Episode 1262: Counterfeelings

Zain 0:01

This is The Strategist, episode 1262. My name is Zain Velji. With me, as always, Corey Hogan, Stephen Carter. Carter, it's been too long.

Carter 0:10

How's it? It feels like just

Corey 0:11

just yesterday. It was earlier today. I

Corey 0:12

I was hoping you'd keep it. Yeah, didn't you give him a car ride home, Carter?

Carter 0:16

I did give him a car ride home, and he was grateful, but he forgot his jacket because my car was so warm.

Zain 0:22

Carter, we were at a live recording of a different podcast. Well, you were at a conference. I showed up for the live recording.

Carter 0:28

i went to the conference to learn stuff and then instead of learning anything i watched well

Zain 0:32

well no you mean instead of learning anything you had to listen to to other people who didn't know what they're talking about and i'm not you

Carter 0:38

you did have a few good lines for the other podcast yeah that's pretty good cory

Corey 0:42

cory oh did you steal some of our lines

Carter 0:44

i created them on my own on my own oh

Carter 0:47

this was possibly the only time i've ever seen him not steal our messaging but the primary reason for it appears to be he hasn't been listening to the podcast yeah

Corey 0:54

yeah oh fair bear ball also chad

Corey 0:56

gpt like can we really be sure that it was zane that's

Carter 1:00

listen a broken clock twice a day something carter was everyone

Zain 1:03

everyone overdressed at the event or was i underdressed

Zain 1:07

no you were underdressed

Carter 1:07

underdressed you were the only person in a hoodie

Zain 1:10

cory let me tell you something these public affairs professionals take life too seriously okay yeah

Corey 1:15

yeah well ian brody had denim we used to be there yeah oh ian had denim on that's good okay

Zain 1:19

okay yeah well i mean he was also wrong about a lot of stuff so um oh were you on a panel panel with him like

Zain 1:26

were you on a panel with him yes i was i would have like it was our homie jb jb

Zain 1:30

jb the polling oracle janet brown myself oh okay and uh ian brody uh now what

Zain 1:38

haven't actually named the other podcast i don't

Corey 1:39

don't think we should no i

Zain 1:41

don't think they want to learn more about this podcast they can visit westofcenter.ca they can visit

Carter 1:50

but you know what though what i thought was amazing cory is that ian all by himself himself played the role of two asshole white guys like it was pretty impressive that guy

Zain 1:58

guy that guy you're busy like yeah carter was there he was he promised he promised to heckle he promised to heckle um i took

Zain 2:07

took a call and

Carter 2:08

and so i wasn't there for the

Zain 2:09

the beginning listen you you you were there for the parts that mattered which is the parts where i shined i

Carter 2:13

i did have to get up in pace for part of it because okay let's

Zain 2:15

let's stop talking about that cory i haven't talked to you in a while what's going on with you anything uh anything exciting in your world carter

Carter 2:21

carter how are you

Zain 2:22

doing well? No, Zane. Thank you for asking. Are we good, Carter? Are we ready to move?

Carter 2:27

I keep asking you if you want to go for a bike ride. I don't.

Zain 2:29

don't. It's snowing outside. And you keep ignoring me. It's actually, at this point, it's inappropriate. It's threatening me to ride a bike. Yeah, you have to stop asking. You've

Carter 2:37

You've managed to put it off. This feels now like a next year project.

Zain 2:40

project. Yeah, it does feel like a next year project. It does.

Zain 2:43

It will next year, too. It absolutely will next year. Anything else to discuss before we jump into it, guys? We've got a lot to talk about.

Zain 2:51

we don't have anything to talk about carter we're moving on to our first segment our first segment an

Zain 2:57

an oldie but a goodie fine fabulous

Corey 3:02

perfect i gotta tell you zane ever since you sort of revealed to us on a podcast on i think it was on the patreon that you go to the fine fabulous or fucked format when you just don't think the energy's there for the show

Zain 3:11

show i see right now no let me tell you something i'm actually this is how bad the energy on the show is right right now okay it feels like a different podcast first of all i'm not going to name which podcast okay no and don't even don't even don't even really compare it to a different podcast carter come on uh however i'm

Zain 3:26

i'm going to add it and i'm going to add a twist because i'm going to give you guys a fourth option oh you see oh

Corey 3:30

oh we always like

Zain 3:30

like you see here's the thing you

Carter 3:32

you always do well

Carter 3:32

with the twists i've

Zain 3:33

i've realized over the years that that fine is

Zain 3:38

uh yeah fucked it's fabulous fucked is also fine okay it's it's also fabulous um fabulous rarely gets used now i don't know if that's over the over the years that you guys have just become cynical uh hard markers uh if carter has just uh given up on life and nothing is fabulous anymore at this stage and everything

Zain 3:57

aches and everything hurts right there's no taste anything fabulous there's no taste the only thing fabulous is a bowel movement at 7 30 so i'm gonna add a fourth category guys and i like this fourth

Zain 4:08

fourth fourth category. I don't want to

Zain 4:08

talk about it. It's going to be fine. It's going to be fabulous, Carter. It's going to be frustrating.

Zain 4:15

And it's going to be fucked. And frustrating. I like frustrating because it adds a level of political headache or heartburn that you can get over.

Zain 4:24

But it's neither fine nor fucked. Yes, Corey, are you going to test me on the new rubric that I've presented to

Corey 4:32

to you? Well, I'm just going to observe. Often when you introduce a fourth In the fourth category, we do one of two things. We either refuse to use it or we only use it. Well,

Zain 4:39

Well, I think at this point, frustrating is pretty good. I think it's a keeper. I'm

Zain 4:41

I'm very excited about frustrating, which is kind of like what you're being right now, Corey. Okay. Carter, you don't seem all that sold on frustrating.

Carter 4:51

No, I'm always sold on everything you do, Zane. I've never had an issue with anything I've

Carter 4:55

ever done. Carter, you're

Zain 4:57

you're going to love this. It's going to be what you want. Let's start here. Yep.

Zain 5:01

Ontario NDP guys have kicked out Hamilton MPP Sarah Jama from caucus after controversial Gaza comments. She has been booted, Corey, by Marit Stiles, the leader of the NDP, in a statement on Monday that while the caucus allowed different viewpoints, some of her actions since making her comments have, quote, contributed to unsafe work environments for staff. Ms. Cham and I reached an agreement to keep her in the NDP caucus, which included working together in good faith with no surprises. Our caucus and staff have made significant efforts to support her during an undoubtedly difficult time. Corey, she's gone.

Zain 5:39

She's gone. For the NDP, is

Zain 5:43

Is this fabulous? Is this frustrating? Or is this totally fucked? And I'm going to talk about her censure in

Zain 5:50

in the legislature in a second, but in terms of her being booted out of caucus, Corey, give it to me. Well,

Corey 5:56

Well, I think it's flummoxing, because in many ways, the position that she's taken is not particularly outside the mainstream in the NDP. Now, there

Corey 6:05

there were an awful lot of people who took exception with specific words that she used in her original statement, but

Corey 6:12

but her cleanup statement really brought it into line with a viewpoint that I think you'd hear many people espousing with the NDP. So it certainly leads me to believe there is more going on beneath the surface than what we can necessarily see. And to me, one of the big tells of that really is the idea that there was a work plan, no surprises, and things

Corey 6:33

came out of that that seemed to have surprised the leader. So that suggests to me, like, this is kind of a classic thing where, I mean, I'll just say, I'll just say, like, there was a, there was an incident a while back, I won't name the specific situation, where there was a billboard put up, and the person responsible for the communications in that area, they got fired like that, just gone. And many of us observing within the industry thought, well,

Corey 6:58

well, there has to be more to it than that. Like, none of us are just like one bad billboard away from termination unless there's something more significant going on in terms of interpersonal conflict or, you know, clashing of visions between two people. And that to me feels very much what's going on here. This is one of those situations where if the leader wanted to

Corey 7:19

to save her career, she could have. And if the leader was looking for an excuse to end it, she could. it. Carter,

Zain 7:25

the NDP wanted Sarah Gemma badly. This was their star candidate in a by-election in Hamilton to replace Andrew Horvath. You know, she's a Muslim woman, she's a black woman, she's a disability advocate. They knew her perspectives on this file, frankly, prior to her even seeking and winning office. But she's gone, Carter. So for the NDP, is this fine? Is this fabulous? Is this frustrating or is this fucked, Carter?

