Transcript
Zain
0:01
This is a Strategist episode 1809. My name is Zain Velji. With me as always, Corey Hogan, Stephen Carter. It's been a while, guys. It has been too long.
Corey
0:11
you, not for us. We were here last week. We
Zain
0:14
We weren't. People might be asking where I was.
Zain
0:17
There is an opening, Corey, and
Zain
0:18
and I've applied. I've actually taken two weeks off. I'm taking a hiatus. I'm learning everything I can about the airline industry. industry and then i'm unlearning it and then applying to be ceo of flare airlines cory because there's an opening oh
Zain
0:34
it's very exciting carter
Corey
0:35
carter um that's an opening brought to you by flare airlines well yeah
Zain
0:39
yeah listen listen let me tell you something not anymore let me tell you something carter uh we need
Zain
0:44
need to mobilize the pod on this how do we ensure that zayn velji for leader finally finds his post as ceo of flare airlines and i don't mean myself just saw him clear for those new to the show no you
Corey
0:57
you mean zane velgey for leader correct
Zain
0:58
correct that's it that's a different it's a character that embodied me but is not me i
Corey
1:02
i understand you're keen yeah to jump on to that next thing but we're pretty busy right now zane velgey for leader is running for mayor of calgary with go calgary so if
Corey
1:11
if you uh if you go to go calgary.ca which
Corey
1:14
which i'm not sure if you have zane so i want to watch your face as you do that right now tell me
Zain
1:18
me to look at the skull cut uh
Corey
1:20
i think uh i think you'll understand that we've got a we got a kind of sequence we got bigger Figure fish to
Corey
1:25
Yeah, one at a time. It's a giant shaft. One at a time.
Corey
1:29
No, that's called the Calgary Tower. Okay, well, sorry.
Corey
1:32
sorry. I had to scroll.
Zain
1:34
I had to scroll, and then I could tell it was the tower. Okay, wow.
Corey
1:37
wow. Well, just keep scrolling. Yeah. Just keep scrolling. We are leaders
Zain
1:40
leaders in Velji. Standard issue photo. Thank you to the folks at Avenue Magazine for that. Oh, campaign song.
Zain
1:49
Velji Strong. Yeah. Can I listen to
Corey
1:53
it'll go into my headphones I'm not going to be able to it'll go into your headphones actually Zane if you don't mind looping on that song for about I
Corey
2:02
I don't know 20 minutes Stephen and I have some things we need to talk about how about I do that how about I go listen to
Zain
2:08
to this campaign song and
Corey
2:09
and I'll let you guys I'll
Zain
2:10
I'll let you guys go I mean
Zain
2:12
mean naturally if it's about me why would it not be on loop I
Zain
2:17
only can assume it's about me unless and this would be even better or it is not about me.
Corey
2:25
going to have to listen.
Zain
2:25
listen. Okay, well, I'm just going to go right now. You go listen.
Zain
2:28
I'm going to go right now. You guys, you guys, you're sure you'll have something to fill the time?
Carter
2:35
thing. Maybe. One thing. You think so? Just don't leave us too long. We don't want to talk. Just stay close.
Zain
2:39
close. Yeah, I won't leave you on the tarmac. That's all we're going to say. It's one of the things I've learned. It's one of the things I will embody if the Go Calgary doesn't work. So how about I listen to the song and then maybe you guys can fill the time.
Corey
2:50
That sounds great. right that sounds wonderful okay
Corey
2:54
okay he's fucking gone yeah
Corey
2:55
we're gonna talk about this nenshi shit what
Corey
2:59
notley just do i guess why am i even calling it this nenshi shit it's
Carter
3:03
it's not nenshi it's not nenshi it's all rachel rachel decides to unload hold on the last day
Carter
3:10
day you set it up you set it
Corey
3:13
it up you set it up okay i'll set it up you're not doing it you i
Carter
3:16
i did it wrong you do why don't you try okay
Corey
3:20
there is a there's a column there's a column by a columnist don
Corey
3:24
don braid you're doing it
Corey
3:26
okay you go you go don
Carter
3:27
don braid wrote this column and and in it rachel notley in her outgoing uh outgoing interview as the ndp leader decides that she's not going to talk about her legacy she's not going to talk about where you know she brought brought the party from from two seats to uh to government and and now the largest opposition in alberta his no she's not going to talk about that instead she decides she's going to unload on the prohibitive favorite uh who's going to win the leadership in uh how many hours cory 20 20 yeah
Corey
4:00
yeah we're we're in hours at this point yeah
Carter
4:02
yeah i mean come on 40 some odd hours and he's going to win the leadership and she decides to fucking unload gonna
Corey
4:09
gonna win with 83 percent you're
Carter
4:11
you're telling me it's
Corey
4:12
any less than that uh the campaign will not have met expectations but
Corey
4:17
it's fucking it's okay let
Corey
4:19
let me tell you something i will say this okay
Corey
4:22
i i you know this is live this is live this is happening in front of us we haven't gathered facts from all parties we haven't heard all stories here all sides it
Corey
4:31
it is possible don bray just heard something and latched onto it and win it is
Carter
4:36
is possible yeah okay this
Corey
4:38
this is one of alberta's most seasoned politicians so i'm not sure we can call that the most likely possibility
Carter
4:44
no i think the most likely possibility is that rachel notley is pissed that the alberta party came in and took over her party and
Carter
4:54
you know as a result she decided to to lay into the alberta party i mean she not only throws shade And this isn't even Nahed Nenshi's central idea. I mean, he doesn't, in my reading of this leadership, he doesn't have a central idea. But one of the pieces of the puzzle is that he's going to remove the relationship between the provincial New Democratic Party and the federal New Democratic Party, currently led by Jagmeet Singh. saying so he's going to leave that that's one of the things he said one or a few times but it's not a central theme of his campaign and she just fucking laid into him and then not only that cory cory not only that not she decided to say i don't think he's got as many supporters as he thinks he has well
Corey
5:41
well that's crazy okay so can we take these one at a time okay one
Carter
5:44
one at a time headline first
Corey
5:46
notley blast nancy plan to divorce from federal ndp as leadership vote nears finish wow what a great headline two days before the leadership votes announced fucking good for everybody good for her and her party tomorrow she's got her like celebration tomorrow good for i'm
Corey
6:01
i'm going are you going democrats no i wasn't planning to yeah you should
Carter
6:05
buy a ticket so you and i can go together and watch this now i kind of want to
Corey
6:09
to go to it i
Corey
6:12
this might be really super interesting here this
Carter
6:15
opening i give you my second ticket but heather's pretty excited to watch the shit
Corey
6:18
shit show too yeah it's bring popcorn folks because uh jagmeet singh's gonna be there right
Corey
6:24
what's gonna happen uh listen we'll get to it what
Carter
6:28
what would you advise first quote
Corey
6:30
first quote that starts
Corey
6:31
silly superficial short-sighted that's rachel notley's view of splitting the alberta ndp from the federal party voiced two days before the vote to replace her will be revealed wow
Corey
6:45
to your point, she then goes on to say, so
Corey
6:49
so what has Nahed Nenshi done that has been like arguably the best thing for the NDP in Alberta?
