Transcript
Zain
0:02
Oh shit, Carter. We're back. We're back. And you've actually, you've embraced this. You've embraced this whole. The metaphor is more
Zain
0:09
more real for you. Yeah. You're now, you're now joining us remotely. Yeah.
Carter
0:11
Yeah. Because, uh, I'm actually. You sound like shit. I'm in bed.
Carter
0:15
Um, it's, it's too late for me to stay up. Carter, you,
Corey
0:20
you, you do not need
Zain
0:22
need your camera on. Yeah, this is, this is too much.
Zain
0:24
much. Hey, hey, listen, we have, we have more destinations to go on this adventure. We've been going from Alberta, Saskatchewan to Manitoba. Can we go straight to Ottawa? I think that's where we're headed, Corey. And let's start here as we talk about Ottawa. I want to talk about Justin Trudeau.
Zain
0:41
The apology for the speaker Nazi comments. The speaker is now gone. Yeah. Oh, that happened. That happened. Speaker is gone. Took him five days. He's out. Justin Trudeau apologized, Corey, on
Zain
0:53
on behalf of all of Parliament. moment. He didn't apologize for
Zain
0:58
for himself. He didn't apologize for the Speaker. He didn't apologize for his party. Corey, the strategy here, do you see it? Is it enough, this apology? Do you think he'll get through it? Or do you feel like he's extending
Zain
1:09
extending the news cycle, dragging in heels to the inevitable, which is something we have said about the Liberals increasingly more so in the last number of months. But is he just dragging his heels to the inevitable? Or is this the right move, the right strategy? Do you see it? And was it a good good one well
Corey
1:24
well i think when you apologize as a general rule you you over apologize you don't try to find the line of exactly where apology is because the risk then becomes people insist you do it again and do it again and again until you get it right which is
Zain
1:38
encouraged of him yes and
Corey
1:39
and the intervening time usually requires the apology to go even further so you're not trying to make good and get the apology that you needed yesterday you're trying to get the apology you needed a week from now which is probably even bigger because it includes the fact that you You didn't get the apology right the first time. So I think it was a mistake not to just say, I am sorry. I am sorry on behalf of this country. I am sorry on behalf of this parliament. I am sorry myself, you know, and actually sort of go down the list of the groups for which you're apologizing and say, this was just unacceptable on every level. And it was a failing, you know, you don't want to hedge this. So you don't want to do the thing where it's like, yeah, I mean, it was, we're in the situation because the speaker put you wouldn't want to do any of that you just say like it there's no excuse for glorifying and putting accolades on people who fought for adolf hitler regardless of the circumstances full stop you know that's what's expected of you that's what's required of you i do want to back up a few days though and say i knew you were going to do this here we go do it whole situation makes me feel fucking crazy like the like just crazy because and we talked about at this last part, we don't need to go over this, you know, song and verse again, but
Carter
2:55
They all did. Every single one of them there, right?
Corey
2:58
right? Except for those doing the Velji clap, right?
Zain
3:01
by the way, more people need to embrace. I was in question period the other day, very few Velji claps, very real claps, no Velji clap. These
Corey
3:09
These people know how to sit on their hands if they don't want to clap. It's true. The notion that like, well, the speaker told them to, so they had to. Yeah. Let's run the tape on about a thousand different situations where people didn't follow that protocol tell the speaker to get fucked yeah yeah seriously like basically literally this week by the way and uh and
Corey
3:26
and you know like there's some basic math that people could have done there's some basic history that people should have known there is even if you want to say it's not basic history it's complicated you've got people who are literally experts in ukrainian history sitting there on your front bench christian freeland yeah right like
Corey
3:43
like the The idea that we're supposed to believe that this nobody could have known and this is all on the speaker and that they get to put all the trash out with the speaker makes me crazy. It also makes me crazy that Pierre Poliev, who also clapped, can then turn around and say, shame on you, Justin Trudeau. How did you let this? How do you let this happen, Pierre? How did any of you let this happen?
