Transcript
Zain
0:01
This is Strategist episode 1001. My name is Zain Velji. With me as always, Corey Hogan, Stephen Carter. Guys, I'm
Zain
0:09
I'm back and I need to ask you, why did you not record more episodes while I was away?
Zain
0:15
I feel like you used the excuse that I used, which was, just to be clear, the passing away of my father. You guys now use that as an excuse to not record any episodes. So Carter, what was going on here? Well, what's going on? You can't use that as cloud cover. Only I have that excuse.
Carter
0:33
Corey and I were shaken up.
Carter
0:36
for you like a brother.
Zain
0:38
Okay. Well, now you made it weird. This is a weird energy. By the way, I have to say, uh, uh, thank you for that. We love you
Carter
0:46
you and your family, brother. We always have. You know,
Carter
0:49
honestly, you know that. Thank
Zain
0:49
Thank you to both of you for the very kind words on the podcast. Thanks to Corey for actually
Zain
0:53
actually attending the funeral. funeral uh it was very sudden and um you
Zain
0:58
you never get enough time and so yeah still processing it
Zain
1:03
but yeah that's what it is and i would imagine brother it is what it is um don't
Carter
1:07
don't fuck up the intro again okay i
Carter
1:09
i won't fuck it up you know what because
Zain
1:10
because there's a certain thing that that gave my dad energy so in tribute to him let's talk about it carter uh the green party you know he loved talking about the green party he saw so
Zain
1:19
so much hope for the green party somebody even say that you You know, he left at the right time because he doesn't want to know what happened with the Green Party this week, Carter, because we've talked about the Green Party a lot. We've had enemy Paul. Of course, they they build her as the the leader that would make a breakthrough. And then, of course, as soon as she didn't make that breakthrough, they will by starving her of any resources or any sort of campaign strategy. They they turn on her. Elizabeth May said, listen, I don't want anything to do with it. She now is proposed to be a co-leader of the party. And now we've got some other drama happening in the Green Party, Stephen Carter. I'll save the Green Party stuff for our final sort of segment or over under in our lightning round. But just quickly, your hot take on the Green Party as it stands right now, a hot topic on this podcast and one that I don't want to just shelve simply till the end, although that is when we'll discuss most of it.
Carter
2:14
A steaming pile of shit, Zane. um they are a steaming pile of shit at this stage and it bugs me uh because you know cory's indicated in the past that this was going to happen and i was pissed off there was no way i thought it was going to happen
Zain
2:28
you know what that
Carter
2:30
interesting you are right and i'm wrong again okay
Zain
2:32
okay so i wanted to save this till the end but carter you've you've forced my hand um cory you oh fuck i
Carter
2:38
i screwed up again on
Zain
2:39
on episode 1000 we did we did talk about this we did talk talk about the green party there was an extensive conversation uh we rarely bring up clips uh and proof of of of predictions but cory do you have something for us here on the green party because there is a reason i talked first he does it's
Zain
2:55
it's his prediction fucking useless i knew it's
Carter
2:57
fucking prediction he's got
Corey
2:59
yeah when when i predict something correctly you can bet it's going to be on the board oh
Zain
3:03
oh my god he's got too much time cory go ahead play it for us sure
Zain
3:09
doesn't have it he doesn't have it he has nothing this show is a fucking disaster the best
Carter
3:18
is the best show we've ever done was my dad
Zain
3:20
dad the glue that kind of kept this thing together was he was his presence just he was his fandom for the podcast keeping this together the
Carter
3:29
the only reason we did this oh
Zain
3:31
oh my god do
Carter
3:32
do you want to try that again or i don't
Zain
3:34
don't think he does we're gonna move it on you know we're gonna move it on to carter we're gonna move it on to to just some smaller news uh some news that didn't make any headlines we're gonna move it on to our first segment our first segment king pierre the second that is correct steven
Zain
3:49
steven carter pierre polly ever over the weekend at the shock convention center in in ottawa has taken the reins of the conservative party huge victory carter i think there's no other way to put it um And we have Pure Poly Ever obviously getting a certain percentage of the vote. We can discuss that in a second here. But the stat I want to focus on, Carter, may not be the one you want to focus on because you'll probably get back into your prediction game.
Zain
4:16
But, Carter, the stat I want to focus on, 330 out
Zain
4:21
of the 338 ridings going to Pure Poly Ever. Have we seen anything like this before? for? Start here for us in terms of perhaps a bit of campaign history or how to analyze
Zain
4:31
analyze the dominance that the Polyev campaign showed here. And then we'll get into some of the strategy questions going forward.
Carter
4:38
Off the top of my head, and I didn't do any research into this, but off the top of my head, I can think of only one person who had this kind of dominance. And that's Justin Trudeau in the Liberal Party and the dominance that he brought forward. I think that he would have won a similar number of seats against or uh of ridings against martha hall finley one would think given that i worked on martha's campaign that i would remember it better but i have compartmentalized that sucker away um so
Zain
5:05
so you know the i wonder why the truth is why
Carter
5:09
you know i mean pierre did it uh justin's done it they're both they're both juggernauts um Um, uh, the difference is that Pierre's, you know, ascension is happening now. And, uh, Justin's happened what,
Carter
5:23
what, uh, eight years ago now, seven, eight years ago. Like it, it, it's a long time. So it's a very long time into, in the political environment.
Zain
5:32
Corey, what sticks out to you in the, in the Paglia victory? Is it the margin of victory? Is it, as I mentioned, the seats right now, uh, or the writings I should say, um, not the seats, the writings that he had shared dominance over. Is it the charade number? and how low it was, winning only eight out of the 330. What kind of sticks out to you when you see the results and now the data from Saturday's results?
Corey
5:58
It's hard not to just be awed a bit by that top-line number. Carter's right. It's kind of not usually seen in a contest that is seen as competitive. Obviously, with the benefit of hindsight, we can say this was never a particularly competitive race. And we talked a bit about this as it was going on. We thought that the membership as it existed supported Pierre Polyev. Pierre Polyev sold the most memberships. This is in some ways not shocking, but the scope of it is. The idea that Jean Charest, who was seen as a credible candidate by many, including myself, not that I thought he was going to win per se this weekend, only got 16% of the points and, as you mentioned, only got the majority or plurality of the points in eight of the 338 ridings is pretty shocking.
Corey
6:42
shocking. And so the overwhelming victory doesn't leave Pierre Polyev's critics a lot of places to go. There's not a lot of natural homes. Any talk of a moderate conservative alternative, I think, has to be perceived as deaf, not just because of how Charest has acted since and said, we're going to stay a conservative and we all got to stick together, but also because, like,
Corey
7:07
like, what would you do with that? You've got the points that represent 15
Corey
7:11
15% of the ridings. Because I'll tell you something, Lewis at 9% of the points, that's not a moderate solution. Atchison got 1%. So you throw the 1% on the 15% or 16%, you're
Corey
7:26
you're at 17% of that party. That's not enough. And so I think it gives them a pretty free hand. And it's interesting because we haven't seen a conservative party with that kind of sway for a very long time. You
Zain
7:37
You know, Carter, there's one thought that kind of lingers for me, which is, we've talked a lot in the past about why coronations for a political party are not necessarily a good thing, right? You don't really get the battle of ideas. You don't get, you know, a road tested candidate, in
Zain
7:55
in the sense of tactics and
Zain
7:56
and strategy. You miss out on quite a bit if you're having a coronation. To
Zain
8:01
To me, this was a really interesting race because there
Zain
8:04
there was this big question hanging at the beginning of it saying this is a soul-searching race for the Conservative Party. But at the end of the day, Carter, this kind of seemed like a coronation disguised as a contest in the sense that the winner got a very large, strong mandate, but they also got to road test a lot of things and kind of make some headway to the gen pop. Do you agree with that? And do you kind of see that as kind of they had their cake and eat it too? How do you kind of see this as the frame of that question as a benefit or not so much for the Conservative Party and where they stand right now? Have they answered their top line question of their soul searching?
