Transcript
Zain
0:02
This is a strategist episode 1009. My name is Zain Velji. With me as always, Stephen Carter, Corey Hogan. Guys, what
Zain
0:10
what is going on? We have absolutely no time to waste. Let's move it on to our first segment. Our first segment, the Velji rule. It is finally here. It is fine. Guys, celebrate me. is this
Corey
0:23
this an on-air bit or off-air bit the velge i don't know we talked about this before the
Zain
0:28
the velge rule started a decade ago more than a decade
Corey
0:31
ago more than a decade ago um
Zain
0:32
um and i don't think it's ever actually it
Corey
0:37
it may have made a cameo appearance it
Zain
0:39
it may have made a cameo appearance once uh but cory um the velge rule a long-held uh political rule yeah um i'd say across the world world um now it has made a cameo appearance it might make more than a cameo appearance uh we're on the verge cory but before before we talk about the specifics can you explain to folks what the velji rule is and can you just maybe give a little bit of a bio uh of its uh namesake please thank you yeah yeah
Corey
1:06
yeah okay well first of all i don't know why you want this rule named after you zane let's just start there this is true this is this is not a rule because it's something that zane and velgie did no it's a rule because it's something velgie observed yeah so maybe let's start there that's true it's probably a good place to start it's
Zain
1:22
it's true it's named after me because i was very desperate to have something named after me yeah this
Corey
1:27
was not a good one yeah this was not okay
Corey
1:31
but the zane velgie rule
Zain
1:35
it's the velgie rule
Zain
1:42
let's just call it the velgie let's call it a velgie rule the a
Corey
1:48
a velgie rule the a velgie rule yeah yeah is uh is an observation zane made which is um that
Corey
1:56
that your political career is is over and there's no return no no returning from it yeah all done the minute you have to utter the words you have to say in a statement i have always been a friend of the jewish people
Corey
2:10
yeah it's done it's over and
Corey
2:14
why are we bringing this up why would we be bringing this up i'm gonna make you yeah
Zain
2:19
well listen the reason uh first of all i will say i'm
Zain
2:24
i'm proud to have this rule named after me okay i'm proud to have made this observation no i made this observation okay i think it's a very fair and reasonable observation and by the way for the record i should just say i've always been a friend of the jewish people i just thought i'd put out this this actually i'm actually i'm actually stopping any political career of mine from starting exactly but get your posters get your get your zayn velji posters at the strategist.ca i'm open for all leadership positions um but cory i've always been a friend of the jewish people the reason we're actually talking about this is we've talked about this rule making a cameo in the past we might be actually having this rule find itself in an apology because steven carter drumroll. Stephen Carter, give us a bit of a drumroll. Do you want to guess who it is? It's Daniel Smith. Oh, we have a real drum.
Zain
3:12
Daniel Smith has shared a link to an anti-Semitic blog while writing about potential of global currency. It has just been reported that on two occasions of the past year that is right. That is right, Carter. That phone call. Thank you. On two occasions of the past year
Zain
3:28
it's... What is that? Is that Flair Airlines? Is Flair calling after nine. Is this our callback service?
Corey
3:33
service? Is this our
Zain
3:34
our callback service from the flight that you took from Surrey? Yeah,
Zain
3:38
exactly. That's good. Oops.
Zain
3:39
On two occasions over the past year, Alberta Premier Daniel Smith included links to a newsletter to a blog that a Canadian Jewish human rights organization says is a known source of anti-Semitic tropes and racist conspiracy theories. Her sharing of the blog's content was first reported by independent journalist Justin Ling, who's done a tremendous amount of work digging through Danielle Smith's locals account with videos, texts, comments that have been posted. Guys, this is less about the Velji rule, despite the fact that the Velji rule may see a bit of a cameo appearance. What the hell is going on, Carter, with Danielle Smith's apology tour? And I'm talking about this seriously now, because there is a good chance she'll have to apologize for this, just like she had to apologize for the vaccinated. And I'm going to to put apology in air quotes, just so those who can't see me apologize. Just like she had to apologize for the unvaccinated being the most discriminated group that she's seen in her lifetime. Just like she had to apologize for her commenting that Ukraine should remain neutral. We might be on the verge of another quote unquote apology. What the fuck is going on, Carter? Well,
Carter
4:44
Well, it turns out that no one did any opposition research during the leadership. And all of these crazy things that Danielle has been saying. And keep in mind that Danielle has been taking the position of the minority for as long as Danielle's been in politics. It started off with the property rights issues, the electricity issues. She was a champion of those issues when those
Carter
5:08
those things weren't even issues. The Southern Alberta, the government's going to take our land thing was a Danielle Smith Smith special. And she, she's been doing these types of things forever and, um, they're catching up with her. Uh, and keep in mind that when we beat her in 2012, it was in no small part because she wouldn't make her other candidates apologize for,
Carter
5:31
for, you know, saying that, um, you know, people in the Northeast are, are better led by, by white people or, and, and for not saying that, uh, you You know, gays and lesbians would burn in hell in a lake of fire.
Carter
5:44
She allowed those things to go on forever. It worked out to about eight days before she took any action. And maybe she's just learning that a quick apology is much better than allowing these things to go on. But, wow, she's been apologizing for most of her political career. And it's just wild to me that the people who ran against her for the leadership didn't make her apologize earlier.
Zain
6:07
Corey, last time we talked about this, she had given one apology. Now she's on the verge of potentially three quote unquote apologies, if not more. There's a running joke on Twitter around the over under apologies, which I will ask you at the end. Thank you, Dan Arnold. But Corey,
Zain
6:22
we're entering a really interesting moment. Let's talk about the honeymoon phase gone, doesn't exist for her, doesn't really seem to exist. Talk to me about the political calculus here as it relates to apologies. Can she keep making them and keep getting
Zain
6:38
getting away with them? Or what should she be doing at this stage, knowing that she's got a decade-plus history of commentary, to Carter's point, that has sometimes earnestly and other times perhaps controversially taken the minority perspective on several dozen issues?
Corey
6:58
well look this is this is unprecedented for sure her whole thing
Corey
7:03
thing here has been unprecedented a lot of different ways you talk about a honeymoon period unclear to me you get a honeymoon when you remarry your ex-wife like let's not forget danielle smith was
Corey
7:13
was a leader of a political party here in alberta she was a trustee she's in we
Zain
7:19
we have to wait hold on we have to go just hold Hold on, hold on, hold on, hold on.
Zain
7:23
Was it planned or unplanned? How long did it take you to write that down? Yeah,
Zain
7:28
That's not planned, but I gotta tell you something. It's fucking planned. This guy's just... You wrote
Zain
7:33
wrote that down. Just admit
Zain
7:34
This podcast, this is for the patrons. They need to see how the sausage is made. The patrons need to see how it's being made. How
Corey
7:40
You just don't have enough confidence in my wit, but let me... No, we don't, because I've seen it.
Carter
7:47
never been something we felt confident
Zain
7:49
No, no. Carter and I have to carry that part of the program, but everyone knows it.
Carter
7:53
Right, Carter? Yeah, everyone knows. He's got fucking
Zain
7:56
fucking nothing either. Okay, good. Thank
Corey
8:00
you, Carter. Thanks for attending.