Corey
4:06
That's my question. carter
Zain
4:07
carter is it said nazi or nazi um because peter mansbridge has a real choice uh that he's made and it's it's nazi and
Zain
4:16
he says it with a lot of sauce on his on his podcast i
Carter
4:19
i don't listen to his podcast i think it's second rate nazi um nazi
Zain
4:26
that's how he says it that's how he says it he's got a good microphone oh he's a great microphone better voice uh weird pronunciation Carter,
Zain
4:35
question for you. By the way, every time we talk about Nazis, I should say my name is an anagram for one. I just want to put that on
Carter
4:42
on the record. You're
Carter
4:43
It's good. We're all thinking about it. It
Zain
4:45
It is true. Carter, your take on this from from the prime minister's perspective, should he have over apologized, like Corey says, or is picking this like very like carved
Zain
4:58
carved out specific particular lane of his apology the right strategy or do you see it? Well,
Carter
5:04
Well, I understand what the strategy is. I mean, what he's basically trying to get across is he didn't pick this speaker. He's not individually responsible for this situation.
Carter
5:13
You know, all of a sudden it became the liberal speaker as though, you know, there is no involvement. I mean, Pierre, Pierre Polyev can be seen dragging the speaker to the speaker's chair because that's the tradition. Well, you
Carter
5:26
you know, I mean, like, they were all involved in this. Corey's made that point before. We've made that point before. But what is it going to cost you at this stage? Right? This is a terrible situation. You know, on behalf, unreservedly on behalf of the entire House of Commons, this is a terrible situation that should never have occurred. Like, what's the cost?
Carter
5:48
Go over apologize, because it doesn't cost you anything. thing. Instead, Justin Trudeau is trying to... Is that true? Do
Zain
5:54
Do you guys actually both believe that? Do you both believe it actually doesn't cost him anything, an on-the-record video clip of him apologizing for what happened? Can I examine that for a second? Carter, you say no. Corey, do you agree? You must. I
Corey
6:08
I do agree. I think in many ways,
Corey
6:12
there's probably a feeling like, well, this is bullshit. Why should the prime minister have to wear it? It was all of us. From
Zain
6:18
From a pure parliamentary procedure
Corey
6:19
procedure perspective. Well, that's why he said parliament, because it was, it was also, it was everything Stephen said, but it was also a way to say, everybody in this room clapped. You guys all fucking clapped,
Corey
6:29
clapped, yeah. This was the subtext of what, of what the prime minister's remarks were here.
Corey
6:33
Well, that's, what are you trying to do? Like, what is your actual goal here? And if your goal
Zain
6:37
goal is to- Trying to be Corey Hogan on a podcast, which is, seriously though. You're trying to be right. Yeah,
Corey
6:42
You should be thinking about what's the best politically, and what puts this to bed. And that would have been a full-throated apology that nobody, no reasonable person could poke holes in. Somebody's going to poke holes in it. But you just, you go all out, you say, I'm sorry. I am sorry. I
Corey
6:58
personally am sorry. In my role as the leader of the largest faction in parliament, I am sorry on behalf of parliament. In my role as prime minister of this country, I am sorry on behalf of this country. As my role as leader of the liberals, I am sorry on behalf of the liberals. There is no excuse for this. And we unreservedly apologize to everybody for this very embarrassing state of affairs. I stood. You
Carter
7:23
all stood. You know, this is an apology for all of us. It was a significant mistake.
Carter
7:31
You know, it's not good enough just to simply say it will not happen again. We must learn from it. And, you
Carter
7:39
you know, that begins the process of leaving it behind. Because once you've unreservedly apologized, it's really hard to go after someone who's unreservedly apologized. The
Carter
7:52
The reserves are what enables people to continue to go after you.
Zain
7:57
Totally agree. Well, tell me where the story goes from here, Carter. We have a speaker election happening on Tuesday. I want to talk about that in a second. Does a speaker election just move us along? Or do you feel like Pierre Polyev and the Conservatives asking for more is where this goes? And is it a good strategy for Pierre and the Conservatives to say, you know what, he's left something on the table and we're going to go get it and spend time doing that? Listen,
Carter
8:19
Listen, I think that it's terrible. But, you know, you're asking me if it's good political strategy.