Carter
8:42
This is actually the benefit. This is why we say we don't want to see coronations. This is why we say we don't want to see people just put their hand up and automatically receive the nomination. Like at
Carter
8:53
at the beginning of this, did anybody think that Did Pierre Polyev was going to sweep the table the way he has? I mean, he did better than Stephen Harper.
Carter
9:00
Well, then Astronik did better. You know, she had like in the mid 20s or low 20s.
Carter
9:06
Clement was just around nine. This is big. You know, this is a bigger victory in many regards by
Carter
9:15
by Pierre than any other party. And it makes a difference because Pierre now has the mandate.
Carter
9:22
Pierre has the mandate. Now he can shape the party in his own image in a way that Andrew Scheer and
Carter
9:28
and O'Toole weren't able to.
Carter
9:33
So this is this is huge. And because it wasn't a coronation, the
Carter
9:36
the rest of us, the you know, us, the pundits, the people who aren't, you
Carter
9:41
you know, in the party, we have to stand up and take notice.
Carter
9:44
It is it is required of us not to poo poo this victory.
Carter
9:49
There is no shortcut like the Green Party is trying to find.
Zain
9:54
Corey, talk to me about this. From your perspective, is this coronation perhaps disguised as a contest? And where do you think it kind of puts the conservatives right now? Have they answered their top line question that they were looking to several months ago?
Corey
10:08
Well, I think it's like a rom-com where it turns out it was the love in front of you all along. I don't think that the journey took them far from the start. The soul searching was pretty modest and pretty canned at the end of the day. But I want to say that the size of this victory tells us exactly one thing, and it's an important thing, but it tells us exactly one thing, and that's the hold that Polyev has over the Conservative Party of Canada. It does not mean he will win a general election. However, that hold he has over the Conservative Party is something that his two predecessors did not have, and
Corey
10:40
and his two predecessors, lest we forget, did get pluralities of the vote. They got more votes than Justin Trudeau did in the last two elections. So, if you go in with a strong party, one that's not biting your back as you're moving into it, does that potentially offer you just that little bit extra you need to get to government? Well, you know, I would say even on its surface, maybe. You also have got a Trudeau government that's looking a little bit more tired by the day. Of
Corey
11:06
course, there's this countervailing force of he managed to hold the party because he went to the right. How will Canadians feel about that? I have my own theories about that. But what we're going to see, I think for the first time in quite a long time since the Harper days even, and lest we forget, it's not as though Harper had a stranglehold on the party. This was after uniting two
Corey
11:25
two factions, the Reform Party and the PCs, forget all of the names like Canadian Alliance and PCDRC caucus and stuff in between.
Corey
11:35
He had to act a little bit more gingerly and a little bit more gently than Pierre Polyev has to act at this point.
Corey
11:41
It's not a stretch to say this is the strongest mandate a conservative leader has gotten from their caucus and their party since
Corey
11:48
since the 80s, maybe longer. And
Zain
11:51
we've seen to your point, Corey, why that matters so much, especially in the stretch in the red period leading into final days of an election to have the full force of your caucus behind you to not be, you know, as O'Toole may have done, catch them off guard with his centrist shift, so to speak. And I suspect a lot of them
Corey
12:10
them are going to
Zain
12:11
to be wanting the strident, the high energy, the sometimes annoying Pierre Polyev that won this race to perhaps continue that game plan going forward. Before I talk about that, what Polyev's game plan is, how the prime minister should be digesting what he saw over the weekend, Carter, I want to come to you for a very specific question. Because yesterday was an incredible mandate for Pierre Polyev. Yesterday was also another proof point, one
Zain
12:38
one might argue, around
Zain
12:40
around where progressive conservatives stand in this country.
Zain
12:45
Where do they stand in this country, Carter? Carter, we've seen PCs, barring maybe Doug Ford, right,
Zain
12:50
right, been handed their ass in many jurisdictions, in many different races, and have either, you know, sucked it up and joined the more rightward force or have called themselves politically homeless. What does this kind of mean to you in terms of the progressive conservative movement? Or is that moniker just dead now, Carter?
Carter
13:13
Oh, it's gone. It's gone. I mean, you bring up Doug Ford, like in some fashion, he was the bearer of the progressive conservative movement. He
Carter
13:21
He also was kind of one of these conservatives
Carter
13:23
conservatives that went further to the right. Now, being
Carter
13:27
being gone now doesn't mean that it's gone forever. It was also gone when Mike Harris was the leader of the Ontario Progressive Conservatives. It was also gone when Ralph Klein was
Carter
13:38
was the leader of the Alberta Progressive Conservatives. This is not the first time we've lost progressive conservatism in Canada.
Carter
13:47
Is it the last time? You know, does it ever bounce back? You know, I don't know. My crystal ball is a little bit broken today, kind of like our soundboard. So it's hard for me to know how things are going to unfold in the coming years. But for now, the right, you know, the
Carter
14:07
the center right is dead. Long live the far right.
Zain
14:10
Yeah. Corey, to your point, you know, do
Zain
14:13
do you see room in this country to organize progressive conservatives right now? Or was this just a proof point that kind of proved it once and for all? Because there is going to be a movement that says, like, most voters are in the middle, Trudeau's marching to the left, Pierre's marching to the right. What the heck, right? Like the mat still plays out in our favor. Do we break away from another party? Like what those calls are going to come, whether they come this weekend or not, they're going to come in the the coming months. They're going to remobilize, lick their wounds and say, but the match should be in our favor. The bell curve of voters are still a five in the middle.
Zain
14:46
What do you think this Polyev mandate says to that? Do you feel like it rebuffs it once and for all?
Corey
14:53
Well, I don't want to overly simplify things, but in some ways, we're getting the parties we wanted to get. We've changed our election finance laws, so it's all small donors, which means you've got to push small donors buttons. It used to be, now it was sleazy in in many ways, but there was this moderating influence of Bay Street money, big money that said, we want you to stay kind of in the calm and steady middle. Similarly, we've gone from leadership contests that had delegates get selected largely based on their tenure and their
Corey
15:22
knowledge of the party in their local area. And they got to go forward. And even the ones that were elected were somewhat moderated by the fact that there were a bunch of delegates that were simply appointed based on all of the party positions they've held, the grandees. So they they ended up doing horse trading and picking more moderate leaders as they went along. Well, we don't do that anymore.
Corey
15:41
take extreme positions to get money and we take extreme positions to get voters. And then are we all sitting here shocked when extreme
Corey
15:47
extreme candidates win and benefit from that? I mean, we
Corey
15:51
we shouldn't be that surprised. And this is maybe a good example of the best
Corey
15:57
best laid plans, things going awry, unintended consequences. Because yeah, our Our system is now very much beholden to candidates who can capture the more extreme views of the world. Because as much as we talk about Pierre Polyev having this massive conservative party, and I'm not trying to diminish the fact that he sold just a shit ton of memberships, really it is, there's
Corey
16:17
there's probably still more people in the quote unquote middle. Now that middle is shrinking all of the time because voters are also moving to the polls. There's a bit of a wag the dog thing here where they start to reflect some of those more extreme positions, which we've unpacked in the past. But, you
Corey
16:34
I guess, is there a place in the middle?
Corey
16:37
Where would the money come from, Zane? I don't know, because it doesn't sound like I'm moderate as hell and I'm going to cut a check for $1,000 is particularly compelling.
Corey
16:45
Yes, you could create a political party that has all of these delegates, but you're going to be shouted at that it's gatekeepers and it's undemocratic. And if the only thing that's going to differentiate you from the Conservative Party leadership that just ran is that you're more elitist, God help you, you're doomed.
Corey
16:59
Right? So unless there's a catalyst, unless there's a swing back, unless there's something more than just sour grapes, we lost the Conservative leadership, so we want to go somewhere else. I don't see an option in the middle coming forward. Is there a hunger? Is there a thirst for it from Canadians?
