipating uh
Carter
17:42
uh if it doesn't fold then
Carter
17:45
then uh if the if this actually does go forward um there has to be consequences right
Carter
17:51
right like i think that this is the challenge
Carter
17:54
challenge for Prime Minister Trudeau. Prime
Carter
17:57
Prime Minister Trudeau is either going to need to step away, or
Carter
18:00
or he's going to need to think of some sort of consequence that doesn't cost him his government.
Carter
18:06
you kick one or two of the troublemakers out? And
Carter
18:08
And if you do kick one or two of the troublemakers out, do
Carter
18:11
do you lose up to 30 MPs who go and sit in a separate liberal caucus, Marcus, a
Carter
18:16
a la Joe Clark of the DRC.
Zain
18:19
Corey, we know one thing that has not happened because we can only see what's happened publicly is that Trudeau has not made any public concessions thus far. And you guys both last episode suggested that that would not be the case. You do anything like that on the back end of a meeting. So we know that. We also know that you've also had an additional dynamic added, which is the alternatives have presented themselves, whether strategically or opportunistically.
Zain
18:42
Right? Right. So the Christy Clarks and now the Mark Carney's once again, the Carney clock, you know, he shows up every every six months and he's back again to kind of say, you know, I'd be interested.
Zain
18:53
So that's also happened. Has the arithmetic or the dynamics changed now that we're in the week from your perspective, Corey?
Corey
18:59
So reporting is there's 30 something MPs who have signed on at this point. Stephen's right. Those numbers can end up being pretty soft when push comes to shove. but we'll see i mean people are still saying 30 today we have been sitting on this number or some variant of it for a while like a lifetime in politics you know we were talking about it last episode i mean like this
Corey
19:23
we were talking about 20 the week before we're not impressed anymore they're not impressed anymore but it's fucking huge like that's a huge percent of the caucus and it does demand a response to your point that this is not the the kind of thing where if these 30-some MPs hold together, that the prime minister can ignore. That's almost impossible. And I think if it spills out into the public of at
Corey
19:46
at a caucus meeting,
Corey
19:47
one in four caucus members effectively, more than that when you consider the ones that are not in cabinet, had
Corey
19:54
had problems, that's got some stopping power. That could significantly change Canadian politics in ways that I think we
Corey
20:02
we might have trouble processing right now. i mean us i mean the caucus i mean people are just too close to politics because it's pretty significant and i think we dismiss its significance at our peril i think the prime minister dismisses the significance at his peril so
Corey
20:17
so uh that's the main thrust for me like when this comes out into when there's a news event where we're not just reading about this in the hill times and vague reporting yes
Corey
20:26
yes i am very curious to see how canadians react to it because it's very very big and uh and that's the fundamental for me now one of the things that i think has become very clear to me is um is
Corey
20:41
is that there's not going to be shortage of contenders for this job at this point i'm not going to name names but i've heard about cabinet ministers calling around saying oh you know maybe i might be interested in oh
Corey
20:52
by the way in addition
Zain
20:52
addition to the two names i've mentioned yeah have you heard about have
Corey
20:55
have you heard about this angle or that angle and almost kind of coaching them from the sides obviously
Corey
21:00
obviously we've got the christy clark example fascinating and probably worth its own 12 minutes down the road and um and of course mark carney as a potential almost uh approved air would really change i think some of the conversation around here but
Corey
21:16
yeah i mean we are now at the moment where it's going to be something or nothing and uh that might sound like a dodge but it's the reality of these moments it's the power of the 11th hour it's how people get closer to a deal and how people lose their nerve and i guess we'll just find out with the rest of the world tomorrow morning but um i
Corey
21:37
i mean this is it's
Corey
21:39
it's crazy we're here right
Corey
21:41
right like we are we're kind of numb to it but it's crazy we're here i
Zain
21:46
think we're numb to it for multiple reasons including the the eyeballs that are being paying attention to the drama down south uh for the for those political watchers and then the insanity down there which which we'll talk about in a second carter uh cory mentions it 11th hour and he also mentioned the word lose i want to actually use that as a frame for my next question how can each side fuck this up in the 11th hour start with the prime minister and his team what are the strategic fuck-ups that are the risks that he has and start it with the the the the small but large but potentially growing um um 30 uh caucus members how could they fuck this up talk to me about both well the
Carter
22:23
the prime minister fucks us up by singling out people and trying to make examples of them uh
Carter
22:29
uh if he is you know for example decides that he's going to kick a cabinet minister to
Carter
22:34
to this to the to the side or if he decides that he's going you know the the full-throated support wasn't full-throated enough or if he decides that there's going to be a couple people who wind up outside of caucus caucus. I
Carter
22:46
I think that that type of harsh pushback could
Carter
22:48
could be too much. I think you need to stomp it down, but not stomp it down so hard that you break things. This is a small caucus. It is going to be really difficult to walk that line, but he's going to have to find a way to stay in his position, if that's what he ultimately chooses to do, without
Carter
23:09
without causing bodies to fall.
