Transcript
Zain
0:01
This is The Strategist, episode 1290. My name is Zain Velji. With me, as always, Corey Hogan, Stephen
Zain
0:07
Stephen Carter. Guys, what's going on?
Carter
0:10
Listen, I just want to thank you guys for being so patient with me. I know I was a little bit late today, but we got a
Carter
0:17
a bidet. It was pretty exciting. There's this heated seat, and I sat down. I was all pretty excited. Go ahead, Corey.
Corey
0:25
It's done. Don't worry.
Carter
0:27
I'm going to open a second one. it's got a remote control anyways I pressed the start button
Carter
0:34
didn't realize you had to press the stop button so I was there for a good 15-20 minutes it was I feel refreshed, I feel quite refreshed that was
Zain
0:43
was a long walk for some disturbing imagery Carter, thank you
Carter
0:48
you're welcome Corey you
Zain
0:49
you want to come
Carter
0:50
come over and use it sometime, don't
Corey
0:54
so I also got a bidet today uh zane it was kind of a weird does this continue the cory
Zain
1:00
cory and steven meeting meeting behind zane's back i feel like this is a it started with
Carter
1:05
with brunch chat about it we had a chat about it starts with brunch
Zain
1:07
brunch you guys record an episode of
Zain
1:09
of the podcast without me what do i know no one even tells
Zain
1:12
me anything anymore okay we
Carter
1:14
we don't even ask on tuesdays and wednesdays matching don't even ask matching
Corey
1:17
matching bidets what is this shit they're not they're not matching mine uh yours is just on on top of him mine you start
Corey
1:24
i keep mine ice cold yeah and his i prefer i prefer a bracing experience frankly well
Carter
1:30
well listen the couple first couple seconds are a little bit chilly oh
Carter
1:33
it warms right up i uh they
Corey
1:35
they can be colder they
Zain
1:35
they can be colder yeah yeah i feel left out um okay cory uh anything else you know what a
Carter
1:41
a bidet is zane do you want us to explain it to you no
Zain
1:44
no you know i stayed at one of those um coast
Zain
1:47
coast hotels which have been bought over by a a japanese conglomerate nice recently i don't know if you guys have seen this but
Zain
1:54
but there's a japanese company that's now partnered with the the coast chain of hotels and every room has a bidet that's just a thing now it's just a it's the way it comes comes comes built in so there you go guys
Corey
2:04
guys i'm gonna be honest with you i didn't actually get a bidet today i just wanted to fit it okay yeah i feel less
Carter
2:12
less i i i'm gonna be honest with you too i did get a bidet but i didn't sit on it for 20 minutes okay
Zain
2:18
okay cool excellent uh okay
Zain
2:20
okay you know what i was doing hey listen actually i want to jump into something this is not even a topic but i find this interesting i was
Carter
2:25
was like a half hour
Zain
2:26
hour this is gonna be a good half hour well it's not thanks to me it's thanks to you guys that these topics take a long time okay these random musings i was watching joe biden give the state of the union address um yeah he
Zain
2:40
and you know what i find interesting is that he tripped over a lot of words he was joe biden decent you know sort of script writing for sure uh i'm sure like as folks know that these things take months to put together here's what struck me and i know we've had a version of this conversation before but
Zain
2:56
but man is just the oratory better in the united states or am i fooling myself with some like romanticism carter like this was joe biden a guy who's 80 tripping over his words and i was like this is better than mostly the product i I see here. Am I wrong or am I romanticizing what I see in the U.S. as being a higher order and skill set of politics? And I'm talking now specifically from the politicians, or is there some merit to what I'm saying here, Carter?
Carter
3:23
Well, I mean, given the recent passing of Brian Mulroney, I mean, he was probably our last great orator at the federal level. Justin Trudeau, We've talked about how performative he is when he speaks. There are moments when he comes across as real and authentic, and I think that just makes the other moments just even more jarring. We haven't seen a great orator for a number of years. I mean, I think that Danielle Smith gets close. She's a great communicator at the very least.
Zain
3:52
least. I thought Kenny got close in some ways. Kenny
Carter
3:54
Kenny was okay. Well, maybe the questioner is what makes— He
Zain
3:57
He wasn't great. What makes a good orator versus a good communicator? Is there a difference, or are we leaning into semantics?
Carter
4:03
semantics? Oh, yeah. I think that we're great communicators, other than Corey, and none of us are great orators. It's a different medium.
Carter
4:13
We talk about all the different ways of writing, right? There's different types of writing. There's poetry. There's prose. There's all kinds of different things.
Carter
4:21
Chat GPT. Novels. All kinds of different writing. Copywriting. The same is true for speaking. speaking right what we do on our podcast is very different than a scripted podcast or you know is very different than a television show or you know it's different than anything that's
Zain
4:39
that's better it's mainly that it's better yeah
Carter
4:42
we're great they're good and the same can be said of orators and in Canada we do not have a history of producing great orators and outside of really Brian Mulrooney and I don't think I'm misremembering him I think I remember him as as a a great orator you
Zain
4:59
remember the guy with the deep voice so he clearly had like voice quality was part of it but cory am i am i just like being like ah america they
Zain
5:10
they just do it better down there or do i have do i have do i have a case that i'm making just observing joe biden today well
Corey
5:18
well i do think it's a little bit more part of their civic religion this idea that you'll make a great speech and and And that's going to change the way people think about you. And so I do think it's a skill that politicians there curate a little bit more. And we've talked about this before. The State of the Union is given by the president. Sure. Our equivalent is the throne speech. It's given by the lieutenant governor, right? And she does a great job.
Corey
5:45
We don't have the same traditions or culture here. And as a result, politicians, it would be a misallocation of time and effort for them to develop the skill that is necessary for that kind of speech. Because let's be clear, a State of the Union, not
Corey
6:01
not even the same as giving a campaign speech. Although
Zain
6:04
Although today's – although the materiality of today's speech, Biden was giving a campaign speech in some ways. It was really interesting. No, but a different audience,
Carter
6:10
audience, different structure, different – I
Zain
6:14
we don't put stock in it, and politicians don't hone it, Corey, because it's not necessarily, you
Zain
6:23
you know, graded that way, right?