Corey
6:55
He's expanded the tent. He's grown the party. People can look at it and say, not the same NDP. And her quote is basically, you know what? He hasn't actually sold that many new memberships. these were all people that were engaged with the party anyhow he may be not going to do as well as you think being the subtext here what
Carter
7:13
what well and what's going to happen i mean there's going to be two days we'll have the answer in two days when 83 percent of the vote 83 percent of the vote anything less would be a failure yeah
Corey
7:23
yeah failure cory fucking failure because that's how clear the victory is at this point oh
Carter
7:29
oh my god what was she thinking i
Carter
7:31
i don't know no
Corey
7:32
like it's a lot it's a lot it's
Corey
7:34
it's a lot to kind of process and so you know there are two questions can i can i turn this into a mini segment here zane looks like he's really into the song by the way
Carter
7:42
way he's really enjoying it like the way he's like bobbing there's
Corey
7:45
there's some swaying going
Carter
7:48
i mean it's a pretty good song it's
Corey
7:49
it's a pretty good song yeah
Corey
7:51
two questions for you yeah
Corey
7:54
i'm gonna put them both on the table and i'm actually gonna ask you to answer them one
Corey
7:59
would she do this at all question
Corey
8:04
go on question one why
Corey
8:06
why would you throw theories on the table throw theories on the table that's theories
Carter
8:09
theories on the table she thinks that this is going to be a her her word alone is going to make this a poison pill that
Carter
8:16
that she is going to essentially by saying that this should be a non-starter it immediately becomes a non-starter Because she's got such loyalty within her grasp of the party that Nahid Nenshi will immediately have to reverse his existing position vis-a-vis the relationship
Carter
8:38
relationship with the federal party. And just because she says it, it's going to actually happen. Well,
Corey
8:45
Well, so can I just say, breaking
Corey
8:46
breaking my own rules, then I guess the why now would be,
Corey
8:50
it's too late to influence the party like the outcome but she's still leader and so this is probably the moment of maximum authority she'll have in the party because then it's all over in two days right is that maximum authority
Carter
9:00
authority in the party about i don't know a year ago when you lost the fucking election certainly
Corey
9:05
certainly but i guess i'm saying since the start of the leadership content since this idea was thrown on the table right that
Corey
9:11
that then this is where it's like well if i jump in at the start of the contest it looks like i'm putting my thumb on the scale but most of the the voting's done but
Carter
9:18
but 83 of the
Corey
9:20
the votes if zane's done his job well have already been cast for not but who
Carter
9:23
who threw this on the table rocky
Corey
9:28
but not in the way like actually there's a little ambiguity all the way through but because you know what rocky said was uh it
Corey
9:33
it was going to be you have a choice right like it's not automatic to join the federal ndp and oh
Carter
9:40
oh well that just that is that totally changes but that's like that's
Corey
9:44
that's kind of like the the most mild version of separation you can possibly imagine it just gives people choice it says you don't have to be a member of the federal still was
Carter
9:51
was not even like now had then she is a follower on this he's not even the primary instigator and and suddenly you know guns rachel not least coming right out at him i
Carter
10:03
mean yeah so why now why now because she's impotent after this weekend this is it she has no there's no one lining up like don braid lining up to do an interview with Rachel Notley only exists today it does not exist on Sunday there
Carter
10:21
there are no more interviews on Sunday zero so her last chance her last gasp is at this particular moment and she chose it again instead of instead of building herself up instead of talking about the amazing things that she did achieve she's now talking about something that frankly is going to have have zero impact on how the ndp actually functions and how according to her own feeling even if he did this you'd still be the ndp so what the fuck are you wasting your time wasting your breath on this particular at this moment in time it just makes no sense sure
Corey
10:57
sure so maybe she's not right like so then let's just kind of put the let's put a couple of other theories on the table here okay
Corey
11:03
good theory number two i already talked about which is this was actually not her intention And I would say, man, she's a little rusty then because she is a very seasoned politician. And so for
Carter
11:12
for her to accidentally
Corey
11:12
accidentally give real news like this to a columnist like this is amazing controversy at a moment where people are talking about Jagmeet Singh attending the tribute for Rachel Notley, right? right? Like, I cannot believe that, you know, this is again, Occam's razor. I almost can't believe that she would accidentally do this, but that's a possibility, right? The leadership race has moved focus elsewhere. Staff is elsewhere. You don't get the same sign of supports. You're not doing the media interviews every day. Maybe you're even thinking this is a valedictory piece, as you said. Maybe I can say a bunch of things. Maybe I can trust Don Brady to write the piece. He's crazy,
Corey
11:50
crazy, but maybe I can trust him to write the
Carter
11:51
the piece. He won't take the newsy bit. He'll take the bit. No, he won't take the
Corey
11:55
the newsy bit. He'll take
Carter
11:56
take the nice. He's a columnist.
Carter
11:57
He's a columnist. He doesn't break stories anymore. He's three, 400 years old. You know, this isn't going to be news. He may not even remember what I said.
Carter
12:08
So that's theory two.
Corey
12:10
I just want to throw on.
Corey
12:12
That's good. And so then I guess the question becomes, why now becomes like, well, because this is when it happened. So that's pretty easy. Theory number three, though, is
Corey
12:19
is this is a bit of a fuck you to not head Nenshi slash signal that she wants to vote for somebody else. But then the why now becomes insane.
Corey
12:27
Because then really why now? Like if you wanted to influence the race in some way, shape or form, this is not the time. Why would you bother? So I guess the point I was trying to drive at here is we've put three theories on the table and none of them seem plausible to me.
Corey
12:42
None of them seem plausible to me. No,
Carter
12:44
No, because this is ridiculous. It is utterly and completely ridiculous. And here's what I want to know. Is it designed to hurt Nahid Nenshi?
Corey
12:54
Or maybe here's theory four, it's designed to help. I
Corey
12:57
I don't know. How does
Carter
12:58
does this help Nahid Nenshi?
Carter
13:04
Because I don't think it, I think that anything that puts distance between Nahid Nenshi and Rachel Notley is a mistake, right?
Carter
13:11
Because Rachel Notley has to hand over her popularity in Edmonton and her popularity in Calgary to Nahid. Nahid is not some, you know, like this, this idea that Nahid is universally loved by all Calgarians. If that were the case, he would have sold a hell of a lot more than 83 percent of the memberships that were sold in the NDP leadership race. He is loved by some Calgarians, but certainly not all Calgarians. Rachel Notley is supposed to be handing off to him her brand value plus
Carter
13:43
plus his brand value equals NDP new brand value.
Carter
13:47
That's supposed to be how this, how leaderships work. You and I have seen how many leaderships combined now between the two of us? Four or five hundred?
Corey
13:55
Four or five, for sure. Hundred. Okay, well, if
Corey
13:59
hundreds... Many. Like, basically many, you know? In ancient counting systems of, like, one too many, it's many. It's
Corey
14:07
It's dozens of years, dozens of contests, sure. I
Carter
14:10
I mean, and I'm ancient. I've seen this. You're very old. I've seen
Carter
14:13
seen a lot of this. And I
Carter
14:14
I have never seen
Carter
14:16
seen an outgoing leader shit
Carter
14:18
shit on an incoming leader the day, two days before.