Carter
8:26
Yeah, it's probably good political strategy, because we don't seem to have the capacity to,
Carter
8:31
to, you know, kind of really
Carter
8:33
really get to the bottom of what actually happened.
Carter
8:36
And this, this is the liberals Achilles heel.
Carter
8:41
Well, you know, that's not really true. Well, that's not really the right story. story I want to tell if you if you understood the more full and more complete story you wouldn't be thinking this way well that's explaining and what happens when we're explaining we're losing so that's why the liberals continue to struggle with this type of situation is because they continue to try and explain away the actions that are inexplicable and this is one of those situations where if they just learn
Carter
9:09
learn to get out in front of something just learn to get in front of something then they're probably going to be much much better off cory
Corey
9:18
i do think that the there's a domestic challenge and then there's an international challenge is where i'm trying to get on the table domestically i think with the voters that pierre pauliev needs to be prime minister this is going to be a very limited currency because there is the obvious rejoinder well
Corey
9:35
well you clap too man right and so i just using that region well you know what because when you put put reservations on it the apology looks less sincere but if you're still using it in three weeks people are going to say but you clapped too you
Corey
9:49
you clap too so i just don't know that it's going to move that median voter he needs very much i think within certain subcultures in canada it will be used every time the liberals uh say something about somebody being an extremist they'll throw back in their face and say you applauded for literal nazi right so look forward to that being part of our discourse for fucking ever, I
Corey
10:10
I look forward to that.
Corey
10:13
But I just don't know if that's something that Pierre Polyev can actively militarize. I mean, I guess he could say that too, but it just seems like it's a little bit tougher because he too applauded.
Corey
10:23
I'm also quite concerned that this is now something that we're going to see thrown at us and around us and our allies are going to see thrown at us or at them by Russia and by by Russian disinformation and by Russian allies. And I think we can look forward to seeing that occurring for quite some time too. And in many ways, that almost became guaranteed when the Speaker resigned. So, I
Corey
10:48
I still wish we'd all sort of taken a beat on this particular one here and just said like, this is horribly mortifying. But, you know, I don't know. This is such a bloody mess. I think we can all appreciate that now. And I don't
Corey
11:02
don't know. So it's going to ripple for a while, is my belief. But I just don't know it's something that Pierre Polyev can actively weaponize four weeks from now.
Zain
11:11
Carter, I want to talk about the Speaker in Ottawa, and I want to talk about the Speaker in Washington, D.C. Two fundamentally different jobs, same title, however. The new Speaker will be elected on Tuesday, that's what we suspect. Members will go into the House of Commons. Clinton's funny little rule about electing a speaker is you have to remove or withdraw yourself from the ballot by 6 p.m. tomorrow or else your name stays on the ballot to be speaker. Many folks have indicated they want to be speaker. Carter, talk to me broadly. I'm going to drop our current sort of thread on do you get the strategy and do you like it? What should the liberal strategy be in electing a speaker here? Is it any more complicated than let's find a good liberal who wants to be speaker? Or talk to me about any nuance you'd have, any thoughts you'd have. Is there a strategy around this? And I'm also going to go around the horn to see what the conservative strategy, perhaps even more importantly or interestingly, should be around the speaker elections here. So liberals first, then conservatives. I
Carter
12:11
I mean, you want an excellent parliamentarian. You want someone who actually understands the rules. I mean, obviously, the speaker is very well supported by bureaucrats. There are people who specialize in this type of understanding of governance and understanding of the precedent, and those staff will help carry you through it. But you do want an excellent parliamentarian, one who understands the rules kind of intuitively, that they can step into the role. And that dictates a certain type of experience, a certain type of person that is committed to understanding and learning and staying on top of those rules. You know, Andrew Scheer was a good person who understood those rules. What's his name in Alberta here? Nate, Nathan, Nate.
Carter
12:58
What's his name? Who's the current
Carter
13:01
he's been great. He's doubled down.
