Episode 1048: The only poll that counts is the one two weeks before Election Day

2023-04-11

Zain, Stephen and Corey break Zain's self-imposed "no provincial politics" rule to talk Danielle Smith's updates to her Pawlowski recording strategy. Then: the gang gets righteous about an Ontario proposal to ban polls in the last two weeks of a campaign.

Corey Hogan and Stephen Carter talk about Alberta Premier Danielle Smith's shifting approaches to the Pawlowski recording and a no-good, very-bad idea to ban polling in the last two weeks of Ontario elections. Why can't Smith stick to a story? Will Ontario go forward with the recommendation to do away with public opinion polls during the closeout to elections? And when is AFL season over? Zain Velji, as always, picks the questions and keeps everybody in line.

Jump to transcript

Transcript

Zain 0:01
This is a strategist episode 1048. My name is Zain Velji. With me as always, Corey Hogan, Stephen Carter. Guys, what
Zain 0:10
what is going on? It's Easter Monday, Carter. Have you been doing what one does on Easter Monday?
Carter 0:15
Resurrected? No, I was fine all weekend.
Carter 0:19
I'm good. Thank you. I had
Carter 0:23
had a full day. It was a regular day for me, a regular work day. yeah
Corey 0:26
yeah i think the resurrection happens on easter sunday so i
Carter 0:29
i said that yesterday to my family but they were all like no it happens on monday and i was i i
Corey 0:35
i don't know so it's like the whole thing is like on the third day so do you count the good friday as the first day i think that's what it this
Carter 0:42
this is your people cory i mean this is not my people so i'm not i'm not really up to speed with the whole resurrection thing but yeah i i was not resurrected today i uh i had a nice day though very happy uh went uh seven for nine on my afl predictions i know you guys always speaking
Zain 1:00
speaking of resurrection um the live show uh i mean i want to resurrect the vibes and from the live show steven carter had to consult a doctor after his uh his buzzy appearance and buzzworthy appearance um but i noticed that uh we may need to consult someone else for the the live show as well yeah
Corey 1:18
yeah the uh the audio is not up yet um because
Corey 1:22
because it was hard any
Corey 1:24
any any questions i believe we
Zain 1:28
steven carter as you know we are an anti-hard podcast we we do not like things that are hard
Carter 1:33
hard yeah we don't like hard no
Corey 1:35
no here's what people need to understand about our technical capacity and let's
Corey 1:40
clear this is not a justification this is an explanation please Please go ahead, Corey, yes.
Corey 1:46
No, it's a justification. Oh, okay, it's justified. This is absolutely justified. Well, just be clear, everyone, this
Zain 1:50
this is a justification, not
Corey 1:51
not an explanation. All right, so we get in.
Corey 1:54
So we get into a thing. I don't even know what you call it, but I can see you, you can see me. Yeah. We're recording. Yeah. I hit record. We talk for an hour. I hit stop.
Corey 2:05
I hit mix, and then I hit post. And I think I do a pretty good job of
Carter 2:10
of that. You do a great job of that. that is some yeah
Carter 2:13
quality stuff that you do yeah
Corey 2:15
yeah i mean this one
Corey 2:16
one was going to be harder so
Carter 2:21
is exactly how it goes that
Zain 2:23
that was uh that wasn't the podcast is risen that was an easter joke for you carter i feel like no
Carter 2:27
no i really enjoyed it yeah no i know
Carter 2:30
i was there i was steven carter
Zain 2:31
carter i'm gonna move it on i we have so much to talk about let's move it on to our first segment. Our first segment, will it matter? Guys, here's
Corey 2:40
here's the thing. I have said that
Zain 2:41
that I am going to stay away from Alberta politics, but some stories, Stephen Carter, some stories, Corey Hogan, one cannot just stay away from. One needs to talk about. And that one story that I want to talk about right now, guys, is our premier, Danielle Smith. She's under ethics investigation related to the COVID-19 prosecution. I want to go into this story a bit. I don't want want to go into it heavily i want to talk about it a bit now um i want to talk about whether this will matter from the frame of the election because this is what's most very interesting steven carter the background on this story this is a a leaked conversation that was uh i think about a couple weeks ago now uh put out there by the ndp and cbc um daniel smith on this uh 10 plus minute recording with arthur palowski uh talking about his covet uh prosecution Many of the facts already known out there as it relates to her saying, leave it with me. An unsavory character, Polowski, with a long history of discrimination. She has come out with a couple of different tactics. Tactic number one, initially saying, I'm going after the CBC and refusing to talk to media about this. tactic number two on a radio show recently saying, well, I actually thought I was talking to a leader of another political party in Mr. Polowski, who at that time was the leader of, you guys may need to remind me, was it the Alberta Independent Party or some political party that he'd set up? She came- I mean- Yeah, right. She came up with that. Yeah,
Zain 4:13
they're all the same. We'll get to it. And now, Stephen Carter, the cherry on top, one might call it, is that that Alberta Premier Smith says she is under investigation by the province ethics commissioner into whether she interfered in administration of justice related to these prosecutions. We've talked about this
Zain 4:32
this story. You've talked about the story with Annalise, but I want to now go in with this newest development. Carter, maybe let me start with you in this conversation. This newest development doesn't matter to the election. And then let's go into how can we make Or how does one make it matter in this upcoming election, which is T minus just, you know, a little bit more than six weeks away? Carter, over to you. Well,
Carter 4:56
I can't help but think we're giving you a free strategy session here, Zane, but you're welcome. We'll do it anyways. We'll do it anyways. But here's the thing. Yes, it will matter. And it will matter not because necessarily of, you know, how the electorate are going to treat it. It will matter because of how the media is going to treat it. the media you
Carter 5:16
know the media are fair all the time uh and i know that people feel like the media aren't fair sometimes but they always work very hard to be fair and they won't just cover a story just because that story is is interesting to them and they want to get to the bottom of it or those types of things they actually need new developments in order to cover their story and this premier uh for whatever reason feels some sort of moral obligation to continue to give give the media new angles to cover. I mean, she had said, I think, I think she'd said, you know, kind of disingenuously that she couldn't speak to the issue because it was in front of the courts. That is something that Corey and I, you know, we've seen it a million times where that line is used, but it's effective line because it gets you out of a problem. And then she goes in on her own radio show where no one's interviewing her. No one's asking her the hard questions. she goes and states that a whole brand new reason a whole new theory of the case as to why she's actually um you know speaking to to Arthur Pulaski um which is bullshit and everybody knows it's bullshit now it gives the media another opportunity to take her around one more time and speaking of someone who watched her go around and around and around in 2012 this is her pattern she tries to to get out of the problem instead of allowing the problem to go away and she's allowing this problem to to
Carter 6:41
to fester and and to develop because she will not get out of her own way uh and whoever's advising her is giving her bad lines they are giving her a bad way of getting out of out of these problems and and she's digging it deeper um so the media will continue to cover it um
Carter 7:01
um and And they've been given reason to recover it by no one except the premier herself.