Corey
14:21
It's inexplicable to me. me but like you know let's
Corey
14:24
let's just say it was designed to help nahi can i give you two ways that it might have been helpful to nahid oh
Carter
14:31
oh sure and while you're doing this would you like to read me a fairy tale well
Corey
14:35
well i'm not sure i believe them but i want to throw them on the table because we just gave three reasons it was designed maybe to hurt or not but all of them seem crazy one is it says fuck it's just so hard it's like hard to reconcile the two but like ultimately if
Corey
14:51
if she's saying like oh it's not a bunch it's not a takeover it's not a bunch of new people these were new democrats it basically says it's not a takeover by nahid naji right right this is supporters of nahid that's there maybe that's one way it was attempting to be helpful the
Zain
15:04
the other way is to say he's doing something i don't
Corey
15:08
don't like creating a bit of a break with the
Corey
15:13
maybe you know what you and i have had conversations on mic and off mic about how Now, perhaps one of the things that the NDP need in this leadership race, we've said this for months, more off mic than on mic, is maybe there needs to be a few tiers, right? If you want Albertans to look at the party and say, it's very different, maybe you need a bit of conflict. Maybe you need the sense of takeover, the sense that you're getting rid of one of the values. So Albertans can look at it and say, wow,
Corey
15:41
wow, the stalwarts didn't want to do that. It was the stalwarts I had trouble with. But now this new NDP, which is functionally identical, except it doesn't have this tie, clearly different because look at all the controversy there.
Carter
15:53
Yeah, this isn't the right time to do the controversy though, right?
Carter
15:57
right? Like this is the time when you have to actually have a powerful leadership turnover.
Carter
16:07
And this isn't the time. Like
Carter
16:10
what level does this even make sense? First of all, it's going to be June the 20th. It's June the 20th today. June the 22nd when the leadership comes.
Carter
16:20
it's wasted if this is actually designed to create controversy. It's going to last.
Corey
16:25
Okay. Let me ask you another question. Please,
Corey
16:27
Because we've now had four theories that we disagree with. We've yet to come up with one we do. Yeah.
Corey
16:33
But let me just go back to the one of this was a mistake. She was rusty. Oh,
Carter
16:38
yeah. Okay. One of the most political experiences. Okay. Okay, please continue.
Corey
16:44
I guess we'll know in the first or in the next couple of days because there will likely need to be steps to clean it up. What are those steps? How can you clean it up if this was a mistake?
Corey
16:57
What would you do?
Carter
16:58
Oh my God, I don't know how to clean this.
Carter
17:02
Hang on, hang on, hang on. That's a really good question. Hang on.
Carter
17:06
I'm supposed to have an answer to all the questions. You
Corey
17:08
You are. It's like your
Carter
17:09
your one role on this show.
Corey
17:10
How do you clean this?
Carter
17:14
words were taken out of context.
Carter
17:17
I didn't mean to insinuate that Nahid Nenshi wanted to separate from the federal NDP. What I mean to do is that it shouldn't be conducted in a reckless manner.
Carter
17:32
What has to happen would need to be well thought through, would need the input of all party members at least one more time. and uh especially with this new larger membership group we don't want to just go rushing into a decision uh that could impact generations of new democratic supporters and
Corey
17:53
and then the comments about the 70 000 known you could say just to build on that that was in reference to the fact that this was not a takeover but this was not had nancy getting people who are supporters of the new democrats to take the next step or whoever sold the membership i guess we
Carter
18:07
we had a million voters last time we
Carter
18:10
had a million voters we
Corey
18:11
we had a million voters a million voters 70
Carter
18:14
70 000 people choosing to join the party i mean that's a great leadership that's a great but i got a million voters to vote for the new democratic party of alberta yeah
Corey
18:22
yeah but we know this is not a take back alberta takeover we know this is not a bunch of people who are not aligned with our values these are people who have voted for us in the past donated to us in the past had memberships in in many cases in the past these are new democrats choosing the next new democratic leader and that was my point it is unfortunate it was taken out of context yeah
Carter
18:42
yeah real shame that people you know that don braid you know at his advanced years it was unable to understand what we actually meant
Corey
18:51
i don't know if at the end you need to do that you
Carter
18:53
you don't want to do the last bit yeah
Carter
18:55
have you seen don the
Corey
18:56
the ageism though that's
Carter
18:58
that's inherent it's the age and so i got in trouble okay that's
Corey
19:01
that's that's what's happening i
Carter
19:02
see what i did wrong i see what i did wrong yeah
Corey
19:04
yeah hey uh zane still looks a hundred percent into this like a hundred percent but it's
Carter
19:10
it's just embarrassing but
Corey
19:12
but if we can gather his attention which
Corey
19:15
actually not convinced we can do you wave i'll be waving we're all waiting
Zain
19:19
we're all waiting let
Zain
19:20
tell you something let
Corey
19:22
hold on actually zane took me like put it back in i just thought of another question i have for steven the The bass line is from the UCP song.
Zain
19:30
That is amazing. That is so funny.
Corey
19:36
Okay. I just realized something, though, Stephen. Well, okay. I didn't ask you. Probably one of the more important questions you could ask.
Zain
19:45
What the fuck do you do if you're not hitting Nenshi now?
Carter
19:49
You know what I wanted to do? You know what I wanted to do? And this isn't what you should do. but what i wanted to do because i'm small and petulant yeah
Carter
19:58
like don't go to the thing tomorrow like can you imagine if all your supporters just didn't go tomorrow
Corey
20:06
would be so harsh like you do not want to bring that drama into the start
Carter
20:10
start of your why
Carter
20:12
don't you why don't you want the distance between the loser and
Carter
20:15
and the winner why
Carter
20:17
why don't you want because you're going to show up on saturday saturday is your big night. This is Rachel's big night. And Rachel decided to take a big old turd on your front step.
Carter
20:27
I'm like, you know what?
Carter
20:30
Maybe it's better off. Maybe it's better off if we don't go. If this is the way you're going to treat me and my supporters, maybe it's best if we just wait until Saturday and we do our thing on Saturday night.