Zain
6:26
Should we be? I guess is my natural, like, should we be like, yeah, you know what, like, maybe this is a skill you want to develop.
Corey
6:34
nope because again we don't we don't do that here that's not we don't have the big august speech where you have applause lines part way through and the entire nation is watching that's just not a thing we do it is something they do there it's a skill that he needed to develop you know so much of the culture of that place you know even going to their their fiction like mr smith goes to washington it's the there are beats to americana to american democracy that they are all mimicking, going all the way back to George Washington. And let's be clear, Joe Biden has been doing this for 54 years. He is very old, and he's been doing this a long time. So the other thing is experience does matter. And he is a skilled politician. Carter,
Zain
7:17
Carter, is Corey wrong? Should we be actually nurturing the skill set more? We remember oratory. We emotionally connect with it. We don't use it the same way the Americans do. If we acknowledge there's a delta, And we and we hopefully would acknowledge that it's not because there's something in our water that doesn't allow us to do what the Americans do. Should we be nurturing it more in our politics?
Carter
7:40
I'd love to. I
Carter
7:41
I would love to. And I'd love to see if it actually works. Corey's premise is that it doesn't work. So we don't value it. And my premise is we don't do it very well. So we don't even know if it works. I think that those of us, you know, we're so inundated with American politics saying that great orators from the United States, they resonate up here. You know, suddenly we're all big fans of Beto O'Rourke or we're big fans of, you know, JFK or RFK. No,
Carter
8:11
No, we're not fans of RFK. Sorry,
Carter
8:13
Sorry, I got that messed
Carter
8:16
But, you know, this is all, the
Carter
8:18
better the orator, the better the listening experience. And, you know, you don't have to be, I
Carter
8:26
mean, I think that when you look back in history, some of the greatest leaders were some of the greatest orators. Now, also some of the worst leaders were some of the greatest orators. so i guess it it depends on how we how we view it but it was if i could find a candidate with that particular skill i'd be i'd be pretty happy cory
Zain
8:45
cory is carter wrong that's
Zain
8:48
that's what i'm going to do back and forth why did you do
Carter
8:50
his so short i i just i was too long like i just wanted to hit with yes cory's wrong and but then you went a whole you know i
Zain
8:56
i feel like i should go back and forth and we could just run out the clock here okay this is good it's just it's just like a very long game of pong that we're playing yeah
Corey
9:07
well look i i think it's a valuable skill but our system just doesn't value it in the same way and we just don't we don't have big speeches like that you know and even this like we're talking about oh joe biden giving a a really great state of the union the reality is i don't think it's going to change particularly much in the united States either. So I suspect it's even overvalued there. So much of what America does is rooted in the traditions of America that they should probably just give up. And this might even be one of them, right?
Carter
9:40
Oh, I thought you meant give up as a society. Yeah, no, that's what I
Zain
9:43
I heard too. It's like, well,
Zain
9:45
America, the cold bidet of country. Let's move it on to our first segment. Our first segment, Stephen Carter, delay tactic. Here we go. So,
Zain
9:56
this is a really fascinating story. So, Canada has been long pressured to resume its funding to the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees, the UNRWA. There was rumors that we would be doing it. The minister responsible, Ahmed Hussein, who happens to not just be the minister responsible, but also of the broader Muslim community, was facing a lot of pressure from community members, from stakeholders writ large, to resume this funding for Canada's lack of urgency on this file. And it seemed like, Carter, Cannon was on the path. In fact, it was reported by CBC News Tuesday, where court today on Thursday, that there was going to be an announcement on Wednesday. And lo and behold, Ahmed Hussain was ready to have an announcement with Bob Ray.
Zain
10:46
And then, Carter, it
Zain
10:47
it gets canceled. And today, Justin Trudeau comes out and says, we're not making any announcements today. And sources still confirm to CBC and other outlets that this is going to happen. It's still on the tracks. It's just going to be delayed a bit.
Zain
11:00
here's two things I want to talk about. I want to split this story into two, Carter. I want to split the first part of the story being like, what the hell could be going on here? Almost into raw speculation. And then I want to get into the strategy of when you delay, I shouldn't say the inevitable, but when you delay an announcement, when you delay something that still ultimately happens, what changes as it relates to strategy, expectations, and communications? What do you need to have into account? If the PM is to go out tomorrow and do this, What changed from having Hussein do this on Wednesday? That's the second part of the conversation I want to discuss. But Carter, do you want to get into our reckless speculation? What the heck could be going on here?
Carter
11:38
Any number of things. I mean, this is international politics. I mean, there may be a word of, you know, a pending attack, a pending ceasefire, a pending—I mean, any number of things in a live war zone could be happening. and the
Carter
11:54
the uh making of an announcement uh you know it could be governed by any number of things um you know let's be honest it's it is an important announcement and it is an important thing uh for people in gaza but
Carter
12:08
but there's an awful lot going on with this war and not the least of which is a
Carter
12:14
a desire to see it end uh
Carter
12:15
uh so you know who knows what's going on and i think that reckless speckly speculation it would be tons of fun to do but realistically we're in the deep end here zane and we don't know what's going on with the international politics um and it could just be as simple as waiting for the state of the union seeing what biden said um but at the at the end of the day uh foreign politics will
Carter
12:43
will trump uh domestic issues quite frequently um when there's an act of war. If it wasn't an act of war, I think that we would see local politics win the day. But this is, you know, I mean, there's a lot at stake, Zane, at the risk of sounding like I'm minimizing, but there's a tremendous amount at stake in Gaza and Israel.
Zain
13:05
Corey, he didn't take the bait. He didn't take the reckless speculation lane, the big pool, the big sandbox they gave him. He didn't, he didn't, I don't know
Zain
13:14
I don't know why.