Zain 7:07
That's a very interesting thought, Carter, that frame of a political leader. And in this case, it's Danielle Smith. But I think that's a really interesting examination you've just put on there of a political leader trying to get out or solve a problem versus letting one go away. And I think there is something to examine there more holistically. But Corey, I want to give you the same opportunity I did to Stephen, which is the first top line question with inertia as its only fuel, perhaps, and of course, opposition parties and other political parties. But with this story, just kind of on the path that it's on, will it matter? T minus six weeks in your mind.
Corey 7:44
Yeah, I think the fact that I think the premier was coming to the realization it was going to matter, which is why she's changed her story. In my opinion, this notion that, oh, it's in front of the courts. Now I now I can't talk about it, by the way, a very interesting read because if all you need to do is sue somebody and then you're not allowed to talk about something, let's
Corey 8:07
let's call that a loophole in public discourse, shall we? That's a
Carter 8:11
a pretty fucking big loophole. Yeah, exactly.
Corey 8:14
I mean, historically, we've seen that more as I'm under legal investigation, I'm in trouble, because it's somewhat tied to the idea that you don't incriminate yourself, right? I mean, that's fundamentally where this roots in. So the idea The idea that you would sue somebody and then not talk about it is very novel, shall we say. But it wasn't worth it, I mean, for the reasons I said. Yeah, novel to the point that you found it like... Novel to the point of absurdity. Okay, I thought you were going to say novel to the point of like strategically interesting. No,
Corey 8:44
No, novel to the point of absurdity. And the media immediately jumped down her throat on it. And it wasn't going to go away. And I think some other obvious challenges came once they had a bit more time to think about it. Like, holy
Corey 8:57
holy shit, would this ever be a bad strategy during, say, a leaders debate, where all of a sudden you have Rachel Notley just hammering you to death, describing it exactly as she sees fit. And your only line is, I can't speak about it. It's before the courts. Because again, this is tied to the idea of self-incrimination. That's why people don't say these things. They don't want to put something that might get them. So it's going to look guilty. It was a bad idea. The other thing is the idea that you would give them until the start of the election, I'm sure, seemed clever to somebody at some point. But you're just firing up the issue at the start of the election when CBC says no dice. You mean they being
Zain 9:36
being CBC issuing their apology and their retraction by that late April deadline?
Corey 9:43
Yeah, yeah. I mean, it just doesn't make any kind of sense. So my sense of the radio show was a little bit different. Like, I'm not sure that I would go so far as to say it was a aggressive strategic decision, but it did sort of feel like somebody who knew her
Corey 9:59
her answer wasn't working, so she was trying a different answer. And if I understand, I didn't listen to it, but I believe there actually is a host from Chorus, Stephen, who's there. So maybe she
Carter 10:08
she was being pushed a little bit. Yeah, but no one who's really putting her to the gears. Come on. For
Corey 10:11
For sure. Agree with that
Corey 10:14
But maybe she just got a look in the room, is my point, where the guy's like, fucking really? Are you being serious right now? And drifted towards her party leader answer, which is not a strong answer either. I mean, ultimately, now the problem is there are multiple stories out there. well
Zain 10:32
well let me ask you this yeah you guys have both mentioned the statement of not commenting because cory oh and the cbc case it was uh and i'm paraphrasing here because i don't have your exact words in front of me but she said it's probably going to be in front of the courts it's not that it's in the courts like yeah i'm gonna put it on i'm just i've gently glided it on this track so like i can't fucking talk about it um carter they
Zain 10:55
as in the premier's office has has issued a very similar statement after this investigation. Let me read it to you. The premier welcomes the investigation, is fully cooperating with the commissioner, and is confident the examination will confirm that there's been no such interference. That part seems pretty standard fare. Then the second part, as a result of this ongoing investigation, would be inappropriate for the premier to comment on this further until the investigation is completed. Is that better strategically than what we heard? Or is that exactly the same in your mind And that same sort of trap, as Corey may have listed it, that he's put himself in. And Corey's eagerly wanting to go first. So, Corey, I'm just going to jump over Carter and go. Yeah. This better be gold. Yeah,
Carter 11:33
Yeah, yeah. Because, look, I'll
Corey 11:35
I'll say this. It is the actual reason why you might not say something if you're under investigation. So they have not for good –
Corey 11:46
it's not a good time when you're being investigated by the ethics commissioner. But it becomes a little bit more legitimate at this point to say, well, I'm not going to say it. There's an investigation going on. I got to say something about the Ethics Commissioner investigation, though. The Ethics Commissioner's job is not to make sure politicians act ethically. It's much narrower than that, right? It has to do with whether, you know, there's the lobbyist registry, but there's also the idea of whether they're advancing private interests using their public role. and um i
Corey 12:15
i don't really know if the ethics commissioner's scope allows them maybe it does maybe it doesn't but like it's not their bread and butter either way to say like are they interfering in the administration of justice to me the ethics commissioner's angle there would be are you advancing a private interest in your interference in justice yeah
Corey 12:34
right and if arthur palowski is not actually a friend of yours like
Corey 12:39
like there's a real chance
Corey 12:40
chance here that the ethics commissioner, quote unquote, clears Danielle Smith because of a much narrower scope. And I think that's the thing that you've got to keep an eye on if you're an Alberta newshound, commentariat, whatever it is, because this might not be apples to oranges, and it's something you've got to keep an eye on.
Carter 13:00
Let me take that further, Corey, because this is like going to traffic court to try and settle civil litigation. You've gone to the wrong place, and you're asking the wrong question. Uh, the traffic court may say, yeah, you know, this person didn't break any rules, uh, according to our traffic regulations, but
Carter 13:17
they may have broken all kinds of different rules, um, in different, in, you know, different courts or different jurisdictions, different, different laws, the ethics and the ethics, everybody's got governed, right? Whether it's the privacy commissioner, the ethics commissioner, the, the, they don't have unlimited scope of purview. And when you ask the like, I want to like, I heard that it was the NDP who pushed for this ethics investigation. I hope it wasn't. I mean, the idea that you're going to push it off to someone to
Carter 13:47
some other entity, especially a toothless ethics commissioner that I mean, basically every decision that comes out of there at worst is, yeah, I didn't think they should do that. So I've I've told them not to do that anymore. You know, why on earth would you want this before the ethics commissioner when right now it's actually in front of the only court that matters? Public opinion. Public opinion is the only court that matters to the NDP. And if it was if it was them who pushed this off to the ethics commissioner, it was a tremendous error because now they've taken it out of the court of public opinion and put it into a, you
Carter 14:24
you know, into the ethics commissioner court. where, again, I would argue it doesn't belong anyways, does not belong on the ethics commissioners docket.