Carter
20:46
Jagmeet Singh can speak to the people who are were in the room who supported what
Carter
20:50
what rachel notley is setting two
Corey
20:52
two follow-on questions there yeah
Corey
20:57
you're not hedonistic sounds like you want to create you you're trying to elevate it like you're not trying to downplay it you're you're trying to be like this is actually a problem i am actually pissed about this oh
Carter
21:07
oh i think so interesting
Carter
21:08
interesting tell you why show me your why because every good crisis is an opportunity this
Carter
21:13
this is an opportunity to show leadership right now no, I'm the leader. I'm in charge. And if this party is going to leave the NDP, it'll be because I choose to, not because Rachel Notley is admonishing us from the sidelines. If we choose not to, it's because I choose not to. This is a choice that's going to be made by the leader and the membership, not the outgoing leader and a small group of her supporters who write her media messaging this
Carter
21:44
this is this is far too important to leave it on the sidelines we have to get you know we have to get to the bottom of this right away and the best way the only way uh to really do that is to uh jump on to uh
Carter
21:59
uh jump into this and and and create the fight i i love the fight like let's go oh
Corey
22:04
oh man i just don't know if i want a big messy fight when i'm you didn't
Carter
22:09
didn't seem to be the leader you didn't
Carter
22:11
didn't ask for the fight you didn't
Corey
22:12
didn't ask for the fight but
Carter
22:13
but the fight came to your doorstep never
Carter
22:15
never before has an outgoing leader decided to so publicly humiliate an incoming leader
Carter
22:24
and let's be clear i mean how many people even show up to rachel notley's thing tomorrow at whatever venue it's at how many people actually show up if
Carter
22:35
if not then she says don't go
Corey
22:39
that would be a real shame i think but can i get that i do want to throw my second question on the table here okay
Carter
22:44
okay i'm just saying like he's the big dog right now yeah
Corey
22:47
yeah you're not head menchi say you do show up you're
Corey
22:51
you're now in a room with jagmeet sing as
Corey
22:54
as like as well like what for
Corey
22:57
for sure you have to assume people are going to try to snap a picture of you and him together what's it mean is it going to be like one of those trudeau kenny handshakes like what
Corey
23:05
what the fuck does this look like Like, how do
Corey
23:07
do you approach that? How do you approach Rachel in the room if you're not hedonistic? Let's just say your
Corey
23:14
your good advice has been ignored because I was there too and I said, you don't want that drama. Show up. You know, my political mentor was a woman named Pat Raymaker and she said the secret to politics is walking into a room of people who hate you and being able to smile. And say you decided to do that instead, right? right?
Corey
23:35
now you're in a room with Jagmeet Singh and Rachel Notley.
Corey
23:39
How are you in a very public setting engaging with both of those people?
Carter
23:44
That's one of the reasons I think he shouldn't go, but how would I deal with it? I mean, I would be, I mean, the only thing, if you're going to be in that room, you got to be the bigger man.
Carter
23:54
You got to be the bigger man. You got to pretend that, that, you know, obviously she was quoted out of context. And, you know, I'm sure Rachel Notley just simply wants the best for the new democratic party uh regardless of what that that outcome is uh she's always worked for what's best for the alberta for the alberta new democrats uh and she will continue i'm sure uh to be a valued voice into the future um regardless of the decisions that i and the membership make well
Corey
24:22
well if anyone yeah i'm just pretending to be not ahead here if anyone has earned the right to have their voice heard in this party it's rachel notley i i disagree and i think it's up to the membership to make that final determination that's their right as members here uh do i think that um well
Corey
24:41
well i'm gonna leave it there i'm not sure how you deal with jagmeet singh in the room do
Corey
24:45
do you shake ignore
Corey
24:47
so you just pull a canada you do what canada does with jagmeet singh
Carter
24:51
ignores him right like i mean the media will not be near him there will be no i
Corey
24:57
think media kind of like disappear when they get into his yeah they
Carter
25:00
they Like there's some sort of thing where he walks into a room and the media, all their cameras shut down. Have
Corey
25:05
Have we considered using him for a bank heist before? We
Carter
25:07
We should, because the cameras no longer work and people don't remember if he was even in the room.
Corey
25:14
Okay. Final question. Okay. Because Zane looks like he's actually losing interest in the baseline at this point.
Corey
25:23
Not just about the room. him how
Corey
25:27
does he how if at all does uh now how did he respond to this
Corey
25:36
he respond to this i
Carter
25:37
i really like the conflict i
Carter
25:40
think this is one of those opportunities where the the uh opportunity for conflict is really strong and you should take advantage never waste a good crisis um so you should respond to it now you could respond to it by simply saying you know this is
Carter
25:58
is a difficult time for rachel i know that she's put her her whole life her whole heart and soul into this party and uh it must be a difficult time um i'm certainly not not too fussed with what she said because at the end of the day this won't be my decision it'll be the decision of me the members the executive and all the others in the party the the second way of saying it is hey you know what uh
Carter
26:25
rachel notley's political antenna not that strong not
Carter
26:29
not the person i'm going to look not the
Carter
26:31
the person i'm going to look to to try and determine whether or not uh i
Corey
26:36
i hate the drama
Carter
26:38
love the drama i want the drama and you know what this
Corey
26:41
this is our personalities on on display here like
Carter
26:44
the discord loves the drama the discord will be all over the drama the
Corey
26:48
the discord is you know
Carter
26:49
know who else would be all over the drama if he was putting his fucking earphones in yeah
Carter
26:54
zane velgey zane velgey you know
Zain
26:57
know what i suggest here's
Carter
26:57
here's what i've asked sorry
Zain
26:58
sorry oh sorry eyes were you're waving at me no
Carter
27:02
no i was my
Zain
27:04
wagging let me tell you something welcome back 25 minutes is a limit for that song i
Zain
27:09
just need you to know that hey
Zain
27:11
hey quick 25 i mean i feel like i've run a campaign i
Zain
27:16
i feel like i've lost a campaign but every rally that song plays it's pretty
Zain
27:22
can we uh can we play it like
Corey
27:24
right now is a good time
Corey
27:24
time no probably not yeah why not probably there's some well
Corey
27:28
well you know there's copyright considerations and all who's
Zain
27:31
who's got the copyright on it i
Corey
27:34
not us okay what do you mean not us
Zain
27:36
us now i'm more curious i don't care about what you talked about now i'm curious about copyright who
Corey
27:39
do you think we don't actually own the
Corey
27:42
well if for starters it seems to be a parody of the uh i
Corey
27:46
i don't know if you know this but it did it did lift some similarities from the ucp strong you think they're gonna
Zain
27:52
gonna come after us fuck that would be hilarious are you kidding me we could ezra like crowdsource money for that i
Zain
28:00
would drive a van around toronto if that's what it took
Zain
28:05
okay what other objections do you have because
Zain
28:08
because i'm not okay no so we're posting the song carter we're posting the song right best two out of three listen
Carter
28:13
listen i don't know if you know this uh zane but cory controls the board uh we don't have a we don't have the rights as as mere shareholders to make decisions uh he's the president and as you know he's the only one who knows how to work the soundboard so yeah
Corey
28:29
only does it control the board i control the board and the board yeah yeah it's
Carter
28:34
it's a double meaning
Corey
28:34
meaning to double board yeah that's good it's
Zain
28:37
it's good i hope the content that i missed was of that middling quality i just got to know
Carter
28:42
terrible it was uh absolutely horrific uh okay thanks for coming back i
Corey
28:46
i hope you were kind of hustling texting a few people to get out and vote get those last minute kind of nitchy in the bucket there but
Carter
28:53
but 80 because he's at 83 and i'm in the low 60s what do you mean like in
Zain
28:56
in what sense like
Carter
28:58
like he thinks well anything less than 83 he thinks is a failure whereas i think that anything less than the low 60s is a failure i
Corey
29:05
i think um i think uh you're
Corey
29:09
you're just saying that to be nice to zane you know if he gets 63 it means he's not worked at all like it's a bit embarrassing
Carter
29:15
embarrassing he's phoned it in but i mean did we have higher expectations no
Corey
29:21
my point hey zane do you got a segment or are we just gonna do Moving on
Zain
29:24
to what I assume
Zain
29:25
is our first segment, our first segment, robbing Peter to pay St. Paul's Stephen Carter. Justin Trudeau faces a critical by-election on Monday, and according to a new CBC report, voters in Toronto St. Paul's, where this by-election is happening, a liberal stronghold, former Carolyn Bennett's seat, are
Zain
29:45
are viewing this as a referendum on Justin Trudeau. Carter, just that framing alone, how
Zain
29:53
how bad is that for Justin Trudeau that this is a referendum on his leadership, on his candidacy? And frankly, you might just say, well, sounds bad, but isn't every race and every by-election a referendum on the leader? Is there something extra worrisome for Trudeau here, if we're to believe that, maybe not universally, but for a good chunk of voters, that's what they're thinking about when they're voting in toronto st paul's on monday
Carter
30:22
you're absolutely right in that every every election every by-election in the canadian system at this point is a referendum on the leader's popularity but there are certain uh points in the leader in a leader's career where it becomes more important and this i think is one of those points where it just simply is more important for Justin Trudeau to perform or to outperform the critics and this the referendum isn't just going to be an up and down straight win or loss the the question is how much do you win by so I think that this is a significant referendum on Justin Trudeau's leadership and it will be interesting to see if the people of Toronto St. Paul rally to him or if they leave him out in the cold.