Zain
13:14
That's called discipline. Lack of discipline Discipline is what you're known for, Carter. Corey, can you show that lack of discipline we expect from Stephen Carter?
Corey
13:24
why not? There are a lot of things that could potentially be at play here, as Stephen said. Maybe it's a matter of sequencing, as Stephen said. Maybe it's a situation where the government has been given additional accusations about the organization. You'll keep in mind, of course, that we cut funding in the first place because Israel alleged and then the UN did an investigation and found 10, I believe, with two others who were deceased and so kind of, but like that were involved in the attack on Israel on October 7th. And so that was a damning accusation. That was quite the thing that the UN had to do.
Corey
14:05
And obviously, tied up in the notion of providing aid to people who desperately need aid made it messy as hell for
Corey
14:12
for all parties involved here. But it's possible, for example, that the state of Israel heard that, listen, I'm not saying this happened. You asked for reckless speculation. This isn't even speculation. This is just a thing that could happen. You could say, hey, we've got additional evidence that the problem is not resolved in this organization. And the government of Canada maybe needs a day or two to look at that evidence and sort of assess that. maybe it's a situation where they're very close to a ceasefire and they just need a tiny bit of sweetener so nations across the globe are saying okay well what can we say that we could really ramp up if we do this like not only can this aid resume but we could increase the aid if there were a situation where all of a sudden we were we're in a ceasefire but that's going to require that hostages get released maybe it's a situation like that it's it's impossible to know for sure But Stephen's right. This is international politics. This is diplomacy. And it is a delicate dance. And frankly, maybe it was always a requirement for one of the many reasons we've discussed that Canada go a bit later and maybe somebody fucked up and scheduled it five days before it could happen for any of the things we've talked about or 100 other reasons that would never even cross our minds. So
Zain
15:26
So let's park the speculation aside. I don't know how dare we got into the speculation on international politics on a topic so serious, Carter. I don't know why you let us down there. Fucking Carter.
Zain
15:36
would you do that? Hey, Corey, I'm gonna stick with you.
Zain
15:40
regardless of like the people who want this, the groups, the individuals, the frankly, the NDP in some ways who want this from the liberals, they
Zain
15:51
they may not necessarily they might accept and want to hear what the rationale. I don't know if they'll care, right? Have expectations been raised? Maybe the better way to ask you is what's changed? Or what changes if you were helping advise a politician on a delay? Like, can you make the same announcement and you're fine? Do you have to acknowledge the delay? Do you have to acknowledge the speculation? How are you thinking about it both strategically and tactically? Give me your advice here.
Corey
16:19
don't know that it materially changes the event. I mean, I can think of a couple of ways, and i'm going to circle back to it but i want to say that the biggest risk now is if there is any reason for another delay now they're in serious trouble it's kind of a general rule in the in the business world you should try to follow too like you can reschedule a meeting once don't reschedule it twice right because that's when people start to say what in the hell is going on here why can you not figure all of these things out and so um that would be the big concern
Corey
16:48
concern that the government should have at this moment if there's any reason the minister can't make the announcement if all of a sudden one of them gets the flu and they got to push it off two days now you've got a situation where this announcement was supposed to happen it was pulled back it was supposed to happen it's pulled back what's going on i think one is somewhat forgivable certainly you are going to have to deal with questions on the day of what happened why was it delayed unfortunately you are now going to have process story pulled into your story regardless of what it was because you had this delay but But generally speaking, one delay is manageable. You can work those things through staff. You can talk to reporters if you had legitimate reasons for it on background and all of that. It will still end up a line in most of the stories, I would imagine. But you don't need to sweat it too much. But
Corey
17:35
But now you've got no slack. Now another delay is a huge problem. And so I think that that is probably more the risk at this point. Carter,
Zain
17:45
how would you think about this? Would you would you would you like me overthink it in terms of what this might mean for expectations or strategy? Or are you are you saying, listen, we could do the same announcement. We're fine.
Carter
17:58
I think that in general, the expectation is that Canada is going to resume funding, you know, and I say that without any specific knowledge of it, you know, But it strikes me as impossible for
Carter
18:10
for us to stay out of funding the Gaza Strip in some massive way at the conclusion of this war. During the war is a bit of a question. And this week, next week, the week after is a bit of a question because of all of the different variables that may be in play.
Carter
18:32
But nonetheless, we're going to end up back there. And I think that that's the saving grace for the government is that they're going to be in a position where it's going to ultimately work out and that will save them from the potential embarrassment of first you say you do and then you don't and then you say you will and then you won't. You're
Carter
18:53
You're undecided now, but what are you going to do? What are you going to do? What do you do? What do you do? I
Corey
18:58
I feel like that
Carter
19:00
that might have been the wrong way to end that segment. no
Zain
19:03
no why do you think the segment's over now i've got a whole new list of questions starting with
Zain
19:08
what the fuck was that and then expanding on to i
Carter
19:10
i was from uh hey cory forever plaid fuck
Zain
19:18
plaid you didn't see forever plaid cory have
Corey
19:20
have you seen forever plaid i haven't no no i haven't carter was
Corey
19:25
a uh was this don't don't encourage him zing don't encourage you carter carter what was this show it's
Carter
19:31
it's a musical four guys back
Carter
19:33
back in the day they all wind up in heaven they all died in a car accident is this like an episodic
Zain
19:39
episodic they never run for seasons who was this no it
Carter
19:41
it was like it was a live theater show you philistine
Zain
19:46
jesus christ cory yeah you know what you were right i'm sorry carter um carter steven carter's theater background hey hey cory carter brings up a really interesting point Right.
Zain
19:57
Really interesting point, actually, Carter. Could Trudeau and, I guess, to a greater extent, Biden, bank
Zain
20:04
bank on the fact that their Gaza contributions will be on the back end?