Zain 14:33
Corey, I do want to get back to your point about timeline and scope, because you've talked about scope for a second. I'll get to that. But Carter makes an interesting point here around
Zain 14:42
does the moniker, does the label, does the headline that Danielle Smith is under investigation, does that have enough juice heading into the next six weeks? We've seen something similar with Jason Kenney, because we almost have an apples to apples ish comparison, at least a fruits to fruits comparison of, you know, Jason Kenney, you know, the cops are after him under investigation, RCMP investigation. It didn't seem to make a difference last election. I'm curious in your mind, are we strangely enough, just, you know, climatized to that? Was that different? I'm of when this lands and what the scope is to label the premier as as someone under investigation or ethics investigation yeah
Corey 15:32
yeah so the thing about the difference it well there's two differences but let's talk about the the one that i think matters the most in terms of a looming election is jason kenney the idea that he cheated at an election um
Corey 15:47
um unproven i want to be super clear right the suggestion that that is out there and we still don't know the result of that by the way just to no we don't know what's going on and the reality is it's been years and at this point it almost feels like would
Corey 16:02
would it have any effect even if it came now unless the entire front bench of the government was somehow involved as well no i doubt it would have any real effect uh it would probably be some sort of fine and that would be the end of it i feel at this point but the um um that wasn't something that reinforced a negative about jason kenney i mean it feels like a funny thing to say but the idea that jason kenney is calculating gets things done is not something like if you're voting for jason kenney and the ucp in 2019 it probably wasn't because you thought he was like the nicest guy in the world like we had a lot of polling at the time that showed his negatives were higher than rachel notley's it's
Corey 16:41
kind of tossed it in right he trailed party, but he was seen as a guy who could get things done. He got the merger done between the PCs and the Wild Rose, got things done. The big difference this time is if there is a big looming question mark over Danielle Smith, it's her judgment. And this is right in that box. This is really calling into question Danielle Smith's judgment. And it reinforces a concern that Calgarians have, and I'll just say Calgarians because the election is about Calgarians here. and that's why it matters and that's what makes it a bit different here politicians
Corey 17:14
politicians are a group that invites cynicism from the public the public thinks politicians do certain things you know certain bad things i think the public should smarten up and and not actually give the politicians a pass by just assuming that all politics is dirty they should ask for clean politics but this
Corey 17:33
this is something that really calls into question a
Corey 17:37
a core competency that's required in a premier and that's what makes it different yeah
Carter 17:42
yeah and there's an ends justifies the means type of feeling to the to the kenny thing right he had to bring everything together and he has to he had to save the province so that we could all have jobs and that type of feeling and i think that some people were prepared to kind of give him the the a pass because the ends justified the means but i don't think that we're going to see that type of uh situation for danielle in the right now because um we're
Carter 18:09
we're not in the same place she's she's the premier you know jason uh you know was the victim of an overzealous elections you know uh alberta fiasco that was run by the by the the evil ndp right like it was a different time different characters and different understanding so this is this this does reinforce that negative for danielle and i think it becomes really hard hard for her to get out from under that negative.
Carter 18:38
So it's a it's a totally different structure.
Zain 18:41
Carter, I'm going to put you guys on teams. I'm not going to spend too much time on this because you guys can take the ball and run with it with with Annalise, because I'm assuming to your first answers for both of you paraphrasing, there'll probably be a story going forward. But Carter, if there is no turns in this story beyond what I've just explained and outlined with the premier under investigation, how
Zain 19:00
how do you give it more juice? And Corey, you're going to be acting on on the other team? How do you drag this story down, bury it, hide it? Do you bury it, hide it, if your point is to get away with it? Carter, I'll go with you first, then I'll come to Corey on it, on what strategies or tactics you'd use to give this story more juice, mold it, contour it, whatever you need to do. And Corey, on the opposite side of that question.
Carter 19:22
I think that the number one thing is to find patterns. Corey really articulated well what what the issue was of this was for Danielle. It's not just that she took Arthur Polowski's telephone call. It was, this is a pattern of bad decision making. She can't be trusted. We don't know what she's saying is actually true. So if we don't know that what she's saying is actually true, then we best find other examples of when she may be lying. And I think there's lots of them over the course of her kind of tenure, if you will, uh, as a columnist and as a, um, as a political figure, she has said and done many different things that kind of reinforce this, this, uh, attitudinal, you
Carter 20:09
you know, this ad, her attitude doesn't fit with the office of being the premier. And I think that that's the way to go for it. Now, keep the pressure up on this specific issue. Um, you know, I think that there's ways to put additional pressure on her cabinet to get more of this story out. I think that if it starts to look like they're going to lose their seats because they're not being honest and truthful around this issue, that maybe they start making leaks start happening as the rats try and escape the sinking ship and hold on to their individual jobs. So keeping the pressure up on this issue, while, you know, finding parallel issues that show the same proclivities
Carter 20:53
proclivities would probably be the strategy that I'd recommend.
Corey 20:57
how would you how would you drag this thing down?
Corey 20:59
Well, look, I, I'm not actually a big fan of the notion that any strategy beats no strategy. But I think, in
Corey 21:06
in this case, pick one, right? In some ways, if the premier had stuck to her line with the media, as untenable as that was becoming, she'd be in a much stronger place than right now. And in fact, when the ethics commissioner stuff came to the forefront, it would be reinforcing. It would be, see, I welcome the investigation. As said before, I'm not talking about it. Obviously, I think this is nonsense. I'm suing the CBC. Now, I mean, there's 11 minutes of tape. I mean, this is the fundamental challenge that the UCP has here. And so, I think that the original strategy, not to Monday morning quarterback, was the wrong one. Like, you're
Corey 21:49
you're asking people to deny their ears and their eyes. Well, their ears, really. She was on the phone. But, and that's not easy to do. That's not, you know, a particularly great place to be. If they were still so unsure as to what needed to be said, they shouldn't have come out swinging the way they did at the CBC because the idea that, oh, it was a party leader I'm talking to seems like such a swing from where she was before. I think that's fundamentally the challenge she now has. So in terms of burying this, I think that in a funny way, it's
Corey 22:23
it's not about burying it now. It's about making sure it's dead for the election.