Corey
8:01
So everything is unprecedented, including
Corey
8:04
including the fact that she didn't seem to go through... One of the reasons you're supposed to... One of the things we always say is a benefit of a leadership contest is it's like a nomination contest. It's trial by fire, right? If there's bad things those things are going to come out they're going to be brought forward you're not fully committed to the candidate it's like a try and buy yeah with candidates and when they rise to the top of the pack that's when the media lens gets on them that's when the opponents start doing their opposition research and and that's when you see what they're actually made of and what's in their past that
Corey
8:35
that clearly did not happen we talked about this last episode but the idea that somehow
Corey
8:40
somehow this was all missed by all of those ucp leadership campaigns by the media that we're covering it everyone including ourselves again to be fair but
Corey
8:48
this was not hidden this was not
Corey
8:50
not ancient and this was not hidden and it's all sort of out there but the treadmill that danielle smith now finds herself on is
Corey
9:00
is you know the different thing with the unvaccinated comment can i say the unvaccinated being the most discriminated against is that was that
Corey
9:07
that was when she was premier she made made the comment uh the others were things from the relatively recent past that came forward but
Corey
9:15
regardless she's on this treadmill where she's got a statement it's
Corey
9:19
it's a statement she stands by for the moment when she's made or makes in the moment the
Corey
9:25
the side that agrees with the statement let's set aside this one about the linking for a minute let's just talk about the first yeah yeah right so
Corey
9:32
so you you say the unvaccinated the most discriminated against certain group of people who believe that you're their hero for 24 hours and then you start walking it back then you're a villain to them and you've managed to antagonize both sides at this point same thing happens with the comments on ukraine everyone get over it was effectively the message that was delivered i think she literally said to the media in an interview they should focus on something substantive not russia
Corey
9:58
russia bringing us to the brink of world war iii but
Corey
10:00
but something substantive yeah right like the alberta sovereignty act yeah
Corey
10:05
you know and then
Corey
10:07
then she had to walk that back and if you looked at she shut off replies by the way very quickly on this apology that she posted yeah but if you were to look at the quote tweets on it they
Corey
10:18
they are a bit alarming they they show a lot of alberta that
Corey
10:24
you know i don't know i mean you know just from numbers you know if there's 10 of people who feel this way that in a province of four and a half million people that's almost half a million people but you
Corey
10:34
you saw people saying i
Corey
10:37
used to support you but i can't now how could you were right before you're not right now so again she's she's taking it coming and going
Corey
10:45
and um and now you're going to find um
Corey
10:49
like she's got to learn to fail fast i guess is the thing i would say like in the moment just be like that was bad i don't want to spend three days twisting in the wind to apologize i'm just gonna get it done now
Zain
10:59
you know carter here's here's one thing that seems to be obvious um
Zain
11:03
um you know aside from this alley velchi rule that we're talking about and sorry i just have now named yeah aside from the the alley velchi rule um i've changed my mind i don't want it to be named after me um this
Corey
11:16
this is you've had 10 years to figure that out
Carter
11:19
yeah i mean you've been spouting it
Carter
11:20
it together that was not like
Carter
11:23
voting it off so
Zain
11:23
so carter despite Despite if Daniel Smith will engage with the Ali Velshi rule in the next day or so. Here's the thing. We know a couple of things. Actually, in fact, we know one thing. This Locals account, I'm
Zain
11:34
I'm assuming, has been archived.
Zain
11:37
I'm assuming Justin Ling's got everything. I'm assuming others have everything. Yeah.
Zain
11:42
Including opposition parties, including others.
Zain
11:45
We know it's potentially a treasure trove.
Zain
11:47
And so there's two very simple questions that come to mind, Carter. If you're Daniel Smith, how
Zain
11:53
how do you kill this? right how do you make this die how do you get over this knowing that there's a mountain of content potentially and if you're the opposition parties how
Zain
12:04
how do you keep this alive uh
Zain
12:06
uh to me it's it's a very so and maybe it's you think the frame is more complicated than it but i was like for her it's how do i get over this how do i ensure that every second or third or fifth day i'm not getting hit with this and
Zain
12:19
and the other side of the equation how do we keep this alive let's start with with the part a carter yeah if you're daniel smith what advice are you offering her right now knowing that there's years of this sort of history you are throwing some options out you putting it out yourself are you how are you getting ahead of this are you getting ahead of this what are you doing steven carter i'm
Carter
12:36
i'm i'm for sure just getting uh one of the staff to go through everything and
Carter
12:41
and i'm i'm one of your own staff
Carter
12:44
everything that was posted on locals everything that she's tweeted everything that she said and i'm oppoing myself and then in In the next week, I'm
Carter
12:52
I'm making sure that everything is out because she's running in Medicine Hat Brooks. And I believe very strongly that
Carter
13:00
that if people want
Carter
13:05
want to be cleansed of previous mistakes, then they just get elected. You know, like someone posted back a photograph of Shannon Phillips, like probably from a decade ago, where it said no pipelines, no oil sands, and she's holding this placard. Well, the good people of Lethbridge have elected her two times since that photo first appeared. And that, to me, says that she's cleansed. She's absolutely cleansed. So that's the way that Danielle needs to approach this. She needs to get out in front of it. She needs to make sure that everything that she's ever said or done is known. And then once that happens, then she can be cleansed by the electorate,
Carter
13:45
even if it's just the electorate of Medicine at Brooks.
Zain
13:51
wait okay hold on cory no yeah
Zain
13:54
yeah i don't know yeah i don't
Carter
13:57
what do you mean wait
Zain
14:00
you're saying everything if she i still i still want to get into how okay because we talk tactics on the show she puts it all out there okay she she finds it all she puts it all out there she wheels uh she does the the raj sherman staple boxes on the uh steps of the legislature with all her own oppo research search for anyone to read. Okay. She puts it out there. Yeah. You're saying that if she gets elected and Brooks medicine hat, which she is supposed to win as the leader of the party. Yeah. That it's all forgiven.
Carter
14:29
As long as it's all known, then she gets to say that this was known. And the good people of medicine hat Brooks elected me anyways, which tells me that, you know, I've made mistakes in the past. I've admitted to those mistakes. And now that's, you know, the electorate has forgiven me. And now the media has to forgive me as well.
Zain
14:49
uh cory you are rubbing your eyes yeah you are shaking your head i'm so right and you guys are i'm assuming this just means violent agreement with stephen carter around how daniel smith kills this i
Corey
15:00
don't know how a guy can be so wrong on both facts and analysis let's start with the
Corey
15:05
the facts dare you you're referring to makes the rounds all the time that's not shannon phillips like so so what is she perched of this is there is not a photo that you're describing like this i know the photo you're talking about
Carter
15:16
about like shannon rachel's
Corey
15:17
rachel's not leaves in the background looks
Carter
15:18
looks like shannon not
Corey
15:19
not shannon phillips yeah
Carter
15:21
yeah that's an excellent point uh
Corey
15:22
uh so facts wrong um now
Carter
15:24
now let's get into analysis here
Carter
15:29
it was serving my purpose and i think we've
Corey
15:31
we've already apologize fast i think fail fast steven understands this this
Zain
15:35
this is good yeah
Zain
15:36
yeah good this is um
Zain
15:39
now go ahead go ahead we'll be
Carter
15:40
be recording this tomorrow like what the hell are we even doing here
Zain
15:47
on the price eyes eyes on the price cory eyes on the price how does how does daniel smith kill this how does she avoid uh the marshall ali uh
Zain
15:55
uh rule how does she how's she avoiding all of this so
Corey
15:58
so i do agree that's with steven that she should have her own team looking into her okay this is good that's an excellent idea politician oppo thyself okay
Corey
16:08
good thank you carter
Zain
16:09
carter carter you're getting a thumbs
Zain
16:10
thumbs up party where
Corey
16:11
where does carter get it where do
Zain
16:12
do you diverge from the cleansing
Corey
16:16
daniel smith it's not about it's not about cleansing it's you're not cleansed if you win an election it's not as though oh we can't talk about these things because they want to buy election in a rural alberta riding no fuck that that's ridiculous check nobody believes that it's the most absurd thing that's been said since his comment 30 seconds earlier that shannon phillips was holding this sign i think it
Carter
16:36
it was her it's
Corey
16:36
it's crazy i was told it
Carter
16:37
it was her jesus
Carter
16:39
jesus christ shannon if you're listening call me and tell me how right i am thank you shannon this is a radicalization
Zain
16:44
radicalization of steven carter this podcast just like his post-truth
Corey
16:48
-truth just throughout the podcast you're just it's good helped him make a point so he was just fine many people say
Carter
16:53
say that that was shannon phillips many
Zain
16:57
no carter that's not what you do you say my understanding is back to you you cory go ahead yeah um
Corey
17:02
um but once you know i'm just learning this now what's once
Corey
17:06
once you know what's coming you can brace yourself it's simple it's as simple as that right if you knew that these things are out there you can have the conversations so here's the thing this is true in negotiation this is true in a slow burning crisis you want to move as much as you can outside of the moment of maximum anxiety the moment of crisis you want to be using your rational brain to think through these things before they become a moment that is deeply emotionally charged and
Corey
17:33
and so for example if daniel smith's team had done this and had the oppo ready and said you know premier
Corey
17:39
premier you have a situation here where you made these comments about ukraine this is a province where one in ten albertans have ukrainian heritage by the way this is the census self-reporting they reported ukrainian heritage not russian heritage right on this particular
Corey
17:55
uh this is i mean this is is horrifying. And this is also political poison, right?
