Transcript
Zain
0:01
This is a strategist episode 1829. My name is Zain Velji. With me as always, Stephen Carter and one Corey Hogan. Guys, we're
Zain
0:10
we're back recording. We
Corey
0:14
Yeah, elongated Thanksgiving. Now,
Corey
0:17
why do you call it elongated Thanksgiving? Is it the same reason I do?
Corey
0:21
Is it also because it's like a lot
Corey
0:23
lot of sex pills?
Carter
0:25
yeah well i crazy yeah
Zain
0:26
yeah for sure i mean it's it's a tradition we started on the podcast a long time ago we didn't actually fully disclose to each other why we each called it elongated thanksgiving um and then we
Corey
0:35
we found it was for the same reason it was like a little bit like an oh henry story because like i had to sell my pills to get you a gift for thanksgiving but what's the
Zain
0:43
the oh henry story what is what is that reference is
Corey
0:47
is this a serious question yeah
Zain
0:48
yeah i have no
Zain
0:49
idea what you're you're talking about yeah what the fuck are you talking about whitey the
Corey
0:52
the gift of the magi or
Corey
0:53
or like any oh henry story which has the same twist what
Zain
0:57
what is he talking
Corey
0:58
about man this is really like high concept low concept this don't
Zain
1:01
don't oh okay carter did that actually make sense to you at all yeah
Corey
1:06
yeah you know the story about the woman who
Corey
1:08
who cuts her hair so she can buy her husband a watch strap no it's not biblical so then
Zain
1:15
then where does one
Corey
1:17
a school like Not at my school. Not
Zain
1:20
Not at Colonel McLeod Junior High Elementary. Not that
Zain
1:24
that school in Renfrew in Calgary. Yeah,
Corey
1:26
I know the school. It's very close to my house. They didn't teach me that
Zain
1:30
And I know this because I was a C student, so I paid attention to most things. C's make degrees. That's true. Keep going. Keep educating our fellow public school listeners. Okay.
Corey
1:41
Is this really – I feel like everybody listening is going to know this except for you.
Zain
1:45
not. You're going to get tons of feedback from people as accomplished and as literate as me saying, thank you, Corey, for the education. So go ahead. All right.
Corey
1:56
Well, we'll just wait and we'll see. There's a poll out there, I'm sure. But the short – well, like if I tell you, like there's spoilers. I tell you at the minute I tell you, there's spoilers. The biggest
Zain
2:05
biggest spoiler was that this was a real thing. So any spoiler subsequently is going to be smaller in proportion, Corey. So please keep your foot on the gas. Sure,
Corey
2:15
Sure, you got it. There is a woman. She wants to buy her husband a gift. He's got this watch that means a lot to him, but it's on like a cheap strap. So she wants to get him a strap, but she has to cut her beautiful hair to do it and sell her hair to a wig maker. Meanwhile, at the same time, her husband wants to get his wife something really, really nice. So he gets her a really, really nice hairbrush, but he has to sell his watch in order to get the money to buy her the a hairbrush and the you know the whole story is about like hey it's it's the miracle of the season blah blah blah look how much they care for each other they both sacrifice something to get something for the other but ironically here we are now neither of them can use it which i always thought was a bit lame because her hair will grow back you know what i'm saying but that watch is gone that watch is fucking gone so
Corey
3:05
so it's really nothing to
Zain
3:06
to do with the chocolate bar
Corey
3:09
No, the chocolate bar's name, Zane, was actually a reference to O. Henry, the author, and it was a bit of a pun.
Carter
3:19
See, this is why we do the podcast, guys. I
Carter
3:22
I don't believe any of
Zain
3:22
of this being true. We're
Carter
3:23
We're teaching Zane. No,
Carter
3:25
No, this is a
Zain
3:25
a mountain of bullshit. Yeah, no, her hair will grow back. Did you call the public education system out when you learned this story the first time and you talked about the hair? Yeah, he was two.
Carter
3:38
He was in grade five when he was two.
Zain
3:40
People are going to write in. They're going to write in droves telling us that they've not heard of this story before. And you know what? Why would they? They're probably mad because I
Corey
3:48
I spoiled the short story for them. Carter,
Zain
3:50
Carter, happy elongated Thanksgiving to you too. Thank you. Yeah, yeah. How have things been going on your end? As little or as much detail as you'd like to share.
Carter
4:00
I basically just kicked my entire family out of my house so that I could do the podcast. That
Carter
4:06
not super popular with my wife right now, but you know what? I was having a pretty good day, so I can afford the unpopularity. I can afford it today. You
Corey
4:15
You said that, but now you stating that on the podcast is
Carter
4:18
is actually close to you. Probably
Carter
4:18
Probably in a lot of trouble.
Carter
4:20
You know what? She's less a fan of me talking about her on the podcast than I would think, too.
Carter
4:25
You know what you should do,
Zain
4:26
do, Carter? And here's a suggestion. Buy her a gift. And I'm just going to just pull one out there, a hairbrush.
Zain
4:32
like a hairbrush would be a wonderful gift.
Carter
4:34
I'm going to go sell my watch. watch yeah that's good
Zain
4:36
good that's good okay we're gonna leave whatever that was there and move it on to our first segment gents our first segment mount rushmore some
Zain
4:45
some liberal mps are mounting in new efforts to oust justin trudeau that
Corey
4:49
that was strained it was
Carter
4:50
good no i liked it i
Carter
4:52
i liked it it's
Corey
4:54
one thumb up one thumb down yeah
Corey
4:57
that's i mean that's been the nature
Corey
4:58
nature of this podcast for a very long time cory hogan pressure
Zain
5:01
pressure is building on the prime Prime Minister and his office has a growing number of anxious liberal MPs are coordinating an effort, Stephen Carter, to force Justin
Zain
5:10
Trudeau to step down as liberal leader. Multiple sources have told CBC News, Toronto Star, now Globe and Mail. It turns out, Carter, that this is a document, isn't a letter to be circulated. Sources describe it as a vehicle to secure commitments from MPs within the liberal caucus to seek a leadership change and to bind MPs to that goal if the prime minister and his supporters push back. So what I hear, it's a physical open letter, I guess, Carter, where MPs are signing their intent to be
Zain
5:38
be in solidarity for a call to seek a leadership change.
Zain
5:42
That's what it seems like. Stephen Carter, let's start here.
Zain
5:47
How big of a deal is this to Justin Trudeau? He's faced a shit ton of shit over the last number of months. Is this just another thing or is this a different, unique and special thing? anything
Carter
5:57
anything well i mean anything up until the last second up until he's actually taken out it's it's just another thing um
Carter
6:04
um so this is just another thing i mean it may just be a rumor i mean the
Carter
6:08
the the reporting on it has been uh consistent so it leads me to believe that it's probably true but uh you know it it's just a uh a rumor that that persists that has persisted really since they lost the the by-election in toronto so
Carter
6:24
so from that time till now uh justin trudeau has been at
Carter
6:29
at least rumored to be in trouble but
Carter
6:31
but the rumors may be grossly over exaggerated until
Carter
6:35
until such time as we actually see uh
Carter
6:38
uh action from the caucus which to
Carter
6:42
to this point has looked fairly uh
Carter
6:44
uh unwilling to take the action or the steps that are required so
Carter
6:48
so this you know this isn't a caucus that's behaving behaving like a British caucus, for example. This
Carter
6:53
This is a caucus that is behaving like it's
Carter
6:55
cowed into doing whatever the leader wants.