Corey
17:15
I don't know. I mean, I think that there's a lot of people in the middle, especially organizers who are feeling homeless, who would like to think there is. But we're seeing pretty high turnout relative to elections that were in the 90s in those more moderate milquetoast times. And I don't know. Is there actually a clamoring for this? That's the other question. Let's not put it all on money and voting systems.
Zain
17:36
Carter, there's a couple of things that people have been looking for from Pierre Polyev the entire time, the last seven months. One was, it's going to happen. It's going to have to happen. It's the pivot, the big pivot. Oh, my God, he's going to pivot. There's no way this is viable. let's talk about that the other thing that they're looking for is the other p
Zain
17:55
is how well is he going to do patching up because
Zain
17:58
because he ran a pretty scorched earth race against charre like he kicked charre's ass but he also ran a scorched earth race he didn't kind of you know do the standard i'm ahead state's been like you know he sharp elbows till the end sort
Zain
18:11
sort of thing from his speech that you heard let's talk about the patching up how well did did he do on that front? And how important do you think that is going to be as a core
Zain
18:20
strategy to patch things up with the 15% that Charest represents, and might be more, might be less, but that progressive, conservative, moderate middle that will find a home in his party? Do you think he did well enough to patch it up on Saturday? Or what more work needs to be done there?
Carter
18:38
I think he's nodded towards it, but I don't think he needs to do anything more than that, to be honest. You know, Charest was being the kindly gentleman that said that he would stick around to help the party as he did in the past. Well, you know, I don't recall seeing him in a lot of stuff in the past. You know, this was as much as he was a welcome voice for me in this race. He was a bit of a surprise, I think.
Carter
19:03
And it wouldn't surprise me at all to see him just simply return to his world of private business and make money like his family obviously seems to want him to make.
Carter
19:17
Pierre has done what he's supposed to do. He reached out, he did the things.
Carter
19:22
Did he do the best that's ever been done? No, but he doesn't need to. He won with a
Carter
19:28
a huge percentage of the vote, almost 70% of the vote.
Carter
19:31
Everybody has to fall in line. There is no So there
Carter
19:35
there is no second group to conform, and Pierre's
Carter
19:38
Pierre's done what he needs to do, but it won't matter because he didn't actually need to do it.
Zain
19:45
Corey, did he need to do it? Does he need to do anything on the patching up with his competitors, and whether it's his competitors directly or the ideologies that they represent of conservatism, those
Zain
19:55
those might be interchangeable. Does he need to do anything on that front?
Corey
20:00
it's it's easy to be magnanimous when you've won by such an overwhelming margin which he did and i thought his statement was fine you know there wouldn't even be a canada without jean sure very funny
Corey
20:12
funny when you think about the tone that he's taken throughout the rest of the campaign you know nailing him for huawei talking about the corruption i was just a liberal and then he thanks him for the very country that he's looking to lead existing i mean I mean, I
Corey
20:26
I guess they're not mutually exclusive, but tonally it's wild, right? And it is one of those things that I will never, never
Corey
20:34
never be that enthused about. The hard pivot on election night, we're all on the same, we're all on Team Canada, we're all on Team Alberta, you know, I'm just happy people put their hats in the ring after, you know, the nastiest possible things being thrown at each other for 28 days. It just reminds me how much it's all bullshit theater. And for those reasons, I'll never be that comfortable with it. But he played bullshit theater exactly as it's supposed to be played. He said the things you're supposed to say when you're elected leader. And that wasn't necessarily a given based on how he acted throughout the campaign. So insofar, do I think that he's going to have a hard pivot? No, but he has shown like the soft pivot. He's shown that he knows how to perform and do the things that you're supposed to do when you're on the big stage and Canadians are looking at you tuning in on the, you
Corey
21:20
you know, Conservative Party live, you
Corey
21:22
you know, stream for the first time.
Corey
21:24
And that in itself, I think, is a data point that we should observe and we should think about. He didn't need to, but he did. And the fact that he did, I think, was as much for that general audience that we were were just talking about, you
Corey
21:37
you know, that moderate middle.
Corey
21:39
I mean, it wasn't for anyone in the room, based on the temperature of the room when various names were said, he didn't need to do that for the room.
Zain
21:46
Carter, you know, I want to talk about what the liberals need to do here, both perhaps even tactically and certainly messaging wise. But before I get there, let's hit on what Corey mentioned here very quickly. And I may be taking in a slightly different direction where or
Zain
22:00
you mentioned that throughout the campaign, Birbaliev had this one tone. And then on victory night he had his other separate different tone that's also kind of akin to how he talked about issues carter he had like this very sort of like hey canada i'm going to talk to you about the things you care about and he would nail it on housing perhaps nail it on passport offices two examples right um throwing out there but then he'd also had this like conspiracy arm to him which was like wait i don't know when the video started i don't know what this was going to be was this going to be a knock against the wef for for running our life or was this going to be a a solid case against municipal zoning regulations on housing. And I think for a lot of people, they're seeing that as perhaps the soft spot, the soft tissue in pure polyeth. Would you agree, Carter, that this guy's got these two different wavelengths he's operating? Or do you see it the other way, saying that, no, this guy actually has the flexibility to operate in two different wavelengths and own both of them at the same time, and they're in his coalition? Where do you kind of see that right now as a strategy lens? Is it a weakness or is it a core asset?
Carter
23:05
If they do that, they're walking straight into the trap that the Democrats ran into with Donald Trump. You are asking the electorate to make a reasoned and rational decision. Electorates don't make reasonable and rational decisions. Wish that they did, but they don't. And
Carter
23:22
And so while we pretend these games, we pretend that this is the way it's going to go, it
Carter
23:28
it isn't actually the way that it's going to go.
Carter
23:30
So if you don't define your own election question, if you don't define, you know, you ask what the liberals need to do, the liberals need to make this a question about things that Pierre Polyev can't win on. That needs to be what they need to do. too. They can't simply say, I can out-Pierre Pauliev this guy, or I can beat this guy on his own questions. I can beat this guy on his hypocrisy. I can beat this guy on his conspiracy theory.
Zain
23:55
to be clear, you're saying that's all a mistake?
Carter
23:57
It's all a huge mistake. We've seen that time and again. I mean, again, I'm inundated
Carter
24:02
inundated in Surrey. This is going to be the election question. This is going to be the election question. They're all telling me what the election question is. If it is that question, then we lose. right? If we don't define our own election questions in a campaign, if you do not define the question, you will not get the outcome you want. And I think that that's the problem of the Liberals. The Liberals in the last two elections have barely, barely squeaked by on a better election question than everybody else.
Carter
24:32
This time, if they try that, they will go down to defeat and we will have Prime Minister Polyev.
Zain
24:37
Corey, I want to get into the Liberal side a second, but I want to do ask the question that I asked Carter about these two lanes that Pierre is operating in, this what affects you on a daily basis lane, and then this quasi conspiracy theory lane.
Zain
24:50
Is this a liability that he can operate in these two worlds simultaneously dip in and out as he chooses week to week, day to day? Or is it an asset that he can kind of use these two lanes as a stitching together of his coalition? How
Zain
25:02
How do you kind of see this right now, top line, before we get into what the liberals need to do?
Corey
25:09
it is um it's something i've been thinking a lot about and there's this evolved theory of campaign that that we've discussed where maybe the modern candidate just needs to fill the pantry say all of the things for all of the audiences and put them forward and
Corey
25:22
and just make the assumption and it seems to be based on you
Corey
25:29
you can target these things and you can make your people tune out the things they just don't want to hear or they might not be inclined to believe believe because there's so much bullshit
Corey
25:37
bullshit being thrown around anyways, it becomes pretty easy to say, maybe that was taken out of context. Maybe they're just amplifying one quote and there was a very legitimate or reasonable cause that he said these things. I think that we live in such deeply cynical times about the attacks that politicians and political staffers make that they just carry so much less currency and that just feeds the overall shamelessness that we've got here. And make
Corey
26:02
make no mistake, Polyev is very good at filling that pantry. He has done all of his crazy shit about Bitcoin and the World Economic Forum. And he's
Corey
26:12
he's talked about the
Corey
26:14
the convoy in a bunch of ways that are valuable for all sorts of gradients of conservative and even moderate Canadians who are maybe a little uneasy about some of the steps that the government has taken. But
Corey
26:27
But he's also made this Middle Canada message that I got to tell you, I think is going to have immense resonance. He got the quote he wanted out of his speech. I've got it right here. It was pulled verbatim
Corey
26:38
verbatim in almost all of the coverage I read about it. We have a government that doesn't provide the basic services it is supposed to while coming up with complex and damaging programs. Canadians don't need a government to run their lives. We need a government that can run its own passport office.