Corey 22:28
so if there is anything else to drop, if you have any other gambits, if you're going to clean up this CBC lawsuit thing, you do it now. Now,
Corey 22:35
Now, now, now, right? right? Unfortunately, you've already sent a letter saying they have 28 days.
Corey 22:46
you'd say, well, listen, now that it's in front of the ethics commissioner, actually, I don't even know. That just feels like it's guilty and weak. I feel like at this point now you're just sort of stuck. And if there was a way to do it, I would accelerate the timeframe. So maybe I would be picking on the minute the CBC puts another story out that I feel like I disagree with and And you have an updated letter from being like, well, now you've got, I don't even know. I mean, I'm not even sure if you could, but like now you've got one week and let's just get it out now and let's start this thing now. And the courts don't move so fast that we're going to have a decision anyways before the end of the election. So, you know, let's get all of the pieces out of the way now. Let's
Zain 23:25
Let's not have them dragging
Zain 23:26
the election. Did you want to jump on this, Carter? It seems like you had an idea that you wanted to talk about.
Carter 23:31
That's what I didn't understand with this. I mean, why would they put such a long time frame on the response? Why would they, you know, say we're going to wait until the eve of the election call?
Carter 23:45
is it possible that they were thinking, well, maybe we can delay the election call if the CBC, you know, like we can make the CBC some sort of massive enemy. They won't even respond. They won't. You know, I
Carter 23:56
I don't know. It was such a massive misstep to give that length of time. There is absolutely no reason to give that length of time.
Carter 24:06
Go forth, and especially given that this really isn't a legal strategy, it's actually a public relations strategy. I don't think there's any lawyer worth his or her salt that would say, oh, yeah, no, we really got a good chance of winning this. But there's certainly maybe some PR professionals who would say, yeah, this could help us in the long run. so
Corey 24:27
this is this is what really blows my mind about it too because there's only one reason to say
Corey 24:34
like the week before the election starts this is your deadline it's if you think this is a winner for you yeah or they're going to like yeah
Corey 24:42
no no no not i mean they
Corey 24:45
they think yeah like they think it's a winner and i don't understand that there's
Carter 24:49
there's no way this is a winner i mean sure there's the anti-cbc crowd but they're already voting for you yeah
Corey 24:56
You're going to run against the CBC, especially on this ground. This is such shaky ground. If you make it an election issue, a bunch of people who've been asleep and not caring about it, and at best hearing passing reference to this, will go out of their way and they'll listen to it. Audio exists. And that's not audio that's going to leave people with a good impression of you. I mean, I'm sorry. That's just the reality here. She did not come off sounding like a particularly strong individual, even. Even if you set aside the ethical considerations, it was like, I can't get things done. I'm working on it. Like, who was the premier on that call?
Carter 25:31
he was subservient to him and his needs. And, you know, again, what the hell is she doing taking that telephone call? I mean, we've gone through that a couple of different times, but it really was a monumental mistake. And those types of mistakes have a way of haunting you for quite some time.
Zain 25:49
I'm going to leave that segment there. Let you guys pick that up when you will. I'm sure that story will be around and move it on to our next segment. Our next segment, Stephen Carter, margin of error. I want to talk about polling, Stephen Carter, and I want to talk about polling in the province of Ontario, because after some record low turnout in the last Ontario provincial election, not to mention some real dog shit candidates, The province's chief electoral officer is calling for a ban on publishing the results of political polls for the final stretch of the campaign. Let me give some context for listeners who may not be familiar with this. So as part of their 2022 debrief or audit of the election, the the election watchdog indicates that political polls have the potential to influence election results and under a heading called legislative changing, the report recommends disallowing the publishing and reporting of political polls two weeks in advance of Election Day. So for those keeping track at home, that would be like if you're in this Alberta election, May 15th, mid-May, last two weeks, no public opinion polls, no horse race polls, no understanding where things are going to continue. political polls have the potential to influence election results. He recommends that no public polling results stating political party favorability be published in the final two weeks. And he cites low voter turnout as being one of those things. Many respondents lost interest in the election due to early reports of a one-sided result. It
Zain 27:29
It says 36 polls will publish in the two weeks leading up to the vote in June 2nd of last year in Ontario. I want to talk about this. There is a strategy element here. There's probably a charter element here, which I think is interesting. If you recall, there was the election blackouts that we had back in the federal
Zain 27:46
federal election days. There's probably that element to it. But this is the strategist, Stephen Carter, and I want to start with the strategy elements of this. Let's get to that stuff in a second. I know there's a bit of a soapbox that you guys want to get on, but can I go with the strategy stuff first? If you had to deal with this reality, I want to go into straight. This is now a thing. This had massive public support. How would they know? But it did. This had massive public support. This is something that is now instituted. Stephen Carter, just explain to me, as a guy who's run so many campaigns, so many elections, guiding the ship as a campaign manager, guiding the ship as a strategist, on a province-wide or a city-wide race, talk to me about the impacts of not having political opinion polls in the last two weeks. Just paint me a picture, just only like the two of you can. What would that reality look like? What would that terrain look like? Because I don't think we fully appreciate it. Um, in the absence of political polls, you might say it's actually not that different saying, or you might say, actually, domino effects and the downstream effects would mean this wouldn't happen if that doesn't happen. This doesn't paint me a picture, Carter. Let's start with you and Corey. Maybe I'll get you to paint a similar picture building on what Carter's kind of put on the table.
Carter 29:00
Every single candidate would be in first place because
Carter 29:03
because every candidate and their team would say, we just did numbers. We obviously can't release them. It's against the law to release them, but we are looking solid. We have got the best polling. We're in the best spot. We're absolutely going to win. And I can now say that because there's no data that's going to come out to refute that. Absolutely nothing is going to come out. So now the poll that is released least um three weeks in advance of of the campaign or you know on the eve of the of the publication ban that poll is now going to be a gospel right and we're not going to see any movement we're not going to be able to see movement from uh you know that the long shot uh not had nenshi campaign where he's making the moves in the last three weeks and all of a sudden people now know that their vote vote for Naheed Nenshi, isn't going to be wasted. So it pushes them to go and vote for the underdog candidate. In fact, we have higher turnout because the underdog candidate is now viable. Oh, my God, this is so exciting. I finally get to vote for someone who I want to vote for, say the voters in Calgary, when that actually occurs. I mean, there would be none of these types of moves. And the worst part is that the cynics, the cynical operators who are going to just say that their candidate is winning, who have already used polls in kind of this really negative fashion, they're the ones who are still going to benefit from it because they're going to just make shit up. And absolutely nothing is going to be available in the public record to say that that's incorrect. It's
Carter 30:44
total bullshit. It is one of the worst decisions. They have drawn a correlative effect of a lot of polls have been published, and therefore people didn't vote without causation. They have absolutely no evidence. I mean, we've got millions, like hundreds of elections. How many of them have shown blowouts where people went, oh, I'm not going to vote for it anymore? more. This one in Ontario, this is just absolutely horrific, uh, misunderstanding of how elections work and the fact that it's been done by quote unquote professionals. Uh, what else does it play here? Um, cause this is just bullshit.