Zain
6:59
Corey, what do you think? Is this a big deal for Justin Trudeau and his office?
Corey
7:04
I think Carter's last comment there about the comparison to a British caucus was interesting because that's the first thing I thought of when I heard about this letter that was being sent around where it's, hey, the
Carter
7:17
the suggestion is we're
Corey
7:19
we're we're all in this together. We get enough signatures. Then we know we have the critical mass and then, Hey, then we can go out there. Right. So it's almost like a, a secret vote count, like the 1922 committee in the UK conservatives, right. Which allows a leadership vote to be triggered by a certain number of letters to the executive committee of that particular committee. Right.
Corey
7:39
And I think it's interesting because it, it both says something about the current state of the liberal party and the liberal caucus, but it also says something about um
Corey
7:50
i think the patience of some people within that that party and what they're looking for strategically to to be able to pull here and let's
Corey
7:59
let's put it this way we've
Corey
8:01
we've heard forever and look you don't have to have your ear very close to the ground to hear lots of rumblings coming out of the liberal caucus as they're plummeting in the polls the
Corey
8:11
the prime minister's office has taken on a bit of of an aura of aloofness,
Corey
8:14
aloofness, I guess would be the charitable, you know, way to put it. And
Corey
8:20
people aren't happy, but people also haven't been particularly mutinous. And in part, because there is a sense that the prime minister has a pretty tight grip on things here. And I'll tell you, I was hearing some pretty strong rumors in the summer that there was going to be a
Corey
8:35
very, very aggressive push against the prime minister saying, hey, leadership's got to to be on the table we've got to talk about this it
Corey
8:43
it it didn't really materialize right it didn't material people just they weren't there and um i you know i'll tell you something strong
Corey
8:51
strong first drafts weak fifth drafts kind of stuff right in terms of just the conversations that were going on around uh around the liberal caucus and nothing happened seems
Corey
9:01
seems to me and this goes to what we're learning about some of the the more kind of concerned people is folks are learning from that that right and they're saying okay well what was the fail point and
Corey
9:13
and how do we get past that fail point and they have assessed it and i would generally agree with the assessment from the outside the fail point was nobody wants to be out on a limb not not uncommon fail point by the way during a palace coup during a mutiny of any type that
Zain
9:28
that no one wants to be the face of it you mean like no one wants nobody wants to
Corey
9:32
to be out there calling the leader to go and then turning around and all of the people who said they were with you not being with you yeah right and
Corey
9:39
and so they've constructed a new strategy that seems to be how to get around that fail point and say listen you know folks
Corey
9:47
folks we're all feeling the same thing i understand that none of us want to go too far out there but what if we're actually a much bigger group than people appreciate and what if you know you don't have to worry about those people saying i'm with you just to withdraw that because now we We have it in ink that they are with
Corey
10:04
with us in saying we have concerns about the leadership and we think leadership needs to be a conversation on the table.
Corey
10:10
That's super fascinating for me because it shows both the state of the party, but also some of the strategic machinations going on.
Zain
10:17
Carter, before I come to you, is that super fascinating, Corey, or do you, while talking it through, appreciate the strategy here from what you understand? Do you like how this is taking
Zain
10:27
taking shape, this audit and then reveal? although it's been thwarted
Zain
10:33
thwarted slightly and i want to get to that potentially whether this leak was strategic or accidental but do you like what you see thus far do
Corey
10:41
do i like it well it's hard to say without knowing what their ultimate numbers are if all they have is what's been reported 20
Zain
10:47
20 ish or so yeah
Corey
10:48
yeah i mean even that's actually pretty substantial so maybe maybe even that is is enough to to really uh whip some heads but you
Corey
10:57
you know the value of that technique the value of hey Hey, we're actually much more of the same mind than, you know, goes up. The more people are of the same mind with you, right? If this actually shakes the trees and gets a couple of other MPs out, if people are willing to, to get involved in this kind of pact rather than, you know, because it gets past some of their anxieties, then yeah, it's a very smart tactic, but it
Corey
11:22
it really depends on where you are. And it is a tactic that can spectacularly backfire too, because now you have a list of people who are not particularly or could be perceived as not particularly loyal to the prime minister.
Corey
11:35
And that that can present challenges. Carter,
Zain
11:38
Carter, is this strategic? Or are they just producing a list for the PMO to understand who their internal enemies are?
Carter
11:45
think this is more strategic. I think it's more strategic than another.
Carter
11:50
Yeah. I mean, tell
Zain
11:51
tell me why your
Carter
11:51
your other option is to, you know, get everybody to sign a letter or people individually send letters or, you know, meet with the prime minister's office. I think most of those tactics have been taken.
Carter
12:01
There needs to be some sort of new strategy employed.
Carter
12:04
And Corey was right about the fail point.
Carter
12:07
But the fail point that he described was,
Carter
12:10
was, you know, like someone running to the front of the, you know, to say to the prime minister, you have to step down.
Carter
12:17
But the fail point appears to be when something leaks.
Carter
12:21
That seems to be the fail point. And did we avoid that fail point? Nope, something's still leaked. So is it enough to kill it or is the rumor that there's 20 plus MPs already enough to keep it on the tracks? So that's a big question. And the next, I
Carter
12:43
I mean, how long do they have, right? How long do they have before something
Carter
12:47
something actually has to give way? And one would argue that they have until last June.
Carter
12:53
And that's already a past
Carter
12:55
date, right? Maybe the best before date on this strategy has
Carter
13:00
has already come and gone. on i
Corey
13:02
gotta tell you the timing like i think that this tactic maybe would have been useful to apply six months ago to steven's point but the timing now is crazy like it's it's a minority government
Corey
13:15
there are just so many first of all there's going to be so many people who say we don't want this kind of bullshit right now the government could fall at any time and by the way if you're the pmo when you're thinking well
Corey
13:26
well the pressure's getting too high you can just orchestrate your own defeat like that like how hard could it possibly even even a pmo that's that's
Corey
13:35
that's way past its prime can figure out how to orchestrate its own defeat that's that's one-on-one stuff they might do that by accident in the next four weeks anyhow but
Corey
13:43
it's pretty meaningful when one-eighth of your caucus is willing to sign a letter like that or like a pledge like that however you want to frame it i guess um that's
Corey
13:53
that's pretty meaningful but it is just the timing is wild but
Carter
13:56
but what is the the tipping point, Corey? Like, is it one-eighth, one-sixth, one-fifth, one-fourth? Like, does
Carter
14:02
does it have to be over 50%? I mean, ultimately, we don't have the British system.
Corey
14:08
The MPs can put as much pressure on as they want. I mean, you're right. There's not like a threshold on which a leadership vote is called or reviewed. That doesn't happen here. Whoop-dee-doo, right?