Corey
26:55
damning and that is pointed and that is going to find an audience. And if the rest of this stuff doesn't matter, if we live in a world where that stuff matters less, then
Corey
27:04
then he's got better
Corey
27:05
better than a shooter's chance here. I think that there's an awful lot that he's got going for him right now.
Zain
27:11
Carter, you know my whole game is preamble, so I'm not going to let you get into it right away. But I want to talk about how you would sell a prime minister today in Justin Trudeau about what happened over the weekend? So if you're in the Liberal Party, how
Zain
27:24
how would you honestly give them an assessment of what happened? Would you say, sir, this is a dominant victory, we need to act now? What would your message be if you were the truth teller to prime minister today? What would you tell him? You'd have your 9pm call. Before we get into what the party needs to do, how would you break this news to a guy who at At his cabinet retreat says, by the way, guys, I'm sticking around. And now he knows who he's sticking around against. What's the message you would want him to know? What's the thought process or the trajectory that you'd want his mind to start operating in now that this is a done deal with such sheer dominance over the weekend?
Carter
28:05
I think that it would have to be, how are you going to, you know, if you're going to be the prime minister four
Carter
28:11
four years from now,
Carter
28:13
you know, after the next election, which
Carter
28:15
which is apparently what you want then
Carter
28:17
what are you willing to change what
Carter
28:19
what are you willing to change about yourself the what you're willing to change about the people who are around you because
Carter
28:24
because right now if
Carter
28:26
if you're not willing to change then
Carter
28:28
then my question is whether or not the people will just simply ask for a change instead
Carter
28:33
instead you know ask for a different change right
Carter
28:35
right because that tends to be what happens it's what happened to stephen harper um you know stephen harper's government government ran out of, out of some movement, you know, out of some steam, but he was still there.
Carter
28:48
you know, the, these types of things, you
Carter
28:50
you can't have Jenny Byrne, you
Carter
28:52
you know, Jenny goes back and away and comes back ready
Carter
28:55
ready to, to lead Pierre's
Carter
28:59
totally understanding the moment that we're here.
Carter
29:04
um, you know, I fear that the prime minister doesn't understand the moment that he's in and he's going to need to make some significant changes if he can thinks he can just win because he's always won um
Carter
29:16
you know everybody wins until they lose and that loss at this particular moment is going to be fucking brutal
Zain
29:23
wins before they lose steven carter that's just not even true yeah most people just lose do
Zain
29:29
you cory do you want to get a some merch going on the
Carter
29:32
the store it's a fucking great line line that's a great line it's also money
Carter
29:36
money is the trend you
Zain
29:36
you know what you guys
Zain
29:39
before they lose it
Corey
29:44
it's bad and it's going to be on a t-shirt soon um cory
Zain
29:47
cory answer how would you break how would you break this news to the pm and because you know the job of an advisor or strategist is not to be like hey sir this happened it's to mold that into a theory or or an idea, or something that you would want to create action about or for, Corey, what would that be for you?
Corey
30:07
First of all, this is not news that needs to be broken to him. You make it sound like it's in The Godfather when he's like, why don't you tell me what everybody around me already knows? But
Zain
30:15
But you know what I'm trying to say. You have an ability to frame how this is being processed right now.
Zain
30:22
There's a lot of noise. If you're a senior advisor, how are you allowing and framing this to be processed. I think that's actually exactly the point here, Corey.
Carter
30:31
Yeah, I'm on your side, Zane, except when you pick on me a bit. Yeah.
Corey
30:37
Carter, you're so fair weather. I'm upset with you now. Yeah,
Corey
30:44
talking to the prime minister about what comes next, I think that Stephen has made a couple of points about the faltering. Like, what do you want to do? Why are you even still here? or is the kind of rude version of what needs to be said
Corey
30:57
said here. And it can't just be, I want to stop that guy, because there are probably other people who would have a better chance of stopping Pierre Polyev. People who don't carry the baggage that Trudeau does going forward, I can think of one, Christian
Corey
31:10
Freeland immediately comes to mind, if that were something that were going to happen. So it's got to be more than that. It's got to be the reason why it's the Justin Trudeau government, the things that he needs to finish, the things that he still wants to do. um
Corey
31:22
but when you look at polyev for sure you're going to want to define him hard and fast with the things that canadians will not like about him certainly he's given you a lot of uh a lot of ammunition by being such a strident you
Corey
31:34
you know almost campus club style conservative for so long unadulterated conservatism you know the purest conservatism possible and
Corey
31:42
and and so yeah i mean he's got all sorts of statements on on abortion and a woman's right to choose he's got all sorts of statements on all sorts of things that you can pull from that I've already rattled off. Things like Bitcoin, things like how he feels about paying
Corey
31:58
paying for the programs that Canadians generally feel pretty good about through COVID-19. And
Corey
32:03
And yeah, throw those all in the window, make sure they're tested, make sure they work with Canadians, define them hard, define them fast. But the other thing that I would say to the prime minister is don't kid yourself. The narrative he's created is a stiletto through the gaps in our armor here we
Corey
32:19
we have a lot of basic services that seem to be floundering and we are doing a bunch of things that are making people uncomfortable because change makes people uncomfortable so
Corey
32:29
so you're going to have to define a universe here
Corey
32:32
let me put it this way maybe as albertans we're pretty used to this and
Corey
32:36
and if i were if i were the liberals i would actually be looking at how some narratives have played out in alberta what's what's worked, what has not worked in the past, because in times of change, when people are fearful, it is pretty alluring to say, we're just going to go back to how it was. We liked how it was. Remember that? How it was was pretty damn sweet. And if the NDP went through this in 2019 here in Alberta, if you're the people who brought in this change, this necessary change, this change that was designed to cope with the changing world, then
Corey
33:04
then you can't get yourself stuck in a box where where it's status quo versus scary change. It's got to be my change versus some other type of change because the status quo no longer exists. That's something that needs to be defined hard and fast by the prime minister. There is no going back to the world Pierre Polyev's trying to sell you here. Look at what's going on in Europe right now with Ukraine. Look at how solar and wind are about to take over all of these other energy sources in the United States. This world is changing. There's no going back. So which forward do you want? Do you want a forward that's inclusive and brings everybody along and is environmentally sustainable and leaves a future for our children? Or do you want this dystopian hellscape where everybody is on their own paying with cryptocurrency for the few things that they can afford in a world that's a total war with itself? Because that's what Pierre Polyev is offering, or
Corey
33:57
that. And so I guess my point would be, if
Corey
34:00
if you sit there and you're just saying nuh-uh about the things Pierre Polyev is saying, you're
Corey
34:06
you're in a lot of trouble. You've got to define a
Corey
34:09
different ballot question. And this does go to Stephen's point. Carter,
Zain
34:12
Carter, let's talk about messaging strategy here for
Zain
34:16
for the liberals. You
Zain
34:18
You know, one of the sins I'd say that progressives
Zain
34:20
progressives have had for a long time is that they feel like people
Zain
34:25
people will simply vote for what makes them angry versus what affects them. And
Zain
34:29
And I think, however, it's probably a combination of the two, right? That there are certain things that offend them. The comments around convoys, for example. example, comments in the past about many different topics that could offend them, that could make them angry, that could rile them up.
Zain
34:48
What is the liberal balance today as you see between anger and
Zain
34:53
and what affects them? Because there has to be a balance, or you may disagree that there isn't a balance here, that the mistake is to go in one lane exclusively. Tell me what What do you think between this model
Zain
35:06
model framework that I'm putting out on the table?