Corey
18:01
Well, maybe then you're not going to spend two days figuring out that you've got to back away from this, but you can do that rational analysis like, okay, if A, then B. If this comes up, then I say, I had ill-formed thinking at the time and it's evolved.
Corey
18:17
It's as simple as that. It's not about getting purged
Corey
18:20
purged through the fires of an election. Why
Carter
18:22
Why would you put
Carter
18:22
that out in advance though? If you know that it's coming and you know know that you're going to get hit with it,
Carter
18:27
right? Why wouldn't you start saying something along the lines
Corey
18:29
lines of, how would you do that? So I do agree with that. I do think like if for a moment, like the Ukraine one in particular, because that's a different example, right? The Ukrainian one, you
Corey
18:40
you can make three statements that contradict that, that are more recent. So when somebody comes forward, you say, yeah,
Carter
18:45
yeah, I was wrong at the time,
Corey
18:49
further common sense than where I've really cleaned that up, I've clarified that, and my
Corey
18:54
my thinking was ill-formed. You know, you're ready for it. You've prepared. And yes, you can take those softening steps that you're talking about as well.
Corey
19:01
Can you guys help me? Basically, I'm
Zain
19:02
I'm right. Help me understand. Help me understand how someone takes out their own trash about themselves. Well,
Corey
19:08
I've done it a few
Corey
19:09
Let's start with... You get a 7,000 word piece. Yeah, and you lead the reporter
Carter
19:15
reporter where you want to go, see? Oh, good. And by leading the reporter where you want to go, you get the story that you're... You know, not the story you want, but a much better story.
Zain
19:26
later stephen carter justifies his profile continuously carter if you're advising daniel smith let's say you got you chose a strategy let's we know there's all this stuff what are you telling her to do tomorrow well
Carter
19:37
well first of all i'm triaging it i'm saying okay what's the most what's the most dangerous stuff the ukrainian stuff is obviously the most dangerous so
Carter
19:44
so i'd be you know i'd be saying you
Zain
19:46
don't know that we don't know what else there is well
Carter
19:48
well if it was better Justin would have put it out already right
Carter
19:52
this is the thing I mean Justin's just putting it out willy-nilly now like he's he's just finding stuff and he's just creaming her like uh I would think that this is you
Carter
20:01
you know like if there's anything bigger than this I can't imagine him sitting on it but who knows maybe I'm wrong but
Carter
20:08
but if this is if this is the thing that we're trying to worry about today I would have had her issue a statement about uh President Zelensky and the bombs that that were going off in downtown Kiev two weeks ago or a weekend ago or whatever it was. Or the, you know, all of a sudden the escalation to using Iranian drones over top of Ukrainian
Carter
20:31
Ukrainian city or Ukrainian cities. I would have thrown that out there. And then that is the statement that is the statement waiting,
Carter
20:39
waiting, you know, that's the real statement. This is how I really feel. That earlier point of view was an ill-informed top of my head. I was trying to fill minutes on a, on a broadcast. I was terribly informed. You know, I should have apologized at the time. I really should have. But you know, we in live radio, we move on. If you have a podcast, sometimes you say things that aren't, you know, it's super smart, but you move past, you move on.
Corey
21:05
did I say? No, I think actually that's fine.
Corey
21:09
That is reasonable now, but I did want to draw a distinction between that, where it's, that would go through and say this is a policy statement that is just not outside or whatever and what you started us with which is the idea that there's linking to a a blog an anti-semitic blog yes
Corey
21:27
now to be to be really clear the
Corey
21:30
the the things she linked to were not directly anti-semitic as far as i understand all right that's
Corey
21:37
it seems like it was within a broader context and And certainly, it calls into question motives and all sorts of things of the author. And media
Zain
21:44
media diet and all those things that
Corey
21:45
that you could talk about. Yeah, absolutely, 100%. No disputing that. But a slightly different thing there, right? And again, it feeds a bigger question of comments that Danielle Smith herself has said that Jason Markusoff reported on and that I think
Corey
22:00
think Justin Ling also reported on where she was on a podcast saying that her
Corey
22:04
her staff tell her she doesn't have a crazy radar. Well,
Corey
22:07
she has said it, and now this seems to be somewhat validated by activities that have come since.
Corey
22:13
I actually think that this
Corey
22:15
this most recent one is quite shocking in some ways, but also in other ways, the easiest for her to say, I had no idea. I'm sorry. I would never have posted that if I had known the author had such abhorrent views that were so questionable. right
Corey
22:30
right and so if it's anything but the easiest thing in the world for her to deal with the problem is much much deeper than i thought like if she finds she can't find those words yeah the problem is much much deeper
Zain
22:43
cory let's let's use this one as an example right so she she linked to something that that led to uh to
Zain
22:52
to this to this newsletter uh to this blog how would you have have gotten ahead of that story and i'm sorry i'm making you guys go so deep tactically but i'm curious like how does one do this right carter you kind of talked about leading the journalist okay i get that but like let's use this one as a prime example if you knew this was going to be an issue how would you have done this on your terms well
Corey
23:14
well i'm curious about carter's thoughts my first reaction is i don't get ahead of this one i get ready to immediately say i had had no idea that's horrible i never would have linked to it um
Corey
23:24
um you get whenever that appears you've got that canned you've got that ready to go right and why don't
Zain
23:29
don't you why don't you get ahead of this one what is i
Corey
23:32
i guess the thing i'm struggling with is what is getting ahead of this let's
Zain
23:35
let's it's yeah that's a i agree like
Corey
23:37
like the challenge becomes you
Corey
23:39
you say hey listen after you were all banging on me for my previous posts i went through and i really went i guess actually Actually, as I'm saying it, this is the most unreasonable thing to say. I ask people to really go deep in this and understand where
Corey
23:53
where else I might just need to educate myself better about these things where maybe I've let it sounds crazy again. Like I've gone from thinking it was OK to crazy again. Can we move? But then ultimately, can
Carter
24:01
can we move past Corey's ill-informed idea and we can just jump straight into mine?
Carter
24:06
how my point is,
Zain
24:09
would you have gotten this? I'm how would you have gotten? Yeah. How would like would you have had her meet a Jewish person? Like, is that what you've been getting so close to the Ali Velshi rule? like what would she have been doing here? Like
Carter
24:18
Like how would this have worked? Like disowning your own role is very upsetting for everybody listening to the podcast. It's the Velji role. Okay. So let's stop doing that. But what I would have done is I would have taken the opportunity of the Ukraine, right? So the Ukrainian comment, the answer for the Ukrainian comment was I was ill informed at the time I
Carter
24:37
I moved past that. And I made, so I made a mistake. I apologize for making that mistake. And if I, if we were still doing this in a smart way, you know, she was getting ahead of the Ukrainian thing. When she's getting ahead of the Ukrainian thing, start laying the crumbs for the next problem.