Zain
20:08
And do you think that could translate? And I'm asking you to guess three moves ahead, but let's just do it. And could that translate for Biden, that uncommitted vote that we saw in Michigan and to a lesser degree in Minnesota on Super Tuesday, and the loud sort of Arab of American voices or Muslim voices that are protesting against him, may never go to Trump, but may stay at home. And for Trudeau as well, which a large swath of voters that may have leaned to Trudeau are now upset, vocally. Do
Zain
20:39
Do you feel like they could build back political capital on the back end of a war?
Carter
20:46
Well, you're going to go first.
Zain
20:48
first. I think, Carter, Carter, you effectively said they can, but I'm kind of curious to get Corey's opinion and analysis on this.
Corey
20:56
Sure. And it's kind of a cynical classic play of government, right? You don't do the thing that people need for three years, and then in the last year, you do a lot of it. You
Corey
21:06
think it fits into that same mold, doesn't
Zain
21:07
doesn't it? Well, it kind
Corey
21:08
kind of does, doesn't it? Because the psychology of people is they remember that there's a big recency bias, and you also get to put a bigger number on the table because you haven't been doing it earlier. So, you know, think about healthcare, for example, you can, you can cut it 1% a year for three years, and then you can give it like an 8% increase. And that's, you know, that's not even really making good to the inflation that it otherwise would have been. But people are like, wow, 8% fucking huge way to go, guys. That's great. I'm so excited about that 8% increase. And so there is a school of thought that says that loading is even more important than almost what you're loading it with. And you just want to kind of front load the pain and you back load the joy and then it all sort of works out. And yeah, very cynical to talk about when there's so many lives on the line, you know, and there's, you know, humanitarian crisis unfolding. But as we said, there's a lot of diplomacy and politics involved here. And it is quite possible that a country like Canada, a country like the United States would say, okay, well, messy now. Let's jump in later. And we'll just go really hard. And we'll do what we can. And maybe people will remember us for that. Now, it doesn't appear that's what the Americans are doing right now. They're building docks and they're airdropping into Gaza. They're trying to find another way to deliver aid. But yeah, I mean, I hate to say it, but that is a strategy that often works. Carter,
Zain
22:36
Carter, could you strategize and telegraph that right now? Like, what would the political risks of outside of like raw cynicism, right? Like to Corey's point, but hold on, or
Zain
22:49
would you disagree with me? I
Carter
22:51
your idea that it's cynicism. I think that it's also part of the reality of this particular situation. This is a shooting war, right? There are, I mean, yes, there are absolutely civilians being killed, but this
Carter
23:06
this is someone else's war.
Carter
23:08
You know, getting involved in it and risking your own political capital has a marked difference. Now, keep in mind, Biden's in a much different race. Biden's a whole year ahead of where Trudeau is in terms of his election elements. This isn't cynicism. This is political reality. If Trudeau wants to win back these groups, he's literally got 18 months to do so. Joe Biden has eight, right? Like this is it is a fundamental difference in how we're, you know, how we're approaching this election structure and how this and this election strategy. And you can't ignore it because the other guy will have a totally different point of view towards the conflict. So it's
Carter
23:55
it's not cynicism, Zane. And I kind of just I wanted to just kind of push back on that and say, it's not about cynicism. It's about this idea that the other guy's worse. So we have to make sure that we can do everything that we can do to stop that from happening. Help
Zain
24:10
Help me with this then, Carter. How would you start
Zain
24:13
start preparing and how would you start trying to win those folks back during a war? This is the part I think is cynical, right? You don't. So you don't do it right now.
Zain
24:25
Don't you run the risk then that if you don't start saying, hey, listen, Canada is going to get involved. This isn't the stage for us right now. Don't you run the risk that they're going to leave and never come back versus keeping them on the hook to say, but
Zain
24:39
but we know our role. We know our role, and we know where we can contribute effectively. We know where we can contribute meaningfully. And this is not it. This time is not it. How do you, like, telegraph this right now? Like, work the gamesmanship here for me.
Carter
24:56
You know, people don't
Carter
24:58
don't respond to that. They don't respond to seeing cards on the table. They don't respond to seeing the fullness of information coming forward. What they respond to is the immediacy of action. and memories
Carter
25:10
memories you're pretending like people remember stuff they
Carter
25:14
will not remember i mean yes they will remember the turmoil they will remember the heartache they will remember the deaths they will remember the the conflict but they will not remember you know two thursday march the 7th uh news release was being pulled um they will i mean we barely remember the we controversy i mean yes we've
Carter
25:34
we've talked about this so many times that people don't remember And this particular situation is much, much, much more tragic than most situations. But it does not mean that we are going to remember. It's not our DNA. It is not our psychological capacity to do this. I mean, some will, but most people won't.
Zain
26:01
your thoughts on Carter's analysis here, and then the heart of my question is, can you plan for this now? Can you strategize and telegraph any of this right now, if this is indeed your plan?