Carter
13:04
He's completely thrown himself into learning and understanding all of the different nuances of being the speaker. speaker. He's taken it upon himself to explain that role to the general population, which is over and above what we've seen most speakers do.
Carter
13:21
That understanding, that ability to communicate what the role of the speaker would be very helpful, I think. I mean, Jesus, if, for example, we'd had someone who could communicate about the role of the speaker prior to this debacle happening, maybe Canadians wouldn't be up in arms and demanding some
Carter
13:38
some sort of penance out of Justin Trudeau because they'd understand that the Speaker is not chosen by Justin Trudeau, does not report to Justin Trudeau, and if Justin Trudeau tried to influence the office of the Speaker, the first person to lose their fucking mind would be Pierre Palliev. But because we didn't have that, we're now in this particular situation where we're going to get a new one.
Carter
14:01
But I'd just look for someone with experience, just someone with experience.
Zain
14:06
Corey, anything you'd add to your list of what you'd want as the Liberals by the end of Tuesday? with your new speaker?
Corey
14:13
Yeah. Well, I, you know, there's, there's not a lot of great history of partisan speakers in this country. What you want in a speaker is temperament, tradition, even handedness. And, uh, and that's probably as much as you need. You
Corey
14:28
You talked about the difference with the U S speaker, the U S speaker rarely actually presides over the house of representatives. He often will kind of farm that role off to somebody else. He'll be working the halls. he'll be doing his thing and uh you know kevin mccarthy doesn't spend a lot of time on the dais right but
Corey
14:46
but this canadian speaker the job really is about the job of being a facilitation a moderator of a debate the authority does not rest with the speaker the speaker doesn't even sit in caucus in the british parliamentary tradition historically the speaker would resign and
Corey
15:04
then like run run unopposed in their riding and then run unopposed forever right like they wouldn't actually know that yeah yeah i mean
Corey
15:10
things evolve over time yeah
Zain
15:11
yeah evolved sure that's really interesting though yeah
Corey
15:13
yeah but but the speaker is not is not like a big political player that the speaker's job is to articulate the house and in a minority government i think the speaker being savvy and politically adroit matters a little more but most of those big moments are sort of of defined by precedent anyhow, already, right? So, I think what the liberals should be looking for is just a good speaker, like somebody who can have that temperament and understand
Zain
15:41
understand that tradition and be even-handed. Can
Zain
15:44
Can I ask you guys about the liberal frame on this? I was wondering if either of you two would go here, and you haven't yet, so I'm just going to put it on the table. You've talked, Corey, and I'm going to butcher your phrasing, that liberals go for symbolism when they pick some big positions. We were talking about Governor General at that Yeah, we were. Right?
Zain
16:00
Right? Yeah. Like Mary Simon and conservatives might go for more pure
Zain
16:04
pure competency and unimpeachability from like a more classic meritocratic sense. Paraphrasing. Do
Zain
16:11
Do you think the liberals try for symbolism here? You know, let's have the first insert speaker. So,
Corey
16:18
would be pretty easy to first insert with speaker, because I think we've had only one non-white male speaker, and that was Jean Sauvé, who became governor general, in fact, later.
Corey
16:32
could be wrong about that, but I'm pretty certain
Corey
16:33
about that. And so it
Corey
16:35
it wouldn't take a lot to extend the diversity of the speaker ranks. And certainly, I think that you could make a strong case that it's overdue to have, you know, more diverse representation in the role of speaker. So I
Corey
16:49
I wouldn't be surprised. Is
Zain
16:50
Is there a political win for them here? I guess is the extension of that question. Is there a political win to say, you know what, Fergus, for example, who's put his name forward, who's known a lot in that caucus, many are like, why is he not a minister? Put his name forward, black man. Should we just head in that direction? Let's just all converge on that, because it's overdue from a, not a pure symbolism perspective, but from a broader sort of what this could mean. And this is what liberals do perspective, right?