Carter
24:54
I'm aware that many of the things that I said on my podcast or many of the things that I said on my radio show or
Carter
25:03
or even links that I've posted or information that I've shared, oftentimes, I'll be honest, it was to grow audience. And that's not the best thing that I could have been doing. And some of the links that I've shared and some of the information I shared, now that I'm able to look back on it,
Carter
25:18
it was really irresponsible and I'm sorry for that.
Carter
25:22
And you can see it in this Ukrainian issue.
Carter
25:24
As I've grown more interested- No way does that
Carter
25:27
No way. Do you think
Corey
25:27
works? No way. Because then it's like, which ones do you think were irresponsible?
Carter
25:30
irresponsible? Because the others only work. Wow, you're just so angry. You're just so angry. Why are you so angry?
Zain
25:34
That's an inconsistency in behavior that I think opens up to a much larger
Carter
25:40
Carter. would invite the
Carter
25:42
the audience to remind them that i'm always right and they
Carter
25:46
don't do live polls
Zain
25:46
polls but if if we were you know
Carter
25:48
know there's a live
Zain
25:50
live audience you would be the guy you'd
Carter
25:51
you'd be the guy that ran against
Zain
25:53
against saddam hussein you'd be like the white guy they'd be like oh i'm new here but i want to rule you guys and saddam would win there's
Carter
25:58
there's a massive audience watching right now and they are telling us i'm watching the screen oh there's another one steven is so right wow Wow, that Carter,
Corey
26:08
he's a genius. That's not there. That's not there. That's just disparaging our viewers. Oh.
Zain
26:13
that's what we do
Corey
26:13
do here, isn't it?
Zain
26:16
made to disappear the next day after that election. Okay, go ahead, Corey. What?
Zain
26:21
What is, why is Carter wrong? Oh, that's
Corey
26:24
that's upsetting. Usually I don't take
Zain
26:26
take sides, but that sounds like that
Zain
26:27
that was an insane idea. That was so good. That's an insane idea. You know what, you guys. I usually let you go, but that's a bad idea, man. You guys. I'm trying to help you. You
Carter
26:34
You guys are so wrong.
Zain
26:36
okay cory cory why why is it an insane idea explain to the listener and then what is what
Corey
26:41
what is it that you do well
Corey
26:42
well steven first of all it's just ukraine not the ukraine and oh i know that too you know what i
Carter
26:47
i know that these
Carter
26:49
i had been and sometimes in the podcast i say things that are incorrect and it
Carter
26:53
it was an accident and i'd like to apologize to the listeners from ukraine and also from uh just to everybody else who knows better i do know better i've made that mistake before and And I feel bad about it. I've also said some other things on the podcast that were a little ill-informed. And I was wrong about that as well.
Corey
27:12
What do you think was ill-informed now that you bring it up? I'd love to
Carter
27:15
to hear what you think
Carter
27:17
Well, I mean, right off the top, I can think-
Corey
27:19
- And keep in mind, no matter what you say, if it's not on the list and I find it later, I'm going to tell you, you told me that wasn't ill-informed. You went through things and you didn't list it as an ill-informed thing. Well,
Carter
27:27
Well, I mean, I'm sure there's- I haven't done the research yet. I'm sure there's many. I'm sure there's many.
Carter
27:33
to do his own research. Oh, interesting.
Corey
27:34
wants to do his own research i have okay steven carter
Corey
27:38
i need to do my own research before i get back to you on vaccine question okay oh
Carter
27:44
oh you guys i've never said
Zain
27:46
said you see carter with this uh with this impromptu role play that has just ensued why it's a terrible idea do you know i'm just for your benefit you know what first
Carter
27:56
rule of politics i'm doubling down i am still right and you guys are both wrong you know cory
Zain
28:03
we've understood why carter's wrong thank you for that um yeah and this
Carter
28:07
this is why we don't do wednesdays it takes me so long to recover from sundays yeah
Zain
28:15
cory what is or what is the what is the tact here it carter's isn't it but what is the culture i
Corey
28:23
it's exactly what i said it's immediately saying yeah that That was bad. I never would have linked to it if I knew. You got to keep in mind, I was not a big media organization. I was a blogger. Somebody posted something. I read a very narrow bit of information about it. And if
Carter
28:40
if I'd known, I never would have done it. Is this why you had to leave QR-770, Daniel?
Corey
28:44
Frankly, it's not any different than if I were to retweet somebody who made a comment.
Carter
28:48
comment. Because you wanted to
Corey
28:49
to retweet things that weren't
Carter
28:50
weren't true. Is that why you had to leave QR-770, Daniel? danielle am
Zain
28:55
am i am i understanding that by with
Zain
28:57
with both of your sort of uh scripted unscripted role play that she's screwed either
Carter
29:03
yeah she's like this is not good
Corey
29:05
well listen i actually look
Corey
29:07
look i mean this is her biggest problem right now is this is just such a pattern of judgment about media diet as you brought up and yeah
Corey
29:14
what she listens to and how and why um
Corey
29:18
and you know i for one i'm just shocked that you would find pro-russian messaging
Corey
29:23
messaging at the same time you find anti-vax messaging at the same time anti-semitic right there's
Corey
29:28
an issue things all live in the same sewer she's
Carter
29:30
she's never been on the side of an issue where she's not on the side of the 20 right
Carter
29:34
and so if there's 20 she's always championing that under underdog and in this particular case that means going against the grain and supporting russia because that's just the way her mind works but
Zain
29:46
that sounds simplistic but i want to actually examine that for a second is that who daniel smith is carter to you at the end of the day like absolutely like deliberately or
Zain
29:56
or conviction like that is where she
Carter
29:57
she believes that there's a minority underclass that is being um we that is being subjugated in some fashion and she will always stand up for them and it can can take really good forms too it can take the it can take the uh you know the the side of uh championing uh gay rights right she will always fight for the underdog she will always fight for the the person who she fears may be getting trampled upon it's
Carter
30:24
it's not all bad it's just mostly bad especially now this
Zain
30:33
she's been labeled a libertarian some have she's not a libertarian a populist yeah well what is she to you is what is is there a label for for what this is for who she has been over the course of the last 10 years so i ask you particularly someone who's kind of worked with her like uh bougie
Carter
30:48
bougie uh libertarianism some sort of libertarianism that also wants to have you know paved public roads and the canada health act like it's just she
Carter
30:57
she it's just her own brand
Carter
31:00
she it's her own brand of lunacy that she calls her libertarianism but it's really not because it's inconsistently applied.
Zain
31:08
Corey, you know, back
Zain
31:10
back to the premise. Locals,
Zain
31:12
a fire hose of information, perhaps a treasure trove. We don't know.
Zain
31:16
How do the parties interested in kind of keeping this alive, keep it alive?
Corey
31:23
Well, I don't think they really need to do anything except themselves prepare for how they're going to react to some of these comments if
Zain
31:29
if they come out.
Corey
31:31
certainly at this, the media is going to do the work. The critique is going to matter more if it comes from the media because it will seem less partisan.
Corey
31:39
And you don't want to inject yourself into it too deeply. And I think Rachel Notley did a really good job with the Ukrainian one, which is like, I'm glad to see the apology. And then went on to say, I think this is a bit of a troubling pattern. I can't remember exactly what the tweet said. But effectively, exactly, I think what I would recommend in terms of it, which is make it about the ladder it up to the bigger attack.
Corey
32:02
Don't dwell on whether the apology was correct. That's not an 80-20 issue. That's just that seems like sniping and let
Corey
32:10
let the media do the lift. Let the media do the lift. That's what I would be doing at this point. And look, if the media misses it,
Corey
32:18
hold it for the campaign.