Carter
23:12
And that's going going to be, I don't know exactly how he does that. I think that, um,
Carter
23:18
you know, when you've got open revolt, uh,
Carter
23:20
uh, the tendency is to, uh,
Carter
23:22
uh, to, to try and stomp it completely out. And I,
Carter
23:27
he just doesn't have that kind of runway. Um,
Carter
23:29
Um, so I'm, I'd be very interested to see how he actually handles that. And in terms of the, the,
Carter
23:35
the, the rebels or whatever we're going to call them, they, they
Carter
23:39
they fall apart just by losing their nerve,
Carter
23:41
right? Five people decide tomorrow morning that that they just can't stand at the microphone. Just straight up cold feet you.
Carter
23:49
the whole thing falls apart.
Carter
23:51
If you start losing four or five people, this
Carter
23:57
goes from being a revolution to being three people standing at a microphone trying to convince
Carter
24:03
convince the prime minister to do something he's not going to do.
Zain
24:06
Corey, how does a PM fuck this up? How do the caucus revolters fuck this up?
Corey
24:10
I think he fucks it up by taking an action that antagonizes people. I think Stephen's right. I have to feel that some of the commentary we've seen in the media and amongst the pundits saying, oh, he might kick people out. He might set an example of the ringleaders. I get it. I'm not even sure. I wouldn't recommend that that message bleed out myself, but I don't think he can do it. I think that's the kind of thing you do to make people lose their nerve at the 11th hour. But when you're sitting there in a room, you do not want to be the guy, unless they are totally isolated, unless it's clear only one person's willing to speak for this group, do
Corey
24:47
do you want to do that? and even then it's like hey listen man i just don't think they're with you right and we we should have a talk about it but ultimately being in a caucus is a choice and you have choices you know like
Corey
25:00
there's maybe softer ways you can do this but let me just say this right i
Corey
25:04
i feel like the prime minister has the numbers just based on the reporting like if we're going to do just a straight up vote of the of the liberal caucus if i were him i would be another
Corey
25:14
another way you could fuck this up i guess a way to answer your question is by letting the conversation and the debate and the acrimony become so poisonous and so brutal that you're um you lose even when you win so i think that perhaps what he needs to do what he should be considering what his team should be considering you know what i think would be a bit of an interesting power move i want to test this on you too everybody
Corey
25:37
everybody walks into the national caucus meeting there's
Corey
25:39
there's that silence there's that tense conversation you know the muttering oh what the hell's gonna happen it's gonna be an interesting conversation oh what do you think's gonna go on here oh blah blah blah uh there's a couple of staff in the room who would naturally be there to support everybody knows they'll be kicked out for the in-camera discussion prime minister opens the meeting or caucus chair opens i don't know how they actually run it but then he says okay we're
Corey
26:01
we're gonna have a vote and
Corey
26:03
and he gives them the ballot right away should the prime should i reside none of the conversation has happened No chance of the poison. And when the vote's done, we're
Corey
26:12
we're going to have the conversation either way, but
Corey
26:15
but let's have the vote.