Carter
35:09
I think that there's a group of people who follow politics who get angry about politics. I
Carter
35:12
I think that group of people is inherently very small.
Carter
35:16
Most people don't follow politics. The way that they make up their mind on who they're going to vote for is
Carter
35:22
right? I mean, how much data do I have right now on
Carter
35:24
on how many people make up their mind in the last 24 hours before the election? I have reams of data. that shows us that somewhere in the neighborhood of 80% of voters will make up their mind in the last 24 hours. How are they making their mind up in that moment? Yeah, sure. It could be outrage. We saw that with Lake of Fire when Danielle Smith did Lake of Fire and didn't respond to it. It took a while, but we did get to outrage. More often than not though, and this is what drives I think progressives absolutely crazy. It's not about the outrage. It's not about the very clear to them contrast between someone who's horrible and someone who's fantastic. Instead, it's about what do I get? What's
Carter
36:10
What's the thing? Because the average voter oftentimes boils down to selfishness. And I think that progressives especially fall into the trap of trying to be holier than thou and not offering up the cookie, and instead only offering up the hard hard work that would enable them to get the cookie. So my recommendation, start giving the cookie. It's way easier to get people to vote for you when they want what you're offering. And I'm not seeing a lot of that out of the progressive world.
Zain
36:44
Corey, your take right now, and perhaps that liberal messaging balance, in the most macro of senses, do they need to define him hard and get get that anger machine going and get people riled up about how crazy it is. Case in point, let me give you an example. One of the comments that's been circulating the last couple of days is that why doesn't the left or the liberals or some third party group just say, Pierre Polyev's a white supremacist, that he hangs out with white supremacists? Shouldn't that be enough to just define this guy and get it over and done with?
Zain
37:21
How much energy can you spend on things like that that might get people angry versus, you know, then having to talk about what affects them, so to speak.
Corey
37:31
think you need to be careful that when you're defining him, you're not doing it in a way that's just about shock value. Shock value diminishes over time. So you say white supremacist, yeah, that should be disqualifying. And those words have a lot of charge. But you do that three years out from an election, by the time the election comes, people are going to be somewhat numb to that charge. So when we talk about defining him at this time, it's making people feel things about him, but not salacious, shocking things, just things about his record right there. It's almost Pavlovian. You say Pierre, I say restricting a woman's right to choose. You say Polyev, I say it would kill childcare, universal childcare. childcare and so a lot of what your definition needs to be now is really around that um there's also a stream of work that is really about just wrong footing him over the next bit arrange some votes in the house of commons about canadian
Corey
38:28
let's let's see where pierre polio votes now be careful because you're also giving him an opportunity to clean up his record so you're going to have to make sure you define it in a way that just really clearly defines that that contrast with people and just get them on the record. Show his same old, same old Pierre Poliev.
Corey
38:45
Then you've also got another stream of work that needs to occur as the government, which is just clean your shit up.
Corey
38:51
We've talked a bit about all of the files that the liberals have languishing right now. I want to be clear what I don't mean by this is sitting there and being defensive and talking about the things you're doing badly. I'm talking about getting into the public service and saying, this cannot be a problem in three months. I don't care what you need to do. This is resolved in three months. There is a zero month backlog on passports. We have gotten our programs for newcomers down to reasonable three to six months or whatever would normally be the
Corey
39:19
the case beforehand. We can't do this anymore,
Corey
39:22
right? Right. Because there is there is something in Pierre Polyev's critique that is really worth hearing if you're the liberals, which is if
Corey
39:30
if you can't run the government, that's disqualifying. You know, there is a managerial competence that's expected of governments, fairly or unfairly, it's expected of them.
Corey
39:39
And then then you've got to start getting control of the agenda again. And again, getting control of the agenda does not mean just talking about the things Pierre Polyev wants to talk about. it's talking about the things you want to talk about build the contrast that you want to build and you've got to start building towards that so maybe we'll call that you know four different pieces of work that i've put in front of people but the idea is you can't allow yourself to forget which piece of work is for which purpose you can't get consumed by it your message has got to be your message it can't be about the other stuff you're trying to clean up you
Corey
40:10
you got to define this guy now Now, 2025
Corey
40:14
shock the hell out of people.
Corey
40:15
In that election, do what you got to do.
Corey
40:18
shock right now, I think would be a mistake.
Corey
40:21
There's a limited place for it to get people's attention. But if you've really got those statements that are shocking, not for their content, but because of how you're using your words, save it for the election. Carter,
Zain
40:35
Carter, let's talk about Pierre's strategy to round this out.
Zain
40:38
Can he just continue doing exactly what he has done? done in this race for the next, what,
Zain
40:44
what, three years? And
Zain
40:45
And is there diminishing returns on that, if that is the strategy? So the question is, can he do that? And the question is more specifically, should he do that? What should his game plan be in the most macro sense? Is it just going hard constantly, as he has in this leadership race, scorched earth as the tone, sharp elbows? Or does Does he change tune, certainly may not pivot as we've talked about in terms of policy and conservatism in that sense, but what is the messaging and the contouring and is he showing a different side of himself here, Carter?
Carter
41:22
I wouldn't. I mean, I would continue to do what he's doing. I mean, I think that one of the critiques I was thinking when you were saying we're going to call him a white supremacist, one of the challenges there is that he speaks the way a lot of people want to speak, right?
Carter
41:35
right? Right. The same thing happened with Trump. Right. Trump is the every man that speaks the way that everybody wants to be spoke.
Carter
41:40
You know, his line about the passport offices, his
Carter
41:43
his work around, you
Carter
41:45
you know, the lineups and walking the
Carter
41:47
the walk and talks that he did around all these types of things. If
Carter
41:49
If as long as you keep fucking up, he's going to keep hammering you and
Carter
41:52
and he's going to hammer you in a way that is pretty
Carter
41:55
pretty good. We've all had problems. He's going to step too far. But when he steps too far, then the liberals need to be willing to pounce. right the liberals need to be very careful though because so many of its critiques were solid the part that i really agreed with cory on and again it makes me sad um what
Carter
42:15
what i really agreed with cory about is that um the government has to clean up its own its own act i mean there are some things governments are always going to get screwed on but the good news is that pierre polliev has no credibility when it comes to first nations issues um
Carter
42:30
um so you're not going to get the shit kicked out out of you on First Nations issues. It's the stuff where you're expected to operate as a business, right? As a business would, that
Carter
42:42
that stuff needs to be really tightened up.
Zain
42:45
Corey, any lessons for Pierre as he continues what's probably going to be an ongoing campaign for him? He's probably going to keep that same sort of energy, that same sort of maybe even pace of production of content. What advice would you have for him as he probably does that? Let's just assume that the Liberal NDP deal holds out theoretically for the next three years.
Corey
43:09
Yeah. Well, look, we have a long way to go to the election. I know this has been mentioned, but it's an important point. And there is a question about pacing that needs to occur here.
Corey
43:19
I could have said this about the Liberals as a thing they should do for Pierre Polyev, but I'm going to say it about something Pierre Polyev's got to watch out for. For
Corey
43:26
For the Liberals, it would have been give him enough rope to hang himself.
Corey
43:30
You know, when he really goes out there, he goes out there.
Corey
43:34
For him, it is don't get high on your own supply. Watch yourself. You're not God. I know you've got the support of so much of your party behind you, but your party is not necessarily representative of Canadians as a whole. What resonates with them won't necessarily resonate with Canadians as a whole.
Corey
43:50
You can do wrong. you do not just perfectly land every communication that you put out there and if the wrong one lands at the wrong time with a big enough group of people you are going to cause yourself a world of hurt so watch yourself you've got to check some of your instincts um i think it's impressive that he is able to just sit down and muse and put together a walk and talk or uh you know even you know what i thought was actually pretty ridiculous his you know breakfast with justin trudeau yeah it's impressive intellectually that he can do that does
Corey
44:22
does not mean that that's always the right instinct and he needs to think about polls
Corey
44:27
polls he needs to think about what people actually want to see and what to hear and when he's on message he's he's
Corey
44:33
but he does indulge himself a little too much in my opinion and i think that is an instinct that will not serve him well uh
Corey
44:41
message discipline's a real strength of his stay on it you
Corey
44:44
you know as the situation evolves I'm sure his messaging will evolve.