Zain
32:20
carter yes and what what else what else would you add to cory's in terms of keeping this alive
Zain
32:26
because the one thing you don't control to cory's last point is pace and timing right it's not going to necessarily be optimal for you per
Zain
32:33
per se what were your thoughts on this i'm
Carter
32:35
i'm not sure i wanted to continue you
Carter
32:40
well i know where you're going with this
Carter
32:42
this i know where he's going with
Carter
32:43
is all the wrong time this might actually
Corey
32:44
actually take her out yeah
Carter
32:45
yeah i mean this is like so So say, for example, I mean, she's running in the by-election in Medicine Hat, Brooks. She's, you know, she's already unpopular, blah, blah, blah. And all of a sudden she wins by a point or two. Or worse, she loses by a point or two.
Carter
33:03
What's then, right? And so now all of a sudden maybe they regain their senses and elect a leader that can beat the NDP.
Zain
33:11
can I actually ask you, what is then? It's a hypothetical, but what happens if she loses? i don't actually i've never if a leader who wins then wants to get their seat like she doesn't have to leave does she carter like she doesn't have to run again if the but she but but what what happens to her she's
Carter
33:26
she's following very very closely in the footsteps of liz trust at that point and that's that's a that's a different topic uh hopefully for today but um you know what on
SPEAKER_00
33:38
on earth is going on in the house of commons
Corey
33:44
going this is that's different different clip same guy but different clip from what you want to be oh okay
Zain
33:52
that's good that's what we call a teaser i
Carter
33:54
i think that if she if she loses she starts to fly go down so fast and
Carter
33:59
and i'm not sure that she makes it to the election and
Zain
34:02
and cory any final thoughts on what carter was heading into here like do you feel like there's a possibility like point blank is
Zain
34:11
daniel smith going to be the ucp candidate in the next election the
Zain
34:15
the ucb yeah it
Corey
34:16
it still seems insane to suggest otherwise because this you know the crazy thing it's been eight days it's been nine days if you want to give credit for like the day she was sworn in since
Corey
34:27
since she was sworn in she has not been premier for very long the ucp has been doing their caucus retreat this week there
Corey
34:33
there haven't seemed to have have been any public flashpoints that have come out of that everybody is going to behave themselves a little bit i think everybody has to know in the ucp caucus that
Corey
34:44
if they're not on this boat they've got to build themselves another boat it's not as simple as just trying to ouster because they will destroy the party and they will leave no viable vehicle in order to combat the right
Corey
34:55
like their choice is not take over the nd or the ucp at this point the choice is do
Corey
35:01
do we think we can burn it it down and build something else i i firmly believe that because i actually think that if the
Corey
35:06
the ucp changed their leader now albertans
Corey
35:10
albertans would say what a fucking clown car yeah this has been for the last bit and then we're
Zain
35:15
we're gonna leave that segment there on the muhammad ali velchi rule and we're gonna
Corey
35:19
gonna move it on to our next
Zain
35:20
our next i don't know what you're talking about our next segment alberta hold my beer cory
Zain
35:28
let's play the clip play the clip there's no better way to to introduce what i want to talk about then this it
SPEAKER_00
35:36
has been a night of astonishing scenes at westminster with reports of jostling manhandling bullying and shouting outside the parliamentary lobbies in a supposed vote of confidence in the government the deputy chief whip was reported to have left the scene saying i'm absolutely effing furious i just don't effing care anymore before before he resigned along with the chief whip but we've just been told they have now officially unresigned the home secretary has however definitely gone in short it is total absolute abject chaos what
Zain
36:12
what the actual fuck if
Zain
36:14
if you think alberta is crazy cory hogan six weeks of liz distrusts as the conservative prime minister of the uk and she is having what
Zain
36:25
what a nine put in a nine point approval rating in the polls she's down by 33 points to starmer of labor in in in the polls on a head-to-head she's had to let go of her chancellor she let go of her home secretary who said if i'm not gonna fucking leave this office for i'll piss in my well that's
Zain
36:45
but yeah Yeah, but there's
Corey
36:45
there's so much drama today around the Home Secretary. You had people resigning
Zain
36:49
resigning and unresigning per the clip. You've got a, I don't want to call it a tabloid, but you've got a news network saying, what will last longer, this head of lettuce or Liz Trask? They've got a 24-hour watch on that head of lettuce. That's pretty corny.
Zain
37:09
What the fuck is going on in the UK? And I don't mean to give you the details, but what the fuck is going on in the UK? okay, because we think Alberta might be the craziest jurisdiction right now for the worst nine days. I mean, this is absolute pandemonium right now. And I do want to try to link it a bit and talk about what's going on in politics, but give me your top line take, what the hell's going on?
Corey
37:28
it is pandemonium. And I think one of the things I, it's hard not to draw parallels. There are some similarities in situations here in Alberta, in British Columbia, in a lot of places where you are having a leader who is selected by a membership. Now, in the UK's case, the caucus winnowed it down to two, but the bulk of caucus was with Rishi
Corey
37:52
Rishi and Truss was number two. But then the membership heavily went for Truss. And she instituted a policy or she ran on a policy. Let's start here. She ran on a policy that was impossible.
Corey
38:05
So not actually possible to do without breaking the United Kingdom. them and she won and then she attempted to implement this policy and lo and behold it was impossible and the markets rebelled everything seized up people were deeply worried about liquidity in in like uk markets the pensions were in dire straits and um she
Corey
38:26
she had to walk it back and she walked it back first with her chancellor walking back things and then she walked back her chancellor and
Corey
38:32
she had a you know the chancellor in the uk is the equivalent of our minister of finance yeah
Corey
38:38
and now it just continued like from there it was all writing on the wall in a certain way she her popularity plummeted to levels basically never registered in modern polling in the uk instantly
Corey
38:51
instantly i mean overnight kind of stuff and
Corey
38:54
and it's just gone down from
Corey
38:55
from there it's just gone down from there you already mentioned nine percent approval um
Corey
39:00
uk conservatives are There are only a couple of points up on the Lib Dems right now, which are the third party in the
Corey
39:07
United Kingdom. That's not supposed to be possible.
Corey
39:10
But in some ways, to
Corey
39:12
to answer your question, if I want to do it more succinctly than I've done it here,
Corey
39:16
what do I think has happened?
Corey
39:18
Lots of chickens have come home to roost.
Corey
39:21
the way we choose leaders, and
Corey
39:23
and this superficiality, this supreme overconfidence and simple solutions that have polluted our politics, turns
Corey
39:31
turns out we still live in a world of consequence. And these consequences are now front and center.
Zain
39:37
Carter, when you see what's happening in the UK right now,
Zain
39:40
Corey's mentioned, and that's a good piece of analysis, Corey, around a lot of converging factors. Is there one, Carter, between what Corey's mentioned or an additional factor that sticks out to you that doesn't, I shouldn't say explains what's going on, because there is an unprecedented nature here, But that you really want to focus on around what's happening in the UK and perhaps in slight parallel what might be happening here in our home province. I
Carter
40:04
I think that Corey's
Carter
40:05
Corey's right to look at the confluence
Carter
40:10
confluence of everything. You know, like this isn't just one thing. And I just want to add one additional piece to this. So I don't want to undermine him as easy as it is to do. I want to build upon it. Oh,
Corey
40:24
Oh, that's nice. What
Carter
40:25
What I'd like to build on is that there is a history in political parties of this kind of blatant
Carter
40:32
blatant sexism, I want to say, where they elect a female leader when shit's falling apart and they kind of hand over this absolutely screwed up entity at that particular moment. So
Carter
40:47
So that the woman, you know, they look
Carter
40:49
look like they're being very progressive. They look like they're bringing in, you
Carter
40:53
you know, these leaders. But the cupboard's bare. There are no ideas. Corey mentioned Brexit.
Carter
41:01
You know, if they hadn't gone through with Brexit, Liz Truss's ideas may have been available to her. But they weren't available because of all the lies that they told to get to Brexit. Right? Right. So this is this is other people's decisions coming home and screwing over Liz Truss as much as Liz Truss is also a person who is responsible for the situation that she finds herself in. But
Carter
41:24
But I just wanted to add that piece about this kind of systemic sexism that it does exist within political parties that we've seen time and again. And I think, you know, in Canada was the Kim Campbell example where Brian Mulroney drove the place into the ground and
Carter
41:39
then she was elected leader. and led
Carter
41:41
led the Tories to their worst electoral defeat in history.