Corey
26:13
I think the reality is this is much more personal for many people, and just the scale of the crisis means it will stick in people's minds a little harder than the WE scandal. scandal but that said steven is not wrong that people do tend to look at things a little bit more um like it all fades to it all fades right you you you barely have the ability to remember what happened six months ago you know even if it was significant in your own life and we just ping from one thing to the next thing here and that's a that's a real challenge that we have and and frankly democracies are not super good at keeping their attention on anything we're two years into ukraine being invaded for example and i mean it's it's just not prevalent in our lives the way it was yeah
Corey
27:00
even a year ago certainly not two years ago here so that's that's kind of the tragic reality that we find ourselves in on these particular matters i do think two
Corey
27:11
two things one is i do believe a government can start putting signals like we are going to do whatever we can to help rebuild and you can start putting that telegraphing out there as you said but i also think we're sort of losing where we are right now which is the government delayed a
Corey
27:30
check cutting right like this is not canada that's going to have to go in there and deliver the aid this is money to the united nations that would allow the united nations then to provide the aid and you look i'll i'm going to give you two reads right now one is that's the easiest thing a country can do it requires no assignment of basically anything besides that but the second is
Corey
27:52
there's a lot of countries that can cut checks like that too so it's also possible that in this giant morass that we're talking about the government of canada has calculated waiting a week doesn't hurt anybody because money is going to flow regardless we can work out with our allies that our money comes a little bit later like this is a cash flow problem this is an accounting problem For the United Nations. It's not necessarily an actual aid problem at this particular point, if we're just talking about a couple of days, right? And yeah, like, I just, I wouldn't overthink this one either, right? Like, I don't think that the government of Canada is any more than it has putting people at risk, because there are ways you can work around this. And we'll see what the next week comes. But it's not, let's
Corey
28:38
let's not read too, too much into this one. we're
Zain
28:40
we're gonna leave that segment there carter moving on to our next segment politicians pollsters and pundits all my favorites
Zain
28:48
one carter great yeah
Zain
28:49
yeah all in one i want to i want to hit on something that i find interesting so michelle rempelgarner the
Zain
28:54
the member of parliament conservative member of parliament as we know she has her own sub stack it's got nearly 75 000 subscribers to it, Carter. And on it, okay, she says, she's got a photo of herself. And the description is not that, hey, I'm Michelle Rempel-Garner. I'm the conservative MP. I'm the longtime, you know, you know me, you've seen me from here. No, no, that's not the description, Carter. In fact, what is the description is, this is punditry and policy and two things she's expert at.
Zain
29:26
And she's written this article about in Durham, Trudeau trapped himself in in the corner.
Zain
29:31
And she gives four reasons why, ultimately, right? Durham is a conservative-held seat. The liberals never implied they could win it. She's like, that's wrong. That's bullshit. Hear me tell you why. You know, the expectations were raised, but it doesn't really matter. People will forget that. She's like, nope, that's bullshit. The voter turnout was so low. Doesn't matter. She kind of goes against it. She gives you some polling. She gives you some historical evidence. And then she says, the only election that matters is a general election. She says, says no bullshit by elections matter etc oh
Carter
29:58
oh my goodness yeah so
Zain
30:00
so i i to me there's there's there's a bunch of stuff in the actual argument that i find interesting and we'll talk about durham in a second so hold your horses on durham what
Zain
30:08
what i find more interesting is the form here like
Zain
30:11
like she's acting like as a pundit like this is a piece that as a conservative uh you know a lobbyist i would put out right or a a surrogate i would put out and so to me the question i have carter is this Is this new age, or is this as old school as time? Is this just a spin with a new format in medium, now finding a different vantage? Or is this actually a new age where every politician is also simultaneously, comma, their own media company, comma, their own pundit trying to find resources? What do you think?
Carter
30:46
you just said it every politician is their own media company now you know if you can build an audience of 75 000 people be it on twitter or facebook or substack um you know i mean tiktok wherever you can find an audience you have to publish your content now you know if you're going to do a video you got to do the video in the horizontal format and the vertical format if you're going to do uh you know because you got to post it to reels and you got to post it to tiktok and you got to put it up on youtube uh shorts and you know everything
Carter
31:17
everything everything is is you now need to find your own mediums because cory was circulating some information just the other day about what the calgary herald and calgary sun circulation rates look like spoiler they're not great they take michelle rempel's sub stack michelle rempel's sub stack is like five times larger than their circulation rates this isn't great news for the for the media when when and all this really is is is uh spin on a different level it's just spin done by a by a politician written down in a sub stack instead of actually put in in some different format so that to me is is exactly why and and cory cory totally agrees with me right cory i
Corey
32:05
i i do actually actually, shockingly, sadly, tragically. This has just been dressed up as analysis. You even had in your question, Zane, is this just being like a surrogate? Well, people have had political surrogates forever, right? Who go out, and this is an old tactic, right? This is this idea that I'm the guy who's going to level with you. I'm the gal who's going to level with you. Let me show you behind the curtain. Let me show you your strings, puppet. I'll show you how these people are trying I'm trying to spin you as I spin you, right? It is really about the channel. That's the only thing that's fundamentally changed here. You used to go on a show and give this kind of analysis. You could easily imagine Michelle Rempel going on CBC News World and just saying the exact same things. Yeah, absolutely. But you put it in the paper, you talk to reporters, you don't get that anymore. And so you use your own channels, you push that out. The audience is a little different. It tends to be the true believers who then carry your message further. But yeah, it's kind of the 21st century version, I think, of the same stuff politicians have been doing for a long time. You
Zain
33:12
You know, I figured this is where you guys would ultimately go and suggest that what's different here is the form or the medium, that this is this is, you know, what we expect from folks. This is taking the Twitter. But the fact is, what I find really interesting or the Twitter discourse and kind of like doing it in long form, what I find interesting, Carter, is she's almost hiding behind the fact that she's an MP.
Zain
33:37
right like it's like that is parked like it's almost like hey i just stumbled upon this really awesome like she's like she's brash she uses terms like bullshit she writes in short sentences she's like you know uh she she like uses like emojis right and she's a she's a policy person and she's a pundit i really like this michelle rample garner and it's to me it's like plain spoken oh
Zain
34:02
so to me like and maybe i'm trying to get a little bit too like nerdy about this but i do find this fascinating that she's part are you just
Zain
34:09
what am i naive
Carter
34:10
naive to see that yeah you're just too naive to see that she's setting herself for the next step is she though michelle rebel gardener has a next step this is a next steps framing that's all this is a
Zain
34:21
a next steps framing or is this trying to make the content as palatable and as relatable and accessible as as possible you're
Carter
34:28
you're conspiracy theorizing um he's got a next step that she's preparing for
Corey
34:34
I'm actually curious what you think the next step is, because in some ways it does feel
Corey
34:38
feel like the next step could be pundit, right?
Carter
34:41
It could be pundit, but she's
Carter
34:43
she's not in the inner circle of Pierre Polyev the way she was in the inner circle with Stephen Harper.