Corey
44:48
Hold the government to account on things that Canadians are anxious about. Remind Canadians that you were the person who brought these up first. Things like inflation, where look, even the three of us were saying, come
Corey
44:58
come on, you know, this is ridiculous. It's supply side inflation. It's, you know, well, obviously it's become something bigger than that. And just
Corey
45:05
just stick to what you do well, but know that there's a limit to what you do well. There's a limit to what anybody does well. So
Zain
45:12
just be fucking smart,
Corey
45:15
careful, because otherwise you are going to step on the mother of all rakes. It is going to smash your face into pieces, and you
Corey
45:22
risk being the Jeremy Corbyn of the right.
Zain
45:26
We're going to leave that segment there. Moving on to our next segment, our next segment, Seeking Sovereignty from the World. Stephen Carter, the queen, has passed, and she is no more. Tributes from all across the world. I've just left this as an open segment. Stephen Carter, this is the podcast guest book slash memorial book that you can leave a comment for the Queen in the afterlife. You can leave a comment for the royal family. You can leave a comment for what this would mean for the future of Canada. Stephen Carter, the floor is open to you. And I know when I give you such a wide berth that you always take it to an interesting place. So don't let us down, Stephen Carter.
Carter
46:07
mean listen i i think that uh it's
Carter
46:10
it's been very eye-opening first of all you know i mean obviously i'm the oldest i'm not 70 yet i mean this is a someone
Carter
46:17
someone who's been the the queen as it has been a part of our lives for all of our um
Carter
46:26
for the whole time right very few people actually would remember the king before um
Carter
46:30
um so this is a significant shift but
Carter
46:33
but as part of that significant shift there are things that we didn't know right
Carter
46:37
right there were things like an official period of mourning uh that lasts for quite a period of time where
Carter
46:42
where you know um you
Carter
46:44
you know it's been it's kind of been loosened a little bit but at the same time it is a still a very real thing that is impacting uh the workings of government in canada uh
Carter
46:54
uh you know it's one thing to impact the the workings of government in in
Carter
47:00
in in great britain you know but here it's it's it was i'm like i i'm i'm surprised i know i have friends in other campaigns in british columbia that have been told to put the
Carter
47:11
the brakes on their campaigns god they're sitting incumbents right
Carter
47:14
right sitting incumbents and the cities have been told that they are in the official period of mourning and the incumbents should probably be standing down for the period of mourning um well that wasn't expected no one expected that by the
Carter
47:30
know i mean come
Carter
47:33
we got a campaign to win um
Carter
47:36
you know we didn't stand down when my candidate's mother passed like we're we're terrible i'm i'm a horrible person to talk to
Carter
47:43
about this stuff but um no
Carter
47:45
no we we have a you
Carter
47:48
you know it has impact and i i'm certainly more of a monarchist than than cory is not necessarily because i hold the monarchy up as some some great institution that uh you
Carter
48:00
you know that we should you know stylize our lives after i mean i don't want my younger brother sleeping with children but you know this is this is now jesus what
Carter
48:10
what was too far what was the park going
Carter
48:13
okay um but i think that i think
Carter
48:18
having this constitutional monarchy as a way of signing off on things. We talked a lot about your mother-in-law and the role of the lieutenant governor, of a person of independence
Carter
48:31
independence away from the political process that stands not as judge and juror, but as a reasonable fail-safe, just to push things through. I'm more
Carter
48:43
in love with the monarchy, the constitutional monarchy, I think, than I've ever been.
Zain
48:51
That's an interesting point, Corey. There's a lot of chatter about whether now that a
Zain
48:57
very revered person is no longer at the head of the said monarchy, will the halo affect or will the glow still remain? Your thoughts as you've witnessed the last couple of days, seems like it's been a week for the last couple of days of the Queen's passing and the subsequent events thereafter. after.
Corey
49:17
Well, look, I don't care for the monarchy as an institution. It offends basically every sensibility I have. I think it's undemocratic. I think it's illiberal. The idea that somebody is born into this role, and then we put ourselves into pretzels to say, that's a good thing, like Stephen Carter is just doing, makes me nuts.
Corey
49:38
Here's the thing about what you've just said.
Corey
49:41
The idea of her vacating the role by
Corey
49:45
by dying, that's how you vacated, I suppose, and that changing the way we think about it, there's
Corey
49:49
there's going to be some truth to that, I think, in a global sense. I think in Canada, because it would require 10 out of 10 provinces to change, very
Corey
49:56
very unlikely we're going to do anything about it. We also have such a kind of broad constitutional environment that I don't think people are that keen to open the Constitution in such a dramatic way. It
Corey
50:08
It just doesn't seem like, you know, the cost benefit analysis is not there because, you know, we wouldn't become
Corey
50:14
become America. We would probably just make it so the governor general is the president
Carter
50:18
president of Canada or whatever, and it's just chosen by parliament. Done. We're out. Right.
Corey
50:23
But we're not even going to do that. that's that's pretty clear to me however
Corey
50:27
when you think about the monarchy more
Corey
50:29
more generally and i think to steven's point about some
Corey
50:33
some people are surprised by this official period of mourning and all of the things that have to go on well the
Corey
50:39
monarchy has been the backdrop to our lives for our whole lives if you're 70 or under or frankly even a little older than 70 you've only known queen elizabeth it's just sort of been there you haven't ever thought about it you're like a frog and water you learn words you learn that there's a queen i i mean this is a true story i remember watching the naked gun you remember the movie the naked gun in the 80s sure
Corey
51:00
you know it has um you know police squad has to protect the queen of england and i remember watching that and saying
Corey
51:06
why do the americans care about the the queen of of the united kingdom and the queen of canada that doesn't make any sense to me right like it was just a thing that was floating around um and you You just learn about it at such a young age and in such a naive way, and it comes forward. But the death and the change forces you to look at all of these things that we're just soaking in that are absolutely dumb and absurd and ridiculous in a modern democracy, and we say, oh, fuck, yeah, that's actually the way our government works. Oh, my God, we're a monarch. Oh, this is so weird, right? We saw things like the Court of Queen's Bench becoming the Court of King's Bench, Queen's Printer becoming King's Printer. Well, yeah, of course those were named after Queen Elizabeth II because she was the queen. But you don't think about those things as they move through. And all of a sudden, you got to think about them. You
Corey
51:56
You know, I was a senior official of the government of Alberta for many years. When I signed a contract, I didn't sign it Corey Hogan. I signed it Corey Hogan on behalf of Her Majesty the Queen and Right of Alberta, right? Like she is the personification of the state. And those are weird fucking things. And when she dies, the state dies in a funny way and flips over to the new person. And that's why we have these long official periods of mourning. And I was on this committee called
Corey
52:20
called the Demise of the Crown Committee in my time, which existed, you know, and ran long before the Queen actually died, where you thought about everything, the official periods of mourning. Do we have enough black cotton to put on the pictures of the Queen that are in the legislature?
Corey
52:33
Remember, we got to get these flags down at this time and we got to put them up for the accession and so on and so forth.
Corey
52:40
You know, lots of things you're allowed to do, not do, can't make announcements, can't make events. You got to let all of the other public bodies know these things.
Corey
52:46
Carter, that's why some of the other cities, I'm sure, are dealing with this. It just all sort of flows.
Corey
52:52
And 70 years ago, men in black suits with armbands would be walking around a city that was devoid of any life as we all mourned the death of the monarch. But it's 2022 now, and we've got to look at all this stuff now. And it seems nuts. So I think a lot of other places in the world are going to be saying, we've got to change this, or at least contemplating it. I think in Canada, a lot of Canadians are going to say, this is fucking weird. And is this actually what we're all about? And is this what Canada is? But we just don't have the ability to change it. And I do think it's an opportunity for us to be maybe a little less sad and a little more contemplative. I mean, the woman was 96. God love her. But she had a full life there, right?