Zain 31:23
Corey, I'm going to get to, can I get to you in one second? I have one quick followup with Carter, which is Carter. Actually, I don't think I've ever asked you this on the show. Are you a believer in that old sort of adage that some of of our fellow political practitioners talk about saying, you know, in a race where someone is far out ahead, and I'm going to butcher what the actual phrase is, it's much more succinct than this. In a race where someone is so far out ahead, that those that stay at home, it's actually not a sign of apathy, it's just a sign of, you know, a blessing to let the train go in the tracks that it's going in. That if Doug Ford is ahead by 15 points, and only 30% of voters show up, that it's a tacit endorsement, not by the additional 70, but by a portion of that additional 70 to say, hey, you know what, I'm fine with the train going down that track. So are you
Carter 32:04
you a believer in that? I think that voting, if we're going to continue to have voting as an option instead of a requirement, then the right to choose not to vote is just as valid as the right to choose to vote. We have a lot of voters here in Alberta that will choose not to vote for the UCP or the NDP in this next election for a number of issues or reasons that they consider to be valid. valid and who am I to deny them that voter turnout is not actually the measure of whether an election has been successful the measure of whether a successful election has occurred is
Carter 32:42
is actually whether or not the election is seen to be safe the
Carter 32:45
the election is seen to be fair and
Carter 32:47
and that people have the information that they required to make the decisions that they made I don't think the voter turnout necessarily is the is a sole mechanism or a soul or the the sole determinant of whether or not we've had a good election.
Zain 33:01
Corey, I'm going to go back to the main question, if that's okay for you. Carter started painting a picture for us. What would happen if we had a polling blackout in the last two weeks of a rape period? He talked about everyone being in first place. He talked about the poll that gets released just before the blackout is being gospel. He talked about the fact that no real understanding that, and Carter, I'm going to paraphrase once again, that people are in this black hole. They have no idea what's going on. Everyone could be in first. Everyone's viable. But it also limits It limits the chance of a come from behind. It limits the chance of a late surge. It limits the chance of a crescendo at the end that's untracked or doesn't necessarily get the resources that an NSHE campaign or a lot of late break win campaigns have gotten. Corey, extend that picture. What else will you be adding if you were painting a picture for the listeners as to what a polling blackout in the last two weeks of an election could do? Yeah.
Corey 33:49
Yeah. So for the first election where there's a polling blackout, in particular, I think Stephen has hit the nail on the head. Everyone will be in first, there'll be all of these polls, quote unquote, leaked, that'll go around social media. Like, you're just not going to be able to put that genie back in the bottle. For sure. The reality is, when a poll gets published, there are requirements these days. What was the sample size? What were the questions? What was the order? When there's a poll that's leaked, that's not even supposed to be out there? I mean, by definition, you're not going to get that kind of rigor because it's not supposed to be out there to begin with. So I just think that that's, it's pretty dangerous. And it is ultimately going to make voters pretty nihilistic. And nihilistic voters, I think, is a bigger threat to democracy than complacent voters. Because like, what's going to happen is people are just going to say, well, it's all bullshit. Everybody's faking it. It's fine. And I just don't know how it serves anyone to have voters flying blind. I don't know how it serves anyone that voters would have access to less information than campaigns.
Corey 34:50
Don't we want voters to be able to make informed decisions? And look, I'm going to get back to your strategy question because it's an interesting one. How would I do it? And I want to talk about what would happen in kind of future elections.
Corey 35:02
Oh, man. Like in
Corey 35:04
in Ontario in particular, a three-party election, which
Corey 35:10
which of the other of the two progressive parties, the two left-wing parties is up? That information matters a lot, right? Right. We talk a lot about accessibility, viability, intent.
Corey 35:21
You know, accessibility, would you be willing to vote for that person? Viability, do you think they're going to win? Intent, who are you planning to vote for? Those are the three things I always measure in a political poll. And the reason why viability is an important part of that mix, it tends to be when we skip over, is because there's a collapsing of the vote that happens as people say, well, I'm open to these two parties.
Corey 35:41
I'm not open to that party. And by the way, it might be I'm open to liberals and conservatives, not NDP. I'm open to liberals and NDP, not conservatives.
Corey 35:48
And they want to make a call and they want their vote to matter. And that coalescing is important in a three-party democracy. And voting, you know, with polling information, it's useful. It's useful to have polling information when you're doing that. And look, you can maybe walk around your neighborhood, hey, there's more red signs than orange signs. Okay, right. But why would you deny voters that additional information? Because what you may end up having is, well,
Corey 36:15
well, how about this as an example? Do you remember the 2015 election? Feels like an eternity ago. go.
Corey 36:20
But the Liberals and the NDP were neck and neck until
Corey 36:24
until they weren't, until the Quebec French language debate where, you know, I won't go too deep into it, but the Liberals started to pull away. They came out strongly against the niqab ban. The NDP dissembled. And then all of a sudden, the Liberals pulled ahead a bit. And then because they were ahead a bit, they pulled ahead a bit bit more, and the NDP vote collapsed, and the Liberal vote climbed, because voters saw this virtuous cycle where it's like, oh, the Liberals are starting to get ahead in the polls. Let's go to the Liberals. Because the Liberal voters and the NDP voters, I think it was something like 68% of them collectively said the
Corey 37:00
last thing they wanted was another Stephen Harper election.
Corey 37:06
What if we didn't have polling there, right? I mean, it's quite possible Stephen Harper would would have won that election because you wouldn't have seen those small changes and people would have maintained the liberals and the ndp at the same point and that's actually not that's not that's how you build nihilistic voters because then they start saying like well most of us didn't want stephen harper and stephen harper still won but polling was a secret ingredient that allowed people to say okay
Corey 37:32
okay these guys are getting ahead of those guys we don't want stephen harper we're we're going to vote liberal.
Corey 37:38
That's important. That's important into three-party democracy.
Carter 37:41
And the reason, the reason it doesn't matter.