Carter
34:49
And that writing is on the wall that Pierre Polyev is probably going to be there for, well,
Carter
34:54
well, at the rate that the Liberal Party is going, probably the next 15, 20 years. so you know the this
Carter
35:00
is a tremendous opportunity for michelle rempel garner to get her you
Carter
35:05
you know to get out of dodge and to come up with some sort of next phase of life and having
Carter
35:10
having a 75 000 person sub stack i mean jesus we monetized we had what 175 000 people listening to the podcast at any given time
Corey
35:20
i think it was 12 million but sure around there yeah
Carter
35:23
yeah but we We monetized, you know, and look at us now, just rolling in cash. Just
Zain
35:28
Just sacrificing our Thursday evenings doing this shit. Hey, Carter, I hate
Zain
35:33
hate money. I hate the concept of money. It's just, it's dumb. Have you cashed
Carter
35:38
cashed your checks recently? Probably not.
Carter
35:39
Have I even gotten
Carter
35:41
any of my checks recently? We send you money, you don't cash it. We do it, it's direct deposit. Oh, okay,
Zain
35:46
okay, that's great. Don't worry
Zain
35:48
too much. Yeah, that's good, that's good, that's good. Because I would forget where the checks are. I probably store it in this drawer that Carter's freaking out. You put it in that drawer. By the way, I opened a drawer and Carter's just losing his shit. Hey, Carter, Durham, 30 points. Jamil Javadi kicked the shit out of the liberals.
Zain
36:05
Is there anything to make out of this other than it was a by-election and Polyev's on a high streak? He effectively goes plus 12 to plus 15, depending on which poll you're reading, from where the conservatives are sitting in their federal polling. Are you making anything out of this other than to be like, nope, stronghold, by-election, nothing, move on, Zane? Or do you want to tell a story here?
Carter
36:26
No, here's the story. The federal liberals are in a deep world of hurt. They are not doing well, Zane. The polls, the national polls are weak. And in a by-election, voting for the winner is an important, you know, it's more important than voting for the loser. So the turnout changes just a little bit. The numbers automatically skew. but the the truth
Carter
36:49
truth of the matter is this is an election campaign that is uh started and it may be 18 months away but right now if you're justin trudeau uh those are going to be some long painful 18 months cory
Zain
37:02
cory are you making anything of this big win but any analysis that's that's worth the time of the listeners i
Corey
37:11
tend to think that when there's a by-election for a government seat and and they lose it, people over-interpret it, right? They're like, oh my goodness, this means the government's going down. The reality is, by-elections are a wonderful way for people to punish governments without changing the government, right? I
Corey
37:28
I feel actually a bit different when it's an opposition by-election, and the opposition increases its margin of error, because the same psychology is not at play there. And this is a seat that the Conservatives were expected to win, but they were we're not expected to win it so handily, right? And I do think that the Liberals need to read the size of the margin there.
Corey
37:49
I think the swing matters more here than if it were they lost a Liberal seat where the people are like, I don't like you right now, Liberals, and I'm going to send you a message. But you know, ultimately, I know this is a pretty consequence-free thing for me to do. When you have that kind of intensity, and it's already a Conservative seat, and the Conservatives have every reason to take it for granted who live in the riding, and they come out anyways and they just really really increase that size of of the margin i think it says something about kind of this natural intensity that's kicking out here and let's be clear whose seat was it that jamil giovanni just got it won it by 30 tools yeah yeah
Corey
38:25
yeah like that's a party leader seat you expect a strong showing and he did stronger than that yeah so this is um this this is not nothing. I don't totally buy into the, you know, Michelle Rempel view of the world that this is everything. And I do think that by-elections can easily still be overstated. But
Corey
38:46
you only had this piece of data, you would say, oh, this is not looking good for the liberals. We have other data, also
Corey
38:51
also looks bad for the liberals. All the signs are telling us the same thing. They are in serious trouble. So
Zain
38:58
So I've got two questions here, one for the the liberals, one for the conservatives. Let's start with the liberals, because Corey just left us off on that on that spot, Carter.
Zain
39:07
I think my interpretation is at this point, the only thing that saves them is a massive event.
Zain
39:13
Trump could be that event. There could be some crisis, there could be some some event that snaps people into focus to be like, holy shit, that might be what saves them. Am I right or am I wrong here?