Carter 7:53

think it's fair. um this is a i

Carter 7:57

i will shut down this is a okay

Zain 7:59

i will shut down this fucking podcast okay no i like fair i think there's good is it fair you

Carter 8:04

you want to go with fair it's fair because here's what happens i mean i agree with cory's analysis right like this isn't just one badly worded statement this is something because the other thing that's usually afforded people is the ability to walk it back but she hasn't walked it back she hasn't reached into the mainstream of what her party expects from her. So I think that this is one of those moments where leaders are expected to lead. And to me, this just seems fair. So it

Carter 8:33

it was fair for me. And I think... Shortchanging

Zain 8:35

Shortchanging your analysis just to fit a definition of fair, Carter. You have more to say. And it is very clear you have more to say. But Carter, Corey, I'm going to come to you in a second. But Carter, stick with me.

Zain 8:47

Do you agree with Corey that it is indeed flummoxing? Like, This perspective she has held

Zain 8:52

held and verbalized is not all that offside with the NDP perspective or what's socially acceptable within the NDP movement. And not even just like this flare-up of the incident and the history, but historically, I would say.

Carter 9:10

I would say, though, that the unsafe

Carter 9:14

unsafe atmosphere is something that's very interesting. The language associated with that indicates that there is something behind this because the unsafe atmosphere for staff, like I don't think it's just getting more negative calls. I mean, every political operative ever has to deal with negative calls. I think that there's something that that kind of goes beyond that. That's more about her behavior. So in terms of what this looks like from afar, this is a leader taking a fair action against someone who's not participating in the process. That's why it's not flummoxing for me. Corey has a difficult time understanding big concepts, but for me, this is fair. You

Corey 9:58

so you mentioned star candidacy, and it's also, I think, got to be pointed out that sometimes star candidates don't get along well with caucuses. They are stars because they have risen to great heights and they command great authority in the spheres from which they came. And a caucus is a very different beast. A caucus is about following a party line, following the leader. And in my experience, the thing about stars is they can often go supernova. They can just disappear from the sky. And it

Corey 10:31

might be a situation like that, too. Like, I'm really hesitant to suggest that kind of this innuendo about how staff are being treated and the environment is, like, I don't want to give that stuff too, too much credence. But I do think that, you

Corey 10:46

more of the story will come out in the days to come. Corey,

Zain 10:47

Corey, Corey, tell me in these terms, did Andrew, did Marge Stiles have to do this?

Corey 10:53

uh no like i said this is this was the leader's prerogative the leader had avenues available to her and styles decided ultimately that this is what she now again looks i'm saying this all without actually knowing the full details behind the scene but i will say based on the public facts there

Corey 11:10

were options available we

Corey 11:12

we only have the public facts right now but sometimes this is a way you can deal with a challenging situation right you know it's that old adage never waste a good crisis and if they were having challenges internally maybe

Corey 11:25

maybe this resolves some of them now is that fair is that right different conversation but certainly it's a lever that leaders have been known to pull carter

Zain 11:33

carter does this age well within

Zain 11:34

within the ndp uh

Carter 11:37

within the ndp is an interesting i want to start there first you know kind of

Carter 11:41

yeah i mean the ndp uh i think we've spoken about kind kind of which side this could be more challenging for. And the NDP was certainly identified earlier on as being a potential, this being a real challenge.

Corey 11:58

I might change my answer on that one, by

Carter 12:00

by the way. I know, but this is, I'm just, you know, I'm kind of- Foreshadowing. I'm allowing you to change your answer, Corey, but right now I need you to be consistent. Please, just for the sake of the show. I know this is not your general MMI answer. For God's sake. You've got to hold it together. Yeah.

Carter 12:15

Anyways, I think that all of this is going to pose problems for the NDP. The situation in and of itself is not easy politically. We've talked about that at length, and this doesn't make it easier on a leader. It is a complex issue. issue.

Carter 12:36

You know, there were many elements in her statement that are just factually kind of

Carter 12:40

of close to true, you know, and so how do you, how

Carter 12:44

do you deal with that? But, you know, her statement also ignored a tremendous amount of other facts that are absolutely true. And this is the challenge of these types of, of issues. And when this is what we talked about before, I mean, how do you make the statement? How do you thread the needle on this? And, and my thing, I think I think the biggest problem was that she didn't attempt to thread a needle at all. And that's why I think it's fair that the leader acted as she did.

Zain 13:13

how does this age within the NDP movement? And I use movement on purpose, because it is a movement and it has held these perspectives that Ms. Chama shares, not in those exact words, but sentimentally, I think it's fair to say that many in the party hold those perspectives.

Corey 13:30

Yeah. And, you know, there's a couple of things to throw on the table. One is that Carter's absolutely right. Situations like this almost, I'd say demand context, not in the sense we normally mean it. I mean that when politicians speak, they're expected to provide a context to these things, even when they hold views. Now, that's really interesting to say. And, you

Corey 13:48

you know, when we consider some of the other statements that perhaps were not afforded context in other contexts, context in other contexts, holy cow. But, yeah, that was a lot. You

Corey 13:59

crushing it. You must be so

Carter 14:02

Yeah, he's really intelligent. Yeah.

Corey 14:04

Yeah. But, you know, if you ask me how it's going to age, I think that's something on Stiles' mind, because I think part of the statement and the way it described other challenges and sort of tried to change the root challenge from a particular worldview to, I think, interpersonal conflict and the way that Gemma manages these things internally in the NDP is a way to be able to say down the road, it wasn't about that, it was about this. So will it be successful? I don't know. But to me, there was a clear planting of that flag to allow that kind of latitude down the road.

Zain 14:39

Carter, you know, the question I have beyond the movement is

Zain 14:43

is we've talked earlier, and I think mostly not on the pod, but we've talked over text in other places, how even the statements from the first week of this crisis, and I'm going to use the same term again, have not necessarily aged well, in the sense that they may have included all the context for Hamas, but now they don't include any of the context for what's happened since then. And they don't necessarily look maybe too forthright or too one-sided. This was, of course, in an era where many were being accused of both sides-ism. Well, now, you know, people are asking in some ways, not to be too overly simplistic, for both sides-ism to actually explain the other side in some ways. How does this move sit in the broader sort of frame outside of the NDP? Any thoughts What's there from like a political strategy or even like analysis perspective of how booting out a

Zain 15:33

a woman, and let me add all, you know, and I've mentioned, you know, a disability rights activist, a Muslim woman, a black woman out

Zain 15:41

out of your caucus. What does that kind of signal about the NDP? Not so much inside the NDP, but outside of the NDP.