Carter
31:11
This is my thinking, Corey.
Zain
31:13
First of all, actually, before I jump into that, give me your take on the referendum. And then I want to jump into, could the fact that this is now being verbalized as a referendum actually not be terrible for Trudeau, especially if you want to save him?
Corey
31:30
it's interesting. There's been no shortage of bad had signs for justin trudeau in the past year i actually go back and look at the polls he was hanging in there he was behind but he was hanging in there until about a year ago and then the wheels fell right off the fucking liberal wagon like in a big way right you had a
Corey
31:50
a number of things go awry for him starting with a divorce and a cabinet shuffle and the cabinet shuffle at the time was described as an economic reset and i'll just say we said at the time pretty risky because you get to play this card once right you don't get to reset the reset and we were told that that was supposed to start getting the liberal numbers back up and it didn't and then we saw Pierre Polyev run some pretty aggressive advertisements not aggressive in terms of tone but in volume you know the amount of ads that were out there and
Corey
32:22
and the the lead grew and
Corey
32:24
and then you started having people say things like okay but now he's out of market so we expect the lead to shrink back up but
Corey
32:33
but pierre polyev's lead grew and
Corey
32:35
and then we started hearing things like
Corey
32:38
that's okay we're gonna hit them again with the budget we're now coming out swinging we're gonna start doing things on housing look at our ads 60
Carter
32:44
60 days of messaging baby yeah
Corey
32:48
and the conservative lead grew and the budget came and the budget specifically said we're looking at a five-point bump i believe that's what they were looking for and pierre
Corey
32:57
pierre polyev's lead grew it is as large as it's ever been in the most recent abacus pull so
Corey
33:03
so i have to say as much as like the cabinet shuffle is a card you only get to play once i've named a bunch of other cards you only get to play once and there's not very many cards left in the deck for for justin trudeau in terms of i guess the hope that he can turn it around i'm not saying that like he's going to be deposed if this this thing goes awry but there's not a lot of reason to believe he's going to turn it around now and so We're getting to the place where a by-election is occurring in an absolute liberal mortal lock, and there's a chance he might lose it. I just don't know. For me, it's not so much, will his party turn on him if he loses? I think that those things happen incrementally, and they happen in ways that are sort of hard to describe sometimes. But it's, what is this story you are going to tell your supporters that's going to keep keep them from being utterly despondent and politically suicidal if you manage to lose Toronto St. Paul's. Because you're not going to be able to offer them that cabinet shuffle. You're not going to be able to offer them our messaging will turn it around. You're not going to be able to offer them policy, as we've described. We're at a point where people are just tuning out what he says because it's him who's saying it. And there's just not a lot of reason even for false hope at this point. So that's why I think it's such an important by-election for him. It's not It's not because by-elections mean everything. It's not because if you lose a by-election, you're destined to lose this leader. It's because this is a man at the end of his rope. And this by-election comes at a critical point. And if this goes bad for him, I
Corey
34:34
don't know what else he has. I don't know what else he has. There is no other play, in my opinion. Well,
Zain
34:39
Well, Carter, let me take it here. Let me take it here, actually. I want to get your thoughts on what else he has. I'll come back to Trudeau. It is an entertainment topic, but I find this one more entertaining.
Zain
34:49
The game of trying to keep a weak leader on.
Zain
34:55
You know this game, right? It's the game that the opposition who has a leader on the ropes wants them to stay until the next election because they don't want to run against the unknown. known. They don't want to run against an X factor. And there's probably some in the Polyev orbit right now that say, fuck it, bring on any liberal, anyone wearing red, we will crush them. But they know the product of Justin Trudeau. They know how unpopular he is.
Zain
35:20
How does keeping Justin Trudeau, which one could assume, and I will for the purposes of this question, is a goal for the Polyev conservatives, align with them in
Zain
35:34
And the The question there is like, do they hold their fire? Do they try to outright win this thing? How would you, if you keep the macro question of Trudeau with the micro question of St. Paul's, how are you as a strategist, Carter, balancing that act for Pierre Polyev and then to you, Corey?
Carter
35:53
Well, I think that you have to be careful not to try and control all the variables, right? You don't have control over what the other person does, what the other team does. does all you have control over is how you respond to it so my view would be put the pedal to the metal the only thing that tends to be rewarded in political life is momentum and
Carter
36:16
and if you've got the opportunity to have more momentum then you have to double down on it you have to push through it because the higher your momentum regardless of what it does to the other team the better off it it is for you so my my thinking and i would be shocked if pierre pauliev's team isn't thinking let's not only win saint paul let's win saint paul by the largest possible margin because we are going to show these guys that we are a political tour de force and i'm pretty confident that that's how they're thinking um because again momentum matters more than uh almost anything else in politics. Corey,
Zain
36:57
is it just a simple win and everything takes care of itself, or is there actually some political strategy and calculus that needs to be applied here?
Corey
37:06
Well, I agree with everything Stephen said, but if we want to accept the conceit of your question, which is maybe they don't want Trudeau
Corey
37:14
Trudeau to be deposed, I suppose. I want to kind of circle back to that. We can. It's an assumption
Zain
37:20
to just put out there, sure.