Carter 37:45
You know, like the reason why they choose to, I mean, it,
Carter 37:48
it, it, people make decisions for weird reasons in elections and polls are one of those weird reasons. They are not a worse reason than anything else. They are just a different reason. So, um, you know, pulling that off and saying, well, that's not a good enough reason, And just because, you know, um, the polling is not a good enough reason for you to change your vote. Um, that's, it's
Carter 38:11
it's so fucking arbitrary. It's just, why would you remove that particular reason, um, for, uh, for
Carter 38:19
for a vote to be cast or not to be cast? That, that is just, it's insanity to me. It's just so weak. And, um,
Carter 38:26
um, I just, I mean, this is going to favor a
Carter 38:29
a party. Absolutely. Absolutely. This would favor, I believe, a governing party, especially in a three-horse
Carter 38:35
-horse race, which maybe is why it's being suggested in Ontario.
Zain 38:39
You know, Corey, you talk about a vote collapse. I think one of the most intriguing vote collapses, not necessarily a collapse, but the test of viability that happened was in Ontario in the last election with the orange-blue shift that happens that we see around the Labour vote. We saw a version of that with private sector unions supporting Doug Ford, looking at the polls, looking at the polls, saying, OK, the NDP don't really have a shot here. We're seeing that this is probably a more de-risked move to go with Ford. You know, that perhaps, if it was in the final two weeks, could not have happened, that collective sort of endorsement shift and perhaps even that worker shift that we're seeing. I wanted you guys to set the terrain around what could happen. And then Carter, I want you to put your Machiavellian hat on saying, okay, I'm Stephen Carter, political strategist, campaign practitioner. I don't set the rules. I play by the rules. Corey, do you want to jump in before I jump into this? What did you want to? Yeah.
Corey 39:32
Yeah. One of the reasons why this particular issue animates me so much, why I hate this idea so much, is one of the reasons why I think we do this show is we're trying to show what
Corey 39:45
what happens behind the scenes. We talk about the strategic considerations that go in. We try to demystify them. We also try to arm people to be able to see when this bullshit is coming towards them here. I fundamentally believe information is good for voters. And the idea that we are going to say voters can't be trusted with information because they might then decide to sit on their asses is so fucking patronizing. It makes me insane. We live in a goddamn democracy. You know who should get the best, most current information? Everyone. All the time, the voters. And the idea that we'd be like, well, they can't handle it. These are
Corey 40:23
are not four-year-olds who are not eating vegetables. These are voters making decisions, and they can make decisions based on whatever information they want. And the more information, in my opinion, the better. Carter,
Corey 40:34
you are now a
Zain 40:35
political practitioner in Ontario where every voter is treated as a four-year-old who doesn't eat their vegetables. Carter, you are now – you've set the terrain. You said this is what's going to happen. Everyone could be in first place. Leaked polls on social media, this sort of information vacuum as it relates to polling, perhaps even this unethical sort of polling distribution online. Talk to me about how you're running a race now. Now, what are you doing differently? How is Stephen Carter setting things up?
Zain 41:06
I use Ontario. It doesn't have to be with the three parties. But tell me about fundamentally what changes for you as a political practitioner if there's a black hole in the last two weeks. You can go as simple or as expanded as you want. You could say things like, well, I'm actually commissioning a poll during that time and I'm leaking it online. I'm doing X, Y, and Z. Tell me what the new rules for winning in a race where everyone is first, there's a blackout on polling, looks like, Carter. This is now the reality, and you're having to work with it. Well,
Carter 41:33
Well, I mean, the first thing you have to do is you have to shift the time that you're expecting to be winning, right? So for
Carter 41:41
the Nenshi campaign, we felt like we needed to be in third place on September 1st. For Gondek's campaign, we felt like we needed to be in second place by June the 1st. So those dates vary based on when we think people are going to make their decision. You'll remember that our municipal campaign had the provincial campaign right on or the federal campaign right on top of it. So it was really going to be difficult to get attention to get airspace and those types of things. So that now basically what you what you have to design is a campaign that peaks to two weeks earlier. So you want to be in that campaign that is now peaking on in your two weeks before a writ date, which is already happening. I mean, this type of shift is already occurring because we are now seeing so much emphasis on preliminary polling,
Carter 42:38
polling, right? So advanced polling. So because of that emphasis on advanced polling, we're already putting a bigger emphasis on trying to peak at a certain date. All this is really doing is pushing us to peak two weeks in advance for sure.
Carter 42:51
Then you want to have a series of internal polls that you can leak. and the leak may not be as as as you
Carter 43:01
know devious as as kind of you know putting out a poll through social media it might just simply be you put out a poll you you circulate it for internal use only and of course that internal use only gets leaked out to your to the rest of the team I'll
Carter 43:20
I'll leave it to the to the the listener to determine how nefarious that is but that is that is the absolute least that will happen is that you will have your own internal bowls uh that you will use to get your own people excited because if your people think that you're in the game uh and they think that other people aren't in the game that you get a participation bonus more people will participate um so
Carter 43:44
so you know and i think that that's where they're fundamentally wrong on this is thinking that you know because because there was some sort of polling or more information drove people away from the campaign. I actually think that more information draws people into it. So I, I would, I would have another poll in the can and put that poll out and make sure that everybody on my team knew what the results were without broadcasting it. And then I'd really do some work to determine what it is that a broadcast looks like. Cause Corey's made a good point that, I
Carter 44:15
I mean, what do we even think broadcast looks like right now? Like, what does that even mean?
Carter 44:21
Because the internet's changed everything. And when we put something, anything out, it's going to have legs beyond the expectations of, you know, a simple regulator.
Zain 44:32
Corey, what would you, what would you add to Carter's list or what would you, what would your strategy look like if you had to, if you were forced to run a race where there's a two week blackout period, Carter talks about shifting dates and leaking polls, not just oversimplified, but Carter, that's kind of two of your, your tactics, Corey. Do you agree with those tactics? And if not, what would you supplement? What would you add? What would you do differently?
Corey 44:55
I think that I would agree with those tactics if I was in first place, and maybe if I was in second place. If I was in third place, there's a different opportunity available to you, which again, is going to like a very cynical move.