Carter 15:50

mean, all of these things are designed to signal certain allegiances and alliances, right? Right. And I think those allegiances and alliances kind of started off very much in favor of Israel. And now that we're starting to see the inevitable action from Israel, I'm not going to characterize it with any words to

Carter 16:12

to describe that action. I'm just going to say that there is action. And, you know, there are counter

Carter 16:20

feelings now. right both both sides isms are coming in because there are two sides there are well there's more than two sides frankly there's multiple sides to this particular issue and with that with those multiple sides comes complexity and what

Carter 16:34

what have we learned what do we what do we what do we kind of almost caution about you know the simplistic answer or

Carter 16:40

or the simplistic statement um does not hold up particularly well in these very

Carter 16:49

detailed, complicated historical issues. And the facts that existed immediately after the Hamas invasion are now different now that we're seeing the counter narrative, as they were after

Carter 17:05

after 9-11, right? 9-11 stands as a great example of this. There was an initial action taken, and then there was a series of counteractions and those counteractions um are viewed differently through the lens of history than they were viewed through the lens of immediacy and so i think that you know your question is will it be viewed of course it will be viewed differently we don't know where all of this will end up um but i suspect that uh the the reason that as cory's alluded that the The NDP has taken this kind of, and this has created bigger problems, is to allow that cover so that it does age with a little bit more grace, or at least there's the opportunity to add a little bit more flavor.

Zain 17:52

flavor. I'm not going to lead you here, but I'll add it as context. You know, you've in previous podcasts talked about the Muslim population and its growth in this country, especially in urban centers. You've also alluded to the, I know on a very sort of binary perspective, the growth of support in Canada for the Palestinian cause. Not driving you here, but it is attached to the question. But bought me a bus ticket. Yeah, exactly. But I bought you a red arrow ticket, and it is free, and it's got your name on it. It's one of those single seats right behind and right in front of those cookies. Corey, what

Zain 18:26

what do you think?

Corey 18:27

It's a very Alberta reference.

Zain 18:29

reference. of course this is supposed to be an alberta reference although we're talking about ontario and honestly if you're in ontario go fuck yourself um that

Zain 18:38

was a kind of needless it was also albert come on we

Zain 18:43

we can be in the depths of discussing something important and then we can give them a sharp elbow that's very alberta of us what

Zain 18:48

what do you think cory like mainly around how this will be perceived about the ndp outside of the ndp i'm kind of curious about that. The movement itself, you know, talks about the intersectionalities and the identities and all that such, but does this help, hurt, hinder, do nothing for the NDP from how it's viewed on the outside?

Corey 19:07

Well, you know, TBD,

Corey 19:09

TBD, I think, is where you're living history. And some of the things that we thought were kind of major threads even two weeks ago are receding. Some other threads have really kind of picked up. And I mean, ultimately,

Corey 19:22

ultimately, it's going to take a little little bit of perspective and distance for us to understand any of this in any real sense but when you look at the broader thrust of demographics that you're talking about here i mean yeah i mean by and large canadians are more supportive of uh the palestinian cause of independence than they were 20 30 years ago and that it is also the official position of the government of canada to have a two-state solution right so we're

Corey 19:48

we're kind of stacking on stacking on on here and um it's a it's a really tough one for political parties and we've talked about this i think on the in the episode we went pretty deep on this here but you know the the kind the reason one of the reasons why the statements at the start were a little bit herky-jerky and people couldn't even necessarily bring themselves to give like the full-throated condemnations of terrorism that you would you know frankly expect at a moment like this is because there is so much context and and there is so much of an understanding that has evolved over time in terms of kind of the Palestinian state, you know, people were doing calculations. And, you

Corey 20:25

you know, frankly, kind of the unqualified support for Israel hasn't been tested in a very long time. And this was a pretty significant test. And frankly, it was a horrible, horrible act of terror that occurred in Israel. And so, you know, I think it should have been pretty easy to condemn.

Corey 20:42

one of the reasons I I think, people were a little tripped up in those first couple of days is because of this change in reality. And the fact that the cause of Palestinian independence is much more prominent in Canada than it was. So if you assume that's the baseline, if you assume that's the baseline, then, you know, just as 9-11 and the horror of that faded, and let's be fucking clear, that was a horrifying day. You know, we can all cast our minds back there. You

Corey 21:11

You know, No, it's human nature. Tragedy fades. And people shift their opinions of things. And Carter's comment about how we view the responses to things also changes really resonates with me. And so I don't know. But I think if I was going to guess at this particular moment, I

Corey 21:31

I would say it is going to cause a lot of pressure in political parties like the NDP and political parties like the the liberals that have taken very strong stances that are maybe not, you

Corey 21:43

know, their supporters don't feel as strongly, right? They may feel as strongly about the specific moment of terror and Hamas and, you know, the need to stand with Israel as Israel mourns in that moment, but may feel very different about the actions to come. It's just a simple reality. That's a political reality that I

Corey 21:59

think is going to be causing a lot of politicians, a lot of sleepless nights over the next bit carter

Corey 22:05

carter i'm gonna politicians

Carter 22:08

very clear view on what happened after 9-11 and you know horrible day all those all the words right but horrible

Carter 22:19

horrible outcome for for so many different people for so long and now we look back and we look back at the patriot act or we look back at the invasion of iraq um you know with a with a with different feelings with trepidation with with concern

Zain 22:35

or feelings issues and right well

Carter 22:39

do you think um uh but you

Carter 22:44

you know joe even joe biden right i would argue the strongest support for israel came from the americans as it tends to and even joe biden and said, though, you know, look at us and look at look at the mistakes that we made after our after our national tragedy and be aware, right, be aware and try and be better. And that didn't get a lot of a lot of coverage, a lot of attention in my mind. But it really was a seminal moment because that was basically saying, you know, please be careful. You you've got our support, but please be careful and that

Carter 23:23

that was i think as far as he could go in that moment and

Corey 23:27

and that's as far as he went you

Carter 23:28

you know like he he did go as as far as he could uh to at least begin something vaguely resembling a conversation about what does too far look like from the from the israelis in the in the aftermath

Zain 23:39

aftermath i'm gonna move i'm gonna move it i'm gonna keep it on the topic though but i'm gonna move it on fine

Zain 23:44

fine fabulous frustrating or fuck stephen carter on monday the ford government vote in favor of a motion that not only acts as a form of disapproval for Sarah Jama, but also prevents the Speaker from recognizing her until a formal apology is made and the social media post is deleted. Carter, this is a censure. A motion was passed 63 to 23, with the NDP voting against, to censure her in the legislature.

Zain 24:13

From the perspective of Ontario's sort of politics or democracy, the broader lens, ends carter is this fine is

Zain 24:20

is this fabulous is this just frustrating or is this fucked give it to me

Carter 24:27

ah you know how well i i think it's i think it's frustrating um no

Zain 24:33

no it's fine he broke

Zain 24:33

broke it he broke it car it's fine we

Carter 24:36

we were i i was i was googling i know you couldn't do it i couldn't come up with an f word um i worked really hard for it but i couldn't find one listen uh here's why it's frustrating every person that is elected i think deserves the right to have a voice within the legislature um having

Carter 24:57

having said that there are times when people need

Carter 25:00

need censure they need need they need to be pulled back from their

Carter 25:06

their their own little evils right like there's certain things that that are done within the legislature on parliamentary language uh any number of of different things. Um, I'm not sure that this reaches that category. And, uh,

Carter 25:20

I mean, she faced another consequence

Carter 25:23

consequence and that consequence was being removed from her caucus. That was a, that is a big consequence. So I'm not sure that I really understand, you

Carter 25:32

you know, where the Ford government and where, I mean, everybody else is just piling onto this. Um, and I'm not sure that it's, it's It's in the best interest of parliamentary tradition. And that's how I would put it in terms of parliamentary tradition, not necessarily in what she said, how she said it, what she meant, who she offended, who she may have offended. But just in terms of parliamentary tradition, I fear that there has been a step too far with this particular. Corey,

Zain 26:01

Corey, I know you're searching for F words, which is what you'd mainly do with your spare time. Fine, fabulous, frustrating, or fucked. Sarah Jemmich is censured in the Ontario legislature.