Carter
41:45
And I think that that's kind of where they're going.
Zain
41:48
Corey, jump in on that. That's an interesting narrative that Carter has introduced here, the underlying sexism, and frankly, sometimes overt, to Carter's point. Jump in on that.
Corey
41:59
Yeah, well, I think that there's some truth to that, but I view it a little bit differently, which is not to say I excuse anybody or that it's any better. I think when political parties are really down, particularly governing parties, and they're looking to make a change, they
Corey
42:14
they look for novelty, right?
Corey
42:16
And a lot of people who see the world in very superficial ways, see things in terms of gender or race, start saying, well, wouldn't it be nifty? Wouldn't we look cool if?
Corey
42:27
And in their case,
Zain
42:27
they had two versions of novelty in this most
Corey
42:31
where you argue with Sunak and Truss. Yeah, arguably. And interestingly, I think to Liz, trust is great credit when you look at the great offices of the UK. So the UK system, ours is very similar, but there's a lot of history there. And there's four what they call great offices, right? There's the prime minister, there's the chancellor, which we've already talked about, there's the home secretary, and there's the foreign secretary.
Corey
42:50
And there wasn't a white male amongst any of them. And,
Corey
42:54
you know, the other
Corey
42:56
other three, I believe, were all visible minorities. And so, you
Corey
43:00
you know, to her great credit, she, you know, she really did
Corey
43:04
did seem to be wanting to elevate, you
Corey
43:08
you know, people who in the United Kingdom have not always been, you know, at the center, but have sometimes been at the margins in terms of demographics. graphics but
Corey
43:15
yeah i think that quite often political parties start looking for that you know that's that stopping power that star power that gee whiz look at us look how much we've changed we've changed to the point where you
Corey
43:27
you know there's a visible change it is a woman or it is a you know it's a person of color or it's another equity deserving group and
Corey
43:37
know in a way i almost Almost like
Corey
43:39
like so often these
Corey
43:40
these individuals and these groups are passed over and
Corey
43:43
it's nice to see the opportunity, but Stephen's right. They tend to be willing to be more loose with that opportunity when they think it
Corey
43:52
And that's a challenge.
Zain
43:53
You don't think that's what happened with the UCP, do you? Like, I'm not trying to force a parallel here, but I just want to clarify that
Zain
44:00
know, that's different. But there is something to be said about another point Corey brought up, which is caucus support. I
Carter
44:08
the caucus support has long been overvalued.
Zain
44:14
We've talked about it, at least as it relates to winning. But in situations like this, do you think it's overvalued?
Zain
44:21
What you're seeing in both Alberta and in the UK? Yeah, it
Carter
44:24
it is because they don't do the work to sell the memberships and get people to vote for their leadership choice. I don't know why that is. I don't know if it's maybe they think that, uh, they don't have to, um, you know, I mean, I'm sure they think that they're, they're leaders in their own right and they will be able to convince their, their
Carter
44:44
their followers to, to follow.
Carter
44:46
Um, but it, it doesn't quite work that way. And the
Carter
44:50
the work that needs to go into selling memberships, the work that needs to go into making sure that, you
Carter
44:56
you know, the people follow you, uh, often is skipped over by the MLAs. So, or I'm sorry, the MPs in this particular case. So this is, to me, this is a great example of yet another failure from MPs or MLAs, electeds, if you will, to actually follow through on what needs on the work. work. Um, because
Carter
45:23
because I think that they've, they've long ago stopped working, uh, because we have, we've made, we've
Carter
45:29
we've made everything so, uh,
Carter
45:33
clean now, right? Like they don't have to do, like it all comes out of the prime minister's office. They're not expected to work. And this is just one example of them, of them not doing that work.
Zain
45:43
And Corey, you were talking about this in the UK K, that Sunak had the caucus support or the support of the members, more so than trusted, but amongst the membership of, which by the way, was less than 200,000 in a country of, I'm going to ballpark 60-ish million, less than 200,000 people was the voter base or the voter pool that was able to vote in that race. They voted for trust in that final vote.
Corey
46:08
What do you think, we've
Zain
46:12
as it relates to it being a factor get to getting elected but as a factor to stay
Zain
46:17
stay elected to stay the leader what
Zain
46:20
what do you think right now uh
Corey
46:23
uh well it's obviously not underrated and yeah what i would say is the united kingdom conservative party the conservative and unionist party the grand party that it is in
Corey
46:34
in the past decade for sure has really trained its mps to be like just the most vicious pack of jackals that will take you down in a moment, right? Or big
Corey
46:44
big things and small things, you name it, and they're going to be in the press yelling and complaining about things. But I think this is where we need to make sure that we identify some of the differences in the system and not be lazy about it.
Corey
46:55
Because two really important ones here that
Corey
46:58
that I think help us in our analysis of our own leadership systems here. The first is the way candidates are chosen in the UK.
Corey
47:06
Really the party chooses right the party sort of interviews you and makes you the candidate we've
Corey
47:11
we've talked on this show about how in canada we're this weird hybrid between the british system and the american system and that we have these nomination
Corey
47:17
nomination contests the way we do and
Corey
47:19
and so what i find interesting is even though they don't actually like they're not necessarily beholden to their local constituency in the same way i don't like i don't want to oversimplify there are all sorts of connections and if you piss off your constituency that's a problem but
Corey
47:33
but they if anything seem to be more free to speak out, right?
Corey
47:37
right? So despite having that stronger party
Corey
47:41
party whip in some ways. And then
Corey
47:44
on the other hand, when we talk about membership and the limitations of one member, one vote and how Canadian membership systems are often like these sales drives, right? And
Zain
47:52
And there was no sales drive in the UK. No
Corey
47:53
No sales drive in the UK.
Zain
47:54
UK. Three months before to have voting
Corey
47:55
voting rights. Exactly what I'm saying. So it doesn't necessarily,
Corey
48:00
they weren't elected by the same groups or for the same reasons. And in Truss' case, Truss
Corey
48:06
Truss was a Johnson loyalist. And so it kind of makes sense that the party that Johnson created would be fairly supportive of Truss. Kind of makes me think Johnson himself probably could have won that vote, by the way.
Corey
48:18
Whereas Danielle Smith really came from the outside. So while they both dealt
Corey
48:22
dealt with and are dealing with, neither of them is in the past tense, but while they're dealing with caucuses that were not necessarily, they
Corey
48:29
they weren't their first choice, a
Corey
48:32
a lot of the dynamics around the party are materially different.
Zain
48:37
Corey, the last thing you said about the UCP, I'm going to get you to jump on this and just clarify for me. Tell me if I'm paraphrasing correctly in our last segment. You said that if the UCP get rid of Daniel Smith in
Zain
48:51
in this period before the next election, that it's the end of the party. They're building something new.
Zain
48:57
Is that pretty much fair to say?
Corey
49:00
Yeah, I believe that's the case. I don't know how they recover. cover.
Zain
49:03
In an environment like the UK, where they're almost trained to take down their leaders at any slight, at any sort of sniff of bad polling or lack of viability, or this is not going well for us, as in what's happening right now for Liz Truss, who's been the prime minister fucking six weeks. Do
Zain
49:21
Do you feel like there's something to be said about the nature of political parties and how they last? Because what I find interesting is Corey's commentary that if this were to happen in Alberta, getting rid of Danielle Smith right away, that we might think of a new conservative movement or something new would have to emerge? Sorry,
Corey
49:36
Sorry, Zane, I should clarify, I think for this cycle. For this cycle, sure. Yeah, they'll get crushed in an election is really what I'm saying.