Corey
53:34
Let's be contemplative about the kind of government we want and the kind of things that we want our system of government to embody.
Corey
53:41
Carter. End of my rant.
Zain
53:42
Good rant, Corey. I mean, Carter, there's so many directions I can take this. I don't want to spend too much time on it Such a
Carter
53:47
a weak rant This is why I'm known as the guy who does the rants
Carter
53:52
Because that was bullshit Getting all weepy
Zain
53:54
for the Queen of England That's right
Carter
53:56
right I am God
Zain
53:58
We could take this in many directions Is now the time to talk about colonialism
Zain
54:02
colonialism During this period of mourning We could talk about what this means For Canada going forward as Corey's alluded to I want to try to keep This in our sort of lane of of do
Zain
54:14
do any of the tools, tactics, strategies of political strategy apply
Zain
54:23
the sense of what does he need to be cautious about? Because he is building a brand, Carter, right? He is trying to communicate
Corey
54:29
communicate- Oh, he's got a brand. Well,
Zain
54:31
Well, this is the thing. He's trying to, in certain cases, both
Zain
54:33
both build it and try to use a bit of a halo effect that he has. Any advice on the honeymoon period, on the messaging, on the overall sort of political strategy or the campaign strategy that one would need to think of that probably has an overlap to his world, Carter?
Carter
54:50
I think it's to be the real man that we haven't met yet. You know, he's always been in the shadow. He's always been a little bit behind the scenes. And then when we saw him make his first public address and the emotion and quiet dignity, I think, that he brought to that address changed the way I think, you know, changed the way I was thinking about him for certain. And I think it will change a lot of people. I mean, you're seeing a group of people slowly, very
Carter
55:19
very slowly, perhaps fall in love with him as the monarch. And it's going to take time, but it needs to be done on television, on TikTok, on mediums that people are paying attention to the great lesson of queen elizabeth was allowing her coronation to be broadcast uh in whatever year that was um this is a uh this is the next thing that we need to see is is people falling in love with charles the way they fell in love with with elizabeth and the only way to do that is to put yourself out there and to to bury yourself i know that cory uh is certainly open to to falling in love with with charles why
Zain
56:00
repeating that over and over again it's
Carter
56:06
people love charles you get paid oh
Carter
56:10
been watching the ground
Zain
56:11
ground cory do you look forward to falling in love with charles on tiktok is that is that what you're looking forward to carter
Corey
56:19
carter is there a gas leak in your house Or
Carter
56:22
I did a lot of outside stuff. I rode a long ways on my bicycle, and I'm pretty tired, if I'm honest. Corey,
Zain
56:30
Corey, messaging, strategy, communications, principles as Charles takes the throne. What do you think?
Corey
56:36
Well, when you're following a popular incumbent, you want to embrace the incumbent. You want to take a lot of that halo effect. And I do think it's an opportunity for people to look at Charles again for the first time. time
Corey
56:48
um obviously if you're of basically my age or older you're going to remember the divorce with diana and the phone call that was leaked uh with camilla subject
Corey
56:59
subject matter of that and then the death of diana and how closed off the royal family seemed and just you
Corey
57:04
you know there's not a lot there's not all good there uh and charles is certainly not the queen in that he also tended to get involved in a bunch more causes some of them a little more fringe frankly and it'll be be interesting to see if he can put that aside and
Corey
57:17
and so if you're charles i guess i would say you want to be loved like your mother you've got to emulate her approach which
Corey
57:25
was largely to stay out of these things things that you have you're a 73 year old man you're set in your ways but you're going to have to act in a different fashion going forward if you're going to capture the imagination of the united kingdom who are going to be looking to give you a shot right like you In the United Kingdom, there's this sense of real
Corey
57:43
real loss. In some ways, when you think about Queen Elizabeth II's tenure, think about all of the colonies that declared independence or left and became part of the broader Commonwealth family and how the United Kingdom has changed as a world power in that time. I mean, arguably, it's not
Corey
58:00
not so much a world power anymore. And this is going to be a moment when Britons will be a little bit anxious about that. They'll be thinking about their place in the world, and they're
Corey
58:09
they're going to have some goodwill
Corey
58:10
goodwill ready for you here.
Corey
58:12
But you could also fuck it up pretty quickly if your, quote unquote, second first impression is not quite what it needs to be. So emulate, not just, you
Corey
58:23
you know, don't just don
Corey
58:24
don yourself in her legacy, but emulate it if
Corey
58:27
if you want to be thought of the same way. Carter, finish this off on
Carter
58:30
think that he has the opportunity to remain in some fashion, if you will, lowercase p political with issues around climate change and children. These
Carter
58:39
These are issues that he's long been associated with, and they're authentic.
Carter
58:45
We've talked about authenticity in politicians for a long time. And I think that Charles really has the opportunity, King Charles, forgive me, to define himself in his authentic role as the leader of Great Britain and the worldwide leader for
Carter
59:04
for issues relating to global warming, climate change, and children.
Corey
59:11
And that's just not his job as monarch. There is an elected government.
Carter
59:17
Okay. Well, I disagree with you because I'm right and you're wrong.
Zain
59:21
we're gonna leave that segment there moving on to our final segment our over under and our lightning round carter some things stay the same and and that is uh we do this for you we do this segment for you steven carter thank
Zain
59:32
overrated or underrated pierre
Zain
59:35
pierre polly has victory some
Zain
59:37
some may say it's overrated because it was going to happen regardless this just now solidifies what we now knew for months underrated you might say the magnitude of it the scope and scale of it where Where do you stand, overrated, underrated, Stephen Carter?
Carter
59:52
I think it's underrated. I think that, you know, watching the media, I want to say overrated because I'm watching the media do their thing, right? Where all of a sudden, this is such an unexpected victory, blah, blah, blah. We all knew he was going to win. The question was by how much. We've known since they kicked Patrick Brown out of the party that he was going to win. So, um, this is simply a, you know, but it is still underrated because he still has this, um, he
Carter
1:00:22
he owns the stage now. And I think that the problem that I'm seeing is that Trudeau needs to figure out how to respond to that. And I think it's going to be super duper hard for Trudeau. Um,
Carter
1:00:31
Um, and that's why I think ultimately, whatever I said was the first choice, um, was the way that I responded. thank
Zain
1:00:39
you carter i really appreciate that cory overrated or underrated pierre paul has victory there's a fucking ghastly yeah
Zain
1:00:48
yeah you're you guys this is you should have recorded a few more episodes while i was away just to get the rust yeah we got rusty
Zain
1:00:56
um so his victory bloodstream at this point yes cory hilarious his
Corey
1:01:01
his victory overrated his victory History overrated. He himself underrated. People have got to stop acting as though him winning the party by so much means anything more than the party is behind him very strongly, which is important. But people are acting as though this means 70
Corey
1:01:18
70% of the conservative party is going to get 70% of the public. And that's obviously not going to be the case. but the
Corey
1:01:25
same skill set that allowed him to get such a hold on his party he is going to be able to apply in the general population the guy is
Corey
1:01:33
is very good at message discipline the guy can talk he can deliver a point and he's got a united conservative machine behind him one that's bigger than it's ever been before and
Corey
1:01:44
and lest we forget that is a conservative machine that will be going up against a liberal government that is going to be quite long in the tooth.
Corey
1:01:53
And that's after the conservatives actually won the popular vote in the last two elections. So yeah, I mean, I am obviously not going to dwell on this notion of, okay, but what about all of his views? Because I think we've seen through Trump, through Doug Ford, through any number of candidates, through Jason Kenney, through Danielle Smith here in Alberta, that
Corey
1:02:14
just because you have those one or two views that a a set of the population we'll see is disqualifying does not mean that the public is going to disqualify you.
Corey
1:02:22
Those days seem to be done.