Carter
26:20
I think that that's his great... If he holds the vote, I don't think he gets through the day. You
Corey
26:25
You don't think he gets through the day? I think he's got the
Carter
26:27
the numbers. I don't think he gets through the day. Because
Carter
26:29
Because I think that if it's a secret ballot and
Carter
26:31
and those ballots are marked in secret, that people are going to ultimately take their own futures
Carter
26:36
futures to heart. and i think that they're going to say no they're
Corey
26:40
they're going to kick him i think he wins two to one easy maybe even three to one why
Zain
26:44
why i'll bet you nothing
Zain
26:46
psychological but i don't think he allows it to happen but to talk to me about what psychological dimension you're playing into cory or like what sort of uh what your thinking is or what you think the thinking would be of caucus without any discussion to have this vote i assume you think it's a show of strength but walk me through let's
Corey
27:01
let's just say that for start i mean we talked about this a couple of episodes ago what What I would be really quite obsessed with if I was in the prime minister's office is a very good whip count, understanding exactly where we are. And if I did think that we were going to get two thirds or more, if I was in the prime minister's office, I would do this because you don't know how the day is going to unfold. You don't know how the conversation is going to play out. And you
Corey
27:24
know what the vote is right there. And if you have the vote right there, you confirm the vote. you then after having won you still show the magnanimity by having the conversation and then you make those um gives
Corey
27:38
gives i guess we've been talking about them as you make the gives then you make the staff changes you make the caucus to cabinet changes that you need to make and um and
Corey
27:47
and that is how i would play it if i thought i had the numbers yeah
Carter
27:51
yeah but the different difficulty there is you think you have the numbers that's where everything falls apart hard.
Carter
27:56
Everybody's going to tell you, yes, sir. Yes, sir. We love you, sir.
Carter
27:59
Until such time as they get to mark their ballot. It's the privacy of the ballot that
Carter
28:05
that makes it different. If it's just a show of hands, sure, he's going to win.
Carter
28:09
But if it's a secret ballot- Yeah, a secret
Carter
28:11
Get on. It's all over.
Carter
28:13
It's all over. See, and maybe it is.
Zain
28:15
is. That is our 12 minutes right there. I'm going to let you respond, Corey, and then we're going to move on, and then you can decide if you want to spend another 12 minutes. No, man, this isn't PTI.
Zain
28:23
minute. We move on.
Zain
28:24
move on. do this bullshit where we go rules i will be uh inserting moderator's privilege uh at the end carter okay let's move on let's get a nice palate cleanser um donald trump wants to fuck arnold palmer uh it seems like he
Corey
28:38
admires his dick let's not overstate things and
Corey
28:41
and he's dead so
Carter
28:44
he admired okay god carter i missed something over
Zain
28:46
over the weekend did
Corey
28:47
did you actually i'm
Zain
28:48
i'm not even gonna put us on the clock cory can you explain to carter what happened uh and then i will start the clock i
Corey
28:53
don't think i can or will yeah
Zain
28:55
yeah haven't decided which
Zain
28:56
which at a rally in pennsylvania i believe it's the birthplace of arnold palmer he's donald trump went on a 10-minute rant about arnold palmer in the showers
Corey
29:05
showers people would be like well take a look at that guy yeah
Zain
29:08
yeah i love i love women but arnold palmer man that guy is amazing so um so that guy that guy um is uh is ahead in some national polls and is even in multiple swing states, why Kamala Harris and her advisors are worried that the vibes might be wearing thin in the final two weeks, although they've done quite a bit for her in terms of getting her a significant amount of both money and notoriety and a solid convention. But she seems to be stuck on a couple of things. Perhaps, Carter, we may look back on botching a question when she was asked around how her presidency is going to be different than Joe Biden's. She's tried to clean that up in the days after, but her answer during the moment was not much different, which is not a great answer. Many ways to answer that. That's how she chose to answer it. I'm paraphrasing, of course. And then you have Donald Trump doing Donald Trump things and not necessarily being held accountable for them because they're so voluminous. They're so all over the place. And you, of course, have the added dynamic on the Kamala Harris side, Carter. I'm just throwing just a few things on the list of the Michigan politics with the Arab Muslim population. We had another sort of chapter written today by kicking out some Palestinian Americans from a rally. Carter, this is even.