Zain
14:17
And so to that point, Carter, is it a number or is it something more subjective
Zain
14:22
subjective than that? A particular name, name representation from regions gender splits amongst the list um years of service uh how many of them are seen as i'm just giving you random sort of like quote
Zain
14:36
quote-unquote like intersectionalities of of other things but is it just a raw numbers game carter or is it actually other more subjective features as well because we don't know these 20 names right there are 20 names
Zain
14:48
names or so but
Carter
14:48
but immediately take off all the cabinet ministers yeah
Carter
14:51
they're they're not going to assigned like even if they're they're quietly supportive they're not going to come anywhere near this thing so
Carter
14:57
so you take off the the uh the
Carter
14:59
the cabinet ministers then you take off uh
Carter
15:01
uh the parliamentary secretaries you
Carter
15:04
you know maybe one of those sniffing
Carter
15:05
sniffing around but each of them thinks that they're the next minister or something uh
Carter
15:09
uh then you're going to you
Carter
15:11
you know all the all the assigned positions they're not probably joining like this is probably 20 of 50 right
Carter
15:17
right like it's It's not 20 of 160
Carter
15:25
it's 20 of 80.
Carter
15:28
Maybe it's 25% of the people who don't have jobs.
Carter
15:32
That might be it, right?
Carter
15:35
everybody who's got a job wants to hold on to that job. And
Carter
15:38
And they know that their loyalty to the prime minister is the only reason that
Carter
15:41
that they hold on to their jobs.
Carter
15:45
I don't know. Well, I
Carter
15:46
I think that maybe
Carter
15:48
maybe just sheer numbers would be enough. If you got to 35
Carter
15:54
I don't know, just guessing, maybe
Carter
15:59
tips over and people start saying, well, if it's 35 that are willing to actually say this, then
Carter
16:04
then surely it's got to be more than that that are at least thinking it.
Zain
16:07
what do you think?
Corey
16:09
that for me, the number that makes the most sense to drive towards is that 15% because of the 1922 committee and nobody says hey we're beholden to the uk tories and their system but depending on how it's framed like you know i'd be really curious to see how this blood oath is is you know written out but i
Corey
16:29
think that having 15 say we want to have a confidence in leadership conversation uh you
Corey
16:36
you should have the conversation at that point the question i think 15 of mp should should be able to call a question like that and
Corey
16:43
and frankly if you're the party if you're the caucus do you really want this to fester and have people saying exactly what steven said which is what if it's a lot more than that right well this guy's just bleeding right now like in some ways i think the prime minister's office needs more than theatrical shows of force jason
Corey
17:03
jason kenney takes a lot of flack and obviously he he ended up um losing his leadership although he stepped down He didn't win that vote. Right. But what I think that we can all acknowledge he did pretty fucking well was whenever there was a lot of drama around his leadership in his caucus, especially through covid restrictions, he
Corey
17:22
he just called the question and
Corey
17:25
the opposition melted away. way the cowards disappeared yeah
Corey
17:29
because you know that's a really powerful tool that the leader has and as soon as he called the question we can say this the three of us as pundits watching this hearing the leaks you know talking to people in the caucuses and all of that for
Corey
17:41
for six months we didn't take anybody seriously uh
Corey
17:44
uh you know who was saying hey like you know there's some trouble here like jason kenney's in trouble jason kenney calls the question nobody stands up to him fucking could not take seriously any suggestions he was going down for at least a few months right and so i think that there is something to that if you're justin trudeau if you just want to put this stuff to bed if
Corey
18:03
if you can like again i don't have a whip count on this particular topic yeah
Corey
18:07
yeah but it might be worth considering carter
Zain
18:09
carter i've got two strategy questions for you that i want to explore um the first one is should this group have
Zain
18:16
have a soft landing or a hard landing available for the prime minister. And by soft landing, I mean, we can come to terms together, hard landing, meaning, you know, here's what you got to do. And we're going to get louder, more abrasive, more aggressive. Not to say that this group of one would assume backbenchers has all that power. But how would you strategically think about this? Are you playing hardball? Or are you kind of just showing strength in numbers in a quiet confidence way? How would you think about this strategically? Well,
Carter
18:44
I would I would try and make it soft. I'd say, you know, you can remain prime minister during
Carter
18:50
during the leadership. Right. Like you don't have to step down immediately. It's soft.
Carter
18:58
the objective would be to tend to get a new prime minister. Right. Like that's the objective is to get a new leader of the party.
Carter
19:07
If that's the objective, then the softest landing is we'll
Carter
19:10
we'll put a cushion when you land.
Carter
19:12
Right. Like that's it.
Carter
19:15
because otherwise you're going to go splat uh
Carter
19:18
that's the only that's the only opportunity that exists to make it a soft landing unless
Carter
19:23
unless someone tries to get a new job for him
Carter
19:28
we got the un secretary general for you justin how's
Carter
19:31
how's that sound right
Carter
19:32
right but i i don't think that that's particularly
Carter
19:34
particularly feasible this you know for the serve
Zain
19:36
serve as bill morneau's deputy of the oecd cd probably
Zain
19:41
sure that's a that's a job that
Carter
19:42
that would be a job that uh both of them would be thrilled uh
Carter
19:45
uh to offer the other cory
Zain
19:47
cory what are you thinking do you feel like this is hardball or this is um
Zain
19:52
um soft landing i
Corey
19:56
don't know i mean i i guess i'll say i don't really know what's going on with the liberal caucus right now because the timeline does mess with my head on this what
Corey
20:04
what they're looking to get um i
Corey
20:07
just don't know i because the answer to your question depends on what their goals are and their goals are quite murky if the goal is let's have a leadership race let's just do it let's just go uh
Corey
20:16
uh then yeah i think you if you don't make it about a soft land you just you play hardball like if that's what you're trying to do like the challenge with soft landing and trying to create soft landings for people is a they need to be somewhat willing to to take that graceful exit we see no evidence of that yes right and
Corey
20:37
take time you know like a good soft landing doesn't happen in an instant right if you're a prime minister i mean it's
Corey
20:44
it's really situation dependent but you want to orchestrate somebody choosing to leave on their own on their own dime here right like they pick up the phone they make that call. And
Corey
20:55
And that's, that's, that's kind of December territory. Like, Hey, we got through another session. I've decided to take a walk in the snow, like my father, and I'm not going to run again. Right.
Corey
21:05
If you're in a minority government and you just don't even feel like you can risk getting through this particular sitting, then, you know, then
Corey
21:13
then I guess you just got to push hard because, uh, the soft landing is not something you necessarily have, have
Corey
21:18
have the space for.
Zain
21:21
Corey, I've got a question that, it's
Zain
21:24
it's a strategic question that's really about what naturally happens now that there has been this media leak and
Zain
21:33
and that this is out there.
Zain
21:34
And I think there's like a strategic sort of question I want to explore, but before I want to get, I want to get both of you like on the, on the, on an analysis question, which is what's the natural life of this now that it is out?