Corey 26:11

I think it's a fine example of factionalism. All

Corey 26:14

All that they're trying to do right now is create a wedge between themselves and the NDP. They know this is an issue that causes the NDP a great deal of discomfort because of where the expectation and where convention is on this

Corey 26:29

this issue at this moment and the various pressures that are being felt for people to rightly condemn an act of terror against Israel. and uh

Corey 26:39

that that's kind of politics 101 when your opponent is twisting help

Corey 26:44

help them twist a little right and create these moments that you can then point to and by putting it into the legislature and putting it in terms of the censure what they have done is they have turned it into a situation where you can point to the ndp caucus not just one member of the ndp caucus is taking a stand on something so is it is it cool of them is it cool of the ford government to play it this And try to pull at kind of these tensions that exist within society? I don't think so. But I mean, if that's the bar, I've got a problem with an awful lot of politics that's going on in an awful lot of places right now. But yeah, this is just conventional web or wedge politics. This is just factionalism. Corey,

Zain 27:23

Corey, do you have any more heartburn around like the democratic cause or the parliamentary tradition cause? Or Carter and I, perhaps as a group being so romantic about that? I'm kind of curious to get your take on that particular angle of it.

Corey 27:39

I mean, I don't know. I could spin an argument on either side. These bodies do govern themselves because they're not governed by anything else. And so, yeah, rules get created. The majority create those rules. Are those rules always right and just and fair? Absolutely not. I mean, but that goes back to the founding of this country. Louis Riel was, you know, kicked out of Parliament and then sent back to Parliament and so on and so forth. And, you know, obviously, his later antics are seen in different lights. But, you

Corey 28:12

you know, he's considered one of the fathers of Confederation with the Red River Rebellion and all of that. And yeah,

Corey 28:18

yeah, I mean, you

Corey 28:20

you can look at these things through a lot of different lenses there. And I ultimately don't think this is the most egregious assault on kind of the authority of an individual member, although it's not great, right? I don't love it. And, you know, the one that I don't like about it is the speaker failing to recognize it, because

Corey 28:38

because there is the sense that a representative should be

Corey 28:41

be able to speak their mind, even if that's unpopular. And I feel that there are different, more appropriate measures that are available if a legislature wants to show displeasure. And that, to me, was probably a bridge too far.

Zain 28:58

let me ask you this. I've got more to move on to, but I want to put you in this position because it makes me happy. Okay, great. You're helping Sarah Jama today.

Zain 29:08

What would you suggest she do? Here's what she has done. She spoke in the legislature today saying she hopes more politicians like herself will speak out on it. She reaffirmed all her commitment, called the Israeli sort of counteroffensive inappropriate, called for a ceasefire. What would you advise her to do here? You know, given the political box that she is in, right? We're talking the raw political box that she's in. She's out of the caucus. She's been censured on either of those two fronts or even what she says outside of the legislature. What would your advice to someone like her be if you're just focused on her as a political actor here?

Carter 29:47

Well, I think that I would ask her what her long

Carter 29:49

long-term goals are as a political operative. Does she have the intention of remaining in politics? And if she does, then I would probably suggest to her that she needs to do a statement recognizing the challenges that she's kind of created through her statement. um put put forth the uh the the challenges with the occupation of palestine the true the position of canada as a i'm seeing a two-state solution solution and how committed she is to a two-state solution but you

Carter 30:25

you know she has to make sure that that two-state solution includes the the state that already exists and i think that that's where things kind of fell off the rails is that it looked like you know maybe she was advocating a different type of solution there and that that seems to have been the interpretation so if i'm working with her and she wants to remain in politics then that's how i take it if she doesn't remain want to remain in politics because of the the taste souring her mouth or whatever then i tell her to fucking resign like this game isn't for you move on um it just it's not for everybody right politics isn't for everybody buddy uh if this is what you

Carter 31:05

want then then you gotta make some accommodations if it's not what you want if it doesn't fit you want to be able to speak your mind uh any which way you want outside of party party control and uh the control of of a legislature then leave there's nothing stopping you from having whatever viewpoint you want to have uh outside of the outside of government government outside of the legislature.

Zain 31:30

legislature. Corey, she's also threatening the premier with legal action against what she calls defamatory remarks, cease and desist letter sent to the premier's office as well. That's also on the go. But if you're advising her, what

Zain 31:40

what are you telling her, Corey?

Corey 31:42

Carter's is a good starting point. If you want to come out of this in some way, shape or form and proceed with your political career, you've got to write the present and you've got to rewrite the past. And that ultimately means you've created a narrative that is palatable to the constituency you're trying to win over, whether that be the NDP membership, whether that be the members in your riding, or sorry, the citizens in your riding, or whether that be the members in the legislature. So, that is going to be the work to come. I

Corey 32:13

I think one of the interesting angles on this that is probably worth at least mentioning, and I simply don't know enough about internal Ontario NDP politics to know if it's particularly relevant, is that Stiles

Corey 32:26

Stiles was acclaimed to the role of leader. Her popularity has never really been tested. We've talked a bit about the fact that support

Corey 32:34

support for the state of Palestine, or a state of Palestine, I should say, is probably

Corey 32:40

probably more popular than the political voices in leadership are making it seem at this particular moment. And I just don't know. Maybe there's a flashpoint to come in terms of the Ontario NDP membership. Certainly, there were a lot of people online who were very

Corey 32:57

very upset with her treatment. And I could easily see this becoming a bit of an internal party moment of strife. But I don't know, right? It just really depends on how firm of a grasp Stiles has on all of that. part of me thinks very firm that's why it was an acclamation part of me thinks we

Corey 33:16

we don't really know and um and

Corey 33:19

and the membership as a whole if it has any opportunities coming up to make their voice known

Corey 33:24

could could be a very interesting couple of months for the ontario ndp i'm

Zain 33:28

i'm going to leave that there i'm going to keep it on the

Zain 33:31

the israel hamas war carter because why not yeah

Carter 33:33

yeah yeah good i've been i think successful in dodging no you are you

Zain 33:38

you are going to have to give me at least one more round on this. Stephen Carter, more than 30 MPs including 23 liberals call for a ceasefire in Israel-Hamas war. These liberal MPs have written a letter to

Zain 33:49

to their Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, their party leader Justin Trudeau, calling on them to advocate for a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. Quote, Canada has been a long has long been a voice for peace, I'm sorry. The longer this conflict goes on the more innocent civilians will pay with their lives. We demand that Canada join the growing international call for an immediate ceasefire. Canada must act before more innocent children are killed. Signed 33 MPs and, as I mentioned, 23 liberals, including Nathaniel Erskine-Smith, Yasser Naqvi, Omar Al-Ghabra.

Zain 34:19

Carter, for Justin Trudeau and the liberals, is this fine that this letter's been circulating and sent over? Is this fabulous? Oh, couldn't hope for a better thing right

Zain 34:30

right now. Is this frustrating politically or is this politically fucked? Late on me.

Carter 34:37

uh i'm still out of f words um i think this is a healthy scale

Zain 34:40

scale i provided to you carter you don't you don't it's very usable

Carter 34:46

think it's frustrating because

Zain 34:47

because i'm really curious why you don't anyways keep going and i'm gonna press you on this because

Carter 34:52

because there's a few truisms within it right number one canada has long been uh proponent of peace we have served I think we've talked about our great history as peacekeepers in the world and how proud I think that Canadians are of that great history. I think that, you know, we've served in hot spots around the world, keeping people who want to kill each other apart. And I'm proud of our history as peacekeepers.

Carter 35:23

And it seems kind of ridiculous that there's a wrong time to call for peace.

Carter 35:28

You know, I don't want to—there's

Carter 35:32

to—there's an expectation right now that there is a—that

Carter 35:36

a—that Israel is due the opportunity of nationhood, which is to defend oneself. And I'm not going to—it's really hard to define where the line is. Well,

Zain 35:46

Well, and actually to your point, when the line is.