Zain
30:26
even. No one is willing to predict this unless you're on Polymarket now, which is now a right-wing cesspool of people throwing their money in the shitter.
Zain
30:36
I don't even know where to start. I just want to discuss this topic. Where do you want to to start. We've got 12 minutes and I'm going to start those 12 minutes now. Give me a tip. Here's where I'm going to start. Get me started.
Carter
30:47
The disconnect that exists, the split ticket voting that is going to be required, the disconnect in people's minds to vote for, is it Stein who's running in North Carolina over Robinson?
Carter
31:03
He's winning by 12 points and yet North Carolina is a toss-up.
Carter
31:06
Every candidate running running for Senate in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, Nevada, Arizona. The
Carter
31:15
The Democrats are winning all of them.
Carter
31:18
We're seeing massive splits between the Democrats at the Senate level and the Democrats at the top of the ticket. And it's for
Carter
31:29
the same reasons. Robinson in North Carolina is a a lunatic. Well,
Carter
31:33
Well, so is Trump.
Carter
31:35
They're the same guy. Okay. One of them is black and the other one's white, but still they're the same guy. They say the same bullshit. They talk the same way. And one of them is going down by a 12 point defeat. And the other one is tied across
Carter
31:51
across all the swing states.
Carter
31:55
That's one thing I want to talk about. The second thing I want to talk about is, does ground actually matter will
Carter
32:00
will it matter that kamala harris has put together the the best ground game of these two elections will it matter that the voters that that are tending to vote for her tend to vote and
Carter
32:12
and the voters that trump is counting on tend not to vote because all of a sudden he's got young black males he's
Carter
32:19
he's got young male black people what is going on how is this all fitting together how is this actually going to turn an election how did
Carter
32:31
did i say that wrong
Zain
32:32
wrong young to young young black people i didn't say that right you got it right the first time and then you added more words for no reason so
Carter
32:42
so he's got these young black guys no
Carter
32:44
no i'm doing this wrong again i did it wrong this
Zain
32:46
this is steven carter can
Carter
32:47
can we edit this where are we in the 12 minutes we We can't, we can't, but Corey's
Zain
32:51
Corey's rolling his eyes. The integrity of the club. And I'm, I'm, I just, just for the record, I'm gleeful.
Zain
32:56
Okay. Just so you know, I
Zain
32:58
I am, I am very gleeful. Thanks Zane.
Zain
33:01
Okay. Carter, you want to talk about the ground game. You also want to talk about, um, you know, the disconnect on the split ticket side. Corey, what do you want to talk about? Where is your head at as you consume this quite literally two weeks before the day?
Corey
33:12
Well, I, I mean, you, there is a tightening of the poles. There's no question about it. if you look at these aggregators you see it coming down to you know less than two instead of being more than three a little bit ago but that's not a huge difference i guess is the thing i want to talk about and so for me as much as anything i want to talk about the vibes you know live by the vibes die by the vibes seems to be the story here but you
Corey
33:34
you know run the tape when when everybody was elated and thinking that this was the greatest campaign since sliced bread you're
Corey
33:42
you're talking about It was about the
Corey
33:43
the same in the polls, right? And so I do think one of the interesting things in this whole story is the psychology of it all, right? And how much psychology is affecting our feelings about this race as we go through. And as we've said many times, there
Corey
34:00
there is that lingering concern that Trump is going to outperform his polls because he did the last two elections, he was on the ticket, right? Right. So the vibes is for me, I think the most interesting story, because anything else is arguing about one point in polling, which is like nothing. It means nothing. There's no way you can say with accuracy that that one point is real or not when you're looking at the national polls. And the swing state polls in a lot of cases are not better. Like you look at it and it's like, oh, look at the average. North Carolina, less than one point lead for Harris. Georgia, Georgia, less than one point lead for Trump. Arizona, less than one point lead for Harris. They're so fucking close, I guess is my point. We can dissect it and we can pretend it's meaningful, but it's not. And so we're all living and dying vibes right now.