Zain
21:46
And, and, and so discuss its natural life. And then I i want to put you on two different teams one to kill
Zain
21:51
kill it one to um
Zain
21:52
um word of the podcast elongate it um
Zain
21:55
um and and i want to kind
Corey
21:57
kind of talk about
Zain
21:58
about that a bit more but what in your mind cory no other you know in a vacuum what's the natural life of this thing now that now that's out prematurely one would imagine prematurely so
Corey
22:08
so anytime you face increased pressure and criticism in politics like this i would i wouldn't shouldn't say anytime that's that's an absolute statement but what are of the most obvious things you do when you're sitting in the leader's office and you're dealing with that is
Corey
22:21
is some version of the conversation goes of, um,
Corey
22:26
well, are there any grievances that we should be able to take off the table? Like in some ways it's like, is there any truth to any of this? Is there anything we should be dealing with here? What should we address that they are rightly calling out as a problem? And you do this not out of the goodness of your heart and you don't obviously do it because you think it makes you seem really strong, but you do it to make sure that they're not going to find other people that are on the edge who might otherwise then be sympathetic to that. So I actually think we got a pretty good case study of that this weekend with the announcement of the two new national co-directors of the liberal campaign. One of the criticisms was, as
Corey
23:03
as was in the reporting, we still don't have a new national campaign director and we could be in an election at any time. Well, God,
Corey
23:10
God, what, within 24 hours of that story hitting the wire and there's the announcement of that and maybe
Corey
23:15
maybe no i'm not even going to say that it was never actually timed for that time that would be it's fucking thanksgiving weekend that is
Carter
23:23
is not sunday and thanksgiving weekend that's
Corey
23:25
that's that's horseshit and that's nonsense but what it was was people taking grievances off the table so when that letter or that oath goes to the next office of the next mp that's not something they can point to as a legitimate grievance anymore right and so So leaders' offices look around the edges and they say, who's weak, right? In terms of like support for us, what are their concerns going to be? What are the concerns out there? Is there any legitimacy to this? If you happen to have a list of grievances, that's great. You just start saying, okay, what can we deal with? What do we want to deal with? What should we deal with? All of those questions.
Corey
24:01
And then you move through it in a bit of a logical fashion. And that's what you'll see, right? Right. You'll see the premier or the prime minister in this case start
Corey
24:10
start making a couple of things happen faster than they would have naturally happened.
Corey
24:15
And then something happens. Either it
Corey
24:19
it grows or it doesn't. And if the mutiny doesn't grow anymore, the mutiny is generally dead. And if it does grow, well, then they've got to make even bigger offers. They've got to put bigger things on the table, such as changes to the prime minister's office staffing. And
Corey
24:34
if that doesn't work,
Corey
24:36
well, there's only one move after that.
Zain
24:39
Carter, what do you think? What's the natural life of this?
Carter
24:42
The natural life of this? Now that's
Carter
24:46
Yeah. I mean, once it's been leaked, I
Carter
24:49
think that there's a lifespan on this whole operation.
Carter
24:52
And the lifespan to me is measured in days and
Carter
24:55
and hours, not in weeks, right? There has to be some sort of action.
Carter
25:01
It can't exist in the same space that has been defined by this set of articles, with a bunch of MPs looking at a letter or looking at whatever the hell they're looking at.
Carter
25:16
It can't exist in that space much longer.
Carter
25:19
It has to exist in a space of action or some sort of opportunity. opportunity and
Carter
25:22
that's i think what uh
Carter
25:24
uh you know they're all away from ottawa this week i believe they're
Carter
25:28
they're all at home because of the thanksgiving break um
Carter
25:32
will that just cause it to peter out if
Carter
25:34
if it doesn't cause it to peter out then what what
Carter
25:36
what does the week after look like um
Carter
25:40
you know and and let's
Carter
25:40
let's be clear andrew bevin was announced to uh
Carter
25:44
uh and marjorie michelle uh
Carter
25:46
uh to to quell this dissent that
Carter
25:49
that you know don't worry i've got andrew bevin everybody likes andrew bevin everybody
Carter
25:53
everybody likes andrew bevin right
Carter
25:56
i'm not sure that people are going andrew bevin was the guy that we really wanted to put in charge of the campaign i'm super pleased for him i i think andrew's great um
Carter
26:07
it's an easy position to critique it's like looking at someone else's creative work right
Carter
26:12
oh it's super easy to create you know to critique someone's creative work
Carter
26:15
but is it you
Carter
26:17
know is it actually you know did you see what work went into it did you see the brief did you see all the pieces of creative limitations
Carter
26:24
the same thing happens with andrew bevin i mean he's he's going to be easy to critique not
Carter
26:29
not because he's wrong not because he's bad but
Carter
26:33
people want to critique it yeah
Zain
26:36
cory i'm going to put you on a team and
Zain
26:37
and your team is team pmo kill this thing off carter
Zain
26:42
carter i'm going to put you on a team your team Team is team. Keep us volleying alive as much as you can. Oh, good. Okay, yeah, yeah. No, the
Carter
26:50
the PMO loves me already. This is perfect. No, this
Zain
26:53
is what we do on this show. Okay. Corey, what's your first move? Carter, I'll come to you in a second. What's your first move?
Corey
27:01
I do believe that good strategy comes from good analysis. So the first move is to get people who will not believe
Corey
27:10
believe their own bullshit, shit but can clear-eyed look at this and try to craft what we think is some version of a whip count for support for the leader like
Corey
27:17
absolutely in the tank for us to you know they wouldn't cross the street and spit on us if we were on fire and and really try to understand exactly what the lay of the land is and uh from your you know you've got your two poles right then start to try to understand the middle like move in towards it and say like who's who's kind of up for grabs here Like, what's the conversation? And then you move through them and you try to understand what exactly it is that motivates them, what they're looking for, how you might be able to manage this situation. And I'm not saying that you have to give them it, but I'm saying you need to at least understand what you're looking at before
Corey
27:53
before you move any further. You also do need to be clear on goals, but I'm taking a bit for a given. The goal here is to survive as prime minister. yes
Corey
28:01
i do think that as the prime minister's office they should be having that conversation like not everybody in a room but the chief of staff with
Corey
28:08
with the prime minister should be saying and
Corey
28:11
and justin you know it's me it's katie we've known each other a long time is this a goal like are we trying to fight this out like is that what you want right now just need to confirm i'm with you 100 wouldn't be doing my job if i didn't ask i think you should fight but i you know this This is your moment to sort of decide what your goal is for the next bit here.
Corey
28:30
So once you've understood what your goals are and once you've understood where everybody lies and what motivates them, you then begin the conversations and you then begin the airdrops of different things. And so I would call the national directors an airdrop, right?
Corey
28:45
right? Hey, we're going to, we've just got to have that out there so that we're able to reference it during the conversations. conversations like
Corey
28:53
know hey geez we
Corey
28:55
we were not planning to announce him right now you know andrew uh
Corey
28:58
uh andrew's gonna do the job everybody knows andrew everybody likes andrew andrew's been around in the party for a long long time credible
Corey
29:07
you know it's funny like unfortunately for him there's
Corey
29:10
there's gonna be a group of people who thought with this national director position they should give it to like an absolute like international superstar or something like that or yeah
Corey
29:18
like some even really out of left field thing like stephen carter yeah and
Corey
29:23
and but then there's going to be um you
Corey
29:26
you know then there's going to be the reality that that was not likely ever going to happen right and you're going to look for a party stalwart who can who can run the campaign capably and andrew certainly fits that bill so you've airdropped that you'll airdrop other things and then you'll start having those conversations with people and you'll start saying things like, look, we
Corey
29:44
we all know this has been a tough couple of months. We also know that the focus right now is on us in an unhelpful way and Pierre Polyev in a helpful way for him. And that's all going to change during a campaign. And we've done this before. We've been here before. Do you remember before the 2015 election, how much everybody counted us out in the Liberal Party? Well, look, we know how to deal with that. And we deal with that by doing the good work and staying united as a team and all of the crap that you would normally go through when you just start moving through that list it's moving through that list will also tell you if you've approached it strategically because you want to look at the people you
Corey
30:22
you want to have a good sampling i think of people across the spectrum of who you think's on your side like but shaky to who you think yes
Corey
30:30
you start if your phone calls are with people and everybody you thought was
Corey
30:35
was yours on board with you is not you've got a problem if everybody you thought maybe was shaky is like no 100 this is bullshit this is a nonsense thing i can't believe they'd be doing this justin you know you and i have had trouble in the past but it's game time what the fuck are these people thinking well then you've got a different thing too so you've
Corey
30:54
you've started with your assumption analysis i'm going to call it that right where you've gone so this is where it is you've then validated that analysis and you've You've started to make moves to shore up your base. That's what you do if you're the PMO.