Corey
17:21
it's a tricky one to answer, just because I also don't know that the role of speaker is one that Canadians pay a ton of attention to for
Corey
17:29
things like that. But it
Corey
17:31
it is part of a broader liberal commitment to diversity and supporting a diverse party and a diverse government. So, I certainly don't think it would be offside of the liberals. And I think that it, you know, it would be, in
Corey
17:45
in my opinion, super incremental in terms of people be like, yeah, the liberals, look at them go. They found like,
Corey
17:50
you know, they've brought a more 21st century inclusion to the role of speaker. I just don't think people think about the role of speaker like that, right? right?
Zain
17:59
But I'll make a headline for a couple of days, there will be some sort of visual element to it, there'll be a story around it. I guess, if you're the liberals, do you do lean into it even more given your current situation right now? Yeah,
Corey
18:11
Yeah, I mean, I think that for me, it's like how they are sometimes is how they are all the time. They do truly care about this. And they do truly care about bringing, you know, diversity and representation into government. So I strongly I strongly suspect that that will be part of the conversation. I just, I don't know if there's going to be a big net public political win.
Zain
18:32
Carter, any thoughts on that? I
Carter
18:33
I think it just, you know, I mean, it
Carter
18:35
it is kind of in their cultural DNA right now, but they're not going to get a victory out of it. And
Carter
18:41
would argue that Trudeau really needs to spend some quality time figuring
Carter
18:46
figuring out what his victories are going to be, because if he continues to have
Carter
18:51
have these moral victories instead of actual electoral victories, he's going to lose. You know, I'm not sure that balancing
Carter
18:59
balancing the cabinet and balancing the, you
Carter
19:02
you know, bringing equity forward is the magic sauce that's going to get him elected into his next term. And I think he has to think that way. So for me
Carter
19:14
me right now, I'm less concerned about
Carter
19:16
about this potential of an earth-shattering new visible
Carter
19:24
visible minority in this situation, and I'm far more interested in just competence at
Carter
19:31
this stage. I don't
Carter
19:33
don't preclude the fact that it's someone who's going to be competent.
Carter
19:36
I'm not precluding that, but I don't think that that's the reason to do it.
Corey
19:41
yeah i i just don't know that anybody has ever lived or died based on who the speaker was like i don't think people were being like uh i would vote for martin but you know i don't like that millican guy or fair enough yeah i just don't think people
Zain
19:55
is there any way they could fuck this up oh
Corey
19:58
times yeah maybe the person they nominate was a
Zain
20:01
a nazi for example okay well that'd be great hey on this no one isn't talking about this and and not because like they should. But, you know, do you think there's a conversation in there where someone gets up and is like, you know, we should find someone on our benches who's Jewish? That would really solve our problems right now.
Zain
20:17
How would you respond to that? Like, if you were staff in a caucus meeting, you know, where the liberals are discussing who to triangulate around, and that suggestion was made, I'm once again not saying anyone's making that suggestion.
Zain
20:29
But, you know, let's solve our current political problem with this, you know, solution that we have with our speaker. Carter, Carter, you're shaking your head. Corey, you are too. How would you respond to that? Well, no
Carter
20:40
no sense in solving yesterday's problem today. I mean, it is, you're
Carter
20:44
you're past that. You've got to think ahead and think about what the next problem is going to be. This one's done. You fucked this up. You're done. You're not going to be able to go back and say, well, let's try this new solution.