Carter
39:26
I mean, I think a big worldwide event could snap people into into focus i mean i think i said on the podcast i'm the only thing i'm more worried about than trump winning is trump losing um you know this is a really scary time for politics in the united states um already tonight you know you've got people uh declaring that the state of the union was a declaration of war on half the people of the united
Carter
39:51
united states i mean the
Carter
39:52
the the rhetoric rick is is inching higher and higher uh and we're in march um so i worry about all kinds of things so we
Carter
40:04
yeah could a world event or could a local event change things absolutely um but right now i'd have to say that uh
Carter
40:12
uh there probably is another strategy for him to win i just can't think of it and i know i'm i'm the best there is so hey
Zain
40:21
hey cory are we stuck in event territory is it is it an event or nothing like and if i guess the heart of my question is if you're there i don't even care if your answer is yes or no to be honest like how do you how do you plan for that you don't do you like you can't strip don't you just you just kind of sit on your hands and you you hope some shit happens and you hope that you're ready to respond to whatever that shit is
Corey
40:44
well so this is the the hope to respond is actually the point there's a here's the thing events can also take down governments in a heartbeat like they're not destined to be a good absolutely
Corey
40:55
governments tend to make the most of events or fail on events depending on how good their fundamental game is how do people feel about the leader do they come in with any kind of goodwill or charity are they able to elevate the conversation are they able to be those diplomats can they rally the country behind whatever cause is occurring here and all of that uh you know it ties to the things that a politician has to do any anyways like in some ways i always think and
Corey
41:22
and it's not just politics but these these big acute moments they tend to really show you who people are and they tend to show you in the case of governments what governments are made of what skill sets they still have what what kind of gas they have in the tank and do you see anything that makes you think oh these guys they'll be able to handle a big event
Corey
41:42
like i'm not trying to be shitty no but no but i think it's just as likely a big event absolutely tanks them because they handle it poorly, or they're too fatigued, or they are too insular, and they can't see past their own noses, and they are doing the things that governments do in their last years. I think that's also very possible. You're
Zain
42:01
You're right. It's not like I'm suggesting any event. Oh, God, we've got an event. Thankfully, this will see our savior. No, an event, hopefully one that is in their message box, hopefully one that leans towards more their ideology rather than their skill set or ability to execute hopefully hopefully hopefully like you know there's like the perfect event right i i but i yeah point well
Corey
42:22
what would the perfect i'm just going to spin a scenario for you right now the united states i think trump descends into civil war yeah donald trump shows fascist tendencies and all of a sudden the united states and we
Corey
42:35
we think justin trudeau is our solution no
Corey
42:39
no i mean i'm being serious like what do you think justin trudeau does there that makes him more popular well
Zain
42:43
well i don't know that's an interesting like thought experiment um that
Zain
42:48
that i'm gonna throw over to carter i
Carter
42:50
i mean ultimately ultimately he
Carter
42:53
he would respond in a way that we can't imagine right
Carter
42:56
right and that would actually be the thing that
Carter
42:59
that would jolt us out of this that
Zain
43:00
that would be because
Carter
43:01
because it would be outside of our current imagination um you
Carter
43:07
you know imagine uh canadian troops marching on washington just like in 1812 i mean i can't but it's just it's so much i want to think about just
Zain
43:16
just the fact that just 88 troops marching on on in dc is what it takes to to erase the 19 point gas i
Carter
43:25
need you to know why the dog it's wag the dog that comes from dave right like that was uh why the
Zain
43:31
the dog a great a great scene of Dave. Hey, listen, this next question is related. That's Polyev. This lead is like 15, 16, 17. There's all these narratives around about, you know, peaking too early, overexposure, hubris. I'll park those for a second.
Zain
43:46
This is what I'm interested in.
Zain
43:47
Is this enough of a lead, Carter, that Pierre can be Pierre?
Zain
43:51
That they don't need any more putting puzzle pieces together, walking with my wife, holding hands, summer advertising? That this prick can just be this this prick because they've got enough of a lead for this guy to be who he is and we don't have to stress ourselves out about the rest? Or are you still in the back of your mind planning another summer recontouring of this guy? That was really what's interesting to me right now. It's like, how much latitude do they have and what are they going to spend it on? Carter, you first and then Corey.
Carter
44:24
Well, one of our central premises of this podcast is that campaigns matter. And if campaigns matter in a four, six, eight week period, then surely politics will matter over the course of months and months and months. So everything can change. I'm not necessarily sitting here saying everything will change, but everything can change. And all that has to happen, you know, if I were running Pierre Poliev's campaign, about the last thing I was talking about is is the inevitability of the win. Right now, would I be working on it? Would I like to be where he is? Abso-fucking-lutely. Being that far in front does indicate that he's probably going to do just fine. But I'm not going to lose my mind now and just kind of say, well, fuck it. We can do whatever we want to do. But
Zain
45:19
But let me put it to you this way. Corey, let me put it to you this way. Same question, right? Pierre comes to you and says, says, guys, I've got assist lead by being me. I don't want another summer campaign to try to remodel who I am. I don't want to do this old disciplined approach bullshit. This is what's gotten us here. I'm going to do it. As a strategist, how would you be thinking of that? Like, would you be doing polling about that, Corey? Would you just be giving them the green light? How would you be responding to a moment like that, where the candidate in this case is being like, stop trying to fucking shame me. I'm good.
Corey
45:52
Yeah. Well, and look, politicians, get that feeling like when they start they start thinking they forget about the entire organization and apparatus behind them that made them good and they start to believe their own press because part of that apparatus's job is to make politicians look godlike right yes reflex is faster than anybody so clever you know their videos are so well constructed all of that and that's just not reality right they are they are the actor on a stage but there's an entire crew behind the curtain who are helping make them the person they are so listen that happens i'm not saying it doesn't i do think though you can pretty readily point to some things and say no no no what's working here is this disciplined approach that you are the heart of and you are the leader and you can change that approach i mean that's fundamentally a truism here but look at the stats it was when we started to soften your image when we made you speak or not when we made you speak but when you spoke to that conservative convention in a way that was telling a story about all of those people across canada who are worried about the next thing that's going to happen to them because of this government that is the product that has been so successful over this last bit and if you look at the trend lines from the the polling i we talked about this the other day it's
Corey
47:04
it's it's just really steady right like really steady growth for the conservatives really steady decline for the liberals and
Corey
47:11
you can turn that all around uh if you're the liberals with an assist from somebody who throws out the strategy that got you there so i don't know why the the conservatives would
Corey
47:21
would throw out what's working and try to do something different, right? There's no doubt that Pierre Polyev has softened some edges, and there's no doubt that that has worked. So why would you stop? And you're not going to just start squandering points. You want the majority. You might want the biggest majority. You might want to have that mandate that allows you to have that free hand here. And yeah, so there's no way you're going to walk away from what's working, you might lose discipline. I think that's more likely, but you're not going to strategically... Well, I guess
Zain
47:51
guess I wish I'd asked you guys this question first, which is, do you think the version of Pierre we're seeing right now is the same Pierre? Carter, I'm going to ask you this specifically, because you've been on the Pierre file for years, right? Is this the same Pierre you've known? Because I guess the fundamental question is, is he actually in his his remodeled phase post-summer or has he just gone back to who he was and and we're already kind of seeing the transition back i
Carter
48:20
mean anything that doesn't have straight up prick isn't exactly who pierre paliev is um so they are hiding pieces of his personality but they're hiding them very well and you know he's he's he does look like a different guy and he's behaving as as a different guy um and it's working so this
Carter
48:41
this isn't the real player poly of but you know what all
Carter
48:45
all these politicians aren't the real they're
Carter
48:47
they're they're real selves um
Carter
48:49
um they are scripted they are sculpted they you know i
Carter
48:53
was looking at some pictures of politicians that i've worked with in the past that you know and their hair styles have changed and you know oh gee that's not great the hairstyle style is changing well at
Carter
49:05
the same time you know like really
Carter
49:07
really we shouldn't be that fussed about someone's hairstyle but we are fussed about hairstyle because it is all part of the package and
Carter
49:14
and the package is that cleverly sculpted thing that cory alludes
Carter
49:18
alludes to it is something bigger than the individual politician and therefore
Carter
49:23
therefore it requires constant
Carter
49:24
constant attention and constant management and pierre polliev would be a lunatic to walk away from that which has brought him to this stage
Zain
49:33
Corey, any final words before we move it on?