Zain
31:09
that last point, I think there's something worthy exploring. And Carter, I know I'm getting you on the other side, but I like your take on this particular piece too, because I think it's unique perhaps to, well, no, you're not unique, but it's unique to circumstances like this, which is how do you know if you can trust people?
Zain
31:28
And Corey, I'm kind of curious, if you're the PMO, arguably the party here, not the capital P political party, but the party between the two camps that is at a deficit in terms of trust, how do you know if you can trust people? Any thoughts on that? Because lip service is easy, especially in a remote week where people are all across the country. You don't get to look at them in the white of their eyes to try to suss out anything or get any body language elements to it nerding
Zain
31:54
nerding out a bit but i think this is an important component for both camps in terms of trust thoughts
Zain
32:02
well yeah um and i'll carl i'll get you in on it a couple
Corey
32:06
couple of first of all i will just say generally how do you ascertain trust ever right it's a pretty like complicated dance of how well you know the person what they're saying whether it makes sense and all of that But
Corey
32:18
But there are some political practical approaches. One of them is force public displays of commitment, right? Well, listen, I need you out there. If you can pick up the phone and call this reporter at the CBC and let them know what you think about this on the record, that would be very helpful, right?
Corey
32:34
right? So you put people, if you want to test their words, you make them live up to their words. You then say, okay, well, if those are your words and I take you by your words, naturally what would follow are actions A, B, and C.
Corey
32:47
Maybe it's a public display of commitment. Maybe it's calling some other MPs and reporting back. Whatever it is, you
Corey
32:52
you can test trust and you can test it at lower stakes ways and then move to higher stakes as you go along. But that's the short answer. or it's obviously always more complicated, but also it's
Corey
33:04
it's always in the background. Like trust is always a conversation or a consideration or contemplation in these moments.
Zain
33:10
Carter, your comments on trust, and then I want to get your take on your side of the equation. What's the first move you're making?
Carter
33:16
Trust is a direct relationship with how much power you have.
Carter
33:20
If you have a lot of power, you can trust the people around you because they're not going to be dicking around on you because you've got the power. If you don't have the power, then you can't trust anyone. And
Carter
33:29
And right now, I would posit that the prime minister's office doesn't have the power.
Carter
33:36
probably can't trust very many people at all. People
Carter
33:39
People are going to lie to their faces because that's less consequential than
Carter
33:46
than speaking the truth to them. um
Carter
33:50
you know at some point someone i imagine would would actually say to the prime minister hey this is this is real we have to we have to do this we have to make some choices um but
Carter
34:02
but until someone walks into his office and says that i would assume that everybody's talking behind his back everybody's talking behind his back all the time because he doesn't have that power that power that
Carter
34:15
frankly secures trust koi
Corey
34:18
know i would be so tempted if i were the prime minister
Corey
34:21
um because i think it would serve strategic purpose right once you've gone through that initial analysis and once you've identified who you think are the ringleaders so to speak
Corey
34:31
just pick up the phone and call them and say let's imagine it's steven say steven what the hell is going on here
Zain
34:38
like steven isn't it like as one of your mps yeah like
Corey
34:39
like as one of the mps but But also probably Stephen is Stephen. And RG probably has never
Zain
34:43
never gotten a call like that or a call ever from the PM, one would argue.
Corey
34:48
No, just say like, hey, listen, this reporting, obviously
Corey
34:52
obviously a little concerning. Let's talk to me. And then they're going to do some bullshit if they're actually behind it. Like, oh, it's nice we're talking now, you know, but you haven't talked to me forever. And say, listen, listen,
Corey
35:04
it's 160 MPs. We've got a government to run. I acknowledge I should be talking to MPs more. That's something I'm trying to work on. Let's talk about this. What's going on? And, you know, I would just directly, directly
Corey
35:15
directly address it with a couple of them. Because I think, A, that will show an awful lot of it. Like, you'll get a bunch of intelligence back. And like I said, good situation analysis leads to good strategy, right?
Corey
35:27
But also, you're putting people on notice that they can't just walk around and do whatever without- Just this fuckery
Zain
35:34
fuckery can't happen. Yeah. Yeah.
Zain
35:37
Corey is suggesting analysis first and has given us a few strategic moves on his end, including the most recent one, which includes a direct call from the PM as a potential tactic.
Zain
35:48
What's your first move, Carter?
Carter
35:51
My first move is to make sure that there is a defined timeline by
Carter
35:54
by which this has to go away,
Carter
35:56
so that everybody understands that this is it. This
Carter
35:59
This is the end of the discussion.
Carter
36:02
We either act now or we never act again we speak now or we never we never ever now that it's out now
Zain
36:08
now that it's out does that timeline change for this for this group or like is it just clarified even more well i mean
Carter
36:13
mean if i was a month ago i would be saying the exact same thing i'll be saying that the timeline has to have an end date and
Carter
36:19
and pick it pick the date you
Carter
36:20
you know put a pin in the calendar i don't care what it is but there has to be an end date where you're no longer going to be doing these things and the timeline becomes number one number
Carter
36:29
number two is that there is only one data point to consider.
Carter
36:32
One data point, one data point only. We've seen with the Bevan announcement that they
Carter
36:36
they can try and change the channel on you, right?
Carter
36:39
Well, you guys wanted us to have a better campaign director.
Carter
36:42
doesn't matter who the fucking campaign director is going to be. We're going to get annihilated,
Carter
36:46
right? It could be a mixture of all the deities and we're still going to lose, right?
Carter
36:52
right? There is no way that we're going to win this election. So who cares if it's Andrew who's marching us to the gallows or if it's uh you
Carter
37:00
you know cory hogan and zane velgey i mean it's it's the exact same it's the exact same outcome so
Carter
37:07
there's only one number that matters and that is polling the
Carter
37:10
polling numbers are telling us that
Carter
37:12
that if we do x you know if we keep the prime minister in in place we lose if we move the prime minister if the prime minister decides to step uptown, maybe
Carter
37:21
maybe we don't lose.
Carter
37:23
That's the only thing that matters. And you know which seats are going to go?
Carter
37:29
Your seats are the ones that are going to go, right?
Carter
37:32
that's how I would get everybody to move.
Carter
37:36
This is about one number, one number only. They can try and distract. They can try and force
Carter
37:41
force us to be loyal. They can call us up even though they haven't spoken to us for weeks, months.