Carter 35:49

When, where, how does

Zain 35:50

does it get placed? It's an interesting perspective. And,

Carter 35:53

And, and I, I, I

Carter 35:56

think this letter gets better received in a certain amount of time. Um, and

Carter 36:02

I don't know. And I think that that's also one of my lessons from, uh, that's also one of the lessons that I saw from the Iraq and Afghanistan invasions from the United States. People who called for these types of peace initiatives, people who called for peace early, were shouted down. And I think historically, we view them very well. But in the moment, I think we view them very poorly. And I think that that's the problem that Justin Trudeau has right now, is there'll be too many people viewing this poorly. Boy,

Zain 36:31

Boy, Carter's gone. I'm giving you the scale. You know it. Lay it on me. What is it?

Corey 36:38

very frenzied behavior by the MPs. And I think too reactive. Look, we have talked about this. We are still in this moment. You know, I can't get past this. I appreciate kind of this overall plea for peace, but there are hundreds of hostages still being held. We are still in this moment. What the call for peace right now is saying is, you know, Israel down tools, hundreds of your citizens will still be hostages. I don't know any nation that would accept that. I'm sorry, I simply do not. And so it seems a little bit naive when you think about it in the context of international relations. If I can detach myself from human emotion and look at this from space, do I think maybe that is ultimately going to save more human lives? lives okay but this is the real world and there is not really any nation that's going to accept a hundred literally hundreds of hostages taken pulled across the border and being told down tools down tools guys we're going to figure this out it's not going to fucking happen and i think it shows a certain naivety by a lot of the mps who signed it particularly the government ones i through this particularly complex situation intense situation and not complex because it's It's like, is the loss of human life good or bad? I don't know. Of course it's fucking bad. But we are talking about trying to resolve a situation, and we don't do that with magical thinking. We do not do that with magical thinking. Full stop. stop

Carter 38:02

stop well so i can but i see

Carter 38:06

see the like i see this kind of all the other hand of this cory saying

Carter 38:15

why would why would be calling for peace be a bad thing right we should be calling for peace at all times

Corey 38:20

times there's always a peaceful solution point

Corey 38:22

point two i bet right oh

Carter 38:24

oh well and and i mean you're cherry picking your examples

Zain 38:27

no no for those listening no

Carter 38:28

no but i i'm saying saying um

Carter 38:32

are you sure i'll check actually i don't yeah you know i see

Carter 38:41

i mean i i just think i

Carter 38:44

i understand the there's

Carter 38:46

there's a group of people that are holier than thou people who believe that that all war and all conflict like this is bad i i think of course it's bad but it's going to happen and and sometimes war is required and sometimes war is even necessary and i think that sometimes we just you know there are good people who want to to believe that war shouldn't exist i agree with you cory i think that there's a this

Carter 39:11

this is a moment when a nation state is required to act and they must act in order to um not necessarily avenge their citizens but to protect this type of action from happening again and certainly i think that's where the state not

Corey 39:28

not even saying happen again literally happening right now we are in this moment there are hundreds of hostages they're they're being released two at a fucking time at this particular moment every week like at this rate this will not be resolved for many years so you know like we're not even like there

Corey 39:47

there is kind of a growing kind of opinion that this is retaliatory and certainly i think that there is A lot of very strong feelings that can lead into that space. But we are still in this moment. This particular crisis is still going on for the state of Israel. That is what I think I need to underline. I

Carter 40:05

I want to return to one of the things I said very early in this discussion, and that is that there are rules to war and the rules to war that were ignored by Hamas. And my point early, and I will return to this, is I do think that Israel is

Carter 40:22

is bound by the rules of war by virtue of the fact that they are a nation state. And I hope that that will assist

Carter 40:30

assist the outcomes because I don't want needless bloodshed, but some bloodshed over

Carter 40:38

over the course of history has been shown to be

Corey 40:40

be almost clear. super fucking clear this is not a blank check to break the rules of war this is not saying deaths of civilians i want to make sure that we have those i'm

Corey 40:49

i'm saying i want to make

Carter 40:50

make sure that we have those caveats yeah but i'm

Corey 40:51

i'm saying the idea that they are not going to go to war or they will stop their war at this particular moment that's not like this is the naivety of the ask like the ask needed to be we will not accept needless we will not accept civilian deaths even i could have have accepted right this needs to be targeted even impossible of course

Corey 41:10

course it's not even gonna happen

Corey 41:11

but at least that is sort of acknowledging that there is still going to be some sort of military action by the state of israel hundreds of hostages still happening cory

Zain 41:22

talk to me about this um trudeau political

Zain 41:29

like a big one or like or like is this like totally like i I guess the question is, if you are classifying your own 23 or so MPs as being not necessarily in it with the real politic sort of thing, right, not necessarily understanding the stakes, for a lot of them, it's clearly personal. And I'm just basing that on like the very simplistic last name check, right, of the fact that many of these folks are Muslim, right? So there's that element, not to say that that's their only identity, but it's personal, okay?

Zain 41:57

From his perspective, how does he need to respond to this? Like, what does the response look like? So this is a headache. These people will keep talking, right? They're doing interviews with PMP. Many kind of have, like, the moral high ground by saying we're the ones calling for peace, even though I appreciate your points on, like, the international relations and, like, the historical context. How does Trudeau respond to this? And more specifically, if you were advising the prime minister, I'm going to ask this to both of you, how would you suggest he respond to this?

Corey 42:32

well so a couple of weeks ago i said that this was going to be a harder issue for the ndp and i didn't really need to think about it very much but the challenge is greater for a prime minister in this situation simply by you know because he's got levers of power and the conversation in the governing caucus sort of matters like it's not theoretical it's not academic it's what canada's position is in the world but

Corey 42:56

but additional to that because the liberals were so full-throated in their support now the prime minister has made more

Corey 43:04

more measured comments since then it would be interesting to talk about some of them some you know the prime minister was one of the first to sort of talk about the

Corey 43:12

the hospital explosion being a terrible thing and one of the last of the western leaders to say looks

Corey 43:18

looks like it was an errant Hamas rocket right um but

Corey 43:23

it's it's tough when you have gone out so far on a ledge you've walked so far into the field with your team behind you to turn around and realize not

Corey 43:33

not all of your team is behind you and uh here you are now and so that creates a tension that is if you want to talk about in politics exploitable by the conservatives that creates international confusion if you want to talk about it in terms of statecraft how firm is canada's position on this where does canada really stand and that's ultimately a much worse position to be in than the position of the ndp even with the ontario ndp conversation we

Zain 44:00

we just had 40

Corey 44:03

yeah simply because the ontario ndp the federal ndp any ndp sort

Corey 44:07

sort of knows there's that tension and their statements have reflected that right they have been much It's much more context heavy with we condemn moment A, we understand it's in the context of situation B, right? And so the liberals don't have that cover. They have gone out so far. And now that

Corey 44:26

that is being tested. And it looks like it's

Corey 44:29

it's kind of failing the test. You know, it doesn't have the monolithic support that the prime minister's very strong statements would have suggested. Carter, what would you suggest he

Zain 44:39

Should he censure these people? I feel like that's a tool that's available to him. He should probably censure his own MPs. I'm just a joke. Thanks for laughing. Carter, what would you suggest? If you were advising the prime minister, what

Zain 44:52

what would your strategy be on dealing with this crisis?

Zain 44:56

Amid, I guess, everything else he's dealing with as context. context.