Corey
37:21
Yeah. Well, I don't even know. But there's an an argument to be made i think that at this point trudeau might actually be the liberals best hope which is a crazy thing for me to say but time is running short but i'll say this if
Corey
37:33
you really don't want it to hurt him as much what you want to do is kind of what's happened which is raise expectations as much as possible i disagree with what steven said in the first round here which is hey look even if he only holds on by five points he's got a problem i think that there's been too many conversations like the one the three of us are having about the real possibility the liberals could lose st paul and uh if that is the case if that is the case if the expectation has sort of been set to the the conservatives could take this the
Corey
38:04
liberals barely holding on to what should be a safe seat is probably enough like a win is a win it's like hey people said i couldn't win this but i did liberals are coming back you know like that actually might buy him a little bit of time if expectations start to swing too far the other way do
Zain
38:19
do you actually believe that that this could And let's go through some scenario planning. I love scenario planning, and I want to go through it, right? And maybe let's start with this question. Corey, I'll stick with you for a second. Carter, give me a sec. What does success look like for Trudeau?
Zain
38:34
Is a win a win a win for him here, Corey? I actually think a win is a win.
Corey
38:38
If it's by one point,
Carter
38:45
It's not like we're sitting there thinking that they're doing great.
Corey
38:47
And if he just wins, he can say, listen, look, Look, by-elections are always tough for governments. They are used to send messages. I've heard this message. I know we now need to do a retooling of, I
Corey
39:00
don't even know at this point. What is left to retool? There's one card.
Corey
39:06
left or one card? You've been that card.
Corey
39:09
You know there's one card left. Oh,
Zain
39:11
Oh, come on. Really?
Corey
39:13
That's it. That's the only card. card i
Zain
39:15
don't even know how big of a card that is
Corey
39:17
is to people that are not in
Zain
39:18
in our sort of political ops orbit
Corey
39:22
but the political ops orbit is what's going to kill him or not like that's where like the pressure so he gets rid of his chief of staff yeah
Carter
39:31
carolyn bennett won two to one over
Carter
39:33
over the conservative she
Carter
39:35
she won 20 you know 50 of the vote to 25 of the vote by
Corey
39:40
by elections are always tough on governments they sent a message i know i've got to do things
Carter
39:45
but at the end of the day this isn't a 10 point victory every
Carter
39:48
every single every single liberal mp is going to be scratching their head saying hey i wonder how that translates to my writing if
Corey
39:57
if you're kidding yourself if you don't think they're already kind of doing that i think
Carter
40:00
think that this is i think that this is okay you best here's the limit 10 points if we don't win by 10 then we've got some real issues and and there's not a lot of cards left to play, you know, sure, change your chief of staff if you want. But realistically, this isn't a chief of staff problem.
Carter
40:19
This is a election problem.
Zain
40:21
Carter, so here's the point I want you to maybe flesh out, which is, right now, you're Justin Trudeau, you're already planning for a series of scenarios, a loss defines itself, There is no way that even the best media relations person or comms person is going to spin an L to the conservatives. OK, so let's park that one for a second.
Zain
40:45
Talk to me about narrow win, less than a couple points, and then a win-win, which is 10 points. What are you doing differently, seeding the ground on Thursday for Monday to plan for those scenarios? Narrow and then, like, modest, if I can call it narrow and modest. modest same media relation strategy same public strategy same calm strategy or slightly different cory same question to you in a second here
Carter
41:07
no i think that you're going to if you have that big win you're going to say um you know this is this is the problem the
Carter
41:15
the media have uh blown this up and they've created and i'm sorry are you calling 10
Zain
41:19
10 plus a big win here and you're leading it plus is
Carter
41:23
is a big one
Zain
41:23
not going back to historical bennett numbers you're just you're accepting the premise of the lowered bar for you that has been the last number of weeks and if you win by double digits you're saying fuck you like i have i have mojo i
Carter
41:37
i have well not just me i mean the entire liberal party has mojo i mean the pundits the everybody had us losing this everybody had us losing no no one was betting on us winning and we won by 10 points this is a significant victory what this is saying is in a by-election where everything was stacked against us where this became a referendum on my leadership i was able to win and i won you know like we had a great candidate we had a great team uh and and we have this is the best part about the liberal party of canada we have great teams across canada we
Carter
42:09
we have great there's not a riding in canada where we can't be on some level competitive and we're going to be competitive across this country because the liberal party of canada uh is always underestimated it's underestimated in the polls Very easy to dislike Justin Trudeau at this point, but the reality is we haven't even met Pierre Polyev.
Zain
42:33
I'll go big win first. Carter's calling it big win. The double-digit victory. Is there a strategic comms difference between the double-digit and the narrow in your mind?
Corey
42:46
Well, I think your message track is largely the same. You're obviously going to tailor it on the specifics, but I would do something very similar to what Stephen said there. Lots of pollsters and pundits said we'd lose. Well, we're getting pretty used to pollsters and pundits saying that, aren't we, liberals, right? But we're
Corey
43:03
getting started. We're going to
Carter
43:04
to defy these bolsters
Corey
43:05
bolsters and pundits today. We're going to defy them tomorrow. We're going to defy them in 2025 when we get to the next election. Because you know what? Canadians, when they actually are given the choice between sensible, progressive
Corey
43:19
progressive liberal government and
Corey
43:21
and Pierre Polyev's, I
Corey
43:24
I don't know, Lunacy, whatever you want to brand them as, they pick the liberals. And that's what you say. And you just sort of move on.
Corey
43:30
We are glossing past the fact that that's still a bit of a loss there. But, you know, even if it's just a couple of points, I would use a pretty similar message track. Corey,
Zain
43:36
Corey, let's stick with you on a second. Justin Trudeau's statements, spin, strategic comms isn't going to sit in a vacuum alone. Of course it isn't. You're going to have Pierre Polyev try to define what a loss, narrow loss, look like for him. How are you thinking about this if you're Pierre Polyev? Let's say you lose by four points. You've never been that close. How does he mobilize his troops? How does he show that there's something here? How do you pick up the pieces and assemble something inspiring, hopeful, positive, constructive out of, let's say, a single digit loss? loss
Corey
44:11
yeah you you go up and you say oh my god you know uh what an incredible race what an incredible candidate what incredible volunteers you have all been in if i had told you at the start of this race that we were going to take this to within i know it's heartbreaking but if i told you at the start of this race we'd be within four points of taking this seat you wouldn't have believed me but you know what we are here because you did believe in yourselves And you hit those doors and you went and you had the conversations with your neighbors and you fought the good fight. And we're just getting started because we're going to take this energy through to the next by-election and the next general. And we're going to see, you
Carter
44:51
I can't even remember the name of the conservative candidate. I'm blanking on it. In
Corey
44:54
In the House of Commons with me as part of a strong conservative majority that's going to bring common sense back to Canada and, you know, axe the tax, blah, blah, blah, all of your lines at the end. Axe
Zain
45:06
Axe the tax, all the lines. Carter, how
Zain
45:08
how do you spin in a single digit loss if you're a period poly F?