Corey 45:08
And it's just going to feed voter nihilism. Part of why I think this is a stupid fucking idea. Like I can't underline that enough. but i if i were in third and like not so far back third it's unbelievable but like you know a close third i'd hold so much ammo for the last two weeks i would i would create this sense the minute the poles were off that there was this crazy momentum towards me i'd fake this momentum while people were flying blind i wouldn't put signs on public lawn in alberta you're allowed to put signs on public lawn in calgary at least not in edmonton i'd
Corey 45:41
i'd be doing that they'd be popping up everywhere all of a sudden i'd be holding back my sign orders they'd be showing up everywhere i get people who can go sign blind when they see a sign for two weeks you know i've just be we do this thing before elections on election night you'll both know this tactic well because you start to not notice the signs so you'll get your volunteers to go around and move the signs on somebody's lawn to like the other side of the driveway or you know other part of the lawn if it's on a corner so that people notice the signs again well i would be doing that at the two-week moment when it it starts building that sense of momentum. And then I would be saying like, yeah, look at this, like we're really on the move. It's a shame that everything's blind now. Look at all this momentum. I'd be having events where I'd be pulling everything back. And you can
Corey 46:28
can make yourself look a lot bigger than you are. And that would be a very powerful tactic for a third party in a flying blind situation. And by the way, when Stephen Carter comes around with his polls accidentally leaking we just say that's bullshit right but
Corey 46:43
but now here's the thing zane a tactic like that's only going to work the first time maybe the second time it's going to talk about the voters wise to it after a couple of cycles yeah yeah
Corey 46:54
and and so uh it's going to be a bit of a moving target and you're going to have to change your tactics as things evolve and in the long run it looks exactly like what steven said it just sort of shifts out deadlines two weeks right and that's
Corey 47:08
that's that's going to be the practical reality so now
Carter 47:10
now our campaigns go from a four week period to a two week period well
Corey 47:15
well i don't know if i go that far but i would say ultimately some of these things are just going to happen two weeks before the idea of who's up and who's down is going to be frozen two weeks before it doesn't mean it's not still going to be racist in some cases but so cory
Zain 47:29
cory would you say that like timelines long-term impacts let's say this is you know let's say they do this in ontario and the elections commissioner is like it worked 61 participation this must be working yeah the last two weeks were a clusterfuck and we got to deal with that stuff online but correlation
Zain 47:45
is not causation but let's just say they accept that as it's
Zain 47:48
right i'm just i'm painting you a picture now let's the long-term impact of adopting this policy let's just say they adopted on a time horizon to say you know in order for us to test its efficacy we need to do this for a decade we need three election cycles a couple of them in in our belt.
Zain 48:02
So are you saying that the long-term impact here could simply be shifting timelines by a couple of weeks with a lot of noise in the final two weeks? Is that where you think this will land? Or do you think it's actually more, you used the word democratic, so I'm going to use that same word. Do you think it's more like democratically perverse than that?
Corey 48:21
Yeah, I think some things will shift up, right? What's going to happen is if there is a last minute surge, people aren't going to see it. People aren't going to get behind it. People People aren't going to believe it. So if you end up, say, going into that final two-week period, and let's say it's PCs, 40%, liberals, 35%, NDP, well, like 10%, right? I don't know. Like, well, then it's just going to be the liberals versus the PCs, and it's going to come down to that writing by writing. Doesn't mean the election won't matter in the last two weeks, but that's going to be the election.
Corey 48:54
And I think that would be a real shame. That's really unfortunate. Some things will continue. you, some things will not. But people will stop trusting late polls, people will stop trusting late momentum. And because they don't trust it, because people will have abused it when there was an opportunity to do so, you are really going to wreck the opportunity for other parties to move up in the last couple of weeks. And ultimately, I don't think that's good for democracy. And I don't think that's good for turnout.
Carter 49:23
Carter, give me your short, midterm
Zain 49:26
midterm or long-term impacts i have the same question for you right your midterm and long-term impact after the first race after we get the quote-unquote you know um issues out of the system after we deal with the the the sort of nuisance of social media leaks let's just say they're adopting this for a decade what
Zain 49:42
what are the midterm impacts for you number
Carter 49:44
number one uh voter turnout's going to go down uh
Carter 49:46
uh the number one reason why people say they don't vote is because they don't have enough information i think that's bullshit i think you can find all kinds of information but people want information handed to them. And one of the pieces of information they want handed to them is who's going to win. Who's the winner is a huge driver for voter intention. It's one of the reasons that we talk about momentum all the time. Momentum is significant because people want to vote for the winner. The second thing that this is going to do in the long term is this is going to erode confidence in the outcome um people will not have anything to point to that says you know what i expected that result and this result therefore meets you know is within the realm of that's a great point
Corey 50:33
comes out of the blue yeah i mean
Carter 50:35
mean so at a time when people are peddling uh the the idea that elections aren't safe and secure anyways all of a sudden now doug Ford wins a huge majority when people are pissed because they didn't have enough information to vote because the less engaged voter chose not to to vote that to me you know all of a sudden that becomes a much stronger much harder program for people to get on board with you know I didn't I wouldn't have fucking voted for Doug Ford well did you vote no I didn't have enough information okay um but i don't trust the results anyways i didn't have anything that gave me an indication that doug ford was actually going to win uh especially with if you start seeing really low voter turnout any voter turnout below 35 could be really problematic uh for
Carter 51:26
for i mean this is this is a fucking horrible decision it just needs to be it cannot be stated strongly enough that if this happens we will be facing an erosion um to
Carter 51:39
to our capacity to have a democratic country we're
Zain 51:42
we're going to leave that segment there moving on to our final segment are over under in our lightning round stephen carter we do this for you which is why stephen carter even though you have you do long-winded soapbox driven answer we're going to start with you stephen carter scale of one to ten daniel smith under ethics investigation one being yeah
Zain 52:03
not too bad ten being worst thing that could happen to her t minus less than it was just a little bit more than six weeks after the election what are you giving it steven carter i'm
Carter 52:11
i'm giving it a four i mean it's certainly not great but there's enough time to kind of get out from under it i mean we we were under a whole bunch of things uh in 2012 um at this time of the election we still won uh the electorate can and will change their minds, especially if polls get released in the last two weeks of the election.
Zain 52:31
Corey, what do you think? Scale of 1 to 10, Daniel Smith, Ethics Investigation, what is it for you?