Carter
37:48
They're not listening in caucus.
Carter
37:52
All of that is because there's only one number
Carter
37:54
polling for the next election.
Zain
37:57
Corey, what's Carter's group's biggest weakness?
Corey
38:03
The biggest weakness. Yeah,
Zain
38:04
Yeah, and I'll throw random ones out there. You don't have to select from this list. Is it that it's leaderless? Is it that there's no one's willing to put, you know, stick their neck out? Is it the small relative size of the numbers? Is it that it's too late? Is it that, you know, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera, just throwing a few out there. Carter, I'm going to come to you in a second to ask about the PMO's greatest weakness at this point, but what's their greatest strategic weakness right now, Corey?
Corey
38:29
and it's a minority government. I think that the moment is their greatest weakness, right?
Corey
38:34
I actually think that if this had been their approach six months ago, this would be very interesting, but I don't know that it can be interesting now because ultimately that That very same survival instinct that Stephen is talking about, that idea of we're all going down right now, that's what the polls tell us.
Corey
38:52
It's a tough sell to say the darkness that this group wants to bring you into is definitely going to be better than the darkness they're experiencing right now. Look, I just think that's really pretty challenging
Corey
39:06
challenging because the chaos that is going to just bleed into the headlines. headlines
Corey
39:12
palace coup leading to a leadership race that will undoubtedly be incredibly acrimonious even if it is short and
Corey
39:18
and in the meantime you'll have to prorogue parliament to make any of this work probably like fucking ridiculous
Corey
39:24
ridiculous like just ridiculous stuff and so i think that this particular moment does not lend itself to the kind of machinations we're seeing right now
Corey
39:37
i just don't know that's going to end up for better results for the liberal party, even if they pull it off.
Zain
39:42
what's the PMO and Team Corey's biggest strategic weakness right now?
Carter
39:49
The fact that Justin Trudeau is- Which number? The polling number? The polling number. The polling number. I mean, Justin Trudeau is definitely leading them to defeat. There is no question of that. The question is, will they be the official opposition or the third party in the House, or maybe even the fourth party um they have gone they they didn't fall the two seats but falling to the 30s and then trying to recover is a very very difficult lift and the other problem that they have because i'm going to do two because cory kind of did two is
Carter
40:22
is that they have no capacity at all to look forward read the bevin announcement right strengthening our public health care centers system
Carter
40:31
system with dental care and and pharmacare, and building a stronger economy while creating new middle-class jobs, and $10 a day childcare, and making housing more affordable. This is the same shit. They couldn't change their message if their life depended on it. This is the message that brought them to this stage, where they are losing by 20 points. It's not going to work because they don't know how to to fix it that's
Carter
40:56
that's the reality so
Carter
40:58
those are the two greatest weaknesses 20
Carter
41:01
20 points down and
Carter
41:02
and they don't know how to get back cory
Zain
41:06
asked you for your first move i asked for carter's greatest weakness what is your team's
Zain
41:13
if it comes to it it's
Corey
41:15
it's it's not crazy it would be a change in the prime minister's office staff right
Corey
41:21
right i mean and i don't say that because i think it would even and be a good idea i'm saying it's like the it's the next step it's what's there is a list here and steven has been subject to this list frankly right which is if you're moving after the leader you move through like
Corey
41:38
like there's there's certain checkpoints you go along the way right and it's like junior staff and then more senior staff and then it is like the you know the most senior of the staff to the leader and then there's only the leader left right it
Corey
41:51
it never begins with i have a problem with the leader it's always i think the leader is getting bad advice in area x got to change area x and once area x has been changed it's well it's still broken so pretty clear it's not just area x it's the overall leadership of area y and then it becomes you know who's responsible for all of this you know it's that chief of staff you know person z who is going to be uh you need to get to be swapped out but like when there's nothing left to swap out that's when you swap out the leader so on
Corey
42:20
on the inverse side if you're looking to relieve that That pressure, that's
Corey
42:23
that's the lever you pull, right?
Corey
42:25
right? It almost never works. Yeah,
Carter
42:29
actually just weakens the office of the prime minister, right? Yeah.
Carter
42:32
It's not like there's a better chief of staff than Katie Telford necessarily sticking around. It's just waiting in the wings. The same way that Andrew Bevan is a great guy, but isn't necessarily a better campaign
Carter
42:45
campaign director than Jeremy
Carter
42:50
You know, we won't know that. But what we do know is that, you
Carter
42:54
you know, Jeremy Broadhurst was the one who was chosen first. The reason for that, probably
Carter
42:59
probably it's because they thought he would do a better job.
Zain
43:04
you're a Hail Mary. What
Carter
43:10
would imagine that if this thing actually started to go, you'd have to start to see some people talk
Zain
43:21
independence is your hail mary interesting that is not what i thought you would go cory you want to react to this or you want to you want to add a point here yeah
Corey
43:26
yeah i think that the real hail mary is also very moment dependent it's just go call the election just go on
Zain
43:32
on your side of things yeah on the pm side of things right yeah especially
Corey
43:35
especially well if you think that there is going to be a like a new independent cohort fucking
Corey
43:41
fucking go the rishi sunak actually
Zain
43:43
actually you You know, Carter, the last sort of area I wanted to talk about on this is, you know, we talked about the British rules, and you brought up British earlier, and you brought it up in the middle as it related to, like, the threshold of a leadership vote within caucus, which we don't have here.
Zain
43:58
What lessons could we learn from the Brits, though? And I don't mean we, but I mean, what lessons could there be to learn from how the Brits do it? I don't mean from rules, but I mean from aggressiveness, strategy, assertion, how they've have been successful in ousting leaders. And I think recency bias points to the conservatives on the British side and what they have done from a Liz Truss, Boris Johnson perspective. But your thoughts?
Carter
44:27
My thoughts? I mean, the first thing I would learn from the Brits is to include the MPs and give the MPs more
Carter
44:33
more of a role.
Corey
44:37
That's the Reform Act. They could have done it. They decided not to. Yeah,
Carter
44:40
Yeah, but the members of parliament have to have a role. Their
Carter
44:46
Their role can't just be the same as Corey Hogan's and Stephen Carter's role, right? Two people sitting outside throwing some ideas around. you know this has
Carter
44:56
has to be some there has to be someone people with skin in the game let's be clear i think that it's safe to say that the skin in the game exists for members of parliament who
Carter
45:10
deal with the with the negative consequences of this having the ability to make changes um you
Carter
45:17
you know if 15 to 20 percent of the caucus said this this leader is not good enough you
Carter
45:24
that enough to to to to push a leadership vote well it might be within the within the caucus you
Carter
45:30
don't have to go and do a leadership review a la you
Carter
45:33
you know the the ucp in early november um you have you can do some other things and and i think that that's where the the british system has some some wisdom the other thing that the british system has some wisdom on is narrowing it down to the top two candidates for the leadership vote um
Carter
45:50
um the conservatives Conservatives just did that, and that
Carter
45:54
that seems to have worked. That seems pretty interesting, rather than having the members being able to vote on everybody.
Carter
46:01
Less work for people like me, though, so probably a shitty idea now that I've spoken in it aloud.
Zain
46:06
Corey, anything we can learn from the Brits on this?