Carter 45:00

Yeah, I mean, I think that this is, I think we'd be remiss not to recognize that this is in a much broader context where his personal polling is very weak, and he appears to be a very weak leader. You know, he appears to be a weak leader, period, end of sentence, right? And we can come around to a number of different ways of looking at that. His weakness is one of the reasons that we are finding ourselves in this position. Therefore, I would probably advise that this prime minister say um there is a time for peace and there is a time for war and

Carter 45:35

and this is a time for war that

Corey 45:37

that i would go really off of where yeah okay i

Carter 45:40

i think that he i think you're saying he publicly say there's i would then follow

Corey 45:44

time for war and it's a time for it's just like that feels off off of like where canada is as a brand yeah i mean you

Carter 45:50

you have to go there because and i would follow

Corey 45:55

statement you can but i would i just want you to to know if he makes this statement that's what the reporters will be interjecting in this way during said statement yeah

Carter 46:04

well he's gonna be it's like and he needs to be able to follow up with we will be the first in line to bring the canadian peacekeeping mission uh to israel and to and to the to the west bank or to uh the gaza strip but right now israel

Carter 46:20

israel has a responsibility to protect its citizenry. They have a responsibility to bring back these hostages. We, the people of Canada, understand that that is the responsibility of a nation state. And we stand behind that. We will be watching to ensure that the rules of war are followed and that humanitarian aid, when able, is delivered, We'll be first upon the lines to do that, as we will be the first ones there to keep the peace. But this is not a time for peace. Corey,

Zain 46:58

what would you suggest here? You're like having some reactions in regards to what I suspect is Trudeau's Mussolini moment that Carter wants him to take.

Corey 47:12

Yeah, I don't think

Carter 47:14

think he could— No, come on.

Corey 47:16

don't think he's got the leadership skills to pull it off? I hear you. I don't think he can do the

Corey 47:21

the War Measures Act thing his dad did. Like, I just simply don't think it's the same liberal party. I don't think he's the same Trudeau.

Carter 47:27

mean, I don't think that's a War Measures Act. They're

Carter 47:30

act. They're going to do what they're going to do. I

Corey 47:30

I mean, it's literally called the War Measures Act, and you literally said now is a time for war. So, I mean— Well,

Carter 47:35

Well, we're not going to war. I'm not saying that we should be at war. Sounds like something a

Corey 47:38

a pansy would say.

Carter 47:39

say. Saying that Israel's

Zain 47:40

Israel's going to war. It's time for war, but not for us. It's a really—like,

Corey 47:43

really—like, sentence one really is undercut by sentence two. It's like a Phil Oakes song. Yeah. the draft dodger rag you're singing you know who's gonna have my

Zain 47:52

just now from a typical american now's the time you guys go to war thank you is

Zain 47:58

is that is that the statement

Carter 47:59

statement that is exactly what it is that

Carter 48:01

is exactly no israel's gonna go to war guys i don't know if you know this but israel is going to invade the gaza that's

Carter 48:08

that's going to happen what

Carter 48:09

what do you want from me i

Corey 48:10

i yes okay well tell me i'm wrong i think um when i when i contemplate what the prime minister is likely going to have to do. It's a bundle of both very strong actions in support of Israel statements. I think along the lines of what Joe Biden said, which is, you know, we are there for Israel. We caution Israel not to let, you

Corey 48:34

you know, Joe Biden put it so well, and I'm going to paraphrase it very poorly, but like we caution Israel not to let kind of like grief and rage wage overtake you know the moment um but uh i think it's also going to have to be bundled with an awful lot of humanitarian actions frankly i'd

Corey 48:52

i'd be very curious to see where canada is on accepting refugees from gaza yeah

Corey 48:58

i would love to see what kind of actual money we're putting into really significant uh humanitarian aid there is a lot of questions as to who's going to search things maybe there's a role for canada to stay up stand up and say you know what we will because it's It's really important they'd get to people. I don't know. Maybe that's insane because that draws us so deeply into a conflict. The point is we

Corey 49:18

we could use a little bit more than words if we actually care about the humanitarian outcomes. Corey,

Zain 49:22

Corey, would you finish this particular question off for me? Would

Zain 49:26

Would you publicly say anything about these MPs or would you not even validate their statement or the letter that they've signed? Is this a you deal with it in caucus moment or is this a deal with it publicly? What would you do?

Corey 49:38

to have to say something. You do have to say something. Look, I would say something like, well, if somebody asks you directly, you say, listen, one of the things about the Liberal Party is we've always enjoyed and allowed and been strengthened by a diversity of opinions. And I certainly understand these MPs believe strongly in the cause of peace, and we do too. But now is not the time for anybody to be questioning Canada's commitment to Israel and questioning Canada's commitment to supporting Israel, as it has so many citizens currently being held hostage in Gaza. And a situation has not yet unfolded. A situation is on us right now. As Prime Minister, I simply will not back down from that particular statement. statement um it's the position of the liberal party it's the position of this government um that uh that we will support israel like that that's what he's going to end up saying something to that effect yeah

Carter 50:30

he should be saying it's stronger ah

Carter 50:33

he has to he has a strength problem he needs to be strong you

Corey 50:36

you know the thing is though steven like people with strength problems rarely look strong by going overboard right by i don't

Carter 50:43

don't think it's overboard i think it's recognizing that Israel's going to go to war, period.

Corey 50:48

Now is the time for

Carter 50:48

for war. It's a recognition of the reality of the situation. Carter, I'm

Zain 50:54

Pierre Palliev, he's got words to say in his first public comments on Alberta's proposal to withdraw from the CPP. He said that Albertans are seeking to, quote, get some of their money back, but I encourage Albertans to stay in the CPP.

Zain 51:08

If you're Danielle Smith, is this fine? You never need Pierre Palliev's voice. Is this fabulous? In fact, this is great. We're going to run against Pierre Palliev. Is this frustrating to your APP ambitions, or is this downright fucked? Give it to me, Carter. What is it?

Carter 51:24

I think it's fucked. I think that Danielle's idea is fucked, and this is, you know, when you can't even win over Pierre Polyev on lunatic ideas, I mean, what do you have left? left. Pierre Polyev should be a natural ally for her, and he's not.

Carter 51:47

You know, I mean, I was in a room, you and I were in a room today with all those public affairs professionals, half of whom were from outside of Alberta, and there's not a lot of love for us in the room. We look a little selfish. We look a little dickish. And I think, you know, last week we talked about how every Every once in a while, Pierre Polyev has a tendency to slide back to Dick. And I think he was trying to avoid it. He sees that, you know, the Dick position is already occupied by Danielle Smith.

Zain 52:17

Quotable quotes by Stephen Carter. I came out wrong. Corey,

Zain 52:22

the division today on the CPP is entirely the result of, bring it on, bring it on, one, two, three, Justin Trudeau attacking the Alberta economy. We would not be having this CPP debate if I were prime minister because Alberta would would be free from carbon taxes, unconstitutional anti-energy laws, and other unfair wealth transfers. For Daniel Smith, Corey, is it fine, fabulous, frustrating, or fucked that Pierre Polyev supports the CPP?

Corey 52:45

would say that it was a flawless execution by Pierre Polyev of the Corey Hogan strategy on the last podcast, where basically I said exactly this is what should be said.

Corey 52:57

Maybe not quite flawless, because my one criticism of it is he did lend credence to the the idea that this would save Alberta money, you know, this notion, oh, clearly Alberta's trying to get more money because Trudeau's had his hand in Alberta's pocket for so long, this wouldn't happen under me, blah, blah, blah. Not ideal for the Alberta Premier that the, you know, the more popular leader of the federal conservatives would take this particular position. Shouldn't surprise her. So I have to imagine that, you know, she will, she will roll with that punch. It would would have been unreal to me if Pierre Polyev had come out in favor of an Alberta pension plan. Like, what do you get there? There's nothing to gain, everything to lose with that particular position. It's not even popular in Alberta, lest we forget. So, why would Pierre Polyev want to support it?

Corey 53:48

it has to be costed in, has to be costed.