Carter
20:57
That's not the way the world works. So, you know, but it does kind of show where the liberals kind of are are stuck right now like would someone suggest that yeah i mean that actually sounds incredibly plausible um because they're just not good at this particular piece of the game so it
Carter
21:16
it would be utterly ridiculous to solve last week's problem today just don't do that would be my would
Carter
21:23
would be my push tory
Corey
21:26
just feel like that is the kind of thing that it would feel impossible not to perceive as kind of performative right and that would be the fun i think that would be such a uh an injustice to the to the speaker candidate right like my oh
Zain
21:42
thankful you're here do you want to be speaker right like that yeah
Corey
21:46
i don't i just feel like that would be that'd
Zain
21:48
that'd be shot dead
Zain
21:51
from a political perspective
Corey
21:51
perspective well let's put it this way if there is somebody that and you know the role of speaker is a little bit bit different as we've talked about the people who would be great ministers are not necessarily the people who'd be great speakers and vice versa um if there is somebody in ottawa who people feel would be a great speaker and they happen to be of the jewish faith i mean cool like that's fine but where you're going to get absolutely you know in a lot of trouble as a government is um if you pick somebody who seems to have no business being speaker and and they have and they happen to be be jewish or it seems that they're being chosen specifically because they're jewish then you're going to get yourself in a world of hurt just an absolute world of hurt carter
Zain
22:32
carter quickly conservative strategy on this what should it be uh
Carter
22:35
uh i mean just try and bung it up i mean try and make it slow make it take longer uh force people to make a decision they maybe didn't want to make um
Carter
22:45
you know that that's really all to be clear
Zain
22:46
clear is there any way that conservatives can get a conservative to be speaker like we know some some of the deputies or at least one of the deputies is conservative and he's been filling in for the last little bit is that in the in the realm of possibility yeah but yeah i mean
Corey
23:00
mean it's not probable
Corey
23:01
probable but it's possible when
Carter
23:02
when you've got a minority government there is you know there is everything is on the table hell i mean the new democrats might be able to get someone um you know like put forth your best name i mean shit it
Carter
23:13
speaker elizabeth may i don't know make it happen go liz she wants yeah she
Zain
23:18
she wants it i
Carter
23:19
i mean i don't think she's gonna get it but and i
Carter
23:21
i think it would be fucking horrific for her party i mean you're supposed to be building a party from the grass up and you're and you're basically going to take yourself off the well she's the co-leader
Zain
23:29
-leader of her party yeah
Carter
23:31
i mean she's a
Zain
23:33
so they still have another leader well
Carter
23:35
well i mean how many leaders that's that's
Zain
23:38
that's why you have redundancy but i'd say the greeds have done it best you you if there's a speaker opening one of your leaders honest to god
Carter
23:44
god if elizabeth may becomes a speaker just shut down the fucking party just shut it down because it will have lost they
Zain
23:51
they have a leader after i don't think you understand what cory and i are saying i understand
Carter
23:54
understand exactly what you're saying what
Carter
23:57
what i'm telling you i don't think you get it there's a second leader you're not understanding here The party is
Carter
24:04
because they have very late and my PJs are chafing is
Carter
24:07
what I'm trying to say.
Corey
24:09
Yeah, I always picture you as a little spoon too. Yeah,
Carter
24:11
Yeah, I don't know. I'm a big spoon fella. Yeah.
Zain
24:14
Should we take a trip to DC, Corey?
Corey
24:16
Oh, yeah. Yeah, I think we have to.
Zain
24:18
45 day continuing resolution. There is no government shutdown for the next 45 days. The Democrats are celebrating this after we were on the brink of a government shutdown shutdown as getting everything that they wanted and the republicans just outright capitulating uh and saying whatever fuck it give you 45 days on the sunday morning talk shows everyone's best friend matt gates a friend of the playground matt gates uh is around google
Zain
24:45
not cool i know matt not cool not cool matt is
Zain
24:50
is out saying listen uh
Zain
24:51
uh i am ready to stand up and put emotion on the the floor to vacate kevin mccarthy he's done uh he is not doing what he promised the the mega set of of congress and if he is still speaker by the end of this week uh it is going to be propped up by the democrats effectively putting it on the feet of the democrats saying he cut a deal with them he capitulated he lost he lost purposely he gave them everything they wanted he's their speaker and if if he's not voted out by the end of this week well that you you we i've revealed to you clearly who the Democrats and the Republicans' establishment work for. You only have one, you have a uniparty in this country. I'm kind of paraphrasing some of the things we've heard from him today. Interesting, perhaps