Corey 52:38
The whole overall bundle for me is an 8 or a 9. This is a pretty significant problem to have with fewer than two months to an election. You got to accept and acknowledge that the actual Ethics Commissioner Investigation, I'm going to need to do a little more digging, understand a bit more of the scope but my my feeling right now is it is probably it
Corey 53:01
it has the possibility of presenting a false negative right like a clean bill when actually there is a bit of a problem here so um in that way it could be very beneficial to daniel smith depending on what happens so i'm gonna ultimately end up probably where steven is like a four right this is not the big thing the big thing is the big thing and the court of public opinion the overall conversation about judgment that is the challenge for daniel smith now i if the ethics commissioner comes back and says this was a violation that
Corey 53:35
that will be a challenge but i don't know if we're there yet based on what we know cory
Zain 53:39
cory i'm gonna ask you this about the federal liberals so we're moving to the federal scene for a second and over under on six. Okay. So six is the number. Is it over or is it under? The parliamentary budget officer this week stated that by 2030, when the price of carbon is expected to reach $170 per ton, most households will see a net loss despite the rebate payments offered by the federal government to offset the surcharge. So ultimately concluding that the carbon tax may not be, as the liberals have said for the longest time, revenue neutral. It was one of their hallmarks, their calling card, or their sort of branding line for the carbon tax that they have implemented. Now, there are many liberal MPs saying, go run the numbers again, because we're certain that they're wrong. There's some incorrect analysis. Others are arguing, regardless of what the facts are. Corey, as a political problem for the liberals, is this an over or an under on six for you? Well,
Corey 54:32
Well, let's just start with the PBO was a really bad idea, because it gives this sense of like like this arbiter of what things are going to be. And that's really unfortunate.
Corey 54:44
I understand it's based on the American Congressional Budget Office model, also a bit of a problem. But at least there, there's the logic of reconciliation and all of the other considerations that need to go into it that just they don't apply in the same way here. And yeah, I mean, I guess what I would say is the PBO can and does make mistakes. So we can't take it as gospel. But many people do take it as gospel. And for that reason, I think this is like a seven or an eight. This is a problem because it blows up a talking point that liberals have used with careless abandon over the past bit and, you know, live by the PBO report, die by the PBO report. Let this be a lesson to you. Ultimately, though, I do think the liberals can resolve it by saying, well, if that ended up being the case, we would increase the rebates or something to that effect. So it's not an unsolvable problem, but it will certainly complicate their communications implications on this particular file over the next bit.
Zain 55:40
Carter, you know, it
Zain 55:41
seems like the liberals have faced two things on the carbon tax recently. First is that, you know, Biden, their political ally, one would say, in the United States, as part of his IRA Inflation Reduction Act on tackling climate change, has not issued a carbon tax, which gave a talking point to conservatives as it related to carbon pricing doesn't have to be the only way we solve this. And secondly, this PBO report, Carter, same question for you, over, over, under, on a six as it rates to a political problem for the Liberals? I
Carter 56:09
I think it's under a six. I mean, the PBO is something that, I mean, sure, a talking point has been erased, and it will be, the Conservatives will be jumping up and down on it, but it turns out the Conservatives haven't been really that fond of the carbon tax from the beginning. So it basically puts everybody back into their regular places. places liberals still support a carbon tax conservatives don't like a carbon tax here we are again i just don't think it's going to be a significant piece uh the pbo i agree with cory though um if it were up to to me that that sucker would be gone uh in the first term of whatever government comes in next carter
Zain 56:49
carter second last question we're going to start with you how likely on a scale of one to ten one being not going to happen ten being this is definitely going to happen do you think this um blind two week final two weeks uh with no polling is is likely to be adopted in ontario give me your your sense of this i know the stakes we know the terrain we discussed it but give me your sense of on a scale of one to ten a stephen carter prediction uh what what likelihood will this uh will this land in in ontario i
Carter 57:21
i don't think it's going to to happen. I think the media organizations are going to jump in and bang on this. I think the polling firms are going to bang on this. And ultimately, I think the political parties are going to see the challenges that this could bring in the long term.
Carter 57:36
Hopefully, it doesn't happen. I mean, if it does happen, hopefully, it doesn't withstand a court challenge. That's really all we'll be doing at that stage is hoping that the courts are able to rectify a really, really negative situation.
Zain 57:53
Corey, on a scale of one to ten, how likely is this to happen in Ontario, in your mind?
Zain 57:58
It's not going to happen. It's
Corey 57:59
It's a bad idea. People will realize it's a bad idea. We've talked about a few reasons it's a bad idea. I could throw a few more on the table. How about for the fact that it's just in Ontario? So what's stopping, for example, the Western Standard, based here in Alberta, of running a poll and publishing a poll online in Ontario in those final two weeks. Abso-fucking-lutely nothing is the answer. So, like, this is the challenge and it's one of, like, a trillion challenges with it. It's just not going to happen because it can't happen because it's just too stupid to live.
Corey 58:33
just too stupid to live, Corey.
Zain 58:37
This Friday, Katie Telford, the Prime Minister's Chief of Staff, is set to testify on foreign interference. interference. Corey Hogan, any words of wisdom that you would have for Katie Telford as she heads into this testimony? She's going to testify at the House Affairs Committee on the issue. Your words of advice for her, Carter. I'll end the show with your words of advice for Katie Telford as she heads into this on Friday.
Corey 59:04
Yeah, big moment. One of the challenges that they have on this particular file is every time China comes up, this
Corey 59:11
this issue can potentially kick back up into the foreground this has the opportunity even beyond that to kick the issue back into the foreground uh obviously the cpc is out for blood on this and the ndp is going to find their moment too don't
Corey 59:27
don't say too much don't say too little just the same advice you'd give to anybody at one of those committee hearings show yourself to look competent don't look evasive evasion will kill you at this particular moment you've got to look like there's nothing to hide and that any any kind of reservation comes from a sincere concern with security but don't don't push that button so hard that it comes off phony carter
Zain 59:52
carter you know she's appearing after liberals launched a filibuster so she wasn't like she wanted to do this she's here because she was forced to be here they ultimately voluntarily relinquished and she's showing up so
Zain 1:00:03
so knowing that background advice to katie telford i
Carter 1:00:06
i i would try and make it look like you want to be as open and as humanly possible. I would imagine that she'll be bringing counsel in. That counsel will be talking about national defense issues. Make the counsel the bad person, but always make it look like you are trying to answer the question as honestly and as fully as possible. And if something can't be answered for reasons of national security or reasons or otherwise, make it your counsel's responsibility to stop your answer. Actually make it look like you're about to lean into the microphone microphone and speak your truth and have your council put his or her hand on your shoulder to
Carter 1:00:44
to say, I'm sorry, I have to say something. I have to interject. Council should be the person who is keeping the information from the public, not Katie Telford.
Zain 1:00:53
Corey, what do you think of that strategy?
Corey 1:00:55
I think it's okay. I would actually riff on it a bit and say, rather than say no, try to find moments to say, well, that would be a good thing to bring up at one of the national security committees that's not something we can talk about in this particular session and so look less like you're evading and more like you're redirecting to an area where that conversation can occur nicely
Zain 1:01:18
nicely done we're gonna leave it there that's a wrap on episode 1048 of the strategist my name is zane velgey with me as always cory hogan stephen carter and we'll see you next time