Carter
45:12
Oh, my God. I mean, that's a 20-point shift in one of the Liberals' best writings. And we just did a 20-point shift. Let's do a 20-point shift on every writing in Canada. and
Carter
45:24
and we have one of the largest majorities in canadian history one
Carter
45:28
one of the largest majorities in canadian history a 20 point shift from the liberals to the conservatives is a massive victory for the conservative party of canada oh
Zain
45:37
oh i like the
Zain
45:38
angle and it i like extrapolating and applying it i
Zain
45:41
i don't mind it's
Zain
45:42
it's shifted just imagine him sitting there with a
Carter
45:45
it's shifted in we know
Carter
45:49
that we're stronger in rural we know we're stronger in the suburbs we did not think on
Carter
45:54
any level that we were this strong in toronto saint paul in
Carter
45:59
in the heart of liberal land would
Zain
46:01
would you take a shit on toronto the shittiest place in the world no
Carter
46:05
mean the people of toronto have just come out and supported us in a way that we had you know thank you to the people of toronto for seeing that we are a viable choice uh not just today but in the general election that's for thank you
Corey
46:16
you for seeing we're viable thank
Carter
46:17
thank you for seeing that we are the that we represent we have the capacity to
Carter
46:23
to represent you uh in the way that you want to be represented thank you for seeing
Corey
46:26
seeing that we are viable and have capacity we
Corey
46:30
the leader like can you a lot of what you're saying i actually think is like would be said by people around pure polyam but that's not yeah
Zain
46:36
yeah can you bottle some of that up and put it on the go calgary.ca website i feel like that's it's not our website zane so
Corey
46:42
so here's the thing you need did you guys do this we
Corey
46:44
we did not do oh we
Carter
46:45
we don't have that kind of time that
Corey
46:47
that would be the other to be clear to be clear to posting it cory
Zain
46:50
cory has that of time to time cory has that kind of
Carter
46:52
of time even cory doesn't have this kind of time there this is a significant amount of work and you know you
Carter
46:59
know you're not the only lazy podcasters you
Zain
47:03
who else is there yeah cory you
Zain
47:06
us that's good hey carter um drug me ting you guys probably never talked about him on this pod yet um no
Corey
47:14
is first time he's been mentioned in
Zain
47:14
in some ways Toronto St. Paul's is a progressive riding. It has gone liberal, sure, but it is a progressive riding. Justin Trudeau is weaker amongst the, you know, than where he was. You should think that this is Jagmeet Singh's fertile territory. Let's say he doesn't make the gains.
Zain
47:35
huge leap I'm taking here. Let's say he doesn't make the gains he should, Carter.
Zain
47:42
Come on. Does Jagmeet Singh even need to say anything?
Zain
47:46
I don't mean that dismissively, but is this best strategic option after not making gains in a place that is progressive, like Toronto St. Paul's, to
Zain
47:56
to just not really justify anything, not spin, just get out of the way? Or am I just being a bit too flip for my own good, Carter?
Carter
48:05
I think you have to spin it. I think you have to step up and say, you know what, there's no question that sometimes what the liberals have done to us has hurt us. We're going to be taking much stronger lines over the next year and a half. And I'll tell you something, the Liberals are no longer going to be able to take us for granted. We're going to stand up in the House of Commons. We're going to be demanding far more for the citizens of Canada, because if this coalition is going to continue, it's going to continue on our terms. Because the New Democratic Party isn't just the party of Alberta, it's also the party of Canada. and uh that
Carter
48:43
that is you know we're going to make sure that we're heard across this country
Zain
48:47
cory what are you doing if your drug mate's saying on the heels of this by-election doesn't seem like he's his party is is is in the running there could always be a surprise but doesn't seem like they're going to take it on monday night between the liberals and the conservatives
Corey
49:00
what what do you think they're
Corey
49:01
they're not taking you
Corey
49:04
this by-election has been illuminating it It has shown us that the Liberals are – if in a place like Toronto, St. Paul's, this is how the Liberals are performing. We know the Liberals are looking for – or Liberal voters are looking for options.
Corey
49:18
And so we're going to be spending our time showing that we are the option. And yeah, in Toronto, St. Paul's, people decided they wanted to send a message. And so they pooled their votes with the Conservatives. But we know that's not where their hearts are. We know that ultimately Canadians are progressive. Canadians want environmental action. They don't want the inaction of a Polyev government. Canadians want social justice. They don't want the injustice of a Polyev government. Canadians want economic fairness. They don't want the cronyism of a Polyev government. So we're going to be bringing that message everywhere over the next bit. We are the alternative to the Pierre Polyev conservatives. If you want to hold a conservative government to account, you send new Democrats to the House of Commons.
Zain
50:02
let's end this segment. I liked
Carter
50:04
liked mine better. I
Zain
50:05
I like thinking you guys gave some good lines. I think some of them might even be incorporated on Monday night, depending on what ends up happening. But Carter, talk to me about something Corey's already given me a hint of from his perspective, the stakes for
Zain
50:19
I get where Corey's at. One more card
Corey
50:22
This is a big one.
Corey
50:24
You don't have to play it. You don't have to play it, right? You can make the choice.
Zain
50:29
I'll let you close that
Zain
50:29
that out, Corey. I want to get Carter's hot take on this. What are the stakes for Trudeau? like honestly in your mind what
Carter
50:36
what what should be the stakes the stakes should be that i think this is a referendum on his leadership i think that that should be the stakes i think unfortunately um that's not going to be the stakes i think that justin trudeau regardless of what happens because he's going to say it's too late but
Zain
50:52
the end of the day don't we just say caucus has control like do you feel like this is because caucus will never confront him
Carter
50:58
i don't i mean who in caucus is going to stand up and take this beating
Carter
51:02
beating right like like let's be clear if you're in caucus and you decide to stand up and do this you are taking a beating when
Carter
51:09
when you do it who
Carter
51:10
who who's the who's the brave soul who stands up and says you know what i i need this pain in my life uh
Carter
51:16
uh i just to
Zain
51:17
to be clear what do you mean you like standing up and saying which yeah standing up to trudeau or standing up and then running and saying i'll take his job
Carter
51:22
job yeah what do
Zain
51:23
do you yeah just
Carter
51:24
just saying to trudeau i think it's time to go sir why
Zain
51:28
that a beating? Explain that to me. Walk me through that. I
Carter
51:30
I think that because the person who turns on the leader is the person who gets the worst. It tends to be the person. At this point, is it the person who turns
Zain
51:36
turns on the leader or the person who's reading the room?
Carter
51:40
I don't know. I think it's turning on the leader. I think that if I was advising someone, I'd say not today.
Zain
51:47
Interesting. Corey, I'll let you finish off
Zain
51:50
off on what you think the stakes are and what the cards are. Should he have a narrow victory or outright lose on Monday?
Corey
52:00
Well, maybe this is where I'll get into what I wanted to say about. I'm not entirely convinced it would
Corey
52:06
would be in the party's interest to move on from. Who's next, I guess, is the question. This is not looking like a super compelling. You're
Carter
52:16
This is the one we've been waiting for.