Zain
49:43
saying. What do you think happens in the UK, Carter? Do you feel like that the conservatives here could get rid of Liz Truss and they'd have another leader right away, and that they wouldn't pay much of a penalty? I guess the question at the heart of it is, what penalty do political parties pay for swapping out leaders or for sheer incompetence for picking their leaders, so to speak?
Carter
50:03
Oh, I think they'd be in desperate trouble. I really do. I think that- You think so, hey? I think it'd be really hard for them just to simply say, oopsies, do overtime and
Carter
50:13
and go back and say, yeah, that was a tremendous mistake on our part. Sorry. sorry um i think instead we'd be you
Carter
50:21
you know the the difference here also
Carter
50:25
also is the length of time to the next election too like um danielle has to face the electorate next year i mean theoretically she could put it off for a year and go to traditional five-year cycle or not a traditional five-year cycle but we always have the ability to go to maximum life yeah um
Carter
50:42
um she could go that that long, but I think that she would be, she'd
Carter
50:46
she'd really be in trouble at that point. She'd be going against so many of the norms of the, um, uh,
Carter
50:52
uh, of the party that, that she'd, I think she'd just be, you
Carter
50:56
you know, they, they, they wouldn't allow it.
Carter
51:00
you know, for me, Danielle's kind of in more, more
Carter
51:04
more trouble, but the, the conservatives in the, in the UK could conceivably get rid of Liz Truss, go back and make another choice and almost get a do-over, provided
Carter
51:17
provided that they actually did something they haven't done for, I
Carter
51:21
I don't know, how many years? At least five years, which is provide good government that people can count on without falling into the trap of lying to the people about things that the people want to hear. And I'm specifically referring, of course, to Brexit, which to me is the first big lie that wound up costing them David Cameron and has really pushed them into this
Carter
51:47
this situation where they can't govern effectively because they've forgotten that the basis of good government is truth.
Zain
51:55
Corey, the fundamental question here, and I want to call this the Hogan rule. So bring the insight, okay? Here's the Hogan rule and it's coming right now. What
Zain
52:03
is the penalty that political parties pay for selecting incompetent leaders? Are political parties kind of like startups now where failure is a badge of honor? That you're like, you know what? It's fine. We just dispose. Because we're so leader-centric, we'll just get rid of this one. They're not good. We'll just use a slight honeymoon period and we'll watch. Oh, you don't like that one? We'll get rid of this one. Are we entering a political culture of that sense where loyalty to your leader and swappability will just be just a new mainstay if political brands don't necessarily have to pay the price?
Corey
52:36
I don't think this is new. And I think it's interesting that you bring this up. I've not really thought about it before, Zane, but it's not as though we
Corey
52:45
talk about the liberals being Being really bad because they elected Dion and Ignatiev. Like that's just not in the zeitgeist. That's not in the conversation. But even more recently, we don't really talk about what
Corey
52:58
what it means that Aaron O'Toole was elected leader and stumbled or what Andrew Scheer did in
Corey
53:04
There is kind of this light switch moment where we just say, new
Corey
53:08
new leader, I guess we'll see how the public reacts to it. And in this leader-centric model, I think it's doubly so. People are less concerned with the party brand and more concerned with the brand of the party, which is the leader.
Corey
53:22
that's really interesting to me. Well,
Zain
53:23
Well, say that again, the party brand or the brand of the party, which is the leader.
Zain
53:27
So then, not to challenge you per se, but why does that not apply to the UCP if they were to say next week, sorry, vote of confidence, Danielle, you're gone. We're going to swap out with someone
Corey
53:38
That's an excellent question, but I think it's really about timelines because they wouldn't necessarily have the time to have that leadership contest and pick it and not make it look somewhat illegitimate or like you didn't give Daniel Smith a shot. You got to keep in mind, Zane, I'm not even necessarily saying that moderates would punish the UCP. I think if Daniel Smith was turfed like that, they
Corey
53:58
they could lose 15, 20% of the vote to
Corey
54:01
to a wild rose version. To the right side of it. Yeah. And
Corey
54:05
And that's enough for you to lose the election and probably enough for you to lose your party.
Corey
54:08
Here's another thing though, I want to throw at you as a crazy notion that could occur in both jurisdictions. Play it honest. Wouldn't necessarily be wise in either. But when I start thinking about who next,
Corey
54:19
who could actually maybe... Oh, yes.
Zain
54:21
yes. I think I know exactly where you're going. Okay. You might be scooping a question I had, but do it, do it. It's fine. It doesn't matter.
Corey
54:28
I'll be curious if this is it, but what if Boris Boris Johnson comes back. What if Jason Kenney comes back? Both of these are the individuals who had the mandate. It could be seen as more democratically legitimate if the party needs to make a last minute change.
Zain
54:43
Carter, let's sit and observe that for a second, because that's exactly where I wanted to go in the lightning round. So I'm glad Corey mentioned in here.
Zain
54:53
that's that's crazy, right? Like, that's how it's going to feel like that's crazy, right? It's crazy.
Carter
54:58
No, it's not like crazy, but like not not inconceivable, right? Not crazy, like we can't think about this. I mean, yeah, it's crazy in that, why'd you get rid of the guy if you're just going to bring him back anyways, would be an interesting question to watch, you know, the high foreheads of the wild rose, or I'm sorry, the UCP actually
Carter
55:19
you know, he, Jason
Carter
55:21
Jason Kenney, I don't think thinks his political career is over. Boris Johnson. Do you believe that? I do believe that. I think that he thinks that they're, you
Carter
55:31
you know, the people will rue the day they got rid of Jason Kenney and they will come begging for him to come back. And you know what? They
Carter
55:41
I don't think it's probable, but
Carter
55:43
but I do think it's possible.
Carter
55:47
And, you know, that would be really fun. I mean, really interesting to watch. Do
Zain
55:51
Do you think it's more likely with Bojo in the UK that he makes a comeback? No,
Carter
55:56
I think that it's more likely that the government collapses than they wind up in another general election
Carter
56:02
than Boris Johnson coming back.
Zain
56:06
And Corey, your thoughts on this. You introduced it. Round us out with your thoughts on this, and then we'll kind of move it on from there.
Corey
56:15
So it's tough, right? What they're finding in both,
Corey
56:18
what they will find in both cases, if there's a new leadership, is that there's going to be a sense of illegitimacy for whoever comes next you didn't give trust a chance are
Corey
56:28
are you really going to go are we now ready for rishi or like is sunak just screwed or
Zain
56:33
is sunak just kind of being like fuck this i'm young i'm just going to wait this out for another generation of conservatism fuck this noise or
Corey
56:40
or one election at least and let somebody else go down with the show as
Zain
56:44
as we just talked about you know the the period doesn't even need to be a generation anymore it's the etch a sketch of you know the brand could be toxic today and viable tomorrow so to speak just based on
Corey
56:54
the the uk conservatives are so far along i mean it's funny it's six weeks of trust but there's been at least two weeks of reckless speculation about who might be the next leader at this point yeah serious speculation as to what might be possible lots of names out there all of them have the challenge of you
Corey
57:10
you didn't give her a chance and now we're back and it like it's so caucus is just going to veto the party membership it's like okay we we caucus have given you our two candidates no that one's not working for us we're going to go with another one right like Like that's, that's going to cause problems in all sorts of different ways for them. Boris Johnson maybe doesn't have that problem because he'll
Corey
57:29
he'll have the membership and he'll have, well,
Corey
57:32
well, if the caucus can just get on board the caucus, that's what he lost previously. With the UCP, it's almost the opposite. Jason Kenney always had the caucus, but he lost the membership. That's why he decided he couldn't necessarily go for it. But
Corey
57:45
it's not hard to imagine a world where things get –
Corey
57:51
where there's almost – well, let's put it this way. We've joked on this podcast about the moderate Jason Kenney. Yeah.