Corey
46:10
No, it's a rainy island with no good ideas.
Zain
46:13
what I thought. Final question, Carter. Carter. Is there any room for the bloc, the NDP, the conservatives on this palace intrigue, naval gazing, whoever knows how long, who knows how long it takes situation with the PMO and his, the PMO, the PM and his people? Is there a role for them here or no? Well,
Carter
46:33
Well, I mean, there
Carter
46:34
there could be another non-confidence vote next week.
Carter
46:38
You need to find, I mean, if I was Pierre Palliev, I'd be putting up another non-confidence vote together and saying saying to the bloc and the NDP, listen, I think everybody agrees we are better off fighting an election against Justin Trudeau today than fighting an election against someone else tomorrow. So the prime minister, if he's going to step down, has only one choice, and that is to prorogue. The opposition have only one choice, and that is to get a motion of non-confidence across the goal bull line. Those are the two next plays that we see. And I think that that's where, you know, liberal MPs, you know,
Carter
47:19
know, one of the arguments I would be making would be to say, it's not going to get any better. It's only going to get worse. Perhaps our best bet is to face an election today.
Zain
47:30
Carter, that's an interesting point. I mean, I think at
Zain
47:33
at this junction though, Corey, do you feel like we're in this, like from your perspective, do you feel like we We are headed for something that is a lot more guaranteed to result in a non-confidence vote today based on what's happened than
Zain
47:50
than not with whatever has happened on Thanksgiving weekend? Or do you feel like it's the same odds?
Corey
47:56
I think it's the same odds because self-preservation is what's driving this. And so why would you self-preserve in one area and then be self
Corey
48:05
self-defeating or suicidal, politically at least, in another? other like you you're gonna still vote confidence in the government like and
Corey
48:13
and if you're Pierre Poliev you
Corey
48:15
you can't think well maybe I can rattle a couple of votes loose maybe that happens in some extreme examples where people's
Corey
48:23
people's emotions get the better of them and they say you know what fuck it I'm taking my ball and I'm going home
Corey
48:27
but that seems very improbable to me and if it does happen it's because the MPs have lost the plot entirely they've they've lost focus on their goals if I'm I'm Pierre Poliev. I'm not thinking about it in terms of this makes non-confidence more likely. I'm thinking about it in terms of, I
Corey
48:41
I could have a little bit of fun here. Like there's some things I could do where I can put the liberal MPs into awkward situations where they basically have to swear fealty to
Corey
48:50
to this man, Justin Trudeau, that I know they don't really like. And that's going to create some tensions behind the scenes. And even if I don't get to see them, I know it's taken up a lot of their time and that's great because that's time that they're not getting and their act together for the next election and
Corey
49:03
and yeah i don't i don't really know the mechanism through which it would be done but i'd love to i just i think because it would be fun i would love to see the conservatives try to to craft some motions along the lines of yeah
Corey
49:15
yeah you know you support the prime minister or like you have you have non-confident you have confidence in the government but not in the prime minister or something to that effect
Corey
49:24
and then force people really to put their chips on the table or at least eat a bunch of shit when they don't because they can't because they know that would be self-defeating like if i were pierre polyev i would just be playing with them right now whenever your opponent is going through these kinds of like throws then yeah just
Corey
49:41
just you know poke it a little bit try not to try not to get wrestled to the ground with it but just you know poke it we're
Zain
49:48
we're gonna move it on steven carter to our over under and our lightning round the elongated version steven carter elongated oh yes it's elongated it's just like it
Zain
49:59
should be exciting elongation is excitement in a direct correlation Stephen Carter here's my simple question that I want to explore a bit
Zain
50:08
you said earlier that you know in your team sort of analysis that the
Zain
50:16
the campaign director has
Zain
50:18
has been swapped doesn't
Zain
50:20
doesn't matter the polls are the only thing that does matter here like it's we're still still heading to the same direction, the same territory. So the simple question I want to explore, one that I don't know if we've done on this particular podcast before, which surprises me, but Stephen Carter, campaign directors, overrated or underrated?
Carter
50:42
Oh man, you asshole. I think that they are underrated. I think that someone who can see the field and uh is able to put together a good strategy is worth their weight in gold and uh
Carter
50:59
you know i think that the campaign strategy you know the campaign strategist national director whatever title you wish to bestow upon them is is probably the uh second or third most important person on the campaign cory
Zain
51:13
i'll get your top line answer then i want to push back a bit campaign Campaign directors, from
Zain
51:18
from everything we've discussed here, I'm not saying this is the only example of, you know, campaign directors. We're talking about Bevan being appointed and Carter suggesting that, you know, shit's still going to be the same, overrated
Corey
51:31
Overrated, the title for sure. Like, it's so dependent on the authorities you actually give the individual. And look,
Corey
51:39
look, what's important in any campaign is that it is strategically well thought out. It is tactically well executed. And how you do that is, I don't know, maybe you have a campaign director that's doing nothing but HR components of it, making sure that you're managing those various pieces or the finance components, allocating the money to the things that you think are, or maybe have already been agreed to by a different committee. That's not important. The structure is not important. The title is not important. The roles that the, that the, you know, the position fills is important. I do
Corey
52:11
do think we tend to inflate the importance of this individual appointment, but I'll tell you something. You could have just an okay campaign director, but if there's a brilliant campaign strategist sitting right by their elbow,
Corey
52:25
that matters. That matters more than if that person is the campaign director in title. Yeah.
Zain
52:30
Carter, I guess at the heart of my question is, at a certain point, the entire team,
Zain
52:36
creative, campaign, comms, field, matters
Zain
52:40
matters less than where the moment is, right? And so it's almost like acute to this situation, I guess I'm asking, which is the liberals could find the international rock stars, using Corey's term, of every position, the best ad maker that's ever ever existed, living or dead. The best campaign director, living or dead. Strategist, living or dead. And none of that matters. So
Corey
53:03
So I disagree. I actually think that person could
Zain
53:06
could win the campaign. This is a conversation I want to have. At what point does it tip over, Carter? If we were adding the international best for the liberals right now across, let's say, the top 10 positions on a national campaign, do you feel like that recruitment would fundamentally change the game for the liberals or you're still saying no um
Carter
53:25
it really depends on how much control they're given if
Carter
53:28
if they are given this prime minister's office with this prime minister's direction then probably not you
Carter
53:35
need to have a new way of thinking about the election people don't care what you gave them before they're asking for what they're you're going to give them now and
Carter
53:44
and they haven't been able to make that transition very well um
Carter
53:48
um pierre polyev has made that tradition or transition. So I'm not sure that the best people in the world are going to change things unless the mindset of the leader changes. And the mindset of the leader may change, and that's why he brought in all of these people. But right now, it doesn't appear to be changing.
Carter
54:09
is tough stuff, right? There are some elections, and I think I said to you guys after the jenny sims election there are some elections you are never going to win you're just simply not destined to be able to do it and i think that the liberals are close very close under this leader to being in that absolute situation so
Corey
54:32
so can i ask you because this is a question that elicited my response right it
Corey
54:38
sounds like you're saying you don't think the liberals have passed that point i I actually don't believe they've passed that point, personally.
Corey
54:44
personally. I think it's so exceedingly unlikely that for day-to-day purposes, you can assume you're going to have a Pierre Polyev government next year, right? Oh,
Corey
54:53
We're talking like the longest of fucking odds here.