Corey
52:19
Who wants that job knowing they're likely to lose by 20 points to Pierre-Paul Yev? next year i
Corey
52:26
honestly don't know it's
Carter
52:26
it's not going to be a 20 point loss because that's how politicians work ah
Corey
52:31
i know i know that's true but i also keep
Corey
52:33
keep hearing more people put their hands down like even silently like they're just not showing interest in the job the way they were even six months ago
Carter
52:42
because six months is gone you
Carter
52:43
you know six months
Corey
52:44
months is gone this is this is my point though steven we're now getting to the place where you're
Corey
52:50
you're going to take this job yeah in theory you could just keep the house of commons running for another two years i think that looks pretty weak but it's certainly possible but
Corey
52:59
but what do you what are you going to do but
Zain
53:01
this is interesting like has trudeau almost bought himself the 2025 candidacy by just wearing out the clock dragging the puck yeah just
Carter
53:11
just running running it down just being like ah it's funny but but what's the value of that candidacy yeah
Corey
53:17
yeah right like to what end i guess is a great
Carter
53:20
when you rag the puck Fuck, you're supposed to be ahead.
Zain
53:23
That's exactly right. That's one fact, Stephen Carter. I like that. We're going to leave that segment there, move it on to our over, under, and our lightning round. Stephen Carter, let's start with this. Over, under, let's choose a number.
Zain
53:36
I really like 27.
Corey
53:42
I like 83. 83 is pretty good.
Zain
53:45
Carter, over, under 22 minutes. minutes the length of the speech from the new leader of the alberta ndb whoever that uh he or she may be oh
Corey
53:56
oh wait he over over
Carter
53:57
on i will take over times two you're
Carter
54:00
you're gonna take 44 44
Zain
54:04
guaranteed cory over under on 22 i liked 22 i thought 22 was the reason i'm
Corey
54:09
i'm gonna go over on 20 are you gonna do are you gonna are you gonna do with the carter i'm not doing 44 that's great There will be a script that he will deviate sharply from. He will deviate from the script. Whoever he or she is.
Carter
54:21
will deviate from the script. He will immediately make it about himself, and he will deliver.
Corey
54:27
He won the leadership in this scenario, so I think that's...
Carter
54:31
I'm telling you, he's
Carter
54:33
he's going to make it a long speech. Over,
Corey
54:34
Over, under, on, to. Mentions of Zane Velji in the speech. Under.
Carter
54:41
No way. Oh, yeah. I'm taking the under. if it's not if it's
Zain
54:44
it's not an entry under if it's anyone else over i feel like i feel like they they may they may call out and say listen what inspired me was zane felji for leader someone who had a come from behind spirit and energy kathleen i'm
Carter
54:58
i'm writing these down because sunday night is coming quick oh
Zain
55:01
oh yeah okay okay what what exactly are you writing well we're recording on sunday
Carter
55:04
sunday night when we record although i think we should record on monday because you want to wait till the
Zain
55:09
the by-election okay i like i actually like that that um wait
Zain
55:12
wait so hold on you're saying it's over 44 for no reason whatsoever just because that's who you are you doubled it you said over and
Zain
55:20
and cory you're saying over now it's not fair because because because you feel like actually you know you're saying over 22 yeah
Carter
55:27
got over 22 you're
Corey
55:28
you're probably literally writing the speech zane so i'm not really sure that this is fair in any sense but yeah
Carter
55:34
you think that this matters he could write a six minute speech and i'm still still going to win uh
Zain
55:41
carter all right okay okay here we go next question we're good this is good that was a good first question felt
Zain
55:48
discuss that topic on this show uh yeah carter tell me this who
Zain
55:54
who wins toronto st paul's on monday night and by how much let's get another prediction on the record liberals
Carter
56:02
liberals by three a
Zain
56:03
a single A single-digit win, Carter?
Carter
56:07
I said what I said.
Carter
56:09
Really? A single-digit win? Steven Carter?
Carter
56:12
I'm writing these down, by the way.
Zain
56:14
You're writing all these predictions down. Do you want a third one to be a prediction, too? Because we can make it. Well,
Carter
56:18
Well, no. You got to ask Corey. What's Corey's thought? Yeah,
Zain
56:20
Yeah, I'll get Corey's. But if you're in a prediction mood, let's just get all three predictions on the record. Corey, what
Zain
56:29
what do you got? Monday night, Toronto St. Paul's.
Zain
56:32
carter's going l plus three which to me seems a little low well
Corey
56:39
yeah it does to me too like my my head says it's going to be more like 11 or 12 that's where i put it but
Corey
56:45
but i would not be surprised if we were surprised if it ended up being a conservative victory by elections have funny momentum and they're really hard to read from a distance it's
Zain
56:55
it's a good point in the in the vote so So how many are you picking? You know, I picked 11 or
Corey
56:59
but I'm saying I wouldn't be shocked if it was something wild. Carter,
Zain
57:02
Carter, put me in for L plus nine on
Carter
57:06
Okay, but hang on. Yeah. You didn't. How long on the speech?
Corey
57:10
Yeah. How long on the speech, Zane? How long on the speech? I
Corey
57:13
I have no idea how long
Corey
57:15
the leader, whoever. Over on 22. We can exclude him. It's like, it would be like him betting on his own horse that he owns. I'm just saying.
Zain
57:23
saying. Whoever he or she is. I mean, that's just inappropriate. appropriate he can
Carter
57:25
can bet on his own horse when his own horse has his own mind is bound to bolt
Carter
57:31
this is the over or
Carter
57:33
the under on 22
Zain
57:34
22 i don't even know if this is racist or not i don't know do
Carter
57:36
do you take the over or the under on 22 zane do
Zain
57:40
do i take the over the under on 22 definitely under
Zain
57:46
you you don't believe that you're saying you don't even know i don't know who the leader is gonna be
Zain
57:50
feel like it's a safe bet it's like bob barker rules carter
Zain
57:54
Final question. It's fine. I like it. Final question, Carter. Give me a number. Give me a number. The federal NDP vote percentage, Toronto St. Paul's Monday night.
Zain
58:04
Give it to me. Federal
Zain
58:06
So, fed NDP vote percentage. So, check me out. Last one we talked about in that segment. Give me what percentage of the vote him and his party are going to have on
Zain
58:14
on Monday night in Toronto St. Paul's.
Carter
58:19
14%. They don't get back their money. Ooh, 14%.
Zain
58:25
Corey you got a number yeah
Zain
58:27
yes seven percent really oh he's having you Carter do you want another shot at this you're just no
Carter
58:34
no 14 was good 14 is fine what
Zain
58:36
do you take you're licking your finger and you're just going out there I that's interesting Corey describe to me seven yeah
Carter
58:43
it's a number it's a single number never heard of it describe
Corey
58:46
more about seven to me they're
Corey
58:49
they're not in the race they're not like this is all for the first time in a long time a competitive race and so why would we think when the ndp only got 16 in a deeply uncompetitive environment that they would do
Corey
59:01
do better in a competitive environment carter i'm
Carter
59:04
i'm not thinking that they're doing better i in fact said that they would do worse by
Zain
59:08
by two points so
Carter
59:09
so how many are you taking zane what's your number i'm
Zain
59:12
i'm uh i'm just getting out of here i need to focus my time and energy on something important the deadline write
Zain
59:18
speech for him the deadline to apply for flair airline ceo is this saturday and i'm gonna leave it there that's a wrap on episode 1809 of the strategist my name is zane velge with me as always cory hogan stephen carter and we will see you on
Zain
59:30
on monday maybe she's
Corey
59:36
she's gonna run federally that
Carter
59:38
that could be maybe she's running federally