Zain 53:51

costed. Corey, I'm going to stick with you. So, I'm going to keep it on the Alberta pension plan. Jim Denning, blast from the past. He's the chairman of this- Yeah, former

Corey 53:58

former treasurer of Alberta, which was what we used to call our finance minister. Back

Corey 54:02

Back when we had style, back when men wore hats.

Zain 54:05

Back when men were men, Corey, they knew what they were doing. You could run the government, okay? They were doing things that

Zain 54:12

that Jim Denning did. Well, Corey, he's back. And he says he was surprised. Now, he's the chairperson of this panel, this three-person panel. He said he was surprised by the report saying that Alberta is entitled to 53% or $334 billion. I mean, I would be, because it's kind of nonsense. But I was gobsmacked by the big number and found it difficult to swallow. And then I dug deeper into it. And then he concludes later in the article that it's totally legit. He did his own research. Well, he did the research that was provided to him in the report, later on in the report. And he concludes, totally OK. Totally the right number for us. I'm paraphrasing. Corey, how much of this is, this is a fun one, I guess. But continuing on the theme of a pain or a nuisance to Danielle Smith, fine, fabulous, frustrating, or fuck to have the chairperson of your own sort of panel, A, choose not to kind of take a side, so to speak, to kind of be a convener or a referee, not a salesperson, and B, also be surprised by how big the ask is of Alberta to rob the CPP and bring it back home.

Corey 55:08

pretty fine spun position here, you know, clearly trying to not undercut anything he may have said in the past about this particular idea. Lest we forget, Jim Dinning was treasurer when the federal government was convening the provinces to try to figure out how to save the Canada pension plan, which they did. So good work, Jim, only to kind of years later, come back and try to kill it, I guess. But, you know, also, I think what he's trying to do is that very classic rhetorical technique of making yourself a proxy for the audience, right? Like, he knows the instant reaction to this has been, this is absurd. So, I mean, this is 101 stuff in speechcraft. So you say, I too thought this was absurd. But friends, folks, let

Zain 55:54

let me tell you,

Corey 55:55

you, when I dug into it, despite

Corey 55:57

despite being gobsmacked, turns out there's something to this. You know, there's that one neat trick that lets us take all of the money from the federal government. And that

Corey 56:06

that is pretty conventional communications. And so while a lot of people are making fun of it here, I think that's an old politician trick, right? And it's a way that you are going to get a few people to look at it twice and say, yeah, I mean, my instant reaction is it's absurd. I guess that was Jim Dennings too, until he looked into it. And Jim Dennings says it's not absurd. So, look,

Corey 56:28

this thing is in such a hole. Of course, people are going to come out and kind of deride Jim Dinning's comments in this way.

Corey 56:36

this is the kind of thing you do to start trying to change people's minds and start building opinions about this. and um until somebody else puts kind of the counter narrative out there until say cppib puts out numbers the federal government puts out a stronger more concrete like this is what we expect it will be they've kind of got the field to themselves it's it's jim dinning and the alberta government versus a very nuanced position by trevor

Zain 57:01

trevor carter i'm frustrated because cory took the point i wanted to make because i thought neither of you would make it i was going to defend jim at the end of this but carter your perspective fine fabulous frustrating or fuck Daniel Smith, this particular quote by Jim Denning, what do you take? Are you with Corey on this or you see this differently?

Carter 57:17

No, I agree with Corey. I mean, I think that this is essentially

Carter 57:21

essentially the do your own research argument from whatever conspiracy you want to bring forward. I mean, this is how that whole narrative gets established, right? I didn't believe it either but you know do your i did my research and here's where i think you should you know you'll note that the great conspiracy theorists never tell you where to go and do your own research because they know that you won't go do your research right they they know that you're going to take as a the proxy of well i was concerned and i did my own research and this is why we wind up with you know the

Carter 58:01

the citizens of the freemasons or the free citizens on the land land or whatever the hell they are you know like people believe

Carter 58:09

believe what they want to believe and and i'll tell you something if they want to believe that they're going to be further ahead by doing this then they're going to believe that and and it's going to take a lot to to convince them otherwise that they're not going to be further ahead um this was a really good rhetorical device from jim denning his little aw shucks things tend to work um i'm disappointed i i think he's fucked i think he's burning

Carter 58:36

burning his reputation to the ground um but i also thought that was steve allen and uh you know well i guess there's a name we haven't heard since he did you know since he

Zain 58:45

burned his reputation to the ground no one asks us to do panels carter like we ask us to do political panels but no one asks us to sit on a panel with well

Zain 58:52

well literally doing no

Zain 58:54

no i think he means like like yeah carter no one no one lets us look show up on a conference oh it's

Zain 59:01

oh people don't like well i feel like

Corey 59:02

like that's guilt by association i was on the uh i was on the market access task what is that that i was on a panel you were also on the olympics

Corey 59:09

i was both those things fail yeah

Corey 59:11

yeah you were on two cory's the opposite who's the opposite of my might hey there

Corey 59:16

there seems to be a trans mountain pipeline i'm just saying is there a transfer i

Zain 59:20

mean do we i've

Zain 59:20

i've never seen it alberta or i've never i'm gonna have to do my own research when i heard there was a trans mountain pipeline i have to do i was like holy fuck that's not a real real thing

Corey 59:28

but then i dug i mean there's been one since the 50s but the deeper also

Zain 59:31

also seems to be built it's gobsmacked i'm gonna start using that technique

Corey 59:34

technique way more let's

Zain 59:36

let's move on to our final segment our fine fabulous or fucked is done with the frustrating which you guys picked more often than not carter our over under our lightning round we do it for you let's start here carter

Zain 59:48

give me okay your one sentence strategy for

Zain 59:52

for the cppib's counter offensive counteroffensive, what

Zain 59:56

what should it be? Should they be focusing? Let me throw a few things on the table. In Alberta, should we be focusing the counteroffensive to the rest of the country? Depending on your answers, I actually want to do an episode about this to let's run the CPPIB campaign.

Zain 1:00:10

What should they be doing right now in the world where Notley and Polyev and Trudeau are aligned against the APP, where Jim Dinning is chairing this panel, where Danielle Smith and the The provincial government are pushing advertising that says it's your choice. What should the CPPI be doing? Top line, Carter.

Carter 1:00:31

They should be recognizing that this is almost all driven by what people want, right? People's individual motivations. So don't try and defeat this on things like it's not true, it's not right, it's not, you know, you're not getting the full story. If you try and defeat it that way, then I think that you'll lose. This needs to be defeated on what's in your individual best interest. What is the best possible outcome for you as a voter? I have said time and again, voters are selfish. You cannot win an argument with the voter by telling them how their sacrifice is well-intentioned or, you know, that this is in the best interest of the country as a whole. they

Carter 1:01:17

they don't give a shit they are only interested in themselves uh and if you don't construct arguments with that understanding then you're going to lose and that would be the argument that i would bring forward is is here's how this is in your best interest do not get caught up in how is this in the country's best interest it's just it's a fool's errand boy

Zain 1:01:39

boy that was one run-on sentence by stephen carter your sentence your strategy your headline it was it was it was a That was a fine sentence, Carter. CPPIB. Great sentence. Corey, and before you answer, Will Chamberlain, Neville Chamberlain,

Zain 1:01:53

related. You are not. You are not. Oh, okay. I wanted to do that in a very Maury way. You know, like Corey said. You are not the father. Not related. Yeah.

Zain 1:02:00

Yeah, go ahead, Corey, please.