Zain
34:48
who does that favor cory if we're living and dying vibes right now vibes was definitely a kamala harris engineered sort of campaign strategy is
Zain
34:59
is advantage still to her in that in that regard from like a a political strategy perspective can she revive that or does she to your point not to say you made this point is she dying by it right now um
Corey
35:12
um i think she's dying by it a bit right now if i'm being honest although i'd be curious to hear your takes because i could also see a case where if people are the right level of concern you know there's that old alley adage you know you campaign like you're one vote behind if everybody is really feeling like they're just a little bit behind that might not be the worst feeling for democrats to have and if republicans are feeling hey fucking polymarket says this thing's a lock maybe
Corey
35:39
maybe that's not the worst thing
Zain
35:40
to 65, 35 luck. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.
Carter
35:43
I think, I think that, I
Carter
35:45
I think that being a little bit behind is strong. I think that, uh, feeling
Carter
35:49
feeling like you can do this with a strong ground game empowers the volunteers. It pushes people around out. I mean, I heard someone say the other day that a strong ground game is worth one or 2%. And I think it's actually worth more than that. I think a strong ground game, uh, in, in swing States and in swing, um, districts, uh, all of a a sudden can really change the outcome. We've seen strong ground game here in Canada versus weak ground game. Now, we've also seen what a tsunami looks like. And the thing that I think that Harris and Trump will both concede is
Carter
36:25
is that there's no tsunami coming here. This is not going to be a giant wave that takes out Trump or a giant wave that takes out Harris. This is in fact going going to be a battle
Carter
36:38
battle of attrition and it's going to be super duper close. But it could present itself
Zain
36:43
itself that way, right, Carter? Like these even poles, if they all tilt one point in that direction, that becomes a wave. If Trump or Harris can take all of Nevada, Pennsylvania, Michigan, right, like Georgia, Arizona, if they can take all of them, for example, the vast majority of them kind of appears as an electoral college wave. So I'm not trying to undercut your point, but I wanted to insert that, that this this does have like a one point tilt you know we're no longer talking about electoral votes
Zain
37:12
votes exactly we're looking at like 335 or three whatever that number is if
Carter
37:16
if she wins by 100 electoral votes or he does and or he does yeah
Carter
37:24
there's only one side that's going to sit claim that it was stolen there's
Carter
37:28
there's only one side that's going to claim that it was that this this is because of thievery. And
Carter
37:32
And when you add up the votes in these, I think it's six swing states. I'm not sure where Arizona is going to go, but when you, if you add up the votes in these six swing states and it adds up to a number that's less than a million or less than 500,000 or less than 250,000, people are going to lose their fucking shit because they're already talking about 300,000. Like Elon Musk is out talking about, you know, 300,000 dead people already voting. This is bullshit that they're setting themselves up. One side is going to win, and the other side is going to claim that they won.
Zain
38:07
is going to be dangerous. A brilliant political piece about that particular thing that Carter's mentioned. Corey, jump in on this. Yeah.
Corey
38:13
Yeah. You know what? I think I'm probably going to reference that same piece because it's in the Atlantic, right? You're talking about the
Zain
38:19
the- The long form political piece is the one I was referring to. Oh, Politico. That's
Corey
38:23
That's right. It was Politico.