Corey
57:58
He's sort of been scrubbed by the fact that now somebody is more to the right, like much more to the right. And what would be interesting is in a general election, if Albertans feel that way. Like, well, you know, I'm trying to balance here in the, you know, between competing priorities in the middle here. And it's
Corey
58:17
it's almost as though the wild rose exists, but can't take votes in that
Corey
58:22
You've got the right, which was Danielle Smith, and you've got the left, which is Rachel Notley. And I'm going to vote in the center with Jason Kenney. I mean,
Corey
58:29
this is all ridiculous,
Carter
58:30
I say. It's lunacy when you say it out loud. Yeah.
Corey
58:35
But let's imagine a scenario where Smith is
Corey
58:38
is ousted and the party goes to Taves and says, Travis, you got to take us through this next election.
Corey
58:44
You're going to have the same problems of legitimacy, the same challenges, and there's not a lot of ways out of that box.
Zain
58:50
It's 4.27 in the morning in the UK right now. And guys, this lettuce is not doing well. I'm watching it on the Daily Star. This lettuce is not doing well. I will also mention for those that have not seen this, there is a nice chat function in the side where I'm suspecting and just based on my cursory reading, 90% of the people are getting high and watching this lettuce. There's a lot of marijuana deals going down on the side, a lot of smoking lettuce, a lot of 420, Ron Paul 2012. That's also a comment on there. But guys, the lettuce is not is not doing well upsetting
Carter
59:27
upsetting um so yeah
Zain
59:28
yeah it is upsetting there is liz now there
Zain
59:30
you go so in parallel we're gonna leave that segment there move it on to our final segment our over under and our lightning round that was quick tonight carter that's good is liz truss the conservative candidate in the next general
Zain
59:44
general election in the united kingdom yes or no no
Carter
59:46
no she may be a conservative candidate in a specific riding but she will not be the leader the
Zain
59:52
the leader the leader the leader of the party carter says she's
Corey
59:58
i'm worried i'm worried by the time people listen to this she might be yeah she's hanging on by a thread here if you look at the odds makers in the uk basically
Corey
1:00:07
basically you don't even she
Corey
1:00:09
she they don't believe she's gonna make it to next you if
Corey
1:00:12
you bet she is going to uh survive or survive to next year you get like five
Corey
1:00:19
five to one odds or something like this Do we
Zain
1:00:20
we do that? I think we do that. I think we should bet on that. No. There's
Corey
1:00:24
There's one. I think it's like 30 to 1 or something.
Zain
1:00:26
something. Why when we've got all of our
Zain
1:00:27
money tied up in Bitcoin?
Zain
1:00:28
wait, wait. What's the 30 to 1 that we
Corey
1:00:30
we can bet on? 30 to 1 that she runs in 2024, if I'm not mistaken.
Corey
1:00:34
That seems like some pretty nice action. I think
Zain
1:00:36
do it. Carter, do you like the line?
Carter
1:00:37
You know what? I've got all my money in Bitcoin. I can't afford it.
Zain
1:00:41
Corey, find us a nice parlay. Find us a nice parlay to get that to. Oh,
Corey
1:00:45
Oh, a nice parlay. You know what? Let's use the, she doesn't make the year. Yes. Just a little bit of juice. parlay that with something else that's assured you well uh
Zain
1:00:52
here in alberta parlay with something in alberta we got odds makers
Zain
1:00:55
makers we can find a bookie in
Corey
1:00:57
in the uk that
Zain
1:00:57
that will probably want something to
Zain
1:00:58
to do here okay he's probably got a local guy right based out of lethbridge he's like i know i know all the action in alberta politics we
Zain
1:01:05
we just pair it up with a nice parlay cory i like it reasonable to me gambling
Zain
1:01:09
gambling gambling's legal ask cabbie he's always telling me ask every celebrity ask jamie fox and ask wayne gretzky they're just selling me beth 365 guys okay uh
Carter
1:01:17
uh cory good good story cory
Zain
1:01:20
cory is boris johnson will he ever be the leader of the conservative party again yes or no no oh
Zain
1:01:25
oh carter boris johnson wait will he ever be the leader of the conservative party again yes or no well
Carter
1:01:29
well obviously yes because cory said no but no here's the reason yeah give me give me rationale yeah
Corey
1:01:35
yeah i'm not sure he wants it because you know how much reporting there was about how poor he was when he was prime minister and how he couldn't make ends
Corey
1:01:42
meet and he had all this child support to pay and
Corey
1:01:44
and he his salary wasn't big enough and
Corey
1:01:47
and well i think that he
Corey
1:01:49
he would like to have the power again i actually think he probably wants to settle some debts in a very literal sense yeah
Carter
1:01:57
take care of some
Zain
1:01:59
here we go jason kenney leader of the united conservative party again is it going to happen year in a day
Corey
1:02:07
that's that's not gonna it's
Zain
1:02:09
it's insane it's insane yeah it's insane okay good uh it's almost as insane as carter's theory uh no it's going first of all are you gonna come
Carter
1:02:15
come back to me like because it's gonna happen i am coming i'm i'm coming back to you you're gonna get a say you're
Zain
1:02:21
you're you don't need to wait for me what is it carter yeah
Carter
1:02:24
yeah he's gonna get a chance not only is he gonna get a chance he's gonna be leading the uh the ucp in 2024 write
Carter
1:02:31
write it down she's
Zain
1:02:34
she's unbelievable okay oh my god Can we parlay that with some Ron DeSantis action? No, some, you know what? Some Jeb Bush action. Let's do some Jeb Bush.
Carter
1:02:43
Jeb Bush is going to be the Republican nominee in 2024.
Corey
1:02:51
He has a better chance of being the Democratic nominee.
Zain
1:02:58
I'm going to talk about caucus paintball next time. If you don't know what that means, just wait till Sunday. Final question, Stephen Carter, we'll do it. thank you to dan arnold over under on 20 over under on 20 okay we're at two maybe on three if the ali velchi rule happens the next couple of days but over under on 20 the number of quote unquote apologies we will have from danielle smith between now and election day in 2023 over under on 20 carter under
Carter
1:03:26
under on a technicality which
Carter
1:03:29
she will package a number of them into one
Corey
1:03:37
that's a good technicality yeah that's smart yeah yeah over
Zain
1:03:40
over under on 20 the number of i think 20 is high but i'm going with it over under on 20 the number of daniel smith apologies that we will see between now and
Zain
1:03:49
and election day of 2023 okay
Corey
1:03:53
let's be real here it
Corey
1:03:54
it is october 19th
Corey
1:03:57
19th october 20th greenwich mean time yes
Corey
1:04:00
yes if we prefer uh
Corey
1:04:02
uh we have 4
Zain
1:04:03
34 in the morning in the uk the lettuce is not doing well yeah keep going november
Corey
1:04:06
november december january february march april six months and then we're in the election yeah
Corey
1:04:21
you think it's effectively it works out to about one a week i guess is what i'm trying
Corey
1:04:26
that's like over the christmas break too like she's she's like i'm sorry that i said christmas was a pagan holiday and anybody who celebrates it is evil you
Corey
1:04:33
you know like there's like
Corey
1:04:37
that's one a week she's not going to survive to the next election if it's over so
Corey
1:04:41
so she won't have the opportunity to get to over so i'm going to go with under
Zain
1:04:46
didn't say she has to be premiered the whole time no
Carter
1:04:50
i think i think that Dan just overshot it.
Carter
1:04:56
It's not like he does numbers. I'm not using Dan's number. This is a number I just threw out. No, he actually put that number in, didn't he? 23? I think he had a much higher number, Carter. I went with 20.
Zain
1:05:06
Well, this is coming from the guy that thinks Jason Kenney is going to be the next premier of Alberta. No, I said he'd
Carter
1:05:10
he'd run for the
Zain
1:05:10
the conservative party. We're going to leave it at that. That's a wrap on episode 10 and 9 of The Strategist. My name is Zane Belgey. With me, as always, Corey Hogan, Stephen Carter. Thanks for bringing your A-game, Carter. We'll see you next time. I was on fire