Corey 1:02:03

Well, at the risk of it being trite, it's a marathon, not a sprint. You don't need to do absolutely everything right now. There were calls for people. I saw Kelly Criderman call him, for example, suggesting where cppib's numbers you don't need to give it to them right now you can wait you can watch unless you're losing control of the narrative you can crush people later you certainly don't want to put out all your best arguments now only to have them receded to the past and um and you know not have the currency you need them to have before a moment where either a decision will be made whether this thing goes to referendum or be the referendum but keep in mind with a marathon You don't also just stand at the starting line. So you've got to make sure you're not doing absolutely nothing. I know there's been commentary on both sides as to the CPPIB's letter and analysis of whether the

Corey 1:02:53

the consultation mechanism was in any way valid consultation. Spoiler alert, it for sure fails on every single metric. That's not a dispute in my mind. I

Corey 1:03:03

don't think that was bad at all. I think that the idea that they get on the record on a couple of things is important. I think they need to be seeding those doubts. I think they need to be undercutting the validity of a very long process that the government is spooling out here. I think they need to advertise. They were, I assume they still are. I haven't seen one in a while, but I've seen lots of CPPIB advertising in the past couple of years here. I think that's the right approach. And I also think you've got to be watching very carefully, learning, gathering data, really getting into the metrics. To Carter's point, this is going to be an individual decision times 4.5 million, not a group decision. So, what is moving people in demographic A? What is moving people in demographic B? Demographic C is never with you? Fuck them. Just make sure they're not very motivated. Demographic E, demographic F, so on and so forth. Really getting into the details in terms of what's going to be productive. productive also know who your champions are and how you can arm them with messages that'll move the middle and you certainly you've got to keep kind of that all in context and all in mind as you move forward there but ultimately it comes back to this notion it's a marathon not a sprint the benefit you have if you're cppib governments

Corey 1:04:17

governments are not built for marathons governments

Corey 1:04:20

are built You are built for sprints. You are an

Corey 1:04:24

an institution. You are a long-serving, long-living institution. You are built for marathons, and you have a structural advantage as long as you don't fuck it the ever-loving up.

Carter 1:04:37

well and to that end can i just add one thing and that is one of the things i think we learned with the olympics is don't replace good messaging with bad messaging right so if

Carter 1:04:47

if you're going to be patient then be patient but don't you

Carter 1:04:51

you know try and do

Carter 1:04:52

do messaging on the fly that doesn't work because some of that messaging that you do on the fly will haunt you um all

Carter 1:05:01

all the way through the project so make sure your messaging is right before

Carter 1:05:06

before you go out with carter

Zain 1:05:07

carter overrated underrated in your mind i just mentioned this earlier pauliev trudeau notley all on the same team against

Zain 1:05:14

against the app or a potential app overrated underrated in your mind

Carter 1:05:21

think overrated i think that this feels an awful lot like brexit to me you know brexit was i think brought forward like we'll just quickly squash this from the minority of people that want And there was a few people who got on board in part just to kind of fuck with the government of the day. And they wound up winning it. And it was like the dog who caught the car. They didn't know what to do with it. And I fear that that could be the same type of outcome here is that, you

Carter 1:05:51

that all of these people who are aligned against this venture

Carter 1:05:57

venture could could start to think, well, you know, it's not that big a deal. we're all like we all agree without recognizing that it's the it's

Carter 1:06:07

it's the great unwashed that are given the votes right like the those are the people who are given the votes and and they vote for their own individual reasons not uh

Carter 1:06:19

common sense or facts in in way too many cases

Zain 1:06:26

don't know why would you know why would you know cory

Carter 1:06:30

you done Corey hang on are we we're

Zain 1:06:34

we're over now this is where you capped out Corey hasn't why would he why would he even want to answer the question let's just see if Corey remembers the question I think we should start there

Carter 1:06:43

oh no I don't think I

Carter 1:06:44

I don't think I mean it's

Corey 1:06:46

it's everything Stephen said has a kernel of truth in it but is also as always greatly overstated

Corey 1:06:52

overstated this is an evergreen

Corey 1:06:53

evergreen statement which probably

Corey 1:06:55

just needs a little bit more nuance a little bit more context context in order for it to be entirely correct. So I'm, as always, happy to kind of just modify Stephen Carter's answer up from a C- to an A.

Zain 1:07:05

Oh, thank you, Corey. That's very insightful. Hey, Corey, I'm going to start with you on this final question. Jagmeet Singh wants to meet with Justin Trudeau to discuss calls for the Israel-Hamas ceasefire. He's responding to that letter that we spent some time discussing. If you were Jagmeet Singh, would

Zain 1:07:20

would you threaten the supply and confidence agreement on this particular file,

Zain 1:07:24

Corey? Would you use your leverage on this particular

Zain 1:07:29

just curious about your thinking very quickly. Carter, same question to you as we wrap up.

Corey 1:07:36

that is tough. I would need

Zain 1:07:38

need to... Well, explain to me your conflict. You know, this is... Explain to me what you're thinking. Yeah.

Corey 1:07:42

Well, I simply don't know how that's going. Look, if you end supply and confidence on this particular matter, and if, and listen, it's not the same as calling an election, but say you end up there too. if an election happens on this because all of a sudden everything in parliament's totally up in the air i just don't know how it breaks for people i mean it's yeah

Corey 1:08:02

it's not an issue that we have historically resolved elections on

Corey 1:08:06

international affairs period and the issue of the two-state solution israel hamas peace specifically so i just don't know i mean it's very risky to go in there and take that particular position and you know every instinct in my body says you don't do that that could really backfire in ways that you can't even contemplate right now that

Corey 1:08:28

do think that there is if you want to kind of separate all of this out and i'm not making i'm not making moral judgments i'm not even making tactical judgments here but i'm saying that there is a bit of a money ball approach i think that's available if every other party is going to be so full-throated in in one direction and you take a different position right let's just say for for example, 30% of Canadians agree with Jagmeet Singh's position on that.

Corey 1:08:55

Well, that's a lot more popular than the NDP

Corey 1:08:57

is right now. Depending on which poll you're reading. Well, this is my point.

Corey 1:09:00

So again, I think ultimately it's a little bit too risky. It's a little bit too novel.

Zain 1:09:04

That the election becomes about that, that you win those supporters. Well,

Corey 1:09:08

is the election going to be about that or is that just going to be the trigger and it becomes a different thing?

Corey 1:09:12

But there is an interesting kind of, of uh like i said money ball approach here every

Corey 1:09:17

every people are building teams maybe in a way that's not reflective of carter

Zain 1:09:21

carter would you threaten the supply and confidence agreement if you're on this particular file if you if and when you get your meeting with with trudeau

Carter 1:09:31

um i don't believe that you can fight elections on certain topics and i would suggest that this is uh a topic that you shouldn't be fighting an election over i mean um again if we return to tonight's thesis brought to you by Stephen Carter is that the voters are selfish. And if we live there, then we need to recognize that it's really hard to predict how people will respond to an international situation. It's not necessarily going to be easy or predictable. And so you're

Carter 1:10:08

you're already in a shitty spot in the polls anyways. Anyways, I just think this would be a tragic time to be stretching one's wings.

Zain 1:10:16

wings. A tragic time to be stretching one's wings, Flair Airlines. That's a wrap on episode 1262 of The Strategist. My name is Zane Velgey. With me, as always, Corey Hogan, Stephen Carter, and we'll see you next time.

Corey 1:10:33

Zane, I have a confession to make. I actually didn't remember the question when I gave that answer that I said I didn't know. No fucking kidding. Really? I

Zain 1:10:42

I think I covered it up pretty well. I don't think anybody knew. I think because most people know you as a prick, they'll be like, oh, yeah, Corey was just tapped out. He didn't like the question line. He was zoned out. This was definitely not someone who wasn't paying attention.

Corey 1:10:56

The value of a brand. Let

Carter 1:10:59

Let me tell you something.

Carter 1:11:00

I often don't know what the question is, but that does not stop me from answering.

Transcript