Corey
54:57
I mean, I guess I already have Stephen. Zane, do you think they're cooked? Like, do you think there's any way the liberals can win this campaign?
Corey
55:05
Because I think that that fundamentally is
Corey
55:07
is the difference in answers and difference in perspectives on this particular question of yours here. I
Corey
55:12
I think that it is possible for them to win it. I think, again, the longest possible odds. And I think if you had 10 of the best people in the world empowered, as Stephen said, yeah,
Corey
55:23
Campaigns do matter. You're
Carter
55:24
You're talking about empowered. This does not appear to be the situation. But
Zain
55:29
But let's explore this though. Let's explore – let's just make a few assumptions and then talk about the strategic – Guys, do we need to do another
Corey
55:35
another liberal strategy session? Oh,
Zain
55:37
Oh, do we ever.
Zain
55:40
Here's the thing. Carter, let's just assume that they are empowered.
Zain
55:44
Which would be the top three positions that you would recruit for the international pool of all-stars to help rehabilitate this liberal campaign? Okay. So you guys are on a train that says, maybe this is possible. I don't give you 10, I give you three. What are the three? In which order? Three titles? Yeah. Well,
Zain
56:04
right? You could choose between the field, ad maker, you could choose the comms person, you could choose the campaign director, you could choose a strategist. Give me your three in order.
Zain
56:12
order. Who would it be? Is it air, war, is it ground? I want to just get your thinking on this through this question.
Carter
56:19
Chief of staff to the prime minister. okay
Zain
56:21
you i see you not really a campaign position but i was gonna say like i get what you're saying i'll give it to you cannot
Carter
56:27
cannot cannot be done without the camp without the government without all the levers of government working for you and
Carter
56:35
and the only person who can bring all the levers of government working for you is the chief of staff to the prime minister can't be done without it second
Carter
56:42
second person would be the a campaign strategist like a real campaign strategist um someone
Carter
56:50
someone who understands how to move uh regions of people uh and regions of people is super duper hard to move you know like we talk about the alberta regions there's british columbia regions um i mean we're talking the whole fucking country and that's a super hard strategy to implement um and
Carter
57:12
probably the third thing would be someone who's an excellent ad cutter
Zain
57:16
and yeah that's number three so you are going with chief of staff campaign strategist and advertising um
Zain
57:22
creative or sort of lead advertising um creative cory what
Zain
57:28
what are your three and in which order give me any in order i should say yeah
Corey
57:31
yeah yeah you know you've somewhat sold me on the chief of staffing not because it would give you the levers of government but because that seems to be a real fail point for liberals right now like the ability to facilitate facilitate across all of these various groups of people and i think that's a natural role for the chief of staff both within government and and beyond but i will say for me it is
Corey
57:55
it's like it's impossible for me not to put strategy one um simply because for how long have we been saying i can't fucking figure out what they're trying to do here like i and i think that's a real problem like that's not like a super sneaky secret strategy that's a that's
Corey
58:09
that's a problem You should be able to tell what their goal is and how they're trying to put it together and how they're positioning themselves. So that has to be number one. But like 1A for me, because I think storytelling is such an essential component of it, is comms, which, you know, as a comms guy, that's pretty self-serving. But they need to figure out the story of not just this government, but what a future liberal government would be like, really a future liberal government to a point Stevens made a couple of times here. What do you get? And that story then needs to be driven through everything. And yes, it needs to be driven through the ads. And yes, it needs to be, you know, implemented through all sorts of candidate materials and whatnot. not but if you just had a really crystal clear vision of both strategy and communications i actually think that most of those other pieces would fall away and you wouldn't have too too much to worry about there in terms of the third position um i
Corey
59:02
i don't know digital man like they're getting just absolutely fucking crushed it's
Zain
59:07
it's like organic day-to-day
Corey
59:10
i think i'm looking at that space between organic and paid gotcha but they're just they're not they're they're getting crushed in the digital ad spends right now. They're getting crushed in the quality of their digital right now. And I think in terms of the various channels that they need to tighten up on, it's that like, that's, that's unconscionable that the conservatives are running 30 circles around them for everyone they managed to do. And they, they need to find somebody who can really help them pick up. I feel like they're in a different, it's so funny how quickly this stuff moves because what was cutting edge 10 fucking years ago, if you're still like, we talked about this the other day, like if you're still trying to hit those dopamine centers, you're losing. You're running a losing path. They seem to be playing a game that went stale 10 years ago.
Zain
59:51
I noticed, to Corey's last point, neither of you said a world-class campaign
Corey
1:00:01
fundraiser. That's actually probably a bit of a miss, but one of the challenges- I'm just reacting.
Zain
1:00:07
like I would have had it on my list. I'm not trying to trump you guys,
Corey
1:00:09
but I'm just saying- No, you said the three most important. Important.
Corey
1:00:12
Money is the currency of politics though, Zane. That is what I've heard. That's a great point. Carter,
Zain
1:00:15
Carter, would you change your list with a fundraiser or no?
Carter
1:00:22
Oh, interesting. Why? Tell me.
Carter
1:00:24
Because I think that the three spots that I've listed, I mean, Corey and I both hit on strategists and communications for a very strong reason, right? I made it more specific and made it an ad cutter. But if you don't have those two skills, I don't care how much money you have. I've had half the money, right? We spent half of what Jeremy Farkas spent, beat him. We spent a third of what Rick McIver spent,
Carter
1:00:49
beat him. On a
Zain
1:00:50
is that like a 10-year old way of thinking that the- No, you
Carter
1:00:54
you got to do what you got to do.
Carter
1:00:56
And if you don't have enough money, you got to do it without enough money.
Zain
1:01:00
Corey, what do you think? Would you change your response to make room for a world-class fundraiser? or are you and fifteen
Carter
1:01:07
fifteen hundred dollar donations per yeah
Carter
1:01:09
yeah i mean that's the challenge is the
Corey
1:01:11
the limits right yeah
Zain
1:01:13
it's not like in it's not like
Corey
1:01:15
like the people in the united states where you can go in and have a fundraiser that's like a hundred thousand dollars from one person cut between all of these various super packs and whatnot so if you're going to do the grassroots fundraising so much of it relies on your communications and the stories that you're telling in the narrative anyhow so i think you'd still get a little bit of benefit and i'm not i'm not willing to bump the digital person for a fundraiser. Although I will say, nothing
Corey
1:01:39
nothing sucks like having a campaign with no money.
Corey
1:01:42
But I don't know that that's the liberals most pressing concern. I think ultimately,
Corey
1:01:47
the money will come if they can figure out their strategy and their story.
Zain
1:01:51
You know, one of the things I would suggest to the liberals is selling their watch and buying a hairbrush in return. I feel
Corey
1:01:58
feel like- Be careful. Be careful. Yeah, be careful. It's like, what if they don't have hair anymore?
Carter
1:02:01
What the hell would you need a hairbrush for?
Corey
1:02:04
what would you need
Zain
1:02:04
need a hairbrush for it's a parable of story i
Zain
1:02:09
like it we're gonna leave it there that's a wrap on episode 1829 of the strategist my name is zane velgey with me as always cory hogan stephen carter and we'll see you next time