Zain
25:38
perhaps strategic quagmire for the Democrats, Corey. What would you do for them? Would you go on with the mega crowd and vote Kevin McCarthy out and head into a potential unknown? Or do you keep a guy that you, as most recently as the night before, were able to cut a to deal with even if he just had to give you everything you you not everything but mostly everything you wanted to keep the government going how do you play this what do you see as a strategic play cory well
Corey
26:06
you if you're the democrats you have a lot of options and those options run the gamut far beyond keep them or lose them you can uh there's things that you can do publicly and there's things you can do behind the scenes and you can horse trade on an awful lot of stuff so if you want to kill that talking point of matt gates you can't 100 kill it but you can and 90% kill it by having all of the Democrats present vote against Kevin McCarthy. It just happens to be as many Democrats weren't there as are needed to make the Yahoo caucus of the Republicans fail in their effort to vacate the
Corey
26:39
the speakership, right? You
Corey
26:41
You can do something like that. You can talk to Kevin McCarthy and say, happy
Corey
26:44
happy to do that, but here's what we're going to expect in terms of these subtle rule changes along the way. And so lots
Corey
26:51
lots of horse trading possible lots of things that will then give matt gates more fuel down the road to say can you see this corrupt system they did this in an exchange they they allowed to be more votes brought to the floor directly without the ability to have like a caucus majority blah blah blah whatever they decide right
Corey
27:06
right uh you know i think it's a discharge motion that pulls it straight to the floor i can't remember the exact terminology but lots of options i guess the thing i would say is if i were the democrats and i was looking at this i for sure wouldn't think hey by the end of the week we play our cards right hakeem jeffries could
Carter
27:23
could be speaker although
Corey
27:23
although that might be true because this
Corey
27:26
this place is so broken but um i think more i'd be thinking they're lighting themselves on fire let's keep live to strategic opportunities let's be unified as a caucus what we're willing to trade how we're willing to trade it when we're willing to trade it but let's not make our bets now we don't need to make our bet first we get to make our bet last and and the more The more chaotic that side is before the moment of decision, the better things will be for us. So I would have a kind of public strategy of maximum ambivalence, maximum confusion. Look at them. They're crazy over there in the Republican Party. They can't govern worth a damn. We'll be looking at this very closely. We obviously don't think Speaker McCarthy is the right speaker for this country, but
Corey
28:11
but we also want Washington to function. So we're going to be looking at this very closely. I'd be using phrases like that over
Zain
28:16
over the next bit. Carter, is ambivalence to strategy here? Is it as simple as that? From your perspective, how would you be processing this if you're advising the Democrats heading into this week, where the
Zain
28:28
the Speaker of the House might be potentially losing his job after, well, less than nine months? Well, I
Carter
28:32
I think the question is who's going to replace him, right?
Carter
28:34
right? So there's going to be a motion to vacate. Interesting. You know, he's, I don't really understand, but I believe that he will be out once that motion happens, and they have to elect a new speaker. The Democrats, to me, will do what the Democrats did last time, which is
Carter
28:53
they'll nominate Hakeem Jeffries. They won't have enough votes for Hakeem Jeffries, but they'll vote for Hakeem Jeffries. And that is expected of them. I don't think you have to play anything more than that, except when they get to the 27th vote or something along those lines. You know, be aware that there could be maybe
Carter
29:12
maybe there's some maybe there's some republicans
Carter
29:15
republicans that are are just trying to figure out what the fuck their future looks like it's one thing to play these types of games with a long way to go to an election it's another thing entirely to be playing these games you know getting closer every every day gets closer to another election in the united states and i think that this um
Carter
29:35
um game playing coupled with the trump situation in the in the you
Carter
29:40
you know in the republican party um gives the you
Carter
29:44
know just kind of demands that the democrats just be simple right don't don't overreach don't try and do too much just be simple and the simplest course of action at this stage is to vote for hakeem jeffries keep it simple uh
Carter
29:58
uh don't try and push too hard um and see where you wind up because who knows? Who knows how this ends? But it doesn't end with
Carter
30:13
Republicans. That's almost certain.