Corey
38:24
Yeah. Man, I'll tell you something. That piece really gave me a bit of pause. Essentially, it talks about all of the changes that have occurred and
Corey
38:33
and the approaches that might be considered by the Republicans going forward should they lose the election in 2024. Makes this pretty compelling argument that some of the guardrails that saved America last time are no longer there. Despite
Zain
38:47
Despite the fact that Trump won't be this time, won't be in the chair of the presidency. And they've also cleaned
Corey
38:52
cleaned up some of like the electoral count act challenges they had last time, which allowed that Pence situation to exist, at least in the minds of many people.
Corey
39:01
But at the same time, a lot of the local officials have been replaced with people with utter fealty to Trump. So the other thing I think I'm watching is less about the election than it is about the after election is, you know, is American democracy already over? And we just didn't realize it yet, right? Like, how much can the vaunted civic infrastructure stand up to a person like Donald Trump after he's had four years in the open to replace people who were not willing to play ball and who were willing to take seriously their oath to the Constitution with utter fucking stooges and hacks who are willing to do whatever they want? they think needs to be done in order to win this election what
Corey
39:40
what happens then yeah
Carter
39:43
well for me the bug out strategy is still in place uh so i've got my my bug out strategy ready to go and i think what like two three weeks after the election is when shit really hits the fan or do you think we wait until january uh
Corey
39:57
uh you know i i think it's december i think it's when these votes start firming up and we start hitting the deadlines for the states so
Corey
40:04
so i need to order some
Corey
40:05
it's kind of a bad time to bug out in canada i'm just going to tell you but
Carter
40:10
oh yeah i know it's it sucks but uh we've got electric heaters and batteries so we should be fine that's good by
Zain
40:16
by we you mean you yeah
Carter
40:18
it doesn't seem like the rest of the team's coming along um does
Zain
40:22
does that mean the rest of the carter mccray household or the rest of the carter mccray
Carter
40:26
mccray household is split on the issue and it's split currently uh five to one split on
Carter
40:31
hyphen of the name
Corey
40:32
name of the household just out of curiosity
Carter
40:33
curiosity yeah it's good on the carter part um everybody seems to be against it except me um
Carter
40:41
but arguably i'm the guy who knows politics so you
Carter
40:44
you know i i'd go with me i'd trust me on this issue but hey family's
Carter
40:49
family's falling away so anyways i've got five spots open if any of the listeners want to come uh you can just email me it's
Zain
40:57
part of a patreon exclusive yeah we're not going to have a two thousand dollar carter bunker level cory actually what get it up two thousand two thousand two thousand dollars a month carter bunker level okay yeah here's the here's the secret they could just sign up for the first month and then just yeah
Carter
41:13
yeah like there's going
Carter
41:13
to be money after december you're hilarious okay
Zain
41:16
you should probably ask for that in gold okay we're near our 12 minutes guys i'm going to give you the final we used it well especially the end there
Corey
41:22
there i think yeah
Zain
41:23
yeah no i think so too too yeah what do you want to talk about do you want to talk about i'm going to give you a few topics you want to talk about any of the three topics we talked about you guys got to reach a consensus here by the way do you want to talk about new brunswick where susan holt and the liberals have ousted blaine higgs the progressive conservative premier not only just ousted the the pcs but have uh blaine higgs has lost his seat you
Zain
41:45
you want to talk about christy clark uh and and her having a bit of a media moment uh talking about french lessons most recently the fact that she's taken them and that she was well remembered as an environmentalist uh from the right flank of the liberal party uh who was also pro oil and gas and mining it's
Zain
42:05
it's a lot of mental gymnastics to do or yeah you want to talk about a topic of your choice you guys will have to reach a consensus i can already see by your facial expressions it's going to be none of the topics i mentioned probably some stupid thing about dave so where are you guys at
Corey
42:21
i'm good i think we're just good good teasers for next time though zane
Carter
42:25
you're good yeah that was really good okay