Corey
49:36
Well, the Liberals have gotten into this hole slowly. It will take them time to get out of it. They do have time. They could get a point or two over the next couple of months. They could get themselves close for a campaign, and they could do well in that campaign. It's not likely. It is possible. I think it would be aided by the Liberals making some big plays. Frankly, it would probably be aided by a change of leadership at the Liberal Party, although it certainly
Corey
50:02
certainly doesn't sound like
Corey
50:04
to happen at this point but
Corey
50:09
has been no turnaround you know for the the vaunted liberal turnaround that we were supposed to see in the fall in the winter is not it's almost spring now it's not happening just
Carter
50:19
just one more cabinet shuffle cory one more cabinet shuffle it'll be right there finally
Zain
50:23
finally just put one of us in cabinet that's just one more that's the only
Zain
50:26
they haven't tried yet is
Carter
50:28
you you because you're the vice son to the vice regal so it's got to be core that's true i'm
Zain
50:32
i'm also actively campaigning so i'm not sure if i could do that i'm
Zain
50:34
i'm actively currently campaigning there's a lot of things going on cory we're going to move it on to our over under in our lightning round uh because we do it for stephen carter uh carter this is all for you um overrated or underrated carter this delay uh for the liberals on this this uh palestinian refugee funding to the un you know i've talked about the mechanics of it the the the the the beats on it so to speak but But is it overrated or underrated, this delay from a pure political basis in your mind?
Carter
51:02
Overrated. I honestly believe that our attention spans are mush. We will remember the carnage. We will not remember the specifics. Corey,
Zain
51:10
Corey, overrated or underrated
Corey
51:14
Overrated. I think half of the audience is going to say, I didn't know that was happening. And the other half, if they're listening to this show two days from now, will not remember that this happened.
Zain
51:27
Corey, are you in or out on this? The federal NDP, they're pushing the Liberals in their budget, which is coming up later than it usually does, April 16th. They're pushing the federal Liberals to include a national school food program in their upcoming budget. It's a provincial program that has worked in British Columbia. I believe it's just been launched in Manitoba, if I'm not mistaken, both places that have NDP governments. This is what the NDP are pushing for, to
Zain
51:53
to the federal Liberals. part of their their little supply and confidence agreement are
Zain
51:58
are you in or out on this cory
Corey
52:00
i say i really love the idea of school nutrition programs and generally speaking i like to think of myself as somebody who if
Corey
52:09
if i'm given the option i will say i want a stronger federal government i think i'm out on the federal government doing so many things in provincial responsibility
Corey
52:18
like it's just like again this goes back to what i was saying a couple of episodes ago like land some planes would you please right like get some good robust programs developed in consultation with the jurisdiction that's actually responsible i'm not saying you need to entirely vacate the space but fuck enough
Corey
52:36
enough already okay like yeah and i support the school lunch program if you want to give money to the provinces to figure it out i guess go for it but oh my god like
Corey
52:45
like this is just federal overreach at this point carter
Zain
52:48
carter you know this is something that has been popular, and it seems to have worked where it's been tried. Are
Zain
52:56
Are you in or out on it?
Carter
52:58
I'm so out on it. I mean, I just I appreciate the idea of it. I'm not against children having proper nutrition. But I would, I
Carter
53:07
I see this almost as a local school board issue funded by the provincial governments. I'm just, I
Carter
53:13
just don't think that the federal government can be all all things to all people um you know and i get it you know it's hard to sell fisheries in western canada um but you
Carter
53:25
you you just have to recognize what your responsibilities are and maybe i'm just throwing it out there do a better job on defense you know like it's just it it's
Carter
53:34
it's it's significant overreach for me you
Zain
53:37
you know carter i i feel like there is this moment we're living in where regardless of your political stripe, you are, especially in the federal side of things, you're pulling everything up. Housing is a great example, right? Peer is campaigning on something he's got some, but not all control on, so to speak. But in this one, I get it. It's pure sort of provincial jurisdiction. It is problematic. Liberals have been so, so at best on kind of delivering on some of these national programs going province to province, even when they're coming with boatloads of money. Carter, final one for you. you overrated or underrated Jamil Jivani winning in the Durham by-election? What is that in your mind? Overrated or underrated as we look on to the conservatives, the liberals and the NDP in the federal scene going forward?
Carter
54:23
I think probably underrated. I think that the truth of the matter is that this is a big warning sign for the liberals. And I think that there'll probably be a
Carter
54:33
lot of voices just sweeping it under the table and saying, or sweeping it under the carpet, saying this isn't real. It is real. It's going to be real for a long time.
Zain
54:42
Corey, overrated or underrated the Giovanni win in Durham?
Corey
54:47
Look, I think it's not bad for the conservatives. I just told you why I think it's actually a big warning sign for the liberals, but I think overrated. At the end of the day, it doesn't change the math in parliament.
Zain
54:57
We are going to leave it there. That's a wrap on episode 1290 of The Strategist. My name is Zane Velgey. With me as always, Stephen Carter, Corey Hogan, and we'll see you next time.