Zain
30:18
guys have both presented pretty clear-eyed, pretty straightforward strategies. Are there any traps here? I am hearing from both of you that the Gates sort of trap isn't really one there's a lot of optionality here but are there any traps here as the the mega wing of the republicans enter into the let's get rid of kevin mccarthy period this week yeah
Corey
30:40
yeah there's there's lots of traps so i i don't i
Corey
30:44
i mean every six months we get a crash course in in u.s parliamentary conventions here but yeah i'm
Corey
30:50
i'm fairly certain and i could be wrong about this but you know i'm i'm the guy who edits the podcast so i'll just uh i'll just take that
Zain
30:56
that over if i'm wrong oh
Corey
30:58
oh yeah that's That's good. What
Corey
30:59
What are we going to
Zain
30:59
to double it over
Corey
31:00
over with? Fairly certain that the first vote to have, so the vote can be called on very few people. You know, that was the big rule change that he agreed to. The
Zain
31:07
The motion to vacate? It's
Zain
31:09
Gates can stand up and say,
Corey
31:11
say, it's me. And he's already said he's going to do
Corey
31:13
There you go. But then the motion needs to be voted on, right?
Corey
31:16
And Speaker McCarthy has the majority of his conference. The problem is, if he just loses a few, plus all the Democrats vote vote against him then it's vacated so that the question for the democrats is not would they support hakeem jefferson to be speaker the question for the democrats is is
Corey
31:33
is he are they're gonna is there gonna be a vote so this
Zain
31:35
this is vacate on the specific question exactly so this is your challenge
Corey
31:39
challenge if you're the democrats this is
Zain
31:41
is it yeah the
Corey
31:42
the republicans are in total disaster mode right now don't let it become your problem and your question it's got to be their problem and their their question and keep the eyes on them. You don't want to be the people responsible for any of these decisions. So what I actually quite like about Stephen's strategy is if you just immediately be like, yeah, of course we're going to vote against him. And of course we're going to vote for Jeffries. And you just get your popcorn and watch what's going on. Like that's, that's super clean. As long as you can hold your conference together.
Corey
32:11
There are some practical realities though, not least of which is, would anyone put it past us to still be here in 45 days if this is going on i mean it could be absolute bedlam so i mean that's the that's the challenge on the other side also carter and i would have to do another episode like the one we did on this and it wasn't a popular episode wasn't
Zain
32:31
wasn't popular i thought it was very popular i thought you guys were killing it you
Zain
32:35
more more ai zane yeah in the mix we didn't have ai zane
Corey
32:38
zane at the time we're
Zain
32:38
we're gonna leave that there carter unless you've got something to say because i'm moving on to the over under and lightning round i've got two two questions carter two prediction questions uh good let's start with you we we do
Zain
32:47
do this for you carter kevin mccarthy end of the week is he speaker cory
Corey
32:52
cory is he speaker by the end of the week
Corey
32:57
jeb bush is speaker jeb
Zain
32:58
jeb bush is gonna
Carter
32:58
gonna be a great speaker
Zain
33:00
jeb bush has actually been the speaker the whole time yeah you can applause uh please please clap please please clap thank you um cory
Zain
33:07
cory i'm gonna start with you on this next one tuesday manitoba election we didn't discuss it on the patreon special but we spent spent a fair bit of time on it uh
Zain
33:14
in the in the in the episode who
Corey
33:19
boy well look i mean
Corey
33:22
if we're gonna look at the polls i'm gonna say that it's gonna be the ndp
Corey
33:27
and that's really all i've got to go on i'm not on the ground in uh uh
Corey
33:30
uh in manitoba so let's just say the polls if the ndp does not win though i
Corey
33:37
i it's gonna be yet another proof point that we're in a deeply conservative time in Canada.
Zain
33:42
Carter, what do you think? Are you going with Corey saying that it's going to be with the polls? Or are you going to buck the trend, say it's going to be the PCs that come out victorious on Tuesday? Oh,
Carter
33:51
Oh, I mean, it's obvious to me that one of them is going to win.
Zain
33:59
We're going to leave it there. That's a wrap on episode 1256B of The Strategist. My name is Zane Velch. You're with me as always, Corey Hogan, Stephen Carter, and we will see you next time.