Corey
1:02:24
So if you say disqualification
Corey
1:02:27
disqualification is not a thing anymore, just use that as a thought exercise.
Corey
1:02:32
What do you think about Pierre Polyev's chances? Well, I think they're pretty good. So I think he himself is being underrated.
Carter
1:02:38
no? Way to stick to one point there the whole way through.
Zain
1:02:40
No, Corey had things to say and he used the over-under in the lightning
Carter
1:02:43
lightning round as he always does
Zain
1:02:44
just say what he needs
Carter
1:02:45
needs to. I've learned a lot.
Zain
1:02:46
He actually remembered. You remembered his answer, Carter, which was nice.
Carter
1:02:49
nice. You remembered his starting point, which was excellent. I've taken a lot. I've learned a lot from his answer. Thank you.
Zain
1:02:54
you. Corey, yes or no, should the liberals run ads against Pierre this month?
Zain
1:03:01
Carter? Define them. Define them hard. Define them fast. Carter, should they spend money? Should they run ads on Pierre this month too early? Or you got to do it?
Carter
1:03:09
I think you've got to do it. I just think you've got to be very careful when you're doing it. you
Carter
1:03:13
don't want to jump too far um
Carter
1:03:15
um and cast him as the devil incarnate uh it's too easy for him to prove that he's not the devil incarnate carter
Corey
1:03:20
carter yeah i agree dial up to devil as you get closer to an election and
Corey
1:03:25
and this is not about shock this is about base facts that you can lay at people's feet about who pierre poliev is carter
Zain
1:03:31
carter it's you're gonna love this it's time for you to make a prediction my good friend predict
Zain
1:03:35
predict for me this i'm
Carter
1:03:36
i'm so good at them predict
Zain
1:03:37
predict for me this does
Zain
1:03:39
does pierre polyev yeah
Zain
1:03:41
endorsed daniel smith before october the 6th
Carter
1:03:49
pierre polyev is about pierre polyev he's
Carter
1:03:52
he's not about daniel he's
Carter
1:03:53
he's selfish and this is who he is interesting
Zain
1:03:56
interesting interesting anything else you want to add in case we need to clip this later on no
Carter
1:04:01
no i think that that will get me into enough hot water in the legal stuff
Zain
1:04:06
Okay. Thank you, Carter. Corey, Pierre
Zain
1:04:09
Pierre Polyev, will he endorse Daniel Smith before October 6th?
Corey
1:04:14
well i keep hearing rumors that he will and that his last trip to alberta there was some suspicion that he might at this point i think this is a pretty good example of what i was talking about though about you
Corey
1:04:25
you know check yourself and think about these things in in a way that's not just about the
Corey
1:04:30
the grandness of pierre polyev and your ability to make things happen but what you're actually trying to do because
Corey
1:04:36
because boy it does not take a lot of imagination to to have daniel smith win in the
Corey
1:04:42
the Alberta Sovereignty Act be received both here in Alberta and more importantly, Canada-wide as this separatist manifesto from a candidate that Pierre Polyev endorsed and have that as somewhat disqualified for many people across the country. So I just don't know what the upside is for you. You can say things like, I'm willing to work with anybody. There's some legitimate grievances Daniel Smith's talking about, but you were trying to be the prime minister. And just
Corey
1:05:09
just think about being the prime minister. Just imagine. I mean, I'm not the first person to say this. I've seen this on Twitter a few times. Imagine the Alberta Sovereignty Act was a thing, and
Corey
1:05:17
and Pierre Polyev was prime minister, but Rachel Notley was premier. Does that seem okay to you? You've got to be thinking about the country as a whole if that's the job you're going for.
Zain
1:05:27
Corey, I'm going to start this final one with you. A
Zain
1:05:30
A very simple yes or no question.
Zain
1:05:33
As of today, as we record, Sunday, September 11th,
Zain
1:05:37
is Piri Paliyev the frontrunner for the next federal election?
Zain
1:05:44
Qualify it. Add a little bit more meat to the bone. You literally said yes or no.
Zain
1:05:49
We're following the rules for once. We're following the rules, Zane. He was so emphatic that I need you to justify it. Lay it on me. Why?
Corey
1:05:58
because of, I mean, how many times am I going to say the same thing? Tired liberal government. The conservatives were already in a position to win the popular vote. He's got his party behind him. People don't care about disqualification anymore. He's a great communicator.
Corey
1:06:11
Great on message, I would say. Okay, communicator.
Corey
1:06:14
Not going to back away
Zain
1:06:15
from that. Yeah, Corey still has some whiplash from the woodworking video. Carter, Pierre
Zain
1:06:23
is he the front runner for the next election? election?
Carter
1:06:29
He can win the next election.
Carter
1:06:32
Right now, I'd say relatively easily if an election were held today. Now, of course, an election isn't held today. An election is held in three and a half years, or maybe
Carter
1:06:44
maybe three years, something like that. Who can remember?
Carter
1:06:48
still think that three years from now, he's still the front runner.
Carter
1:06:52
Keep in mind, The Conservatives have won more votes than the Liberals for the last two elections, and the Liberals got more seats. But we
Carter
1:07:00
we did the rescue of the Liberal Party podcast in 2015. They weren't going anywhere. Get out of here. It wasn't because of us, but we did that podcast, right? We were pointing out that they were in third place at that particular moment, that Mulcair was more likely to win at that time. And the Liberals came back. They aren't this juggernaut that just wins forever.
Carter
1:07:26
forever. That's not who they are. And if they think like that, they're going to lose. And right now, my fear is they're going to lose.
Corey
1:07:34
The thing about when we've talked about this, the Liberals, the last two elections have had a very efficient vote. And
Corey
1:07:39
And efficient votes look great, as
Corey
1:07:41
as they did in the last two federal elections, until they don't, as they did for the Liberals in the last Ontario election. You spread yourself pretty far. You're only winning by a few votes. When you shave 1,000
Corey
1:07:51
,000 votes off across the board,
Corey
1:07:54
I'll see you later. All of a sudden, you're looking at Ignatiev numbers, Dion numbers. It drops very quickly in those scenarios.
Zain
1:08:01
We're going to leave it there. Sarah, that's a wrap on episode 1001 of The Strategist. My name is Zane Veldt. You're with me, as always, Stephen Carter, Corey Hogan, and we'll see you next time.
Corey
1:08:16
And they continue to bounce from one embarrassing situation to the other. I'll tell you something, though, Carter. Yeah. If I was the Green Party president, I'd
Corey
1:08:23
I'd just fucking quit. I wouldn't stick around. I wouldn't put up with this nonsense. They
Carter
1:08:28
You can't give up on a party like the Green Party. They've got sitting MPs. Well, they can't
Corey
1:08:31
can't stay. they can't stay. I mean, the dream is dead.
Carter
1:08:35
Oh, I can't even believe it because the Green Party, it should be the most relevant party in politics today. Tell me I'm wrong. Tell me I'm wrong.
Carter
1:08:44
It's a really unfair question. The question isn't, you know, how much or anything along those lines. I mean, I think the question is how close can Pierre Polyev get to 69? Because, you know, he's been looking for a 69 since he was in high school. this
Carter
1:08:58
this is a this is a real this is a real listen listen
Corey
1:09:02
listen funny line but polyev cannot get 69 percent sheree would have to get 15 16 for that to happen and that would be so fucking embarrassing it's hard for my brain to process
Carter
1:09:12
process could you could you even imagine if you actually put down sheree 15 in your office pool like you'd look like a fucking idiot it's
Corey
1:09:21
it's a good point but she's not going to live forever she's 96 years old for all we know this time next week we will be talking about king charles the third no
Carter
1:09:30
no it's going to be king george the sixth i thought well
Corey
1:09:33
well that's a didn't he say at one point he was going to be for sure
Corey
1:09:36
sure he says that well his mom is alive but the minute she's gone he's going to go with charles you know he's going to go with charles i
Carter
1:09:43
i mean there's precedent i mean elizabeth kept hers right so but i mean i don't like talking this way about the queen frankly it makes me nervous